Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.
Windows shown explicitly: newly generated team recent form targets the latest 10 games; each game below shows the window actually stored in its artifact. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games.
Savant layers shown explicitly: hitter Statcast quality, pitcher Statcast quality, and pitch movement from embedded data/all_players_stats.csv features.
Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | COL 2 - 6 ARI | ARI | 0.660 | scoring_simulation.final_score | True |
| Simulation draw | COL 3 - 5 ARI | ARI | - | organic_score_same_winner | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.8553; empirical=0.5833; weight=0.4200; final=0.7411 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=18; abs=18; home delta=0.1038; away delta=-0.1038 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=1.6500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=1.1836; recent edge=0.3920; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 9.7000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.6600 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_score_same_winner |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 7 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 4.835 | 5.178 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 5 | 5 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 2 | 5 | 0.6600 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis |
| 4 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 2 | 6 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 5 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 2 | 6 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 6 | capped_target | 2 | 6 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 7 | simulation_result | 3 | 5 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.44288626666666675,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.4301587301587302,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.5101587301587301,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.012727536507936565,
"confidence": 0.6147940000000001,
"factors": {
"environmental": 0.9996,
"pitcher_form": 1.0,
"team_form": 1.0,
"situational": 1.03,
"combined": 1.0295880000000002
},
"prediction": "normal_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 8,
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 9.7,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 9.7,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 8,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
}{
"method": "historical_slate_bin_shrinkage",
"sample_size": 84,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 2,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 84,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 177,
"global_sample_size": 473,
"bucket_scope": "pooled_0.08",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5833,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5686,
"sample_weight": 0.6,
"prior_strength": 18.0,
"reliability": 0.8235,
"confidence_cap": 0.78,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.7363,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.6221,
"predicted_side": "home"
}{
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.855345,
"sample_size": 84,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5833,
"empirical_weight": 0.42,
"blended_confidence": 0.741086,
"published_confidence": 0.66,
"published_after_governors": true
}{
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 5,
"sample_weight": 0.0577,
"home_net_margin": 18.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 18.0,
"home_average_margin": 3.6,
"home_run_delta": 0.1038,
"away_run_delta": -0.1038,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 9.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 8.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 1.0
}
]
}{
"applied": true,
"home": {
"team": "ARI",
"games": 119,
"wins": 63,
"losses": 56,
"win_pct": 0.5294117647058824,
"runs_scored": 537,
"runs_allowed": 532,
"run_differential": 5,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.04201680672268908,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 118,
"wins": 46,
"losses": 72,
"win_pct": 0.3898305084745763,
"runs_scored": 568,
"runs_allowed": 678,
"run_differential": -110,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.9322033898305084,
"available": true
},
"run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.9742,
"win_pct_edge": 0.1396,
"quality_edge": 0.9065,
"season_quality_edge": 1.1836,
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
"recent_window": 10,
"season_quality_edge": 1.1836,
"recent_quality_edge": 0.392,
"season_weight": 0.65,
"recent_weight": 0.35,
"recent_reliability": 1.0,
"alignment": "aligned",
"blended_quality_edge": 0.9065
},
"margin_adjustment": 0.3807,
"reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
"margin_adjustment_policy": {
"adjustment": 0.3807,
"cap": 1.4,
"scale": 0.42,
"quality_edge": 0.9065,
"season_quality_edge": 1.1836,
"recent_alignment": "aligned",
"large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
"method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 3.38,
"home_runs": 6.95,
"home_win_probability": 0.8034
}
}{
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 5,
"away_runs": 2,
"probability": 0.033523636853903215
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 2,
"probability": 0.03194819087500459
},
{
"home_runs": 6,
"away_runs": 2,
"probability": 0.031074966490638248
},
{
"home_runs": 5,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.029949008773540058
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.028541552725441875
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.03290328699947106,
"1": 0.05669247337465325,
"2": 0.08629114036868621,
"3": 0.11602770349985043,
"4": 0.13781988050599778,
"5": 0.14461612688517345,
"6": 0.1340529166494481,
"7": 0.10977172615825424,
"8": 0.07940711250375432,
"9": 0.05074380142632844,
"10": 0.02864582129426384,
"11": 0.014285460415995311,
"12": 0.006293350073337883,
"13": 0.00244919984478586
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.12259106238437643,
"1": 0.19463999973609766,
"2": 0.23181119267923206,
"3": 0.20709314665382964,
"4": 0.13877974079993685,
"5": 0.06976143998006423,
"6": 0.02630472830551817,
"7": 0.007440141990197478,
"8": 0.0015785474707473465
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
"variance_multiplier": 1.65,
"variance_floor": 2.75,
"roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"predicted_team": "ARI",
"opponent_team": "COL",
"h2h_net_margin": 18,
"recent_h2h": [
{
"date": "2026-08-10",
"predicted_team_runs": 9,
"opponent_runs": 0,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 9,
"winner": "ARI"
},
{
"date": "2026-05-24",
"predicted_team_runs": 9,
"opponent_runs": 1,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 8,
"winner": "ARI"
},
{
"date": "2026-05-23",
"predicted_team_runs": 5,
"opponent_runs": 4,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 1,
"winner": "ARI"
}
],
"prediction_memory": {
"available": true,
"reason": "verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available",
"verification_policy": "pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final",
"verified_outcome_count": 1,
"consecutive_same_pick_count": 1,
"same_pick_actual_loss_count": 0,
"same_pick_blowout_loss_count": 0,
"prior_predictions": [
{
"date": "20260810",
"away": "COL",
"home": "ARI",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "ARI",
"actual_winner": "ARI",
"actual_margin": 9,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5693,
"artifact": "20260810_COL@ARI.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
}
]
},
"guardrail_predicted_team": "ARI",
"guardrail_opponent_team": "COL",
"output_pre_simulation_winner": "ARI",
"output_opponent_team": "COL",
"simulation_score_winner": "ARI",
"final_score_winner": "ARI",
"pre_simulation_winner": "ARI",
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false
},
"final_prediction_sync": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 6,
"score_text": "COL 2 - 6 ARI",
"winner": "ARI"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "COL 3 - 5 ARI",
"winner": "ARI"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0917,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.567,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 1,
"home_run_delta": -1,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner": "ARI",
"model_winner": "ARI",
"simulation_winner": "ARI",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 4,
"simulation_margin": 2,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 6
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 5
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 4,
"final_margin": 2,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.9065,
"winner": "ARI",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"policy": "recency_uncertainty_shrinkage_v2",
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"home": {
"team": "ARI",
"games": 119,
"wins": 63,
"losses": 56,
"win_pct": 0.5294117647058824,
"runs_scored": 537,
"runs_allowed": 532,
"run_differential": 5,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.04201680672268908,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 118,
"wins": 46,
"losses": 72,
"win_pct": 0.3898305084745763,
"runs_scored": 568,
"runs_allowed": 678,
"run_differential": -110,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.9322033898305084,
"available": true
}
}
}{
"applied": true,
"raw_margin": 3.5698,
"final_margin": 2.0,
"margin_cap": 2.0,
"season_quality_edge": 0.9065,
"reason": "large target margin capped because season quality evidence did not justify a decisive prediction",
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 4.165,
"home_runs": 6.165
}
}{
"applied": true,
"raw_confidence": 0.741086,
"final_confidence": 0.66,
"confidence_cap": 0.66,
"score_gap": 2.7804,
"calibration_sample_size": 84,
"calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5833,
"calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5686,
"calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
"season_quality_edge": 0.9065,
"reasons": [
"unvalidated probabilities are capped for production display",
"local calibration sample has at least 30 games",
"local calibration sample has at least 60 games",
"win-probability calibration cap enforced"
]
}{
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 6,
"score_text": "COL 2 - 6 ARI",
"winner": "ARI"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "COL 3 - 5 ARI",
"winner": "ARI"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0917,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.567,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 1,
"home_run_delta": -1,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner": "ARI",
"model_winner": "ARI",
"simulation_winner": "ARI",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 4,
"simulation_margin": 2,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 6
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 5
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 4,
"final_margin": 2,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.9065,
"winner": "ARI",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}{
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 5,
"confidence": 0.66,
"home_win_probability": 0.66,
"away_win_probability": 0.33999999999999997,
"predicted_score_text": "COL 3 - 5 ARI",
"embedded_savant_score_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded temporal Savant features",
"feature_contract": {
"training_grain": "one player-game row after collapsing granular at-bat rows",
"temporal_rule": "all sl_/ab_/sv_ model features are shifted before the predicted game",
"hitter_signals": [
"xwoba",
"xba",
"xslg",
"barrel_batted_rate",
"hard_hit_percent",
"bat_speed",
"launch_quality",
"walk_rate",
"strikeout_rate"
],
"pitcher_signals": [
"xwoba_allowed",
"barrel_allowed",
"hard_hit_allowed",
"whiff_rate",
"command_score",
"movement_score",
"faced_est_woba",
"faced_strikeout_rate"
]
},
"away": {
"team": "COL",
"original_runs": 2,
"run_delta": 0.1232,
"adjusted_runs": 2,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 31.0,
"quality": -0.14451138617618914,
"contact": -0.2825247189916156,
"power": 0.0013949013660227358,
"discipline": -0.33356738285386395,
"xwoba": 0.3060967741935484,
"recent_xwoba": 0.3060967741935484,
"barrel": 8.329032258064517,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.004347748409189776,
"ab_bat_speed": 70.99155829508183,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.25546954007018646,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "681393",
"player_name": "Connor Norby",
"position": "2B",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.6523577042596178,
"contact": -0.9933297226504683,
"power": -0.45325892540151624,
"discipline": -0.35299799639350843,
"xwoba": 0.282,
"recent_xwoba": 0.282,
"barrel": 7.6,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.20917850803031968,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.23057930107527,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.3099462365591398,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "696100",
"player_name": "Hunter Goodman",
"position": "C",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.31624224373434173,
"contact": 0.002929905793497397,
"power": 1.2202871635888397,
"discipline": -0.8557716179903971,
"xwoba": 0.325,
"recent_xwoba": 0.325,
"barrel": 16.5,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.46650517653871154,
"ab_bat_speed": 74.226365995116,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.3342198581560284,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "678662",
"player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
"position": "SS",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.5900190330945231,
"contact": -0.834719104515205,
"power": -0.43676586690898767,
"discipline": -0.6245776397515529,
"xwoba": 0.271,
"recent_xwoba": 0.271,
"barrel": 6.2,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.7600792429416557,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.73265070643642,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.24824016563146997,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "687597",
"player_name": "Jordan Beck",
"position": "RF",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.3478022507529763,
"contact": -1.1504110302806387,
"power": -0.7916827355412123,
"discipline": -0.7238900192760763,
"xwoba": 0.252,
"recent_xwoba": 0.252,
"barrel": 5.8,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.43022613939566196,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.74407471264368,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2591954022988506,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "664983",
"player_name": "Jake McCarthy",
"position": "LF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": -0.292377147274337,
"contact": -0.04550728393517037,
"power": -0.39838302870473474,
"discipline": -0.27764409432914205,
"xwoba": 0.321,
"recent_xwoba": 0.321,
"barrel": 5.2,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.7139462883804032,
"ab_bat_speed": 67.8560385210995,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.1798780487804878,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "683352",
"player_name": "Mitch Bratt",
"quality": -0.07230986390376845,
"contact": -0.0025423107090742705,
"command": -1.0626269841269842,
"movement": -0.7874067518900997,
"xwoba": 0.31,
"whiff": 16.7,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2673184860119048,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.86666666666667,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.23333333333333334,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006702420300892518
}
},
"home": {
"team": "ARI",
"original_runs": 5,
"run_delta": 0.8588,
"adjusted_runs": 6,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 36.0,
"quality": 0.24302190412013205,
"contact": 0.28393060684277277,
"power": 0.25045386253930024,
"discipline": 0.11507929578106535,
"xwoba": 0.32130555555555557,
"recent_xwoba": 0.32130555555555557,
"barrel": 8.283333333333333,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.20329947300823545,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.30188410402032,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2077994999401215,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "606466",
"player_name": "Ketel Marte",
"position": "2B",
"weight": 5.0,
"quality": 0.7194177389330877,
"contact": 0.8118311940882028,
"power": 0.7527539757298103,
"discipline": 0.2368192719116631,
"xwoba": 0.346,
"recent_xwoba": 0.346,
"barrel": 10.1,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.9423176098343117,
"ab_bat_speed": 73.60847871956649,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.14548611111111112,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "682998",
"player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
"position": "RF",
"weight": 5.0,
"quality": 0.6400318335822403,
"contact": 0.6035376720298214,
"power": 0.8931940839875704,
"discipline": 0.2245126942300855,
"xwoba": 0.34,
"recent_xwoba": 0.34,
"barrel": 11.9,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.9111197749895156,
"ab_bat_speed": 74.58037485681558,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.23164983164983166,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "672515",
"player_name": "Gabriel Moreno",
"position": "DH",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.7556839596076615,
"contact": 1.147248357034632,
"power": 0.3956010395183441,
"discipline": 0.8978266862809198,
"xwoba": 0.371,
"recent_xwoba": 0.371,
"barrel": 7.0,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.09716364750974016,
"ab_bat_speed": 70.51677887426901,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.16469298245614036,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "663457",
"player_name": "Lars Nootbaar",
"position": "LF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.4219540127183756,
"contact": 0.5798191273980392,
"power": 0.5705896836688371,
"discipline": 0.9035823253786635,
"xwoba": 0.329,
"recent_xwoba": 0.329,
"barrel": 9.0,
"ab_hard_contact": 1.1428412924243914,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.00826754385965,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.20350877192982456,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "571448",
"player_name": "Nolan Arenado",
"position": "3B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": -0.42977637815429887,
"contact": -0.5131371505132329,
"power": -0.48248677646013205,
"discipline": 0.1501522166015665,
"xwoba": 0.298,
"recent_xwoba": 0.298,
"barrel": 7.1,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.3453545768216751,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.75528383458646,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.21701030927835052,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "608372",
"player_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano",
"quality": -1.1317987461492598,
"contact": -1.401867059909709,
"command": -0.8379126984126984,
"movement": -0.8119437609808278,
"xwoba": 0.397,
"whiff": 18.3,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2673184860119048,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.86666666666667,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.23333333333333334,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006702420300892518
}
}
},
"fundamental_edge_target_review": {
"applied": false,
"method": "post_score_adjustment_fundamental_edge_review_v1",
"previous_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 6,
"winner_side": "home"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 6,
"winner_side": "home"
},
"signals": {
"season_quality_edge_home_minus_away": 0.9065,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.567,
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0917,
"composite_home_edge": 1.5621,
"existing_home_win_probability": 0.6221,
"refreshed_home_win_probability": 0.7,
"winner_support_before_review": 1.5621
},
"reasons": [
"target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile"
]
},
"confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 6,
"predicted_score_text": "COL 2 - 6 ARI",
"confidence": 0.66,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 6,
"score_text": "COL 2 - 6 ARI",
"winner": "ARI"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "COL 3 - 5 ARI",
"winner": "ARI"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0917,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.567,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 1,
"home_run_delta": -1,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner": "ARI",
"model_winner": "ARI",
"simulation_winner": "ARI",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 4,
"simulation_margin": 2,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 6
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 5
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 4,
"final_margin": 2,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.9065,
"winner": "ARI",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
},
"decision_profile": {
"method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
"winner": "ARI",
"display_confidence": 0.66,
"internal_signal_score": 0.6825,
"internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
"model_pick_probability": 0.66,
"confidence_compression_detected": false,
"moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
"betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
"market_context": null,
"margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
"totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
"winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
"signals": {
"final_margin": 2,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.9065,
"winner_recent_form_edge": 0.392,
"winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0917,
"winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
"blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
"high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
"low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2,
"total_runs_spread": {
"min": 3,
"median": 8,
"max": 16,
"range": 13
}
},
"interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away COL | True | 0.9997 | 0.9997 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home ARI | True | 1.0247 | 1.0247 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF | Cole Carrigg | 136 | 1.0073 | 0.0976 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3340 | 0.2590 | 0.4010 | 5.40 | 33.10 | 86.90 | 16.30 | 24.60 | 20.40 | 11.70 | -1.2857 |
| 1B | Willi Castro | 218 | 1.0039 | 0.0522 | neutral | 0.3100 | 0.2330 | 0.4000 | 8.80 | 39.60 | 87.70 | 18.90 | 30.70 | 27.30 | 8.10 | -0.6571 |
| DH | Mickey Moniak | 179 | 0.9974 | -0.0351 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3010 | 0.2270 | 0.4330 | 11.20 | 42 | 89.30 | 21.70 | 29.20 | 25.20 | 5 | -1.9714 |
| RF | Jordan Beck | 548 | 0.9729 | -0.3614 | neutral | 0.2520 | 0.2180 | 0.3150 | 5.80 | 28.60 | 86.10 | 15.20 | 28.90 | 25.70 | 5 | 0.0857 |
| 2B | Connor Norby | 480 | 0.9617 | -0.5109 | neutral | 0.2820 | 0.1830 | 0.3240 | 7.60 | 36.60 | 87 | 18.80 | 32.70 | 30 | 10.30 | -0.2857 |
| LF | Jake McCarthy | 114 | 0.9995 | -0.0068 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3210 | 0.2760 | 0.4150 | 5.20 | 27.20 | 85.20 | 12 | 22.90 | 17 | 4.50 | -1.3429 |
| C | Hunter Goodman | 68 | 1.0418 | 0.5569 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3250 | 0.2300 | 0.4610 | 16.50 | 45.90 | 90.50 | 18.50 | 36.30 | 33.60 | 8.20 | -1.2000 |
| SS | Ezequiel Tovar | 617 | 0.9724 | -0.3681 | neutral | 0.2710 | 0.2180 | 0.3550 | 6.20 | 33.60 | 87.40 | 17.60 | 29.10 | 25.40 | 5.70 | 0.4857 |
| 3B | Kyle Karros | 126 | 1.0400 | 0.5330 | neutral | 0.3370 | 0.2550 | 0.3960 | 7.40 | 41.60 | 89.70 | 13.30 | 24 | 20.30 | 12.10 | -0.2857 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DH | Gabriel Moreno | 15 | 1.0831 | 1.1078 | neutral | 0.3710 | 0.2950 | 0.4540 | 7 | 42.10 | 89.20 | 11.80 | 15.50 | 14.80 | 11.30 | 0.2571 |
| RF | Corbin Carroll | 18 | 1.0570 | 0.7604 | neutral | 0.3400 | 0.2470 | 0.4370 | 11.90 | 48.60 | 91.60 | 14.20 | 27.70 | 22.60 | 11.40 | -0.1429 |
| LF | Lars Nootbaar | 394 | 1.0345 | 0.4602 | neutral | 0.3290 | 0.2380 | 0.4100 | 9 | 49.30 | 91.60 | 5.80 | 18.60 | 20.60 | 13.70 | 0.7429 |
| 1B | Tim Tawa | 552 | 1.0015 | 0.0198 | neutral | 0.2950 | 0.2340 | 0.3800 | 7.70 | 43.20 | 90 | 11 | 28 | 22.30 | 7.40 | -0.0571 |
| SS | Ildemaro Vargas | 133 | 1.0132 | 0.1764 | neutral | 0.3160 | 0.2860 | 0.3880 | 3.30 | 35.80 | 87.70 | 9.40 | 15.10 | 10 | 5.80 | -0.0286 |
| 3B | Nolan Arenado | 127 | 0.9790 | -0.2798 | neutral | 0.2980 | 0.2320 | 0.3570 | 7.10 | 32.40 | 85.10 | 18.80 | 23.70 | 20.70 | 9.20 | -0.7714 |
| 2B | Ketel Marte | 129 | 1.0717 | 0.9565 | neutral | 0.3460 | 0.2760 | 0.4640 | 10.10 | 42.80 | 90.10 | 13.10 | 21.40 | 15.40 | 7.60 | 0.7143 |
| C | James McCann | 293 | 0.9849 | -0.2012 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2770 | 0.2230 | 0.3770 | 9.10 | 41.60 | 89.70 | 7.20 | 29.10 | 24.80 | 3.70 | -2 |
| CF | Ryan Waldschmidt | 198 | 0.9974 | -0.0346 | neutral | 0.2960 | 0.2470 | 0.3820 | 7.70 | 35 | 88.30 | 17 | 33.60 | 31.10 | 5.30 | -0.7429 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0247,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0247,
"team_espn_average_rank": 206.56,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "672515",
"player_name": "Gabriel Moreno",
"offense_factor": 1.0831,
"quality_score": 1.1078,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "672515",
"espn_id": 42464,
"player_name": "Gabriel Moreno",
"team": "ARI",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 15,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 15,
"gp_value": 91.0,
"gp_rank": 175,
"ab_value": 322.0,
"ab_rank": 143,
"r_value": 49.0,
"r_rank": 114,
"h_value": 98.0,
"h_rank": 91,
"avg_value": 0.3043478,
"avg_rank": 8.0,
"2b_value": 22.0,
"2b_rank": 49,
"3b_value": 1.0,
"3b_rank": 114,
"hr_value": 8.0,
"hr_rank": 189,
"rbi_value": 52.0,
"rbi_rank": 84,
"tb_value": 146.0,
"tb_rank": 935,
"bb_value": 43.0,
"bb_rank": 73,
"so_value": 55.0,
"so_rank": 235,
"sb_value": 4.0,
"sb_rank": 177,
"obp_value": 0.3846153,
"obp_rank": "8",
"slg_value": 0.4534161,
"slg_rank": "49",
"ops_value": 0.8380314,
"ops_rank": 57.0,
"war_value": 4.09,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 304.0,
"k_percent": 14.8,
"bb_percent": 11.3,
"woba": 0.362,
"xwoba": 0.371,
"xba": 0.295,
"xslg": 0.454,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 42.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 11.8,
"whiff_percent": 15.5,
"swing_percent": 41.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.2463,
"regression_edge": 0.2571,
"xwoba_edge": 1.9714,
"xba_edge": 1.6571,
"xslg_edge": 1.2143,
"barrel_edge": 0.0444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6071,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.24,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.85,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "682998",
"player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
"offense_factor": 1.057,
"quality_score": 0.7604,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "682998",
"espn_id": 42404,
"player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
"team": "ARI",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 18,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 18,
"gp_value": 116.0,
"gp_rank": 30,
"ab_value": 436.0,
"ab_rank": 39,
"r_value": 72.0,
"r_rank": 17,
"h_value": 105.0,
"h_rank": 63,
"avg_value": 0.2408256,
"avg_rank": 107.0,
"2b_value": 24.0,
"2b_rank": 26,
"3b_value": 13.0,
"3b_rank": 1,
"hr_value": 16.0,
"hr_rank": 68,
"rbi_value": 55.0,
"rbi_rank": 66,
"tb_value": 203.0,
"tb_rank": 291,
"bb_value": 57.0,
"bb_rank": 27,
"so_value": 113.0,
"so_rank": 44,
"sb_value": 16.0,
"sb_rank": 33,
"obp_value": 0.335984,
"obp_rank": "71",
"slg_value": 0.4655963,
"slg_rank": "38",
"ops_value": 0.8015803,
"ops_rank": 109.0,
"war_value": 3.93,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 417.0,
"k_percent": 22.6,
"bb_percent": 11.4,
"woba": 0.345,
"xwoba": 0.34,
"xba": 0.247,
"xslg": 0.437,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 11.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 48.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.2,
"whiff_percent": 27.7,
"swing_percent": 45.5
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.9075,
"regression_edge": -0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0857,
"xba_edge": 0.2857,
"xslg_edge": 0.9714,
"barrel_edge": 1.1333,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.5357,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.2,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.75,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "663457",
"player_name": "Lars Nootbaar",
"offense_factor": 1.0345,
"quality_score": 0.4602,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "663457",
"espn_id": 4448736,
"player_name": "Lars Nootbaar",
"team": "ARI",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 394,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 394,
"gp_value": 54.0,
"gp_rank": 341,
"ab_value": 178.0,
"ab_rank": 296,
"r_value": 24.0,
"r_rank": 273,
"h_value": 40.0,
"h_rank": 301,
"avg_value": 0.2247191,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 9.0,
"2b_rank": 256,
"3b_value": 1.0,
"3b_rank": 114,
"hr_value": 3.0,
"hr_rank": 335,
"rbi_value": 17.0,
"rbi_rank": 329,
"tb_value": 60.0,
"tb_rank": 1790,
"bb_value": 29.0,
"bb_rank": 168,
"so_value": 43.0,
"so_rank": 292,
"sb_value": 1.0,
"sb_rank": 304,
"obp_value": 0.3317307,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.3370786,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.6688093,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.02,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 145.0,
"k_percent": 20.6,
"bb_percent": 13.7,
"woba": 0.303,
"xwoba": 0.329,
"xba": 0.238,
"xslg": 0.41,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 49.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 5.8,
"whiff_percent": 18.6,
"swing_percent": 36.5
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.6909,
"regression_edge": 0.7429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.7714,
"xba_edge": 0.0286,
"xslg_edge": 0.5857,
"barrel_edge": 0.4889,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.6357,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.2,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.05,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "694374",
"player_name": "Tim Tawa",
"offense_factor": 1.0015,
"quality_score": 0.0198,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "694374",
"espn_id": 4345192,
"player_name": "Tim Tawa",
"team": "ARI",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 552,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 552,
"gp_value": 63.0,
"gp_rank": 306,
"ab_value": 170.0,
"ab_rank": 312,
"r_value": 21.0,
"r_rank": 305,
"h_value": 39.0,
"h_rank": 306,
"avg_value": 0.2294117,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 8.0,
"2b_rank": 275,
"3b_value": 0.0,
"3b_rank": 263,
"hr_value": 6.0,
"hr_rank": 241,
"rbi_value": 26.0,
"rbi_rank": 253,
"tb_value": 65.0,
"tb_rank": 1830,
"bb_value": 14.0,
"bb_rank": 315,
"so_value": 43.0,
"so_rank": 292,
"sb_value": 4.0,
"sb_rank": 177,
"obp_value": 0.2834224,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.3823529,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.6657753,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": -0.4,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 117.0,
"k_percent": 22.3,
"bb_percent": 7.4,
"woba": 0.297,
"xwoba": 0.295,
"xba": 0.234,
"xslg": 0.38,
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"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.9479,
"regression_edge": 0.0857,
"xwoba_edge": -1.4286,
"xba_edge": -0.5429,
"xslg_edge": -0.7714,
"barrel_edge": -0.2222,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.3214,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.0,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.7833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "681393",
"player_name": "Connor Norby",
"offense_factor": 0.9617,
"quality_score": -0.5109,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "681393",
"espn_id": 4417606,
"player_name": "Connor Norby",
"team": "COL",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 480,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 480,
"gp_value": 65.0,
"gp_rank": 295,
"ab_value": 200.0,
"ab_rank": 274,
"r_value": 17.0,
"r_rank": 346,
"h_value": 41.0,
"h_rank": 297,
"avg_value": 0.205,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 12.0,
"2b_rank": 191,
"3b_value": 0.0,
"3b_rank": 263,
"hr_value": 4.0,
"hr_rank": 294,
"rbi_value": 16.0,
"rbi_rank": 335,
"tb_value": 65.0,
"tb_rank": 1896,
"bb_value": 24.0,
"bb_rank": 202,
"so_value": 70.0,
"so_rank": 166,
"sb_value": 6.0,
"sb_rank": 133,
"obp_value": 0.3133047,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.325,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.6383047,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": -0.15,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 225.0,
"k_percent": 30.0,
"bb_percent": 10.3,
"woba": 0.292,
"xwoba": 0.282,
"xba": 0.183,
"xslg": 0.324,
"sweet_spot_percent": 29.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 36.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.0,
"launch_angle_avg": 18.8,
"whiff_percent": 32.7,
"swing_percent": 49.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.5475,
"regression_edge": -0.2857,
"xwoba_edge": -0.5714,
"xba_edge": -1.5429,
"xslg_edge": -0.6429,
"barrel_edge": 0.1778,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.1786,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.64,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.5833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "664983",
"player_name": "Jake McCarthy",
"offense_factor": 0.9995,
"quality_score": -0.0068,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "664983",
"espn_id": 41197,
"player_name": "Jake McCarthy",
"team": "COL",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 114,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 114,
"gp_value": 104.0,
"gp_rank": 123,
"ab_value": 372.0,
"ab_rank": 109,
"r_value": 57.0,
"r_rank": 71,
"h_value": 114.0,
"h_rank": 38,
"avg_value": 0.3064516,
"avg_rank": 5.0,
"2b_value": 25.0,
"2b_rank": 15,
"3b_value": 7.0,
"3b_rank": 2,
"hr_value": 13.0,
"hr_rank": 103,
"rbi_value": 67.0,
"rbi_rank": 31,
"tb_value": 192.0,
"tb_rank": 366,
"bb_value": 19.0,
"bb_rank": 246,
"so_value": 69.0,
"so_rank": 171,
"sb_value": 20.0,
"sb_rank": 19,
"obp_value": 0.3433583,
"obp_rank": "54",
"slg_value": 0.516129,
"slg_rank": "16",
"ops_value": 0.8594873,
"ops_rank": 38.0,
"war_value": 1.62,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 319.0,
"k_percent": 17.0,
"bb_percent": 4.5,
"woba": 0.368,
"xwoba": 0.321,
"xba": 0.276,
"xslg": 0.415,
"sweet_spot_percent": 39.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 27.2,
"exit_velocity_avg": 85.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.0,
"whiff_percent": 22.9,
"swing_percent": 57.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.2106,
"regression_edge": -1.3429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.5429,
"xba_edge": 1.1143,
"xslg_edge": 0.6571,
"barrel_edge": -0.3556,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.5214,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.36,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.9833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "696100",
"player_name": "Hunter Goodman",
"offense_factor": 1.0418,
"quality_score": 0.5569,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "696100",
"espn_id": 4416591,
"player_name": "Hunter Goodman",
"team": "COL",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 68,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 68,
"gp_value": 109.0,
"gp_rank": 99,
"ab_value": 407.0,
"ab_rank": 81,
"r_value": 67.0,
"r_rank": 30,
"h_value": 103.0,
"h_rank": 76,
"avg_value": 0.2530712,
"avg_rank": 80.0,
"2b_value": 16.0,
"2b_rank": 129,
"3b_value": 0.0,
"3b_rank": 263,
"hr_value": 34.0,
"hr_rank": 3,
"rbi_value": 69.0,
"rbi_rank": 24,
"tb_value": 221.0,
"tb_rank": 740,
"bb_value": 38.0,
"bb_rank": 104,
"so_value": 151.0,
"so_rank": 6,
"sb_value": 5.0,
"sb_rank": 156,
"obp_value": 0.3207964,
"obp_rank": "92",
"slg_value": 0.5429975,
"slg_rank": "10",
"ops_value": 0.8637939,
"ops_rank": 102.0,
"war_value": 2.38,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 390.0,
"k_percent": 33.6,
"bb_percent": 8.2,
"woba": 0.367,
"xwoba": 0.325,
"xba": 0.23,
"xslg": 0.461,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 16.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 45.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 18.5,
"whiff_percent": 36.3,
"swing_percent": 54.0
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.8429,
"regression_edge": -1.2,
"xwoba_edge": 0.6571,
"xba_edge": -0.2,
"xslg_edge": 1.3143,
"barrel_edge": 2.1556,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.15,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.76,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.2167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "678662",
"player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
"offense_factor": 0.9724,
"quality_score": -0.3681,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "678662",
"espn_id": 4905919,
"player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
"team": "COL",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 617,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 617,
"gp_value": 109.0,
"gp_rank": 99,
"ab_value": 368.0,
"ab_rank": 114,
"r_value": 40.0,
"r_rank": 163,
"h_value": 75.0,
"h_rank": 159,
"avg_value": 0.2038043,
"avg_rank": 150.0,
"2b_value": 19.0,
"2b_rank": 83,
"3b_value": 0.0,
"3b_rank": 263,
"hr_value": 9.0,
"hr_rank": 167,
"rbi_value": 37.0,
"rbi_rank": 176,
"tb_value": 121.0,
"tb_rank": 1269,
"bb_value": 23.0,
"bb_rank": 213,
"so_value": 102.0,
"so_rank": 62,
"sb_value": 5.0,
"sb_rank": 156,
"obp_value": 0.25,
"obp_rank": "153",
"slg_value": 0.3288043,
"slg_rank": "147",
"ops_value": 0.5788043,
"ops_rank": 6.0,
"war_value": -0.89,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 348.0,
"k_percent": 25.4,
"bb_percent": 5.7,
"woba": 0.254,
"xwoba": 0.271,
"xba": 0.218,
"xslg": 0.355,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.4,
"launch_angle_avg": 17.6,
"whiff_percent": 29.1,
"swing_percent": 62.0
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.5071,
"regression_edge": 0.4857,
"xwoba_edge": -0.8857,
"xba_edge": -0.5429,
"xslg_edge": -0.2,
"barrel_edge": -0.1333,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.6071,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.48,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.2833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "691720",
"player_name": "Kyle Karros",
"offense_factor": 1.04,
"quality_score": 0.533,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "691720",
"espn_id": 5203102,
"player_name": "Kyle Karros",
"team": "COL",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 126,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 126,
"gp_value": 111.0,
"gp_rank": 79,
"ab_value": 337.0,
"ab_rank": 135,
"r_value": 57.0,
"r_rank": 71,
"h_value": 89.0,
"h_rank": 117,
"avg_value": 0.2640949,
"avg_rank": 60.0,
"2b_value": 20.0,
"2b_rank": 68,
"3b_value": 2.0,
"3b_rank": 56,
"hr_value": 9.0,
"hr_rank": 167,
"rbi_value": 42.0,
"rbi_rank": 140,
"tb_value": 140.0,
"tb_rank": 798,
"bb_value": 47.0,
"bb_rank": 53,
"so_value": 81.0,
"so_rank": 124,
"sb_value": 5.0,
"sb_rank": 156,
"obp_value": 0.3613231,
"obp_rank": "28",
"slg_value": 0.4154302,
"slg_rank": "86",
"ops_value": 0.7767533,
"ops_rank": 114.0,
"war_value": 1.52,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 335.0,
"k_percent": 20.3,
"bb_percent": 12.1,
"woba": 0.347,
"xwoba": 0.337,
"xba": 0.255,
"xslg": 0.396,
"sweet_spot_percent": 40.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 41.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.7,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.3,
"whiff_percent": 24.0,
"swing_percent": 44.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.6662,
"regression_edge": -0.2857,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0,
"xba_edge": 0.5143,
"xslg_edge": 0.3857,
"barrel_edge": 0.1333,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.5357,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.44,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.2667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away COL | True | 56 | -1.2195 | 1 | 1.1037 | 0.9091 | 0.9380 | 1.2200 | negative_pitcher_regression | 0.3970 | 0.3480 | 13.50 | 5.80 | 18.30 | 13.80 | 43.90 | |
| Home ARI | True | 251 | -0.1146 | 0.4500 | 1.0097 | 0.9645 | 1.0531 | 0.9984 | positive_pitcher_regression | 0.3100 | 0.3430 | 17.20 | 14.80 | 16.70 | 7.30 | 36.60 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away COL | True | None | 82 | 88.31 | 2307 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0897 | |
| Home ARI | True | None | 65 | 86.96 | 2322 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1654 |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 1.0044 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 1.1037 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | 1.1049 |
{
"applied": true,
"home_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "683352",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 51.0,
"k_percent": 17.2,
"bb_percent": 14.8,
"woba": 0.343,
"xwoba": 0.31,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 36.6,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6828,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.9533,
"whiff_percent": 16.7,
"swing_percent": 46.5
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.1092,
"command_and_miss": -1.0564,
"regression_edge": 0.9429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0286,
"barrel_edge": -0.0444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.1571,
"whiff_edge": -1.2571,
"bb_edge": -1.475,
"pitch_design_score": -0.1654
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "683352",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 65,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 65,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 86.95877120963327,
"release_spin_rate": 2321.7123852095115,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 65,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 86.95877120963327,
"release_spin_rate": 2321.7123852095115,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 86.9588,
"release_spin_rate": 2321.7124,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.1654,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.1812,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.1146,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0097,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9645,
"walk_factor": 1.0531,
"homer_factor": 0.9984,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.033,
"regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "683352",
"espn_id": 5123768,
"player_name": "Mitch Bratt",
"team": "ARI",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 251,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 251,
"gp_value": 6.0,
"gp_rank": 558,
"gs_value": 6.0,
"gs_rank": 188,
"qs_value": 1.0,
"qs_rank": 166,
"era_value": 3.9036,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 1.0,
"w_rank": 368,
"l_value": 1.0,
"l_rank": 381,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 27.2,
"ip_rank": 406,
"h_value": 24.0,
"h_rank": 421,
"er_value": 12.0,
"er_rank": 412,
"hr_value": 4.0,
"hr_rank": 320,
"bb_value": 18.0,
"bb_rank": 264,
"k_value": 21.0,
"k_rank": 436,
"k_per_9_value": 6.8313255,
"k_per_9_rank": 28,
"whip_value": 1.518,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.43,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "608372",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 372.0,
"k_percent": 13.5,
"bb_percent": 5.8,
"woba": 0.348,
"xwoba": 0.397,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 13.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.9,
"avg_best_speed": 80.1772,
"avg_hyper_speed": 95.2261,
"whiff_percent": 18.3,
"swing_percent": 45.9
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -1.5599,
"command_and_miss": -0.7643,
"regression_edge": -1.4,
"xwoba_edge": -2.4571,
"barrel_edge": -1.4889,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.8857,
"whiff_edge": -1.0286,
"bb_edge": 0.775,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0897
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "608372",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 82,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.3097288813512,
"release_spin_rate": 2307.0871012543676,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.3097288813512,
"release_spin_rate": 2307.0871012543676,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.3097,
"release_spin_rate": 2307.0871,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0897,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.6408,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -1.2195,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.1037,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9091,
"walk_factor": 0.938,
"homer_factor": 1.22,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.049,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "608372",
"espn_id": 4142423,
"player_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano",
"team": "COL",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 56,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 56,
"gp_value": 20.0,
"gp_rank": 342,
"gs_value": 20.0,
"gs_rank": 71,
"qs_value": 6.0,
"qs_rank": 80,
"era_value": 4.5139,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 11.0,
"w_rank": 9,
"l_value": 5.0,
"l_rank": 108,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 107.2,
"ip_rank": 82,
"h_value": 110.0,
"h_rank": 56,
"er_value": 54.0,
"er_rank": 47,
"hr_value": 22.0,
"hr_rank": 10,
"bb_value": 26.0,
"bb_rank": 155,
"k_value": 61.0,
"k_rank": 168,
"k_per_9_value": 5.099071,
"k_per_9_rank": 55,
"whip_value": 1.2631,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 2.01,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 1.0044,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 1.1037,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": 1.1049
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 3.808,
"home_runs": 5.986
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 3.8246,
"home_runs": 6.6067,
"home_win_probability": 0.7564
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away COL | 4-6 | 0.400 | 5.30 | 5.90 | -6 | 2L | hot | weak |
| Home ARI | 6-4 | 0.600 | 5 | 3.90 | 11 | 2W | average | average |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away COL | 46-72 | 0.390 | -110 | -0.932 | True |
| Home ARI | 63-56 | 0.529 | 5 | 0.042 | True |
| Signal | - | - | 0.974 | 0.906 | applied=True |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | COL @ ARI | 0 - 9 | ARI | 9 | blowout |
| 2026-05-24 | COL @ ARI | 1 - 9 | ARI | 8 | blowout |
| 2026-05-23 | COL @ ARI | 4 - 5 | ARI | 1 | close |
| 2026-05-22 | COL @ ARI | 3 - 2 | COL | 1 | close |
| 2026-05-21 | COL @ ARI | 1 - 2 | ARI | 1 | close |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target COL | - | - | 2 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target ARI | - | - | 6 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized COL | 31 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| Player finalized ARI | 36 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Player model fractional COL | 31.30 | 7.89 | 4.14 | 1.19 | 4.11 | 2.66 | 8.50 |
| Player model fractional ARI | 33.10 | 8.72 | 4.59 | 1.18 | 5.06 | 3.05 | 6.93 |
| Simulation box COL | 32 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Simulation box ARI | 33 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 12 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away COL | Starter | Tomoyuki Sugano | 5.20 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 4.90 | 1.26 | True |
| Away COL | Middle Reliever | Brennan Bernardino | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2.78 | 1.08 | True |
| Away COL | Middle Reliever | Jordan Romano | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4.60 | 1.45 | True |
| Away COL | Middle Reliever | Juan Mejia | 0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.98 | 1.50 | True |
| Home ARI | Starter | Mitch Bratt | 4.20 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.22 | 1.44 | True |
| Home ARI | Middle Reliever | Brandyn Garcia | 1.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.67 | 1.10 | True |
| Home ARI | Middle Reliever | Jonathan Loáisiga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.61 | 1.52 | True |
| Home ARI | Middle Reliever | Juan Morillo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.10 | 0.85 | True |
| Home ARI | Middle Reliever | Kevin Ginkel | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3.27 | 1.14 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home | ARI | batter | 2B | Ketel Marte | worse | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | predicted_AB | -2.0600 | deboost | worse |
| away | COL | batter | CF | Cole Carrigg | worse | 12 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 8 | predicted_AB | -1.4490 | deboost | worse |
| home | ARI | batter | 3B | Nolan Arenado | better | 11 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 3 | predicted_RBI | 1.3500 | boost | better |
| home | ARI | batter | CF | Ryan Waldschmidt | better | 9 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 3 | predicted_AB | -1.3210 | deboost | worse |
| home | ARI | batter | 1B | Tim Tawa | worse | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | predicted_SO | 1.2320 | boost | worse |
| away | COL | batter | 3B | Kyle Karros | better | 9 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 3 | predicted_H | 1.2000 | boost | better |
| home | ARI | batter | C | James McCann | worse | 10 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 7 | predicted_H | -1.1600 | deboost | worse |
| away | COL | batter | RF | Jordan Beck | worse | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | predicted_AB | 1.1470 | boost | better |
| away | COL | batter | 1B | Willi Castro | worse | 9 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 6 | predicted_SO | -1.1000 | deboost | better |
| home | ARI | batter | SS | Ildemaro Vargas | better | 12 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 4 | predicted_H | 1.0430 | boost | better |
| home | ARI | batter | RF | Corbin Carroll | worse | 12 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 10 | predicted_SO | 1.0260 | boost | worse |
| away | COL | pitcher | Starter | Tomoyuki Sugano | neutral | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SO | 1.0000 | boost | better |
| away | COL | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Juan Mejia | worse | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | predicted_SO | -1.0000 | deboost | worse |
| home | ARI | pitcher | Starter | Mitch Bratt | worse | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | predicted_H | 1.0000 | boost | worse |
| home | ARI | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Kevin Ginkel | better | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | predicted_H | -1.0000 | deboost | better |
| away | COL | batter | DH | Mickey Moniak | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 10 | predicted_H | -0.9490 | deboost | worse |
| away | COL | batter | SS | Ezequiel Tovar | worse | 9 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 7 | predicted_SO | -0.9430 | deboost | better |
| away | COL | batter | C | Hunter Goodman | worse | 10 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 7 | predicted_H | -0.8200 | deboost | worse |
| away | COL | batter | LF | Jake McCarthy | better | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 4 | predicted_2B | 0.7450 | boost | better |
| away | COL | batter | 2B | Connor Norby | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 8 | predicted_BB | 0.6250 | boost | better |
| home | ARI | batter | DH | Gabriel Moreno | worse | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | predicted_RBI | -0.5710 | deboost | worse |
| home | ARI | batter | LF | Lars Nootbaar | better | 11 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 5 | predicted_R | 0.5560 | boost | better |
| home | ARI | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Brandyn Garcia | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.1000 | boost | better |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Tomoyuki Sugano |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -1.2195 |
| ESPN Rank | 56 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0897 |
| Avg Velo | 88.3097 |
| Avg Spin | 2307.0871 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 5.2000 |
| Pre ER | 3 |
| Pre H | 6 |
| Pre BB | 2 |
| Pre SO | 9 |
| Season ERA | 4.5139 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2632 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.3830 |
| Recent Avg IP | 5.6670 |
| Last Start IP | 5 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 128,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.3906,
"runs_scored": 621.0,
"runs_allowed": 737.0,
"run_differential": -116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.9062,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8516,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7578,
"offense_index": 1.0801,
"defense_index": 0.7801,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_pct": 0.4,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.9,
"run_differential": -6.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.239
},
"opponent": {
"team": "ARI",
"games": 128,
"wins": 68,
"losses": 60,
"win_pct": 0.5312,
"runs_scored": 593.0,
"runs_allowed": 571.0,
"run_differential": 22.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.1719,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6328,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4609,
"offense_index": 1.0314,
"defense_index": 1.0069,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 11.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0826
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.3216,
"offense_edge": 0.0801,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0314,
"defense_strength": -0.2199,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0069,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9793,
"run_prevention": 1.0431,
"strikeout": 0.9878
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "608372",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "608372",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 372.0,
"k_percent": 13.5,
"bb_percent": 5.8,
"woba": 0.348,
"xwoba": 0.397,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 13.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.9,
"avg_best_speed": 80.1772,
"avg_hyper_speed": 95.2261,
"whiff_percent": 18.3,
"swing_percent": 45.9
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -1.5599,
"command_and_miss": -0.7643,
"regression_edge": -1.4,
"xwoba_edge": -2.4571,
"barrel_edge": -1.4889,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.8857,
"whiff_edge": -1.0286,
"bb_edge": 0.775,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0897
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "608372",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 82,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.3097288813512,
"release_spin_rate": 2307.0871012543676,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.3097288813512,
"release_spin_rate": 2307.0871012543676,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.3097,
"release_spin_rate": 2307.0871,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0897,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.6408,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -1.2195,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.1037,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9091,
"walk_factor": 0.938,
"homer_factor": 1.22,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.049,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "608372",
"espn_id": 4142423,
"player_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano",
"team": "COL",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 56,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 56,
"gp_value": 20.0,
"gp_rank": 342,
"gs_value": 20.0,
"gs_rank": 71,
"qs_value": 6.0,
"qs_rank": 80,
"era_value": 4.5139,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 11.0,
"w_rank": 9,
"l_value": 5.0,
"l_rank": 108,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 107.2,
"ip_rank": 82,
"h_value": 110.0,
"h_rank": 56,
"er_value": 54.0,
"er_rank": 47,
"hr_value": 22.0,
"hr_rank": 10,
"bb_value": 26.0,
"bb_rank": 155,
"k_value": 61.0,
"k_rank": 168,
"k_per_9_value": 5.099071,
"k_per_9_rank": 55,
"whip_value": 1.2631,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 2.01,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 1.1037,
"adjusted": 3
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 6.0,
"factor": 1.1037,
"adjusted": 7
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.938,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.2,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 0.9091,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 54.0,
"ER": 31,
"H": 59,
"BB": 11,
"SO": 33,
"HR": 13,
"ERA": 5.166666666666667,
"WHIP": 1.2962962962962963,
"K9": 5.5,
"HR9": 2.1666666666666665,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 3,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-05T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "608372",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 82,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.3097288813512,
"release_spin_rate": 2307.0871012543676,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.3097288813512,
"release_spin_rate": 2307.0871012543676,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.3097,
"release_spin_rate": 2307.0871,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0897,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.6408,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 20.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8,
"prior_weight": 0.2
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "608372",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 20,
"reference_playing_time": 5.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 28.1,
"ER": 16.0,
"R": 16.0,
"H": 30.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 15.0,
"HR": 8.0,
"BF": 116.0,
"Pitches": 423.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 3.2,
"R": 3.2,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 0.8,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 1.6,
"BF": 23.2,
"Pitches": 84.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.0824,
"WHIP": 1.2,
"ER_per_IP": 0.56471,
"H_per_IP": 1.05882,
"BB_per_IP": 0.14118,
"SO_per_IP": 0.52941,
"HR_per_IP": 0.28235
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 54.0,
"ER": 31.0,
"R": 33.0,
"H": 59.0,
"BB": 11.0,
"SO": 33.0,
"HR": 13.0,
"BF": 229.0,
"Pitches": 877.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 3.1,
"R": 3.3,
"H": 5.9,
"BB": 1.1,
"SO": 3.3,
"HR": 1.3,
"BF": 22.9,
"Pitches": 87.7
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.1667,
"WHIP": 1.2963,
"ER_per_IP": 0.57407,
"H_per_IP": 1.09259,
"BB_per_IP": 0.2037,
"SO_per_IP": 0.61111,
"HR_per_IP": 0.24074
}
},
"season": {
"games": 20,
"totals": {
"IP": 107.2,
"ER": 54.0,
"R": 56.0,
"H": 110.0,
"BB": 26.0,
"SO": 61.0,
"HR": 22.0,
"BF": 451.0,
"Pitches": 1718.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 2.7,
"R": 2.8,
"H": 5.5,
"BB": 1.3,
"SO": 3.05,
"HR": 1.1,
"BF": 22.55,
"Pitches": 85.9
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.5139,
"WHIP": 1.2632,
"ER_per_IP": 0.50155,
"H_per_IP": 1.02167,
"BB_per_IP": 0.24149,
"SO_per_IP": 0.56656,
"HR_per_IP": 0.20433
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_ER": 3.003,
"predicted_H": 5.769,
"predicted_BB": 1.206,
"predicted_SO": 3.555,
"predicted_HR": 1.278,
"predicted_ERA": 4.8959,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2637
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4345,
"form_weight": 0.5655,
"form_reliability": 0.8,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 20.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8,
"prior_weight": 0.2
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 5.2,
"form": 5.2,
"final": 5.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 3.003,
"final": 3.0017,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 6.0,
"form": 5.769,
"final": 5.8694,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.206,
"final": 1.551,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 8.0,
"form": 3.555,
"final": 5.4864,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.278,
"final": 0.7227,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.8959,
"final": 4.8959,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2637,
"final": 1.2637,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Brennan Bernardino |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0786 |
| ESPN Rank | 100 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 2.6434 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1748 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 128,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.3906,
"runs_scored": 621.0,
"runs_allowed": 737.0,
"run_differential": -116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.9062,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8516,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7578,
"offense_index": 1.0801,
"defense_index": 0.7801,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_pct": 0.4,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.9,
"run_differential": -6.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.239
},
"opponent": {
"team": "ARI",
"games": 128,
"wins": 68,
"losses": 60,
"win_pct": 0.5312,
"runs_scored": 593.0,
"runs_allowed": 571.0,
"run_differential": 22.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.1719,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6328,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4609,
"offense_index": 1.0314,
"defense_index": 1.0069,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 11.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0826
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.3216,
"offense_edge": 0.0801,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0314,
"defense_strength": -0.2199,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0069,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9793,
"run_prevention": 1.0431,
"strikeout": 0.9878
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "657514",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "657514",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 168.0,
"k_percent": 18.0,
"bb_percent": 7.0,
"woba": 0.288,
"xwoba": 0.305,
"sweet_spot_percent": 29.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 31.5,
"avg_best_speed": 75.5928,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.8217,
"whiff_percent": 23.1,
"swing_percent": 46.4
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.4325,
"command_and_miss": -0.295,
"regression_edge": -0.4857,
"xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
"barrel_edge": 0.5111,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.8857,
"whiff_edge": -0.3429,
"bb_edge": 0.475,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "657514",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.0786,
"sample_weight": 0.672,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9933,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9747,
"walk_factor": 0.9745,
"homer_factor": 0.9453,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.017,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "657514",
"espn_id": 35876,
"player_name": "Brennan Bernardino",
"team": "COL",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 100,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 100,
"gp_value": 55.0,
"gp_rank": 8,
"gs_value": 2.0,
"gs_rank": 253,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 2.6433,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 3.0,
"w_rank": 206,
"l_value": 3.0,
"l_rank": 192,
"sv_value": 1.0,
"sv_rank": 115,
"hld_value": 8.0,
"hld_rank": 87,
"ip_value": 47.2,
"ip_rank": 246,
"h_value": 42.0,
"h_rank": 241,
"er_value": 14.0,
"er_rank": 366,
"hr_value": 3.0,
"hr_rank": 387,
"bb_value": 14.0,
"bb_rank": 341,
"k_value": 36.0,
"k_rank": 328,
"k_per_9_value": 6.797203,
"k_per_9_rank": 36,
"whip_value": 1.1748,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 1.48,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9955,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9955,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9829,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9632,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.983,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.1,
"ER": 1,
"H": 5,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 10,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 0.9642857142857144,
"WHIP": 0.7500000000000001,
"K9": 9.642857142857144,
"HR9": 0.9642857142857144,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-08T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "657514",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 9.533,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6559,
"prior_weight": 0.3441
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "657514",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 55,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.0,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 2.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 2.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 17.0,
"Pitches": 73.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.4,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 0.4,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 3.4,
"Pitches": 14.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.25,
"WHIP": 1.0,
"ER_per_IP": 0.25,
"H_per_IP": 0.5,
"BB_per_IP": 0.5,
"SO_per_IP": 0.5,
"HR_per_IP": 0.25
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.1,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 10.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 36.0,
"Pitches": 146.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.1,
"R": 0.1,
"H": 0.5,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 3.6,
"Pitches": 14.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.9643,
"WHIP": 0.75,
"ER_per_IP": 0.10714,
"H_per_IP": 0.53571,
"BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
"SO_per_IP": 1.07143,
"HR_per_IP": 0.10714
}
},
"season": {
"games": 55,
"totals": {
"IP": 47.2,
"ER": 14.0,
"R": 19.0,
"H": 42.0,
"BB": 14.0,
"SO": 36.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 200.0,
"Pitches": 755.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2545,
"R": 0.3455,
"H": 0.7636,
"BB": 0.2545,
"SO": 0.6545,
"HR": 0.0545,
"BF": 3.6364,
"Pitches": 13.7273
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.6434,
"WHIP": 1.1748,
"ER_per_IP": 0.29371,
"H_per_IP": 0.88112,
"BB_per_IP": 0.29371,
"SO_per_IP": 0.75524,
"HR_per_IP": 0.06294
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.278,
"predicted_H": 0.65,
"predicted_BB": 0.324,
"predicted_SO": 0.742,
"predicted_HR": 0.142,
"predicted_ERA": 2.7762,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.0801
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4954,
"form_weight": 0.5046,
"form_reliability": 0.6559,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 9.533,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6559,
"prior_weight": 0.3441
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.278,
"final": 0.1403,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.65,
"final": 0.328,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.324,
"final": 0.1635,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.742,
"final": 1.3652,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.142,
"final": 0.0717,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.7762,
"final": 2.7762,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.0801,
"final": 1.0801,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jordan Romano |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0911 |
| ESPN Rank | 644 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0271 |
| Avg Velo | 89.4283 |
| Avg Spin | 2234.7608 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 3 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 5.0943 |
| Season WHIP | 1.5849 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 128,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.3906,
"runs_scored": 621.0,
"runs_allowed": 737.0,
"run_differential": -116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.9062,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8516,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7578,
"offense_index": 1.0801,
"defense_index": 0.7801,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_pct": 0.4,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.9,
"run_differential": -6.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.239
},
"opponent": {
"team": "ARI",
"games": 128,
"wins": 68,
"losses": 60,
"win_pct": 0.5312,
"runs_scored": 593.0,
"runs_allowed": 571.0,
"run_differential": 22.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.1719,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6328,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4609,
"offense_index": 1.0314,
"defense_index": 1.0069,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 11.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0826
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.3216,
"offense_edge": 0.0801,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0314,
"defense_strength": -0.2199,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0069,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9793,
"run_prevention": 1.0431,
"strikeout": 0.9878
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "605447",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605447",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 67.0,
"k_percent": 28.7,
"bb_percent": 13.8,
"woba": 0.346,
"xwoba": 0.307,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 36.7,
"avg_best_speed": 75.8178,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.3517,
"whiff_percent": 29.4,
"swing_percent": 44.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.0043,
"command_and_miss": 0.3679,
"regression_edge": 1.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
"barrel_edge": 0.6667,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.1429,
"whiff_edge": 0.5571,
"bb_edge": -1.225,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0271
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605447",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 11,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 11,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.42834537062599,
"release_spin_rate": 2234.760768225657,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 11,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.42834537062599,
"release_spin_rate": 2234.760768225657,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.4283,
"release_spin_rate": 2234.7608,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
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}{
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}{
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"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
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}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Juan Mejia |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0721 |
| ESPN Rank | 393 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 0.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 5.2941 |
| Season WHIP | 1.5686 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
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"wins": 50,
"losses": 78,
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},
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},
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},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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"pitcher_id": "675848",
"player_name": "",
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},
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},
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"metrics": {
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"war_rank": null
},
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}
},
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}
}
}{
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"OPS": 0,
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},
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},
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},
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}{
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}{
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},
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},
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},
"per_game": {
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},
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}
},
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},
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},
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}
},
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},
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},
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}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
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}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.489,
"form_weight": 0.511,
"form_reliability": 0.671,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.199,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.671,
"prior_weight": 0.329
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.1,
"form": 0.2,
"final": 0.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.345,
"final": 0.1763,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.708,
"final": 0.3618,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.461,
"final": 0.2356,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.543,
"final": 1.2555,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.046,
"final": 0.0235,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.9782,
"final": 3.9782,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.4975,
"final": 1.4975,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.265 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.240 | 0.000 | -0.240 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.061 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.091 | 0.000 | -0.091 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.449 | 2.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.565 | 4.000 | -1.565 | -2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.290 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.299 | 0.000 | -0.299 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.469 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.448 | 0.000 | 0.552 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.052 | 0.000 | -0.052 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.065 | 0.000 | -1.065 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.102 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.110 | 0.000 | -0.110 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.375 | 0.250 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.373 | 0.000 | -0.123 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.714 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.851 | 0.000 | 0.149 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.612 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.747 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.491 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.510 | 0.000 | -0.510 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.816 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.805 | 0.000 | -0.805 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.4690 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5310, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.4490 -> 2.0000 (deboost -1.4490, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.4490 -> 3.5042 (boost 0.0552, better) | predicted_R: 0.7140 -> 0.6601 (deboost -0.0539, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3661 -> 0.3610 (deboost -0.0051, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | predicted_BB: 0.4885 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5115, better) | predicted_2B: 0.2798 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2798, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.025 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6445 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3555, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_OBP: 0.3610 -> 0.4000 (boost 0.0390, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4566 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.2066, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SF: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, higher) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 2.0000 (deboost -2.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4566 (boost 0.2066, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.4000 -> 0.3610 (deboost -0.0390, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "694249",
"player_name": "Cole Carrigg",
"position": "CF",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.265,
"predicted_3B": 0.061,
"predicted_AB": 3.449,
"predicted_AVG": 0.29,
"predicted_BB": 0.469,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.102,
"predicted_OBP": 0.375,
"predicted_R": 0.714,
"predicted_RBI": 0.612,
"predicted_SLG": 0.491,
"predicted_SO": 0.816
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2798,
"predicted_3B": 0.0503,
"predicted_AB": 3.5042,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2754,
"predicted_BB": 0.4916,
"predicted_H": 0.9638,
"predicted_HBP": 0.054,
"predicted_HR": 0.0896,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3661,
"predicted_R": 0.6601,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5766,
"predicted_SLG": 0.461,
"predicted_SO": 0.837
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.265,
"after": 0.2798,
"delta": 0.0148,
"percent_delta": 0.0558,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.061,
"after": 0.0503,
"delta": -0.0107,
"percent_delta": -0.1754,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 3.5042,
"delta": 0.0552,
"percent_delta": 0.016,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.2754,
"delta": -0.0146,
"percent_delta": -0.0503,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.4916,
"delta": 0.0226,
"percent_delta": 0.0482,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.9638,
"delta": -0.0362,
"percent_delta": -0.0362,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.102,
"after": 0.0896,
"delta": -0.0124,
"percent_delta": -0.1216,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.375,
"after": 0.3661,
"delta": -0.0089,
"percent_delta": -0.0237,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.714,
"after": 0.6601,
"delta": -0.0539,
"percent_delta": -0.0755,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.612,
"after": 0.5766,
"delta": -0.0354,
"percent_delta": -0.0578,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.491,
"after": 0.461,
"delta": -0.03,
"percent_delta": -0.0611,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": 0.021,
"percent_delta": 0.0257,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.0552,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -0.0539,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 49
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0503,
"predicted_AB": 3.5042,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2719,
"predicted_BB": 0.4885,
"predicted_H": 0.9528,
"predicted_HBP": 0.054,
"predicted_HR": 0.089,
"predicted_OBP": 0.361,
"predicted_R": 0.6445,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5629,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4566,
"predicted_SO": 0.8424
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2798,
"after": 0.2798,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0503,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.2719,
"delta": -0.0035,
"percent_delta": -0.0127,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.4885,
"delta": -0.0031,
"percent_delta": -0.0063,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 0.9528,
"delta": -0.011,
"percent_delta": -0.0114,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"percent_delta": -0.0067,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"delta": -0.0051,
"percent_delta": -0.0139,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"delta": -0.0156,
"percent_delta": -0.0236,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": -0.0137,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": -0.0044,
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"direction": "no_change",
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.025",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
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"delta": -0.2798,
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0503,
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{
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{
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{
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{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": -0.054,
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"direction": "deboost",
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{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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{
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"direction": "boost",
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{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 5,
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"direction": "boost",
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
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"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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"material": false
},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
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},
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
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"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.25,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2719,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.0219,
"percent_delta": -0.0805,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.361,
"after": 0.4,
"delta": 0.039,
"percent_delta": 0.108,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4566,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.2066,
"percent_delta": -0.4525,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.361,
"after": 0.4,
"delta": 0.039,
"percent_delta": 0.108,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4566,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.2066,
"percent_delta": -0.4525,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "higher",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "higher",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2719,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.361,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4566,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2719,
"delta": 0.0219,
"percent_delta": 0.0876,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.361,
"delta": -0.039,
"percent_delta": -0.0976,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4566,
"delta": 0.2066,
"percent_delta": 0.8265,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4566,
"delta": 0.2066,
"percent_delta": 0.8265,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.361,
"delta": -0.039,
"percent_delta": -0.0976,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.265,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.265,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.061,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.061,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.449,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -1.449,
"percent_delta": -0.4201,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.2719,
"delta": -0.0181,
"percent_delta": -0.0624,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.469,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.531,
"percent_delta": 1.1322,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.102,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.102,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.375,
"after": 0.361,
"delta": -0.014,
"percent_delta": -0.0373,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.714,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.286,
"percent_delta": 0.4006,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.612,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.388,
"percent_delta": 0.634,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.491,
"after": 0.4566,
"delta": -0.0344,
"percent_delta": -0.0701,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.816,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.816,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 12,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.469,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.531,
"percent_delta": 1.1322,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.449,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -1.449,
"percent_delta": -0.4201,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.265 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.061 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.449 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.290 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.469 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.102 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.375 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.714 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.612 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.491 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.816 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.280 | 0.015 |
| predicted_3B | 0.050 | -0.011 |
| predicted_AB | 3.504 | 0.055 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.275 | -0.015 |
| predicted_BB | 0.492 | 0.023 |
| predicted_H | 0.964 | -0.036 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.054 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | -0.012 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.366 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.660 | -0.054 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.577 | -0.035 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.461 | -0.030 |
| predicted_SO | 0.837 | 0.021 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.280 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.050 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.504 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.272 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.488 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.953 | -0.011 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.054 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.089 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.361 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.644 | -0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.563 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.457 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.842 | 0.005 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.025
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.280 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.050 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.496 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.022 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.512 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.047 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.089 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.400 | 0.039 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.356 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.437 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.207 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.158 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 2.000 | -2.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.1579 | 0.2727 | 0.2632 | 0.1579 | 0.0000 | 0.1053 | 0.1579 | 0.2632 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 9.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 9.000 | 0.2500 | 0.4000 | 0.3611 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.1111 | 0.2222 | 0.2500 |
| season | 0.60 | 49 | - | 169.000 | 49.000 | 13.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 30.000 | 35.000 | 23.000 | 40.000 | 0.2899 | 0.3769 | 0.4911 | 0.2899 | 0.0296 | 0.1775 | 0.1361 | 0.2367 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.3010 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0350 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5830 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2546 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5240 |
| predicted_H | 0.9120 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0540 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0720 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3535 |
| predicted_R | 0.5830 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5260 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4181 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8670 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2650 | 0.3010 | 0.2798 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0610 | 0.0350 | 0.0503 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4490 | 3.5830 | 3.5042 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2900 | 0.2546 | 0.2754 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4690 | 0.5240 | 0.4916 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.9120 | 0.9638 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0540 | 0.0540 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1020 | 0.0720 | 0.0896 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3750 | 0.3535 | 0.3661 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.7140 | 0.5830 | 0.6601 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6120 | 0.5260 | 0.5766 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4910 | 0.4181 | 0.4610 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8160 | 0.8670 | 0.8370 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 154 |
| Season rows before report date | 154 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 49 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 2 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 1 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.29 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260810_COL@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 694249 |
| playerID | 694249 |
| playerName | Cole Carrigg |
| pos | OF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.379 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.334 |
| sl_xba | 0.259 |
| sl_xslg | 0.401 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.170 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.181 | 0.000 | -0.181 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.003 | 0.000 | -0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.600 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.852 | 3.000 | 0.148 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.268 | 0.333 | -0.268 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.320 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.349 | 0.000 | -0.349 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.044 | 0.000 | -0.044 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.950 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.033 | 1.000 | -1.033 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.129 | 0.000 | -0.129 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.335 | 0.333 | -0.335 | -0.333 |
| predicted_R | 0.530 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.574 | 0.000 | -0.574 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.480 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.558 | 0.000 | -0.558 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.425 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.417 | 0.333 | -0.417 | -0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 1.100 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.173 | 2.000 | -1.173 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.6000 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.4000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.1000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.1000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.6000 -> 3.6541 (boost 0.0541, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.4573 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5427, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2992 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2992, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.040 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5279 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4721, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4457 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1957, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4457 (boost 0.1957, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "650489",
"player_name": "Willi Castro",
"position": "1B",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.01,
"predicted_AB": 3.6,
"predicted_AVG": 0.264,
"predicted_BB": 0.32,
"predicted_H": 0.95,
"predicted_HR": 0.13,
"predicted_OBP": 0.324,
"predicted_R": 0.53,
"predicted_RBI": 0.48,
"predicted_SLG": 0.425,
"predicted_SO": 1.1
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0164,
"predicted_AB": 3.6541,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2665,
"predicted_BB": 0.3011,
"predicted_H": 0.9736,
"predicted_HBP": 0.031,
"predicted_HR": 0.1489,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3239,
"predicted_R": 0.5407,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4684,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4491,
"predicted_SO": 1.094
},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"delta": -0.0189,
"percent_delta": -0.0591,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0236,
"percent_delta": 0.0248,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0189,
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{
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"delta": -0.0001,
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{
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"delta": 0.0107,
"percent_delta": 0.0202,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 0.4684,
"delta": -0.0116,
"percent_delta": -0.0242,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.425,
"after": 0.4491,
"delta": 0.0241,
"percent_delta": 0.0567,
"direction": "boost",
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{
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],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 0,
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"biggest_boost": {
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"biggest_deboost": null
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"weights": {
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
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"last_10": 10,
"season": 100
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0164,
"predicted_AB": 3.6541,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2634,
"predicted_BB": 0.2992,
"predicted_H": 0.9625,
"predicted_HBP": 0.031,
"predicted_HR": 0.1478,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3191,
"predicted_R": 0.5279,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4573,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4457,
"predicted_SO": 1.101
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"after": 0.0164,
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"direction": "no_change",
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{
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"direction": "no_change",
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{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"after": 0.2992,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0063,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"before": 0.9736,
"after": 0.9625,
"delta": -0.0111,
"percent_delta": -0.0114,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.031,
"after": 0.031,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": -0.0011,
"percent_delta": -0.0074,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"delta": -0.0048,
"percent_delta": -0.0148,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5407,
"after": 0.5279,
"delta": -0.0128,
"percent_delta": -0.0237,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4684,
"after": 0.4573,
"delta": -0.0111,
"percent_delta": -0.0237,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4491,
"after": 0.4457,
"delta": -0.0034,
"percent_delta": -0.0076,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"after": 1.101,
"delta": 0.007,
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
}
],
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"biggest_boost": null,
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"weights": {},
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{
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"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
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"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
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{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1898,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0164,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"before": 3.6541,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.3459,
"percent_delta": 0.0947,
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{
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"delta": -0.2992,
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{
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"delta": 0.0375,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.031,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"before": 0.1478,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1478,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.4573,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5427,
"percent_delta": 1.1867,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 1.101,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.101,
"percent_delta": -0.0917,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2992,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"material": false
},
{
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},
{
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"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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},
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_OBP": 0.3191,
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"predicted_SLG": 0.4457,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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}
],
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},
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},
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}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.425,
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"delta": 0.0207,
"percent_delta": 0.0487,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.600 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.320 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.950 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.530 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.480 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.425 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.100 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.190 | 0.020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 3.654 | 0.054 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.267 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.301 | -0.019 |
| predicted_H | 0.974 | 0.024 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.031 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.149 | 0.019 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | -0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.541 | 0.011 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.468 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.449 | 0.024 |
| predicted_SO | 1.094 | -0.006 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.190 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.654 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.263 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.299 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.963 | -0.011 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.031 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.148 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.319 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.528 | -0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.457 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.446 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 1.101 | 0.007 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.040
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.190 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.346 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.299 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.037 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.148 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.069 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.472 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.543 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.196 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.101 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.5000 | 0.2500 | 0.0500 | 0.1000 | 0.0000 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 12.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 4.000 | 12.000 | 0.3158 | 0.3810 | 0.6579 | 0.3158 | 0.0790 | 0.1053 | 0.1053 | 0.3158 |
| season | 0.60 | 100 | - | 360.000 | 95.000 | 17.000 | 1.000 | 13.000 | 48.000 | 53.000 | 32.000 | 110.000 | 0.2639 | 0.3317 | 0.4250 | 0.2639 | 0.0361 | 0.1333 | 0.0889 | 0.3056 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2160 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0250 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7260 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2699 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2760 |
| predicted_H | 1.0050 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0310 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1740 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3238 |
| predicted_R | 0.5550 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4530 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4811 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0860 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1700 | 0.2160 | 0.1898 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 | 0.0250 | 0.0164 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6000 | 3.7260 | 3.6541 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2640 | 0.2699 | 0.2665 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3200 | 0.2760 | 0.3011 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9500 | 1.0050 | 0.9736 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0310 | 0.0310 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 | 0.1740 | 0.1489 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3240 | 0.3238 | 0.3239 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5300 | 0.5550 | 0.5407 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4800 | 0.4530 | 0.4684 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4250 | 0.4811 | 0.4491 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1000 | 1.0860 | 1.0940 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 364 |
| Season rows before report date | 364 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 100 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.264 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260810_COL@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 650489 |
| playerID | 650489 |
| playerName | Willi Castro |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.333 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.31 |
| sl_xba | 0.233 |
| sl_xslg | 0.4 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.177 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.189 | 0.000 | -0.189 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.051 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.054 | 0.000 | -0.054 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.468 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.792 | 2.000 | -0.792 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.274 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.292 | 0.000 | -0.292 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.190 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.232 | 2.000 | 0.768 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.949 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.108 | 0.000 | -1.108 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.241 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.293 | 0.000 | -0.293 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.338 | 0.500 | -0.088 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.506 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.610 | 0.000 | -0.610 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.658 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.757 | 0.000 | -0.757 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.562 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.603 | 0.000 | -0.603 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.949 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.985 | 1.000 | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.1900 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8100, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.9490 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9490, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_RBI: 0.6580 -> 0.5894 (deboost -0.0686, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.8980 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1020, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.5754 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5754, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.061 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4420 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4420, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2628 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0702, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.5300 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.1970, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.5300 (boost 0.1970, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2628 (deboost -0.0702, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "666160",
"player_name": "Mickey Moniak",
"position": "DH",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.051,
"predicted_AB": 3.468,
"predicted_AVG": 0.274,
"predicted_BB": 0.19,
"predicted_H": 0.949,
"predicted_HR": 0.241,
"predicted_OBP": 0.311,
"predicted_R": 0.506,
"predicted_RBI": 0.658,
"predicted_SLG": 0.562,
"predicted_SO": 0.949
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1817,
"predicted_3B": 0.0489,
"predicted_AB": 3.4168,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2659,
"predicted_BB": 0.2209,
"predicted_H": 0.9084,
"predicted_HBP": 0.023,
"predicted_HR": 0.2126,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3097,
"predicted_R": 0.4527,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5894,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5336,
"predicted_SO": 0.9498
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.177,
"after": 0.1817,
"delta": 0.0047,
"percent_delta": 0.0266,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.051,
"after": 0.0489,
"delta": -0.0021,
"percent_delta": -0.0412,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.468,
"after": 3.4168,
"delta": -0.0512,
"percent_delta": -0.0148,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.274,
"after": 0.2659,
"delta": -0.0081,
"percent_delta": -0.0296,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.2209,
"delta": 0.0309,
"percent_delta": 0.1626,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.949,
"after": 0.9084,
"delta": -0.0406,
"percent_delta": -0.0428,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.2126,
"delta": -0.0284,
"percent_delta": -0.1178,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.311,
"after": 0.3097,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.0042,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.506,
"after": 0.4527,
"delta": -0.0533,
"percent_delta": -0.1053,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.658,
"after": 0.5894,
"delta": -0.0686,
"percent_delta": -0.1043,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.562,
"after": 0.5336,
"delta": -0.0284,
"percent_delta": -0.0505,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.949,
"after": 0.9498,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.658,
"after": 0.5894,
"delta": -0.0686,
"percent_delta": -0.1043,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 79
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1817,
"predicted_3B": 0.0489,
"predicted_AB": 3.4168,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2628,
"predicted_BB": 0.2195,
"predicted_H": 0.898,
"predicted_HBP": 0.023,
"predicted_HR": 0.2111,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3073,
"predicted_R": 0.442,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5754,
"predicted_SLG": 0.53,
"predicted_SO": 0.9559
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1817,
"after": 0.1817,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0489,
"after": 0.0489,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4168,
"after": 3.4168,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2659,
"after": 0.2628,
"delta": -0.0031,
"percent_delta": -0.0117,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2209,
"after": 0.2195,
"delta": -0.0014,
"percent_delta": -0.0063,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9084,
"after": 0.898,
"delta": -0.0104,
"percent_delta": -0.0114,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.023,
"after": 0.023,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2126,
"after": 0.2111,
"delta": -0.0015,
"percent_delta": -0.0071,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3097,
"after": 0.3073,
"delta": -0.0024,
"percent_delta": -0.0077,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4527,
"after": 0.442,
"delta": -0.0107,
"percent_delta": -0.0236,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5894,
"after": 0.5754,
"delta": -0.014,
"percent_delta": -0.0238,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5336,
"after": 0.53,
"delta": -0.0036,
"percent_delta": -0.0067,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9498,
"after": 0.9559,
"delta": 0.0061,
"percent_delta": 0.0064,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.061",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1817,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1817,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0489,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0489,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4168,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.4168,
"percent_delta": -0.122,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2195,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2195,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.898,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.102,
"percent_delta": 0.1136,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.023,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.023,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2111,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2111,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5754,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5754,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9559,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0441,
"percent_delta": 0.0461,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.898,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.102,
"percent_delta": 0.1136,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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{
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"step": "consistency_constraints",
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"stats": {
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],
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},
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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},
{
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},
{
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],
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
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},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_OBP": 0.3073,
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"predicted_SLG": 0.53,
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.241,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.311,
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},
{
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"before": 0.506,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.658,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.658,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.562,
"after": 0.53,
"delta": -0.032,
"percent_delta": -0.0569,
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"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.949,
"after": 1.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
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"percent_delta": 4.2632,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.177 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.051 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.468 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.274 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.949 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.241 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.506 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.658 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.562 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.949 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.182 | 0.005 |
| predicted_3B | 0.049 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.417 | -0.051 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.221 | 0.031 |
| predicted_H | 0.908 | -0.041 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.023 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.213 | -0.028 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.453 | -0.053 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.589 | -0.069 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.534 | -0.028 |
| predicted_SO | 0.950 | 0.001 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.182 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.049 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.417 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.263 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.220 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.898 | -0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.211 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | -0.011 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.575 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.530 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.956 | 0.006 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.061
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.182 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.049 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.417 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.070 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.220 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.102 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.211 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.026 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.442 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.575 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.197 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.044 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 14.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.2143 | 0.3125 | 0.2857 | 0.2143 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1429 | 0.3571 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 0.2424 | 0.2895 | 0.5455 | 0.2424 | 0.0606 | 0.1818 | 0.0909 | 0.2727 |
| season | 0.60 | 79 | - | 274.000 | 75.000 | 14.000 | 4.000 | 19.000 | 52.000 | 40.000 | 15.000 | 75.000 | 0.2737 | 0.3131 | 0.5620 | 0.2737 | 0.0693 | 0.1898 | 0.0547 | 0.2737 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1880 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0460 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3470 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2549 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2630 |
| predicted_H | 0.8530 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0230 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1740 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3080 |
| predicted_R | 0.3800 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4960 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4948 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9510 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1770 | 0.1880 | 0.1817 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0510 | 0.0460 | 0.0489 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4680 | 3.3470 | 3.4168 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2740 | 0.2549 | 0.2659 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1900 | 0.2630 | 0.2209 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9490 | 0.8530 | 0.9084 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0230 | 0.0230 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2410 | 0.1740 | 0.2126 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3110 | 0.3080 | 0.3097 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5060 | 0.3800 | 0.4527 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6580 | 0.4960 | 0.5894 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5620 | 0.4948 | 0.5336 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9490 | 0.9510 | 0.9498 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 259 |
| Season rows before report date | 259 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 79 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.274 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 2 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260810_COL@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 666160 |
| playerID | 666160 |
| playerName | Mickey Moniak |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.37 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.301 |
| sl_xba | 0.227 |
| sl_xslg | 0.433 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 21.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 57.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.176 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.202 | 0.000 | -0.202 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.059 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.043 | 0.000 | -0.043 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.853 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.330 | 2.000 | 0.670 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.196 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.185 | 0.000 | 0.065 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.176 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.213 | 1.000 | -0.213 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.043 | 0.000 | -0.043 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.559 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.617 | 0.000 | 0.383 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.029 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.053 | 0.000 | -0.053 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.243 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.231 | 0.333 | 0.019 | -0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.235 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.319 | 0.000 | -0.319 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.294 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.436 | 0.000 | -0.436 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.330 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.319 | 0.000 | -0.069 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.765 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.883 | 0.000 | 0.117 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.8530 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.1470, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.2940 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2940, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | predicted_AB: 2.8530 -> 2.9403 (boost 0.0873, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.6058 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3942, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.2649 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2649, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.011 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.2508 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2508, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2060 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1270, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3488 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0158, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.3488 (boost 0.0158, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2060 (deboost -0.1270, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "687597",
"player_name": "Jordan Beck",
"position": "RF",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.176,
"predicted_3B": 0.059,
"predicted_AB": 2.853,
"predicted_AVG": 0.196,
"predicted_BB": 0.176,
"predicted_H": 0.559,
"predicted_HR": 0.029,
"predicted_OBP": 0.243,
"predicted_R": 0.235,
"predicted_RBI": 0.294,
"predicted_SLG": 0.33,
"predicted_SO": 0.765
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1872,
"predicted_3B": 0.0675,
"predicted_AB": 2.9403,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2079,
"predicted_BB": 0.1864,
"predicted_H": 0.6128,
"predicted_HBP": 0.006,
"predicted_HR": 0.0328,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2555,
"predicted_R": 0.2569,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2713,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3508,
"predicted_SO": 0.7796
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.176,
"after": 0.1872,
"delta": 0.0112,
"percent_delta": 0.0636,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.059,
"after": 0.0675,
"delta": 0.0085,
"percent_delta": 0.1441,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.853,
"after": 2.9403,
"delta": 0.0873,
"percent_delta": 0.0306,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.196,
"after": 0.2079,
"delta": 0.0119,
"percent_delta": 0.0607,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.176,
"after": 0.1864,
"delta": 0.0104,
"percent_delta": 0.0591,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.559,
"after": 0.6128,
"delta": 0.0538,
"percent_delta": 0.0962,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.029,
"after": 0.0328,
"delta": 0.0038,
"percent_delta": 0.131,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.243,
"after": 0.2555,
"delta": 0.0125,
"percent_delta": 0.0514,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.235,
"after": 0.2569,
"delta": 0.0219,
"percent_delta": 0.0932,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.294,
"after": 0.2713,
"delta": -0.0227,
"percent_delta": -0.0772,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.3508,
"delta": 0.0208,
"percent_delta": 0.063,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.765,
"after": 0.7796,
"delta": 0.0146,
"percent_delta": 0.0191,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.853,
"after": 2.9403,
"delta": 0.0873,
"percent_delta": 0.0306,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 34
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1872,
"predicted_3B": 0.0675,
"predicted_AB": 2.9403,
"predicted_AVG": 0.206,
"predicted_BB": 0.1852,
"predicted_H": 0.6058,
"predicted_HBP": 0.006,
"predicted_HR": 0.0326,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2531,
"predicted_R": 0.2508,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2649,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3488,
"predicted_SO": 0.7846
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1872,
"after": 0.1872,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0675,
"after": 0.0675,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.9403,
"after": 2.9403,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2079,
"after": 0.206,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0091,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1864,
"after": 0.1852,
"delta": -0.0012,
"percent_delta": -0.0064,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6128,
"after": 0.6058,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -0.0114,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.006,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0328,
"after": 0.0326,
"delta": -0.0002,
"percent_delta": -0.0061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2555,
"after": 0.2531,
"delta": -0.0024,
"percent_delta": -0.0094,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.2569,
"after": 0.2508,
"delta": -0.0061,
"percent_delta": -0.0237,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2713,
"after": 0.2649,
"delta": -0.0064,
"percent_delta": -0.0236,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3508,
"after": 0.3488,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -0.0057,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7796,
"after": 0.7846,
"delta": 0.005,
"percent_delta": 0.0064,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.011",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1872,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1872,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0675,
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.176 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.059 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.853 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.196 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.176 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.559 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.029 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.243 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.235 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.294 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.330 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.765 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.187 | 0.011 |
| predicted_3B | 0.068 | 0.009 |
| predicted_AB | 2.940 | 0.087 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.208 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.186 | 0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.613 | 0.054 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.033 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.256 | 0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.257 | 0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.271 | -0.023 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.351 | 0.021 |
| predicted_SO | 0.780 | 0.015 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.187 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.068 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.940 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.206 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.185 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.606 | -0.007 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.033 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.253 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.251 | -0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.265 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.349 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.785 | 0.005 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.011
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.187 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.068 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.060 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.127 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.185 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.394 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.033 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.080 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.251 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.265 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.215 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.2667 | 0.3125 | 0.4667 | 0.2667 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0667 | 0.2667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 28.000 | 7.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3000 | 0.4286 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0714 | 0.2857 |
| season | 0.60 | 34 | - | 97.000 | 19.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 10.000 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 26.000 | 0.1959 | 0.2404 | 0.3299 | 0.1959 | 0.0103 | 0.1031 | 0.0619 | 0.2680 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2050 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0810 |
| predicted_AB | 3.0800 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2270 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2030 |
| predicted_H | 0.6990 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0060 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0390 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2754 |
| predicted_R | 0.2920 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2350 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3842 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8030 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1760 | 0.2050 | 0.1872 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0590 | 0.0810 | 0.0675 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.8530 | 3.0800 | 2.9403 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1960 | 0.2270 | 0.2079 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1760 | 0.2030 | 0.1864 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.5590 | 0.6990 | 0.6128 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0060 | 0.0060 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0290 | 0.0390 | 0.0328 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2430 | 0.2754 | 0.2555 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.2350 | 0.2920 | 0.2569 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2940 | 0.2350 | 0.2713 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3300 | 0.3842 | 0.3508 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7650 | 0.8030 | 0.7796 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 94 |
| Season rows before report date | 94 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 34 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.196 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260810_COL@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 687597 |
| playerID | 687597 |
| playerName | Jordan Beck |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.249 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.252 |
| sl_xba | 0.218 |
| sl_xslg | 0.315 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 28.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.125 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.205 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.375 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 0.641 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.062 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.290 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_R | 0.266 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.250 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.325 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.094 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.3750 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6250, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.2660 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2660, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3250 -> 0.3107 (deboost -0.0143, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2891 -> 0.2798 (deboost -0.0093, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.6177 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3823, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3502 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3502, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.017 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.2357 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2357, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1987 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1343, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1987 (deboost -0.1343, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "681393",
"player_name": "Connor Norby",
"position": "2B",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.188,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.125,
"predicted_AVG": 0.205,
"predicted_BB": 0.375,
"predicted_H": 0.641,
"predicted_HR": 0.062,
"predicted_OBP": 0.29,
"predicted_R": 0.266,
"predicted_RBI": 0.25,
"predicted_SLG": 0.325,
"predicted_SO": 1.094
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1751,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.1092,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2008,
"predicted_BB": 0.3525,
"predicted_H": 0.6248,
"predicted_HBP": 0.09,
"predicted_HR": 0.0549,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2891,
"predicted_R": 0.2414,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2279,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3107,
"predicted_SO": 1.1152
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.188,
"after": 0.1751,
"delta": -0.0129,
"percent_delta": -0.0686,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.125,
"after": 3.1092,
"delta": -0.0158,
"percent_delta": -0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.205,
"after": 0.2008,
"delta": -0.0042,
"percent_delta": -0.0205,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.375,
"after": 0.3525,
"delta": -0.0225,
"percent_delta": -0.06,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.641,
"after": 0.6248,
"delta": -0.0162,
"percent_delta": -0.0253,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.062,
"after": 0.0549,
"delta": -0.0071,
"percent_delta": -0.1145,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.2891,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.0031,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.266,
"after": 0.2414,
"delta": -0.0246,
"percent_delta": -0.0925,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2279,
"delta": -0.0221,
"percent_delta": -0.0884,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.3107,
"delta": -0.0143,
"percent_delta": -0.044,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.094,
"after": 1.1152,
"delta": 0.0212,
"percent_delta": 0.0194,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.3107,
"delta": -0.0143,
"percent_delta": -0.044,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 64
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1751,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.1092,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1987,
"predicted_BB": 0.3502,
"predicted_H": 0.6177,
"predicted_HBP": 0.09,
"predicted_HR": 0.0545,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2798,
"predicted_R": 0.2357,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2225,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3078,
"predicted_SO": 1.1223
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1751,
"after": 0.1751,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.1092,
"after": 3.1092,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2008,
"after": 0.1987,
"delta": -0.0021,
"percent_delta": -0.0105,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3525,
"after": 0.3502,
"delta": -0.0023,
"percent_delta": -0.0065,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6248,
"after": 0.6177,
"delta": -0.0071,
"percent_delta": -0.0114,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.09,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0549,
"after": 0.0545,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0073,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2891,
"after": 0.2798,
"delta": -0.0093,
"percent_delta": -0.0322,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.2414,
"after": 0.2357,
"delta": -0.0057,
"percent_delta": -0.0236,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2279,
"after": 0.2225,
"delta": -0.0054,
"percent_delta": -0.0237,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.266,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.25,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.3078,
"delta": -0.0172,
"percent_delta": -0.0529,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.094,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.094,
"percent_delta": -0.0859,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.375,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.625,
"percent_delta": 1.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.266,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.266,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.125 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.205 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.375 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.641 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.062 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.290 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.266 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.325 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.094 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.175 | -0.013 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.109 | -0.016 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.201 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.352 | -0.023 |
| predicted_H | 0.625 | -0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.055 | -0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.289 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.241 | -0.025 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.228 | -0.022 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.311 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 1.115 | 0.021 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.175 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.109 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.199 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.350 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.618 | -0.007 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.090 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.054 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.280 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.236 | -0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.223 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.308 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 1.122 | 0.007 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.017
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.175 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.109 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.134 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.350 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.382 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.054 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.053 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.236 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.223 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.025 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.122 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.1333 | 0.1875 | 0.1333 | 0.1333 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0667 | 0.4000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 26.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 13.000 | 0.1923 | 0.3000 | 0.2692 | 0.1923 | 0.0000 | 0.0385 | 0.1154 | 0.5000 |
| season | 0.60 | 64 | - | 200.000 | 41.000 | 12.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 16.000 | 17.000 | 24.000 | 70.000 | 0.2050 | 0.3133 | 0.3250 | 0.2050 | 0.0200 | 0.0800 | 0.1200 | 0.3500 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1570 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.0870 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1950 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3210 |
| predicted_H | 0.6020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0900 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0450 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2878 |
| predicted_R | 0.2070 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1970 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2907 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1450 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1880 | 0.1570 | 0.1751 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.1250 | 3.0870 | 3.1092 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2050 | 0.1950 | 0.2008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3750 | 0.3210 | 0.3525 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6410 | 0.6020 | 0.6248 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0900 | 0.0900 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0620 | 0.0450 | 0.0549 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2900 | 0.2878 | 0.2891 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.2660 | 0.2070 | 0.2414 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2500 | 0.1970 | 0.2279 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3250 | 0.2907 | 0.3107 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0940 | 1.1450 | 1.1152 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 64 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.205 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.255 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.266 | 0.000 | 0.734 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.071 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.063 | 0.000 | -0.063 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.380 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.834 | 3.000 | 1.166 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.357 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.310 | 0.333 | 0.090 | 0.067 |
| predicted_BB | 0.173 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.215 | 1.000 | -0.215 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.029 | 0.000 | -0.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.560 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.189 | 1.000 | 0.811 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.143 | 0.000 | -0.143 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.396 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.352 | 0.500 | 0.048 | -0.100 |
| predicted_R | 0.571 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.582 | 0.000 | 0.418 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.700 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.725 | 0.000 | 0.275 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.546 | 0.600 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.525 | 0.333 | 0.075 | 0.267 |
| predicted_SO | 0.704 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.739 | 1.000 | -0.739 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.2550 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7450, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.7040 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7040, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | predicted_R: 0.5710 -> 0.6406 (boost 0.0696, better) | predicted_AB: 4.3800 -> 4.2100 (deboost -0.1700, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.5760 -> 0.6080 (boost 0.0320, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3934 -> 0.3797 (deboost -0.0137, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.6692 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3308, worse) | predicted_H: 1.4921 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.4921, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.341 HR/AB=0.051 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6254 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3746, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.6080 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.3580, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.6080 (boost 0.3580, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "664983",
"player_name": "Jake McCarthy",
"position": "LF",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.255,
"predicted_3B": 0.071,
"predicted_AB": 4.38,
"predicted_AVG": 0.357,
"predicted_BB": 0.173,
"predicted_H": 1.56,
"predicted_HR": 0.24,
"predicted_OBP": 0.396,
"predicted_R": 0.571,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7,
"predicted_SLG": 0.546,
"predicted_SO": 0.704
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2743,
"predicted_3B": 0.059,
"predicted_AB": 4.21,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3591,
"predicted_BB": 0.173,
"predicted_H": 1.5093,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.2267,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3934,
"predicted_R": 0.6406,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6871,
"predicted_SLG": 0.576,
"predicted_SO": 0.6649
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.255,
"after": 0.2743,
"delta": 0.0193,
"percent_delta": 0.0757,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.071,
"after": 0.059,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -0.169,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.38,
"after": 4.21,
"delta": -0.17,
"percent_delta": -0.0388,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.357,
"after": 0.3591,
"delta": 0.0021,
"percent_delta": 0.0059,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.173,
"after": 0.173,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.56,
"after": 1.5093,
"delta": -0.0507,
"percent_delta": -0.0325,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2267,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -0.0554,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.396,
"after": 0.3934,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.0066,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.571,
"after": 0.6406,
"delta": 0.0696,
"percent_delta": 0.1219,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7,
"after": 0.6871,
"delta": -0.0129,
"percent_delta": -0.0184,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.546,
"after": 0.576,
"delta": 0.03,
"percent_delta": 0.0549,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.704,
"after": 0.6649,
"delta": -0.0391,
"percent_delta": -0.0555,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.571,
"after": 0.6406,
"delta": 0.0696,
"percent_delta": 0.1219,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.38,
"after": 4.21,
"delta": -0.17,
"percent_delta": -0.0388,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 98
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2743,
"predicted_3B": 0.059,
"predicted_AB": 4.21,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3544,
"predicted_BB": 0.1719,
"predicted_H": 1.4921,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.2251,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3797,
"predicted_R": 0.6254,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6708,
"predicted_SLG": 0.608,
"predicted_SO": 0.6692
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2743,
"after": 0.2743,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.059,
"after": 0.059,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.21,
"after": 4.21,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.3591,
"after": 0.3544,
"delta": -0.0047,
"percent_delta": -0.0131,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.173,
"after": 0.1719,
"delta": -0.0011,
"percent_delta": -0.0064,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.5093,
"after": 1.4921,
"delta": -0.0172,
"percent_delta": -0.0114,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.026,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2267,
"after": 0.2251,
"delta": -0.0016,
"percent_delta": -0.0071,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3934,
"after": 0.3797,
"delta": -0.0137,
"percent_delta": -0.0348,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6406,
"after": 0.6254,
"delta": -0.0152,
"percent_delta": -0.0237,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6871,
"after": 0.6708,
"delta": -0.0163,
"percent_delta": -0.0237,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.576,
"after": 0.608,
"delta": 0.032,
"percent_delta": 0.0556,
"direction": "boost",
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"before": 0.396,
"after": 0.3797,
"delta": -0.0163,
"percent_delta": -0.0412,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.571,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.429,
"percent_delta": 0.7513,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3,
"percent_delta": 0.4286,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.546,
"after": 0.608,
"delta": 0.062,
"percent_delta": 0.1136,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.704,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.704,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 7,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.255,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.745,
"percent_delta": 2.9216,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.704,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.704,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.255 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.071 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.380 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.357 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.173 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.560 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.240 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.396 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.571 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.700 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.546 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.704 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.274 | 0.019 |
| predicted_3B | 0.059 | -0.012 |
| predicted_AB | 4.210 | -0.170 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.359 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.173 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.509 | -0.051 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.227 | -0.013 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.393 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.641 | 0.070 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.687 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.576 | 0.030 |
| predicted_SO | 0.665 | -0.039 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.274 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.059 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.210 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.354 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.172 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.492 | -0.017 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.225 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.380 | -0.014 |
| predicted_R | 0.625 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.671 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.608 | 0.032 |
| predicted_SO | 0.669 | 0.004 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.341 HR/AB=0.051
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.274 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.059 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.210 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.104 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.172 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.492 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.225 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.130 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.375 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.329 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.358 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.331 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.5238 | 0.5455 | 0.9048 | 0.5238 | 0.0952 | 0.1429 | 0.0476 | 0.0952 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 44.000 | 18.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.4091 | 0.4130 | 0.7045 | 0.4091 | 0.0682 | 0.1818 | 0.0227 | 0.0909 |
| season | 0.60 | 98 | - | 372.000 | 114.000 | 25.000 | 7.000 | 13.000 | 66.000 | 56.000 | 17.000 | 69.000 | 0.3065 | 0.3409 | 0.5161 | 0.3065 | 0.0350 | 0.1774 | 0.0457 | 0.1855 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.3000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0430 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9840 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3619 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1730 |
| predicted_H | 1.4420 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0260 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2090 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3899 |
| predicted_R | 0.7330 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6700 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.6159 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6130 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2550 | 0.3000 | 0.2743 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0710 | 0.0430 | 0.0590 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.3800 | 3.9840 | 4.2100 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3570 | 0.3619 | 0.3591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1730 | 0.1730 | 0.1730 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.5600 | 1.4420 | 1.5093 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0260 | 0.0260 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2400 | 0.2090 | 0.2267 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3960 | 0.3899 | 0.3934 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5710 | 0.7330 | 0.6406 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7000 | 0.6700 | 0.6871 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5460 | 0.6159 | 0.5760 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7040 | 0.6130 | 0.6649 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 349 |
| Season rows before report date | 349 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 98 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.306 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260810_COL@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 664983 |
| playerID | 664983 |
| playerName | Jake McCarthy |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 4.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.368 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.321 |
| sl_xba | 0.276 |
| sl_xslg | 0.415 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 27.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 57.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.147 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.180 | 0.000 | -0.180 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.760 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.915 | 2.000 | 0.085 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.265 | 0.000 | -0.265 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.349 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.401 | 1.000 | -0.401 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.049 | 0.000 | -0.049 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.820 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.039 | 0.000 | -1.039 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.300 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.363 | 0.000 | -0.363 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.338 | 0.333 | -0.338 | -0.333 |
| predicted_R | 0.615 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.723 | 0.000 | -0.723 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.610 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.679 | 0.000 | -0.679 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.448 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.589 | 0.000 | -0.589 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.385 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.399 | 0.000 | -0.399 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.7600 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.2400, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8200 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.4480 -> 0.4681 (boost 0.0201, better) | predicted_AB: 3.7600 -> 3.6801 (deboost -0.0799, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4681 -> 0.4913 (boost 0.0232, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.2942 -> 0.2854 (deboost -0.0088, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.6212 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3788, better) | predicted_SO: 1.3483 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.3483, better) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.076 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5355 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4645, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2234 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0266, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4913 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.2413, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4913 (boost 0.2413, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2234 (deboost -0.0266, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "696100",
"player_name": "Hunter Goodman",
"position": "C",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.147,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.76,
"predicted_AVG": 0.219,
"predicted_BB": 0.349,
"predicted_H": 0.82,
"predicted_HR": 0.3,
"predicted_OBP": 0.294,
"predicted_R": 0.615,
"predicted_RBI": 0.61,
"predicted_SLG": 0.448,
"predicted_SO": 1.385
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1224,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.6801,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2268,
"predicted_BB": 0.3214,
"predicted_H": 0.8317,
"predicted_HBP": 0.022,
"predicted_HR": 0.2896,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2942,
"predicted_R": 0.5485,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6363,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4681,
"predicted_SO": 1.3397
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.147,
"after": 0.1224,
"delta": -0.0246,
"percent_delta": -0.1673,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.76,
"after": 3.6801,
"delta": -0.0799,
"percent_delta": -0.0212,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.219,
"after": 0.2268,
"delta": 0.0078,
"percent_delta": 0.0356,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.349,
"after": 0.3214,
"delta": -0.0276,
"percent_delta": -0.0791,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.82,
"after": 0.8317,
"delta": 0.0117,
"percent_delta": 0.0143,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 0.2896,
"delta": -0.0104,
"percent_delta": -0.0347,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.294,
"after": 0.2942,
"delta": 0.0002,
"percent_delta": 0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.615,
"after": 0.5485,
"delta": -0.0665,
"percent_delta": -0.1081,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.61,
"after": 0.6363,
"delta": 0.0263,
"percent_delta": 0.0431,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.448,
"after": 0.4681,
"delta": 0.0201,
"percent_delta": 0.0449,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.385,
"after": 1.3397,
"delta": -0.0453,
"percent_delta": -0.0327,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.448,
"after": 0.4681,
"delta": 0.0201,
"percent_delta": 0.0449,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.76,
"after": 3.6801,
"delta": -0.0799,
"percent_delta": -0.0212,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 109
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1224,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.6801,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2234,
"predicted_BB": 0.3193,
"predicted_H": 0.8222,
"predicted_HBP": 0.022,
"predicted_HR": 0.2875,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2854,
"predicted_R": 0.5355,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6212,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4913,
"predicted_SO": 1.3483
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1224,
"after": 0.1224,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"percent_delta": 0.9651,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4913,
"delta": 0.2413,
"percent_delta": 0.9651,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2234,
"delta": -0.0266,
"percent_delta": -0.1063,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.147,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.147,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.76,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.24,
"percent_delta": 0.0638,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.219,
"after": 0.2234,
"delta": 0.0044,
"percent_delta": 0.0201,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.349,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.349,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.82,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.82,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.294,
"after": 0.2854,
"delta": -0.0086,
"percent_delta": -0.0293,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.615,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.615,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.61,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.61,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.448,
"after": 0.4913,
"delta": 0.0433,
"percent_delta": 0.0967,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.385,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.385,
"percent_delta": -0.278,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.76,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.24,
"percent_delta": 0.0638,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.82,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.82,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.147 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.760 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.349 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.820 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.300 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.615 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.610 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.448 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.385 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.122 | -0.025 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.680 | -0.080 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | 0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.321 | -0.028 |
| predicted_H | 0.832 | 0.012 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.022 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.290 | -0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.548 | -0.067 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.636 | 0.026 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.468 | 0.020 |
| predicted_SO | 1.340 | -0.045 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.122 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.680 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.319 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.822 | -0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.287 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.285 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.535 | -0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.621 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.491 | 0.023 |
| predicted_SO | 1.348 | 0.009 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.076
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.122 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.320 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.027 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.319 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.178 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.287 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.035 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.465 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.379 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.241 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.348 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.2000 | 0.2500 | 0.4000 | 0.2000 | 0.0667 | 0.2000 | 0.0667 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 14.000 | 0.2222 | 0.2564 | 0.4722 | 0.2222 | 0.0833 | 0.2500 | 0.0556 | 0.3889 |
| season | 0.60 | 109 | - | 407.000 | 103.000 | 16.000 | 0.000 | 34.000 | 69.000 | 67.000 | 38.000 | 151.000 | 0.2531 | 0.3208 | 0.5430 | 0.2531 | 0.0835 | 0.1695 | 0.0934 | 0.3710 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0900 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5750 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2370 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2850 |
| predicted_H | 0.8470 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0220 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2760 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2945 |
| predicted_R | 0.4610 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6710 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4946 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2800 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1470 | 0.0900 | 0.1224 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7600 | 3.5750 | 3.6801 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2190 | 0.2370 | 0.2268 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3490 | 0.2850 | 0.3214 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8200 | 0.8470 | 0.8317 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0220 | 0.0220 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.3000 | 0.2760 | 0.2896 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2940 | 0.2945 | 0.2942 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6150 | 0.4610 | 0.5485 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6100 | 0.6710 | 0.6363 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4480 | 0.4946 | 0.4681 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.3850 | 1.2800 | 1.3397 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 411 |
| Season rows before report date | 411 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 109 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.253 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260810_COL@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 696100 |
| playerID | 696100 |
| playerName | Hunter Goodman |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 33.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.367 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.325 |
| sl_xba | 0.23 |
| sl_xslg | 0.461 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 16.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 45.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 36.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.220 | 0.000 | -0.220 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.434 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.696 | 4.000 | -0.696 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.210 | 0.000 | -0.210 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.217 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.211 | 0.000 | 0.789 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.003 | 0.000 | -0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.740 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.775 | 0.000 | -0.775 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.100 | 0.000 | -0.100 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.270 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.251 | 0.000 | -0.001 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.368 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.409 | 0.000 | -0.409 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.360 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.428 | 0.000 | -0.428 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.349 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.350 | 0.000 | -0.350 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.943 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.003 | 1.000 | -1.003 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.2170 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7830, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.9430 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9430, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2724 -> 0.2661 (deboost -0.0063, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.7401 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2599, better) | predicted_AB: 3.4160 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.4160, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.024 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3769 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3769, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2166 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1164, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3408 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0078, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.3408 (boost 0.0078, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2166 (deboost -0.1164, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "678662",
"player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
"position": "SS",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.179,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.434,
"predicted_AVG": 0.221,
"predicted_BB": 0.217,
"predicted_H": 0.74,
"predicted_HR": 0.09,
"predicted_OBP": 0.27,
"predicted_R": 0.368,
"predicted_RBI": 0.36,
"predicted_SLG": 0.349,
"predicted_SO": 0.943
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1743,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.416,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2223,
"predicted_BB": 0.2316,
"predicted_H": 0.7486,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.0836,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2724,
"predicted_R": 0.386,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3433,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3455,
"predicted_SO": 0.9426
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.179,
"after": 0.1743,
"delta": -0.0047,
"percent_delta": -0.0263,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.434,
"after": 3.416,
"delta": -0.018,
"percent_delta": -0.0052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.221,
"after": 0.2223,
"delta": 0.0013,
"percent_delta": 0.0059,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.217,
"after": 0.2316,
"delta": 0.0146,
"percent_delta": 0.0673,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.74,
"after": 0.7486,
"delta": 0.0086,
"percent_delta": 0.0116,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0836,
"delta": -0.0064,
"percent_delta": -0.0711,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.2724,
"delta": 0.0024,
"percent_delta": 0.0089,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.368,
"after": 0.386,
"delta": 0.018,
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"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2661,
"delta": -0.0669,
"percent_delta": -0.2009,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3408,
"delta": 0.0078,
"percent_delta": 0.0234,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3408,
"delta": 0.0078,
"percent_delta": 0.0234,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2166,
"delta": -0.1164,
"percent_delta": -0.3494,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.179,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.179,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.434,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.434,
"percent_delta": -0.1264,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.221,
"after": 0.2166,
"delta": -0.0044,
"percent_delta": -0.0199,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.217,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.783,
"percent_delta": 3.6083,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.74,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.74,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.09,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.2661,
"delta": -0.0039,
"percent_delta": -0.0144,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.368,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.368,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.36,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.36,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.349,
"after": 0.3408,
"delta": -0.0082,
"percent_delta": -0.0235,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.943,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.943,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.217,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.783,
"percent_delta": 3.6083,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.943,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.943,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.434 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.217 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.740 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.270 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.368 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.360 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.349 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.943 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.174 | -0.005 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.416 | -0.018 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.222 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.232 | 0.015 |
| predicted_H | 0.749 | 0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.084 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.272 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.386 | 0.018 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.343 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.345 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.943 | -0.000 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.174 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.416 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.217 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.230 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.740 | -0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.083 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.266 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.377 | -0.009 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.335 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.341 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 0.949 | 0.006 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.024
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.174 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.416 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.116 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.230 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.260 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.083 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.067 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.377 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.335 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.051 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.2353 | 0.3158 | 0.2941 | 0.2353 | 0.0000 | 0.0588 | 0.1177 | 0.2941 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 31.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 0.2581 | 0.2941 | 0.3871 | 0.2581 | 0.0323 | 0.0968 | 0.0645 | 0.2903 |
| season | 0.60 | 106 | - | 364.000 | 75.000 | 19.000 | 0.000 | 9.000 | 37.000 | 39.000 | 23.000 | 100.000 | 0.2060 | 0.2525 | 0.3324 | 0.2060 | 0.0247 | 0.1017 | 0.0632 | 0.2747 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1680 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3920 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2241 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2510 |
| predicted_H | 0.7600 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0120 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0750 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2757 |
| predicted_R | 0.4100 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3210 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3408 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9420 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1790 | 0.1680 | 0.1743 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4340 | 3.3920 | 3.4160 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2210 | 0.2241 | 0.2223 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2170 | 0.2510 | 0.2316 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7400 | 0.7600 | 0.7486 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0120 | 0.0120 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 | 0.0750 | 0.0836 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2700 | 0.2757 | 0.2724 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3680 | 0.4100 | 0.3860 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3600 | 0.3210 | 0.3433 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3490 | 0.3408 | 0.3455 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9430 | 0.9420 | 0.9426 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 369 |
| Season rows before report date | 369 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 106 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.206 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260809_COL@STL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 678662 |
| playerID | 678662 |
| playerName | Ezequiel Tovar |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-09 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.254 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.271 |
| sl_xba | 0.218 |
| sl_xslg | 0.355 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 62.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.187 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.212 | 0.000 | -0.212 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.028 | 0.000 | -0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.440 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.223 | 4.000 | 0.777 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.278 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.439 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.517 | 0.000 | 0.483 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.800 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.897 | 0.000 | 1.103 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.092 | 0.000 | 0.908 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | 0.600 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.385 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.600 |
| predicted_R | 0.533 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.603 | 0.000 | 0.397 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.430 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.413 | 0.000 | 0.587 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.354 | 1.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.447 | 0.000 | 0.803 | 1.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.738 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.757 | 2.000 | 0.243 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 2 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.8000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.2000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_2B: 0.1870 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1870, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2330 -> 0.2394 (boost 0.0064, better) | predicted_AB: 3.4400 -> 3.3662 (deboost -0.0738, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3284 -> 0.3166 (deboost -0.0118, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.7315 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2685, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.3997 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3997, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.019 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4986 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4986, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2362 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0968, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3519 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0189, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.3519 (boost 0.0189, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2362 (deboost -0.0968, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "691720",
"player_name": "Kyle Karros",
"position": "3B",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.187,
"predicted_3B": 0.019,
"predicted_AB": 3.44,
"predicted_AVG": 0.233,
"predicted_BB": 0.439,
"predicted_H": 0.8,
"predicted_HR": 0.07,
"predicted_OBP": 0.325,
"predicted_R": 0.533,
"predicted_RBI": 0.43,
"predicted_SLG": 0.354,
"predicted_SO": 0.738
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1655,
"predicted_3B": 0.016,
"predicted_AB": 3.3662,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2394,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2362,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3166,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3519,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2362,
"delta": -0.0968,
"percent_delta": -0.2907,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3166,
"delta": -0.0164,
"percent_delta": -0.0492,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3519,
"delta": 0.0189,
"percent_delta": 0.0566,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3519,
"delta": 0.0189,
"percent_delta": 0.0566,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2362,
"delta": -0.0968,
"percent_delta": -0.2907,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.187,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.187,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.019,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.44,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.56,
"percent_delta": 0.1628,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.233,
"after": 0.2362,
"delta": 0.0032,
"percent_delta": 0.0137,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.439,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.561,
"percent_delta": 1.2779,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.2,
"percent_delta": 1.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.07,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.93,
"percent_delta": 13.2857,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.3166,
"delta": -0.0084,
"percent_delta": -0.0258,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.533,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.467,
"percent_delta": 0.8762,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.43,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.57,
"percent_delta": 1.3256,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.354,
"after": 0.3519,
"delta": -0.0021,
"percent_delta": -0.0059,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.738,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.262,
"percent_delta": 0.355,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 7,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.2,
"percent_delta": 1.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.187,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.187,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.187 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.440 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.439 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.800 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.533 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.430 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.354 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.738 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | -0.021 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.366 | -0.074 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.399 | -0.040 |
| predicted_H | 0.804 | 0.004 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.106 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.064 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.328 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.511 | -0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.409 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.352 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.727 | -0.011 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.366 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.396 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.795 | -0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.106 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.064 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.317 | -0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.499 | -0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.400 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.352 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.732 | 0.005 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.019
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.166 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.366 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.097 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.396 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.205 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.064 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.499 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.400 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.268 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.1875 | 0.2632 | 0.1875 | 0.1875 | 0.0000 | 0.0625 | 0.0625 | 0.1250 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3171 | 0.2778 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.1389 | 0.0556 | 0.2500 |
| season | 0.60 | 107 | - | 333.000 | 89.000 | 20.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 42.000 | 57.000 | 47.000 | 79.000 | 0.2673 | 0.3650 | 0.4204 | 0.2673 | 0.0270 | 0.1261 | 0.1411 | 0.2372 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1370 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2680 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2479 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3450 |
| predicted_H | 0.8100 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1060 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0570 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3330 |
| predicted_R | 0.4810 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3820 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3499 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7120 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1870 | 0.1370 | 0.1655 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0190 | 0.0120 | 0.0160 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4400 | 3.2680 | 3.3662 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2330 | 0.2479 | 0.2394 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4390 | 0.3450 | 0.3987 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8000 | 0.8100 | 0.8043 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1060 | 0.1060 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0700 | 0.0570 | 0.0644 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3250 | 0.3330 | 0.3284 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5330 | 0.4810 | 0.5107 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4300 | 0.3820 | 0.4094 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3540 | 0.3499 | 0.3522 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7380 | 0.7120 | 0.7268 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 358 |
| Season rows before report date | 358 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 107 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.267 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 1 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260810_COL@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 691720 |
| playerID | 691720 |
| playerName | Kyle Karros |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.347 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.337 |
| sl_xba | 0.255 |
| sl_xslg | 0.396 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 40.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.300 | 2.000 | 0.700 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_ER | 2.700 | 3.000 | 0.300 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_H | 5.500 | 5.000 | 0.500 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.200 | 5.200 | 5.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.220 | 5.000 | -0.020 | 0.200 |
| predicted_SO | 9.000 | 9.000 | 9.000 | Pitching_SO | 3.050 | 3.000 | 5.950 | 6.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 2 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 8.0000 -> 9.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 5.6667 -> 5.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SO: 8.0000 -> 9.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_IP: 5.6667 -> 5.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "608372",
"player_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.6667,
"predicted_SO": 8.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 9.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 9.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.125,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 9.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.125,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 9.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.125,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 9.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.125,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 8.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 28.100 | 16.000 | 30.000 | 4.000 | 15.000 | 8.000 | 5.0824 | 1.2000 | 0.5647 | 1.0588 | 0.1412 | 0.5294 | 0.2823 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 54.000 | 31.000 | 59.000 | 11.000 | 33.000 | 13.000 | 5.1667 | 1.2963 | 0.5741 | 1.0926 | 0.2037 | 0.6111 | 0.2407 |
| season | 0.20 | 20 | 107.200 | 54.000 | 110.000 | 26.000 | 61.000 | 22.000 | 4.5139 | 1.2632 | 0.5016 | 1.0217 | 0.2415 | 0.5666 | 0.2043 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.2060 |
| predicted_ER | 3.0030 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.8959 |
| predicted_H | 5.7690 |
| predicted_HR | 1.2780 |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 3.5550 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2637 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0000 | 1.2060 | 1.5510 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 3.0000 | 3.0030 | 3.0017 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.8959 | 4.8959 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 6.0000 | 5.7690 | 5.8694 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 1.2780 | 0.7227 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 8.0000 | 3.5550 | 5.4864 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2637 | 1.2637 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 20 |
| Season rows before report date | 20 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 20 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.2 |
| H | 6 |
| R | 3 |
| ER | 3 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 9 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 25 |
| Pitches | 100 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 2 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 22 |
| Pitching_ER | 3 |
| Pitching_ERA | 4.51 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 5 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 7 |
| Pitching_H | 5 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 85 |
| Pitching_R | 3 |
| Pitching_SO | 3 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 49 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | L |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260805_TB@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 608372 |
| playerID | 608372 |
| playerName | Tomoyuki Sugano |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 13.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.348 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.397 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 13.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 18.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.9 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 80.177218833 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 95.226071448 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.255 | 0.000 | -0.255 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.255 | 1.000 | -0.255 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.764 | 1.000 | -0.764 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.693 | 1.000 | 0.307 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.655 | 1.000 | 1.345 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "657514",
"player_name": "Brennan Bernardino",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.2500 | 1.0000 | 0.2500 | 0.5000 | 0.5000 | 0.5000 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.100 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.9643 | 0.7500 | 0.1071 | 0.5357 | 0.2143 | 1.0714 | 0.1071 |
| season | 0.20 | 55 | 47.200 | 14.000 | 42.000 | 14.000 | 36.000 | 3.000 | 2.6434 | 1.1748 | 0.2937 | 0.8811 | 0.2937 | 0.7552 | 0.0629 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3240 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2780 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.7762 |
| predicted_H | 0.6500 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1420 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7420 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0801 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3240 | 0.1635 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2780 | 0.1403 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.7762 | 2.7762 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.6500 | 0.3280 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1420 | 0.0717 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 0.7420 | 1.3652 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0801 | 1.0801 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 55 |
| Season rows before report date | 55 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 55 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 15 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.64 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 14 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 9 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260808_COL@STL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 657514 |
| playerID | 657514 |
| playerName | Brennan Bernardino |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-08 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.288 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.305 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 31.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.4 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.592814225 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.821717254 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.600 | 0.000 | -0.600 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.400 | 1.000 | 1.600 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_H | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.920 | 1.000 | 0.080 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.300 | 1.000 | -1.300 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "605447",
"player_name": "Jordan Romano",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 5.4000 | 1.6000 | 0.6000 | 1.2000 | 0.4000 | 1.4000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.200 | 4.000 | 10.000 | 6.000 | 13.000 | 0.000 | 3.7241 | 1.6552 | 0.4138 | 1.0345 | 0.6207 | 1.3448 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 20 | 17.200 | 10.000 | 18.000 | 10.000 | 25.000 | 0.000 | 5.0943 | 1.5849 | 0.5660 | 1.0189 | 0.5660 | 1.4151 | 0.0000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4220 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5110 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.5968 |
| predicted_H | 1.0280 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0870 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1350 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4502 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4220 | 0.1698 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 2.0000 | 0.5110 | 1.4008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.5968 | 4.5968 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 3.0000 | 1.0280 | 2.2064 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0870 | 0.0350 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.1350 | 0.4567 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4502 | 1.4502 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 10 |
| Season rows before report date | 10 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 20 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 3 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 6 |
| Pitches | 22 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 5 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 6.62 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 22 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 17 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | S |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 6 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260808_COL@STL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 605447 |
| playerID | 605447 |
| playerName | Jordan Romano |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-08 |
| sl_k_percent | 28.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.346 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.307 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.8178264 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.351722449 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.596 | 1.000 | -0.596 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.638 | 0.000 | -0.638 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 1.106 | 0.000 | -1.106 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.936 | 0.200 | -0.836 | -0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.043 | 0.000 | -0.043 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 2 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 2 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "675848",
"player_name": "Juan Mejia",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.3333,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 3.6000 | 1.6000 | 0.4000 | 0.8000 | 0.8000 | 0.4000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 3.0000 | 1.5556 | 0.3333 | 0.8889 | 0.6667 | 0.5556 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 47 | 51.000 | 30.000 | 52.000 | 28.000 | 49.000 | 4.000 | 5.2941 | 1.5686 | 0.5882 | 1.0196 | 0.5490 | 0.9608 | 0.0784 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4610 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3450 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.9782 |
| predicted_H | 0.7080 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0460 |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5430 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4975 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4610 | 0.2356 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3450 | 0.1763 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.9782 | 3.9782 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.7080 | 0.3618 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0460 | 0.0235 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.1000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 0.5430 | 1.2555 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4975 | 1.4975 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 47 |
| Season rows before report date | 47 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 47 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 0.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 1 |
| Pitches | 15 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 5.29 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 3 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 1 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 13 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 6 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 1 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260808_COL@STL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 675848 |
| playerID | 675848 |
| playerName | Juan Mejia |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-08 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.324 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.324 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.8 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.888905616 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.204010205 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Mitch Bratt |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.1146 |
| ESPN Rank | 251 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.1654 |
| Avg Velo | 86.9588 |
| Avg Spin | 2321.7124 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 4.2000 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 4 |
| Pre BB | 4 |
| Pre SO | 4 |
| Season ERA | 3.9036 |
| Season WHIP | 1.5181 |
| Role Avg IP | 4.6110 |
| Recent Avg IP | 4.9330 |
| Last Start IP | 7 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "ARI",
"games": 128,
"wins": 68,
"losses": 60,
"win_pct": 0.5312,
"runs_scored": 593.0,
"runs_allowed": 571.0,
"run_differential": 22.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.1719,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6328,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4609,
"offense_index": 1.0314,
"defense_index": 1.0069,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 11.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0826
},
"opponent": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 128,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.3906,
"runs_scored": 621.0,
"runs_allowed": 737.0,
"run_differential": -116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.9062,
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"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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},
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},
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},
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}{
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}{
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}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Brandyn Garcia |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.5039 |
| ESPN Rank | 145 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2077 |
| Avg Velo | 93.6215 |
| Avg Spin | 2387.5959 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 1.7419 |
| Season WHIP | 0.6774 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
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"games": 128,
"wins": 68,
"losses": 60,
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},
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},
"opponent": {
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},
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},
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},
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"pitcher_id": "805299",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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},
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},
"components": {
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"regression_edge": -0.2286,
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},
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}
],
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},
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},
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"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "805299",
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"player_name": "Brandyn Garcia",
"team": "ARI",
"role": "pitcher",
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"metrics": {
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"whip_value": 0.8181,
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"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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},
"predicted_H": {
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}
}
}{
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"HR": 0,
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"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
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"3B": 0,
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"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
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},
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},
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}{
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"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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"primary_pitch": {
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"summary": {
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"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
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"rates": {
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},
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"rates": {
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},
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},
"per_game": {
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}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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"applied_metrics": {
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}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jonathan Loáisiga |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.2286 |
| ESPN Rank | 158 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2466 |
| Avg Velo | 94.3147 |
| Avg Spin | 2234.9399 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 2.8000 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1111 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
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"games": 128,
"wins": 68,
"losses": 60,
"win_pct": 0.5312,
"runs_scored": 593.0,
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"run_differential": 22.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.1719,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6328,
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"offense_index": 1.0314,
"defense_index": 1.0069,
"current_streak": "W2",
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"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
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},
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},
"opponent": {
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"wins": 50,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.3906,
"runs_scored": 621.0,
"runs_allowed": 737.0,
"run_differential": -116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.9062,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8516,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7578,
"offense_index": 1.0801,
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"current_streak": "L2",
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},
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},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.0314,
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"defense_strength": 0.0069,
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"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
},
"player_factors": {
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"run_prevention": 0.996,
"strikeout": 1.0032
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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"pitcher_id": "642528",
"profile": {
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"pitcher_id": "642528",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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"metrics": {
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"sweet_spot_percent": 29.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.9,
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"avg_best_speed": 75.1267,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.3913,
"whiff_percent": 23.4,
"swing_percent": 52.6
},
"league_medians": {
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"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": -0.1621,
"regression_edge": -0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8571,
"barrel_edge": 0.4889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4571,
"whiff_edge": -0.3,
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"pitch_design_score": 0.2466
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
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"pitcher_id": "642528",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 8,
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
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"strikeout_factor": 0.9812,
"walk_factor": 0.9623,
"homer_factor": 0.9495,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.004,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "642528",
"espn_id": 39807,
"player_name": "Jonathan Loaisiga",
"team": "ARI",
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"espn_rank": 158,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
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"gp_value": 50.0,
"gp_rank": 37,
"gs_value": 0.0,
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"era_value": 2.8521,
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"ip_value": 47.1,
"ip_rank": 252,
"h_value": 42.0,
"h_rank": 241,
"er_value": 15.0,
"er_rank": 350,
"hr_value": 3.0,
"hr_rank": 387,
"bb_value": 11.0,
"bb_rank": 413,
"k_value": 36.0,
"k_rank": 328,
"k_per_9_value": 6.8450704,
"k_per_9_rank": 35,
"whip_value": 1.1197,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.97,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9882,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 0.9882,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 0.9771,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 0.9886,
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}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
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"hot_streak": false,
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"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"SO": 10,
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"ERA": 4.655172413793104,
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"K9": 9.310344827586208,
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},
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"latest_game_date": "2026-08-04T00:00:00"
}{
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"pitcher_id": "642528",
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"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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"primary_pitch": {
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},
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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},
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},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
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"weights": {
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},
"effective_weights": {
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"windows": {
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},
"rates": {
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}
},
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},
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},
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},
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"rates": {
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}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_WHIP": 1.5233
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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},
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},
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}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Juan Morillo |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.7366 |
| ESPN Rank | 104 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2800 |
| Avg Velo | 95.1444 |
| Avg Spin | 2315.1506 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 2.5435 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9783 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "ARI",
"games": 128,
"wins": 68,
"losses": 60,
"win_pct": 0.5312,
"runs_scored": 593.0,
"runs_allowed": 571.0,
"run_differential": 22.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.1719,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6328,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4609,
"offense_index": 1.0314,
"defense_index": 1.0069,
"current_streak": "W2",
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"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
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"avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
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},
"available": true,
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},
"opponent": {
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"wins": 50,
"losses": 78,
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"runs_allowed": 737.0,
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"run_differential_per_game": -0.9062,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8516,
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"current_streak": "L2",
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},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.239
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.0314,
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"defense_strength": 0.0069,
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"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
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"player_factors": {
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"run_prevention": 0.996,
"strikeout": 1.0032
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "666661",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "666661",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 29.6,
"bb_percent": 8.5,
"woba": 0.246,
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"avg_best_speed": 73.4438,
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"league_medians": {
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"bb_percent": 8.9,
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"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
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"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": 0.8207,
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"xwoba_edge": 2.2,
"barrel_edge": 0.8,
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},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
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"pitcher_id": "666661",
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"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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"primary_pitch": {
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},
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"components": {
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},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
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"strikeout_factor": 1.0512,
"walk_factor": 0.9948,
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"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "666661",
"espn_id": 4722925,
"player_name": "Juan Morillo",
"team": "ARI",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 104,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
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"gp_value": 51.0,
"gp_rank": 30,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 2.4718,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 3.0,
"w_rank": 206,
"l_value": 4.0,
"l_rank": 138,
"sv_value": 1.0,
"sv_rank": 115,
"hld_value": 15.0,
"hld_rank": 23,
"ip_value": 47.1,
"ip_rank": 252,
"h_value": 32.0,
"h_rank": 338,
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"er_rank": 387,
"hr_value": 2.0,
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"bb_rank": 299,
"k_value": 56.0,
"k_rank": 189,
"k_per_9_value": 10.647887,
"k_per_9_rank": 20,
"whip_value": 1.014,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 1.47,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
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"factor": 0.9597,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9597,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 0.9967,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.9309,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 1.033,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 1,
"H": 4,
"BB": 3,
"SO": 12,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 0.84375,
"WHIP": 0.65625,
"K9": 10.125,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-03T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "666661",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 24,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 24,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 95.14441774555434,
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"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 24,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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},
"effective_weights": {
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},
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},
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},
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}
},
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},
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}
},
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},
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}
}
},
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}{
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},
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},
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"final": 0.809,
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},
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"predicted_ERA": {
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}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Kevin Ginkel |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0423 |
| ESPN Rank | 228 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.0204 |
| Avg Velo | 90.2763 |
| Avg Spin | 2392.3190 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 3.0423 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1197 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "ARI",
"games": 128,
"wins": 68,
"losses": 60,
"win_pct": 0.5312,
"runs_scored": 593.0,
"runs_allowed": 571.0,
"run_differential": 22.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.1719,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6328,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4609,
"offense_index": 1.0314,
"defense_index": 1.0069,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 11.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0826
},
"opponent": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 128,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.3906,
"runs_scored": 621.0,
"runs_allowed": 737.0,
"run_differential": -116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.9062,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8516,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7578,
"offense_index": 1.0801,
"defense_index": 0.7801,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_pct": 0.4,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.9,
"run_differential": -6.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.239
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.3216,
"offense_edge": 0.0314,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0801,
"defense_strength": 0.0069,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2199,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0099,
"run_prevention": 0.996,
"strikeout": 1.0032
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "656464",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656464",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 167.0,
"k_percent": 23.3,
"bb_percent": 7.4,
"woba": 0.289,
"xwoba": 0.304,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 41.4,
"avg_best_speed": 79.8061,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.2517,
"whiff_percent": 29.3,
"swing_percent": 50.1
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0309,
"command_and_miss": 0.3357,
"regression_edge": -0.4286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.2,
"barrel_edge": -0.4889,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.5286,
"whiff_edge": 0.5429,
"bb_edge": 0.375,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0204
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656464",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 5,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 5,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.27629024432072,
"release_spin_rate": 2392.319020623645,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 5,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.27629024432072,
"release_spin_rate": 2392.319020623645,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 90.2763,
"release_spin_rate": 2392.319,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.0204,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.1458,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.0423,
"sample_weight": 0.668,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9964,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0187,
"walk_factor": 0.98,
"homer_factor": 1.0362,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.015,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "656464",
"espn_id": 41432,
"player_name": "Kevin Ginkel",
"team": "ARI",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 228,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 228,
"gp_value": 53.0,
"gp_rank": 19,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 3.6,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 5.0,
"w_rank": 108,
"l_value": 3.0,
"l_rank": 192,
"sv_value": 1.0,
"sv_rank": 115,
"hld_value": 11.0,
"hld_rank": 51,
"ip_value": 50.0,
"ip_rank": 228,
"h_value": 42.0,
"h_rank": 241,
"er_value": 20.0,
"er_rank": 263,
"hr_value": 6.0,
"hr_rank": 227,
"bb_value": 15.0,
"bb_rank": 323,
"k_value": 47.0,
"k_rank": 254,
"k_per_9_value": 8.46,
"k_per_9_rank": 30,
"whip_value": 1.14,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.55,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9976,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9976,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9866,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0242,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0125,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 4,
"H": 9,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 3,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 3.6000000000000005,
"WHIP": 1.1,
"K9": 2.7000000000000006,
"HR9": 0.9000000000000001,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-01T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656464",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 5,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 5,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.27629024432072,
"release_spin_rate": 2392.319020623645,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 5,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.27629024432072,
"release_spin_rate": 2392.319020623645,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 90.2763,
"release_spin_rate": 2392.319,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.0204,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.1458,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 9.466,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6544,
"prior_weight": 0.3456
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "656464",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 50,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 4.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 21.0,
"Pitches": 71.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 0.2,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 4.2,
"Pitches": 14.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.6875,
"WHIP": 0.9375,
"ER_per_IP": 0.1875,
"H_per_IP": 0.75,
"BB_per_IP": 0.1875,
"SO_per_IP": 0.1875,
"HR_per_IP": 0.1875
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 9.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 40.0,
"Pitches": 130.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 0.9,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 0.3,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 4.0,
"Pitches": 13.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.6,
"WHIP": 1.1,
"ER_per_IP": 0.4,
"H_per_IP": 0.9,
"BB_per_IP": 0.2,
"SO_per_IP": 0.3,
"HR_per_IP": 0.1
}
},
"season": {
"games": 50,
"totals": {
"IP": 47.1,
"ER": 16.0,
"R": 19.0,
"H": 40.0,
"BB": 13.0,
"SO": 43.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 189.0,
"Pitches": 733.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.32,
"R": 0.38,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.26,
"SO": 0.86,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 3.78,
"Pitches": 14.66
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.0423,
"WHIP": 1.1197,
"ER_per_IP": 0.33803,
"H_per_IP": 0.84507,
"BB_per_IP": 0.27465,
"SO_per_IP": 0.90845,
"HR_per_IP": 0.10563
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.363,
"predicted_H": 0.874,
"predicted_BB": 0.261,
"predicted_SO": 0.574,
"predicted_HR": 0.143,
"predicted_ERA": 3.2703,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.1352
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.496,
"form_weight": 0.504,
"form_reliability": 0.6544,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 9.466,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6544,
"prior_weight": 0.3456
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.363,
"final": 0.679,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.874,
"final": 1.4325,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.261,
"final": 0.1315,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.574,
"final": 0.2893,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.143,
"final": 0.0721,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.2703,
"final": 3.2703,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.1352,
"final": 1.1352,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.242 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.231 | 1.000 | -0.231 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.003 | 1.000 | -0.003 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.538 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.646 | 4.000 | 0.354 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.304 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.315 | 0.500 | -0.065 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.473 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.526 | 1.000 | -0.526 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.012 | 0.000 | -0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.077 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.148 | 2.000 | -0.148 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.088 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.102 | 0.000 | -0.102 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.386 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.400 | 0.600 | -0.150 | -0.350 |
| predicted_R | 0.538 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.597 | 1.000 | -0.597 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.571 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.548 | 1.000 | -0.548 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.453 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.463 | 1.250 | -0.213 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.604 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.615 | 0.000 | 0.385 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.5380 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.4620, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.5710 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5710, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.5380 -> 3.6280 (boost 0.0900, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4772 -> 0.4933 (boost 0.0161, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.5775 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4225, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.4474 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4474, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.323 HR/AB=0.024 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5603 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4397, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4933 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.2433, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4933 (boost 0.2433, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "672515",
"player_name": "Gabriel Moreno",
"position": "DH",
"team": "ARI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.242,
"predicted_3B": 0.011,
"predicted_AB": 3.538,
"predicted_AVG": 0.304,
"predicted_BB": 0.473,
"predicted_H": 1.077,
"predicted_HR": 0.088,
"predicted_OBP": 0.386,
"predicted_R": 0.538,
"predicted_RBI": 0.571,
"predicted_SLG": 0.453,
"predicted_SO": 0.604
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2921,
"predicted_3B": 0.0311,
"predicted_AB": 3.628,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3105,
"predicted_BB": 0.4426,
"predicted_H": 1.128,
"predicted_HBP": 0.046,
"predicted_HR": 0.0841,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3862,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3232,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3975,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4933,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3232,
"delta": 0.0732,
"percent_delta": 0.2929,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3975,
"delta": 0.1475,
"percent_delta": 0.5901,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4933,
"delta": 0.2433,
"percent_delta": 0.9733,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4933,
"delta": 0.2433,
"percent_delta": 0.9733,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.242,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.242,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.011,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.538,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.462,
"percent_delta": 0.1306,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.304,
"after": 0.3232,
"delta": 0.0192,
"percent_delta": 0.0632,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.473,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.473,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.077,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.077,
"percent_delta": -0.0715,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.088,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.088,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.386,
"after": 0.3975,
"delta": 0.0115,
"percent_delta": 0.0298,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.538,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.538,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.571,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.571,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.453,
"after": 0.4933,
"delta": 0.0403,
"percent_delta": 0.089,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.604,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.396,
"percent_delta": 0.6556,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.538,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.462,
"percent_delta": 0.1306,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.571,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.571,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.242 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.538 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.304 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.473 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.077 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.088 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.386 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.538 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.571 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.453 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.604 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.292 | 0.050 |
| predicted_3B | 0.031 | 0.020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.628 | 0.090 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.310 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.443 | -0.030 |
| predicted_H | 1.128 | 0.051 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.046 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.084 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.386 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.525 | -0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.597 | 0.026 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.477 | 0.024 |
| predicted_SO | 0.584 | -0.020 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.292 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.031 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.628 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.323 | 0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.447 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 1.173 | 0.045 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.046 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.088 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.398 | 0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.560 | 0.035 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.637 | 0.040 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.493 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 0.578 | -0.006 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.323 HR/AB=0.024
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.292 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.031 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.372 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.073 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.447 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.173 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.088 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.148 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.440 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.363 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.243 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.422 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 9.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.4286 | 0.4545 | 0.7143 | 0.4286 | 0.0000 | 0.1429 | 0.0476 | 0.0476 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 11.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 0.2821 | 0.3556 | 0.5128 | 0.2821 | 0.0256 | 0.2308 | 0.1026 | 0.1538 |
| season | 0.60 | 91 | - | 322.000 | 98.000 | 22.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 52.000 | 49.000 | 43.000 | 55.000 | 0.3043 | 0.3846 | 0.4534 | 0.3044 | 0.0248 | 0.1615 | 0.1335 | 0.1708 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.3590 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0580 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7480 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3191 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4020 |
| predicted_H | 1.1960 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0460 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0790 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3864 |
| predicted_R | 0.5080 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6310 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5095 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5570 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2420 | 0.3590 | 0.2921 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0110 | 0.0580 | 0.0311 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5380 | 3.7480 | 3.6280 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3040 | 0.3191 | 0.3105 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4730 | 0.4020 | 0.4426 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0770 | 1.1960 | 1.1280 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0460 | 0.0460 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0880 | 0.0790 | 0.0841 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3860 | 0.3864 | 0.3862 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5380 | 0.5080 | 0.5251 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5710 | 0.6310 | 0.5967 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4530 | 0.5095 | 0.4772 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6040 | 0.5570 | 0.5839 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 325 |
| Season rows before report date | 325 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 91 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.304 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 1 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 5 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260810_COL@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 672515 |
| playerID | 672515 |
| playerName | Gabriel Moreno |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | ARI |
| teamID | 1 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.362 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.371 |
| sl_xba | 0.295 |
| sl_xslg | 0.454 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 15.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.207 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.210 | 1.000 | -0.210 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.112 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.124 | 0.000 | -0.124 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.590 | 4.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.824 | 3.000 | 0.176 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.206 | 0.250 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.254 | 0.333 | -0.004 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.491 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.507 | 0.000 | -0.507 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.020 | 0.000 | -0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.940 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.971 | 1.000 | 0.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.156 | 0.000 | -0.156 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.345 | 0.500 | -0.095 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.621 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.633 | 1.000 | -0.633 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.600 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.527 | 1.000 | -0.527 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.454 | 0.250 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.496 | 0.667 | -0.246 | -0.417 |
| predicted_SO | 0.974 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.011 | 0.000 | 0.989 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.9740 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0260, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.6210 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6210, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_AB: 4.5900 -> 4.2458 (deboost -0.3442, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2095 -> 0.2166 (boost 0.0071, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4410 -> 0.4194 (deboost -0.0216, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | predicted_AB: 4.2458 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.7542, better) | predicted_2B: 0.2217 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2217, worse) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.030 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6645 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3355, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_OBP: 0.2931 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0399, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4194 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.2194, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_AB: 5.0000 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2000 -> 0.4194 (boost 0.2194, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3330 -> 0.2931 (deboost -0.0399, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "682998",
"player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
"position": "RF",
"team": "ARI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"predicted_BB": 0.491,
"predicted_H": 0.94,
"predicted_HR": 0.15,
"predicted_OBP": 0.308,
"predicted_R": 0.621,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6,
"predicted_SLG": 0.454,
"predicted_SO": 0.974
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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"predicted_3B": 0.1159,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.092,
"predicted_HR": 0.1305,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3062,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.5497,
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"predicted_SO": 0.9588
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},
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"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
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"season": 116
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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{
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{
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"before": 0.2931,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.0399,
"percent_delta": 0.1361,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4194,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.2194,
"percent_delta": -0.5231,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2931,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.0399,
"percent_delta": 0.1361,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4194,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.2194,
"percent_delta": -0.5231,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.2,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.2,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2166,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2931,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4194,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.2166,
"delta": 0.0166,
"percent_delta": 0.0829,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2931,
"delta": -0.0399,
"percent_delta": -0.1199,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.4194,
"delta": 0.2194,
"percent_delta": 1.0972,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.4194,
"delta": 0.2194,
"percent_delta": 1.0972,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2931,
"delta": -0.0399,
"percent_delta": -0.1199,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.207,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.207,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.112,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.112,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.59,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.59,
"percent_delta": -0.1285,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.206,
"after": 0.2166,
"delta": 0.0106,
"percent_delta": 0.0515,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.491,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.491,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.94,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.06,
"percent_delta": 0.0638,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.15,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.15,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.308,
"after": 0.2931,
"delta": -0.0149,
"percent_delta": -0.0484,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.621,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.621,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.6,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.454,
"after": 0.4194,
"delta": -0.0346,
"percent_delta": -0.0762,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.974,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.026,
"percent_delta": 1.0534,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 12,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.974,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.026,
"percent_delta": 1.0534,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.621,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.621,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.207 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.112 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.590 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.206 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.491 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.940 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.621 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.600 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.454 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.974 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.222 | 0.015 |
| predicted_3B | 0.116 | 0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 4.246 | -0.344 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.455 | -0.036 |
| predicted_H | 0.884 | -0.055 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.092 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.131 | -0.019 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.306 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.623 | 0.002 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.550 | -0.050 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.441 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.959 | -0.015 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.222 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.116 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.246 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.217 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.460 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 0.919 | 0.035 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.092 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.136 | 0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.293 | -0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.664 | 0.042 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.587 | 0.037 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.419 | -0.022 |
| predicted_SO | 0.948 | -0.010 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.030
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.222 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.116 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.754 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | -0.017 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.540 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.081 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.136 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.040 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.336 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.413 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.200 | -0.219 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.052 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.1579 | 0.2381 | 0.3684 | 0.1579 | 0.0000 | 0.1053 | 0.0526 | 0.2105 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 10.000 | 0.1795 | 0.2727 | 0.3590 | 0.1795 | 0.0256 | 0.1538 | 0.1026 | 0.2564 |
| season | 0.60 | 116 | - | 436.000 | 105.000 | 24.000 | 13.000 | 16.000 | 55.000 | 72.000 | 57.000 | 113.000 | 0.2408 | 0.3360 | 0.4656 | 0.2408 | 0.0367 | 0.1262 | 0.1307 | 0.2592 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2410 |
| predicted_3B | 0.1210 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7960 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2140 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4070 |
| predicted_H | 0.8120 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0920 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1050 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3039 |
| predicted_R | 0.6250 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4840 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4239 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9390 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2070 | 0.2410 | 0.2217 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.1120 | 0.1210 | 0.1159 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.5900 | 3.7960 | 4.2458 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2060 | 0.2140 | 0.2095 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4910 | 0.4070 | 0.4546 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9400 | 0.8120 | 0.8845 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0920 | 0.0920 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1500 | 0.1050 | 0.1305 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3080 | 0.3039 | 0.3062 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6210 | 0.6250 | 0.6227 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6000 | 0.4840 | 0.5497 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4540 | 0.4239 | 0.4410 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9740 | 0.9390 | 0.9588 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 442 |
| Season rows before report date | 442 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 116 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.241 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 1 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260810_COL@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 682998 |
| playerID | 682998 |
| playerName | Corbin Carroll |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | ARI |
| teamID | 1 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.345 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.34 |
| sl_xba | 0.247 |
| sl_xslg | 0.437 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 48.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.167 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.167 | 0.000 | -0.167 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.500 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.333 | 3.000 | 0.667 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.191 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.150 | 0.000 | 0.100 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.537 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.833 | 1.000 | -0.833 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.670 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.500 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | 0.250 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.320 | 0.250 | -0.070 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.444 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.333 | 1.000 | 0.667 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.167 | 0.000 | -0.167 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.313 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.050 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.796 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.500 | 1.000 | 0.500 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_R: 0.4440 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5560, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.5370 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5370, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3130 -> 0.3077 (deboost -0.0053, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3077 -> 0.3210 (boost 0.0133, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.4934 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.5066, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3250 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3250, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.020 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4707 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4707, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.3099 -> 0.4000 (boost 0.0901, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3210 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.0710, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3210 (boost 0.0710, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.4000 -> 0.3099 (deboost -0.0901, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "663457",
"player_name": "Lars Nootbaar",
"position": "LF",
"team": "ARI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.167,
"predicted_3B": 0.019,
"predicted_AB": 3.5,
"predicted_AVG": 0.191,
"predicted_BB": 0.537,
"predicted_H": 0.67,
"predicted_HR": 0.08,
"predicted_OBP": 0.303,
"predicted_R": 0.444,
"predicted_RBI": 0.31,
"predicted_SLG": 0.313,
"predicted_SO": 0.796
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1724,
"predicted_3B": 0.0161,
"predicted_AB": 3.4934,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1955,
"predicted_BB": 0.5333,
"predicted_H": 0.6836,
"predicted_HBP": 0.004,
"predicted_HR": 0.066,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3047,
"predicted_R": 0.4411,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3046,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3077,
"predicted_SO": 0.7865
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.167,
"after": 0.1724,
"delta": 0.0054,
"percent_delta": 0.0323,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0161,
"delta": -0.0029,
"percent_delta": -0.1526,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5,
"after": 3.4934,
"delta": -0.0066,
"percent_delta": -0.0019,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.191,
"after": 0.1955,
"delta": 0.0045,
"percent_delta": 0.0236,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.537,
"after": 0.5333,
"delta": -0.0037,
"percent_delta": -0.0069,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.67,
"after": 0.6836,
"delta": 0.0136,
"percent_delta": 0.0203,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.066,
"delta": -0.014,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.303,
"after": 0.3047,
"delta": 0.0017,
"percent_delta": 0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.444,
"after": 0.4411,
"delta": -0.0029,
"percent_delta": -0.0065,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.3046,
"delta": -0.0054,
"percent_delta": -0.0174,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.313,
"after": 0.3077,
"delta": -0.0053,
"percent_delta": -0.0169,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.796,
"after": 0.7865,
"delta": -0.0095,
"percent_delta": -0.0119,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.313,
"after": 0.3077,
"delta": -0.0053,
"percent_delta": -0.0169,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 54
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1724,
"predicted_3B": 0.0161,
"predicted_AB": 3.4934,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2034,
"predicted_BB": 0.5391,
"predicted_H": 0.7107,
"predicted_HBP": 0.004,
"predicted_HR": 0.0688,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3099,
"predicted_R": 0.4707,
"predicted_RBI": 0.325,
"predicted_SLG": 0.321,
"predicted_SO": 0.7779
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1724,
"after": 0.1724,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0161,
"after": 0.0161,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4934,
"after": 3.4934,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1955,
"after": 0.2034,
"delta": 0.0079,
"percent_delta": 0.0404,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5333,
"after": 0.5391,
"delta": 0.0058,
"percent_delta": 0.0109,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6836,
"after": 0.7107,
"delta": 0.0271,
"percent_delta": 0.0396,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.004,
"after": 0.004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.066,
"after": 0.0688,
"delta": 0.0028,
"percent_delta": 0.0424,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3047,
"after": 0.3099,
"delta": 0.0052,
"percent_delta": 0.0171,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4411,
"after": 0.4707,
"delta": 0.0296,
"percent_delta": 0.0671,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3046,
"after": 0.325,
"delta": 0.0204,
"percent_delta": 0.067,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3077,
"after": 0.321,
"delta": 0.0133,
"percent_delta": 0.0432,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7865,
"after": 0.7779,
"delta": -0.0086,
"percent_delta": -0.0109,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3077,
"after": 0.321,
"delta": 0.0133,
"percent_delta": 0.0432,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.020",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1724,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1724,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0161,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0161,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4934,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.5066,
"percent_delta": 0.145,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5391,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4609,
"percent_delta": 0.8549,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7107,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2893,
"percent_delta": 0.4071,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.004,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.004,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0688,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0688,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.325,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7779,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2221,
"percent_delta": 0.2855,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4934,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.5066,
"percent_delta": 0.145,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.325,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4707,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4707,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.25,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2034,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3099,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.321,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.3099,
"delta": -0.0901,
"percent_delta": -0.2252,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": 0.071,
"percent_delta": 0.2842,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
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},
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"delta": -0.0901,
"percent_delta": -0.2252,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.167,
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"delta": -0.167,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": -0.019,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 0.5,
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"percent_delta": 0.0649,
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},
{
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"delta": -0.537,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.67,
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"delta": 0.33,
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"material": true
},
{
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"delta": -0.08,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.303,
"after": 0.3099,
"delta": 0.0069,
"percent_delta": 0.0228,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.444,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.556,
"percent_delta": 1.2523,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.31,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.313,
"after": 0.321,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0256,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.796,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.204,
"percent_delta": 0.2563,
"direction": "boost",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 7,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.444,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.556,
"percent_delta": 1.2523,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.537,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.537,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.167 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.191 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.537 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.670 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.444 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.313 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.796 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.172 | 0.005 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.493 | -0.007 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.196 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.533 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.684 | 0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.004 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.066 | -0.014 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.441 | -0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.305 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.308 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 0.786 | -0.010 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.172 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.493 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.203 | 0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.539 | 0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.711 | 0.027 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.069 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.471 | 0.030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.325 | 0.020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.321 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.778 | -0.009 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.020
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.172 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.507 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.047 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.461 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.289 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.069 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.400 | 0.090 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.471 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.325 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.222 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 0.1667 | 0.2857 | 0.2222 | 0.1667 | 0.0000 | 0.0556 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 8.000 | 0.1351 | 0.2558 | 0.1892 | 0.1351 | 0.0000 | 0.0541 | 0.1622 | 0.2162 |
| season | 0.60 | 54 | - | 178.000 | 40.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 17.000 | 24.000 | 29.000 | 43.000 | 0.2247 | 0.3317 | 0.3371 | 0.2247 | 0.0169 | 0.0955 | 0.1629 | 0.2416 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1800 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4840 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2019 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5280 |
| predicted_H | 0.7030 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0040 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0460 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3071 |
| predicted_R | 0.4370 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2970 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7730 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1670 | 0.1800 | 0.1724 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0190 | 0.0120 | 0.0161 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5000 | 3.4840 | 3.4934 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1910 | 0.2019 | 0.1955 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5370 | 0.5280 | 0.5333 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6700 | 0.7030 | 0.6836 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0040 | 0.0040 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.0460 | 0.0660 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3030 | 0.3071 | 0.3047 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4440 | 0.4370 | 0.4411 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3100 | 0.2970 | 0.3046 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3130 | 0.3002 | 0.3077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7960 | 0.7730 | 0.7865 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 6 |
| Season rows before report date | 6 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 54 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.225 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260810_COL@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663457 |
| playerID | 663457 |
| playerName | Lars Nootbaar |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | ARI |
| teamID | 1 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.303 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.329 |
| sl_xba | 0.238 |
| sl_xslg | 0.41 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 49.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 5.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 18.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 36.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.143 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.204 | 0.000 | -0.204 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.036 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.102 | 4.000 | 0.898 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.235 | 0.000 | 0.015 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.232 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.279 | 0.000 | -0.279 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.088 | 0.000 | -0.088 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.696 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.728 | 0.000 | 0.272 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.107 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.122 | 0.000 | -0.122 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.284 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.292 | 0.000 | -0.042 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.357 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.354 | 0.000 | -0.354 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.464 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.599 | 0.000 | -0.599 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.382 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.419 | 0.000 | -0.169 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.768 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.735 | 1.000 | 1.265 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.7680 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.2320, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.4640 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4640, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.0360 -> 3.1944 (boost 0.1584, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3820 -> 0.3753 (deboost -0.0067, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3753 -> 0.3882 (boost 0.0129, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.7738 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2262, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4698 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4698, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3962 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3962, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2422 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0908, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3882 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0552, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.3882 (boost 0.0552, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2422 (deboost -0.0908, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "694374",
"player_name": "Tim Tawa",
"position": "1B",
"team": "ARI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.036,
"predicted_AVG": 0.229,
"predicted_BB": 0.232,
"predicted_H": 0.696,
"predicted_HR": 0.107,
"predicted_OBP": 0.284,
"predicted_R": 0.357,
"predicted_RBI": 0.464,
"predicted_SLG": 0.382,
"predicted_SO": 0.768
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1279,
"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 3.1944,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2326,
"predicted_BB": 0.2439,
"predicted_H": 0.7443,
"predicted_HBP": 0.004,
"predicted_HR": 0.1078,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2862,
"predicted_R": 0.3713,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4403,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3753,
"predicted_SO": 0.8499
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.143,
"after": 0.1279,
"delta": -0.0151,
"percent_delta": -0.1056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0008,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.036,
"after": 3.1944,
"delta": 0.1584,
"percent_delta": 0.0522,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.229,
"after": 0.2326,
"delta": 0.0036,
"percent_delta": 0.0157,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.2439,
"delta": 0.0119,
"percent_delta": 0.0513,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.696,
"after": 0.7443,
"delta": 0.0483,
"percent_delta": 0.0694,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.107,
"after": 0.1078,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.0075,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.284,
"after": 0.2862,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.0077,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.357,
"after": 0.3713,
"delta": 0.0143,
"percent_delta": 0.0401,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.464,
"after": 0.4403,
"delta": -0.0237,
"percent_delta": -0.0511,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.382,
"after": 0.3753,
"delta": -0.0067,
"percent_delta": -0.0175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.768,
"after": 0.8499,
"delta": 0.0819,
"percent_delta": 0.1066,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 3.036,
"after": 3.1944,
"delta": 0.1584,
"percent_delta": 0.0522,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.382,
"after": 0.3753,
"delta": -0.0067,
"percent_delta": -0.0175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 56
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1279,
"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 3.1944,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2422,
"predicted_BB": 0.2466,
"predicted_H": 0.7738,
"predicted_HBP": 0.004,
"predicted_HR": 0.1123,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2965,
"predicted_R": 0.3962,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4698,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3882,
"predicted_SO": 0.8406
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1279,
"after": 0.1279,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0008,
"after": 0.0008,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.1944,
"after": 3.1944,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2326,
"after": 0.2422,
"delta": 0.0096,
"percent_delta": 0.0413,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2439,
"after": 0.2466,
"delta": 0.0027,
"percent_delta": 0.0111,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7443,
"after": 0.7738,
"delta": 0.0295,
"percent_delta": 0.0396,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.004,
"after": 0.004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1078,
"after": 0.1123,
"delta": 0.0045,
"percent_delta": 0.0417,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2862,
"after": 0.2965,
"delta": 0.0103,
"percent_delta": 0.036,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3713,
"after": 0.3962,
"delta": 0.0249,
"percent_delta": 0.0671,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4403,
"after": 0.4698,
"delta": 0.0295,
"percent_delta": 0.067,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3753,
"after": 0.3882,
"delta": 0.0129,
"percent_delta": 0.0344,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8499,
"after": 0.8406,
"delta": -0.0093,
"percent_delta": -0.0109,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3753,
"after": 0.3882,
"delta": 0.0129,
"percent_delta": 0.0344,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.035",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1279,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1279,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0008,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0008,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.1944,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.1944,
"percent_delta": -0.0609,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2466,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2466,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7738,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2262,
"percent_delta": 0.2923,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.004,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.004,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1123,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1123,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4698,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4698,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8406,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1594,
"percent_delta": 0.1896,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7738,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2262,
"percent_delta": 0.2923,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4698,
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{
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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},
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},
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],
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},
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
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},
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_SLG": 0.3882,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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}
],
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}
},
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}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.464,
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},
{
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"before": 0.382,
"after": 0.3882,
"delta": 0.0062,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 5,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.143 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.036 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.232 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.696 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.107 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.284 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.357 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.464 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.382 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.768 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.128 | -0.015 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.194 | 0.158 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.244 | 0.012 |
| predicted_H | 0.744 | 0.048 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.004 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.108 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.286 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.371 | 0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | -0.024 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.375 | -0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.850 | 0.082 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.128 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.194 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.242 | 0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.247 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.774 | 0.030 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.112 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | 0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.396 | 0.025 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.470 | 0.029 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.388 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.841 | -0.009 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.128 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.194 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.091 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.247 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.226 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.112 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.037 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.396 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.470 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.055 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.159 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 0.2105 | 0.2857 | 0.2105 | 0.2105 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1053 | 0.4210 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 11.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 0.2821 | 0.3095 | 0.4359 | 0.2821 | 0.0513 | 0.1282 | 0.0513 | 0.2821 |
| season | 0.60 | 56 | - | 170.000 | 39.000 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 26.000 | 20.000 | 13.000 | 43.000 | 0.2294 | 0.2796 | 0.3824 | 0.2294 | 0.0353 | 0.1529 | 0.0765 | 0.2529 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1060 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4230 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2378 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2610 |
| predicted_H | 0.8140 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0040 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1090 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2894 |
| predicted_R | 0.3920 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4060 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3657 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9680 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1430 | 0.1060 | 0.1279 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0020 | 0.0008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.0360 | 3.4230 | 3.1944 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2290 | 0.2378 | 0.2326 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2320 | 0.2610 | 0.2439 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6960 | 0.8140 | 0.7443 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0040 | 0.0040 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1070 | 0.1090 | 0.1078 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2840 | 0.2894 | 0.2862 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3570 | 0.3920 | 0.3713 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4640 | 0.4060 | 0.4403 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3820 | 0.3657 | 0.3753 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7680 | 0.9680 | 0.8499 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 147 |
| Season rows before report date | 147 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 56 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.229 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B-3B |
| gameID | 20260810_COL@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 694374 |
| playerID | 694374 |
| playerName | Tim Tawa |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | ARI |
| teamID | 1 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.297 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.295 |
| sl_xba | 0.234 |
| sl_xslg | 0.38 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.174 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.185 | 0.000 | -0.185 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.033 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.036 | 0.000 | 0.964 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.522 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.780 | 1.000 | 0.220 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.272 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.284 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.217 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.241 | 0.000 | -0.241 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.957 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.074 | 0.000 | 0.926 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.076 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.095 | 0.000 | -0.095 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.329 | 0.000 | 0.171 | 0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.489 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.592 | 0.000 | 0.408 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.554 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.637 | 0.000 | 0.363 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | 1.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.428 | 0.000 | 0.572 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.370 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.402 | 0.000 | 0.598 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 9 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 8 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.9570 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0430, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.2170 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2170, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | predicted_SO: 0.3700 -> 0.4314 (boost 0.0614, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.5220 -> 3.4102 (deboost -0.1118, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4035 -> 0.4172 (boost 0.0137, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_AB: 3.4102 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.5898, better) | predicted_SO: 0.4267 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4267, better) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.019 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4686 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4686, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4172 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1672, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | predicted_3B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4172 (boost 0.1672, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "545121",
"player_name": "Ildemaro Vargas",
"position": "SS",
"team": "ARI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.174,
"predicted_3B": 0.033,
"predicted_AB": 3.522,
"predicted_AVG": 0.272,
"predicted_BB": 0.217,
"predicted_H": 0.957,
"predicted_HR": 0.076,
"predicted_OBP": 0.314,
"predicted_R": 0.489,
"predicted_RBI": 0.554,
"predicted_SLG": 0.404,
"predicted_SO": 0.37
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2,
"predicted_3B": 0.0266,
"predicted_AB": 3.4102,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2736,
"predicted_BB": 0.217,
"predicted_H": 0.9323,
"predicted_HBP": 0.008,
"predicted_HR": 0.0641,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3175,
"predicted_R": 0.4391,
"predicted_RBI": 0.49,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4035,
"predicted_SO": 0.4314
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.174,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": 0.026,
"percent_delta": 0.1494,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.033,
"after": 0.0266,
"delta": -0.0064,
"percent_delta": -0.1939,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.522,
"after": 3.4102,
"delta": -0.1118,
"percent_delta": -0.0317,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.272,
"after": 0.2736,
"delta": 0.0016,
"percent_delta": 0.0059,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.217,
"after": 0.217,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.957,
"after": 0.9323,
"delta": -0.0247,
"percent_delta": -0.0258,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.076,
"after": 0.0641,
"delta": -0.0119,
"percent_delta": -0.1566,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.314,
"after": 0.3175,
"delta": 0.0035,
"percent_delta": 0.0111,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.489,
"after": 0.4391,
"delta": -0.0499,
"percent_delta": -0.102,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.554,
"after": 0.49,
"delta": -0.064,
"percent_delta": -0.1155,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.404,
"after": 0.4035,
"delta": -0.0005,
"percent_delta": -0.0012,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.4314,
"delta": 0.0614,
"percent_delta": 0.1659,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.4314,
"delta": 0.0614,
"percent_delta": 0.1659,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.522,
"after": 3.4102,
"delta": -0.1118,
"percent_delta": -0.0317,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 92
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2,
"predicted_3B": 0.0266,
"predicted_AB": 3.4102,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2842,
"predicted_BB": 0.2194,
"predicted_H": 0.9692,
"predicted_HBP": 0.008,
"predicted_HR": 0.0668,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3275,
"predicted_R": 0.4686,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5229,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4172,
"predicted_SO": 0.4267
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0266,
"after": 0.0266,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4102,
"after": 3.4102,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2736,
"after": 0.2842,
"delta": 0.0106,
"percent_delta": 0.0387,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.217,
"after": 0.2194,
"delta": 0.0024,
"percent_delta": 0.0111,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9323,
"after": 0.9692,
"delta": 0.0369,
"percent_delta": 0.0396,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.008,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0641,
"after": 0.0668,
"delta": 0.0027,
"percent_delta": 0.0421,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3175,
"after": 0.3275,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.0315,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4391,
"after": 0.4686,
"delta": 0.0295,
"percent_delta": 0.0672,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.49,
"after": 0.5229,
"delta": 0.0329,
"percent_delta": 0.0671,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4035,
"after": 0.4172,
"delta": 0.0137,
"percent_delta": 0.034,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.4314,
"after": 0.4267,
"delta": -0.0047,
"percent_delta": -0.0109,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4035,
"after": 0.4172,
"delta": 0.0137,
"percent_delta": 0.034,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.019",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.217,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.217,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.957,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.043,
"percent_delta": 1.0899,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.076,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.076,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.314,
"after": 0.3275,
"delta": 0.0135,
"percent_delta": 0.043,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.489,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.511,
"percent_delta": 1.045,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.554,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.446,
"percent_delta": 0.8051,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.404,
"after": 0.4172,
"delta": 0.0132,
"percent_delta": 0.0327,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.63,
"percent_delta": 1.7027,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 12,
"boosted_metrics": 9,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 8,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.957,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.043,
"percent_delta": 1.0899,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.217,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.217,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.174 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.522 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.272 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.217 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.957 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.076 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.489 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.554 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.370 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | 0.026 |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | -0.112 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.274 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.217 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.932 | -0.025 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.008 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.064 | -0.012 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.439 | -0.050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.490 | -0.064 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.431 | 0.061 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.284 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.219 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.969 | 0.037 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.067 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.328 | 0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.469 | 0.030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.523 | 0.033 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.417 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 0.427 | -0.005 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.019
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.200 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.027 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.590 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.034 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.219 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.031 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.067 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.078 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.469 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.477 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.167 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.427 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 13.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.2308 | 0.2857 | 0.3846 | 0.2308 | 0.0000 | 0.0769 | 0.0769 | 0.3077 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 29.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.3448 | 0.3871 | 0.4138 | 0.3448 | 0.0000 | 0.0690 | 0.0690 | 0.1379 |
| season | 0.60 | 92 | - | 324.000 | 88.000 | 16.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 51.000 | 45.000 | 20.000 | 34.000 | 0.2716 | 0.3150 | 0.4043 | 0.2716 | 0.0216 | 0.1574 | 0.0617 | 0.1049 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2350 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0180 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2600 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2757 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2170 |
| predicted_H | 0.8990 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0080 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0480 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3221 |
| predicted_R | 0.3720 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4040 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4028 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5140 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1740 | 0.2350 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0330 | 0.0180 | 0.0266 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5220 | 3.2600 | 3.4102 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2720 | 0.2757 | 0.2736 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2170 | 0.2170 | 0.2170 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9570 | 0.8990 | 0.9323 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0080 | 0.0080 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0760 | 0.0480 | 0.0641 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3140 | 0.3221 | 0.3175 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4890 | 0.3720 | 0.4391 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5540 | 0.4040 | 0.4900 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4040 | 0.4028 | 0.4035 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.3700 | 0.5140 | 0.4314 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 336 |
| Season rows before report date | 336 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 92 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.272 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH-1B |
| gameID | 20260803_SD@ARI |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 545121 |
| note | Grounded into a forceout for Kepler in the 7th. |
| playerID | 545121 |
| playerName | Ildemaro Vargas |
| pos | 1B |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | ARI |
| teamID | 1 |
| game_date | 2026-08-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 10.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.317 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.316 |
| sl_xba | 0.286 |
| sl_xslg | 0.388 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 9.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 15.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.177 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.213 | 0.000 | 0.787 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.670 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.554 | 4.000 | 0.446 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.246 | 0.500 | 0.004 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.354 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.377 | 0.000 | -0.377 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.850 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.874 | 2.000 | 0.126 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.210 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.151 | 1.000 | -0.151 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.302 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.326 | 0.500 | -0.076 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.487 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.533 | 1.000 | 0.467 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.650 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.536 | 4.000 | 1.464 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.431 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.434 | 1.250 | 0.066 | -0.750 |
| predicted_SO | 0.796 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.846 | 0.000 | 1.154 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 9 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 2 |
| Better Metrics | 8 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.6500 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3500, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.3540 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3540, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4310 -> 0.4486 (boost 0.0176, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4486 -> 0.4773 (boost 0.0287, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | predicted_AB: 3.6213 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.3787, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3479 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3479, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.064 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5229 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4771, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2414 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0086, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4773 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.2273, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4773 (boost 0.2273, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2414 (deboost -0.0086, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "571448",
"player_name": "Nolan Arenado",
"position": "3B",
"team": "ARI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.177,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.67,
"predicted_AVG": 0.232,
"predicted_BB": 0.354,
"predicted_H": 0.85,
"predicted_HR": 0.21,
"predicted_OBP": 0.302,
"predicted_R": 0.487,
"predicted_RBI": 0.65,
"predicted_SLG": 0.431,
"predicted_SO": 0.796
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1498,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.6213,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2324,
"predicted_BB": 0.3441,
"predicted_H": 0.8409,
"predicted_HBP": 0.056,
"predicted_HR": 0.2251,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3039,
"predicted_R": 0.49,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6504,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4486,
"predicted_SO": 0.7598
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.177,
"after": 0.1498,
"delta": -0.0272,
"percent_delta": -0.1537,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.67,
"after": 3.6213,
"delta": -0.0487,
"percent_delta": -0.0133,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.2324,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.0017,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.354,
"after": 0.3441,
"delta": -0.0099,
"percent_delta": -0.028,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.85,
"after": 0.8409,
"delta": -0.0091,
"percent_delta": -0.0107,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.2251,
"delta": 0.0151,
"percent_delta": 0.0719,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.302,
"after": 0.3039,
"delta": 0.0019,
"percent_delta": 0.0063,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.487,
"after": 0.49,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0062,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.65,
"after": 0.6504,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.0006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.431,
"after": 0.4486,
"delta": 0.0176,
"percent_delta": 0.0408,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.796,
"after": 0.7598,
"delta": -0.0362,
"percent_delta": -0.0455,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.431,
"after": 0.4486,
"delta": 0.0176,
"percent_delta": 0.0408,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
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"window_games": {
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"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2414,
"delta": -0.0086,
"percent_delta": -0.0344,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3079,
"delta": 0.0579,
"percent_delta": 0.2315,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4773,
"delta": 0.2273,
"percent_delta": 0.9091,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4773,
"delta": 0.2273,
"percent_delta": 0.9091,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2414,
"delta": -0.0086,
"percent_delta": -0.0344,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.177,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.823,
"percent_delta": 4.6497,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.67,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.33,
"percent_delta": 0.0899,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.2414,
"delta": 0.0094,
"percent_delta": 0.0405,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.354,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.354,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.85,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.15,
"percent_delta": 0.1765,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.21,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.302,
"after": 0.3079,
"delta": 0.0059,
"percent_delta": 0.0195,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.487,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.513,
"percent_delta": 1.0534,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.65,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.35,
"percent_delta": 2.0769,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.431,
"after": 0.4773,
"delta": 0.0463,
"percent_delta": 0.1074,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.796,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.204,
"percent_delta": 1.5126,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 9,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 8,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.65,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.35,
"percent_delta": 2.0769,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.354,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.354,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.177 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.670 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.354 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.850 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.210 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.302 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.487 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.650 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.431 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.796 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.150 | -0.027 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.621 | -0.049 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.344 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.841 | -0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.056 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.225 | 0.015 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.304 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.490 | 0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.650 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.449 | 0.018 |
| predicted_SO | 0.760 | -0.036 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.150 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.621 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | 0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.348 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.874 | 0.033 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.056 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.234 | 0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.523 | 0.033 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.694 | 0.044 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.477 | 0.029 |
| predicted_SO | 0.751 | -0.008 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.064
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.150 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.379 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.348 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.126 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.234 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.058 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.477 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.306 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.227 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.249 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.2105 | 0.2500 | 0.5263 | 0.2105 | 0.1053 | 0.2632 | 0.0526 | 0.1579 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 0.2222 | 0.3171 | 0.5556 | 0.2222 | 0.1111 | 0.2222 | 0.1111 | 0.1389 |
| season | 0.60 | 113 | - | 388.000 | 94.000 | 20.000 | 0.000 | 18.000 | 58.000 | 55.000 | 40.000 | 90.000 | 0.2423 | 0.3219 | 0.4330 | 0.2423 | 0.0464 | 0.1495 | 0.1031 | 0.2320 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1140 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5570 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2330 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3310 |
| predicted_H | 0.8290 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0560 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2450 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3065 |
| predicted_R | 0.4940 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6510 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4719 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7120 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1770 | 0.1140 | 0.1498 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6700 | 3.5570 | 3.6213 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2320 | 0.2330 | 0.2324 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3540 | 0.3310 | 0.3441 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8500 | 0.8290 | 0.8409 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0560 | 0.0560 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2100 | 0.2450 | 0.2251 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3020 | 0.3065 | 0.3039 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4870 | 0.4940 | 0.4900 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6500 | 0.6510 | 0.6504 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4310 | 0.4719 | 0.4486 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7960 | 0.7120 | 0.7598 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 390 |
| Season rows before report date | 390 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 113 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.242 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 4 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 5 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260810_COL@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 571448 |
| playerID | 571448 |
| playerName | Nolan Arenado |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | ARI |
| teamID | 1 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.325 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.298 |
| sl_xba | 0.232 |
| sl_xslg | 0.357 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.204 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.202 | 1.000 | -0.202 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.029 | 0.000 | -0.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.060 | 3.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.162 | 4.000 | -1.162 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.238 | 0.333 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.258 | 0.500 | 0.075 | -0.167 |
| predicted_BB | 0.327 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.321 | 0.000 | 0.679 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.200 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.074 | 2.000 | -0.074 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.184 | 0.000 | -0.184 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.320 | 0.500 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.312 | 0.600 | 0.188 | -0.100 |
| predicted_R | 0.549 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.573 | 1.000 | 0.427 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.700 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.625 | 1.000 | 0.375 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.038 | 0.000 | -0.038 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.427 | 0.333 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.454 | 0.750 | -0.120 | -0.417 |
| predicted_SO | 0.681 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.683 | 0.000 | 0.317 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.3270 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6730, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 5.0600 -> 3.0000 (deboost -2.0600, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.3270 -> 0.3942 (boost 0.0672, better) | predicted_AB: 5.0600 -> 4.5185 (deboost -0.5415, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2347 -> 0.2440 (boost 0.0093, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3256 -> 0.3052 (deboost -0.0204, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_AB: 4.5185 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.4815, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3985 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3985, worse) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=5.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.038 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.500) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5571 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4429, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4264 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.2264, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 5.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -2.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2000 -> 0.4264 (boost 0.2264, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "606466",
"player_name": "Ketel Marte",
"position": "2B",
"team": "ARI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"predicted_AVG": 0.238,
"predicted_BB": 0.327,
"predicted_H": 1.2,
"predicted_HR": 0.2,
"predicted_OBP": 0.32,
"predicted_R": 0.549,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7,
"predicted_SLG": 0.427,
"predicted_SO": 0.681
},
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0218,
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"predicted_AVG": 0.2347,
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"predicted_H": 1.0604,
"predicted_HBP": 0.129,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.6319,
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{
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},
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},
{
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{
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"form_windows": {
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},
"window_games": {
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}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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{
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{
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"percent_delta": -0.3447,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4264,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.2264,
"percent_delta": -0.531,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.4264,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.2264,
"percent_delta": -0.531,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -0.4,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -0.4,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3052,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4264,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.244,
"delta": 0.044,
"percent_delta": 0.2199,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.3052,
"delta": 0.1052,
"percent_delta": 0.5262,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.4264,
"delta": 0.2264,
"percent_delta": 1.132,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.4264,
"delta": 0.2264,
"percent_delta": 1.132,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.204,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.204,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.027,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.027,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.06,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -2.06,
"percent_delta": -0.4071,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.238,
"after": 0.244,
"delta": 0.006,
"percent_delta": 0.0252,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.327,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.673,
"percent_delta": 2.0581,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.2,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.2,
"percent_delta": -0.1667,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.3052,
"delta": -0.0148,
"percent_delta": -0.0462,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.549,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.451,
"percent_delta": 0.8215,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3,
"percent_delta": 0.4286,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.427,
"after": 0.4264,
"delta": -0.0006,
"percent_delta": -0.0014,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.681,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.319,
"percent_delta": 0.4684,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.327,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.673,
"percent_delta": 2.0581,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.06,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -2.06,
"percent_delta": -0.4071,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.204 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.060 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.238 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.327 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.200 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.320 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.549 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.700 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.427 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.681 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.203 | -0.001 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.519 | -0.541 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.235 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.394 | 0.067 |
| predicted_H | 1.060 | -0.140 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.129 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.185 | -0.015 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.326 | 0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.522 | -0.027 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.632 | -0.068 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.424 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.727 | 0.045 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.203 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.519 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.399 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 1.102 | 0.042 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.129 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.193 | 0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | -0.020 |
| predicted_R | 0.557 | 0.035 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.674 | 0.042 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.426 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.719 | -0.008 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=5.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.038
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.500)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.203 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.022 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.481 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | -0.044 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.399 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.102 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.193 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.200 | -0.105 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.443 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.326 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.200 | -0.226 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.281 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -2.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 0.2353 | 0.4091 | 0.4706 | 0.2353 | 0.0588 | 0.1765 | 0.2353 | 0.2353 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 10.000 | 0.1714 | 0.3409 | 0.3143 | 0.1714 | 0.0286 | 0.1143 | 0.1714 | 0.2857 |
| season | 0.60 | 113 | - | 458.000 | 113.000 | 23.000 | 3.000 | 20.000 | 65.000 | 62.000 | 37.000 | 77.000 | 0.2467 | 0.3075 | 0.4410 | 0.2467 | 0.0437 | 0.1419 | 0.0808 | 0.1681 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8110 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2304 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4820 |
| predicted_H | 0.8780 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1290 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1650 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3329 |
| predicted_R | 0.4870 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5430 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4209 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7860 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2040 | 0.2020 | 0.2031 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0270 | 0.0150 | 0.0218 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.0600 | 3.8110 | 4.5185 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2380 | 0.2304 | 0.2347 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3270 | 0.4820 | 0.3942 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.2000 | 0.8780 | 1.0604 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1290 | 0.1290 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2000 | 0.1650 | 0.1848 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3200 | 0.3329 | 0.3256 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5490 | 0.4870 | 0.5221 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7000 | 0.5430 | 0.6319 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4270 | 0.4209 | 0.4244 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6810 | 0.7860 | 0.7265 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 445 |
| Season rows before report date | 445 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 113 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.247 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 1 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 3 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260810_COL@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 606466 |
| playerID | 606466 |
| playerName | Ketel Marte |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | ARI |
| teamID | 1 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 15.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.321 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.346 |
| sl_xba | 0.276 |
| sl_xslg | 0.464 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.161 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.138 | 0.000 | -0.138 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.740 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.345 | 3.000 | 0.655 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.311 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.282 | 0.333 | -0.282 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.129 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.115 | 2.000 | -0.115 | -2.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.160 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.943 | 1.000 | -0.943 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.161 | 0.000 | -0.161 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.360 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.308 | 0.600 | -0.308 | -0.600 |
| predicted_R | 0.355 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.379 | 0.000 | -0.379 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.730 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.713 | 0.000 | -0.713 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.506 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.467 | 0.333 | -0.467 | -0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.871 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.931 | 1.000 | 0.069 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.7400 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.2600, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.1600 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.1600, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_R: 0.3550 -> 0.4056 (boost 0.0506, better) | predicted_AB: 3.7400 -> 3.6833 (deboost -0.0567, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.7589 -> 0.8098 (boost 0.0509, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3653 -> 0.3571 (deboost -0.0082, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_AB: 3.6833 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.3167, better) | predicted_H: 1.2083 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.2083, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.323 HR/AB=0.047 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4328 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4328, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5192 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.2692, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.5192 (boost 0.2692, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "543510",
"player_name": "James McCann",
"position": "C",
"team": "ARI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.161,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.74,
"predicted_AVG": 0.311,
"predicted_BB": 0.129,
"predicted_H": 1.16,
"predicted_HR": 0.16,
"predicted_OBP": 0.36,
"predicted_R": 0.355,
"predicted_RBI": 0.73,
"predicted_SLG": 0.506,
"predicted_SO": 0.871
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1788,
"predicted_3B": 0.0012,
"predicted_AB": 3.6833,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3162,
"predicted_BB": 0.1649,
"predicted_H": 1.1623,
"predicted_HBP": 0.067,
"predicted_HR": 0.1673,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3653,
"predicted_R": 0.4056,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7589,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5167,
"predicted_SO": 0.8861
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.161,
"after": 0.1788,
"delta": 0.0178,
"percent_delta": 0.1106,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0012,
"delta": 0.0012,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.74,
"after": 3.6833,
"delta": -0.0567,
"percent_delta": -0.0152,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.311,
"after": 0.3162,
"delta": 0.0052,
"percent_delta": 0.0167,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.129,
"after": 0.1649,
"delta": 0.0359,
"percent_delta": 0.2783,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.16,
"after": 1.1623,
"delta": 0.0023,
"percent_delta": 0.002,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.1673,
"delta": 0.0073,
"percent_delta": 0.0456,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.36,
"after": 0.3653,
"delta": 0.0053,
"percent_delta": 0.0147,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.355,
"after": 0.4056,
"delta": 0.0506,
"percent_delta": 0.1425,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.73,
"after": 0.7589,
"delta": 0.0289,
"percent_delta": 0.0396,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.506,
"after": 0.5167,
"delta": 0.0107,
"percent_delta": 0.0211,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.871,
"after": 0.8861,
"delta": 0.0151,
"percent_delta": 0.0173,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.355,
"after": 0.4056,
"delta": 0.0506,
"percent_delta": 0.1425,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.74,
"after": 3.6833,
"delta": -0.0567,
"percent_delta": -0.0152,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 31
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1788,
"predicted_3B": 0.0012,
"predicted_AB": 3.6833,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3281,
"predicted_BB": 0.1667,
"predicted_H": 1.2083,
"predicted_HBP": 0.067,
"predicted_HR": 0.1743,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3571,
"predicted_R": 0.4328,
"predicted_RBI": 0.8098,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5192,
"predicted_SO": 0.8764
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1788,
"after": 0.1788,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0012,
"after": 0.0012,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6833,
"after": 3.6833,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.3162,
"after": 0.3281,
"delta": 0.0119,
"percent_delta": 0.0376,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1649,
"after": 0.1667,
"delta": 0.0018,
"percent_delta": 0.0109,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.1623,
"after": 1.2083,
"delta": 0.046,
"percent_delta": 0.0396,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.067,
"after": 0.067,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1673,
"after": 0.1743,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0418,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3653,
"after": 0.3571,
"delta": -0.0082,
"percent_delta": -0.0224,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4056,
"after": 0.4328,
"delta": 0.0272,
"percent_delta": 0.0671,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7589,
"after": 0.8098,
"delta": 0.0509,
"percent_delta": 0.0671,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5167,
"after": 0.5192,
"delta": 0.0025,
"percent_delta": 0.0048,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8861,
"after": 0.8764,
"delta": -0.0097,
"percent_delta": -0.0109,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7589,
"after": 0.8098,
"delta": 0.0509,
"percent_delta": 0.0671,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3653,
"after": 0.3571,
"delta": -0.0082,
"percent_delta": -0.0224,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.323 HR/AB=0.047",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1788,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1788,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0012,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0012,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6833,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.3167,
"percent_delta": 0.086,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1667,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1667,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.2083,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.2083,
"percent_delta": -0.1724,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.067,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.067,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1743,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1743,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.8098,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1902,
"percent_delta": 0.2349,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8764,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1236,
"percent_delta": 0.141,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6833,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.3167,
"percent_delta": 0.086,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.2083,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.2083,
"percent_delta": -0.1724,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4328,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4328,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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},
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{
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],
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},
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},
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}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.161 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.740 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.311 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.129 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.160 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.360 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.355 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.730 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.506 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.871 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | 0.018 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.683 | -0.057 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.316 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.165 | 0.036 |
| predicted_H | 1.162 | 0.002 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.067 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.167 | 0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.365 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.406 | 0.051 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.759 | 0.029 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.517 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.886 | 0.015 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.683 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.328 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.167 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.208 | 0.046 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.067 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.174 | 0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.357 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.433 | 0.027 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.810 | 0.051 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.519 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.876 | -0.010 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.323 HR/AB=0.047
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.179 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.317 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.078 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.167 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.208 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.174 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.107 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.433 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.190 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.269 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.124 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.3684 | 0.4545 | 0.6316 | 0.3684 | 0.0526 | 0.2632 | 0.1053 | 0.2632 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 40.000 | 18.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 15.000 | 8.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 0.4500 | 0.5000 | 0.8000 | 0.4500 | 0.1000 | 0.3750 | 0.0750 | 0.2500 |
| season | 0.60 | 31 | - | 102.000 | 31.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 21.000 | 11.000 | 4.000 | 27.000 | 0.3039 | 0.3364 | 0.4706 | 0.3039 | 0.0392 | 0.2059 | 0.0392 | 0.2647 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2070 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0030 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5930 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3246 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2220 |
| predicted_H | 1.1660 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0670 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1790 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3737 |
| predicted_R | 0.4860 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.8050 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5337 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9100 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1610 | 0.2070 | 0.1788 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0030 | 0.0012 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7400 | 3.5930 | 3.6833 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3110 | 0.3246 | 0.3162 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1290 | 0.2220 | 0.1649 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1600 | 1.1660 | 1.1623 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0670 | 0.0670 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1600 | 0.1790 | 0.1673 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3600 | 0.3737 | 0.3653 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3550 | 0.4860 | 0.4056 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7300 | 0.8050 | 0.7589 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5060 | 0.5337 | 0.5167 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8710 | 0.9100 | 0.8861 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 87 |
| Season rows before report date | 87 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 31 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.304 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 2 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260808_LAD@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 543510 |
| playerID | 543510 |
| playerName | James McCann |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | ARI |
| teamID | 1 |
| game_date | 2026-08-08 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.351 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.277 |
| sl_xba | 0.223 |
| sl_xslg | 0.377 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 7.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.245 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.255 | 0.000 | 0.745 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.025 | 0.000 | -0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.321 | 2.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.503 | 3.000 | -1.503 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.299 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.257 | 0.667 | 0.243 | -0.167 |
| predicted_BB | 0.208 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.242 | 1.000 | 0.758 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.031 | 0.000 | -0.031 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.970 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.901 | 2.000 | 0.099 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.037 | 0.000 | -0.037 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.366 | 0.667 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.309 | 0.750 | 0.358 | -0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.453 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.379 | 2.000 | 0.621 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.330 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.335 | 0.000 | 0.665 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.405 | 1.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.376 | 0.667 | 0.624 | 0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 1.113 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.304 | 0.000 | -0.304 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.2080 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7920, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.3210 -> 2.0000 (deboost -1.3210, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | - | predicted_SO: 1.1130 -> 1.0239 (deboost -0.0891, better) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4091 -> 0.4666 (boost 0.0575, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3589 -> 0.3436 (deboost -0.0153, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | - | predicted_RBI: 0.3455 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3455, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.297 HR/AB=0.032 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5188 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4812, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2984 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0346, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4666 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.1336, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 2.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4666 (boost 0.1336, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2984 (deboost -0.0346, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "814439",
"player_name": "Ryan Waldschmidt",
"position": "CF",
"team": "ARI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.245,
"predicted_3B": 0.019,
"predicted_AB": 3.321,
"predicted_AVG": 0.299,
"predicted_BB": 0.208,
"predicted_H": 0.97,
"predicted_HR": 0.11,
"predicted_OBP": 0.366,
"predicted_R": 0.453,
"predicted_RBI": 0.33,
"predicted_SLG": 0.405,
"predicted_SO": 1.113
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2048,
"predicted_3B": 0.0161,
"predicted_AB": 3.3091,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2912,
"predicted_BB": 0.2252,
"predicted_H": 0.9499,
"predicted_HBP": 0.108,
"predicted_HR": 0.1022,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3589,
"predicted_R": 0.4862,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3238,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4091,
"predicted_SO": 1.0239
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.2048,
"delta": -0.0402,
"percent_delta": -0.1641,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0161,
"delta": -0.0029,
"percent_delta": -0.1526,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.321,
"after": 3.3091,
"delta": -0.0119,
"percent_delta": -0.0036,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.299,
"after": 0.2912,
"delta": -0.0078,
"percent_delta": -0.0261,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.208,
"after": 0.2252,
"delta": 0.0172,
"percent_delta": 0.0827,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.97,
"after": 0.9499,
"delta": -0.0201,
"percent_delta": -0.0207,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.11,
"after": 0.1022,
"delta": -0.0078,
"percent_delta": -0.0709,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.366,
"after": 0.3589,
"delta": -0.0071,
"percent_delta": -0.0194,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.453,
"after": 0.4862,
"delta": 0.0332,
"percent_delta": 0.0733,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.3238,
"delta": -0.0062,
"percent_delta": -0.0188,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.405,
"after": 0.4091,
"delta": 0.0041,
"percent_delta": 0.0101,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.113,
"after": 1.0239,
"delta": -0.0891,
"percent_delta": -0.0801,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.113,
"after": 1.0239,
"delta": -0.0891,
"percent_delta": -0.0801,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 53
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2048,
"predicted_3B": 0.0161,
"predicted_AB": 3.3091,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2984,
"predicted_BB": 0.2277,
"predicted_H": 0.9875,
"predicted_HBP": 0.108,
"predicted_HR": 0.1065,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3436,
"predicted_R": 0.5188,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3455,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4666,
"predicted_SO": 1.0127
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2048,
"after": 0.2048,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0161,
"after": 0.0161,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.3091,
"after": 3.3091,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2912,
"after": 0.2984,
"delta": 0.0072,
"percent_delta": 0.0247,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2252,
"after": 0.2277,
"delta": 0.0025,
"percent_delta": 0.0111,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9499,
"after": 0.9875,
"delta": 0.0376,
"percent_delta": 0.0396,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.108,
"after": 0.108,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1022,
"after": 0.1065,
"delta": 0.0043,
"percent_delta": 0.0421,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3589,
"after": 0.3436,
"delta": -0.0153,
"percent_delta": -0.0426,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4862,
"after": 0.5188,
"delta": 0.0326,
"percent_delta": 0.0671,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3238,
"after": 0.3455,
"delta": 0.0217,
"percent_delta": 0.067,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4091,
"after": 0.4666,
"delta": 0.0575,
"percent_delta": 0.1406,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0239,
"after": 1.0127,
"delta": -0.0112,
"percent_delta": -0.0109,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4091,
"after": 0.4666,
"delta": 0.0575,
"percent_delta": 0.1406,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3589,
"after": 0.3436,
"delta": -0.0153,
"percent_delta": -0.0426,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.297 HR/AB=0.032",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2048,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2048,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0161,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0161,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.3091,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.3091,
"percent_delta": -0.0934,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2277,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2277,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9875,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0125,
"percent_delta": 0.0127,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.108,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.108,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1065,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1065,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3455,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3455,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0127,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0127,
"percent_delta": -0.0125,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3455,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3455,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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{
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},
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
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"stats": {
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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},
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 1.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2984,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3436,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4666,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3436,
"delta": 0.0106,
"percent_delta": 0.0318,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4666,
"delta": 0.1336,
"percent_delta": 0.4011,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.1336,
"percent_delta": 0.4011,
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2984,
"delta": -0.0346,
"percent_delta": -0.1038,
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"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.245,
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"delta": 0.755,
"percent_delta": 3.0816,
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"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.019,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.321,
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"percent_delta": -0.3978,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
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"before": 0.299,
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"percent_delta": -0.002,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.208,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.792,
"percent_delta": 3.8077,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.97,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.03,
"percent_delta": 0.0309,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.11,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.11,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.366,
"after": 0.3436,
"delta": -0.0224,
"percent_delta": -0.0612,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.453,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.547,
"percent_delta": 1.2075,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.67,
"percent_delta": 2.0303,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.405,
"after": 0.4666,
"delta": 0.0616,
"percent_delta": 0.1521,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.113,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.113,
"percent_delta": -0.1015,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.208,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.792,
"percent_delta": 3.8077,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.321,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -1.321,
"percent_delta": -0.3978,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.245 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.321 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.299 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.208 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.970 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.366 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.453 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.330 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.405 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.113 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.205 | -0.040 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.309 | -0.012 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.291 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.225 | 0.017 |
| predicted_H | 0.950 | -0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.108 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.102 | -0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.359 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.486 | 0.033 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.324 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.409 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 1.024 | -0.089 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.205 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.309 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.298 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.228 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.988 | 0.038 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.108 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.106 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.344 | -0.015 |
| predicted_R | 0.519 | 0.033 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.345 | 0.022 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.467 | 0.057 |
| predicted_SO | 1.013 | -0.011 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.297 HR/AB=0.032
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.205 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.309 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.035 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.228 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.012 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.106 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | -0.011 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.481 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.345 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.134 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.013 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 2.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.2000 | 0.3333 | 0.4000 | 0.2000 | 0.0667 | 0.1333 | 0.1333 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 31.000 | 11.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.3548 | 0.4286 | 0.4516 | 0.3548 | 0.0323 | 0.0645 | 0.0645 | 0.1935 |
| season | 0.60 | 53 | - | 176.000 | 51.000 | 13.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 15.000 | 24.000 | 11.000 | 59.000 | 0.2898 | 0.3385 | 0.4091 | 0.2898 | 0.0114 | 0.0852 | 0.0625 | 0.3352 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1470 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2920 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2799 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2500 |
| predicted_H | 0.9210 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1080 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0910 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3487 |
| predicted_R | 0.5340 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3150 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4149 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8960 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2450 | 0.1470 | 0.2048 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0190 | 0.0120 | 0.0161 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3210 | 3.2920 | 3.3091 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2990 | 0.2799 | 0.2912 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2080 | 0.2500 | 0.2252 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9700 | 0.9210 | 0.9499 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1080 | 0.1080 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1100 | 0.0910 | 0.1022 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3660 | 0.3487 | 0.3589 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4530 | 0.5340 | 0.4862 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3300 | 0.3150 | 0.3238 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4050 | 0.4149 | 0.4091 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1130 | 0.8960 | 1.0239 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 161 |
| Season rows before report date | 161 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 53 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 2 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.29 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 1 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.667 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260810_COL@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 814439 |
| playerID | 814439 |
| playerName | Ryan Waldschmidt |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | ARI |
| teamID | 1 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.322 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.296 |
| sl_xba | 0.247 |
| sl_xslg | 0.382 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 50.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 33.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_BB | 3.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_H | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 |
| predicted_IP | 4.200 | 4.200 | 4.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 4.533 | 7.000 | -0.333 | -2.800 |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_SO | 3.500 | 9.000 | 0.500 | -5.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 2 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 4.6667 -> 4.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | starter_quality_floor | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | predicted_H: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_IP: 4.6667 -> 4.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) | Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "683352",
"player_name": "Mitch Bratt",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "ARI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 4.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.6667,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "starter_quality_floor",
"description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 4.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.2,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 4.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.1,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 4.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.1,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 4.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.2,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.2,
"after": 4.2,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 4.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.1,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 4.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.1,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 4.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 4.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | - |
Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 4.200 | -0.467 |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 24.200 | 11.000 | 22.000 | 16.000 | 18.000 | 4.000 | 4.0135 | 1.5405 | 0.4460 | 0.8919 | 0.6486 | 0.7297 | 0.1622 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 6 | 27.200 | 12.000 | 24.000 | 18.000 | 21.000 | 4.000 | 3.9036 | 1.5181 | 0.4337 | 0.8675 | 0.6506 | 0.7590 | 0.1446 |
| season | 0.20 | 6 | 27.200 | 12.000 | 24.000 | 18.000 | 21.000 | 4.000 | 3.9036 | 1.5181 | 0.4337 | 0.8675 | 0.6506 | 0.7590 | 0.1446 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.4970 |
| predicted_ER | 2.2620 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.2206 |
| predicted_H | 4.4710 |
| predicted_HR | 0.7460 |
| predicted_IP | 4.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 4.0320 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4445 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 4.0000 | 2.4970 | 3.3117 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 2.0000 | 2.2620 | 2.1200 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.2206 | 4.2206 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 3.0000 | 4.4710 | 3.6737 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.7460 | 0.8837 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 4.2000 | 4.2000 | 4.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 4.0000 | 4.0320 | 4.0147 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4445 | 1.4445 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 6 |
| Season rows before report date | 6 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 6 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 4.2 |
| H | 4 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 4 |
| SO | 4 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 22 |
| Pitches | 87 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 3 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 24 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.90 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 6 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 7.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 92 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 9 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 55 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | W |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260805_SD@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 683352 |
| playerID | 683352 |
| playerName | Mitch Bratt |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | ARI |
| teamID | 1 |
| game_date | 2026-08-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 14.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.343 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.31 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 16.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.5 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.682806585 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.953261852 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.189 | 0.000 | 0.811 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.189 | 0.000 | -0.189 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.459 | 0.000 | -0.459 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.724 | 1.000 | 0.376 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.973 | 0.000 | 0.027 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "805299",
"player_name": "Brandyn Garcia",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "ARI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 4.1538 | 1.1538 | 0.4615 | 0.9231 | 0.2308 | 1.3846 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 2.2500 | 0.7500 | 0.2500 | 0.6250 | 0.1250 | 1.2500 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 36 | 31.000 | 6.000 | 15.000 | 6.000 | 36.000 | 0.000 | 1.7419 | 0.6774 | 0.1935 | 0.4839 | 0.1935 | 1.1613 | 0.0000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2470 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3810 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.6666 |
| predicted_H | 0.7850 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0620 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0700 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1028 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.2470 | 0.6526 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3810 | 0.1758 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.6666 | 3.6666 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.7850 | 0.3622 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0620 | 0.0286 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.0700 | 1.0323 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1028 | 1.1028 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 37 |
| Season rows before report date | 37 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 36 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 19 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.03 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 12 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 10 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260803_SD@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 805299 |
| playerID | 805299 |
| playerName | Brandyn Garcia |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | ARI |
| teamID | 1 |
| game_date | 2026-08-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.217 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.225 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 19.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 78.597332632 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.899741333 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.229 | 1.000 | -0.229 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.292 | 1.000 | -0.292 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.812 | 2.000 | -0.812 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.850 | 1.000 | 0.150 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.667 | 0.000 | -0.667 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "642528",
"player_name": "Jonathan Loáisiga",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "ARI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 9.0000 | 2.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.6000 | 0.4000 | 0.6000 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.200 | 5.000 | 10.000 | 4.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 4.6552 | 1.4483 | 0.5172 | 1.0345 | 0.4138 | 1.0345 | 0.1035 |
| season | 0.20 | 48 | 45.000 | 14.000 | 39.000 | 11.000 | 32.000 | 2.000 | 2.8000 | 1.1111 | 0.3111 | 0.8667 | 0.2444 | 0.7111 | 0.0444 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3690 |
| predicted_ER | 0.6240 |
| predicted_ERA | 5.6133 |
| predicted_H | 1.1540 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1400 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8400 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.5233 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3690 | 0.1842 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.6240 | 0.3114 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 5.6133 | 5.6133 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 1.1540 | 0.5759 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1400 | 0.0699 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.8400 | 0.4192 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.5233 | 1.5233 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 48 |
| Season rows before report date | 48 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 48 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 16 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 5 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.80 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 12 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 7 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260804_SD@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 642528 |
| playerID | 642528 |
| playerName | Jonathan Loáisiga |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | ARI |
| teamID | 1 |
| game_date | 2026-08-04 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.277 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.281 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.126715571 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.39129482 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.327 | 0.000 | -0.327 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.265 | 0.000 | -0.265 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.612 | 1.000 | 0.388 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.824 | 1.100 | 0.176 | -0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.122 | 2.000 | -1.122 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "666661",
"player_name": "Juan Morillo",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "ARI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.100 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.3750 | 0.0000 | 0.3750 | 0.0000 | 1.3125 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.200 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 12.000 | 0.000 | 0.8438 | 0.6562 | 0.0938 | 0.3750 | 0.2812 | 1.1250 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 48 | 46.000 | 13.000 | 29.000 | 16.000 | 55.000 | 2.000 | 2.5435 | 0.9783 | 0.2826 | 0.6304 | 0.3478 | 1.1957 | 0.0435 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2360 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2330 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.1008 |
| predicted_H | 0.6190 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0580 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1300 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.8542 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.2360 | 0.1183 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2330 | 0.1168 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.1008 | 2.1008 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.6190 | 0.8090 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0580 | 0.0291 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.1300 | 0.5664 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.8542 | 0.8542 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 49 |
| Season rows before report date | 49 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 48 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 16 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 5 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.54 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 18 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 13 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260803_SD@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 666661 |
| playerID | 666661 |
| playerName | Juan Morillo |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | ARI |
| teamID | 1 |
| game_date | 2026-08-03 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.246 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.234 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 31.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 32.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.9 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 73.443755439 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.053160088 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.260 | 1.000 | -0.260 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.320 | 0.000 | 0.680 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.800 | 1.000 | 0.200 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.858 | 1.000 | 0.142 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.860 | 0.000 | -0.860 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 2.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - | predicted_H: 2.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "656464",
"player_name": "Kevin Ginkel",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "ARI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.100 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.6875 | 0.9375 | 0.1875 | 0.7500 | 0.1875 | 0.1875 | 0.1875 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.000 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 3.6000 | 1.1000 | 0.4000 | 0.9000 | 0.2000 | 0.3000 | 0.1000 |
| season | 0.20 | 50 | 47.100 | 16.000 | 40.000 | 13.000 | 43.000 | 5.000 | 3.0423 | 1.1197 | 0.3380 | 0.8451 | 0.2747 | 0.9084 | 0.1056 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2610 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3630 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.2703 |
| predicted_H | 0.8740 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1430 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5740 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1352 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.2610 | 0.1315 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.3630 | 0.6790 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.2703 | 3.2703 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 0.8740 | 1.4325 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1430 | 0.0721 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.5740 | 0.2893 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1352 | 1.1352 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 50 |
| Season rows before report date | 50 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 50 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 16 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 5 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.04 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 3 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 3 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 25 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 15 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260801_ARI@CLE |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 656464 |
| playerID | 656464 |
| playerName | Kevin Ginkel |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | ARI |
| teamID | 1 |
| game_date | 2026-08-01 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.289 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.304 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 79.80614 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.251699853 |
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | HOU 5 - 3 SF | HOU | 0.660 | scoring_simulation.final_score | True |
| Simulation draw | HOU 7 - 2 SF | HOU | - | organic_score_same_winner_supported | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.8311; empirical=0.5833; weight=0.4200; final=0.7270 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=-3; abs=3; home delta=-0.0250; away delta=0.0250 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=1.6500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=-0.3782; recent edge=-0.9520; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 9.6000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.6600 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_score_same_winner_supported |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 7 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 4.912 | 3.972 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 5 | 4 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 5 | 3 | 0.6600 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis |
| 4 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 3 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 5 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 3 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 6 | capped_target | 5 | 3 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 7 | simulation_result | 7 | 2 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.4871748933333334,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.4301587301587302,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.5101587301587301,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.05701616317460323,
"confidence": 0.6662734,
"factors": {
"environmental": 0.9996,
"pitcher_form": 1.1,
"team_form": 1.0,
"situational": 1.03,
"combined": 1.1325468
},
"prediction": "normal_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 9,
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 9.6,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 9.6,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 9,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
}{
"method": "historical_slate_bin_shrinkage",
"sample_size": 84,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 84,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 177,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 231,
"global_sample_size": 473,
"bucket_scope": "near_0.05",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5833,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5686,
"sample_weight": 0.6,
"prior_strength": 18.0,
"reliability": 0.8235,
"confidence_cap": 0.78,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.6966,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.6078,
"predicted_side": "away"
}{
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.831063,
"sample_size": 84,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5833,
"empirical_weight": 0.42,
"blended_confidence": 0.727002,
"published_confidence": 0.66,
"published_after_governors": true
}{
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 1,
"sample_weight": 0.0167,
"home_net_margin": -3.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
"home_average_margin": -3.0,
"home_run_delta": -0.025,
"away_run_delta": 0.025,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -3.0
}
]
}{
"applied": true,
"home": {
"team": "SF",
"games": 119,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 69,
"win_pct": 0.42016806722689076,
"runs_scored": 492,
"runs_allowed": 550,
"run_differential": -58,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.48739495798319327,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 119,
"wins": 60,
"losses": 59,
"win_pct": 0.5042016806722689,
"runs_scored": 550,
"runs_allowed": 578,
"run_differential": -28,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.23529411764705882,
"available": true
},
"run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.2521,
"win_pct_edge": -0.084,
"quality_edge": -0.579,
"season_quality_edge": -0.3782,
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
"recent_window": 10,
"season_quality_edge": -0.3782,
"recent_quality_edge": -0.952,
"season_weight": 0.65,
"recent_weight": 0.35,
"recent_reliability": 1.0,
"alignment": "aligned",
"blended_quality_edge": -0.579
},
"margin_adjustment": -0.2432,
"reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
"margin_adjustment_policy": {
"adjustment": -0.2432,
"cap": 1.4,
"scale": 0.42,
"quality_edge": -0.579,
"season_quality_edge": -0.3782,
"recent_alignment": "aligned",
"large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
"method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 6.863,
"home_runs": 1.059,
"home_win_probability": 0.08
}
}{
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 5,
"probability": 0.025936014970504167
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 6,
"probability": 0.02548655373974317
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 5,
"probability": 0.023625761892874683
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.023564533822280548
},
{
"home_runs": 2,
"away_runs": 5,
"probability": 0.023315340304958465
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.0754619937460957,
"1": 0.12518364554336373,
"2": 0.17005444926402175,
"3": 0.18916879120029495,
"4": 0.17231856256806513,
"5": 0.12853923851674806,
"6": 0.07851641599950542,
"7": 0.03927410500811559,
"8": 0.016086931465878352,
"9": 0.005395866687911472
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.027319106395670697,
"1": 0.047321336490698765,
"2": 0.07318313083327302,
"3": 0.1010481667975234,
"4": 0.1245688238147594,
"5": 0.13710514723881012,
"6": 0.13472916741724908,
"7": 0.11820421504125073,
"8": 0.09259078613941231,
"9": 0.06475391792612623,
"10": 0.04043223979554312,
"11": 0.022539953769719304,
"12": 0.011218678760161993,
"13": 0.004985329579801725
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
"variance_multiplier": 1.65,
"variance_floor": 2.75,
"roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"predicted_team": "HOU",
"opponent_team": "SF",
"h2h_net_margin": 3,
"recent_h2h": [
{
"date": "2026-08-10",
"predicted_team_runs": 6,
"opponent_runs": 3,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 3,
"winner": "HOU"
}
],
"prediction_memory": {
"available": true,
"reason": "verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available",
"verification_policy": "pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final",
"verified_outcome_count": 1,
"consecutive_same_pick_count": 1,
"same_pick_actual_loss_count": 0,
"same_pick_blowout_loss_count": 0,
"prior_predictions": [
{
"date": "20260810",
"away": "HOU",
"home": "SF",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "HOU",
"actual_winner": "HOU",
"actual_margin": 3,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.611,
"artifact": "20260810_HOU@SF.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
}
]
},
"guardrail_predicted_team": "HOU",
"guardrail_opponent_team": "SF",
"output_pre_simulation_winner": "HOU",
"output_opponent_team": "SF",
"simulation_score_winner": "HOU",
"final_score_winner": "HOU",
"pre_simulation_winner": "HOU",
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false
},
"final_prediction_sync": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "HOU 5 - 3 SF",
"winner": "HOU"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 7,
"home_runs": 2,
"score_text": "HOU 7 - 2 SF",
"winner": "HOU"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": true,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.141,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.302,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 2,
"home_run_delta": -1,
"total_run_delta": 1,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 7,
"home_runs": 2,
"winner": "HOU",
"model_winner": "HOU",
"simulation_winner": "HOU",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": true,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 2,
"simulation_margin": 5,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 3
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 7,
"home_runs": 2
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 2,
"final_margin": 5,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.579,
"winner": "HOU",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"policy": "recency_uncertainty_shrinkage_v2",
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"home": {
"team": "SF",
"games": 119,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 69,
"win_pct": 0.42016806722689076,
"runs_scored": 492,
"runs_allowed": 550,
"run_differential": -58,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.48739495798319327,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 119,
"wins": 60,
"losses": 59,
"win_pct": 0.5042016806722689,
"runs_scored": 550,
"runs_allowed": 578,
"run_differential": -28,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.23529411764705882,
"available": true
}
}
}{
"applied": true,
"raw_margin": -5.8038,
"final_margin": -1.5,
"margin_cap": 1.5,
"season_quality_edge": 0.579,
"reason": "large target margin capped because season quality evidence did not justify a decisive prediction",
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 4.711,
"home_runs": 3.211
}
}{
"applied": true,
"raw_confidence": 0.727002,
"final_confidence": 0.66,
"confidence_cap": 0.66,
"score_gap": 2.3127,
"calibration_sample_size": 84,
"calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5833,
"calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5686,
"calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
"season_quality_edge": 0.579,
"reasons": [
"unvalidated probabilities are capped for production display",
"projected score gap is moderate",
"local calibration sample has at least 30 games",
"local calibration sample has at least 60 games",
"win-probability calibration cap enforced"
]
}{
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "HOU 5 - 3 SF",
"winner": "HOU"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 7,
"home_runs": 2,
"score_text": "HOU 7 - 2 SF",
"winner": "HOU"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": true,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.141,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.302,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 2,
"home_run_delta": -1,
"total_run_delta": 1,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 7,
"home_runs": 2,
"winner": "HOU",
"model_winner": "HOU",
"simulation_winner": "HOU",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": true,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 2,
"simulation_margin": 5,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 3
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 7,
"home_runs": 2
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 2,
"final_margin": 5,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.579,
"winner": "HOU",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}{
"away_runs": 7,
"home_runs": 2,
"confidence": 0.66,
"home_win_probability": 0.33999999999999997,
"away_win_probability": 0.66,
"predicted_score_text": "HOU 7 - 2 SF",
"embedded_savant_score_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded temporal Savant features",
"feature_contract": {
"training_grain": "one player-game row after collapsing granular at-bat rows",
"temporal_rule": "all sl_/ab_/sv_ model features are shifted before the predicted game",
"hitter_signals": [
"xwoba",
"xba",
"xslg",
"barrel_batted_rate",
"hard_hit_percent",
"bat_speed",
"launch_quality",
"walk_rate",
"strikeout_rate"
],
"pitcher_signals": [
"xwoba_allowed",
"barrel_allowed",
"hard_hit_allowed",
"whiff_rate",
"command_score",
"movement_score",
"faced_est_woba",
"faced_strikeout_rate"
]
},
"away": {
"team": "HOU",
"original_runs": 5,
"run_delta": 0.3484,
"adjusted_runs": 5,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 38.0,
"quality": 0.2204781061103472,
"contact": 0.33213602038324264,
"power": 0.30374743472961485,
"discipline": 0.08137312903430985,
"xwoba": 0.3362631578947368,
"recent_xwoba": 0.3362631578947368,
"barrel": 8.736842105263158,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.25257447927394255,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.39561515210342,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2107178614016461,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "670541",
"player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
"position": "DH",
"weight": 5.0,
"quality": 1.8336510391558607,
"contact": 2.0,
"power": 2.0,
"discipline": 1.2531268115942027,
"xwoba": 0.465,
"recent_xwoba": 0.465,
"barrel": 17.8,
"ab_hard_contact": 1.5853845350090119,
"ab_bat_speed": 75.29224765873016,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.17525,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "676369",
"player_name": "Nelson Velázquez",
"position": "LF",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": 0.3233777193441828,
"contact": 1.010424184415583,
"power": 1.5467613711389507,
"discipline": -0.879357142857143,
"xwoba": 0.363,
"recent_xwoba": 0.363,
"barrel": 12.0,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.3348464703980871,
"ab_bat_speed": 74.12482905982905,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.43525641025641026,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "514888",
"player_name": "Jose Altuve",
"position": "2B",
"weight": 5.0,
"quality": -0.6090614585045646,
"contact": -0.6860435990383036,
"power": -0.7122621793146461,
"discipline": 0.08254347826086933,
"xwoba": 0.279,
"recent_xwoba": 0.279,
"barrel": 5.2,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.6246721577214828,
"ab_bat_speed": 66.2248277074543,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.23333333333333334,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "701358",
"player_name": "Cam Smith",
"position": "RF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.4224899836916993,
"contact": 0.28550756524265225,
"power": 0.6980810290279114,
"discipline": -0.2699978751225893,
"xwoba": 0.329,
"recent_xwoba": 0.329,
"barrel": 11.6,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.9425729615106103,
"ab_bat_speed": 75.56191666666666,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2370175438596491,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "662139",
"player_name": "Daulton Varsho",
"position": "CF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": -0.2783679160806171,
"contact": -0.3285013867226275,
"power": -0.38186934562645247,
"discipline": 0.23214568499722257,
"xwoba": 0.294,
"recent_xwoba": 0.294,
"barrel": 6.5,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.581005960148086,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.27739982578397,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.1983739837398374,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "687931",
"player_name": "Carson Whisenhunt",
"quality": -0.16407366603951296,
"contact": -1.4401717515626458,
"command": -0.3134841269841271,
"movement": -0.5229320887488853,
"xwoba": 0.387,
"whiff": 30.9,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2673184860119048,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.86666666666667,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.23333333333333334,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006702420300892518
}
},
"home": {
"team": "SF",
"original_runs": 3,
"run_delta": -0.2149,
"adjusted_runs": 3,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 32.0,
"quality": 0.032813844678304824,
"contact": -0.17190816203034134,
"power": -0.022913300016156435,
"discipline": -0.12824160361717604,
"xwoba": 0.302,
"recent_xwoba": 0.302,
"barrel": 8.04375,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.4013969527040728,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.93871261555157,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.22111768733870804,
"available_players": 8,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "805811",
"player_name": "Bryce Eldridge",
"position": "1B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.7262503877991654,
"contact": 0.6805301886528716,
"power": 0.9886917251932584,
"discipline": 0.30981991086781047,
"xwoba": 0.345,
"recent_xwoba": 0.345,
"barrel": 11.4,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.5848821229127975,
"ab_bat_speed": 72.86763989776702,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.276271186440678,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "646240",
"player_name": "Rafael Devers",
"position": "DH",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.48263161853355957,
"contact": 0.3933740402319111,
"power": 0.932153808996205,
"discipline": -0.19242080745341622,
"xwoba": 0.326,
"recent_xwoba": 0.326,
"barrel": 11.0,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.2571714180193464,
"ab_bat_speed": 70.73977257936508,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.28901190476190475,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "683766",
"player_name": "Christian Koss",
"position": "3B",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.155040968378652,
"contact": -1.8924750000000001,
"power": -1.7408320420181884,
"discipline": -0.6916231884057971,
"xwoba": 0.19700000000000004,
"recent_xwoba": 0.197,
"barrel": 2.3,
"ab_hard_contact": -1.5591170308399551,
"ab_bat_speed": 70.01591666666667,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.125,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "687551",
"player_name": "Drew Gilbert",
"position": "CF",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.27601318810943154,
"contact": -0.10332466853545569,
"power": -0.7147967392630246,
"discipline": 0.37891470562505447,
"xwoba": 0.31,
"recent_xwoba": 0.31,
"barrel": 3.0,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.7191728804985719,
"ab_bat_speed": 67.3001803599374,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.16431924882629106,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "701852",
"player_name": "Drew Cavanaugh",
"position": "C",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.14172926972899763,
"contact": -0.8597580036796538,
"power": -1.0636013442633592,
"discipline": 0.7114561766735681,
"xwoba": 0.305,
"recent_xwoba": 0.305,
"barrel": 5.0,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.8145030757433724,
"ab_bat_speed": 66.81957407407407,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.27777777777777773,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "686613",
"player_name": "Hunter Brown",
"quality": 0.24313655558516342,
"contact": 0.5858663514375133,
"command": -0.022198412698412703,
"movement": 0.5071579921371022,
"xwoba": 0.293,
"whiff": 28.0,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2673184860119048,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.86666666666667,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.23333333333333334,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006702420300892518
}
}
},
"fundamental_edge_target_review": {
"applied": false,
"method": "post_score_adjustment_fundamental_edge_review_v1",
"previous_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 3,
"winner_side": "away"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 3,
"winner_side": "away"
},
"signals": {
"season_quality_edge_home_minus_away": -0.579,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.302,
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.141,
"composite_home_edge": -1.3142,
"existing_home_win_probability": 0.3922,
"refreshed_home_win_probability": 0.3,
"winner_support_before_review": 1.3142
},
"reasons": [
"target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile"
]
},
"confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 3,
"predicted_score_text": "HOU 5 - 3 SF",
"confidence": 0.66,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "HOU 5 - 3 SF",
"winner": "HOU"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 7,
"home_runs": 2,
"score_text": "HOU 7 - 2 SF",
"winner": "HOU"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": true,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.141,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.302,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 2,
"home_run_delta": -1,
"total_run_delta": 1,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 7,
"home_runs": 2,
"winner": "HOU",
"model_winner": "HOU",
"simulation_winner": "HOU",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": true,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 2,
"simulation_margin": 5,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 3
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 7,
"home_runs": 2
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 2,
"final_margin": 5,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.579,
"winner": "HOU",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
},
"decision_profile": {
"method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
"winner": "HOU",
"display_confidence": 0.66,
"internal_signal_score": 0.72,
"internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
"model_pick_probability": 0.66,
"confidence_compression_detected": false,
"moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
"betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
"market_context": null,
"margin_fit": "supported_runline_profile",
"totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
"winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
"signals": {
"final_margin": 5,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.579,
"winner_recent_form_edge": 0.952,
"winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.141,
"winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
"blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.6,
"high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.6,
"low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1,
"total_runs_spread": {
"min": 6,
"median": 11,
"max": 18,
"range": 12
}
},
"interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away HOU | True | 1.0291 | 1.0291 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home SF | True | 1.0053 | 1.0053 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS | Jeremy Peña | 39 | 1.0458 | 0.6106 | neutral | 0.3490 | 0.2940 | 0.4390 | 5.40 | 41.20 | 88.30 | 12.20 | 29.80 | 19.50 | 6.80 | -0.5143 |
| 2B | Jose Altuve | 328 | 0.9573 | -0.5691 | neutral | 0.2790 | 0.2250 | 0.3360 | 5.20 | 31.90 | 85.60 | 8.50 | 22 | 20.10 | 8.20 | -0.8286 |
| 3B | Isaac Paredes | 57 | 1.0036 | 0.0483 | neutral | 0.3210 | 0.2470 | 0.3730 | 5.50 | 29.30 | 86.30 | 23.70 | 15.80 | 14.50 | 9.50 | -0.4571 |
| LF | Nelson Velázquez | 367 | 1.0526 | 0.7017 | positive_batter_regression | 0.3630 | 0.2650 | 0.5150 | 12 | 64 | 94.60 | 16.10 | 37.80 | 30.10 | 8.40 | 1.4286 |
| DH | Yordan Alvarez | 2 | 1.1500 | 2 | neutral | 0.4650 | 0.3320 | 0.6890 | 17.80 | 53.70 | 94.40 | 19.30 | 19.80 | 17.20 | 15.90 | 0.7143 |
| RF | Cam Smith | 146 | 1.0519 | 0.6921 | neutral | 0.3290 | 0.2460 | 0.4360 | 11.60 | 44.60 | 89.40 | 12.50 | 28.80 | 24.60 | 8.20 | 0.8286 |
| 1B | Christian Walker | 84 | 1.0065 | 0.0873 | neutral | 0.3080 | 0.2290 | 0.3910 | 9.60 | 42.40 | 89.50 | 14.90 | 29.90 | 23.50 | 8.60 | -0.8286 |
| CF | Daulton Varsho | 256 | 0.9895 | -0.1398 | neutral | 0.2940 | 0.2370 | 0.3620 | 6.50 | 36.90 | 86.30 | 14.50 | 20.20 | 19.50 | 8.50 | -0.1143 |
| C | Yainer Diaz | 302 | 1.0045 | 0.0595 | neutral | 0.3040 | 0.2670 | 0.4030 | 5.30 | 34.60 | 87.60 | 6.30 | 22 | 15.80 | 3.40 | 0.2000 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DH | Rafael Devers | 98 | 1.0455 | 0.6061 | neutral | 0.3260 | 0.2340 | 0.4460 | 11 | 51.30 | 92.50 | 13.80 | 28.70 | 26.50 | 9.60 | -0.4286 |
| 1B | Bryce Eldridge | 211 | 1.0707 | 0.9431 | neutral | 0.3450 | 0.2450 | 0.4510 | 11.40 | 51.90 | 92.10 | 13.80 | 25.50 | 26.80 | 12.70 | 0.2000 |
| LF | Victor Bericoto | 392 | 0.9976 | -0.0314 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2890 | 0.2170 | 0.4570 | 14 | 46.50 | 88.50 | 8.20 | 27.10 | 25.40 | 1.70 | -2 |
| 2B | Osleivis Basabe | 336 | 1.0162 | 0.2161 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3190 | 0.2680 | 0.4720 | 16 | 38.50 | 89.10 | 12.70 | 19 | 18.20 | 0 | -1 |
| C | Drew Cavanaugh | 402 | 0.9882 | -0.1567 | neutral | 0.3050 | 0.2180 | 0.3090 | 5 | 21.40 | 84.70 | 13.70 | 25 | 25.40 | 15.50 | 0.2286 |
| SS | Willy Adames | 117 | 0.9886 | -0.1520 | neutral | 0.2900 | 0.2190 | 0.3810 | 8.60 | 38.40 | 87.30 | 22.50 | 28.90 | 27.90 | 7.20 | -0.3429 |
| RF | Jung Hoo Lee | 115 | 0.9963 | -0.0492 | neutral | 0.3120 | 0.2890 | 0.3790 | 2.50 | 29.10 | 86.80 | 10.10 | 13 | 10.30 | 4.10 | -0.7143 |
| CF | Drew Gilbert | 311 | 0.9978 | -0.0298 | neutral | 0.3100 | 0.2560 | 0.3560 | 3 | 33.30 | 86.10 | 15.50 | 21.80 | 15.90 | 9.10 | 0.2000 |
| 3B | Christian Koss | 605 | 0.9464 | -0.7141 | neutral | 0.1970 | 0.1760 | 0.2160 | 2.30 | 25 | 84.20 | 14.90 | 27.70 | 23 | 3.30 | 0.7143 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0053,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0053,
"team_espn_average_rank": 287.44,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "646240",
"player_name": "Rafael Devers",
"offense_factor": 1.0455,
"quality_score": 0.6061,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "646240",
"espn_id": 33859,
"player_name": "Rafael Devers",
"team": "SF",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 98,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 98,
"gp_value": 119.0,
"gp_rank": 3,
"ab_value": 449.0,
"ab_rank": 18,
"r_value": 61.0,
"r_rank": 53,
"h_value": 111.0,
"h_rank": 48,
"avg_value": 0.247216,
"avg_rank": 93.0,
"2b_value": 27.0,
"2b_rank": 7,
"3b_value": 1.0,
"3b_rank": 114,
"hr_value": 24.0,
"hr_rank": 19,
"rbi_value": 64.0,
"rbi_rank": 39,
"tb_value": 212.0,
"tb_rank": 340,
"bb_value": 49.0,
"bb_rank": 44,
"so_value": 134.0,
"so_rank": 13,
"sb_value": 0.0,
"sb_rank": 405,
"obp_value": 0.3200795,
"obp_rank": "93",
"slg_value": 0.4721603,
"slg_rank": "33",
"ops_value": 0.7922398,
"ops_rank": 60.0,
"war_value": 1.89,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 423.0,
"k_percent": 26.5,
"bb_percent": 9.6,
"woba": 0.341,
"xwoba": 0.326,
"xba": 0.234,
"xslg": 0.446,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 11.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 51.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 92.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.8,
"whiff_percent": 28.7,
"swing_percent": 48.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.7745,
"regression_edge": -0.4286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.6857,
"xba_edge": -0.0857,
"xslg_edge": 1.1,
"barrel_edge": 0.9333,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.9214,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.56,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.3167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "805811",
"player_name": "Bryce Eldridge",
"offense_factor": 1.0707,
"quality_score": 0.9431,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "805811",
"espn_id": 5149064,
"player_name": "Bryce Eldridge",
"team": "SF",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 211,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 211,
"gp_value": 76.0,
"gp_rank": 245,
"ab_value": 270.0,
"ab_rank": 199,
"r_value": 37.0,
"r_rank": 183,
"h_value": 67.0,
"h_rank": 188,
"avg_value": 0.2481481,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 15.0,
"2b_rank": 140,
"3b_value": 0.0,
"3b_rank": 263,
"hr_value": 11.0,
"hr_rank": 138,
"rbi_value": 28.0,
"rbi_rank": 232,
"tb_value": 115.0,
"tb_rank": 1268,
"bb_value": 39.0,
"bb_rank": 95,
"so_value": 82.0,
"so_rank": 117,
"sb_value": 1.0,
"sb_rank": 304,
"obp_value": 0.3419354,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.4259259,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.7678613,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.83,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 236.0,
"k_percent": 26.8,
"bb_percent": 12.7,
"woba": 0.338,
"xwoba": 0.345,
"xba": 0.245,
"xslg": 0.451,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 11.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 51.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 92.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.8,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 42.9
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.0641,
"regression_edge": 0.2,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2286,
"xba_edge": 0.2286,
"xslg_edge": 1.1714,
"barrel_edge": 1.0222,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.0071,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.4,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.1333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "682674",
"player_name": "Victor Bericoto",
"offense_factor": 0.9976,
"quality_score": -0.0314,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "682674",
"espn_id": 42502,
"player_name": "Victor Bericoto",
"team": "SF",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 392,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 392,
"gp_value": 24.0,
"gp_rank": 462,
"ab_value": 58.0,
"ab_rank": 460,
"r_value": 7.0,
"r_rank": 449,
"h_value": 17.0,
"h_rank": 425,
"avg_value": 0.2931034,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 3.0,
"2b_rank": 420,
"3b_value": 0.0,
"3b_rank": 263,
"hr_value": 4.0,
"hr_rank": 294,
"rbi_value": 9.0,
"rbi_rank": 414,
"tb_value": 32.0,
"tb_rank": 2253,
"bb_value": 1.0,
"bb_rank": 528,
"so_value": 15.0,
"so_rank": 470,
"sb_value": 1.0,
"sb_rank": 304,
"obp_value": 0.3050847,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.5517241,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.8568088,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.02,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 56.0,
"k_percent": 25.4,
"bb_percent": 1.7,
"woba": 0.365,
"xwoba": 0.289,
"xba": 0.217,
"xslg": 0.457,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 14.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 46.5,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 8.2,
"whiff_percent": 27.1,
"swing_percent": 56.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.2444,
"regression_edge": -2.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.3714,
"xba_edge": -0.5714,
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"war_rank": null
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"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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"metrics": {
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},
{
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"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
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"metrics": {
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"slg_rank": "1",
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"ops_rank": 2.0,
"war_value": 5.44,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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"metrics": {
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"components": {
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"exit_velocity_edge": 2.32,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.3333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
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},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "701358",
"player_name": "Cam Smith",
"offense_factor": 1.0519,
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"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "701358",
"espn_id": 5080766,
"player_name": "Cam Smith",
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"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
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"slg_rank": "101",
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"ops_rank": 231.0,
"war_value": 1.38,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
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"launch_angle_avg": 12.5,
"whiff_percent": 28.8,
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"components": {
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}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "572233",
"player_name": "Christian Walker",
"offense_factor": 1.0065,
"quality_score": 0.0873,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "572233",
"espn_id": 32758,
"player_name": "Christian Walker",
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"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 84,
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"war_rank": 1.0
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"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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"metrics": {
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"components": {
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"xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
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"sweet_spot_edge": -0.3,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "662139",
"player_name": "Daulton Varsho",
"offense_factor": 0.9895,
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"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "662139",
"espn_id": 40963,
"player_name": "Daulton Varsho",
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"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
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"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
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},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "673237",
"player_name": "Yainer Diaz",
"offense_factor": 1.0045,
"quality_score": 0.0595,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "673237",
"espn_id": 4781491,
"player_name": "Yainer Diaz",
"team": "HOU",
"role": "batter",
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"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
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"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 191.0,
"k_percent": 15.8,
"bb_percent": 3.4,
"woba": 0.297,
"xwoba": 0.304,
"xba": 0.267,
"xslg": 0.403,
"sweet_spot_percent": 29.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.3,
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"exit_velocity_avg": 87.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 6.3,
"whiff_percent": 22.0,
"swing_percent": 57.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.0471,
"regression_edge": 0.2,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0571,
"xba_edge": 0.8571,
"xslg_edge": 0.4857,
"barrel_edge": -0.3333,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.4643,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.4,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.6667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
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}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away HOU | True | 144 | 0.2215 | 0.7080 | 0.9812 | 1.0239 | 1.0581 | 0.9841 | neutral | 0.2930 | 0.2930 | 25.60 | 13 | 28 | 6.80 | 37.40 | |
| Home SF | True | 730 | -0.4171 | 0.4500 | 1.0354 | 1.0057 | 1.0486 | 1.0805 | neutral | 0.3870 | 0.3880 | 19 | 14.30 | 30.90 | 10 | 48.60 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away HOU | True | None | 90 | 91.79 | 2204 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1051 | |
| Home SF | True | None | 86 | 87.69 | 2205 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1243 |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 1.0159 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 0.9867 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | -0.6386 |
{
"applied": true,
"home_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "687931",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"bb_percent": 14.3,
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"xwoba": 0.387,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 48.6,
"avg_best_speed": 79.6072,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.9987,
"whiff_percent": 30.9,
"swing_percent": 48.5
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
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},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": -0.2057,
"regression_edge": 0.0286,
"xwoba_edge": -2.1714,
"barrel_edge": -0.6444,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.5571,
"whiff_edge": 0.7714,
"bb_edge": -1.35,
"pitch_design_score": -0.1243
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "687931",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 86,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 86,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 87.69189993238675,
"release_spin_rate": 2205.3122379986476,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 86,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 87.69189993238675,
"release_spin_rate": 2205.3122379986476,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 87.6919,
"release_spin_rate": 2205.3122,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.888,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.4171,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0354,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0057,
"walk_factor": 1.0486,
"homer_factor": 1.0805,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "687931",
"espn_id": 4626232,
"player_name": "Carson Whisenhunt",
"team": "SF",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 730,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
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"gp_value": 5.0,
"gp_rank": 578,
"gs_value": 5.0,
"gs_rank": 200,
"qs_value": 0.0,
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"era_value": 7.2537,
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"w_value": 2.0,
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"sv_value": 0.0,
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"hld_value": 0.0,
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"ip_value": 22.1,
"ip_rank": 454,
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"hr_value": 4.0,
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"k_rank": 443,
"k_per_9_value": 8.059701,
"k_per_9_rank": 26,
"whip_value": 1.8358,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": -0.53,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "686613",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"bb_percent": 13.0,
"woba": 0.293,
"xwoba": 0.293,
"sweet_spot_percent": 26.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
"avg_best_speed": 73.9889,
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"whiff_percent": 28.0,
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},
"league_medians": {
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"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
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},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.4792,
"command_and_miss": 0.1386,
"regression_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": 0.5143,
"barrel_edge": 0.0667,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0429,
"whiff_edge": 0.3571,
"bb_edge": -1.025,
"pitch_design_score": 0.1051
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "686613",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 90,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 90,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.78877342121649,
"release_spin_rate": 2204.2426050661707,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 90,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.78877342121649,
"release_spin_rate": 2204.2426050661707,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 91.7888,
"release_spin_rate": 2204.2426,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.1051,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.7508,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.2215,
"sample_weight": 0.708,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9812,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0239,
"walk_factor": 1.0581,
"homer_factor": 0.9841,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "686613",
"espn_id": 4717803,
"player_name": "Hunter Brown",
"team": "HOU",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 144,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 144,
"gp_value": 11.0,
"gp_rank": 467,
"gs_value": 11.0,
"gs_rank": 145,
"qs_value": 5.0,
"qs_rank": 92,
"era_value": 3.5284,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 3.0,
"w_rank": 206,
"l_value": 1.0,
"l_rank": 381,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 58.2,
"ip_rank": 180,
"h_value": 41.0,
"h_rank": 253,
"er_value": 23.0,
"er_rank": 215,
"hr_value": 7.0,
"hr_rank": 192,
"bb_value": 32.0,
"bb_rank": 92,
"k_value": 63.0,
"k_rank": 160,
"k_per_9_value": 9.664773,
"k_per_9_rank": 24,
"whip_value": 1.2443,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 1.06,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 1.0159,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 0.9867,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": -0.6386
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 6.3977,
"home_runs": 1.3241
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 6.4996,
"home_runs": 1.3065,
"home_win_probability": 0.08
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away HOU | 6-4 | 0.600 | 5.10 | 3.50 | 16 | 1W | hot | average |
| Home SF | 2-8 | 0.200 | 2.70 | 4.90 | -22 | 3L | cold | average |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away HOU | 60-59 | 0.504 | -28 | -0.235 | True |
| Home SF | 50-69 | 0.420 | -58 | -0.487 | True |
| Signal | - | - | -0.252 | -0.579 | applied=True |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | HOU @ SF | 6 - 3 | HOU | 3 | blowout |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target HOU | - | - | 5 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target SF | - | - | 3 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized HOU | 38 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| Player finalized SF | 32 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| Player model fractional HOU | 34.66 | 8.53 | 4.60 | 1.31 | 4.70 | 3.16 | 7.24 |
| Player model fractional SF | 30.34 | 6.93 | 3.27 | 1.22 | 3.50 | 2.18 | 7.08 |
| Simulation box HOU | 35 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| Simulation box SF | 32 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away HOU | Starter | Hunter Brown | 5.20 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3.95 | 1.23 | True |
| Away HOU | Middle Reliever | Bryan Abreu | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2.21 | 0.93 | True |
| Away HOU | Middle Reliever | Josh Hader | 1.10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2.38 | 0.81 | True |
| Away HOU | Middle Reliever | Steven Okert | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.67 | 1.18 | True |
| Home SF | Starter | Carson Whisenhunt | 4.10 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 5.87 | 1.58 | True |
| Home SF | Middle Reliever | JT Brubaker | 1.10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.70 | 1.40 | True |
| Home SF | Middle Reliever | Dylan Smith | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.95 | 1.39 | True |
| Home SF | Middle Reliever | Keaton Winn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.53 | 1.46 | True |
| Home SF | Middle Reliever | Sam Hentges | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.54 | 1.39 | True |
| Home SF | Middle Reliever | Jason Foley | 0.10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4.73 | 1.46 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away | HOU | batter | C | Yainer Diaz | worse | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | predicted_RBI | 2.7000 | boost | better |
| away | HOU | batter | 1B | Christian Walker | better | 10 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 3 | predicted_HR | 1.8900 | boost | better |
| away | HOU | batter | RF | Cam Smith | worse | 9 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 6 | predicted_AB | -1.6100 | deboost | worse |
| home | SF | batter | C | Drew Cavanaugh | better | 9 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | predicted_H | 1.5600 | boost | better |
| away | HOU | batter | 3B | Isaac Paredes | worse | 11 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 9 | predicted_SO | 1.3840 | boost | worse |
| home | SF | batter | 3B | Christian Koss | worse | 8 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 5 | predicted_AB | 1.3040 | boost | better |
| away | HOU | batter | CF | Daulton Varsho | boosted | 10 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | predicted_SO | 1.2220 | boost | worse |
| away | HOU | batter | LF | Nelson Velázquez | worse | 9 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | predicted_SO | 1.1780 | boost | worse |
| home | SF | batter | SS | Willy Adames | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | predicted_SO | -1.1680 | deboost | better |
| away | HOU | batter | 2B | Jose Altuve | better | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 3 | predicted_H | 1.1000 | boost | better |
| away | HOU | batter | SS | Jeremy Peña | deboosted | 10 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | predicted_AB | -1.0200 | deboost | worse |
| home | SF | batter | RF | Jung Hoo Lee | deboosted | 10 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | predicted_AB | -0.9600 | deboost | worse |
| home | SF | batter | LF | Victor Bericoto | worse | 11 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 9 | predicted_BB | 0.9520 | boost | better |
| home | SF | batter | DH | Rafael Devers | worse | 10 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 8 | predicted_H | -0.9320 | deboost | worse |
| home | SF | batter | 1B | Bryce Eldridge | worse | 11 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 9 | predicted_H | -0.8680 | deboost | worse |
| home | SF | batter | 2B | Osleivis Basabe | worse | 9 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 7 | predicted_AB | 0.8180 | boost | better |
| home | SF | batter | CF | Drew Gilbert | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 8 | predicted_BB | 0.7820 | boost | better |
| away | HOU | batter | DH | Yordan Alvarez | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | predicted_SO | -0.7520 | deboost | better |
| home | SF | pitcher | Starter | Carson Whisenhunt | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.5667 | deboost | worse |
| away | HOU | pitcher | Starter | Hunter Brown | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.4667 | deboost | worse |
| home | SF | pitcher | Middle Reliever | JT Brubaker | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.2333 | deboost | worse |
| away | HOU | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Josh Hader | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.1000 | boost | better |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Hunter Brown |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.2215 |
| ESPN Rank | 144 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.1051 |
| Avg Velo | 91.7888 |
| Avg Spin | 2204.2426 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 5.2000 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 3 |
| Pre BB | 3 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 3.5284 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2443 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.3330 |
| Recent Avg IP | 5.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 6 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 128,
"wins": 64,
"losses": 64,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 587.0,
"runs_allowed": 612.0,
"run_differential": -25.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1953,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5859,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7812,
"offense_index": 1.021,
"defense_index": 0.9394,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
"run_differential": 16.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0111
},
"opponent": {
"team": "SF",
"games": 130,
"wins": 55,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.4231,
"runs_scored": 549.0,
"runs_allowed": 593.0,
"run_differential": -44.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.3385,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2231,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5615,
"offense_index": 0.9402,
"defense_index": 0.9847,
"current_streak": "L3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
"run_differential": -22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2118
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.2229,
"offense_edge": 0.021,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0598,
"defense_strength": -0.0606,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0153,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0095,
"run_prevention": 0.9853,
"strikeout": 1.0115
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "686613",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "686613",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 177.0,
"k_percent": 25.6,
"bb_percent": 13.0,
"woba": 0.293,
"xwoba": 0.293,
"sweet_spot_percent": 26.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
"avg_best_speed": 73.9889,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.4412,
"whiff_percent": 28.0,
"swing_percent": 41.0
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.4792,
"command_and_miss": 0.1386,
"regression_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": 0.5143,
"barrel_edge": 0.0667,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0429,
"whiff_edge": 0.3571,
"bb_edge": -1.025,
"pitch_design_score": 0.1051
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "686613",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 90,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 90,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.78877342121649,
"release_spin_rate": 2204.2426050661707,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 90,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.78877342121649,
"release_spin_rate": 2204.2426050661707,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 91.7888,
"release_spin_rate": 2204.2426,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.1051,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.7508,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.2215,
"sample_weight": 0.708,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9812,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0239,
"walk_factor": 1.0581,
"homer_factor": 0.9841,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "686613",
"espn_id": 4717803,
"player_name": "Hunter Brown",
"team": "HOU",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 144,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 144,
"gp_value": 11.0,
"gp_rank": 467,
"gs_value": 11.0,
"gs_rank": 145,
"qs_value": 5.0,
"qs_rank": 92,
"era_value": 3.5284,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 3.0,
"w_rank": 206,
"l_value": 1.0,
"l_rank": 381,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 58.2,
"ip_rank": 180,
"h_value": 41.0,
"h_rank": 253,
"er_value": 23.0,
"er_rank": 215,
"hr_value": 7.0,
"hr_rank": 192,
"bb_value": 32.0,
"bb_rank": 92,
"k_value": 63.0,
"k_rank": 160,
"k_per_9_value": 9.664773,
"k_per_9_rank": 24,
"whip_value": 1.2443,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 1.06,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9867,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 4.0,
"factor": 0.9867,
"adjusted": 4
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 1.0411,
"adjusted": 3
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9887,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 6.0,
"factor": 1.0169,
"adjusted": 6
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 54.0,
"ER": 23,
"H": 37,
"BB": 28,
"SO": 54,
"HR": 7,
"ERA": 3.8333333333333335,
"WHIP": 1.2037037037037037,
"K9": 9.0,
"HR9": 1.1666666666666667,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 5,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-05T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "686613",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 90,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 90,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.78877342121649,
"release_spin_rate": 2204.2426050661707,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 90,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.78877342121649,
"release_spin_rate": 2204.2426050661707,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 91.7888,
"release_spin_rate": 2204.2426,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.1051,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.7508,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 11.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6875,
"prior_weight": 0.3125
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "686613",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 11,
"reference_playing_time": 5.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 29.1,
"ER": 12.0,
"R": 12.0,
"H": 18.0,
"BB": 15.0,
"SO": 28.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 118.0,
"Pitches": 477.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 2.4,
"R": 2.4,
"H": 3.6,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 5.6,
"HR": 0.6,
"BF": 23.6,
"Pitches": 95.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.6818,
"WHIP": 1.125,
"ER_per_IP": 0.40909,
"H_per_IP": 0.61364,
"BB_per_IP": 0.51136,
"SO_per_IP": 0.95455,
"HR_per_IP": 0.10227
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 54.0,
"ER": 23.0,
"R": 25.0,
"H": 37.0,
"BB": 28.0,
"SO": 54.0,
"HR": 7.0,
"BF": 224.0,
"Pitches": 917.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 2.3,
"R": 2.5,
"H": 3.7,
"BB": 2.8,
"SO": 5.4,
"HR": 0.7,
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"Pitches": 91.7
},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 0.42593,
"H_per_IP": 0.68519,
"BB_per_IP": 0.51852,
"SO_per_IP": 1.0,
"HR_per_IP": 0.12963
}
},
"season": {
"games": 11,
"totals": {
"IP": 58.2,
"ER": 23.0,
"R": 25.0,
"H": 41.0,
"BB": 32.0,
"SO": 63.0,
"HR": 7.0,
"BF": 246.0,
"Pitches": 1019.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 2.0909,
"R": 2.2727,
"H": 3.7273,
"BB": 2.9091,
"SO": 5.7273,
"HR": 0.6364,
"BF": 22.3636,
"Pitches": 92.6364
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.5284,
"WHIP": 1.2443,
"ER_per_IP": 0.39205,
"H_per_IP": 0.69886,
"BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
"SO_per_IP": 1.07386,
"HR_per_IP": 0.11932
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_ER": 2.476,
"predicted_H": 4.26,
"predicted_BB": 2.655,
"predicted_SO": 5.549,
"predicted_HR": 0.709,
"predicted_ERA": 3.9487,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2253
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.482,
"form_weight": 0.518,
"form_reliability": 0.6875,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 11.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6875,
"prior_weight": 0.3125
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 5.2,
"form": 5.2,
"final": 5.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 2.476,
"final": 2.2466,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 4.26,
"final": 3.6526,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 2.655,
"final": 2.8213,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 5.549,
"final": 3.8383,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.709,
"final": 0.3672,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.9487,
"final": 3.9487,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2253,
"final": 1.2253,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Bryan Abreu |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0062 |
| ESPN Rank | 252 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 4.2857 |
| Season WHIP | 1.3571 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 128,
"wins": 64,
"losses": 64,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 587.0,
"runs_allowed": 612.0,
"run_differential": -25.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1953,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5859,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7812,
"offense_index": 1.021,
"defense_index": 0.9394,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
"run_differential": 16.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0111
},
"opponent": {
"team": "SF",
"games": 130,
"wins": 55,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.4231,
"runs_scored": 549.0,
"runs_allowed": 593.0,
"run_differential": -44.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.3385,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2231,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5615,
"offense_index": 0.9402,
"defense_index": 0.9847,
"current_streak": "L3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
"run_differential": -22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2118
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.2229,
"offense_edge": 0.021,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0598,
"defense_strength": -0.0606,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0153,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0095,
"run_prevention": 0.9853,
"strikeout": 1.0115
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "650556",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "650556",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 151.0,
"k_percent": 30.2,
"bb_percent": 16.5,
"woba": 0.329,
"xwoba": 0.316,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.6,
"avg_best_speed": 82.7983,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.6369,
"whiff_percent": 32.7,
"swing_percent": 40.8
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.3143,
"command_and_miss": 0.4943,
"regression_edge": 0.3714,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
"barrel_edge": 0.1333,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.8429,
"whiff_edge": 1.0286,
"bb_edge": -1.9,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "650556",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": -0.0062,
"sample_weight": 0.604,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0005,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0525,
"walk_factor": 1.0918,
"homer_factor": 1.0165,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "650556",
"espn_id": 41208,
"player_name": "Bryan Abreu",
"team": "HOU",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 252,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 252,
"gp_value": 45.0,
"gp_rank": 81,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 4.2857,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 4.0,
"w_rank": 147,
"l_value": 3.0,
"l_rank": 192,
"sv_value": 7.0,
"sv_rank": 30,
"hld_value": 7.0,
"hld_rank": 103,
"ip_value": 42.0,
"ip_rank": 300,
"h_value": 29.0,
"h_rank": 370,
"er_value": 20.0,
"er_rank": 263,
"hr_value": 7.0,
"hr_rank": 192,
"bb_value": 30.0,
"bb_rank": 118,
"k_value": 55.0,
"k_rank": 197,
"k_per_9_value": 11.785715,
"k_per_9_rank": 17,
"whip_value": 1.4047,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.42,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0003,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0003,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0554,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.01,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0317,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 0,
"H": 3,
"BB": 4,
"SO": 15,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 0.7,
"K9": 13.5,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-07T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "650556",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 8.399,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6269,
"prior_weight": 0.3731
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "650556",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 44,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 8.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 18.0,
"Pitches": 83.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.6,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.6,
"Pitches": 16.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 0.375,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.375,
"SO_per_IP": 1.5,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 3.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 15.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 37.0,
"Pitches": 175.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.3,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.5,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.7,
"Pitches": 17.5
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 0.7,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.3,
"BB_per_IP": 0.4,
"SO_per_IP": 1.5,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 44,
"totals": {
"IP": 42.0,
"ER": 20.0,
"R": 21.0,
"H": 27.0,
"BB": 30.0,
"SO": 55.0,
"HR": 7.0,
"BF": 180.0,
"Pitches": 758.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4545,
"R": 0.4773,
"H": 0.6136,
"BB": 0.6818,
"SO": 1.25,
"HR": 0.1591,
"BF": 4.0909,
"Pitches": 17.2273
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.2857,
"WHIP": 1.3571,
"ER_per_IP": 0.47619,
"H_per_IP": 0.64286,
"BB_per_IP": 0.71429,
"SO_per_IP": 1.30952,
"HR_per_IP": 0.16667
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.246,
"predicted_H": 0.509,
"predicted_BB": 0.417,
"predicted_SO": 1.274,
"predicted_HR": 0.076,
"predicted_ERA": 2.2114,
"predicted_WHIP": 0.9268
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5076,
"form_weight": 0.4924,
"form_reliability": 0.6269,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 8.399,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6269,
"prior_weight": 0.3731
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.246,
"final": 0.1211,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.509,
"final": 0.2506,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.417,
"final": 0.713,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.274,
"final": 0.6273,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.076,
"final": 0.0374,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.2114,
"final": 2.2114,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 0.9268,
"final": 0.9268,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Josh Hader |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.6375 |
| ESPN Rank | 84 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 0.6667 |
| Season WHIP | 0.6296 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 128,
"wins": 64,
"losses": 64,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 587.0,
"runs_allowed": 612.0,
"run_differential": -25.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1953,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5859,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7812,
"offense_index": 1.021,
"defense_index": 0.9394,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
"run_differential": 16.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0111
},
"opponent": {
"team": "SF",
"games": 130,
"wins": 55,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.4231,
"runs_scored": 549.0,
"runs_allowed": 593.0,
"run_differential": -44.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.3385,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2231,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5615,
"offense_index": 0.9402,
"defense_index": 0.9847,
"current_streak": "L3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
"run_differential": -22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2118
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.2229,
"offense_edge": 0.021,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0598,
"defense_strength": -0.0606,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0153,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0095,
"run_prevention": 0.9853,
"strikeout": 1.0115
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "623352",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "623352",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 73.0,
"k_percent": 37.9,
"bb_percent": 10.5,
"woba": 0.183,
"xwoba": 0.189,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 26.5,
"avg_best_speed": 73.378,
"avg_hyper_speed": 91.7926,
"whiff_percent": 38.2,
"swing_percent": 52.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.834,
"command_and_miss": 1.5643,
"regression_edge": -0.1714,
"xwoba_edge": 2.5,
"barrel_edge": 0.6667,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.6,
"whiff_edge": 1.8143,
"bb_edge": -0.4,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "623352",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.6375,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9458,
"strikeout_factor": 1.073,
"walk_factor": 1.0144,
"homer_factor": 0.9134,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.006,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "623352",
"espn_id": 32760,
"player_name": "Josh Hader",
"team": "HOU",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 84,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 84,
"gp_value": 28.0,
"gp_rank": 199,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 1.0,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 4.0,
"w_rank": 147,
"l_value": 1.0,
"l_rank": 381,
"sv_value": 16.0,
"sv_rank": 15,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 27.0,
"ip_rank": 413,
"h_value": 10.0,
"h_rank": 576,
"er_value": 3.0,
"er_rank": 654,
"hr_value": 1.0,
"hr_rank": 563,
"bb_value": 10.0,
"bb_rank": 440,
"k_value": 38.0,
"k_rank": 310,
"k_per_9_value": 12.666667,
"k_per_9_rank": 20,
"whip_value": 0.7407,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 1.69,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9756,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9756,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0065,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.961,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0329,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.2,
"ER": 1,
"H": 4,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 10,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 0.84375,
"WHIP": 0.5625,
"K9": 8.4375,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "623352",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 5.4,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5192,
"prior_weight": 0.4808
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "623352",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 27,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 6.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 18.0,
"Pitches": 63.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.6,
"Pitches": 12.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 0.0,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 0.83333,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 10.2,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 4.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 10.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 38.0,
"Pitches": 138.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.1,
"R": 0.1,
"H": 0.4,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.8,
"Pitches": 13.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.8438,
"WHIP": 0.5625,
"ER_per_IP": 0.09375,
"H_per_IP": 0.375,
"BB_per_IP": 0.1875,
"SO_per_IP": 0.9375,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 27,
"totals": {
"IP": 27.0,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 7.0,
"BB": 10.0,
"SO": 38.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 98.0,
"Pitches": 403.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.0741,
"R": 0.0741,
"H": 0.2593,
"BB": 0.3704,
"SO": 1.4074,
"HR": 0.037,
"BF": 3.6296,
"Pitches": 14.9259
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.6667,
"WHIP": 0.6296,
"ER_per_IP": 0.07407,
"H_per_IP": 0.25926,
"BB_per_IP": 0.37037,
"SO_per_IP": 1.40741,
"HR_per_IP": 0.03704
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.285,
"predicted_H": 0.607,
"predicted_BB": 0.265,
"predicted_SO": 1.048,
"predicted_HR": 0.081,
"predicted_ERA": 2.3799,
"predicted_WHIP": 0.8085
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5531,
"form_weight": 0.4469,
"form_reliability": 0.5192,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 5.4,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5192,
"prior_weight": 0.4808
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.285,
"final": 0.1274,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.607,
"final": 1.3775,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.265,
"final": 0.1184,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.048,
"final": 0.4683,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.081,
"final": 0.0362,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.3799,
"final": 2.3799,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 0.8085,
"final": 0.8085,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Steven Okert |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.5214 |
| ESPN Rank | 64 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.1600 |
| Season WHIP | 0.8743 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 128,
"wins": 64,
"losses": 64,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 587.0,
"runs_allowed": 612.0,
"run_differential": -25.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1953,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5859,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7812,
"offense_index": 1.021,
"defense_index": 0.9394,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
"run_differential": 16.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0111
},
"opponent": {
"team": "SF",
"games": 130,
"wins": 55,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.4231,
"runs_scored": 549.0,
"runs_allowed": 593.0,
"run_differential": -44.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.3385,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2231,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5615,
"offense_index": 0.9402,
"defense_index": 0.9847,
"current_streak": "L3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
"run_differential": -22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2118
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.2229,
"offense_edge": 0.021,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0598,
"defense_strength": -0.0606,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0153,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0095,
"run_prevention": 0.9853,
"strikeout": 1.0115
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "595345",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "595345",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 188.0,
"k_percent": 26.6,
"bb_percent": 5.4,
"woba": 0.251,
"xwoba": 0.264,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.3,
"avg_best_speed": 77.1994,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.1531,
"whiff_percent": 30.0,
"swing_percent": 49.8
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.9873,
"command_and_miss": 0.6829,
"regression_edge": -0.3714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.3429,
"barrel_edge": 0.5111,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6286,
"whiff_edge": 0.6429,
"bb_edge": 0.875,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "595345",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.5214,
"sample_weight": 0.752,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9557,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0382,
"walk_factor": 0.9474,
"homer_factor": 0.92,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.013,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "595345",
"espn_id": 33716,
"player_name": "Steven Okert",
"team": "HOU",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 64,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 64,
"gp_value": 58.0,
"gp_rank": 5,
"gs_value": 1.0,
"gs_rank": 279,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 2.16,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 5.0,
"w_rank": 108,
"l_value": 1.0,
"l_rank": 381,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 16.0,
"hld_rank": 22,
"ip_value": 58.1,
"ip_rank": 182,
"h_value": 39.0,
"h_rank": 272,
"er_value": 14.0,
"er_rank": 366,
"hr_value": 6.0,
"hr_rank": 227,
"bb_value": 12.0,
"bb_rank": 389,
"k_value": 60.0,
"k_rank": 173,
"k_per_9_value": 9.257143,
"k_per_9_rank": 25,
"whip_value": 0.8742,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 1.93,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9667,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9667,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9604,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9398,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0287,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.2,
"ER": 2,
"H": 11,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 10,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 1.8620689655172415,
"WHIP": 1.1379310344827587,
"K9": 9.310344827586208,
"HR9": 0.9310344827586208,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "595345",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 11.666,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7,
"prior_weight": 0.3
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "595345",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 58,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.0,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 6.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 22.0,
"Pitches": 85.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 1.2,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 4.4,
"Pitches": 17.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.8,
"WHIP": 1.2,
"ER_per_IP": 0.2,
"H_per_IP": 1.2,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 1.2,
"HR_per_IP": 0.2
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.2,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 11.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 10.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 42.0,
"Pitches": 172.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 1.1,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 4.2,
"Pitches": 17.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.8621,
"WHIP": 1.1379,
"ER_per_IP": 0.2069,
"H_per_IP": 1.13793,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 1.03448,
"HR_per_IP": 0.10345
}
},
"season": {
"games": 58,
"totals": {
"IP": 58.1,
"ER": 14.0,
"R": 15.0,
"H": 39.0,
"BB": 12.0,
"SO": 60.0,
"HR": 6.0,
"BF": 226.0,
"Pitches": 911.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2414,
"R": 0.2586,
"H": 0.6724,
"BB": 0.2069,
"SO": 1.0345,
"HR": 0.1034,
"BF": 3.8966,
"Pitches": 15.7069
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.16,
"WHIP": 0.8743,
"ER_per_IP": 0.24,
"H_per_IP": 0.66857,
"BB_per_IP": 0.20571,
"SO_per_IP": 1.02857,
"HR_per_IP": 0.10286
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.297,
"predicted_H": 1.042,
"predicted_BB": 0.137,
"predicted_SO": 1.063,
"predicted_HR": 0.147,
"predicted_ERA": 2.6717,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.1791
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4768,
"form_weight": 0.5232,
"form_reliability": 0.7,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 11.666,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7,
"prior_weight": 0.3
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.297,
"final": 0.1554,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.042,
"final": 0.5452,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.137,
"final": 0.0717,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.063,
"final": 1.033,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.147,
"final": 0.0769,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.6717,
"final": 2.6717,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.1791,
"final": 1.1791,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.169 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.179 | 0.000 | 0.821 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.004 | 0.000 | -0.004 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.020 | 4.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.024 | 5.000 | -0.024 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.202 | 0.250 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.305 | 0.200 | -0.055 | 0.050 |
| predicted_BB | 0.296 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.331 | 0.000 | 0.669 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.016 | 0.000 | -0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.010 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.227 | 1.000 | -0.227 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.179 | 0.000 | -0.179 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.277 | 0.400 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.366 | 0.200 | 0.034 | 0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.775 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.833 | 1.000 | 0.167 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.554 | 1.000 | -0.554 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.358 | 0.500 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.485 | 0.200 | 0.015 | 0.300 |
| predicted_SO | 0.887 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.729 | 3.000 | -0.729 | -3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | deboosted |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.1690 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8310, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 5.0200 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.0200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_SO: 0.8870 -> 0.9978 (boost 0.1108, worse) | predicted_AB: 5.0200 -> 4.6342 (deboost -0.3858, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3657 -> 0.3426 (deboost -0.0231, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.5588 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4412, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2978 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2978, worse) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=5.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.025 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.7477 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2523, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3426 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.1426, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 5.0000 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2000 -> 0.3426 (boost 0.1426, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "665161",
"player_name": "Jeremy Peña",
"position": "SS",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.169,
"predicted_3B": 0.014,
"predicted_AB": 5.02,
"predicted_AVG": 0.202,
"predicted_BB": 0.296,
"predicted_H": 1.01,
"predicted_HR": 0.12,
"predicted_OBP": 0.277,
"predicted_R": 0.775,
"predicted_RBI": 0.56,
"predicted_SLG": 0.358,
"predicted_SO": 0.887
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1597,
"predicted_3B": 0.0195,
"predicted_AB": 4.6342,
"predicted_AVG": 0.214,
"predicted_BB": 0.2956,
"predicted_H": 0.9828,
"predicted_HBP": 0.086,
"predicted_HR": 0.1255,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2836,
"predicted_R": 0.7169,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5358,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3657,
"predicted_SO": 0.9978
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.169,
"after": 0.1597,
"delta": -0.0093,
"percent_delta": -0.055,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.014,
"after": 0.0195,
"delta": 0.0055,
"percent_delta": 0.3929,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.02,
"after": 4.6342,
"delta": -0.3858,
"percent_delta": -0.0769,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.202,
"after": 0.214,
"delta": 0.012,
"percent_delta": 0.0594,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.296,
"after": 0.2956,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0014,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.01,
"after": 0.9828,
"delta": -0.0272,
"percent_delta": -0.0269,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.1255,
"delta": 0.0055,
"percent_delta": 0.0458,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.277,
"after": 0.2836,
"delta": 0.0066,
"percent_delta": 0.0238,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.775,
"after": 0.7169,
"delta": -0.0581,
"percent_delta": -0.075,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.56,
"after": 0.5358,
"delta": -0.0242,
"percent_delta": -0.0432,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.358,
"after": 0.3657,
"delta": 0.0077,
"percent_delta": 0.0215,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.887,
"after": 0.9978,
"delta": 0.1108,
"percent_delta": 0.1249,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.887,
"after": 0.9978,
"delta": 0.1108,
"percent_delta": 0.1249,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.02,
"after": 4.6342,
"delta": -0.3858,
"percent_delta": -0.0769,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 71
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1597,
"predicted_3B": 0.0195,
"predicted_AB": 4.6342,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2172,
"predicted_BB": 0.2978,
"predicted_H": 1.0066,
"predicted_HBP": 0.086,
"predicted_HR": 0.1274,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2645,
"predicted_R": 0.7477,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5588,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3426,
"predicted_SO": 0.9903
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1597,
"after": 0.1597,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0195,
"after": 0.0195,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.6342,
"after": 4.6342,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.214,
"after": 0.2172,
"delta": 0.0032,
"percent_delta": 0.015,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2956,
"after": 0.2978,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.0074,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9828,
"after": 1.0066,
"delta": 0.0238,
"percent_delta": 0.0242,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.086,
"after": 0.086,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1255,
"after": 0.1274,
"delta": 0.0019,
"percent_delta": 0.0151,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2836,
"after": 0.2645,
"delta": -0.0191,
"percent_delta": -0.0673,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.7169,
"after": 0.7477,
"delta": 0.0308,
"percent_delta": 0.043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5358,
"after": 0.5588,
"delta": 0.023,
"percent_delta": 0.0429,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3657,
"after": 0.3426,
"delta": -0.0231,
"percent_delta": -0.0632,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9978,
"after": 0.9903,
"delta": -0.0075,
"percent_delta": -0.0075,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 5 (raw=5.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.025",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.1597,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1597,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0195,
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},
{
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{
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"delta": -0.2978,
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0066,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": -0.086,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": -0.1274,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5588,
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"delta": 0.4412,
"percent_delta": 0.7895,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0097,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.4412,
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"direction": "boost",
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"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -0.2978,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.7477,
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"delta": 0.2523,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"delta": -0.0172,
"percent_delta": -0.0792,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.0645,
"percent_delta": -0.2439,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3426,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.1426,
"percent_delta": -0.4162,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3426,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.1426,
"percent_delta": -0.4162,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.2,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.2,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2172,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2645,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3426,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.2172,
"delta": 0.0172,
"percent_delta": 0.086,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.2645,
"delta": 0.0645,
"percent_delta": 0.3224,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.3426,
"delta": 0.1426,
"percent_delta": 0.7128,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.3426,
"delta": 0.1426,
"percent_delta": 0.7128,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.169,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.831,
"percent_delta": 4.9172,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.014,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.014,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.02,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.02,
"percent_delta": -0.2032,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.202,
"after": 0.2172,
"delta": 0.0152,
"percent_delta": 0.0752,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.296,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.704,
"percent_delta": 2.3784,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.01,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -0.0099,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.12,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.277,
"after": 0.2645,
"delta": -0.0125,
"percent_delta": -0.0451,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.775,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.225,
"percent_delta": 0.2903,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.56,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.56,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.358,
"after": 0.3426,
"delta": -0.0154,
"percent_delta": -0.043,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.887,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.887,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.169,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.831,
"percent_delta": 4.9172,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.02,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.02,
"percent_delta": -0.2032,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "deboosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.169 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.020 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.202 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.296 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.010 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.277 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.775 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.358 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.887 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.160 | -0.009 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.634 | -0.386 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.214 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.296 | -0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.983 | -0.027 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.086 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.126 | 0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.284 | 0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.717 | -0.058 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.536 | -0.024 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.366 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.998 | 0.111 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.160 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.634 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.217 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.298 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.007 | 0.024 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.086 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.127 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.265 | -0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.748 | 0.031 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.559 | 0.023 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.343 | -0.023 |
| predicted_SO | 0.990 | -0.008 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=5.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.025
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.160 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.366 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | -0.017 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.298 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.007 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.127 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.200 | -0.065 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.252 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.441 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.200 | -0.143 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.010 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 22.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 0.0455 | 0.0870 | 0.0455 | 0.0454 | 0.0000 | 0.0454 | 0.0454 | 0.4091 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 43.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 15.000 | 0.2093 | 0.3061 | 0.3721 | 0.2093 | 0.0233 | 0.1628 | 0.0930 | 0.3488 |
| season | 0.60 | 71 | - | 284.000 | 84.000 | 12.000 | 1.000 | 13.000 | 38.000 | 55.000 | 21.000 | 63.000 | 0.2958 | 0.3546 | 0.4824 | 0.2958 | 0.0458 | 0.1338 | 0.0739 | 0.2218 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1470 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0270 |
| predicted_AB | 4.1110 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2302 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2950 |
| predicted_H | 0.9460 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0860 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1330 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2926 |
| predicted_R | 0.6380 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5030 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3761 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1690 | 0.1470 | 0.1597 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0140 | 0.0270 | 0.0195 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.0200 | 4.1110 | 4.6342 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2020 | 0.2302 | 0.2140 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2960 | 0.2950 | 0.2956 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0100 | 0.9460 | 0.9828 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0860 | 0.0860 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1200 | 0.1330 | 0.1255 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2770 | 0.2926 | 0.2836 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.7750 | 0.6380 | 0.7169 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5600 | 0.5030 | 0.5358 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3580 | 0.3761 | 0.3657 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8870 | 1.1480 | 0.9978 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 251 |
| Season rows before report date | 251 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 71 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.296 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.2 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 3 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 665161 |
| playerID | 665161 |
| playerName | Jeremy Peña |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.367 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.349 |
| sl_xba | 0.294 |
| sl_xslg | 0.439 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.158 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.189 | 0.000 | 0.811 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 | -0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.560 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.992 | 4.000 | 1.008 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.198 | 0.400 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.241 | 0.000 | 0.159 | 0.400 |
| predicted_BB | 0.347 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.380 | 0.000 | -0.380 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.025 | 0.000 | -0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.900 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.961 | 0.000 | 1.039 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.155 | 0.000 | -0.155 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.274 | 0.400 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.307 | 0.000 | 0.093 | 0.400 |
| predicted_R | 0.568 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.642 | 0.000 | 0.358 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.389 | 1.000 | -0.389 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.023 | 0.000 | -0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.362 | 0.600 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.411 | 0.000 | 0.189 | 0.600 |
| predicted_SO | 0.863 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.910 | 1.000 | -0.910 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.9000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.1000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8630 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8630, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.1980 -> 0.2179 (boost 0.0199, better) | predicted_AB: 4.5600 -> 4.2586 (deboost -0.3014, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3776 -> 0.3589 (deboost -0.0187, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 4.2586 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.7414, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4441 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4441, worse) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.030 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5534 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4466, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3589 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.1589, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2000 -> 0.3589 (boost 0.1589, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "514888",
"player_name": "Jose Altuve",
"position": "2B",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.158,
"predicted_3B": 0.011,
"predicted_AB": 4.56,
"predicted_AVG": 0.198,
"predicted_BB": 0.347,
"predicted_H": 0.9,
"predicted_HR": 0.13,
"predicted_OBP": 0.274,
"predicted_R": 0.568,
"predicted_RBI": 0.44,
"predicted_SLG": 0.362,
"predicted_SO": 0.863
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1576,
"predicted_3B": 0.0093,
"predicted_AB": 4.2586,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2179,
"predicted_BB": 0.3534,
"predicted_H": 0.9181,
"predicted_HBP": 0.008,
"predicted_HR": 0.1352,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2876,
"predicted_R": 0.5306,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4258,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3776,
"predicted_SO": 0.7873
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.158,
"after": 0.1576,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.0093,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.1545,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.56,
"after": 4.2586,
"delta": -0.3014,
"percent_delta": -0.0661,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.198,
"after": 0.2179,
"delta": 0.0199,
"percent_delta": 0.1005,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.347,
"after": 0.3534,
"delta": 0.0064,
"percent_delta": 0.0184,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9,
"after": 0.9181,
"delta": 0.0181,
"percent_delta": 0.0201,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.1352,
"delta": 0.0052,
"percent_delta": 0.04,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.274,
"after": 0.2876,
"delta": 0.0136,
"percent_delta": 0.0496,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.568,
"after": 0.5306,
"delta": -0.0374,
"percent_delta": -0.0658,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.44,
"after": 0.4258,
"delta": -0.0142,
"percent_delta": -0.0323,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.362,
"after": 0.3776,
"delta": 0.0156,
"percent_delta": 0.0431,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.863,
"after": 0.7873,
"delta": -0.0757,
"percent_delta": -0.0877,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.198,
"after": 0.2179,
"delta": 0.0199,
"percent_delta": 0.1005,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.56,
"after": 4.2586,
"delta": -0.3014,
"percent_delta": -0.0661,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 95
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1576,
"predicted_3B": 0.0093,
"predicted_AB": 4.2586,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2208,
"predicted_BB": 0.3561,
"predicted_H": 0.9403,
"predicted_HBP": 0.008,
"predicted_HR": 0.1373,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2809,
"predicted_R": 0.5534,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4441,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3589,
"predicted_SO": 0.7814
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1576,
"after": 0.1576,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0093,
"after": 0.0093,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2586,
"after": 4.2586,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2179,
"after": 0.2208,
"delta": 0.0029,
"percent_delta": 0.0133,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3534,
"after": 0.3561,
"delta": 0.0027,
"percent_delta": 0.0076,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9181,
"after": 0.9403,
"delta": 0.0222,
"percent_delta": 0.0242,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.008,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1352,
"after": 0.1373,
"delta": 0.0021,
"percent_delta": 0.0155,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2876,
"after": 0.2809,
"delta": -0.0067,
"percent_delta": -0.0233,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5306,
"after": 0.5534,
"delta": 0.0228,
"percent_delta": 0.043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4258,
"after": 0.4441,
"delta": 0.0183,
"percent_delta": 0.043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3776,
"after": 0.3589,
"delta": -0.0187,
"percent_delta": -0.0495,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7873,
"after": 0.7814,
"delta": -0.0059,
"percent_delta": -0.0075,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3776,
"after": 0.3589,
"delta": -0.0187,
"percent_delta": -0.0495,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.030",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1576,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1576,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0093,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0093,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2586,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.7414,
"percent_delta": 0.1741,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3561,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3561,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9403,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0597,
"percent_delta": 0.0635,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1373,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1373,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4441,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4441,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7814,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2186,
"percent_delta": 0.2798,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2586,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.7414,
"percent_delta": 0.1741,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4441,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4441,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5534,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4466,
"percent_delta": 0.807,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5534,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4466,
"percent_delta": 0.807,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
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{
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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],
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},
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}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.158 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.560 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.198 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.347 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.900 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.274 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.568 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.362 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.863 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.158 | -0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 4.259 | -0.301 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.218 | 0.020 |
| predicted_BB | 0.353 | 0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.918 | 0.018 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.008 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.135 | 0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.288 | 0.014 |
| predicted_R | 0.531 | -0.037 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.426 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.378 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 0.787 | -0.076 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.158 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.259 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.356 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.940 | 0.022 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.137 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.553 | 0.023 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.444 | 0.018 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.359 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SO | 0.781 | -0.006 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.030
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.158 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.741 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | -0.021 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.356 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.060 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.137 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.200 | -0.081 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.447 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.444 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.200 | -0.159 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.219 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.2105 | 0.2727 | 0.4211 | 0.2105 | 0.0526 | 0.1053 | 0.1053 | 0.1053 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 0.2895 | 0.3488 | 0.3947 | 0.2895 | 0.0263 | 0.1316 | 0.1053 | 0.1053 |
| season | 0.60 | 95 | - | 371.000 | 89.000 | 15.000 | 1.000 | 13.000 | 35.000 | 54.000 | 33.000 | 82.000 | 0.2399 | 0.3022 | 0.3908 | 0.2399 | 0.0350 | 0.0943 | 0.0890 | 0.2210 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1570 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8590 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2442 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3620 |
| predicted_H | 0.9420 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0080 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1420 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3056 |
| predicted_R | 0.4810 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4070 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3984 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6870 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1580 | 0.1570 | 0.1576 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0110 | 0.0070 | 0.0093 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.5600 | 3.8590 | 4.2586 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1980 | 0.2442 | 0.2179 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3470 | 0.3620 | 0.3534 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9000 | 0.9420 | 0.9181 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0080 | 0.0080 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 | 0.1420 | 0.1352 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2740 | 0.3056 | 0.2876 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5680 | 0.4810 | 0.5306 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4400 | 0.4070 | 0.4258 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3620 | 0.3984 | 0.3776 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8630 | 0.6870 | 0.7873 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 355 |
| Season rows before report date | 355 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 95 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.24 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 1 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 514888 |
| playerID | 514888 |
| playerName | Jose Altuve |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.308 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.279 |
| sl_xba | 0.225 |
| sl_xslg | 0.336 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 8.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.187 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.201 | 1.000 | -0.201 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.310 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.757 | 4.000 | 0.243 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.260 | 0.500 | -0.260 | -0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.411 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.428 | 1.000 | 0.572 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.970 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.976 | 2.000 | -0.976 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.144 | 0.000 | -0.144 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.334 | 0.200 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.353 | 0.600 | -0.153 | -0.400 |
| predicted_R | 0.393 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.459 | 0.000 | -0.459 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.593 | 2.000 | -0.593 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.432 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.434 | 0.750 | -0.434 | -0.750 |
| predicted_SO | 0.616 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.650 | 0.000 | 1.350 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.6160 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3840, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.9700 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9700, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2250 -> 0.2439 (boost 0.0189, better) | predicted_AB: 4.3100 -> 4.0067 (deboost -0.3033, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4339 -> 0.3859 (deboost -0.0480, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_RBI: 0.5525 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4475, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3997 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3997, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.024 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3787 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3787, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3859 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1359, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3859 (boost 0.1359, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "670623",
"player_name": "Isaac Paredes",
"position": "3B",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.187,
"predicted_3B": 0.009,
"predicted_AB": 4.31,
"predicted_AVG": 0.225,
"predicted_BB": 0.411,
"predicted_H": 0.97,
"predicted_HR": 0.1,
"predicted_OBP": 0.334,
"predicted_R": 0.393,
"predicted_RBI": 0.56,
"predicted_SLG": 0.432,
"predicted_SO": 0.616
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.232,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 4.0067,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2439,
"predicted_BB": 0.3967,
"predicted_H": 0.9696,
"predicted_HBP": 0.1,
"predicted_HR": 0.1004,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3422,
"predicted_R": 0.3631,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5297,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4339,
"predicted_SO": 0.5684
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.187,
"after": 0.232,
"delta": 0.045,
"percent_delta": 0.2406,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.31,
"after": 4.0067,
"delta": -0.3033,
"percent_delta": -0.0704,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.225,
"after": 0.2439,
"delta": 0.0189,
"percent_delta": 0.084,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.411,
"after": 0.3967,
"delta": -0.0143,
"percent_delta": -0.0348,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.97,
"after": 0.9696,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.1004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.334,
"after": 0.3422,
"delta": 0.0082,
"percent_delta": 0.0246,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.393,
"after": 0.3631,
"delta": -0.0299,
"percent_delta": -0.0761,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.56,
"after": 0.5297,
"delta": -0.0303,
"percent_delta": -0.0541,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.432,
"after": 0.4339,
"delta": 0.0019,
"percent_delta": 0.0044,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.616,
"after": 0.5684,
"delta": -0.0476,
"percent_delta": -0.0773,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.225,
"after": 0.2439,
"delta": 0.0189,
"percent_delta": 0.084,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.31,
"after": 4.0067,
"delta": -0.3033,
"percent_delta": -0.0704,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 112
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.232,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 4.0067,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2479,
"predicted_BB": 0.3997,
"predicted_H": 0.9931,
"predicted_HBP": 0.1,
"predicted_HR": 0.1019,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3161,
"predicted_R": 0.3787,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5525,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3859,
"predicted_SO": 0.5641
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.232,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0067,
"after": 4.0067,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2439,
"after": 0.2479,
"delta": 0.004,
"percent_delta": 0.0164,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3967,
"after": 0.3997,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0076,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9696,
"after": 0.9931,
"delta": 0.0235,
"percent_delta": 0.0242,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1004,
"after": 0.1019,
"delta": 0.0015,
"percent_delta": 0.0149,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3422,
"after": 0.3161,
"delta": -0.0261,
"percent_delta": -0.0763,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3631,
"after": 0.3787,
"delta": 0.0156,
"percent_delta": 0.043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5297,
"after": 0.5525,
"delta": 0.0228,
"percent_delta": 0.043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4339,
"after": 0.3859,
"delta": -0.048,
"percent_delta": -0.1106,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5684,
"after": 0.5641,
"delta": -0.0043,
"percent_delta": -0.0076,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4339,
"after": 0.3859,
"delta": -0.048,
"percent_delta": -0.1106,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.024",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.232,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0067,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.0067,
"percent_delta": -0.0017,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3997,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3997,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9931,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0069,
"percent_delta": 0.0069,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1019,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1019,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5525,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4475,
"percent_delta": 0.81,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5641,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4359,
"percent_delta": 0.7727,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5525,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4475,
"percent_delta": 0.81,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3997,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3997,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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],
"summary": {
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
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{
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{
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{
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],
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2479,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3161,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3859,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0661,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": 0.1359,
"percent_delta": 0.5437,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.393,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.393,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.56,
"after": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.432,
"after": 0.3859,
"delta": -0.0461,
"percent_delta": -0.1067,
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},
{
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"before": 0.616,
"after": 2.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 9,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.97,
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.187 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.310 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.411 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.970 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.334 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.393 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.432 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.616 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.232 | 0.045 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.007 | -0.303 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.019 |
| predicted_BB | 0.397 | -0.014 |
| predicted_H | 0.970 | -0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.342 | 0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.363 | -0.030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.530 | -0.030 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.434 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.568 | -0.048 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.232 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.248 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.400 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.993 | 0.023 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.100 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.102 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | -0.026 |
| predicted_R | 0.379 | 0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.552 | 0.023 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.386 | -0.048 |
| predicted_SO | 0.564 | -0.004 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.024
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.232 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.007 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.400 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.007 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.102 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.066 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.379 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.448 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.136 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.436 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.3529 | 0.3889 | 0.5294 | 0.3529 | 0.0000 | 0.1177 | 0.0588 | 0.0588 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3571 | 0.4167 | 0.2500 | 0.0278 | 0.1111 | 0.1389 | 0.1111 |
| season | 0.60 | 112 | - | 410.000 | 102.000 | 21.000 | 1.000 | 15.000 | 62.000 | 44.000 | 46.000 | 69.000 | 0.2488 | 0.3445 | 0.4146 | 0.2488 | 0.0366 | 0.1512 | 0.1122 | 0.1683 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2910 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6090 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2686 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3780 |
| predicted_H | 0.9690 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3529 |
| predicted_R | 0.3240 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4900 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4363 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5060 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1870 | 0.2910 | 0.2320 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0060 | 0.0077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.3100 | 3.6090 | 4.0067 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2250 | 0.2686 | 0.2439 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4110 | 0.3780 | 0.3967 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9700 | 0.9690 | 0.9696 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1000 | 0.1010 | 0.1004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3340 | 0.3529 | 0.3422 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3930 | 0.3240 | 0.3631 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5600 | 0.4900 | 0.5297 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4320 | 0.4363 | 0.4339 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6160 | 0.5060 | 0.5684 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 423 |
| Season rows before report date | 423 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 112 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.249 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 3 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B-1B |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 670623 |
| playerID | 670623 |
| playerName | Isaac Paredes |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.337 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.321 |
| sl_xba | 0.247 |
| sl_xslg | 0.373 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 29.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 23.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 15.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.137 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.205 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 0.548 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.137 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.278 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_R | 0.308 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.411 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.438 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.822 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.8220 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.1780, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.5480 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5480, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4380 -> 0.4125 (deboost -0.0255, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4125 -> 0.4193 (boost 0.0068, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 2.5475 -> 3.0000 (boost 0.4525, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3776 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3776, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.047 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.2930 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2930, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2200 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1130, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4193 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0863, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4193 (boost 0.0863, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2200 (deboost -0.1130, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "676369",
"player_name": "Nelson Velázquez",
"position": "LF",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.5,
"predicted_AVG": 0.219,
"predicted_BB": 0.205,
"predicted_H": 0.548,
"predicted_HR": 0.137,
"predicted_OBP": 0.278,
"predicted_R": 0.308,
"predicted_RBI": 0.411,
"predicted_SLG": 0.438,
"predicted_SO": 0.822
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1437,
"predicted_3B": 0.0011,
"predicted_AB": 2.5475,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2148,
"predicted_BB": 0.1898,
"predicted_H": 0.5473,
"predicted_HBP": 0.022,
"predicted_HR": 0.1188,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2706,
"predicted_R": 0.2809,
"predicted_RBI": 0.362,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4125,
"predicted_SO": 0.8413
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.137,
"after": 0.1437,
"delta": 0.0067,
"percent_delta": 0.0489,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0011,
"delta": 0.0011,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 2.5475,
"delta": 0.0475,
"percent_delta": 0.019,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.219,
"after": 0.2148,
"delta": -0.0042,
"percent_delta": -0.0192,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.205,
"after": 0.1898,
"delta": -0.0152,
"percent_delta": -0.0741,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.548,
"after": 0.5473,
"delta": -0.0007,
"percent_delta": -0.0013,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.137,
"after": 0.1188,
"delta": -0.0182,
"percent_delta": -0.1328,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.278,
"after": 0.2706,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.0266,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.308,
"after": 0.2809,
"delta": -0.0271,
"percent_delta": -0.088,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.411,
"after": 0.362,
"delta": -0.049,
"percent_delta": -0.1192,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.438,
"after": 0.4125,
"delta": -0.0255,
"percent_delta": -0.0582,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.822,
"after": 0.8413,
"delta": 0.0193,
"percent_delta": 0.0235,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.4125,
"delta": -0.0255,
"percent_delta": -0.0582,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 31
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1437,
"predicted_3B": 0.0011,
"predicted_AB": 2.5475,
"predicted_AVG": 0.22,
"predicted_BB": 0.1912,
"predicted_H": 0.5605,
"predicted_HBP": 0.022,
"predicted_HR": 0.1206,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2745,
"predicted_R": 0.293,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3776,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4193,
"predicted_SO": 0.835
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1437,
"after": 0.1437,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0011,
"after": 0.0011,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5475,
"after": 2.5475,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2148,
"after": 0.22,
"delta": 0.0052,
"percent_delta": 0.0242,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1898,
"after": 0.1912,
"delta": 0.0014,
"percent_delta": 0.0074,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5473,
"after": 0.5605,
"delta": 0.0132,
"percent_delta": 0.0241,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.022,
"after": 0.022,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1188,
"after": 0.1206,
"delta": 0.0018,
"percent_delta": 0.0152,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2706,
"after": 0.2745,
"delta": 0.0039,
"percent_delta": 0.0144,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.2809,
"after": 0.293,
"delta": 0.0121,
"percent_delta": 0.0431,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.362,
"after": 0.3776,
"delta": 0.0156,
"percent_delta": 0.0431,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4125,
"after": 0.4193,
"delta": 0.0068,
"percent_delta": 0.0165,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8413,
"after": 0.835,
"delta": -0.0063,
"percent_delta": -0.0075,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.4125,
"after": 0.4193,
"delta": 0.0068,
"percent_delta": 0.0165,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.047",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1437,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1437,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0011,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0011,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5475,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.4525,
"percent_delta": 0.1776,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1912,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1912,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5605,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4395,
"percent_delta": 0.7841,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.022,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.022,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1206,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1206,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3776,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3776,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.835,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.165,
"percent_delta": 0.1976,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5475,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.4525,
"percent_delta": 0.1776,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3776,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3776,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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},
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{
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{
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},
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}
],
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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"stats": {
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.22,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2745,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
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"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4193,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0863,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.548,
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"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.137,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.278,
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"delta": -0.0035,
"percent_delta": -0.0126,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.308,
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"delta": 0.692,
"percent_delta": 2.2468,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.411,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.589,
"percent_delta": 1.4331,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.438,
"after": 0.4193,
"delta": -0.0187,
"percent_delta": -0.0427,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.822,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.178,
"percent_delta": 1.4331,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.822,
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"delta": 1.178,
"percent_delta": 1.4331,
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.548,
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"delta": -0.548,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.137 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.205 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.548 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.137 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.278 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.308 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.411 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.438 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.822 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.144 | 0.007 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 2.547 | 0.047 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.215 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.190 | -0.015 |
| predicted_H | 0.547 | -0.001 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.022 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | -0.018 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.271 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.281 | -0.027 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.362 | -0.049 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.412 | -0.026 |
| predicted_SO | 0.841 | 0.019 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.144 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.547 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.220 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.191 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.560 | 0.013 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.121 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.275 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.293 | 0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.378 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.419 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.835 | -0.006 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.047
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.144 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.453 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.113 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.191 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.440 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.121 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.058 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.293 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.378 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.086 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.165 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 10.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.3000 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.3000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 19.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 11.000 | 0.1053 | 0.1500 | 0.1579 | 0.1053 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0526 | 0.5789 |
| season | 0.60 | 31 | - | 73.000 | 16.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 12.000 | 9.000 | 6.000 | 24.000 | 0.2192 | 0.2840 | 0.4384 | 0.2192 | 0.0548 | 0.1644 | 0.0822 | 0.3288 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0030 |
| predicted_AB | 2.6280 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2076 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1640 |
| predicted_H | 0.5460 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0220 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0880 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2580 |
| predicted_R | 0.2350 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2790 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3693 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8740 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1370 | 0.1550 | 0.1437 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0030 | 0.0011 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.5000 | 2.6280 | 2.5475 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2190 | 0.2076 | 0.2148 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2050 | 0.1640 | 0.1898 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.5480 | 0.5460 | 0.5473 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0220 | 0.0220 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1370 | 0.0880 | 0.1188 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2780 | 0.2580 | 0.2706 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3080 | 0.2350 | 0.2809 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4110 | 0.2790 | 0.3620 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4380 | 0.3693 | 0.4125 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8220 | 0.8740 | 0.8413 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 31 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 1 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.219 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.214 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.209 | 1.000 | -0.209 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.850 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.728 | 5.000 | 1.272 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.345 | 0.200 | 0.400 | Hitting_AVG | 0.342 | 0.400 | -0.142 | -0.200 |
| predicted_BB | 0.701 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.717 | 0.000 | -0.717 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.680 | 1.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_H | 1.275 | 2.000 | -0.275 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.351 | 0.000 | -0.351 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.415 | 0.200 | 0.500 | Hitting_OBP | 0.451 | 0.400 | -0.251 | -0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.684 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.734 | 1.000 | 0.266 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.840 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.797 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.573 | 0.200 | 0.400 | Hitting_SLG | 0.680 | 0.600 | -0.480 | -0.400 |
| predicted_SO | 0.752 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.749 | 0.000 | -0.749 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_R: 0.6840 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3160, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.7520 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7520, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | - | predicted_AB: 4.8500 -> 4.3982 (deboost -0.4518, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.4090 -> 0.4259 (boost 0.0169, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.5465 -> 0.5389 (deboost -0.0076, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | predicted_AB: 4.3982 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.6018, better) | predicted_2B: 0.2353 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2353, worse) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.305 HR/AB=0.045 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6809 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3191, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.4259 -> 0.5000 (boost 0.0741, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.5389 -> 0.4000 (deboost -0.1389, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.4000 -> 0.5389 (boost 0.1389, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.5000 -> 0.4259 (deboost -0.0741, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "670541",
"player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
"position": "DH",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.214,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.85,
"predicted_AVG": 0.345,
"predicted_BB": 0.701,
"predicted_H": 1.68,
"predicted_HR": 0.24,
"predicted_OBP": 0.415,
"predicted_R": 0.684,
"predicted_RBI": 0.84,
"predicted_SLG": 0.573,
"predicted_SO": 0.752
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2353,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.3982,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3243,
"predicted_BB": 0.6849,
"predicted_H": 1.4422,
"predicted_HBP": 0.032,
"predicted_HR": 0.2157,
"predicted_OBP": 0.409,
"predicted_R": 0.6528,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7536,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5465,
"predicted_SO": 0.7776
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.214,
"after": 0.2353,
"delta": 0.0213,
"percent_delta": 0.0995,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.85,
"after": 4.3982,
"delta": -0.4518,
"percent_delta": -0.0932,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 0.3243,
"delta": -0.0207,
"percent_delta": -0.06,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.701,
"after": 0.6849,
"delta": -0.0161,
"percent_delta": -0.023,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.68,
"after": 1.4422,
"delta": -0.2378,
"percent_delta": -0.1415,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2157,
"delta": -0.0243,
"percent_delta": -0.1012,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.415,
"after": 0.409,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -0.0145,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.684,
"after": 0.6528,
"delta": -0.0312,
"percent_delta": -0.0456,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.84,
"after": 0.7536,
"delta": -0.0864,
"percent_delta": -0.1029,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.573,
"after": 0.5465,
"delta": -0.0265,
"percent_delta": -0.0462,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.752,
"after": 0.7776,
"delta": 0.0256,
"percent_delta": 0.034,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.85,
"after": 4.3982,
"delta": -0.4518,
"percent_delta": -0.0932,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 117
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2353,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.3982,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3358,
"predicted_BB": 0.69,
"predicted_H": 1.4771,
"predicted_HBP": 0.032,
"predicted_HR": 0.219,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4259,
"predicted_R": 0.6809,
"predicted_RBI": 0.786,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5389,
"predicted_SO": 0.7718
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2353,
"after": 0.2353,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.3982,
"after": 4.3982,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.3243,
"after": 0.3358,
"delta": 0.0115,
"percent_delta": 0.0355,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.6849,
"after": 0.69,
"delta": 0.0051,
"percent_delta": 0.0074,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.4422,
"after": 1.4771,
"delta": 0.0349,
"percent_delta": 0.0242,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.032,
"after": 0.032,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2157,
"after": 0.219,
"delta": 0.0033,
"percent_delta": 0.0153,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 0.4259,
"delta": 0.0169,
"percent_delta": 0.0413,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6528,
"after": 0.6809,
"delta": 0.0281,
"percent_delta": 0.043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7536,
"after": 0.786,
"delta": 0.0324,
"percent_delta": 0.043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5465,
"after": 0.5389,
"delta": -0.0076,
"percent_delta": -0.0139,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7776,
"after": 0.7718,
"delta": -0.0058,
"percent_delta": -0.0075,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 0.4259,
"delta": 0.0169,
"percent_delta": 0.0413,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5465,
"after": 0.5389,
"delta": -0.0076,
"percent_delta": -0.0139,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.305 HR/AB=0.045",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2353,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2353,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.3982,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.6018,
"percent_delta": 0.1368,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.69,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.31,
"percent_delta": 0.4493,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.4771,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.5229,
"percent_delta": 0.354,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.032,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.032,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.219,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.219,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.786,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.214,
"percent_delta": 0.2723,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7718,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2282,
"percent_delta": 0.2957,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 4.3982,
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},
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
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"stats": {
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{
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{
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{
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},
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],
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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}
],
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},
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
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},
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},
{
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{
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},
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AVG": 0.3358,
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"predicted_R": 1.0,
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"predicted_SLG": 0.5389,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.84,
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},
{
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"before": 0.573,
"after": 0.5389,
"delta": -0.0341,
"percent_delta": -0.0595,
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},
{
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"before": 0.752,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 7,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.214 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.850 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.345 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.701 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.680 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.240 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.415 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.684 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.840 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.573 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.752 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.235 | 0.021 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.398 | -0.452 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.324 | -0.021 |
| predicted_BB | 0.685 | -0.016 |
| predicted_H | 1.442 | -0.238 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.032 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.216 | -0.024 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.409 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.653 | -0.031 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.754 | -0.086 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.546 | -0.026 |
| predicted_SO | 0.778 | 0.026 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.235 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.398 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.336 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.690 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 1.477 | 0.035 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.032 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.219 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.426 | 0.017 |
| predicted_R | 0.681 | 0.028 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.786 | 0.032 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.539 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.772 | -0.006 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.305 HR/AB=0.045
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 2.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.235 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.602 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.400 | 0.064 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.310 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 0.523 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.219 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.500 | 0.074 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.319 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.214 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.400 | -0.139 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.228 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.1905 | 0.2609 | 0.2381 | 0.1905 | 0.0000 | 0.0952 | 0.0952 | 0.2381 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 13.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 9.000 | 8.000 | 0.3333 | 0.4583 | 0.4615 | 0.3333 | 0.0000 | 0.1538 | 0.2308 | 0.2051 |
| season | 0.60 | 117 | - | 427.000 | 139.000 | 25.000 | 0.000 | 35.000 | 86.000 | 80.000 | 82.000 | 88.000 | 0.3255 | 0.4382 | 0.6300 | 0.3255 | 0.0820 | 0.2014 | 0.1920 | 0.2061 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2630 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8090 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2972 |
| predicted_BB | 0.6640 |
| predicted_H | 1.1320 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0320 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1840 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4012 |
| predicted_R | 0.6120 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6410 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5120 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8110 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2140 | 0.2630 | 0.2353 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.8500 | 3.8090 | 4.3982 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3450 | 0.2972 | 0.3243 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.7010 | 0.6640 | 0.6849 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.6800 | 1.1320 | 1.4422 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0320 | 0.0320 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2400 | 0.1840 | 0.2157 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4150 | 0.4012 | 0.4090 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6840 | 0.6120 | 0.6528 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.8400 | 0.6410 | 0.7536 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5730 | 0.5120 | 0.5465 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7520 | 0.8110 | 0.7776 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 459 |
| Season rows before report date | 459 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 117 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.326 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.4 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 3 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 670541 |
| playerID | 670541 |
| playerName | Yordan Alvarez |
| pos | DH |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 15.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.44 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.465 |
| sl_xba | 0.332 |
| sl_xslg | 0.689 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 41.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 17.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 53.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 94.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 19.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.138 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.153 | 0.000 | -0.153 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.018 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.610 | 2.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.557 | 4.000 | -1.557 | -2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.279 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.220 | 0.750 | -0.220 | -0.750 |
| predicted_BB | 0.312 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.341 | 0.000 | 0.659 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.010 | 0.000 | -0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.010 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.781 | 3.000 | -0.781 | -3.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.300 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.135 | 1.000 | -0.135 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.352 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.294 | 0.750 | 0.206 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.468 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.440 | 2.000 | -0.440 | -2.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.680 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.410 | 2.000 | -0.410 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.559 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.385 | 1.500 | -0.385 | -1.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.972 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.975 | 1.000 | 0.025 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.3120 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6880, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.6100 -> 2.0000 (deboost -1.6100, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.4680 -> 0.5516 (boost 0.0836, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.5638 -> 0.5846 (boost 0.0208, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.6354 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.3646, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3126 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3126, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.300 HR/AB=0.079 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5753 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4247, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5846 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.3346, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 2.0000 (deboost -2.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.5846 (boost 0.3346, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "701358",
"player_name": "Cam Smith",
"position": "RF",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.138,
"predicted_3B": 0.018,
"predicted_AB": 3.61,
"predicted_AVG": 0.279,
"predicted_BB": 0.312,
"predicted_H": 1.01,
"predicted_HR": 0.3,
"predicted_OBP": 0.352,
"predicted_R": 0.468,
"predicted_RBI": 0.68,
"predicted_SLG": 0.559,
"predicted_SO": 0.972
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1324,
"predicted_3B": 0.0223,
"predicted_AB": 3.6354,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2921,
"predicted_BB": 0.3103,
"predicted_H": 1.0639,
"predicted_HBP": 0.034,
"predicted_HR": 0.2819,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3586,
"predicted_R": 0.5516,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6391,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5638,
"predicted_SO": 1.0198
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.138,
"after": 0.1324,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -0.0406,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.018,
"after": 0.0223,
"delta": 0.0043,
"percent_delta": 0.2389,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.61,
"after": 3.6354,
"delta": 0.0254,
"percent_delta": 0.007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.279,
"after": 0.2921,
"delta": 0.0131,
"percent_delta": 0.047,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.3103,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.0054,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.01,
"after": 1.0639,
"delta": 0.0539,
"percent_delta": 0.0534,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 0.2819,
"delta": -0.0181,
"percent_delta": -0.0603,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.352,
"after": 0.3586,
"delta": 0.0066,
"percent_delta": 0.0187,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.468,
"after": 0.5516,
"delta": 0.0836,
"percent_delta": 0.1786,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.68,
"after": 0.6391,
"delta": -0.0409,
"percent_delta": -0.0601,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.559,
"after": 0.5638,
"delta": 0.0048,
"percent_delta": 0.0086,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.972,
"after": 1.0198,
"delta": 0.0478,
"percent_delta": 0.0492,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.468,
"after": 0.5516,
"delta": 0.0836,
"percent_delta": 0.1786,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 109
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1324,
"predicted_3B": 0.0223,
"predicted_AB": 3.6354,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2997,
"predicted_BB": 0.3126,
"predicted_H": 1.0896,
"predicted_HBP": 0.034,
"predicted_HR": 0.2862,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3552,
"predicted_R": 0.5753,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6666,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5846,
"predicted_SO": 1.0122
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1324,
"after": 0.1324,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0223,
"after": 0.0223,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6354,
"after": 3.6354,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2921,
"after": 0.2997,
"delta": 0.0076,
"percent_delta": 0.026,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3103,
"after": 0.3126,
"delta": 0.0023,
"percent_delta": 0.0074,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0639,
"after": 1.0896,
"delta": 0.0257,
"percent_delta": 0.0242,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.034,
"after": 0.034,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2819,
"after": 0.2862,
"delta": 0.0043,
"percent_delta": 0.0153,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3586,
"after": 0.3552,
"delta": -0.0034,
"percent_delta": -0.0095,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5516,
"after": 0.5753,
"delta": 0.0237,
"percent_delta": 0.043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6391,
"after": 0.6666,
"delta": 0.0275,
"percent_delta": 0.043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5638,
"after": 0.5846,
"delta": 0.0208,
"percent_delta": 0.0369,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0198,
"after": 1.0122,
"delta": -0.0076,
"percent_delta": -0.0075,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5638,
"after": 0.5846,
"delta": 0.0208,
"percent_delta": 0.0369,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.300 HR/AB=0.079",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1324,
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"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.61,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -1.61,
"percent_delta": -0.446,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.138 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.018 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.610 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.279 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.010 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.300 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.352 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.468 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.680 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.559 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.972 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.132 | -0.006 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | 0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 3.635 | 0.025 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.292 | 0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.310 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.064 | 0.054 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.034 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.282 | -0.018 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.359 | 0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.552 | 0.084 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.639 | -0.041 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.564 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 1.020 | 0.048 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.132 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.635 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.300 | 0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.313 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.090 | 0.026 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.034 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.286 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.355 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.575 | 0.024 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.667 | 0.027 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.585 | 0.021 |
| predicted_SO | 1.012 | -0.008 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.300 HR/AB=0.079
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.132 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.022 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.365 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.050 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.313 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.090 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.286 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.105 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.425 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.333 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.335 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.012 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 2.000 | -2.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.5000 | 0.5500 | 1.0000 | 0.5000 | 0.1667 | 0.2778 | 0.1111 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 41.000 | 16.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 14.000 | 0.3902 | 0.4186 | 0.7073 | 0.3902 | 0.0732 | 0.1951 | 0.0488 | 0.3415 |
| season | 0.60 | 109 | - | 385.000 | 87.000 | 15.000 | 2.000 | 16.000 | 43.000 | 51.000 | 34.000 | 106.000 | 0.2260 | 0.2967 | 0.4000 | 0.2260 | 0.0416 | 0.1117 | 0.0883 | 0.2753 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1250 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0280 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6690 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3094 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3080 |
| predicted_H | 1.1350 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0340 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2580 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3674 |
| predicted_R | 0.6620 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5850 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5702 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0830 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1380 | 0.1250 | 0.1324 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0180 | 0.0280 | 0.0223 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6100 | 3.6690 | 3.6354 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2790 | 0.3094 | 0.2921 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3120 | 0.3080 | 0.3103 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0100 | 1.1350 | 1.0639 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0340 | 0.0340 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.3000 | 0.2580 | 0.2819 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3520 | 0.3674 | 0.3586 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4680 | 0.6620 | 0.5516 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6800 | 0.5850 | 0.6391 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5590 | 0.5702 | 0.5638 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9720 | 1.0830 | 1.0198 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 393 |
| Season rows before report date | 393 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 109 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 2 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 1 |
| season_avg | 0.226 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.75 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 3 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 6 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 701358 |
| playerID | 701358 |
| playerName | Cam Smith |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.3 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.329 |
| sl_xba | 0.246 |
| sl_xslg | 0.436 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.209 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.206 | 0.000 | -0.206 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.687 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.843 | 3.000 | 0.157 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.249 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.365 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.354 | 1.000 | -0.354 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.850 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.956 | 0.000 | 1.044 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.215 | 0.000 | 1.785 | 2.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.345 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.325 | 0.250 | 0.175 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.513 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.560 | 0.000 | 0.440 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.550 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.651 | 0.000 | 1.349 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.385 | 2.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.475 | 0.000 | 1.525 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.965 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.979 | 0.000 | 0.021 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_HR: 0.1100 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.8900, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.3650 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3650, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.3650 -> 0.4243 (boost 0.0593, better) | predicted_SO: 0.9650 -> 0.8625 (deboost -0.1025, better) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4052 -> 0.4102 (boost 0.0050, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3501 -> 0.3246 (deboost -0.0255, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | predicted_RBI: 0.5827 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4173, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4275 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4275, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.033 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5319 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4681, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4102 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1602, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4102 (boost 0.1602, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "572233",
"player_name": "Christian Walker",
"position": "1B",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.209,
"predicted_3B": 0.009,
"predicted_AB": 3.687,
"predicted_AVG": 0.233,
"predicted_BB": 0.365,
"predicted_H": 0.85,
"predicted_HR": 0.11,
"predicted_OBP": 0.345,
"predicted_R": 0.513,
"predicted_RBI": 0.55,
"predicted_SLG": 0.385,
"predicted_SO": 0.965
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2228,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 3.6351,
"predicted_AVG": 0.241,
"predicted_BB": 0.4243,
"predicted_H": 0.8703,
"predicted_HBP": 0.107,
"predicted_HR": 0.1187,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3501,
"predicted_R": 0.51,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5587,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4052,
"predicted_SO": 0.8625
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.209,
"after": 0.2228,
"delta": 0.0138,
"percent_delta": 0.066,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.687,
"after": 3.6351,
"delta": -0.0519,
"percent_delta": -0.0141,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.233,
"after": 0.241,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0343,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.365,
"after": 0.4243,
"delta": 0.0593,
"percent_delta": 0.1625,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.85,
"after": 0.8703,
"delta": 0.0203,
"percent_delta": 0.0239,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.11,
"after": 0.1187,
"delta": 0.0087,
"percent_delta": 0.0791,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 0.3501,
"delta": 0.0051,
"percent_delta": 0.0148,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.513,
"after": 0.51,
"delta": -0.003,
"percent_delta": -0.0058,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.55,
"after": 0.5587,
"delta": 0.0087,
"percent_delta": 0.0158,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.385,
"after": 0.4052,
"delta": 0.0202,
"percent_delta": 0.0525,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.965,
"after": 0.8625,
"delta": -0.1025,
"percent_delta": -0.1062,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.365,
"after": 0.4243,
"delta": 0.0593,
"percent_delta": 0.1625,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.965,
"after": 0.8625,
"delta": -0.1025,
"percent_delta": -0.1062,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 115
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2228,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 3.6351,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2452,
"predicted_BB": 0.4275,
"predicted_H": 0.8914,
"predicted_HBP": 0.107,
"predicted_HR": 0.1205,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3246,
"predicted_R": 0.5319,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5827,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4102,
"predicted_SO": 0.856
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2228,
"after": 0.2228,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6351,
"after": 3.6351,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.2452,
"delta": 0.0042,
"percent_delta": 0.0174,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4243,
"after": 0.4275,
"delta": 0.0032,
"percent_delta": 0.0075,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8703,
"after": 0.8914,
"delta": 0.0211,
"percent_delta": 0.0242,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.107,
"after": 0.107,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1187,
"after": 0.1205,
"delta": 0.0018,
"percent_delta": 0.0152,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3501,
"after": 0.3246,
"delta": -0.0255,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.85,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.15,
"percent_delta": 1.3529,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.11,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.89,
"percent_delta": 17.1818,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 0.3246,
"delta": -0.0204,
"percent_delta": -0.0591,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.513,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.487,
"percent_delta": 0.9493,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.55,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.45,
"percent_delta": 2.6364,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.385,
"after": 0.4102,
"delta": 0.0252,
"percent_delta": 0.0655,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.965,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.035,
"percent_delta": 0.0363,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 7,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 7,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.11,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.89,
"percent_delta": 17.1818,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.365,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.365,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.209 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.687 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.365 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.850 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.345 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.513 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.550 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.385 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.965 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.223 | 0.014 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.635 | -0.052 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | 0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.424 | 0.059 |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.107 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.350 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.510 | -0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.559 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.405 | 0.020 |
| predicted_SO | 0.863 | -0.102 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.223 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.635 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.427 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.891 | 0.021 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.107 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | -0.026 |
| predicted_R | 0.532 | 0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.583 | 0.024 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.410 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 0.856 | -0.007 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.033
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.223 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.365 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.427 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.109 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.120 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.075 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.468 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.417 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.160 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.144 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.2667 | 0.4500 | 0.3333 | 0.2667 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.2667 | 0.0667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 10.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 0.2703 | 0.3864 | 0.4595 | 0.2703 | 0.0270 | 0.1351 | 0.1622 | 0.1622 |
| season | 0.60 | 115 | - | 424.000 | 102.000 | 24.000 | 1.000 | 22.000 | 67.000 | 59.000 | 42.000 | 111.000 | 0.2406 | 0.3214 | 0.4575 | 0.2406 | 0.0519 | 0.1580 | 0.0991 | 0.2618 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2410 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5670 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2515 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5020 |
| predicted_H | 0.8970 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1070 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3569 |
| predicted_R | 0.5060 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5700 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4316 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7280 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2090 | 0.2410 | 0.2228 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0060 | 0.0077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6870 | 3.5670 | 3.6351 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2330 | 0.2515 | 0.2410 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3650 | 0.5020 | 0.4243 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8500 | 0.8970 | 0.8703 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1070 | 0.1070 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1100 | 0.1300 | 0.1187 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3450 | 0.3569 | 0.3501 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5130 | 0.5060 | 0.5100 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5500 | 0.5700 | 0.5587 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3850 | 0.4316 | 0.4052 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9650 | 0.7280 | 0.8625 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 427 |
| Season rows before report date | 427 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 115 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 2 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.241 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 572233 |
| playerID | 572233 |
| playerName | Christian Walker |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.337 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.308 |
| sl_xba | 0.229 |
| sl_xslg | 0.391 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.192 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.850 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.571 | 4.000 | 0.429 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.211 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.130 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.323 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.571 | 0.000 | -0.571 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.810 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.429 | 0.000 | 0.571 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.143 | 0.000 | -0.143 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.241 | 0.000 | 0.009 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.404 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.286 | 0.000 | 0.714 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.360 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.286 | 0.000 | -0.286 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.318 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.778 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.857 | 1.000 | 1.143 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | boosted |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.7780 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.2220, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.3600 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3600, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_AB: 3.8500 -> 3.7526 (deboost -0.0974, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3189 -> 0.3428 (boost 0.0239, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 3.7526 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.2474, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3491 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3491, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.027 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4151 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4151, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2068 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0432, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3428 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.0928, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3428 (boost 0.0928, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2068 (deboost -0.0432, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "662139",
"player_name": "Daulton Varsho",
"position": "CF",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.192,
"predicted_3B": 0.02,
"predicted_AB": 3.85,
"predicted_AVG": 0.211,
"predicted_BB": 0.323,
"predicted_H": 0.81,
"predicted_HR": 0.1,
"predicted_OBP": 0.281,
"predicted_R": 0.404,
"predicted_RBI": 0.36,
"predicted_SLG": 0.318,
"predicted_SO": 0.778
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1607,
"predicted_3B": 0.0166,
"predicted_AB": 3.7526,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2019,
"predicted_BB": 0.3359,
"predicted_H": 0.7576,
"predicted_HBP": 0.013,
"predicted_HR": 0.1039,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2734,
"predicted_R": 0.398,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3347,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3189,
"predicted_SO": 0.8162
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.192,
"after": 0.1607,
"delta": -0.0313,
"percent_delta": -0.163,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.0166,
"delta": -0.0034,
"percent_delta": -0.17,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.85,
"after": 3.7526,
"delta": -0.0974,
"percent_delta": -0.0253,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.211,
"after": 0.2019,
"delta": -0.0091,
"percent_delta": -0.0431,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.323,
"after": 0.3359,
"delta": 0.0129,
"percent_delta": 0.0399,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.81,
"after": 0.7576,
"delta": -0.0524,
"percent_delta": -0.0647,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.1039,
"delta": 0.0039,
"percent_delta": 0.039,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.281,
"after": 0.2734,
"delta": -0.0076,
"percent_delta": -0.027,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.404,
"after": 0.398,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -0.0149,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.36,
"after": 0.3347,
"delta": -0.0253,
"percent_delta": -0.0703,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.318,
"after": 0.3189,
"delta": 0.0009,
"percent_delta": 0.0028,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.778,
"after": 0.8162,
"delta": 0.0382,
"percent_delta": 0.0491,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.85,
"after": 3.7526,
"delta": -0.0974,
"percent_delta": -0.0253,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 99
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1607,
"predicted_3B": 0.0166,
"predicted_AB": 3.7526,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2068,
"predicted_BB": 0.3384,
"predicted_H": 0.7759,
"predicted_HBP": 0.013,
"predicted_HR": 0.1055,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2724,
"predicted_R": 0.4151,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3491,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3428,
"predicted_SO": 0.8101
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1607,
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"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3428,
"delta": 0.0928,
"percent_delta": 0.3711,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2068,
"delta": -0.0432,
"percent_delta": -0.1729,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.192,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.808,
"percent_delta": 4.2083,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.02,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.85,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.15,
"percent_delta": 0.039,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.211,
"after": 0.2068,
"delta": -0.0042,
"percent_delta": -0.0199,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.323,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.323,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.81,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.19,
"percent_delta": 0.2346,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.281,
"after": 0.2724,
"delta": -0.0086,
"percent_delta": -0.0306,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.404,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.596,
"percent_delta": 1.4752,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.36,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.36,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.318,
"after": 0.3428,
"delta": 0.0248,
"percent_delta": 0.078,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.778,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.222,
"percent_delta": 1.5707,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.778,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.222,
"percent_delta": 1.5707,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.36,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.36,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "boosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.192 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.850 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.211 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.323 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.810 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.404 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.360 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.318 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.778 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.161 | -0.031 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.753 | -0.097 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.202 | -0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.336 | 0.013 |
| predicted_H | 0.758 | -0.052 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.104 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.273 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.398 | -0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.335 | -0.025 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.319 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.816 | 0.038 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.161 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.753 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.207 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.338 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.776 | 0.018 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.105 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.272 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.415 | 0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.349 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.343 | 0.024 |
| predicted_SO | 0.810 | -0.006 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.027
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.161 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.017 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.247 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.043 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.338 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.224 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.105 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.022 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.415 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.349 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.093 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.190 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.1053 | 0.1500 | 0.2632 | 0.1053 | 0.0526 | 0.1053 | 0.0526 | 0.2632 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 10.000 | 0.1176 | 0.2500 | 0.2059 | 0.1177 | 0.0294 | 0.0588 | 0.1765 | 0.2941 |
| season | 0.60 | 99 | - | 358.000 | 84.000 | 19.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 28.000 | 40.000 | 32.000 | 77.000 | 0.2346 | 0.3003 | 0.3659 | 0.2346 | 0.0223 | 0.0782 | 0.0894 | 0.2151 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1190 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6230 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1898 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3530 |
| predicted_H | 0.6880 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0130 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1090 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2634 |
| predicted_R | 0.3900 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3201 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8670 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1920 | 0.1190 | 0.1607 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0200 | 0.0120 | 0.0166 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8500 | 3.6230 | 3.7526 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2110 | 0.1898 | 0.2019 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3230 | 0.3530 | 0.3359 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8100 | 0.6880 | 0.7576 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0130 | 0.0130 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1000 | 0.1090 | 0.1039 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2810 | 0.2634 | 0.2734 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4040 | 0.3900 | 0.3980 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3600 | 0.3010 | 0.3347 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3180 | 0.3201 | 0.3189 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7780 | 0.8670 | 0.8162 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 7 |
| Season rows before report date | 7 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 99 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.235 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 662139 |
| playerID | 662139 |
| playerName | Daulton Varsho |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.298 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.294 |
| sl_xba | 0.237 |
| sl_xslg | 0.362 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.158 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.175 | 0.000 | -0.175 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.842 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.942 | 0.000 | 0.058 | 4.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.313 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.241 | - | 0.259 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.141 | 0.000 | -0.141 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.019 | 0.000 | -0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.640 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.951 | 0.000 | 1.049 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.117 | 0.000 | 0.883 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.340 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.268 | - | 0.232 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.439 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.447 | 0.000 | 0.553 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.300 | 3.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.485 | 0.000 | 2.515 | 3.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.383 | 1.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.374 | - | 0.876 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.632 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.636 | 0.000 | 0.364 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.3000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.7000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_2B: 0.1580 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1580, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | predicted_H: 0.6400 -> 0.7799 (boost 0.1399, better) | predicted_AB: 3.8420 -> 3.7900 (deboost -0.0520, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2921 -> 0.2108 (deboost -0.0813, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.6165 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3835, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.3850 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3850, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.023 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4270 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4270, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2108 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0392, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3156 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.0656, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 3.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3156 (boost 0.0656, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2108 (deboost -0.0392, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "673237",
"player_name": "Yainer Diaz",
"position": "C",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.158,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.842,
"predicted_AVG": 0.313,
"predicted_BB": 0.14,
"predicted_H": 0.64,
"predicted_HR": 0.06,
"predicted_OBP": 0.34,
"predicted_R": 0.439,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3,
"predicted_SLG": 0.383,
"predicted_SO": 0.632
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1343,
"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 3.79,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2921,
"predicted_BB": 0.1483,
"predicted_H": 0.7799,
"predicted_HBP": 0.013,
"predicted_HR": 0.0858,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3212,
"predicted_R": 0.4094,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3691,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3856,
"predicted_SO": 0.6212
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.158,
"after": 0.1343,
"delta": -0.0237,
"percent_delta": -0.15,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0008,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.842,
"after": 3.79,
"delta": -0.052,
"percent_delta": -0.0135,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.313,
"after": 0.2921,
"delta": -0.0209,
"percent_delta": -0.0668,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.1483,
"delta": 0.0083,
"percent_delta": 0.0593,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.64,
"after": 0.7799,
"delta": 0.1399,
"percent_delta": 0.2186,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.06,
"after": 0.0858,
"delta": 0.0258,
"percent_delta": 0.43,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.3212,
"delta": -0.0188,
"percent_delta": -0.0553,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.439,
"after": 0.4094,
"delta": -0.0296,
"percent_delta": -0.0674,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2407,
"delta": -0.0093,
"percent_delta": -0.0372,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3156,
"delta": 0.0656,
"percent_delta": 0.2623,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3156,
"delta": 0.0656,
"percent_delta": 0.2623,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2108,
"delta": -0.0392,
"percent_delta": -0.157,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.158,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.158,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.842,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.158,
"percent_delta": 0.0411,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.313,
"after": 0.2108,
"delta": -0.1022,
"percent_delta": -0.3265,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.14,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.64,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.36,
"percent_delta": 2.125,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.06,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.94,
"percent_delta": 15.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.2407,
"delta": -0.0993,
"percent_delta": -0.2921,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.439,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.561,
"percent_delta": 1.2779,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.7,
"percent_delta": 9.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.383,
"after": 0.3156,
"delta": -0.0674,
"percent_delta": -0.176,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.632,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.368,
"percent_delta": 0.5823,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.7,
"percent_delta": 9.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.158,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.158,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.158 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.842 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.313 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.640 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.340 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.439 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.300 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.383 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.632 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.134 | -0.024 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.790 | -0.052 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.292 | -0.021 |
| predicted_BB | 0.148 | 0.008 |
| predicted_H | 0.780 | 0.140 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.086 | 0.026 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.321 | -0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.409 | -0.030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.369 | 0.069 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.386 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.621 | -0.011 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.134 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.790 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.211 | -0.081 |
| predicted_BB | 0.149 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.799 | 0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.087 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.241 | -0.080 |
| predicted_R | 0.427 | 0.018 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.385 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.316 | -0.070 |
| predicted_SO | 0.617 | -0.005 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.023
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.134 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.210 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.039 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.149 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.201 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.087 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | 0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.427 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.385 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.066 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.383 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 3.000 | 3.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.1875 | 0.2353 | 0.1875 | 0.1875 | 0.0000 | 0.1250 | 0.0625 | 0.1250 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 14.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.3684 | 0.3846 | 0.5263 | 0.3684 | 0.0526 | 0.1316 | 0.0263 | 0.1579 |
| season | 0.60 | 57 | - | 219.000 | 56.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 8.000 | 27.000 | 25.000 | 8.000 | 36.000 | 0.2557 | 0.2826 | 0.4064 | 0.2557 | 0.0365 | 0.1233 | 0.0365 | 0.1644 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1010 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7170 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2627 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1600 |
| predicted_H | 0.9760 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0130 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1220 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2949 |
| predicted_R | 0.3680 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4660 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3892 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6060 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1580 | 0.1010 | 0.1343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0020 | 0.0008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8420 | 3.7170 | 3.7900 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3130 | 0.2627 | 0.2921 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1400 | 0.1600 | 0.1483 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6400 | 0.9760 | 0.7799 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0130 | 0.0130 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0600 | 0.1220 | 0.0858 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3400 | 0.2949 | 0.3212 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4390 | 0.3680 | 0.4094 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3000 | 0.4660 | 0.3691 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3830 | 0.3892 | 0.3856 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6320 | 0.6060 | 0.6212 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 206 |
| Season rows before report date | 206 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 57 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 3 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.256 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 2 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | short |
| mlbID | 673237 |
| playerID | 673237 |
| playerName | Yainer Diaz |
| pos | C |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 15.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.297 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.304 |
| sl_xba | 0.267 |
| sl_xslg | 0.403 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 6.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 57.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_BB | 2.909 | 2.000 | 0.091 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 2.091 | 3.000 | -0.091 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_H | 3.727 | 3.000 | -0.727 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.200 | 5.200 | 5.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.164 | 6.000 | 0.036 | -0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 5.727 | 8.000 | -3.727 | -6.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 5.6667 -> 5.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 5.6667 -> 5.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "686613",
"player_name": "Hunter Brown",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.6667,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 29.100 | 12.000 | 18.000 | 15.000 | 28.000 | 3.000 | 3.6818 | 1.1250 | 0.4091 | 0.6136 | 0.5114 | 0.9546 | 0.1023 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 54.000 | 23.000 | 37.000 | 28.000 | 54.000 | 7.000 | 3.8333 | 1.2037 | 0.4259 | 0.6852 | 0.5185 | 1.0000 | 0.1296 |
| season | 0.20 | 11 | 58.200 | 23.000 | 41.000 | 32.000 | 63.000 | 7.000 | 3.5284 | 1.2443 | 0.3921 | 0.6989 | 0.5454 | 1.0739 | 0.1193 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.6550 |
| predicted_ER | 2.4760 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.9487 |
| predicted_H | 4.2600 |
| predicted_HR | 0.7090 |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 5.5490 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2253 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.0000 | 2.6550 | 2.8213 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 2.0000 | 2.4760 | 2.2466 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.9487 | 3.9487 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 3.0000 | 4.2600 | 3.6526 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.7090 | 0.3672 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 5.5490 | 3.8383 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2253 | 1.2253 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 11 |
| Season rows before report date | 11 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 11 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.2 |
| H | 3 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 3 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 23 |
| Pitches | 104 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 2 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 23 |
| Pitching_ER | 3 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.53 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 10 |
| Pitching_H | 3 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 6.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 93 |
| Pitching_R | 3 |
| Pitching_SO | 8 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 54 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260805_TOR@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 686613 |
| playerID | 686613 |
| playerName | Hunter Brown |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-08-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.293 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.293 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 26.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 73.988886712 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.441215753 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.667 | 1.000 | 0.333 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.444 | 0.000 | -0.444 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.644 | 0.000 | -0.644 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.840 | 1.100 | 0.160 | -0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.222 | 2.000 | -1.222 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "650556",
"player_name": "Bryan Abreu",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.100 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.3750 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.3750 | 1.5000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 15.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.7000 | 0.0000 | 0.3000 | 0.4000 | 1.5000 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 44 | 42.000 | 20.000 | 27.000 | 30.000 | 55.000 | 7.000 | 4.2857 | 1.3571 | 0.4762 | 0.6429 | 0.7143 | 1.3095 | 0.1667 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4170 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2460 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.2114 |
| predicted_H | 0.5090 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0760 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2740 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.9268 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.4170 | 0.7130 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2460 | 0.1211 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.2114 | 2.2114 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.5090 | 0.2506 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0760 | 0.0374 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.2740 | 0.6273 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.9268 | 0.9268 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 45 |
| Season rows before report date | 45 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 44 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 18 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 5 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 4.29 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 24 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 14 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | W |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260807_HOU@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 650556 |
| playerID | 650556 |
| playerName | Bryan Abreu |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-08-07 |
| sl_k_percent | 30.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 16.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.329 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.316 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 32.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 40.8 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 82.798312222 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.636925 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.357 | 0.000 | -0.357 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.107 | 0.000 | -0.107 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 0.357 | 0.000 | 1.643 | 2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.939 | 2.000 | 0.161 | -0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.357 | 2.000 | -1.357 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "623352",
"player_name": "Josh Hader",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.8333 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.200 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 0.8438 | 0.5625 | 0.0938 | 0.3750 | 0.1875 | 0.9375 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 27 | 27.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 10.000 | 38.000 | 1.000 | 0.6667 | 0.6296 | 0.0741 | 0.2593 | 0.3704 | 1.4074 | 0.0370 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2650 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2850 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.3799 |
| predicted_H | 0.6070 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0810 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0480 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.8085 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.2650 | 0.1184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2850 | 0.1274 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.3799 | 2.3799 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 0.6070 | 1.3775 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0810 | 0.0362 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.0480 | 0.4683 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.8085 | 0.8085 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 28 |
| Season rows before report date | 28 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 27 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 6 |
| Pitches | 23 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 6 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 1.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 3 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 2.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 22 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 16 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | W |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 623352 |
| playerID | 623352 |
| playerName | Josh Hader |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 37.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.183 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.189 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 26.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 38.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 73.378042 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 91.792583878 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.207 | 0.000 | -0.207 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.241 | 0.000 | -0.241 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.672 | 1.000 | -0.672 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.869 | 1.000 | 0.131 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.034 | 1.000 | -0.034 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "595345",
"player_name": "Steven Okert",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 1.8000 | 1.2000 | 0.2000 | 1.2000 | 0.0000 | 1.2000 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.200 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 0.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 1.8621 | 1.1379 | 0.2069 | 1.1379 | 0.0000 | 1.0345 | 0.1035 |
| season | 0.20 | 58 | 58.100 | 14.000 | 39.000 | 12.000 | 60.000 | 6.000 | 2.1600 | 0.8743 | 0.2400 | 0.6686 | 0.2057 | 1.0286 | 0.1029 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.1370 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2970 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.6717 |
| predicted_H | 1.0420 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1470 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0630 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1791 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.1370 | 0.0717 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2970 | 0.1554 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.6717 | 2.6717 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 1.0420 | 0.5452 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1470 | 0.0769 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.0630 | 1.0330 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1791 | 1.1791 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 58 |
| Season rows before report date | 58 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 58 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 17 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.16 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 16 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 12 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 595345 |
| playerID | 595345 |
| playerName | Steven Okert |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.251 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.264 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.8 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.199354507 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.153118803 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Carson Whisenhunt |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.4171 |
| ESPN Rank | 730 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.1243 |
| Avg Velo | 87.6919 |
| Avg Spin | 2205.3122 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 4.1000 |
| Pre ER | 5 |
| Pre H | 7 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 6 |
| Season ERA | 7.2537 |
| Season WHIP | 1.8358 |
| Role Avg IP | 4.4670 |
| Recent Avg IP | 4.4670 |
| Last Start IP | 3.1000 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "SF",
"games": 130,
"wins": 55,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.4231,
"runs_scored": 549.0,
"runs_allowed": 593.0,
"run_differential": -44.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.3385,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2231,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5615,
"offense_index": 0.9402,
"defense_index": 0.9847,
"current_streak": "L3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
"run_differential": -22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2118
},
"opponent": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 128,
"wins": 64,
"losses": 64,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 587.0,
"runs_allowed": 612.0,
"run_differential": -25.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1953,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5859,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7812,
"offense_index": 1.021,
"defense_index": 0.9394,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
"run_differential": 16.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0111
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.2229,
"offense_edge": -0.0598,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.021,
"defense_strength": -0.0153,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0606,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9898,
"run_prevention": 1.016,
"strikeout": 0.9916
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "687931",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "687931",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 46.0,
"k_percent": 19.0,
"bb_percent": 14.3,
"woba": 0.388,
"xwoba": 0.387,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 48.6,
"avg_best_speed": 79.6072,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.9987,
"whiff_percent": 30.9,
"swing_percent": 48.5
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -1.5468,
"command_and_miss": -0.2057,
"regression_edge": 0.0286,
"xwoba_edge": -2.1714,
"barrel_edge": -0.6444,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.5571,
"whiff_edge": 0.7714,
"bb_edge": -1.35,
"pitch_design_score": -0.1243
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "687931",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 86,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 86,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 87.69189993238675,
"release_spin_rate": 2205.3122379986476,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 86,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"components": {
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},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
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"espn_rank": {
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"player_name": "Carson Whisenhunt",
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"metrics": {
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"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 22.1,
"ip_rank": 454,
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"k_per_9_value": 8.059701,
"k_per_9_rank": 26,
"whip_value": 1.8358,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": -0.53,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 1.0159,
"adjusted": 4
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 1.0159,
"adjusted": 5
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"adjusted": 3
},
"predicted_HR": {
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},
"predicted_SO": {
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}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
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"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
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"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
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"OPS": 0,
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"hot_streak": false,
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},
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},
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},
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"latest_game_date": "2026-08-05T00:00:00"
}{
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"pitcher_id": "687931",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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"primary_pitch": {
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},
"pitch_mix": [
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},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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},
"effective_weights": {
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},
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},
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},
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},
"rates": {
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},
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},
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},
"season": {
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},
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}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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},
"predicted_ER": {
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},
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},
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}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | JT Brubaker |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.2608 |
| ESPN Rank | 235 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.0464 |
| Avg Velo | 90.7407 |
| Avg Spin | 2315.3015 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 3.3952 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2036 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "SF",
"games": 130,
"wins": 55,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.4231,
"runs_scored": 549.0,
"runs_allowed": 593.0,
"run_differential": -44.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.3385,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2231,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5615,
"offense_index": 0.9402,
"defense_index": 0.9847,
"current_streak": "L3",
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"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
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"run_differential": -22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2118
},
"opponent": {
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"wins": 64,
"losses": 64,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 587.0,
"runs_allowed": 612.0,
"run_differential": -25.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1953,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5859,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7812,
"offense_index": 1.021,
"defense_index": 0.9394,
"current_streak": "W1",
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"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
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"run_differential": 16.0
},
"available": true,
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},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": -0.0598,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.021,
"defense_strength": -0.0153,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0606,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9898,
"run_prevention": 1.016,
"strikeout": 0.9916
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "664141",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "664141",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 16.6,
"bb_percent": 9.9,
"woba": 0.282,
"xwoba": 0.333,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 35.6,
"avg_best_speed": 77.1248,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.4002,
"whiff_percent": 21.1,
"swing_percent": 44.6
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.0699,
"command_and_miss": -0.63,
"regression_edge": -1.4571,
"xwoba_edge": -0.6286,
"barrel_edge": 0.3556,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.3,
"whiff_edge": -0.6286,
"bb_edge": -0.25,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0464
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "664141",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 38,
"primary_pitch": {
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},
"pitch_mix": [
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
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"sample_weight": 0.756,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0222,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9568,
"walk_factor": 1.0151,
"homer_factor": 0.9837,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.051,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "664141",
"espn_id": 41460,
"player_name": "JT Brubaker",
"team": "SF",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 235,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
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"gp_value": 36.0,
"gp_rank": 145,
"gs_value": 1.0,
"gs_rank": 279,
"qs_value": 0.0,
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"era_value": 3.3952,
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"w_value": 0.0,
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"l_value": 0.0,
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"sv_value": 1.0,
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"ip_value": 55.2,
"ip_rank": 194,
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"h_rank": 225,
"er_value": 21.0,
"er_rank": 243,
"hr_value": 5.0,
"hr_rank": 273,
"bb_value": 23.0,
"bb_rank": 186,
"k_value": 37.0,
"k_rank": 316,
"k_per_9_value": 5.982036,
"k_per_9_rank": 43,
"whip_value": 1.2035,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.5,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0168,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 1.0168,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 1.0114,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.9877,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 0.9673,
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}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
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"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"K9": 4.959183673469388,
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},
"fielding": {
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},
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"latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "664141",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 38,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
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"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 38,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.74073499192082,
"release_spin_rate": 2315.3015200419914,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 90.7407,
"release_spin_rate": 2315.3015,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.0464,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.3316,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 11.133,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6901,
"prior_weight": 0.3099
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "664141",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 36,
"reference_playing_time": 1.333,
"windows": {
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"totals": {
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"ER": 6.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 8.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 2.0,
"HR": 1.0,
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"Pitches": 128.0
},
"per_game": {
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"R": 1.2,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.7368,
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"H_per_IP": 1.26316,
"BB_per_IP": 0.47368,
"SO_per_IP": 0.31579,
"HR_per_IP": 0.15789
}
},
"last_10": {
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"totals": {
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"ER": 9.0,
"R": 9.0,
"H": 14.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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"H_per_IP": 0.85714,
"BB_per_IP": 0.30612,
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"HR_per_IP": 0.18367
}
},
"season": {
"games": 36,
"totals": {
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"ER": 21.0,
"R": 23.0,
"H": 44.0,
"BB": 23.0,
"SO": 37.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 227.0,
"Pitches": 909.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.2,
"ER": 0.5833,
"R": 0.6389,
"H": 1.2222,
"BB": 0.6389,
"SO": 1.0278,
"HR": 0.1389,
"BF": 6.3056,
"Pitches": 25.25
},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 0.37725,
"H_per_IP": 0.79042,
"BB_per_IP": 0.41317,
"SO_per_IP": 0.66467,
"HR_per_IP": 0.08982
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_ER": 0.925,
"predicted_H": 1.474,
"predicted_BB": 0.569,
"predicted_SO": 0.905,
"predicted_HR": 0.222,
"predicted_ERA": 5.7047,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.3995
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4809,
"form_weight": 0.5191,
"form_reliability": 0.6901,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 11.133,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6901,
"prior_weight": 0.3099
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.1,
"form": 1.1,
"final": 1.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.925,
"final": 0.9611,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.474,
"final": 1.246,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.569,
"final": 0.2953,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.905,
"final": 0.9507,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.222,
"final": 0.5962,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 5.7047,
"final": 5.7047,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.3995,
"final": 1.3995,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Dylan Smith |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0434 |
| ESPN Rank | 231 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 3.0857 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2857 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "SF",
"games": 130,
"wins": 55,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.4231,
"runs_scored": 549.0,
"runs_allowed": 593.0,
"run_differential": -44.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.3385,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2231,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5615,
"offense_index": 0.9402,
"defense_index": 0.9847,
"current_streak": "L3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
"run_differential": -22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2118
},
"opponent": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 128,
"wins": 64,
"losses": 64,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 587.0,
"runs_allowed": 612.0,
"run_differential": -25.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1953,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5859,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7812,
"offense_index": 1.021,
"defense_index": 0.9394,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
"run_differential": 16.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0111
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": -0.0598,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.021,
"defense_strength": -0.0153,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0606,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9898,
"run_prevention": 1.016,
"strikeout": 0.9916
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "681916",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "681916",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 58.0,
"k_percent": 27.6,
"bb_percent": 11.2,
"woba": 0.283,
"xwoba": 0.302,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 41.4,
"avg_best_speed": 77.9136,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.98,
"whiff_percent": 27.3,
"swing_percent": 49.5
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.1196,
"command_and_miss": 0.3221,
"regression_edge": -0.5429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.2571,
"barrel_edge": -0.3333,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.5286,
"whiff_edge": 0.2571,
"bb_edge": -0.575,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "681916",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.0434,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9963,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0185,
"walk_factor": 1.0207,
"homer_factor": 1.018,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "681916",
"espn_id": 4414123,
"player_name": "Dylan Smith",
"team": "SF",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 231,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 231,
"gp_value": 26.0,
"gp_rank": 212,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 3.0857,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 0.0,
"w_rank": 476,
"l_value": 4.0,
"l_rank": 138,
"sv_value": 2.0,
"sv_rank": 75,
"hld_value": 6.0,
"hld_rank": 124,
"ip_value": 23.1,
"ip_rank": 441,
"h_value": 18.0,
"h_rank": 486,
"er_value": 8.0,
"er_rank": 526,
"hr_value": 2.0,
"hr_rank": 465,
"bb_value": 12.0,
"bb_rank": 389,
"k_value": 27.0,
"k_rank": 399,
"k_per_9_value": 10.414287,
"k_per_9_rank": 24,
"whip_value": 1.2857,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.54,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9983,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9983,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 1.0093,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 1.0081,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 1.0083,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 3,
"H": 8,
"BB": 6,
"SO": 13,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 2.8928571428571432,
"WHIP": 1.5000000000000002,
"K9": 12.535714285714286,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "681916",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 4.666,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.4827,
"prior_weight": 0.5173
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "681916",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 26,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
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"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 4.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 20.0,
"Pitches": 78.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.0,
"Pitches": 15.6
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
"H_per_IP": 0.85714,
"BB_per_IP": 0.64286,
"SO_per_IP": 1.07143,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
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"R": 3.0,
"H": 8.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 13.0,
"HR": 0.0,
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"Pitches": 170.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.3,
"R": 0.3,
"H": 0.8,
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"SO": 1.3,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.1,
"Pitches": 17.0
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.32143,
"H_per_IP": 0.85714,
"BB_per_IP": 0.64286,
"SO_per_IP": 1.39286,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 26,
"totals": {
"IP": 23.1,
"ER": 8.0,
"R": 9.0,
"H": 18.0,
"BB": 12.0,
"SO": 27.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 102.0,
"Pitches": 407.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.3077,
"R": 0.3462,
"H": 0.6923,
"BB": 0.4615,
"SO": 1.0385,
"HR": 0.0769,
"BF": 3.9231,
"Pitches": 15.6538
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.2857,
"ER_per_IP": 0.34286,
"H_per_IP": 0.77143,
"BB_per_IP": 0.51429,
"SO_per_IP": 1.15714,
"HR_per_IP": 0.08571
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.438,
"predicted_H": 0.909,
"predicted_BB": 0.484,
"predicted_SO": 1.076,
"predicted_HR": 0.085,
"predicted_ERA": 3.9455,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.3929
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5686,
"form_weight": 0.4314,
"form_reliability": 0.4827,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 4.666,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.4827,
"prior_weight": 0.5173
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.438,
"final": 0.7575,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.909,
"final": 0.9607,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.484,
"final": 0.7774,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.076,
"final": 1.0328,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.085,
"final": 0.0367,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.9455,
"final": 3.9455,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.3929,
"final": 1.3929,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Keaton Winn |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0976 |
| ESPN Rank | 192 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.8770 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1557 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "SF",
"games": 130,
"wins": 55,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.4231,
"runs_scored": 549.0,
"runs_allowed": 593.0,
"run_differential": -44.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.3385,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2231,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5615,
"offense_index": 0.9402,
"defense_index": 0.9847,
"current_streak": "L3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
"run_differential": -22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2118
},
"opponent": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 128,
"wins": 64,
"losses": 64,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 587.0,
"runs_allowed": 612.0,
"run_differential": -25.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1953,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5859,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7812,
"offense_index": 1.021,
"defense_index": 0.9394,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
"run_differential": 16.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0111
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.2229,
"offense_edge": -0.0598,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.021,
"defense_strength": -0.0153,
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}{
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}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Sam Hentges |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0850 |
| ESPN Rank | 216 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 2.6024 |
| Season WHIP | 1.5542 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
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"role": "pitcher",
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"wins": 55,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.4231,
"runs_scored": 549.0,
"runs_allowed": 593.0,
"run_differential": -44.0,
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"avg_runs_scored": 4.2231,
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"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
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},
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},
"opponent": {
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"wins": 64,
"losses": 64,
"win_pct": 0.5,
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"runs_allowed": 612.0,
"run_differential": -25.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1953,
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"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7812,
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"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
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"profile": {
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"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
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"command_and_miss": -0.0636,
"regression_edge": 0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.1429,
"barrel_edge": 0.9333,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.9,
"whiff_edge": 0.4714,
"bb_edge": -1.85,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
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"espn_id": 41225,
"player_name": "Sam Hentges",
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"metrics": {
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"gp_value": 34.0,
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"k_rank": 369,
"k_per_9_value": 10.084337,
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"whip_value": 1.5903,
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"war_value": 0.62,
"war_rank": null
},
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},
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"ERA": 4.0,
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"K9": 9.0,
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"report_date": "20260811",
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},
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},
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}
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},
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}
}
},
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.417,
"final": 0.1874,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.023,
"final": 0.4598,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.071,
"final": 0.0319,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.5376,
"final": 3.5376,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.3923,
"final": 1.3923,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jason Foley |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0125 |
| ESPN Rank | 595 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 0.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 5.6250 |
| Season WHIP | 1.5000 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "SF",
"games": 130,
"wins": 55,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.4231,
"runs_scored": 549.0,
"runs_allowed": 593.0,
"run_differential": -44.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.3385,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2231,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5615,
"offense_index": 0.9402,
"defense_index": 0.9847,
"current_streak": "L3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
"run_differential": -22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2118
},
"opponent": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 128,
"wins": 64,
"losses": 64,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 587.0,
"runs_allowed": 612.0,
"run_differential": -25.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1953,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5859,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7812,
"offense_index": 1.021,
"defense_index": 0.9394,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
"run_differential": 16.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0111
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.2229,
"offense_edge": -0.0598,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.021,
"defense_strength": -0.0153,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0606,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9898,
"run_prevention": 1.016,
"strikeout": 0.9916
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "671345",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "671345",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 6.0,
"k_percent": 17.2,
"bb_percent": 6.9,
"woba": 0.309,
"xwoba": 0.296,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 31.8,
"avg_best_speed": 72.1618,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.3896,
"whiff_percent": 16.7,
"swing_percent": 44.0
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.2903,
"command_and_miss": -0.6614,
"regression_edge": 0.3714,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
"barrel_edge": -0.4444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.8429,
"whiff_edge": -1.2571,
"bb_edge": 0.5,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "671345",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.0125,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9989,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9645,
"walk_factor": 0.982,
"homer_factor": 0.995,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "671345",
"espn_id": 42698,
"player_name": "Jason Foley",
"team": "SF",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 595,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 595,
"gp_value": 8.0,
"gp_rank": 516,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 5.625,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 0.0,
"w_rank": 476,
"l_value": 1.0,
"l_rank": 381,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 8.0,
"ip_rank": 600,
"h_value": 8.0,
"h_rank": 606,
"er_value": 5.0,
"er_rank": 596,
"hr_value": 1.0,
"hr_rank": 563,
"bb_value": 4.0,
"bb_rank": 591,
"k_value": 5.0,
"k_rank": 625,
"k_per_9_value": 5.625,
"k_per_9_rank": 28,
"whip_value": 1.5,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": -0.15,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9995,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9995,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9919,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9978,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.984,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 8.0,
"ER": 5,
"H": 8,
"BB": 4,
"SO": 5,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 5.625,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"K9": 5.625,
"HR9": 1.125,
"games_pitched": 8,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 8,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 8,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "671345",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.6818181818181818,
"last_10": 0.3181818181818182
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 1.6,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.2424,
"prior_weight": 0.7576
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "671345",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 8,
"reference_playing_time": 0.1,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.0,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 4.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 25.0,
"Pitches": 89.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.6,
"R": 0.8,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.8,
"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 5.0,
"Pitches": 17.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.4,
"WHIP": 2.0,
"ER_per_IP": 0.6,
"H_per_IP": 1.2,
"BB_per_IP": 0.8,
"SO_per_IP": 0.6,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 8,
"totals": {
"IP": 8.0,
"ER": 5.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 8.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 36.0,
"Pitches": 128.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.625,
"R": 0.75,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.5,
"SO": 0.625,
"HR": 0.125,
"BF": 4.5,
"Pitches": 16.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.625,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.625,
"H_per_IP": 1.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.5,
"SO_per_IP": 0.625,
"HR_per_IP": 0.125
}
},
"season": {
"games": 8,
"totals": {
"IP": 8.0,
"ER": 5.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 8.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 36.0,
"Pitches": 128.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.625,
"R": 0.75,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.5,
"SO": 0.625,
"HR": 0.125,
"BF": 4.5,
"Pitches": 16.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.625,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.625,
"H_per_IP": 1.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.5,
"SO_per_IP": 0.625,
"HR_per_IP": 0.125
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 0.1,
"predicted_ER": 0.26,
"predicted_H": 0.501,
"predicted_BB": 0.22,
"predicted_SO": 0.432,
"predicted_HR": 0.06,
"predicted_ERA": 4.7256,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.4561
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.6701,
"form_weight": 0.3299,
"form_reliability": 0.2424,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 1.6,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.2424,
"prior_weight": 0.7576
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.1,
"form": 0.1,
"final": 0.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.26,
"final": 0.0858,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.501,
"final": 0.1653,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.22,
"final": 0.7427,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.432,
"final": 0.1425,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.06,
"final": 0.0198,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.7256,
"final": 4.7256,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.4561,
"final": 1.4561,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.229 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.266 | 0.000 | -0.266 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.011 | 0.000 | -0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.746 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.834 | 3.000 | 0.166 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.252 | 0.000 | -0.252 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.415 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.423 | 1.000 | -0.423 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.932 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.966 | 0.000 | -0.966 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.195 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.190 | 0.000 | -0.190 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.325 | 0.250 | -0.325 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.508 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.539 | 0.000 | -0.539 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.534 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.539 | 0.000 | -0.539 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.471 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.476 | 0.000 | -0.476 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.119 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.174 | 2.000 | -0.174 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.7460 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.2540, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.9320 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9320, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4710 -> 0.4624 (deboost -0.0086, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4624 -> 0.4548 (deboost -0.0076, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.4814 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5186, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3979 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3979, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.051 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4543 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4543, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2445 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0055, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4548 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.2048, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4548 (boost 0.2048, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2445 (deboost -0.0055, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "646240",
"player_name": "Rafael Devers",
"position": "DH",
"team": "SF",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.229,
"predicted_3B": 0.008,
"predicted_AB": 3.746,
"predicted_AVG": 0.249,
"predicted_BB": 0.415,
"predicted_H": 0.932,
"predicted_HR": 0.195,
"predicted_OBP": 0.324,
"predicted_R": 0.508,
"predicted_RBI": 0.534,
"predicted_SLG": 0.471,
"predicted_SO": 1.119
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1887,
"predicted_3B": 0.0071,
"predicted_AB": 3.707,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2502,
"predicted_BB": 0.4016,
"predicted_H": 0.9268,
"predicted_HBP": 0.006,
"predicted_HR": 0.1946,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3233,
"predicted_R": 0.4733,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5015,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4624,
"predicted_SO": 1.0752
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.229,
"after": 0.1887,
"delta": -0.0403,
"percent_delta": -0.176,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.0071,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.1125,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.746,
"after": 3.707,
"delta": -0.039,
"percent_delta": -0.0104,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.249,
"after": 0.2502,
"delta": 0.0012,
"percent_delta": 0.0048,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.415,
"after": 0.4016,
"delta": -0.0134,
"percent_delta": -0.0323,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.932,
"after": 0.9268,
"delta": -0.0052,
"percent_delta": -0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.195,
"after": 0.1946,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0021,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.3233,
"delta": -0.0007,
"percent_delta": -0.0022,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.508,
"after": 0.4733,
"delta": -0.0347,
"percent_delta": -0.0683,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.534,
"after": 0.5015,
"delta": -0.0325,
"percent_delta": -0.0609,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.471,
"after": 0.4624,
"delta": -0.0086,
"percent_delta": -0.0183,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.119,
"after": 1.0752,
"delta": -0.0438,
"percent_delta": -0.0391,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3178,
"delta": 0.0678,
"percent_delta": 0.271,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4548,
"delta": 0.2048,
"percent_delta": 0.8192,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4548,
"delta": 0.2048,
"percent_delta": 0.8192,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2445,
"delta": -0.0055,
"percent_delta": -0.0219,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.229,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.229,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.746,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.254,
"percent_delta": 0.0678,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.249,
"after": 0.2445,
"delta": -0.0045,
"percent_delta": -0.0181,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.415,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.415,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.932,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.932,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.195,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.195,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.3178,
"delta": -0.0062,
"percent_delta": -0.0191,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.508,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.508,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.534,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.534,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.471,
"after": 0.4548,
"delta": -0.0162,
"percent_delta": -0.0344,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.119,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.119,
"percent_delta": -0.1063,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.746,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.254,
"percent_delta": 0.0678,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.932,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.932,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.229 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.746 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.415 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.932 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.195 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.508 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.534 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.471 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.119 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.189 | -0.040 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.707 | -0.039 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.402 | -0.013 |
| predicted_H | 0.927 | -0.005 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.195 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.323 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.473 | -0.035 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.501 | -0.033 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.462 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 1.075 | -0.044 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.189 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.707 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.398 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.906 | -0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.192 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.454 | -0.019 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.481 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.455 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 1.085 | 0.010 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.051
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.189 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.293 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.398 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.094 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.192 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.068 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.454 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.519 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.205 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.085 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.2778 | 0.3158 | 0.4444 | 0.2778 | 0.0556 | 0.1111 | 0.0556 | 0.2778 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 8.000 | 0.2353 | 0.3333 | 0.4118 | 0.2353 | 0.0588 | 0.0882 | 0.1471 | 0.2353 |
| season | 0.60 | 118 | - | 442.000 | 110.000 | 27.000 | 1.000 | 23.000 | 63.000 | 60.000 | 49.000 | 132.000 | 0.2489 | 0.3226 | 0.4706 | 0.2489 | 0.0520 | 0.1425 | 0.1109 | 0.2986 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1360 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6560 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2517 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3840 |
| predicted_H | 0.9200 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0060 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1940 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3224 |
| predicted_R | 0.4280 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4590 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4511 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0180 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2290 | 0.1360 | 0.1887 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0080 | 0.0060 | 0.0071 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7460 | 3.6560 | 3.7070 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2490 | 0.2517 | 0.2502 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4150 | 0.3840 | 0.4016 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9320 | 0.9200 | 0.9268 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0060 | 0.0060 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1950 | 0.1940 | 0.1946 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3240 | 0.3224 | 0.3233 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5080 | 0.4280 | 0.4733 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5340 | 0.4590 | 0.5015 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4710 | 0.4511 | 0.4624 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1190 | 1.0180 | 1.0752 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 447 |
| Season rows before report date | 447 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 118 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.249 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 646240 |
| playerID | 646240 |
| playerName | Rafael Devers |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | SF |
| teamID | 24 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.341 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.326 |
| sl_xba | 0.234 |
| sl_xslg | 0.446 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 51.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.197 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.219 | 1.000 | -0.219 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.513 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.602 | 4.000 | -0.602 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.273 | 0.250 | -0.273 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.513 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.535 | 0.000 | 0.465 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.868 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.984 | 1.000 | -0.984 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.145 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.191 | 0.000 | -0.191 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.343 | 0.250 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.366 | 0.250 | -0.116 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.487 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.555 | 1.000 | -0.555 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.368 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.418 | 0.000 | -0.418 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.427 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.493 | 0.500 | -0.493 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 1.079 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.059 | 0.000 | -0.059 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 10 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.5130 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4870, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8680 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8680, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_AB: 3.5130 -> 3.5838 (boost 0.0708, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4270 -> 0.3961 (deboost -0.0309, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3961 -> 0.3886 (deboost -0.0075, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.4688 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5312, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3207 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3207, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.034 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4284 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4284, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.3221 -> 0.4000 (boost 0.0779, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3886 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1386, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3886 (boost 0.1386, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.4000 -> 0.3221 (deboost -0.0779, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "805811",
"player_name": "Bryce Eldridge",
"position": "1B",
"team": "SF",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.197,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.513,
"predicted_AVG": 0.247,
"predicted_BB": 0.513,
"predicted_H": 0.868,
"predicted_HR": 0.145,
"predicted_OBP": 0.343,
"predicted_R": 0.487,
"predicted_RBI": 0.368,
"predicted_SLG": 0.427,
"predicted_SO": 1.079
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1898,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.5838,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2388,
"predicted_BB": 0.4731,
"predicted_H": 0.8553,
"predicted_HBP": 0.003,
"predicted_HR": 0.1234,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3272,
"predicted_R": 0.4463,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3341,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3961,
"predicted_SO": 1.068
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.197,
"after": 0.1898,
"delta": -0.0072,
"percent_delta": -0.0365,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.513,
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2334,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3221,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3886,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2334,
"delta": -0.0166,
"percent_delta": -0.0664,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.3221,
"delta": -0.0779,
"percent_delta": -0.1948,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3886,
"delta": 0.1386,
"percent_delta": 0.5545,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3886,
"delta": 0.1386,
"percent_delta": 0.5545,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.3221,
"delta": -0.0779,
"percent_delta": -0.1948,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.197,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.197,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.513,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.513,
"percent_delta": -0.146,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.247,
"after": 0.2334,
"delta": -0.0136,
"percent_delta": -0.0551,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.513,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.487,
"percent_delta": 0.9493,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.868,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.868,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.145,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.145,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.343,
"after": 0.3221,
"delta": -0.0209,
"percent_delta": -0.0609,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.487,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.487,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.368,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.368,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.427,
"after": 0.3886,
"delta": -0.0384,
"percent_delta": -0.0899,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.079,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.079,
"percent_delta": -0.0732,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 10,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.513,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.487,
"percent_delta": 0.9493,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.868,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.868,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.197 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.513 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.513 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.868 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.145 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.343 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.487 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.368 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.427 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.079 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.190 | -0.007 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.584 | 0.071 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.473 | -0.040 |
| predicted_H | 0.855 | -0.013 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.003 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.123 | -0.022 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.327 | -0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.446 | -0.041 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.334 | -0.034 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.396 | -0.031 |
| predicted_SO | 1.068 | -0.011 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.190 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.584 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.469 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.837 | -0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.122 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.428 | -0.018 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.321 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.389 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 1.078 | 0.010 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.034
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.190 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.416 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.017 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.531 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.163 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.122 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.400 | 0.078 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.428 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.321 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.139 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.078 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.1500 | 0.2273 | 0.2000 | 0.1500 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1000 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 0.2368 | 0.2750 | 0.2632 | 0.2368 | 0.0000 | 0.0526 | 0.0526 | 0.2895 |
| season | 0.60 | 76 | - | 267.000 | 66.000 | 15.000 | 0.000 | 11.000 | 28.000 | 37.000 | 39.000 | 82.000 | 0.2472 | 0.3420 | 0.4270 | 0.2472 | 0.0412 | 0.1049 | 0.1461 | 0.3071 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1800 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6800 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2277 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4190 |
| predicted_H | 0.8380 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0030 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0940 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3057 |
| predicted_R | 0.3910 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2880 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3542 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0530 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1970 | 0.1800 | 0.1898 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5130 | 3.6800 | 3.5838 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2470 | 0.2277 | 0.2388 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5130 | 0.4190 | 0.4731 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8680 | 0.8380 | 0.8553 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0030 | 0.0030 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1450 | 0.0940 | 0.1234 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3430 | 0.3057 | 0.3272 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4870 | 0.3910 | 0.4463 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3680 | 0.2880 | 0.3341 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4270 | 0.3542 | 0.3961 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0790 | 1.0530 | 1.0680 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 256 |
| Season rows before report date | 256 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 76 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.247 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 805811 |
| playerID | 805811 |
| playerName | Bryce Eldridge |
| pos | DH |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | SF |
| teamID | 24 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.338 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.345 |
| sl_xba | 0.245 |
| sl_xslg | 0.451 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 51.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.143 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.177 | 0.000 | -0.177 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.762 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.065 | 3.000 | -0.065 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.293 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.321 | 0.000 | -0.321 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.048 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.048 | 0.000 | 0.952 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.097 | 0.000 | -0.097 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.810 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.984 | 0.000 | -0.984 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.242 | 0.000 | -0.242 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.332 | 0.000 | -0.082 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.419 | 0.000 | -0.419 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.429 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.565 | 0.000 | -0.565 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.552 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.616 | 0.000 | -0.616 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.714 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.742 | 2.000 | 0.258 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.0480 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.9520, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8100 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8100, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 2.7620 -> 2.9728 (boost 0.2108, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.5520 -> 0.5279 (deboost -0.0241, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5279 -> 0.5161 (deboost -0.0118, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.7563 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2437, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4385 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4385, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.059 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3486 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3486, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2814 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0516, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.5161 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.1831, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.5161 (boost 0.1831, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2814 (deboost -0.0516, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "682674",
"player_name": "Victor Bericoto",
"position": "LF",
"team": "SF",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"predicted_RBI": 0.429,
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"predicted_SO": 0.714
},
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0018,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.01,
"predicted_HR": 0.1784,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.4568,
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
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"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
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"season": 21
}
},
{
"index": 3,
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"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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{
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},
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{
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"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2814,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.298,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5161,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2814,
"delta": -0.0516,
"percent_delta": -0.155,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.298,
"delta": -0.035,
"percent_delta": -0.105,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.5161,
"delta": 0.1831,
"percent_delta": 0.5498,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.5161,
"delta": 0.1831,
"percent_delta": 0.5498,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2814,
"delta": -0.0516,
"percent_delta": -0.155,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.143,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.143,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.762,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.238,
"percent_delta": 0.0862,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.293,
"after": 0.2814,
"delta": -0.0116,
"percent_delta": -0.0396,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.048,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.952,
"percent_delta": 19.8333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.81,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.81,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.19,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.298,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -0.023,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.333,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.429,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.429,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.552,
"after": 0.5161,
"delta": -0.0359,
"percent_delta": -0.065,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.714,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.286,
"percent_delta": 0.4006,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.048,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.952,
"percent_delta": 19.8333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.81,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.81,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.143 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.762 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.293 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.048 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.810 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.429 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.552 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.714 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | 0.023 |
| predicted_3B | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 2.973 | 0.211 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.288 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.071 | 0.023 |
| predicted_H | 0.855 | 0.045 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.178 | -0.012 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.363 | 0.030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.457 | 0.028 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.528 | -0.024 |
| predicted_SO | 0.750 | 0.036 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.973 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.281 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.071 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.837 | -0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.176 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.298 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.349 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.439 | -0.018 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.516 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 0.756 | 0.007 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.059
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.166 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.027 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.052 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.071 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.163 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.176 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.035 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.349 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.439 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.183 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.244 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 0.2632 | 0.2632 | 0.3684 | 0.2632 | 0.0000 | 0.1579 | 0.0000 | 0.2632 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 12.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 0.3333 | 0.3514 | 0.5833 | 0.3333 | 0.0556 | 0.1944 | 0.0278 | 0.2222 |
| season | 0.60 | 21 | - | 58.000 | 17.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 15.000 | 0.2931 | 0.3051 | 0.5517 | 0.2931 | 0.0690 | 0.1552 | 0.0172 | 0.2586 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2070 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0050 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3620 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2793 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1140 |
| predicted_H | 0.9390 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0100 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1570 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3059 |
| predicted_R | 0.4190 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5080 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4835 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8150 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1430 | 0.2070 | 0.1655 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0050 | 0.0018 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.7620 | 3.3620 | 2.9728 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2930 | 0.2793 | 0.2882 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.0480 | 0.1140 | 0.0712 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8100 | 0.9390 | 0.8553 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0100 | 0.0100 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1900 | 0.1570 | 0.1784 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3050 | 0.3059 | 0.3053 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3330 | 0.4190 | 0.3632 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4290 | 0.5080 | 0.4568 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5520 | 0.4835 | 0.5279 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7140 | 0.8150 | 0.7495 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 62 |
| Season rows before report date | 62 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 21 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.293 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260709_COL@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 682674 |
| playerID | 682674 |
| playerName | Victor Bericoto |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | SF |
| teamID | 24 |
| game_date | 2026-07-09 |
| game_pk | 823201.0 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 1.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.365 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.289 |
| sl_xba | 0.217 |
| sl_xslg | 0.457 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 14.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 46.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 8.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 56.3 |
| at_bat_number | 45.0 |
| ab_pitcher | 680767.0 |
| ab_pitcher_name | Vodnik, Victor |
| ab_home_team | SF |
| ab_away_team | COL |
| ab_game_type | R |
| ab_stand | R |
| ab_p_throws | R |
| ab_inning | 5.0 |
| ab_inning_topbot | Bot |
| ab_outs_when_up | 2.0 |
| ab_on_1b_start | 646240.0 |
| ab_on_2b_start | 669477.0 |
| ab_on_3b_start | 650333.0 |
| ab_balls_start | 0.0 |
| ab_strikes_start | 0.0 |
| ab_home_score_start | 4.0 |
| ab_away_score_start | 2.0 |
| ab_bat_score_start | 4.0 |
| ab_fld_score_start | 2.0 |
| ab_event | strikeout |
| ab_event_description | Victor Bericoto strikes out on a foul tip. |
| ab_event_type | S |
| ab_hit_location | 2.0 |
| ab_pitch_type_last | FF |
| ab_pitch_name_last | 4-Seam Fastball |
| ab_zone_last | 12.0 |
| ab_launch_speed_last | 82.7 |
| ab_launch_angle_last | 66.0 |
| ab_hit_distance_last | 137.0 |
| ab_estimated_woba_last | 0.0 |
| ab_woba_value | 0.0 |
| ab_woba_denom | 1.0 |
| ab_babip_value | 0.0 |
| ab_iso_value | 0.0 |
| ab_balls_end | 1.0 |
| ab_strikes_end | 2.0 |
| ab_home_score_end | 4.0 |
| ab_away_score_end | 2.0 |
| ab_bat_score_end | 4.0 |
| ab_fld_score_end | 2.0 |
| ab_pitch_count | 4.0 |
| ab_release_speed_avg | 96.1 |
| ab_release_spin_rate_avg | 2205.75 |
| ab_effective_speed_avg | 97.575 |
| ab_launch_speed_avg | 80.75 |
| ab_launch_angle_avg | 50.5 |
| ab_delta_run_exp_avg | -0.0605 |
| ab_delta_home_win_exp_avg | -0.01175 |
| ab_delta_pitcher_run_exp_avg | 0.0605 |
| ab_bat_speed_avg | 74.13333333333333 |
| ab_swing_length_avg | 7.066666666666666 |
| ab_launch_speed_max | 82.7 |
| ab_hit_distance_sc_max | 257.0 |
| ab_release_speed_max | 99.3 |
| ab_release_spin_rate_max | 2299.0 |
| ab_release_speed_min | 87.4 |
| ab_release_spin_rate_min | 2111.0 |
| ab_delta_run_exp_sum | -0.242 |
| ab_delta_home_win_exp_sum | -0.047 |
| ab_delta_pitcher_run_exp_sum | 0.242 |
| ab_result_is_hit | False |
| ab_result_is_walk | False |
| ab_result_is_strikeout | True |
| ab_result_is_hbp | False |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.091 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.091 | 0.000 | -0.091 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.182 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.182 | 4.000 | 0.818 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.257 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.257 | 0.250 | -0.257 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.818 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.818 | 1.000 | -0.818 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.273 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.273 | 0.000 | -0.273 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.257 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.270 | 0.250 | -0.270 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.455 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.455 | 0.000 | -0.455 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.727 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.727 | 0.000 | -0.727 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.091 | 0.000 | -0.091 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.543 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.543 | 0.250 | -0.543 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.545 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.545 | 0.000 | -0.545 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.1820 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.8180, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8180 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8180, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.1820 -> 3.2930 (boost 0.1110, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.7270 -> 0.6737 (deboost -0.0533, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5131 -> 0.5025 (deboost -0.0106, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.5992 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4008, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.2930 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.2930, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.074 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4429 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4429, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2491 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0839, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.5025 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.1695, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.5025 (boost 0.1695, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2491 (deboost -0.0839, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "678545",
"player_name": "Osleivis Basabe",
"position": "2B",
"team": "SF",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.091,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.182,
"predicted_AVG": 0.257,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.818,
"predicted_HR": 0.273,
"predicted_OBP": 0.257,
"predicted_R": 0.455,
"predicted_RBI": 0.727,
"predicted_SLG": 0.543,
"predicted_SO": 0.545
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1003,
"predicted_3B": 0.0019,
"predicted_AB": 3.293,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2548,
"predicted_BB": 0.0351,
"predicted_H": 0.8387,
"predicted_HBP": 0.058,
"predicted_HR": 0.2465,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2648,
"predicted_R": 0.4614,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6737,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5131,
"predicted_SO": 0.5938
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.091,
"after": 0.1003,
"delta": 0.0093,
"percent_delta": 0.1022,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0019,
"delta": 0.0019,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.182,
"after": 3.293,
"delta": 0.111,
"percent_delta": 0.0349,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.257,
"after": 0.2548,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.0086,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0351,
"delta": 0.0351,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.818,
"after": 0.8387,
"delta": 0.0207,
"percent_delta": 0.0253,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.273,
"after": 0.2465,
"delta": -0.0265,
"percent_delta": -0.0971,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.257,
"after": 0.2648,
"delta": 0.0078,
"percent_delta": 0.0304,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.455,
"after": 0.4614,
"delta": 0.0064,
"percent_delta": 0.0141,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.727,
"after": 0.6737,
"delta": -0.0533,
"percent_delta": -0.0733,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.543,
"after": 0.5131,
"delta": -0.0299,
"percent_delta": -0.0551,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.545,
"after": 0.5938,
"delta": 0.0488,
"percent_delta": 0.0895,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.182,
"after": 3.293,
"delta": 0.111,
"percent_delta": 0.0349,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.727,
"after": 0.6737,
"delta": -0.0533,
"percent_delta": -0.0733,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 11
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1003,
"predicted_3B": 0.0019,
"predicted_AB": 3.293,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2491,
"predicted_BB": 0.0348,
"predicted_H": 0.8202,
"predicted_HBP": 0.058,
"predicted_HR": 0.2435,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2569,
"predicted_R": 0.4429,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6467,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5025,
"predicted_SO": 0.5992
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1003,
"after": 0.1003,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0019,
"after": 0.0019,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.293,
"after": 3.293,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2548,
"after": 0.2491,
"delta": -0.0057,
"percent_delta": -0.0224,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0351,
"after": 0.0348,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0085,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8387,
"after": 0.8202,
"delta": -0.0185,
"percent_delta": -0.0221,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.058,
"after": 0.058,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2465,
"after": 0.2435,
"delta": -0.003,
"percent_delta": -0.0122,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2648,
"after": 0.2569,
"delta": -0.0079,
"percent_delta": -0.0298,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4614,
"after": 0.4429,
"delta": -0.0185,
"percent_delta": -0.0401,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6737,
"after": 0.6467,
"delta": -0.027,
"percent_delta": -0.0401,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5131,
"after": 0.5025,
"delta": -0.0106,
"percent_delta": -0.0207,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5938,
"after": 0.5992,
"delta": 0.0054,
"percent_delta": 0.0091,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5131,
"after": 0.5025,
"delta": -0.0106,
"percent_delta": -0.0207,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.074",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1003,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1003,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0019,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.293,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.293,
"percent_delta": -0.089,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0348,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0348,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8202,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1798,
"percent_delta": 0.2192,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.058,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.058,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2435,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2435,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6467,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3533,
"percent_delta": 0.5463,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5992,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4008,
"percent_delta": 0.6689,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5992,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4008,
"percent_delta": 0.6689,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.293,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.293,
"percent_delta": -0.089,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4429,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4429,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.333,
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},
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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"direction": "deboost",
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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"delta": 1.0,
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": -1.0,
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2491,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2569,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5025,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"delta": -0.0761,
"percent_delta": -0.2284,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": 0.1695,
"percent_delta": 0.509,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
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"better_metrics": 1,
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"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
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"delta": -0.0839,
"percent_delta": -0.252,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.091,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.091,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.818,
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"delta": -0.818,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.273,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.273,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.257,
"after": 0.2569,
"delta": -0.0001,
"percent_delta": -0.0004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.455,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.455,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.727,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.727,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.543,
"after": 0.5025,
"delta": -0.0405,
"percent_delta": -0.0746,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.545,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.545,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 3.182,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.818,
"percent_delta": 0.2571,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.818,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.818,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.091 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.182 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.257 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.818 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.273 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.257 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.455 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.727 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.543 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.545 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.100 | 0.009 |
| predicted_3B | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.293 | 0.111 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.255 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.035 | 0.035 |
| predicted_H | 0.839 | 0.021 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.058 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.246 | -0.027 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.265 | 0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.461 | 0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.674 | -0.053 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.513 | -0.030 |
| predicted_SO | 0.594 | 0.049 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.100 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.293 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.035 | -0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.820 | -0.018 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.058 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.243 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.257 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.443 | -0.018 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.647 | -0.027 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.502 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.599 | 0.005 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.074
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.100 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.293 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.084 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.035 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.180 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.243 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.076 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.443 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.353 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.169 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.401 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.2222 | 0.2222 | 0.2222 | 0.2222 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2222 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 0.2647 | 0.2778 | 0.5588 | 0.2647 | 0.0882 | 0.2353 | 0.0000 | 0.1471 |
| season | 0.60 | 11 | - | 35.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 0.2571 | 0.2703 | 0.5429 | 0.2571 | 0.0857 | 0.2286 | 0.0000 | 0.1714 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1200 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5300 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2501 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1100 |
| predicted_H | 0.8830 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0580 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1900 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2816 |
| predicted_R | 0.4750 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5600 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4493 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6980 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0910 | 0.1200 | 0.1003 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0060 | 0.0019 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.1820 | 3.5300 | 3.2930 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2570 | 0.2501 | 0.2548 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.1100 | 0.0351 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8180 | 0.8830 | 0.8387 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0580 | 0.0580 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2730 | 0.1900 | 0.2465 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2570 | 0.2816 | 0.2648 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4550 | 0.4750 | 0.4614 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7270 | 0.5600 | 0.6737 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5430 | 0.4493 | 0.5131 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5450 | 0.6980 | 0.5938 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 11 |
| Season rows before report date | 11 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 11 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.257 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 678545 |
| playerID | 678545 |
| playerName | Osleivis Basabe |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | SF |
| teamID | 24 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 0.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.354 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.319 |
| sl_xba | 0.268 |
| sl_xslg | 0.472 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 26.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 16.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.040 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.017 | 0.000 | -0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.600 | 4.000 | 0.400 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.206 | 0.667 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.244 | 0.000 | 0.423 | 0.667 |
| predicted_BB | 0.403 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.533 | 0.000 | 0.467 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.440 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.633 | 0.000 | 1.367 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.276 | 0.750 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.372 | 0.000 | 0.378 | 0.750 |
| predicted_R | 0.121 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.150 | 0.000 | -0.150 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.190 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.117 | 0.000 | -0.117 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.265 | 0.667 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.250 | 0.000 | 0.417 | 0.667 |
| predicted_SO | 0.766 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.783 | 1.000 | -0.783 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.4400 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.5600, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.7660 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7660, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_AB: 2.5000 -> 2.6671 (boost 0.1671, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2095 -> 0.1878 (deboost -0.0217, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.5008 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4992, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3676 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3676, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.016 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.1409 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1409, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1878 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1452, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1878 (deboost -0.1452, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "701852",
"player_name": "Drew Cavanaugh",
"position": "C",
"team": "SF",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.04,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.5,
"predicted_AVG": 0.206,
"predicted_BB": 0.403,
"predicted_H": 0.44,
"predicted_HR": 0.05,
"predicted_OBP": 0.276,
"predicted_R": 0.121,
"predicted_RBI": 0.19,
"predicted_SLG": 0.265,
"predicted_SO": 0.766
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0637,
"predicted_3B": 0.0015,
"predicted_AB": 2.6671,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2095,
"predicted_BB": 0.371,
"predicted_H": 0.5121,
"predicted_HBP": 0.007,
"predicted_HR": 0.0431,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2813,
"predicted_R": 0.1468,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2126,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2721,
"predicted_SO": 0.7991
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.04,
"after": 0.0637,
"delta": 0.0237,
"percent_delta": 0.5925,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0015,
"delta": 0.0015,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 2.6671,
"delta": 0.1671,
"percent_delta": 0.0668,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.206,
"after": 0.2095,
"delta": 0.0035,
"percent_delta": 0.017,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.371,
"delta": -0.032,
"percent_delta": -0.0794,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.44,
"after": 0.5121,
"delta": 0.0721,
"percent_delta": 0.1639,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.05,
"after": 0.0431,
"delta": -0.0069,
"percent_delta": -0.138,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.276,
"after": 0.2813,
"delta": 0.0053,
"percent_delta": 0.0192,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.121,
"after": 0.1468,
"delta": 0.0258,
"percent_delta": 0.2132,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.2126,
"delta": 0.0226,
"percent_delta": 0.1189,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.265,
"after": 0.2721,
"delta": 0.0071,
"percent_delta": 0.0268,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.766,
"after": 0.7991,
"delta": 0.0331,
"percent_delta": 0.0432,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 2.6671,
"delta": 0.1671,
"percent_delta": 0.0668,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 25
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0637,
"predicted_3B": 0.0015,
"predicted_AB": 2.6671,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1878,
"predicted_BB": 0.3676,
"predicted_H": 0.5008,
"predicted_HBP": 0.007,
"predicted_HR": 0.0426,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2862,
"predicted_R": 0.1409,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2041,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2607,
"predicted_SO": 0.8064
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0637,
"after": 0.0637,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0015,
"after": 0.0015,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.6671,
"after": 2.6671,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2095,
"after": 0.1878,
"delta": -0.0217,
"percent_delta": -0.1036,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.371,
"after": 0.3676,
"delta": -0.0034,
"percent_delta": -0.0092,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5121,
"after": 0.5008,
"delta": -0.0113,
"percent_delta": -0.0221,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.007,
"after": 0.007,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0431,
"after": 0.0426,
"delta": -0.0005,
"percent_delta": -0.0116,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2813,
"after": 0.2862,
"delta": 0.0049,
"percent_delta": 0.0174,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.1468,
"after": 0.1409,
"delta": -0.0059,
"percent_delta": -0.0402,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2126,
"after": 0.2041,
"delta": -0.0085,
"percent_delta": -0.04,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2721,
"after": 0.2607,
"delta": -0.0114,
"percent_delta": -0.0419,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7991,
"after": 0.8064,
"delta": 0.0073,
"percent_delta": 0.0091,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2095,
"after": 0.1878,
"delta": -0.0217,
"percent_delta": -0.1036,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.016",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0637,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0637,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0015,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0015,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.6671,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.3329,
"percent_delta": 0.1248,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3676,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3676,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5008,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4992,
"percent_delta": 0.9968,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.007,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0426,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0426,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2041,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2041,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8064,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1936,
"percent_delta": 0.2401,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5008,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4992,
"percent_delta": 0.9968,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3676,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3676,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
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},
{
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{
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},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
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},
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{
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},
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],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.040 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.206 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.440 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.276 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.121 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.265 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.766 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.064 | 0.024 |
| predicted_3B | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 2.667 | 0.167 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.371 | -0.032 |
| predicted_H | 0.512 | 0.072 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.007 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.043 | -0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.147 | 0.026 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.213 | 0.023 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.272 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.799 | 0.033 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.064 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.667 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.188 | -0.022 |
| predicted_BB | 0.368 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.501 | -0.011 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.043 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.286 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.141 | -0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.204 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.261 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.806 | 0.007 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.016
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.064 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.333 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.145 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.368 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.499 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.043 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.047 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.141 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.204 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.072 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.194 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 0.1250 | 0.1250 | 0.1875 | 0.1250 | 0.0000 | 0.0625 | 0.0000 | 0.3750 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 24.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 0.2083 | 0.2963 | 0.2500 | 0.2083 | 0.0000 | 0.0833 | 0.1250 | 0.2917 |
| season | 0.60 | 25 | - | 62.000 | 14.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 19.000 | 0.2258 | 0.3333 | 0.2419 | 0.2258 | 0.0000 | 0.0645 | 0.1613 | 0.3065 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1050 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 2.9590 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2157 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3150 |
| predicted_H | 0.6380 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0070 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0310 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2905 |
| predicted_R | 0.1920 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2520 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2845 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8570 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0400 | 0.1050 | 0.0637 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0040 | 0.0015 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.5000 | 2.9590 | 2.6671 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2060 | 0.2157 | 0.2095 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4030 | 0.3150 | 0.3710 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.4400 | 0.6380 | 0.5121 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0070 | 0.0070 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0500 | 0.0310 | 0.0431 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2760 | 0.2905 | 0.2813 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.1210 | 0.1920 | 0.1468 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1900 | 0.2520 | 0.2126 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2650 | 0.2845 | 0.2721 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7660 | 0.8570 | 0.7991 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 60 |
| Season rows before report date | 60 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 25 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.226 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 701852 |
| playerID | 701852 |
| playerName | Drew Cavanaugh |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | SF |
| teamID | 24 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 15.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.297 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.305 |
| sl_xba | 0.218 |
| sl_xslg | 0.309 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 21.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 84.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.212 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.239 | 0.000 | -0.239 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 | -0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.200 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.204 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.234 | 0.000 | 0.016 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.301 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.277 | 1.000 | -0.277 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.019 | 0.000 | -0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.860 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.936 | 0.000 | 0.064 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.178 | 0.000 | -0.178 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.285 | 0.250 | -0.035 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.504 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.536 | 0.000 | 0.464 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.420 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.500 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.387 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.433 | 0.000 | -0.183 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.168 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.209 | 1.000 | -1.209 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.4200 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5800, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.1680 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.1680, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.3010 -> 0.3542 (boost 0.0532, better) | predicted_AB: 4.2000 -> 3.9535 (deboost -0.2465, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2851 -> 0.2648 (deboost -0.0203, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.7887 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2113, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3753 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3753, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.037 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4327 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4327, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.1995 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0505, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3656 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1156, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3656 (boost 0.1156, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.1995 (deboost -0.0505, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "642715",
"player_name": "Willy Adames",
"position": "SS",
"team": "SF",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.212,
"predicted_3B": 0.009,
"predicted_AB": 4.2,
"predicted_AVG": 0.204,
"predicted_BB": 0.301,
"predicted_H": 0.86,
"predicted_HR": 0.16,
"predicted_OBP": 0.283,
"predicted_R": 0.504,
"predicted_RBI": 0.42,
"predicted_SLG": 0.387,
"predicted_SO": 1.168
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1739,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 3.9535,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2035,
"predicted_BB": 0.3542,
"predicted_H": 0.8064,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.1578,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2851,
"predicted_R": 0.4508,
"predicted_RBI": 0.391,
"predicted_SLG": 0.379,
"predicted_SO": 1.1511
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.212,
"after": 0.1739,
"delta": -0.0381,
"percent_delta": -0.1797,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2,
"after": 3.9535,
"delta": -0.2465,
"percent_delta": -0.0587,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.204,
"after": 0.2035,
"delta": -0.0005,
"percent_delta": -0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.301,
"after": 0.3542,
"delta": 0.0532,
"percent_delta": 0.1767,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.86,
"after": 0.8064,
"delta": -0.0536,
"percent_delta": -0.0623,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.1578,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.0138,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.283,
"after": 0.2851,
"delta": 0.0021,
"percent_delta": 0.0074,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.504,
"after": 0.4508,
"delta": -0.0532,
"percent_delta": -0.1056,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 0.391,
"delta": -0.029,
"percent_delta": -0.069,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.387,
"after": 0.379,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -0.0207,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.168,
"after": 1.1511,
"delta": -0.0169,
"percent_delta": -0.0145,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.301,
"after": 0.3542,
"delta": 0.0532,
"percent_delta": 0.1767,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2,
"after": 3.9535,
"delta": -0.2465,
"percent_delta": -0.0587,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 113
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1739,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 3.9535,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1995,
"predicted_BB": 0.351,
"predicted_H": 0.7887,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.1559,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2648,
"predicted_R": 0.4327,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3753,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3656,
"predicted_SO": 1.1616
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1739,
"after": 0.1739,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.9535,
"after": 3.9535,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2035,
"after": 0.1995,
"delta": -0.004,
"percent_delta": -0.0197,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3542,
"after": 0.351,
"delta": -0.0032,
"percent_delta": -0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8064,
"after": 0.7887,
"delta": -0.0177,
"percent_delta": -0.0219,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.011,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1578,
"after": 0.1559,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.012,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2851,
"after": 0.2648,
"delta": -0.0203,
"percent_delta": -0.0712,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4508,
"after": 0.4327,
"delta": -0.0181,
"percent_delta": -0.0402,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.391,
"after": 0.3753,
"delta": -0.0157,
"percent_delta": -0.0402,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.379,
"after": 0.3656,
"delta": -0.0134,
"percent_delta": -0.0354,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.1511,
"after": 1.1616,
"delta": 0.0105,
"percent_delta": 0.0091,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2851,
"after": 0.2648,
"delta": -0.0203,
"percent_delta": -0.0712,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.037",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1739,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1739,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.9535,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0465,
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.212 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.200 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.204 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.301 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.860 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.504 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.420 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.387 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.168 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.174 | -0.038 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.954 | -0.247 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.203 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.354 | 0.053 |
| predicted_H | 0.806 | -0.054 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.158 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.285 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.451 | -0.053 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.391 | -0.029 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.379 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 1.151 | -0.017 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.174 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.954 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.351 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.789 | -0.018 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.156 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.265 | -0.020 |
| predicted_R | 0.433 | -0.018 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.375 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.366 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 1.162 | 0.010 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.037
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.174 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.046 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.050 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.351 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.211 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.156 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.015 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.433 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.375 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.116 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.162 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 0.1875 | 0.3158 | 0.3750 | 0.1875 | 0.0625 | 0.0625 | 0.1875 | 0.3750 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 10.000 | 0.1471 | 0.2750 | 0.2353 | 0.1471 | 0.0294 | 0.0882 | 0.1765 | 0.2941 |
| season | 0.60 | 113 | - | 433.000 | 96.000 | 24.000 | 1.000 | 18.000 | 47.000 | 57.000 | 34.000 | 132.000 | 0.2217 | 0.2809 | 0.4065 | 0.2217 | 0.0416 | 0.1085 | 0.0785 | 0.3049 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1240 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6300 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2028 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4240 |
| predicted_H | 0.7360 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0110 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1550 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2878 |
| predicted_R | 0.3810 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3530 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3685 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1290 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2120 | 0.1240 | 0.1739 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0060 | 0.0077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.2000 | 3.6300 | 3.9535 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2040 | 0.2028 | 0.2035 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3010 | 0.4240 | 0.3542 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8600 | 0.7360 | 0.8064 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0110 | 0.0110 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1600 | 0.1550 | 0.1578 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2830 | 0.2878 | 0.2851 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5040 | 0.3810 | 0.4508 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4200 | 0.3530 | 0.3910 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3870 | 0.3685 | 0.3790 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1680 | 1.1290 | 1.1511 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 422 |
| Season rows before report date | 422 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 113 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.222 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 642715 |
| playerID | 642715 |
| playerName | Willy Adames |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | SF |
| teamID | 24 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.302 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.29 |
| sl_xba | 0.219 |
| sl_xslg | 0.381 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 22.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.243 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.253 | 0.000 | 0.747 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.037 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.043 | 0.000 | -0.043 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.960 | 4.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.934 | 5.000 | 0.066 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.250 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.319 | 0.400 | -0.069 | -0.150 |
| predicted_BB | 0.168 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.176 | 0.000 | -0.176 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.003 | 0.000 | -0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.220 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.256 | 2.000 | -0.256 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.051 | 1.000 | -0.051 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.290 | 0.250 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.355 | 0.400 | -0.105 | -0.150 |
| predicted_R | 0.523 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.586 | 1.000 | 0.414 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.640 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.394 | 1.000 | 0.606 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.424 | 0.500 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.445 | 1.000 | 0.055 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.402 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.389 | 0.000 | -0.389 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | deboosted |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.2430 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7570, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.9600 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.9600, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | predicted_AVG: 0.2450 -> 0.2577 (boost 0.0127, better) | predicted_AB: 4.9600 -> 4.4931 (deboost -0.4669, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2990 -> 0.2777 (deboost -0.0213, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 5 | predicted_AB: 4.4931 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.5069, better) | predicted_SO: 0.4261 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4261, better) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4904 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4904, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4286 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.2286, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 5.0000 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2000 -> 0.4286 (boost 0.2286, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "808982",
"player_name": "Jung Hoo Lee",
"position": "RF",
"team": "SF",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.243,
"predicted_3B": 0.037,
"predicted_AB": 4.96,
"predicted_AVG": 0.245,
"predicted_BB": 0.168,
"predicted_H": 1.22,
"predicted_HR": 0.2,
"predicted_OBP": 0.29,
"predicted_R": 0.523,
"predicted_RBI": 0.64,
"predicted_SLG": 0.424,
"predicted_SO": 0.402
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2189,
"predicted_3B": 0.0305,
"predicted_AB": 4.4931,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2577,
"predicted_BB": 0.168,
"predicted_H": 1.1528,
"predicted_HBP": 0.052,
"predicted_HR": 0.175,
"predicted_OBP": 0.299,
"predicted_R": 0.5109,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5732,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4328,
"predicted_SO": 0.4223
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.243,
"after": 0.2189,
"delta": -0.0241,
"percent_delta": -0.0992,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.037,
"after": 0.0305,
"delta": -0.0065,
"percent_delta": -0.1757,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.96,
"after": 4.4931,
"delta": -0.4669,
"percent_delta": -0.0941,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.2577,
"delta": 0.0127,
"percent_delta": 0.0518,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.168,
"after": 0.168,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.22,
"after": 1.1528,
"delta": -0.0672,
"percent_delta": -0.0551,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.175,
"delta": -0.025,
"percent_delta": -0.125,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.299,
"delta": 0.009,
"percent_delta": 0.031,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.523,
"after": 0.5109,
"delta": -0.0121,
"percent_delta": -0.0231,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.64,
"after": 0.5732,
"delta": -0.0668,
"percent_delta": -0.1044,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.424,
"after": 0.4328,
"delta": 0.0088,
"percent_delta": 0.0208,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.402,
"after": 0.4223,
"delta": 0.0203,
"percent_delta": 0.0505,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.2577,
"delta": 0.0127,
"percent_delta": 0.0518,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.96,
"after": 4.4931,
"delta": -0.4669,
"percent_delta": -0.0941,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 107
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2189,
"predicted_3B": 0.0305,
"predicted_AB": 4.4931,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2509,
"predicted_BB": 0.1665,
"predicted_H": 1.1274,
"predicted_HBP": 0.052,
"predicted_HR": 0.1728,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2777,
"predicted_R": 0.4904,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5502,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4286,
"predicted_SO": 0.4261
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2189,
"after": 0.2189,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0305,
"after": 0.0305,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.4931,
"after": 4.4931,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2577,
"after": 0.2509,
"delta": -0.0068,
"percent_delta": -0.0264,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.168,
"after": 0.1665,
"delta": -0.0015,
"percent_delta": -0.0089,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.1528,
"after": 1.1274,
"delta": -0.0254,
"percent_delta": -0.022,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.052,
"after": 0.052,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.175,
"after": 0.1728,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.0126,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.299,
"after": 0.2777,
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"delta": -0.168,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.22,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.22,
"percent_delta": -0.1803,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.2777,
"delta": -0.0123,
"percent_delta": -0.0424,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.523,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.477,
"percent_delta": 0.912,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.64,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.36,
"percent_delta": 0.5625,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.424,
"after": 0.4286,
"delta": 0.0046,
"percent_delta": 0.0108,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.402,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.402,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.243,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.757,
"percent_delta": 3.1152,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.96,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.96,
"percent_delta": -0.1935,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "deboosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.243 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.037 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.960 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.168 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.220 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.290 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.523 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.640 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.424 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.402 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.219 | -0.024 |
| predicted_3B | 0.030 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 4.493 | -0.467 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.258 | 0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.168 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.153 | -0.067 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.052 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.175 | -0.025 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | 0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.511 | -0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.573 | -0.067 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.433 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.422 | 0.020 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.219 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.030 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.493 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.167 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.127 | -0.025 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.052 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.173 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.278 | -0.021 |
| predicted_R | 0.490 | -0.021 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.550 | -0.023 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.429 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.426 | 0.004 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.219 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.030 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.507 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | -0.051 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.167 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.127 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.173 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.200 | -0.078 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.490 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.450 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.200 | -0.229 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.426 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.2000 | 0.2381 | 0.3500 | 0.2000 | 0.0500 | 0.1500 | 0.0500 | 0.1000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 40.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.2750 | 0.3023 | 0.5500 | 0.2750 | 0.0750 | 0.1500 | 0.0250 | 0.1250 |
| season | 0.60 | 107 | - | 407.000 | 123.000 | 26.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 44.000 | 56.000 | 18.000 | 43.000 | 0.3022 | 0.3387 | 0.4447 | 0.3022 | 0.0197 | 0.1081 | 0.0442 | 0.1056 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1870 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0220 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8770 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2745 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1680 |
| predicted_H | 1.0640 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0520 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1420 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3109 |
| predicted_R | 0.4950 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4850 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4444 |
| predicted_SO | 0.4490 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2430 | 0.1870 | 0.2189 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0370 | 0.0220 | 0.0305 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.9600 | 3.8770 | 4.4931 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2450 | 0.2745 | 0.2577 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1680 | 0.1680 | 0.1680 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.2200 | 1.0640 | 1.1528 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0520 | 0.0520 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2000 | 0.1420 | 0.1750 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2900 | 0.3109 | 0.2990 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5230 | 0.4950 | 0.5109 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6400 | 0.4850 | 0.5732 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4240 | 0.4444 | 0.4328 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.4020 | 0.4490 | 0.4223 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 391 |
| Season rows before report date | 391 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 107 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.302 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 1 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.4 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 5 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 808982 |
| playerID | 808982 |
| playerName | Jung Hoo Lee |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | SF |
| teamID | 24 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 10.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 4.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.337 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.312 |
| sl_xba | 0.289 |
| sl_xslg | 0.379 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 29.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 10.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 13.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.115 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.150 | 0.000 | -0.150 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.034 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.047 | 0.000 | -0.047 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.770 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.063 | 3.000 | -0.063 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.267 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.244 | 0.333 | -0.244 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.218 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.277 | 0.000 | 0.723 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.047 | 0.000 | -0.047 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.650 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.747 | 1.000 | -0.747 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.063 | 1.000 | -0.063 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.326 | 0.250 | -0.076 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.356 | 1.000 | -0.356 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.420 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.312 | 2.000 | -0.312 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.420 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.386 | 1.333 | -0.386 | -1.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.494 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.561 | 1.000 | -0.561 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.2180 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7820, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.6500 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6500, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2670 -> 0.2573 (deboost -0.0097, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4235 -> 0.3985 (deboost -0.0250, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.4972 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5028, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.3781 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3781, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.031 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3524 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3524, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2334 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0996, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3985 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0655, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.3985 (boost 0.0655, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2334 (deboost -0.0996, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "687551",
"player_name": "Drew Gilbert",
"position": "CF",
"team": "SF",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.115,
"predicted_3B": 0.034,
"predicted_AB": 2.77,
"predicted_AVG": 0.267,
"predicted_BB": 0.218,
"predicted_H": 0.65,
"predicted_HR": 0.08,
"predicted_OBP": 0.316,
"predicted_R": 0.333,
"predicted_RBI": 0.42,
"predicted_SLG": 0.42,
"predicted_SO": 0.494
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.099,
"predicted_3B": 0.0521,
"predicted_AB": 2.8032,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2573,
"predicted_BB": 0.226,
"predicted_H": 0.6689,
"predicted_HBP": 0.034,
"predicted_HR": 0.0876,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3107,
"predicted_R": 0.3671,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3939,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4235,
"predicted_SO": 0.4927
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.115,
"after": 0.099,
"delta": -0.016,
"percent_delta": -0.1391,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.034,
"after": 0.0521,
"delta": 0.0181,
"percent_delta": 0.5324,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.77,
"after": 2.8032,
"delta": 0.0332,
"percent_delta": 0.012,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.267,
"after": 0.2573,
"delta": -0.0097,
"percent_delta": -0.0363,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.218,
"after": 0.226,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0367,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.65,
"after": 0.6689,
"delta": 0.0189,
"percent_delta": 0.0291,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0876,
"delta": 0.0076,
"percent_delta": 0.095,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.316,
"after": 0.3107,
"delta": -0.0053,
"percent_delta": -0.0168,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3671,
"delta": 0.0341,
"percent_delta": 0.1024,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 0.3939,
"delta": -0.0261,
"percent_delta": -0.0621,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 0.4235,
"delta": 0.0035,
"percent_delta": 0.0083,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.494,
"after": 0.4927,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.0026,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.267,
"after": 0.2573,
"delta": -0.0097,
"percent_delta": -0.0363,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 87
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.099,
"predicted_3B": 0.0521,
"predicted_AB": 2.8032,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2334,
"predicted_BB": 0.2239,
"predicted_H": 0.6542,
"predicted_HBP": 0.034,
"predicted_HR": 0.0865,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3985,
"delta": 0.0655,
"percent_delta": 0.1966,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3985,
"delta": 0.0655,
"percent_delta": 0.1966,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2334,
"delta": -0.0996,
"percent_delta": -0.2992,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.115,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.115,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.034,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.034,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.77,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.23,
"percent_delta": 0.083,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.267,
"after": 0.2334,
"delta": -0.0336,
"percent_delta": -0.1258,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.218,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.782,
"percent_delta": 3.5872,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.65,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.65,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.08,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.316,
"after": 0.2901,
"delta": -0.0259,
"percent_delta": -0.082,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.333,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.42,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 0.3985,
"delta": -0.0215,
"percent_delta": -0.0512,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.494,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.494,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.218,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.782,
"percent_delta": 3.5872,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.65,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.65,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.115 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.034 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.770 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.267 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.218 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.650 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.420 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.420 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.494 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.099 | -0.016 |
| predicted_3B | 0.052 | 0.018 |
| predicted_AB | 2.803 | 0.033 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.257 | -0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.226 | 0.008 |
| predicted_H | 0.669 | 0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.034 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.088 | 0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.367 | 0.034 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.394 | -0.026 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.423 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.493 | -0.001 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.099 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.052 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.803 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | -0.024 |
| predicted_BB | 0.224 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.654 | -0.015 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.034 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.086 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.290 | -0.021 |
| predicted_R | 0.352 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.378 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.399 | -0.025 |
| predicted_SO | 0.497 | 0.004 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.031
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.099 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.052 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.197 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.100 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.224 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.346 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.086 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.043 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.352 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.378 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.066 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.503 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 14.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.2143 | 0.2500 | 0.5714 | 0.2143 | 0.0714 | 0.2143 | 0.0714 | 0.1429 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 26.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 0.2692 | 0.3333 | 0.4615 | 0.2692 | 0.0385 | 0.1154 | 0.1154 | 0.1538 |
| season | 0.60 | 87 | - | 241.000 | 59.000 | 10.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 24.000 | 29.000 | 19.000 | 43.000 | 0.2448 | 0.3109 | 0.3734 | 0.2448 | 0.0208 | 0.0996 | 0.0788 | 0.1784 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0770 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0770 |
| predicted_AB | 2.8490 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2370 |
| predicted_H | 0.6950 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0340 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0980 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3034 |
| predicted_R | 0.4140 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3580 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4284 |
| predicted_SO | 0.4910 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1150 | 0.0770 | 0.0990 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0340 | 0.0770 | 0.0521 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.7700 | 2.8490 | 2.8032 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2670 | 0.2440 | 0.2573 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2180 | 0.2370 | 0.2260 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6500 | 0.6950 | 0.6689 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0340 | 0.0340 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.0980 | 0.0876 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3160 | 0.3034 | 0.3107 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3330 | 0.4140 | 0.3671 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4200 | 0.3580 | 0.3939 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4200 | 0.4284 | 0.4235 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.4940 | 0.4910 | 0.4927 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 253 |
| Season rows before report date | 253 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 87 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.245 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 1 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 687551 |
| playerID | 687551 |
| playerName | Drew Gilbert |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | SF |
| teamID | 24 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 15.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.303 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.31 |
| sl_xba | 0.256 |
| sl_xslg | 0.356 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.043 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.025 | 0.000 | -0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.696 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.550 | 4.000 | 1.450 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.183 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.147 | 0.250 | 0.103 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.087 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.100 | 0.000 | -0.100 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.410 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.375 | 1.000 | 0.625 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.212 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.187 | 0.250 | 0.063 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.174 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.100 | 0.000 | -0.100 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.025 | 0.000 | -0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.207 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.157 | 0.250 | 0.093 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.609 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.425 | 0.000 | -0.425 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.6960 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.3040, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.6090 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6090, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | predicted_AB: 2.6960 -> 2.8661 (boost 0.1701, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2124 -> 0.1880 (deboost -0.0244, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.6660 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3340, worse) | predicted_H: 0.4617 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4617, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.161 HR/AB=0.009 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.1814 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1814, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.2065 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2065, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.0000 -> 0.2065 (boost 0.2065, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "683766",
"player_name": "Christian Koss",
"position": "3B",
"team": "SF",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.043,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.696,
"predicted_AVG": 0.183,
"predicted_BB": 0.087,
"predicted_H": 0.41,
"predicted_HR": 0.02,
"predicted_OBP": 0.212,
"predicted_R": 0.174,
"predicted_RBI": 0.08,
"predicted_SLG": 0.207,
"predicted_SO": 0.609
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0523,
"predicted_3B": 0.0014,
"predicted_AB": 2.8661,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1834,
"predicted_BB": 0.0959,
"predicted_H": 0.4721,
"predicted_HBP": 0.009,
"predicted_HR": 0.0253,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2124,
"predicted_R": 0.189,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1046,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2195,
"predicted_SO": 0.66
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.043,
"after": 0.0523,
"delta": 0.0093,
"percent_delta": 0.2163,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0014,
"delta": 0.0014,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.696,
"after": 2.8661,
"delta": 0.1701,
"percent_delta": 0.0631,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.183,
"after": 0.1834,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.0022,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.087,
"after": 0.0959,
"delta": 0.0089,
"percent_delta": 0.1023,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 0.4721,
"delta": 0.0621,
"percent_delta": 0.1515,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.0253,
"delta": 0.0053,
"percent_delta": 0.265,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.188,
"delta": 0.188,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.2065,
"delta": 0.2065,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.2065,
"delta": 0.2065,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.043,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.043,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.696,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.304,
"percent_delta": 0.4837,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.183,
"after": 0.1611,
"delta": -0.0219,
"percent_delta": -0.1197,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.087,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.087,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.59,
"percent_delta": 1.439,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.02,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.212,
"after": 0.188,
"delta": -0.024,
"percent_delta": -0.1132,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.174,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.174,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.08,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.207,
"after": 0.2065,
"delta": -0.0005,
"percent_delta": -0.0024,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.609,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.609,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.696,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.304,
"percent_delta": 0.4837,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.609,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.609,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.043 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.696 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.183 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.087 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.410 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.212 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.174 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.207 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.609 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.052 | 0.009 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 2.866 | 0.170 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.183 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.096 | 0.009 |
| predicted_H | 0.472 | 0.062 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.025 | 0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.212 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.189 | 0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.105 | 0.025 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.220 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.660 | 0.051 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.052 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.866 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.161 | -0.022 |
| predicted_BB | 0.095 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.462 | -0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.025 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.188 | -0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.181 | -0.008 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.100 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.206 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.666 | 0.006 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.161 HR/AB=0.009
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.052 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.134 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.000 | -0.161 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.095 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | -0.462 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.025 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.000 | -0.188 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.181 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.100 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.000 | -0.206 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.334 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.1250 | 0.1250 | 0.1250 | 0.1250 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 31.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 9.000 | 0.1613 | 0.1613 | 0.1613 | 0.1613 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2903 |
| season | 0.60 | 23 | - | 62.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 14.000 | 0.1613 | 0.1875 | 0.1774 | 0.1613 | 0.0000 | 0.0161 | 0.0323 | 0.2258 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0690 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.1730 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1841 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1120 |
| predicted_H | 0.5840 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0090 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2131 |
| predicted_R | 0.2160 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1490 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2420 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7520 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0430 | 0.0690 | 0.0523 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0040 | 0.0014 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.6960 | 3.1730 | 2.8661 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1830 | 0.1841 | 0.1834 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.0870 | 0.1120 | 0.0959 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.4100 | 0.5840 | 0.4721 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0090 | 0.0090 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0200 | 0.0350 | 0.0253 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2120 | 0.2131 | 0.2124 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.1740 | 0.2160 | 0.1890 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.0800 | 0.1490 | 0.1046 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2070 | 0.2420 | 0.2195 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6090 | 0.7520 | 0.6600 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 40 |
| Season rows before report date | 40 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 23 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.161 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 683766 |
| playerID | 683766 |
| playerName | Christian Koss |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | SF |
| teamID | 24 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.172 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.197 |
| sl_xba | 0.176 |
| sl_xslg | 0.216 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 18.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 84.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 55.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 3.000 | 3.000 | -2.000 | -2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_ER | 3.600 | 4.000 | 1.400 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 7.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | Pitching_H | 5.200 | 5.000 | 1.800 | 2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 4.100 | 4.100 | 4.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 4.280 | 3.100 | -0.180 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_SO | 4.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 4.6667 -> 4.1000 (deboost -0.5667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | starter_usage_guardrail | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 4.6667 -> 4.1000 (deboost -0.5667, worse) | Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "687931",
"player_name": "Carson Whisenhunt",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "SF",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 5.0,
"predicted_H": 7.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.6667,
"predicted_SO": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
"description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 5.0,
"predicted_H": 7.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.1,
"predicted_SO": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.5667,
"percent_delta": -0.1214,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.5667,
"percent_delta": -0.1214,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 5.0,
"predicted_H": 7.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.1,
"predicted_R": 5.0,
"predicted_SO": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.1,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.5667,
"percent_delta": -0.1214,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.5667,
"percent_delta": -0.1214,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 7.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 4.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 6.000 | - |
Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 7.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 4.100 | -0.567 |
| predicted_SO | 6.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 22.100 | 18.000 | 26.000 | 15.000 | 20.000 | 4.000 | 7.2537 | 1.8358 | 0.8060 | 1.1642 | 0.6716 | 0.8955 | 0.1791 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 5 | 22.100 | 18.000 | 26.000 | 15.000 | 20.000 | 4.000 | 7.2537 | 1.8358 | 0.8060 | 1.1642 | 0.6716 | 0.8955 | 0.1791 |
| season | 0.20 | 5 | 22.100 | 18.000 | 26.000 | 15.000 | 20.000 | 4.000 | 7.2537 | 1.8358 | 0.8060 | 1.1642 | 0.6716 | 0.8955 | 0.1791 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.3220 |
| predicted_ER | 2.9350 |
| predicted_ERA | 5.8703 |
| predicted_H | 4.8080 |
| predicted_HR | 0.7370 |
| predicted_IP | 4.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 4.1720 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.5844 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 2.3220 | 1.5800 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 5.0000 | 2.9350 | 4.0940 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 5.8703 | 5.8703 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 7.0000 | 4.8080 | 6.0383 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 2.0000 | 0.7370 | 1.4459 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 4.2000 | 4.2000 | 4.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 6.0000 | 4.1720 | 5.1980 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.5844 | 1.5844 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 5 |
| Season rows before report date | 5 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 5 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 4.1 |
| H | 7 |
| R | 5 |
| ER | 5 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 6 |
| HR | 2 |
| BF | 21 |
| Pitches | 80 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 3 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 18 |
| Pitching_ER | 4 |
| Pitching_ERA | 7.25 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 3 |
| Pitching_H | 5 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 3.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 70 |
| Pitching_R | 4 |
| Pitching_SO | 4 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 42 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | L |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260805_SF@TEX |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 687931 |
| playerID | 687931 |
| playerName | Carson Whisenhunt |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SF |
| teamID | 24 |
| game_date | 2026-08-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 14.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.388 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.387 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 48.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.5 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 79.607180286 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.998685507 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.639 | 1.000 | -0.639 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.583 | 1.000 | 0.417 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 1.222 | 1.000 | -0.222 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.417 | 0.200 | -0.317 | 0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.028 | 0.000 | -0.028 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "664141",
"player_name": "JT Brubaker",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "SF",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.3333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 6.100 | 6.000 | 8.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 8.5263 | 1.7368 | 0.9474 | 1.2632 | 0.4737 | 0.3158 | 0.1579 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 16.100 | 9.000 | 14.000 | 5.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 4.9592 | 1.1633 | 0.5510 | 0.8571 | 0.3061 | 0.5510 | 0.1837 |
| season | 0.20 | 36 | 55.200 | 21.000 | 44.000 | 23.000 | 37.000 | 5.000 | 3.3952 | 1.2036 | 0.3772 | 0.7904 | 0.4132 | 0.6647 | 0.0898 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.5690 |
| predicted_ER | 0.9250 |
| predicted_ERA | 5.7047 |
| predicted_H | 1.4740 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2220 |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9050 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3995 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.5690 | 0.2953 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.9250 | 0.9611 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 5.7047 | 5.7047 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 1.4740 | 1.2460 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.2220 | 0.5962 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.9050 | 0.9507 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3995 | 1.3995 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 36 |
| Season rows before report date | 36 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 36 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 10 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.40 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 17 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 10 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | BS |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 664141 |
| playerID | 664141 |
| playerName | JT Brubaker |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SF |
| teamID | 24 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.282 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.333 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.124803537 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.400225706 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.462 | 1.000 | 0.538 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.308 | 1.000 | 0.692 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.692 | 1.000 | 0.308 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.781 | 1.000 | 0.219 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.038 | 0.000 | -0.038 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "681916",
"player_name": "Dylan Smith",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "SF",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
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},
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},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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"summary": {
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],
"total_change": {
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],
"summary": {
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"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.200 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 3.8571 | 1.5000 | 0.4286 | 0.8571 | 0.6429 | 1.0714 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.100 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 13.000 | 0.000 | 2.8929 | 1.5000 | 0.3214 | 0.8571 | 0.6429 | 1.3929 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 26 | 23.100 | 8.000 | 18.000 | 12.000 | 27.000 | 2.000 | 3.0857 | 1.2857 | 0.3429 | 0.7714 | 0.5143 | 1.1571 | 0.0857 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4840 |
| predicted_ER | 0.4380 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.9455 |
| predicted_H | 0.9090 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0850 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0760 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3929 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.4840 | 0.7774 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.4380 | 0.7575 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.9455 | 3.9455 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.9090 | 0.9607 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0850 | 0.0367 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.0760 | 1.0328 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3929 | 1.3929 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 26 |
| Season rows before report date | 26 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 26 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 20 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.09 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 15 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 8 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 1 |
| Pitching_decision | BS |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 681916 |
| playerID | 681916 |
| playerName | Dylan Smith |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SF |
| teamID | 24 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.283 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.302 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.5 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.913551071 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.980005357 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.381 | 0.000 | -0.381 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.310 | 0.000 | -0.310 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.738 | 0.000 | -0.738 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.807 | 0.200 | 0.193 | 0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.786 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "676775",
"player_name": "Keaton Winn",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "SF",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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{
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{
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],
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],
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],
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"dominant_effect": "neutral"
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}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 1.5000 | 0.0000 | 1.0000 | 0.5000 | 1.0000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.100 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 6.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 2.1600 | 1.8000 | 0.2400 | 1.0800 | 0.7200 | 0.8400 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 42 | 40.200 | 13.000 | 31.000 | 16.000 | 33.000 | 2.000 | 2.8770 | 1.1557 | 0.3197 | 0.7623 | 0.3934 | 0.8115 | 0.0492 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4020 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2350 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.5327 |
| predicted_H | 0.8160 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0520 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7730 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4588 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4020 | 0.1966 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2350 | 0.1150 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.5327 | 2.5327 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.8160 | 0.3991 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0520 | 0.0254 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.7730 | 0.8890 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4588 | 1.4588 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 42 |
| Season rows before report date | 42 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 42 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 14 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 2 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.88 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 5 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 2 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 676775 |
| playerID | 676775 |
| playerName | Keaton Winn |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SF |
| teamID | 24 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.279 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.301 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 74.944108182 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.913644455 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.588 | 0.000 | -0.588 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.235 | 0.000 | -0.235 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.706 | 0.000 | -0.706 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.656 | 1.000 | 0.344 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.912 | 1.000 | -0.912 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "656529",
"player_name": "Sam Hentges",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "SF",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
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"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.100 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 1.6875 | 1.3125 | 0.1875 | 0.9375 | 0.3750 | 1.1250 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.000 | 4.000 | 10.000 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 4.0000 | 1.5556 | 0.4444 | 1.1111 | 0.4444 | 1.0000 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 33 | 27.200 | 8.000 | 23.000 | 20.000 | 31.000 | 0.000 | 2.6024 | 1.5542 | 0.2892 | 0.8313 | 0.7229 | 1.1205 | 0.0000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4170 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3930 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.5376 |
| predicted_H | 0.9750 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0710 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0230 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3923 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4170 | 0.1874 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3930 | 0.1766 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.5376 | 3.5376 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.9750 | 0.4382 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0710 | 0.0319 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.0230 | 0.4598 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3923 | 1.3923 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 34 |
| Season rows before report date | 34 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 33 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 16 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.60 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 15 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 9 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 656529 |
| playerID | 656529 |
| playerName | Sam Hentges |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SF |
| teamID | 24 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 16.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.311 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.306 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 31.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.9 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.663700588 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.625388824 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.500 | 2.000 | 0.500 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.625 | 2.000 | -0.625 | -2.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 1.000 | 2.000 | -1.000 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.912 | 1.000 | -0.812 | -0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.625 | 0.000 | -0.625 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "671345",
"player_name": "Jason Foley",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "SF",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.1,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 5.4000 | 2.0000 | 0.6000 | 1.2000 | 0.8000 | 0.6000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 8 | 8.000 | 5.000 | 8.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 5.6250 | 1.5000 | 0.6250 | 1.0000 | 0.5000 | 0.6250 | 0.1250 |
| season | 0.20 | 8 | 8.000 | 5.000 | 8.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 5.6250 | 1.5000 | 0.6250 | 1.0000 | 0.5000 | 0.6250 | 0.1250 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2200 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2600 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.7256 |
| predicted_H | 0.5010 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0600 |
| predicted_IP | 0.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.4320 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4561 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.2200 | 0.7427 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2600 | 0.0858 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.7256 | 4.7256 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.5010 | 0.1653 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0600 | 0.0198 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.4320 | 0.1425 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4561 | 1.4561 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 8 |
| Season rows before report date | 8 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 8 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 0.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 16 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 2 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 7 |
| Pitching_ER | 2 |
| Pitching_ERA | 5.63 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 19 |
| Pitching_R | 3 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 9 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 1 |
| Pitching_decision | L |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 6 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_HOU@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 671345 |
| playerID | 671345 |
| playerName | Jason Foley |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SF |
| teamID | 24 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.309 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.296 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 31.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 16.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 72.161835455 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.389647727 |
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | KC 4 - 5 LAD | LAD | 0.530 | scoring_simulation.final_score | True |
| Simulation draw | KC 5 - 6 LAD | LAD | - | organic_score_same_winner | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.6747; empirical=0.5573; weight=0.5000; final=0.6160 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=1; abs=1; home delta=0.0083; away delta=-0.0083 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=1.6500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=2.3660; recent edge=-0.1600; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 9.6000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.5300 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_score_same_winner |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 7 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 4.295 | 4.467 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 4 | 4 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 3 | 5 | 0.5300 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail) |
| 4 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 5 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 5 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 5 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 6 | capped_target | 4 | 5 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 7 | simulation_result | 5 | 6 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
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"combined": 1.1325468
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"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
}{
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"near_bucket_sample_size": 192,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 373,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 473,
"global_sample_size": 473,
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"sample_weight": 0.6,
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}{
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"published_confidence": 0.53,
"published_after_governors": true
}{
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
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{
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}
]
}{
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"wins": 70,
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},
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},
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"recent_quality_edge": -0.16,
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},
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"recent_alignment": "conflict",
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"method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
},
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}
}{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
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"roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
}{
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"reasons": [
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],
"signals": {
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"opponent_breakout": false,
"opponent_blowout_win": false,
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}
],
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"verification_policy": "pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final",
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}
]
},
"guardrail_predicted_team": "KC",
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"output_pre_simulation_winner": "LAD",
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"final_score_winner": "LAD",
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},
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"score_text": "KC 4 - 5 LAD",
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},
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},
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}
},
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},
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}
}
}{
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}{
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}{
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"reasons": [
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"season run-differential edge supports the pick",
"win-probability calibration cap enforced"
]
}{
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"score_text": "KC 4 - 5 LAD",
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},
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},
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}{
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"predicted_score_text": "KC 5 - 6 LAD",
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{
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{
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{
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"player_name": "Mookie Betts",
"position": "SS",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.5179273938194062,
"contact": 0.649874095035388,
"power": 0.30411578490984836,
"discipline": 0.6260328962502874,
"xwoba": 0.326,
"recent_xwoba": 0.326,
"barrel": 7.200000000000001,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.28593474581602074,
"ab_bat_speed": 67.58734662383472,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.12248677248677249,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "608379",
"player_name": "Michael Wacha",
"quality": -0.15569451245444313,
"contact": 0.13301131128100535,
"command": -0.4454841269841271,
"movement": -0.7735273090292152,
"xwoba": 0.315,
"whiff": 21.2,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2673184860119048,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.86666666666667,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.23333333333333334,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006702420300892518
}
}
},
"fundamental_edge_target_review": {
"applied": false,
"method": "post_score_adjustment_fundamental_edge_review_v1",
"previous_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner_side": "home"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner_side": "home"
},
"signals": {
"season_quality_edge_home_minus_away": 1.4819,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.19,
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.082,
"composite_home_edge": 0.8621,
"existing_home_win_probability": 0.5676,
"refreshed_home_win_probability": 0.7,
"winner_support_before_review": 0.8621
},
"reasons": [
"target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile"
]
},
"confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Season quality guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"predicted_score_text": "KC 4 - 5 LAD",
"confidence": 0.53,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "KC 4 - 5 LAD",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 6,
"score_text": "KC 5 - 6 LAD",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.082,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.19,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 1,
"home_run_delta": 1,
"total_run_delta": 2,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 6,
"winner": "LAD",
"model_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 6
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 1.4819,
"winner": "LAD",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
},
"decision_profile": {
"method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
"winner": "LAD",
"display_confidence": 0.53,
"internal_signal_score": 0.5597,
"internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
"model_pick_probability": 0.53,
"confidence_compression_detected": false,
"moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
"betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
"market_context": null,
"margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
"totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
"winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
"signals": {
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 1.4819,
"winner_recent_form_edge": -0.16,
"winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.082,
"winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.2,
"blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3,
"high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.4,
"low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1,
"total_runs_spread": {
"min": 6,
"median": 10,
"max": 15,
"range": 9
}
},
"interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away KC | True | 1.0228 | 1.0228 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home LAD | True | 1.0486 | 1.0486 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1B | Jac Caglianone | 50 | 1.1038 | 1.3838 | neutral | 0.3600 | 0.2770 | 0.5100 | 14.50 | 55.30 | 93 | 7.40 | 29 | 26.50 | 6.30 | 0.4571 |
| 3B | Nick Loftin | 156 | 0.9792 | -0.2774 | neutral | 0.3000 | 0.2360 | 0.3440 | 4.30 | 28.60 | 86.70 | 13.80 | 15.40 | 14.50 | 9.50 | -0.4857 |
| SS | Bobby Witt Jr. | 6 | 1.1303 | 1.7371 | positive_batter_regression | 0.3840 | 0.3040 | 0.5130 | 12.10 | 52.40 | 92.80 | 16.60 | 24.60 | 17.10 | 10 | 1 |
| LF | Tyler Tolbert | 227 | 0.9884 | -0.1541 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3080 | 0.2650 | 0.3470 | 4 | 29.30 | 85.30 | 8.40 | 26.40 | 16.30 | 7.10 | -1.4857 |
| C | Carter Jensen | 143 | 0.9832 | -0.2240 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2830 | 0.2020 | 0.3580 | 9.90 | 43.30 | 90.60 | 20.70 | 29.90 | 29.60 | 9.90 | -0.8857 |
| DH | Salvador Perez | 574 | 1.0154 | 0.2052 | neutral | 0.2970 | 0.2290 | 0.4090 | 9.70 | 41.90 | 88.80 | 15.90 | 25.30 | 20.20 | 3.90 | 0.6000 |
| 2B | Michael Massey | 152 | 0.9985 | -0.0200 | neutral | 0.2950 | 0.2410 | 0.3950 | 5.90 | 40.40 | 89.70 | 16.70 | 19 | 16.40 | 4.90 | -0.4286 |
| RF | John Rave | 248 | 1.0422 | 0.5622 | neutral | 0.3760 | 0.2780 | 0.5170 | 17.60 | 35.30 | 86.50 | 14.60 | 23.80 | 18.80 | 10.40 | -0.0571 |
| CF | Kyle Isbel | 289 | 0.9645 | -0.4727 | neutral | 0.2700 | 0.2340 | 0.3160 | 2.80 | 34 | 88.60 | 12.40 | 19.10 | 21.40 | 5.50 | -0.1429 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DH | Shohei Ohtani | 30 | 1.1408 | 1.8777 | neutral | 0.4070 | 0.2950 | 0.5690 | 16.40 | 52.30 | 93.30 | 12.70 | 30.50 | 23 | 13.90 | 0.4000 |
| 3B | Max Muncy | 26 | 1.0618 | 0.8243 | neutral | 0.3450 | 0.2370 | 0.4660 | 13.50 | 45.40 | 90.40 | 16.50 | 29 | 25.60 | 11.80 | -0.3429 |
| CF | Andy Pages | 7 | 1.0451 | 0.6015 | neutral | 0.3370 | 0.2680 | 0.4360 | 7.60 | 42.80 | 89.10 | 16.10 | 22.80 | 20.20 | 8.10 | -0.2571 |
| RF | Kyle Tucker | 224 | 1.0393 | 0.5235 | neutral | 0.3360 | 0.2620 | 0.3960 | 6.40 | 38.70 | 89 | 17.10 | 22.10 | 18.60 | 12.30 | 0.3429 |
| 1B | Freddie Freeman | 37 | 1.1003 | 1.3368 | neutral | 0.3790 | 0.3020 | 0.4940 | 9.20 | 43.50 | 89.90 | 12.10 | 21.50 | 15.80 | 10.30 | 0.2286 |
| SS | Mookie Betts | 132 | 1.0534 | 0.7120 | positive_batter_regression | 0.3260 | 0.2730 | 0.4260 | 7.20 | 38.40 | 90.50 | 18.40 | 12.40 | 11.70 | 7.30 | 0.9143 |
| 2B | Tommy Edman | 151 | 1.0119 | 0.1590 | neutral | 0.3310 | 0.2810 | 0.3940 | 6.40 | 37.60 | 88.80 | 12.30 | 21.20 | 21 | 6.40 | -0.2000 |
| C | Ben Rortvedt | 423 | 1.0314 | 0.4182 | positive_batter_regression | 0.3660 | 0.3960 | 0.4390 | 0 | 0 | 87.10 | -1.30 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| LF | Alex Call | 266 | 0.9530 | -0.6272 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2790 | 0.2080 | 0.2670 | 2 | 19 | 84 | 15 | 15.80 | 16.40 | 12.30 | -0.9429 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0486,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0486,
"team_espn_average_rank": 144.0,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "660271",
"player_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
"offense_factor": 1.1408,
"quality_score": 1.8777,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "660271",
"espn_id": 39832,
"player_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 30,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 30,
"gp_value": 109.0,
"gp_rank": 99,
"ab_value": 419.0,
"ab_rank": 69,
"r_value": 75.0,
"r_rank": 9,
"h_value": 123.0,
"h_rank": 21,
"avg_value": 0.293556,
"avg_rank": 12.0,
"2b_value": 23.0,
"2b_rank": 36,
"3b_value": 2.0,
"3b_rank": 56,
"hr_value": 26.0,
"hr_rank": 9,
"rbi_value": 72.0,
"rbi_rank": 16,
"tb_value": 228.0,
"tb_rank": 196,
"bb_value": 69.0,
"bb_rank": 11,
"so_value": 114.0,
"so_rank": 40,
"sb_value": 7.0,
"sb_rank": 105,
"obp_value": 0.3955823,
"obp_rank": "2",
"slg_value": 0.5441527,
"slg_rank": "6",
"ops_value": 0.939735,
"ops_rank": 8.0,
"war_value": 3.43,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 414.0,
"k_percent": 23.0,
"bb_percent": 13.9,
"woba": 0.393,
"xwoba": 0.407,
"xba": 0.295,
"xslg": 0.569,
"sweet_spot_percent": 39.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 16.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 52.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 93.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.7,
"whiff_percent": 30.5,
"swing_percent": 46.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 2.1182,
"regression_edge": 0.4,
"xwoba_edge": 2.5,
"xba_edge": 1.6571,
"xslg_edge": 2.5,
"barrel_edge": 2.1333,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.0643,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.88,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.1,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "571970",
"player_name": "Max Muncy",
"offense_factor": 1.0618,
"quality_score": 0.8243,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "571970",
"espn_id": 33303,
"player_name": "Max Muncy",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 26,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
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"gp_value": 109.0,
"gp_rank": 99,
"ab_value": 359.0,
"ab_rank": 118,
"r_value": 62.0,
"r_rank": 47,
"h_value": 89.0,
"h_rank": 117,
"avg_value": 0.2479108,
"avg_rank": 90.0,
"2b_value": 17.0,
"2b_rank": 109,
"3b_value": 1.0,
"3b_rank": 114,
"hr_value": 22.0,
"hr_rank": 27,
"rbi_value": 55.0,
"rbi_rank": 66,
"tb_value": 174.0,
"tb_rank": 535,
"bb_value": 48.0,
"bb_rank": 49,
"so_value": 106.0,
"so_rank": 56,
"sb_value": 2.0,
"sb_rank": 248,
"obp_value": 0.3414634,
"obp_rank": "59",
"slg_value": 0.4846796,
"slg_rank": "24",
"ops_value": 0.826143,
"ops_rank": 83.0,
"war_value": 3.57,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 352.0,
"k_percent": 25.6,
"bb_percent": 11.8,
"woba": 0.357,
"xwoba": 0.345,
"xba": 0.237,
"xslg": 0.466,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 13.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 45.4,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.4,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.5,
"whiff_percent": 29.0,
"swing_percent": 45.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.0143,
"regression_edge": -0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2286,
"xba_edge": 0.0,
"xslg_edge": 1.3857,
"barrel_edge": 1.4889,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.0786,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.72,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.1667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "681624",
"player_name": "Andy Pages",
"offense_factor": 1.0451,
"quality_score": 0.6015,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "681624",
"espn_id": 42468,
"player_name": "Andy Pages",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 7,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 7,
"gp_value": 118.0,
"gp_rank": 11,
"ab_value": 455.0,
"ab_rank": 12,
"r_value": 66.0,
"r_rank": 33,
"h_value": 123.0,
"h_rank": 21,
"avg_value": 0.2703296,
"avg_rank": 46.0,
"2b_value": 24.0,
"2b_rank": 26,
"3b_value": 2.0,
"3b_rank": 56,
"hr_value": 19.0,
"hr_rank": 46,
"rbi_value": 76.0,
"rbi_rank": 8,
"tb_value": 208.0,
"tb_rank": 297,
"bb_value": 42.0,
"bb_rank": 82,
"so_value": 103.0,
"so_rank": 59,
"sb_value": 11.0,
"sb_rank": 62,
"obp_value": 0.3366141,
"obp_rank": "68",
"slg_value": 0.4571428,
"slg_rank": "44",
"ops_value": 0.7937569,
"ops_rank": 112.0,
"war_value": 5.15,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 432.0,
"k_percent": 20.2,
"bb_percent": 8.1,
"woba": 0.346,
"xwoba": 0.337,
"xba": 0.268,
"xslg": 0.436,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 42.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.1,
"whiff_percent": 22.8,
"swing_percent": 48.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.7413,
"regression_edge": -0.2571,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0,
"xba_edge": 0.8857,
"xslg_edge": 0.9571,
"barrel_edge": 0.1778,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7071,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.2,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.4667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "663656",
"player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
"offense_factor": 1.0393,
"quality_score": 0.5235,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "663656",
"espn_id": 34967,
"player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 224,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 224,
"gp_value": 112.0,
"gp_rank": 76,
"ab_value": 395.0,
"ab_rank": 86,
"r_value": 65.0,
"r_rank": 35,
"h_value": 96.0,
"h_rank": 98,
"avg_value": 0.2430379,
"avg_rank": 101.0,
"2b_value": 18.0,
"2b_rank": 95,
"3b_value": 3.0,
"3b_rank": 25,
"hr_value": 11.0,
"hr_rank": 138,
"rbi_value": 54.0,
"rbi_rank": 73,
"tb_value": 153.0,
"tb_rank": 657,
"bb_value": 57.0,
"bb_rank": 27,
"so_value": 85.0,
"so_rank": 109,
"sb_value": 7.0,
"sb_rank": 105,
"obp_value": 0.3398692,
"obp_rank": "61",
"slg_value": 0.3873417,
"slg_rank": "115",
"ops_value": 0.7272109,
"ops_rank": 54.0,
"war_value": 0.71,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 391.0,
"k_percent": 18.6,
"bb_percent": 12.3,
"woba": 0.324,
"xwoba": 0.336,
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"xslg": 0.396,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
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"exit_velocity_avg": 89.0,
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"whiff_percent": 22.1,
"swing_percent": 48.6
},
"components": {
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"xwoba_edge": 0.9714,
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"xslg_edge": 0.3857,
"barrel_edge": -0.0889,
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"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "518692",
"player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
"offense_factor": 1.1003,
"quality_score": 1.3368,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "518692",
"espn_id": 30193,
"player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 37,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 37,
"gp_value": 116.0,
"gp_rank": 30,
"ab_value": 439.0,
"ab_rank": 31,
"r_value": 58.0,
"r_rank": 65,
"h_value": 135.0,
"h_rank": 4,
"avg_value": 0.307517,
"avg_rank": 4.0,
"2b_value": 27.0,
"2b_rank": 7,
"3b_value": 1.0,
"3b_rank": 114,
"hr_value": 15.0,
"hr_rank": 86,
"rbi_value": 57.0,
"rbi_rank": 61,
"tb_value": 209.0,
"tb_rank": 489,
"bb_value": 51.0,
"bb_rank": 41,
"so_value": 78.0,
"so_rank": 141,
"sb_value": 5.0,
"sb_rank": 156,
"obp_value": 0.3802816,
"obp_rank": "10",
"slg_value": 0.476082,
"slg_rank": "30",
"ops_value": 0.8563636,
"ops_rank": 40.0,
"war_value": 3.15,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 426.0,
"k_percent": 15.8,
"bb_percent": 10.3,
"woba": 0.371,
"xwoba": 0.379,
"xba": 0.302,
"xslg": 0.494,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.5,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.1,
"whiff_percent": 21.5,
"swing_percent": 51.0
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.5172,
"regression_edge": 0.2286,
"xwoba_edge": 2.2,
"xba_edge": 1.8571,
"xslg_edge": 1.7857,
"barrel_edge": 0.5333,
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"offense_factor": 1.0154,
"quality_score": 0.2052,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "521692",
"espn_id": 31127,
"player_name": "Salvador Perez",
"team": "KC",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 574,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 574,
"gp_value": 111.0,
"gp_rank": 79,
"ab_value": 430.0,
"ab_rank": 49,
"r_value": 41.0,
"r_rank": 157,
"h_value": 92.0,
"h_rank": 107,
"avg_value": 0.2139534,
"avg_rank": 140.0,
"2b_value": 17.0,
"2b_rank": 109,
"3b_value": 1.0,
"3b_rank": 114,
"hr_value": 16.0,
"hr_rank": 68,
"rbi_value": 49.0,
"rbi_rank": 100,
"tb_value": 159.0,
"tb_rank": 648,
"bb_value": 18.0,
"bb_rank": 257,
"so_value": 94.0,
"so_rank": 80,
"sb_value": 0.0,
"sb_rank": 405,
"obp_value": 0.260215,
"obp_rank": "151",
"slg_value": 0.3697674,
"slg_rank": "129",
"ops_value": 0.6299824,
"ops_rank": 280.0,
"war_value": -0.53,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 398.0,
"k_percent": 20.2,
"bb_percent": 3.9,
"woba": 0.276,
"xwoba": 0.297,
"xba": 0.229,
"xslg": 0.409,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 41.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.8,
"launch_angle_avg": 15.9,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 56.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.1409,
"regression_edge": 0.6,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
"xba_edge": -0.2286,
"xslg_edge": 0.5714,
"barrel_edge": 0.6444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.5786,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.08,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.15,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "686681",
"player_name": "Michael Massey",
"offense_factor": 0.9985,
"quality_score": -0.02,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "686681",
"espn_id": 4109223,
"player_name": "Michael Massey",
"team": "KC",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 152,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 152,
"gp_value": 99.0,
"gp_rank": 146,
"ab_value": 305.0,
"ab_rank": 170,
"r_value": 40.0,
"r_rank": 163,
"h_value": 80.0,
"h_rank": 144,
"avg_value": 0.262295,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 20.0,
"2b_rank": 68,
"3b_value": 1.0,
"3b_rank": 114,
"hr_value": 9.0,
"hr_rank": 167,
"rbi_value": 39.0,
"rbi_rank": 162,
"tb_value": 129.0,
"tb_rank": 941,
"bb_value": 16.0,
"bb_rank": 288,
"so_value": 56.0,
"so_rank": 232,
"sb_value": 2.0,
"sb_rank": 248,
"obp_value": 0.2944785,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.4229508,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.7174293,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": 1.34,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 270.0,
"k_percent": 16.4,
"bb_percent": 4.9,
"woba": 0.31,
"xwoba": 0.295,
"xba": 0.241,
"xslg": 0.395,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.4,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.7,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.7,
"whiff_percent": 19.0,
"swing_percent": 52.5
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.0465,
"regression_edge": -0.4286,
"xwoba_edge": -0.2,
"xba_edge": 0.1143,
"xslg_edge": 0.3714,
"barrel_edge": -0.2,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.3643,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.44,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.1833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "670231",
"player_name": "John Rave",
"offense_factor": 1.0422,
"quality_score": 0.5622,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "670231",
"espn_id": 4418140,
"player_name": "John Rave",
"team": "KC",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 248,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 248,
"gp_value": 19.0,
"gp_rank": 485,
"ab_value": 42.0,
"ab_rank": 491,
"r_value": 7.0,
"r_rank": 449,
"h_value": 11.0,
"h_rank": 466,
"avg_value": 0.2619047,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 4.0,
"2b_rank": 382,
"3b_value": 1.0,
"3b_rank": 114,
"hr_value": 2.0,
"hr_rank": 381,
"rbi_value": 2.0,
"rbi_rank": 521,
"tb_value": 23.0,
"tb_rank": 2219,
"bb_value": 5.0,
"bb_rank": 444,
"so_value": 9.0,
"so_rank": 516,
"sb_value": 2.0,
"sb_rank": 248,
"obp_value": 0.3404255,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.547619,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.8880445,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.61,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 19.0,
"k_percent": 18.8,
"bb_percent": 10.4,
"woba": 0.378,
"xwoba": 0.376,
"xba": 0.278,
"xslg": 0.517,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 17.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 35.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 86.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.6,
"whiff_percent": 23.8,
"swing_percent": 44.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.4621,
"regression_edge": -0.0571,
"xwoba_edge": 2.1143,
"xba_edge": 1.1714,
"xslg_edge": 2.1143,
"barrel_edge": 2.4,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.3643,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.84,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.15,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "664728",
"player_name": "Kyle Isbel",
"offense_factor": 0.9645,
"quality_score": -0.4727,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "664728",
"espn_id": 41263,
"player_name": "Kyle Isbel",
"team": "KC",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 289,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 289,
"gp_value": 63.0,
"gp_rank": 306,
"ab_value": 184.0,
"ab_rank": 287,
"r_value": 18.0,
"r_rank": 336,
"h_value": 43.0,
"h_rank": 282,
"avg_value": 0.2336956,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 7.0,
"2b_rank": 297,
"3b_value": 1.0,
"3b_rank": 114,
"hr_value": 4.0,
"hr_rank": 294,
"rbi_value": 15.0,
"rbi_rank": 345,
"tb_value": 64.0,
"tb_rank": 1689,
"bb_value": 11.0,
"bb_rank": 349,
"so_value": 43.0,
"so_rank": 292,
"sb_value": 5.0,
"sb_rank": 156,
"obp_value": 0.285,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.347826,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.632826,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.41,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 175.0,
"k_percent": 21.4,
"bb_percent": 5.5,
"woba": 0.275,
"xwoba": 0.27,
"xba": 0.234,
"xslg": 0.316,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 2.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.4,
"whiff_percent": 19.1,
"swing_percent": 47.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.6677,
"regression_edge": -0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": -0.9143,
"xba_edge": -0.0857,
"xslg_edge": -0.7571,
"barrel_edge": -0.8889,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.55,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.0,
"sweet_spot_edge": -1.0333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away KC | True | 25 | -0.1152 | 1 | 1.0098 | 0.9577 | 0.9620 | 0.9905 | neutral | 0.3150 | 0.3030 | 19.10 | 7 | 21.20 | 6.60 | 37 | |
| Home LAD | True | 648 | 0.0293 | 0.4500 | 0.9975 | 1.0031 | 1 | 0.9985 | neutral | 0.3070 | 0.3080 | 23.10 | 8.90 | 25.80 | 7.10 | 37.70 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away KC | True | None | 101 | 87.09 | 1992 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1578 | |
| Home LAD | False | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 0.9989 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 1.0098 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | 0.1445 |
{
"applied": true,
"home_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605483",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 0.0,
"k_percent": 23.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.308,
"xwoba": 0.307,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.8,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0772,
"command_and_miss": 0.0729,
"regression_edge": 0.0286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
"barrel_edge": 0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0429,
"bb_edge": 0.0,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "605483",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.0293,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0031,
"walk_factor": 1.0,
"homer_factor": 0.9985,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "605483",
"espn_id": 33748,
"player_name": "Blake Snell",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 648,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 648,
"gp_value": 1.0,
"gp_rank": 733,
"gs_value": 1.0,
"gs_rank": 279,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 12.0,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 0.0,
"w_rank": 476,
"l_value": 1.0,
"l_rank": 381,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 3.0,
"ip_rank": 710,
"h_value": 6.0,
"h_rank": 641,
"er_value": 4.0,
"er_rank": 625,
"hr_value": 0.0,
"hr_rank": 690,
"bb_value": 2.0,
"bb_rank": 663,
"k_value": 5.0,
"k_rank": 625,
"k_per_9_value": 15.0,
"k_per_9_rank": 23,
"whip_value": 2.6666,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": -0.24,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "608379",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 482.0,
"k_percent": 19.1,
"bb_percent": 7.0,
"woba": 0.303,
"xwoba": 0.315,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
"avg_best_speed": 77.7796,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.6836,
"whiff_percent": 21.2,
"swing_percent": 48.2
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0264,
"command_and_miss": -0.3193,
"regression_edge": -0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1143,
"barrel_edge": 0.1111,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.1,
"whiff_edge": -0.6143,
"bb_edge": 0.475,
"pitch_design_score": -0.1578
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "608379",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 101,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 101,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 87.09423182748749,
"release_spin_rate": 1991.559334226208,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 101,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 87.09423182748749,
"release_spin_rate": 1991.559334226208,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 87.0942,
"release_spin_rate": 1991.5593,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.1578,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.127,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.1152,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0098,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9577,
"walk_factor": 0.962,
"homer_factor": 0.9905,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.012,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "608379",
"espn_id": 32640,
"player_name": "Michael Wacha",
"team": "KC",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 25,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 25,
"gp_value": 23.0,
"gp_rank": 258,
"gs_value": 23.0,
"gs_rank": 20,
"qs_value": 15.0,
"qs_rank": 4,
"era_value": 3.4375,
"era_rank": 23.0,
"w_value": 5.0,
"w_rank": 108,
"l_value": 8.0,
"l_rank": 30,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 144.0,
"ip_rank": 5,
"h_value": 125.0,
"h_rank": 20,
"er_value": 55.0,
"er_rank": 42,
"hr_value": 17.0,
"hr_rank": 31,
"bb_value": 41.0,
"bb_rank": 46,
"k_value": 112.0,
"k_rank": 45,
"k_per_9_value": 7.0,
"k_per_9_rank": 243,
"whip_value": 1.1527,
"whip_rank": 25.0,
"war_value": 2.84,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 0.9989,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 1.0098,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": 0.1445
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 3.7896,
"home_runs": 3.6913
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 3.7853,
"home_runs": 3.7274,
"home_win_probability": 0.4977
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away KC | 3-7 | 0.300 | 3.80 | 5.50 | -17 | 2L | average | weak |
| Home LAD | 2-8 | 0.200 | 3.50 | 5.60 | -21 | 1W | average | weak |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away KC | 49-70 | 0.412 | -110 | -0.924 | True |
| Home LAD | 70-48 | 0.593 | 138 | 1.169 | True |
| Signal | - | - | 2.094 | 1.482 | applied=True |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | KC @ LAD | 5 - 6 | LAD | 1 | close |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target KC | - | - | 4 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target LAD | - | - | 5 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized KC | 33 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| Player finalized LAD | 35 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| Player model fractional KC | 31.01 | 6.87 | 3.78 | 1.00 | 3.05 | 2.40 | 6.68 |
| Player model fractional LAD | 32.41 | 7.84 | 4.32 | 1.15 | 4.42 | 3.08 | 6.17 |
| Simulation box KC | 39 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Simulation box LAD | 33 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away KC | Starter | Michael Wacha | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 3.60 | 1.18 | True |
| Away KC | Middle Reliever | Steven Cruz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.29 | 1.01 | True |
| Away KC | Middle Reliever | John Schreiber | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4.32 | 1.79 | True |
| Away KC | Middle Reliever | Alex Lange | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.61 | 1.66 | True |
| Home LAD | Starter | Blake Snell | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5.74 | 1.56 | True |
| Home LAD | Middle Reliever | Alex Vesia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.22 | 1.24 | True |
| Home LAD | Middle Reliever | Edwin Díaz | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.77 | 1.59 | True |
| Home LAD | Middle Reliever | Jack Dreyer | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.32 | 1.28 | True |
| Home LAD | Middle Reliever | Tanner Scott | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.07 | 1.53 | True |
| Home LAD | Middle Reliever | Evan Phillips | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.77 | 1.19 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home | LAD | batter | C | Ben Rortvedt | better | 9 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4 | predicted_RBI | 3.8300 | boost | better |
| away | KC | batter | 3B | Nick Loftin | better | 11 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | predicted_H | 2.2800 | boost | better |
| away | KC | batter | RF | John Rave | worse | 12 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 8 | predicted_H | 1.7000 | boost | better |
| home | LAD | batter | RF | Kyle Tucker | worse | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | predicted_H | 1.6800 | boost | better |
| away | KC | batter | 2B | Michael Massey | worse | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | predicted_RBI | 1.6600 | boost | better |
| away | KC | batter | 1B | Jac Caglianone | better | 11 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 2 | predicted_RBI | 1.5270 | boost | better |
| away | KC | batter | LF | Tyler Tolbert | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 10 | predicted_AB | 1.3940 | boost | better |
| home | LAD | batter | CF | Andy Pages | worse | 11 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 9 | predicted_H | -1.3800 | deboost | worse |
| home | LAD | pitcher | Starter | Blake Snell | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -1.3333 | deboost | worse |
| home | LAD | batter | SS | Mookie Betts | better | 9 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 2 | predicted_AB | -1.2000 | deboost | worse |
| away | KC | batter | C | Carter Jensen | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | predicted_SO | -1.1830 | deboost | better |
| away | KC | batter | CF | Kyle Isbel | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 | predicted_AB | 1.0160 | boost | better |
| home | LAD | batter | 3B | Max Muncy | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 8 | predicted_SO | 1.0090 | boost | worse |
| home | LAD | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Tanner Scott | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 1.0000 | boost | better |
| away | KC | batter | SS | Bobby Witt Jr. | worse | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | predicted_H | 0.9000 | boost | better |
| home | LAD | batter | DH | Shohei Ohtani | neutral | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | predicted_H | 0.8800 | boost | better |
| away | KC | batter | DH | Salvador Perez | worse | 10 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 8 | predicted_SO | -0.8450 | deboost | better |
| home | LAD | batter | 2B | Tommy Edman | worse | 12 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 9 | predicted_H | -0.8200 | deboost | worse |
| home | LAD | batter | 1B | Freddie Freeman | deboosted | 10 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | predicted_2B | 0.7650 | boost | better |
| home | LAD | batter | LF | Alex Call | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | predicted_BB | 0.6720 | boost | better |
| away | KC | pitcher | Middle Reliever | John Schreiber | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.3333 | boost | better |
| home | LAD | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Evan Phillips | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.3333 | boost | better |
| away | KC | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Alex Lange | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.1000 | deboost | worse |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Michael Wacha |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.1152 |
| ESPN Rank | 25 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.1578 |
| Avg Velo | 87.0942 |
| Avg Spin | 1991.5593 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 6 |
| Pre ER | 4 |
| Pre H | 7 |
| Pre BB | 2 |
| Pre SO | 3 |
| Season ERA | 3.4375 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1528 |
| Role Avg IP | 6.2610 |
| Recent Avg IP | 5.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 5.2000 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "KC",
"games": 128,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.3906,
"runs_scored": 519.0,
"runs_allowed": 647.0,
"run_differential": -128.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0547,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.0547,
"offense_index": 0.9027,
"defense_index": 0.8886,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 3,
"losses": 7,
"win_pct": 0.3,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
"run_differential": -17.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2854
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 126,
"wins": 74,
"losses": 52,
"win_pct": 0.5873,
"runs_scored": 631.0,
"runs_allowed": 482.0,
"run_differential": 149.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1825,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0079,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8254,
"offense_index": 1.115,
"defense_index": 1.1741,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
"run_differential": -21.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.114
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.3994,
"offense_edge": -0.0973,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.115,
"defense_strength": -0.1114,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1741,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9761,
"run_prevention": 1.0495,
"strikeout": 0.9788
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "608379",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "608379",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 482.0,
"k_percent": 19.1,
"bb_percent": 7.0,
"woba": 0.303,
"xwoba": 0.315,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
"avg_best_speed": 77.7796,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.6836,
"whiff_percent": 21.2,
"swing_percent": 48.2
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0264,
"command_and_miss": -0.3193,
"regression_edge": -0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1143,
"barrel_edge": 0.1111,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.1,
"whiff_edge": -0.6143,
"bb_edge": 0.475,
"pitch_design_score": -0.1578
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "608379",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 101,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 101,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 87.09423182748749,
"release_spin_rate": 1991.559334226208,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 101,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 87.09423182748749,
"release_spin_rate": 1991.559334226208,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 87.0942,
"release_spin_rate": 1991.5593,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.1578,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.127,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.1152,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0098,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9577,
"walk_factor": 0.962,
"homer_factor": 0.9905,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.012,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "608379",
"espn_id": 32640,
"player_name": "Michael Wacha",
"team": "KC",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 25,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 25,
"gp_value": 23.0,
"gp_rank": 258,
"gs_value": 23.0,
"gs_rank": 20,
"qs_value": 15.0,
"qs_rank": 4,
"era_value": 3.4375,
"era_rank": 23.0,
"w_value": 5.0,
"w_rank": 108,
"l_value": 8.0,
"l_rank": 30,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 144.0,
"ip_rank": 5,
"h_value": 125.0,
"h_rank": 20,
"er_value": 55.0,
"er_rank": 42,
"hr_value": 17.0,
"hr_rank": 31,
"bb_value": 41.0,
"bb_rank": 46,
"k_value": 112.0,
"k_rank": 45,
"k_per_9_value": 7.0,
"k_per_9_rank": 243,
"whip_value": 1.1527,
"whip_rank": 25.0,
"war_value": 2.84,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0098,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 1.0098,
"adjusted": 5
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.962,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9905,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 4.0,
"factor": 0.9577,
"adjusted": 4
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 63.0,
"ER": 24,
"H": 59,
"BB": 15,
"SO": 45,
"HR": 8,
"ERA": 3.4285714285714284,
"WHIP": 1.1746031746031746,
"K9": 6.428571428571429,
"HR9": 1.1428571428571428,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 6,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 1,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-06T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "608379",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 101,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 101,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 87.09423182748749,
"release_spin_rate": 1991.559334226208,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 101,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 87.09423182748749,
"release_spin_rate": 1991.559334226208,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 87.0942,
"release_spin_rate": 1991.5593,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.1578,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.127,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 23.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8214,
"prior_weight": 0.1786
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "608379",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 23,
"reference_playing_time": 6.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 29.1,
"ER": 11.0,
"R": 13.0,
"H": 23.0,
"BB": 10.0,
"SO": 21.0,
"HR": 4.0,
"BF": 121.0,
"Pitches": 489.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 6.0,
"ER": 2.2,
"R": 2.6,
"H": 4.6,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 4.2,
"HR": 0.8,
"BF": 24.2,
"Pitches": 97.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.375,
"WHIP": 1.125,
"ER_per_IP": 0.375,
"H_per_IP": 0.78409,
"BB_per_IP": 0.34091,
"SO_per_IP": 0.71591,
"HR_per_IP": 0.13636
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 63.0,
"ER": 24.0,
"R": 26.0,
"H": 59.0,
"BB": 15.0,
"SO": 45.0,
"HR": 8.0,
"BF": 258.0,
"Pitches": 990.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 6.1,
"ER": 2.4,
"R": 2.6,
"H": 5.9,
"BB": 1.5,
"SO": 4.5,
"HR": 0.8,
"BF": 25.8,
"Pitches": 99.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.4286,
"WHIP": 1.1746,
"ER_per_IP": 0.38095,
"H_per_IP": 0.93651,
"BB_per_IP": 0.2381,
"SO_per_IP": 0.71429,
"HR_per_IP": 0.12698
}
},
"season": {
"games": 23,
"totals": {
"IP": 144.0,
"ER": 55.0,
"R": 59.0,
"H": 125.0,
"BB": 41.0,
"SO": 112.0,
"HR": 17.0,
"BF": 585.0,
"Pitches": 2163.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 6.1,
"ER": 2.3913,
"R": 2.5652,
"H": 5.4348,
"BB": 1.7826,
"SO": 4.8696,
"HR": 0.7391,
"BF": 25.4348,
"Pitches": 94.0435
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.4375,
"WHIP": 1.1528,
"ER_per_IP": 0.38194,
"H_per_IP": 0.86806,
"BB_per_IP": 0.28472,
"SO_per_IP": 0.77778,
"HR_per_IP": 0.11806
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.46,
"predicted_H": 5.384,
"predicted_BB": 1.879,
"predicted_SO": 4.73,
"predicted_HR": 0.817,
"predicted_ERA": 3.5993,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.181
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4255,
"form_weight": 0.5745,
"form_reliability": 0.8214,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 23.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8214,
"prior_weight": 0.1786
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 6.0,
"form": 6.0,
"final": 6.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 4.0,
"form": 2.46,
"final": 3.1152,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 7.0,
"form": 5.384,
"final": 6.0715,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.879,
"final": 1.9305,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 4.73,
"final": 3.994,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.817,
"final": 1.3203,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.5993,
"final": 3.5993,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.181,
"final": 1.181,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Steven Cruz |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0825 |
| ESPN Rank | 317 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 4.1860 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2093 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "KC",
"games": 128,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.3906,
"runs_scored": 519.0,
"runs_allowed": 647.0,
"run_differential": -128.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0547,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.0547,
"offense_index": 0.9027,
"defense_index": 0.8886,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 3,
"losses": 7,
"win_pct": 0.3,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
"run_differential": -17.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2854
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 126,
"wins": 74,
"losses": 52,
"win_pct": 0.5873,
"runs_scored": 631.0,
"runs_allowed": 482.0,
"run_differential": 149.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1825,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0079,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8254,
"offense_index": 1.115,
"defense_index": 1.1741,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
"run_differential": -21.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.114
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.3994,
"offense_edge": -0.0973,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.115,
"defense_strength": -0.1114,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1741,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9761,
"run_prevention": 1.0495,
"strikeout": 0.9788
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "674444",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "674444",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 145.0,
"k_percent": 27.5,
"bb_percent": 9.6,
"woba": 0.325,
"xwoba": 0.303,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 11.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
"avg_best_speed": 78.851,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.274,
"whiff_percent": 30.0,
"swing_percent": 52.6
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": 0.5307,
"regression_edge": 0.6286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.2286,
"barrel_edge": -1.0222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.3714,
"whiff_edge": 0.6429,
"bb_edge": -0.175,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "674444",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.0825,
"sample_weight": 0.58,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.993,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0325,
"walk_factor": 1.0081,
"homer_factor": 1.0348,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.022,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "674444",
"espn_id": 5002931,
"player_name": "Steven Cruz",
"team": "KC",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 317,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 317,
"gp_value": 41.0,
"gp_rank": 110,
"gs_value": 2.0,
"gs_rank": 253,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 4.186,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 2.0,
"w_rank": 281,
"l_value": 3.0,
"l_rank": 192,
"sv_value": 3.0,
"sv_rank": 57,
"hld_value": 4.0,
"hld_rank": 168,
"ip_value": 43.0,
"ip_rank": 291,
"h_value": 35.0,
"h_rank": 301,
"er_value": 20.0,
"er_rank": 263,
"hr_value": 11.0,
"hr_rank": 117,
"bb_value": 17.0,
"bb_rank": 279,
"k_value": 49.0,
"k_rank": 236,
"k_per_9_value": 10.255815,
"k_per_9_rank": 21,
"whip_value": 1.2093,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.22,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9959,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9959,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0047,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 1.0202,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 1.0189,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 3,
"H": 8,
"BB": 1,
"SO": 8,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 2.7,
"WHIP": 0.9,
"K9": 7.2,
"HR9": 1.8,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-08T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "674444",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 8.599,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6323,
"prior_weight": 0.3677
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "674444",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 41,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.0,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 3.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 18.0,
"Pitches": 71.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 3.6,
"Pitches": 14.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.8,
"WHIP": 0.6,
"ER_per_IP": 0.2,
"H_per_IP": 0.6,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 0.6,
"HR_per_IP": 0.2
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 8.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 8.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 39.0,
"Pitches": 157.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.3,
"R": 0.3,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.1,
"SO": 0.8,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 3.9,
"Pitches": 15.7
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.7,
"WHIP": 0.9,
"ER_per_IP": 0.3,
"H_per_IP": 0.8,
"BB_per_IP": 0.1,
"SO_per_IP": 0.8,
"HR_per_IP": 0.2
}
},
"season": {
"games": 41,
"totals": {
"IP": 43.0,
"ER": 20.0,
"R": 21.0,
"H": 35.0,
"BB": 17.0,
"SO": 49.0,
"HR": 11.0,
"BF": 178.0,
"Pitches": 685.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4878,
"R": 0.5122,
"H": 0.8537,
"BB": 0.4146,
"SO": 1.1951,
"HR": 0.2683,
"BF": 4.3415,
"Pitches": 16.7073
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.186,
"WHIP": 1.2093,
"ER_per_IP": 0.46512,
"H_per_IP": 0.81395,
"BB_per_IP": 0.39535,
"SO_per_IP": 1.13953,
"HR_per_IP": 0.25581
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.365,
"predicted_H": 0.808,
"predicted_BB": 0.205,
"predicted_SO": 0.844,
"predicted_HR": 0.188,
"predicted_ERA": 3.2889,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.0129
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5054,
"form_weight": 0.4946,
"form_reliability": 0.6323,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 8.599,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6323,
"prior_weight": 0.3677
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.365,
"final": 0.1805,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.808,
"final": 0.3997,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.205,
"final": 0.1014,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.844,
"final": 0.9228,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.188,
"final": 0.093,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.2889,
"final": 3.2889,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.0129,
"final": 1.0129,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | John Schreiber |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.2969 |
| ESPN Rank | 330 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0273 |
| Avg Velo | 89.4250 |
| Avg Spin | 2311.4256 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 3.7674 |
| Season WHIP | 1.4186 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "KC",
"games": 128,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.3906,
"runs_scored": 519.0,
"runs_allowed": 647.0,
"run_differential": -128.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0547,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.0547,
"offense_index": 0.9027,
"defense_index": 0.8886,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 3,
"losses": 7,
"win_pct": 0.3,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
"run_differential": -17.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2854
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 126,
"wins": 74,
"losses": 52,
"win_pct": 0.5873,
"runs_scored": 631.0,
"runs_allowed": 482.0,
"run_differential": 149.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1825,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0079,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8254,
"offense_index": 1.115,
"defense_index": 1.1741,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
"run_differential": -21.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.114
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.3994,
"offense_edge": -0.0973,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.115,
"defense_strength": -0.1114,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1741,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9761,
"run_prevention": 1.0495,
"strikeout": 0.9788
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "670167",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "670167",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 159.0,
"k_percent": 18.4,
"bb_percent": 11.2,
"woba": 0.331,
"xwoba": 0.338,
"sweet_spot_percent": 39.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.2,
"avg_best_speed": 78.9686,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.6473,
"whiff_percent": 22.4,
"swing_percent": 42.7
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.5552,
"command_and_miss": -0.5143,
"regression_edge": -0.2,
"xwoba_edge": -0.7714,
"barrel_edge": -0.0444,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.7857,
"whiff_edge": -0.4429,
"bb_edge": -0.575,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0273
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "670167",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 20,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 20,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.42496509236226,
"release_spin_rate": 2311.4255820869707,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 20,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.42496509236226,
"release_spin_rate": 2311.4255820869707,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.425,
"release_spin_rate": 2311.4256,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0273,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.1947,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.2969,
"sample_weight": 0.636,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0252,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9749,
"walk_factor": 1.0293,
"homer_factor": 1.037,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "670167",
"espn_id": 39949,
"player_name": "John Schreiber",
"team": "KC",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 330,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 330,
"gp_value": 48.0,
"gp_rank": 52,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 3.7674,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 0.0,
"w_rank": 476,
"l_value": 3.0,
"l_rank": 192,
"sv_value": 1.0,
"sv_rank": 115,
"hld_value": 10.0,
"hld_rank": 59,
"ip_value": 43.0,
"ip_rank": 291,
"h_value": 40.0,
"h_rank": 261,
"er_value": 18.0,
"er_rank": 295,
"hr_value": 7.0,
"hr_rank": 192,
"bb_value": 21.0,
"bb_rank": 212,
"k_value": 33.0,
"k_rank": 345,
"k_per_9_value": 6.9069767,
"k_per_9_rank": 32,
"whip_value": 1.4186,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.18,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.016,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.016,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0186,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0235,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.984,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 8.0,
"ER": 6,
"H": 9,
"BB": 9,
"SO": 6,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 6.75,
"WHIP": 2.25,
"K9": 6.75,
"HR9": 1.125,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "670167",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 20,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 20,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.42496509236226,
"release_spin_rate": 2311.4255820869707,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 20,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.42496509236226,
"release_spin_rate": 2311.4255820869707,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.425,
"release_spin_rate": 2311.4256,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
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},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
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"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
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},
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}
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}
}
},
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}
}{
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}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Alex Lange |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.3122 |
| ESPN Rank | 787 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.1072 |
| Avg Velo | 91.8265 |
| Avg Spin | 2154.0700 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 0 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 6.1714 |
| Season WHIP | 1.5643 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "KC",
"games": 128,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.3906,
"runs_scored": 519.0,
"runs_allowed": 647.0,
"run_differential": -128.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0547,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.0547,
"offense_index": 0.9027,
"defense_index": 0.8886,
"current_streak": "L2",
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"wins": 3,
"losses": 7,
"win_pct": 0.3,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
"run_differential": -17.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2854
},
"opponent": {
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"wins": 74,
"losses": 52,
"win_pct": 0.5873,
"runs_scored": 631.0,
"runs_allowed": 482.0,
"run_differential": 149.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1825,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0079,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8254,
"offense_index": 1.115,
"defense_index": 1.1741,
"current_streak": "W1",
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"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
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"run_differential": -21.0
},
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},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": -0.0973,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.115,
"defense_strength": -0.1114,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1741,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9761,
"run_prevention": 1.0495,
"strikeout": 0.9788
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "656638",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656638",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 23.3,
"bb_percent": 12.6,
"woba": 0.347,
"xwoba": 0.339,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 42.5,
"avg_best_speed": 79.9428,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.8263,
"whiff_percent": 27.0,
"swing_percent": 46.8
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.8122,
"command_and_miss": -0.0393,
"regression_edge": 0.2286,
"xwoba_edge": -0.8,
"barrel_edge": -1.2222,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.6857,
"whiff_edge": 0.2143,
"bb_edge": -0.925,
"pitch_design_score": 0.1072
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656638",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 15,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 15,
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"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
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{
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"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2154.07,
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"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"velocity_edge": 0.7659,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.3122,
"sample_weight": 0.72,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0265,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0107,
"walk_factor": 1.0533,
"homer_factor": 1.1074,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.008,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "656638",
"espn_id": 40976,
"player_name": "Alex Lange",
"team": "KC",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 787,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
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"gp_value": 45.0,
"gp_rank": 81,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 6.1714,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 1.0,
"w_rank": 368,
"l_value": 7.0,
"l_rank": 49,
"sv_value": 10.0,
"sv_rank": 26,
"hld_value": 2.0,
"hld_rank": 205,
"ip_value": 46.2,
"ip_rank": 260,
"h_value": 47.0,
"h_rank": 206,
"er_value": 32.0,
"er_rank": 147,
"hr_value": 5.0,
"hr_rank": 273,
"bb_value": 26.0,
"bb_rank": 155,
"k_value": 49.0,
"k_rank": 236,
"k_per_9_value": 9.450001,
"k_per_9_rank": 24,
"whip_value": 1.5642,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": -1.04,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0191,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0191,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0384,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0773,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0077,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 12,
"H": 14,
"BB": 5,
"SO": 12,
"HR": 3,
"ERA": 10.451612903225808,
"WHIP": 1.838709677419355,
"K9": 10.451612903225808,
"HR9": 2.612903225806452,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656638",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 15,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 15,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.82652459981787,
"release_spin_rate": 2154.070035323872,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 15,
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"release_pos_z": null,
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"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2154.07,
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"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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},
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"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
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"weights": {
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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}
},
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}{
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"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.882,
"final": 0.4433,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.141,
"final": 0.0709,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 6.6122,
"final": 6.6122,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.6565,
"final": 1.6565,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.191 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.197 | 0.000 | 0.803 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.018 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.021 | 0.000 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.591 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.763 | 4.000 | 0.237 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.263 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.257 | 0.500 | 0.243 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.236 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.282 | 0.000 | -0.282 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.003 | 0.000 | -0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.945 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.968 | 2.000 | 1.032 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.191 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.192 | 1.000 | -0.192 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.317 | 0.500 | 0.083 | -0.100 |
| predicted_R | 0.473 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.547 | 1.000 | 0.453 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.473 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.461 | 3.000 | 1.539 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.486 | 0.750 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.474 | 1.250 | 0.276 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 1.036 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.139 | 1.000 | -1.139 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 8 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 9 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.4730 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.5270, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.0360 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0360, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.4730 -> 0.6289 (boost 0.1559, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0360 -> 0.9434 (deboost -0.0926, better) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5565 -> 0.5381 (deboost -0.0184, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5890 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4110, better) | predicted_2B: 0.2375 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2375, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.061 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4551 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4551, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5381 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.2881, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.5381 (boost 0.2881, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "695506",
"player_name": "Jac Caglianone",
"position": "1B",
"team": "KC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.191,
"predicted_3B": 0.018,
"predicted_AB": 3.591,
"predicted_AVG": 0.263,
"predicted_BB": 0.236,
"predicted_H": 0.945,
"predicted_HR": 0.191,
"predicted_OBP": 0.309,
"predicted_R": 0.473,
"predicted_RBI": 0.473,
"predicted_SLG": 0.486,
"predicted_SO": 1.036
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2375,
"predicted_3B": 0.0154,
"predicted_AB": 3.6629,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2907,
"predicted_BB": 0.2015,
"predicted_H": 1.0678,
"predicted_HBP": 0.023,
"predicted_HR": 0.2362,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3309,
"predicted_R": 0.4859,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6289,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5565,
"predicted_SO": 0.9434
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.191,
"after": 0.2375,
"delta": 0.0465,
"percent_delta": 0.2435,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.018,
"after": 0.0154,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.1444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.591,
"after": 3.6629,
"delta": 0.0719,
"percent_delta": 0.02,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.263,
"after": 0.2907,
"delta": 0.0277,
"percent_delta": 0.1053,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.236,
"after": 0.2015,
"delta": -0.0345,
"percent_delta": -0.1462,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.945,
"after": 1.0678,
"delta": 0.1228,
"percent_delta": 0.1299,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.191,
"after": 0.2362,
"delta": 0.0452,
"percent_delta": 0.2366,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.309,
"after": 0.3309,
"delta": 0.0219,
"percent_delta": 0.0709,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.473,
"after": 0.4859,
"delta": 0.0129,
"percent_delta": 0.0273,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.473,
"after": 0.6289,
"delta": 0.1559,
"percent_delta": 0.3296,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.486,
"after": 0.5565,
"delta": 0.0705,
"percent_delta": 0.1451,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.036,
"after": 0.9434,
"delta": -0.0926,
"percent_delta": -0.0894,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 7,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.473,
"after": 0.6289,
"delta": 0.1559,
"percent_delta": 0.3296,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.036,
"after": 0.9434,
"delta": -0.0926,
"percent_delta": -0.0894,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 110
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2375,
"predicted_3B": 0.0154,
"predicted_AB": 3.6629,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2808,
"predicted_BB": 0.1983,
"predicted_H": 1.0287,
"predicted_HBP": 0.023,
"predicted_HR": 0.2246,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3178,
"predicted_R": 0.4551,
"predicted_RBI": 0.589,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5381,
"predicted_SO": 0.9584
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2375,
"after": 0.2375,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0154,
"after": 0.0154,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6629,
"after": 3.6629,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2907,
"after": 0.2808,
"delta": -0.0099,
"percent_delta": -0.0341,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2015,
"after": 0.1983,
"delta": -0.0032,
"percent_delta": -0.0159,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0678,
"after": 1.0287,
"delta": -0.0391,
"percent_delta": -0.0366,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.023,
"after": 0.023,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2362,
"after": 0.2246,
"delta": -0.0116,
"percent_delta": -0.0491,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3309,
"after": 0.3178,
"delta": -0.0131,
"percent_delta": -0.0396,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4859,
"after": 0.4551,
"delta": -0.0308,
"percent_delta": -0.0634,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6289,
"after": 0.589,
"delta": -0.0399,
"percent_delta": -0.0634,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5565,
"after": 0.5381,
"delta": -0.0184,
"percent_delta": -0.0331,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9434,
"after": 0.9584,
"delta": 0.015,
"percent_delta": 0.0159,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5565,
"after": 0.5381,
"delta": -0.0184,
"percent_delta": -0.0331,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.061",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2375,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2375,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0154,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0154,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6629,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.3371,
"percent_delta": 0.092,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1983,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1983,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0287,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0287,
"percent_delta": -0.0279,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.023,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.023,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2246,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2246,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.589,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.411,
"percent_delta": 0.6978,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9584,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0416,
"percent_delta": 0.0434,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.589,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.411,
"percent_delta": 0.6978,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2375,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2375,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4551,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4551,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4551,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4551,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.25,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.25,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2808,
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"delta": -0.0308,
"percent_delta": -0.1097,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": -0.2881,
"percent_delta": -0.5354,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
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"biggest_boost": null,
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"direction": "deboost",
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 1.0,
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 1.0,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "higher",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2808,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3178,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5381,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0,
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"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3178,
"delta": 0.0678,
"percent_delta": 0.2711,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.5381,
"delta": 0.2881,
"percent_delta": 1.1522,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.2881,
"percent_delta": 1.1522,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.191,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.809,
"percent_delta": 4.2356,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": -0.018,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 0.409,
"percent_delta": 0.1139,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0178,
"percent_delta": 0.0677,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"delta": -0.236,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": 1.055,
"percent_delta": 1.1164,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.191,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.191,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.309,
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"delta": 0.0088,
"percent_delta": 0.0285,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.473,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.527,
"percent_delta": 1.1142,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.473,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.527,
"percent_delta": 3.2283,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.486,
"after": 0.5381,
"delta": 0.0521,
"percent_delta": 0.1072,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.036,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.036,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 8,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 9,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.527,
"percent_delta": 3.2283,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.036,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.191 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.018 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.591 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.263 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.236 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.945 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.191 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.473 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.473 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.486 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.036 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.237 | 0.046 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.663 | 0.072 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.291 | 0.028 |
| predicted_BB | 0.202 | -0.034 |
| predicted_H | 1.068 | 0.123 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.023 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.236 | 0.045 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.331 | 0.022 |
| predicted_R | 0.486 | 0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.629 | 0.156 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.556 | 0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 0.943 | -0.093 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.237 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.663 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.281 | -0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.198 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 1.029 | -0.039 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.225 | -0.012 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | -0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.455 | -0.031 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.589 | -0.040 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.538 | -0.018 |
| predicted_SO | 0.958 | 0.015 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.061
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.237 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.337 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.031 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.198 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.029 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.225 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.068 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.455 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.411 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.288 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.042 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 10.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.5000 | 0.5000 | 1.1000 | 0.5000 | 0.1500 | 0.4500 | 0.0000 | 0.1000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 40.000 | 15.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 12.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 0.3750 | 0.3750 | 0.7750 | 0.3750 | 0.1000 | 0.3000 | 0.0000 | 0.1250 |
| season | 0.60 | 110 | - | 395.000 | 104.000 | 21.000 | 2.000 | 21.000 | 52.000 | 52.000 | 26.000 | 114.000 | 0.2633 | 0.3146 | 0.4861 | 0.2633 | 0.0532 | 0.1316 | 0.0658 | 0.2886 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2990 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7580 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3274 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1560 |
| predicted_H | 1.2300 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0230 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2960 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3599 |
| predicted_R | 0.5030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.8350 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.6497 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8210 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1910 | 0.2990 | 0.2375 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0180 | 0.0120 | 0.0154 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5910 | 3.7580 | 3.6629 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2630 | 0.3274 | 0.2907 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2360 | 0.1560 | 0.2015 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9450 | 1.2300 | 1.0678 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0230 | 0.0230 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1910 | 0.2960 | 0.2362 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3090 | 0.3599 | 0.3309 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4730 | 0.5030 | 0.4859 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4730 | 0.8350 | 0.6289 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4860 | 0.6497 | 0.5565 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0360 | 0.8210 | 0.9434 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 380 |
| Season rows before report date | 380 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 110 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 1 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.263 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 3 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 5 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 695506 |
| playerID | 695506 |
| playerName | Jac Caglianone |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | KC |
| teamID | 12 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.344 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.36 |
| sl_xba | 0.277 |
| sl_xslg | 0.51 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 14.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 55.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 93.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 7.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.250 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.253 | 1.000 | 0.747 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 | -0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.062 | 5.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.335 | 2.000 | 1.665 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | 0.600 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.264 | 1.000 | 0.336 | -0.400 |
| predicted_BB | 0.338 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.367 | 1.000 | -0.367 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.720 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.882 | 2.000 | 2.118 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.082 | 0.000 | -0.082 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.361 | 0.600 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.348 | 1.000 | 0.252 | -0.400 |
| predicted_R | 0.400 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.514 | 1.000 | 0.486 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.555 | 0.000 | 0.445 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.401 | 0.800 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.426 | 1.500 | 0.374 | -0.700 |
| predicted_SO | 0.513 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.486 | 0.000 | -0.486 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.7200 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.2800, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.5130 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5130, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | predicted_SO: 0.5130 -> 0.5670 (boost 0.0540, worse) | predicted_OBP: 0.3610 -> 0.3516 (deboost -0.0094, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3516 -> 0.3071 (deboost -0.0445, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.5760 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4240, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.3422 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3422, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.015 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3474 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3474, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2288 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1042, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3682 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0352, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.3682 (boost 0.0352, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2288 (deboost -0.1042, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "679845",
"player_name": "Nick Loftin",
"position": "3B",
"team": "KC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_AB": 3.062,
"predicted_AVG": 0.246,
"predicted_BB": 0.338,
"predicted_H": 0.72,
"predicted_HR": 0.05,
"predicted_OBP": 0.361,
"predicted_R": 0.4,
"predicted_RBI": 0.31,
"predicted_SLG": 0.401,
"predicted_SO": 0.513
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2664,
"predicted_3B": 0.0109,
"predicted_AB": 3.0295,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2438,
"predicted_BB": 0.3477,
"predicted_H": 0.7196,
"predicted_HBP": 0.097,
"predicted_HR": 0.047,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3516,
"predicted_R": 0.3709,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2923,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3947,
"predicted_SO": 0.567
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2664,
"delta": 0.0164,
"percent_delta": 0.0656,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0109,
"delta": -0.0021,
"percent_delta": -0.1615,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 3.0295,
"delta": -0.0325,
"percent_delta": -0.0106,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.2438,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.0089,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"after": 0.3477,
"delta": 0.0097,
"percent_delta": 0.0287,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.72,
"after": 0.7196,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.047,
"delta": -0.003,
"percent_delta": -0.06,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.361,
"after": 0.3516,
"delta": -0.0094,
"percent_delta": -0.026,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 0.3709,
"delta": -0.0291,
"percent_delta": -0.0728,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.2923,
"delta": -0.0177,
"percent_delta": -0.0571,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.401,
"after": 0.3947,
"delta": -0.0063,
"percent_delta": -0.0157,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.513,
"after": 0.567,
"delta": 0.054,
"percent_delta": 0.1053,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 0.567,
"delta": 0.054,
"percent_delta": 0.1053,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.3516,
"delta": -0.0094,
"percent_delta": -0.026,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 80
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2664,
"predicted_3B": 0.0109,
"predicted_AB": 3.0295,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2288,
"predicted_BB": 0.3422,
"predicted_H": 0.6933,
"predicted_HBP": 0.097,
"predicted_HR": 0.0447,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3071,
"predicted_R": 0.3474,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2738,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3682,
"predicted_SO": 0.576
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2664,
"after": 0.2664,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0109,
"after": 0.0109,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"before": 3.0295,
"after": 3.0295,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2438,
"after": 0.2288,
"delta": -0.015,
"percent_delta": -0.0615,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3477,
"after": 0.3422,
"delta": -0.0055,
"percent_delta": -0.0158,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7196,
"after": 0.6933,
"delta": -0.0263,
"percent_delta": -0.0365,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.097,
"after": 0.097,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.047,
"after": 0.0447,
"delta": -0.0023,
"percent_delta": -0.0489,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3516,
"after": 0.3071,
"delta": -0.0445,
"percent_delta": -0.1266,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3709,
"after": 0.3474,
"delta": -0.0235,
"percent_delta": -0.0634,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2923,
"after": 0.2738,
"delta": -0.0185,
"percent_delta": -0.0633,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3947,
"after": 0.3682,
"delta": -0.0265,
"percent_delta": -0.0671,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.567,
"after": 0.576,
"delta": 0.009,
"percent_delta": 0.0159,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.015",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2664,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2664,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0109,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0109,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0295,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.0295,
"percent_delta": -0.0097,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3422,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3422,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6933,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3067,
"percent_delta": 0.4424,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.097,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.097,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0447,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0447,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2738,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2738,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.576,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.424,
"percent_delta": 0.7361,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.424,
"percent_delta": 0.7361,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.3422,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3422,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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],
"summary": {
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
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},
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 5.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2288,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3071,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3682,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0259,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"percent_delta": 0.1058,
"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.361,
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"delta": -0.0539,
"percent_delta": -0.1493,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4,
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"delta": 0.6,
"percent_delta": 1.5,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.69,
"percent_delta": 2.2258,
"direction": "boost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.401,
"after": 0.3682,
"delta": -0.0328,
"percent_delta": -0.0818,
"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.513,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.513,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.513,
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.062 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.338 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.720 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.361 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.400 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.401 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.513 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.266 | 0.016 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.030 | -0.032 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.348 | 0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.720 | -0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.097 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.047 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.352 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.371 | -0.029 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.292 | -0.018 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.395 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.567 | 0.054 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.266 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.030 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | -0.015 |
| predicted_BB | 0.342 | -0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.693 | -0.026 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.097 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.045 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | -0.045 |
| predicted_R | 0.347 | -0.024 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.274 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.368 | -0.026 |
| predicted_SO | 0.576 | 0.009 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.015
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.266 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.030 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.104 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.342 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.307 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.045 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.026 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.347 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.274 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.035 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.424 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 2.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 13.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.2308 | 0.3750 | 0.3846 | 0.2308 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1538 | 0.3077 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 27.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 0.2222 | 0.3438 | 0.3333 | 0.2222 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1482 | 0.2593 |
| season | 0.60 | 80 | - | 245.000 | 61.000 | 20.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 35.000 | 32.000 | 27.000 | 41.000 | 0.2490 | 0.3310 | 0.4000 | 0.2490 | 0.0204 | 0.1429 | 0.1102 | 0.1673 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2890 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0080 |
| predicted_AB | 2.9850 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2408 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3610 |
| predicted_H | 0.7190 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0970 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0430 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3388 |
| predicted_R | 0.3310 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2680 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3860 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6410 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2500 | 0.2890 | 0.2664 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0080 | 0.0109 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.0620 | 2.9850 | 3.0295 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2460 | 0.2408 | 0.2438 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3380 | 0.3610 | 0.3477 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7200 | 0.7190 | 0.7196 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0970 | 0.0970 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0500 | 0.0430 | 0.0470 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3610 | 0.3388 | 0.3516 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4000 | 0.3310 | 0.3709 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3100 | 0.2680 | 0.2923 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4010 | 0.3860 | 0.3947 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5130 | 0.6410 | 0.5670 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 245 |
| Season rows before report date | 245 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 80 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 3 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.249 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 1.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 1 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 3 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 679845 |
| playerID | 679845 |
| playerName | Nick Loftin |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | KC |
| teamID | 12 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.317 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.3 |
| sl_xba | 0.236 |
| sl_xslg | 0.344 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 28.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 15.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.240 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.239 | 0.000 | 0.761 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 | -0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.470 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.012 | 3.000 | 0.988 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.278 | 0.000 | 0.122 | 0.400 |
| predicted_BB | 0.430 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.467 | 1.000 | -0.467 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.065 | 0.000 | -0.065 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.100 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.117 | 0.000 | 0.883 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.129 | 0.000 | -0.129 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.361 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.353 | 0.250 | 0.047 | 0.150 |
| predicted_R | 0.580 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.557 | 1.000 | 0.443 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.426 | 0.000 | -0.426 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.419 | 0.600 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.441 | 0.000 | 0.159 | 0.600 |
| predicted_SO | 0.770 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.825 | 2.000 | 0.175 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 1.1000 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.9000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.4400 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4400, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2470 -> 0.2582 (boost 0.0112, better) | predicted_AB: 4.4700 -> 4.1431 (deboost -0.3269, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3594 -> 0.3207 (deboost -0.0387, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.7735 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2265, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.4490 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4490, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.024 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5869 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4131, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3850 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1350, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3850 (boost 0.1350, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "677951",
"player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
"position": "SS",
"team": "KC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.24,
"predicted_3B": 0.01,
"predicted_AB": 4.47,
"predicted_AVG": 0.247,
"predicted_BB": 0.43,
"predicted_H": 1.1,
"predicted_HR": 0.14,
"predicted_OBP": 0.361,
"predicted_R": 0.58,
"predicted_RBI": 0.44,
"predicted_SLG": 0.419,
"predicted_SO": 0.77
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2318,
"predicted_3B": 0.0083,
"predicted_AB": 4.1431,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2582,
"predicted_BB": 0.4563,
"predicted_H": 1.0625,
"predicted_HBP": 0.007,
"predicted_HR": 0.1133,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3594,
"predicted_R": 0.6266,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4016,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4102,
"predicted_SO": 0.7614
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2318,
"delta": -0.0082,
"percent_delta": -0.0342,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.0083,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.17,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.47,
"after": 4.1431,
"delta": -0.3269,
"percent_delta": -0.0731,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.247,
"after": 0.2582,
"delta": 0.0112,
"percent_delta": 0.0453,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.43,
"after": 0.4563,
"delta": 0.0263,
"percent_delta": 0.0612,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.1,
"after": 1.0625,
"delta": -0.0375,
"percent_delta": -0.0341,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.1133,
"delta": -0.0267,
"percent_delta": -0.1907,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.361,
"after": 0.3594,
"delta": -0.0016,
"percent_delta": -0.0044,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.58,
"after": 0.6266,
"delta": 0.0466,
"percent_delta": 0.0803,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.44,
"after": 0.4016,
"delta": -0.0384,
"percent_delta": -0.0873,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.419,
"after": 0.4102,
"delta": -0.0088,
"percent_delta": -0.021,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.77,
"after": 0.7614,
"delta": -0.0086,
"percent_delta": -0.0112,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.247,
"after": 0.2582,
"delta": 0.0112,
"percent_delta": 0.0453,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.47,
"after": 4.1431,
"delta": -0.3269,
"percent_delta": -0.0731,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 100
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2318,
"predicted_3B": 0.0083,
"predicted_AB": 4.1431,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2471,
"predicted_BB": 0.449,
"predicted_H": 1.0236,
"predicted_HBP": 0.007,
"predicted_HR": 0.1077,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3207,
"predicted_R": 0.5869,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3761,
"predicted_SLG": 0.385,
"predicted_SO": 0.7735
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2318,
"after": 0.2318,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0083,
"after": 0.0083,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.1431,
"after": 4.1431,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2582,
"after": 0.2471,
"delta": -0.0111,
"percent_delta": -0.043,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4563,
"after": 0.449,
"delta": -0.0073,
"percent_delta": -0.016,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0625,
"after": 1.0236,
"delta": -0.0389,
"percent_delta": -0.0366,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.007,
"after": 0.007,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1133,
"after": 0.1077,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -0.0494,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3594,
"after": 0.3207,
"delta": -0.0387,
"percent_delta": -0.1077,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6266,
"after": 0.5869,
"delta": -0.0397,
"percent_delta": -0.0634,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4016,
"after": 0.3761,
"delta": -0.0255,
"percent_delta": -0.0635,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4102,
"after": 0.385,
"delta": -0.0252,
"percent_delta": -0.0614,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7614,
"after": 0.7735,
"delta": 0.0121,
"percent_delta": 0.0159,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3594,
"after": 0.3207,
"delta": -0.0387,
"percent_delta": -0.1077,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.024",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2318,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2318,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0083,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0083,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.1431,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.1431,
"percent_delta": -0.0345,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.449,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.449,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0236,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0236,
"percent_delta": -0.0231,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.007,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1077,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1077,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3761,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3761,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7735,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2265,
"percent_delta": 0.2928,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 6,
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{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
"index": 7,
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{
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],
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},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
{
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},
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{
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},
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},
{
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},
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],
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},
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}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": -0.034,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.240 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.470 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.430 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.100 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.361 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.580 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.419 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.770 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.232 | -0.008 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 4.143 | -0.327 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.258 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.456 | 0.026 |
| predicted_H | 1.062 | -0.038 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.007 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.113 | -0.027 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.359 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.627 | 0.047 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.402 | -0.038 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.410 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.761 | -0.009 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.232 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.143 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | -0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.449 | -0.007 |
| predicted_H | 1.024 | -0.039 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.108 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.321 | -0.039 |
| predicted_R | 0.587 | -0.040 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.376 | -0.026 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.385 | -0.025 |
| predicted_SO | 0.773 | 0.012 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.024
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.232 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.143 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.449 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.024 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.108 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.071 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.413 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.376 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.135 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.227 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 0.2941 | 0.4000 | 0.3529 | 0.2941 | 0.0000 | 0.0588 | 0.1765 | 0.1765 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 6.000 | 8.000 | 0.2353 | 0.3500 | 0.2941 | 0.2353 | 0.0000 | 0.0882 | 0.1765 | 0.2353 |
| season | 0.60 | 100 | - | 391.000 | 110.000 | 24.000 | 1.000 | 13.000 | 41.000 | 58.000 | 43.000 | 77.000 | 0.2813 | 0.3516 | 0.4476 | 0.2813 | 0.0333 | 0.1049 | 0.1100 | 0.1969 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2210 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7120 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2730 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4910 |
| predicted_H | 1.0130 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0070 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0780 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3574 |
| predicted_R | 0.6880 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3510 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3987 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7500 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2400 | 0.2210 | 0.2318 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 | 0.0060 | 0.0083 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.4700 | 3.7120 | 4.1431 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2470 | 0.2730 | 0.2582 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4300 | 0.4910 | 0.4563 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1000 | 1.0130 | 1.0625 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0070 | 0.0070 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1400 | 0.0780 | 0.1133 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3610 | 0.3574 | 0.3594 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5800 | 0.6880 | 0.6266 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4400 | 0.3510 | 0.4016 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4190 | 0.3987 | 0.4102 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7700 | 0.7500 | 0.7614 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 418 |
| Season rows before report date | 418 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 100 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.281 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 677951 |
| playerID | 677951 |
| playerName | Bobby Witt Jr. |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | KC |
| teamID | 12 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.349 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.384 |
| sl_xba | 0.304 |
| sl_xslg | 0.513 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 52.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.121 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.082 | 0.000 | -0.082 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.606 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.433 | 0.000 | 1.567 | 4.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.314 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.390 | - | -0.390 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.212 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.175 | 0.000 | -0.175 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.072 | 0.000 | -0.072 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.818 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.948 | 0.000 | -0.948 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.091 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.124 | 0.000 | -0.124 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.366 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.426 | - | -0.426 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.545 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.691 | 0.000 | -0.691 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.182 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.268 | 0.000 | -0.268 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.465 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.576 | - | -0.576 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.485 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.392 | 0.000 | 0.608 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.6060 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.3940, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8180 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8180, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_AB: 2.6060 -> 2.7842 (boost 0.1782, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3140 -> 0.3022 (deboost -0.0118, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4554 -> 0.4388 (deboost -0.0166, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.5424 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4576, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.2198 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2198, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.290 HR/AB=0.031 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5037 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4963, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2899 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0431, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4388 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.1058, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4388 (boost 0.1058, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2899 (deboost -0.0431, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "686475",
"player_name": "Tyler Tolbert",
"position": "LF",
"team": "KC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.121,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.606,
"predicted_AVG": 0.314,
"predicted_BB": 0.212,
"predicted_H": 0.818,
"predicted_HR": 0.091,
"predicted_OBP": 0.366,
"predicted_R": 0.545,
"predicted_RBI": 0.182,
"predicted_SLG": 0.465,
"predicted_SO": 0.485
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1517,
"predicted_3B": 0.0011,
"predicted_AB": 2.7842,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3022,
"predicted_BB": 0.2234,
"predicted_H": 0.8377,
"predicted_HBP": 0.006,
"predicted_HR": 0.0914,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3543,
"predicted_R": 0.5378,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1922,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4554,
"predicted_SO": 0.5339
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.121,
"after": 0.1517,
"delta": 0.0307,
"percent_delta": 0.2537,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0011,
"delta": 0.0011,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.606,
"after": 2.7842,
"delta": 0.1782,
"percent_delta": 0.0684,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.314,
"after": 0.3022,
"delta": -0.0118,
"percent_delta": -0.0376,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.212,
"after": 0.2234,
"delta": 0.0114,
"percent_delta": 0.0538,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.818,
"after": 0.8377,
"delta": 0.0197,
"percent_delta": 0.0241,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.091,
"after": 0.0914,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.0044,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.366,
"after": 0.3543,
"delta": -0.0117,
"percent_delta": -0.032,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.545,
"after": 0.5378,
"delta": -0.0072,
"percent_delta": -0.0132,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.182,
"after": 0.1922,
"delta": 0.0102,
"percent_delta": 0.056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.465,
"after": 0.4554,
"delta": -0.0096,
"percent_delta": -0.0206,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.485,
"after": 0.5339,
"delta": 0.0489,
"percent_delta": 0.1008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.606,
"after": 2.7842,
"delta": 0.1782,
"percent_delta": 0.0684,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.314,
"after": 0.3022,
"delta": -0.0118,
"percent_delta": -0.0376,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 33
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1517,
"predicted_3B": 0.0011,
"predicted_AB": 2.7842,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2899,
"predicted_BB": 0.2198,
"predicted_H": 0.807,
"predicted_HBP": 0.006,
"predicted_HR": 0.0869,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3418,
"predicted_R": 0.5037,
"predicted_RBI": 0.18,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4388,
"predicted_SO": 0.5424
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1517,
"after": 0.1517,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0011,
"after": 0.0011,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.7842,
"after": 2.7842,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.3022,
"after": 0.2899,
"delta": -0.0123,
"percent_delta": -0.0407,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2234,
"after": 0.2198,
"delta": -0.0036,
"percent_delta": -0.0161,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8377,
"after": 0.807,
"delta": -0.0307,
"percent_delta": -0.0366,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.006,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0914,
"after": 0.0869,
"delta": -0.0045,
"percent_delta": -0.0492,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3543,
"after": 0.3418,
"delta": -0.0125,
"percent_delta": -0.0353,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5378,
"after": 0.5037,
"delta": -0.0341,
"percent_delta": -0.0634,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.1922,
"after": 0.18,
"delta": -0.0122,
"percent_delta": -0.0635,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4554,
"after": 0.4388,
"delta": -0.0166,
"percent_delta": -0.0365,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5339,
"after": 0.5424,
"delta": 0.0085,
"percent_delta": 0.0159,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4554,
"after": 0.4388,
"delta": -0.0166,
"percent_delta": -0.0365,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.290 HR/AB=0.031",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1517,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1517,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.606,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.394,
"percent_delta": 0.5349,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.818,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.818,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.121 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.606 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.314 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.212 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.818 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.091 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.366 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.545 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.182 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.465 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.485 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.152 | 0.031 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 2.784 | 0.178 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.302 | -0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.223 | 0.011 |
| predicted_H | 0.838 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.091 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.354 | -0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.538 | -0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.192 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.455 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.534 | 0.049 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.152 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.784 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.290 | -0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.220 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.807 | -0.031 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.087 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.342 | -0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.504 | -0.034 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.180 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.439 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 0.542 | 0.008 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.290 HR/AB=0.031
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.152 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.216 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.043 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.220 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.193 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.087 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.496 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.180 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.106 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.458 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.2778 | 0.3158 | 0.3889 | 0.2778 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0556 | 0.2222 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 28.000 | 7.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3226 | 0.4643 | 0.2500 | 0.0357 | 0.0357 | 0.1071 | 0.1786 |
| season | 0.60 | 33 | - | 86.000 | 27.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 18.000 | 7.000 | 16.000 | 0.3140 | 0.3617 | 0.4651 | 0.3140 | 0.0349 | 0.0698 | 0.0814 | 0.1860 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0030 |
| predicted_AB | 3.0760 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2829 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2420 |
| predicted_H | 0.8700 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0060 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0920 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3352 |
| predicted_R | 0.5260 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2090 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4398 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6140 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1210 | 0.2020 | 0.1517 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0030 | 0.0011 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.6060 | 3.0760 | 2.7842 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3140 | 0.2829 | 0.3022 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2120 | 0.2420 | 0.2234 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8180 | 0.8700 | 0.8377 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0060 | 0.0060 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0910 | 0.0920 | 0.0914 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3660 | 0.3352 | 0.3543 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5450 | 0.5260 | 0.5378 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1820 | 0.2090 | 0.1922 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4650 | 0.4398 | 0.4554 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.4850 | 0.6140 | 0.5339 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 97 |
| Season rows before report date | 97 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 33 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.314 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PR-DH |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 686475 |
| note | Ran for Jensen in the 8th. |
| playerID | 686475 |
| playerName | Tyler Tolbert |
| pos | SS |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PR |
| team | KC |
| teamID | 12 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.36 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.308 |
| sl_xba | 0.265 |
| sl_xslg | 0.347 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 29.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 8.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 26.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.220 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.268 | 0.000 | -0.268 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.003 | 0.000 | -0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.670 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.775 | 3.000 | 0.225 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.165 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.247 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.404 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.430 | 1.000 | -0.430 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.600 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.934 | 0.000 | 0.066 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.170 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.154 | 0.000 | -0.154 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.285 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.322 | 0.250 | -0.072 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.486 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.509 | 0.000 | -0.509 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.430 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.615 | 0.000 | -0.615 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.353 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.443 | 0.000 | -0.193 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.183 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.175 | 1.000 | -1.175 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.6000 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.1830 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.1830, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_R: 0.4860 -> 0.5386 (boost 0.0526, better) | predicted_AB: 3.6700 -> 3.6135 (deboost -0.0565, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2866 -> 0.2577 (deboost -0.0289, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.6030 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3970, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4422 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4422, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.044 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5045 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4955, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.1669 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0831, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3594 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1094, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3594 (boost 0.1094, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.1669 (deboost -0.0831, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "695600",
"player_name": "Carter Jensen",
"position": "C",
"team": "KC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.22,
"predicted_3B": 0.009,
"predicted_AB": 3.67,
"predicted_AVG": 0.165,
"predicted_BB": 0.404,
"predicted_H": 0.6,
"predicted_HR": 0.17,
"predicted_OBP": 0.285,
"predicted_R": 0.486,
"predicted_RBI": 0.43,
"predicted_SLG": 0.353,
"predicted_SO": 1.183
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1825,
"predicted_3B": 0.0159,
"predicted_AB": 3.6135,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1742,
"predicted_BB": 0.4493,
"predicted_H": 0.6259,
"predicted_HBP": 0.007,
"predicted_HR": 0.1687,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2866,
"predicted_R": 0.5386,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4115,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3643,
"predicted_SO": 1.1778
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.22,
"after": 0.1825,
"delta": -0.0375,
"percent_delta": -0.1705,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0159,
"delta": 0.0069,
"percent_delta": 0.7667,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.67,
"after": 3.6135,
"delta": -0.0565,
"percent_delta": -0.0154,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.165,
"after": 0.1742,
"delta": 0.0092,
"percent_delta": 0.0558,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.404,
"after": 0.4493,
"delta": 0.0453,
"percent_delta": 0.1121,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 0.6259,
"delta": 0.0259,
"percent_delta": 0.0432,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.1687,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.0076,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.285,
"after": 0.2866,
"delta": 0.0016,
"percent_delta": 0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.486,
"after": 0.5386,
"delta": 0.0526,
"percent_delta": 0.1082,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.43,
"after": 0.4115,
"delta": -0.0185,
"percent_delta": -0.043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.353,
"after": 0.3643,
"delta": 0.0113,
"percent_delta": 0.032,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.183,
"after": 1.1778,
"delta": -0.0052,
"percent_delta": -0.0044,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.486,
"after": 0.5386,
"delta": 0.0526,
"percent_delta": 0.1082,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.67,
"after": 3.6135,
"delta": -0.0565,
"percent_delta": -0.0154,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 109
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1825,
"predicted_3B": 0.0159,
"predicted_AB": 3.6135,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1669,
"predicted_BB": 0.4422,
"predicted_H": 0.603,
"predicted_HBP": 0.007,
"predicted_HR": 0.1604,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2577,
"predicted_R": 0.5045,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3854,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3594,
"predicted_SO": 1.1965
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1825,
"after": 0.1825,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0159,
"after": 0.0159,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6135,
"after": 3.6135,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1742,
"after": 0.1669,
"delta": -0.0073,
"percent_delta": -0.0419,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4493,
"after": 0.4422,
"delta": -0.0071,
"percent_delta": -0.0158,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6259,
"after": 0.603,
"delta": -0.0229,
"percent_delta": -0.0366,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.007,
"after": 0.007,
"delta": 0.0,
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"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.67,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.33,
"percent_delta": 0.0899,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.165,
"after": 0.1669,
"delta": 0.0019,
"percent_delta": 0.0115,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.404,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.404,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4,
"percent_delta": 0.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.17,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.285,
"after": 0.2577,
"delta": -0.0273,
"percent_delta": -0.0958,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.486,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.486,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.43,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.43,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.353,
"after": 0.3594,
"delta": 0.0064,
"percent_delta": 0.0181,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.183,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.183,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4,
"percent_delta": 0.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.183,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.183,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.220 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.670 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.165 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.404 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.600 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.285 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.486 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.430 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.353 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.183 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.182 | -0.038 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.007 |
| predicted_AB | 3.614 | -0.056 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.174 | 0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.449 | 0.045 |
| predicted_H | 0.626 | 0.026 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.007 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.169 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.287 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.539 | 0.053 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.411 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.364 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 1.178 | -0.005 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.182 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.614 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.167 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.442 | -0.007 |
| predicted_H | 0.603 | -0.023 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | -0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.258 | -0.029 |
| predicted_R | 0.504 | -0.034 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.385 | -0.026 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.359 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 1.196 | 0.019 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.044
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.182 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.386 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.442 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.397 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.160 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.496 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.385 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.109 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.196 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 0.1176 | 0.2500 | 0.2941 | 0.1177 | 0.0588 | 0.0588 | 0.1765 | 0.3529 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 8.000 | 12.000 | 0.1143 | 0.2791 | 0.3429 | 0.1143 | 0.0571 | 0.0571 | 0.2286 | 0.3429 |
| season | 0.60 | 109 | - | 389.000 | 88.000 | 24.000 | 1.000 | 16.000 | 55.000 | 53.000 | 44.000 | 129.000 | 0.2262 | 0.3030 | 0.4165 | 0.2262 | 0.0411 | 0.1414 | 0.1131 | 0.3316 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1330 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0250 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5390 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1863 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5090 |
| predicted_H | 0.6600 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0070 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1670 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2888 |
| predicted_R | 0.6080 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3870 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3793 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1710 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2200 | 0.1330 | 0.1825 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0250 | 0.0159 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6700 | 3.5390 | 3.6135 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1650 | 0.1863 | 0.1742 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4040 | 0.5090 | 0.4493 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6000 | 0.6600 | 0.6259 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0070 | 0.0070 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1700 | 0.1670 | 0.1687 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2850 | 0.2888 | 0.2866 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4860 | 0.6080 | 0.5386 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4300 | 0.3870 | 0.4115 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3530 | 0.3793 | 0.3643 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1830 | 1.1710 | 1.1778 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 395 |
| Season rows before report date | 395 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 109 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.226 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 695600 |
| playerID | 695600 |
| playerName | Carter Jensen |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | KC |
| teamID | 12 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.314 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.283 |
| sl_xba | 0.202 |
| sl_xslg | 0.358 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 20.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.156 | 0.000 | -0.156 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.002 | 0.000 | -0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.750 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.933 | 4.000 | 1.067 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.208 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.220 | 0.000 | -0.020 | 0.200 |
| predicted_BB | 0.164 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.191 | 0.000 | -0.191 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.990 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.866 | 0.000 | 0.134 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.158 | 0.000 | -0.158 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.263 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.272 | 0.000 | -0.072 | 0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.373 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.419 | 0.000 | -0.419 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.570 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.469 | 0.000 | -0.469 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.393 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.381 | 0.000 | -0.181 | 0.200 |
| predicted_SO | 0.845 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.854 | 1.000 | -0.854 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 4.7500 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.2500, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8450 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8450, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | - | predicted_AB: 4.7500 -> 4.3330 (deboost -0.4170, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3669 -> 0.3246 (deboost -0.0423, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | predicted_AB: 4.3330 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.6670, better) | predicted_BB: 0.1618 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1618, worse) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.183 HR/AB=0.026 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3251 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3251, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3246 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.1246, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2000 -> 0.3246 (boost 0.1246, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "521692",
"player_name": "Salvador Perez",
"position": "DH",
"team": "KC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.155,
"predicted_3B": 0.009,
"predicted_AB": 4.75,
"predicted_AVG": 0.208,
"predicted_BB": 0.164,
"predicted_H": 0.99,
"predicted_HR": 0.15,
"predicted_OBP": 0.263,
"predicted_R": 0.373,
"predicted_RBI": 0.57,
"predicted_SLG": 0.393,
"predicted_SO": 0.845
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1459,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 4.333,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2083,
"predicted_BB": 0.1644,
"predicted_H": 0.9036,
"predicted_HBP": 0.057,
"predicted_HR": 0.1314,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2571,
"predicted_R": 0.3471,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5095,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3669,
"predicted_SO": 0.762
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.155,
"after": 0.1459,
"delta": -0.0091,
"percent_delta": -0.0587,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.75,
"after": 4.333,
"delta": -0.417,
"percent_delta": -0.0878,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.208,
"after": 0.2083,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0014,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.164,
"after": 0.1644,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.0024,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.99,
"after": 0.9036,
"delta": -0.0864,
"percent_delta": -0.0873,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.15,
"after": 0.1314,
"delta": -0.0186,
"percent_delta": -0.124,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.263,
"after": 0.2571,
"delta": -0.0059,
"percent_delta": -0.0224,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.373,
"after": 0.3471,
"delta": -0.0259,
"percent_delta": -0.0694,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.57,
"after": 0.5095,
"delta": -0.0605,
"percent_delta": -0.1061,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.393,
"after": 0.3669,
"delta": -0.0261,
"percent_delta": -0.0664,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.845,
"after": 0.762,
"delta": -0.083,
"percent_delta": -0.0982,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.75,
"after": 4.333,
"delta": -0.417,
"percent_delta": -0.0878,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.2009,
"delta": 0.0009,
"percent_delta": 0.0045,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.2297,
"delta": 0.0297,
"percent_delta": 0.1483,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.3246,
"delta": 0.1246,
"percent_delta": 0.6232,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.3246,
"delta": 0.1246,
"percent_delta": 0.6232,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.155,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.155,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.75,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.25,
"percent_delta": 0.0526,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.208,
"after": 0.2009,
"delta": -0.0071,
"percent_delta": -0.0341,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.164,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.164,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.99,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.0101,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.15,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.15,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.263,
"after": 0.2297,
"delta": -0.0333,
"percent_delta": -0.1266,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.373,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.373,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.57,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.57,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.393,
"after": 0.3246,
"delta": -0.0684,
"percent_delta": -0.174,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.845,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.845,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.75,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.25,
"percent_delta": 0.0526,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.845,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.845,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.750 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.208 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.164 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.990 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.263 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.373 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.570 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.393 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.845 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.146 | -0.009 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.333 | -0.417 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.208 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.164 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.904 | -0.086 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.057 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.131 | -0.019 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.257 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.347 | -0.026 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.509 | -0.060 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.367 | -0.026 |
| predicted_SO | 0.762 | -0.083 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.146 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.333 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.201 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.162 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.871 | -0.033 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.057 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.125 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.230 | -0.027 |
| predicted_R | 0.325 | -0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.477 | -0.032 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.325 | -0.042 |
| predicted_SO | 0.774 | 0.012 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.183 HR/AB=0.026
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.146 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.667 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.162 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.129 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.125 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.200 | -0.030 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.325 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.523 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.200 | -0.125 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.226 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.1667 | 0.2105 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 | 0.0000 | 0.1111 | 0.0556 | 0.0556 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.2162 | 0.2308 | 0.3514 | 0.2162 | 0.0270 | 0.1081 | 0.0270 | 0.1351 |
| season | 0.60 | 110 | - | 426.000 | 92.000 | 17.000 | 1.000 | 16.000 | 49.000 | 41.000 | 18.000 | 93.000 | 0.2160 | 0.2625 | 0.3732 | 0.2160 | 0.0376 | 0.1150 | 0.0423 | 0.2183 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1340 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7850 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2087 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1650 |
| predicted_H | 0.7900 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0570 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1070 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2494 |
| predicted_R | 0.3130 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4300 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3325 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6530 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 | 0.1340 | 0.1459 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0060 | 0.0077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.7500 | 3.7850 | 4.3330 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2080 | 0.2087 | 0.2083 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1640 | 0.1650 | 0.1644 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9900 | 0.7900 | 0.9036 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0570 | 0.0570 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1500 | 0.1070 | 0.1314 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2630 | 0.2494 | 0.2571 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3730 | 0.3130 | 0.3471 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5700 | 0.4300 | 0.5095 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3930 | 0.3325 | 0.3669 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8450 | 0.6530 | 0.7620 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 418 |
| Season rows before report date | 418 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 110 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.216 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 521692 |
| playerID | 521692 |
| playerName | Salvador Perez |
| pos | DH |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | KC |
| teamID | 12 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.276 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.297 |
| sl_xba | 0.229 |
| sl_xslg | 0.409 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 56.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.208 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.238 | 0.000 | -0.238 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.003 | 0.000 | -0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.810 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.407 | 4.000 | 0.593 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.281 | 0.250 | -0.031 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.167 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.197 | 0.000 | -0.197 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.880 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.959 | 1.000 | 0.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.103 | 0.000 | -0.103 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.271 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.317 | 0.250 | -0.067 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.417 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.503 | 1.000 | 0.497 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.340 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.476 | 0.000 | 1.524 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.031 | 0.000 | -0.031 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.397 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.444 | 0.250 | -0.194 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.583 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.614 | 3.000 | 0.386 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.3400 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.6600, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_2B: 0.2080 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2080, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_AB: 3.8100 -> 3.6760 (deboost -0.1340, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3937 -> 0.3563 (deboost -0.0374, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.6199 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3801, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.3156 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3156, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.020 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3925 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3925, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2261 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0239, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3563 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1063, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3563 (boost 0.1063, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2261 (deboost -0.0239, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "686681",
"player_name": "Michael Massey",
"position": "2B",
"team": "KC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2261,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2554,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3563,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2261,
"delta": -0.0239,
"percent_delta": -0.0957,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2554,
"delta": 0.0054,
"percent_delta": 0.0218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3563,
"delta": 0.1063,
"percent_delta": 0.425,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3563,
"delta": 0.1063,
"percent_delta": 0.425,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2261,
"delta": -0.0239,
"percent_delta": -0.0957,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.208,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.208,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.81,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.19,
"percent_delta": 0.0499,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 0.2261,
"delta": -0.0039,
"percent_delta": -0.017,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.167,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.167,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.88,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.12,
"percent_delta": 0.1364,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.08,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.271,
"after": 0.2554,
"delta": -0.0156,
"percent_delta": -0.0576,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.417,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.583,
"percent_delta": 1.3981,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.66,
"percent_delta": 4.8824,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.397,
"after": 0.3563,
"delta": -0.0407,
"percent_delta": -0.1025,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.583,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.417,
"percent_delta": 0.7153,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.66,
"percent_delta": 4.8824,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.208,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.208,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.208 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.810 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.167 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.880 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.271 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.417 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.340 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.397 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.583 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.186 | -0.022 |
| predicted_3B | 0.030 | 0.020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.676 | -0.134 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.147 | -0.020 |
| predicted_H | 0.863 | -0.017 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.003 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.082 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.268 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.419 | 0.002 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.337 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.394 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.610 | 0.027 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.186 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.030 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.676 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.226 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.145 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.831 | -0.032 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.078 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.255 | -0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.393 | -0.027 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.316 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.356 | -0.037 |
| predicted_SO | 0.620 | 0.010 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.020
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.186 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.030 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.324 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.024 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.145 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.169 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.078 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.393 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.316 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.106 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.380 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.3000 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 0.2105 | 0.2105 | 0.3684 | 0.2105 | 0.0263 | 0.0790 | 0.0000 | 0.1579 |
| season | 0.60 | 96 | - | 305.000 | 80.000 | 20.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 39.000 | 40.000 | 16.000 | 56.000 | 0.2623 | 0.2945 | 0.4230 | 0.2623 | 0.0295 | 0.1279 | 0.0525 | 0.1836 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1570 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0560 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4950 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2402 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1210 |
| predicted_H | 0.8390 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0030 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0840 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2627 |
| predicted_R | 0.4220 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3330 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3893 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6470 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2080 | 0.1570 | 0.1863 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 | 0.0560 | 0.0296 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8100 | 3.4950 | 3.6760 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2300 | 0.2402 | 0.2343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1670 | 0.1210 | 0.1474 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8800 | 0.8390 | 0.8626 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0030 | 0.0030 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.0840 | 0.0817 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2710 | 0.2627 | 0.2675 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4170 | 0.4220 | 0.4191 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3400 | 0.3330 | 0.3370 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3970 | 0.3893 | 0.3937 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5830 | 0.6470 | 0.6102 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 290 |
| Season rows before report date | 290 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 96 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.262 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 3 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 686681 |
| playerID | 686681 |
| playerName | Michael Massey |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | KC |
| teamID | 12 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 4.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.31 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.295 |
| sl_xba | 0.241 |
| sl_xslg | 0.395 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.250 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.273 | 0.000 | -0.273 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.062 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.152 | 0.000 | -0.152 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.625 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.545 | 0.000 | 1.455 | 4.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.346 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.286 | - | 0.214 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.250 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.333 | 0.000 | -0.333 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.300 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.727 | 0.000 | 1.273 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.182 | 0.000 | -0.182 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.346 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.368 | - | 0.132 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.438 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.545 | 0.000 | 0.455 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.110 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.182 | 0.000 | -0.182 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.432 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.726 | - | -0.226 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.562 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.667 | 0.000 | -0.667 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.3000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.7000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.5620 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5620, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.3000 -> 0.4388 (boost 0.1388, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3460 -> 0.3094 (deboost -0.0366, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3094 -> 0.1533 (deboost -0.1561, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.5767 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4233, worse) | predicted_H: 0.4227 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4227, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.153 HR/AB=0.029 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 0.4077 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4077, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.1533 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1797, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3593 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0263, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.3593 (boost 0.0263, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1533 (deboost -0.1797, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "670231",
"player_name": "John Rave",
"position": "RF",
"team": "KC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.062,
"predicted_AB": 2.625,
"predicted_AVG": 0.346,
"predicted_BB": 0.25,
"predicted_H": 0.3,
"predicted_HR": 0.07,
"predicted_OBP": 0.346,
"predicted_R": 0.438,
"predicted_RBI": 0.11,
"predicted_SLG": 0.432,
"predicted_SO": 0.562
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0516,
"predicted_AB": 2.7582,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3094,
"predicted_BB": 0.2627,
"predicted_H": 0.4388,
"predicted_HBP": 0.01,
"predicted_HR": 0.0827,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3329,
"predicted_R": 0.4353,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1458,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4301,
"predicted_SO": 0.5677
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"delta": -0.0207,
"percent_delta": -0.0828,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0516,
"delta": -0.0104,
"percent_delta": -0.1677,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 0.1332,
"percent_delta": 0.0507,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"delta": -0.0366,
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"delta": 0.0127,
"percent_delta": 0.0508,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 0.4388,
"delta": 0.1388,
"percent_delta": 0.4627,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"percent_delta": 0.1814,
"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"delta": -0.0131,
"percent_delta": -0.0379,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"delta": -0.0027,
"percent_delta": -0.0062,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 0.1458,
"delta": 0.0358,
"percent_delta": 0.3255,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"after": 0.4301,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0044,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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}
],
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"direction": "boost",
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 16
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0516,
"predicted_AB": 2.7582,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1533,
"predicted_BB": 0.2585,
"predicted_H": 0.4227,
"predicted_HBP": 0.01,
"predicted_HR": 0.0786,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2258,
"predicted_R": 0.4077,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1366,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3593,
"predicted_SO": 0.5767
},
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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"percent_delta": -0.0367,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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},
{
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{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"delta": -0.1071,
"percent_delta": -0.3217,
"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": -0.0092,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": -0.0708,
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"weights": {},
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{
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"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.153 HR/AB=0.029",
"stats": {
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_CS": 0.0,
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{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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}
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"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
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},
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1533,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.1797,
"percent_delta": 1.1722,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3593,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": -0.0263,
"percent_delta": -0.0732,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1533,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2258,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3593,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1533,
"delta": -0.1797,
"percent_delta": -0.5397,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2258,
"delta": -0.1072,
"percent_delta": -0.3218,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3593,
"delta": 0.0263,
"percent_delta": 0.0791,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3593,
"delta": 0.0263,
"percent_delta": 0.0791,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1533,
"delta": -0.1797,
"percent_delta": -0.5397,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.25,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.062,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.062,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.625,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.375,
"percent_delta": 0.5238,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.346,
"after": 0.1533,
"delta": -0.1927,
"percent_delta": -0.5569,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.25,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.7,
"percent_delta": 5.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.07,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.07,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.346,
"after": 0.2258,
"delta": -0.1202,
"percent_delta": -0.3474,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.438,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.562,
"percent_delta": 1.2831,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.11,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.11,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.432,
"after": 0.3593,
"delta": -0.0727,
"percent_delta": -0.1683,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.562,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.562,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 12,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.7,
"percent_delta": 5.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.562,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.562,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.062 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.625 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.346 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.300 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.346 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.438 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.110 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.432 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.562 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.229 | -0.021 |
| predicted_3B | 0.052 | -0.010 |
| predicted_AB | 2.758 | 0.133 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.309 | -0.037 |
| predicted_BB | 0.263 | 0.013 |
| predicted_H | 0.439 | 0.139 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.083 | 0.013 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | -0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.435 | -0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.146 | 0.036 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.430 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.568 | 0.006 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.229 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.052 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.758 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.153 | -0.156 |
| predicted_BB | 0.259 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.423 | -0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.079 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.226 | -0.107 |
| predicted_R | 0.408 | -0.028 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.137 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.359 | -0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 0.577 | 0.009 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.153 HR/AB=0.029
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.229 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.052 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.242 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.180 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.259 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.577 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.079 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.107 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.408 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.137 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.026 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.423 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.1000 | 0.2500 | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.1000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 27.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.2593 | 0.3103 | 0.4444 | 0.2593 | 0.0370 | 0.0370 | 0.0741 | 0.1111 |
| season | 0.60 | 16 | - | 42.000 | 11.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 0.2619 | 0.3261 | 0.5476 | 0.2619 | 0.0476 | 0.0476 | 0.0952 | 0.2143 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1880 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0310 |
| predicted_AB | 3.0230 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2366 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2880 |
| predicted_H | 0.7150 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0100 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1080 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3069 |
| predicted_R | 0.4300 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2170 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4262 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5790 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2500 | 0.1880 | 0.2293 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0620 | 0.0310 | 0.0516 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.6250 | 3.0230 | 2.7582 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3460 | 0.2366 | 0.3094 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2500 | 0.2880 | 0.2627 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.3000 | 0.7150 | 0.4388 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0100 | 0.0100 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0700 | 0.1080 | 0.0827 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3460 | 0.3069 | 0.3329 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4380 | 0.4300 | 0.4353 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1100 | 0.2170 | 0.1458 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4320 | 0.4262 | 0.4301 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5620 | 0.5790 | 0.5677 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 33 |
| Season rows before report date | 33 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 16 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.262 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260809_CHC@KC |
| game_type | short |
| mlbID | 670231 |
| playerID | 670231 |
| playerName | John Rave |
| pos | RF |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | KC |
| teamID | 12 |
| game_date | 2026-08-09 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.378 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.376 |
| sl_xba | 0.278 |
| sl_xslg | 0.517 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 17.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.098 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.116 | 0.000 | -0.116 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.021 | 0.000 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.984 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.247 | 4.000 | 0.753 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.210 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.251 | 0.250 | -0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.180 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.189 | 0.000 | -0.189 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.620 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.816 | 1.000 | 0.184 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.063 | 1.000 | -0.063 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.252 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.303 | 0.250 | -0.053 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.279 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.342 | 1.000 | -0.342 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.340 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.242 | 2.000 | -0.242 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.309 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.358 | 1.000 | -0.108 | -0.750 |
| predicted_SO | 0.705 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.863 | 0.000 | 0.137 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.9840 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0160, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.3400 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3400, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3090 -> 0.3172 (boost 0.0082, better) | predicted_SO: 0.7050 -> 0.6515 (deboost -0.0535, better) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3172 -> 0.3298 (boost 0.0126, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.2506 -> 0.2417 (deboost -0.0089, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.5874 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4126, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3146 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3146, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.032 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.2598 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2598, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1952 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1378, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1952 (deboost -0.1378, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "664728",
"player_name": "Kyle Isbel",
"position": "CF",
"team": "KC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.098,
"predicted_3B": 0.016,
"predicted_AB": 2.984,
"predicted_AVG": 0.21,
"predicted_BB": 0.18,
"predicted_H": 0.62,
"predicted_HR": 0.1,
"predicted_OBP": 0.252,
"predicted_R": 0.279,
"predicted_RBI": 0.34,
"predicted_SLG": 0.309,
"predicted_SO": 0.705
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0869,
"predicted_3B": 0.0135,
"predicted_AB": 3.0091,
"predicted_AVG": 0.204,
"predicted_BB": 0.1874,
"predicted_H": 0.6097,
"predicted_HBP": 0.03,
"predicted_HR": 0.1021,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2506,
"predicted_R": 0.2774,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3359,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3172,
"predicted_SO": 0.6515
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.098,
"after": 0.0869,
"delta": -0.0111,
"percent_delta": -0.1133,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.0135,
"delta": -0.0025,
"percent_delta": -0.1563,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.984,
"after": 3.0091,
"delta": 0.0251,
"percent_delta": 0.0084,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.204,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -0.0286,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.1874,
"delta": 0.0074,
"percent_delta": 0.0411,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.62,
"after": 0.6097,
"delta": -0.0103,
"percent_delta": -0.0166,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.1021,
"delta": 0.0021,
"percent_delta": 0.021,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.252,
"after": 0.2506,
"delta": -0.0014,
"percent_delta": -0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.279,
"after": 0.2774,
"delta": -0.0016,
"percent_delta": -0.0057,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.3359,
"delta": -0.0041,
"percent_delta": -0.0121,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.309,
"after": 0.3172,
"delta": 0.0082,
"percent_delta": 0.0265,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.705,
"after": 0.6515,
"delta": -0.0535,
"percent_delta": -0.0759,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.309,
"after": 0.3172,
"delta": 0.0082,
"percent_delta": 0.0265,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.705,
"after": 0.6515,
"delta": -0.0535,
"percent_delta": -0.0759,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 61
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0869,
"predicted_3B": 0.0135,
"predicted_AB": 3.0091,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1952,
"predicted_BB": 0.1844,
"predicted_H": 0.5874,
"predicted_HBP": 0.03,
"predicted_HR": 0.0971,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2417,
"predicted_R": 0.2598,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3146,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3298,
"predicted_SO": 0.6619
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0869,
"after": 0.0869,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0135,
"after": 0.0135,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0091,
"after": 3.0091,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.204,
"after": 0.1952,
"delta": -0.0088,
"percent_delta": -0.0431,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1874,
"after": 0.1844,
"delta": -0.003,
"percent_delta": -0.016,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6097,
"after": 0.5874,
"delta": -0.0223,
"percent_delta": -0.0366,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 0.03,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1021,
"after": 0.0971,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.049,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2506,
"after": 0.2417,
"delta": -0.0089,
"percent_delta": -0.0355,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.2774,
"after": 0.2598,
"delta": -0.0176,
"percent_delta": -0.0634,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3359,
"after": 0.3146,
"delta": -0.0213,
"percent_delta": -0.0634,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3172,
"after": 0.3298,
"delta": 0.0126,
"percent_delta": 0.0397,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6515,
"after": 0.6619,
"delta": 0.0104,
"percent_delta": 0.016,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3172,
"after": 0.3298,
"delta": 0.0126,
"percent_delta": 0.0397,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2506,
"after": 0.2417,
"delta": -0.0089,
"percent_delta": -0.0355,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.032",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0869,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0869,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0135,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0135,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0091,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.0091,
"percent_delta": -0.003,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1844,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1844,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5874,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4126,
"percent_delta": 0.7024,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.03,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0971,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0971,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3146,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3146,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6619,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3381,
"percent_delta": 0.5108,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5874,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4126,
"percent_delta": 0.7024,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3146,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3146,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.2598,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2598,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.2598,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2598,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
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},
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},
{
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"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
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{
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{
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],
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"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1952,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2417,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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},
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0208,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.098 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.984 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.210 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.180 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.620 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.252 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.279 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.340 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.309 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.705 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.087 | -0.011 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.009 | 0.025 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.204 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.187 | 0.007 |
| predicted_H | 0.610 | -0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.102 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.251 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.277 | -0.002 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.336 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.317 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.651 | -0.053 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.087 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.195 | -0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.184 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.587 | -0.022 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.030 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.097 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.242 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.260 | -0.018 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.315 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.330 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.662 | 0.010 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.032
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.087 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.009 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.138 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.184 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.413 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.097 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.091 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.260 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.315 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.338 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 14.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.0714 | 0.1333 | 0.2857 | 0.0714 | 0.0714 | 0.1429 | 0.0714 | 0.0714 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 29.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.1724 | 0.2188 | 0.2759 | 0.1724 | 0.0345 | 0.1379 | 0.0690 | 0.1379 |
| season | 0.60 | 61 | - | 182.000 | 42.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 15.000 | 17.000 | 11.000 | 43.000 | 0.2308 | 0.2828 | 0.3407 | 0.2308 | 0.0220 | 0.0824 | 0.0604 | 0.2363 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0710 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.0450 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1953 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1980 |
| predicted_H | 0.5950 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0300 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1050 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2487 |
| predicted_R | 0.2750 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3300 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3289 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5750 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0980 | 0.0710 | 0.0869 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 | 0.0100 | 0.0135 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.9840 | 3.0450 | 3.0091 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2100 | 0.1953 | 0.2040 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1800 | 0.1980 | 0.1874 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6200 | 0.5950 | 0.6097 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0300 | 0.0300 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1000 | 0.1050 | 0.1021 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2520 | 0.2487 | 0.2506 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.2790 | 0.2750 | 0.2774 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3400 | 0.3300 | 0.3359 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3090 | 0.3289 | 0.3172 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7050 | 0.5750 | 0.6515 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 190 |
| Season rows before report date | 190 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 61 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.231 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 664728 |
| playerID | 664728 |
| playerName | Kyle Isbel |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | KC |
| teamID | 12 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.275 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.27 |
| sl_xba | 0.234 |
| sl_xslg | 0.316 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.783 | 3.000 | 0.217 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_ER | 2.391 | 1.000 | 1.609 | 3.000 |
| predicted_H | 7.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | Pitching_H | 5.435 | 3.000 | 1.565 | 4.000 |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 6.170 | 5.200 | -0.170 | 0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_SO | 4.870 | 1.000 | -1.870 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "608379",
"player_name": "Michael Wacha",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "KC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 4.0,
"predicted_H": 7.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 4.0,
"predicted_H": 7.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_R": 4.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 4.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 7.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 29.100 | 11.000 | 23.000 | 10.000 | 21.000 | 4.000 | 3.3750 | 1.1250 | 0.3750 | 0.7841 | 0.3409 | 0.7159 | 0.1364 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 63.000 | 24.000 | 59.000 | 15.000 | 45.000 | 8.000 | 3.4286 | 1.1746 | 0.3810 | 0.9365 | 0.2381 | 0.7143 | 0.1270 |
| season | 0.20 | 23 | 144.000 | 55.000 | 125.000 | 41.000 | 112.000 | 17.000 | 3.4375 | 1.1528 | 0.3819 | 0.8681 | 0.2847 | 0.7778 | 0.1181 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.8790 |
| predicted_ER | 2.4600 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.5993 |
| predicted_H | 5.3840 |
| predicted_HR | 0.8170 |
| predicted_IP | 6.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 4.7300 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1810 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0000 | 1.8790 | 1.9305 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 4.0000 | 2.4600 | 3.1152 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.5993 | 3.5993 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 7.0000 | 5.3840 | 6.0715 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 2.0000 | 0.8170 | 1.3203 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 6.0000 | 6.0000 | 6.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 3.0000 | 4.7300 | 3.9940 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1810 | 1.1810 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 23 |
| Season rows before report date | 23 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 23 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 6.0 |
| H | 7 |
| R | 4 |
| ER | 4 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 3 |
| HR | 2 |
| BF | 27 |
| Pitches | 105 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 3 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 22 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.44 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 8 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 3 |
| Pitching_H | 3 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 94 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 51 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260806_MIN@KC |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 608379 |
| playerID | 608379 |
| playerName | Michael Wacha |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | KC |
| teamID | 12 |
| game_date | 2026-08-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.303 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.315 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.2 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.77955512 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.683624652 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.415 | 0.000 | -0.415 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.488 | 0.000 | -0.488 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.854 | 1.000 | -0.854 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.946 | 1.000 | 0.054 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.195 | 1.000 | -0.195 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "674444",
"player_name": "Steven Cruz",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "KC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 1.8000 | 0.6000 | 0.2000 | 0.6000 | 0.0000 | 0.6000 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 2.7000 | 0.9000 | 0.3000 | 0.8000 | 0.1000 | 0.8000 | 0.2000 |
| season | 0.20 | 41 | 43.000 | 20.000 | 35.000 | 17.000 | 49.000 | 11.000 | 4.1860 | 1.2093 | 0.4651 | 0.8139 | 0.3953 | 1.1395 | 0.2558 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2050 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3650 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.2889 |
| predicted_H | 0.8080 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1880 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8440 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0129 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.2050 | 0.1014 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3650 | 0.1805 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.2889 | 3.2889 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.8080 | 0.3997 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1880 | 0.0930 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.8440 | 0.9228 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0129 | 1.0129 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 41 |
| Season rows before report date | 41 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 41 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 16 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 4.19 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 20 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 12 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260808_CHC@KC |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 674444 |
| playerID | 674444 |
| playerName | Steven Cruz |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | KC |
| teamID | 12 |
| game_date | 2026-08-08 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.325 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.303 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 78.851047778 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.274010278 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.438 | 1.000 | -0.438 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.375 | 1.000 | 0.625 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.833 | 1.000 | 0.167 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.765 | 0.100 | 0.235 | 0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.688 | 0.000 | 1.312 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3333, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3333, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "670167",
"player_name": "John Schreiber",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "KC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.6667,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3333,
"percent_delta": 0.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3333,
"percent_delta": 0.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3333,
"percent_delta": 0.4999,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3333,
"percent_delta": 0.4999,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 3.200 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 2.4545 | 2.1818 | 0.2727 | 0.5454 | 1.6364 | 1.0909 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 9.000 | 9.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 6.7500 | 2.2500 | 0.7500 | 1.1250 | 1.1250 | 0.7500 | 0.1250 |
| season | 0.20 | 48 | 43.000 | 18.000 | 40.000 | 21.000 | 33.000 | 7.000 | 3.7674 | 1.4186 | 0.4186 | 0.9302 | 0.4884 | 0.7674 | 0.1628 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.6440 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3400 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.3185 |
| predicted_H | 0.6230 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0730 |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6560 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.7882 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.6440 | 0.3186 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.3400 | 0.6735 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.3185 | 4.3185 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.6230 | 0.8135 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.0730 | 0.5415 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 0.6560 | 1.3352 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.7882 | 1.7882 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 48 |
| Season rows before report date | 48 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 48 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 16 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.77 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 2 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 10 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 5 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | BS |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 670167 |
| playerID | 670167 |
| playerName | John Schreiber |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | KC |
| teamID | 12 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.331 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.338 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.7 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 78.968582131 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.647327521 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.578 | 0.000 | -0.578 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.711 | 1.000 | 0.289 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 1.044 | 3.000 | -0.044 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.949 | 1.000 | -0.949 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.089 | 1.000 | -1.089 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 0.1000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 0.1000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1000, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "656638",
"player_name": "Alex Lange",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "KC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.1,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.200 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 6.3529 | 1.9412 | 0.7059 | 1.4118 | 0.5294 | 1.4118 | 0.1765 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.100 | 12.000 | 14.000 | 5.000 | 12.000 | 3.000 | 10.4516 | 1.8387 | 1.1613 | 1.3548 | 0.4839 | 1.1613 | 0.2903 |
| season | 0.20 | 45 | 46.200 | 32.000 | 47.000 | 26.000 | 49.000 | 5.000 | 6.1714 | 1.5643 | 0.6857 | 1.0071 | 0.5571 | 1.0500 | 0.1071 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3560 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5640 |
| predicted_ERA | 6.6122 |
| predicted_H | 0.9150 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1410 |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8820 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.6565 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3560 | 0.1789 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.5640 | 0.7809 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 6.6122 | 6.6122 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.9150 | 0.9573 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1410 | 0.0709 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.1000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.8820 | 0.4433 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.6565 | 1.6565 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 45 |
| Season rows before report date | 45 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 45 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 0.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 1 |
| Pitches | 7 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 5 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 6.17 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 3 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 21 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 12 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | L |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 656638 |
| playerID | 656638 |
| playerName | Alex Lange |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | KC |
| teamID | 12 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.347 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.339 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.8 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 79.942775556 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.826347143 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Blake Snell |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0293 |
| ESPN Rank | 648 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 3 |
| Pre ER | 4 |
| Pre H | 11 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 12 |
| Season WHIP | 2.6667 |
| Role Avg IP | 3 |
| Recent Avg IP | 3 |
| Last Start IP | 3 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 126,
"wins": 74,
"losses": 52,
"win_pct": 0.5873,
"runs_scored": 631.0,
"runs_allowed": 482.0,
"run_differential": 149.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1825,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0079,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8254,
"offense_index": 1.115,
"defense_index": 1.1741,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
"run_differential": -21.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.114
},
"opponent": {
"team": "KC",
"games": 128,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.3906,
"runs_scored": 519.0,
"runs_allowed": 647.0,
"run_differential": -128.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0547,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.0547,
"offense_index": 0.9027,
"defense_index": 0.8886,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 3,
"losses": 7,
"win_pct": 0.3,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
"run_differential": -17.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2854
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.3994,
"offense_edge": 0.115,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0973,
"defense_strength": 0.1741,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1114,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0251,
"run_prevention": 0.9471,
"strikeout": 1.0198
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "605483",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605483",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 0.0,
"k_percent": 23.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.308,
"xwoba": 0.307,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.8,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0772,
"command_and_miss": 0.0729,
"regression_edge": 0.0286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
"barrel_edge": 0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0429,
"bb_edge": 0.0,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "605483",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.0293,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0031,
"walk_factor": 1.0,
"homer_factor": 0.9985,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "605483",
"espn_id": 33748,
"player_name": "Blake Snell",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 648,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 648,
"gp_value": 1.0,
"gp_rank": 733,
"gs_value": 1.0,
"gs_rank": 279,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 12.0,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 0.0,
"w_rank": 476,
"l_value": 1.0,
"l_rank": 381,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 3.0,
"ip_rank": 710,
"h_value": 6.0,
"h_rank": 641,
"er_value": 4.0,
"er_rank": 625,
"hr_value": 0.0,
"hr_rank": 690,
"bb_value": 2.0,
"bb_rank": 663,
"k_value": 5.0,
"k_rank": 625,
"k_per_9_value": 15.0,
"k_per_9_rank": 23,
"whip_value": 2.6666,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": -0.24,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 4.0,
"factor": 0.9989,
"adjusted": 4
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 7.0,
"factor": 0.9989,
"adjusted": 7
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9993,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 6.0,
"factor": 1.0014,
"adjusted": 6
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "insufficient_data"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 3.0,
"ER": 4,
"H": 6,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 5,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 12.0,
"WHIP": 2.6666666666666665,
"K9": 15.0,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 1,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 1,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 1,
"latest_game_date": "2026-05-09T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "605483",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 1.0
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 1.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.1667,
"prior_weight": 0.8333
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "605483",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 1,
"reference_playing_time": 4.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 1,
"totals": {
"IP": 3.0,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 18.0,
"Pitches": 77.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 3.0,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 18.0,
"Pitches": 77.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 12.0,
"WHIP": 2.6667,
"ER_per_IP": 1.33333,
"H_per_IP": 2.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.66667,
"SO_per_IP": 1.66667,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 1,
"totals": {
"IP": 3.0,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 18.0,
"Pitches": 77.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 3.0,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 18.0,
"Pitches": 77.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 12.0,
"WHIP": 2.6667,
"ER_per_IP": 1.33333,
"H_per_IP": 2.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.66667,
"SO_per_IP": 1.66667,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 1,
"totals": {
"IP": 3.0,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 18.0,
"Pitches": 77.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 3.0,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 18.0,
"Pitches": 77.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 12.0,
"WHIP": 2.6667,
"ER_per_IP": 1.33333,
"H_per_IP": 2.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.66667,
"SO_per_IP": 1.66667,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 4.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.622,
"predicted_H": 4.703,
"predicted_BB": 1.691,
"predicted_SO": 4.426,
"predicted_HR": 0.509,
"predicted_ERA": 5.7393,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.5553
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.7021,
"form_weight": 0.2979,
"form_reliability": 0.1667,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 1.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.1667,
"prior_weight": 0.8333
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 4.1,
"form": 4.0,
"final": 4.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 4.0,
"form": 2.622,
"final": 3.5895,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 11.0,
"form": 4.703,
"final": 9.1239,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.691,
"final": 0.5038,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 4.426,
"final": 2.7228,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.509,
"final": 0.1516,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 5.7393,
"final": 5.7393,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.5553,
"final": 1.5553,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Alex Vesia |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.3171 |
| ESPN Rank | 186 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 2.8770 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1803 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 126,
"wins": 74,
"losses": 52,
"win_pct": 0.5873,
"runs_scored": 631.0,
"runs_allowed": 482.0,
"run_differential": 149.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1825,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0079,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8254,
"offense_index": 1.115,
"defense_index": 1.1741,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
"run_differential": -21.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.114
},
"opponent": {
"team": "KC",
"games": 128,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.3906,
"runs_scored": 519.0,
"runs_allowed": 647.0,
"run_differential": -128.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0547,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.0547,
"offense_index": 0.9027,
"defense_index": 0.8886,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 3,
"losses": 7,
"win_pct": 0.3,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
"run_differential": -17.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2854
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.3994,
"offense_edge": 0.115,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0973,
"defense_strength": 0.1741,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1114,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0251,
"run_prevention": 0.9471,
"strikeout": 1.0198
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "681911",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "681911",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 142.0,
"k_percent": 32.1,
"bb_percent": 16.1,
"woba": 0.242,
"xwoba": 0.273,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 35.6,
"avg_best_speed": 78.125,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.8785,
"whiff_percent": 36.2,
"swing_percent": 47.1
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.7783,
"command_and_miss": 0.8114,
"regression_edge": -0.8857,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0857,
"barrel_edge": 0.0444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.3,
"whiff_edge": 1.5286,
"bb_edge": -1.8,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "681911",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.3171,
"sample_weight": 0.568,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.973,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0669,
"walk_factor": 1.0818,
"homer_factor": 0.9727,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.031,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "681911",
"espn_id": 42622,
"player_name": "Alex Vesia",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 186,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 186,
"gp_value": 52.0,
"gp_rank": 25,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 2.877,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 1.0,
"w_rank": 368,
"l_value": 1.0,
"l_rank": 381,
"sv_value": 3.0,
"sv_rank": 57,
"hld_value": 17.0,
"hld_rank": 16,
"ip_value": 40.2,
"ip_rank": 309,
"h_value": 21.0,
"h_rank": 449,
"er_value": 13.0,
"er_rank": 387,
"hr_value": 2.0,
"hr_rank": 465,
"bb_value": 27.0,
"bb_rank": 142,
"k_value": 55.0,
"k_rank": 197,
"k_per_9_value": 12.172132,
"k_per_9_rank": 17,
"whip_value": 1.1803,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.81,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9847,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9847,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0465,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.9845,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.038,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.0,
"ER": 5,
"H": 5,
"BB": 7,
"SO": 10,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 5.0,
"WHIP": 1.3333333333333333,
"K9": 10.0,
"HR9": 2.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "681911",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 8.133,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6193,
"prior_weight": 0.3807
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "681911",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 52,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
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"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 2.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 19.0,
"Pitches": 71.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 0.4,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.8,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.0714,
"ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
"H_per_IP": 0.42857,
"BB_per_IP": 0.64286,
"SO_per_IP": 0.64286,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
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"totals": {
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"ER": 5.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 7.0,
"SO": 10.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 38.0,
"Pitches": 135.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.5,
"R": 0.5,
"H": 0.5,
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"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 3.8,
"Pitches": 13.5
},
"rates": {
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"H_per_IP": 0.55556,
"BB_per_IP": 0.77778,
"SO_per_IP": 1.11111,
"HR_per_IP": 0.22222
}
},
"season": {
"games": 52,
"totals": {
"IP": 40.2,
"ER": 13.0,
"R": 13.0,
"H": 21.0,
"BB": 27.0,
"SO": 55.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 171.0,
"Pitches": 730.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.25,
"R": 0.25,
"H": 0.4038,
"BB": 0.5192,
"SO": 1.0577,
"HR": 0.0385,
"BF": 3.2885,
"Pitches": 14.0385
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.877,
"WHIP": 1.1803,
"ER_per_IP": 0.31967,
"H_per_IP": 0.51639,
"BB_per_IP": 0.66393,
"SO_per_IP": 1.35246,
"HR_per_IP": 0.04918
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.45,
"predicted_H": 0.646,
"predicted_BB": 0.544,
"predicted_SO": 0.913,
"predicted_HR": 0.106,
"predicted_ERA": 4.2232,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2412
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5108,
"form_weight": 0.4892,
"form_reliability": 0.6193,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 8.133,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6193,
"prior_weight": 0.3807
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.45,
"final": 0.2201,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.646,
"final": 0.316,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.544,
"final": 0.2661,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.913,
"final": 0.4466,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.106,
"final": 0.0519,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.2232,
"final": 4.2232,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2412,
"final": 1.2412,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Edwin Díaz |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.3111 |
| ESPN Rank | 775 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 7.3636 |
| Season WHIP | 1.9091 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 126,
"wins": 74,
"losses": 52,
"win_pct": 0.5873,
"runs_scored": 631.0,
"runs_allowed": 482.0,
"run_differential": 149.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1825,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0079,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8254,
"offense_index": 1.115,
"defense_index": 1.1741,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
"run_differential": -21.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.114
},
"opponent": {
"team": "KC",
"games": 128,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.3906,
"runs_scored": 519.0,
"runs_allowed": 647.0,
"run_differential": -128.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0547,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.0547,
"offense_index": 0.9027,
"defense_index": 0.8886,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 3,
"losses": 7,
"win_pct": 0.3,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
"run_differential": -17.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2854
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.3994,
"offense_edge": 0.115,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0973,
"defense_strength": 0.1741,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1114,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0251,
"run_prevention": 0.9471,
"strikeout": 1.0198
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "621242",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621242",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 31.0,
"k_percent": 26.8,
"bb_percent": 14.3,
"woba": 0.475,
"xwoba": 0.35,
"sweet_spot_percent": 46.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 53.1,
"avg_best_speed": 83.0109,
"avg_hyper_speed": 95.158,
"whiff_percent": 19.6,
"swing_percent": 47.1
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -1.4666,
"command_and_miss": -0.2693,
"regression_edge": 2.0,
"xwoba_edge": -1.1143,
"barrel_edge": -0.5778,
"hard_hit_edge": -2.2,
"whiff_edge": -0.8429,
"bb_edge": -1.35,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "621242",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": -0.3111,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0264,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9967,
"walk_factor": 1.0486,
"homer_factor": 1.0754,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.125,
"regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "621242",
"espn_id": 35394,
"player_name": "Edwin Diaz",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 775,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 775,
"gp_value": 13.0,
"gp_rank": 437,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 9.8181,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 2.0,
"w_rank": 281,
"l_value": 1.0,
"l_rank": 381,
"sv_value": 6.0,
"sv_rank": 32,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 11.0,
"ip_rank": 552,
"h_value": 17.0,
"h_rank": 493,
"er_value": 12.0,
"er_rank": 412,
"hr_value": 3.0,
"hr_rank": 387,
"bb_value": 8.0,
"bb_rank": 483,
"k_value": 16.0,
"k_rank": 482,
"k_per_9_value": 13.090909,
"k_per_9_rank": 23,
"whip_value": 2.2727,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": -0.85,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0119,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0119,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0219,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0339,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9985,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 8.0,
"ER": 8,
"H": 13,
"BB": 5,
"SO": 12,
"HR": 3,
"ERA": 9.0,
"WHIP": 2.25,
"K9": 13.5,
"HR9": 3.375,
"games_pitched": 9,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "621242",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 2.2,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.3055,
"prior_weight": 0.6945
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "621242",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 12,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.0,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 4.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 6.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 21.0,
"Pitches": 94.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.8,
"R": 0.8,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 1.2,
"HR": 0.4,
"BF": 4.2,
"Pitches": 18.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 9.0,
"WHIP": 2.25,
"ER_per_IP": 1.0,
"H_per_IP": 1.5,
"BB_per_IP": 0.75,
"SO_per_IP": 1.5,
"HR_per_IP": 0.5
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.0,
"ER": 9.0,
"R": 9.0,
"H": 14.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 14.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 48.0,
"Pitches": 199.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.9,
"R": 0.9,
"H": 1.4,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 1.4,
"HR": 0.3,
"BF": 4.8,
"Pitches": 19.9
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 2.2222,
"ER_per_IP": 1.0,
"H_per_IP": 1.55556,
"BB_per_IP": 0.66667,
"SO_per_IP": 1.55556,
"HR_per_IP": 0.33333
}
},
"season": {
"games": 12,
"totals": {
"IP": 11.0,
"ER": 9.0,
"R": 9.0,
"H": 14.0,
"BB": 7.0,
"SO": 16.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 55.0,
"Pitches": 226.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.75,
"R": 0.75,
"H": 1.1667,
"BB": 0.5833,
"SO": 1.3333,
"HR": 0.25,
"BF": 4.5833,
"Pitches": 18.8333
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 7.3636,
"WHIP": 1.9091,
"ER_per_IP": 0.81818,
"H_per_IP": 1.27273,
"BB_per_IP": 0.63636,
"SO_per_IP": 1.45455,
"HR_per_IP": 0.27273
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.611,
"predicted_H": 1.074,
"predicted_BB": 0.442,
"predicted_SO": 1.076,
"predicted_HR": 0.214,
"predicted_ERA": 5.7657,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.5893
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.6434,
"form_weight": 0.3566,
"form_reliability": 0.3055,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 2.2,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.3055,
"prior_weight": 0.6945
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.611,
"final": 0.8613,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.074,
"final": 1.0264,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.442,
"final": 0.1576,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.076,
"final": 1.0271,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.214,
"final": 0.0763,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 5.7657,
"final": 5.7657,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.5893,
"final": 1.5893,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jack Dreyer |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.3170 |
| ESPN Rank | 193 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 3.1875 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0208 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 126,
"wins": 74,
"losses": 52,
"win_pct": 0.5873,
"runs_scored": 631.0,
"runs_allowed": 482.0,
"run_differential": 149.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1825,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0079,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8254,
"offense_index": 1.115,
"defense_index": 1.1741,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
"run_differential": -21.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.114
},
"opponent": {
"team": "KC",
"games": 128,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.3906,
"runs_scored": 519.0,
"runs_allowed": 647.0,
"run_differential": -128.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
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"avg_runs_allowed": 5.0547,
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}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Tanner Scott |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.3995 |
| ESPN Rank | 97 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 2 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 2.2657 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9231 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
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},
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"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 9.533,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6559,
"prior_weight": 0.3441
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.207,
"final": 0.1045,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.767,
"final": 0.8824,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.61,
"final": 0.3078,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.942,
"final": 0.4753,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.056,
"final": 0.0283,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.0707,
"final": 2.0707,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.5272,
"final": 1.5272,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Evan Phillips |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0666 |
| ESPN Rank | 453 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 4.2188 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1250 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 126,
"wins": 74,
"losses": 52,
"win_pct": 0.5873,
"runs_scored": 631.0,
"runs_allowed": 482.0,
"run_differential": 149.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1825,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.0079,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8254,
"offense_index": 1.115,
"defense_index": 1.1741,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
"run_differential": -21.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.114
},
"opponent": {
"team": "KC",
"games": 128,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.3906,
"runs_scored": 519.0,
"runs_allowed": 647.0,
"run_differential": -128.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0547,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.0547,
"offense_index": 0.9027,
"defense_index": 0.8886,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 3,
"losses": 7,
"win_pct": 0.3,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
"run_differential": -17.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2854
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.3994,
"offense_edge": 0.115,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0973,
"defense_strength": 0.1741,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1114,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0251,
"run_prevention": 0.9471,
"strikeout": 1.0198
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "623465",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "623465",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 22.0,
"k_percent": 25.0,
"bb_percent": 4.5,
"woba": 0.339,
"xwoba": 0.319,
"sweet_spot_percent": 29.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 16.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
"avg_best_speed": 84.6119,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.194,
"whiff_percent": 25.7,
"swing_percent": 44.0
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.5569,
"command_and_miss": 0.41,
"regression_edge": 0.5714,
"xwoba_edge": -0.2286,
"barrel_edge": -2.0,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.3143,
"whiff_edge": 0.0286,
"bb_edge": 1.1,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "623465",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": -0.0666,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0057,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0077,
"walk_factor": 0.9604,
"homer_factor": 1.0694,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.02,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "623465",
"espn_id": 37911,
"player_name": "Evan Phillips",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 453,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 453,
"gp_value": 13.0,
"gp_rank": 437,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 4.2187,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 0.0,
"w_rank": 476,
"l_value": 2.0,
"l_rank": 279,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 2.0,
"hld_rank": 205,
"ip_value": 10.2,
"ip_rank": 553,
"h_value": 10.0,
"h_rank": 576,
"er_value": 5.0,
"er_rank": 596,
"hr_value": 4.0,
"hr_rank": 320,
"bb_value": 2.0,
"bb_rank": 663,
"k_value": 11.0,
"k_rank": 526,
"k_per_9_value": 9.28125,
"k_per_9_rank": 25,
"whip_value": 1.125,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.01,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0026,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0026,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9822,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0312,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0035,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 7.2,
"ER": 3,
"H": 6,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 7,
"HR": 3,
"ERA": 3.5217391304347827,
"WHIP": 1.0434782608695652,
"K9": 8.217391304347826,
"HR9": 3.5217391304347827,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-09T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "623465",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 2.133,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.2991,
"prior_weight": 0.7009
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "623465",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 13,
"reference_playing_time": 0.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 3.1,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 2.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 2.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 12.0,
"Pitches": 41.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.4,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.4,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 2.4,
"Pitches": 8.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 0.6,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.6,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 0.6,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 7.2,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 7.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 31.0,
"Pitches": 110.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.3,
"R": 0.3,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 0.7,
"HR": 0.3,
"BF": 3.1,
"Pitches": 11.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.5217,
"WHIP": 1.0435,
"ER_per_IP": 0.3913,
"H_per_IP": 0.78261,
"BB_per_IP": 0.26087,
"SO_per_IP": 0.91304,
"HR_per_IP": 0.3913
}
},
"season": {
"games": 13,
"totals": {
"IP": 10.2,
"ER": 5.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 10.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 11.0,
"HR": 4.0,
"BF": 44.0,
"Pitches": 168.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.3846,
"R": 0.3846,
"H": 0.7692,
"BB": 0.1538,
"SO": 0.8462,
"HR": 0.3077,
"BF": 3.3846,
"Pitches": 12.9231
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.2188,
"WHIP": 1.125,
"ER_per_IP": 0.46875,
"H_per_IP": 0.9375,
"BB_per_IP": 0.1875,
"SO_per_IP": 1.03125,
"HR_per_IP": 0.375
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_ER": 0.279,
"predicted_H": 0.6,
"predicted_BB": 0.194,
"predicted_SO": 0.607,
"predicted_HR": 0.112,
"predicted_ERA": 3.7659,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.1915
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.6461,
"form_weight": 0.3539,
"form_reliability": 0.2991,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 2.133,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.2991,
"prior_weight": 0.7009
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.2,
"form": 0.2,
"final": 0.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.279,
"final": 0.0987,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.6,
"final": 0.2123,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.194,
"final": 0.0687,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.607,
"final": 0.8609,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.112,
"final": 0.0396,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.7659,
"final": 3.7659,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.1915,
"final": 1.1915,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.204 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.180 | 1.000 | -0.180 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 | -0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.833 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.866 | 4.000 | -0.866 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.292 | 0.667 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.289 | 0.500 | 0.377 | 0.167 |
| predicted_BB | 0.639 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.686 | 0.000 | -0.686 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.022 | 0.000 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.120 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.118 | 2.000 | 0.882 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.241 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.232 | 0.000 | -0.232 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.393 | 0.750 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.399 | 0.500 | 0.351 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.685 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.706 | 2.000 | 0.294 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.648 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.661 | 1.000 | -0.661 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.543 | 0.667 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.528 | 0.750 | 0.138 | -0.083 |
| predicted_SO | 1.046 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.069 | 0.000 | -0.069 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 1.1200 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.8800, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.8330 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.8330, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.5430 -> 0.5544 (boost 0.0114, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.5544 -> 0.5738 (boost 0.0194, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.6096 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3904, better) | predicted_HR: 0.2672 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2672, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.305 HR/AB=0.069 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.7311 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2689, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5738 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.3238, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.5738 (boost 0.3238, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "660271",
"player_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
"position": "DH",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.204,
"predicted_3B": 0.019,
"predicted_AB": 3.833,
"predicted_AVG": 0.292,
"predicted_BB": 0.639,
"predicted_H": 1.12,
"predicted_HR": 0.241,
"predicted_OBP": 0.393,
"predicted_R": 0.685,
"predicted_RBI": 0.648,
"predicted_SLG": 0.543,
"predicted_SO": 1.046
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2027,
"predicted_3B": 0.0155,
"predicted_AB": 3.8516,
"predicted_AVG": 0.295,
"predicted_BB": 0.5996,
"predicted_H": 1.1369,
"predicted_HBP": 0.028,
"predicted_HR": 0.2557,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3904,
"predicted_R": 0.6906,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6762,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5544,
"predicted_SO": 1.0499
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.204,
"after": 0.2027,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.0064,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0155,
"delta": -0.0035,
"percent_delta": -0.1842,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.833,
"after": 3.8516,
"delta": 0.0186,
"percent_delta": 0.0049,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.292,
"after": 0.295,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0103,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.639,
"after": 0.5996,
"delta": -0.0394,
"percent_delta": -0.0617,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.12,
"after": 1.1369,
"delta": 0.0169,
"percent_delta": 0.0151,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.2557,
"delta": 0.0147,
"percent_delta": 0.061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.393,
"after": 0.3904,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.0066,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.685,
"after": 0.6906,
"delta": 0.0056,
"percent_delta": 0.0082,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.648,
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"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.305,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5738,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.305,
"delta": 0.055,
"percent_delta": 0.2201,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.4,
"delta": -0.0,
"percent_delta": -0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.5738,
"delta": 0.3238,
"percent_delta": 1.2953,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.5738,
"delta": 0.3238,
"percent_delta": 1.2953,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.204,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.204,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.019,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.833,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.833,
"percent_delta": -0.2173,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.292,
"after": 0.305,
"delta": 0.013,
"percent_delta": 0.0445,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.639,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.639,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.12,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.88,
"percent_delta": 0.7857,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.241,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.393,
"after": 0.4,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0178,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.685,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.315,
"percent_delta": 0.4599,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.648,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.648,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.543,
"after": 0.5738,
"delta": 0.0308,
"percent_delta": 0.0567,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.046,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.046,
"percent_delta": -0.044,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.12,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.88,
"percent_delta": 0.7857,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.833,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.833,
"percent_delta": -0.2173,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.204 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.833 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.292 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.639 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.120 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.241 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.393 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.685 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.648 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.543 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.046 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.203 | -0.001 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.852 | 0.019 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.295 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.600 | -0.039 |
| predicted_H | 1.137 | 0.017 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.028 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.256 | 0.015 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.390 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.691 | 0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.676 | 0.028 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.554 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 1.050 | 0.004 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.203 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.852 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.305 | 0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.610 | 0.010 |
| predicted_H | 1.175 | 0.038 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.267 | 0.012 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.400 | 0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.731 | 0.040 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.716 | 0.040 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.574 | 0.019 |
| predicted_SO | 1.032 | -0.017 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.305 HR/AB=0.069
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.203 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.148 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.055 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.390 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.175 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.267 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.400 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.269 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.284 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.324 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.032 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.3000 | 0.3636 | 0.6500 | 0.3000 | 0.1000 | 0.2500 | 0.1000 | 0.3000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 13.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | 5.000 | 10.000 | 0.3333 | 0.4091 | 0.6154 | 0.3333 | 0.0769 | 0.1795 | 0.1282 | 0.2564 |
| season | 0.60 | 108 | - | 414.000 | 121.000 | 22.000 | 2.000 | 26.000 | 70.000 | 74.000 | 69.000 | 113.000 | 0.2923 | 0.3955 | 0.5435 | 0.2923 | 0.0628 | 0.1691 | 0.1667 | 0.2730 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2010 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0110 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8760 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2990 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5480 |
| predicted_H | 1.1590 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0280 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2750 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3869 |
| predicted_R | 0.6980 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7130 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5694 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0550 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2040 | 0.2010 | 0.2027 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0190 | 0.0110 | 0.0155 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8330 | 3.8760 | 3.8516 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2920 | 0.2990 | 0.2950 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.6390 | 0.5480 | 0.5996 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1200 | 1.1590 | 1.1369 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0280 | 0.0280 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2410 | 0.2750 | 0.2557 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3930 | 0.3869 | 0.3904 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6850 | 0.6980 | 0.6906 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6480 | 0.7130 | 0.6762 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5430 | 0.5694 | 0.5544 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0460 | 1.0550 | 1.0499 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 449 |
| Season rows before report date | 449 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 108 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 1 |
| season_avg | 0.292 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 3 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 660271 |
| playerID | 660271 |
| playerName | Shohei Ohtani |
| pos | TWP |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.393 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.407 |
| sl_xba | 0.295 |
| sl_xslg | 0.569 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 16.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 52.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 93.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.150 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.159 | 1.000 | -0.159 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.580 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.536 | 4.000 | 0.464 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.226 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.264 | 0.250 | -0.264 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.439 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.493 | 0.000 | -0.493 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.810 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.935 | 1.000 | -0.935 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.240 | 0.000 | -0.240 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.360 | 0.250 | -0.360 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.570 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.677 | 0.000 | -0.677 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.970 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.580 | 3.000 | -0.580 | -3.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.468 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.521 | 0.500 | -0.521 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.991 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.973 | 2.000 | 1.027 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.9910 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0090, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.9700 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9700, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.9910 -> 1.1187 (boost 0.1277, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.5800 -> 3.4390 (deboost -0.1410, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.2855 -> 0.3088 (boost 0.0233, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | predicted_AB: 3.4390 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.5610, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4096 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4096, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.056 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5443 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4557, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2265 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0235, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4493 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1993, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4493 (boost 0.1993, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2265 (deboost -0.0235, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "571970",
"player_name": "Max Muncy",
"position": "3B",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"predicted_BB": 0.439,
"predicted_H": 0.81,
"predicted_HR": 0.2,
"predicted_OBP": 0.283,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.97,
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},
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
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},
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},
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{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2265,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3088,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4493,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2265,
"delta": -0.0235,
"percent_delta": -0.0941,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3088,
"delta": 0.0588,
"percent_delta": 0.2352,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4493,
"delta": 0.1993,
"percent_delta": 0.7972,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4493,
"delta": 0.1993,
"percent_delta": 0.7972,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2265,
"delta": -0.0235,
"percent_delta": -0.0941,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.15,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.15,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.58,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.42,
"percent_delta": 0.1173,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.226,
"after": 0.2265,
"delta": 0.0005,
"percent_delta": 0.0022,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.439,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.439,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.81,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.81,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.283,
"after": 0.3088,
"delta": 0.0258,
"percent_delta": 0.0912,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.57,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.57,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.97,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.97,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.468,
"after": 0.4493,
"delta": -0.0187,
"percent_delta": -0.04,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.991,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.009,
"percent_delta": 1.0182,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.991,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.009,
"percent_delta": 1.0182,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.97,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.97,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.150 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.580 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.226 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.439 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.810 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.570 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.970 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.468 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.991 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.151 | 0.001 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.439 | -0.141 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.403 | -0.036 |
| predicted_H | 0.754 | -0.056 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.191 | -0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.285 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.514 | -0.056 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.841 | -0.129 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.450 | -0.018 |
| predicted_SO | 1.119 | 0.128 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.151 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.439 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | 0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.410 | 0.007 |
| predicted_H | 0.779 | 0.025 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | 0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | 0.023 |
| predicted_R | 0.544 | 0.030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.890 | 0.049 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.449 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 1.100 | -0.019 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.056
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.151 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.561 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.023 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.221 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.200 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.059 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.456 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.110 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.199 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.100 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 0.1333 | 0.1875 | 0.4000 | 0.1333 | 0.0667 | 0.4000 | 0.0667 | 0.6000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 31.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 17.000 | 0.1613 | 0.2353 | 0.2903 | 0.1613 | 0.0323 | 0.1935 | 0.0968 | 0.5484 |
| season | 0.60 | 107 | - | 355.000 | 87.000 | 16.000 | 1.000 | 22.000 | 55.000 | 61.000 | 47.000 | 106.000 | 0.2451 | 0.3383 | 0.4817 | 0.2451 | 0.0620 | 0.1549 | 0.1324 | 0.2986 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1520 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2520 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2089 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3550 |
| predicted_H | 0.6790 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0170 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1800 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2888 |
| predicted_R | 0.4400 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6690 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4258 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2880 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1500 | 0.1520 | 0.1509 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0060 | 0.0077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5800 | 3.2520 | 3.4390 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2260 | 0.2089 | 0.2187 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4390 | 0.3550 | 0.4029 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8100 | 0.6790 | 0.7537 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0170 | 0.0170 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2000 | 0.1800 | 0.1914 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2830 | 0.2888 | 0.2855 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5700 | 0.4400 | 0.5141 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.9700 | 0.6690 | 0.8406 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4680 | 0.4258 | 0.4499 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9910 | 1.2880 | 1.1187 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 371 |
| Season rows before report date | 371 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 107 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.245 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 3 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 571970 |
| playerID | 571970 |
| playerName | Max Muncy |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.357 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.345 |
| sl_xba | 0.237 |
| sl_xslg | 0.466 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 13.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 45.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.198 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.216 | 0.000 | -0.216 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.240 | 4.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.969 | 3.000 | 0.031 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | 0.000 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.270 | 0.000 | -0.270 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.362 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.369 | 1.000 | -0.369 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.057 | 0.000 | -0.057 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.380 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.073 | 0.000 | -1.073 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.177 | 0.000 | -0.177 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.349 | 0.000 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.336 | 0.250 | -0.336 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.569 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.658 | 0.000 | -0.658 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.750 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.687 | 0.000 | -0.687 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.477 | 0.000 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.465 | 0.000 | -0.465 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.871 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.872 | 1.000 | -0.872 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 10 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AVG: 0.2640 -> 0.2795 (boost 0.0155, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.3800 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.3800, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | predicted_AVG: 0.2640 -> 0.2724 (boost 0.0084, better) | predicted_AB: 5.2400 -> 4.6292 (deboost -0.6108, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2724 -> 0.2795 (boost 0.0071, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3513 -> 0.3355 (deboost -0.0158, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 4.6292 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.3708, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3901 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3901, worse) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=5.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.041 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5354 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4646, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4668 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.2668, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | - | predicted_AB: 5.0000 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2000 -> 0.4668 (boost 0.2668, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "681624",
"player_name": "Andy Pages",
"position": "CF",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.198,
"predicted_3B": 0.017,
"predicted_AB": 5.24,
"predicted_AVG": 0.264,
"predicted_BB": 0.362,
"predicted_H": 1.38,
"predicted_HR": 0.24,
"predicted_OBP": 0.349,
"predicted_R": 0.569,
"predicted_RBI": 0.75,
"predicted_SLG": 0.477,
"predicted_SO": 0.871
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.198,
"predicted_3B": 0.014,
"predicted_AB": 4.6292,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2724,
"predicted_BB": 0.3837,
"predicted_H": 1.2521,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.2045,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3513,
"predicted_R": 0.5057,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6681,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4714,
"predicted_SO": 0.9096
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.198,
"after": 0.198,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.017,
"after": 0.014,
"delta": -0.003,
"percent_delta": -0.1765,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.24,
"after": 4.6292,
"delta": -0.6108,
"percent_delta": -0.1166,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.264,
"after": 0.2724,
"delta": 0.0084,
"percent_delta": 0.0318,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.362,
"after": 0.3837,
"delta": 0.0217,
"percent_delta": 0.0599,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.38,
"after": 1.2521,
"delta": -0.1279,
"percent_delta": -0.0927,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2045,
"delta": -0.0355,
"percent_delta": -0.1479,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.349,
"after": 0.3513,
"delta": 0.0023,
"percent_delta": 0.0066,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.569,
"after": 0.5057,
"delta": -0.0633,
"percent_delta": -0.1112,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 0.6681,
"delta": -0.0819,
"percent_delta": -0.1092,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.477,
"after": 0.4714,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -0.0117,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.871,
"after": 0.9096,
"delta": 0.0386,
"percent_delta": 0.0443,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.264,
"after": 0.2724,
"delta": 0.0084,
"percent_delta": 0.0318,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.24,
"after": 4.6292,
"delta": -0.6108,
"percent_delta": -0.1166,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 116
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.198,
"predicted_3B": 0.014,
"predicted_AB": 4.6292,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2795,
"predicted_BB": 0.3901,
"predicted_H": 1.2939,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.2137,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3355,
"predicted_R": 0.5354,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7073,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4668,
"predicted_SO": 0.8945
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.198,
"after": 0.198,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.014,
"after": 0.014,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.6292,
"after": 4.6292,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2724,
"after": 0.2795,
"delta": 0.0071,
"percent_delta": 0.0261,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3837,
"after": 0.3901,
"delta": 0.0064,
"percent_delta": 0.0167,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.2521,
"after": 1.2939,
"delta": 0.0418,
"percent_delta": 0.0334,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.026,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2045,
"after": 0.2137,
"delta": 0.0092,
"percent_delta": 0.045,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3513,
"after": 0.3355,
"delta": -0.0158,
"percent_delta": -0.045,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5057,
"after": 0.5354,
"delta": 0.0297,
"percent_delta": 0.0587,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6681,
"after": 0.7073,
"delta": 0.0392,
"percent_delta": 0.0587,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4714,
"after": 0.4668,
"delta": -0.0046,
"percent_delta": -0.0098,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9096,
"after": 0.8945,
"delta": -0.0151,
"percent_delta": -0.0166,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2724,
"after": 0.2795,
"delta": 0.0071,
"percent_delta": 0.0261,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3513,
"after": 0.3355,
"delta": -0.0158,
"percent_delta": -0.045,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 5 (raw=5.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.041",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.198,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.198,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.014,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.014,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.6292,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.3708,
"percent_delta": 0.0801,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3901,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3901,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.2939,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.2939,
"percent_delta": -0.2271,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.026,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2137,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2137,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7073,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2927,
"percent_delta": 0.4138,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8945,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1055,
"percent_delta": 0.1179,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.6292,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.3708,
"percent_delta": 0.0801,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3901,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3901,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5354,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4646,
"percent_delta": 0.8678,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5354,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4646,
"percent_delta": 0.8678,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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"better_metrics": 1,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2795,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3355,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4668,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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},
{
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"material": false
},
{
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"percent_delta": 1.3341,
"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
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"direction": "boost",
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0102,
"percent_delta": -0.0214,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 10,
"better_metrics": 2,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.198 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.240 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.362 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.380 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.240 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.349 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.569 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.750 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.477 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.871 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.198 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 4.629 | -0.611 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.272 | 0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.384 | 0.022 |
| predicted_H | 1.252 | -0.128 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.204 | -0.036 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.351 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.506 | -0.063 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.668 | -0.082 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.471 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.910 | 0.039 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.198 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.629 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.280 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.390 | 0.006 |
| predicted_H | 1.294 | 0.042 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.214 | 0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.336 | -0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.535 | 0.030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.707 | 0.039 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.467 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 0.894 | -0.015 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=5.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.041
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.198 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.371 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | -0.080 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.390 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.294 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.214 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.200 | -0.136 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.465 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.293 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.200 | -0.267 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.106 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 0.3333 | 0.4286 | 0.5556 | 0.3333 | 0.0556 | 0.1111 | 0.1667 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 10.000 | 0.2821 | 0.3488 | 0.4103 | 0.2821 | 0.0256 | 0.1282 | 0.1026 | 0.2564 |
| season | 0.60 | 116 | - | 451.000 | 122.000 | 23.000 | 2.000 | 19.000 | 75.000 | 66.000 | 42.000 | 101.000 | 0.2705 | 0.3360 | 0.4568 | 0.2705 | 0.0421 | 0.1663 | 0.0931 | 0.2240 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1980 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8310 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2833 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4120 |
| predicted_H | 1.0850 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0260 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1580 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3542 |
| predicted_R | 0.4230 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5610 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4640 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9600 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1980 | 0.1980 | 0.1980 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 | 0.0100 | 0.0140 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.2400 | 3.8310 | 4.6292 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2640 | 0.2833 | 0.2724 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3620 | 0.4120 | 0.3837 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.3800 | 1.0850 | 1.2521 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0260 | 0.0260 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2400 | 0.1580 | 0.2045 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3490 | 0.3542 | 0.3513 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5690 | 0.4230 | 0.5057 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7500 | 0.5610 | 0.6681 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4770 | 0.4640 | 0.4714 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8710 | 0.9600 | 0.9096 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 453 |
| Season rows before report date | 453 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 116 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.271 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 681624 |
| playerID | 681624 |
| playerName | Andy Pages |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.346 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.337 |
| sl_xba | 0.268 |
| sl_xslg | 0.436 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.165 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.188 | 0.000 | -0.188 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.028 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.027 | 0.000 | -0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.578 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.735 | 1.000 | 0.265 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.208 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.246 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.477 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.516 | 1.000 | -0.516 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.320 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.920 | 0.000 | 1.080 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.094 | 0.000 | 0.906 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.351 | 0.500 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.338 | 0.500 | 0.162 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.587 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.629 | 1.000 | 0.371 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.240 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.542 | 0.000 | 0.458 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.409 | 1.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.386 | 0.000 | 0.864 | 1.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.771 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.829 | 0.000 | 0.171 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.3200 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.6800, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.4770 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4770, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.3200 -> 0.5691 (boost 0.2491, better) | predicted_SO: 0.7710 -> 0.6834 (deboost -0.0876, better) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4312 -> 0.3298 (deboost -0.1014, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.4770 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5230, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3441 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3441, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.031 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6613 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3387, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.2668 -> 0.4000 (boost 0.1332, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3298 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.0798, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3298 (boost 0.0798, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.4000 -> 0.2668 (deboost -0.1332, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "663656",
"player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
"position": "RF",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.165,
"predicted_3B": 0.028,
"predicted_AB": 3.578,
"predicted_AVG": 0.208,
"predicted_BB": 0.477,
"predicted_H": 0.32,
"predicted_HR": 0.08,
"predicted_OBP": 0.351,
"predicted_R": 0.587,
"predicted_RBI": 0.24,
"predicted_SLG": 0.409,
"predicted_SO": 0.771
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1365,
"predicted_3B": 0.0487,
"predicted_AB": 3.515,
"predicted_AVG": 0.231,
"predicted_BB": 0.4692,
"predicted_H": 0.5691,
"predicted_HBP": 0.017,
"predicted_HR": 0.1076,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3501,
"predicted_R": 0.6246,
"predicted_RBI": 0.325,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4312,
"predicted_SO": 0.6834
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.165,
"after": 0.1365,
"delta": -0.0285,
"percent_delta": -0.1727,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.028,
"after": 0.0487,
"delta": 0.0207,
"percent_delta": 0.7393,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.578,
"after": 3.515,
"delta": -0.063,
"percent_delta": -0.0176,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.208,
"after": 0.231,
"delta": 0.023,
"percent_delta": 0.1106,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.477,
"after": 0.4692,
"delta": -0.0078,
"percent_delta": -0.0164,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.5691,
"delta": 0.2491,
"percent_delta": 0.7784,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.1076,
"delta": 0.0276,
"percent_delta": 0.345,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.351,
"after": 0.3501,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.0026,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.587,
"after": 0.6246,
"delta": 0.0376,
"percent_delta": 0.0641,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.325,
"delta": 0.085,
"percent_delta": 0.3542,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 0.4312,
"delta": 0.0222,
"percent_delta": 0.0543,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.771,
"after": 0.6834,
"delta": -0.0876,
"percent_delta": -0.1136,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.5691,
"delta": 0.2491,
"percent_delta": 0.7784,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.771,
"after": 0.6834,
"delta": -0.0876,
"percent_delta": -0.1136,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 109
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1365,
"predicted_3B": 0.0487,
"predicted_AB": 3.515,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1673,
"predicted_BB": 0.477,
"predicted_H": 0.5881,
"predicted_HBP": 0.017,
"predicted_HR": 0.1124,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2668,
"predicted_R": 0.6613,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3441,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3298,
"predicted_SO": 0.6721
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1365,
"after": 0.1365,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0487,
"after": 0.0487,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.515,
"after": 3.515,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.231,
"after": 0.1673,
"delta": -0.0637,
"percent_delta": -0.2758,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4692,
"after": 0.477,
"delta": 0.0078,
"percent_delta": 0.0166,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5691,
"after": 0.5881,
"delta": 0.019,
"percent_delta": 0.0334,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.017,
"after": 0.017,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1076,
"after": 0.1124,
"delta": 0.0048,
"percent_delta": 0.0446,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3501,
"after": 0.2668,
"delta": -0.0833,
"percent_delta": -0.2379,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6246,
"after": 0.6613,
"delta": 0.0367,
"percent_delta": 0.0588,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.3441,
"delta": 0.0191,
"percent_delta": 0.0588,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4312,
"after": 0.3298,
"delta": -0.1014,
"percent_delta": -0.2352,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6834,
"after": 0.6721,
"delta": -0.0113,
"percent_delta": -0.0165,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4312,
"after": 0.3298,
"delta": -0.1014,
"percent_delta": -0.2352,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.031",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1365,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1365,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0487,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0487,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.515,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.485,
"percent_delta": 0.138,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.477,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.523,
"percent_delta": 1.0964,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5881,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4119,
"percent_delta": 0.7004,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.017,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.017,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1124,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1124,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3441,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3441,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6721,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3279,
"percent_delta": 0.4879,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.477,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.523,
"percent_delta": 1.0964,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3441,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3441,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6613,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3387,
"percent_delta": 0.5122,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.25,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1673,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2668,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3298,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
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"material": true
},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.2668,
"delta": -0.1332,
"percent_delta": -0.333,
"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": 0.0798,
"percent_delta": 0.3193,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
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},
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.165,
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"delta": -0.165,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": -0.028,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.422,
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0407,
"percent_delta": -0.1957,
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"material": true
},
{
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"material": true
},
{
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"delta": 1.68,
"percent_delta": 5.25,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.08,
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"delta": 0.92,
"percent_delta": 11.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.351,
"after": 0.2668,
"delta": -0.0842,
"percent_delta": -0.2399,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.587,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.413,
"percent_delta": 0.7036,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.76,
"percent_delta": 3.1667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 0.3298,
"delta": -0.0792,
"percent_delta": -0.1936,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.771,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.229,
"percent_delta": 0.297,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.32,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.68,
"percent_delta": 5.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.477,
"after": 0.0,
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.165 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.028 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.578 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.208 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.477 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.320 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.351 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.587 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.240 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.409 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.771 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.137 | -0.028 |
| predicted_3B | 0.049 | 0.021 |
| predicted_AB | 3.515 | -0.063 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.231 | 0.023 |
| predicted_BB | 0.469 | -0.008 |
| predicted_H | 0.569 | 0.249 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.108 | 0.028 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.350 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.625 | 0.038 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.325 | 0.085 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.431 | 0.022 |
| predicted_SO | 0.683 | -0.088 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.137 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.049 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.515 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.167 | -0.064 |
| predicted_BB | 0.477 | 0.008 |
| predicted_H | 0.588 | 0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.112 | 0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.267 | -0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.661 | 0.037 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.344 | 0.019 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.330 | -0.101 |
| predicted_SO | 0.672 | -0.011 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.031
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.137 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.049 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.485 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.523 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.412 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.112 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.400 | 0.133 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.339 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.344 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.080 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.328 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.2353 | 0.3158 | 0.5294 | 0.2353 | 0.0588 | 0.1177 | 0.1177 | 0.0588 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 29.000 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 0.3448 | 0.4412 | 0.6207 | 0.3448 | 0.0690 | 0.1035 | 0.1724 | 0.1035 |
| season | 0.60 | 109 | - | 390.000 | 95.000 | 18.000 | 3.000 | 11.000 | 54.000 | 64.000 | 52.000 | 84.000 | 0.2436 | 0.3341 | 0.3897 | 0.2436 | 0.0282 | 0.1385 | 0.1333 | 0.2154 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0990 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0760 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4320 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2613 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4590 |
| predicted_H | 0.8970 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0170 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1440 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3490 |
| predicted_R | 0.6740 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4370 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4604 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5680 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1650 | 0.0990 | 0.1365 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0280 | 0.0760 | 0.0487 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5780 | 3.4320 | 3.5150 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2080 | 0.2613 | 0.2310 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4770 | 0.4590 | 0.4692 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.3200 | 0.8970 | 0.5691 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0170 | 0.0170 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.1440 | 0.1076 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3510 | 0.3490 | 0.3501 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5870 | 0.6740 | 0.6246 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2400 | 0.4370 | 0.3250 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4090 | 0.4604 | 0.4312 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7710 | 0.5680 | 0.6834 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 415 |
| Season rows before report date | 415 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 109 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.244 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH-RF |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 663656 |
| note | Walked for Hernández, T in the 6th. |
| playerID | 663656 |
| playerName | Kyle Tucker |
| pos | RF |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.324 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.336 |
| sl_xba | 0.262 |
| sl_xslg | 0.396 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.235 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.253 | 0.000 | 0.747 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.140 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.812 | 4.000 | 0.188 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.327 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.296 | 0.750 | -0.046 | -0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.443 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.534 | 0.000 | -0.534 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.350 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.128 | 3.000 | -0.128 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.143 | 0.000 | -0.143 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.362 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.385 | 0.750 | -0.135 | -0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.504 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.567 | 0.000 | 0.433 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.580 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.529 | 2.000 | -0.529 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.436 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.480 | 0.750 | 0.020 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.661 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.713 | 0.000 | -0.713 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | deboosted |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.2350 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7650, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.6610 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6610, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | - | predicted_AB: 4.1400 -> 3.9802 (deboost -0.1598, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3601 -> 0.3884 (boost 0.0283, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.5644 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4356, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.3803 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3803, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.317 HR/AB=0.020 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, weight=0.133, BvP AVG=0.533) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4809 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4809, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4461 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1961, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4461 (boost 0.1961, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "518692",
"player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
"position": "1B",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.235,
"predicted_3B": 0.009,
"predicted_AB": 4.14,
"predicted_AVG": 0.327,
"predicted_BB": 0.443,
"predicted_H": 1.35,
"predicted_HR": 0.08,
"predicted_OBP": 0.362,
"predicted_R": 0.504,
"predicted_RBI": 0.58,
"predicted_SLG": 0.436,
"predicted_SO": 0.661
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1951,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 3.9802,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3194,
"predicted_BB": 0.3741,
"predicted_H": 1.2707,
"predicted_HBP": 0.017,
"predicted_HR": 0.0804,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3601,
"predicted_R": 0.4542,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5393,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4269,
"predicted_SO": 0.5739
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.235,
"after": 0.1951,
"delta": -0.0399,
"percent_delta": -0.1698,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.14,
"after": 3.9802,
"delta": -0.1598,
"percent_delta": -0.0386,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.327,
"after": 0.3194,
"delta": -0.0076,
"percent_delta": -0.0232,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.443,
"after": 0.3741,
"delta": -0.0689,
"percent_delta": -0.1555,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.35,
"after": 1.2707,
"delta": -0.0793,
"percent_delta": -0.0587,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0804,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.362,
"after": 0.3601,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.504,
"after": 0.4542,
"delta": -0.0498,
"percent_delta": -0.0988,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.58,
"after": 0.5393,
"delta": -0.0407,
"percent_delta": -0.0702,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.436,
"after": 0.4269,
"delta": -0.0091,
"percent_delta": -0.0209,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.661,
"after": 0.5739,
"delta": -0.0871,
"percent_delta": -0.1318,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.14,
"after": 3.9802,
"delta": -0.1598,
"percent_delta": -0.0386,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 115
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1951,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 3.9802,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3299,
"predicted_BB": 0.3803,
"predicted_H": 1.3131,
"predicted_HBP": 0.017,
"predicted_HR": 0.084,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3884,
"predicted_R": 0.4809,
"predicted_RBI": 0.571,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4461,
"predicted_SO": 0.5644
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1951,
"after": 0.1951,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.9802,
"after": 3.9802,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.3194,
"after": 0.3299,
"delta": 0.0105,
"percent_delta": 0.0329,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3741,
"after": 0.3803,
"delta": 0.0062,
"percent_delta": 0.0166,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.2707,
"after": 1.3131,
"delta": 0.0424,
"percent_delta": 0.0334,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.017,
"after": 0.017,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0804,
"after": 0.084,
"delta": 0.0036,
"percent_delta": 0.0448,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3601,
"after": 0.3884,
"delta": 0.0283,
"percent_delta": 0.0786,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4542,
"after": 0.4809,
"delta": 0.0267,
"percent_delta": 0.0588,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5393,
"after": 0.571,
"delta": 0.0317,
"percent_delta": 0.0588,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4269,
"after": 0.4461,
"delta": 0.0192,
"percent_delta": 0.045,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5739,
"after": 0.5644,
"delta": -0.0095,
"percent_delta": -0.0166,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3601,
"after": 0.3884,
"delta": 0.0283,
"percent_delta": 0.0786,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.317 HR/AB=0.020",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1951,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1951,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.9802,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0198,
"percent_delta": 0.005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3803,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3803,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.3131,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.3131,
"percent_delta": -0.2384,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.017,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.017,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.084,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.084,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.571,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.429,
"percent_delta": 0.7513,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5644,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4356,
"percent_delta": 0.7718,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5644,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4356,
"percent_delta": 0.7718,
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"before": 0.235,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.765,
"percent_delta": 3.2553,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.661,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.661,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "deboosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.235 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.140 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.327 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.443 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.350 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.362 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.504 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.580 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.436 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.661 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.195 | -0.040 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.980 | -0.160 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.319 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.374 | -0.069 |
| predicted_H | 1.271 | -0.079 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.360 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.454 | -0.050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.539 | -0.041 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.427 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.574 | -0.087 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.195 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.980 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.330 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.380 | 0.006 |
| predicted_H | 1.313 | 0.042 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.084 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.388 | 0.028 |
| predicted_R | 0.481 | 0.027 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.571 | 0.032 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.446 | 0.019 |
| predicted_SO | 0.564 | -0.009 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.317 HR/AB=0.020
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, weight=0.133, BvP AVG=0.533)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.195 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.020 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.080 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.380 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.313 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.084 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.138 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.481 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.429 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.196 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.436 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.2632 | 0.2632 | 0.2632 | 0.2632 | 0.0000 | 0.1579 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 14.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.3784 | 0.3947 | 0.3784 | 0.3784 | 0.0000 | 0.1081 | 0.0270 | 0.0541 |
| season | 0.60 | 115 | - | 435.000 | 134.000 | 27.000 | 1.000 | 15.000 | 55.000 | 58.000 | 51.000 | 76.000 | 0.3080 | 0.3821 | 0.4782 | 0.3080 | 0.0345 | 0.1264 | 0.1172 | 0.1747 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1430 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7710 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3094 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2840 |
| predicted_H | 1.1670 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0170 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0810 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3577 |
| predicted_R | 0.3890 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4149 |
| predicted_SO | 0.4600 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2350 | 0.1430 | 0.1951 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0060 | 0.0077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.1400 | 3.7710 | 3.9802 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3270 | 0.3094 | 0.3194 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4430 | 0.2840 | 0.3741 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.3500 | 1.1670 | 1.2707 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0170 | 0.0170 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.0810 | 0.0804 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3620 | 0.3577 | 0.3601 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5040 | 0.3890 | 0.4542 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5800 | 0.4860 | 0.5393 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4360 | 0.4149 | 0.4269 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6610 | 0.4600 | 0.5739 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 446 |
| Season rows before report date | 446 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 115 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.308 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.75 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 3 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 3 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 518692 |
| playerID | 518692 |
| playerName | Freddie Freeman |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 15.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.371 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.379 |
| sl_xba | 0.302 |
| sl_xslg | 0.494 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.150 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.149 | 1.000 | -0.149 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.200 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.101 | 4.000 | -1.101 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | 0.667 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.236 | 0.250 | 0.431 | 0.417 |
| predicted_BB | 0.275 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.291 | 0.000 | 0.709 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.017 | 0.000 | -0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.950 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.966 | 1.000 | 1.034 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.206 | 0.000 | 0.794 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.291 | 0.750 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.288 | 0.250 | 0.462 | 0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.538 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.649 | 0.000 | 0.351 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.541 | 0.000 | 0.459 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.354 | 1.667 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.423 | 0.500 | 1.244 | 1.167 |
| predicted_SO | 0.488 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.541 | 1.000 | -0.541 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.9500 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0500, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.2000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.2000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2270 -> 0.2335 (boost 0.0065, better) | predicted_AB: 4.2000 -> 4.0414 (deboost -0.1586, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2335 -> 0.2404 (boost 0.0069, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3562 -> 0.3504 (deboost -0.0058, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | - | predicted_SO: 0.4699 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4699, better) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.023 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5263 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4737, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2404 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0096, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3504 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1004, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3504 (boost 0.1004, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2404 (deboost -0.0096, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "605141",
"player_name": "Mookie Betts",
"position": "SS",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.15,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.2,
"predicted_AVG": 0.227,
"predicted_BB": 0.275,
"predicted_H": 0.95,
"predicted_HR": 0.09,
"predicted_OBP": 0.291,
"predicted_R": 0.538,
"predicted_RBI": 0.31,
"predicted_SLG": 0.354,
"predicted_SO": 0.488
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1509,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.0414,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2335,
"predicted_BB": 0.2784,
"predicted_H": 0.9402,
"predicted_HBP": 0.009,
"predicted_HR": 0.0934,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2928,
"predicted_R": 0.4971,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2972,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3562,
"predicted_SO": 0.4778
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.15,
"after": 0.1509,
"delta": 0.0009,
"percent_delta": 0.006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2,
"after": 4.0414,
"delta": -0.1586,
"percent_delta": -0.0378,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.227,
"after": 0.2335,
"delta": 0.0065,
"percent_delta": 0.0286,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.275,
"after": 0.2784,
"delta": 0.0034,
"percent_delta": 0.0124,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.95,
"after": 0.9402,
"delta": -0.0098,
"percent_delta": -0.0103,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0934,
"delta": 0.0034,
"percent_delta": 0.0378,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.291,
"after": 0.2928,
"delta": 0.0018,
"percent_delta": 0.0062,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.538,
"after": 0.4971,
"delta": -0.0409,
"percent_delta": -0.076,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.2972,
"delta": -0.0128,
"percent_delta": -0.0413,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.354,
"after": 0.3562,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.0062,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.488,
"after": 0.4778,
"delta": -0.0102,
"percent_delta": -0.0209,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.227,
"after": 0.2335,
"delta": 0.0065,
"percent_delta": 0.0286,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2,
"after": 4.0414,
"delta": -0.1586,
"percent_delta": -0.0378,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 80
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1509,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.0414,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2404,
"predicted_BB": 0.283,
"predicted_H": 0.9716,
"predicted_HBP": 0.009,
"predicted_HR": 0.0976,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2901,
"predicted_R": 0.5263,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3146,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3504,
"predicted_SO": 0.4699
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1509,
"after": 0.1509,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0414,
"after": 4.0414,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2335,
"after": 0.2404,
"delta": 0.0069,
"percent_delta": 0.0296,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2784,
"after": 0.283,
"delta": 0.0046,
"percent_delta": 0.0165,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
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"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.15,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.15,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.2,
"percent_delta": -0.2857,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.227,
"after": 0.2404,
"delta": 0.0134,
"percent_delta": 0.059,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.275,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.725,
"percent_delta": 2.6364,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.95,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.05,
"percent_delta": 1.1053,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.91,
"percent_delta": 10.1111,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.291,
"after": 0.2901,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.0031,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.538,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.462,
"percent_delta": 0.8587,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.69,
"percent_delta": 2.2258,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.354,
"after": 0.3504,
"delta": -0.0036,
"percent_delta": -0.0102,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.488,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.488,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 7,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.95,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.05,
"percent_delta": 1.1053,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.2,
"percent_delta": -0.2857,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.150 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.200 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.275 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.950 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.291 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.538 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.354 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.488 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.151 | 0.001 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.041 | -0.159 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.278 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.940 | -0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.093 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.293 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.497 | -0.041 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.297 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.356 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.478 | -0.010 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.151 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.283 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 0.972 | 0.031 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.098 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.290 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.526 | 0.029 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.315 | 0.017 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.350 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.470 | -0.008 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.023
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.151 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.041 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.283 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.028 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.098 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.040 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.474 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.315 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.470 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.3158 | 0.3810 | 0.3684 | 0.3158 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1053 | 0.1053 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.2000 | 0.2432 | 0.2286 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0571 | 0.0857 |
| season | 0.60 | 80 | - | 316.000 | 73.000 | 12.000 | 0.000 | 13.000 | 36.000 | 43.000 | 22.000 | 39.000 | 0.2310 | 0.2824 | 0.3924 | 0.2310 | 0.0411 | 0.1139 | 0.0696 | 0.1234 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1520 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8280 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2423 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2830 |
| predicted_H | 0.9270 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0090 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0980 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2952 |
| predicted_R | 0.4420 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2800 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3592 |
| predicted_SO | 0.4640 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1500 | 0.1520 | 0.1509 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.2000 | 3.8280 | 4.0414 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2270 | 0.2423 | 0.2335 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2750 | 0.2830 | 0.2784 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9500 | 0.9270 | 0.9402 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0090 | 0.0090 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 | 0.0980 | 0.0934 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2910 | 0.2952 | 0.2928 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5380 | 0.4420 | 0.4971 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3100 | 0.2800 | 0.2972 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3540 | 0.3592 | 0.3562 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.4880 | 0.4640 | 0.4778 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 296 |
| Season rows before report date | 296 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 80 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.231 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 605141 |
| playerID | 605141 |
| playerName | Mookie Betts |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 11.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.294 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.326 |
| sl_xba | 0.273 |
| sl_xslg | 0.426 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 12.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.154 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.190 | 0.000 | -0.190 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.051 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.078 | 0.000 | -0.078 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.930 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.517 | 4.000 | 0.483 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.343 | 0.250 | -0.343 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.231 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.302 | 0.000 | -0.302 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.017 | 0.000 | -0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.820 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.207 | 1.000 | -1.207 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.112 | 0.000 | -0.112 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.258 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.415 | 0.250 | -0.415 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.462 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.552 | 1.000 | -0.552 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.510 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.672 | 0.000 | -0.672 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.086 | 0.000 | -0.086 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.381 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.537 | 0.250 | -0.537 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.821 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.698 | 0.000 | 0.302 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.8210 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1790, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8200 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2090 -> 0.2177 (boost 0.0087, better) | predicted_AB: 3.9300 -> 3.8625 (deboost -0.0675, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2177 -> 0.2246 (boost 0.0069, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3638 -> 0.3512 (deboost -0.0126, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | predicted_RBI: 0.5119 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4881, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2209 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2209, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.023 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4640 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4640, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2246 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0254, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3512 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1012, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3512 (boost 0.1012, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2246 (deboost -0.0254, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669242",
"player_name": "Tommy Edman",
"position": "2B",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.154,
"predicted_3B": 0.051,
"predicted_AB": 3.93,
"predicted_AVG": 0.209,
"predicted_BB": 0.231,
"predicted_H": 0.82,
"predicted_HR": 0.09,
"predicted_OBP": 0.258,
"predicted_R": 0.462,
"predicted_RBI": 0.51,
"predicted_SLG": 0.381,
"predicted_SO": 0.821
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1363,
"predicted_3B": 0.0422,
"predicted_AB": 3.8625,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2177,
"predicted_BB": 0.2173,
"predicted_H": 0.8393,
"predicted_HBP": 0.059,
"predicted_HR": 0.0856,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2662,
"predicted_R": 0.4383,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4835,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3638,
"predicted_SO": 0.8467
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.154,
"after": 0.1363,
"delta": -0.0177,
"percent_delta": -0.1149,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.051,
"after": 0.0422,
"delta": -0.0088,
"percent_delta": -0.1725,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.93,
"after": 3.8625,
"delta": -0.0675,
"percent_delta": -0.0172,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.209,
"after": 0.2177,
"delta": 0.0087,
"percent_delta": 0.0416,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.231,
"after": 0.2173,
"delta": -0.0137,
"percent_delta": -0.0593,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.82,
"after": 0.8393,
"delta": 0.0193,
"percent_delta": 0.0235,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0856,
"delta": -0.0044,
"percent_delta": -0.0489,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.258,
"after": 0.2662,
"delta": 0.0082,
"percent_delta": 0.0318,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.462,
"after": 0.4383,
"delta": -0.0237,
"percent_delta": -0.0513,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.51,
"after": 0.4835,
"delta": -0.0265,
"percent_delta": -0.052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.381,
"after": 0.3638,
"delta": -0.0172,
"percent_delta": -0.0451,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2246,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2665,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3512,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2246,
"delta": -0.0254,
"percent_delta": -0.1018,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2665,
"delta": 0.0165,
"percent_delta": 0.066,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3512,
"delta": 0.1012,
"percent_delta": 0.4046,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3512,
"delta": 0.1012,
"percent_delta": 0.4046,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2246,
"delta": -0.0254,
"percent_delta": -0.1018,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.154,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.154,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.051,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.051,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.93,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.07,
"percent_delta": 0.0178,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.209,
"after": 0.2246,
"delta": 0.0156,
"percent_delta": 0.0746,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.231,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.231,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.82,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.82,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.09,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.258,
"after": 0.2665,
"delta": 0.0085,
"percent_delta": 0.0329,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.462,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.462,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.51,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.51,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.381,
"after": 0.3512,
"delta": -0.0298,
"percent_delta": -0.0782,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.821,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.179,
"percent_delta": 0.218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 12,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.821,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.179,
"percent_delta": 0.218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.82,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.82,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.154 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.051 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.930 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.231 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.820 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.258 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.462 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.510 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.381 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.821 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.136 | -0.018 |
| predicted_3B | 0.042 | -0.009 |
| predicted_AB | 3.862 | -0.068 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.218 | 0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.217 | -0.014 |
| predicted_H | 0.839 | 0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.059 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.086 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.266 | 0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.438 | -0.024 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.483 | -0.027 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.364 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 0.847 | 0.026 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.136 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.042 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.862 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.221 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.867 | 0.028 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.059 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.089 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.267 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.464 | 0.026 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.512 | 0.028 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.351 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.833 | -0.014 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.023
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.136 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.042 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.138 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.025 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.221 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.133 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.089 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.017 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.464 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.488 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.101 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.167 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 0.1905 | 0.1905 | 0.1905 | 0.1905 | 0.0000 | 0.0476 | 0.0000 | 0.2381 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 10.000 | 0.1316 | 0.1750 | 0.2105 | 0.1316 | 0.0263 | 0.1053 | 0.0526 | 0.2632 |
| season | 0.60 | 39 | - | 140.000 | 38.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 20.000 | 18.000 | 9.000 | 32.000 | 0.2714 | 0.3333 | 0.4071 | 0.2714 | 0.0214 | 0.1429 | 0.0643 | 0.2286 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1100 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0290 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7620 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2307 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1970 |
| predicted_H | 0.8680 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0590 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0790 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2784 |
| predicted_R | 0.4030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4440 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3383 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8850 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1540 | 0.1100 | 0.1363 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0510 | 0.0290 | 0.0422 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9300 | 3.7620 | 3.8625 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2090 | 0.2307 | 0.2177 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2310 | 0.1970 | 0.2173 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8200 | 0.8680 | 0.8393 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0590 | 0.0590 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 | 0.0790 | 0.0856 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2580 | 0.2784 | 0.2662 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4620 | 0.4030 | 0.4383 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5100 | 0.4440 | 0.4835 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3810 | 0.3383 | 0.3638 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8210 | 0.8850 | 0.8467 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 116 |
| Season rows before report date | 116 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 39 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.271 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669242 |
| playerID | 669242 |
| playerName | Tommy Edman |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.338 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.331 |
| sl_xba | 0.281 |
| sl_xslg | 0.394 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.423 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.250 | 0.500 | 0.250 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.470 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.250 | 1.000 | 1.750 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.423 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.250 | 0.500 | 0.250 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.170 | 4.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.397 | 1.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.250 | 0.500 | 1.000 | 0.750 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.1700 -> 4.0000 (boost 3.8300, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AVG: 0.4230 -> 0.2102 (deboost -0.2128, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_AB: 2.5000 -> 2.7094 (boost 0.2094, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.4230 -> 0.3895 (deboost -0.0335, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3895 -> 0.2102 (deboost -0.1793, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | predicted_SO: 0.1336 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8664, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.2271 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2271, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.027 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.0845 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.0845, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2102 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1228, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 4.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2102 (deboost -0.1228, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "666163",
"player_name": "Ben Rortvedt",
"position": "C",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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"predicted_H": 0.47,
"predicted_HR": 0.06,
"predicted_OBP": 0.423,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.17,
"predicted_SLG": 0.397,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0025,
"predicted_AB": 2.7094,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3895,
"predicted_BB": 0.0424,
"predicted_H": 0.551,
"predicted_HBP": 0.027,
"predicted_HR": 0.0698,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3992,
"predicted_R": 0.0798,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2145,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3957,
"predicted_SO": 0.1359
},
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
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}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
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{
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"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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{
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{
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"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 4.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 4.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 4.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2102,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2225,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 4.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3034,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2102,
"delta": -0.1228,
"percent_delta": -0.3689,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2225,
"delta": -0.1105,
"percent_delta": -0.3317,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3034,
"delta": -0.0296,
"percent_delta": -0.0889,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2102,
"delta": -0.1228,
"percent_delta": -0.3689,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.5,
"percent_delta": 0.6,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.423,
"after": 0.2102,
"delta": -0.2128,
"percent_delta": -0.5031,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.47,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.53,
"percent_delta": 3.2553,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.06,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.94,
"percent_delta": 15.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.423,
"after": 0.2225,
"delta": -0.2005,
"percent_delta": -0.474,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 3.83,
"percent_delta": 22.5294,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.397,
"after": 0.3034,
"delta": -0.0936,
"percent_delta": -0.2358,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 3.83,
"percent_delta": 22.5294,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.423,
"after": 0.2102,
"delta": -0.2128,
"percent_delta": -0.5031,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.423 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.470 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.423 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.397 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.029 | 0.029 |
| predicted_3B | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 2.709 | 0.209 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.390 | -0.033 |
| predicted_BB | 0.042 | 0.042 |
| predicted_H | 0.551 | 0.081 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.027 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | 0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.399 | -0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.080 | 0.080 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.214 | 0.044 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.396 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.136 | 0.136 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.709 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.210 | -0.179 |
| predicted_BB | 0.043 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.569 | 0.018 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.073 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.223 | -0.177 |
| predicted_R | 0.085 | 0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.227 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.303 | -0.092 |
| predicted_SO | 0.134 | -0.002 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.027
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.029 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.291 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.123 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.043 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.431 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.073 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.111 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.085 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.227 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.030 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.866 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 4.000 | 4.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 2 | - | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 2 | - | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.60 | 2 | - | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1500 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5910 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2484 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2210 |
| predicted_H | 0.8920 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0270 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1110 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2991 |
| predicted_R | 0.4160 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3903 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7080 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0000 | 0.1500 | 0.0288 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0130 | 0.0025 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.5000 | 3.5910 | 2.7094 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.4230 | 0.2484 | 0.3895 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.2210 | 0.0424 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.4700 | 0.8920 | 0.5510 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0270 | 0.0270 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0600 | 0.1110 | 0.0698 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4230 | 0.2991 | 0.3992 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.0000 | 0.4160 | 0.0798 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1700 | 0.4020 | 0.2145 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3970 | 0.3903 | 0.3957 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.7080 | 0.1359 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 4 |
| Season rows before report date | 4 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 2 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 4 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.25 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260809_LAD@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 666163 |
| playerID | 666163 |
| playerName | Ben Rortvedt |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-09 |
| sl_k_percent | 0.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 0.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.222 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.366 |
| sl_xba | 0.396 |
| sl_xslg | 0.439 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 50.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 0.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 0.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | -1.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 35.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.123 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.118 | 0.000 | -0.118 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.680 | 0.000 | 0.320 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.185 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.251 | - | -0.251 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.464 | 0.000 | 0.536 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.130 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.673 | 0.000 | -0.673 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.039 | 0.000 | -0.039 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.244 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.370 | 1.000 | -0.120 | -0.750 |
| predicted_R | 0.328 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.451 | 0.000 | 0.549 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.090 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.373 | 0.000 | -0.373 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.298 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.339 | - | -0.339 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.492 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.523 | 0.000 | -0.523 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.3280 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6720, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.4920 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4920, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | predicted_H: 0.1300 -> 0.2708 (boost 0.1408, better) | predicted_AB: 2.5000 -> 2.3783 (deboost -0.1217, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3103 -> 0.1971 (deboost -0.1132, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_AB: 2.3783 -> 3.0000 (boost 0.6217, better) | predicted_H: 0.2798 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2798, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.112 HR/AB=0.006 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 0.2902 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2902, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1177 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.2153, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1177 (deboost -0.2153, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669743",
"player_name": "Alex Call",
"position": "LF",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.123,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.5,
"predicted_AVG": 0.185,
"predicted_BB": 0.328,
"predicted_H": 0.13,
"predicted_HR": 0.01,
"predicted_OBP": 0.244,
"predicted_R": 0.328,
"predicted_RBI": 0.09,
"predicted_SLG": 0.298,
"predicted_SO": 0.492
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.141,
"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 2.3783,
"predicted_AVG": 0.199,
"predicted_BB": 0.2646,
"predicted_H": 0.2708,
"predicted_HBP": 0.021,
"predicted_HR": 0.0148,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2567,
"predicted_R": 0.2741,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1303,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3103,
"predicted_SO": 0.4828
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.123,
"after": 0.141,
"delta": 0.018,
"percent_delta": 0.1463,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0008,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 2.3783,
"delta": -0.1217,
"percent_delta": -0.0487,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.185,
"after": 0.199,
"delta": 0.014,
"percent_delta": 0.0757,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.2646,
"delta": -0.0634,
"percent_delta": -0.1933,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.2708,
"delta": 0.1408,
"percent_delta": 1.0831,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.0148,
"delta": 0.0048,
"percent_delta": 0.48,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2567,
"delta": 0.0127,
"percent_delta": 0.052,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.2741,
"delta": -0.0539,
"percent_delta": -0.1643,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.1303,
"delta": 0.0403,
"percent_delta": 0.4478,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.298,
"after": 0.3103,
"delta": 0.0123,
"percent_delta": 0.0413,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.492,
"after": 0.4828,
"delta": -0.0092,
"percent_delta": -0.0187,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.2708,
"delta": 0.1408,
"percent_delta": 1.0831,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 2.3783,
"delta": -0.1217,
"percent_delta": -0.0487,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 54
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.141,
"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 2.3783,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1177,
"predicted_BB": 0.269,
"predicted_H": 0.2798,
"predicted_HBP": 0.021,
"predicted_HR": 0.0155,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2073,
"predicted_R": 0.2902,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1379,
"predicted_SLG": 0.1971,
"predicted_SO": 0.4748
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.141,
"after": 0.141,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0008,
"after": 0.0008,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.3783,
"after": 2.3783,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.199,
"after": 0.1177,
"delta": -0.0813,
"percent_delta": -0.4085,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2646,
"after": 0.269,
"delta": 0.0044,
"percent_delta": 0.0166,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.2708,
"after": 0.2798,
"delta": 0.009,
"percent_delta": 0.0332,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.021,
"after": 0.021,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0148,
"after": 0.0155,
"delta": 0.0007,
"percent_delta": 0.0473,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2567,
"after": 0.2073,
"delta": -0.0494,
"percent_delta": -0.1924,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.2741,
"after": 0.2902,
"delta": 0.0161,
"percent_delta": 0.0587,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.1303,
"after": 0.1379,
"delta": 0.0076,
"percent_delta": 0.0583,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3103,
"after": 0.1971,
"delta": -0.1132,
"percent_delta": -0.3648,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.4828,
"after": 0.4748,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -0.0166,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -0.1132,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.112 HR/AB=0.006",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.141,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.141,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0008,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 0.6217,
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"delta": -0.269,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2798,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": -0.021,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0155,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.1379,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1379,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.4748,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5252,
"percent_delta": 1.1061,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.6217,
"percent_delta": 0.2614,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.2798,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2798,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.2902,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2902,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.2902,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2902,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.2153,
"percent_delta": 1.8292,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2073,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.1257,
"percent_delta": 0.6064,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.1971,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.1359,
"percent_delta": 0.6895,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1177,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.2153,
"percent_delta": 1.8292,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1177,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2073,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.1971,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1177,
"delta": -0.2153,
"percent_delta": -0.6466,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2073,
"delta": -0.1257,
"percent_delta": -0.3774,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1971,
"delta": -0.1359,
"percent_delta": -0.408,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1177,
"delta": -0.2153,
"percent_delta": -0.6466,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.123,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.123,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.5,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.1177,
"delta": -0.0673,
"percent_delta": -0.3638,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.672,
"percent_delta": 2.0488,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.13,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2073,
"delta": -0.0367,
"percent_delta": -0.1504,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.672,
"percent_delta": 2.0488,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.09,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.298,
"after": 0.1971,
"delta": -0.1009,
"percent_delta": -0.3386,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.492,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.492,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.328,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.672,
"percent_delta": 2.0488,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.492,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.492,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.123 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.185 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.298 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.492 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.141 | 0.018 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 2.378 | -0.122 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.199 | 0.014 |
| predicted_BB | 0.265 | -0.063 |
| predicted_H | 0.271 | 0.141 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.021 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.015 | 0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.257 | 0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.274 | -0.054 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.130 | 0.040 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.310 | 0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 0.483 | -0.009 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.141 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.378 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.118 | -0.081 |
| predicted_BB | 0.269 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.280 | 0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.015 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.207 | -0.049 |
| predicted_R | 0.290 | 0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.138 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.197 | -0.113 |
| predicted_SO | 0.475 | -0.008 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.112 HR/AB=0.006
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.141 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.622 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.215 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.269 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.720 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.126 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.290 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.138 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.136 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.525 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 5.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.4000 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 15.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.1333 | 0.1333 | 0.2000 | 0.1333 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2667 |
| season | 0.60 | 54 | - | 122.000 | 30.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 16.000 | 16.000 | 16.000 | 24.000 | 0.2459 | 0.3380 | 0.3197 | 0.2459 | 0.0082 | 0.1311 | 0.1311 | 0.1967 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1680 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0020 |
| predicted_AB | 2.1950 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2201 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1690 |
| predicted_H | 0.4830 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0210 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0220 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2758 |
| predicted_R | 0.1930 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1910 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3288 |
| predicted_SO | 0.4690 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1230 | 0.1680 | 0.1410 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0020 | 0.0008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.5000 | 2.1950 | 2.3783 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1850 | 0.2201 | 0.1990 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3280 | 0.1690 | 0.2646 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.1300 | 0.4830 | 0.2708 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0210 | 0.0210 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0100 | 0.0220 | 0.0148 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2440 | 0.2758 | 0.2567 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3280 | 0.1930 | 0.2741 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.0900 | 0.1910 | 0.1303 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2980 | 0.3288 | 0.3103 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.4920 | 0.4690 | 0.4828 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 153 |
| Season rows before report date | 153 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 54 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.246 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 1 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260805_LAD@CHC |
| game_type | short |
| mlbID | 669743 |
| playerID | 669743 |
| playerName | Alex Call |
| pos | LF |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.312 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.279 |
| sl_xba | 0.208 |
| sl_xslg | 0.267 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 24.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 19.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 84.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 15.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 2.000 | 2.000 | -2.000 | -2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_ER | 4.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 11.000 | 11.000 | 11.000 | Pitching_H | 6.000 | 6.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 |
| predicted_IP | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 3.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 5.000 | 5.000 | -3.000 | -3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 4.3333 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.3333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | starter_usage_guardrail | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 4.3333 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.3333, worse) | Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "605483",
"player_name": "Blake Snell",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 4.0,
"predicted_H": 11.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.3333,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
"description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 4.0,
"predicted_H": 11.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 11.0,
"after": 11.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.3333,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.3333,
"percent_delta": -0.3077,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.3333,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.3333,
"percent_delta": -0.3077,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 4.0,
"predicted_H": 11.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 3.0,
"predicted_R": 4.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 11.0,
"after": 11.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 11.0,
"after": 11.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.3333,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.3333,
"percent_delta": -0.3077,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.3333,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.3333,
"percent_delta": -0.3077,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 4.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 11.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 4.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 11.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 3.000 | -1.333 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 1 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 12.0000 | 2.6667 | 1.3333 | 2.0000 | 0.6667 | 1.6667 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 1 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 12.0000 | 2.6667 | 1.3333 | 2.0000 | 0.6667 | 1.6667 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 1 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 12.0000 | 2.6667 | 1.3333 | 2.0000 | 0.6667 | 1.6667 | 0.0000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.6910 |
| predicted_ER | 2.6220 |
| predicted_ERA | 5.7393 |
| predicted_H | 4.7030 |
| predicted_HR | 0.5090 |
| predicted_IP | 4.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 4.4260 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.5553 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 1.6910 | 0.5038 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 4.0000 | 2.6220 | 3.5895 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 5.7393 | 5.7393 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 11.0000 | 4.7030 | 9.1239 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.5090 | 0.1516 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 4.1000 | 4.0000 | 4.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 4.4260 | 2.7228 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.5553 | 1.5553 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 1 |
| Season rows before report date | 1 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 1 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 3.0 |
| H | 11 |
| R | 4 |
| ER | 4 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 20 |
| Pitches | 77 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 2 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 18 |
| Pitching_ER | 4 |
| Pitching_ERA | 12.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 4 |
| Pitching_H | 6 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 3.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 77 |
| Pitching_R | 5 |
| Pitching_SO | 5 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 50 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | L |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260509_ATL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 605483 |
| playerID | 605483 |
| playerName | Blake Snell |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-05-09 |
| game_pk | 823955.0 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.374 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.306 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 45.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 0.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 18.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 40.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.9 |
| sv_pitch_count | 77.0 |
| sv_outs_recorded_est | 9.0 |
| sv_release_speed | 89.51558441558441 |
| sv_release_spin_rate | 2369.6363636363635 |
| sv_effective_speed | 90.3038961038961 |
| sv_launch_speed | 77.61363636363636 |
| sv_launch_angle | 5.590909090909091 |
| sv_woba_value | 7.7 |
| sv_woba_denom | 18.0 |
| sv_delta_run_exp | 1.568 |
| sv_delta_home_win_exp | -0.308 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 68.319946667 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 91.187091818 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.519 | 0.000 | -0.519 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.250 | 0.000 | -0.250 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.404 | 0.000 | -0.404 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.612 | 1.000 | 0.388 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.058 | 1.000 | -1.058 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "681911",
"player_name": "Alex Vesia",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.200 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 3.8571 | 1.0714 | 0.4286 | 0.4286 | 0.6429 | 0.6429 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 5.0000 | 1.3333 | 0.5556 | 0.5556 | 0.7778 | 1.1111 | 0.2222 |
| season | 0.20 | 52 | 40.200 | 13.000 | 21.000 | 27.000 | 55.000 | 2.000 | 2.8770 | 1.1803 | 0.3197 | 0.5164 | 0.6639 | 1.3525 | 0.0492 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.5440 |
| predicted_ER | 0.4500 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.2232 |
| predicted_H | 0.6460 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1060 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9130 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2412 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.5440 | 0.2661 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.4500 | 0.2201 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.2232 | 4.2232 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.6460 | 0.3160 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1060 | 0.0519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.9130 | 0.4466 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2412 | 1.2412 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 52 |
| Season rows before report date | 52 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 52 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 14 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.88 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 2 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 8 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 7 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 681911 |
| playerID | 681911 |
| playerName | Alex Vesia |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 32.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 16.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.242 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.273 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 36.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 78.124967955 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.878487931 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.615 | 0.000 | -0.615 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.923 | 0.000 | 0.077 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 1.308 | 0.000 | -0.308 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.792 | 1.000 | 0.208 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.231 | 1.000 | -0.231 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "621242",
"player_name": "Edwin Díaz",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 9.0000 | 2.2500 | 1.0000 | 1.5000 | 0.7500 | 1.5000 | 0.5000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.000 | 9.000 | 14.000 | 6.000 | 14.000 | 3.000 | 9.0000 | 2.2222 | 1.0000 | 1.5556 | 0.6667 | 1.5556 | 0.3333 |
| season | 0.20 | 12 | 11.000 | 9.000 | 14.000 | 7.000 | 16.000 | 3.000 | 7.3636 | 1.9091 | 0.8182 | 1.2727 | 0.6364 | 1.4546 | 0.2727 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4420 |
| predicted_ER | 0.6110 |
| predicted_ERA | 5.7657 |
| predicted_H | 1.0740 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2140 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0760 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.5893 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4420 | 0.1576 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.6110 | 0.8613 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 5.7657 | 5.7657 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 1.0740 | 1.0264 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.2140 | 0.0763 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.0760 | 1.0271 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.5893 | 1.5893 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 13 |
| Season rows before report date | 13 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 12 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 20 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 9.82 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 12 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 8 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | S |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 621242 |
| playerID | 621242 |
| playerName | Edwin Díaz |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 14.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.475 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.35 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 46.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 53.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 83.0109375 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 95.157951613 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.286 | 1.000 | -0.286 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.347 | 2.000 | -0.347 | -2.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.714 | 2.000 | -0.714 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.837 | 1.000 | 0.163 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.122 | 1.000 | -1.122 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "676263",
"player_name": "Jack Dreyer",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": null,
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"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 4.5000 | 1.2500 | 0.5000 | 0.7500 | 0.5000 | 1.2500 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 4.5000 | 1.3750 | 0.5000 | 0.8750 | 0.5000 | 1.1250 | 0.1250 |
| season | 0.20 | 49 | 48.000 | 17.000 | 35.000 | 14.000 | 55.000 | 7.000 | 3.1875 | 1.0208 | 0.3542 | 0.7292 | 0.2917 | 1.1458 | 0.1458 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3500 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3960 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.3229 |
| predicted_H | 0.7030 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1420 |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9140 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2770 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3500 | 0.1769 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3960 | 0.2001 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.3229 | 4.3229 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.7030 | 0.3552 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1420 | 0.0718 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.9140 | 0.4618 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2770 | 1.2770 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 49 |
| Season rows before report date | 49 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 49 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 14 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 6 |
| Pitching_ER | 2 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.19 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 17 |
| Pitching_R | 2 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 12 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | W, BS |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 676263 |
| playerID | 676263 |
| playerName | Jack Dreyer |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.259 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.281 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.257239821 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.523149464 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.216 | 1.000 | -0.216 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.235 | 0.000 | -0.235 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.647 | 0.000 | 0.353 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.857 | 1.000 | 1.143 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.176 | 0.000 | -1.176 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "656945",
"player_name": "Tanner Scott",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 2.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 2.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.7500 | 1.2500 | 1.0000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 1.0000 | 1.5556 | 0.1111 | 0.8889 | 0.6667 | 1.1111 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 51 | 47.200 | 12.000 | 33.000 | 11.000 | 60.000 | 4.000 | 2.2657 | 0.9231 | 0.2517 | 0.6923 | 0.2308 | 1.2587 | 0.0839 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.6100 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2070 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.0707 |
| predicted_H | 0.7670 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0560 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9420 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.5272 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.6100 | 0.3078 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2070 | 0.1045 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.0707 | 2.0707 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.7670 | 0.8824 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0560 | 0.0283 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.9420 | 0.4753 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.5272 | 1.5272 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 51 |
| Season rows before report date | 51 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 51 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 2.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 7 |
| Pitches | 8 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.27 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 15 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 10 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 656945 |
| playerID | 656945 |
| playerName | Tanner Scott |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.243 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.274 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 36.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 55.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 79.430519815 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.519556822 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.154 | 0.000 | -0.154 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.385 | 0.000 | -0.385 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.769 | 0.000 | -0.769 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.677 | 1.000 | 0.323 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.846 | 2.000 | 0.154 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3333, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3333, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "623465",
"player_name": "Evan Phillips",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.6667,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3333,
"percent_delta": 0.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3333,
"percent_delta": 0.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3333,
"percent_delta": 0.4999,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3333,
"percent_delta": 0.4999,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 3.100 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.6000 | 0.0000 | 0.6000 | 0.0000 | 0.6000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 7.200 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 3.000 | 3.5217 | 1.0435 | 0.3913 | 0.7826 | 0.2609 | 0.9130 | 0.3913 |
| season | 0.20 | 13 | 10.200 | 5.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 4.000 | 4.2188 | 1.1250 | 0.4688 | 0.9375 | 0.1875 | 1.0312 | 0.3750 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.1940 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2790 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.7659 |
| predicted_H | 0.6000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1120 |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6070 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1915 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.1940 | 0.0687 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2790 | 0.0987 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.7659 | 3.7659 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.6000 | 0.2123 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1120 | 0.0396 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.6070 | 0.8609 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1915 | 1.1915 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 13 |
| Season rows before report date | 13 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 13 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 13 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 4.22 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 9 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 7 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260809_LAD@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 623465 |
| playerID | 623465 |
| playerName | Evan Phillips |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-09 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 4.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.339 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.319 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 16.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 84.61189625 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.193997419 |
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | MIL 4 - 3 SD | MIL | 0.513 | scoring_simulation.final_score | True |
| Simulation draw | MIL 4 - 3 SD | MIL | - | organic_score_same_winner | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.5073; empirical=0.5178; weight=0.5000; final=0.5126 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=-5; abs=5; home delta=-0.0312; away delta=0.0312 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=1.6500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=-1.4381; recent edge=0.1560; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 9.6000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.5126 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_score_same_winner |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 7 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 4.632 | 3.430 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 5 | 3 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 4 | 3 | 0.5126 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail) |
| 4 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 3 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 5 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 3 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 6 | capped_target | 4 | 3 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 7 | simulation_result | 4 | 3 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.4871748933333334,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.4301587301587302,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.5101587301587301,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.05701616317460323,
"confidence": 0.6662734,
"factors": {
"environmental": 0.9996,
"pitcher_form": 1.1,
"team_form": 1.0,
"situational": 1.03,
"combined": 1.1325468
},
"prediction": "normal_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 7,
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 9.6,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 9.6,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 7,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
}{
"method": "historical_slate_bin_shrinkage",
"sample_size": 197,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 197,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 262,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 303,
"global_sample_size": 473,
"bucket_scope": "near_0.05",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5178,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5163,
"sample_weight": 0.6,
"prior_strength": 18.0,
"reliability": 0.9163,
"confidence_cap": 0.78,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5085,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5119,
"predicted_side": "away"
}{
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.507321,
"sample_size": 197,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5178,
"empirical_weight": 0.5,
"blended_confidence": 0.51256,
"published_confidence": 0.51256,
"published_after_governors": true
}{
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 4,
"sample_weight": 0.05,
"home_net_margin": -5.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
"home_average_margin": -1.25,
"home_run_delta": -0.0312,
"away_run_delta": 0.0312,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -6.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 2.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -2.0
}
]
}{
"applied": true,
"home": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 119,
"wins": 62,
"losses": 57,
"win_pct": 0.5210084033613446,
"runs_scored": 504,
"runs_allowed": 514,
"run_differential": -10,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.08403361344537816,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 118,
"wins": 74,
"losses": 44,
"win_pct": 0.6271186440677966,
"runs_scored": 585,
"runs_allowed": 444,
"run_differential": 141,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.194915254237288,
"available": true
},
"run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.2789,
"win_pct_edge": -0.1061,
"quality_edge": -0.8802,
"season_quality_edge": -1.4381,
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
"recent_window": 10,
"season_quality_edge": -1.4381,
"recent_quality_edge": 0.156,
"season_weight": 0.65,
"recent_weight": 0.35,
"recent_reliability": 1.0,
"alignment": "conflict",
"blended_quality_edge": -0.8802
},
"margin_adjustment": -0.3697,
"reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
"margin_adjustment_policy": {
"adjustment": -0.3697,
"cap": 1.4,
"scale": 0.42,
"quality_edge": -0.8802,
"season_quality_edge": -1.4381,
"recent_alignment": "conflict",
"large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
"method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 5.467,
"home_runs": 2.666,
"home_win_probability": 0.2619
}
}{
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.0326287273403024
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.03149122104592194
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.03086740048977113
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.02979129776648447
},
{
"home_runs": 2,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.028550384966603615
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.06946743412080568,
"1": 0.11586330501880768,
"2": 0.15996402495789847,
"3": 0.18281443702822006,
"4": 0.17294595600398965,
"5": 0.1354322485615313,
"6": 0.087790095704756,
"7": 0.04710648634921644,
"8": 0.020923178325489598,
"9": 0.007692833929285211
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.06609799289276999,
"1": 0.11055904430742812,
"2": 0.15395533167950606,
"3": 0.1784800362088782,
"4": 0.17225784548438486,
"5": 0.13840852181892901,
"6": 0.09258510083192606,
"7": 0.051560109522943605,
"8": 0.02390457421069032,
"9": 0.009226620277900164,
"10": 0.002964822764643663
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
"variance_multiplier": 1.65,
"variance_floor": 2.75,
"roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
}{
"applied": true,
"confidence_cap": 0.53,
"winner_flipped": false,
"reasons": [
"latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side",
"recent head-to-head is split and volatile",
"a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result",
"latest-series reversal condition was suppressed"
],
"signals": {
"predicted_team": "MIL",
"opponent_team": "SD",
"h2h_net_margin": 3,
"opponent_breakout": false,
"opponent_blowout_win": false,
"split_recent_h2h": true,
"recent_h2h": [
{
"date": "2026-08-10",
"predicted_team_runs": 2,
"opponent_runs": 3,
"margin_for_predicted_team": -1,
"winner": "SD"
},
{
"date": "2026-05-14",
"predicted_team_runs": 7,
"opponent_runs": 1,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 6,
"winner": "MIL"
},
{
"date": "2026-05-13",
"predicted_team_runs": 1,
"opponent_runs": 3,
"margin_for_predicted_team": -2,
"winner": "SD"
}
],
"prediction_memory": {
"available": true,
"reason": "verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available",
"verification_policy": "pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final",
"verified_outcome_count": 1,
"consecutive_same_pick_count": 1,
"same_pick_actual_loss_count": 1,
"same_pick_blowout_loss_count": 0,
"prior_predictions": [
{
"date": "20260810",
"away": "MIL",
"home": "SD",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "MIL",
"actual_winner": "SD",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.6,
"artifact": "20260810_MIL@SD.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
}
]
},
"guardrail_predicted_team": "MIL",
"guardrail_opponent_team": "SD",
"output_pre_simulation_winner": "MIL",
"output_opponent_team": "SD",
"simulation_score_winner": "MIL",
"final_score_winner": "MIL",
"pre_simulation_winner": "MIL",
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false
},
"hard_flip_suppressed": true,
"final_prediction_sync": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 SD",
"winner": "MIL"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 SD",
"winner": "MIL"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.2123,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.156,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3,
"winner": "MIL",
"model_winner": "MIL",
"simulation_winner": "MIL",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.8802,
"winner": "MIL",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"policy": "recency_uncertainty_shrinkage_v2",
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"home": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 119,
"wins": 62,
"losses": 57,
"win_pct": 0.5210084033613446,
"runs_scored": 504,
"runs_allowed": 514,
"run_differential": -10,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.08403361344537816,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 118,
"wins": 74,
"losses": 44,
"win_pct": 0.6271186440677966,
"runs_scored": 585,
"runs_allowed": 444,
"run_differential": 141,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.194915254237288,
"available": true
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"raw_margin": -0.1,
"final_margin": -0.1,
"margin_cap": 2.0,
"season_quality_edge": 0.8802,
"reason": "raw target margin within supported range"
}{
"applied": false,
"raw_confidence": 0.51256,
"final_confidence": 0.51256,
"confidence_cap": 0.66,
"score_gap": 0.1,
"calibration_sample_size": 197,
"calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5178,
"calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5163,
"calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
"season_quality_edge": 0.8802,
"reasons": [
"unvalidated probabilities are capped for production display",
"projected score gap is close",
"local calibration sample has at least 30 games",
"local calibration sample has at least 60 games",
"win-probability calibration cap enforced"
]
}{
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 SD",
"winner": "MIL"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 SD",
"winner": "MIL"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.2123,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.156,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3,
"winner": "MIL",
"model_winner": "MIL",
"simulation_winner": "MIL",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.8802,
"winner": "MIL",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}{
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3,
"confidence": 0.51256,
"home_win_probability": 0.48744,
"away_win_probability": 0.51256,
"predicted_score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 SD",
"embedded_savant_score_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded temporal Savant features",
"feature_contract": {
"training_grain": "one player-game row after collapsing granular at-bat rows",
"temporal_rule": "all sl_/ab_/sv_ model features are shifted before the predicted game",
"hitter_signals": [
"xwoba",
"xba",
"xslg",
"barrel_batted_rate",
"hard_hit_percent",
"bat_speed",
"launch_quality",
"walk_rate",
"strikeout_rate"
],
"pitcher_signals": [
"xwoba_allowed",
"barrel_allowed",
"hard_hit_allowed",
"whiff_rate",
"command_score",
"movement_score",
"faced_est_woba",
"faced_strikeout_rate"
]
},
"away": {
"team": "MIL",
"original_runs": 4,
"run_delta": 0.3476,
"adjusted_runs": 4,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 33.0,
"quality": 0.3075346058784653,
"contact": 0.13761039168213188,
"power": 0.23518562417919997,
"discipline": 0.1850391015170565,
"xwoba": 0.32754545454545453,
"recent_xwoba": 0.32754545454545453,
"barrel": 9.351515151515148,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.07551983964831811,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.2854810459681,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.24289111681533573,
"available_players": 8,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "641343",
"player_name": "Jake Bauers",
"position": "1B",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": 1.0118685471687283,
"contact": 1.0413967517084102,
"power": 1.3934513708270824,
"discipline": 0.3953059241483156,
"xwoba": 0.37,
"recent_xwoba": 0.37,
"barrel": 14.199999999999998,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.4415988451130901,
"ab_bat_speed": 75.02918949579832,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.28164231601731604,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "694192",
"player_name": "Jackson Chourio",
"position": "LF",
"weight": 5.0,
"quality": 0.7943447290078312,
"contact": 0.7212388229032873,
"power": 1.291092708519178,
"discipline": -0.06929168657429544,
"xwoba": 0.343,
"recent_xwoba": 0.343,
"barrel": 14.199999999999998,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.732711313240703,
"ab_bat_speed": 73.811142281106,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.25245421245421246,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "666152",
"player_name": "David Hamilton",
"position": "3B",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.882971564995635,
"contact": -1.0034352492063496,
"power": -1.034972916571177,
"discipline": 0.12677724449463554,
"xwoba": 0.267,
"recent_xwoba": 0.267,
"barrel": 3.8,
"ab_hard_contact": -1.543648807614004,
"ab_bat_speed": 63.20046370967742,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.24924242424242424,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "669003",
"player_name": "Garrett Mitchell",
"position": "CF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.7087099536067981,
"contact": 0.6835910358895072,
"power": 1.1064157689008707,
"discipline": -0.34333350586611455,
"xwoba": 0.351,
"recent_xwoba": 0.351,
"barrel": 13.2,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.7930772827793158,
"ab_bat_speed": 75.60104640921409,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.36121031746031745,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "678225",
"player_name": "Jihwan Bae",
"position": "2B",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.0029719828247259045,
"contact": -1.7999999999999998,
"power": -2.0,
"discipline": 0.18749999999999994,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"recent_xwoba": 0.312,
"barrel": 7.3,
"ab_hard_contact": -2.0,
"ab_bat_speed": 70.28662222222222,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.22291666666666665,
"available": 0.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "621111",
"player_name": "Walker Buehler",
"quality": -0.29659553009216727,
"contact": -0.2621395960669316,
"command": -0.5074841269841269,
"movement": -0.28688892921584813,
"xwoba": 0.323,
"whiff": 20.8,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2673184860119048,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.86666666666667,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.23333333333333334,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006702420300892518
}
},
"home": {
"team": "SD",
"original_runs": 3,
"run_delta": -0.1471,
"adjusted_runs": 3,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 32.0,
"quality": 0.3229094161478287,
"contact": 0.40227864140002534,
"power": 0.3530775019611416,
"discipline": -0.028042879269273305,
"xwoba": 0.32546875,
"recent_xwoba": 0.32546875,
"barrel": 8.612499999999999,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.39680003922283735,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.11468059446969,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2212879944349047,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "665487",
"player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
"position": "RF",
"weight": 5.0,
"quality": 0.9791815619785449,
"contact": 1.2219669863203457,
"power": 1.048806337074179,
"discipline": 0.052186335403726566,
"xwoba": 0.36,
"recent_xwoba": 0.36,
"barrel": 11.5,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.9429838843407238,
"ab_bat_speed": 73.47236819727891,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.20133333333333334,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "701538",
"player_name": "Jackson Merrill",
"position": "CF",
"weight": 5.0,
"quality": 0.558070906815497,
"contact": 0.48941103815708076,
"power": 0.9009337696066784,
"discipline": -0.4121640047323277,
"xwoba": 0.329,
"recent_xwoba": 0.329,
"barrel": 11.6,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.8921992016573863,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.64441579861112,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.24846938775510205,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "664034",
"player_name": "Ty France",
"position": "1B",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": 0.45624130890397374,
"contact": 0.5753003371654168,
"power": 0.8582213384426715,
"discipline": -0.5890145364943282,
"xwoba": 0.331,
"recent_xwoba": 0.331,
"barrel": 10.8,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.305760102186762,
"ab_bat_speed": 70.4946689909297,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2676056338028169,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "592518",
"player_name": "Manny Machado",
"position": "3B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.497120819588544,
"contact": 0.3765826097402595,
"power": 0.6861937125359822,
"discipline": 0.2637666624840536,
"xwoba": 0.331,
"recent_xwoba": 0.331,
"barrel": 10.7,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.5516837745291767,
"ab_bat_speed": 73.0730990836197,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.22053872053872053,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "630105",
"player_name": "Jake Cronenworth",
"position": "2B",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.38652614853424533,
"contact": -0.5087129638103728,
"power": -0.7448194825927874,
"discipline": 0.21743750253724675,
"xwoba": 0.291,
"recent_xwoba": 0.291,
"barrel": 4.1,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.36229441376050736,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.20762552640103,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2506535947712418,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "690986",
"player_name": "Kyle Harrison",
"quality": 0.6125033996105341,
"contact": 0.7325122822586236,
"command": 0.6302301587301588,
"movement": 0.32314229429826075,
"xwoba": 0.27,
"whiff": 29.4,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2673184860119048,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.86666666666667,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.23333333333333334,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006702420300892518
}
}
},
"fundamental_edge_target_review": {
"applied": false,
"method": "post_score_adjustment_fundamental_edge_review_v1",
"previous_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3,
"winner_side": "away"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3,
"winner_side": "away"
},
"signals": {
"season_quality_edge_home_minus_away": -0.8802,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.156,
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.2123,
"composite_home_edge": -1.0922,
"existing_home_win_probability": 0.4881,
"refreshed_home_win_probability": 0.3,
"winner_support_before_review": 1.0922
},
"reasons": [
"target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile"
]
},
"confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3,
"predicted_score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 SD",
"confidence": 0.51256,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 SD",
"winner": "MIL"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 SD",
"winner": "MIL"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.2123,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.156,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3,
"winner": "MIL",
"model_winner": "MIL",
"simulation_winner": "MIL",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.8802,
"winner": "MIL",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
},
"decision_profile": {
"method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
"winner": "MIL",
"display_confidence": 0.5126,
"internal_signal_score": 0.6476,
"internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
"model_pick_probability": 0.5126,
"confidence_compression_detected": true,
"moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
"betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
"market_context": null,
"margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
"totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
"winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
"signals": {
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.8802,
"winner_recent_form_edge": -0.156,
"winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.2123,
"winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
"blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.4,
"high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
"low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
"total_runs_spread": {
"min": 4,
"median": 6,
"max": 10,
"range": 6
}
},
"interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away MIL | True | 1.0321 | 1.0321 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home SD | True | 1.0316 | 1.0316 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS | Brice Turang | 5 | 1.0522 | 0.6961 | neutral | 0.3460 | 0.2580 | 0.4390 | 7.90 | 42.80 | 90.60 | 8.70 | 22.40 | 24.60 | 12.80 | -0.3714 |
| CF | Garrett Mitchell | 88 | 1.0779 | 1.0388 | neutral | 0.3510 | 0.2580 | 0.4450 | 13.20 | 51.10 | 92.90 | 2.10 | 36.80 | 31.40 | 12.20 | 0.3714 |
| LF | Jackson Chourio | 89 | 1.0723 | 0.9638 | neutral | 0.3430 | 0.2560 | 0.4830 | 14.20 | 47.60 | 92.20 | 11.80 | 23.60 | 24.10 | 8.40 | -0.2571 |
| RF | Luis Lara | 300 | 1.0051 | 0.0674 | neutral | 0.3170 | 0.2570 | 0.3330 | 3.90 | 39.20 | 89 | 7.40 | 21.50 | 19.50 | 14.30 | 0.3143 |
| 1B | Jake Bauers | 77 | 1.0987 | 1.3166 | neutral | 0.3700 | 0.2600 | 0.4830 | 14.20 | 53.60 | 92.80 | 10.90 | 27.90 | 25.90 | 13.90 | -0.3143 |
| 2B | Jihwan Bae | 360 | 1.0060 | 0.0798 | neutral | 0.3120 | 0.2450 | 0.3880 | 7.30 | 39.50 | 88.90 | 14 | 24.60 | 22 | 8.60 | -0.0857 |
| C | William Contreras | 134 | 1.0424 | 0.5648 | neutral | 0.3270 | 0.2610 | 0.4300 | 7.30 | 42.70 | 89.80 | 11.60 | 20.50 | 14.30 | 8.30 | 0.3714 |
| 3B | David Hamilton | 150 | 0.9346 | -0.8722 | neutral | 0.2670 | 0.2070 | 0.2960 | 3.80 | 28 | 87.10 | 12.80 | 23.10 | 23.10 | 9.60 | -0.7429 |
| DH | Christian Yelich | 396 | 0.9994 | -0.0077 | neutral | 0.3000 | 0.2210 | 0.3700 | 9.10 | 41.80 | 88.70 | 2.80 | 29.90 | 27.20 | 9.80 | -0.0571 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DH | Luis Rengifo | 295 | 1.0090 | 0.1205 | neutral | 0.3120 | 0.2610 | 0.3530 | 4 | 35.20 | 88 | 4.50 | 20 | 12.50 | 9.80 | 0.7714 |
| 1B | Ty France | 43 | 1.0453 | 0.6041 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3310 | 0.2540 | 0.4440 | 10.80 | 48.70 | 92.20 | 13 | 27.70 | 22.70 | 5.20 | -1 |
| 3B | Manny Machado | 265 | 1.0550 | 0.7332 | neutral | 0.3310 | 0.2430 | 0.4350 | 10.70 | 44.60 | 90.80 | 13.70 | 26.30 | 22.40 | 11.20 | 0.6000 |
| CF | Jackson Merrill | 71 | 1.0628 | 0.8379 | neutral | 0.3290 | 0.2570 | 0.4610 | 11.60 | 46.70 | 90.30 | 14.30 | 26.50 | 24 | 6.40 | 0.6571 |
| RF | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 102 | 1.0918 | 1.2240 | neutral | 0.3600 | 0.2860 | 0.4560 | 11.50 | 52.70 | 92.30 | 5.30 | 27.70 | 19.30 | 9.10 | 0.6571 |
| LF | Austin Hays | 512 | 1.0063 | 0.0846 | neutral | 0.2940 | 0.2890 | 0.3890 | 6.50 | 51.60 | 87.40 | -0.30 | 36.30 | 28.90 | 2.20 | 0.3143 |
| C | Luis Campusano | 199 | 1.0116 | 0.1551 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3360 | 0.2500 | 0.3940 | 8.20 | 44.70 | 88.30 | 13.80 | 25.30 | 22.40 | 12.70 | -1.3714 |
| 2B | Jake Cronenworth | 550 | 0.9821 | -0.2388 | neutral | 0.2910 | 0.2280 | 0.3230 | 4.10 | 31.60 | 87.50 | 10.60 | 21.70 | 20.90 | 9.50 | 0.4857 |
| SS | Xander Bogaerts | 164 | 1.0202 | 0.2694 | positive_batter_regression | 0.3180 | 0.2470 | 0.3690 | 5.50 | 40.10 | 88.40 | 5.50 | 22.90 | 18.20 | 11.80 | 0.8571 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0316,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0316,
"team_espn_average_rank": 244.56,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "650859",
"player_name": "Luis Rengifo",
"offense_factor": 1.009,
"quality_score": 0.1205,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "650859",
"espn_id": 37237,
"player_name": "Luis Rengifo",
"team": "SD",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 295,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 295,
"gp_value": 80.0,
"gp_rank": 232,
"ab_value": 261.0,
"ab_rank": 210,
"r_value": 33.0,
"r_rank": 206,
"h_value": 62.0,
"h_rank": 210,
"avg_value": 0.2375478,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 11.0,
"2b_rank": 212,
"3b_value": 0.0,
"3b_rank": 263,
"hr_value": 2.0,
"hr_rank": 381,
"rbi_value": 27.0,
"rbi_rank": 247,
"tb_value": 79.0,
"tb_rank": 2091,
"bb_value": 30.0,
"bb_rank": 158,
"so_value": 38.0,
"so_rank": 327,
"sb_value": 6.0,
"sb_rank": 133,
"obp_value": 0.3209459,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.3026819,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.6236278,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.36,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 229.0,
"k_percent": 12.5,
"bb_percent": 9.8,
"woba": 0.285,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"xba": 0.261,
"xslg": 0.353,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 35.2,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.0,
"launch_angle_avg": 4.5,
"whiff_percent": 20.0,
"swing_percent": 48.9
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.0146,
"regression_edge": 0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": 0.2857,
"xba_edge": 0.6857,
"xslg_edge": -0.2286,
"barrel_edge": -0.6222,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.3786,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.24,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.85,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "664034",
"player_name": "Ty France",
"offense_factor": 1.0453,
"quality_score": 0.6041,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "664034",
"espn_id": 35591,
"player_name": "Ty France",
"team": "SD",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 43,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 43,
"gp_value": 94.0,
"gp_rank": 166,
"ab_value": 296.0,
"ab_rank": 175,
"r_value": 41.0,
"r_rank": 157,
"h_value": 86.0,
"h_rank": 125,
"avg_value": 0.2905405,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 15.0,
"2b_rank": 140,
"3b_value": 2.0,
"3b_rank": 56,
"hr_value": 17.0,
"hr_rank": 59,
"rbi_value": 51.0,
"rbi_rank": 91,
"tb_value": 156.0,
"tb_rank": 554,
"bb_value": 17.0,
"bb_rank": 272,
"so_value": 74.0,
"so_rank": 151,
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{
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"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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{
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{
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{
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},
"metrics": {
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"components": {
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],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away MIL | True | 29 | 0.6043 | 1 | 0.9486 | 1.0731 | 0.9400 | 0.9421 | neutral | 0.2700 | 0.2750 | 31.10 | 5.90 | 29.40 | 6.30 | 36.20 | |
| Home SD | True | 325 | -0.2674 | 1 | 1.0227 | 0.9611 | 1.0120 | 1.0523 | neutral | 0.3230 | 0.3390 | 20.10 | 9.50 | 20.80 | 8.50 | 40.70 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away MIL | True | None | 79 | 90.14 | 2195 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0129 | |
| Home SD | True | None | 82 | 89.34 | 2213 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0319 |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 1.0227 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 0.9486 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | -0.8717 |
{
"applied": true,
"home_pitcher": {
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"pitcher_id": "621111",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"avg_best_speed": 79.5043,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.3074,
"whiff_percent": 20.8,
"swing_percent": 44.5
},
"league_medians": {
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"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
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},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": -0.4,
"regression_edge": 0.4571,
"xwoba_edge": -0.3429,
"barrel_edge": -0.3111,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.4286,
"whiff_edge": -0.6714,
"bb_edge": -0.15,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0319
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621111",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 82,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.34259352374748,
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"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
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"release_speed": 89.34259352374748,
"release_spin_rate": 2213.231206656701,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.3426,
"release_spin_rate": 2213.2312,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0319,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.2277,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.2674,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0227,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9611,
"walk_factor": 1.012,
"homer_factor": 1.0523,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.016,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "621111",
"espn_id": 39251,
"player_name": "Walker Buehler",
"team": "SD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 325,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 325,
"gp_value": 23.0,
"gp_rank": 258,
"gs_value": 23.0,
"gs_rank": 20,
"qs_value": 3.0,
"qs_rank": 124,
"era_value": 5.0676,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 6.0,
"w_rank": 76,
"l_value": 5.0,
"l_rank": 108,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 108.1,
"ip_rank": 80,
"h_value": 113.0,
"h_rank": 49,
"er_value": 61.0,
"er_rank": 23,
"hr_value": 14.0,
"hr_rank": 67,
"bb_value": 45.0,
"bb_rank": 26,
"k_value": 95.0,
"k_rank": 80,
"k_per_9_value": 7.8923078,
"k_per_9_rank": 27,
"whip_value": 1.4584,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.19,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "690986",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 318.0,
"k_percent": 31.1,
"bb_percent": 5.9,
"woba": 0.275,
"xwoba": 0.27,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
"avg_best_speed": 79.1254,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9136,
"whiff_percent": 29.4,
"swing_percent": 49.5
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.6259,
"command_and_miss": 0.9171,
"regression_edge": 0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": 1.1714,
"barrel_edge": 0.1778,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.2143,
"whiff_edge": 0.5571,
"bb_edge": 0.75,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0129
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "690986",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 79,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 79,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.1424504081612,
"release_spin_rate": 2194.6310095092713,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 79,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.1424504081612,
"release_spin_rate": 2194.6310095092713,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 90.1425,
"release_spin_rate": 2194.631,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.0129,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.0923,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.6043,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9486,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0731,
"walk_factor": 0.94,
"homer_factor": 0.9421,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "690986",
"espn_id": 4683375,
"player_name": "Kyle Harrison",
"team": "MIL",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 29,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 29,
"gp_value": 18.0,
"gp_rank": 369,
"gs_value": 18.0,
"gs_rank": 93,
"qs_value": 6.0,
"qs_rank": 80,
"era_value": 2.8421,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 9.0,
"w_rank": 23,
"l_value": 2.0,
"l_rank": 279,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 88.2,
"ip_rank": 113,
"h_value": 71.0,
"h_rank": 135,
"er_value": 28.0,
"er_rank": 176,
"hr_value": 10.0,
"hr_rank": 129,
"bb_value": 21.0,
"bb_rank": 212,
"k_value": 111.0,
"k_rank": 47,
"k_per_9_value": 11.266918,
"k_per_9_rank": 11,
"whip_value": 1.0375,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 2.78,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 1.0227,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 0.9486,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": -0.8717
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 4.507,
"home_runs": 3.2118
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 4.6093,
"home_runs": 3.0467,
"home_win_probability": 0.3515
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away MIL | 6-4 | 0.600 | 3.50 | 3.10 | 4 | 1L | average | strong |
| Home SD | 7-3 | 0.700 | 4.60 | 4.10 | 5 | 3W | average | average |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away MIL | 74-44 | 0.627 | 141 | 1.195 | True |
| Home SD | 62-57 | 0.521 | -10 | -0.084 | True |
| Signal | - | - | -1.279 | -0.880 | applied=True |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | MIL @ SD | 2 - 3 | SD | 1 | close |
| 2026-05-14 | SD @ MIL | 1 - 7 | MIL | 6 | blowout |
| 2026-05-13 | SD @ MIL | 3 - 1 | SD | 2 | close |
| 2026-05-12 | SD @ MIL | 4 - 6 | MIL | 2 | close |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target MIL | - | - | 4 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target SD | - | - | 3 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized MIL | 33 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
| Player finalized SD | 32 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| Player model fractional MIL | 32.31 | 9.56 | 4.46 | 1.08 | 4.13 | 3.62 | 7.97 |
| Player model fractional SD | 33.20 | 7.67 | 3.81 | 1.22 | 4.11 | 2.97 | 7.32 |
| Simulation box MIL | 35 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| Simulation box SD | 33 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away MIL | Starter | Kyle Harrison | 5.20 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3.74 | 1.01 | True |
| Away MIL | Middle Reliever | Aaron Ashby | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.87 | 1.45 | True |
| Away MIL | Middle Reliever | Abner Uribe | 1.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.80 | 1.07 | True |
| Away MIL | Middle Reliever | Trevor Megill | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.04 | 0.68 | True |
| Home SD | Starter | Walker Buehler | 4.20 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5.25 | 1.58 | True |
| Home SD | Middle Reliever | Adrian Morejon | 1.10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.68 | 0.89 | True |
| Home SD | Middle Reliever | Jeremiah Estrada | 1.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.31 | 1.18 | True |
| Home SD | Middle Reliever | Mason Miller | 1.10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.28 | 1.04 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away | MIL | batter | 2B | Jihwan Bae | worse | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H | -2.5000 | deboost | worse |
| away | MIL | batter | SS | Brice Turang | better | 10 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 2 | predicted_H | 1.9180 | boost | better |
| home | SD | batter | 1B | Ty France | better | 10 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 4 | predicted_RBI | 1.5600 | boost | better |
| home | SD | batter | 3B | Manny Machado | worse | 9 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 7 | predicted_AB | -1.4900 | deboost | worse |
| home | SD | batter | LF | Austin Hays | worse | 11 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 7 | predicted_H | 1.3900 | boost | better |
| away | MIL | batter | 1B | Jake Bauers | better | 9 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 3 | predicted_RBI | 1.3400 | boost | better |
| home | SD | batter | CF | Jackson Merrill | worse | 10 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 10 | predicted_H | -1.3200 | deboost | worse |
| away | MIL | batter | RF | Luis Lara | worse | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_SO | 1.2860 | boost | worse |
| home | SD | batter | SS | Xander Bogaerts | worse | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_SO | 1.2740 | boost | worse |
| home | SD | batter | C | Luis Campusano | worse | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | predicted_SO | 1.2500 | boost | worse |
| away | MIL | batter | CF | Garrett Mitchell | worse | 10 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 7 | predicted_H | -0.9000 | deboost | worse |
| home | SD | batter | RF | Fernando Tatis Jr. | worse | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | predicted_AB | -0.8900 | deboost | worse |
| away | MIL | batter | C | William Contreras | worse | 10 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 8 | predicted_H | -0.8700 | deboost | worse |
| away | MIL | batter | DH | Christian Yelich | worse | 9 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 5 | predicted_HR | 0.8500 | boost | better |
| home | SD | batter | DH | Luis Rengifo | worse | 8 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 6 | predicted_H | -0.7850 | deboost | worse |
| away | MIL | batter | 3B | David Hamilton | worse | 9 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | predicted_BB | 0.7040 | boost | better |
| away | MIL | batter | LF | Jackson Chourio | worse | 10 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 7 | predicted_R | -0.6990 | deboost | worse |
| home | SD | batter | 2B | Jake Cronenworth | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 8 | predicted_AB | 0.6270 | boost | better |
| away | MIL | pitcher | Starter | Kyle Harrison | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.4667 | deboost | worse |
| home | SD | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Adrian Morejon | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.2333 | deboost | worse |
| home | SD | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Jeremiah Estrada | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.2000 | boost | better |
| home | SD | pitcher | Starter | Walker Buehler | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.1333 | deboost | worse |
| away | MIL | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Abner Uribe | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.1000 | boost | better |
| home | SD | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Mason Miller | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.1000 | boost | better |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Kyle Harrison |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.6043 |
| ESPN Rank | 29 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.0129 |
| Avg Velo | 90.1425 |
| Avg Spin | 2194.6310 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 5.2000 |
| Pre ER | 3 |
| Pre H | 5 |
| Pre BB | 2 |
| Pre SO | 7 |
| Season ERA | 2.8421 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0376 |
| Role Avg IP | 4.9260 |
| Recent Avg IP | 4.6000 |
| Last Start IP | 5 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 130,
"wins": 78,
"losses": 52,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"runs_scored": 630.0,
"runs_allowed": 485.0,
"run_differential": 145.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1154,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8462,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7308,
"offense_index": 1.0789,
"defense_index": 1.2039,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
"run_differential": 4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2566
},
"opponent": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 126,
"wins": 65,
"losses": 61,
"win_pct": 0.5159,
"runs_scored": 538.0,
"runs_allowed": 555.0,
"run_differential": -17.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1349,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2698,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4048,
"offense_index": 0.9506,
"defense_index": 1.0197,
"current_streak": "W3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
"run_differential": 5.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.067
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.1896,
"offense_edge": 0.0789,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0494,
"defense_strength": 0.2039,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0197,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0157,
"run_prevention": 0.9622,
"strikeout": 1.0096
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "690986",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "690986",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 318.0,
"k_percent": 31.1,
"bb_percent": 5.9,
"woba": 0.275,
"xwoba": 0.27,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
"avg_best_speed": 79.1254,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9136,
"whiff_percent": 29.4,
"swing_percent": 49.5
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.6259,
"command_and_miss": 0.9171,
"regression_edge": 0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": 1.1714,
"barrel_edge": 0.1778,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.2143,
"whiff_edge": 0.5571,
"bb_edge": 0.75,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0129
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "690986",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 79,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 79,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.1424504081612,
"release_spin_rate": 2194.6310095092713,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 79,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.1424504081612,
"release_spin_rate": 2194.6310095092713,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 90.1425,
"release_spin_rate": 2194.631,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.0129,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.0923,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.6043,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9486,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0731,
"walk_factor": 0.94,
"homer_factor": 0.9421,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "690986",
"espn_id": 4683375,
"player_name": "Kyle Harrison",
"team": "MIL",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 29,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 29,
"gp_value": 18.0,
"gp_rank": 369,
"gs_value": 18.0,
"gs_rank": 93,
"qs_value": 6.0,
"qs_rank": 80,
"era_value": 2.8421,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 9.0,
"w_rank": 23,
"l_value": 2.0,
"l_rank": 279,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 88.2,
"ip_rank": 113,
"h_value": 71.0,
"h_rank": 135,
"er_value": 28.0,
"er_rank": 176,
"hr_value": 10.0,
"hr_rank": 129,
"bb_value": 21.0,
"bb_rank": 212,
"k_value": 111.0,
"k_rank": 47,
"k_per_9_value": 11.266918,
"k_per_9_rank": 11,
"whip_value": 1.0375,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 2.78,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9486,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 4.0,
"factor": 0.9486,
"adjusted": 4
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.94,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9421,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 6.0,
"factor": 1.0731,
"adjusted": 6
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 50.0,
"ER": 19,
"H": 38,
"BB": 8,
"SO": 63,
"HR": 7,
"ERA": 3.42,
"WHIP": 0.92,
"K9": 11.34,
"HR9": 1.26,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 4,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-05T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "690986",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 79,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 79,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.1424504081612,
"release_spin_rate": 2194.6310095092713,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 79,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.1424504081612,
"release_spin_rate": 2194.6310095092713,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 90.1425,
"release_spin_rate": 2194.631,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.0129,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.0923,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 18.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7826,
"prior_weight": 0.2174
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "690986",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 18,
"reference_playing_time": 5.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
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"ER": 10.0,
"R": 10.0,
"H": 17.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 31.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 90.0,
"Pitches": 388.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 3.4,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 6.2,
"HR": 0.6,
"BF": 18.0,
"Pitches": 77.6
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.8696,
"ER_per_IP": 0.43478,
"H_per_IP": 0.73913,
"BB_per_IP": 0.13043,
"SO_per_IP": 1.34783,
"HR_per_IP": 0.13043
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
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"ER": 19.0,
"R": 19.0,
"H": 38.0,
"BB": 8.0,
"SO": 63.0,
"HR": 7.0,
"BF": 197.0,
"Pitches": 831.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 1.9,
"R": 1.9,
"H": 3.8,
"BB": 0.8,
"SO": 6.3,
"HR": 0.7,
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"Pitches": 83.1
},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 0.38,
"H_per_IP": 0.76,
"BB_per_IP": 0.16,
"SO_per_IP": 1.26,
"HR_per_IP": 0.14
}
},
"season": {
"games": 18,
"totals": {
"IP": 88.2,
"ER": 28.0,
"R": 28.0,
"H": 71.0,
"BB": 21.0,
"SO": 111.0,
"HR": 10.0,
"BF": 357.0,
"Pitches": 1526.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.0,
"ER": 1.5556,
"R": 1.5556,
"H": 3.9444,
"BB": 1.1667,
"SO": 6.1667,
"HR": 0.5556,
"BF": 19.8333,
"Pitches": 84.7778
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.8421,
"WHIP": 1.0376,
"ER_per_IP": 0.31579,
"H_per_IP": 0.80075,
"BB_per_IP": 0.23684,
"SO_per_IP": 1.25188,
"HR_per_IP": 0.11278
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.086,
"predicted_H": 4.049,
"predicted_BB": 1.031,
"predicted_SO": 6.154,
"predicted_HR": 0.675,
"predicted_ERA": 3.7351,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.0104
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4419,
"form_weight": 0.5581,
"form_reliability": 0.7826,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 18.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7826,
"prior_weight": 0.2174
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 5.2,
"form": 5.0,
"final": 5.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 2.086,
"final": 2.4899,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 4.049,
"final": 4.4692,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.031,
"final": 1.4592,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 7.0,
"form": 6.154,
"final": 6.5278,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.675,
"final": 1.2605,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.7351,
"final": 3.7351,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.0104,
"final": 1.0104,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Aaron Ashby |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.7454 |
| ESPN Rank | 236 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 3.5635 |
| Season WHIP | 1.4162 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 130,
"wins": 78,
"losses": 52,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"runs_scored": 630.0,
"runs_allowed": 485.0,
"run_differential": 145.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1154,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8462,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7308,
"offense_index": 1.0789,
"defense_index": 1.2039,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
"run_differential": 4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2566
},
"opponent": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 126,
"wins": 65,
"losses": 61,
"win_pct": 0.5159,
"runs_scored": 538.0,
"runs_allowed": 555.0,
"run_differential": -17.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1349,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2698,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4048,
"offense_index": 0.9506,
"defense_index": 1.0197,
"current_streak": "W3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
"run_differential": 5.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.067
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.1896,
"offense_edge": 0.0789,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0494,
"defense_strength": 0.2039,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0197,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0157,
"run_prevention": 0.9622,
"strikeout": 1.0096
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "676879",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "676879",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 260.0,
"k_percent": 32.4,
"bb_percent": 11.4,
"woba": 0.297,
"xwoba": 0.268,
"sweet_spot_percent": 29.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
"avg_best_speed": 74.9318,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.3318,
"whiff_percent": 32.8,
"swing_percent": 41.0
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.7673,
"command_and_miss": 0.8957,
"regression_edge": 0.8286,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2286,
"barrel_edge": 0.6222,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.2,
"whiff_edge": 1.0429,
"bb_edge": -0.625,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "676879",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.7454,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9366,
"strikeout_factor": 1.1,
"walk_factor": 1.05,
"homer_factor": 0.9214,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.029,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "676879",
"espn_id": 41325,
"player_name": "Aaron Ashby",
"team": "MIL",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 236,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 236,
"gp_value": 55.0,
"gp_rank": 8,
"gs_value": 1.0,
"gs_rank": 279,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 3.5634,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 13.0,
"w_rank": 3,
"l_value": 2.0,
"l_rank": 279,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 10.0,
"hld_rank": 59,
"ip_value": 65.2,
"ip_rank": 158,
"h_value": 60.0,
"h_rank": 162,
"er_value": 26.0,
"er_rank": 190,
"hr_value": 5.0,
"hr_rank": 273,
"bb_value": 33.0,
"bb_rank": 84,
"k_value": 94.0,
"k_rank": 82,
"k_per_9_value": 12.883249,
"k_per_9_rank": 14,
"whip_value": 1.4162,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.49,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9366,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9366,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.05,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9214,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 1.1,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 4,
"H": 9,
"BB": 4,
"SO": 19,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 3.6,
"WHIP": 1.3,
"K9": 17.1,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-09T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "676879",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 13.133,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7243,
"prior_weight": 0.2757
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "676879",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 55,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 12.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 27.0,
"Pitches": 116.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.8,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 2.4,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 5.4,
"Pitches": 23.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 6.75,
"WHIP": 1.6875,
"ER_per_IP": 0.75,
"H_per_IP": 1.125,
"BB_per_IP": 0.5625,
"SO_per_IP": 2.25,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 9.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 19.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 45.0,
"Pitches": 193.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.5,
"H": 0.9,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.9,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.5,
"Pitches": 19.3
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.6,
"WHIP": 1.3,
"ER_per_IP": 0.4,
"H_per_IP": 0.9,
"BB_per_IP": 0.4,
"SO_per_IP": 1.9,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 55,
"totals": {
"IP": 65.2,
"ER": 26.0,
"R": 31.0,
"H": 60.0,
"BB": 33.0,
"SO": 94.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 290.0,
"Pitches": 1176.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.4727,
"R": 0.5636,
"H": 1.0909,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 1.7091,
"HR": 0.0909,
"BF": 5.2727,
"Pitches": 21.3818
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.5635,
"WHIP": 1.4162,
"ER_per_IP": 0.39594,
"H_per_IP": 0.91371,
"BB_per_IP": 0.50254,
"SO_per_IP": 1.43147,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07614
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.567,
"predicted_H": 1.043,
"predicted_BB": 0.479,
"predicted_SO": 1.768,
"predicted_HR": 0.054,
"predicted_ERA": 4.8659,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.4522
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4665,
"form_weight": 0.5335,
"form_reliability": 0.7243,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 13.133,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7243,
"prior_weight": 0.2757
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.567,
"final": 0.3025,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.043,
"final": 1.0229,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.479,
"final": 0.2556,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.768,
"final": 1.4097,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.054,
"final": 0.0288,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.8659,
"final": 4.8659,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.4522,
"final": 1.4522,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Abner Uribe |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.4644 |
| ESPN Rank | 65 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.0483 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0345 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 130,
"wins": 78,
"losses": 52,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"runs_scored": 630.0,
"runs_allowed": 485.0,
"run_differential": 145.0,
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}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Trevor Megill |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.4251 |
| ESPN Rank | 111 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 1.7868 |
| Season WHIP | 0.8162 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
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}
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"SO": 1.1522,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.7391,
"Pitches": 14.0652
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.7868,
"WHIP": 0.8162,
"ER_per_IP": 0.19853,
"H_per_IP": 0.57353,
"BB_per_IP": 0.24265,
"SO_per_IP": 1.16912,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.227,
"predicted_H": 0.492,
"predicted_BB": 0.183,
"predicted_SO": 0.835,
"predicted_HR": 0.053,
"predicted_ERA": 2.0429,
"predicted_WHIP": 0.6757
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5002,
"form_weight": 0.4998,
"form_reliability": 0.6445,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 9.066,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6445,
"prior_weight": 0.3555
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.227,
"final": 0.1135,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.492,
"final": 0.2459,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.183,
"final": 0.0915,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.835,
"final": 0.4173,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.053,
"final": 0.0265,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.0429,
"final": 2.0429,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 0.6757,
"final": 0.6757,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.245 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.271 | 0.000 | -0.271 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.040 | 0.000 | -0.040 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.909 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.996 | 4.000 | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.277 | 0.750 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.273 | 0.000 | 0.477 | 0.750 |
| predicted_BB | 0.555 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.564 | 0.000 | 0.436 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.031 | 0.000 | -0.031 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.082 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.093 | 0.000 | 1.907 | 3.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.145 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.154 | 0.000 | 0.846 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.367 | 0.800 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.361 | 0.000 | 0.439 | 0.800 |
| predicted_R | 0.673 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.749 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.673 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.725 | 0.000 | 0.275 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.465 | 1.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.477 | 0.000 | 1.023 | 1.500 |
| predicted_SO | 1.109 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.079 | 3.000 | -1.079 | -3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 8 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 1.0820 -> 3.0000 (boost 1.9180, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.1090 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.1090, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | predicted_SO: 1.1090 -> 1.1740 (boost 0.0650, worse) | predicted_SLG: 0.4650 -> 0.4496 (deboost -0.0154, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.5271 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4729, better) | predicted_2B: 0.2524 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2524, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.283 HR/AB=0.032 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6452 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3548, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_OBP: 0.3685 -> 0.4000 (boost 0.0315, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4538 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.2038, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4538 (boost 0.2038, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.4000 -> 0.3685 (deboost -0.0315, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "668930",
"player_name": "Brice Turang",
"position": "SS",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.245,
"predicted_3B": 0.027,
"predicted_AB": 3.909,
"predicted_AVG": 0.277,
"predicted_BB": 0.555,
"predicted_H": 1.082,
"predicted_HR": 0.145,
"predicted_OBP": 0.367,
"predicted_R": 0.673,
"predicted_RBI": 0.673,
"predicted_SLG": 0.465,
"predicted_SO": 1.109
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2524,
"predicted_3B": 0.0222,
"predicted_AB": 3.9129,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2805,
"predicted_BB": 0.5225,
"predicted_H": 1.0972,
"predicted_HBP": 0.002,
"predicted_HR": 0.1212,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3651,
"predicted_R": 0.6323,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6882,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4496,
"predicted_SO": 1.174
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.2524,
"delta": 0.0074,
"percent_delta": 0.0302,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.027,
"after": 0.0222,
"delta": -0.0048,
"percent_delta": -0.1778,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.909,
"after": 3.9129,
"delta": 0.0039,
"percent_delta": 0.001,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.2805,
"delta": 0.0035,
"percent_delta": 0.0126,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.555,
"after": 0.5225,
"delta": -0.0325,
"percent_delta": -0.0586,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.082,
"after": 1.0972,
"delta": 0.0152,
"percent_delta": 0.014,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.145,
"after": 0.1212,
"delta": -0.0238,
"percent_delta": -0.1641,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.367,
"after": 0.3651,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.673,
"after": 0.6323,
"delta": -0.0407,
"percent_delta": -0.0605,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.673,
"after": 0.6882,
"delta": 0.0152,
"percent_delta": 0.0226,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.465,
"after": 0.4496,
"delta": -0.0154,
"percent_delta": -0.0331,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.109,
"after": 1.174,
"delta": 0.065,
"percent_delta": 0.0586,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 1.174,
"delta": 0.065,
"percent_delta": 0.0586,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.465,
"after": 0.4496,
"delta": -0.0154,
"percent_delta": -0.0331,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 110
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2524,
"predicted_3B": 0.0222,
"predicted_AB": 3.9129,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2835,
"predicted_BB": 0.5271,
"predicted_H": 1.1092,
"predicted_HBP": 0.002,
"predicted_HR": 0.1233,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3685,
"predicted_R": 0.6452,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7022,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4538,
"predicted_SO": 1.1637
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.2524,
"after": 0.2524,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0222,
"after": 0.0222,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.9129,
"after": 3.9129,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.2835,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0107,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5225,
"after": 0.5271,
"delta": 0.0046,
"percent_delta": 0.0088,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0972,
"after": 1.1092,
"delta": 0.012,
"percent_delta": 0.0109,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.002,
"after": 0.002,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1212,
"after": 0.1233,
"delta": 0.0021,
"percent_delta": 0.0173,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3651,
"after": 0.3685,
"delta": 0.0034,
"percent_delta": 0.0093,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6323,
"after": 0.6452,
"delta": 0.0129,
"percent_delta": 0.0204,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.014,
"percent_delta": 0.0203,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"after": 0.4538,
"delta": 0.0042,
"percent_delta": 0.0093,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": -0.0103,
"percent_delta": -0.0088,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
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"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.283 HR/AB=0.032",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2524,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2524,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0222,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0871,
"percent_delta": 0.0223,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.4729,
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.1092,
"percent_delta": -0.0984,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.002,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1233,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2978,
"percent_delta": 0.4241,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.1637,
"percent_delta": -0.1407,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4729,
"percent_delta": 0.8972,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2524,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6452,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3548,
"percent_delta": 0.5499,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
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"biggest_boost": {
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.25,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": -0.2038,
"percent_delta": -0.4491,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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}
],
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"direction": "deboost",
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
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"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2835,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3685,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4538,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.3685,
"delta": -0.0315,
"percent_delta": -0.0787,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4538,
"delta": 0.2038,
"percent_delta": 0.8153,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"percent_delta": 0.8153,
"direction": "boost",
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},
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"delta": -0.0315,
"percent_delta": -0.0787,
"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.245,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.027,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.027,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.909,
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"delta": 0.091,
"percent_delta": 0.0233,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.277,
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"delta": 0.0065,
"percent_delta": 0.0235,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.555,
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"delta": 0.445,
"percent_delta": 0.8018,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.082,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 1.918,
"percent_delta": 1.7726,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.145,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.855,
"percent_delta": 5.8966,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.367,
"after": 0.3685,
"delta": 0.0015,
"percent_delta": 0.0041,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.673,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.327,
"percent_delta": 0.4859,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.673,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.327,
"percent_delta": 0.4859,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.465,
"after": 0.4538,
"delta": -0.0112,
"percent_delta": -0.0241,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.109,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.109,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 7,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 8,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 1.082,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 1.918,
"percent_delta": 1.7726,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 1.109,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.109,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.245 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.909 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.277 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.555 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.082 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.145 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.367 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.673 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.673 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.465 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.109 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.252 | 0.007 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.913 | 0.004 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.281 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.522 | -0.033 |
| predicted_H | 1.097 | 0.015 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.121 | -0.024 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.365 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.632 | -0.041 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.688 | 0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.450 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 1.174 | 0.065 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.252 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.913 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.283 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.527 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 1.109 | 0.012 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.123 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.368 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.645 | 0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.702 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.454 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 1.164 | -0.010 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.283 HR/AB=0.032
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.252 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.022 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.087 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.033 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.473 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.109 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.123 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.400 | 0.032 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.355 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.298 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.204 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.164 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 0.3500 | 0.4091 | 0.4500 | 0.3500 | 0.0000 | 0.2500 | 0.1000 | 0.4000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 15.000 | 0.2564 | 0.3256 | 0.3077 | 0.2564 | 0.0000 | 0.1538 | 0.1026 | 0.3846 |
| season | 0.60 | 110 | - | 430.000 | 119.000 | 27.000 | 3.000 | 16.000 | 74.000 | 74.000 | 61.000 | 122.000 | 0.2767 | 0.3651 | 0.4651 | 0.2767 | 0.0372 | 0.1721 | 0.1419 | 0.2837 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2620 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9180 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2851 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4800 |
| predicted_H | 1.1170 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0020 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3625 |
| predicted_R | 0.5790 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7080 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4294 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2590 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2450 | 0.2620 | 0.2524 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0270 | 0.0160 | 0.0222 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9090 | 3.9180 | 3.9129 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2770 | 0.2851 | 0.2805 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5550 | 0.4800 | 0.5225 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0820 | 1.1170 | 1.0972 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0020 | 0.0020 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1450 | 0.0900 | 0.1212 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3670 | 0.3625 | 0.3651 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6730 | 0.5790 | 0.6323 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6730 | 0.7080 | 0.6882 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4650 | 0.4294 | 0.4496 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1090 | 1.2590 | 1.1740 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 454 |
| Season rows before report date | 454 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 110 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 3 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.277 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 3 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260810_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 668930 |
| playerID | 668930 |
| playerName | Brice Turang |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.359 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.346 |
| sl_xba | 0.258 |
| sl_xslg | 0.439 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 8.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.218 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.259 | 0.000 | -0.259 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.040 | 0.000 | -0.040 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.180 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.544 | 3.000 | 0.456 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.273 | 0.000 | -0.273 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.446 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.447 | 1.000 | 0.553 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.051 | 0.000 | -0.051 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.900 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.966 | 0.000 | -0.966 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | -0.080 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | 0.200 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.357 | 0.250 | -0.157 | -0.050 |
| predicted_R | 0.465 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.541 | 0.000 | -0.541 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.430 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.541 | 0.000 | -0.541 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.325 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.436 | 0.000 | -0.436 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.208 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.228 | 3.000 | -0.228 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.4460 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5540, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.9000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_OBP: 0.3070 -> 0.3122 (boost 0.0052, better) | predicted_AB: 4.1800 -> 3.8177 (deboost -0.3623, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3209 -> 0.3608 (boost 0.0399, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3122 -> 0.3014 (deboost -0.0108, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.8162 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1838, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4785 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4785, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.024 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4408 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4408, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2138 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0362, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3608 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1108, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3608 (boost 0.1108, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2138 (deboost -0.0362, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669003",
"player_name": "Garrett Mitchell",
"position": "CF",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.218,
"predicted_3B": 0.03,
"predicted_AB": 4.18,
"predicted_AVG": 0.216,
"predicted_BB": 0.446,
"predicted_H": 0.9,
"predicted_HR": 0.14,
"predicted_OBP": 0.307,
"predicted_R": 0.465,
"predicted_RBI": 0.43,
"predicted_SLG": 0.325,
"predicted_SO": 1.208
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.206,
"predicted_3B": 0.0249,
"predicted_AB": 3.8177,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2114,
"predicted_BB": 0.4743,
"predicted_H": 0.8074,
"predicted_HBP": 0.044,
"predicted_HR": 0.1001,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3122,
"predicted_R": 0.432,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3854,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3209,
"predicted_SO": 1.1904
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.218,
"after": 0.206,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -0.055,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 0.0249,
"delta": -0.0051,
"percent_delta": -0.17,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.18,
"after": 3.8177,
"delta": -0.3623,
"percent_delta": -0.0867,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.216,
"after": 0.2114,
"delta": -0.0046,
"percent_delta": -0.0213,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.446,
"after": 0.4743,
"delta": 0.0283,
"percent_delta": 0.0635,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9,
"after": 0.8074,
"delta": -0.0926,
"percent_delta": -0.1029,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.1001,
"delta": -0.0399,
"percent_delta": -0.285,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.307,
"after": 0.3122,
"delta": 0.0052,
"percent_delta": 0.0169,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.465,
"after": 0.432,
"delta": -0.033,
"percent_delta": -0.071,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.43,
"after": 0.3854,
"delta": -0.0446,
"percent_delta": -0.1037,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.3209,
"delta": -0.0041,
"percent_delta": -0.0126,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.208,
"after": 1.1904,
"delta": -0.0176,
"percent_delta": -0.0146,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.307,
"after": 0.3122,
"delta": 0.0052,
"percent_delta": 0.0169,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.18,
"after": 3.8177,
"delta": -0.3623,
"percent_delta": -0.0867,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 101
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.206,
"predicted_3B": 0.0249,
"predicted_AB": 3.8177,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2138,
"predicted_BB": 0.4785,
"predicted_H": 0.8162,
"predicted_HBP": 0.044,
"predicted_HR": 0.1018,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3014,
"predicted_R": 0.4408,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3933,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3608,
"predicted_SO": 1.1799
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.206,
"after": 0.206,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0249,
"after": 0.0249,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8177,
"after": 3.8177,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2114,
"after": 0.2138,
"delta": 0.0024,
"percent_delta": 0.0114,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4743,
"after": 0.4785,
"delta": 0.0042,
"percent_delta": 0.0089,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8074,
"after": 0.8162,
"delta": 0.0088,
"percent_delta": 0.0109,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.044,
"after": 0.044,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1001,
"after": 0.1018,
"delta": 0.0017,
"percent_delta": 0.017,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3122,
"after": 0.3014,
"delta": -0.0108,
"percent_delta": -0.0346,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.432,
"after": 0.4408,
"delta": 0.0088,
"percent_delta": 0.0204,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3854,
"after": 0.3933,
"delta": 0.0079,
"percent_delta": 0.0205,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3209,
"after": 0.3608,
"delta": 0.0399,
"percent_delta": 0.1243,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.1904,
"after": 1.1799,
"delta": -0.0105,
"percent_delta": -0.0088,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3209,
"after": 0.3608,
"delta": 0.0399,
"percent_delta": 0.1243,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3122,
"after": 0.3014,
"delta": -0.0108,
"percent_delta": -0.0346,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.024",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.206,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.206,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0249,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0249,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8177,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.1823,
"percent_delta": 0.0478,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4785,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4785,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8162,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1838,
"percent_delta": 0.2252,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.044,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.044,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1018,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1018,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3933,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3933,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.1799,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.1799,
"percent_delta": -0.1525,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
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"stats": {
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],
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},
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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"stats": {
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},
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{
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{
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AVG": 0.2138,
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"predicted_CF": 0.0,
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"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3014,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3608,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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"percent_delta": 1.2422,
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},
{
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"before": 0.9,
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},
{
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"before": 0.14,
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},
{
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"before": 0.307,
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},
{
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"before": 0.465,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.43,
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"delta": -0.43,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.325,
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"delta": 0.0358,
"percent_delta": 0.1102,
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"material": true
},
{
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"before": 1.208,
"after": 1.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.554,
"percent_delta": 1.2422,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.9,
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.218 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.180 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.446 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.900 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.465 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.430 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.325 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.208 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.206 | -0.012 |
| predicted_3B | 0.025 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.818 | -0.362 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.211 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.474 | 0.028 |
| predicted_H | 0.807 | -0.093 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.044 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | -0.040 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.432 | -0.033 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.385 | -0.045 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.321 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 1.190 | -0.018 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.206 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.818 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.214 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.478 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.816 | 0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.044 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.102 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.301 | -0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.441 | 0.009 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.393 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.361 | 0.040 |
| predicted_SO | 1.180 | -0.010 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.024
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.206 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.025 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.182 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.036 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.478 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.184 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.102 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.051 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.441 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.393 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.111 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.180 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.1765 | 0.3000 | 0.2353 | 0.1765 | 0.0000 | 0.0588 | 0.1765 | 0.2941 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 13.000 | 0.0938 | 0.2750 | 0.1250 | 0.0938 | 0.0000 | 0.0312 | 0.2188 | 0.4062 |
| season | 0.60 | 101 | - | 333.000 | 82.000 | 22.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 43.000 | 47.000 | 45.000 | 122.000 | 0.2462 | 0.3420 | 0.3934 | 0.2462 | 0.0210 | 0.1291 | 0.1351 | 0.3664 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1900 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0180 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3350 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2052 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5120 |
| predicted_H | 0.6840 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0440 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0470 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3191 |
| predicted_R | 0.3880 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3260 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3154 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1670 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2180 | 0.1900 | 0.2060 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0300 | 0.0180 | 0.0249 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.1800 | 3.3350 | 3.8177 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2160 | 0.2052 | 0.2114 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4460 | 0.5120 | 0.4743 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9000 | 0.6840 | 0.8074 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0440 | 0.0440 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1400 | 0.0470 | 0.1001 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3070 | 0.3191 | 0.3122 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4650 | 0.3880 | 0.4320 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4300 | 0.3260 | 0.3854 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3250 | 0.3154 | 0.3209 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.2080 | 1.1670 | 1.1904 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 351 |
| Season rows before report date | 351 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 101 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.246 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 3 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260810_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669003 |
| playerID | 669003 |
| playerName | Garrett Mitchell |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.338 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.351 |
| sl_xba | 0.258 |
| sl_xslg | 0.445 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 13.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 51.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 2.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 36.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.241 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.276 | 0.000 | -0.276 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.720 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.269 | 4.000 | 0.731 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.289 | 0.750 | -0.089 | -0.550 |
| predicted_BB | 0.386 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.384 | 0.000 | -0.384 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.019 | 1.000 | -0.019 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.250 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.235 | 3.000 | -0.235 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.310 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.192 | 0.000 | -0.192 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.391 | 0.200 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.350 | 0.750 | -0.150 | -0.550 |
| predicted_R | 0.699 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.786 | 0.000 | -0.786 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.590 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.622 | 0.000 | -0.622 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.554 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.489 | 0.750 | -0.289 | -0.550 |
| predicted_SO | 1.120 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.189 | 1.000 | -0.189 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 4.7200 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.2800, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.6990 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6990, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.3860 -> 0.4751 (boost 0.0891, better) | predicted_AB: 4.7200 -> 4.3523 (deboost -0.3677, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3927 -> 0.3545 (deboost -0.0382, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | predicted_AB: 4.3523 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.6477, better) | predicted_HR: 0.3214 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3214, worse) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.068 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6909 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3091, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5524 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.3524, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2000 -> 0.5524 (boost 0.3524, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "694192",
"player_name": "Jackson Chourio",
"position": "LF",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.241,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.72,
"predicted_AVG": 0.264,
"predicted_BB": 0.386,
"predicted_H": 1.25,
"predicted_HR": 0.31,
"predicted_OBP": 0.391,
"predicted_R": 0.699,
"predicted_RBI": 0.59,
"predicted_SLG": 0.554,
"predicted_SO": 1.12
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2059,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.3523,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2818,
"predicted_BB": 0.4751,
"predicted_H": 1.22,
"predicted_HBP": 0.015,
"predicted_HR": 0.316,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3927,
"predicted_R": 0.6771,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5763,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5733,
"predicted_SO": 1.0939
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.2059,
"delta": -0.0351,
"percent_delta": -0.1456,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.72,
"after": 4.3523,
"delta": -0.3677,
"percent_delta": -0.0779,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.264,
"after": 0.2818,
"delta": 0.0178,
"percent_delta": 0.0674,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.386,
"after": 0.4751,
"delta": 0.0891,
"percent_delta": 0.2308,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.25,
"after": 1.22,
"delta": -0.03,
"percent_delta": -0.024,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.316,
"delta": 0.006,
"percent_delta": 0.0194,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.391,
"after": 0.3927,
"delta": 0.0017,
"percent_delta": 0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.699,
"after": 0.6771,
"delta": -0.0219,
"percent_delta": -0.0313,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.59,
"after": 0.5763,
"delta": -0.0137,
"percent_delta": -0.0232,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.554,
"after": 0.5733,
"delta": 0.0193,
"percent_delta": 0.0348,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.12,
"after": 1.0939,
"delta": -0.0261,
"percent_delta": -0.0233,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.386,
"after": 0.4751,
"delta": 0.0891,
"percent_delta": 0.2308,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.72,
"after": 4.3523,
"delta": -0.3677,
"percent_delta": -0.0779,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 83
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2059,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.3523,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2834,
"predicted_BB": 0.4793,
"predicted_H": 1.2333,
"predicted_HBP": 0.015,
"predicted_HR": 0.3214,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3545,
"predicted_R": 0.6909,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5881,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5524,
"predicted_SO": 1.0843
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2059,
"after": 0.2059,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.3523,
"after": 4.3523,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2818,
"after": 0.2834,
"delta": 0.0016,
"percent_delta": 0.0057,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4751,
"after": 0.4793,
"delta": 0.0042,
"percent_delta": 0.0088,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.22,
"after": 1.2333,
"delta": 0.0133,
"percent_delta": 0.0109,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.015,
"after": 0.015,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.316,
"after": 0.3214,
"delta": 0.0054,
"percent_delta": 0.0171,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3927,
"after": 0.3545,
"delta": -0.0382,
"percent_delta": -0.0973,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6771,
"after": 0.6909,
"delta": 0.0138,
"percent_delta": 0.0204,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5763,
"after": 0.5881,
"delta": 0.0118,
"percent_delta": 0.0205,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5733,
"after": 0.5524,
"delta": -0.0209,
"percent_delta": -0.0365,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0939,
"after": 1.0843,
"delta": -0.0096,
"percent_delta": -0.0088,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3927,
"after": 0.3545,
"delta": -0.0382,
"percent_delta": -0.0973,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
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"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.72,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.28,
"percent_delta": 0.0593,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.699,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.699,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.241 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.720 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.386 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.250 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.310 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.391 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.699 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.590 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.554 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.120 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.206 | -0.035 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.352 | -0.368 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.282 | 0.018 |
| predicted_BB | 0.475 | 0.089 |
| predicted_H | 1.220 | -0.030 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.015 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.316 | 0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.393 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.677 | -0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.576 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.573 | 0.019 |
| predicted_SO | 1.094 | -0.026 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.206 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.352 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.283 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.479 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 1.233 | 0.013 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.321 | 0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.354 | -0.038 |
| predicted_R | 0.691 | 0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.588 | 0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.552 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SO | 1.084 | -0.010 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.068
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.206 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.648 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.521 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.233 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.321 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | -0.021 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.309 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.412 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.200 | -0.352 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.084 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 0.3529 | 0.5000 | 0.8824 | 0.3529 | 0.1765 | 0.1765 | 0.2941 | 0.2941 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 12.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 8.000 | 10.000 | 0.3429 | 0.4651 | 0.7143 | 0.3429 | 0.1143 | 0.1429 | 0.2286 | 0.2857 |
| season | 0.60 | 83 | - | 344.000 | 98.000 | 20.000 | 0.000 | 17.000 | 47.000 | 58.000 | 32.000 | 93.000 | 0.2849 | 0.3483 | 0.4913 | 0.2849 | 0.0494 | 0.1366 | 0.0930 | 0.2703 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1590 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8620 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3056 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5940 |
| predicted_H | 1.1800 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0150 |
| predicted_HR | 0.3240 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3949 |
| predicted_R | 0.6480 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5580 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5991 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0590 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2410 | 0.1590 | 0.2059 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.7200 | 3.8620 | 4.3523 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2640 | 0.3056 | 0.2818 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3860 | 0.5940 | 0.4751 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.2500 | 1.1800 | 1.2200 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0150 | 0.0150 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.3100 | 0.3240 | 0.3160 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3910 | 0.3949 | 0.3927 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6990 | 0.6480 | 0.6771 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5900 | 0.5580 | 0.5763 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5540 | 0.5991 | 0.5733 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1200 | 1.0590 | 1.0939 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 323 |
| Season rows before report date | 323 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 83 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.285 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 1 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.75 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 3 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 3 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260810_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 694192 |
| playerID | 694192 |
| playerName | Jackson Chourio |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.352 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.343 |
| sl_xba | 0.256 |
| sl_xslg | 0.483 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 14.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 47.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.190 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.085 | 0.000 | 0.915 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.048 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.021 | 0.000 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.095 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.043 | 3.000 | 0.957 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.231 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.245 | 0.333 | 0.005 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.429 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.532 | 0.000 | -0.532 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.021 | 0.000 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.714 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.745 | 1.000 | 0.255 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.355 | 0.333 | -0.105 | -0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.234 | 0.000 | -0.234 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.524 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.404 | 0.000 | -0.404 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.323 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.287 | 0.333 | 0.213 | 0.167 |
| predicted_SO | 0.714 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.660 | 0.000 | 1.340 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 7 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.7140 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.2860, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.5240 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5240, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.0950 -> 3.1800 (boost 0.0850, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3240 -> 0.3177 (deboost -0.0063, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.7329 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2671, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4951 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4951, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.004 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3469 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3469, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2305 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1025, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2305 (deboost -0.1025, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "800325",
"player_name": "Luis Lara",
"position": "RF",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.19,
"predicted_3B": 0.048,
"predicted_AB": 3.095,
"predicted_AVG": 0.231,
"predicted_BB": 0.429,
"predicted_H": 0.714,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.324,
"predicted_R": 0.333,
"predicted_RBI": 0.524,
"predicted_SLG": 0.323,
"predicted_SO": 0.714
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1742,
"predicted_3B": 0.0451,
"predicted_AB": 3.18,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2283,
"predicted_BB": 0.4173,
"predicted_H": 0.725,
"predicted_HBP": 0.008,
"predicted_HR": 0.0121,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3177,
"predicted_R": 0.34,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4852,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3225,
"predicted_SO": 0.7719
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.1742,
"delta": -0.0158,
"percent_delta": -0.0832,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.048,
"after": 0.0451,
"delta": -0.0029,
"percent_delta": -0.0604,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.095,
"after": 3.18,
"delta": 0.085,
"percent_delta": 0.0275,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.231,
"after": 0.2283,
"delta": -0.0027,
"percent_delta": -0.0117,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.429,
"after": 0.4173,
"delta": -0.0117,
"percent_delta": -0.0273,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.714,
"after": 0.725,
"delta": 0.011,
"percent_delta": 0.0154,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0121,
"delta": 0.0121,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.3177,
"delta": -0.0063,
"percent_delta": -0.0194,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.34,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.021,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.524,
"after": 0.4852,
"delta": -0.0388,
"percent_delta": -0.074,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.323,
"after": 0.3225,
"delta": -0.0005,
"percent_delta": -0.0015,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.714,
"after": 0.7719,
"delta": 0.0579,
"percent_delta": 0.0811,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.095,
"after": 3.18,
"delta": 0.085,
"percent_delta": 0.0275,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.3177,
"delta": -0.0063,
"percent_delta": -0.0194,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 21
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1742,
"predicted_3B": 0.0451,
"predicted_AB": 3.18,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2305,
"predicted_BB": 0.421,
"predicted_H": 0.7329,
"predicted_HBP": 0.008,
"predicted_HR": 0.0123,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3204,
"predicted_R": 0.3469,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4951,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3252,
"predicted_SO": 0.7651
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1742,
"after": 0.1742,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0451,
"after": 0.0451,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.18,
"after": 3.18,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2283,
"after": 0.2305,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.0096,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4173,
"after": 0.421,
"delta": 0.0037,
"percent_delta": 0.0089,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.725,
"after": 0.7329,
"delta": 0.0079,
"percent_delta": 0.0109,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.008,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0121,
"after": 0.0123,
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"percent_delta": 0.4006,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.3204,
"delta": -0.0036,
"percent_delta": -0.0111,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.333,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.524,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.524,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.323,
"after": 0.3252,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.0068,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.714,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.286,
"percent_delta": 1.8011,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.714,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.286,
"percent_delta": 1.8011,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.524,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.524,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.048 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.095 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.231 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.429 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.714 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.524 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.323 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.714 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.174 | -0.016 |
| predicted_3B | 0.045 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.180 | 0.085 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.417 | -0.012 |
| predicted_H | 0.725 | 0.011 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.008 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.340 | 0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.485 | -0.039 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.323 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.772 | 0.058 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.174 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.045 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.180 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.231 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.421 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.733 | 0.008 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.320 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.347 | 0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.495 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.325 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.765 | -0.007 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.004
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.174 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.045 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.180 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.103 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.421 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.267 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.347 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.495 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.235 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.2000 | 0.2941 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1333 | 0.4000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 10.000 | 0.1765 | 0.2821 | 0.2647 | 0.1765 | 0.0000 | 0.1177 | 0.1471 | 0.2941 |
| season | 0.60 | 21 | - | 65.000 | 15.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 11.000 | 7.000 | 9.000 | 15.000 | 0.2308 | 0.3200 | 0.3231 | 0.2308 | 0.0000 | 0.1692 | 0.1385 | 0.2308 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1470 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0400 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3270 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2236 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3970 |
| predicted_H | 0.7440 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0080 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0330 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3068 |
| predicted_R | 0.3520 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4180 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3217 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8720 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1900 | 0.1470 | 0.1742 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0480 | 0.0400 | 0.0451 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.0950 | 3.3270 | 3.1800 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2310 | 0.2236 | 0.2283 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4290 | 0.3970 | 0.4173 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7140 | 0.7440 | 0.7250 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0080 | 0.0080 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0330 | 0.0121 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3240 | 0.3068 | 0.3177 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3330 | 0.3520 | 0.3400 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5240 | 0.4180 | 0.4852 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3230 | 0.3217 | 0.3225 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7140 | 0.8720 | 0.7719 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 47 |
| Season rows before report date | 47 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 21 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.231 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260810_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 800325 |
| playerID | 800325 |
| playerName | Luis Lara |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 14.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.306 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.317 |
| sl_xba | 0.257 |
| sl_xslg | 0.333 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 7.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 35.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.147 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.149 | 1.000 | -0.149 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.422 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.581 | 4.000 | -0.581 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.287 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.258 | 0.250 | 0.076 | 0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.539 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.623 | 0.000 | 0.377 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.005 | 0.000 | -0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.970 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.923 | 1.000 | 0.077 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.207 | 0.000 | -0.207 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.381 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.370 | 0.250 | 0.130 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.657 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.682 | 0.000 | 0.318 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.660 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.684 | 0.000 | 1.316 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.511 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.480 | 0.500 | -0.147 | -0.167 |
| predicted_SO | 1.039 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.130 | 0.000 | -1.130 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.6600 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3400, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.0390 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0390, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.5110 -> 0.5198 (boost 0.0088, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3826 -> 0.3880 (boost 0.0054, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.6616 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3384, better) | predicted_BB: 0.5628 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5628, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.059 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6651 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3349, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2878 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0452, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.5223 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.1893, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.5223 (boost 0.1893, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2878 (deboost -0.0452, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "641343",
"player_name": "Jake Bauers",
"position": "1B",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.147,
"predicted_3B": 0.02,
"predicted_AB": 3.422,
"predicted_AVG": 0.287,
"predicted_BB": 0.539,
"predicted_H": 0.97,
"predicted_HR": 0.19,
"predicted_OBP": 0.381,
"predicted_R": 0.657,
"predicted_RBI": 0.66,
"predicted_SLG": 0.511,
"predicted_SO": 1.039
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1487,
"predicted_3B": 0.0243,
"predicted_AB": 3.4375,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2867,
"predicted_BB": 0.5579,
"predicted_H": 0.9786,
"predicted_HBP": 0.019,
"predicted_HR": 0.1995,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3826,
"predicted_R": 0.6518,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6484,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5198,
"predicted_SO": 1.0205
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.147,
"after": 0.1487,
"delta": 0.0017,
"percent_delta": 0.0116,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.0243,
"delta": 0.0043,
"percent_delta": 0.215,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.422,
"after": 3.4375,
"delta": 0.0155,
"percent_delta": 0.0045,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.287,
"after": 0.2867,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.001,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.539,
"after": 0.5579,
"delta": 0.0189,
"percent_delta": 0.0351,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.97,
"after": 0.9786,
"delta": 0.0086,
"percent_delta": 0.0089,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.1995,
"delta": 0.0095,
"percent_delta": 0.05,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.381,
"after": 0.3826,
"delta": 0.0016,
"percent_delta": 0.0042,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.657,
"after": 0.6518,
"delta": -0.0052,
"percent_delta": -0.0079,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 0.6484,
"delta": -0.0116,
"percent_delta": -0.0176,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.511,
"after": 0.5198,
"delta": 0.0088,
"percent_delta": 0.0172,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.039,
"after": 1.0205,
"delta": -0.0185,
"percent_delta": -0.0178,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.511,
"after": 0.5198,
"delta": 0.0088,
"percent_delta": 0.0172,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 102
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1487,
"predicted_3B": 0.0243,
"predicted_AB": 3.4375,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2878,
"predicted_BB": 0.5628,
"predicted_H": 0.9893,
"predicted_HBP": 0.019,
"predicted_HR": 0.2029,
"predicted_OBP": 0.388,
"predicted_R": 0.6651,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6616,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5223,
"predicted_SO": 1.0115
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1487,
"after": 0.1487,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.5223,
"delta": 0.1893,
"percent_delta": 0.5683,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2878,
"delta": -0.0452,
"percent_delta": -0.1358,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.147,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.147,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.02,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.422,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.422,
"percent_delta": -0.1233,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.287,
"after": 0.2878,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.0028,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.539,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.461,
"percent_delta": 0.8553,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.97,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.03,
"percent_delta": 0.0309,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.19,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.381,
"after": 0.388,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0184,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.657,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.343,
"percent_delta": 0.5221,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.34,
"percent_delta": 2.0303,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.511,
"after": 0.5223,
"delta": 0.0113,
"percent_delta": 0.0221,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.039,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.039,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.34,
"percent_delta": 2.0303,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.039,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.039,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.147 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.422 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.287 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.539 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.970 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.381 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.657 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.660 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.511 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.039 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.149 | 0.002 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | 0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 3.438 | 0.015 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.287 | -0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.558 | 0.019 |
| predicted_H | 0.979 | 0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.019 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | 0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.383 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.652 | -0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.648 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.520 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 1.020 | -0.018 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.149 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.438 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.288 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.563 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 0.989 | 0.011 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.203 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.388 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.665 | 0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.662 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.522 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 1.012 | -0.009 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.059
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.149 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.024 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.438 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.045 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.563 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.011 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.203 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | -0.055 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.335 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.338 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.189 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.012 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 0.2941 | 0.4091 | 0.5294 | 0.2941 | 0.0588 | 0.1765 | 0.2353 | 0.3529 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 12.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | 6.000 | 7.000 | 0.3429 | 0.4286 | 0.6857 | 0.3429 | 0.0857 | 0.2000 | 0.1714 | 0.2000 |
| season | 0.60 | 102 | - | 349.000 | 94.000 | 15.000 | 2.000 | 20.000 | 65.000 | 67.000 | 55.000 | 106.000 | 0.2693 | 0.3716 | 0.4957 | 0.2693 | 0.0573 | 0.1862 | 0.1576 | 0.3037 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1510 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0300 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4580 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2862 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5830 |
| predicted_H | 0.9900 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0190 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2120 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3847 |
| predicted_R | 0.6450 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6330 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5315 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9960 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1470 | 0.1510 | 0.1487 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0200 | 0.0300 | 0.0243 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4220 | 3.4580 | 3.4375 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2870 | 0.2862 | 0.2867 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5390 | 0.5830 | 0.5579 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9700 | 0.9900 | 0.9786 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0190 | 0.0190 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1900 | 0.2120 | 0.1995 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3810 | 0.3847 | 0.3826 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6570 | 0.6450 | 0.6518 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6600 | 0.6330 | 0.6484 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5110 | 0.5315 | 0.5198 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0390 | 0.9960 | 1.0205 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 377 |
| Season rows before report date | 377 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 102 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.269 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260810_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 641343 |
| playerID | 641343 |
| playerName | Jake Bauers |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.381 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.37 |
| sl_xba | 0.26 |
| sl_xslg | 0.483 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 14.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 53.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 10.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 40.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_AVG | 1.000 | 1.000 | -1.000 | -1.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.500 | 0.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | -1.000 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_OBP | 1.000 | 1.000 | -1.000 | -1.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 1.000 | 1.000 | -1.000 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 6 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.5000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.5000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 2.5000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -2.5000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | predicted_AB: 2.5000 -> 2.7025 (boost 0.2025, better) | predicted_H: 2.5000 -> 2.2516 (deboost -0.2484, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.8878 -> 0.8447 (deboost -0.0431, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | predicted_SO: 0.1329 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8671, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.0777 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.0777, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.842 HR/AB=0.008 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.0802 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.0802, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.8422 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1578, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 3.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -3.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 1.0000 -> 0.8422 (deboost -0.1578, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "678225",
"player_name": "Jihwan Bae",
"position": "2B",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.5,
"predicted_AVG": 1.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.5,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0284,
"predicted_3B": 0.0025,
"predicted_AB": 2.7025,
"predicted_AVG": 0.8785,
"predicted_BB": 0.0417,
"predicted_H": 2.2516,
"predicted_HBP": 0.031,
"predicted_HR": 0.021,
"predicted_OBP": 0.8878,
"predicted_R": 0.0786,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0761,
"predicted_SLG": 0.9045,
"predicted_SO": 0.1341
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0284,
"delta": 0.0284,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0025,
"delta": 0.0025,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 2.7025,
"delta": 0.2025,
"percent_delta": 0.081,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.8785,
"delta": -0.1215,
"percent_delta": -0.1215,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0417,
"delta": 0.0417,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 2.2516,
"delta": -0.2484,
"percent_delta": -0.0994,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.021,
"delta": 0.021,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.8878,
"delta": -0.1122,
"percent_delta": -0.1122,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0786,
"delta": 0.0786,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.8447,
"delta": -0.1553,
"percent_delta": -0.1553,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.8783,
"delta": -0.1217,
"percent_delta": -0.1217,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.8422,
"delta": -0.1578,
"percent_delta": -0.1578,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.5,
"percent_delta": 0.6,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.8422,
"delta": -0.1578,
"percent_delta": -0.1578,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.5,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.8447,
"delta": -0.1553,
"percent_delta": -0.1553,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.8783,
"delta": -0.1217,
"percent_delta": -0.1217,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.5,
"percent_delta": 0.6,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.5,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.500 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.028 | 0.028 |
| predicted_3B | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 2.703 | 0.203 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.878 | -0.122 |
| predicted_BB | 0.042 | 0.042 |
| predicted_H | 2.252 | -0.248 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.031 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.021 | 0.021 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.888 | -0.112 |
| predicted_R | 0.079 | 0.079 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.076 | 0.076 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.904 | -0.096 |
| predicted_SO | 0.134 | 0.134 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.703 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.842 | -0.036 |
| predicted_BB | 0.042 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.276 | 0.025 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.031 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.845 | -0.043 |
| predicted_R | 0.080 | 0.002 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.078 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.878 | -0.026 |
| predicted_SO | 0.133 | -0.001 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.842 HR/AB=0.008
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 3.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.028 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.297 |
| predicted_AVG | 1.000 | 0.158 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.042 |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | 0.724 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.021 |
| predicted_OBP | 1.000 | 0.155 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.080 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.078 |
| predicted_SLG | 1.000 | 0.122 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.867 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -3.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 1 | - | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 1 | - | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.60 | 1 | - | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1700 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7130 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2725 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2500 |
| predicted_H | 1.0120 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0310 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1260 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3280 |
| predicted_R | 0.4710 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4560 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4281 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8030 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0000 | 0.1700 | 0.0284 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0150 | 0.0025 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.5000 | 3.7130 | 2.7025 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 1.0000 | 0.2725 | 0.8785 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.2500 | 0.0417 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 2.5000 | 1.0120 | 2.2516 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0310 | 0.0310 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1260 | 0.0210 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 1.0000 | 0.3280 | 0.8878 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.0000 | 0.4710 | 0.0786 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.0000 | 0.4560 | 0.0761 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 1.0000 | 0.4281 | 0.9045 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.8030 | 0.1341 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 1 |
| Season rows before report date | 1 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 1 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 1.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 1.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 1 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260809_MIN@MIL |
| game_type | short |
| mlbID | 678225 |
| playerID | 678225 |
| playerName | Jihwan Bae |
| pos | CF |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-08-09 |
| sl_k_percent | 0.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 0.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.889 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.354 |
| sl_xba | 0.385 |
| sl_xslg | 0.39 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 0.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 0.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 0.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 0.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.148 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.148 | 0.000 | -0.148 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.002 | 0.000 | -0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.861 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.979 | 2.000 | 0.021 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.274 | 0.000 | -0.274 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.370 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.408 | 2.000 | -0.408 | -2.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.021 | 0.000 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.088 | 0.000 | -1.088 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.110 | 0.000 | -0.110 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.342 | 0.500 | -0.342 | -0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.519 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.556 | 1.000 | -0.556 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.420 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.628 | 0.000 | -0.628 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.387 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.395 | 0.000 | -0.395 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.611 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.594 | 0.000 | -0.594 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.8610 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.1390, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8700 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8700, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3870 -> 0.3706 (deboost -0.0164, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3122 -> 0.2965 (deboost -0.0157, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.6185 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3815, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4387 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4387, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.033 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5345 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4655, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2227 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0273, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3648 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1148, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3648 (boost 0.1148, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2227 (deboost -0.0273, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "661388",
"player_name": "William Contreras",
"position": "C",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.148,
"predicted_3B": 0.009,
"predicted_AB": 3.861,
"predicted_AVG": 0.225,
"predicted_BB": 0.37,
"predicted_H": 0.87,
"predicted_HR": 0.13,
"predicted_OBP": 0.316,
"predicted_R": 0.519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.42,
"predicted_SLG": 0.387,
"predicted_SO": 0.611
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1407,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 3.8251,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2201,
"predicted_BB": 0.3977,
"predicted_H": 0.8428,
"predicted_HBP": 0.081,
"predicted_HR": 0.127,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3122,
"predicted_R": 0.5238,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4299,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3706,
"predicted_SO": 0.624
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.148,
"after": 0.1407,
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"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2227,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2965,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3648,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2227,
"delta": -0.0273,
"percent_delta": -0.1091,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2965,
"delta": 0.0465,
"percent_delta": 0.1861,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3648,
"delta": 0.1148,
"percent_delta": 0.4594,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3648,
"delta": 0.1148,
"percent_delta": 0.4594,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2227,
"delta": -0.0273,
"percent_delta": -0.1091,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.148,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.148,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.861,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.139,
"percent_delta": 0.036,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.225,
"after": 0.2227,
"delta": -0.0023,
"percent_delta": -0.0102,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.37,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.87,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.87,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.13,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.316,
"after": 0.2965,
"delta": -0.0195,
"percent_delta": -0.0617,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.519,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.519,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.42,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.387,
"after": 0.3648,
"delta": -0.0222,
"percent_delta": -0.0574,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.611,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.611,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.861,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.139,
"percent_delta": 0.036,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.87,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.87,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.148 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.861 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.370 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.519 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.420 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.387 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.611 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.141 | -0.007 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.825 | -0.036 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.220 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.398 | 0.028 |
| predicted_H | 0.843 | -0.027 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.081 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.127 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.524 | 0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.430 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.371 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 0.624 | 0.013 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.141 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.825 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.401 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.852 | 0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.081 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.129 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | -0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.534 | 0.011 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.439 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.365 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.619 | -0.005 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.033
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.141 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.175 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.027 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.401 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.148 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.129 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.046 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.466 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.439 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.115 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.381 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 0.1111 | 0.2727 | 0.2778 | 0.1111 | 0.0556 | 0.1111 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 0.1622 | 0.2791 | 0.2973 | 0.1622 | 0.0270 | 0.0541 | 0.1351 | 0.1892 |
| season | 0.60 | 108 | - | 417.000 | 109.000 | 16.000 | 1.000 | 11.000 | 58.000 | 56.000 | 40.000 | 66.000 | 0.2614 | 0.3283 | 0.3837 | 0.2614 | 0.0264 | 0.1391 | 0.0959 | 0.1583 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1310 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7780 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2137 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4340 |
| predicted_H | 0.8070 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0810 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1230 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3072 |
| predicted_R | 0.5300 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4430 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3491 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6410 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1480 | 0.1310 | 0.1407 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0060 | 0.0077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8610 | 3.7780 | 3.8251 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2250 | 0.2137 | 0.2201 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3700 | 0.4340 | 0.3977 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8700 | 0.8070 | 0.8428 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0810 | 0.0810 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 | 0.1230 | 0.1270 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3160 | 0.3072 | 0.3122 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5190 | 0.5300 | 0.5238 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4200 | 0.4430 | 0.4299 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3870 | 0.3491 | 0.3706 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6110 | 0.6410 | 0.6240 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 419 |
| Season rows before report date | 419 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 108 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.261 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 2 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260810_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 661388 |
| playerID | 661388 |
| playerName | William Contreras |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.314 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.327 |
| sl_xba | 0.261 |
| sl_xslg | 0.43 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.111 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.106 | 0.000 | -0.106 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.025 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 | -0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.975 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.106 | 3.000 | -0.106 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.251 | 0.000 | 0.082 | 0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.296 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.350 | 0.000 | 0.650 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.067 | 0.000 | -0.067 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.540 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.780 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.051 | 0.000 | -0.051 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.306 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.329 | 0.000 | 0.171 | 0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.432 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.516 | 0.000 | 0.484 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.190 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.232 | 0.000 | -0.232 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.320 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.347 | 0.000 | -0.014 | 0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.790 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.791 | 0.000 | 0.209 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.2960 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7040, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.1900 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1900, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.5400 -> 0.5917 (boost 0.0517, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3242 -> 0.2952 (deboost -0.0290, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.5981 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4019, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3165 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3165, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.010 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4490 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4490, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2015 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1315, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2015 (deboost -0.1315, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "666152",
"player_name": "David Hamilton",
"position": "3B",
"team": "MIL",
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 2,
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"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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{
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},
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{
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{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2015,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2784,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2952,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2015,
"delta": -0.1315,
"percent_delta": -0.3949,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2784,
"delta": -0.0546,
"percent_delta": -0.1639,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2952,
"delta": -0.0378,
"percent_delta": -0.1135,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2015,
"delta": -0.1315,
"percent_delta": -0.3949,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.111,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.111,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.025,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.025,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.975,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.025,
"percent_delta": 0.0084,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.209,
"after": 0.2015,
"delta": -0.0075,
"percent_delta": -0.0359,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.296,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.704,
"percent_delta": 2.3784,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.54,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.46,
"percent_delta": 0.8519,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.03,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.306,
"after": 0.2784,
"delta": -0.0276,
"percent_delta": -0.0902,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.432,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.568,
"percent_delta": 1.3148,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.19,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.2952,
"delta": -0.0248,
"percent_delta": -0.0775,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.79,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.21,
"percent_delta": 0.2658,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.296,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.704,
"percent_delta": 2.3784,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.19,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.111 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.025 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.975 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.296 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.540 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.306 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.432 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.320 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.790 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.146 | 0.035 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 2.969 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.215 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.314 | 0.018 |
| predicted_H | 0.592 | 0.052 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.306 | -0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.440 | 0.008 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.196 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.324 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.832 | 0.042 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.146 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.969 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.202 | -0.014 |
| predicted_BB | 0.317 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.598 | 0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.278 | -0.027 |
| predicted_R | 0.449 | 0.009 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.200 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.295 | -0.029 |
| predicted_SO | 0.824 | -0.007 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.010
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.146 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.031 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.132 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.317 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.402 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.030 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.055 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.449 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.200 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.038 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.176 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 13.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.2308 | 0.3333 | 0.3846 | 0.2308 | 0.0000 | 0.0769 | 0.1538 | 0.4615 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 28.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 0.1786 | 0.2812 | 0.2500 | 0.1786 | 0.0000 | 0.0357 | 0.1429 | 0.2857 |
| season | 0.60 | 81 | - | 241.000 | 56.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 16.000 | 35.000 | 24.000 | 64.000 | 0.2324 | 0.3045 | 0.3237 | 0.2324 | 0.0124 | 0.0664 | 0.0996 | 0.2656 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1940 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0140 |
| predicted_AB | 2.9600 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2240 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3380 |
| predicted_H | 0.6630 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0090 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0300 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3056 |
| predicted_R | 0.4510 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2040 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3300 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8890 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1110 | 0.1940 | 0.1459 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0250 | 0.0140 | 0.0204 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.9750 | 2.9600 | 2.9687 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2090 | 0.2240 | 0.2153 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2960 | 0.3380 | 0.3137 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.5400 | 0.6630 | 0.5917 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0090 | 0.0090 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0300 | 0.0300 | 0.0300 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 | 0.3056 | 0.3058 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4320 | 0.4510 | 0.4400 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1900 | 0.2040 | 0.1959 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3200 | 0.3300 | 0.3242 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7900 | 0.8890 | 0.8316 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 254 |
| Season rows before report date | 254 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 81 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.232 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260810_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 666152 |
| playerID | 666152 |
| playerName | David Hamilton |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.293 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.267 |
| sl_xba | 0.207 |
| sl_xslg | 0.296 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 26.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 28.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.205 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.228 | 0.000 | -0.228 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.032 | 0.000 | -0.032 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.350 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.058 | 3.000 | -0.058 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.239 | 0.333 | 0.011 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.449 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.513 | 0.000 | -0.513 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.003 | 0.000 | -0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.990 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.968 | 1.000 | 0.032 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.087 | 1.000 | 0.913 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.333 | 0.333 | -0.083 | -0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.603 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.676 | 1.000 | 0.324 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.630 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.500 | 2.000 | 0.500 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.406 | 1.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.374 | 1.333 | 0.626 | -0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 1.205 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.272 | 1.000 | -0.272 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_HR: 0.1500 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8500, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.4490 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4490, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_AB: 4.3500 -> 4.1090 (deboost -0.2410, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3032 -> 0.2976 (deboost -0.0056, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 5 | predicted_RBI: 0.5750 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4250, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3893 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3893, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.032 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6118 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3882, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2311 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0189, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3919 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1419, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3919 (boost 0.1419, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2311 (deboost -0.0189, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "592885",
"player_name": "Christian Yelich",
"position": "DH",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.026,
"predicted_AB": 4.35,
"predicted_AVG": 0.228,
"predicted_BB": 0.449,
"predicted_H": 0.99,
"predicted_HR": 0.15,
"predicted_OBP": 0.305,
"predicted_R": 0.603,
"predicted_RBI": 0.63,
"predicted_SLG": 0.406,
"predicted_SO": 1.205
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1956,
"predicted_3B": 0.0213,
"predicted_AB": 4.109,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2289,
"predicted_BB": 0.3859,
"predicted_H": 0.9392,
"predicted_HBP": 0.088,
"predicted_HR": 0.1385,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3032,
"predicted_R": 0.5996,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5635,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3967,
"predicted_SO": 1.2012
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"delta": -0.0094,
"percent_delta": -0.0459,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": -0.0047,
"percent_delta": -0.1808,
"direction": "no_change",
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{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": -0.241,
"percent_delta": -0.0554,
"direction": "deboost",
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{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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{
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"percent_delta": -0.1405,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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"after": 0.9392,
"delta": -0.0508,
"percent_delta": -0.0513,
"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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{
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{
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"delta": -0.0034,
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
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"delta": -0.0665,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"percent_delta": -0.0229,
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0038,
"percent_delta": -0.0032,
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"summary": {
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},
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 78
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0213,
"predicted_AB": 4.109,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2311,
"predicted_BB": 0.3893,
"predicted_H": 0.9494,
"predicted_HBP": 0.088,
"predicted_HR": 0.1409,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2976,
"predicted_R": 0.6118,
"predicted_RBI": 0.575,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3919,
"predicted_SO": 1.1906
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{
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{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2311,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": 0.0189,
"percent_delta": 0.0818,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2976,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.0476,
"percent_delta": -0.1599,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3919,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.1419,
"percent_delta": -0.3621,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -0.1419,
"percent_delta": -0.3621,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2311,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2976,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3919,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2311,
"delta": -0.0189,
"percent_delta": -0.0757,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2976,
"delta": 0.0476,
"percent_delta": 0.1904,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3919,
"delta": 0.1419,
"percent_delta": 0.5675,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3919,
"delta": 0.1419,
"percent_delta": 0.5675,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2311,
"delta": -0.0189,
"percent_delta": -0.0757,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.205,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.205,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.026,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.35,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.35,
"percent_delta": -0.0805,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.228,
"after": 0.2311,
"delta": 0.0031,
"percent_delta": 0.0136,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.449,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.449,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.99,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.0101,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.15,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.85,
"percent_delta": 5.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.2976,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.0243,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.603,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.397,
"percent_delta": 0.6584,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.63,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.37,
"percent_delta": 0.5873,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.406,
"after": 0.3919,
"delta": -0.0141,
"percent_delta": -0.0347,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.205,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.205,
"percent_delta": -0.1701,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.15,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.85,
"percent_delta": 5.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.449,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.449,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.205 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.350 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.449 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.990 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.603 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.630 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.406 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.205 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.196 | -0.009 |
| predicted_3B | 0.021 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.109 | -0.241 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.386 | -0.063 |
| predicted_H | 0.939 | -0.051 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.088 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.139 | -0.011 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.600 | -0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.564 | -0.067 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.397 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 1.201 | -0.004 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.196 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.109 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.231 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.389 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.949 | 0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.088 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.141 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.298 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.612 | 0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.575 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.392 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 1.191 | -0.011 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.032
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.196 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.021 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.109 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.019 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.389 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.051 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.141 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.048 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.388 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.425 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.142 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.191 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 0.2778 | 0.3158 | 0.5000 | 0.2778 | 0.0556 | 0.1667 | 0.0000 | 0.3889 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 0.1892 | 0.2500 | 0.2973 | 0.1892 | 0.0270 | 0.0811 | 0.0541 | 0.2973 |
| season | 0.60 | 78 | - | 302.000 | 68.000 | 16.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 38.000 | 47.000 | 35.000 | 94.000 | 0.2252 | 0.3120 | 0.3709 | 0.2252 | 0.0265 | 0.1258 | 0.1159 | 0.3113 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1830 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7850 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2301 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3010 |
| predicted_H | 0.8710 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0880 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1230 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3008 |
| predicted_R | 0.5950 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4740 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3842 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1960 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2050 | 0.1830 | 0.1956 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0260 | 0.0150 | 0.0213 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.3500 | 3.7850 | 4.1090 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2280 | 0.2301 | 0.2289 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4490 | 0.3010 | 0.3859 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9900 | 0.8710 | 0.9392 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0880 | 0.0880 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1500 | 0.1230 | 0.1385 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3050 | 0.3008 | 0.3032 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6030 | 0.5950 | 0.5996 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6300 | 0.4740 | 0.5635 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4060 | 0.3842 | 0.3967 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.2050 | 1.1960 | 1.2012 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 312 |
| Season rows before report date | 312 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 78 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.225 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260810_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 592885 |
| playerID | 592885 |
| playerName | Christian Yelich |
| pos | DH |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.302 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.3 |
| sl_xba | 0.221 |
| sl_xslg | 0.37 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 2.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.167 | 1.000 | 0.833 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_ER | 1.556 | 0.000 | 1.444 | 3.000 |
| predicted_H | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_H | 3.944 | 1.000 | 1.056 | 4.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.200 | 5.200 | 5.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 4.822 | 5.000 | 0.378 | 0.200 |
| predicted_SO | 7.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | Pitching_SO | 6.167 | 10.000 | 0.833 | -3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 5.6667 -> 5.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | pitcher_quality_guardrail | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - | predicted_HR: 2.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | predicted_HR: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "690986",
"player_name": "Kyle Harrison",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 5.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.6667,
"predicted_SO": 7.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
"description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 5.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_SO": 7.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 5.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 7.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.2,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 7.000 | - |
Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.200 | -0.467 |
| predicted_SO | 7.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 23.000 | 10.000 | 17.000 | 3.000 | 31.000 | 3.000 | 3.9130 | 0.8696 | 0.4348 | 0.7391 | 0.1304 | 1.3478 | 0.1304 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 50.000 | 19.000 | 38.000 | 8.000 | 63.000 | 7.000 | 3.4200 | 0.9200 | 0.3800 | 0.7600 | 0.1600 | 1.2600 | 0.1400 |
| season | 0.20 | 18 | 88.200 | 28.000 | 71.000 | 21.000 | 111.000 | 10.000 | 2.8421 | 1.0376 | 0.3158 | 0.8007 | 0.2368 | 1.2519 | 0.1128 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0310 |
| predicted_ER | 2.0860 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.7351 |
| predicted_H | 4.0490 |
| predicted_HR | 0.6750 |
| predicted_IP | 5.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 6.1540 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0104 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0000 | 1.0310 | 1.4592 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 3.0000 | 2.0860 | 2.4899 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.7351 | 3.7351 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 5.0000 | 4.0490 | 4.4692 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 2.0000 | 0.6750 | 1.2605 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 | 5.0000 | 5.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 7.0000 | 6.1540 | 6.5278 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0104 | 1.0104 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 18 |
| Season rows before report date | 18 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 18 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.2 |
| H | 5 |
| R | 3 |
| ER | 3 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 7 |
| HR | 2 |
| BF | 24 |
| Pitches | 94 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 16 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.84 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 4 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 69 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 10 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 50 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | W |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260805_PIT@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 690986 |
| playerID | 690986 |
| playerName | Kyle Harrison |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-08-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.275 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.27 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.5 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 79.125412294 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.913613716 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.600 | 1.000 | -0.600 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.473 | 0.000 | -0.473 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 1.091 | 1.000 | -0.091 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.084 | 1.000 | -0.084 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.709 | 3.000 | -0.709 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "676879",
"player_name": "Aaron Ashby",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.100 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 12.000 | 0.000 | 6.7500 | 1.6875 | 0.7500 | 1.1250 | 0.5625 | 2.2500 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.000 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 4.000 | 19.000 | 0.000 | 3.6000 | 1.3000 | 0.4000 | 0.9000 | 0.4000 | 1.9000 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 55 | 65.200 | 26.000 | 60.000 | 33.000 | 94.000 | 5.000 | 3.5635 | 1.4162 | 0.3959 | 0.9137 | 0.5025 | 1.4315 | 0.0761 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4790 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5670 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.8659 |
| predicted_H | 1.0430 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0540 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.7680 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4522 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4790 | 0.2556 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.5670 | 0.3025 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.8659 | 4.8659 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 1.0430 | 1.0229 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0540 | 0.0288 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.7680 | 1.4097 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4522 | 1.4522 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 55 |
| Season rows before report date | 55 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 55 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 19 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 6 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.56 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 27 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 3 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 16 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260809_MIN@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 676879 |
| playerID | 676879 |
| playerName | Aaron Ashby |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-08-09 |
| sl_k_percent | 32.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.297 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.268 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 32.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 74.93181075 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.331807188 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.367 | 2.000 | 0.633 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.224 | 0.000 | -0.224 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.653 | 0.000 | -0.653 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.910 | 1.000 | 0.190 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.980 | 0.000 | 0.020 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "682842",
"player_name": "Abner Uribe",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
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"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.8000 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.6000 | 1.2000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.200 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 3.000 | 13.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 1.0345 | 0.0000 | 0.7241 | 0.3103 | 1.3448 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 49 | 48.100 | 11.000 | 32.000 | 18.000 | 48.000 | 3.000 | 2.0483 | 1.0345 | 0.2276 | 0.6621 | 0.3724 | 0.9931 | 0.0621 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4210 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2000 |
| predicted_ERA | 1.7996 |
| predicted_H | 0.6450 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0590 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1240 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0667 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.4210 | 0.7070 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.1012 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 1.7996 | 1.7996 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.6450 | 0.3264 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0590 | 0.0299 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.1240 | 1.0627 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0667 | 1.0667 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 49 |
| Season rows before report date | 49 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 49 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 18 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 2 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 6 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.05 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 3 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 33 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 16 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260809_MIN@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 682842 |
| playerID | 682842 |
| playerName | Abner Uribe |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-08-09 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.238 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.26 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 25.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 1.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 31.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 26.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.4 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 76.142747541 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.09525314 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.234 | 0.000 | -0.234 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.277 | 0.000 | -0.277 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.596 | 0.000 | -0.596 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.960 | 1.000 | 0.040 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.128 | 2.000 | -1.128 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "656730",
"player_name": "Trevor Megill",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "MIL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.6000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.100 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.9643 | 0.4286 | 0.1071 | 0.3214 | 0.1071 | 0.7500 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 46 | 45.100 | 9.000 | 26.000 | 11.000 | 53.000 | 0.000 | 1.7868 | 0.8162 | 0.1985 | 0.5735 | 0.2427 | 1.1691 | 0.0000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.1830 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2270 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.0429 |
| predicted_H | 0.4920 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0530 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8350 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.6757 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.1830 | 0.0915 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2270 | 0.1135 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.0429 | 2.0429 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.4920 | 0.2459 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0530 | 0.0265 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.8350 | 0.4173 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.6757 | 0.6757 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 47 |
| Season rows before report date | 47 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 46 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 13 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.58 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 13 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 9 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260809_MIN@MIL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 656730 |
| playerID | 656730 |
| playerName | Trevor Megill |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | MIL |
| teamID | 16 |
| game_date | 2026-08-09 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.202 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.253 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 81.895700185 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.428193981 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Walker Buehler |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.2674 |
| ESPN Rank | 325 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0319 |
| Avg Velo | 89.3426 |
| Avg Spin | 2213.2312 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 4.2000 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 5 |
| Pre BB | 4 |
| Pre SO | 6 |
| Season ERA | 5.0677 |
| Season WHIP | 1.4585 |
| Role Avg IP | 4.7100 |
| Recent Avg IP | 4.2670 |
| Last Start IP | 4 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 126,
"wins": 65,
"losses": 61,
"win_pct": 0.5159,
"runs_scored": 538.0,
"runs_allowed": 555.0,
"run_differential": -17.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1349,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2698,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4048,
"offense_index": 0.9506,
"defense_index": 1.0197,
"current_streak": "W3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
"run_differential": 5.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.067
},
"opponent": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 130,
"wins": 78,
"losses": 52,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"runs_scored": 630.0,
"runs_allowed": 485.0,
"run_differential": 145.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1154,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8462,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7308,
"offense_index": 1.0789,
"defense_index": 1.2039,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
"run_differential": 4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2566
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.1896,
"offense_edge": -0.0494,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0789,
"defense_strength": 0.0197,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2039,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9899,
"run_prevention": 1.0201,
"strikeout": 0.988
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "621111",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621111",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 410.0,
"k_percent": 20.1,
"bb_percent": 9.5,
"woba": 0.339,
"xwoba": 0.323,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.7,
"avg_best_speed": 79.5043,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.3074,
"whiff_percent": 20.8,
"swing_percent": 44.5
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.3688,
"command_and_miss": -0.4,
"regression_edge": 0.4571,
"xwoba_edge": -0.3429,
"barrel_edge": -0.3111,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.4286,
"whiff_edge": -0.6714,
"bb_edge": -0.15,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0319
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621111",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 82,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.34259352374748,
"release_spin_rate": 2213.231206656701,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.34259352374748,
"release_spin_rate": 2213.231206656701,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.3426,
"release_spin_rate": 2213.2312,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0319,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.2277,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.2674,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0227,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9611,
"walk_factor": 1.012,
"homer_factor": 1.0523,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.016,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "621111",
"espn_id": 39251,
"player_name": "Walker Buehler",
"team": "SD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 325,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 325,
"gp_value": 23.0,
"gp_rank": 258,
"gs_value": 23.0,
"gs_rank": 20,
"qs_value": 3.0,
"qs_rank": 124,
"era_value": 5.0676,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 6.0,
"w_rank": 76,
"l_value": 5.0,
"l_rank": 108,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 108.1,
"ip_rank": 80,
"h_value": 113.0,
"h_rank": 49,
"er_value": 61.0,
"er_rank": 23,
"hr_value": 14.0,
"hr_rank": 67,
"bb_value": 45.0,
"bb_rank": 26,
"k_value": 95.0,
"k_rank": 80,
"k_per_9_value": 7.8923078,
"k_per_9_rank": 27,
"whip_value": 1.4584,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.19,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0227,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 1.0227,
"adjusted": 5
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.012,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0523,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 0.9611,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 46.0,
"ER": 31,
"H": 51,
"BB": 23,
"SO": 42,
"HR": 10,
"ERA": 6.065217391304348,
"WHIP": 1.608695652173913,
"K9": 8.217391304347826,
"HR9": 1.9565217391304348,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 1,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-06T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621111",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 82,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.34259352374748,
"release_spin_rate": 2213.231206656701,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.34259352374748,
"release_spin_rate": 2213.231206656701,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.3426,
"release_spin_rate": 2213.2312,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0319,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.2277,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 23.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8214,
"prior_weight": 0.1786
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "621111",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 23,
"reference_playing_time": 4.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 21.1,
"ER": 12.0,
"R": 13.0,
"H": 23.0,
"BB": 14.0,
"SO": 15.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 98.0,
"Pitches": 402.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 2.4,
"R": 2.6,
"H": 4.6,
"BB": 2.8,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 0.6,
"BF": 19.6,
"Pitches": 80.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.0625,
"WHIP": 1.7344,
"ER_per_IP": 0.5625,
"H_per_IP": 1.07812,
"BB_per_IP": 0.65625,
"SO_per_IP": 0.70312,
"HR_per_IP": 0.14062
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 46.0,
"ER": 31.0,
"R": 32.0,
"H": 51.0,
"BB": 23.0,
"SO": 42.0,
"HR": 10.0,
"BF": 207.0,
"Pitches": 827.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 4.2,
"ER": 3.1,
"R": 3.2,
"H": 5.1,
"BB": 2.3,
"SO": 4.2,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 20.7,
"Pitches": 82.7
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 6.0652,
"WHIP": 1.6087,
"ER_per_IP": 0.67391,
"H_per_IP": 1.1087,
"BB_per_IP": 0.5,
"SO_per_IP": 0.91304,
"HR_per_IP": 0.21739
}
},
"season": {
"games": 23,
"totals": {
"IP": 108.1,
"ER": 61.0,
"R": 62.0,
"H": 113.0,
"BB": 45.0,
"SO": 95.0,
"HR": 14.0,
"BF": 473.0,
"Pitches": 1877.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 4.2,
"ER": 2.6522,
"R": 2.6957,
"H": 4.913,
"BB": 1.9565,
"SO": 4.1304,
"HR": 0.6087,
"BF": 20.5652,
"Pitches": 81.6087
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.0677,
"WHIP": 1.4585,
"ER_per_IP": 0.56308,
"H_per_IP": 1.04308,
"BB_per_IP": 0.41538,
"SO_per_IP": 0.87692,
"HR_per_IP": 0.12923
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 4.1,
"predicted_ER": 2.615,
"predicted_H": 4.763,
"predicted_BB": 2.327,
"predicted_SO": 3.756,
"predicted_HR": 0.727,
"predicted_ERA": 5.2488,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.5812
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4255,
"form_weight": 0.5745,
"form_reliability": 0.8214,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 23.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8214,
"prior_weight": 0.1786
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 4.1,
"form": 4.1,
"final": 4.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 2.615,
"final": 2.3533,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 4.763,
"final": 4.8638,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 4.0,
"form": 2.327,
"final": 3.0388,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 6.0,
"form": 3.756,
"final": 4.7107,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.727,
"final": 0.4177,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 5.2488,
"final": 5.2488,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.5812,
"final": 1.5812,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Adrian Morejon |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.9557 |
| ESPN Rank | 121 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 2.8421 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0579 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 126,
"wins": 65,
"losses": 61,
"win_pct": 0.5159,
"runs_scored": 538.0,
"runs_allowed": 555.0,
"run_differential": -17.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1349,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2698,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4048,
"offense_index": 0.9506,
"defense_index": 1.0197,
"current_streak": "W3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
"run_differential": 5.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.067
},
"opponent": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 130,
"wins": 78,
"losses": 52,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"runs_scored": 630.0,
"runs_allowed": 485.0,
"run_differential": 145.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1154,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8462,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7308,
"offense_index": 1.0789,
"defense_index": 1.2039,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
"run_differential": 4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2566
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.1896,
"offense_edge": -0.0494,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0789,
"defense_strength": 0.0197,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2039,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9899,
"run_prevention": 1.0201,
"strikeout": 0.988
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "670970",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "670970",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 216.0,
"k_percent": 29.3,
"bb_percent": 6.3,
"woba": 0.246,
"xwoba": 0.243,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 1.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.3,
"avg_best_speed": 74.715,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.2938,
"whiff_percent": 34.5,
"swing_percent": 51.8
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.4788,
"command_and_miss": 1.0364,
"regression_edge": 0.0857,
"xwoba_edge": 1.9429,
"barrel_edge": 1.1556,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7714,
"whiff_edge": 1.2857,
"bb_edge": 0.65,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "670970",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.9557,
"sample_weight": 0.864,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9188,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0795,
"walk_factor": 0.9551,
"homer_factor": 0.8431,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.003,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "670970",
"espn_id": 40917,
"player_name": "Adrian Morejon",
"team": "SD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 121,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 121,
"gp_value": 55.0,
"gp_rank": 8,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 2.8421,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 8.0,
"w_rank": 35,
"l_value": 2.0,
"l_rank": 279,
"sv_value": 2.0,
"sv_rank": 75,
"hld_value": 19.0,
"hld_rank": 11,
"ip_value": 63.1,
"ip_rank": 164,
"h_value": 51.0,
"h_rank": 186,
"er_value": 20.0,
"er_rank": 263,
"hr_value": 3.0,
"hr_rank": 387,
"bb_value": 16.0,
"bb_rank": 299,
"k_value": 76.0,
"k_rank": 121,
"k_per_9_value": 10.8,
"k_per_9_rank": 19,
"whip_value": 1.0578,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 1.27,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9298,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9298,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9612,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.8644,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 1.0687,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 11.1,
"ER": 0,
"H": 6,
"BB": 3,
"SO": 17,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 0.7941176470588236,
"K9": 13.500000000000002,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "670970",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 12.666,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.717,
"prior_weight": 0.283
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "670970",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 55,
"reference_playing_time": 1.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 6.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 2.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 12.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 22.0,
"Pitches": 85.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.4,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 2.4,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.4,
"Pitches": 17.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 0.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.33333,
"BB_per_IP": 0.16667,
"SO_per_IP": 2.0,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 11.1,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 17.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 46.0,
"Pitches": 180.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.1,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.3,
"SO": 1.7,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.6,
"Pitches": 18.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 0.7941,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.52941,
"BB_per_IP": 0.26471,
"SO_per_IP": 1.5,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 55,
"totals": {
"IP": 63.1,
"ER": 20.0,
"R": 23.0,
"H": 51.0,
"BB": 16.0,
"SO": 76.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 259.0,
"Pitches": 993.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.3636,
"R": 0.4182,
"H": 0.9273,
"BB": 0.2909,
"SO": 1.3818,
"HR": 0.0545,
"BF": 4.7091,
"Pitches": 18.0545
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.8421,
"WHIP": 1.0579,
"ER_per_IP": 0.31579,
"H_per_IP": 0.80526,
"BB_per_IP": 0.25263,
"SO_per_IP": 1.2,
"HR_per_IP": 0.04737
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.224,
"predicted_H": 0.759,
"predicted_BB": 0.311,
"predicted_SO": 1.761,
"predicted_HR": 0.059,
"predicted_ERA": 1.6773,
"predicted_WHIP": 0.8895
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4696,
"form_weight": 0.5304,
"form_reliability": 0.717,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 12.666,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.717,
"prior_weight": 0.283
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.1,
"form": 1.1,
"final": 1.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.224,
"final": 0.5884,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.759,
"final": 1.3417,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.311,
"final": 0.165,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.761,
"final": 0.9341,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.059,
"final": 0.5009,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.6773,
"final": 1.6773,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 0.8895,
"final": 0.8895,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jeremiah Estrada |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.2242 |
| ESPN Rank | 262 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1.2000 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 3.4177 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1392 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 126,
"wins": 65,
"losses": 61,
"win_pct": 0.5159,
"runs_scored": 538.0,
"runs_allowed": 555.0,
"run_differential": -17.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1349,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2698,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4048,
"offense_index": 0.9506,
"defense_index": 1.0197,
"current_streak": "W3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
"run_differential": 5.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.067
},
"opponent": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 130,
"wins": 78,
"losses": 52,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"runs_scored": 630.0,
"runs_allowed": 485.0,
"run_differential": 145.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1154,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8462,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7308,
"offense_index": 1.0789,
"defense_index": 1.2039,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
"run_differential": 4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2566
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.1896,
"offense_edge": -0.0494,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0789,
"defense_strength": 0.0197,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2039,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9899,
"run_prevention": 1.0201,
"strikeout": 0.988
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "669093",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "669093",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 79.0,
"k_percent": 31.4,
"bb_percent": 13.3,
"woba": 0.26,
"xwoba": 0.286,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
"avg_best_speed": 72.9497,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.9218,
"whiff_percent": 34.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.648,
"command_and_miss": 0.8064,
"regression_edge": -0.7429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.7143,
"barrel_edge": 0.0444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4571,
"whiff_edge": 1.2429,
"bb_edge": -1.1,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "669093",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.2242,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9809,
"strikeout_factor": 1.046,
"walk_factor": 1.0396,
"homer_factor": 0.9805,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.026,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "669093",
"espn_id": 41014,
"player_name": "Jeremiah Estrada",
"team": "SD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 262,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 262,
"gp_value": 28.0,
"gp_rank": 199,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 3.4177,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 2.0,
"w_rank": 281,
"l_value": 2.0,
"l_rank": 279,
"sv_value": 1.0,
"sv_rank": 115,
"hld_value": 10.0,
"hld_rank": 59,
"ip_value": 26.1,
"ip_rank": 420,
"h_value": 16.0,
"h_rank": 507,
"er_value": 10.0,
"er_rank": 470,
"hr_value": 2.0,
"hr_rank": 465,
"bb_value": 14.0,
"bb_rank": 341,
"k_value": 33.0,
"k_rank": 345,
"k_per_9_value": 11.278481,
"k_per_9_rank": 22,
"whip_value": 1.1392,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.38,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9914,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9914,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 1.0178,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.9912,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0207,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 4,
"H": 6,
"BB": 6,
"SO": 13,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 4.32,
"WHIP": 1.4400000000000002,
"K9": 14.040000000000003,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-09T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "669093",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 5.266,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.513,
"prior_weight": 0.487
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "669093",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 28,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 6.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 15.0,
"Pitches": 61.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.2,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.2,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.0,
"Pitches": 12.2
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.6923,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.23077,
"BB_per_IP": 0.46154,
"SO_per_IP": 1.38462,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 8.1,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 4.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 13.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 35.0,
"Pitches": 151.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 1.3,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.5,
"Pitches": 15.1
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.32,
"WHIP": 1.44,
"ER_per_IP": 0.48,
"H_per_IP": 0.72,
"BB_per_IP": 0.72,
"SO_per_IP": 1.56,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 28,
"totals": {
"IP": 26.1,
"ER": 10.0,
"R": 12.0,
"H": 16.0,
"BB": 14.0,
"SO": 33.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 105.0,
"Pitches": 420.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.3571,
"R": 0.4286,
"H": 0.5714,
"BB": 0.5,
"SO": 1.1786,
"HR": 0.0714,
"BF": 3.75,
"Pitches": 15.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.4177,
"WHIP": 1.1392,
"ER_per_IP": 0.37975,
"H_per_IP": 0.60759,
"BB_per_IP": 0.53165,
"SO_per_IP": 1.25316,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07595
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.346,
"predicted_H": 0.676,
"predicted_BB": 0.438,
"predicted_SO": 1.124,
"predicted_HR": 0.075,
"predicted_ERA": 3.3114,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.1844
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5558,
"form_weight": 0.4442,
"form_reliability": 0.513,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 5.266,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.513,
"prior_weight": 0.487
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.346,
"final": 0.7095,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.676,
"final": 0.8561,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.438,
"final": 0.1946,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.124,
"final": 1.0551,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.075,
"final": 0.5891,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.3114,
"final": 3.3114,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.1844,
"final": 1.1844,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Mason Miller |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.9785 |
| ESPN Rank | 24 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 0.8940 |
| Season WHIP | 0.8146 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 126,
"wins": 65,
"losses": 61,
"win_pct": 0.5159,
"runs_scored": 538.0,
"runs_allowed": 555.0,
"run_differential": -17.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1349,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2698,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4048,
"offense_index": 0.9506,
"defense_index": 1.0197,
"current_streak": "W3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
"run_differential": 5.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.067
},
"opponent": {
"team": "MIL",
"games": 130,
"wins": 78,
"losses": 52,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"runs_scored": 630.0,
"runs_allowed": 485.0,
"run_differential": 145.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1154,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8462,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7308,
"offense_index": 1.0789,
"defense_index": 1.2039,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
"run_differential": 4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2566
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.1896,
"offense_edge": -0.0494,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0789,
"defense_strength": 0.0197,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2039,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9899,
"run_prevention": 1.0201,
"strikeout": 0.988
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "695243",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "695243",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 159.0,
"k_percent": 48.4,
"bb_percent": 8.5,
"woba": 0.182,
"xwoba": 0.183,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 26.6,
"avg_best_speed": 74.0247,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.2185,
"whiff_percent": 47.1,
"swing_percent": 48.2
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.8146,
"command_and_miss": 2.02,
"regression_edge": -0.0286,
"xwoba_edge": 2.5,
"barrel_edge": 0.7333,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.5857,
"whiff_edge": 2.5,
"bb_edge": 0.1,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "695243",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.9785,
"sample_weight": 0.636,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9168,
"strikeout_factor": 1.1272,
"walk_factor": 0.9949,
"homer_factor": 0.8746,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "695243",
"espn_id": 4730225,
"player_name": "Mason Miller",
"team": "SD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 24,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 24,
"gp_value": 48.0,
"gp_rank": 52,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 0.894,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 4.0,
"w_rank": 147,
"l_value": 1.0,
"l_rank": 381,
"sv_value": 30.0,
"sv_rank": 2,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 50.1,
"ip_rank": 226,
"h_value": 24.0,
"h_rank": 421,
"er_value": 5.0,
"er_rank": 596,
"hr_value": 0.0,
"hr_rank": 690,
"bb_value": 17.0,
"bb_rank": 279,
"k_value": 92.0,
"k_rank": 88,
"k_per_9_value": 16.45033,
"k_per_9_rank": 10,
"whip_value": 0.8145,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 2.92,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9471,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9471,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9968,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9202,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 1.0809,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.2,
"ER": 1,
"H": 6,
"BB": 4,
"SO": 20,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 0.8437499999999999,
"WHIP": 0.9374999999999999,
"K9": 16.874999999999996,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "695243",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.066,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6681,
"prior_weight": 0.3319
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "695243",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 48,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 3.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 22.0,
"Pitches": 103.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.8,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.4,
"Pitches": 20.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.5882,
"WHIP": 0.8824,
"ER_per_IP": 0.17647,
"H_per_IP": 0.52941,
"BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
"SO_per_IP": 1.58824,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 10.2,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 20.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 42.0,
"Pitches": 177.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.1,
"R": 0.1,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 2.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.2,
"Pitches": 17.7
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.8438,
"WHIP": 0.9375,
"ER_per_IP": 0.09375,
"H_per_IP": 0.5625,
"BB_per_IP": 0.375,
"SO_per_IP": 1.875,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 48,
"totals": {
"IP": 50.1,
"ER": 5.0,
"R": 7.0,
"H": 24.0,
"BB": 17.0,
"SO": 92.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 191.0,
"Pitches": 811.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.1042,
"R": 0.1458,
"H": 0.5,
"BB": 0.3542,
"SO": 1.9167,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.9792,
"Pitches": 16.8958
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.894,
"WHIP": 0.8146,
"ER_per_IP": 0.09934,
"H_per_IP": 0.47682,
"BB_per_IP": 0.33775,
"SO_per_IP": 1.82781,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.254,
"predicted_H": 0.677,
"predicted_BB": 0.358,
"predicted_SO": 1.478,
"predicted_HR": 0.049,
"predicted_ERA": 2.2834,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.0358
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4902,
"form_weight": 0.5098,
"form_reliability": 0.6681,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.066,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6681,
"prior_weight": 0.3319
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.254,
"final": 0.1295,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.677,
"final": 0.3451,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.358,
"final": 0.1825,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.478,
"final": 0.7534,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.049,
"final": 0.025,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.2834,
"final": 2.2834,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.0358,
"final": 1.0358,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.139 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.049 | 0.000 | -0.049 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.304 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.756 | 2.000 | -0.756 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.238 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.364 | 0.000 | -0.364 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.380 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.463 | 1.000 | 0.537 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.024 | 0.000 | -0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.785 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.366 | 0.000 | -1.366 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.025 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.146 | 0.000 | -0.146 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.440 | 0.333 | -0.190 | -0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.405 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.878 | 0.000 | -0.878 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.342 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.659 | 0.000 | -0.659 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.303 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.494 | 0.000 | -0.494 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.481 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.878 | 1.000 | -0.878 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.3800 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6200, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.7850 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7850, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3160 -> 0.3234 (boost 0.0074, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3234 -> 0.3134 (deboost -0.0100, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.7878 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2122, better) | predicted_SO: 0.5009 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5009, better) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.007 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3756 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3756, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2360 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0970, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2360 (deboost -0.0970, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "650859",
"player_name": "Luis Rengifo",
"position": "DH",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.236,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3134,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2936,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.236,
"delta": -0.097,
"percent_delta": -0.2913,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3134,
"delta": -0.0196,
"percent_delta": -0.0589,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2936,
"delta": -0.0394,
"percent_delta": -0.1184,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.236,
"delta": -0.097,
"percent_delta": -0.2913,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.139,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.139,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.304,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.304,
"percent_delta": -0.092,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.238,
"after": 0.236,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -0.0084,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.62,
"percent_delta": 1.6316,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.785,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.785,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.025,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.025,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.316,
"after": 0.3134,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.0082,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.405,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.405,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.342,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.342,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.303,
"after": 0.2936,
"delta": -0.0094,
"percent_delta": -0.031,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.481,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.481,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.62,
"percent_delta": 1.6316,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.785,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.785,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.139 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.304 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.238 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.380 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.785 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.025 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.405 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.342 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.303 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.481 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.119 | -0.020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.338 | 0.034 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.242 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.379 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.809 | 0.024 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.060 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.323 | 0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.392 | -0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.295 | -0.047 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.301 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.497 | 0.016 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.338 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.376 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.788 | -0.021 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.060 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.024 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.313 | -0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.376 | -0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.282 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.294 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.501 | 0.004 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.007
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.338 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.097 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.376 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.212 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.024 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.020 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.376 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.282 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.039 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.501 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.2941 | 0.3684 | 0.2941 | 0.2941 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1177 | 0.1177 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 0.2353 | 0.3500 | 0.2353 | 0.2353 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1177 | 0.1765 |
| season | 0.60 | 79 | - | 261.000 | 62.000 | 11.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 27.000 | 32.000 | 30.000 | 38.000 | 0.2375 | 0.3209 | 0.3027 | 0.2376 | 0.0077 | 0.1035 | 0.1149 | 0.1456 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0920 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3850 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2484 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3780 |
| predicted_H | 0.8410 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0600 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0250 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3334 |
| predicted_R | 0.3750 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2300 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2987 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5190 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1390 | 0.0920 | 0.1191 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3040 | 3.3850 | 3.3383 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2380 | 0.2484 | 0.2424 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3800 | 0.3780 | 0.3792 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7850 | 0.8410 | 0.8087 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0600 | 0.0600 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0250 | 0.0250 | 0.0250 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3160 | 0.3334 | 0.3234 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4050 | 0.3750 | 0.3923 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3420 | 0.2300 | 0.2946 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3030 | 0.2987 | 0.3012 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.4810 | 0.5190 | 0.4971 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 41 |
| Season rows before report date | 41 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 79 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.238 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260810_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 650859 |
| playerID | 650859 |
| playerName | Luis Rengifo |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 12.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.285 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.312 |
| sl_xba | 0.261 |
| sl_xslg | 0.353 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 4.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.170 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.186 | 0.000 | -0.186 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.021 | 0.000 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.364 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.519 | 3.000 | 0.481 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.284 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.286 | 0.667 | -0.036 | -0.417 |
| predicted_BB | 0.193 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.200 | 0.000 | -0.200 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.011 | 0.000 | -0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.940 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.007 | 2.000 | -0.007 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.242 | 1.000 | 0.758 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.337 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.341 | 0.667 | -0.091 | -0.417 |
| predicted_R | 0.466 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.481 | 2.000 | 0.519 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.660 | 1.000 | 1.340 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.500 | 1.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.557 | 1.667 | 0.443 | -0.667 |
| predicted_SO | 0.841 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.884 | 0.000 | 0.116 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.4400 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.5600, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.1930 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1930, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.5000 -> 0.5127 (boost 0.0127, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3429 -> 0.3246 (deboost -0.0183, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.8174 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1826, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4339 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4339, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.053 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4592 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4592, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2804 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0526, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.5072 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.1742, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.5072 (boost 0.1742, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2804 (deboost -0.0526, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "664034",
"player_name": "Ty France",
"position": "1B",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"predicted_AVG": 0.284,
"predicted_BB": 0.193,
"predicted_H": 0.94,
"predicted_HR": 0.19,
"predicted_OBP": 0.337,
"predicted_R": 0.466,
"predicted_RBI": 0.44,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5,
"predicted_SO": 0.841
},
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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"predicted_HBP": 0.059,
"predicted_HR": 0.1836,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.4532,
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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}
},
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}
},
{
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"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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{
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{
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"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2804,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3246,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5072,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2804,
"delta": -0.0526,
"percent_delta": -0.1579,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3246,
"delta": -0.0084,
"percent_delta": -0.0253,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.5072,
"delta": 0.1742,
"percent_delta": 0.5232,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.5072,
"delta": 0.1742,
"percent_delta": 0.5232,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2804,
"delta": -0.0526,
"percent_delta": -0.1579,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.17,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.023,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.023,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.364,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.636,
"percent_delta": 0.1891,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.284,
"after": 0.2804,
"delta": -0.0036,
"percent_delta": -0.0127,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.193,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.193,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.94,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.06,
"percent_delta": 0.0638,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.81,
"percent_delta": 4.2632,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.337,
"after": 0.3246,
"delta": -0.0124,
"percent_delta": -0.0368,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.466,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.534,
"percent_delta": 1.1459,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.44,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.56,
"percent_delta": 3.5455,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 0.5072,
"delta": 0.0072,
"percent_delta": 0.0144,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.841,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.159,
"percent_delta": 0.1891,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 7,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.44,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.56,
"percent_delta": 3.5455,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.193,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.193,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.364 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.284 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.193 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.940 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.337 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.466 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.500 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.841 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.193 | 0.023 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 3.362 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.290 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.222 | 0.028 |
| predicted_H | 0.968 | 0.028 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.059 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.184 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.343 | 0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.480 | 0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.453 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.513 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.811 | -0.030 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.193 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.362 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.280 | -0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.220 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.943 | -0.025 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.059 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.177 | -0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | -0.018 |
| predicted_R | 0.459 | -0.020 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.434 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.507 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.817 | 0.006 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.053
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.193 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.362 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.053 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.220 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.057 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.177 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.459 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.434 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.174 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.183 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.3333 | 0.3889 | 0.6667 | 0.3333 | 0.0667 | 0.1333 | 0.1333 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 0.3143 | 0.3590 | 0.4571 | 0.3143 | 0.0286 | 0.0571 | 0.0857 | 0.2000 |
| season | 0.60 | 88 | - | 296.000 | 86.000 | 15.000 | 2.000 | 17.000 | 51.000 | 41.000 | 17.000 | 74.000 | 0.2905 | 0.3425 | 0.5270 | 0.2905 | 0.0574 | 0.1723 | 0.0574 | 0.2500 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2240 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0140 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3590 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2991 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2600 |
| predicted_H | 1.0050 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0590 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1750 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3509 |
| predicted_R | 0.4980 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4710 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5299 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7710 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1700 | 0.2240 | 0.1930 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0230 | 0.0140 | 0.0192 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3640 | 3.3590 | 3.3619 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2840 | 0.2991 | 0.2904 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1930 | 0.2600 | 0.2215 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9400 | 1.0050 | 0.9677 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0590 | 0.0590 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1900 | 0.1750 | 0.1836 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3370 | 0.3509 | 0.3429 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4660 | 0.4980 | 0.4796 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4400 | 0.4710 | 0.4532 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5000 | 0.5299 | 0.5127 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8410 | 0.7710 | 0.8112 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 285 |
| Season rows before report date | 285 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 88 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.291 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.667 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 5 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260810_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 664034 |
| playerID | 664034 |
| playerName | Ty France |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.366 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.331 |
| sl_xba | 0.254 |
| sl_xslg | 0.444 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 48.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.171 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.165 | 0.000 | -0.165 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.490 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.707 | 4.000 | -0.707 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.180 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.207 | 0.000 | -0.207 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.470 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.501 | 0.000 | 0.499 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.023 | 0.000 | -0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.810 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.769 | 0.000 | -0.769 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.224 | 0.000 | -0.224 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.270 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.297 | 0.000 | -0.047 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.513 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.535 | 0.000 | -0.535 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.590 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.638 | 0.000 | -0.638 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.334 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.433 | 0.000 | -0.433 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.949 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.943 | 1.000 | -0.943 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.4700 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5300, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.4900 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.4900, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.2700 -> 0.2781 (boost 0.0081, better) | predicted_AB: 4.4900 -> 4.1343 (deboost -0.3557, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3308 -> 0.3017 (deboost -0.0291, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.7507 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2493, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.5263 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5263, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.167 HR/AB=0.026 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.200) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4729 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4729, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.1816 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0684, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3017 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.0517, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3017 (boost 0.0517, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.1816 (deboost -0.0684, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "592518",
"player_name": "Manny Machado",
"position": "3B",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.171,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.49,
"predicted_AVG": 0.18,
"predicted_BB": 0.47,
"predicted_H": 0.81,
"predicted_HR": 0.12,
"predicted_OBP": 0.27,
"predicted_R": 0.513,
"predicted_RBI": 0.59,
"predicted_SLG": 0.334,
"predicted_SO": 0.949
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1511,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.1343,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1869,
"predicted_BB": 0.4787,
"predicted_H": 0.7706,
"predicted_HBP": 0.002,
"predicted_HR": 0.1191,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2781,
"predicted_R": 0.4939,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5497,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3308,
"predicted_SO": 0.9468
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.171,
"after": 0.1511,
"delta": -0.0199,
"percent_delta": -0.1164,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.49,
"after": 4.1343,
"delta": -0.3557,
"percent_delta": -0.0792,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.1869,
"delta": 0.0069,
"percent_delta": 0.0383,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.47,
"after": 0.4787,
"delta": 0.0087,
"percent_delta": 0.0185,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.81,
"after": 0.7706,
"delta": -0.0394,
"percent_delta": -0.0486,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.1191,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.0075,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.2781,
"delta": 0.0081,
"percent_delta": 0.03,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.513,
"after": 0.4939,
"delta": -0.0191,
"percent_delta": -0.0372,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.59,
"after": 0.5497,
"delta": -0.0403,
"percent_delta": -0.0683,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.334,
"after": 0.3308,
"delta": -0.0032,
"percent_delta": -0.0096,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.949,
"after": 0.9468,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.0023,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.2781,
"delta": 0.0081,
"percent_delta": 0.03,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.49,
"after": 4.1343,
"delta": -0.3557,
"percent_delta": -0.0792,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 117
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1511,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.1343,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1816,
"predicted_BB": 0.475,
"predicted_H": 0.7507,
"predicted_HBP": 0.002,
"predicted_HR": 0.1148,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2659,
"predicted_R": 0.4729,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5263,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3017,
"predicted_SO": 0.9541
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1511,
"after": 0.1511,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.1343,
"after": 4.1343,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1869,
"after": 0.1816,
"delta": -0.0053,
"percent_delta": -0.0284,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4787,
"after": 0.475,
"delta": -0.0037,
"percent_delta": -0.0077,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7706,
"after": 0.7507,
"delta": -0.0199,
"percent_delta": -0.0258,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.002,
"after": 0.002,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1191,
"after": 0.1148,
"delta": -0.0043,
"percent_delta": -0.0361,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2781,
"after": 0.2659,
"delta": -0.0122,
"percent_delta": -0.0439,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4939,
"after": 0.4729,
"delta": -0.021,
"percent_delta": -0.0425,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5497,
"after": 0.5263,
"delta": -0.0234,
"percent_delta": -0.0426,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3308,
"after": 0.3017,
"delta": -0.0291,
"percent_delta": -0.088,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9468,
"after": 0.9541,
"delta": 0.0073,
"percent_delta": 0.0077,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3308,
"after": 0.3017,
"delta": -0.0291,
"percent_delta": -0.088,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.167 HR/AB=0.026",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1511,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1511,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.1343,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.1343,
"percent_delta": -0.0325,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.475,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.475,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7507,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2493,
"percent_delta": 0.3321,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.002,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1148,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1148,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5263,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5263,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9541,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0459,
"percent_delta": 0.0481,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.7507,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2493,
"percent_delta": 0.3321,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5263,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5263,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.200)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.9,
"bvp": 0.1
},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4729,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4729,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.25,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.25,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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"direction": "deboost",
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"after": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1816,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2659,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3017,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"before": 3.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2659,
"delta": 0.0159,
"percent_delta": 0.0637,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3017,
"delta": 0.0517,
"percent_delta": 0.2066,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -0.0684,
"percent_delta": -0.2737,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.171,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.171,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.49,
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"percent_delta": -0.3318,
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.53,
"percent_delta": 1.1277,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.81,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.81,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
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"delta": -0.12,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.2659,
"delta": -0.0041,
"percent_delta": -0.0152,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.513,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.513,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.59,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.59,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.334,
"after": 0.3017,
"delta": -0.0323,
"percent_delta": -0.0967,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.949,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.949,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.47,
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"delta": 0.53,
"percent_delta": 1.1277,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 4.49,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.49,
"percent_delta": -0.3318,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.171 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.490 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.180 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.470 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.810 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.270 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.513 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.590 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.334 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.949 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.151 | -0.020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.134 | -0.356 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.187 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.479 | 0.009 |
| predicted_H | 0.771 | -0.039 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.278 | 0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.494 | -0.019 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.550 | -0.040 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.331 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.947 | -0.002 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.151 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.134 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.182 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.475 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.751 | -0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.115 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.266 | -0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.473 | -0.021 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.526 | -0.023 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.302 | -0.029 |
| predicted_SO | 0.954 | 0.007 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.167 HR/AB=0.026
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.200)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.151 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.134 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.068 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.475 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.249 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.115 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.473 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.526 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.052 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.046 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 0.1667 | 0.2857 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 | 0.0000 | 0.0556 | 0.1667 | 0.2222 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 11.000 | 0.1667 | 0.2683 | 0.1944 | 0.1667 | 0.0000 | 0.1389 | 0.1389 | 0.3056 |
| season | 0.60 | 117 | - | 433.000 | 91.000 | 20.000 | 0.000 | 23.000 | 70.000 | 60.000 | 55.000 | 111.000 | 0.2102 | 0.2949 | 0.4157 | 0.2102 | 0.0531 | 0.1617 | 0.1270 | 0.2564 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1250 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6690 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1960 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4900 |
| predicted_H | 0.7190 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0020 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1180 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2888 |
| predicted_R | 0.4690 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4970 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3266 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9440 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1710 | 0.1250 | 0.1511 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.4900 | 3.6690 | 4.1343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1800 | 0.1960 | 0.1869 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4700 | 0.4900 | 0.4787 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8100 | 0.7190 | 0.7706 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0020 | 0.0020 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1200 | 0.1180 | 0.1191 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2700 | 0.2888 | 0.2781 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5130 | 0.4690 | 0.4939 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5900 | 0.4970 | 0.5497 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3340 | 0.3266 | 0.3308 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9490 | 0.9440 | 0.9468 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 437 |
| Season rows before report date | 437 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 117 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.21 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260810_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 592518 |
| playerID | 592518 |
| playerName | Manny Machado |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.31 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.331 |
| sl_xba | 0.243 |
| sl_xslg | 0.435 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 26.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.157 | 0.000 | -0.157 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 | -0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.850 | 4.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.016 | 3.000 | -0.016 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.272 | 0.000 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.240 | 0.333 | -0.240 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.267 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.305 | 0.000 | -0.305 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.023 | 0.000 | -0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.320 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.964 | 1.000 | -0.964 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.470 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.159 | 1.000 | -0.159 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.343 | 0.000 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.295 | 0.333 | -0.295 | -0.333 |
| predicted_R | 0.526 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.525 | 1.000 | -0.525 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.920 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.511 | 2.000 | -0.511 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.590 | 0.000 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.406 | 1.333 | -0.406 | -1.333 |
| predicted_SO | 1.009 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.039 | 0.000 | 0.961 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.0090 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.9910, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.3200 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.3200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | predicted_R: 0.5260 -> 0.5940 (boost 0.0680, better) | predicted_AB: 4.8500 -> 4.4477 (deboost -0.4023, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3344 -> 0.3075 (deboost -0.0269, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | predicted_AB: 4.4477 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.5523, better) | predicted_HR: 0.3768 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3768, worse) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.078 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5688 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4312, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5732 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.3732, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_AB: 5.0000 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2000 -> 0.5732 (boost 0.3732, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "701538",
"player_name": "Jackson Merrill",
"position": "CF",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.155,
"predicted_3B": 0.017,
"predicted_AB": 4.85,
"predicted_AVG": 0.272,
"predicted_BB": 0.267,
"predicted_H": 1.32,
"predicted_HR": 0.47,
"predicted_OBP": 0.343,
"predicted_R": 0.526,
"predicted_RBI": 0.92,
"predicted_SLG": 0.59,
"predicted_SO": 1.009
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.139,
"predicted_3B": 0.0387,
"predicted_AB": 4.4477,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2781,
"predicted_BB": 0.2402,
"predicted_H": 1.2343,
"predicted_HBP": 0.007,
"predicted_HR": 0.3908,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3344,
"predicted_R": 0.594,
"predicted_RBI": 0.8815,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5813,
"predicted_SO": 0.9709
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.155,
"after": 0.139,
"delta": -0.016,
"percent_delta": -0.1032,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.017,
"after": 0.0387,
"delta": 0.0217,
"percent_delta": 1.2765,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.85,
"after": 4.4477,
"delta": -0.4023,
"percent_delta": -0.0829,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.272,
"after": 0.2781,
"delta": 0.0061,
"percent_delta": 0.0224,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.267,
"after": 0.2402,
"delta": -0.0268,
"percent_delta": -0.1004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.32,
"after": 1.2343,
"delta": -0.0857,
"percent_delta": -0.0649,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.47,
"after": 0.3908,
"delta": -0.0792,
"percent_delta": -0.1685,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.343,
"after": 0.3344,
"delta": -0.0086,
"percent_delta": -0.0251,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.526,
"after": 0.594,
"delta": 0.068,
"percent_delta": 0.1293,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.92,
"after": 0.8815,
"delta": -0.0385,
"percent_delta": -0.0418,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.59,
"after": 0.5813,
"delta": -0.0087,
"percent_delta": -0.0147,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.009,
"after": 0.9709,
"delta": -0.0381,
"percent_delta": -0.0378,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.526,
"after": 0.594,
"delta": 0.068,
"percent_delta": 0.1293,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.85,
"after": 4.4477,
"delta": -0.4023,
"percent_delta": -0.0829,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 116
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.139,
"predicted_3B": 0.0387,
"predicted_AB": 4.4477,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2704,
"predicted_BB": 0.2384,
"predicted_H": 1.2025,
"predicted_HBP": 0.007,
"predicted_HR": 0.3768,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3075,
"predicted_R": 0.5688,
"predicted_RBI": 0.844,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5732,
"predicted_SO": 0.9784
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.139,
"after": 0.139,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0387,
"after": 0.0387,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.4477,
"after": 4.4477,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2781,
"after": 0.2704,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -0.0277,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2402,
"after": 0.2384,
"delta": -0.0018,
"percent_delta": -0.0075,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.2343,
"after": 1.2025,
"delta": -0.0318,
"percent_delta": -0.0258,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.007,
"after": 0.007,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.3908,
"after": 0.3768,
"delta": -0.014,
"percent_delta": -0.0358,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3344,
"after": 0.3075,
"delta": -0.0269,
"percent_delta": -0.0804,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.594,
"after": 0.5688,
"delta": -0.0252,
"percent_delta": -0.0424,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.8815,
"after": 0.844,
"delta": -0.0375,
"percent_delta": -0.0425,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5813,
"after": 0.5732,
"delta": -0.0081,
"percent_delta": -0.0139,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9709,
"after": 0.9784,
"delta": 0.0075,
"percent_delta": 0.0077,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3344,
"after": 0.3075,
"delta": -0.0269,
"percent_delta": -0.0804,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.078",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.139,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.139,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0387,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0387,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.4477,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.5523,
"percent_delta": 0.1242,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2384,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2384,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.2025,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.2025,
"percent_delta": -0.1684,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.007,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.3768,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3768,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.844,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.156,
"percent_delta": 0.1848,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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},
{
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},
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},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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],
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}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
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{
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.850 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.272 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.267 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.320 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.470 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.343 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.526 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.920 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.590 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.009 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.139 | -0.016 |
| predicted_3B | 0.039 | 0.022 |
| predicted_AB | 4.448 | -0.402 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.278 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.240 | -0.027 |
| predicted_H | 1.234 | -0.086 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.007 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.391 | -0.079 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.334 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.594 | 0.068 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.881 | -0.039 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.581 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.971 | -0.038 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.139 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.039 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.448 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.270 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.238 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.202 | -0.032 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.377 | -0.014 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | -0.027 |
| predicted_R | 0.569 | -0.025 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.844 | -0.037 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.573 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.978 | 0.008 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.078
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.139 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.039 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.552 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | -0.070 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.238 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.202 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.377 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.200 | -0.107 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.431 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.156 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.200 | -0.373 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.022 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.3500 | 0.3500 | 0.9000 | 0.3500 | 0.1500 | 0.3500 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 14.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 13.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 0.3590 | 0.3902 | 0.7436 | 0.3590 | 0.1026 | 0.3333 | 0.0513 | 0.2051 |
| season | 0.60 | 116 | - | 454.000 | 111.000 | 18.000 | 2.000 | 19.000 | 61.000 | 61.000 | 31.000 | 117.000 | 0.2445 | 0.2936 | 0.4185 | 0.2445 | 0.0418 | 0.1344 | 0.0683 | 0.2577 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1180 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0670 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9210 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2862 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2050 |
| predicted_H | 1.1220 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0070 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2870 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3231 |
| predicted_R | 0.6830 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.8310 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5699 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9210 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 | 0.1180 | 0.1390 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 | 0.0670 | 0.0387 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.8500 | 3.9210 | 4.4477 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2720 | 0.2862 | 0.2781 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 | 0.2050 | 0.2402 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.3200 | 1.1220 | 1.2343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0070 | 0.0070 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.4700 | 0.2870 | 0.3908 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3430 | 0.3231 | 0.3344 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5260 | 0.6830 | 0.5940 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.9200 | 0.8310 | 0.8815 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5900 | 0.5699 | 0.5813 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0090 | 0.9210 | 0.9709 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 440 |
| Season rows before report date | 440 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 116 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.244 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260810_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 701538 |
| playerID | 701538 |
| playerName | Jackson Merrill |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.306 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.329 |
| sl_xba | 0.257 |
| sl_xslg | 0.461 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 46.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 26.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 55.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.214 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.221 | 0.000 | -0.221 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 | -0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.890 | 4.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.037 | 4.000 | -0.037 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.231 | 0.250 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.290 | 0.000 | -0.040 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.402 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.400 | 0.000 | -0.400 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.102 | 0.000 | -0.102 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.130 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.169 | 0.000 | -0.169 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.230 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.091 | 0.000 | 0.909 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.331 | 0.250 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.356 | 0.000 | -0.106 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.547 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.556 | 0.000 | 0.444 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.700 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.496 | 0.000 | 0.504 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.465 | 1.000 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.421 | 0.000 | 0.579 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.855 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.907 | 0.000 | 0.093 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_HR: 0.2300 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7700, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.8900 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.8900, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_R: 0.5470 -> 0.6186 (boost 0.0716, better) | predicted_AB: 4.8900 -> 4.5072 (deboost -0.3828, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4746 -> 0.4364 (deboost -0.0382, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 4.5072 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.4928, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4032 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4032, worse) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.042 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.333) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5923 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4077, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4364 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.2364, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 5.0000 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2000 -> 0.4364 (boost 0.2364, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "665487",
"player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
"position": "RF",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.214,
"predicted_3B": 0.017,
"predicted_AB": 4.89,
"predicted_AVG": 0.231,
"predicted_BB": 0.402,
"predicted_H": 1.13,
"predicted_HR": 0.23,
"predicted_OBP": 0.331,
"predicted_R": 0.547,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7,
"predicted_SLG": 0.465,
"predicted_SO": 0.855
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2431,
"predicted_3B": 0.0144,
"predicted_AB": 4.5072,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2475,
"predicted_BB": 0.4063,
"predicted_H": 1.1074,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.2131,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3348,
"predicted_R": 0.6186,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6245,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4746,
"predicted_SO": 0.7903
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.214,
"after": 0.2431,
"delta": 0.0291,
"percent_delta": 0.136,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.017,
"after": 0.0144,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.1529,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.89,
"after": 4.5072,
"delta": -0.3828,
"percent_delta": -0.0783,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.231,
"after": 0.2475,
"delta": 0.0165,
"percent_delta": 0.0714,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.402,
"after": 0.4063,
"delta": 0.0043,
"percent_delta": 0.0107,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.13,
"after": 1.1074,
"delta": -0.0226,
"percent_delta": -0.02,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 0.2131,
"delta": -0.0169,
"percent_delta": -0.0735,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.331,
"after": 0.3348,
"delta": 0.0038,
"percent_delta": 0.0115,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.547,
"after": 0.6186,
"delta": 0.0716,
"percent_delta": 0.1309,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7,
"after": 0.6245,
"delta": -0.0755,
"percent_delta": -0.1079,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.465,
"after": 0.4746,
"delta": 0.0096,
"percent_delta": 0.0206,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.855,
"after": 0.7903,
"delta": -0.0647,
"percent_delta": -0.0757,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.547,
"after": 0.6186,
"delta": 0.0716,
"percent_delta": 0.1309,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.89,
"after": 4.5072,
"delta": -0.3828,
"percent_delta": -0.0783,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 117
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2431,
"predicted_3B": 0.0144,
"predicted_AB": 4.5072,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2394,
"predicted_BB": 0.4032,
"predicted_H": 1.0788,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.2055,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3018,
"predicted_R": 0.5923,
"predicted_RBI": 0.598,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4364,
"predicted_SO": 0.7964
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2431,
"after": 0.2431,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0144,
"after": 0.0144,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.5072,
"after": 4.5072,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2475,
"after": 0.2394,
"delta": -0.0081,
"percent_delta": -0.0327,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4063,
"after": 0.4032,
"delta": -0.0031,
"percent_delta": -0.0076,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.1074,
"after": 1.0788,
"delta": -0.0286,
"percent_delta": -0.0258,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.026,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2131,
"after": 0.2055,
"delta": -0.0076,
"percent_delta": -0.0357,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3348,
"after": 0.3018,
"delta": -0.033,
"percent_delta": -0.0986,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6186,
"after": 0.5923,
"delta": -0.0263,
"percent_delta": -0.0425,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6245,
"after": 0.598,
"delta": -0.0265,
"percent_delta": -0.0424,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4746,
"after": 0.4364,
"delta": -0.0382,
"percent_delta": -0.0805,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7903,
"after": 0.7964,
"delta": 0.0061,
"percent_delta": 0.0077,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4746,
"after": 0.4364,
"delta": -0.0382,
"percent_delta": -0.0805,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.214,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.214,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.017,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.017,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.89,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.89,
"percent_delta": -0.182,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.231,
"after": 0.2394,
"delta": 0.0084,
"percent_delta": 0.0364,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.402,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.402,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.13,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.13,
"percent_delta": -0.115,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.77,
"percent_delta": 3.3478,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.331,
"after": 0.3018,
"delta": -0.0292,
"percent_delta": -0.0882,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.547,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.453,
"percent_delta": 0.8282,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3,
"percent_delta": 0.4286,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.465,
"after": 0.4364,
"delta": -0.0286,
"percent_delta": -0.0615,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.855,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.145,
"percent_delta": 0.1696,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.77,
"percent_delta": 3.3478,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.89,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.89,
"percent_delta": -0.182,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.214 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.890 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.231 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.402 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.130 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.230 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.331 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.547 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.700 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.465 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.855 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.243 | 0.029 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 4.507 | -0.383 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | 0.016 |
| predicted_BB | 0.406 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 1.107 | -0.023 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.213 | -0.017 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.335 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.619 | 0.072 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.625 | -0.075 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.475 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.790 | -0.065 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.243 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.507 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.403 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 1.079 | -0.029 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.205 | -0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.302 | -0.033 |
| predicted_R | 0.592 | -0.026 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.598 | -0.027 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.436 | -0.038 |
| predicted_SO | 0.796 | 0.006 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.042
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.333)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.243 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.493 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | -0.039 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.403 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.079 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.205 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.200 | -0.102 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.408 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.402 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.200 | -0.236 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.204 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.2857 | 0.3478 | 0.6667 | 0.2857 | 0.0952 | 0.1905 | 0.0952 | 0.0952 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 40.000 | 9.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 10.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 0.2250 | 0.3111 | 0.5500 | 0.2250 | 0.0750 | 0.1250 | 0.1250 | 0.1250 |
| season | 0.60 | 117 | - | 464.000 | 130.000 | 25.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 53.000 | 64.000 | 47.000 | 100.000 | 0.2802 | 0.3500 | 0.4138 | 0.2802 | 0.0237 | 0.1142 | 0.1013 | 0.2155 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0110 |
| predicted_AB | 4.0080 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2691 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4120 |
| predicted_H | 1.0780 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0260 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1910 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3398 |
| predicted_R | 0.7120 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5260 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4871 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7060 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2140 | 0.2810 | 0.2431 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 | 0.0110 | 0.0144 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.8900 | 4.0080 | 4.5072 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2310 | 0.2691 | 0.2475 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4020 | 0.4120 | 0.4063 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1300 | 1.0780 | 1.1074 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0260 | 0.0260 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2300 | 0.1910 | 0.2131 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3310 | 0.3398 | 0.3348 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5470 | 0.7120 | 0.6186 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7000 | 0.5260 | 0.6245 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4650 | 0.4871 | 0.4746 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8550 | 0.7060 | 0.7903 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 462 |
| Season rows before report date | 462 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 117 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.28 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260810_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 665487 |
| playerID | 665487 |
| playerName | Fernando Tatis Jr. |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.337 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.36 |
| sl_xba | 0.286 |
| sl_xslg | 0.456 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 52.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 5.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.077 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.385 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.396 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 1.000 | 1.000 | -0.500 | -0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.077 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.610 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 1.000 | 1.000 | -1.000 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.396 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 1.000 | 1.000 | -0.500 | -0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.308 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 2.000 | 2.000 | -2.000 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.929 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 4.000 | 4.000 | -3.500 | -3.500 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.6100 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3900, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | predicted_H: 0.6100 -> 0.7146 (boost 0.1046, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.9290 -> 0.7654 (deboost -0.1636, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.7654 -> 0.3656 (deboost -0.3998, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.6962 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3038, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.5604 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5604, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.045 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3268 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3268, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2042 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1288, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3656 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0326, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.3656 (boost 0.0326, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2042 (deboost -0.1288, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669720",
"player_name": "Austin Hays",
"position": "LF",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.077,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.385,
"predicted_AVG": 0.396,
"predicted_BB": 0.077,
"predicted_H": 0.61,
"predicted_HR": 0.16,
"predicted_OBP": 0.396,
"predicted_R": 0.308,
"predicted_RBI": 0.56,
"predicted_SLG": 0.929,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0827,
"predicted_3B": 0.002,
"predicted_AB": 3.41,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3531,
"predicted_BB": 0.097,
"predicted_H": 0.7146,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.1603,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3636,
"predicted_R": 0.3413,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5853,
"predicted_SLG": 0.7654,
"predicted_SO": 0.9397
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.077,
"after": 0.0827,
"delta": 0.0057,
"percent_delta": 0.074,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.002,
"delta": 0.002,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.385,
"after": 3.41,
"delta": 0.025,
"percent_delta": 0.0074,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.396,
"after": 0.3531,
"delta": -0.0429,
"percent_delta": -0.1083,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.077,
"after": 0.097,
"delta": 0.02,
"percent_delta": 0.2597,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.61,
"after": 0.7146,
"delta": 0.1046,
"percent_delta": 0.1715,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.1603,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0019,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.396,
"after": 0.3636,
"delta": -0.0324,
"percent_delta": -0.0818,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.308,
"after": 0.3413,
"delta": 0.0333,
"percent_delta": 0.1081,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.56,
"after": 0.5853,
"delta": 0.0253,
"percent_delta": 0.0452,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.929,
"after": 0.7654,
"delta": -0.1636,
"percent_delta": -0.1761,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.226,
"delta": -0.107,
"percent_delta": -0.3213,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3656,
"delta": 0.0326,
"percent_delta": 0.0978,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3656,
"delta": 0.0326,
"percent_delta": 0.0978,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2042,
"delta": -0.1288,
"percent_delta": -0.3869,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.077,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.077,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.385,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.615,
"percent_delta": 0.1817,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.396,
"after": 0.2042,
"delta": -0.1918,
"percent_delta": -0.4843,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.077,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.077,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.61,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.39,
"percent_delta": 2.2787,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.16,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.396,
"after": 0.226,
"delta": -0.17,
"percent_delta": -0.4293,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.308,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.692,
"percent_delta": 2.2468,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.56,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.56,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.929,
"after": 0.3656,
"delta": -0.5634,
"percent_delta": -0.6065,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.61,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.39,
"percent_delta": 2.2787,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.077 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.385 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.396 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.077 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.610 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.396 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.308 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.929 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.083 | 0.006 |
| predicted_3B | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.025 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.353 | -0.043 |
| predicted_BB | 0.097 | 0.020 |
| predicted_H | 0.715 | 0.105 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.364 | -0.032 |
| predicted_R | 0.341 | 0.033 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.585 | 0.025 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.765 | -0.164 |
| predicted_SO | 0.940 | -0.060 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.083 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.204 | -0.149 |
| predicted_BB | 0.096 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.696 | -0.018 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.155 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.226 | -0.138 |
| predicted_R | 0.327 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | -0.025 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.366 | -0.400 |
| predicted_SO | 0.947 | 0.007 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.045
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.083 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.129 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.096 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.304 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.155 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.107 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.327 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.560 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.033 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.053 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 13.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.3846 | 0.3846 | 0.6154 | 0.3846 | 0.0769 | 0.2308 | 0.0000 | 0.0769 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 0.2647 | 0.2857 | 0.4412 | 0.2647 | 0.0588 | 0.2647 | 0.0294 | 0.2647 |
| season | 0.60 | 13 | - | 44.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 13.000 | 0.2500 | 0.2667 | 0.4091 | 0.2500 | 0.0454 | 0.2046 | 0.0227 | 0.2954 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0940 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4600 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2672 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1370 |
| predicted_H | 0.9240 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0120 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1610 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2987 |
| predicted_R | 0.4080 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6360 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4377 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8190 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0770 | 0.0940 | 0.0827 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0060 | 0.0020 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3850 | 3.4600 | 3.4100 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3960 | 0.2672 | 0.3531 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.0770 | 0.1370 | 0.0970 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6100 | 0.9240 | 0.7146 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0120 | 0.0120 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1600 | 0.1610 | 0.1603 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3960 | 0.2987 | 0.3636 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3080 | 0.4080 | 0.3413 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5600 | 0.6360 | 0.5853 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.9290 | 0.4377 | 0.7654 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.8190 | 0.9397 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 1 |
| Season rows before report date | 1 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 13 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.25 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 1.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH-DH |
| gameID | 20260809_HOU@SD |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 669720 |
| note | Homered for Sheets in the 8th. |
| playerID | 669720 |
| playerName | Austin Hays |
| pos | LF |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-08-09 |
| sl_k_percent | 28.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 2.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.283 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.294 |
| sl_xba | 0.289 |
| sl_xslg | 0.389 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 51.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | -0.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 36.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.225 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.226 | 0.000 | 0.774 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.060 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.981 | 4.000 | 1.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.288 | 0.000 | -0.038 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.400 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.443 | 0.000 | -0.443 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.750 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.858 | 0.000 | 0.142 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.142 | 0.000 | -0.142 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.363 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.389 | 0.000 | -0.139 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.350 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.481 | 0.000 | -0.481 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.340 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.425 | 0.000 | -0.425 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.381 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.506 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.750 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.783 | 1.000 | 1.217 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.7500 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.2500, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.4000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0600 -> 3.1222 (boost 0.0622, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3632 -> 0.3329 (deboost -0.0303, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.7717 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2283, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.3725 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3725, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.024 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3044 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3044, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2533 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0797, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3970 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0640, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.3970 (boost 0.0640, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2533 (deboost -0.0797, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669134",
"player_name": "Luis Campusano",
"position": "C",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.225,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.06,
"predicted_AVG": 0.245,
"predicted_BB": 0.4,
"predicted_H": 0.75,
"predicted_HR": 0.08,
"predicted_OBP": 0.363,
"predicted_R": 0.35,
"predicted_RBI": 0.34,
"predicted_SLG": 0.381,
"predicted_SO": 0.75
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2202,
"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 3.1222,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2595,
"predicted_BB": 0.3754,
"predicted_H": 0.8118,
"predicted_HBP": 0.079,
"predicted_HR": 0.0784,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3632,
"predicted_R": 0.3179,
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"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2533,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3329,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.397,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2533,
"delta": -0.0797,
"percent_delta": -0.2393,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3329,
"delta": -0.0001,
"percent_delta": -0.0003,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.397,
"delta": 0.064,
"percent_delta": 0.1921,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.397,
"delta": 0.064,
"percent_delta": 0.1921,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2533,
"delta": -0.0797,
"percent_delta": -0.2393,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.225,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.775,
"percent_delta": 3.4444,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.06,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.94,
"percent_delta": 0.3072,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.2533,
"delta": 0.0083,
"percent_delta": 0.0339,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.25,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.08,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.363,
"after": 0.3329,
"delta": -0.0301,
"percent_delta": -0.0829,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.35,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.35,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.34,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.381,
"after": 0.397,
"delta": 0.016,
"percent_delta": 0.042,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.25,
"percent_delta": 1.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.25,
"percent_delta": 1.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.225 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.060 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.400 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.750 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.363 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.350 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.340 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.381 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.750 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.220 | -0.005 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.122 | 0.062 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.260 | 0.015 |
| predicted_BB | 0.375 | -0.025 |
| predicted_H | 0.812 | 0.062 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.079 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.078 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.363 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.318 | -0.032 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.359 | 0.019 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.396 | 0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 0.766 | 0.016 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.220 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.122 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.253 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.372 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.791 | -0.021 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.079 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.076 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | -0.030 |
| predicted_R | 0.304 | -0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.343 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.397 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.772 | 0.006 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.024
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.220 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.122 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.080 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.372 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.209 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.076 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.304 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.343 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.064 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.228 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.2353 | 0.3158 | 0.2941 | 0.2353 | 0.0000 | 0.0588 | 0.0588 | 0.2353 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 0.3235 | 0.3947 | 0.3824 | 0.3235 | 0.0000 | 0.1177 | 0.0882 | 0.2353 |
| season | 0.60 | 40 | - | 115.000 | 34.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 16.000 | 14.000 | 16.000 | 30.000 | 0.2957 | 0.3910 | 0.4783 | 0.2957 | 0.0348 | 0.1391 | 0.1391 | 0.2609 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2130 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2170 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2816 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3380 |
| predicted_H | 0.9060 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0790 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0760 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3636 |
| predicted_R | 0.2690 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3870 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4198 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7900 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2250 | 0.2130 | 0.2202 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0020 | 0.0008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.0600 | 3.2170 | 3.1222 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2450 | 0.2816 | 0.2595 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4000 | 0.3380 | 0.3754 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7500 | 0.9060 | 0.8118 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0790 | 0.0790 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.0760 | 0.0784 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3630 | 0.3636 | 0.3632 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3500 | 0.2690 | 0.3179 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3400 | 0.3870 | 0.3586 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3810 | 0.4198 | 0.3964 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7500 | 0.7900 | 0.7658 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 106 |
| Season rows before report date | 106 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 40 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.296 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260808_HOU@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669134 |
| playerID | 669134 |
| playerName | Luis Campusano |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-08-08 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.384 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.336 |
| sl_xba | 0.25 |
| sl_xslg | 0.394 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.090 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.107 | 0.000 | -0.107 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.373 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.444 | 4.000 | 0.556 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.221 | 0.250 | 0.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.358 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.380 | 0.000 | -0.380 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.024 | 0.000 | -0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.740 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.761 | 1.000 | 0.239 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.059 | 0.000 | -0.059 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.298 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.312 | 0.250 | -0.062 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.403 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.454 | 0.000 | -0.454 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.259 | 0.000 | -0.259 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.098 | 0.000 | -0.098 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.285 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.303 | 0.250 | -0.053 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.821 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.829 | 2.000 | 0.171 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.3730 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.6270, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.4030 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4030, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.3730 -> 3.4560 (boost 0.0830, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3006 -> 0.2852 (deboost -0.0154, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.7499 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2501, better) | predicted_AB: 3.4560 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.4560, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.013 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3566 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3566, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2170 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1160, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2170 (deboost -0.1160, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "630105",
"player_name": "Jake Cronenworth",
"position": "2B",
"team": "SD",
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},
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": 0.0479,
"percent_delta": 0.168,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.116,
"percent_delta": 0.5346,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 1.0,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.217,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2852,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2851,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.217,
"delta": -0.116,
"percent_delta": -0.3484,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2852,
"delta": -0.0478,
"percent_delta": -0.1435,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2851,
"delta": -0.0479,
"percent_delta": -0.1437,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.217,
"delta": -0.116,
"percent_delta": -0.3484,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.09,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.373,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.627,
"percent_delta": 0.1859,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.227,
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"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -0.0441,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.358,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.358,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.74,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.26,
"percent_delta": 0.3514,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.05,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.05,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.298,
"after": 0.2852,
"delta": -0.0128,
"percent_delta": -0.043,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.403,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.31,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.285,
"after": 0.2851,
"delta": 0.0001,
"percent_delta": 0.0004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.821,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.179,
"percent_delta": 0.218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 3.373,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.627,
"percent_delta": 0.1859,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.403,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.373 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.358 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.740 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.298 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.285 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.821 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.103 | 0.013 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.456 | 0.083 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.332 | -0.026 |
| predicted_H | 0.770 | 0.030 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.097 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.045 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.301 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.372 | -0.031 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.287 | -0.023 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.289 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.827 | 0.006 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.103 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.456 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.217 | -0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.330 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.750 | -0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.097 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.044 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.285 | -0.015 |
| predicted_R | 0.357 | -0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.275 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.285 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.006 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.013
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.103 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.456 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.116 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.330 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.250 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.044 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.048 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.357 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.275 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.048 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.166 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.2222 | 0.3000 | 0.2778 | 0.2222 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0556 | 0.2222 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 40.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3023 | 0.2750 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.1000 | 0.0500 | 0.2250 |
| season | 0.60 | 67 | - | 226.000 | 49.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 17.000 | 27.000 | 24.000 | 55.000 | 0.2168 | 0.3059 | 0.2832 | 0.2168 | 0.0133 | 0.0752 | 0.1062 | 0.2434 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1200 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5710 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2270 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2970 |
| predicted_H | 0.8110 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0970 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0390 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3042 |
| predicted_R | 0.3300 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2560 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2940 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8360 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0900 | 0.1200 | 0.1026 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0020 | 0.0008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3730 | 3.5710 | 3.4560 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2270 | 0.2270 | 0.2270 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3580 | 0.2970 | 0.3324 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7400 | 0.8110 | 0.7698 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0970 | 0.0970 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0500 | 0.0390 | 0.0454 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2980 | 0.3042 | 0.3006 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4030 | 0.3300 | 0.3724 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3100 | 0.2560 | 0.2874 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2850 | 0.2940 | 0.2888 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8210 | 0.8360 | 0.8273 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 205 |
| Season rows before report date | 205 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 67 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.217 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260810_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 630105 |
| playerID | 630105 |
| playerName | Jake Cronenworth |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.274 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.291 |
| sl_xba | 0.228 |
| sl_xslg | 0.323 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 31.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 10.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.097 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.096 | 0.000 | -0.096 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.451 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.557 | 4.000 | -0.557 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.225 | 0.000 | -0.225 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.469 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.475 | 0.000 | 0.525 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.010 | 0.000 | -0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.680 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.800 | 0.000 | -0.800 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.094 | 0.000 | -0.094 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.319 | 0.000 | -0.069 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.407 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.436 | 0.000 | -0.436 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.270 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.414 | 0.000 | -0.414 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.284 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.331 | 0.000 | -0.331 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.726 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.741 | 1.000 | 1.259 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.7260 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.2740, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.6800 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6800, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.2850 -> 0.2644 (deboost -0.0206, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.6746 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3254, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4576 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4576, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.012 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.200) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3501 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3501, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1973 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1357, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1973 (deboost -0.1357, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "593428",
"player_name": "Xander Bogaerts",
"position": "SS",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.451,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2,
"predicted_BB": 0.469,
"predicted_H": 0.68,
"predicted_HR": 0.04,
"predicted_OBP": 0.296,
"predicted_R": 0.407,
"predicted_RBI": 0.27,
"predicted_SLG": 0.284,
"predicted_SO": 0.726
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0996,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.4199,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2043,
"predicted_BB": 0.4612,
"predicted_H": 0.6925,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.0447,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2995,
"predicted_R": 0.3656,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2596,
"predicted_SLG": 0.285,
"predicted_SO": 0.7165
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.097,
"after": 0.0996,
"delta": 0.0026,
"percent_delta": 0.0268,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.451,
"after": 3.4199,
"delta": -0.0311,
"percent_delta": -0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.2043,
"delta": 0.0043,
"percent_delta": 0.0215,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.469,
"after": 0.4612,
"delta": -0.0078,
"percent_delta": -0.0166,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.68,
"after": 0.6925,
"delta": 0.0125,
"percent_delta": 0.0184,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.04,
"after": 0.0447,
"delta": 0.0047,
"percent_delta": 0.1175,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.296,
"after": 0.2995,
"delta": 0.0035,
"percent_delta": 0.0118,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.407,
"after": 0.3656,
"delta": -0.0414,
"percent_delta": -0.1017,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.2596,
"delta": -0.0104,
"percent_delta": -0.0385,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.284,
"after": 0.285,
"delta": 0.001,
"percent_delta": 0.0035,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.726,
"after": 0.7165,
"delta": -0.0095,
"percent_delta": -0.0131,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 113
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0996,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.4199,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1973,
"predicted_BB": 0.4576,
"predicted_H": 0.6746,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.0431,
"predicted_OBP": 0.292,
"predicted_R": 0.3501,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2486,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2644,
"predicted_SO": 0.722
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0996,
"after": 0.0996,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4199,
"after": 3.4199,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2043,
"after": 0.1973,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -0.0343,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4612,
"after": 0.4576,
"delta": -0.0036,
"percent_delta": -0.0078,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6925,
"after": 0.6746,
"delta": -0.0179,
"percent_delta": -0.0258,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.016,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0447,
"after": 0.0431,
"delta": -0.0016,
"percent_delta": -0.0358,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2995,
"after": 0.292,
"delta": -0.0075,
"percent_delta": -0.025,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3656,
"after": 0.3501,
"delta": -0.0155,
"percent_delta": -0.0424,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2596,
"after": 0.2486,
"delta": -0.011,
"percent_delta": -0.0424,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.285,
"after": 0.2644,
"delta": -0.0206,
"percent_delta": -0.0723,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7165,
"after": 0.722,
"delta": 0.0055,
"percent_delta": 0.0077,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.285,
"after": 0.2644,
"delta": -0.0206,
"percent_delta": -0.0723,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.012",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0996,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0996,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4199,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.4199,
"percent_delta": -0.1228,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4576,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4576,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6746,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3254,
"percent_delta": 0.4824,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.016,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0431,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0431,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2486,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2486,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.722,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.278,
"percent_delta": 0.385,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.6746,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3254,
"percent_delta": 0.4824,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4576,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4576,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.200)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.9,
"bvp": 0.1
},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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],
"summary": {
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
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{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1973,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.292,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2644,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.407,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.27,
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"delta": -0.27,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.284,
"after": 0.2644,
"delta": -0.0196,
"percent_delta": -0.069,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.726,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.274,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 1,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.68,
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.097 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.451 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.469 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.680 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.407 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.270 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.284 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.726 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.100 | 0.003 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.420 | -0.031 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.204 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.461 | -0.008 |
| predicted_H | 0.693 | 0.012 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.045 | 0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.366 | -0.041 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.260 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.285 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.717 | -0.009 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.100 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.420 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.197 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.458 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.675 | -0.018 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.043 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.292 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.350 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.249 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.264 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SO | 0.722 | 0.005 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.012
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.200)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.100 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.420 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.136 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.458 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.325 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.043 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.041 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.350 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.249 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.069 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.278 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.1250 | 0.2222 | 0.1250 | 0.1250 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1250 | 0.1875 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3514 | 0.3125 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.0312 | 0.1562 | 0.2188 |
| season | 0.60 | 113 | - | 390.000 | 86.000 | 11.000 | 0.000 | 9.000 | 41.000 | 46.000 | 53.000 | 82.000 | 0.2205 | 0.3156 | 0.3179 | 0.2205 | 0.0231 | 0.1051 | 0.1359 | 0.2103 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1030 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3790 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2099 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4510 |
| predicted_H | 0.7090 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0160 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0510 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3042 |
| predicted_R | 0.3110 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2460 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2864 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7040 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0970 | 0.1030 | 0.0996 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4510 | 3.3790 | 3.4199 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2000 | 0.2099 | 0.2043 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4690 | 0.4510 | 0.4612 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6800 | 0.7090 | 0.6925 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0160 | 0.0160 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0400 | 0.0510 | 0.0447 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2960 | 0.3042 | 0.2995 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4070 | 0.3110 | 0.3656 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2700 | 0.2460 | 0.2596 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2840 | 0.2864 | 0.2850 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7260 | 0.7040 | 0.7165 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 406 |
| Season rows before report date | 406 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 113 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.221 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260809_HOU@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 593428 |
| playerID | 593428 |
| playerName | Xander Bogaerts |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-08-09 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.288 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.318 |
| sl_xba | 0.247 |
| sl_xslg | 0.369 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 5.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.957 | 1.000 | 2.043 | 3.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 2.652 | 1.000 | -0.652 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_H | 4.913 | 6.000 | 0.087 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 4.200 | 4.200 | 4.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 4.548 | 4.000 | -0.348 | 0.200 |
| predicted_SO | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_SO | 4.130 | 3.000 | 1.870 | 3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 4.3333 -> 4.2000 (deboost -0.1333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 4.3333 -> 4.2000 (deboost -0.1333, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "621111",
"player_name": "Walker Buehler",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 4.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 5.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.3333,
"predicted_SO": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 4.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 5.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.2,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.3333,
"after": 4.2,
"delta": -0.1333,
"percent_delta": -0.0308,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.3333,
"after": 4.2,
"delta": -0.1333,
"percent_delta": -0.0308,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.3333,
"after": 4.2,
"delta": -0.1333,
"percent_delta": -0.0308,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.3333,
"after": 4.2,
"delta": -0.1333,
"percent_delta": -0.0308,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 4.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 4.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 6.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 21.100 | 12.000 | 23.000 | 14.000 | 15.000 | 3.000 | 5.0625 | 1.7344 | 0.5625 | 1.0781 | 0.6562 | 0.7031 | 0.1406 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 46.000 | 31.000 | 51.000 | 23.000 | 42.000 | 10.000 | 6.0652 | 1.6087 | 0.6739 | 1.1087 | 0.5000 | 0.9130 | 0.2174 |
| season | 0.20 | 23 | 108.100 | 61.000 | 113.000 | 45.000 | 95.000 | 14.000 | 5.0677 | 1.4585 | 0.5631 | 1.0431 | 0.4154 | 0.8769 | 0.1292 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.3270 |
| predicted_ER | 2.6150 |
| predicted_ERA | 5.2488 |
| predicted_H | 4.7630 |
| predicted_HR | 0.7270 |
| predicted_IP | 4.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 3.7560 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.5812 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 4.0000 | 2.3270 | 3.0388 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 2.0000 | 2.6150 | 2.3533 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 5.2488 | 5.2488 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 5.0000 | 4.7630 | 4.8638 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.7270 | 0.4177 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 4.1000 | 4.1000 | 4.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 6.0000 | 3.7560 | 4.7107 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.5812 | 1.5812 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 23 |
| Season rows before report date | 23 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 23 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 4.2 |
| H | 5 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 4 |
| SO | 6 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 23 |
| Pitches | 90 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 18 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 5.07 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 3 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 3 |
| Pitching_H | 6 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 4.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 76 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 3 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 47 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260806_SD@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 621111 |
| playerID | 621111 |
| playerName | Walker Buehler |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-08-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.339 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.323 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.5 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 79.504272988 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.307373445 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.291 | 0.000 | -0.291 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.364 | 0.000 | 0.636 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 0.927 | 1.000 | 1.073 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.007 | 1.000 | 0.093 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.382 | 1.000 | -1.382 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "670970",
"player_name": "Adrian Morejon",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.3333,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 12.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.5000 | 0.0000 | 0.3333 | 0.1667 | 2.0000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 11.100 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 17.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.7941 | 0.0000 | 0.5294 | 0.2647 | 1.5000 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 55 | 63.100 | 20.000 | 51.000 | 16.000 | 76.000 | 3.000 | 2.8421 | 1.0579 | 0.3158 | 0.8053 | 0.2526 | 1.2000 | 0.0474 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3110 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2240 |
| predicted_ERA | 1.6773 |
| predicted_H | 0.7590 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0590 |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.7610 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.8895 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3110 | 0.1650 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.2240 | 0.5884 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 1.6773 | 1.6773 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 0.7590 | 1.3417 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.0590 | 0.5009 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.7610 | 0.9341 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.8895 | 0.8895 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 55 |
| Season rows before report date | 55 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 55 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 6 |
| Pitches | 23 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.84 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 8 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 8 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 670970 |
| playerID | 670970 |
| playerName | Adrian Morejon |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.246 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.243 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 1.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 34.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.8 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 74.7150485 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.293847688 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.500 | 0.000 | -0.500 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.357 | 0.000 | 0.643 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.571 | 0.000 | 0.429 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.200 | 1.200 | 1.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.807 | 1.000 | 0.393 | 0.200 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.179 | 2.000 | -0.179 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.2000 (boost 0.2000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.2000 (boost 0.2000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "669093",
"player_name": "Jeremiah Estrada",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.2,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.2,
"delta": 0.2,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.2,
"delta": 0.2,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.2,
"delta": 0.2,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.2,
"delta": 0.2,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.6923 | 0.0000 | 0.2308 | 0.4615 | 1.3846 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.100 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 13.000 | 0.000 | 4.3200 | 1.4400 | 0.4800 | 0.7200 | 0.7200 | 1.5600 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 28 | 26.100 | 10.000 | 16.000 | 14.000 | 33.000 | 2.000 | 3.4177 | 1.1392 | 0.3797 | 0.6076 | 0.5316 | 1.2532 | 0.0760 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4380 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3460 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.3114 |
| predicted_H | 0.6760 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0750 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1240 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1844 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4380 | 0.1946 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.3460 | 0.7095 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.3114 | 3.3114 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.6760 | 0.8561 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.0750 | 0.5891 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.1240 | 1.0551 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1844 | 1.1844 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 28 |
| Season rows before report date | 28 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 28 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.2 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 6 |
| Pitches | 21 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.42 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 12 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 9 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260809_HOU@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669093 |
| playerID | 669093 |
| playerName | Jeremiah Estrada |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-08-09 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.26 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.286 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 34.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.4 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 72.949672857 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.921756964 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.354 | 1.000 | -0.354 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.104 | 0.000 | -0.104 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.500 | 0.000 | -0.500 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.985 | 1.000 | 0.115 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.917 | 1.000 | -1.917 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "695243",
"player_name": "Mason Miller",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.200 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 1.5882 | 0.8824 | 0.1765 | 0.5294 | 0.3529 | 1.5882 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.200 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 20.000 | 0.000 | 0.8438 | 0.9375 | 0.0938 | 0.5625 | 0.3750 | 1.8750 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 48 | 50.100 | 5.000 | 24.000 | 17.000 | 92.000 | 0.000 | 0.8940 | 0.8146 | 0.0993 | 0.4768 | 0.3377 | 1.8278 | 0.0000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3580 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2540 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.2834 |
| predicted_H | 0.6770 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0490 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.4780 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0358 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3580 | 0.1825 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2540 | 0.1295 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.2834 | 2.2834 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.6770 | 0.3451 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0490 | 0.0250 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.4780 | 0.7534 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0358 | 1.0358 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 48 |
| Season rows before report date | 48 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 48 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 18 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.89 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 19 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 10 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | S |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_MIL@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 695243 |
| playerID | 695243 |
| playerName | Mason Miller |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 48.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.182 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.183 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 26.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 47.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.2 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 74.02468275 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.2185 |
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | TB 5 - 1 OAK | TB | 0.660 | scoring_simulation.final_score | True |
| Simulation draw | TB 5 - 1 OAK | TB | - | organic_score_same_winner | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.9200; empirical=0.5455; weight=0.5000; final=0.7328 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=-4; abs=4; home delta=-0.0333; away delta=0.0333 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=1.6500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=-2.0958; recent edge=-1.2000; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 9.7000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.6600 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_score_same_winner |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 7 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 6.026 | 4.019 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 6 | 4 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 5 | 1 | 0.6600 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis |
| 4 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 1 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 5 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 1 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 6 | capped_target | 5 | 1 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 7 | simulation_result | 5 | 1 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.45794439973333345,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.4301587301587302,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.5101587301587301,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.027785669574603267,
"confidence": 0.6322969960000001,
"factors": {
"environmental": 0.9996,
"pitcher_form": 1.1,
"team_form": 0.94,
"situational": 1.03,
"combined": 1.0645939920000003
},
"prediction": "normal_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 6,
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 9.7,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 9.7,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 6,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
}{
"method": "historical_slate_bin_shrinkage",
"sample_size": 473,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 0,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 0,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 0,
"global_sample_size": 473,
"bucket_scope": "global_fallback",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5455,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5438,
"sample_weight": 0.6,
"prior_strength": 18.0,
"reliability": 0.9633,
"confidence_cap": 0.78,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.8613,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.6537,
"predicted_side": "away"
}{
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.92,
"sample_size": 473,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5455,
"empirical_weight": 0.5,
"blended_confidence": 0.73275,
"published_confidence": 0.66,
"published_after_governors": true
}{
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 1,
"sample_weight": 0.0167,
"home_net_margin": -4.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
"home_average_margin": -4.0,
"home_run_delta": -0.0333,
"away_run_delta": 0.0333,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -4.0
}
]
}{
"applied": true,
"home": {
"team": "OAK",
"games": 118,
"wins": 47,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.3983050847457627,
"runs_scored": 510,
"runs_allowed": 674,
"run_differential": -164,
"run_differential_per_game": -1.3898305084745763,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "TB",
"games": 117,
"wins": 71,
"losses": 46,
"win_pct": 0.6068376068376068,
"runs_scored": 519,
"runs_allowed": 473,
"run_differential": 46,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.39316239316239315,
"available": true
},
"run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.783,
"win_pct_edge": -0.2085,
"quality_edge": -1.7823,
"season_quality_edge": -2.0958,
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
"recent_window": 10,
"season_quality_edge": -2.0958,
"recent_quality_edge": -1.2,
"season_weight": 0.65,
"recent_weight": 0.35,
"recent_reliability": 1.0,
"alignment": "aligned",
"blended_quality_edge": -1.7823
},
"margin_adjustment": -2.8517,
"reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
"margin_adjustment_policy": {
"adjustment": -2.8517,
"cap": 4.0,
"scale": 1.6,
"quality_edge": -1.7823,
"season_quality_edge": -2.0958,
"recent_alignment": "aligned",
"large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
"method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 9.934,
"home_runs": 0.394,
"home_win_probability": 0.08
}
}{
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 1,
"away_runs": 5,
"probability": 0.03869751561216095
},
{
"home_runs": 1,
"away_runs": 6,
"probability": 0.038248244110378686
},
{
"home_runs": 1,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.03499261662894579
},
{
"home_runs": 2,
"away_runs": 5,
"probability": 0.034023730543496826
},
{
"home_runs": 1,
"away_runs": 7,
"probability": 0.03378793685077707
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.22468992024445653,
"1": 0.2841892869547914,
"2": 0.2498656456297085,
"3": 0.15271444861875913,
"4": 0.06488262951177581,
"5": 0.019162470090058836,
"6": 0.003934135116488656,
"7": 0.0005614638339611592
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.0267768561101868,
"1": 0.046406545230515024,
"2": 0.07188208151595554,
"3": 0.0995139131150904,
"4": 0.12313137136134335,
"5": 0.1361681012919988,
"6": 0.13458721305164184,
"7": 0.11889236646753693,
"8": 0.0938698006998822,
"9": 0.06623988550645894,
"10": 0.04177678387710678,
"11": 0.023548984656301016,
"12": 0.01186399959000385,
"13": 0.005342097525978607
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
"variance_multiplier": 1.65,
"variance_floor": 2.75,
"roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"predicted_team": "TB",
"opponent_team": "OAK",
"h2h_net_margin": 4,
"recent_h2h": [
{
"date": "2026-08-10",
"predicted_team_runs": 10,
"opponent_runs": 6,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 4,
"winner": "TB"
}
],
"prediction_memory": {
"available": true,
"reason": "verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available",
"verification_policy": "pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final",
"verified_outcome_count": 1,
"consecutive_same_pick_count": 1,
"same_pick_actual_loss_count": 0,
"same_pick_blowout_loss_count": 0,
"prior_predictions": [
{
"date": "20260810",
"away": "TB",
"home": "OAK",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "TB",
"actual_winner": "TB",
"actual_margin": 4,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.6599999999999999,
"artifact": "20260810_TB@OAK.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
}
]
},
"guardrail_predicted_team": "TB",
"guardrail_opponent_team": "OAK",
"output_pre_simulation_winner": "TB",
"output_opponent_team": "OAK",
"simulation_score_winner": "TB",
"final_score_winner": "TB",
"pre_simulation_winner": "TB",
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false
},
"final_prediction_sync": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 1,
"score_text": "TB 5 - 1 OAK",
"winner": "TB"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 1,
"score_text": "TB 5 - 1 OAK",
"winner": "TB"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": true,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.148,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.55,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 1,
"winner": "TB",
"model_winner": "TB",
"simulation_winner": "TB",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": true,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 4,
"simulation_margin": 4,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 1
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 1
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 4,
"final_margin": 4,
"winner_quality_edge": 1.7823,
"winner": "TB",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"policy": "recency_uncertainty_shrinkage_v2",
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"home": {
"team": "OAK",
"games": 118,
"wins": 47,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.3983050847457627,
"runs_scored": 510,
"runs_allowed": 674,
"run_differential": -164,
"run_differential_per_game": -1.3898305084745763,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "TB",
"games": 117,
"wins": 71,
"losses": 46,
"win_pct": 0.6068376068376068,
"runs_scored": 519,
"runs_allowed": 473,
"run_differential": 46,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.39316239316239315,
"available": true
}
}
}{
"applied": true,
"raw_margin": -9.5396,
"final_margin": -4.25,
"margin_cap": 4.25,
"season_quality_edge": 1.7823,
"reason": "large target margin capped because season quality evidence did not justify a decisive prediction",
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 7.289,
"home_runs": 3.039
}
}{
"applied": true,
"raw_confidence": 0.73275,
"final_confidence": 0.66,
"confidence_cap": 0.66,
"score_gap": 4.25,
"calibration_sample_size": 473,
"calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5455,
"calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5438,
"calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
"season_quality_edge": 1.7823,
"reasons": [
"unvalidated probabilities are capped for production display",
"local calibration sample has at least 30 games",
"local calibration sample has at least 60 games",
"season run-differential edge supports the pick",
"win-probability calibration cap enforced"
]
}{
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 1,
"score_text": "TB 5 - 1 OAK",
"winner": "TB"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 1,
"score_text": "TB 5 - 1 OAK",
"winner": "TB"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": true,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.148,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.55,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 1,
"winner": "TB",
"model_winner": "TB",
"simulation_winner": "TB",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": true,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 4,
"simulation_margin": 4,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 1
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 1
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 4,
"final_margin": 4,
"winner_quality_edge": 1.7823,
"winner": "TB",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}{
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 1,
"confidence": 0.66,
"home_win_probability": 0.33999999999999997,
"away_win_probability": 0.66,
"predicted_score_text": "TB 5 - 1 OAK",
"embedded_savant_score_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded temporal Savant features",
"feature_contract": {
"training_grain": "one player-game row after collapsing granular at-bat rows",
"temporal_rule": "all sl_/ab_/sv_ model features are shifted before the predicted game",
"hitter_signals": [
"xwoba",
"xba",
"xslg",
"barrel_batted_rate",
"hard_hit_percent",
"bat_speed",
"launch_quality",
"walk_rate",
"strikeout_rate"
],
"pitcher_signals": [
"xwoba_allowed",
"barrel_allowed",
"hard_hit_allowed",
"whiff_rate",
"command_score",
"movement_score",
"faced_est_woba",
"faced_strikeout_rate"
]
},
"away": {
"team": "TB",
"original_runs": 5,
"run_delta": 0.0442,
"adjusted_runs": 5,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 36.0,
"quality": 0.010103197760224527,
"contact": 0.08322176996950054,
"power": -0.10461542793817252,
"discipline": 0.4592386519615219,
"xwoba": 0.31549999999999995,
"recent_xwoba": 0.31549999999999995,
"barrel": 6.838888888888889,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.18546199791688525,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.30492181984575,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.17907069931522043,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "670764",
"player_name": "Taylor Walls",
"position": "SS",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -1.2854566310766005,
"contact": -1.576300966854257,
"power": -1.5306600724087196,
"discipline": 0.21340062111801225,
"xwoba": 0.247,
"recent_xwoba": 0.247,
"barrel": 2.4,
"ab_hard_contact": -1.2455824005553429,
"ab_bat_speed": 62.8438291005291,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.24933333333333332,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "691406",
"player_name": "Junior Caminero",
"position": "3B",
"weight": 5.0,
"quality": 1.163995758821739,
"contact": 1.2439526426468768,
"power": 1.4865558339112568,
"discipline": 0.6190672877846788,
"xwoba": 0.373,
"recent_xwoba": 0.373,
"barrel": 13.7,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.745211916320385,
"ab_bat_speed": 78.56901781746032,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.19402380952380952,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "802415",
"player_name": "Chandler Simpson",
"position": "LF",
"weight": 5.0,
"quality": -0.9214824374926385,
"contact": -0.6700670967947019,
"power": -1.541864423612945,
"discipline": 0.4469644620389961,
"xwoba": 0.264,
"recent_xwoba": 0.264,
"barrel": 0.0,
"ab_hard_contact": -1.5450979960684177,
"ab_bat_speed": 62.177720370370366,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.08526949241234956,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "656775",
"player_name": "Cedric Mullins",
"position": "CF",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.899570864889686,
"contact": -1.163908130290298,
"power": -0.9014159272811592,
"discipline": 0.05005608330288615,
"xwoba": 0.253,
"recent_xwoba": 0.253,
"barrel": 3.8,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.8542233075279393,
"ab_bat_speed": 67.31136741363213,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2203921568627451,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "666018",
"player_name": "Jonathan Aranda",
"position": "1B",
"weight": 5.0,
"quality": 0.6878910938848286,
"contact": 0.7958589930976426,
"power": 0.7384753568910862,
"discipline": 0.4014657966831879,
"xwoba": 0.354,
"recent_xwoba": 0.354,
"barrel": 10.0,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.8277928521074468,
"ab_bat_speed": 68.97055551547218,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.22205387205387206,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "686930",
"player_name": "Mason Barnett",
"quality": -0.06738777002218788,
"contact": -0.2872428719677249,
"command": -0.19576984126984137,
"movement": -0.19786636867701318,
"xwoba": 0.323,
"whiff": 24.2,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2673184860119048,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.86666666666667,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.23333333333333334,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006702420300892518
}
},
"home": {
"team": "OAK",
"original_runs": 1,
"run_delta": 0.1287,
"adjusted_runs": 1,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 33.0,
"quality": -0.17453847853862697,
"contact": -0.14291716863920575,
"power": -0.36153189625420035,
"discipline": -0.08096208717314307,
"xwoba": 0.2983939393939394,
"recent_xwoba": 0.2983939393939394,
"barrel": 5.303030303030302,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.2639077663538389,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.08116508098516,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.17365686099835154,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "805779",
"player_name": "Jacob Wilson",
"position": "SS",
"weight": 5.0,
"quality": -0.5168119810174903,
"contact": -0.3119647890867201,
"power": -0.9429168681338514,
"discipline": 0.10474086689374208,
"xwoba": 0.286,
"recent_xwoba": 0.286,
"barrel": 2.6,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.5253849817246358,
"ab_bat_speed": 63.00169623015873,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.10806451612903226,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "643446",
"player_name": "Jeff McNeil",
"position": "1B",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.2870737321098108,
"contact": -0.02351693723192529,
"power": -0.8802275360091776,
"discipline": 0.44798162823350196,
"xwoba": 0.302,
"recent_xwoba": 0.302,
"barrel": 1.1,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.6441697678025913,
"ab_bat_speed": 67.47676652642315,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.13582375478927203,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "680869",
"player_name": "Zack Gelof",
"position": "LF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": -0.3255691928822459,
"contact": -0.3364974427514119,
"power": -0.08612766903506433,
"discipline": -0.5617691177452749,
"xwoba": 0.289,
"recent_xwoba": 0.289,
"barrel": 6.6,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.006208524060628426,
"ab_bat_speed": 72.04159790764791,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2480030721966206,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "622268",
"player_name": "Donovan Walton",
"position": "2B",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.15710333747817937,
"contact": -0.11544739603174639,
"power": -0.5286410101109379,
"discipline": 0.3140456427630339,
"xwoba": 0.31,
"recent_xwoba": 0.31,
"barrel": 4.0,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.8059630593616054,
"ab_bat_speed": 63.353265993266,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.20454545454545456,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "641680",
"player_name": "Jonah Heim",
"position": "C",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": -0.2362406550004653,
"contact": -0.35287538573747723,
"power": -0.1846141944433491,
"discipline": -0.17050414078674955,
"xwoba": 0.299,
"recent_xwoba": 0.299,
"barrel": 7.3,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.4305696031526909,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.2673826984127,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.1988095238095238,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "607259",
"player_name": "Nick Martinez",
"quality": -0.3358851748934369,
"contact": 0.0680140995468779,
"command": -0.7639126984126985,
"movement": -0.9540904619827584,
"xwoba": 0.329,
"whiff": 17.5,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2673184860119048,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.86666666666667,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.23333333333333334,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006702420300892518
}
}
},
"fundamental_edge_target_review": {
"applied": false,
"method": "post_score_adjustment_fundamental_edge_review_v1",
"previous_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 1,
"winner_side": "away"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 1,
"winner_side": "away"
},
"signals": {
"season_quality_edge_home_minus_away": -1.7823,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.55,
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.148,
"composite_home_edge": -2.4134,
"existing_home_win_probability": 0.3463,
"refreshed_home_win_probability": 0.3,
"winner_support_before_review": 2.4134
},
"reasons": [
"target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile"
]
},
"confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 1,
"predicted_score_text": "TB 5 - 1 OAK",
"confidence": 0.66,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 1,
"score_text": "TB 5 - 1 OAK",
"winner": "TB"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 1,
"score_text": "TB 5 - 1 OAK",
"winner": "TB"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": true,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.148,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.55,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 1,
"winner": "TB",
"model_winner": "TB",
"simulation_winner": "TB",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": true,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 4,
"simulation_margin": 4,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 1
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 1
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 4,
"final_margin": 4,
"winner_quality_edge": 1.7823,
"winner": "TB",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
},
"decision_profile": {
"method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
"winner": "TB",
"display_confidence": 0.66,
"internal_signal_score": 0.72,
"internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
"model_pick_probability": 0.66,
"confidence_compression_detected": false,
"moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
"betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
"market_context": null,
"margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
"totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
"winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
"signals": {
"final_margin": 4,
"winner_quality_edge": 1.7823,
"winner_recent_form_edge": 1.2,
"winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.148,
"winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
"blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
"high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.125,
"low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.375,
"total_runs_spread": {
"min": 5,
"median": 7,
"max": 11,
"range": 6
}
},
"interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away TB | True | 0.9961 | 0.9961 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home OAK | True | 0.9955 | 0.9955 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3B | Junior Caminero | 11 | 1.0994 | 1.3255 | neutral | 0.3730 | 0.2740 | 0.5130 | 13.70 | 50.70 | 93 | 9.10 | 24.30 | 18.60 | 12.50 | -0.4000 |
| DH | Yandy Díaz | 63 | 1.0617 | 0.8226 | neutral | 0.3520 | 0.2840 | 0.4390 | 6.80 | 47.80 | 90.90 | 6.30 | 14.60 | 14.70 | 8.70 | -0.1714 |
| C | Liam Hicks | 49 | 0.9752 | -0.3300 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3110 | 0.2490 | 0.3480 | 3.80 | 28.30 | 85 | 14.30 | 10.40 | 9.10 | 10 | -1.2000 |
| 1B | Jonathan Aranda | 92 | 1.0709 | 0.9452 | neutral | 0.3540 | 0.2640 | 0.4510 | 10 | 44.80 | 90.80 | 13.90 | 21.50 | 22.90 | 11.10 | 0 |
| LF | Chandler Simpson | 139 | 0.9218 | -1.0427 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2640 | 0.2570 | 0.2950 | 0 | 14 | 84 | 1.70 | 10.60 | 8.90 | 4.50 | -1.2286 |
| RF | Victor Mesa Jr. | 157 | 1.0200 | 0.2663 | neutral | 0.3200 | 0.2340 | 0.4330 | 12.70 | 40 | 89.30 | 21.50 | 25.50 | 23.80 | 9.10 | 0.1429 |
| CF | Cedric Mullins | 176 | 0.9215 | -1.0463 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2530 | 0.1800 | 0.2970 | 3.80 | 31.30 | 88 | 27.10 | 23.10 | 20.40 | 8.20 | -0.9714 |
| SS | Taylor Walls | 73 | 0.9048 | -1.2700 | neutral | 0.2470 | 0.1850 | 0.2490 | 2.40 | 21.50 | 85.40 | 19.80 | 23.80 | 25.60 | 11 | -0.6000 |
| 2B | Richie Palacios | 183 | 0.9898 | -0.1358 | neutral | 0.3100 | 0.2430 | 0.3350 | 4.30 | 27.90 | 86.20 | 12.50 | 22 | 18.60 | 12.20 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LF | Zack Gelof | 74 | 0.9708 | -0.3890 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2890 | 0.2250 | 0.3750 | 6.60 | 41.30 | 88.80 | 15.70 | 27.50 | 25.10 | 5.70 | -1.6857 |
| DH | Carlos Cortes | 505 | 1.0297 | 0.3960 | neutral | 0.3250 | 0.2590 | 0.4010 | 7.20 | 38.80 | 89.80 | 8.30 | 21.10 | 14.80 | 9.10 | -0.1429 |
| 1B | Jeff McNeil | 339 | 0.9937 | -0.0843 | neutral | 0.3020 | 0.2690 | 0.3520 | 1.10 | 31.40 | 86.20 | 14 | 16.10 | 12.20 | 7.10 | 0.4571 |
| CF | Henry Bolte | 145 | 1.0011 | 0.0147 | neutral | 0.3020 | 0.2300 | 0.3600 | 7.80 | 48.20 | 90.80 | 1.80 | 33.60 | 28.40 | 6.90 | -0.2571 |
| 2B | Donovan Walton | 234 | 0.9940 | -0.0799 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3100 | 0.2470 | 0.3660 | 4 | 34 | 87.30 | 10.50 | 24.30 | 17.90 | 10 | -1.4000 |
| SS | Jacob Wilson | 245 | 0.9653 | -0.4622 | neutral | 0.2860 | 0.2660 | 0.3510 | 2.60 | 27.60 | 84.10 | 7.50 | 14.90 | 11.70 | 3.70 | -0.4857 |
| C | Jonah Heim | 524 | 0.9956 | -0.0580 | neutral | 0.2990 | 0.2380 | 0.3900 | 7.30 | 32 | 87.50 | 14.30 | 24.20 | 19.60 | 6.40 | -0.0857 |
| RF | Lawrence Butler | 615 | 1.0146 | 0.1953 | neutral | 0.3060 | 0.2340 | 0.3570 | 6.90 | 44.70 | 89.30 | 5.10 | 27.40 | 25.60 | 11.60 | 0.8000 |
| 3B | Tommy White | 525 | 0.9946 | -0.0721 | positive_batter_regression | 0.2820 | 0.2730 | 0.3550 | 4.40 | 33.80 | 85.60 | 4.10 | 21.30 | 17.60 | 2.40 | 1.0571 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 0.9955,
"raw_average_factor": 0.9955,
"team_espn_average_rank": 356.22,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "680869",
"player_name": "Zack Gelof",
"offense_factor": 0.9708,
"quality_score": -0.389,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "680869",
"espn_id": 4414531,
"player_name": "Zack Gelof",
"team": "ATH",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 74,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 74,
"gp_value": 68.0,
"gp_rank": 277,
"ab_value": 231.0,
"ab_rank": 243,
"r_value": 43.0,
"r_rank": 149,
"h_value": 64.0,
"h_rank": 202,
"avg_value": 0.2770562,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 12.0,
"2b_rank": 191,
"3b_value": 1.0,
"3b_rank": 114,
"hr_value": 12.0,
"hr_rank": 124,
"rbi_value": 31.0,
"rbi_rank": 208,
"tb_value": 114.0,
"tb_rank": 993,
"bb_value": 14.0,
"bb_rank": 315,
"so_value": 63.0,
"so_rank": 202,
"sb_value": 8.0,
"sb_rank": 91,
"obp_value": 0.3293172,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.4935064,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.8228236,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": 2.32,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 237.0,
"k_percent": 25.1,
"bb_percent": 5.7,
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],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away TB | True | 14 | -0.3064 | 1 | 1.0260 | 0.9080 | 0.9000 | 0.9916 | negative_pitcher_regression | 0.3290 | 0.2950 | 14.10 | 3.90 | 17.50 | 7.30 | 32.90 | |
| Home OAK | True | 475 | -0.0726 | 0.4500 | 1.0062 | 1.0026 | 1.0243 | 1.0270 | neutral | 0.3230 | 0.3500 | 24.50 | 11.60 | 24.20 | 9.80 | 38 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away TB | True | None | 79 | 86.95 | 2191 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1660 | |
| Home OAK | True | None | 27 | 88.92 | 2428 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0554 |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 1.0028 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 1.0260 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | 0.2338 |
{
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"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
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"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": -0.0521,
"regression_edge": 0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": -0.3429,
"barrel_edge": -0.6,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0429,
"whiff_edge": -0.1857,
"bb_edge": -0.675,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0554
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "686930",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 27,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 27,
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"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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},
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{
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.9224,
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"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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"release_pos_z": 0.0,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
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"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0554,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.3957,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.0726,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0062,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0026,
"walk_factor": 1.0243,
"homer_factor": 1.027,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.027,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "686930",
"espn_id": 4620704,
"player_name": "Mason Barnett",
"team": "ATH",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 475,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 475,
"gp_value": 16.0,
"gp_rank": 394,
"gs_value": 2.0,
"gs_rank": 253,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 5.5588,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 1.0,
"w_rank": 368,
"l_value": 2.0,
"l_rank": 279,
"sv_value": 2.0,
"sv_rank": 75,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 34.0,
"ip_rank": 364,
"h_value": 30.0,
"h_rank": 359,
"er_value": 21.0,
"er_rank": 243,
"hr_value": 8.0,
"hr_rank": 171,
"bb_value": 17.0,
"bb_rank": 279,
"k_value": 36.0,
"k_rank": 328,
"k_per_9_value": 9.529412,
"k_per_9_rank": 24,
"whip_value": 1.3823,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.0,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "607259",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 450.0,
"k_percent": 14.1,
"bb_percent": 3.9,
"woba": 0.295,
"xwoba": 0.329,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.9,
"avg_best_speed": 75.5489,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.2696,
"whiff_percent": 17.5,
"swing_percent": 50.8
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.0386,
"command_and_miss": -0.6707,
"regression_edge": -0.9714,
"xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
"barrel_edge": -0.0444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6857,
"whiff_edge": -1.1429,
"bb_edge": 1.25,
"pitch_design_score": -0.166
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "607259",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 79,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 79,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 86.94747971049273,
"release_spin_rate": 2190.7654820997873,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 79,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 86.94747971049273,
"release_spin_rate": 2190.7654820997873,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 86.9475,
"release_spin_rate": 2190.7655,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.166,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.1857,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.3064,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.026,
"strikeout_factor": 0.908,
"walk_factor": 0.9,
"homer_factor": 0.9916,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.034,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "607259",
"espn_id": 33372,
"player_name": "Nick Martinez",
"team": "TB",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 14,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 14,
"gp_value": 22.0,
"gp_rank": 295,
"gs_value": 22.0,
"gs_rank": 40,
"qs_value": 11.0,
"qs_rank": 27,
"era_value": 2.6511,
"era_rank": 9.0,
"w_value": 11.0,
"w_rank": 9,
"l_value": 3.0,
"l_rank": 192,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 129.0,
"ip_rank": 30,
"h_value": 122.0,
"h_rank": 24,
"er_value": 38.0,
"er_rank": 120,
"hr_value": 15.0,
"hr_rank": 52,
"bb_value": 20.0,
"bb_rank": 230,
"k_value": 73.0,
"k_rank": 132,
"k_per_9_value": 5.0930233,
"k_per_9_rank": 118,
"whip_value": 1.1007,
"whip_rank": 13.0,
"war_value": 3.38,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 1.0028,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 1.026,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": 0.2338
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 8.1146,
"home_runs": 1.8576
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 8.1372,
"home_runs": 1.9059,
"home_win_probability": 0.08
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away TB | 8-2 | 0.800 | 4.80 | 4.10 | 7 | 7W | average | average |
| Home OAK | 2-8 | 0.200 | 3.60 | 7.50 | -39 | 1L | average | weak |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away TB | 71-46 | 0.607 | 46 | 0.393 | True |
| Home OAK | 47-71 | 0.398 | -164 | -1.390 | True |
| Signal | - | - | -1.783 | -1.782 | applied=True |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | TB @ OAK | 10 - 6 | TB | 4 | blowout |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target TB | - | - | 5 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target OAK | - | - | 1 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized TB | 36 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| Player finalized OAK | 33 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Player model fractional TB | 33.95 | 8.71 | 4.79 | 1.21 | 4.80 | 3.43 | 6.18 |
| Player model fractional OAK | 31.59 | 6.99 | 3.32 | 0.67 | 2.91 | 2.10 | 6.74 |
| Simulation box TB | 36 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 10 |
| Simulation box OAK | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away TB | Starter | Nick Martinez | 6 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3.17 | 1.08 | True |
| Away TB | Middle Reliever | Bryan Baker | 1.10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.51 | 1.01 | True |
| Away TB | Middle Reliever | Kevin Kelly | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.67 | 0.83 | True |
| Away TB | Middle Reliever | Garrett Cleavinger | 0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.27 | 1.21 | True |
| Home OAK | Starter | Mason Barnett | 4.10 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 6.31 | 1.49 | True |
| Home OAK | Middle Reliever | Luis Medina | 1.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.30 | 1.43 | True |
| Home OAK | Middle Reliever | Elvis Alvarado | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2.98 | 1.23 | True |
| Home OAK | Middle Reliever | Hogan Harris | 1.10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5.58 | 1.85 | True |
| Home OAK | Middle Reliever | José Suarez | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.59 | 1.61 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away | TB | batter | RF | Victor Mesa Jr. | better | 10 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 3 | predicted_RBI | 2.6000 | boost | better |
| home | OAK | batter | RF | Lawrence Butler | worse | 11 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 9 | predicted_SO | 2.1250 | boost | worse |
| home | OAK | batter | SS | Jacob Wilson | worse | 11 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | predicted_AB | -2.0700 | deboost | worse |
| away | TB | batter | C | Liam Hicks | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 | predicted_SO | 1.6260 | boost | worse |
| away | TB | batter | 1B | Jonathan Aranda | worse | 9 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 6 | predicted_H | -1.2900 | deboost | worse |
| home | OAK | batter | 3B | Tommy White | worse | 9 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 7 | predicted_AB | -1.2400 | deboost | worse |
| home | OAK | batter | 2B | Donovan Walton | worse | 10 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 8 | predicted_AB | 1.2220 | boost | better |
| away | TB | batter | 3B | Junior Caminero | worse | 10 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 7 | predicted_SO | 1.1970 | boost | worse |
| away | TB | batter | 2B | Richie Palacios | worse | 11 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 7 | predicted_AB | 1.1650 | boost | better |
| away | TB | batter | DH | Yandy Díaz | better | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 3 | predicted_AB | -1.1600 | deboost | worse |
| away | TB | batter | SS | Taylor Walls | worse | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | predicted_SO | 1.0560 | boost | worse |
| home | OAK | pitcher | Starter | Mason Barnett | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.9000 | deboost | worse |
| home | OAK | batter | CF | Henry Bolte | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 8 | predicted_H | -0.8890 | deboost | worse |
| home | OAK | batter | LF | Zack Gelof | worse | 9 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | predicted_HR | 0.8120 | boost | better |
| home | OAK | batter | 1B | Jeff McNeil | worse | 8 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 6 | predicted_H | -0.8040 | deboost | worse |
| home | OAK | batter | C | Jonah Heim | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 8 | predicted_SO | -0.7360 | deboost | better |
| home | OAK | batter | DH | Carlos Cortes | worse | 11 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 7 | predicted_BB | 0.7180 | boost | better |
| away | TB | batter | LF | Chandler Simpson | worse | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | predicted_SO | 0.6360 | boost | worse |
| away | TB | batter | CF | Cedric Mullins | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 10 | predicted_AB | 0.5510 | boost | better |
| away | TB | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Garrett Cleavinger | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.4667 | deboost | worse |
| home | OAK | pitcher | Middle Reliever | José Suarez | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.3333 | boost | better |
| home | OAK | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Luis Medina | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.2333 | deboost | worse |
| away | TB | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Bryan Baker | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.1000 | boost | better |
| home | OAK | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Hogan Harris | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.1000 | boost | better |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Nick Martinez |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.3064 |
| ESPN Rank | 14 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.1660 |
| Avg Velo | 86.9475 |
| Avg Spin | 2190.7655 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 6 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 3 |
| Pre BB | 3 |
| Pre SO | 4 |
| Season ERA | 2.6512 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1008 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.8640 |
| Recent Avg IP | 5.8000 |
| Last Start IP | 5.2000 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "TB",
"games": 126,
"wins": 75,
"losses": 51,
"win_pct": 0.5952,
"runs_scored": 546.0,
"runs_allowed": 506.0,
"run_differential": 40.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3175,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.3333,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.0159,
"offense_index": 0.9648,
"defense_index": 1.1185,
"current_streak": "W7",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
"run_differential": 7.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2248
},
"opponent": {
"team": "OAK",
"games": 124,
"wins": 49,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.3952,
"runs_scored": 546.0,
"runs_allowed": 712.0,
"run_differential": -166.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -1.3387,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4032,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7419,
"offense_index": 0.9803,
"defense_index": 0.7822,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 7.5,
"run_differential": -39.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.358
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.5828,
"offense_edge": -0.0352,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0197,
"defense_strength": 0.1185,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2178,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.6
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0277,
"run_prevention": 0.9559,
"strikeout": 1.0191
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "607259",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "607259",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 450.0,
"k_percent": 14.1,
"bb_percent": 3.9,
"woba": 0.295,
"xwoba": 0.329,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.9,
"avg_best_speed": 75.5489,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.2696,
"whiff_percent": 17.5,
"swing_percent": 50.8
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.0386,
"command_and_miss": -0.6707,
"regression_edge": -0.9714,
"xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
"barrel_edge": -0.0444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6857,
"whiff_edge": -1.1429,
"bb_edge": 1.25,
"pitch_design_score": -0.166
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "607259",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 79,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 79,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 86.94747971049273,
"release_spin_rate": 2190.7654820997873,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 79,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 86.94747971049273,
"release_spin_rate": 2190.7654820997873,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 86.9475,
"release_spin_rate": 2190.7655,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.166,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.1857,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.3064,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.026,
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}{
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"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_mix": [
{
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}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
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},
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}{
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}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Bryan Baker |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.4145 |
| ESPN Rank | 59 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 1.5540 |
| Season WHIP | 0.8417 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
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"wins": 75,
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},
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},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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"player_name": "",
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},
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},
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},
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}
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}
}{
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"OPS": 0,
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},
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},
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}{
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}{
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
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}
}{
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"form": 1.0,
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.278,
"final": 0.1395,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"form": 0.639,
"final": 0.3207,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.376,
"final": 0.1887,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"form": 1.174,
"final": 0.5892,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"form": 0.142,
"final": 0.0713,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.5052,
"final": 2.5052,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.0149,
"final": 1.0149,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Kevin Kelly |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0506 |
| ESPN Rank | 66 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 1.9636 |
| Season WHIP | 0.8182 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "TB",
"games": 126,
"wins": 75,
"losses": 51,
"win_pct": 0.5952,
"runs_scored": 546.0,
"runs_allowed": 506.0,
"run_differential": 40.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3175,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.3333,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.0159,
"offense_index": 0.9648,
"defense_index": 1.1185,
"current_streak": "W7",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
"run_differential": 7.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2248
},
"opponent": {
"team": "OAK",
"games": 124,
"wins": 49,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.3952,
"runs_scored": 546.0,
"runs_allowed": 712.0,
"run_differential": -166.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -1.3387,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4032,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7419,
"offense_index": 0.9803,
"defense_index": 0.7822,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 7.5,
"run_differential": -39.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.358
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": -0.0352,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0197,
"defense_strength": 0.1185,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2178,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.6
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0277,
"run_prevention": 0.9559,
"strikeout": 1.0191
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "687330",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "687330",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 176.0,
"k_percent": 21.5,
"bb_percent": 4.5,
"woba": 0.233,
"xwoba": 0.295,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 44.8,
"avg_best_speed": 78.5958,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.7433,
"whiff_percent": 19.4,
"swing_percent": 48.0
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": -0.13,
"regression_edge": -1.7714,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4571,
"barrel_edge": 0.1778,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.0143,
"whiff_edge": -0.8714,
"bb_edge": 1.1,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "687330",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.0506,
"sample_weight": 0.704,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9957,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9726,
"walk_factor": 0.938,
"homer_factor": 1.0089,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.062,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "687330",
"espn_id": 5001153,
"player_name": "Kevin Kelly",
"team": "TB",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 66,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
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"gp_value": 51.0,
"gp_rank": 30,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 1.9636,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 5.0,
"w_rank": 108,
"l_value": 3.0,
"l_rank": 192,
"sv_value": 4.0,
"sv_rank": 45,
"hld_value": 24.0,
"hld_rank": 2,
"ip_value": 55.0,
"ip_rank": 197,
"h_value": 36.0,
"h_rank": 291,
"er_value": 12.0,
"er_rank": 412,
"hr_value": 4.0,
"hr_rank": 320,
"bb_value": 9.0,
"bb_rank": 464,
"k_value": 43.0,
"k_rank": 282,
"k_per_9_value": 7.0363636,
"k_per_9_rank": 38,
"whip_value": 0.8181,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 1.91,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.997,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.997,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 0.9564,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 1.0063,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 0.9807,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 0,
"H": 3,
"BB": 1,
"SO": 11,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 0.375,
"K9": 9.28125,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "687330",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.999,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6875,
"prior_weight": 0.3125
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "687330",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 51,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
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"totals": {
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"R": 0.0,
"H": 2.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 15.0,
"Pitches": 34.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.4,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 0.2,
"HR": 0.0,
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"Pitches": 6.8
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.6923,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.46154,
"BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
"SO_per_IP": 0.23077,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
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"ER": 0.0,
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"H": 3.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 11.0,
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"Pitches": 115.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
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},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.28125,
"BB_per_IP": 0.09375,
"SO_per_IP": 1.03125,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 51,
"totals": {
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"ER": 12.0,
"R": 14.0,
"H": 36.0,
"BB": 9.0,
"SO": 43.0,
"HR": 4.0,
"BF": 203.0,
"Pitches": 715.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.2353,
"R": 0.2745,
"H": 0.7059,
"BB": 0.1765,
"SO": 0.8431,
"HR": 0.0784,
"BF": 3.9804,
"Pitches": 14.0196
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.8182,
"ER_per_IP": 0.21818,
"H_per_IP": 0.65455,
"BB_per_IP": 0.16364,
"SO_per_IP": 0.78182,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07273
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.186,
"predicted_H": 0.604,
"predicted_BB": 0.229,
"predicted_SO": 0.727,
"predicted_HR": 0.056,
"predicted_ERA": 1.6721,
"predicted_WHIP": 0.8335
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.482,
"form_weight": 0.518,
"form_reliability": 0.6875,
"form_shrinkage": {
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6875,
"prior_weight": 0.3125
},
"applied_metrics": {
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"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.186,
"final": 0.0963,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.604,
"final": 0.7949,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.229,
"final": 0.1186,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"form": 0.727,
"final": 0.8586,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"form": 0.056,
"final": 0.029,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.6721,
"final": 1.6721,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 0.8335,
"final": 0.8335,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Garrett Cleavinger |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.1399 |
| ESPN Rank | 242 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 0.2000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 3.2804 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2336 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "TB",
"games": 126,
"wins": 75,
"losses": 51,
"win_pct": 0.5952,
"runs_scored": 546.0,
"runs_allowed": 506.0,
"run_differential": 40.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3175,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.3333,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.0159,
"offense_index": 0.9648,
"defense_index": 1.1185,
"current_streak": "W7",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
"run_differential": 7.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2248
},
"opponent": {
"team": "OAK",
"games": 124,
"wins": 49,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.3952,
"runs_scored": 546.0,
"runs_allowed": 712.0,
"run_differential": -166.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -1.3387,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4032,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7419,
"offense_index": 0.9803,
"defense_index": 0.7822,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 7.5,
"run_differential": -39.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.358
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.5828,
"offense_edge": -0.0352,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0197,
"defense_strength": 0.1185,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2178,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.6
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0277,
"run_prevention": 0.9559,
"strikeout": 1.0191
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "664076",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "664076",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 32.0,
"bb_percent": 10.7,
"woba": 0.301,
"xwoba": 0.303,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 39.3,
"avg_best_speed": 73.5073,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.003,
"whiff_percent": 29.5,
"swing_percent": 47.1
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.1784,
"command_and_miss": 0.74,
"regression_edge": -0.0571,
"xwoba_edge": 0.2286,
"barrel_edge": -0.2667,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.2286,
"whiff_edge": 0.5714,
"bb_edge": -0.45,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "664076",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.1399,
"sample_weight": 0.488,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9881,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0385,
"walk_factor": 1.0176,
"homer_factor": 1.0115,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "664076",
"espn_id": 36429,
"player_name": "Garrett Cleavinger",
"team": "TB",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 242,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
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"gp_value": 42.0,
"gp_rank": 104,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 3.2803,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 4.0,
"w_rank": 147,
"l_value": 3.0,
"l_rank": 192,
"sv_value": 2.0,
"sv_rank": 75,
"hld_value": 22.0,
"hld_rank": 4,
"ip_value": 35.2,
"ip_rank": 345,
"h_value": 28.0,
"h_rank": 379,
"er_value": 13.0,
"er_rank": 387,
"hr_value": 5.0,
"hr_rank": 273,
"bb_value": 16.0,
"bb_rank": 299,
"k_value": 48.0,
"k_rank": 244,
"k_per_9_value": 12.11215,
"k_per_9_rank": 19,
"whip_value": 1.2336,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.47,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9942,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 0.9942,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 1.0086,
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},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 1.0056,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 1.0188,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 1,
"H": 3,
"BB": 3,
"SO": 10,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 1.173913043478261,
"WHIP": 0.782608695652174,
"K9": 11.73913043478261,
"HR9": 1.173913043478261,
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"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-08T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "664076",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 7.133,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5879,
"prior_weight": 0.4121
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "664076",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 42,
"reference_playing_time": 0.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 3.0,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 3.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 14.0,
"Pitches": 55.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 2.8,
"Pitches": 11.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.0,
"WHIP": 1.3333,
"ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
"H_per_IP": 1.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
"SO_per_IP": 1.0,
"HR_per_IP": 0.33333
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 7.2,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 3.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 10.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 30.0,
"Pitches": 129.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.1,
"R": 0.1,
"H": 0.3,
"BB": 0.3,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 3.0,
"Pitches": 12.9
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.1739,
"WHIP": 0.7826,
"ER_per_IP": 0.13043,
"H_per_IP": 0.3913,
"BB_per_IP": 0.3913,
"SO_per_IP": 1.30435,
"HR_per_IP": 0.13043
}
},
"season": {
"games": 42,
"totals": {
"IP": 35.2,
"ER": 13.0,
"R": 14.0,
"H": 28.0,
"BB": 16.0,
"SO": 48.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 150.0,
"Pitches": 612.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.3095,
"R": 0.3333,
"H": 0.6667,
"BB": 0.381,
"SO": 1.1429,
"HR": 0.119,
"BF": 3.5714,
"Pitches": 14.5714
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.2804,
"WHIP": 1.2336,
"ER_per_IP": 0.36449,
"H_per_IP": 0.78505,
"BB_per_IP": 0.4486,
"SO_per_IP": 1.34579,
"HR_per_IP": 0.14019
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_ER": 0.256,
"predicted_H": 0.592,
"predicted_BB": 0.261,
"predicted_SO": 0.767,
"predicted_HR": 0.136,
"predicted_ERA": 3.27,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2081
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5241,
"form_weight": 0.4759,
"form_reliability": 0.5879,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 7.133,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5879,
"prior_weight": 0.4121
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.2,
"form": 0.2,
"final": 0.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.256,
"final": 0.1218,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.592,
"final": 0.2817,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.261,
"final": 0.1242,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.767,
"final": 0.365,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.136,
"final": 0.0647,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.27,
"final": 3.27,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2081,
"final": 1.2081,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.154 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.172 | 0.000 | -0.172 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.002 | 0.000 | -0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.570 | 4.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.875 | 5.000 | 0.125 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | 0.000 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.293 | 0.200 | -0.293 | -0.200 |
| predicted_BB | 0.547 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.601 | 0.000 | 0.399 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.019 | 0.000 | -0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.960 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.134 | 1.000 | -1.134 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.450 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.302 | 1.000 | -0.302 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | 0.200 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.388 | 0.200 | -0.188 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.615 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.696 | 1.000 | -0.696 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.040 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.662 | 3.000 | -0.662 | -3.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.541 | 0.000 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.572 | 0.800 | -0.572 | -0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 0.803 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.795 | 0.000 | 1.205 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.8030 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.1970, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 1.0400 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0400, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2090 -> 0.2209 (boost 0.0119, better) | predicted_AB: 4.5700 -> 4.2182 (deboost -0.3518, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.8960 -> 0.9830 (boost 0.0870, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3319 -> 0.3246 (deboost -0.0073, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | predicted_AB: 4.2182 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.7818, better) | predicted_HR: 0.4224 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4224, worse) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.092 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6780 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3220, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_OBP: 0.3246 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0084, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.5671 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.3671, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_AB: 5.0000 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2000 -> 0.5671 (boost 0.3671, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3330 -> 0.3246 (deboost -0.0084, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "691406",
"player_name": "Junior Caminero",
"position": "3B",
"team": "TB",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.154,
"predicted_3B": 0.009,
"predicted_AB": 4.57,
"predicted_AVG": 0.209,
"predicted_BB": 0.547,
"predicted_H": 0.96,
"predicted_HR": 0.45,
"predicted_OBP": 0.322,
"predicted_R": 0.615,
"predicted_RBI": 1.04,
"predicted_SLG": 0.541,
"predicted_SO": 0.803
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1288,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 4.2182,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2209,
"predicted_BB": 0.5665,
"predicted_H": 0.9292,
"predicted_HBP": 0.03,
"predicted_HR": 0.4036,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3319,
"predicted_R": 0.618,
"predicted_RBI": 0.896,
"predicted_SLG": 0.54,
"predicted_SO": 0.8199
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.154,
"after": 0.1288,
"delta": -0.0252,
"percent_delta": -0.1636,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.57,
"after": 4.2182,
"delta": -0.3518,
"percent_delta": -0.077,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.209,
"after": 0.2209,
"delta": 0.0119,
"percent_delta": 0.0569,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.547,
"after": 0.5665,
"delta": 0.0195,
"percent_delta": 0.0356,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.96,
"after": 0.9292,
"delta": -0.0308,
"percent_delta": -0.0321,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.45,
"after": 0.4036,
"delta": -0.0464,
"percent_delta": -0.1031,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.322,
"after": 0.3319,
"delta": 0.0099,
"percent_delta": 0.0307,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.615,
"after": 0.618,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0049,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.04,
"after": 0.896,
"delta": -0.144,
"percent_delta": -0.1385,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.541,
"after": 0.54,
"delta": -0.001,
"percent_delta": -0.0018,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.803,
"after": 0.8199,
"delta": 0.0169,
"percent_delta": 0.021,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.209,
"after": 0.2209,
"delta": 0.0119,
"percent_delta": 0.0569,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.57,
"after": 4.2182,
"delta": -0.3518,
"percent_delta": -0.077,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 117
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1288,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 4.2182,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2324,
"predicted_BB": 0.5756,
"predicted_H": 0.9805,
"predicted_HBP": 0.03,
"predicted_HR": 0.4224,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3246,
"predicted_R": 0.678,
"predicted_RBI": 0.983,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5671,
"predicted_SO": 0.8067
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1288,
"after": 0.1288,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2182,
"after": 4.2182,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2209,
"after": 0.2324,
"delta": 0.0115,
"percent_delta": 0.0521,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5665,
"after": 0.5756,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0161,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9292,
"after": 0.9805,
"delta": 0.0513,
"percent_delta": 0.0552,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 0.03,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.4036,
"after": 0.4224,
"delta": 0.0188,
"percent_delta": 0.0466,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3319,
"after": 0.3246,
"delta": -0.0073,
"percent_delta": -0.022,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.618,
"after": 0.678,
"delta": 0.06,
"percent_delta": 0.0971,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.896,
"after": 0.983,
"delta": 0.087,
"percent_delta": 0.0971,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.54,
"after": 0.5671,
"delta": 0.0271,
"percent_delta": 0.0502,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8199,
"after": 0.8067,
"delta": -0.0132,
"percent_delta": -0.0161,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.896,
"after": 0.983,
"delta": 0.087,
"percent_delta": 0.0971,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3319,
"after": 0.3246,
"delta": -0.0073,
"percent_delta": -0.022,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.092",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1288,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1288,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2182,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.7818,
"percent_delta": 0.1853,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5756,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4244,
"percent_delta": 0.7373,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9805,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0195,
"percent_delta": 0.0199,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.03,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.4224,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4224,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.983,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.017,
"percent_delta": 0.0173,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8067,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1933,
"percent_delta": 0.2396,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 4.2182,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.7818,
"percent_delta": 0.1853,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.4224,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4224,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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{
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},
{
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},
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],
"summary": {
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"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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"stats": {
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
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},
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{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AVG": 0.2324,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
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"predicted_OBP": 0.3246,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5671,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
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},
{
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.615,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.04,
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},
{
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"before": 0.541,
"after": 0.5671,
"delta": 0.0261,
"percent_delta": 0.0482,
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},
{
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"before": 0.803,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.197,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 1.197,
"percent_delta": 1.4907,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.154 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.570 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.547 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.960 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.450 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.615 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 1.040 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.541 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.803 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.129 | -0.025 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.218 | -0.352 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.567 | 0.019 |
| predicted_H | 0.929 | -0.031 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.404 | -0.046 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.332 | 0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.618 | 0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.896 | -0.144 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.540 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.820 | 0.017 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.129 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.218 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.576 | 0.009 |
| predicted_H | 0.981 | 0.051 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.030 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.422 | 0.019 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.678 | 0.060 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.983 | 0.087 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.567 | 0.027 |
| predicted_SO | 0.807 | -0.013 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.092
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.129 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.782 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | -0.032 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.424 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.019 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.422 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.008 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.322 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.017 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.200 | -0.367 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.193 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 0.1111 | 0.2727 | 0.4444 | 0.1111 | 0.1111 | 0.2222 | 0.2222 | 0.2222 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 9.000 | 7.000 | 6.000 | 10.000 | 0.2368 | 0.3556 | 0.6316 | 0.2368 | 0.1316 | 0.2368 | 0.1579 | 0.2632 |
| season | 0.60 | 117 | - | 444.000 | 123.000 | 18.000 | 1.000 | 34.000 | 74.000 | 72.000 | 64.000 | 94.000 | 0.2770 | 0.3691 | 0.5518 | 0.2770 | 0.0766 | 0.1667 | 0.1441 | 0.2117 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0960 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7590 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2365 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5920 |
| predicted_H | 0.8890 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0300 |
| predicted_HR | 0.3430 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3448 |
| predicted_R | 0.6220 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7080 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5387 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8420 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1540 | 0.0960 | 0.1288 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0060 | 0.0077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.5700 | 3.7590 | 4.2182 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2090 | 0.2365 | 0.2209 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5470 | 0.5920 | 0.5665 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9600 | 0.8890 | 0.9292 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0300 | 0.0300 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.4500 | 0.3430 | 0.4036 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3220 | 0.3448 | 0.3319 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6150 | 0.6220 | 0.6180 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 1.0400 | 0.7080 | 0.8960 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5410 | 0.5387 | 0.5400 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8030 | 0.8420 | 0.8199 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 464 |
| Season rows before report date | 464 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 117 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.277 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.2 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 3 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260810_TB@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 691406 |
| playerID | 691406 |
| playerName | Junior Caminero |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.387 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.373 |
| sl_xba | 0.274 |
| sl_xslg | 0.513 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 13.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 50.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 93.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 9.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.179 | 1.000 | 0.821 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.160 | 4.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.991 | 4.000 | 0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.372 | 0.750 | 0.400 | Hitting_AVG | 0.309 | 0.750 | 0.441 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.384 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.400 | 0.000 | 0.600 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.011 | 0.000 | -0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.920 | 3.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_H | 1.234 | 3.000 | 1.766 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.260 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.138 | 1.000 | -0.138 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.380 | 0.800 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.382 | 0.600 | 0.418 | 0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.571 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.587 | 2.000 | 0.413 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.850 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.647 | 2.000 | -0.647 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.528 | 1.000 | 0.400 | Hitting_SLG | 0.465 | 1.750 | 0.535 | -0.750 |
| predicted_SO | 0.643 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.609 | 0.000 | -0.609 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 1.9200 -> 3.0000 (boost 1.0800, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 5.1600 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.1600, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | - | predicted_AB: 5.1600 -> 4.7310 (deboost -0.4290, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | predicted_H: 1.6617 -> 1.7534 (boost 0.0917, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.6489 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3511, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.3523 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3523, worse) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=5.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.340 HR/AB=0.043 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6535 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3465, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.3706 -> 0.4000 (boost 0.0294, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.5582 -> 0.4000 (deboost -0.1582, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 5.0000 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4000 -> 0.5582 (boost 0.1582, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.4000 -> 0.3706 (deboost -0.0294, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "650490",
"player_name": "Yandy Díaz",
"position": "DH",
"team": "TB",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.188,
"predicted_3B": 0.009,
"predicted_AB": 5.16,
"predicted_AVG": 0.372,
"predicted_BB": 0.384,
"predicted_H": 1.92,
"predicted_HR": 0.26,
"predicted_OBP": 0.38,
"predicted_R": 0.571,
"predicted_RBI": 0.85,
"predicted_SLG": 0.528,
"predicted_SO": 0.643
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2118,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 4.731,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3484,
"predicted_BB": 0.3467,
"predicted_H": 1.6617,
"predicted_HBP": 0.05,
"predicted_HR": 0.2102,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3723,
"predicted_R": 0.5957,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7321,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5086,
"predicted_SO": 0.6595
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.188,
"after": 0.2118,
"delta": 0.0238,
"percent_delta": 0.1266,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.16,
"after": 4.731,
"delta": -0.429,
"percent_delta": -0.0831,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.372,
"after": 0.3484,
"delta": -0.0236,
"percent_delta": -0.0634,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.384,
"after": 0.3467,
"delta": -0.0373,
"percent_delta": -0.0971,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.92,
"after": 1.6617,
"delta": -0.2583,
"percent_delta": -0.1345,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.26,
"after": 0.2102,
"delta": -0.0498,
"percent_delta": -0.1915,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.3723,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -0.0203,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.571,
"after": 0.5957,
"delta": 0.0247,
"percent_delta": 0.0433,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.85,
"after": 0.7321,
"delta": -0.1179,
"percent_delta": -0.1387,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.528,
"after": 0.5086,
"delta": -0.0194,
"percent_delta": -0.0367,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.643,
"after": 0.6595,
"delta": 0.0165,
"percent_delta": 0.0257,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.16,
"after": 4.731,
"delta": -0.429,
"percent_delta": -0.0831,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 112
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2118,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 4.731,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3706,
"predicted_BB": 0.3523,
"predicted_H": 1.7534,
"predicted_HBP": 0.05,
"predicted_HR": 0.22,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4142,
"predicted_R": 0.6535,
"predicted_RBI": 0.8032,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5582,
"predicted_SO": 0.6489
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2118,
"after": 0.2118,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.731,
"after": 4.731,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.3484,
"after": 0.3706,
"delta": 0.0222,
"percent_delta": 0.0637,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3467,
"after": 0.3523,
"delta": 0.0056,
"percent_delta": 0.0162,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.6617,
"after": 1.7534,
"delta": 0.0917,
"percent_delta": 0.0552,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.05,
"after": 0.05,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2102,
"after": 0.22,
"delta": 0.0098,
"percent_delta": 0.0466,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3723,
"after": 0.4142,
"delta": 0.0419,
"percent_delta": 0.1125,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5957,
"after": 0.6535,
"delta": 0.0578,
"percent_delta": 0.097,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7321,
"after": 0.8032,
"delta": 0.0711,
"percent_delta": 0.0971,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5086,
"after": 0.5582,
"delta": 0.0496,
"percent_delta": 0.0975,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6595,
"after": 0.6489,
"delta": -0.0106,
"percent_delta": -0.0161,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.6617,
"after": 1.7534,
"delta": 0.0917,
"percent_delta": 0.0552,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 5 (raw=5.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.340 HR/AB=0.043",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2118,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2118,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.731,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.269,
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"percent_delta": -0.2248,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.160 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.372 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.384 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.920 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.260 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.380 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.571 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.850 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.528 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.643 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.212 | 0.024 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.731 | -0.429 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.348 | -0.024 |
| predicted_BB | 0.347 | -0.037 |
| predicted_H | 1.662 | -0.258 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.050 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.210 | -0.050 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.372 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.596 | 0.025 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.732 | -0.118 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.509 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SO | 0.659 | 0.016 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.212 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.731 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.371 | 0.022 |
| predicted_BB | 0.352 | 0.006 |
| predicted_H | 1.753 | 0.092 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.050 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.220 | 0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.414 | 0.042 |
| predicted_R | 0.653 | 0.058 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.803 | 0.071 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.558 | 0.050 |
| predicted_SO | 0.649 | -0.011 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=5.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.340 HR/AB=0.043
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 2.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.212 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.269 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.400 | 0.029 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.352 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 0.247 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.220 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.400 | -0.014 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.347 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.197 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.400 | -0.158 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.351 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 3.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 24.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.3750 | 0.3846 | 0.5833 | 0.3750 | 0.0417 | 0.1250 | 0.0417 | 0.1250 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 44.000 | 14.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 0.3182 | 0.3191 | 0.4545 | 0.3182 | 0.0227 | 0.1136 | 0.0227 | 0.1818 |
| season | 0.60 | 112 | - | 439.000 | 134.000 | 21.000 | 1.000 | 16.000 | 67.000 | 64.000 | 43.000 | 72.000 | 0.3052 | 0.3750 | 0.4670 | 0.3052 | 0.0365 | 0.1526 | 0.0979 | 0.1640 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2430 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 4.1700 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3176 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2980 |
| predicted_H | 1.3240 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0500 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1450 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3623 |
| predicted_R | 0.6280 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5780 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4833 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6810 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1880 | 0.2430 | 0.2118 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0060 | 0.0077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.1600 | 4.1700 | 4.7310 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3720 | 0.3176 | 0.3484 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3840 | 0.2980 | 0.3467 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.9200 | 1.3240 | 1.6617 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0500 | 0.0500 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2600 | 0.1450 | 0.2102 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3800 | 0.3623 | 0.3723 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5710 | 0.6280 | 0.5957 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.8500 | 0.5780 | 0.7321 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5280 | 0.4833 | 0.5086 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6430 | 0.6810 | 0.6595 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 448 |
| Season rows before report date | 448 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 112 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 3 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.305 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.75 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 3 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 1 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 7 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260810_TB@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 650490 |
| playerID | 650490 |
| playerName | Yandy Díaz |
| pos | DH |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.358 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.352 |
| sl_xba | 0.284 |
| sl_xslg | 0.439 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 47.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 6.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 14.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.103 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.333 | 0.000 | -0.333 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.477 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.278 | 0.000 | 0.056 | 0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.402 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.500 | 0.000 | -0.500 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.410 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.833 | 0.000 | 0.167 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.167 | 0.000 | -0.167 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.353 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.409 | 0.000 | 0.091 | 0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.514 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.167 | 0.000 | 0.833 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.290 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.363 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.556 | 0.000 | -0.222 | 0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.374 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.167 | 1.000 | 1.833 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.3740 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.6260, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.4770 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.4770, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.4100 -> 0.6237 (boost 0.2137, better) | predicted_AB: 3.4770 -> 3.3930 (deboost -0.0840, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3865 -> 0.3015 (deboost -0.0850, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.6581 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3419, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4704 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4704, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.022 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4718 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4718, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1940 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1390, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1940 (deboost -0.1390, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "689414",
"player_name": "Liam Hicks",
"position": "C",
"team": "TB",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.103,
"predicted_3B": 0.009,
"predicted_AB": 3.477,
"predicted_AVG": 0.225,
"predicted_BB": 0.402,
"predicted_H": 0.41,
"predicted_HR": 0.05,
"predicted_OBP": 0.353,
"predicted_R": 0.514,
"predicted_RBI": 0.29,
"predicted_SLG": 0.363,
"predicted_SO": 0.374
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1233,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 3.393,
"predicted_AVG": 0.247,
"predicted_BB": 0.4171,
"predicted_H": 0.6237,
"predicted_HBP": 0.113,
"predicted_HR": 0.072,
"predicted_OBP": 0.363,
"predicted_R": 0.43,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4288,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3865,
"predicted_SO": 0.3555
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.103,
"after": 0.1233,
"delta": 0.0203,
"percent_delta": 0.1971,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.477,
"after": 3.393,
"delta": -0.084,
"percent_delta": -0.0242,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.225,
"after": 0.247,
"delta": 0.022,
"percent_delta": 0.0978,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.402,
"after": 0.4171,
"delta": 0.0151,
"percent_delta": 0.0376,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 0.6237,
"delta": 0.2137,
"percent_delta": 0.5212,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.05,
"after": 0.072,
"delta": 0.022,
"percent_delta": 0.44,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.353,
"after": 0.363,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.0283,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.514,
"after": 0.43,
"delta": -0.084,
"percent_delta": -0.1634,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.4288,
"delta": 0.1388,
"percent_delta": 0.4786,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.363,
"after": 0.3865,
"delta": 0.0235,
"percent_delta": 0.0647,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.374,
"after": 0.3555,
"delta": -0.0185,
"percent_delta": -0.0495,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 0.6237,
"delta": 0.2137,
"percent_delta": 0.5212,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.477,
"after": 3.393,
"delta": -0.084,
"percent_delta": -0.0242,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 107
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1233,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 3.393,
"predicted_AVG": 0.194,
"predicted_BB": 0.4238,
"predicted_H": 0.6581,
"predicted_HBP": 0.113,
"predicted_HR": 0.0754,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2835,
"predicted_R": 0.4718,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4704,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3015,
"predicted_SO": 0.3498
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1233,
"after": 0.1233,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.393,
"after": 3.393,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.247,
"after": 0.194,
"delta": -0.053,
"percent_delta": -0.2146,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4171,
"after": 0.4238,
"delta": 0.0067,
"percent_delta": 0.0161,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6237,
"after": 0.6581,
"delta": 0.0344,
"percent_delta": 0.0552,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.113,
"after": 0.113,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.072,
"after": 0.0754,
"delta": 0.0034,
"percent_delta": 0.0472,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.363,
"after": 0.2835,
"delta": -0.0795,
"percent_delta": -0.219,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.43,
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.353,
"after": 0.2835,
"delta": -0.0695,
"percent_delta": -0.1969,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.514,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.486,
"percent_delta": 0.9455,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.71,
"percent_delta": 2.4483,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.363,
"after": 0.3015,
"delta": -0.0615,
"percent_delta": -0.1694,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.374,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.626,
"percent_delta": 4.3476,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.374,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.626,
"percent_delta": 4.3476,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.477,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.477,
"percent_delta": -0.1372,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.103 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.477 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.402 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.410 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.353 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.514 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.290 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.363 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.374 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.123 | 0.020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.393 | -0.084 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | 0.022 |
| predicted_BB | 0.417 | 0.015 |
| predicted_H | 0.624 | 0.214 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.113 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.072 | 0.022 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.363 | 0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.430 | -0.084 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.429 | 0.139 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.387 | 0.024 |
| predicted_SO | 0.355 | -0.019 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.123 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.393 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.194 | -0.053 |
| predicted_BB | 0.424 | 0.007 |
| predicted_H | 0.658 | 0.034 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.113 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.075 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | -0.080 |
| predicted_R | 0.472 | 0.042 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.470 | 0.042 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.301 | -0.085 |
| predicted_SO | 0.350 | -0.006 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.022
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.123 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.393 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.139 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.424 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.342 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.075 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.050 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.472 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.470 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.032 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.350 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 13.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.2308 | 0.3750 | 0.3077 | 0.2308 | 0.0000 | 0.1538 | 0.1538 | 0.0769 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 0.3125 | 0.4359 | 0.4688 | 0.3125 | 0.0312 | 0.2500 | 0.1875 | 0.0625 |
| season | 0.60 | 107 | - | 372.000 | 105.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 15.000 | 68.000 | 55.000 | 43.000 | 40.000 | 0.2823 | 0.3651 | 0.4382 | 0.2823 | 0.0403 | 0.1828 | 0.1156 | 0.1075 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1500 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2820 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2761 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4370 |
| predicted_H | 0.9060 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1130 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3763 |
| predicted_R | 0.3190 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6120 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4176 |
| predicted_SO | 0.3310 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1030 | 0.1500 | 0.1233 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0060 | 0.0077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4770 | 3.2820 | 3.3930 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2250 | 0.2761 | 0.2470 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4020 | 0.4370 | 0.4171 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.4100 | 0.9060 | 0.6237 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1130 | 0.1130 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0500 | 0.1010 | 0.0720 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3530 | 0.3763 | 0.3630 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5140 | 0.3190 | 0.4300 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2900 | 0.6120 | 0.4288 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3630 | 0.4176 | 0.3865 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.3740 | 0.3310 | 0.3555 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 6 |
| Season rows before report date | 6 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 107 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 1 |
| season_avg | 0.282 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH-C |
| gameID | 20260810_TB@OAK |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 689414 |
| note | Struck out for Williams, C in the 8th. |
| playerID | 689414 |
| playerName | Liam Hicks |
| pos | C |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 9.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.353 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.311 |
| sl_xba | 0.249 |
| sl_xslg | 0.348 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 26.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 28.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 10.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.167 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.169 | 0.000 | -0.169 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.600 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.831 | 4.000 | 1.169 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.280 | 0.000 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.289 | 0.500 | -0.289 | -0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.482 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.519 | 1.000 | -0.519 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.290 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.109 | 2.000 | -1.109 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.144 | 0.000 | -0.144 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.352 | 0.000 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.378 | 0.600 | -0.378 | -0.600 |
| predicted_R | 0.500 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.503 | 1.000 | -0.503 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.610 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.674 | 1.000 | -0.674 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.432 | 0.000 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.446 | 0.500 | -0.446 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.033 | 1.000 | -0.033 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 4.6000 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.4000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.2900 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.2900, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2800 -> 0.2891 (boost 0.0091, better) | predicted_AB: 4.6000 -> 4.3239 (deboost -0.2761, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | predicted_H: 1.2480 -> 1.3169 (boost 0.0689, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | predicted_AB: 4.3239 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.6761, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4418 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4418, worse) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.286 HR/AB=0.030 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5661 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4339, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4366 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.2366, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2000 -> 0.4366 (boost 0.2366, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "666018",
"player_name": "Jonathan Aranda",
"position": "1B",
"team": "TB",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.167,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.6,
"predicted_AVG": 0.28,
"predicted_BB": 0.482,
"predicted_H": 1.29,
"predicted_HR": 0.13,
"predicted_OBP": 0.352,
"predicted_R": 0.5,
"predicted_RBI": 0.61,
"predicted_SLG": 0.432,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1497,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.3239,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2891,
"predicted_BB": 0.4348,
"predicted_H": 1.248,
"predicted_HBP": 0.044,
"predicted_HR": 0.1339,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3572,
"predicted_R": 0.516,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6291,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4349,
"predicted_SO": 0.9835
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.167,
"after": 0.1497,
"delta": -0.0173,
"percent_delta": -0.1036,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.6,
"after": 4.3239,
"delta": -0.2761,
"percent_delta": -0.06,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.2891,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0325,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.482,
"after": 0.4348,
"delta": -0.0472,
"percent_delta": -0.0979,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.29,
"after": 1.248,
"delta": -0.042,
"percent_delta": -0.0326,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.1339,
"delta": 0.0039,
"percent_delta": 0.03,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.352,
"after": 0.3572,
"delta": 0.0052,
"percent_delta": 0.0148,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 0.516,
"delta": 0.016,
"percent_delta": 0.032,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.61,
"after": 0.6291,
"delta": 0.0191,
"percent_delta": 0.0313,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.432,
"after": 0.4349,
"delta": 0.0029,
"percent_delta": 0.0067,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.9835,
"delta": -0.0165,
"percent_delta": -0.0165,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.2891,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0325,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.6,
"after": 4.3239,
"delta": -0.2761,
"percent_delta": -0.06,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 114
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1497,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.3239,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3046,
"predicted_BB": 0.4418,
"predicted_H": 1.3169,
"predicted_HBP": 0.044,
"predicted_HR": 0.1402,
"predicted_OBP": 0.369,
"predicted_R": 0.5661,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6902,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4366,
"predicted_SO": 0.9677
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1497,
"after": 0.1497,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.4366,
"delta": 0.2366,
"percent_delta": 1.183,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.167,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.167,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.6,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.4,
"percent_delta": 0.087,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.3046,
"delta": 0.0246,
"percent_delta": 0.0879,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.482,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.482,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.29,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.29,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.13,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.352,
"after": 0.369,
"delta": 0.017,
"percent_delta": 0.0483,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.61,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.61,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.432,
"after": 0.4366,
"delta": 0.0046,
"percent_delta": 0.0106,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.6,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.4,
"percent_delta": 0.087,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.29,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.29,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.167 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.600 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.280 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.482 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.290 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.352 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.500 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.610 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.432 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.150 | -0.017 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.324 | -0.276 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.289 | 0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.435 | -0.047 |
| predicted_H | 1.248 | -0.042 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.044 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.134 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.357 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.516 | 0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.629 | 0.019 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.435 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.984 | -0.016 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.150 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.324 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.305 | 0.015 |
| predicted_BB | 0.442 | 0.007 |
| predicted_H | 1.317 | 0.069 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.044 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | 0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.369 | 0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.566 | 0.050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.690 | 0.061 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.437 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.968 | -0.016 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.286 HR/AB=0.030
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.150 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.676 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | -0.105 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.442 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.317 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.140 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.200 | -0.169 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.434 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.310 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.200 | -0.237 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.032 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.3333 | 0.3636 | 0.4762 | 0.3333 | 0.0476 | 0.1429 | 0.0476 | 0.2381 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 44.000 | 14.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 0.3182 | 0.3478 | 0.4091 | 0.3182 | 0.0227 | 0.1818 | 0.0454 | 0.1818 |
| season | 0.60 | 114 | - | 428.000 | 124.000 | 19.000 | 0.000 | 15.000 | 73.000 | 57.000 | 55.000 | 114.000 | 0.2897 | 0.3755 | 0.4393 | 0.2897 | 0.0350 | 0.1706 | 0.1285 | 0.2664 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1270 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9630 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3730 |
| predicted_H | 1.1930 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0440 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1390 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3641 |
| predicted_R | 0.5370 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6540 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4388 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9620 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1670 | 0.1270 | 0.1497 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.6000 | 3.9630 | 4.3239 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2800 | 0.3009 | 0.2891 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4820 | 0.3730 | 0.4348 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.2900 | 1.1930 | 1.2480 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0440 | 0.0440 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 | 0.1390 | 0.1339 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3520 | 0.3641 | 0.3572 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5000 | 0.5370 | 0.5160 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6100 | 0.6540 | 0.6291 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4320 | 0.4388 | 0.4349 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.9620 | 0.9835 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 451 |
| Season rows before report date | 451 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 114 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.29 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260810_TB@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 666018 |
| playerID | 666018 |
| playerName | Jonathan Aranda |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.354 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.354 |
| sl_xba | 0.264 |
| sl_xslg | 0.451 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.112 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.118 | 0.000 | -0.118 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.056 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.053 | 0.000 | -0.053 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.610 | 4.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.952 | 5.000 | 0.048 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.321 | 0.500 | 0.400 | Hitting_AVG | 0.292 | 0.400 | 0.208 | 0.100 |
| predicted_BB | 0.178 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.218 | 0.000 | -0.218 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.123 | 0.000 | -0.123 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.480 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_H | 1.153 | 2.000 | 0.847 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.355 | 0.500 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.326 | 0.400 | 0.174 | 0.100 |
| predicted_R | 0.449 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.451 | 1.000 | 0.549 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.206 | 1.000 | 0.794 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.412 | 0.500 | 0.400 | Hitting_SLG | 0.348 | 0.400 | 0.152 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 0.364 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.396 | 0.000 | 0.604 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.3640 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6360, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.6100 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.6100, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.3210 -> 0.3318 (boost 0.0108, better) | predicted_AB: 4.6100 -> 4.3478 (deboost -0.2622, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_H: 1.4390 -> 1.5184 (boost 0.0794, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_AB: 4.3478 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.6522, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3997 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3997, worse) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.329 HR/AB=0.002 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5026 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4974, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.3492 -> 0.4000 (boost 0.0508, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4051 -> 0.4000 (deboost -0.0051, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 5.0000 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.4000 -> 0.4051 (boost 0.0051, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.4000 -> 0.3492 (deboost -0.0508, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "802415",
"player_name": "Chandler Simpson",
"position": "LF",
"team": "TB",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.112,
"predicted_3B": 0.056,
"predicted_AB": 4.61,
"predicted_AVG": 0.321,
"predicted_BB": 0.178,
"predicted_H": 1.48,
"predicted_HR": 0.01,
"predicted_OBP": 0.355,
"predicted_R": 0.449,
"predicted_RBI": 0.41,
"predicted_SLG": 0.412,
"predicted_SO": 0.364
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1198,
"predicted_3B": 0.0465,
"predicted_AB": 4.3478,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3318,
"predicted_BB": 0.1534,
"predicted_H": 1.439,
"predicted_HBP": 0.002,
"predicted_HR": 0.0096,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3591,
"predicted_R": 0.4581,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3643,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4077,
"predicted_SO": 0.339
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.112,
"after": 0.1198,
"delta": 0.0078,
"percent_delta": 0.0696,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.056,
"after": 0.0465,
"delta": -0.0095,
"percent_delta": -0.1696,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.61,
"after": 4.3478,
"delta": -0.2622,
"percent_delta": -0.0569,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.321,
"after": 0.3318,
"delta": 0.0108,
"percent_delta": 0.0336,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.178,
"after": 0.1534,
"delta": -0.0246,
"percent_delta": -0.1382,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.48,
"after": 1.439,
"delta": -0.041,
"percent_delta": -0.0277,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.0096,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.04,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.355,
"after": 0.3591,
"delta": 0.0041,
"percent_delta": 0.0115,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.449,
"after": 0.4581,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0203,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 0.3643,
"delta": -0.0457,
"percent_delta": -0.1115,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.412,
"after": 0.4077,
"delta": -0.0043,
"percent_delta": -0.0104,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.364,
"after": 0.339,
"delta": -0.025,
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"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.3718,
"delta": -0.0282,
"percent_delta": -0.0706,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.4051,
"delta": 0.0051,
"percent_delta": 0.0128,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.4051,
"delta": 0.0051,
"percent_delta": 0.0128,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.3492,
"delta": -0.0508,
"percent_delta": -0.1269,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.112,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.112,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.056,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.056,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.61,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.61,
"percent_delta": -0.1323,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.321,
"after": 0.3492,
"delta": 0.0282,
"percent_delta": 0.0879,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.178,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.178,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.48,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.52,
"percent_delta": 0.3514,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.355,
"after": 0.3718,
"delta": 0.0168,
"percent_delta": 0.0473,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.449,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.551,
"percent_delta": 1.2272,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.59,
"percent_delta": 1.439,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.412,
"after": 0.4051,
"delta": -0.0069,
"percent_delta": -0.0167,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.364,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.636,
"percent_delta": 1.7473,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.364,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.636,
"percent_delta": 1.7473,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.61,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.61,
"percent_delta": -0.1323,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.112 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.056 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.610 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.321 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.178 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.480 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.355 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.449 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.412 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.364 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.120 | 0.008 |
| predicted_3B | 0.046 | -0.010 |
| predicted_AB | 4.348 | -0.262 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.332 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.153 | -0.025 |
| predicted_H | 1.439 | -0.041 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.010 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.359 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.458 | 0.009 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.364 | -0.046 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.408 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.339 | -0.025 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.120 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.046 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.348 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.349 | 0.017 |
| predicted_BB | 0.156 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 1.518 | 0.079 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.372 | 0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.503 | 0.045 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.400 | 0.035 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.405 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.334 | -0.006 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.329 HR/AB=0.002
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 2.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.120 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.046 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.652 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.400 | 0.051 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.156 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 0.482 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.400 | 0.028 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.497 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.400 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.400 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.334 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 22.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.4091 | 0.4091 | 0.4545 | 0.4091 | 0.0000 | 0.0909 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 41.000 | 18.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.4390 | 0.4390 | 0.4634 | 0.4390 | 0.0000 | 0.0976 | 0.0000 | 0.0488 |
| season | 0.60 | 107 | - | 413.000 | 126.000 | 12.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 24.000 | 48.000 | 19.000 | 39.000 | 0.3051 | 0.3318 | 0.3632 | 0.3051 | 0.0000 | 0.0581 | 0.0460 | 0.0944 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1300 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0340 |
| predicted_AB | 4.0020 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3460 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1210 |
| predicted_H | 1.3850 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0020 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0090 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3646 |
| predicted_R | 0.4700 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3040 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4020 |
| predicted_SO | 0.3060 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1120 | 0.1300 | 0.1198 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0560 | 0.0340 | 0.0465 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.6100 | 4.0020 | 4.3478 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3210 | 0.3460 | 0.3318 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1780 | 0.1210 | 0.1534 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.4800 | 1.3850 | 1.4390 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0020 | 0.0020 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0100 | 0.0090 | 0.0096 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3550 | 0.3646 | 0.3591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4490 | 0.4700 | 0.4581 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4100 | 0.3040 | 0.3643 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4120 | 0.4020 | 0.4077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.3640 | 0.3060 | 0.3390 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 399 |
| Season rows before report date | 399 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 107 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.305 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 2 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.4 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260810_TB@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 802415 |
| playerID | 802415 |
| playerName | Chandler Simpson |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 8.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 4.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.307 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.264 |
| sl_xba | 0.257 |
| sl_xslg | 0.295 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 0.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 14.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 84.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 1.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 10.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.067 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.050 | 0.000 | -0.050 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.044 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 | -0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.800 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.180 | 5.000 | 0.820 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.196 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.226 | 0.000 | 0.024 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.311 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.403 | 0.000 | -0.403 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.058 | 0.000 | -0.058 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.740 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.719 | 0.000 | 0.281 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.252 | 0.000 | 0.748 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.248 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.310 | 0.000 | -0.060 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.422 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.489 | 0.000 | 0.511 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.400 | 3.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.525 | 0.000 | 2.475 | 3.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.443 | 1.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.489 | 0.000 | 0.511 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.867 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.820 | 1.000 | 0.180 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 8 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 2 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.4000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.6000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.3110 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3110, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4430 -> 0.4566 (boost 0.0136, better) | predicted_AB: 3.8000 -> 3.6594 (deboost -0.1406, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.2546 -> 0.2705 (boost 0.0159, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4566 -> 0.4385 (deboost -0.0181, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_AB: 3.6594 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.3406, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4358 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4358, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.051 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4510 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4510, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2162 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0338, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4385 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1885, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 3.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4385 (boost 0.1885, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2162 (deboost -0.0338, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "683748",
"player_name": "Victor Mesa Jr.",
"position": "RF",
"team": "TB",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.067,
"predicted_3B": 0.044,
"predicted_AB": 3.8,
"predicted_AVG": 0.196,
"predicted_BB": 0.311,
"predicted_H": 0.74,
"predicted_HR": 0.19,
"predicted_OBP": 0.248,
"predicted_R": 0.422,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4,
"predicted_SLG": 0.443,
"predicted_SO": 0.867
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0844,
"predicted_3B": 0.0759,
"predicted_AB": 3.6594,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2062,
"predicted_BB": 0.2682,
"predicted_H": 0.7497,
"predicted_HBP": 0.005,
"predicted_HR": 0.1839,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2546,
"predicted_R": 0.4111,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3972,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4566,
"predicted_SO": 0.8585
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 3.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2162,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2705,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 3.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4385,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2162,
"delta": -0.0338,
"percent_delta": -0.1353,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2705,
"delta": 0.0205,
"percent_delta": 0.082,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4385,
"delta": 0.1885,
"percent_delta": 0.7541,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4385,
"delta": 0.1885,
"percent_delta": 0.7541,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2162,
"delta": -0.0338,
"percent_delta": -0.1353,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.067,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.067,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.044,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.044,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.2,
"percent_delta": 0.0526,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.196,
"after": 0.2162,
"delta": 0.0202,
"percent_delta": 0.1031,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.311,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.311,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.74,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.26,
"percent_delta": 0.3514,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.81,
"percent_delta": 4.2632,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.248,
"after": 0.2705,
"delta": 0.0225,
"percent_delta": 0.0907,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.422,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.578,
"percent_delta": 1.3697,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.6,
"percent_delta": 6.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.443,
"after": 0.4385,
"delta": -0.0045,
"percent_delta": -0.0102,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.867,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.133,
"percent_delta": 0.1534,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 8,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 7,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.6,
"percent_delta": 6.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.311,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.311,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.067 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.044 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.800 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.196 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.311 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.740 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.248 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.422 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.400 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.443 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.867 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.084 | 0.017 |
| predicted_3B | 0.076 | 0.032 |
| predicted_AB | 3.659 | -0.141 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.206 | 0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.268 | -0.043 |
| predicted_H | 0.750 | 0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.184 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.255 | 0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.411 | -0.011 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.397 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.457 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 0.859 | -0.008 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.084 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.076 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.659 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | 0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.273 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.791 | 0.041 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.193 | 0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.271 | 0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.451 | 0.040 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.436 | 0.039 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.439 | -0.018 |
| predicted_SO | 0.845 | -0.014 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.051
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.084 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.076 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.341 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.034 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.273 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.209 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.193 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.021 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.451 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.436 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.189 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.155 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 3.000 | 3.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.2778 | 0.2778 | 0.7222 | 0.2778 | 0.0556 | 0.1111 | 0.0000 | 0.2222 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 8.000 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 | 0.3889 | 0.1667 | 0.0278 | 0.0556 | 0.0000 | 0.2222 |
| season | 0.60 | 45 | - | 146.000 | 31.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 19.000 | 19.000 | 14.000 | 39.000 | 0.2123 | 0.2795 | 0.4452 | 0.2123 | 0.0616 | 0.1301 | 0.0959 | 0.2671 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1100 |
| predicted_3B | 0.1230 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4520 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2213 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2050 |
| predicted_H | 0.7640 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0050 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1750 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2643 |
| predicted_R | 0.3950 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3930 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4767 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8460 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0670 | 0.1100 | 0.0844 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0440 | 0.1230 | 0.0759 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8000 | 3.4520 | 3.6594 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1960 | 0.2213 | 0.2062 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3110 | 0.2050 | 0.2682 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7400 | 0.7640 | 0.7497 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0050 | 0.0050 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1900 | 0.1750 | 0.1839 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2480 | 0.2643 | 0.2546 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4220 | 0.3950 | 0.4111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4000 | 0.3930 | 0.3972 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4430 | 0.4767 | 0.4566 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8670 | 0.8460 | 0.8585 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 139 |
| Season rows before report date | 139 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 45 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 3 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.212 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260809_TB@SEA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 683748 |
| playerID | 683748 |
| playerName | Victor Mesa Jr. |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-08-09 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.315 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.32 |
| sl_xba | 0.234 |
| sl_xslg | 0.433 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 21.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.082 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.076 | 0.000 | -0.076 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 | -0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.449 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.608 | 0.000 | 0.392 | 4.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.197 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.207 | - | -0.207 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.327 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.367 | 0.000 | -0.367 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.081 | 0.000 | -0.081 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.290 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.745 | 0.000 | -0.745 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.143 | 0.000 | -0.143 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.291 | - | -0.291 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.449 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.468 | 1.000 | -0.468 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.210 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.401 | 0.000 | -0.401 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.317 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.354 | - | -0.354 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.806 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.849 | 0.000 | 0.151 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.4490 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.5510, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.4490 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4490, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 8 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.2900 -> 0.5146 (boost 0.2246, better) | predicted_SO: 0.8060 -> 0.7361 (deboost -0.0699, better) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_R: 0.5163 -> 0.5664 (boost 0.0501, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3180 -> 0.2404 (deboost -0.0776, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 8 | predicted_SO: 0.7242 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2758, worse) | predicted_H: 0.5430 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5430, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.023 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1606 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1724, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1606 (deboost -0.1724, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "656775",
"player_name": "Cedric Mullins",
"position": "CF",
"team": "TB",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_3B": 0.02,
"predicted_AB": 3.449,
"predicted_AVG": 0.197,
"predicted_BB": 0.327,
"predicted_H": 0.29,
"predicted_HR": 0.06,
"predicted_OBP": 0.303,
"predicted_R": 0.449,
"predicted_RBI": 0.21,
"predicted_SLG": 0.317,
"predicted_SO": 0.806
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0166,
"predicted_AB": 3.3809,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2186,
"predicted_BB": 0.3497,
"predicted_H": 0.5146,
"predicted_HBP": 0.103,
"predicted_HR": 0.0763,
"predicted_OBP": 0.318,
"predicted_R": 0.5163,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2876,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3467,
"predicted_SO": 0.7361
},
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"percent_delta": 0.2927,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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"percent_delta": 0.0694,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"after": 0.5146,
"delta": 0.2246,
"percent_delta": 0.7745,
"direction": "boost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.015,
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"percent_delta": 0.3695,
"direction": "boost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"after": 0.3467,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
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"direction": "deboost",
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],
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},
"weights": {
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
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"last_10": 10,
"season": 98
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0166,
"predicted_AB": 3.3809,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1606,
"predicted_BB": 0.3553,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.103,
"predicted_HR": 0.0799,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2404,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.3155,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2726,
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},
{
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{
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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{
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},
{
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{
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"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
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},
"weights": {},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"material": false
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{
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"direction": "no_change",
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{
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"material": false
}
],
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
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"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
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{
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{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1606,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2404,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2726,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1606,
"delta": -0.1724,
"percent_delta": -0.5177,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2404,
"delta": -0.0926,
"percent_delta": -0.278,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2726,
"delta": -0.0604,
"percent_delta": -0.1812,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1606,
"delta": -0.1724,
"percent_delta": -0.5177,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.082,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.082,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.02,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.449,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.551,
"percent_delta": 0.1598,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.197,
"after": 0.1606,
"delta": -0.0364,
"percent_delta": -0.1848,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.327,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.327,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.29,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.06,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.06,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.303,
"after": 0.2404,
"delta": -0.0626,
"percent_delta": -0.2066,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.449,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.449,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.21,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.317,
"after": 0.2726,
"delta": -0.0444,
"percent_delta": -0.1401,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.806,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.194,
"percent_delta": 0.2407,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.449,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.551,
"percent_delta": 0.1598,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.449,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.449,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.082 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.449 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.197 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.327 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.290 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.449 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.210 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.317 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.806 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.106 | 0.024 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.381 | -0.068 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | 0.022 |
| predicted_BB | 0.350 | 0.023 |
| predicted_H | 0.515 | 0.225 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.103 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.076 | 0.016 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | 0.015 |
| predicted_R | 0.516 | 0.067 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.288 | 0.078 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.347 | 0.030 |
| predicted_SO | 0.736 | -0.070 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.106 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.381 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.161 | -0.058 |
| predicted_BB | 0.355 | 0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.543 | 0.028 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.103 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.240 | -0.078 |
| predicted_R | 0.566 | 0.050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.316 | 0.028 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.273 | -0.074 |
| predicted_SO | 0.724 | -0.012 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.023
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.106 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.017 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.381 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.172 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.355 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.457 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.080 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.093 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.434 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.316 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.060 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.276 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 14.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.3571 | 0.5000 | 0.4286 | 0.3571 | 0.0000 | 0.1429 | 0.2143 | 0.0714 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 31.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 0.2581 | 0.3429 | 0.4194 | 0.2581 | 0.0323 | 0.1290 | 0.0968 | 0.1935 |
| season | 0.60 | 98 | - | 338.000 | 70.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 13.000 | 36.000 | 44.000 | 32.000 | 79.000 | 0.2071 | 0.2868 | 0.3580 | 0.2071 | 0.0385 | 0.1065 | 0.0947 | 0.2337 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1380 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2900 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2474 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3800 |
| predicted_H | 0.8140 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1030 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0980 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3381 |
| predicted_R | 0.6060 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3910 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3862 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6430 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0820 | 0.1380 | 0.1060 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0200 | 0.0120 | 0.0166 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4490 | 3.2900 | 3.3809 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1970 | 0.2474 | 0.2186 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3270 | 0.3800 | 0.3497 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.2900 | 0.8140 | 0.5146 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1030 | 0.1030 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0600 | 0.0980 | 0.0763 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3030 | 0.3381 | 0.3180 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4490 | 0.6060 | 0.5163 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2100 | 0.3910 | 0.2876 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3170 | 0.3862 | 0.3467 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8060 | 0.6430 | 0.7361 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 357 |
| Season rows before report date | 357 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 98 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.207 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PR-CF |
| gameID | 20260810_TB@OAK |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 656775 |
| note | Ran for Fortes in the 8th. |
| playerID | 656775 |
| playerName | Cedric Mullins |
| pos | CF |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PR |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.287 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.253 |
| sl_xba | 0.18 |
| sl_xslg | 0.297 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 25.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 31.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 27.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.146 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.163 | 0.000 | -0.163 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.146 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.221 | 4.000 | 0.779 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.218 | 0.250 | 0.032 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.404 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.427 | 0.000 | -0.427 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.039 | 0.000 | -0.039 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.690 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.704 | 1.000 | 0.296 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.268 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.311 | 0.250 | -0.061 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.483 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.511 | 1.000 | -0.511 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.370 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.280 | 2.000 | -0.280 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.265 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.285 | 0.250 | -0.035 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.944 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.003 | 0.000 | 0.997 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.9440 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0560, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.4830 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4830, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_OBP: 0.2680 -> 0.2739 (boost 0.0059, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2510 -> 0.2254 (deboost -0.0256, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.2739 -> 0.3077 (boost 0.0338, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2254 -> 0.2186 (deboost -0.0068, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.6896 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3104, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4062 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4062, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.003 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5341 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4659, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2186 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1144, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2186 (deboost -0.1144, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "670764",
"player_name": "Taylor Walls",
"position": "SS",
"team": "TB",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.022,
"predicted_AB": 3.146,
"predicted_AVG": 0.251,
"predicted_BB": 0.404,
"predicted_H": 0.69,
"predicted_HR": 0.01,
"predicted_OBP": 0.268,
"predicted_R": 0.483,
"predicted_RBI": 0.37,
"predicted_SLG": 0.265,
"predicted_SO": 0.944
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1239,
"predicted_3B": 0.0186,
"predicted_AB": 3.1549,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2254,
"predicted_BB": 0.3998,
"predicted_H": 0.6535,
"predicted_HBP": 0.015,
"predicted_HR": 0.0096,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2739,
"predicted_R": 0.4868,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3581,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2534,
"predicted_SO": 0.9113
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.146,
"after": 0.1239,
"delta": -0.0221,
"percent_delta": -0.1514,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.022,
"after": 0.0186,
"delta": -0.0034,
"percent_delta": -0.1545,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"before": 3.146,
"after": 3.1549,
"delta": 0.0089,
"percent_delta": 0.0028,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.251,
"after": 0.2254,
"delta": -0.0256,
"percent_delta": -0.102,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.3998,
"delta": -0.0042,
"percent_delta": -0.0104,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.69,
"after": 0.6535,
"delta": -0.0365,
"percent_delta": -0.0529,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.0096,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.04,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.268,
"after": 0.2739,
"delta": 0.0059,
"percent_delta": 0.022,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.483,
"after": 0.4868,
"delta": 0.0038,
"percent_delta": 0.0079,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.3581,
"delta": -0.0119,
"percent_delta": -0.0322,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.265,
"after": 0.2534,
"delta": -0.0116,
"percent_delta": -0.0438,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.944,
"after": 0.9113,
"delta": -0.0327,
"percent_delta": -0.0346,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 0.2739,
"delta": 0.0059,
"percent_delta": 0.022,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.251,
"after": 0.2254,
"delta": -0.0256,
"percent_delta": -0.102,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 89
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0186,
"predicted_AB": 3.1549,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2186,
"predicted_BB": 0.4062,
"predicted_H": 0.6896,
"predicted_HBP": 0.015,
"predicted_HR": 0.01,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3077,
"predicted_R": 0.5341,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3929,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2792,
"predicted_SO": 0.8966
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"before": 0.1239,
"after": 0.1239,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"after": 0.0186,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.2186,
"delta": -0.0068,
"percent_delta": -0.0302,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"after": 0.4062,
"delta": 0.0064,
"percent_delta": 0.016,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"after": 0.6896,
"delta": 0.0361,
"percent_delta": 0.0552,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"delta": 0.0004,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"after": 0.3077,
"delta": 0.0338,
"percent_delta": 0.1234,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"delta": 0.0473,
"percent_delta": 0.0972,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0348,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"after": 0.2792,
"delta": 0.0258,
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"after": 0.8966,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
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"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.003",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
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{
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{
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"direction": "deboost",
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{
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"delta": 0.3104,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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{
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"delta": -0.015,
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{
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"delta": -0.01,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.4659,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
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"predicted_SLG": 0.333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3077,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.0253,
"percent_delta": 0.0822,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2792,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.0538,
"percent_delta": 0.1927,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.1144,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0,
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"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2186,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3077,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2792,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"delta": -0.1144,
"percent_delta": -0.3436,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3077,
"delta": -0.0253,
"percent_delta": -0.0759,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2792,
"delta": -0.0538,
"percent_delta": -0.1616,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.2186,
"delta": -0.1144,
"percent_delta": -0.3436,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.146,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.146,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.022,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.022,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.146,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.854,
"percent_delta": 0.2715,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
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"delta": -0.0324,
"percent_delta": -0.1291,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.404,
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"delta": -0.404,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.69,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.31,
"percent_delta": 0.4493,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.01,
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"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.268,
"after": 0.3077,
"delta": 0.0397,
"percent_delta": 0.1481,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.483,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.483,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.37,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.265,
"after": 0.2792,
"delta": 0.0142,
"percent_delta": 0.0536,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.944,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.056,
"percent_delta": 1.1186,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.944,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.056,
"percent_delta": 1.1186,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.483,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.483,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.146 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.146 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.404 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.690 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.268 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.483 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.370 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.265 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.944 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.124 | -0.022 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.155 | 0.009 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | -0.026 |
| predicted_BB | 0.400 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.653 | -0.036 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.015 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.010 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.274 | 0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.487 | 0.004 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.358 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.253 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 0.911 | -0.033 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.124 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.155 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.406 | 0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.690 | 0.036 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | 0.034 |
| predicted_R | 0.534 | 0.047 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.393 | 0.035 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.279 | 0.026 |
| predicted_SO | 0.897 | -0.015 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.003
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.124 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.155 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.114 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.406 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.310 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.025 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.466 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.393 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.054 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.103 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.1333 | 0.2353 | 0.1333 | 0.1333 | 0.0000 | 0.1333 | 0.1333 | 0.2667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 31.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 0.1613 | 0.2571 | 0.1613 | 0.1613 | 0.0000 | 0.1290 | 0.1290 | 0.2258 |
| season | 0.60 | 89 | - | 280.000 | 59.000 | 13.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 25.000 | 43.000 | 36.000 | 84.000 | 0.2107 | 0.3022 | 0.2714 | 0.2107 | 0.0000 | 0.0893 | 0.1286 | 0.3000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0940 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0140 |
| predicted_AB | 3.1670 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1907 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3940 |
| predicted_H | 0.6040 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0150 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0090 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2820 |
| predicted_R | 0.4920 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3420 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2378 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8670 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1460 | 0.0940 | 0.1239 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0220 | 0.0140 | 0.0186 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.1460 | 3.1670 | 3.1549 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2510 | 0.1907 | 0.2254 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4040 | 0.3940 | 0.3998 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6900 | 0.6040 | 0.6535 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0150 | 0.0150 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0100 | 0.0090 | 0.0096 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2680 | 0.2820 | 0.2739 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4830 | 0.4920 | 0.4868 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3700 | 0.3420 | 0.3581 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2650 | 0.2378 | 0.2534 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9440 | 0.8670 | 0.9113 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 307 |
| Season rows before report date | 307 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 89 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.211 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260810_TB@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 670764 |
| playerID | 670764 |
| playerName | Taylor Walls |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.268 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.247 |
| sl_xba | 0.185 |
| sl_xslg | 0.249 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 21.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 19.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.106 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.109 | 0.000 | -0.109 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.035 | 0.000 | -0.035 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.835 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.163 | 1.000 | 0.837 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.258 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.238 | 0.000 | 0.012 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.400 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.457 | 0.000 | -0.457 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.066 | 0.000 | -0.066 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.270 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.752 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.058 | 0.000 | -0.058 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.319 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.340 | 0.000 | -0.090 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.365 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.426 | 0.000 | 0.574 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.170 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.426 | 0.000 | -0.426 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.128 | 0.000 | -0.128 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.325 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.349 | 0.000 | -0.099 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.612 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.671 | 0.000 | -0.671 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.8350 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.1650, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.6120 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6120, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.2700 -> 0.4348 (boost 0.1648, better) | predicted_AB: 2.8350 -> 2.7401 (deboost -0.0949, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2560 -> 0.1674 (deboost -0.0886, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.6067 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3933, worse) | predicted_H: 0.4588 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4588, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.020 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 0.3620 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3620, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1674 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1656, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1674 (deboost -0.1656, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "680700",
"player_name": "Richie Palacios",
"position": "2B",
"team": "TB",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.106,
"predicted_3B": 0.024,
"predicted_AB": 2.835,
"predicted_AVG": 0.258,
"predicted_BB": 0.4,
"predicted_H": 0.27,
"predicted_HR": 0.05,
"predicted_OBP": 0.319,
"predicted_R": 0.365,
"predicted_RBI": 0.17,
"predicted_SLG": 0.325,
"predicted_SO": 0.612
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1203,
"predicted_3B": 0.0194,
"predicted_AB": 2.7401,
"predicted_AVG": 0.256,
"predicted_BB": 0.4363,
"predicted_H": 0.4348,
"predicted_HBP": 0.02,
"predicted_HR": 0.0546,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3405,
"predicted_R": 0.33,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2779,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3508,
"predicted_SO": 0.6166
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.106,
"after": 0.1203,
"delta": 0.0143,
"percent_delta": 0.1349,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.024,
"after": 0.0194,
"delta": -0.0046,
"percent_delta": -0.1917,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.835,
"after": 2.7401,
"delta": -0.0949,
"percent_delta": -0.0335,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.258,
"after": 0.256,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -0.0078,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.4363,
"delta": 0.0363,
"percent_delta": 0.0907,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.4348,
"delta": 0.1648,
"percent_delta": 0.6104,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.05,
"after": 0.0546,
"delta": 0.0046,
"percent_delta": 0.092,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.319,
"after": 0.3405,
"delta": 0.0215,
"percent_delta": 0.0674,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.365,
"after": 0.33,
"delta": -0.035,
"percent_delta": -0.0959,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.2779,
"delta": 0.1079,
"percent_delta": 0.6347,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.3508,
"delta": 0.0258,
"percent_delta": 0.0794,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.612,
"after": 0.6166,
"delta": 0.0046,
"percent_delta": 0.0075,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.4348,
"delta": 0.1648,
"percent_delta": 0.6104,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.835,
"after": 2.7401,
"delta": -0.0949,
"percent_delta": -0.0335,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 85
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1203,
"predicted_3B": 0.0194,
"predicted_AB": 2.7401,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1674,
"predicted_BB": 0.4433,
"predicted_H": 0.4588,
"predicted_HBP": 0.02,
"predicted_HR": 0.0571,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2834,
"predicted_R": 0.362,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3049,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2881,
"predicted_SO": 0.6067
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1203,
"after": 0.1203,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0194,
"after": 0.0194,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.7401,
"after": 2.7401,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.256,
"after": 0.1674,
"delta": -0.0886,
"percent_delta": -0.3461,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4363,
"after": 0.4433,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.016,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.4348,
"after": 0.4588,
"delta": 0.024,
"percent_delta": 0.0552,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.02,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0546,
"after": 0.0571,
"delta": 0.0025,
"percent_delta": 0.0458,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3405,
"after": 0.2834,
"delta": -0.0571,
"percent_delta": -0.1677,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.362,
"delta": 0.032,
"percent_delta": 0.097,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2779,
"after": 0.3049,
"delta": 0.027,
"percent_delta": 0.0972,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3508,
"after": 0.2881,
"delta": -0.0627,
"percent_delta": -0.1787,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6166,
"after": 0.6067,
"delta": -0.0099,
"percent_delta": -0.0161,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.256,
"after": 0.1674,
"delta": -0.0886,
"percent_delta": -0.3461,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.020",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1203,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1203,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0194,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0194,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.7401,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.2599,
"percent_delta": 0.0949,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4433,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4433,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.4588,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4588,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.02,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0571,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0571,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3049,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3049,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6067,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3933,
"percent_delta": 0.6483,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6067,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3933,
"percent_delta": 0.6483,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.4588,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4588,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.362,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.362,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
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"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"delta": -1.0,
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}
],
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1674,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2834,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2881,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2834,
"delta": -0.0496,
"percent_delta": -0.149,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2881,
"delta": -0.0449,
"percent_delta": -0.1349,
"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": null,
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"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"delta": -0.106,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.319,
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"delta": -0.0356,
"percent_delta": -0.1116,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.365,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.635,
"percent_delta": 1.7397,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.17,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.2881,
"delta": -0.0369,
"percent_delta": -0.1135,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.612,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.612,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 1.165,
"percent_delta": 0.4109,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.612,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.612,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.106 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.835 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.258 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.400 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.270 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.319 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.365 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.325 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.612 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.120 | 0.014 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 2.740 | -0.095 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.256 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.436 | 0.036 |
| predicted_H | 0.435 | 0.165 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.055 | 0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.341 | 0.022 |
| predicted_R | 0.330 | -0.035 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.278 | 0.108 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.351 | 0.026 |
| predicted_SO | 0.617 | 0.005 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.120 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.740 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.167 | -0.089 |
| predicted_BB | 0.443 | 0.007 |
| predicted_H | 0.459 | 0.024 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.057 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | -0.057 |
| predicted_R | 0.362 | 0.032 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.305 | 0.027 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.288 | -0.063 |
| predicted_SO | 0.607 | -0.010 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.020
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.120 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.260 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.166 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.443 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.541 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.057 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.050 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.362 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.305 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.045 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.393 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 9.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 0.3333 | 0.5000 | 0.4444 | 0.3333 | 0.0000 | 0.2222 | 0.3333 | 0.2222 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 21.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 0.2381 | 0.3846 | 0.4286 | 0.2381 | 0.0476 | 0.1905 | 0.2381 | 0.3333 |
| season | 0.60 | 85 | - | 241.000 | 56.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 34.000 | 31.000 | 34.000 | 52.000 | 0.2324 | 0.3333 | 0.3485 | 0.2324 | 0.0208 | 0.1411 | 0.1411 | 0.2158 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1400 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 |
| predicted_AB | 2.6100 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2532 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4860 |
| predicted_H | 0.6610 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0200 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0610 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3700 |
| predicted_R | 0.2820 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4260 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3862 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6230 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1060 | 0.1400 | 0.1203 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0240 | 0.0130 | 0.0194 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.8350 | 2.6100 | 2.7401 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2580 | 0.2532 | 0.2560 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4000 | 0.4860 | 0.4363 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.2700 | 0.6610 | 0.4348 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0200 | 0.0200 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0500 | 0.0610 | 0.0546 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3190 | 0.3700 | 0.3405 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3650 | 0.2820 | 0.3300 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1700 | 0.4260 | 0.2779 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3250 | 0.3862 | 0.3508 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6120 | 0.6230 | 0.6166 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 258 |
| Season rows before report date | 258 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 85 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.232 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260810_TB@OAK |
| game_type | short |
| mlbID | 680700 |
| playerID | 680700 |
| playerName | Richie Palacios |
| pos | 2B |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.31 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.31 |
| sl_xba | 0.243 |
| sl_xslg | 0.335 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 27.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.909 | 0.000 | 2.091 | 3.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 1.727 | 0.000 | -0.727 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_H | 5.545 | 6.000 | -2.545 | -3.000 |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.736 | 5.200 | 0.264 | 0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_SO | 3.318 | 4.000 | 0.682 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | pitcher_quality_guardrail | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "607259",
"player_name": "Nick Martinez",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "TB",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
"description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | - |
Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 29.000 | 9.000 | 27.000 | 2.000 | 12.000 | 5.000 | 2.7931 | 1.0000 | 0.3103 | 0.9310 | 0.0690 | 0.4138 | 0.1724 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 58.100 | 20.000 | 51.000 | 7.000 | 31.000 | 9.000 | 3.0857 | 0.9943 | 0.3429 | 0.8743 | 0.1200 | 0.5314 | 0.1543 |
| season | 0.20 | 22 | 129.000 | 38.000 | 122.000 | 20.000 | 73.000 | 15.000 | 2.6512 | 1.1008 | 0.2946 | 0.9457 | 0.1550 | 0.5659 | 0.1163 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.8900 |
| predicted_ER | 2.0680 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.1671 |
| predicted_H | 5.4370 |
| predicted_HR | 0.9030 |
| predicted_IP | 6.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 3.3680 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0765 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.0000 | 0.8900 | 1.7936 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 2.0680 | 1.6106 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.1671 | 3.1671 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 3.0000 | 5.4370 | 4.3934 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.9030 | 0.9445 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 6.0000 | 6.0000 | 6.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 4.0000 | 3.3680 | 3.6387 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0765 | 1.0765 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 22 |
| Season rows before report date | 22 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 22 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 6.0 |
| H | 3 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 3 |
| SO | 4 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 24 |
| Pitches | 97 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 22 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.65 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 4 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 7 |
| Pitching_H | 6 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 75 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 4 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 52 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | W |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260805_TB@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 607259 |
| playerID | 607259 |
| playerName | Nick Martinez |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-08-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.295 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.329 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 17.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.8 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.548859762 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.269601217 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.312 | 0.000 | -0.312 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.167 | 0.000 | -0.167 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.500 | 1.000 | -0.500 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.946 | 1.000 | 0.154 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.062 | 0.000 | -1.062 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "641329",
"player_name": "Bryan Baker",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "TB",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 1.8000 | 0.8000 | 0.2000 | 0.4000 | 0.4000 | 1.6000 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.9000 | 0.9000 | 0.1000 | 0.5000 | 0.4000 | 1.0000 | 0.1000 |
| season | 0.20 | 48 | 46.100 | 8.000 | 24.000 | 15.000 | 51.000 | 3.000 | 1.5540 | 0.8417 | 0.1727 | 0.5180 | 0.3237 | 1.1007 | 0.0648 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3760 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2780 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.5052 |
| predicted_H | 0.6390 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1420 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1740 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0149 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3760 | 0.1887 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2780 | 0.1395 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.5052 | 2.5052 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.6390 | 0.3207 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1420 | 0.0713 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.1740 | 0.5892 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0149 | 1.0149 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 48 |
| Season rows before report date | 48 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 48 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 11 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 1.55 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 9 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 6 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | S |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 7 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260808_TB@SEA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 641329 |
| playerID | 641329 |
| playerName | Bryan Baker |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-08-08 |
| sl_k_percent | 28.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.218 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.258 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.5 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 74.849057455 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.338768545 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.176 | 0.000 | -0.176 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.235 | 0.000 | -0.235 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.706 | 0.000 | 0.294 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.927 | 1.000 | 0.073 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.843 | 0.000 | 0.157 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "687330",
"player_name": "Kevin Kelly",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "TB",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.6923 | 0.0000 | 0.4615 | 0.2308 | 0.2308 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.200 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 11.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.3750 | 0.0000 | 0.2812 | 0.0938 | 1.0312 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 51 | 55.000 | 12.000 | 36.000 | 9.000 | 43.000 | 4.000 | 1.9636 | 0.8182 | 0.2182 | 0.6545 | 0.1636 | 0.7818 | 0.0727 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2290 |
| predicted_ER | 0.1860 |
| predicted_ERA | 1.6721 |
| predicted_H | 0.6040 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0560 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7270 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.8335 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.2290 | 0.1186 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.1860 | 0.0963 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 1.6721 | 1.6721 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.6040 | 0.7949 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0560 | 0.0290 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.7270 | 0.8586 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.8335 | 0.8335 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 51 |
| Season rows before report date | 51 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 51 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 16 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 1.96 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 7 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 4 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_TB@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 687330 |
| playerID | 687330 |
| playerName | Kevin Kelly |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 4.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.233 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.295 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 78.595830704 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.743334648 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.381 | 0.000 | -0.381 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.310 | 1.000 | -0.310 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.667 | 2.000 | -0.667 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.738 | 0.200 | -0.538 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.143 | 1.000 | -1.143 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "664076",
"player_name": "Garrett Cleavinger",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "TB",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.6667,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 3.0000 | 1.3333 | 0.3333 | 1.0000 | 0.3333 | 1.0000 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 7.200 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 1.1739 | 0.7826 | 0.1304 | 0.3913 | 0.3913 | 1.3043 | 0.1304 |
| season | 0.20 | 42 | 35.200 | 13.000 | 28.000 | 16.000 | 48.000 | 5.000 | 3.2804 | 1.2336 | 0.3645 | 0.7851 | 0.4486 | 1.3458 | 0.1402 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2610 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2560 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.2700 |
| predicted_H | 0.5920 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1360 |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7670 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2081 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.2610 | 0.1242 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2560 | 0.1218 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.2700 | 3.2700 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.5920 | 0.2817 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1360 | 0.0647 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.7670 | 0.3650 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2081 | 1.2081 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 42 |
| Season rows before report date | 42 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 42 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 0.2 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 13 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.28 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 13 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 10 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260808_TB@SEA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 664076 |
| playerID | 664076 |
| playerName | Garrett Cleavinger |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | TB |
| teamID | 27 |
| game_date | 2026-08-08 |
| sl_k_percent | 32.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.301 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.303 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 73.507333659 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.002983902 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Mason Barnett |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0726 |
| ESPN Rank | 475 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0554 |
| Avg Velo | 88.9224 |
| Avg Spin | 2428.2267 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 4.1000 |
| Pre ER | 5 |
| Pre H | 8 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 6 |
| Season ERA | 5.5588 |
| Season WHIP | 1.3824 |
| Role Avg IP | 4.6670 |
| Recent Avg IP | 4.6670 |
| Last Start IP | 4.1000 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "OAK",
"games": 124,
"wins": 49,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.3952,
"runs_scored": 546.0,
"runs_allowed": 712.0,
"run_differential": -166.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -1.3387,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4032,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7419,
"offense_index": 0.9803,
"defense_index": 0.7822,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 7.5,
"run_differential": -39.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.358
},
"opponent": {
"team": "TB",
"games": 126,
"wins": 75,
"losses": 51,
"win_pct": 0.5952,
"runs_scored": 546.0,
"runs_allowed": 506.0,
"run_differential": 40.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3175,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.3333,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.0159,
"offense_index": 0.9648,
"defense_index": 1.1185,
"current_streak": "W7",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
"run_differential": 7.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2248
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.5828,
"offense_edge": -0.0197,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0352,
"defense_strength": -0.2178,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1185,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.6
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9716,
"run_prevention": 1.0453,
"strikeout": 0.9853
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "686930",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "686930",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 89.0,
"k_percent": 24.5,
"bb_percent": 11.6,
"woba": 0.35,
"xwoba": 0.323,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
"avg_best_speed": 79.1392,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.2284,
"whiff_percent": 24.2,
"swing_percent": 44.5
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.3939,
"command_and_miss": -0.0521,
"regression_edge": 0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": -0.3429,
"barrel_edge": -0.6,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0429,
"whiff_edge": -0.1857,
"bb_edge": -0.675,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0554
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "686930",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 27,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 27,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.92244362451912,
"release_spin_rate": 2428.2267131437075,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 27,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.92244362451912,
"release_spin_rate": 2428.2267131437075,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.9224,
"release_spin_rate": 2428.2267,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0554,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.3957,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.0726,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0062,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0026,
"walk_factor": 1.0243,
"homer_factor": 1.027,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.027,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "686930",
"espn_id": 4620704,
"player_name": "Mason Barnett",
"team": "ATH",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 475,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 475,
"gp_value": 16.0,
"gp_rank": 394,
"gs_value": 2.0,
"gs_rank": 253,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 5.5588,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 1.0,
"w_rank": 368,
"l_value": 2.0,
"l_rank": 279,
"sv_value": 2.0,
"sv_rank": 75,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 34.0,
"ip_rank": 364,
"h_value": 30.0,
"h_rank": 359,
"er_value": 21.0,
"er_rank": 243,
"hr_value": 8.0,
"hr_rank": 171,
"bb_value": 17.0,
"bb_rank": 279,
"k_value": 36.0,
"k_rank": 328,
"k_per_9_value": 9.529412,
"k_per_9_rank": 24,
"whip_value": 1.3823,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.0,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 4.0,
"factor": 1.0028,
"adjusted": 4
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 1.0028,
"adjusted": 5
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0109,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0121,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 7.0,
"factor": 1.0012,
"adjusted": 7
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 21.1,
"ER": 20,
"H": 24,
"BB": 12,
"SO": 21,
"HR": 7,
"ERA": 8.4375,
"WHIP": 1.6875,
"K9": 8.859375,
"HR9": 2.953125,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-06T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "686930",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 27,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 27,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.92244362451912,
"release_spin_rate": 2428.2267131437075,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 27,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.92244362451912,
"release_spin_rate": 2428.2267131437075,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.9224,
"release_spin_rate": 2428.2267,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0554,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.3957,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 6.8,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5763,
"prior_weight": 0.4237
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "686930",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 16,
"reference_playing_time": 5.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 14.2,
"ER": 13.0,
"R": 13.0,
"H": 16.0,
"BB": 8.0,
"SO": 15.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 69.0,
"Pitches": 259.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 3.0,
"ER": 2.6,
"R": 2.6,
"H": 3.2,
"BB": 1.6,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 0.6,
"BF": 13.8,
"Pitches": 51.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 7.9773,
"WHIP": 1.6364,
"ER_per_IP": 0.88636,
"H_per_IP": 1.09091,
"BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
"SO_per_IP": 1.02273,
"HR_per_IP": 0.20455
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 21.1,
"ER": 20.0,
"R": 20.0,
"H": 24.0,
"BB": 12.0,
"SO": 21.0,
"HR": 7.0,
"BF": 99.0,
"Pitches": 381.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 2.0,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 2.4,
"BB": 1.2,
"SO": 2.1,
"HR": 0.7,
"BF": 9.9,
"Pitches": 38.1
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 8.4375,
"WHIP": 1.6875,
"ER_per_IP": 0.9375,
"H_per_IP": 1.125,
"BB_per_IP": 0.5625,
"SO_per_IP": 0.98438,
"HR_per_IP": 0.32812
}
},
"season": {
"games": 16,
"totals": {
"IP": 34.0,
"ER": 21.0,
"R": 21.0,
"H": 30.0,
"BB": 17.0,
"SO": 36.0,
"HR": 8.0,
"BF": 147.0,
"Pitches": 593.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 2.0,
"ER": 1.3125,
"R": 1.3125,
"H": 1.875,
"BB": 1.0625,
"SO": 2.25,
"HR": 0.5,
"BF": 9.1875,
"Pitches": 37.0625
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.5588,
"WHIP": 1.3824,
"ER_per_IP": 0.61765,
"H_per_IP": 0.88235,
"BB_per_IP": 0.5,
"SO_per_IP": 1.05882,
"HR_per_IP": 0.23529
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 3.2,
"predicted_ER": 2.476,
"predicted_H": 3.614,
"predicted_BB": 1.642,
"predicted_SO": 3.502,
"predicted_HR": 0.739,
"predicted_ERA": 6.3125,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.4889
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.529,
"form_weight": 0.471,
"form_reliability": 0.5763,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 6.8,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5763,
"prior_weight": 0.4237
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 3.2,
"final": 4.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 2.476,
"final": 3.8112,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 8.0,
"form": 3.614,
"final": 5.9343,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.642,
"final": 1.3024,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 6.0,
"form": 3.502,
"final": 4.8235,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.739,
"final": 0.8771,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 6.3125,
"final": 6.3125,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.4889,
"final": 1.4889,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Luis Medina |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0968 |
| ESPN Rank | 191 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 3.4177 |
| Season WHIP | 1.3671 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "OAK",
"games": 124,
"wins": 49,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.3952,
"runs_scored": 546.0,
"runs_allowed": 712.0,
"run_differential": -166.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -1.3387,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4032,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7419,
"offense_index": 0.9803,
"defense_index": 0.7822,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 7.5,
"run_differential": -39.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.358
},
"opponent": {
"team": "TB",
"games": 126,
"wins": 75,
"losses": 51,
"win_pct": 0.5952,
"runs_scored": 546.0,
"runs_allowed": 506.0,
"run_differential": 40.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3175,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.3333,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.0159,
"offense_index": 0.9648,
"defense_index": 1.1185,
"current_streak": "W7",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
"run_differential": 7.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2248
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.5828,
"offense_edge": -0.0197,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0352,
"defense_strength": -0.2178,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1185,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.6
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9716,
"run_prevention": 1.0453,
"strikeout": 0.9853
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "665622",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "665622",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 193.0,
"k_percent": 27.0,
"bb_percent": 11.2,
"woba": 0.334,
"xwoba": 0.326,
"sweet_spot_percent": 39.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
"avg_best_speed": 80.1616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.3099,
"whiff_percent": 30.2,
"swing_percent": 43.4
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.4638,
"command_and_miss": 0.4286,
"regression_edge": 0.2286,
"xwoba_edge": -0.4286,
"barrel_edge": -0.3556,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.1857,
"whiff_edge": 0.6714,
"bb_edge": -0.575,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "665622",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": -0.0968,
"sample_weight": 0.772,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0082,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0419,
"walk_factor": 1.0355,
"homer_factor": 1.0376,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.008,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "665622",
"espn_id": 40949,
"player_name": "Luis Medina",
"team": "ATH",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 191,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 191,
"gp_value": 40.0,
"gp_rank": 121,
"gs_value": 1.0,
"gs_rank": 279,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 3.7594,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 2.0,
"w_rank": 281,
"l_value": 3.0,
"l_rank": 192,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 6.0,
"hld_rank": 124,
"ip_value": 52.2,
"ip_rank": 212,
"h_value": 52.0,
"h_rank": 181,
"er_value": 22.0,
"er_rank": 231,
"hr_value": 6.0,
"hr_rank": 227,
"bb_value": 26.0,
"bb_rank": 155,
"k_value": 63.0,
"k_rank": 160,
"k_per_9_value": 10.765822,
"k_per_9_rank": 20,
"whip_value": 1.481,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.77,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0063,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0063,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0274,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.029,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 1.0323,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 11.1,
"ER": 5,
"H": 12,
"BB": 4,
"SO": 14,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 3.9705882352941173,
"WHIP": 1.4117647058823528,
"K9": 11.117647058823529,
"HR9": 1.588235294117647,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-08T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "665622",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.533,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6781,
"prior_weight": 0.3219
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "665622",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 38,
"reference_playing_time": 1.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 7.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 6.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 25.0,
"Pitches": 100.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.6,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 1.4,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.2,
"HR": 0.4,
"BF": 5.0,
"Pitches": 20.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.7647,
"WHIP": 1.5882,
"ER_per_IP": 0.52941,
"H_per_IP": 1.23529,
"BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
"SO_per_IP": 1.05882,
"HR_per_IP": 0.35294
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 11.1,
"ER": 5.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 12.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 14.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 50.0,
"Pitches": 205.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.5,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.4,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 5.0,
"Pitches": 20.5
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.9706,
"WHIP": 1.4118,
"ER_per_IP": 0.44118,
"H_per_IP": 1.05882,
"BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
"SO_per_IP": 1.23529,
"HR_per_IP": 0.17647
}
},
"season": {
"games": 38,
"totals": {
"IP": 52.2,
"ER": 20.0,
"R": 22.0,
"H": 47.0,
"BB": 25.0,
"SO": 63.0,
"HR": 6.0,
"BF": 226.0,
"Pitches": 890.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.5263,
"R": 0.5789,
"H": 1.2368,
"BB": 0.6579,
"SO": 1.6579,
"HR": 0.1579,
"BF": 5.9474,
"Pitches": 23.4211
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.4177,
"WHIP": 1.3671,
"ER_per_IP": 0.37975,
"H_per_IP": 0.89241,
"BB_per_IP": 0.47468,
"SO_per_IP": 1.1962,
"HR_per_IP": 0.11392
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.551,
"predicted_H": 1.224,
"predicted_BB": 0.428,
"predicted_SO": 1.253,
"predicted_HR": 0.245,
"predicted_ERA": 4.3041,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.4342
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.486,
"form_weight": 0.514,
"form_reliability": 0.6781,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.533,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6781,
"prior_weight": 0.3219
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.1,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.551,
"final": 0.2832,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.224,
"final": 0.6291,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.428,
"final": 0.22,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.253,
"final": 1.13,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.245,
"final": 0.1259,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.3041,
"final": 4.3041,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.4342,
"final": 1.4342,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Elvis Alvarado |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.1633 |
| ESPN Rank | 234 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 4.4587 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2110 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "OAK",
"games": 124,
"wins": 49,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.3952,
"runs_scored": 546.0,
"runs_allowed": 712.0,
"run_differential": -166.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -1.3387,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4032,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7419,
"offense_index": 0.9803,
"defense_index": 0.7822,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 7.5,
"run_differential": -39.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.358
},
"opponent": {
"team": "TB",
"games": 126,
"wins": 75,
"losses": 51,
"win_pct": 0.5952,
"runs_scored": 546.0,
"runs_allowed": 506.0,
"run_differential": 40.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3175,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.3333,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.0159,
"offense_index": 0.9648,
"defense_index": 1.1185,
"current_streak": "W7",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
"run_differential": 7.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2248
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.5828,
"offense_edge": -0.0197,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0352,
"defense_strength": -0.2178,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1185,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.6
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9716,
"run_prevention": 1.0453,
"strikeout": 0.9853
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "665660",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "665660",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 120.0,
"k_percent": 30.4,
"bb_percent": 11.5,
"woba": 0.33,
"xwoba": 0.339,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 17.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 48.8,
"avg_best_speed": 78.9822,
"avg_hyper_speed": 95.2954,
"whiff_percent": 32.6,
"swing_percent": 51.4
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.9108,
"command_and_miss": 0.7521,
"regression_edge": -0.2571,
"xwoba_edge": -0.8,
"barrel_edge": -2.4,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.5857,
"whiff_edge": 1.0143,
"bb_edge": -0.65,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "665660",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": -0.1633,
"sample_weight": 0.48,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0139,
"strikeout_factor": 1.042,
"walk_factor": 1.025,
"homer_factor": 1.1341,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "665660",
"espn_id": 42211,
"player_name": "Elvis Alvarado",
"team": "ATH",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 234,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 234,
"gp_value": 35.0,
"gp_rank": 160,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 4.4587,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 4.0,
"w_rank": 147,
"l_value": 3.0,
"l_rank": 192,
"sv_value": 2.0,
"sv_rank": 75,
"hld_value": 5.0,
"hld_rank": 147,
"ip_value": 36.1,
"ip_rank": 335,
"h_value": 27.0,
"h_rank": 392,
"er_value": 18.0,
"er_rank": 295,
"hr_value": 7.0,
"hr_rank": 192,
"bb_value": 17.0,
"bb_rank": 279,
"k_value": 45.0,
"k_rank": 268,
"k_per_9_value": 11.14679,
"k_per_9_rank": 21,
"whip_value": 1.211,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.52,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0067,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0067,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.012,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0644,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0202,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 3,
"H": 6,
"BB": 7,
"SO": 10,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 3.0000000000000004,
"WHIP": 1.4444444444444446,
"K9": 10.000000000000002,
"HR9": 2.0000000000000004,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-09T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "665660",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 7.266,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5924,
"prior_weight": 0.4076
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "665660",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 35,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
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"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 6.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 16.0,
"Pitches": 69.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.2,
"BB": 0.6,
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},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.23077,
"BB_per_IP": 0.69231,
"SO_per_IP": 1.38462,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
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"totals": {
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"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 7.0,
"SO": 10.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 39.0,
"Pitches": 154.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.3,
"R": 0.3,
"H": 0.6,
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},
"rates": {
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"H_per_IP": 0.66667,
"BB_per_IP": 0.77778,
"SO_per_IP": 1.11111,
"HR_per_IP": 0.22222
}
},
"season": {
"games": 35,
"totals": {
"IP": 36.1,
"ER": 18.0,
"R": 18.0,
"H": 27.0,
"BB": 17.0,
"SO": 45.0,
"HR": 7.0,
"BF": 148.0,
"Pitches": 626.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.5143,
"R": 0.5143,
"H": 0.7714,
"BB": 0.4857,
"SO": 1.2857,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 4.2286,
"Pitches": 17.8857
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.211,
"ER_per_IP": 0.49541,
"H_per_IP": 0.74312,
"BB_per_IP": 0.46789,
"SO_per_IP": 1.23853,
"HR_per_IP": 0.19266
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.331,
"predicted_H": 0.684,
"predicted_BB": 0.548,
"predicted_SO": 1.137,
"predicted_HR": 0.129,
"predicted_ERA": 2.9791,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2323
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5222,
"form_weight": 0.4778,
"form_reliability": 0.5924,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 7.266,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5924,
"prior_weight": 0.4076
},
"applied_metrics": {
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"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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"final": 0.1581,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"form": 0.684,
"final": 0.3268,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"form": 0.548,
"final": 0.2618,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"form": 1.137,
"final": 1.5877,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"form": 0.129,
"final": 0.0616,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.9791,
"final": 2.9791,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.2323,
"final": 1.2323,
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}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Hogan Harris |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.1680 |
| ESPN Rank | 117 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 3.6346 |
| Season WHIP | 1.5769 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "OAK",
"games": 124,
"wins": 49,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.3952,
"runs_scored": 546.0,
"runs_allowed": 712.0,
"run_differential": -166.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -1.3387,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4032,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7419,
"offense_index": 0.9803,
"defense_index": 0.7822,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 7.5,
"run_differential": -39.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.358
},
"opponent": {
"team": "TB",
"games": 126,
"wins": 75,
"losses": 51,
"win_pct": 0.5952,
"runs_scored": 546.0,
"runs_allowed": 506.0,
"run_differential": 40.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3175,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.3333,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.0159,
"offense_index": 0.9648,
"defense_index": 1.1185,
"current_streak": "W7",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
"run_differential": 7.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2248
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.5828,
"offense_edge": -0.0197,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0352,
"defense_strength": -0.2178,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1185,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.6
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9716,
"run_prevention": 1.0453,
"strikeout": 0.9853
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "663687",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "663687",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 198.0,
"k_percent": 29.3,
"bb_percent": 14.2,
"woba": 0.328,
"xwoba": 0.303,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.1,
"avg_best_speed": 76.1927,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.0276,
"whiff_percent": 27.6,
"swing_percent": 42.4
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.1137,
"command_and_miss": 0.2964,
"regression_edge": 0.7143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.2286,
"barrel_edge": 0.2,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6571,
"whiff_edge": 0.3,
"bb_edge": -1.325,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "663687",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.168,
"sample_weight": 0.792,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9857,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0416,
"walk_factor": 1.084,
"homer_factor": 0.9611,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.025,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "663687",
"espn_id": 41364,
"player_name": "Hogan Harris",
"team": "ATH",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 117,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 117,
"gp_value": 55.0,
"gp_rank": 8,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 3.6346,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 3.0,
"w_rank": 206,
"l_value": 1.0,
"l_rank": 381,
"sv_value": 11.0,
"sv_rank": 25,
"hld_value": 10.0,
"hld_rank": 59,
"ip_value": 52.0,
"ip_rank": 215,
"h_value": 48.0,
"h_rank": 202,
"er_value": 21.0,
"er_rank": 243,
"hr_value": 6.0,
"hr_rank": 227,
"bb_value": 34.0,
"bb_rank": 79,
"k_value": 70.0,
"k_rank": 138,
"k_per_9_value": 12.115385,
"k_per_9_rank": 17,
"whip_value": 1.5769,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 1.31,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9887,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9887,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0665,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9692,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 1.0329,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 5,
"H": 10,
"BB": 7,
"SO": 14,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 4.500000000000001,
"WHIP": 1.7000000000000004,
"K9": 12.600000000000001,
"HR9": 0.9000000000000001,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-09T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "663687",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.399,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6753,
"prior_weight": 0.3247
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "663687",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 55,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 5.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 8.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 8.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 29.0,
"Pitches": 123.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 1.6,
"BB": 1.2,
"SO": 1.6,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 5.8,
"Pitches": 24.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 8.4375,
"WHIP": 2.625,
"ER_per_IP": 0.9375,
"H_per_IP": 1.5,
"BB_per_IP": 1.125,
"SO_per_IP": 1.5,
"HR_per_IP": 0.1875
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
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"ER": 5.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 10.0,
"BB": 7.0,
"SO": 14.0,
"HR": 1.0,
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"Pitches": 196.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.5,
"R": 0.5,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.7,
"SO": 1.4,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 4.6,
"Pitches": 19.6
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.7,
"ER_per_IP": 0.5,
"H_per_IP": 1.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.7,
"SO_per_IP": 1.4,
"HR_per_IP": 0.1
}
},
"season": {
"games": 55,
"totals": {
"IP": 52.0,
"ER": 21.0,
"R": 22.0,
"H": 48.0,
"BB": 34.0,
"SO": 70.0,
"HR": 6.0,
"BF": 239.0,
"Pitches": 1007.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.3818,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 0.8727,
"BB": 0.6182,
"SO": 1.2727,
"HR": 0.1091,
"BF": 4.3455,
"Pitches": 18.3091
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.5769,
"ER_per_IP": 0.40385,
"H_per_IP": 0.92308,
"BB_per_IP": 0.65385,
"SO_per_IP": 1.34615,
"HR_per_IP": 0.11538
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.619,
"predicted_H": 1.133,
"predicted_BB": 0.713,
"predicted_SO": 1.28,
"predicted_HR": 0.144,
"predicted_ERA": 5.5754,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.8453
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4872,
"form_weight": 0.5128,
"form_reliability": 0.6753,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.399,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6753,
"prior_weight": 0.3247
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.619,
"final": 0.3174,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.133,
"final": 1.0682,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.713,
"final": 0.8528,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.28,
"final": 1.1436,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.144,
"final": 0.0738,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 5.5754,
"final": 5.5754,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.8453,
"final": 1.8453,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | José Suarez |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.2683 |
| ESPN Rank | 490 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 5.2159 |
| Season WHIP | 1.5000 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "OAK",
"games": 124,
"wins": 49,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.3952,
"runs_scored": 546.0,
"runs_allowed": 712.0,
"run_differential": -166.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -1.3387,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4032,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7419,
"offense_index": 0.9803,
"defense_index": 0.7822,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 2,
"losses": 8,
"win_pct": 0.2,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 7.5,
"run_differential": -39.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.358
},
"opponent": {
"team": "TB",
"games": 126,
"wins": 75,
"losses": 51,
"win_pct": 0.5952,
"runs_scored": 546.0,
"runs_allowed": 506.0,
"run_differential": 40.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3175,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.3333,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.0159,
"offense_index": 0.9648,
"defense_index": 1.1185,
"current_streak": "W7",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
"run_differential": 7.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2248
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.5828,
"offense_edge": -0.0197,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0352,
"defense_strength": -0.2178,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1185,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.6
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9716,
"run_prevention": 1.0453,
"strikeout": 0.9853
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "660761",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "660761",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 227.0,
"k_percent": 23.3,
"bb_percent": 9.5,
"woba": 0.336,
"xwoba": 0.297,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 2.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.3,
"avg_best_speed": 77.8116,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.0502,
"whiff_percent": 27.2,
"swing_percent": 48.7
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.2703,
"command_and_miss": 0.1257,
"regression_edge": 1.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4,
"barrel_edge": 1.0444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7714,
"whiff_edge": 0.2429,
"bb_edge": -0.15,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "660761",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.2683,
"sample_weight": 0.908,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9772,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0145,
"walk_factor": 1.0109,
"homer_factor": 0.8852,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.039,
"regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "660761",
"espn_id": 40981,
"player_name": "Jose Suarez",
"team": "ATH",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 490,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 490,
"gp_value": 42.0,
"gp_rank": 104,
"gs_value": 2.0,
"gs_rank": 253,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 5.2159,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 1.0,
"w_rank": 368,
"l_value": 4.0,
"l_rank": 138,
"sv_value": 1.0,
"sv_rank": 115,
"hld_value": 3.0,
"hld_rank": 188,
"ip_value": 58.2,
"ip_rank": 180,
"h_value": 63.0,
"h_rank": 153,
"er_value": 34.0,
"er_rank": 139,
"hr_value": 6.0,
"hr_rank": 227,
"bb_value": 25.0,
"bb_rank": 169,
"k_value": 60.0,
"k_rank": 173,
"k_per_9_value": 9.204546,
"k_per_9_rank": 25,
"whip_value": 1.5,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": -0.01,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9793,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9793,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0099,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.8958,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0132,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 7.1,
"ER": 8,
"H": 7,
"BB": 3,
"SO": 4,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 9.818181818181818,
"WHIP": 1.3636363636363638,
"K9": 4.909090909090909,
"HR9": 2.4545454545454546,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "660761",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 11.733,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7012,
"prior_weight": 0.2988
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "660761",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 42,
"reference_playing_time": 0.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 3.1,
"ER": 6.0,
"R": 7.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 17.0,
"Pitches": 71.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 1.2,
"R": 1.4,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 0.2,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 3.4,
"Pitches": 14.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 16.2,
"WHIP": 2.1,
"ER_per_IP": 1.8,
"H_per_IP": 1.5,
"BB_per_IP": 0.6,
"SO_per_IP": 0.3,
"HR_per_IP": 0.3
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 7.1,
"ER": 8.0,
"R": 9.0,
"H": 7.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 4.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 31.0,
"Pitches": 131.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.8,
"R": 0.9,
"H": 0.7,
"BB": 0.3,
"SO": 0.4,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 3.1,
"Pitches": 13.1
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 9.8182,
"WHIP": 1.3636,
"ER_per_IP": 1.09091,
"H_per_IP": 0.95455,
"BB_per_IP": 0.40909,
"SO_per_IP": 0.54545,
"HR_per_IP": 0.27273
}
},
"season": {
"games": 42,
"totals": {
"IP": 58.2,
"ER": 34.0,
"R": 37.0,
"H": 63.0,
"BB": 25.0,
"SO": 60.0,
"HR": 6.0,
"BF": 258.0,
"Pitches": 1016.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.8095,
"R": 0.881,
"H": 1.5,
"BB": 0.5952,
"SO": 1.4286,
"HR": 0.1429,
"BF": 6.1429,
"Pitches": 24.1905
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.2159,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.57955,
"H_per_IP": 1.07386,
"BB_per_IP": 0.42614,
"SO_per_IP": 1.02273,
"HR_per_IP": 0.10227
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_ER": 0.81,
"predicted_H": 0.873,
"predicted_BB": 0.347,
"predicted_SO": 0.5,
"predicted_HR": 0.167,
"predicted_ERA": 9.5935,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.6059
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4762,
"form_weight": 0.5238,
"form_reliability": 0.7012,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 11.733,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7012,
"prior_weight": 0.2988
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.2,
"form": 0.2,
"final": 0.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.81,
"final": 0.4242,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.873,
"final": 0.4572,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.347,
"final": 0.1817,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.5,
"final": 0.2619,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.167,
"final": 0.0875,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 9.5935,
"final": 9.5935,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.6059,
"final": 1.6059,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.196 | 1.000 | -0.196 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 | -0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.609 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.780 | 4.000 | 0.220 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.277 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.280 | 0.500 | -0.030 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.219 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.244 | 0.000 | -0.244 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.016 | 0.000 | -0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.060 | 2.000 | -0.060 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.188 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.196 | 1.000 | 0.804 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.337 | 0.500 | -0.087 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.641 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.712 | 2.000 | 0.288 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.484 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.492 | 2.000 | 0.508 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.494 | 1.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.498 | 1.500 | 0.502 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.984 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.052 | 1.000 | -0.052 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_HR: 0.1880 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8120, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.2190 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2190, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4940 -> 0.4797 (deboost -0.0143, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_R: 0.6443 -> 0.5837 (deboost -0.0606, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 3.6241 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.3759, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4203 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4203, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.047 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5837 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4163, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4591 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.2091, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4591 (boost 0.2091, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "680869",
"player_name": "Zack Gelof",
"position": "LF",
"team": "OAK",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.188,
"predicted_3B": 0.016,
"predicted_AB": 3.609,
"predicted_AVG": 0.277,
"predicted_BB": 0.219,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.188,
"predicted_OBP": 0.318,
"predicted_R": 0.641,
"predicted_RBI": 0.484,
"predicted_SLG": 0.494,
"predicted_SO": 0.984
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1972,
"predicted_3B": 0.0135,
"predicted_AB": 3.6241,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2693,
"predicted_BB": 0.2039,
"predicted_H": 0.9757,
"predicted_HBP": 0.074,
"predicted_HR": 0.1796,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3131,
"predicted_R": 0.6443,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4639,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4797,
"predicted_SO": 1.0242
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.188,
"after": 0.1972,
"delta": 0.0092,
"percent_delta": 0.0489,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.0135,
"delta": -0.0025,
"percent_delta": -0.1563,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.609,
"after": 3.6241,
"delta": 0.0151,
"percent_delta": 0.0042,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.277,
"after": 0.2693,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -0.0278,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.219,
"after": 0.2039,
"delta": -0.0151,
"percent_delta": -0.0689,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.9757,
"delta": -0.0243,
"percent_delta": -0.0243,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.188,
"after": 0.1796,
"delta": -0.0084,
"percent_delta": -0.0447,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.318,
"after": 0.3131,
"delta": -0.0049,
"percent_delta": -0.0154,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.641,
"after": 0.6443,
"delta": 0.0033,
"percent_delta": 0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.484,
"after": 0.4639,
"delta": -0.0201,
"percent_delta": -0.0415,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.494,
"after": 0.4797,
"delta": -0.0143,
"percent_delta": -0.0289,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.984,
"after": 1.0242,
"delta": 0.0402,
"percent_delta": 0.0409,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.494,
"after": 0.4797,
"delta": -0.0143,
"percent_delta": -0.0289,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 64
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1972,
"predicted_3B": 0.0135,
"predicted_AB": 3.6241,
"predicted_AVG": 0.255,
"predicted_BB": 0.2002,
"predicted_H": 0.9242,
"predicted_HBP": 0.074,
"predicted_HR": 0.1718,
"predicted_OBP": 0.294,
"predicted_R": 0.5837,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4203,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4591,
"predicted_SO": 1.0429
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1972,
"after": 0.1972,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0135,
"after": 0.0135,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6241,
"after": 3.6241,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2693,
"after": 0.255,
"delta": -0.0143,
"percent_delta": -0.0531,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2039,
"after": 0.2002,
"delta": -0.0037,
"percent_delta": -0.0181,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9757,
"after": 0.9242,
"delta": -0.0515,
"percent_delta": -0.0528,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.074,
"after": 0.074,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1796,
"after": 0.1718,
"delta": -0.0078,
"percent_delta": -0.0434,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3131,
"after": 0.294,
"delta": -0.0191,
"percent_delta": -0.061,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6443,
"after": 0.5837,
"delta": -0.0606,
"percent_delta": -0.0941,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4639,
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"percent_delta": -0.0755,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.641,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.359,
"percent_delta": 0.5601,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.484,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.516,
"percent_delta": 1.0661,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.494,
"after": 0.4591,
"delta": -0.0349,
"percent_delta": -0.0706,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.984,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.016,
"percent_delta": 0.0163,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.188,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.812,
"percent_delta": 4.3191,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.219,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.219,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.609 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.277 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.219 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.188 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.641 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.484 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.494 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.984 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.197 | 0.009 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.624 | 0.015 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.269 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.204 | -0.015 |
| predicted_H | 0.976 | -0.024 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.074 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | -0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.313 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.644 | 0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.464 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.480 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 1.024 | 0.040 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.197 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.624 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.255 | -0.014 |
| predicted_BB | 0.200 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.924 | -0.051 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.074 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.172 | -0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | -0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.584 | -0.061 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.420 | -0.044 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.459 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SO | 1.043 | 0.019 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.047
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.197 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.376 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.200 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.076 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.172 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.044 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.416 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.420 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.209 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.043 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 8.000 | 0.2105 | 0.2105 | 0.4211 | 0.2105 | 0.0526 | 0.1053 | 0.0000 | 0.4210 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 10.000 | 0.2571 | 0.3333 | 0.4286 | 0.2571 | 0.0286 | 0.0857 | 0.0571 | 0.2857 |
| season | 0.60 | 64 | - | 231.000 | 64.000 | 12.000 | 1.000 | 12.000 | 31.000 | 41.000 | 14.000 | 63.000 | 0.2771 | 0.3293 | 0.4935 | 0.2771 | 0.0520 | 0.1342 | 0.0606 | 0.2727 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2100 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6450 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2585 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1830 |
| predicted_H | 0.9420 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0740 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1680 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3063 |
| predicted_R | 0.6490 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4360 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4599 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0800 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1880 | 0.2100 | 0.1972 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 | 0.0100 | 0.0135 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6090 | 3.6450 | 3.6241 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2770 | 0.2585 | 0.2693 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2190 | 0.1830 | 0.2039 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.9420 | 0.9757 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0740 | 0.0740 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1880 | 0.1680 | 0.1796 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3180 | 0.3063 | 0.3131 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6410 | 0.6490 | 0.6443 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4840 | 0.4360 | 0.4639 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4940 | 0.4599 | 0.4797 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9840 | 1.0800 | 1.0242 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 250 |
| Season rows before report date | 250 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 64 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.277 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 6 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260810_TB@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 680869 |
| playerID | 680869 |
| playerName | Zack Gelof |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | OAK |
| teamID | 20 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.348 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.289 |
| sl_xba | 0.225 |
| sl_xslg | 0.375 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.141 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.170 | 0.000 | -0.170 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 | -0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.776 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.320 | 3.000 | -0.320 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.258 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.292 | 0.000 | 0.042 | 0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.282 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.332 | 1.000 | 0.668 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.718 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.968 | 0.000 | 0.032 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.082 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.130 | 0.000 | -0.130 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.327 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.361 | 0.250 | 0.139 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.271 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.391 | 0.000 | -0.391 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.329 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.439 | 0.000 | -0.439 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.407 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.470 | 0.000 | -0.137 | 0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.459 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.506 | 0.000 | -0.506 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.2820 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7180, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.4590 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4590, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_H: 0.7180 -> 0.6276 (deboost -0.0904, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3565 -> 0.3426 (deboost -0.0139, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.5021 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4979, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.2937 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2937, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.024 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.2165 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2165, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2187 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1143, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3426 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0096, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.3426 (boost 0.0096, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2187 (deboost -0.1143, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "666126",
"player_name": "Carlos Cortes",
"position": "DH",
"team": "OAK",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.141,
"predicted_3B": 0.012,
"predicted_AB": 2.776,
"predicted_AVG": 0.258,
"predicted_BB": 0.282,
"predicted_H": 0.718,
"predicted_HR": 0.082,
"predicted_OBP": 0.327,
"predicted_R": 0.271,
"predicted_RBI": 0.329,
"predicted_SLG": 0.407,
"predicted_SO": 0.459
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1175,
"predicted_3B": 0.0099,
"predicted_AB": 2.7176,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2297,
"predicted_BB": 0.2992,
"predicted_H": 0.6276,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.0694,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3082,
"predicted_R": 0.239,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3029,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3565,
"predicted_SO": 0.4931
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.141,
"after": 0.1175,
"delta": -0.0235,
"percent_delta": -0.1667,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.012,
"after": 0.0099,
"delta": -0.0021,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.776,
"after": 2.7176,
"delta": -0.0584,
"percent_delta": -0.021,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.258,
"after": 0.2297,
"delta": -0.0283,
"percent_delta": -0.1097,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.282,
"after": 0.2992,
"delta": 0.0172,
"percent_delta": 0.061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.718,
"after": 0.6276,
"delta": -0.0904,
"percent_delta": -0.1259,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.082,
"after": 0.0694,
"delta": -0.0126,
"percent_delta": -0.1537,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.327,
"after": 0.3082,
"delta": -0.0188,
"percent_delta": -0.0575,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.271,
"after": 0.239,
"delta": -0.032,
"percent_delta": -0.1181,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.329,
"after": 0.3029,
"delta": -0.0261,
"percent_delta": -0.0793,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.407,
"after": 0.3565,
"delta": -0.0505,
"percent_delta": -0.1241,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.459,
"after": 0.4931,
"delta": 0.0341,
"percent_delta": 0.0743,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.718,
"after": 0.6276,
"delta": -0.0904,
"percent_delta": -0.1259,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 85
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1175,
"predicted_3B": 0.0099,
"predicted_AB": 2.7176,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2187,
"predicted_BB": 0.2937,
"predicted_H": 0.5945,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.0664,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2949,
"predicted_R": 0.2165,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2744,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3426,
"predicted_SO": 0.5021
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1175,
"after": 0.1175,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0099,
"after": 0.0099,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.7176,
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"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3426,
"delta": 0.0096,
"percent_delta": 0.0287,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2187,
"delta": -0.1143,
"percent_delta": -0.3431,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.141,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.141,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.012,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.776,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.224,
"percent_delta": 0.0807,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.258,
"after": 0.2187,
"delta": -0.0393,
"percent_delta": -0.1523,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.282,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.718,
"percent_delta": 2.5461,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.718,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.282,
"percent_delta": 0.3928,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.082,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.082,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.327,
"after": 0.2949,
"delta": -0.0321,
"percent_delta": -0.0982,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.271,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.271,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.329,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.329,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.407,
"after": 0.3426,
"delta": -0.0644,
"percent_delta": -0.1582,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.459,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.459,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.282,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.718,
"percent_delta": 2.5461,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.459,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.459,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.141 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.776 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.258 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.282 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.718 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.082 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.327 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.271 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.329 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.407 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.459 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.117 | -0.023 |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 2.718 | -0.058 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | -0.028 |
| predicted_BB | 0.299 | 0.017 |
| predicted_H | 0.628 | -0.090 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.069 | -0.013 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | -0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.239 | -0.032 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.303 | -0.026 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.356 | -0.050 |
| predicted_SO | 0.493 | 0.034 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.117 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.718 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | -0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.294 | -0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.595 | -0.033 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.066 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.295 | -0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.216 | -0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.274 | -0.029 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.343 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 0.502 | 0.009 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.024
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.117 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.282 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.114 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.294 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.405 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.066 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.038 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.216 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.274 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.498 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.1000 | 0.2500 | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 22.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 0.0455 | 0.1481 | 0.0455 | 0.0454 | 0.0000 | 0.1364 | 0.1364 | 0.3182 |
| season | 0.60 | 85 | - | 236.000 | 61.000 | 12.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 28.000 | 23.000 | 24.000 | 39.000 | 0.2585 | 0.3333 | 0.4068 | 0.2585 | 0.0297 | 0.1186 | 0.1017 | 0.1653 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0850 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 |
| predicted_AB | 2.6370 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1907 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3230 |
| predicted_H | 0.5030 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0260 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0520 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2822 |
| predicted_R | 0.1950 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2670 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2869 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5400 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1410 | 0.0850 | 0.1175 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 | 0.0070 | 0.0099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.7760 | 2.6370 | 2.7176 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2580 | 0.1907 | 0.2297 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2820 | 0.3230 | 0.2992 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7180 | 0.5030 | 0.6276 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0260 | 0.0260 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0820 | 0.0520 | 0.0694 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3270 | 0.2822 | 0.3082 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.2710 | 0.1950 | 0.2390 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3290 | 0.2670 | 0.3029 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4070 | 0.2869 | 0.3565 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.4590 | 0.5400 | 0.4931 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 253 |
| Season rows before report date | 253 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 85 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.258 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260810_TB@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 666126 |
| playerID | 666126 |
| playerName | Carlos Cortes |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | OAK |
| teamID | 20 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.33 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.325 |
| sl_xba | 0.259 |
| sl_xslg | 0.401 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 8.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.127 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.136 | 0.000 | -0.136 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.167 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.423 | 4.000 | -0.423 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.254 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.257 | 0.500 | -0.257 | -0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.235 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.268 | 0.000 | 0.732 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.025 | 0.000 | -0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.804 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.880 | 2.000 | -0.880 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.039 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.044 | 0.000 | -0.044 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.316 | 0.400 | -0.066 | -0.150 |
| predicted_R | 0.304 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.372 | 1.000 | -0.372 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.353 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.391 | 1.000 | -0.391 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.331 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.335 | 0.500 | -0.335 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.422 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.407 | 0.000 | -0.407 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.2350 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7650, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8040 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8040, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SO: 0.4220 -> 0.4784 (boost 0.0564, worse) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3324 -> 0.3169 (deboost -0.0155, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.8028 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1972, better) | predicted_SO: 0.4872 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4872, better) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.011 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3017 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3017, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2508 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0822, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2508 (deboost -0.0822, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "643446",
"player_name": "Jeff McNeil",
"position": "1B",
"team": "OAK",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.127,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.167,
"predicted_AVG": 0.254,
"predicted_BB": 0.235,
"predicted_H": 0.804,
"predicted_HR": 0.039,
"predicted_OBP": 0.305,
"predicted_R": 0.304,
"predicted_RBI": 0.353,
"predicted_SLG": 0.331,
"predicted_SO": 0.422
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1086,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.2012,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2646,
"predicted_BB": 0.2465,
"predicted_H": 0.8476,
"predicted_HBP": 0.019,
"predicted_HR": 0.0356,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3151,
"predicted_R": 0.333,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3568,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3324,
"predicted_SO": 0.4784
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.127,
"after": 0.1086,
"delta": -0.0184,
"percent_delta": -0.1449,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.167,
"after": 3.2012,
"delta": 0.0342,
"percent_delta": 0.0108,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.254,
"after": 0.2646,
"delta": 0.0106,
"percent_delta": 0.0417,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.235,
"after": 0.2465,
"delta": 0.0115,
"percent_delta": 0.0489,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.804,
"after": 0.8476,
"delta": 0.0436,
"percent_delta": 0.0542,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.039,
"after": 0.0356,
"delta": -0.0034,
"percent_delta": -0.0872,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.3151,
"delta": 0.0101,
"percent_delta": 0.0331,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.304,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.029,
"percent_delta": 0.0954,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.353,
"after": 0.3568,
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"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2508,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3035,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3169,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2508,
"delta": -0.0822,
"percent_delta": -0.2469,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3035,
"delta": -0.0295,
"percent_delta": -0.0887,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3169,
"delta": -0.0161,
"percent_delta": -0.0484,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2508,
"delta": -0.0822,
"percent_delta": -0.2469,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.127,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.127,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.167,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.167,
"percent_delta": -0.0527,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.254,
"after": 0.2508,
"delta": -0.0032,
"percent_delta": -0.0126,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.235,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.765,
"percent_delta": 3.2553,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.804,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.804,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.039,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.039,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.3035,
"delta": -0.0015,
"percent_delta": -0.0049,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.304,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.304,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.353,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.353,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.331,
"after": 0.3169,
"delta": -0.0141,
"percent_delta": -0.0426,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.422,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.422,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.235,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.765,
"percent_delta": 3.2553,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.804,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.804,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.127 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.167 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.254 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.235 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.804 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.039 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.304 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.353 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.331 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.422 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.109 | -0.018 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.201 | 0.034 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.265 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.246 | 0.012 |
| predicted_H | 0.848 | 0.044 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.019 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.036 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | 0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.333 | 0.029 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.357 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.332 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.478 | 0.056 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.109 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.201 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | -0.014 |
| predicted_BB | 0.242 | -0.005 |
| predicted_H | 0.803 | -0.045 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.034 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | -0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.302 | -0.031 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.323 | -0.034 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.317 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 0.487 | 0.009 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.011
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.109 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.201 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.082 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.242 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.197 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.034 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.030 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.302 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.323 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.487 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.3125 | 0.3684 | 0.3125 | 0.3125 | 0.0000 | 0.1250 | 0.1250 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 11.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.3333 | 0.3611 | 0.3333 | 0.3333 | 0.0000 | 0.0909 | 0.0606 | 0.1818 |
| season | 0.60 | 102 | - | 323.000 | 82.000 | 13.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 36.000 | 31.000 | 24.000 | 43.000 | 0.2539 | 0.3079 | 0.3313 | 0.2539 | 0.0124 | 0.1115 | 0.0743 | 0.1331 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0840 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2470 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2789 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2620 |
| predicted_H | 0.9060 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0190 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0310 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3287 |
| predicted_R | 0.3720 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3620 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3343 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5540 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1270 | 0.0840 | 0.1086 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.1670 | 3.2470 | 3.2012 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2540 | 0.2789 | 0.2646 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2350 | 0.2620 | 0.2465 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8040 | 0.9060 | 0.8476 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0190 | 0.0190 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0390 | 0.0310 | 0.0356 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3050 | 0.3287 | 0.3151 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3040 | 0.3720 | 0.3330 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3530 | 0.3620 | 0.3568 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3310 | 0.3343 | 0.3324 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.4220 | 0.5540 | 0.4784 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 317 |
| Season rows before report date | 317 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 102 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.254 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 1 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260810_TB@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 643446 |
| playerID | 643446 |
| playerName | Jeff McNeil |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | OAK |
| teamID | 20 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 12.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.286 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.302 |
| sl_xba | 0.269 |
| sl_xslg | 0.352 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 1.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 31.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 16.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 56.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.125 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.134 | 0.000 | -0.134 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.417 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.487 | 4.000 | -0.487 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.260 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.262 | 0.500 | -0.262 | -0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.250 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.263 | 0.000 | 0.737 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.086 | 0.000 | -0.086 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.889 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.914 | 2.000 | -0.914 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.069 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.060 | 0.000 | -0.060 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.332 | 0.500 | -0.082 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.375 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.353 | 1.000 | -0.353 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.306 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.323 | 0.000 | -0.323 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.358 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.352 | 0.500 | -0.352 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 1.111 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.129 | 2.000 | -0.129 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.2500 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7500, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8890 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8890, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.4170 -> 3.5366 (boost 0.1196, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3184 -> 0.2969 (deboost -0.0215, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 5 | predicted_AB: 3.5366 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.4634, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.2848 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2848, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.024 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3920 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3920, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3655 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1155, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3655 (boost 0.1155, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "703607",
"player_name": "Henry Bolte",
"position": "CF",
"team": "OAK",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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"predicted_HR": 0.069,
"predicted_OBP": 0.311,
"predicted_R": 0.375,
"predicted_RBI": 0.306,
"predicted_SLG": 0.358,
"predicted_SO": 1.111
},
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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"predicted_BB": 0.2243,
"predicted_H": 0.945,
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"predicted_HR": 0.0901,
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"predicted_R": 0.4327,
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},
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},
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},
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{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2531,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2969,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3655,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2531,
"delta": 0.0031,
"percent_delta": 0.0124,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2969,
"delta": 0.0469,
"percent_delta": 0.1875,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3655,
"delta": 0.1155,
"percent_delta": 0.4619,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3655,
"delta": 0.1155,
"percent_delta": 0.4619,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.125,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.125,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.417,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.417,
"percent_delta": -0.122,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.26,
"after": 0.2531,
"delta": -0.0069,
"percent_delta": -0.0265,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.75,
"percent_delta": 3.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.889,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.889,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.069,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.069,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.311,
"after": 0.2969,
"delta": -0.0141,
"percent_delta": -0.0453,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.375,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.375,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.306,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.306,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.358,
"after": 0.3655,
"delta": 0.0075,
"percent_delta": 0.0209,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.111,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.111,
"percent_delta": -0.0999,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.75,
"percent_delta": 3.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.889,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.889,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.125 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.417 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.260 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.889 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.069 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.375 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.306 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.358 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.111 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.138 | 0.013 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.537 | 0.120 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.267 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.224 | -0.026 |
| predicted_H | 0.945 | 0.056 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.111 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | 0.021 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | 0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.433 | 0.058 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.314 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.382 | 0.024 |
| predicted_SO | 1.183 | 0.072 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.138 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.537 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.253 | -0.014 |
| predicted_BB | 0.220 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.895 | -0.050 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.111 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.086 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.297 | -0.022 |
| predicted_R | 0.392 | -0.041 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.285 | -0.030 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.365 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 1.205 | 0.022 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.024
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.138 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.463 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.220 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.105 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.086 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.047 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.392 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.285 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.115 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.205 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 22.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 10.000 | 0.2727 | 0.2727 | 0.4545 | 0.2727 | 0.0454 | 0.0454 | 0.0000 | 0.4546 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 13.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 14.000 | 0.3421 | 0.3902 | 0.5526 | 0.3421 | 0.0526 | 0.1053 | 0.0263 | 0.3684 |
| season | 0.60 | 72 | - | 246.000 | 64.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 22.000 | 27.000 | 18.000 | 80.000 | 0.2602 | 0.3309 | 0.3577 | 0.2602 | 0.0203 | 0.0894 | 0.0732 | 0.3252 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1560 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7010 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2760 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1890 |
| predicted_H | 1.0220 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1110 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1190 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3286 |
| predicted_R | 0.5120 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3260 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4153 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2820 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1250 | 0.1560 | 0.1381 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4170 | 3.7010 | 3.5366 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2600 | 0.2760 | 0.2667 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2500 | 0.1890 | 0.2243 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8890 | 1.0220 | 0.9450 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1110 | 0.1110 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0690 | 0.1190 | 0.0901 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3110 | 0.3286 | 0.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3750 | 0.5120 | 0.4327 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3060 | 0.3260 | 0.3144 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3580 | 0.4153 | 0.3821 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1110 | 1.2820 | 1.1830 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 232 |
| Season rows before report date | 232 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 72 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.26 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260810_TB@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 703607 |
| playerID | 703607 |
| playerName | Henry Bolte |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | OAK |
| teamID | 20 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 28.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.311 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.302 |
| sl_xba | 0.23 |
| sl_xslg | 0.36 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 26.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 48.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 1.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 33.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.222 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.152 | 0.000 | -0.152 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.061 | 0.000 | -0.061 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.778 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 1.788 | 2.000 | 2.212 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.169 | 0.000 | -0.169 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.879 | 1.000 | -0.879 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.121 | 0.000 | -0.121 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.490 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.303 | 0.000 | -0.303 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.345 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.479 | 0.500 | -0.479 | -0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.467 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.636 | 1.000 | -0.636 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.350 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.121 | 0.000 | -0.121 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.030 | 0.000 | -0.030 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.369 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.322 | 0.000 | -0.322 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.556 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.424 | 0.000 | -0.424 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.7780 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.2220, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.5560 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5560, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.4900 -> 0.5463 (boost 0.0563, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2435 (deboost -0.0065, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3438 -> 0.2762 (deboost -0.0676, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.5175 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4825, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3391 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3391, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.186 HR/AB=0.015 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4140 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4140, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1884 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1446, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1884 (deboost -0.1446, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "622268",
"player_name": "Donovan Walton",
"position": "2B",
"team": "OAK",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.222,
"predicted_3B": 0.022,
"predicted_AB": 2.778,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 0.333,
"predicted_H": 0.49,
"predicted_HR": 0.04,
"predicted_OBP": 0.345,
"predicted_R": 0.467,
"predicted_RBI": 0.35,
"predicted_SLG": 0.369,
"predicted_SO": 0.556
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2112,
"predicted_3B": 0.0184,
"predicted_AB": 2.7469,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2435,
"predicted_BB": 0.3394,
"predicted_H": 0.5463,
"predicted_HBP": 0.091,
"predicted_HR": 0.0436,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3438,
"predicted_R": 0.457,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3743,
"predicted_SLG": 0.369,
"predicted_SO": 0.5189
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.222,
"after": 0.2112,
"delta": -0.0108,
"percent_delta": -0.0486,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.022,
"after": 0.0184,
"delta": -0.0036,
"percent_delta": -0.1636,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.778,
"after": 2.7469,
"delta": -0.0311,
"percent_delta": -0.0112,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2435,
"delta": -0.0065,
"percent_delta": -0.026,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3394,
"delta": 0.0064,
"percent_delta": 0.0192,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.49,
"after": 0.5463,
"delta": 0.0563,
"percent_delta": 0.1149,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.04,
"after": 0.0436,
"delta": 0.0036,
"percent_delta": 0.09,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 0.3438,
"delta": -0.0012,
"percent_delta": -0.0035,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.467,
"after": 0.457,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -0.0214,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.35,
"after": 0.3743,
"delta": 0.0243,
"percent_delta": 0.0694,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 0.369,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.556,
"after": 0.5189,
"delta": -0.0371,
"percent_delta": -0.0667,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.49,
"after": 0.5463,
"delta": 0.0563,
"percent_delta": 0.1149,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2435,
"delta": -0.0065,
"percent_delta": -0.026,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 45
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2112,
"predicted_3B": 0.0184,
"predicted_AB": 2.7469,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1884,
"predicted_BB": 0.3332,
"predicted_H": 0.5175,
"predicted_HBP": 0.091,
"predicted_HR": 0.0417,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2762,
"predicted_R": 0.414,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3391,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3242,
"predicted_SO": 0.5284
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2112,
"after": 0.2112,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0184,
"after": 0.0184,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.7469,
"after": 2.7469,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2435,
"after": 0.1884,
"delta": -0.0551,
"percent_delta": -0.2263,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3394,
"after": 0.3332,
"delta": -0.0062,
"percent_delta": -0.0183,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5463,
"after": 0.5175,
"delta": -0.0288,
"percent_delta": -0.0527,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.091,
"after": 0.091,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0436,
"after": 0.0417,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0436,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3438,
"after": 0.2762,
"delta": -0.0676,
"percent_delta": -0.1966,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.457,
"after": 0.414,
"delta": -0.043,
"percent_delta": -0.0941,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3743,
"after": 0.3391,
"delta": -0.0352,
"percent_delta": -0.094,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 0.3242,
"delta": -0.0448,
"percent_delta": -0.1214,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5189,
"after": 0.5284,
"delta": 0.0095,
"percent_delta": 0.0183,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3438,
"after": 0.2762,
"delta": -0.0676,
"percent_delta": -0.1966,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.186 HR/AB=0.015",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2112,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2112,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0184,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0184,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.7469,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.2531,
"percent_delta": 0.0921,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3332,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3332,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5175,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4825,
"percent_delta": 0.9324,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.091,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.091,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0417,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0417,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3391,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3391,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5284,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4716,
"percent_delta": 0.8925,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5175,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4825,
"percent_delta": 0.9324,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3391,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3391,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.414,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.414,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.414,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.414,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1884,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.1446,
"percent_delta": 0.7675,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2762,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.0568,
"percent_delta": 0.2056,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3242,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.0088,
"percent_delta": 0.0271,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.1446,
"percent_delta": 0.7675,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1884,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2762,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3242,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1884,
"delta": -0.1446,
"percent_delta": -0.4343,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2762,
"delta": -0.0568,
"percent_delta": -0.1706,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3242,
"delta": -0.0088,
"percent_delta": -0.0264,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1884,
"delta": -0.1446,
"percent_delta": -0.4343,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.222,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.222,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.022,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.022,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.778,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.222,
"percent_delta": 0.4399,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"delta": -0.0616,
"percent_delta": -0.2464,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.333,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.49,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.49,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.04,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.04,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 0.2762,
"delta": -0.0688,
"percent_delta": -0.1994,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.467,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.467,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.35,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.35,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 0.3242,
"delta": -0.0448,
"percent_delta": -0.1214,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.556,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.556,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 2.778,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.222,
"percent_delta": 0.4399,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.556,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.556,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.222 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.778 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.490 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.345 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.467 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.350 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.369 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.556 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.211 | -0.011 |
| predicted_3B | 0.018 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 2.747 | -0.031 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.339 | 0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.546 | 0.056 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.091 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.044 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.344 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.457 | -0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.374 | 0.024 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.369 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.519 | -0.037 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.211 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.018 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.747 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.188 | -0.055 |
| predicted_BB | 0.333 | -0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.517 | -0.029 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.091 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.042 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.276 | -0.068 |
| predicted_R | 0.414 | -0.043 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.339 | -0.035 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.324 | -0.045 |
| predicted_SO | 0.528 | 0.009 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.186 HR/AB=0.015
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.211 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.018 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.253 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.145 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.333 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.483 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.042 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.057 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.414 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.339 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.472 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 11.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.0909 | 0.2857 | 0.1818 | 0.0909 | 0.0000 | 0.1818 | 0.1818 | 0.0909 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 18.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 0.2222 | 0.3636 | 0.2778 | 0.2222 | 0.0000 | 0.2222 | 0.1667 | 0.1111 |
| season | 0.60 | 45 | - | 125.000 | 35.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 16.000 | 21.000 | 15.000 | 25.000 | 0.2800 | 0.3662 | 0.4480 | 0.2800 | 0.0240 | 0.1280 | 0.1200 | 0.2000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1950 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 |
| predicted_AB | 2.7000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2337 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3490 |
| predicted_H | 0.6310 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0910 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0490 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3419 |
| predicted_R | 0.4420 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4110 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3691 |
| predicted_SO | 0.4630 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2220 | 0.1950 | 0.2112 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0220 | 0.0130 | 0.0184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.7780 | 2.7000 | 2.7469 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2500 | 0.2337 | 0.2435 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3330 | 0.3490 | 0.3394 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.4900 | 0.6310 | 0.5463 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0910 | 0.0910 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0400 | 0.0490 | 0.0436 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3450 | 0.3419 | 0.3438 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4670 | 0.4420 | 0.4570 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3500 | 0.4110 | 0.3743 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3690 | 0.3691 | 0.3690 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5560 | 0.4630 | 0.5189 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 33 |
| Season rows before report date | 33 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 45 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.28 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 1 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260810_TB@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 622268 |
| playerID | 622268 |
| playerName | Donovan Walton |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | OAK |
| teamID | 20 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.359 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.31 |
| sl_xba | 0.247 |
| sl_xslg | 0.366 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 42.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 10.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.208 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.171 | 1.000 | -0.171 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 | -0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.070 | 3.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.164 | 5.000 | -1.164 | -2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | 0.333 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.281 | 0.200 | 0.052 | 0.133 |
| predicted_BB | 0.156 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.178 | 0.000 | -0.178 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.160 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.171 | 1.000 | -0.171 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.125 | 0.000 | -0.125 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.261 | 0.500 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.313 | 0.200 | 0.187 | 0.300 |
| predicted_R | 0.455 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.520 | 0.000 | -0.520 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.534 | 1.000 | -0.534 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.353 | 0.333 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.419 | 0.400 | -0.085 | -0.067 |
| predicted_SO | 0.494 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.520 | 0.000 | -0.520 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 11 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 5.0700 -> 3.0000 (deboost -2.0700, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_2B: 0.2080 -> 0.2591 (boost 0.0511, better) | predicted_AB: 5.0700 -> 4.6539 (deboost -0.4161, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_H: 1.0962 -> 1.0383 (deboost -0.0579, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.5411 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4589, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4275 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4275, worse) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=5.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.011 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4061 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4061, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3212 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.1212, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_HBP: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 5.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -2.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2000 -> 0.3212 (boost 0.1212, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "805779",
"player_name": "Jacob Wilson",
"position": "SS",
"team": "OAK",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.208,
"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_AB": 5.07,
"predicted_AVG": 0.229,
"predicted_BB": 0.156,
"predicted_H": 1.16,
"predicted_HR": 0.06,
"predicted_OBP": 0.261,
"predicted_R": 0.455,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5,
"predicted_SLG": 0.353,
"predicted_SO": 0.494
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2591,
"predicted_3B": 0.0113,
"predicted_AB": 4.6539,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2366,
"predicted_BB": 0.1441,
"predicted_H": 1.0962,
"predicted_HBP": 0.017,
"predicted_HR": 0.0609,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2655,
"predicted_R": 0.4482,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4719,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3631,
"predicted_SO": 0.5314
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.208,
"after": 0.2591,
"delta": 0.0511,
"percent_delta": 0.2457,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0113,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.1308,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.07,
"after": 4.6539,
"delta": -0.4161,
"percent_delta": -0.0821,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.229,
"after": 0.2366,
"delta": 0.0076,
"percent_delta": 0.0332,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.156,
"after": 0.1441,
"delta": -0.0119,
"percent_delta": -0.0763,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.16,
"after": 1.0962,
"delta": -0.0638,
"percent_delta": -0.055,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.06,
"after": 0.0609,
"delta": 0.0009,
"percent_delta": 0.015,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.261,
"after": 0.2655,
"delta": 0.0045,
"percent_delta": 0.0172,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.455,
"after": 0.4482,
"delta": -0.0068,
"percent_delta": -0.0149,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 0.4719,
"delta": -0.0281,
"percent_delta": -0.0562,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.353,
"after": 0.3631,
"delta": 0.0101,
"percent_delta": 0.0286,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.494,
"after": 0.5314,
"delta": 0.0374,
"percent_delta": 0.0757,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.208,
"after": 0.2591,
"delta": 0.0511,
"percent_delta": 0.2457,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.07,
"after": 4.6539,
"delta": -0.4161,
"percent_delta": -0.0821,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 77
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2591,
"predicted_3B": 0.0113,
"predicted_AB": 4.6539,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2231,
"predicted_BB": 0.1415,
"predicted_H": 1.0383,
"predicted_HBP": 0.017,
"predicted_HR": 0.0583,
"predicted_OBP": 0.246,
"predicted_R": 0.4061,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4275,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3212,
"predicted_SO": 0.5411
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2591,
"after": 0.2591,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0113,
"after": 0.0113,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.6539,
"after": 4.6539,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2366,
"after": 0.2231,
"delta": -0.0135,
"percent_delta": -0.0571,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1441,
"after": 0.1415,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.018,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0962,
"after": 1.0383,
"delta": -0.0579,
"percent_delta": -0.0528,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.017,
"after": 0.017,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0609,
"after": 0.0583,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.0427,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2655,
"after": 0.246,
"delta": -0.0195,
"percent_delta": -0.0734,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4482,
"after": 0.4061,
"delta": -0.0421,
"percent_delta": -0.0939,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4719,
"after": 0.4275,
"delta": -0.0444,
"percent_delta": -0.0941,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3631,
"after": 0.3212,
"delta": -0.0419,
"percent_delta": -0.1154,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5314,
"after": 0.5411,
"delta": 0.0097,
"percent_delta": 0.0183,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0962,
"after": 1.0383,
"delta": -0.0579,
"percent_delta": -0.0528,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 5 (raw=5.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.011",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2591,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2591,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0113,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0113,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.6539,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.3461,
"percent_delta": 0.0744,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1415,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1415,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0383,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0383,
"percent_delta": -0.0369,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.017,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.017,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0583,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0583,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4275,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4275,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5411,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4589,
"percent_delta": 0.8481,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5411,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4589,
"percent_delta": 0.8481,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4275,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4275,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4061,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4061,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2231,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
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"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.246,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3212,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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],
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": -0.455,
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},
{
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},
{
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"after": 0.3212,
"delta": -0.0318,
"percent_delta": -0.0901,
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},
{
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"before": 0.494,
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.208 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.070 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.156 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.160 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.261 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.455 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.500 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.353 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.494 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.259 | 0.051 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 4.654 | -0.416 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.237 | 0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.144 | -0.012 |
| predicted_H | 1.096 | -0.064 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.061 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.266 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.448 | -0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.472 | -0.028 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.363 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.531 | 0.037 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.259 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.654 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | -0.014 |
| predicted_BB | 0.141 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 1.038 | -0.058 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.058 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.246 | -0.020 |
| predicted_R | 0.406 | -0.042 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.427 | -0.044 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.321 | -0.042 |
| predicted_SO | 0.541 | 0.010 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=5.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.011
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.259 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.346 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | -0.023 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.141 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.038 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.058 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.200 | -0.046 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.406 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.427 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.200 | -0.121 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.459 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -2.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.1905 | 0.1905 | 0.3333 | 0.1905 | 0.0000 | 0.0476 | 0.0000 | 0.1429 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 42.000 | 10.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 0.2381 | 0.2558 | 0.3571 | 0.2381 | 0.0000 | 0.1191 | 0.0238 | 0.1667 |
| season | 0.60 | 77 | - | 313.000 | 84.000 | 16.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 37.000 | 35.000 | 12.000 | 38.000 | 0.2684 | 0.2988 | 0.3930 | 0.2684 | 0.0224 | 0.1182 | 0.0383 | 0.1214 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.3280 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 |
| predicted_AB | 4.0920 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2469 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1280 |
| predicted_H | 1.0100 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0170 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0620 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2716 |
| predicted_R | 0.4390 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4340 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3768 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5820 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2080 | 0.3280 | 0.2591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0090 | 0.0113 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.0700 | 4.0920 | 4.6539 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2290 | 0.2469 | 0.2366 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1560 | 0.1280 | 0.1441 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1600 | 1.0100 | 1.0962 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0170 | 0.0170 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0600 | 0.0620 | 0.0609 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2610 | 0.2716 | 0.2655 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4550 | 0.4390 | 0.4482 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5000 | 0.4340 | 0.4719 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3530 | 0.3768 | 0.3631 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.4940 | 0.5820 | 0.5314 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 281 |
| Season rows before report date | 281 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 77 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 1 |
| season_avg | 0.268 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.2 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260810_TB@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 805779 |
| playerID | 805779 |
| playerName | Jacob Wilson |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | OAK |
| teamID | 20 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 11.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.303 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.286 |
| sl_xba | 0.266 |
| sl_xslg | 0.351 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 27.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 84.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 7.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 14.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 56.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.194 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.172 | 0.000 | -0.172 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.790 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.770 | 4.000 | 0.230 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.208 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.230 | 0.000 | 0.020 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.236 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.213 | 0.000 | -0.213 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.790 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.868 | 0.000 | 0.132 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.167 | 0.000 | -0.167 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.254 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.276 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.347 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.408 | 0.000 | -0.408 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.480 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.575 | 0.000 | -0.575 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.361 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.409 | 0.000 | -0.159 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.736 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.856 | 1.000 | -0.856 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.7900 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.2100, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.7360 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7360, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | predicted_SO: 0.7360 -> 0.8079 (boost 0.0719, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.7900 -> 3.7105 (deboost -0.0795, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3541 -> 0.3356 (deboost -0.0185, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 3.7105 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.2895, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4577 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4577, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.028 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.2945 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2945, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.1949 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0551, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3356 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.0856, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3356 (boost 0.0856, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.1949 (deboost -0.0551, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "641680",
"player_name": "Jonah Heim",
"position": "C",
"team": "OAK",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.79,
"predicted_AVG": 0.208,
"predicted_BB": 0.236,
"predicted_H": 0.79,
"predicted_HR": 0.12,
"predicted_OBP": 0.254,
"predicted_R": 0.347,
"predicted_RBI": 0.48,
"predicted_SLG": 0.361,
"predicted_SO": 0.736
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.202,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.7105,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2054,
"predicted_BB": 0.2394,
"predicted_H": 0.7635,
"predicted_HBP": 0.019,
"predicted_HR": 0.1112,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2543,
"predicted_R": 0.3251,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5052,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3541,
"predicted_SO": 0.8079
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.194,
"after": 0.202,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0412,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.79,
"after": 3.7105,
"delta": -0.0795,
"percent_delta": -0.021,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.2054,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.0125,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.236,
"after": 0.2394,
"delta": 0.0034,
"percent_delta": 0.0144,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.79,
"after": 0.7635,
"delta": -0.0265,
"percent_delta": -0.0335,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.1112,
"delta": -0.0088,
"percent_delta": -0.0733,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.254,
"after": 0.2543,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0012,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.347,
"after": 0.3251,
"delta": -0.0219,
"percent_delta": -0.0631,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.48,
"after": 0.5052,
"delta": 0.0252,
"percent_delta": 0.0525,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.361,
"after": 0.3541,
"delta": -0.0069,
"percent_delta": -0.0191,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.736,
"after": 0.8079,
"delta": 0.0719,
"percent_delta": 0.0977,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 0.8079,
"delta": 0.0719,
"percent_delta": 0.0977,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 3.79,
"after": 3.7105,
"delta": -0.0795,
"percent_delta": -0.021,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 72
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.202,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.7105,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1949,
"predicted_BB": 0.235,
"predicted_H": 0.7232,
"predicted_HBP": 0.019,
"predicted_HR": 0.1064,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2429,
"predicted_R": 0.2945,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4577,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3356,
"predicted_SO": 0.8227
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.202,
"after": 0.202,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7105,
"after": 3.7105,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2054,
"after": 0.1949,
"delta": -0.0105,
"percent_delta": -0.0511,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2394,
"after": 0.235,
"delta": -0.0044,
"percent_delta": -0.0184,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7635,
"after": 0.7232,
"delta": -0.0403,
"percent_delta": -0.0528,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.019,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1112,
"after": 0.1064,
"delta": -0.0048,
"percent_delta": -0.0432,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2543,
"after": 0.2429,
"delta": -0.0114,
"percent_delta": -0.0448,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3251,
"after": 0.2945,
"delta": -0.0306,
"percent_delta": -0.0941,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5052,
"after": 0.4577,
"delta": -0.0475,
"percent_delta": -0.094,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3541,
"after": 0.3356,
"delta": -0.0185,
"percent_delta": -0.0522,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8079,
"after": 0.8227,
"delta": 0.0148,
"percent_delta": 0.0183,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.3541,
"after": 0.3356,
"delta": -0.0185,
"percent_delta": -0.0522,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.028",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.202,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.202,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7105,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.2895,
"percent_delta": 0.078,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.235,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.235,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7232,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2768,
"percent_delta": 0.3827,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.019,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1064,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1064,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4577,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4577,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8227,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1773,
"percent_delta": 0.2155,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7105,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.2895,
"percent_delta": 0.078,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4577,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4577,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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{
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],
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},
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
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},
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
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"stats": {
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
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"predicted_OBP": 0.2429,
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"predicted_SLG": 0.3356,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
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}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.48,
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},
{
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"before": 0.361,
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"delta": -0.0254,
"percent_delta": -0.0704,
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},
{
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"before": 0.736,
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.194 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.790 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.208 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.236 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.790 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.254 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.347 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.480 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.361 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.736 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.202 | 0.008 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.711 | -0.079 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.205 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.239 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.763 | -0.027 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.019 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.111 | -0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.254 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.325 | -0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.505 | 0.025 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.354 | -0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.808 | 0.072 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.202 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.711 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.195 | -0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.235 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.723 | -0.040 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.106 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.243 | -0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.294 | -0.031 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.458 | -0.047 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.336 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SO | 0.823 | 0.015 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.028
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.202 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.289 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.055 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.235 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.277 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.106 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | 0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.294 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.458 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.086 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.177 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 0.1579 | 0.2000 | 0.2105 | 0.1579 | 0.0000 | 0.1579 | 0.0526 | 0.3684 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 0.1579 | 0.2195 | 0.2368 | 0.1579 | 0.0000 | 0.1316 | 0.0790 | 0.2632 |
| season | 0.60 | 72 | - | 247.000 | 55.000 | 14.000 | 0.000 | 11.000 | 39.000 | 25.000 | 17.000 | 53.000 | 0.2227 | 0.2751 | 0.4130 | 0.2227 | 0.0445 | 0.1579 | 0.0688 | 0.2146 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2130 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6010 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2019 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2440 |
| predicted_H | 0.7270 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0190 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0990 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2546 |
| predicted_R | 0.2950 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5400 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3445 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9070 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1940 | 0.2130 | 0.2020 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7900 | 3.6010 | 3.7105 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2080 | 0.2019 | 0.2054 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2360 | 0.2440 | 0.2394 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7900 | 0.7270 | 0.7635 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0190 | 0.0190 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1200 | 0.0990 | 0.1112 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2540 | 0.2546 | 0.2543 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3470 | 0.2950 | 0.3251 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4800 | 0.5400 | 0.5052 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3610 | 0.3445 | 0.3541 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7360 | 0.9070 | 0.8079 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 174 |
| Season rows before report date | 174 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 72 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.223 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 1 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260810_TB@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 641680 |
| playerID | 641680 |
| playerName | Jonah Heim |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | OAK |
| teamID | 20 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.302 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.299 |
| sl_xba | 0.238 |
| sl_xslg | 0.39 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.125 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.132 | 0.000 | -0.132 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.280 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.279 | 4.000 | 0.721 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.218 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.215 | 0.500 | -0.215 | -0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.365 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.467 | 0.000 | -0.467 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.034 | 0.000 | -0.034 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.720 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.705 | 2.000 | -0.705 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.075 | 0.000 | -0.075 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.256 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.314 | 0.500 | -0.314 | -0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.404 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.480 | 0.000 | -0.480 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.270 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.335 | 0.000 | -0.335 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.315 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.332 | 0.500 | -0.332 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.875 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.944 | 2.000 | 2.056 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.8750 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.1250, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.7200 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3150 -> 0.3039 (deboost -0.0111, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.2605 -> 0.2729 (boost 0.0124, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2095 -> 0.1991 (deboost -0.0104, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.6561 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3439, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3345 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3345, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.023 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3761 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3761, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1991 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1339, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1991 (deboost -0.1339, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "671732",
"player_name": "Lawrence Butler",
"position": "RF",
"team": "OAK",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.125,
"predicted_3B": 0.01,
"predicted_AB": 3.28,
"predicted_AVG": 0.218,
"predicted_BB": 0.365,
"predicted_H": 0.72,
"predicted_HR": 0.09,
"predicted_OBP": 0.256,
"predicted_R": 0.404,
"predicted_RBI": 0.27,
"predicted_SLG": 0.315,
"predicted_SO": 0.875
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1096,
"predicted_3B": 0.0087,
"predicted_AB": 3.2954,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2095,
"predicted_BB": 0.3407,
"predicted_H": 0.6927,
"predicted_HBP": 0.008,
"predicted_HR": 0.0798,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2605,
"predicted_R": 0.4151,
"predicted_RBI": 0.258,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3039,
"predicted_SO": 0.846
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.125,
"after": 0.1096,
"delta": -0.0154,
"percent_delta": -0.1232,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.0087,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.13,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.28,
"after": 3.2954,
"delta": 0.0154,
"percent_delta": 0.0047,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.218,
"after": 0.2095,
"delta": -0.0085,
"percent_delta": -0.039,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.365,
"after": 0.3407,
"delta": -0.0243,
"percent_delta": -0.0666,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.72,
"after": 0.6927,
"delta": -0.0273,
"percent_delta": -0.0379,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0798,
"delta": -0.0102,
"percent_delta": -0.1133,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.256,
"after": 0.2605,
"delta": 0.0045,
"percent_delta": 0.0176,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.404,
"after": 0.4151,
"delta": 0.0111,
"percent_delta": 0.0275,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.258,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -0.0444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.315,
"after": 0.3039,
"delta": -0.0111,
"percent_delta": -0.0352,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.875,
"after": 0.846,
"delta": -0.029,
"percent_delta": -0.0331,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.315,
"after": 0.3039,
"delta": -0.0111,
"percent_delta": -0.0352,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 104
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1096,
"predicted_3B": 0.0087,
"predicted_AB": 3.2954,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1991,
"predicted_BB": 0.3345,
"predicted_H": 0.6561,
"predicted_HBP": 0.008,
"predicted_HR": 0.0763,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2729,
"predicted_R": 0.3761,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2337,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3071,
"predicted_SO": 0.8615
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1096,
"after": 0.1096,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0087,
"after": 0.0087,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.2954,
"after": 3.2954,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2095,
"after": 0.1991,
"delta": -0.0104,
"percent_delta": -0.0496,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3407,
"after": 0.3345,
"delta": -0.0062,
"percent_delta": -0.0182,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6927,
"after": 0.6561,
"delta": -0.0366,
"percent_delta": -0.0528,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.008,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0798,
"after": 0.0763,
"delta": -0.0035,
"percent_delta": -0.0439,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2605,
"after": 0.2729,
"delta": 0.0124,
"percent_delta": 0.0476,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4151,
"after": 0.3761,
"delta": -0.039,
"percent_delta": -0.094,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.258,
"after": 0.2337,
"delta": -0.0243,
"percent_delta": -0.0942,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3039,
"after": 0.3071,
"delta": 0.0032,
"percent_delta": 0.0105,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.846,
"after": 0.8615,
"delta": 0.0155,
"percent_delta": 0.0183,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2605,
"after": 0.2729,
"delta": 0.0124,
"percent_delta": 0.0476,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2095,
"after": 0.1991,
"delta": -0.0104,
"percent_delta": -0.0496,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.023",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1096,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1096,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0087,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0087,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.2954,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.2954,
"percent_delta": -0.0896,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3345,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3345,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6561,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3439,
"percent_delta": 0.5242,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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],
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},
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},
{
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"step": "current_json_final",
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},
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{
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},
{
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},
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{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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],
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}
},
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}
],
"total_change": {
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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"after": 0.3071,
"delta": -0.0079,
"percent_delta": -0.0251,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 8,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.125 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.280 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.218 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.365 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.720 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.256 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.404 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.270 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.315 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.875 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.110 | -0.015 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.295 | 0.015 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | -0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.341 | -0.024 |
| predicted_H | 0.693 | -0.027 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.008 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | -0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.261 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.415 | 0.011 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.258 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.304 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.846 | -0.029 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.110 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.295 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.199 | -0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.335 | -0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.656 | -0.037 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.076 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.273 | 0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.376 | -0.039 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.234 | -0.024 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.307 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.862 | 0.016 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.023
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.110 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.295 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.134 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.335 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.344 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.076 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.060 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.376 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.234 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.026 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.138 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.1667 | 0.2105 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0556 | 0.1111 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 0.1842 | 0.2250 | 0.2632 | 0.1842 | 0.0263 | 0.0526 | 0.0526 | 0.2368 |
| season | 0.60 | 104 | - | 311.000 | 64.000 | 13.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 30.000 | 42.000 | 38.000 | 91.000 | 0.2058 | 0.2934 | 0.3215 | 0.2058 | 0.0225 | 0.0965 | 0.1222 | 0.2926 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0890 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3160 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1980 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3080 |
| predicted_H | 0.6560 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0080 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0660 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2665 |
| predicted_R | 0.4300 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2420 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2891 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8070 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1250 | 0.0890 | 0.1096 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 | 0.0070 | 0.0087 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.2800 | 3.3160 | 3.2954 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2180 | 0.1980 | 0.2095 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3650 | 0.3080 | 0.3407 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7200 | 0.6560 | 0.6927 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0080 | 0.0080 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 | 0.0660 | 0.0798 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2560 | 0.2665 | 0.2605 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4040 | 0.4300 | 0.4151 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2700 | 0.2420 | 0.2580 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3150 | 0.2891 | 0.3039 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8750 | 0.8070 | 0.8460 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 319 |
| Season rows before report date | 319 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 104 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 3 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.206 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260810_TB@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 671732 |
| playerID | 671732 |
| playerName | Lawrence Butler |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | OAK |
| teamID | 20 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.278 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.306 |
| sl_xba | 0.234 |
| sl_xslg | 0.357 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 5.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.095 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.135 | 0.000 | -0.135 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.240 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.000 | 4.000 | -1.000 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.206 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.324 | 0.000 | -0.324 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.095 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.189 | 0.000 | -0.189 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.135 | 0.000 | -0.135 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.297 | 0.000 | -1.297 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.246 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.355 | 0.000 | -0.355 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.381 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.405 | 0.000 | -0.405 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.027 | 1.000 | -0.027 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.358 | 0.000 | -0.358 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.714 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.405 | 1.000 | -0.405 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SLG: 0.2400 -> 0.2501 (boost 0.0101, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.2400 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.2400, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2400 -> 0.2576 (boost 0.0176, better) | predicted_AB: 4.2400 -> 4.1066 (deboost -0.1334, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2503 -> 0.2230 (deboost -0.0273, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.7507 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2493, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.1451 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1451, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.007 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3378 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3378, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2042 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0458, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | - | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2042 (deboost -0.0458, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "695720",
"player_name": "Tommy White",
"position": "3B",
"team": "OAK",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.095,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.24,
"predicted_AVG": 0.206,
"predicted_BB": 0.095,
"predicted_H": 0.87,
"predicted_HR": 0.03,
"predicted_OBP": 0.246,
"predicted_R": 0.381,
"predicted_RBI": 0.14,
"predicted_SLG": 0.24,
"predicted_SO": 0.714
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0931,
"predicted_3B": 0.0015,
"predicted_AB": 4.1066,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2167,
"predicted_BB": 0.1014,
"predicted_H": 0.8853,
"predicted_HBP": 0.009,
"predicted_HR": 0.0322,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2503,
"predicted_R": 0.3728,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1602,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2576,
"predicted_SO": 0.7372
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.095,
"after": 0.0931,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.02,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0015,
"delta": 0.0015,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.24,
"after": 4.1066,
"delta": -0.1334,
"percent_delta": -0.0315,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.206,
"after": 0.2167,
"delta": 0.0107,
"percent_delta": 0.0519,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.095,
"after": 0.1014,
"delta": 0.0064,
"percent_delta": 0.0674,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.87,
"after": 0.8853,
"delta": 0.0153,
"percent_delta": 0.0176,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 0.0322,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.0733,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.246,
"after": 0.2503,
"delta": 0.0043,
"percent_delta": 0.0175,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.381,
"after": 0.3728,
"delta": -0.0082,
"percent_delta": -0.0215,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.1602,
"delta": 0.0202,
"percent_delta": 0.1443,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2576,
"delta": 0.0176,
"percent_delta": 0.0733,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.714,
"after": 0.7372,
"delta": 0.0232,
"percent_delta": 0.0325,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2576,
"delta": 0.0176,
"percent_delta": 0.0733,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.24,
"after": 4.1066,
"delta": -0.1334,
"percent_delta": -0.0315,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 21
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0931,
"predicted_3B": 0.0015,
"predicted_AB": 4.1066,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2042,
"predicted_BB": 0.0995,
"predicted_H": 0.8386,
"predicted_HBP": 0.009,
"predicted_HR": 0.0308,
"predicted_OBP": 0.223,
"predicted_R": 0.3378,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1451,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2501,
"predicted_SO": 0.7507
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0931,
"after": 0.0931,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0015,
"after": 0.0015,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.1066,
"after": 4.1066,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2167,
"after": 0.2042,
"delta": -0.0125,
"percent_delta": -0.0577,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1014,
"after": 0.0995,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0187,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8853,
"after": 0.8386,
"delta": -0.0467,
"percent_delta": -0.0528,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.009,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0322,
"after": 0.0308,
"delta": -0.0014,
"percent_delta": -0.0435,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2503,
"after": 0.223,
"delta": -0.0273,
"percent_delta": -0.1091,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3728,
"after": 0.3378,
"delta": -0.035,
"percent_delta": -0.0939,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.1602,
"after": 0.1451,
"delta": -0.0151,
"percent_delta": -0.0943,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2576,
"after": 0.2501,
"delta": -0.0075,
"percent_delta": -0.0291,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7372,
"after": 0.7507,
"delta": 0.0135,
"percent_delta": 0.0183,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
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"delta": 0.0101,
"percent_delta": 0.0421,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.714,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.714,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2501,
"delta": 0.0101,
"percent_delta": 0.0421,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.24,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.24,
"percent_delta": -0.2925,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.095 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.240 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.206 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.095 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.246 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.381 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.240 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.714 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.093 | -0.002 |
| predicted_3B | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 4.107 | -0.133 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.217 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.101 | 0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.885 | 0.015 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.032 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.373 | -0.008 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.160 | 0.020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.258 | 0.018 |
| predicted_SO | 0.737 | 0.023 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.093 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.107 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.204 | -0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.100 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.839 | -0.047 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.031 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.223 | -0.027 |
| predicted_R | 0.338 | -0.035 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.145 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.751 | 0.014 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.007
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.093 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.107 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.046 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.100 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.161 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.031 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | 0.027 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.338 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.145 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.249 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.2105 | 0.2105 | 0.2105 | 0.2105 | 0.0000 | 0.0526 | 0.0000 | 0.2105 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 8.000 | 0.1795 | 0.1795 | 0.1795 | 0.1795 | 0.0000 | 0.0256 | 0.0000 | 0.2051 |
| season | 0.60 | 21 | - | 83.000 | 21.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 15.000 | 0.2530 | 0.2706 | 0.2771 | 0.2530 | 0.0000 | 0.0120 | 0.0241 | 0.1807 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0900 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8830 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2346 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1120 |
| predicted_H | 0.9110 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0090 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0360 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2574 |
| predicted_R | 0.3590 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1940 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2872 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7760 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0950 | 0.0900 | 0.0931 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0040 | 0.0015 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.2400 | 3.8830 | 4.1066 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2060 | 0.2346 | 0.2167 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.0950 | 0.1120 | 0.1014 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8700 | 0.9110 | 0.8853 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0090 | 0.0090 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0300 | 0.0360 | 0.0322 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2460 | 0.2574 | 0.2503 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3810 | 0.3590 | 0.3728 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1400 | 0.1940 | 0.1602 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2400 | 0.2872 | 0.2576 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7140 | 0.7760 | 0.7372 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 37 |
| Season rows before report date | 37 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 21 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.253 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260809_OAK@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 695720 |
| playerID | 695720 |
| playerName | Tommy White |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | OAK |
| teamID | 20 |
| game_date | 2026-08-09 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 2.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.245 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.282 |
| sl_xba | 0.273 |
| sl_xslg | 0.355 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 4.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 55.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.062 | 3.000 | -0.062 | -2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_ER | 1.312 | 5.000 | 3.688 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 8.000 | 8.000 | 8.000 | Pitching_H | 1.875 | 5.000 | 6.125 | 3.000 |
| predicted_IP | 4.100 | 4.100 | 4.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 2.037 | 4.100 | 2.062 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_SO | 2.250 | 7.000 | 3.750 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 5.0000 -> 4.1000 (deboost -0.9000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | starter_usage_guardrail | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 5.0000 -> 4.1000 (deboost -0.9000, worse) | Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "686930",
"player_name": "Mason Barnett",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "OAK",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 5.0,
"predicted_H": 8.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_SO": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
"description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 5.0,
"predicted_H": 8.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.1,
"predicted_SO": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.9,
"percent_delta": -0.18,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.9,
"percent_delta": -0.18,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 5.0,
"predicted_H": 8.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.1,
"predicted_R": 5.0,
"predicted_SO": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.1,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.9,
"percent_delta": -0.18,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.9,
"percent_delta": -0.18,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 8.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 6.000 | - |
Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 8.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 4.100 | -0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 6.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 14.200 | 13.000 | 16.000 | 8.000 | 15.000 | 3.000 | 7.9773 | 1.6364 | 0.8864 | 1.0909 | 0.5454 | 1.0227 | 0.2046 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 21.100 | 20.000 | 24.000 | 12.000 | 21.000 | 7.000 | 8.4375 | 1.6875 | 0.9375 | 1.1250 | 0.5625 | 0.9844 | 0.3281 |
| season | 0.20 | 16 | 34.000 | 21.000 | 30.000 | 17.000 | 36.000 | 8.000 | 5.5588 | 1.3824 | 0.6177 | 0.8823 | 0.5000 | 1.0588 | 0.2353 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.6420 |
| predicted_ER | 2.4760 |
| predicted_ERA | 6.3125 |
| predicted_H | 3.6140 |
| predicted_HR | 0.7390 |
| predicted_IP | 3.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 3.5020 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4889 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 1.6420 | 1.3024 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 5.0000 | 2.4760 | 3.8112 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 6.3125 | 6.3125 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 8.0000 | 3.6140 | 5.9343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.7390 | 0.8771 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.0000 | 3.2000 | 4.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 6.0000 | 3.5020 | 4.8235 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4889 | 1.4889 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 16 |
| Season rows before report date | 16 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 16 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 4.1 |
| H | 8 |
| R | 5 |
| ER | 5 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 6 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 22 |
| Pitches | 95 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 3 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 21 |
| Pitching_ER | 5 |
| Pitching_ERA | 5.56 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 3 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 5 |
| Pitching_HBP | 1 |
| Pitching_HR | 3 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 4.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 82 |
| Pitching_R | 5 |
| Pitching_SO | 7 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 47 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | L |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260806_OAK@CIN |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 686930 |
| playerID | 686930 |
| playerName | Mason Barnett |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | OAK |
| teamID | 20 |
| game_date | 2026-08-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.35 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.323 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.5 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 79.139161522 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.22836 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.650 | 0.000 | -0.650 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.550 | 0.000 | -0.550 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 1.300 | 0.000 | -1.300 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.218 | 1.000 | -0.117 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.575 | 1.000 | -0.575 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "665622",
"player_name": "Luis Medina",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "OAK",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.3333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.200 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 4.7647 | 1.5882 | 0.5294 | 1.2353 | 0.3529 | 1.0588 | 0.3529 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 11.100 | 5.000 | 12.000 | 4.000 | 14.000 | 2.000 | 3.9706 | 1.4118 | 0.4412 | 1.0588 | 0.3529 | 1.2353 | 0.1765 |
| season | 0.20 | 38 | 52.200 | 20.000 | 47.000 | 25.000 | 63.000 | 6.000 | 3.4177 | 1.3671 | 0.3797 | 0.8924 | 0.4747 | 1.1962 | 0.1139 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4280 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5510 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.3041 |
| predicted_H | 1.2240 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2450 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2530 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4342 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4280 | 0.2200 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.5510 | 0.2832 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.3041 | 4.3041 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 1.2240 | 0.6291 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.2450 | 0.1259 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 | 1.0000 | 1.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.2530 | 1.1300 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4342 | 1.4342 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 40 |
| Season rows before report date | 40 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 38 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 27 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.76 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 12 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 10 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260808_OAK@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 665622 |
| playerID | 665622 |
| playerName | Luis Medina |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | OAK |
| teamID | 20 |
| game_date | 2026-08-08 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.334 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.326 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.4 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 80.161633088 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.309945185 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.486 | 0.000 | -0.486 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.514 | 0.000 | -0.514 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.771 | 0.000 | -0.771 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.891 | 1.000 | 0.109 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.286 | 1.000 | 0.714 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "665660",
"player_name": "Elvis Alvarado",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "OAK",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.9231 | 0.0000 | 0.2308 | 0.6923 | 1.3846 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 7.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 3.0000 | 1.4444 | 0.3333 | 0.6667 | 0.7778 | 1.1111 | 0.2222 |
| season | 0.20 | 35 | 36.100 | 18.000 | 27.000 | 17.000 | 45.000 | 7.000 | 4.4587 | 1.2110 | 0.4954 | 0.7431 | 0.4679 | 1.2385 | 0.1927 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.5480 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3310 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.9791 |
| predicted_H | 0.6840 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1290 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1370 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2323 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.5480 | 0.2618 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3310 | 0.1581 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.9791 | 2.9791 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.6840 | 0.3268 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1290 | 0.0616 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 1.1370 | 1.5877 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2323 | 1.2323 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 35 |
| Season rows before report date | 35 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 35 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 15 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 4.46 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 11 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 8 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | W |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260809_OAK@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 665660 |
| playerID | 665660 |
| playerName | Elvis Alvarado |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | OAK |
| teamID | 20 |
| game_date | 2026-08-09 |
| sl_k_percent | 30.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.33 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.339 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 17.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 48.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 32.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.4 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 78.98220119 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 95.295411566 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.618 | 1.000 | 0.382 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.382 | 0.000 | -0.382 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.873 | 1.000 | 0.127 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.767 | 1.000 | 0.333 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.273 | 1.000 | -0.273 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "663687",
"player_name": "Hogan Harris",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "OAK",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.100 | 5.000 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 8.4375 | 2.6250 | 0.9375 | 1.5000 | 1.1250 | 1.5000 | 0.1875 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.000 | 5.000 | 10.000 | 7.000 | 14.000 | 1.000 | 4.5000 | 1.7000 | 0.5000 | 1.0000 | 0.7000 | 1.4000 | 0.1000 |
| season | 0.20 | 55 | 52.000 | 21.000 | 48.000 | 34.000 | 70.000 | 6.000 | 3.6346 | 1.5769 | 0.4038 | 0.9231 | 0.6539 | 1.3461 | 0.1154 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.7130 |
| predicted_ER | 0.6190 |
| predicted_ERA | 5.5754 |
| predicted_H | 1.1330 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1440 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2800 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.8453 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.7130 | 0.8528 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.6190 | 0.3174 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 5.5754 | 5.5754 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 1.1330 | 1.0682 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1440 | 0.0738 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.2800 | 1.1436 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.8453 | 1.8453 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 55 |
| Season rows before report date | 55 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 55 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 6 |
| Pitches | 24 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 5 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.63 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 20 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 14 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | S |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260809_OAK@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663687 |
| playerID | 663687 |
| playerName | Hogan Harris |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | OAK |
| teamID | 20 |
| game_date | 2026-08-09 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 14.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.328 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.303 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.4 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 76.192665938 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.027588281 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.333 | 1.000 | -0.333 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.636 | 4.000 | -0.636 | -4.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 1.182 | 3.000 | -1.182 | -3.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.024 | 0.100 | -0.024 | 0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.091 | 1.000 | -1.091 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3333, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3333, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "660761",
"player_name": "José Suarez",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "OAK",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.6667,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3333,
"percent_delta": 0.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3333,
"percent_delta": 0.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3333,
"percent_delta": 0.4999,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3333,
"percent_delta": 0.4999,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 3.100 | 6.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 16.2000 | 2.1000 | 1.8000 | 1.5000 | 0.6000 | 0.3000 | 0.3000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 7.100 | 8.000 | 7.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 9.8182 | 1.3636 | 1.0909 | 0.9546 | 0.4091 | 0.5454 | 0.2727 |
| season | 0.20 | 42 | 58.200 | 34.000 | 63.000 | 25.000 | 60.000 | 6.000 | 5.2159 | 1.5000 | 0.5796 | 1.0739 | 0.4261 | 1.0227 | 0.1023 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3470 |
| predicted_ER | 0.8100 |
| predicted_ERA | 9.5935 |
| predicted_H | 0.8730 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1670 |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5000 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.6059 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3470 | 0.1817 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.8100 | 0.4242 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 9.5935 | 9.5935 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.8730 | 0.4572 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1670 | 0.0875 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.5000 | 0.2619 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.6059 | 1.6059 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 33 |
| Season rows before report date | 33 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 42 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 13 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 5 |
| Pitching_ER | 4 |
| Pitching_ERA | 5.22 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 3 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 1 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 19 |
| Pitching_R | 4 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 11 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | L, BS |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_TB@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 660761 |
| playerID | 660761 |
| playerName | José Suarez |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | OAK |
| teamID | 20 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.336 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.297 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.7 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.811603171 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.050244085 |
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | TEX 4 - 3 LAA | TEX | 0.535 | simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap | True |
| Simulation draw | TEX 7 - 2 LAA | TEX | - | same_winner_margin_capped | False |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.5532; empirical=0.5178; weight=0.5000; final=0.5355 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=4; abs=4; home delta=0.0231; away delta=-0.0231 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=1.6500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=-0.6695; recent edge=-0.4440; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 7 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.5355 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | same_winner_margin_capped |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 7 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 4.839 | 4.291 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 5 | 4 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 4 | 3 | 0.5355 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail) |
| 4 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 3 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 5 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 3 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 6 | capped_target | 4 | 3 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 7 | simulation_result | 7 | 2 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.5164053869333334,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.4301587301587302,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.5101587301587301,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.08624665677460319,
"confidence": 0.700249804,
"factors": {
"environmental": 0.9996,
"pitcher_form": 1.1,
"team_form": 1.06,
"situational": 1.03,
"combined": 1.200499608
},
"prediction": "low_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 9,
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 7.0,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 7.0,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 9,
"score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
}{
"method": "historical_slate_bin_shrinkage",
"sample_size": 197,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 197,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 262,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 303,
"global_sample_size": 473,
"bucket_scope": "near_0.05",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5178,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5163,
"sample_weight": 0.6,
"prior_strength": 18.0,
"reliability": 0.9163,
"confidence_cap": 0.78,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5085,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5119,
"predicted_side": "away"
}{
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.553156,
"sample_size": 197,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5178,
"empirical_weight": 0.5,
"blended_confidence": 0.535478,
"published_confidence": 0.535478,
"published_after_governors": true
}{
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 5,
"sample_weight": 0.0577,
"home_net_margin": 4.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
"home_average_margin": 0.8,
"home_run_delta": 0.0231,
"away_run_delta": -0.0231,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -3.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 12.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -5.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 1.0
}
]
}{
"applied": true,
"home": {
"team": "LAA",
"games": 118,
"wins": 45,
"losses": 73,
"win_pct": 0.3813559322033898,
"runs_scored": 484,
"runs_allowed": 575,
"run_differential": -91,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.7711864406779662,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "TEX",
"games": 118,
"wins": 59,
"losses": 59,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 489,
"runs_allowed": 522,
"run_differential": -33,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.2796610169491525,
"available": true
},
"run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.4915,
"win_pct_edge": -0.1186,
"quality_edge": -0.5906,
"season_quality_edge": -0.6695,
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
"recent_window": 10,
"season_quality_edge": -0.6695,
"recent_quality_edge": -0.444,
"season_weight": 0.65,
"recent_weight": 0.35,
"recent_reliability": 1.0,
"alignment": "aligned",
"blended_quality_edge": -0.5906
},
"margin_adjustment": -0.2481,
"reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
"margin_adjustment_policy": {
"adjustment": -0.2481,
"cap": 1.4,
"scale": 0.42,
"quality_edge": -0.5906,
"season_quality_edge": -0.6695,
"recent_alignment": "aligned",
"large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
"method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 4.644,
"home_runs": 1.853,
"home_win_probability": 0.2627
}
}{
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.03274336710667906
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.03155134092433702
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.03092319087504303
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.02979742842536837
},
{
"home_runs": 2,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.028685537915928472
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.06973735224165313,
"1": 0.11628522662025803,
"2": 0.16042951026652008,
"3": 0.18312371777014935,
"4": 0.17294402435474435,
"5": 0.13513478324690123,
"6": 0.08736336689347944,
"7": 0.04672961482968799,
"8": 0.02068024428801111,
"9": 0.007572159488595337
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.06635456191657986,
"1": 0.11096282919505585,
"2": 0.15441168875225794,
"3": 0.17880462184465595,
"4": 0.17229521827390587,
"5": 0.13815405133956937,
"6": 0.09218280984443805,
"7": 0.05118375865530312,
"8": 0.023648866213236624,
"9": 0.009092522620855461,
"10": 0.0029090713441421536
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
"variance_multiplier": 1.65,
"variance_floor": 2.75,
"roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
}{
"applied": true,
"confidence_cap": 0.54,
"winner_flipped": false,
"reasons": [
"predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs",
"opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup",
"recent head-to-head is split and volatile",
"recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick",
"a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result",
"a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs"
],
"signals": {
"predicted_team": "TEX",
"opponent_team": "LAA",
"h2h_net_margin": -8,
"opponent_breakout": true,
"opponent_blowout_win": true,
"split_recent_h2h": true,
"recent_h2h": [
{
"date": "2026-08-10",
"predicted_team_runs": 4,
"opponent_runs": 1,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 3,
"winner": "TEX"
},
{
"date": "2026-07-09",
"predicted_team_runs": 7,
"opponent_runs": 6,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 1,
"winner": "TEX"
},
{
"date": "2026-07-08",
"predicted_team_runs": 1,
"opponent_runs": 13,
"margin_for_predicted_team": -12,
"winner": "LAA"
}
],
"prediction_memory": {
"available": true,
"reason": "verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available",
"verification_policy": "pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final",
"verified_outcome_count": 4,
"consecutive_same_pick_count": 0,
"same_pick_actual_loss_count": 1,
"same_pick_blowout_loss_count": 1,
"prior_predictions": [
{
"date": "20260810",
"away": "TEX",
"home": "LAA",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "LAA",
"actual_winner": "TEX",
"actual_margin": 3,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.51795,
"artifact": "20260810_TEX@LAA.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260709",
"away": "LAA",
"home": "TEX",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "TEX",
"actual_winner": "TEX",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.6,
"artifact": "20260709_LAA@TEX.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260708",
"away": "LAA",
"home": "TEX",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "TEX",
"actual_winner": "LAA",
"actual_margin": 12,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5,
"artifact": "20260708_LAA@TEX.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260707",
"away": "LAA",
"home": "TEX",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "TEX",
"actual_winner": "TEX",
"actual_margin": 5,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.63,
"artifact": "20260707_LAA@TEX.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
}
]
},
"guardrail_predicted_team": "TEX",
"guardrail_opponent_team": "LAA",
"output_pre_simulation_winner": "TEX",
"output_opponent_team": "LAA",
"simulation_score_winner": "TEX",
"final_score_winner": "TEX",
"pre_simulation_winner": "TEX",
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false
},
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"final_prediction_sync": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "TEX 4 - 3 LAA",
"winner": "TEX"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 7,
"home_runs": 2,
"score_text": "TEX 7 - 2 LAA",
"winner": "TEX"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1032,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.394,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": true,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 3,
"home_run_delta": -1,
"total_run_delta": 2,
"score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
"simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "TEX",
"model_winner": "TEX",
"simulation_winner": "TEX",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": true,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 5,
"simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
"score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 7,
"home_runs": 2
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 5,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.5906,
"winner": "TEX",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"policy": "recency_uncertainty_shrinkage_v2",
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"home": {
"team": "LAA",
"games": 118,
"wins": 45,
"losses": 73,
"win_pct": 0.3813559322033898,
"runs_scored": 484,
"runs_allowed": 575,
"run_differential": -91,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.7711864406779662,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "TEX",
"games": 118,
"wins": 59,
"losses": 59,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 489,
"runs_allowed": 522,
"run_differential": -33,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.2796610169491525,
"available": true
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"raw_margin": -0.1,
"final_margin": -0.1,
"margin_cap": 1.5,
"season_quality_edge": 0.5906,
"reason": "raw target margin within supported range"
}{
"applied": false,
"raw_confidence": 0.535478,
"final_confidence": 0.535478,
"confidence_cap": 0.66,
"score_gap": 0.1,
"calibration_sample_size": 197,
"calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5178,
"calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5163,
"calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
"season_quality_edge": 0.5906,
"reasons": [
"unvalidated probabilities are capped for production display",
"projected score gap is close",
"local calibration sample has at least 30 games",
"local calibration sample has at least 60 games",
"win-probability calibration cap enforced"
]
}{
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "TEX 4 - 3 LAA",
"winner": "TEX"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 7,
"home_runs": 2,
"score_text": "TEX 7 - 2 LAA",
"winner": "TEX"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1032,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.394,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": true,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 3,
"home_run_delta": -1,
"total_run_delta": 2,
"score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
"simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "TEX",
"model_winner": "TEX",
"simulation_winner": "TEX",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": true,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 5,
"simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
"score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 7,
"home_runs": 2
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 5,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.5906,
"winner": "TEX",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}{
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"confidence": 0.535478,
"home_win_probability": 0.464522,
"away_win_probability": 0.535478,
"predicted_score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 LAA",
"embedded_savant_score_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded temporal Savant features",
"feature_contract": {
"training_grain": "one player-game row after collapsing granular at-bat rows",
"temporal_rule": "all sl_/ab_/sv_ model features are shifted before the predicted game",
"hitter_signals": [
"xwoba",
"xba",
"xslg",
"barrel_batted_rate",
"hard_hit_percent",
"bat_speed",
"launch_quality",
"walk_rate",
"strikeout_rate"
],
"pitcher_signals": [
"xwoba_allowed",
"barrel_allowed",
"hard_hit_allowed",
"whiff_rate",
"command_score",
"movement_score",
"faced_est_woba",
"faced_strikeout_rate"
]
},
"away": {
"team": "TEX",
"original_runs": 4,
"run_delta": 0.4169,
"adjusted_runs": 4,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 33.0,
"quality": 0.148745500507309,
"contact": -0.01368580740832862,
"power": 0.17756052399768424,
"discipline": -0.16141066143198263,
"xwoba": 0.31136363636363634,
"recent_xwoba": 0.31136363636363634,
"barrel": 8.460606060606061,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.0865409272841349,
"ab_bat_speed": 70.0893560811127,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.22929396653267894,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "607043",
"player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
"position": "RF",
"weight": 5.0,
"quality": 1.0867900650227547,
"contact": 1.3157661070972881,
"power": 1.2413287555050512,
"discipline": 0.03369385420071906,
"xwoba": 0.372,
"recent_xwoba": 0.372,
"barrel": 11.3,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.5663846339105534,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.0562276524645,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.21175438596491228,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "670032",
"player_name": "Nicky Lopez",
"position": "2B",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.6553814976847331,
"contact": -0.8907829673068067,
"power": -1.5122163711174696,
"discipline": -0.06918448526496637,
"xwoba": 0.262,
"recent_xwoba": 0.262,
"barrel": 0.0,
"ab_hard_contact": -1.4835655175874811,
"ab_bat_speed": 62.676705082742316,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.15141843971631205,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "592626",
"player_name": "Joc Pederson",
"position": "DH",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": 0.6906221847890849,
"contact": 0.7380293763631499,
"power": 0.9640772825197954,
"discipline": 0.09402234396445416,
"xwoba": 0.3499999999999999,
"recent_xwoba": 0.35,
"barrel": 11.300000000000002,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.576783745633984,
"ab_bat_speed": 70.27926185966811,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.23071161048689137,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "608369",
"player_name": "Corey Seager",
"position": "SS",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.5399838368050085,
"contact": 0.20872282917748927,
"power": 1.0386358190160463,
"discipline": -0.049789855072463876,
"xwoba": 0.334,
"recent_xwoba": 0.334,
"barrel": 14.5,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.6550020946066488,
"ab_bat_speed": 70.36469952380952,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.27266666666666667,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "694497",
"player_name": "Evan Carter",
"position": "CF",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.47930228056546775,
"contact": -0.672583251651435,
"power": -0.5603593848634365,
"discipline": 0.312124019119188,
"xwoba": 0.293,
"recent_xwoba": 0.293,
"barrel": 5.8,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.8540448401258689,
"ab_bat_speed": 67.95194444444445,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2559670781893004,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "696270",
"player_name": "Ryan Johnson",
"quality": -0.44978945040991175,
"contact": -0.8166499370693121,
"command": -0.6094841269841271,
"movement": -0.78158212680472,
"xwoba": 0.362,
"whiff": 24.2,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2673184860119048,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.86666666666667,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.23333333333333334,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006702420300892518
}
},
"home": {
"team": "LAA",
"original_runs": 3,
"run_delta": 0.3969,
"adjusted_runs": 3,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 32.0,
"quality": 0.04544010955788082,
"contact": -0.06336981871731089,
"power": 0.05407055417455564,
"discipline": -0.06571095204379744,
"xwoba": 0.3146875,
"recent_xwoba": 0.3146875,
"barrel": 8.396875,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.07285751206254719,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.1911431960249,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.24967035292371448,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "545361",
"player_name": "Mike Trout",
"position": "CF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 1.1564483374997707,
"contact": 0.9444899252360085,
"power": 1.4857633587883803,
"discipline": 1.0486682631145698,
"xwoba": 0.387,
"recent_xwoba": 0.387,
"barrel": 16.9,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.9301243186247672,
"ab_bat_speed": 73.6088211417097,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.26285140562248993,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "623168",
"player_name": "Tyler Heineman",
"position": "C",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.5767973564673095,
"contact": -1.2471984164616083,
"power": -1.6374843057260797,
"discipline": -0.26088258690203786,
"xwoba": 0.249,
"recent_xwoba": 0.249,
"barrel": 1.0,
"ab_hard_contact": -1.226828971664459,
"ab_bat_speed": 62.65635233918129,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.1894736842105263,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "672724",
"player_name": "Oswald Peraza",
"position": "2B",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.5903850070339404,
"contact": -0.7154751958019346,
"power": -0.3232823923277566,
"discipline": -1.1107151931089132,
"xwoba": 0.272,
"recent_xwoba": 0.272,
"barrel": 7.3,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.6965049894122604,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.0059146090535,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.3150205761316872,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "685133",
"player_name": "Wade Meckler",
"position": "RF",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.22027210616539342,
"contact": -0.1548923590506394,
"power": -0.5902479961068661,
"discipline": 0.05028212720882075,
"xwoba": 0.314,
"recent_xwoba": 0.314,
"barrel": 3.9,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.107055160232547,
"ab_bat_speed": 66.9659173126615,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.24302325581395348,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "694208",
"player_name": "Moisés Ballesteros",
"position": "DH",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": 0.26092565621110786,
"contact": 0.3064791117554854,
"power": 0.41429941371383,
"discipline": 0.01479553080602541,
"xwoba": 0.314,
"recent_xwoba": 0.314,
"barrel": 9.4,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.2722739885623241,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.93142993979201,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2267241379310345,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "674003",
"player_name": "Cody Bradford",
"quality": -0.0018724109398110828,
"contact": 2.0,
"command": -1.5200555555555557,
"movement": -1.6999999999999997,
"xwoba": 0.307,
"whiff": 25.8,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2673184860119048,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.86666666666667,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.23333333333333334,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006702420300892518
}
}
},
"fundamental_edge_target_review": {
"applied": false,
"method": "post_score_adjustment_fundamental_edge_review_v1",
"previous_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3,
"winner_side": "away"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3,
"winner_side": "away"
},
"signals": {
"season_quality_edge_home_minus_away": -0.5906,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.394,
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1032,
"composite_home_edge": -0.3763,
"existing_home_win_probability": 0.4881,
"refreshed_home_win_probability": 0.3203,
"winner_support_before_review": 0.3763
},
"reasons": [
"target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile"
]
},
"confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3,
"predicted_score_text": "TEX 4 - 3 LAA",
"confidence": 0.535478,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": false,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "TEX 4 - 3 LAA",
"winner": "TEX"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 7,
"home_runs": 2,
"score_text": "TEX 7 - 2 LAA",
"winner": "TEX"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1032,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.394,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": true,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 3,
"home_run_delta": -1,
"total_run_delta": 2,
"score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
"simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "TEX",
"model_winner": "TEX",
"simulation_winner": "TEX",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": true,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 5,
"simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
"score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 3
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 7,
"home_runs": 2
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 5,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.5906,
"winner": "TEX",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
},
"decision_profile": {
"method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
"winner": "TEX",
"display_confidence": 0.5355,
"internal_signal_score": 0.6123,
"internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
"model_pick_probability": 0.5355,
"confidence_compression_detected": true,
"moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
"betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
"market_context": null,
"margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
"totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
"winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
"signals": {
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.5906,
"winner_recent_form_edge": 0.444,
"winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.1032,
"winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.9,
"blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.4,
"high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
"low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3,
"total_runs_spread": {
"min": 5,
"median": 9,
"max": 10,
"range": 5
}
},
"interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away TEX | True | 1.0171 | 1.0171 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home LAA | True | 1.0151 | 1.0151 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS | Corey Seager | 180 | 1.0654 | 0.8721 | positive_batter_regression | 0.3340 | 0.2290 | 0.4470 | 14.50 | 45.40 | 91.20 | 12.80 | 35.60 | 26 | 12.40 | 1.0286 |
| 3B | Ezequiel Duran | 51 | 0.9982 | -0.0244 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3070 | 0.2530 | 0.3830 | 6.40 | 35.80 | 88.60 | 11.10 | 26.20 | 23.20 | 7.20 | -0.8571 |
| RF | Brandon Nimmo | 65 | 1.1124 | 1.4987 | neutral | 0.3720 | 0.2920 | 0.5040 | 11.30 | 51.40 | 92 | 11.50 | 22.20 | 21.60 | 8 | 0.8286 |
| DH | Joc Pederson | 103 | 1.0678 | 0.9046 | neutral | 0.3500 | 0.2540 | 0.4560 | 11.30 | 49.60 | 91.90 | 14.70 | 29.70 | 23.10 | 11 | -0.2857 |
| LF | Wyatt Langford | 76 | 0.9986 | -0.0186 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3050 | 0.2350 | 0.4010 | 8.10 | 38.10 | 89.40 | 19.60 | 24.50 | 22.60 | 6.70 | -1.1429 |
| CF | Evan Carter | 97 | 0.9760 | -0.3196 | neutral | 0.2930 | 0.2020 | 0.3280 | 5.80 | 36.50 | 87.50 | 17.20 | 28.50 | 23.50 | 12.70 | 0.0857 |
| 1B | Jake Burger | 107 | 1.0095 | 0.1262 | neutral | 0.2990 | 0.2280 | 0.3930 | 11 | 47.10 | 90 | 13.40 | 34.40 | 26.80 | 7.50 | -0.4000 |
| C | Austin Wynns | 536 | 0.9743 | -0.3426 | positive_batter_regression | 0.2400 | 0.2010 | 0.2980 | 3.80 | 28.30 | 85.20 | 17.30 | 25.60 | 26.90 | 5.10 | 2 |
| 2B | Nicky Lopez | 437 | 0.9516 | -0.6450 | neutral | 0.2620 | 0.2450 | 0.2940 | 0 | 22.30 | 84.50 | 2.30 | 18.40 | 16 | 4.50 | -0.7143 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3B | Vaughn Grissom | 280 | 1.0246 | 0.3276 | neutral | 0.3200 | 0.2560 | 0.3970 | 6.50 | 39.40 | 88.40 | 12.80 | 22.10 | 16.80 | 7.20 | 0.3429 |
| 1B | Nolan Schanuel | 110 | 1.0242 | 0.3225 | neutral | 0.3330 | 0.2820 | 0.3880 | 2.60 | 32.90 | 87.60 | 11.80 | 16.50 | 13.40 | 9.30 | 0.0857 |
| DH | Moisés Ballesteros | 481 | 1.0294 | 0.3918 | neutral | 0.3140 | 0.2460 | 0.3980 | 9.40 | 47.50 | 90.60 | 9.70 | 27 | 20.70 | 9.10 | 0.7143 |
| LF | Jose Siri | 221 | 1.0098 | 0.1304 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3210 | 0.2320 | 0.4460 | 13.30 | 41 | 88.10 | 17.50 | 34.50 | 29.60 | 6.70 | -1.0857 |
| RF | Wade Meckler | 194 | 0.9942 | -0.0774 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3140 | 0.2610 | 0.3700 | 3.90 | 31 | 86 | 6.80 | 24 | 22.20 | 9 | -1 |
| 2B | Oswald Peraza | 138 | 0.9687 | -0.4168 | neutral | 0.2720 | 0.2260 | 0.3460 | 7.30 | 38.70 | 87.60 | 9.80 | 30 | 30.30 | 3.60 | -0.2571 |
| CF | Mike Trout | 32 | 1.1220 | 1.6267 | neutral | 0.3870 | 0.2540 | 0.5060 | 16.90 | 47.30 | 90.10 | 17.40 | 23.90 | 26 | 17.90 | 0.8286 |
| SS | Zach Neto | 79 | 1.0013 | 0.0174 | neutral | 0.3000 | 0.2000 | 0.3920 | 12 | 40.10 | 89.40 | 22.60 | 33.30 | 32 | 9.50 | -0.5714 |
| C | Tyler Heineman | 522 | 0.9615 | -0.5135 | positive_batter_regression | 0.2490 | 0.2270 | 0.2740 | 1 | 12.30 | 81.20 | 11.10 | 19 | 16.80 | 3.60 | 1 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0151,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0151,
"team_espn_average_rank": 228.56,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "687093",
"player_name": "Vaughn Grissom",
"offense_factor": 1.0246,
"quality_score": 0.3276,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "687093",
"espn_id": 42503,
"player_name": "Vaughn Grissom",
"team": "LAA",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 280,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 280,
"gp_value": 77.0,
"gp_rank": 243,
"ab_value": 265.0,
"ab_rank": 205,
"r_value": 29.0,
"r_rank": 231,
"h_value": 67.0,
"h_rank": 188,
"avg_value": 0.2528301,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 15.0,
"2b_rank": 140,
"3b_value": 0.0,
"3b_rank": 263,
"hr_value": 7.0,
"hr_rank": 213,
"rbi_value": 46.0,
"rbi_rank": 118,
"tb_value": 103.0,
"tb_rank": 1493,
"bb_value": 21.0,
"bb_rank": 229,
"so_value": 51.0,
"so_rank": 252,
"sb_value": 0.0,
"sb_rank": 405,
"obp_value": 0.3152542,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.3886792,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.7039334,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.45,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 227.0,
"k_percent": 16.8,
"bb_percent": 7.2,
"woba": 0.308,
"xwoba": 0.32,
"xba": 0.256,
"xslg": 0.397,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 39.4,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.4,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.8,
"whiff_percent": 22.1,
"swing_percent": 49.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.3251,
"regression_edge": 0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.5143,
"xba_edge": 0.5429,
"xslg_edge": 0.4,
"barrel_edge": -0.0667,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.2214,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.08,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.0833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "694384",
"player_name": "Nolan Schanuel",
"offense_factor": 1.0242,
"quality_score": 0.3225,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "694384",
"espn_id": 4739755,
"player_name": "Nolan Schanuel",
"team": "LAA",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 110,
"espn_total_ranked": 632,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 110,
"gp_value": 99.0,
"gp_rank": 146,
"ab_value": 366.0,
"ab_rank": 115,
"r_value": 39.0,
"r_rank": 172,
"h_value": 99.0,
"h_rank": 88,
"avg_value": 0.2704918,
"avg_rank": 46.0,
"2b_value": 21.0,
"2b_rank": 58,
"3b_value": 0.0,
"3b_rank": 263,
"hr_value": 7.0,
"hr_rank": 213,
"rbi_value": 41.0,
"rbi_rank": 152,
"tb_value": 141.0,
"tb_rank": 1311,
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],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away TEX | True | 282 | 0.0293 | 0.4500 | 0.9975 | 1.0031 | 1 | 0.9985 | neutral | 0.3070 | 0.3080 | 23.10 | 8.90 | 25.80 | 7.10 | 37.70 | |
| Home LAA | True | 795 | -0.4251 | 0.6760 | 1.0361 | 0.9730 | 1.0257 | 1.0702 | neutral | 0.3620 | 0.3750 | 16.50 | 10.80 | 24.20 | 10.90 | 36.40 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away TEX | False | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Home LAA | True | None | 84 | 87.20 | 2238 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1518 |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 1.0244 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 0.9989 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | -0.4544 |
{
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"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
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},
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"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 87.2014,
"release_spin_rate": 2237.5268,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.1518,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.0842,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.4251,
"sample_weight": 0.676,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0361,
"strikeout_factor": 0.973,
"walk_factor": 1.0257,
"homer_factor": 1.0702,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "696270",
"espn_id": 5007859,
"player_name": "Ryan Johnson",
"team": "LAA",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 795,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 795,
"gp_value": 13.0,
"gp_rank": 437,
"gs_value": 10.0,
"gs_rank": 153,
"qs_value": 1.0,
"qs_rank": 166,
"era_value": 7.1052,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 2.0,
"w_rank": 281,
"l_value": 6.0,
"l_rank": 82,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 50.2,
"ip_rank": 223,
"h_value": 56.0,
"h_rank": 168,
"er_value": 40.0,
"er_rank": 114,
"hr_value": 13.0,
"hr_rank": 81,
"bb_value": 25.0,
"bb_rank": 169,
"k_value": 38.0,
"k_rank": 310,
"k_per_9_value": 6.75,
"k_per_9_rank": 37,
"whip_value": 1.5986,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": -1.19,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "674003",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 0.0,
"k_percent": 23.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.308,
"xwoba": 0.307,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.8,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0772,
"command_and_miss": 0.0729,
"regression_edge": 0.0286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
"barrel_edge": 0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0429,
"bb_edge": 0.0,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "674003",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.0293,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0031,
"walk_factor": 1.0,
"homer_factor": 0.9985,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "674003",
"espn_id": 4142539,
"player_name": "Cody Bradford",
"team": "TEX",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 282,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 282,
"gp_value": 1.0,
"gp_rank": 733,
"gs_value": 1.0,
"gs_rank": 279,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 0.0,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 0.0,
"w_rank": 476,
"l_value": 0.0,
"l_rank": 530,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 4.1,
"ip_rank": 674,
"h_value": 5.0,
"h_rank": 672,
"er_value": 0.0,
"er_rank": 764,
"hr_value": 0.0,
"hr_rank": 690,
"bb_value": 2.0,
"bb_rank": 663,
"k_value": 5.0,
"k_rank": 625,
"k_per_9_value": 10.384615,
"k_per_9_rank": 25,
"whip_value": 1.6153,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.3,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 1.0244,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 0.9989,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": -0.4544
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 5.0,
"home_runs": 2.0
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 5.122,
"home_runs": 1.9978,
"home_win_probability": 0.2263
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away TEX | 5-5 | 0.500 | 3.70 | 4.50 | -8 | 1W | average | average |
| Home LAA | 3-7 | 0.300 | 2.10 | 4.40 | -23 | 3L | cold | average |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away TEX | 59-59 | 0.500 | -33 | -0.280 | True |
| Home LAA | 45-73 | 0.381 | -91 | -0.771 | True |
| Signal | - | - | -0.491 | -0.591 | applied=True |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | TEX @ LAA | 4 - 1 | TEX | 3 | blowout |
| 2026-07-09 | LAA @ TEX | 6 - 7 | TEX | 1 | close |
| 2026-07-08 | LAA @ TEX | 13 - 1 | LAA | 12 | blowout |
| 2026-07-07 | LAA @ TEX | 3 - 8 | TEX | 5 | blowout |
| 2026-05-24 | TEX @ LAA | 1 - 2 | LAA | 1 | close |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target TEX | - | - | 4 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target LAA | - | - | 3 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized TEX | 33 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| Player finalized LAA | 32 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| Player model fractional TEX | 30.75 | 6.24 | 3.96 | 1.08 | 3.60 | 2.92 | 7.70 |
| Player model fractional LAA | 30.70 | 6.55 | 3.34 | 1.01 | 3.24 | 2.76 | 7.95 |
| Simulation box TEX | 36 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| Simulation box LAA | 31 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away TEX | Starter | Cody Bradford | 4.10 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 3.74 | 1.38 | True |
| Away TEX | Middle Reliever | Jacob Latz | 2.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.06 | 1.25 | True |
| Away TEX | Middle Reliever | Chase Silseth | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3.56 | 1.70 | True |
| Away TEX | Middle Reliever | Peyton Gray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.10 | 1.23 | True |
| Home LAA | Starter | Ryan Johnson | 4 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 6.22 | 1.50 | True |
| Home LAA | Middle Reliever | Samy Natera Jr. | 1.10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2.87 | 1.06 | True |
| Home LAA | Middle Reliever | Ben Joyce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4.01 | 1.26 | True |
| Home LAA | Middle Reliever | José Fermin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.49 | 1.54 | True |
| Home LAA | Middle Reliever | Luke Murphy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.54 | 1.37 | True |
| Home LAA | Middle Reliever | Blake Weiman | 0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.05 | 1.35 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away | TEX | batter | RF | Brandon Nimmo | better | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 4 | predicted_RBI | 2.1700 | boost | better |
| away | TEX | batter | C | Austin Wynns | better | 10 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | predicted_RBI | 1.9700 | boost | better |
| home | LAA | batter | SS | Zach Neto | worse | 10 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 8 | predicted_SO | -1.4310 | deboost | better |
| away | TEX | batter | LF | Wyatt Langford | neutral | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | predicted_H | 1.4000 | boost | better |
| home | LAA | batter | RF | Wade Meckler | worse | 11 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 11 | predicted_SO | 1.2500 | boost | worse |
| away | TEX | batter | 2B | Nicky Lopez | worse | 9 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 8 | predicted_AB | 1.1720 | boost | better |
| home | LAA | batter | CF | Mike Trout | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | predicted_SO | -1.1500 | deboost | better |
| away | TEX | batter | 1B | Jake Burger | better | 10 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | predicted_H | 1.0800 | boost | better |
| away | TEX | batter | DH | Joc Pederson | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | predicted_AB | 1.0750 | boost | better |
| away | TEX | batter | SS | Corey Seager | worse | 9 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 7 | predicted_H | -0.9600 | deboost | worse |
| home | LAA | batter | 2B | Oswald Peraza | worse | 11 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 9 | predicted_SO | 0.9550 | boost | worse |
| home | LAA | batter | 3B | Vaughn Grissom | better | 11 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | predicted_HR | 0.9050 | boost | better |
| away | TEX | batter | 3B | Ezequiel Duran | better | 9 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | predicted_SO | -0.8980 | deboost | better |
| away | TEX | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Jacob Latz | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.8667 | boost | better |
| home | LAA | batter | LF | Jose Siri | worse | 9 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 6 | predicted_SO | -0.8600 | deboost | better |
| home | LAA | batter | 1B | Nolan Schanuel | worse | 9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 9 | predicted_H | -0.8500 | deboost | worse |
| home | LAA | batter | C | Tyler Heineman | worse | 9 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 7 | predicted_H | 0.8000 | boost | better |
| away | TEX | batter | CF | Evan Carter | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | predicted_SO | -0.7980 | deboost | better |
| home | LAA | pitcher | Starter | Ryan Johnson | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.6667 | deboost | worse |
| home | LAA | batter | DH | Moisés Ballesteros | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 10 | predicted_H | -0.6150 | deboost | worse |
| away | TEX | pitcher | Starter | Cody Bradford | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.2333 | deboost | worse |
| home | LAA | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Samy Natera Jr. | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.2333 | deboost | worse |
| home | LAA | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Blake Weiman | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.1000 | boost | better |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Cody Bradford |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0293 |
| ESPN Rank | 282 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 4.1000 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 5 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 4 |
| Season ERA | 0 |
| Season WHIP | 1.6154 |
| Role Avg IP | 4.3330 |
| Recent Avg IP | 4.3330 |
| Last Start IP | 4.1000 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "TEX",
"games": 125,
"wins": 64,
"losses": 61,
"win_pct": 0.512,
"runs_scored": 524.0,
"runs_allowed": 550.0,
"run_differential": -26.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.208,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.192,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
"offense_index": 0.9333,
"defense_index": 1.0208,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": -8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0153
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAA",
"games": 126,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 76,
"win_pct": 0.3968,
"runs_scored": 519.0,
"runs_allowed": 612.0,
"run_differential": -93.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.7381,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.119,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.8571,
"offense_index": 0.9171,
"defense_index": 0.9247,
"current_streak": "L3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 3,
"losses": 7,
"win_pct": 0.3,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
"run_differential": -23.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2481
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.2328,
"offense_edge": -0.0667,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0829,
"defense_strength": 0.0208,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0753,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0133,
"run_prevention": 0.973,
"strikeout": 1.0136
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "674003",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "674003",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 0.0,
"k_percent": 23.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.308,
"xwoba": 0.307,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.8,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0772,
"command_and_miss": 0.0729,
"regression_edge": 0.0286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
"barrel_edge": 0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0429,
"bb_edge": 0.0,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "674003",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.0293,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0031,
"walk_factor": 1.0,
"homer_factor": 0.9985,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "674003",
"espn_id": 4142539,
"player_name": "Cody Bradford",
"team": "TEX",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 282,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 282,
"gp_value": 1.0,
"gp_rank": 733,
"gs_value": 1.0,
"gs_rank": 279,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 0.0,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 0.0,
"w_rank": 476,
"l_value": 0.0,
"l_rank": 530,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 315,
"ip_value": 4.1,
"ip_rank": 674,
"h_value": 5.0,
"h_rank": 672,
"er_value": 0.0,
"er_rank": 764,
"hr_value": 0.0,
"hr_rank": 690,
"bb_value": 2.0,
"bb_rank": 663,
"k_value": 5.0,
"k_rank": 625,
"k_per_9_value": 10.384615,
"k_per_9_rank": 25,
"whip_value": 1.6153,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.3,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9989,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 0.9989,
"adjusted": 5
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9993,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 1.0014,
"adjusted": 5
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "insufficient_data"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 0,
"H": 5,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 5,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 1.6153846153846154,
"K9": 10.384615384615385,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 1,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 1,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 1,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-05T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "674003",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 1.0
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 1.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.1667,
"prior_weight": 0.8333
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "674003",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 1,
"reference_playing_time": 4.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 1,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 20.0,
"Pitches": 70.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 20.0,
"Pitches": 70.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 1.6154,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 1.15385,
"BB_per_IP": 0.46154,
"SO_per_IP": 1.15385,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 1,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 20.0,
"Pitches": 70.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 20.0,
"Pitches": 70.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 1.6154,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 1.15385,
"BB_per_IP": 0.46154,
"SO_per_IP": 1.15385,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 1,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 20.0,
"Pitches": 70.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 20.0,
"Pitches": 70.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 1.6154,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 1.15385,
"BB_per_IP": 0.46154,
"SO_per_IP": 1.15385,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 4.1,
"predicted_ER": 1.8,
"predicted_H": 4.346,
"predicted_BB": 1.634,
"predicted_SO": 4.295,
"predicted_HR": 0.536,
"predicted_ERA": 3.7389,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.38
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.7021,
"form_weight": 0.2979,
"form_reliability": 0.1667,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 1.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.1667,
"prior_weight": 0.8333
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 4.1,
"form": 4.1,
"final": 4.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.8,
"final": 1.9404,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"form": 4.346,
"final": 4.8052,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"form": 1.634,
"final": 0.4868,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"form": 4.295,
"final": 4.0879,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.536,
"final": 0.8618,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.7389,
"final": 3.7389,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.38,
"final": 1.38,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jacob Latz |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.4880 |
| ESPN Rank | 41 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 2.2000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 1.3333 |
| Season WHIP | 0.6667 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "TEX",
"games": 125,
"wins": 64,
"losses": 61,
"win_pct": 0.512,
"runs_scored": 524.0,
"runs_allowed": 550.0,
"run_differential": -26.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.208,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.192,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
"offense_index": 0.9333,
"defense_index": 1.0208,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": -8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0153
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAA",
"games": 126,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 76,
"win_pct": 0.3968,
"runs_scored": 519.0,
"runs_allowed": 612.0,
"run_differential": -93.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.7381,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.119,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.8571,
"offense_index": 0.9171,
"defense_index": 0.9247,
"current_streak": "L3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 3,
"losses": 7,
"win_pct": 0.3,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
"run_differential": -23.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2481
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.2328,
"offense_edge": -0.0667,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0829,
"defense_strength": 0.0208,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0753,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0133,
"run_prevention": 0.973,
"strikeout": 1.0136
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "656641",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656641",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 160.0,
"k_percent": 28.1,
"bb_percent": 6.6,
"woba": 0.196,
"xwoba": 0.246,
"sweet_spot_percent": 25.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
"avg_best_speed": 78.4498,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.6349,
"whiff_percent": 29.2,
"swing_percent": 53.0
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.3013,
"command_and_miss": 0.6793,
"regression_edge": -1.4286,
"xwoba_edge": 1.8571,
"barrel_edge": 0.3556,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0857,
"whiff_edge": 0.5286,
"bb_edge": 0.575,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "656641",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.488,
"sample_weight": 0.64,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9585,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0351,
"walk_factor": 0.9706,
"homer_factor": 0.9483,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.05,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "656641",
"espn_id": 3210625,
"player_name": "Jacob Latz",
"team": "TEX",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 41,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 41,
"gp_value": 43.0,
"gp_rank": 96,
"gs_value": 1.0,
"gs_rank": 279,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 1.8333,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 3.0,
"w_rank": 206,
"l_value": 1.0,
"l_rank": 381,
"sv_value": 23.0,
"sv_rank": 11,
"hld_value": 2.0,
"hld_rank": 205,
"ip_value": 54.0,
"ip_rank": 204,
"h_value": 26.0,
"h_rank": 404,
"er_value": 11.0,
"er_rank": 441,
"hr_value": 3.0,
"hr_rank": 387,
"bb_value": 14.0,
"bb_rank": 341,
"k_value": 56.0,
"k_rank": 189,
"k_per_9_value": 9.333333,
"k_per_9_rank": 25,
"whip_value": 0.7407,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 2.31,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9734,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9734,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9812,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9669,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 1.0225,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 12.0,
"ER": 3,
"H": 9,
"BB": 5,
"SO": 13,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 2.2500000000000004,
"WHIP": 1.1666666666666667,
"K9": 9.750000000000002,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "656641",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.799,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6835,
"prior_weight": 0.3165
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "656641",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 42,
"reference_playing_time": 1.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 6.0,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 7.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 26.0,
"Pitches": 112.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 1.4,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 5.2,
"Pitches": 22.4
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
"H_per_IP": 1.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.5,
"SO_per_IP": 1.16667,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
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"ER": 3.0,
"R": 4.0,
"H": 9.0,
"BB": 5.0,
"SO": 13.0,
"HR": 0.0,
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"Pitches": 212.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.3,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 0.9,
"BB": 0.5,
"SO": 1.3,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.8,
"Pitches": 21.2
},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 0.25,
"H_per_IP": 0.75,
"BB_per_IP": 0.41667,
"SO_per_IP": 1.08333,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 42,
"totals": {
"IP": 54.0,
"ER": 8.0,
"R": 9.0,
"H": 23.0,
"BB": 13.0,
"SO": 56.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 196.0,
"Pitches": 823.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.1905,
"R": 0.2143,
"H": 0.5476,
"BB": 0.3095,
"SO": 1.3333,
"HR": 0.0714,
"BF": 4.6667,
"Pitches": 19.5952
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.3333,
"WHIP": 0.6667,
"ER_per_IP": 0.14815,
"H_per_IP": 0.42593,
"BB_per_IP": 0.24074,
"SO_per_IP": 1.03704,
"HR_per_IP": 0.05556
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.454,
"predicted_H": 1.137,
"predicted_BB": 0.534,
"predicted_SO": 1.418,
"predicted_HR": 0.073,
"predicted_ERA": 3.0633,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2535
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4837,
"form_weight": 0.5163,
"form_reliability": 0.6835,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.799,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6835,
"prior_weight": 0.3165
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.1,
"form": 1.1,
"final": 1.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.454,
"final": 0.2344,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.137,
"final": 0.587,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.534,
"final": 0.2757,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.418,
"final": 1.2158,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.073,
"final": 0.0377,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.0633,
"final": 3.0633,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.2535,
"final": 1.2535,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Chase Silseth |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0276 |
| ESPN Rank | 140 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 2.8421 |
| Season WHIP | 1.4887 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "TEX",
"games": 125,
"wins": 64,
"losses": 61,
"win_pct": 0.512,
"runs_scored": 524.0,
"runs_allowed": 550.0,
"run_differential": -26.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.208,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.192,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
"offense_index": 0.9333,
"defense_index": 1.0208,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": -8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0153
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAA",
"games": 126,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 76,
"win_pct": 0.3968,
"runs_scored": 519.0,
"runs_allowed": 612.0,
"run_differential": -93.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.7381,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.119,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.8571,
"offense_index": 0.9171,
"defense_index": 0.9247,
"current_streak": "L3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 3,
"losses": 7,
"win_pct": 0.3,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
"run_differential": -23.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2481
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.2328,
"offense_edge": -0.0667,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0829,
"defense_strength": 0.0208,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0753,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0133,
"run_prevention": 0.973,
"strikeout": 1.0136
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "681217",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "681217",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 26.3,
"bb_percent": 13.4,
"woba": 0.312,
"xwoba": 0.314,
"sweet_spot_percent": 43.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.2,
"avg_best_speed": 74.6915,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.3744,
"whiff_percent": 32.4,
"swing_percent": 46.8
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.0888,
"command_and_miss": 0.3836,
"regression_edge": -0.0571,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0857,
"barrel_edge": -0.5556,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7857,
"whiff_edge": 0.9857,
"bb_edge": -1.125,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "681217",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.0276,
"sample_weight": 0.624,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9977,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0392,
"walk_factor": 1.0562,
"homer_factor": 1.0097,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "681217",
"espn_id": 4413990,
"player_name": "Chase Silseth",
"team": "TEX",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 140,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 140,
"gp_value": 52.0,
"gp_rank": 25,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 2.8421,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 3.0,
"w_rank": 206,
"l_value": 2.0,
"l_rank": 279,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 10.0,
"hld_rank": 59,
"ip_value": 44.1,
"ip_rank": 280,
"h_value": 39.0,
"h_rank": 272,
"er_value": 14.0,
"er_rank": 366,
"hr_value": 4.0,
"hr_rank": 320,
"bb_value": 27.0,
"bb_rank": 142,
"k_value": 51.0,
"k_rank": 219,
"k_per_9_value": 10.353384,
"k_per_9_rank": 21,
"whip_value": 1.4887,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 1.1,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9986,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 0.9986,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 1.0351,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 1.0061,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 1.0245,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 2,
"H": 9,
"BB": 7,
"SO": 6,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 2.0769230769230766,
"WHIP": 1.8461538461538458,
"K9": 6.23076923076923,
"HR9": 1.0384615384615383,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "681217",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 8.866,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6394,
"prior_weight": 0.3606
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "681217",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 52,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.2,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 5.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 24.0,
"Pitches": 77.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 4.8,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 2.1429,
"ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
"H_per_IP": 1.07143,
"BB_per_IP": 1.07143,
"SO_per_IP": 0.64286,
"HR_per_IP": 0.21429
}
},
"last_10": {
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"totals": {
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"ER": 2.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 9.0,
"BB": 7.0,
"SO": 6.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 42.0,
"Pitches": 151.0
},
"per_game": {
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"R": 0.3,
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"Pitches": 15.1
},
"rates": {
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"H_per_IP": 1.03846,
"BB_per_IP": 0.80769,
"SO_per_IP": 0.69231,
"HR_per_IP": 0.11538
}
},
"season": {
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"totals": {
"IP": 44.1,
"ER": 14.0,
"R": 16.0,
"H": 39.0,
"BB": 27.0,
"SO": 51.0,
"HR": 4.0,
"BF": 198.0,
"Pitches": 806.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.2692,
"R": 0.3077,
"H": 0.75,
"BB": 0.5192,
"SO": 0.9808,
"HR": 0.0769,
"BF": 3.8077,
"Pitches": 15.5
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.4887,
"ER_per_IP": 0.31579,
"H_per_IP": 0.8797,
"BB_per_IP": 0.60902,
"SO_per_IP": 1.15038,
"HR_per_IP": 0.09023
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.395,
"predicted_H": 1.004,
"predicted_BB": 0.697,
"predicted_SO": 0.833,
"predicted_HR": 0.153,
"predicted_ERA": 3.556,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.7008
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5024,
"form_weight": 0.4976,
"form_reliability": 0.6394,
"form_shrinkage": {
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"sample_size": 8.866,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6394,
"prior_weight": 0.3606
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
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"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
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},
"predicted_ER": {
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"form": 0.395,
"final": 0.1966,
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},
"predicted_H": {
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"form": 1.004,
"final": 0.4996,
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},
"predicted_BB": {
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},
"predicted_SO": {
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"final": 1.4192,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"form": 0.153,
"final": 0.0761,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.556,
"final": 3.556,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.7008,
"final": 1.7008,
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}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Peyton Gray |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.2949 |
| ESPN Rank | 322 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 3.3022 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2086 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "TEX",
"games": 125,
"wins": 64,
"losses": 61,
"win_pct": 0.512,
"runs_scored": 524.0,
"runs_allowed": 550.0,
"run_differential": -26.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.208,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.192,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
"offense_index": 0.9333,
"defense_index": 1.0208,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": -8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0153
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAA",
"games": 126,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 76,
"win_pct": 0.3968,
"runs_scored": 519.0,
"runs_allowed": 612.0,
"run_differential": -93.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.7381,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.119,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.8571,
"offense_index": 0.9171,
"defense_index": 0.9247,
"current_streak": "L3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 3,
"losses": 7,
"win_pct": 0.3,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
"run_differential": -23.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2481
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.2328,
"offense_edge": -0.0667,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0829,
"defense_strength": 0.0208,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0753,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0133,
"run_prevention": 0.973,
"strikeout": 1.0136
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "682608",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "682608",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 154.0,
"k_percent": 23.9,
"bb_percent": 7.1,
"woba": 0.297,
"xwoba": 0.278,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.1,
"avg_best_speed": 75.0393,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.8758,
"whiff_percent": 26.5,
"swing_percent": 49.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.6422,
"command_and_miss": 0.2493,
"regression_edge": 0.5429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.9429,
"barrel_edge": 0.4,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6571,
"whiff_edge": 0.1429,
"bb_edge": 0.45,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "682608",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.2949,
"sample_weight": 0.616,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9749,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0095,
"walk_factor": 0.9778,
"homer_factor": 0.9467,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.019,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "682608",
"espn_id": 4187628,
"player_name": "Peyton Gray",
"team": "TEX",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 322,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 322,
"gp_value": 39.0,
"gp_rank": 127,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 3.3021,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 6.0,
"w_rank": 76,
"l_value": 0.0,
"l_rank": 530,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 8.0,
"hld_rank": 87,
"ip_value": 46.1,
"ip_rank": 262,
"h_value": 42.0,
"h_rank": 241,
"er_value": 17.0,
"er_rank": 317,
"hr_value": 5.0,
"hr_rank": 273,
"bb_value": 14.0,
"bb_rank": 341,
"k_value": 48.0,
"k_rank": 244,
"k_per_9_value": 9.323741,
"k_per_9_rank": 25,
"whip_value": 1.2086,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.2,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9845,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9845,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9863,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9672,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0059,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.2,
"ER": 3,
"H": 10,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 10,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 2.53125,
"WHIP": 1.125,
"K9": 8.4375,
"HR9": 1.6875,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "682608",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 9.266,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6495,
"prior_weight": 0.3505
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "682608",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 39,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.0,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 4.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 4.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 21.0,
"Pitches": 65.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 0.8,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 4.2,
"Pitches": 13.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.8,
"WHIP": 1.2,
"ER_per_IP": 0.2,
"H_per_IP": 0.8,
"BB_per_IP": 0.4,
"SO_per_IP": 0.8,
"HR_per_IP": 0.2
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 10.2,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 10.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 10.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 44.0,
"Pitches": 157.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.3,
"R": 0.3,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 4.4,
"Pitches": 15.7
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.5312,
"WHIP": 1.125,
"ER_per_IP": 0.28125,
"H_per_IP": 0.9375,
"BB_per_IP": 0.1875,
"SO_per_IP": 0.9375,
"HR_per_IP": 0.1875
}
},
"season": {
"games": 39,
"totals": {
"IP": 46.1,
"ER": 17.0,
"R": 21.0,
"H": 42.0,
"BB": 14.0,
"SO": 48.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 200.0,
"Pitches": 757.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.4359,
"R": 0.5385,
"H": 1.0769,
"BB": 0.359,
"SO": 1.2308,
"HR": 0.1282,
"BF": 5.1282,
"Pitches": 19.4103
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.3022,
"WHIP": 1.2086,
"ER_per_IP": 0.36691,
"H_per_IP": 0.90647,
"BB_per_IP": 0.30216,
"SO_per_IP": 1.03597,
"HR_per_IP": 0.10791
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.36,
"predicted_H": 0.945,
"predicted_BB": 0.339,
"predicted_SO": 0.957,
"predicted_HR": 0.174,
"predicted_ERA": 3.1031,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2307
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4981,
"form_weight": 0.5019,
"form_reliability": 0.6495,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 9.266,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6495,
"prior_weight": 0.3505
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.36,
"final": 0.1807,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.945,
"final": 0.4743,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.339,
"final": 0.1701,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.957,
"final": 0.4803,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.174,
"final": 0.0873,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.1031,
"final": 3.1031,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2307,
"final": 1.2307,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.119 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.131 | 0.000 | -0.131 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.320 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.742 | 5.000 | 1.258 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.184 | 0.200 | -0.184 | -0.200 |
| predicted_BB | 0.525 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.594 | 0.000 | -0.594 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.960 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.690 | 1.000 | -0.690 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.210 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.201 | 0.000 | -0.201 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.304 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.300 | 0.200 | -0.300 | -0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.559 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.572 | 1.000 | -0.572 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.550 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.493 | 0.000 | -0.493 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.401 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.380 | 0.200 | -0.380 | -0.200 |
| predicted_SO | 1.102 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.162 | 0.000 | -0.162 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 4.3200 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.6800, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.9600 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9600, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | - | predicted_AB: 4.3200 -> 4.0861 (deboost -0.2339, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.9188 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0812, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.5278 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5278, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.045 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5845 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4155, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2249 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0251, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3952 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1452, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3952 (boost 0.1452, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2249 (deboost -0.0251, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "608369",
"player_name": "Corey Seager",
"position": "SS",
"team": "TEX",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_AVG": 0.221,
"predicted_BB": 0.525,
"predicted_H": 0.96,
"predicted_HR": 0.21,
"predicted_OBP": 0.304,
"predicted_R": 0.559,
"predicted_RBI": 0.55,
"predicted_SLG": 0.401,
"predicted_SO": 1.102
},
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 4.0861,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2208,
"predicted_BB": 0.4889,
"predicted_H": 0.9055,
"predicted_HBP": 0.022,
"predicted_HR": 0.192,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3042,
"predicted_R": 0.5691,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5139,
"predicted_SLG": 0.393,
"predicted_SO": 1.0039
},
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},
{
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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],
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},
"weights": {
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"form_windows": {
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"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
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"season": 59
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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},
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},
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},
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{
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{
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{
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{
"index": 6,
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{
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"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2249,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.308,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3952,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2249,
"delta": -0.0251,
"percent_delta": -0.1005,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.308,
"delta": 0.058,
"percent_delta": 0.2321,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3952,
"delta": 0.1452,
"percent_delta": 0.5807,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3952,
"delta": 0.1452,
"percent_delta": 0.5807,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2249,
"delta": -0.0251,
"percent_delta": -0.1005,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.119,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.119,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.32,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.68,
"percent_delta": 0.1574,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.221,
"after": 0.2249,
"delta": 0.0039,
"percent_delta": 0.0176,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.525,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.525,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.96,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.96,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.21,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.304,
"after": 0.308,
"delta": 0.004,
"percent_delta": 0.0132,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.559,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.559,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.55,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.55,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.401,
"after": 0.3952,
"delta": -0.0058,
"percent_delta": -0.0145,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.102,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.102,
"percent_delta": -0.0926,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.32,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.68,
"percent_delta": 0.1574,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.96,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.96,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.119 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.320 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.525 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.960 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.210 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.304 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.559 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.550 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.401 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.102 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.112 | -0.007 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.086 | -0.234 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | -0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.489 | -0.036 |
| predicted_H | 0.905 | -0.054 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.022 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.192 | -0.018 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.304 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.569 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.514 | -0.036 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.393 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 1.004 | -0.098 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.112 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.086 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.491 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.919 | 0.013 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.194 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.585 | 0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.528 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.395 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.004 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.045
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.112 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.086 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.025 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.491 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.081 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.194 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.058 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.415 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.528 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.145 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.2500 | 0.2857 | 0.4000 | 0.2500 | 0.0500 | 0.1500 | 0.0500 | 0.0500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 8.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3415 | 0.3611 | 0.2500 | 0.0278 | 0.0833 | 0.1389 | 0.2222 |
| season | 0.60 | 59 | - | 220.000 | 43.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 11.000 | 28.000 | 33.000 | 31.000 | 65.000 | 0.1955 | 0.2980 | 0.3773 | 0.1955 | 0.0500 | 0.1273 | 0.1409 | 0.2954 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7620 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2206 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4390 |
| predicted_H | 0.8300 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0220 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1670 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3044 |
| predicted_R | 0.5830 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4640 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3818 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8680 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1190 | 0.1020 | 0.1119 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0020 | 0.0008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.3200 | 3.7620 | 4.0861 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2210 | 0.2206 | 0.2208 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5250 | 0.4390 | 0.4889 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9600 | 0.8300 | 0.9055 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0220 | 0.0220 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2100 | 0.1670 | 0.1920 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3040 | 0.3044 | 0.3042 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5590 | 0.5830 | 0.5691 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5500 | 0.4640 | 0.5139 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4010 | 0.3818 | 0.3930 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1020 | 0.8680 | 1.0039 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 229 |
| Season rows before report date | 229 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 59 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.195 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.2 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 608369 |
| playerID | 608369 |
| playerName | Corey Seager |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | TEX |
| teamID | 28 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.298 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.334 |
| sl_xba | 0.229 |
| sl_xslg | 0.447 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 14.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 45.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 35.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.204 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.227 | 0.000 | 0.773 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.028 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.027 | 0.000 | -0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.519 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.622 | 5.000 | 0.378 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.271 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.281 | 0.200 | -0.031 | 0.050 |
| predicted_BB | 0.278 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.312 | 0.000 | -0.312 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.016 | 0.000 | -0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.954 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.019 | 1.000 | -0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.110 | 0.000 | -0.110 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.338 | 0.200 | -0.088 | 0.050 |
| predicted_R | 0.500 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.501 | 1.000 | 0.499 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.593 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.614 | 0.000 | 0.386 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.447 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.450 | 0.200 | 0.050 | 0.300 |
| predicted_SO | 0.898 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.929 | 1.000 | -0.929 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.2040 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7960, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8980 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8980, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4470 -> 0.4196 (deboost -0.0274, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.5401 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.4599, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3077 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3077, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.031 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5223 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4777, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4244 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1744, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4244 (boost 0.1744, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "677649",
"player_name": "Ezequiel Duran",
"position": "3B",
"team": "TEX",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.204,
"predicted_3B": 0.028,
"predicted_AB": 3.519,
"predicted_AVG": 0.271,
"predicted_BB": 0.278,
"predicted_H": 0.954,
"predicted_HR": 0.12,
"predicted_OBP": 0.324,
"predicted_R": 0.5,
"predicted_RBI": 0.593,
"predicted_SLG": 0.447,
"predicted_SO": 0.898
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1937,
"predicted_3B": 0.0233,
"predicted_AB": 3.5401,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2596,
"predicted_BB": 0.3064,
"predicted_H": 0.9187,
"predicted_HBP": 0.018,
"predicted_HR": 0.1088,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3193,
"predicted_R": 0.5086,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5655,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4196,
"predicted_SO": 0.9135
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.204,
"after": 0.1937,
"delta": -0.0103,
"percent_delta": -0.0505,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.028,
"after": 0.0233,
"delta": -0.0047,
"percent_delta": -0.1679,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.519,
"after": 3.5401,
"delta": 0.0211,
"percent_delta": 0.006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.271,
"after": 0.2596,
"delta": -0.0114,
"percent_delta": -0.0421,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.278,
"after": 0.3064,
"delta": 0.0284,
"percent_delta": 0.1022,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.954,
"after": 0.9187,
"delta": -0.0353,
"percent_delta": -0.037,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.1088,
"delta": -0.0112,
"percent_delta": -0.0933,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.3193,
"delta": -0.0047,
"percent_delta": -0.0145,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 0.5086,
"delta": 0.0086,
"percent_delta": 0.0172,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.593,
"after": 0.5655,
"delta": -0.0275,
"percent_delta": -0.0464,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.447,
"after": 0.4196,
"delta": -0.0274,
"percent_delta": -0.0613,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.898,
"after": 0.9135,
"delta": 0.0155,
"percent_delta": 0.0173,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.447,
"after": 0.4196,
"delta": -0.0274,
"percent_delta": -0.0613,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 108
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1937,
"predicted_3B": 0.0233,
"predicted_AB": 3.5401,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2633,
"predicted_BB": 0.3077,
"predicted_H": 0.9322,
"predicted_HBP": 0.018,
"predicted_HR": 0.11,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3222,
"predicted_R": 0.5223,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5808,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4244,
"predicted_SO": 0.9096
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1937,
"after": 0.1937,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0233,
"after": 0.0233,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5401,
"after": 3.5401,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2596,
"after": 0.2633,
"delta": 0.0037,
"percent_delta": 0.0143,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3064,
"after": 0.3077,
"delta": 0.0013,
"percent_delta": 0.0042,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9187,
"after": 0.9322,
"delta": 0.0135,
"percent_delta": 0.0147,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.018,
"after": 0.018,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1088,
"after": 0.11,
"delta": 0.0012,
"percent_delta": 0.011,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3193,
"after": 0.3222,
"delta": 0.0029,
"percent_delta": 0.0091,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5086,
"after": 0.5223,
"delta": 0.0137,
"percent_delta": 0.0269,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5655,
"after": 0.5808,
"delta": 0.0153,
"percent_delta": 0.0271,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4196,
"after": 0.4244,
"delta": 0.0048,
"percent_delta": 0.0114,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9135,
"after": 0.9096,
"delta": -0.0039,
"percent_delta": -0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.031",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1937,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1937,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0233,
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"delta": -0.0233,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 0.4599,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": -0.3077,
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},
{
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{
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"material": false
},
{
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.4192,
"percent_delta": 0.7218,
"direction": "boost",
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{
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"delta": 0.0904,
"percent_delta": 0.0994,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.4599,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5223,
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"delta": 0.4777,
"percent_delta": 0.9146,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.25,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.25,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"delta": -0.0722,
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4244,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.1744,
"percent_delta": -0.4109,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4244,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.1744,
"percent_delta": -0.4109,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2633,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3222,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4244,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2633,
"delta": 0.0133,
"percent_delta": 0.0533,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3222,
"delta": 0.0722,
"percent_delta": 0.289,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4244,
"delta": 0.1744,
"percent_delta": 0.6978,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4244,
"delta": 0.1744,
"percent_delta": 0.6978,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.204,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.796,
"percent_delta": 3.902,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.028,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.028,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.519,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.481,
"percent_delta": 0.1367,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.271,
"after": 0.2633,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -0.0284,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.278,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.278,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.954,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.046,
"percent_delta": 0.0482,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.12,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.3222,
"delta": -0.0018,
"percent_delta": -0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.593,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.407,
"percent_delta": 0.6863,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.447,
"after": 0.4244,
"delta": -0.0226,
"percent_delta": -0.0506,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.898,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.898,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.204,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.796,
"percent_delta": 3.902,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.898,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.898,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.204 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.028 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.519 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.271 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.278 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.954 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.500 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.593 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.447 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.898 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.194 | -0.010 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.540 | 0.021 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.260 | -0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.306 | 0.028 |
| predicted_H | 0.919 | -0.035 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.018 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.109 | -0.011 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.319 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.509 | 0.009 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.566 | -0.027 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.420 | -0.027 |
| predicted_SO | 0.913 | 0.015 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.194 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.540 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.263 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.308 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.932 | 0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.018 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.522 | 0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.581 | 0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.424 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 0.910 | -0.004 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.031
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.194 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.023 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.460 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.308 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.068 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.110 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.072 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.478 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.419 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.174 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.090 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.1176 | 0.2500 | 0.1176 | 0.1177 | 0.0000 | 0.0588 | 0.1765 | 0.2941 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 11.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 0.2895 | 0.3415 | 0.4474 | 0.2895 | 0.0263 | 0.1842 | 0.0790 | 0.2632 |
| season | 0.60 | 108 | - | 380.000 | 103.000 | 22.000 | 3.000 | 13.000 | 64.000 | 54.000 | 30.000 | 97.000 | 0.2711 | 0.3254 | 0.4474 | 0.2711 | 0.0342 | 0.1684 | 0.0790 | 0.2553 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1800 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5680 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2444 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3440 |
| predicted_H | 0.8720 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0180 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0940 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3130 |
| predicted_R | 0.5200 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5290 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3833 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9340 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2040 | 0.1800 | 0.1937 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0280 | 0.0170 | 0.0233 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5190 | 3.5680 | 3.5401 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2710 | 0.2444 | 0.2596 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2780 | 0.3440 | 0.3064 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9540 | 0.8720 | 0.9187 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0180 | 0.0180 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1200 | 0.0940 | 0.1088 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3240 | 0.3130 | 0.3193 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5000 | 0.5200 | 0.5086 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5930 | 0.5290 | 0.5655 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4470 | 0.3833 | 0.4196 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8980 | 0.9340 | 0.9135 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 365 |
| Season rows before report date | 365 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 108 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.271 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.2 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF-3B |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 677649 |
| playerID | 677649 |
| playerName | Ezequiel Duran |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | TEX |
| teamID | 28 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.337 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.307 |
| sl_xba | 0.253 |
| sl_xslg | 0.383 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 26.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.239 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.233 | 0.000 | -0.233 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.035 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.045 | 0.000 | -0.045 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.560 | 3.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.969 | 4.000 | -0.969 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.268 | 0.667 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.273 | 0.500 | 0.393 | 0.167 |
| predicted_BB | 0.345 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.337 | 1.000 | 0.663 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.007 | 0.000 | -0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.220 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.085 | 2.000 | 0.915 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.260 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.113 | 0.000 | 0.887 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.376 | 0.750 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.339 | 0.600 | 0.411 | 0.150 |
| predicted_R | 0.434 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.450 | 0.000 | 0.550 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.830 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.448 | 1.000 | 2.552 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.517 | 1.667 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.440 | 0.500 | 1.226 | 1.167 |
| predicted_SO | 0.912 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.962 | 1.000 | 0.038 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 8 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.8300 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.1700, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.5600 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.5600, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2680 -> 0.2883 (boost 0.0203, better) | predicted_AB: 4.5600 -> 4.2104 (deboost -0.3496, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3773 -> 0.3451 (deboost -0.0322, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 4.2104 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.7896, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3539 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3539, worse) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.053 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4675 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4675, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5235 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.3235, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 5.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -2.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2000 -> 0.5235 (boost 0.3235, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "607043",
"player_name": "Brandon Nimmo",
"position": "RF",
"team": "TEX",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.239,
"predicted_3B": 0.035,
"predicted_AB": 4.56,
"predicted_AVG": 0.268,
"predicted_BB": 0.345,
"predicted_H": 1.22,
"predicted_HR": 0.26,
"predicted_OBP": 0.376,
"predicted_R": 0.434,
"predicted_RBI": 0.83,
"predicted_SLG": 0.517,
"predicted_SO": 0.912
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2057,
"predicted_3B": 0.0289,
"predicted_AB": 4.2104,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2883,
"predicted_BB": 0.3524,
"predicted_H": 1.2036,
"predicted_HBP": 0.031,
"predicted_HR": 0.2371,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3773,
"predicted_R": 0.4552,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7508,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5247,
"predicted_SO": 0.8917
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.239,
"after": 0.2057,
"delta": -0.0333,
"percent_delta": -0.1393,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.035,
"after": 0.0289,
"delta": -0.0061,
"percent_delta": -0.1743,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.56,
"after": 4.2104,
"delta": -0.3496,
"percent_delta": -0.0767,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.268,
"after": 0.2883,
"delta": 0.0203,
"percent_delta": 0.0757,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 0.3524,
"delta": 0.0074,
"percent_delta": 0.0214,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.22,
"after": 1.2036,
"delta": -0.0164,
"percent_delta": -0.0134,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.26,
"after": 0.2371,
"delta": -0.0229,
"percent_delta": -0.0881,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.376,
"after": 0.3773,
"delta": 0.0013,
"percent_delta": 0.0035,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.434,
"after": 0.4552,
"delta": 0.0212,
"percent_delta": 0.0488,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.83,
"after": 0.7508,
"delta": -0.0792,
"percent_delta": -0.0954,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.517,
"after": 0.5247,
"delta": 0.0077,
"percent_delta": 0.0149,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.912,
"after": 0.8917,
"delta": -0.0203,
"percent_delta": -0.0223,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.268,
"after": 0.2883,
"delta": 0.0203,
"percent_delta": 0.0757,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.56,
"after": 4.2104,
"delta": -0.3496,
"percent_delta": -0.0767,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 113
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2057,
"predicted_3B": 0.0289,
"predicted_AB": 4.2104,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2901,
"predicted_BB": 0.3539,
"predicted_H": 1.2213,
"predicted_HBP": 0.031,
"predicted_HR": 0.2398,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3451,
"predicted_R": 0.4675,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7711,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5235,
"predicted_SO": 0.8879
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2057,
"after": 0.2057,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0289,
"after": 0.0289,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2104,
"after": 4.2104,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2883,
"after": 0.2901,
"delta": 0.0018,
"percent_delta": 0.0062,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3524,
"after": 0.3539,
"delta": 0.0015,
"percent_delta": 0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.2036,
"after": 1.2213,
"delta": 0.0177,
"percent_delta": 0.0147,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.031,
"after": 0.031,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2371,
"after": 0.2398,
"delta": 0.0027,
"percent_delta": 0.0114,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3773,
"after": 0.3451,
"delta": -0.0322,
"percent_delta": -0.0853,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4552,
"after": 0.4675,
"delta": 0.0123,
"percent_delta": 0.027,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7508,
"after": 0.7711,
"delta": 0.0203,
"percent_delta": 0.027,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5247,
"after": 0.5235,
"delta": -0.0012,
"percent_delta": -0.0023,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8917,
"after": 0.8879,
"delta": -0.0038,
"percent_delta": -0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3773,
"after": 0.3451,
"delta": -0.0322,
"percent_delta": -0.0853,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.053",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2057,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2057,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0289,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0289,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2104,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.7896,
"percent_delta": 0.1875,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3539,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3539,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.2213,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.2213,
"percent_delta": -0.1812,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.031,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.031,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2398,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2398,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7711,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2289,
"percent_delta": 0.2968,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8879,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1121,
"percent_delta": 0.1263,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2104,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.7896,
"percent_delta": 0.1875,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3539,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3539,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4675,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4675,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4675,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4675,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2901,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.0901,
"percent_delta": -0.3106,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3451,
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"delta": -0.1451,
"percent_delta": -0.4205,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5235,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.3235,
"percent_delta": -0.618,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 3.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"percent_delta": -0.4,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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},
{
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"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 3.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -0.4,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2901,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3451,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 3.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5235,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.3451,
"delta": 0.1451,
"percent_delta": 0.7256,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.5235,
"delta": 0.3235,
"percent_delta": 1.6174,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.3235,
"percent_delta": 1.6174,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.239,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.239,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": -0.035,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.56,
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"delta": -1.56,
"percent_delta": -0.3421,
"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.2901,
"delta": 0.0221,
"percent_delta": 0.0825,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.345,
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"delta": 0.655,
"percent_delta": 1.8986,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.22,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.78,
"percent_delta": 0.6393,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": 0.74,
"percent_delta": 2.8462,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"delta": -0.0309,
"percent_delta": -0.0822,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.434,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.566,
"percent_delta": 1.3041,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.83,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.17,
"percent_delta": 2.6145,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.517,
"after": 0.5235,
"delta": 0.0065,
"percent_delta": 0.0126,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.912,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.088,
"percent_delta": 0.0965,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 8,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 7,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.17,
"percent_delta": 2.6145,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 4.56,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.56,
"percent_delta": -0.3421,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.239 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.035 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.560 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.268 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.345 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.220 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.260 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.376 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.434 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.830 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.517 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.912 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.206 | -0.033 |
| predicted_3B | 0.029 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 4.210 | -0.350 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.288 | 0.020 |
| predicted_BB | 0.352 | 0.007 |
| predicted_H | 1.204 | -0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.031 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.237 | -0.023 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.377 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.455 | 0.021 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.751 | -0.079 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.525 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.892 | -0.020 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.206 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.210 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.290 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.354 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.221 | 0.018 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.031 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.240 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.345 | -0.032 |
| predicted_R | 0.468 | 0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.771 | 0.020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.523 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.888 | -0.004 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.053
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.206 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.029 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.790 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | -0.090 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.354 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.221 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.240 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.200 | -0.145 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.468 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.229 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.200 | -0.323 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.112 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -2.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.3889 | 0.4500 | 0.7222 | 0.3889 | 0.1111 | 0.3333 | 0.1111 | 0.2222 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 14.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 0.3784 | 0.4390 | 0.6486 | 0.3784 | 0.0811 | 0.2162 | 0.1081 | 0.2162 |
| season | 0.60 | 113 | - | 431.000 | 119.000 | 27.000 | 4.000 | 13.000 | 47.000 | 49.000 | 39.000 | 103.000 | 0.2761 | 0.3431 | 0.4478 | 0.2761 | 0.0302 | 0.1090 | 0.0905 | 0.2390 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1620 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0210 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7520 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3149 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3620 |
| predicted_H | 1.1820 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0310 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2070 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3790 |
| predicted_R | 0.4830 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6470 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5349 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8650 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2390 | 0.1620 | 0.2057 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0350 | 0.0210 | 0.0289 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.5600 | 3.7520 | 4.2104 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2680 | 0.3149 | 0.2883 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3450 | 0.3620 | 0.3524 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.2200 | 1.1820 | 1.2036 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0310 | 0.0310 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2600 | 0.2070 | 0.2371 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3760 | 0.3790 | 0.3773 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4340 | 0.4830 | 0.4552 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.8300 | 0.6470 | 0.7508 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5170 | 0.5349 | 0.5247 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9120 | 0.8650 | 0.8917 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 424 |
| Season rows before report date | 424 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 113 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 3 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.276 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 607043 |
| playerID | 607043 |
| playerName | Brandon Nimmo |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | TEX |
| teamID | 28 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.343 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.372 |
| sl_xba | 0.292 |
| sl_xslg | 0.504 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 51.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.104 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.118 | 0.000 | -0.118 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.031 | 0.000 | -0.031 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.925 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.312 | 1.000 | 0.688 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.256 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.358 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.421 | 0.000 | 0.579 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.370 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.847 | 0.000 | 0.153 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.234 | 0.000 | -0.234 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.277 | 0.400 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.344 | 0.000 | 0.056 | 0.400 |
| predicted_R | 0.453 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.517 | 0.000 | 0.483 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.300 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.483 | 0.000 | -0.483 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.463 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.522 | 0.000 | -0.272 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.774 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.882 | 0.000 | -0.882 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.9250 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0750, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.7740 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7740, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.3700 -> 0.4828 (boost 0.1128, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2390 -> 0.2317 (deboost -0.0073, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4620 -> 0.3947 (deboost -0.0673, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.4899 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5101, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3599 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3599, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.167 HR/AB=0.061 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4498 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4498, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.1692 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1638, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3947 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0617, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.3947 (boost 0.0617, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1692 (deboost -0.1638, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "592626",
"player_name": "Joc Pederson",
"position": "DH",
"team": "TEX",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.019,
"predicted_AB": 2.925,
"predicted_AVG": 0.239,
"predicted_BB": 0.358,
"predicted_H": 0.37,
"predicted_HR": 0.16,
"predicted_OBP": 0.277,
"predicted_R": 0.453,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3,
"predicted_SLG": 0.463,
"predicted_SO": 0.774
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0882,
"predicted_3B": 0.0156,
"predicted_AB": 2.8951,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2317,
"predicted_BB": 0.3388,
"predicted_H": 0.4828,
"predicted_HBP": 0.017,
"predicted_HR": 0.1758,
"predicted_OBP": 0.287,
"predicted_R": 0.438,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3504,
"predicted_SLG": 0.462,
"predicted_SO": 0.7578
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.104,
"after": 0.0882,
"delta": -0.0158,
"percent_delta": -0.1519,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0156,
"delta": -0.0034,
"percent_delta": -0.1789,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.925,
"after": 2.8951,
"delta": -0.0299,
"percent_delta": -0.0102,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.239,
"after": 0.2317,
"delta": -0.0073,
"percent_delta": -0.0305,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.358,
"after": 0.3388,
"delta": -0.0192,
"percent_delta": -0.0536,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.4828,
"delta": 0.1128,
"percent_delta": 0.3049,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.1758,
"delta": 0.0158,
"percent_delta": 0.0988,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.277,
"after": 0.287,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.0361,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.453,
"after": 0.438,
"delta": -0.015,
"percent_delta": -0.0331,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 0.3504,
"delta": 0.0504,
"percent_delta": 0.168,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.463,
"after": 0.462,
"delta": -0.001,
"percent_delta": -0.0022,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.774,
"after": 0.7578,
"delta": -0.0162,
"percent_delta": -0.0209,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 0.4828,
"delta": 0.1128,
"percent_delta": 0.3049,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.239,
"after": 0.2317,
"delta": -0.0073,
"percent_delta": -0.0305,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 106
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0882,
"predicted_3B": 0.0156,
"predicted_AB": 2.8951,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1692,
"predicted_BB": 0.3403,
"predicted_H": 0.4899,
"predicted_HBP": 0.017,
"predicted_HR": 0.1778,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2566,
"predicted_R": 0.4498,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3599,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3947,
"predicted_SO": 0.7545
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0882,
"after": 0.0882,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0156,
"after": 0.0156,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.8951,
"after": 2.8951,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2317,
"after": 0.1692,
"delta": -0.0625,
"percent_delta": -0.2697,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3388,
"after": 0.3403,
"delta": 0.0015,
"percent_delta": 0.0044,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.4828,
"after": 0.4899,
"delta": 0.0071,
"percent_delta": 0.0147,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.017,
"after": 0.017,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1758,
"after": 0.1778,
"delta": 0.002,
"percent_delta": 0.0114,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.287,
"after": 0.2566,
"delta": -0.0304,
"percent_delta": -0.1059,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.438,
"after": 0.4498,
"delta": 0.0118,
"percent_delta": 0.0269,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3504,
"after": 0.3599,
"delta": 0.0095,
"percent_delta": 0.0271,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.462,
"after": 0.3947,
"delta": -0.0673,
"percent_delta": -0.1457,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7578,
"after": 0.7545,
"delta": -0.0033,
"percent_delta": -0.0044,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.462,
"after": 0.3947,
"delta": -0.0673,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.167 HR/AB=0.061",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0882,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0882,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0156,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0156,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.8951,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.1049,
"percent_delta": 0.0362,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3403,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3403,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.4899,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5101,
"percent_delta": 1.0412,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.017,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.017,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1778,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1778,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3599,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3599,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7545,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2455,
"percent_delta": 0.3254,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.4899,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5101,
"percent_delta": 1.0412,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3599,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3599,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"delta": -0.4498,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.333,
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},
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 0.0,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1692,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2566,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3947,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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"material": false
},
{
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2566,
"delta": -0.0764,
"percent_delta": -0.2295,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"after": 0.3947,
"delta": 0.0617,
"percent_delta": 0.1852,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
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"delta": -0.1638,
"percent_delta": -0.4918,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.104,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.019,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.925,
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"delta": 1.075,
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.642,
"percent_delta": 1.7933,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.37,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.63,
"percent_delta": 1.7027,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.16,
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"delta": -0.16,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.277,
"after": 0.2566,
"delta": -0.0204,
"percent_delta": -0.0736,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.453,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.547,
"percent_delta": 1.2075,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.463,
"after": 0.3947,
"delta": -0.0683,
"percent_delta": -0.1475,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.774,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.774,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 2.925,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.075,
"percent_delta": 0.3675,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.774,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.774,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.104 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.925 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.358 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.370 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.277 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.453 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.300 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.463 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.774 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.088 | -0.016 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 2.895 | -0.030 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.339 | -0.019 |
| predicted_H | 0.483 | 0.113 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.176 | 0.016 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.287 | 0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.438 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.350 | 0.050 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.462 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.758 | -0.016 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.088 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.895 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.169 | -0.062 |
| predicted_BB | 0.340 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.490 | 0.007 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.178 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.257 | -0.030 |
| predicted_R | 0.450 | 0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.360 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.395 | -0.067 |
| predicted_SO | 0.754 | -0.003 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.167 HR/AB=0.061
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.088 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.105 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.164 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.340 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.510 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.178 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.076 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.450 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.360 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.062 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.246 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 13.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.1538 | 0.2143 | 0.3846 | 0.1538 | 0.0769 | 0.1538 | 0.0769 | 0.2308 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 25.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 0.2000 | 0.2857 | 0.4400 | 0.2000 | 0.0800 | 0.1600 | 0.1200 | 0.2800 |
| season | 0.60 | 106 | - | 310.000 | 77.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 21.000 | 44.000 | 48.000 | 38.000 | 82.000 | 0.2484 | 0.3333 | 0.5000 | 0.2484 | 0.0677 | 0.1419 | 0.1226 | 0.2645 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0670 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0110 |
| predicted_AB | 2.8550 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2220 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3130 |
| predicted_H | 0.6340 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0170 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1970 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3004 |
| predicted_R | 0.4180 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4180 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4606 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7360 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1040 | 0.0670 | 0.0882 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0190 | 0.0110 | 0.0156 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.9250 | 2.8550 | 2.8951 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2390 | 0.2220 | 0.2317 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3580 | 0.3130 | 0.3388 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.3700 | 0.6340 | 0.4828 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0170 | 0.0170 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1600 | 0.1970 | 0.1758 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2770 | 0.3004 | 0.2870 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4530 | 0.4180 | 0.4380 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3000 | 0.4180 | 0.3504 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4630 | 0.4606 | 0.4620 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7740 | 0.7360 | 0.7578 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 321 |
| Season rows before report date | 321 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 106 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.248 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 592626 |
| note | Flied out for Cauley in the 7th. |
| playerID | 592626 |
| playerName | Joc Pederson |
| pos | DH |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | TEX |
| teamID | 28 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.36 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.35 |
| sl_xba | 0.254 |
| sl_xslg | 0.456 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 49.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.209 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.197 | 0.000 | 0.803 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.039 | 0.000 | -0.039 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.925 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.133 | 2.000 | 0.867 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.172 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.282 | 0.000 | 0.118 | 0.400 |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.275 | 3.000 | -0.275 | -3.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.017 | 0.000 | -0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.600 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.167 | 0.000 | 0.833 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.215 | 0.000 | -0.215 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.357 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.332 | 0.600 | 0.068 | -0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.597 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.639 | 1.000 | 0.361 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.290 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.545 | 0.000 | -0.545 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.354 | 0.600 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.505 | 0.000 | 0.095 | 0.600 |
| predicted_SO | 0.985 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.966 | 2.000 | 0.034 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.6000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.4000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.3280 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3280, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.3280 -> 0.4395 (boost 0.1115, better) | predicted_AB: 3.9250 -> 3.7632 (deboost -0.1618, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3524 -> 0.2661 (deboost -0.0863, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.6774 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3226, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4414 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4414, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.032 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6379 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3621, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.1800 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0700, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3451 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.0951, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3451 (boost 0.0951, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.1800 (deboost -0.0700, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "694671",
"player_name": "Wyatt Langford",
"position": "LF",
"team": "TEX",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.209,
"predicted_3B": 0.03,
"predicted_AB": 3.925,
"predicted_AVG": 0.172,
"predicted_BB": 0.328,
"predicted_H": 0.6,
"predicted_HR": 0.12,
"predicted_OBP": 0.357,
"predicted_R": 0.597,
"predicted_RBI": 0.29,
"predicted_SLG": 0.354,
"predicted_SO": 0.985
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2001,
"predicted_3B": 0.0241,
"predicted_AB": 3.7632,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1899,
"predicted_BB": 0.4395,
"predicted_H": 0.6676,
"predicted_HBP": 0.164,
"predicted_HR": 0.123,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3524,
"predicted_R": 0.6211,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2896,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3666,
"predicted_SO": 0.9812
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.209,
"after": 0.2001,
"delta": -0.0089,
"percent_delta": -0.0426,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 0.0241,
"delta": -0.0059,
"percent_delta": -0.1967,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.925,
"after": 3.7632,
"delta": -0.1618,
"percent_delta": -0.0412,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.172,
"after": 0.1899,
"delta": 0.0179,
"percent_delta": 0.1041,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.4395,
"delta": 0.1115,
"percent_delta": 0.3399,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 0.6676,
"delta": 0.0676,
"percent_delta": 0.1127,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.123,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.357,
"after": 0.3524,
"delta": -0.0046,
"percent_delta": -0.0129,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.597,
"after": 0.6211,
"delta": 0.0241,
"percent_delta": 0.0404,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.2896,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0014,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.354,
"after": 0.3666,
"delta": 0.0126,
"percent_delta": 0.0356,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.985,
"after": 0.9812,
"delta": -0.0038,
"percent_delta": -0.0039,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.4395,
"delta": 0.1115,
"percent_delta": 0.3399,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.925,
"after": 3.7632,
"delta": -0.1618,
"percent_delta": -0.0412,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 67
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2001,
"predicted_3B": 0.0241,
"predicted_AB": 3.7632,
"predicted_AVG": 0.18,
"predicted_BB": 0.4414,
"predicted_H": 0.6774,
"predicted_HBP": 0.164,
"predicted_HR": 0.1244,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2661,
"predicted_R": 0.6379,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2974,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3451,
"predicted_SO": 0.977
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2001,
"after": 0.2001,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0241,
"after": 0.0241,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7632,
"after": 3.7632,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1899,
"after": 0.18,
"delta": -0.0099,
"percent_delta": -0.0521,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4395,
"after": 0.4414,
"delta": 0.0019,
"percent_delta": 0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6676,
"after": 0.6774,
"delta": 0.0098,
"percent_delta": 0.0147,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.164,
"after": 0.164,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.123,
"after": 0.1244,
"delta": 0.0014,
"percent_delta": 0.0114,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3524,
"after": 0.2661,
"delta": -0.0863,
"percent_delta": -0.2449,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6211,
"after": 0.6379,
"delta": 0.0168,
"percent_delta": 0.027,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2896,
"after": 0.2974,
"delta": 0.0078,
"percent_delta": 0.0269,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3666,
"after": 0.3451,
"delta": -0.0215,
"percent_delta": -0.0586,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9812,
"after": 0.977,
"delta": -0.0042,
"percent_delta": -0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3524,
"after": 0.2661,
"delta": -0.0863,
"percent_delta": -0.2449,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.032",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2001,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2001,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0241,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0241,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7632,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.2368,
"percent_delta": 0.0629,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4414,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4414,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6774,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3226,
"percent_delta": 0.4762,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.164,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.164,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1244,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1244,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2974,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2974,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.977,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.023,
"percent_delta": 0.0235,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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{
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{
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],
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
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"stats": {
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},
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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],
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}
},
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}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
{
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"after": 0.3451,
"delta": -0.0089,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.209 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.925 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.172 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.600 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.357 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.597 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.290 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.354 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.985 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | -0.009 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 3.763 | -0.162 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.190 | 0.018 |
| predicted_BB | 0.440 | 0.111 |
| predicted_H | 0.668 | 0.068 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.164 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.123 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.352 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.621 | 0.024 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.290 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.367 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.981 | -0.004 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.763 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.180 | -0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.441 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.677 | 0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.164 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.124 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.266 | -0.086 |
| predicted_R | 0.638 | 0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.297 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.345 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SO | 0.977 | -0.004 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.032
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.200 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.024 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.237 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.070 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.441 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.323 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.124 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.016 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.362 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.297 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.095 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.023 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 13.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 0.1538 | 0.4500 | 0.2308 | 0.1538 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.3846 | 0.3077 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 8.000 | 11.000 | 0.1250 | 0.3333 | 0.2500 | 0.1250 | 0.0312 | 0.0312 | 0.2500 | 0.3438 |
| season | 0.60 | 67 | - | 263.000 | 68.000 | 14.000 | 2.000 | 13.000 | 31.000 | 40.000 | 22.000 | 66.000 | 0.2586 | 0.3229 | 0.4753 | 0.2586 | 0.0494 | 0.1179 | 0.0837 | 0.2510 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1880 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5420 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2144 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5920 |
| predicted_H | 0.7600 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1640 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1270 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3462 |
| predicted_R | 0.6540 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2890 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3839 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9760 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2090 | 0.1880 | 0.2001 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0300 | 0.0160 | 0.0241 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9250 | 3.5420 | 3.7632 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1720 | 0.2144 | 0.1899 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3280 | 0.5920 | 0.4395 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6000 | 0.7600 | 0.6676 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1640 | 0.1640 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1200 | 0.1270 | 0.1230 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3570 | 0.3462 | 0.3524 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5970 | 0.6540 | 0.6211 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2900 | 0.2890 | 0.2896 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3540 | 0.3839 | 0.3666 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9850 | 0.9760 | 0.9812 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 233 |
| Season rows before report date | 233 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 67 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.259 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 3 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF-LF |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 694671 |
| playerID | 694671 |
| playerName | Wyatt Langford |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | TEX |
| teamID | 28 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.345 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.305 |
| sl_xba | 0.235 |
| sl_xslg | 0.401 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 19.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.091 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.105 | 0.000 | -0.105 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 | -0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.828 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.108 | 2.000 | -0.108 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.178 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.202 | 0.000 | -0.202 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.404 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.480 | 0.000 | 0.520 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.017 | 0.000 | -0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.230 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.628 | 0.000 | -0.628 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.108 | 0.000 | -0.108 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.223 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.317 | 0.000 | -0.067 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.384 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.449 | 0.000 | 0.551 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.210 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.341 | 0.000 | -0.341 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.229 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.353 | 0.000 | -0.353 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.798 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.858 | 1.000 | -0.858 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_R: 0.3840 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6160, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.7980 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7980, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.2300 -> 0.3061 (boost 0.0761, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.1780 -> 0.1646 (deboost -0.0134, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.1646 -> 0.1105 (deboost -0.0541, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_AB: 2.8118 -> 3.0000 (boost 0.1882, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3771 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3771, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.110 HR/AB=0.014 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 0.3673 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3673, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1105 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.2225, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1105 (deboost -0.2225, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "694497",
"player_name": "Evan Carter",
"position": "CF",
"team": "TEX",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.091,
"predicted_3B": 0.02,
"predicted_AB": 2.828,
"predicted_AVG": 0.178,
"predicted_BB": 0.404,
"predicted_H": 0.23,
"predicted_HR": 0.03,
"predicted_OBP": 0.223,
"predicted_R": 0.384,
"predicted_RBI": 0.21,
"predicted_SLG": 0.229,
"predicted_SO": 0.798
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0778,
"predicted_3B": 0.0166,
"predicted_AB": 2.8118,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1646,
"predicted_BB": 0.3755,
"predicted_H": 0.3061,
"predicted_HBP": 0.024,
"predicted_HR": 0.0394,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2311,
"predicted_R": 0.3576,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2487,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2306,
"predicted_SO": 0.8456
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.091,
"after": 0.0778,
"delta": -0.0132,
"percent_delta": -0.1451,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.0166,
"delta": -0.0034,
"percent_delta": -0.17,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.828,
"after": 2.8118,
"delta": -0.0162,
"percent_delta": -0.0057,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.178,
"after": 0.1646,
"delta": -0.0134,
"percent_delta": -0.0753,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.404,
"after": 0.3755,
"delta": -0.0285,
"percent_delta": -0.0705,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 0.3061,
"delta": 0.0761,
"percent_delta": 0.3309,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 0.0394,
"delta": 0.0094,
"percent_delta": 0.3133,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.223,
"after": 0.2311,
"delta": 0.0081,
"percent_delta": 0.0363,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.384,
"after": 0.3576,
"delta": -0.0264,
"percent_delta": -0.0688,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.2487,
"delta": 0.0387,
"percent_delta": 0.1843,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.229,
"after": 0.2306,
"delta": 0.0016,
"percent_delta": 0.007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.798,
"after": 0.8456,
"delta": 0.0476,
"percent_delta": 0.0596,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 0.3061,
"delta": 0.0761,
"percent_delta": 0.3309,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.178,
"after": 0.1646,
"delta": -0.0134,
"percent_delta": -0.0753,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 99
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0778,
"predicted_3B": 0.0166,
"predicted_AB": 2.8118,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1105,
"predicted_BB": 0.3771,
"predicted_H": 0.3106,
"predicted_HBP": 0.024,
"predicted_HR": 0.0398,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2157,
"predicted_R": 0.3673,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2554,
"predicted_SLG": 0.1924,
"predicted_SO": 0.842
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0778,
"after": 0.0778,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0166,
"after": 0.0166,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.8118,
"after": 2.8118,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1646,
"after": 0.1105,
"delta": -0.0541,
"percent_delta": -0.3287,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3755,
"after": 0.3771,
"delta": 0.0016,
"percent_delta": 0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.3061,
"after": 0.3106,
"delta": 0.0045,
"percent_delta": 0.0147,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.024,
"after": 0.024,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0394,
"after": 0.0398,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.0102,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2311,
"after": 0.2157,
"delta": -0.0154,
"percent_delta": -0.0666,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3576,
"after": 0.3673,
"delta": 0.0097,
"percent_delta": 0.0271,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2487,
"after": 0.2554,
"delta": 0.0067,
"percent_delta": 0.0269,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2306,
"after": 0.1924,
"delta": -0.0382,
"percent_delta": -0.1657,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8456,
"after": 0.842,
"delta": -0.0036,
"percent_delta": -0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1646,
"after": 0.1105,
"delta": -0.0541,
"percent_delta": -0.3287,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.798,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.798,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.384,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.616,
"percent_delta": 1.6042,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.798,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.798,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.091 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.828 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.178 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.404 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.230 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.223 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.384 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.210 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.229 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.798 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.078 | -0.013 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 2.812 | -0.016 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.165 | -0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.376 | -0.029 |
| predicted_H | 0.306 | 0.076 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.024 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.039 | 0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.231 | 0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.358 | -0.026 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.249 | 0.039 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.231 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.846 | 0.048 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.078 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.812 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.111 | -0.054 |
| predicted_BB | 0.377 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.311 | 0.005 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.216 | -0.015 |
| predicted_R | 0.367 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.255 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.192 | -0.038 |
| predicted_SO | 0.842 | -0.004 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.110 HR/AB=0.014
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.078 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.017 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.188 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.223 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.377 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.689 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.040 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.117 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.367 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.255 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.141 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.158 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 11.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.0000 | 0.0833 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0909 | 0.0909 | 0.5454 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 28.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 0.1071 | 0.1935 | 0.1071 | 0.1071 | 0.0000 | 0.1071 | 0.1071 | 0.2857 |
| season | 0.60 | 99 | - | 280.000 | 54.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 31.000 | 38.000 | 40.000 | 79.000 | 0.1929 | 0.3015 | 0.3250 | 0.1929 | 0.0286 | 0.1107 | 0.1429 | 0.2821 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0600 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 |
| predicted_AB | 2.7900 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1465 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3370 |
| predicted_H | 0.4090 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0240 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0520 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2421 |
| predicted_R | 0.3220 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2327 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9100 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0910 | 0.0600 | 0.0778 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0200 | 0.0120 | 0.0166 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.8280 | 2.7900 | 2.8118 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1780 | 0.1465 | 0.1646 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4040 | 0.3370 | 0.3755 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.2300 | 0.4090 | 0.3061 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0240 | 0.0240 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0300 | 0.0520 | 0.0394 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2230 | 0.2421 | 0.2311 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3840 | 0.3220 | 0.3576 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2100 | 0.3010 | 0.2487 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2290 | 0.2327 | 0.2306 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7980 | 0.9100 | 0.8456 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 296 |
| Season rows before report date | 296 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 99 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.193 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH-CF |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 694497 |
| note | Flied out for Bride in the 7th. |
| playerID | 694497 |
| playerName | Evan Carter |
| pos | CF |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | TEX |
| teamID | 28 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.29 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.293 |
| sl_xba | 0.202 |
| sl_xslg | 0.328 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 40.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.149 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.163 | 0.000 | -0.163 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.860 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.771 | 5.000 | 0.229 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.238 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.241 | 0.200 | 0.259 | 0.300 |
| predicted_BB | 0.298 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.317 | 0.000 | -0.317 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.920 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.910 | 1.000 | 1.090 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.163 | 0.000 | -0.163 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.304 | 0.200 | 0.196 | 0.300 |
| predicted_R | 0.430 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.441 | 0.000 | 0.559 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.530 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.629 | 2.000 | 0.371 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.382 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.415 | 0.200 | 0.085 | 0.300 |
| predicted_SO | 1.070 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.107 | 1.000 | -1.107 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.9200 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0800, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.0700 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0700, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | predicted_OBP: 0.3050 -> 0.3100 (boost 0.0050, better) | predicted_AB: 3.8600 -> 3.6941 (deboost -0.1659, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5177 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4823, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3262 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3262, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.030 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4389 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4389, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2443 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0057, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3754 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1254, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3754 (boost 0.1254, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2443 (deboost -0.0057, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669394",
"player_name": "Jake Burger",
"position": "1B",
"team": "TEX",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.149,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.86,
"predicted_AVG": 0.238,
"predicted_BB": 0.298,
"predicted_H": 0.92,
"predicted_HR": 0.13,
"predicted_OBP": 0.305,
"predicted_R": 0.43,
"predicted_RBI": 0.53,
"predicted_SLG": 0.382,
"predicted_SO": 1.07
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1326,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.6941,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2407,
"predicted_BB": 0.3248,
"predicted_H": 0.8893,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.1157,
"predicted_OBP": 0.31,
"predicted_R": 0.4274,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5041,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3726,
"predicted_SO": 1.019
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.149,
"after": 0.1326,
"delta": -0.0164,
"percent_delta": -0.1101,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.86,
"after": 3.6941,
"delta": -0.1659,
"percent_delta": -0.043,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.238,
"after": 0.2407,
"delta": 0.0027,
"percent_delta": 0.0113,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.298,
"after": 0.3248,
"delta": 0.0268,
"percent_delta": 0.0899,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.92,
"after": 0.8893,
"delta": -0.0307,
"percent_delta": -0.0334,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.1157,
"delta": -0.0143,
"percent_delta": -0.11,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.31,
"delta": 0.005,
"percent_delta": 0.0164,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.43,
"after": 0.4274,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.53,
"after": 0.5041,
"delta": -0.0259,
"percent_delta": -0.0489,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.382,
"after": 0.3726,
"delta": -0.0094,
"percent_delta": -0.0246,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.07,
"after": 1.019,
"delta": -0.051,
"percent_delta": -0.0477,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.31,
"delta": 0.005,
"percent_delta": 0.0164,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.86,
"after": 3.6941,
"delta": -0.1659,
"percent_delta": -0.043,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 114
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1326,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.6941,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2443,
"predicted_BB": 0.3262,
"predicted_H": 0.9024,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.117,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3056,
"predicted_R": 0.4389,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5177,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3754,
"predicted_SO": 1.0146
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1326,
"after": 0.1326,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6941,
"after": 3.6941,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2407,
"after": 0.2443,
"delta": 0.0036,
"percent_delta": 0.015,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3248,
"after": 0.3262,
"delta": 0.0014,
"percent_delta": 0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
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"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.149,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.149,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.86,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.14,
"percent_delta": 0.0363,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.238,
"after": 0.2443,
"delta": 0.0063,
"percent_delta": 0.0265,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.298,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.298,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.92,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.08,
"percent_delta": 1.1739,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.13,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.3056,
"delta": 0.0006,
"percent_delta": 0.002,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.43,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.57,
"percent_delta": 1.3256,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.53,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.47,
"percent_delta": 0.8868,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.382,
"after": 0.3754,
"delta": -0.0066,
"percent_delta": -0.0173,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.07,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.07,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.92,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.08,
"percent_delta": 1.1739,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.07,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.07,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.149 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.860 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.238 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.298 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.920 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.430 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.530 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.382 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.070 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.133 | -0.016 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.694 | -0.166 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.325 | 0.027 |
| predicted_H | 0.889 | -0.031 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | -0.014 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.427 | -0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.504 | -0.026 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.373 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 1.019 | -0.051 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.133 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.694 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.326 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.902 | 0.013 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.117 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.306 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.439 | 0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.518 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.375 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 1.015 | -0.004 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.030
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.133 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.306 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.326 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.098 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.117 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.056 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.439 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.482 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.125 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.015 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3684 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.1250 | 0.1875 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 31.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 0.2581 | 0.3235 | 0.2903 | 0.2581 | 0.0000 | 0.0645 | 0.0968 | 0.2581 |
| season | 0.60 | 114 | - | 417.000 | 99.000 | 17.000 | 0.000 | 19.000 | 68.000 | 49.000 | 34.000 | 122.000 | 0.2374 | 0.2982 | 0.4149 | 0.2374 | 0.0456 | 0.1631 | 0.0815 | 0.2926 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1110 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4760 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2443 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3600 |
| predicted_H | 0.8490 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0160 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0970 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3166 |
| predicted_R | 0.4240 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4700 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3602 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9520 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1490 | 0.1110 | 0.1326 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8600 | 3.4760 | 3.6941 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2380 | 0.2443 | 0.2407 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2980 | 0.3600 | 0.3248 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9200 | 0.8490 | 0.8893 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0160 | 0.0160 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 | 0.0970 | 0.1157 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3050 | 0.3166 | 0.3100 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4300 | 0.4240 | 0.4274 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5300 | 0.4700 | 0.5041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3820 | 0.3602 | 0.3726 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0700 | 0.9520 | 1.0190 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 410 |
| Season rows before report date | 410 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 114 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.237 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.2 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669394 |
| playerID | 669394 |
| playerName | Jake Burger |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | TEX |
| teamID | 28 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.313 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.299 |
| sl_xba | 0.228 |
| sl_xslg | 0.393 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 47.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 34.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.920 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.205 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.250 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.100 | 0.000 | -0.100 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.180 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.500 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.900 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.205 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.286 | 0.000 | -0.036 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.160 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.900 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.030 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.100 | 0.000 | 1.900 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.245 | 1.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.400 | 0.000 | 0.600 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.840 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.700 | 0.000 | -0.700 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.0300 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.9700, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8400 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8400, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.1800 -> 0.3305 (boost 0.1505, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2035 -> 0.1147 (deboost -0.0888, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | predicted_SO: 0.8111 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1889, worse) | predicted_H: 0.3354 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3354, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.115 HR/AB=0.017 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 0.1776 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1776, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1147 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.2183, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1147 (deboost -0.2183, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "642851",
"player_name": "Austin Wynns",
"position": "C",
"team": "TEX",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.92,
"predicted_AVG": 0.205,
"predicted_BB": 0.16,
"predicted_H": 0.18,
"predicted_HR": 0.04,
"predicted_OBP": 0.205,
"predicted_R": 0.16,
"predicted_RBI": 0.03,
"predicted_SLG": 0.245,
"predicted_SO": 0.84
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0144,
"predicted_3B": 0.0011,
"predicted_AB": 2.9244,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2035,
"predicted_BB": 0.1541,
"predicted_H": 0.3305,
"predicted_HBP": 0.007,
"predicted_HR": 0.0488,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2183,
"predicted_R": 0.1729,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0701,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2585,
"predicted_SO": 0.8146
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0144,
"delta": 0.0144,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0011,
"delta": 0.0011,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.92,
"after": 2.9244,
"delta": 0.0044,
"percent_delta": 0.0015,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.205,
"after": 0.2035,
"delta": -0.0015,
"percent_delta": -0.0073,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.1541,
"delta": -0.0059,
"percent_delta": -0.0369,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.3305,
"delta": 0.1505,
"percent_delta": 0.8361,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.04,
"after": 0.0488,
"delta": 0.0088,
"percent_delta": 0.22,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.205,
"after": 0.2183,
"delta": 0.0133,
"percent_delta": 0.0649,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.1729,
"delta": 0.0129,
"percent_delta": 0.0806,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 0.0701,
"delta": 0.0401,
"percent_delta": 1.3367,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.2585,
"delta": 0.0135,
"percent_delta": 0.0551,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.84,
"after": 0.8146,
"delta": -0.0254,
"percent_delta": -0.0302,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.3305,
"delta": 0.1505,
"percent_delta": 0.8361,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
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"percent_delta": -0.522,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.171,
"delta": -0.162,
"percent_delta": -0.4866,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1147,
"delta": -0.2183,
"percent_delta": -0.6556,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.92,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.08,
"percent_delta": 0.3699,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.205,
"after": 0.1147,
"delta": -0.0903,
"percent_delta": -0.4405,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.16,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.82,
"percent_delta": 4.5556,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.04,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.96,
"percent_delta": 24.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.205,
"after": 0.1592,
"delta": -0.0458,
"percent_delta": -0.2234,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.84,
"percent_delta": 5.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.97,
"percent_delta": 65.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.171,
"delta": -0.074,
"percent_delta": -0.302,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.84,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.84,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.97,
"percent_delta": 65.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.84,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.84,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.920 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.205 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.180 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.205 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.245 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.840 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.014 | 0.014 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 2.924 | 0.004 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.203 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.154 | -0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.331 | 0.151 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.007 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.049 | 0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.218 | 0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.173 | 0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.070 | 0.040 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.259 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 0.815 | -0.025 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.924 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.115 | -0.089 |
| predicted_BB | 0.155 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.335 | 0.005 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.049 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.159 | -0.059 |
| predicted_R | 0.178 | 0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.072 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.171 | -0.087 |
| predicted_SO | 0.811 | -0.003 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.115 HR/AB=0.017
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.076 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.218 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.155 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.665 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.049 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.174 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.178 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.072 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.162 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.189 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 9.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.3333 | 0.3333 | 0.3333 | 0.3333 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1111 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 24.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 10.000 | 0.2083 | 0.2400 | 0.3333 | 0.2083 | 0.0417 | 0.0417 | 0.0417 | 0.4167 |
| season | 0.60 | 25 | - | 73.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 21.000 | 0.1233 | 0.1688 | 0.1644 | 0.1233 | 0.0137 | 0.0137 | 0.0548 | 0.2877 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0390 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0030 |
| predicted_AB | 2.9320 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1440 |
| predicted_H | 0.5890 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0070 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0640 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2411 |
| predicted_R | 0.1950 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1390 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2816 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7710 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0000 | 0.0390 | 0.0144 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0030 | 0.0011 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.9200 | 2.9320 | 2.9244 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2050 | 0.2008 | 0.2035 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1600 | 0.1440 | 0.1541 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.1800 | 0.5890 | 0.3305 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0070 | 0.0070 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0400 | 0.0640 | 0.0488 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2050 | 0.2411 | 0.2183 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.1600 | 0.1950 | 0.1729 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.0300 | 0.1390 | 0.0701 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2450 | 0.2816 | 0.2585 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8400 | 0.7710 | 0.8146 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 10 |
| Season rows before report date | 10 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 25 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.123 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH |
| gameID | 20260809_BAL@TEX |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 642851 |
| note | Popped out for Seager in the 9th. |
| playerID | 642851 |
| playerName | Austin Wynns |
| pos | C |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | TEX |
| teamID | 28 |
| game_date | 2026-08-09 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.155 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.24 |
| sl_xba | 0.201 |
| sl_xslg | 0.298 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 28.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 57.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.047 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.069 | 0.000 | -0.069 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.828 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.182 | 1.000 | 0.818 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.254 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.310 | 0.000 | -0.310 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.141 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.126 | 0.000 | -0.126 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.019 | 0.000 | -0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.260 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.987 | 0.000 | -0.987 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.025 | 0.000 | -0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.260 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.347 | 0.000 | -0.347 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.297 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.371 | 1.000 | -0.371 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.352 | 0.000 | -0.352 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.101 | 0.000 | -0.101 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.354 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.360 | 0.000 | -0.360 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.500 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.497 | 0.000 | 0.503 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.8280 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.1720, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.2970 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2970, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.2600 -> 0.4427 (boost 0.1827, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3540 -> 0.3483 (deboost -0.0057, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3483 -> 0.2377 (deboost -0.1106, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | predicted_SO: 0.5052 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4948, worse) | predicted_H: 0.4492 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4492, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.012 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 0.3185 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3185, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1592 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1738, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1592 (deboost -0.1738, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "670032",
"player_name": "Nicky Lopez",
"position": "2B",
"team": "TEX",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.047,
"predicted_3B": 0.016,
"predicted_AB": 2.828,
"predicted_AVG": 0.254,
"predicted_BB": 0.141,
"predicted_H": 0.26,
"predicted_HR": 0.04,
"predicted_OBP": 0.26,
"predicted_R": 0.297,
"predicted_RBI": 0.13,
"predicted_SLG": 0.354,
"predicted_SO": 0.5
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0449,
"predicted_3B": 0.0394,
"predicted_AB": 2.821,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2526,
"predicted_BB": 0.1238,
"predicted_H": 0.4427,
"predicted_HBP": 0.019,
"predicted_HR": 0.0322,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2678,
"predicted_R": 0.3101,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2142,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3483,
"predicted_SO": 0.5074
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.047,
"after": 0.0449,
"delta": -0.0021,
"percent_delta": -0.0447,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.0394,
"delta": 0.0234,
"percent_delta": 1.4625,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.828,
"after": 2.821,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.254,
"after": 0.2526,
"delta": -0.0014,
"percent_delta": -0.0055,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.1947,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2377,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1592,
"delta": -0.1738,
"percent_delta": -0.5218,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1947,
"delta": -0.1383,
"percent_delta": -0.4152,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2377,
"delta": -0.0953,
"percent_delta": -0.2861,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1592,
"delta": -0.1738,
"percent_delta": -0.5218,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.047,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.047,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.016,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.828,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.172,
"percent_delta": 0.4144,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.254,
"after": 0.1592,
"delta": -0.0948,
"percent_delta": -0.3732,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.141,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.141,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.26,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.26,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.04,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.04,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.26,
"after": 0.1947,
"delta": -0.0653,
"percent_delta": -0.2512,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.297,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.297,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.13,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.354,
"after": 0.2377,
"delta": -0.1163,
"percent_delta": -0.3285,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.828,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.172,
"percent_delta": 0.4144,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.297,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.297,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.047 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.828 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.254 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.141 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.260 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.260 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.297 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.354 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.500 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.045 | -0.002 |
| predicted_3B | 0.039 | 0.023 |
| predicted_AB | 2.821 | -0.007 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.253 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.124 | -0.017 |
| predicted_H | 0.443 | 0.183 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.019 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.032 | -0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.268 | 0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.310 | 0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.214 | 0.084 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.348 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.507 | 0.007 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.045 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.039 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.821 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.159 | -0.093 |
| predicted_BB | 0.124 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.449 | 0.007 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.195 | -0.073 |
| predicted_R | 0.319 | 0.008 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.220 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.238 | -0.111 |
| predicted_SO | 0.505 | -0.002 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.012
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.045 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.039 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.179 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.174 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.124 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.551 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.033 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.138 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.319 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.220 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.095 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.495 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 11.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.2727 | 0.2727 | 0.4545 | 0.2727 | 0.0000 | 0.1818 | 0.0000 | 0.0909 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 26.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 0.1538 | 0.1538 | 0.2308 | 0.1538 | 0.0000 | 0.0769 | 0.0000 | 0.2692 |
| season | 0.60 | 64 | - | 181.000 | 50.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 20.000 | 19.000 | 9.000 | 32.000 | 0.2762 | 0.3161 | 0.3204 | 0.2762 | 0.0055 | 0.1105 | 0.0497 | 0.1768 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0420 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0730 |
| predicted_AB | 2.8110 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2506 |
| predicted_BB | 0.0990 |
| predicted_H | 0.7050 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0190 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0210 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2791 |
| predicted_R | 0.3290 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3350 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3400 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5180 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0470 | 0.0420 | 0.0449 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 | 0.0730 | 0.0394 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.8280 | 2.8110 | 2.8210 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2540 | 0.2506 | 0.2526 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1410 | 0.0990 | 0.1238 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.2600 | 0.7050 | 0.4427 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0190 | 0.0190 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0400 | 0.0210 | 0.0322 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2600 | 0.2791 | 0.2678 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.2970 | 0.3290 | 0.3101 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1300 | 0.3350 | 0.2142 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3540 | 0.3400 | 0.3483 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5000 | 0.5180 | 0.5074 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 159 |
| Season rows before report date | 159 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 64 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.276 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 2 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | short |
| mlbID | 670032 |
| playerID | 670032 |
| playerName | Nicky Lopez |
| pos | 2B |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | TEX |
| teamID | 28 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 4.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.287 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.262 |
| sl_xba | 0.245 |
| sl_xslg | 0.294 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 26.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 0.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 22.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 84.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 2.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 18.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 2.000 | 2.000 | -2.000 | -2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| predicted_H | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_H | 5.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 4.100 | 4.100 | 4.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 4.100 | 4.100 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_SO | 5.000 | 5.000 | -1.000 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 4.3333 -> 4.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 4.3333 -> 4.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "674003",
"player_name": "Cody Bradford",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "TEX",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 5.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.3333,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 5.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.1,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.3333,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.0538,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.3333,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.0538,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.3333,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.0538,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.3333,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.0538,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 4.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 1 | 4.100 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 1.6154 | 0.0000 | 1.1539 | 0.4615 | 1.1539 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 1 | 4.100 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 1.6154 | 0.0000 | 1.1539 | 0.4615 | 1.1539 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 1 | 4.100 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 1.6154 | 0.0000 | 1.1539 | 0.4615 | 1.1539 | 0.0000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.6340 |
| predicted_ER | 1.8000 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.7389 |
| predicted_H | 4.3460 |
| predicted_HR | 0.5360 |
| predicted_IP | 4.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 4.2950 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3800 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 1.6340 | 0.4868 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 2.0000 | 1.8000 | 1.9404 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.7389 | 3.7389 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 5.0000 | 4.3460 | 4.8052 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.5360 | 0.8618 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 4.1000 | 4.1000 | 4.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 4.0000 | 4.2950 | 4.0879 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3800 | 1.3800 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 1 |
| Season rows before report date | 1 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 1 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 4.1 |
| H | 5 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 4 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 18 |
| Pitches | 70 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 2 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 20 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 5 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 5 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 4.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 70 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 5 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 50 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260805_SF@TEX |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 674003 |
| playerID | 674003 |
| playerName | Cody Bradford |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | TEX |
| teamID | 28 |
| game_date | 2026-08-05 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.311 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.277 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 23.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 46.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 84.042877143 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.79264 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.326 | 1.000 | -0.326 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.256 | 0.000 | -0.256 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.605 | 0.000 | -0.605 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 2.200 | 2.200 | 2.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.191 | 1.000 | 1.009 | 1.200 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.302 | 1.000 | -0.302 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 2.2000 (boost 0.8667, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 2.2000 (boost 0.8667, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "656641",
"player_name": "Jacob Latz",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "TEX",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.3333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 2.2,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 2.2,
"delta": 0.8667,
"percent_delta": 0.65,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 2.2,
"delta": 0.8667,
"percent_delta": 0.65,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 2.2,
"delta": 0.8667,
"percent_delta": 0.65,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 2.2,
"delta": 0.8667,
"percent_delta": 0.65,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 3.0000 | 1.5000 | 0.3333 | 1.0000 | 0.5000 | 1.1667 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 12.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 5.000 | 13.000 | 0.000 | 2.2500 | 1.1667 | 0.2500 | 0.7500 | 0.4167 | 1.0833 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 42 | 54.000 | 8.000 | 23.000 | 13.000 | 56.000 | 3.000 | 1.3333 | 0.6667 | 0.1482 | 0.4259 | 0.2407 | 1.0370 | 0.0556 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.5340 |
| predicted_ER | 0.4540 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.0633 |
| predicted_H | 1.1370 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0730 |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.4180 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2535 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.5340 | 0.2757 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.4540 | 0.2344 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.0633 | 3.0633 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 1.1370 | 0.5870 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0730 | 0.0377 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.4180 | 1.2158 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2535 | 1.2535 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 43 |
| Season rows before report date | 43 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 42 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 2.2 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 8 |
| Pitches | 31 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 1.83 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 24 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 15 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 1 |
| Pitching_decision | S |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 6 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 656641 |
| playerID | 656641 |
| playerName | Jacob Latz |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | TEX |
| teamID | 28 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 28.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.196 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.246 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 25.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 78.449819206 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.6349292 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | -1.000 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.400 | 0.000 | -0.400 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | -1.000 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.700 | 0.200 | 0.300 | 0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.600 | 0.000 | 1.400 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "681217",
"player_name": "Chase Silseth",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "TEX",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.200 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 3.8571 | 2.1429 | 0.4286 | 1.0714 | 1.0714 | 0.6429 | 0.2143 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.200 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 7.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 2.0769 | 1.8462 | 0.2308 | 1.0385 | 0.8077 | 0.6923 | 0.1154 |
| season | 0.20 | 52 | 44.100 | 14.000 | 39.000 | 27.000 | 51.000 | 4.000 | 2.8421 | 1.4887 | 0.3158 | 0.8797 | 0.6090 | 1.1504 | 0.0902 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.6970 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3950 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.5560 |
| predicted_H | 1.0040 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1530 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8330 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.7008 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.6970 | 0.3469 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3950 | 0.1966 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.5560 | 3.5560 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 1.0040 | 0.4996 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1530 | 0.0761 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 0.8330 | 1.4192 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.7008 | 1.7008 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 5 |
| Season rows before report date | 5 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 52 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 15 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.84 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 9 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 7 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 681217 |
| playerID | 681217 |
| playerName | Chase Silseth |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | TEX |
| teamID | 28 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.312 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.314 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 43.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 32.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.8 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 74.691538246 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.374437982 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.359 | 0.000 | -0.359 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.436 | 0.000 | -0.436 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 1.077 | 0.000 | -1.077 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.038 | 1.000 | -0.038 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.231 | 1.000 | -1.231 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "682608",
"player_name": "Peyton Gray",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "TEX",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 1.8000 | 1.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.8000 | 0.4000 | 0.8000 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.200 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 2.5312 | 1.1250 | 0.2812 | 0.9375 | 0.1875 | 0.9375 | 0.1875 |
| season | 0.20 | 39 | 46.100 | 17.000 | 42.000 | 14.000 | 48.000 | 5.000 | 3.3022 | 1.2086 | 0.3669 | 0.9065 | 0.3022 | 1.0360 | 0.1079 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3390 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3600 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.1031 |
| predicted_H | 0.9450 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1740 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9570 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2307 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3390 | 0.1701 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3600 | 0.1807 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.1031 | 3.1031 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.9450 | 0.4743 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1740 | 0.0873 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.9570 | 0.4803 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2307 | 1.2307 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 39 |
| Season rows before report date | 39 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 39 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 16 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.30 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 7 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 6 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | W |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 682608 |
| playerID | 682608 |
| playerName | Peyton Gray |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | TEX |
| teamID | 28 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.297 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.278 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 26.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.039304615 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.875772923 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Ryan Johnson |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.4251 |
| ESPN Rank | 795 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.1518 |
| Avg Velo | 87.2014 |
| Avg Spin | 2237.5268 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 4 |
| Pre ER | 6 |
| Pre H | 7 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 7.1053 |
| Season WHIP | 1.5987 |
| Role Avg IP | 4.5670 |
| Recent Avg IP | 4.4670 |
| Last Start IP | 4.2000 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAA",
"games": 126,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 76,
"win_pct": 0.3968,
"runs_scored": 519.0,
"runs_allowed": 612.0,
"run_differential": -93.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.7381,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.119,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.8571,
"offense_index": 0.9171,
"defense_index": 0.9247,
"current_streak": "L3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 3,
"losses": 7,
"win_pct": 0.3,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
"run_differential": -23.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2481
},
"opponent": {
"team": "TEX",
"games": 125,
"wins": 64,
"losses": 61,
"win_pct": 0.512,
"runs_scored": 524.0,
"runs_allowed": 550.0,
"run_differential": -26.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.208,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.192,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
"offense_index": 0.9333,
"defense_index": 1.0208,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": -8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0153
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.2328,
"offense_edge": -0.0829,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0667,
"defense_strength": -0.0753,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0208,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9911,
"run_prevention": 1.0085,
"strikeout": 0.9984
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "696270",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "696270",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 169.0,
"k_percent": 16.5,
"bb_percent": 10.8,
"woba": 0.375,
"xwoba": 0.362,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
"avg_best_speed": 75.4086,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8599,
"whiff_percent": 24.2,
"swing_percent": 46.4
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
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}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Samy Natera Jr. |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.6049 |
| ESPN Rank | 153 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.0769 |
| Season WHIP | 0.8462 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
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},
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},
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}{
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"OPS": 0,
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},
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}{
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}{
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},
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},
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"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.9,
"ER_per_IP": 0.15,
"H_per_IP": 0.6,
"BB_per_IP": 0.3,
"SO_per_IP": 1.65,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
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"totals": {
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"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 18.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 39.0,
"Pitches": 184.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.1,
"R": 0.1,
"H": 0.5,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 1.8,
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},
"rates": {
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"H_per_IP": 0.45455,
"BB_per_IP": 0.18182,
"SO_per_IP": 1.63636,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 21,
"totals": {
"IP": 26.0,
"ER": 6.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 13.0,
"BB": 9.0,
"SO": 40.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 100.0,
"Pitches": 446.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.2857,
"R": 0.2857,
"H": 0.619,
"BB": 0.4286,
"SO": 1.9048,
"HR": 0.0476,
"BF": 4.7619,
"Pitches": 21.2381
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.8462,
"ER_per_IP": 0.23077,
"H_per_IP": 0.5,
"BB_per_IP": 0.34615,
"SO_per_IP": 1.53846,
"HR_per_IP": 0.03846
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.406,
"predicted_H": 0.951,
"predicted_BB": 0.399,
"predicted_SO": 1.653,
"predicted_HR": 0.098,
"predicted_ERA": 2.8669,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.0597
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5571,
"form_weight": 0.4429,
"form_reliability": 0.5098,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 5.2,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5098,
"prior_weight": 0.4902
},
"applied_metrics": {
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"form": 1.1,
"final": 1.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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"final": 0.1798,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"form": 0.951,
"final": 0.9783,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"final": 0.1767,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"form": 1.653,
"final": 1.2892,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"form": 0.098,
"final": 0.0434,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
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"form": 2.8669,
"final": 2.8669,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.0597,
"final": 1.0597,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Ben Joyce |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.5320 |
| ESPN Rank | 319 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 2 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 0 |
| Season WHIP | 0.6667 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAA",
"games": 126,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 76,
"win_pct": 0.3968,
"runs_scored": 519.0,
"runs_allowed": 612.0,
"run_differential": -93.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.7381,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.119,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.8571,
"offense_index": 0.9171,
"defense_index": 0.9247,
"current_streak": "L3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 3,
"losses": 7,
"win_pct": 0.3,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
"run_differential": -23.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2481
},
"opponent": {
"team": "TEX",
"games": 125,
"wins": 64,
"losses": 61,
"win_pct": 0.512,
"runs_scored": 524.0,
"runs_allowed": 550.0,
"run_differential": -26.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.208,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.192,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
"offense_index": 0.9333,
"defense_index": 1.0208,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": -8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0153
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.2328,
"offense_edge": -0.0829,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0667,
"defense_strength": -0.0753,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0208,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9911,
"run_prevention": 1.0085,
"strikeout": 0.9984
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "690829",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "690829",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 0.0,
"k_percent": 28.6,
"bb_percent": 14.3,
"woba": 0.227,
"xwoba": 0.215,
"sweet_spot_percent": 25.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 25.0,
"avg_best_speed": 59.0256,
"avg_hyper_speed": 91.0935,
"whiff_percent": 25.0,
"swing_percent": 37.5
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.9957,
"command_and_miss": 0.1164,
"regression_edge": 0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": 2.5,
"barrel_edge": 1.5778,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.8143,
"whiff_edge": -0.0714,
"bb_edge": -1.35,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "690829",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.532,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9548,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0152,
"walk_factor": 1.0486,
"homer_factor": 0.8768,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "690829",
"espn_id": 4867388,
"player_name": "Ben Joyce",
"team": "LAA",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 319,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 319,
"gp_value": 3.0,
"gp_rank": 646,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 0.0,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 0.0,
"w_rank": 476,
"l_value": 0.0,
"l_rank": 530,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 1.0,
"hld_rank": 241,
"ip_value": 3.0,
"ip_rank": 710,
"h_value": 1.0,
"h_rank": 768,
"er_value": 0.0,
"er_rank": 764,
"hr_value": 0.0,
"hr_rank": 690,
"bb_value": 1.0,
"bb_rank": 716,
"k_value": 3.0,
"k_rank": 673,
"k_per_9_value": 9.0,
"k_per_9_rank": 25,
"whip_value": 0.6666,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.21,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9797,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9797,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0219,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9446,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0068,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "insufficient_data"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 0,
"H": 1,
"BB": 1,
"SO": 3,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 0.6666666666666666,
"K9": 9.0,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 3,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 3,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 3,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "690829",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 1.0
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 0.6,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.1071,
"prior_weight": 0.8929
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "690829",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 3,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 3,
"totals": {
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"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 10.0,
"Pitches": 46.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.3333,
"BB": 0.3333,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.3333,
"Pitches": 15.3333
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.6667,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.33333,
"BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
"SO_per_IP": 1.0,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 3,
"totals": {
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"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 0.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.3333,
"BB": 0.3333,
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"HR": 0.0,
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"Pitches": 15.3333
},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.33333,
"BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
"SO_per_IP": 1.0,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
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"totals": {
"IP": 3.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 10.0,
"Pitches": 46.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.3333,
"BB": 0.3333,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.3333,
"Pitches": 15.3333
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.6667,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.33333,
"BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
"SO_per_IP": 1.0,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.445,
"predicted_H": 0.904,
"predicted_BB": 0.357,
"predicted_SO": 0.963,
"predicted_HR": 0.133,
"predicted_ERA": 4.0063,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2616
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.7273,
"form_weight": 0.2727,
"form_reliability": 0.1071,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 0.6,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.1071,
"prior_weight": 0.8929
},
"applied_metrics": {
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"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.445,
"final": 0.8486,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.904,
"final": 0.9738,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.357,
"final": 1.5519,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.963,
"final": 0.2627,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.133,
"final": 0.0363,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.0063,
"final": 4.0063,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.2616,
"final": 1.2616,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | José Fermin |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0392 |
| ESPN Rank | 264 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 3.2308 |
| Season WHIP | 1.3077 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAA",
"games": 126,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 76,
"win_pct": 0.3968,
"runs_scored": 519.0,
"runs_allowed": 612.0,
"run_differential": -93.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.7381,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.119,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.8571,
"offense_index": 0.9171,
"defense_index": 0.9247,
"current_streak": "L3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 3,
"losses": 7,
"win_pct": 0.3,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
"run_differential": -23.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2481
},
"opponent": {
"team": "TEX",
"games": 125,
"wins": 64,
"losses": 61,
"win_pct": 0.512,
"runs_scored": 524.0,
"runs_allowed": 550.0,
"run_differential": -26.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.208,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.192,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
"offense_index": 0.9333,
"defense_index": 1.0208,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": -8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0153
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.2328,
"offense_edge": -0.0829,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0667,
"defense_strength": -0.0753,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0208,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9911,
"run_prevention": 1.0085,
"strikeout": 0.9984
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "820862",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "820862",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 132.0,
"k_percent": 27.1,
"bb_percent": 11.4,
"woba": 0.306,
"xwoba": 0.322,
"sweet_spot_percent": 29.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.9,
"avg_best_speed": 81.229,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.4701,
"whiff_percent": 31.8,
"swing_percent": 48.8
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.2855,
"command_and_miss": 0.505,
"regression_edge": -0.4571,
"xwoba_edge": -0.3143,
"barrel_edge": -0.4667,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.8857,
"whiff_edge": 0.9,
"bb_edge": -0.625,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "820862",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": -0.0392,
"sample_weight": 0.528,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0033,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0338,
"walk_factor": 1.0264,
"homer_factor": 1.0434,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.016,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "820862",
"espn_id": 5265417,
"player_name": "Jose Fermin",
"team": "LAA",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 264,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 264,
"gp_value": 36.0,
"gp_rank": 145,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 3.2307,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 3.0,
"w_rank": 206,
"l_value": 2.0,
"l_rank": 279,
"sv_value": 1.0,
"sv_rank": 115,
"hld_value": 5.0,
"hld_rank": 147,
"ip_value": 39.0,
"ip_rank": 324,
"h_value": 31.0,
"h_rank": 348,
"er_value": 14.0,
"er_rank": 366,
"hr_value": 5.0,
"hr_rank": 273,
"bb_value": 20.0,
"bb_rank": 230,
"k_value": 45.0,
"k_rank": 268,
"k_per_9_value": 10.384615,
"k_per_9_rank": 22,
"whip_value": 1.3076,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.38,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0017,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0017,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0139,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 1.0229,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0178,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 4,
"H": 12,
"BB": 4,
"SO": 15,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 3.272727272727273,
"WHIP": 1.4545454545454546,
"K9": 12.272727272727273,
"HR9": 1.6363636363636365,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 1,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "820862",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 7.8,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6094,
"prior_weight": 0.3906
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "820862",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 36,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
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"games": 5,
"totals": {
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"R": 4.0,
"H": 9.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 9.0,
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"BF": 30.0,
"Pitches": 121.0
},
"per_game": {
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"R": 0.8,
"H": 1.8,
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},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 0.66667,
"H_per_IP": 1.5,
"BB_per_IP": 0.5,
"SO_per_IP": 1.5,
"HR_per_IP": 0.33333
}
},
"last_10": {
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"totals": {
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"H": 12.0,
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"HR": 2.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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"R": 0.7,
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},
"rates": {
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"H_per_IP": 1.09091,
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"SO_per_IP": 1.36364,
"HR_per_IP": 0.18182
}
},
"season": {
"games": 36,
"totals": {
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"ER": 14.0,
"R": 17.0,
"H": 31.0,
"BB": 20.0,
"SO": 45.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 170.0,
"Pitches": 708.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.3889,
"R": 0.4722,
"H": 0.8611,
"BB": 0.5556,
"SO": 1.25,
"HR": 0.1389,
"BF": 4.7222,
"Pitches": 19.6667
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.3077,
"ER_per_IP": 0.35897,
"H_per_IP": 0.79487,
"BB_per_IP": 0.51282,
"SO_per_IP": 1.15385,
"HR_per_IP": 0.12821
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.544,
"predicted_H": 1.223,
"predicted_BB": 0.456,
"predicted_SO": 1.329,
"predicted_HR": 0.222,
"predicted_ERA": 4.4898,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.5387
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.515,
"form_weight": 0.485,
"form_reliability": 0.6094,
"form_shrinkage": {
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6094,
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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"final": 0.2638,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"final": 0.5931,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"form": 0.222,
"final": 0.1077,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.4898,
"final": 4.4898,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.5387,
"final": 1.5387,
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}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Luke Murphy |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.2405 |
| ESPN Rank | 539 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 4.9091 |
| Season WHIP | 1.6364 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAA",
"games": 126,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 76,
"win_pct": 0.3968,
"runs_scored": 519.0,
"runs_allowed": 612.0,
"run_differential": -93.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.7381,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.119,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.8571,
"offense_index": 0.9171,
"defense_index": 0.9247,
"current_streak": "L3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 3,
"losses": 7,
"win_pct": 0.3,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
"run_differential": -23.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2481
},
"opponent": {
"team": "TEX",
"games": 125,
"wins": 64,
"losses": 61,
"win_pct": 0.512,
"runs_scored": 524.0,
"runs_allowed": 550.0,
"run_differential": -26.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.208,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.192,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
"offense_index": 0.9333,
"defense_index": 1.0208,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": -8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0153
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": -0.0829,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0667,
"defense_strength": -0.0753,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0208,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9911,
"run_prevention": 1.0085,
"strikeout": 0.9984
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "684665",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "684665",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 0.0,
"k_percent": 30.8,
"bb_percent": 30.8,
"woba": 0.215,
"xwoba": 0.278,
"sweet_spot_percent": 40.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 20.0,
"avg_best_speed": 78.7251,
"avg_hyper_speed": 90.1118,
"whiff_percent": 30.0,
"swing_percent": 33.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.1467,
"command_and_miss": 0.2779,
"regression_edge": -1.8,
"xwoba_edge": 0.9429,
"barrel_edge": 1.5778,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.5,
"whiff_edge": 0.6429,
"bb_edge": -2.5,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "684665",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.2405,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9796,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0337,
"walk_factor": 1.09,
"homer_factor": 0.8855,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.063,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "684665",
"espn_id": 4424061,
"player_name": "Luke Murphy",
"team": "LAA",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 539,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 539,
"gp_value": 4.0,
"gp_rank": 608,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 4.909,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 0.0,
"w_rank": 476,
"l_value": 1.0,
"l_rank": 381,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 2.0,
"hld_rank": 205,
"ip_value": 3.2,
"ip_rank": 693,
"h_value": 1.0,
"h_rank": 768,
"er_value": 2.0,
"er_rank": 687,
"hr_value": 0.0,
"hr_rank": 690,
"bb_value": 5.0,
"bb_rank": 569,
"k_value": 4.0,
"k_rank": 644,
"k_per_9_value": 9.818182,
"k_per_9_rank": 25,
"whip_value": 1.6363,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": -0.06,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9908,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9908,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0405,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.9485,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "insufficient_data"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 2,
"H": 1,
"BB": 5,
"SO": 4,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 4.909090909090909,
"WHIP": 1.6363636363636365,
"K9": 9.818181818181818,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 4,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 4,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 4,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "684665",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 1.0
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 0.733,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.1279,
"prior_weight": 0.8721
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "684665",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 4,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 4,
"totals": {
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"ER": 2.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 5.0,
"SO": 4.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 16.0,
"Pitches": 74.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.5,
"R": 0.75,
"H": 0.25,
"BB": 1.25,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0,
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"Pitches": 18.5
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.6364,
"ER_per_IP": 0.54545,
"H_per_IP": 0.27273,
"BB_per_IP": 1.36364,
"SO_per_IP": 1.09091,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
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"totals": {
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"ER": 2.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 5.0,
"SO": 4.0,
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"Pitches": 74.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.5,
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"BB": 1.25,
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},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 0.54545,
"H_per_IP": 0.27273,
"BB_per_IP": 1.36364,
"SO_per_IP": 1.09091,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 4,
"totals": {
"IP": 3.2,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 5.0,
"SO": 4.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 16.0,
"Pitches": 74.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.5,
"R": 0.75,
"H": 0.25,
"BB": 1.25,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.0,
"Pitches": 18.5
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.6364,
"ER_per_IP": 0.54545,
"H_per_IP": 0.27273,
"BB_per_IP": 1.36364,
"SO_per_IP": 1.09091,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.505,
"predicted_H": 0.883,
"predicted_BB": 0.488,
"predicted_SO": 0.976,
"predicted_HR": 0.13,
"predicted_ERA": 4.5409,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.3717
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.7185,
"form_weight": 0.2815,
"form_reliability": 0.1279,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 0.733,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.1279,
"prior_weight": 0.8721
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.505,
"final": 0.1422,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.883,
"final": 0.2486,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.488,
"final": 0.1374,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.976,
"final": 0.2748,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.13,
"final": 0.0366,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.5409,
"final": 4.5409,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.3717,
"final": 1.3717,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Blake Weiman |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.6554 |
| ESPN Rank | 290 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 0.2000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 0 |
| Season WHIP | 1.5000 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAA",
"games": 126,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 76,
"win_pct": 0.3968,
"runs_scored": 519.0,
"runs_allowed": 612.0,
"run_differential": -93.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.7381,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.119,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.8571,
"offense_index": 0.9171,
"defense_index": 0.9247,
"current_streak": "L3",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 3,
"losses": 7,
"win_pct": 0.3,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
"run_differential": -23.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.2481
},
"opponent": {
"team": "TEX",
"games": 125,
"wins": 64,
"losses": 61,
"win_pct": 0.512,
"runs_scored": 524.0,
"runs_allowed": 550.0,
"run_differential": -26.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.208,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.192,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
"offense_index": 0.9333,
"defense_index": 1.0208,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": -8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0153
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.2328,
"offense_edge": -0.0829,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0667,
"defense_strength": -0.0753,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0208,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9911,
"run_prevention": 1.0085,
"strikeout": 0.9984
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "676620",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "676620",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 0.0,
"k_percent": 25.0,
"bb_percent": 0.0,
"woba": 0.222,
"xwoba": 0.187,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0,
"avg_best_speed": 64.0821,
"avg_hyper_speed": 89.1445,
"whiff_percent": 33.3,
"swing_percent": 46.9
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 108.0,
"k_percent": 22.2,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5616,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8955,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.6
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.9509,
"command_and_miss": 1.015,
"regression_edge": 1.0,
"xwoba_edge": 2.5,
"barrel_edge": 1.5778,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.5,
"whiff_edge": 1.1143,
"bb_edge": 2.225,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "676620",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.6554,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9443,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0273,
"walk_factor": 0.9199,
"homer_factor": 0.8644,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.035,
"regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "676620",
"espn_id": 41457,
"player_name": "Blake Weiman",
"team": "LAA",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 290,
"espn_total_ranked": 802,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 290,
"gp_value": 3.0,
"gp_rank": 646,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 337,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 199,
"era_value": 0.0,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 0.0,
"w_rank": 476,
"l_value": 0.0,
"l_rank": 530,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 233,
"hld_value": 1.0,
"hld_rank": 241,
"ip_value": 2.2,
"ip_rank": 729,
"h_value": 4.0,
"h_rank": 701,
"er_value": 0.0,
"er_rank": 764,
"hr_value": 0.0,
"hr_rank": 690,
"bb_value": 0.0,
"bb_rank": 765,
"k_value": 3.0,
"k_rank": 673,
"k_per_9_value": 10.125,
"k_per_9_rank": 24,
"whip_value": 1.5,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.28,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9749,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9749,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.964,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.939,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0123,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "insufficient_data"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 2.2,
"ER": 0,
"H": 4,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 3,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"K9": 10.125,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 3,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 3,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 3,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-10T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "676620",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 1.0
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 0.533,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.0964,
"prior_weight": 0.9036
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "676620",
"report_date": "20260811",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 3,
"reference_playing_time": 0.1,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 3,
"totals": {
"IP": 2.2,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 4.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 12.0,
"Pitches": 44.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 1.3333,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.0,
"Pitches": 14.6667
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 1.5,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 1.125,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 3,
"totals": {
"IP": 2.2,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 4.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 12.0,
"Pitches": 44.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 1.3333,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.0,
"Pitches": 14.6667
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 1.5,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 1.125,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 3,
"totals": {
"IP": 2.2,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 4.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 12.0,
"Pitches": 44.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 1.3333,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.0,
"Pitches": 14.6667
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 1.5,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 1.125,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 0.1,
"predicted_ER": 0.179,
"predicted_H": 0.407,
"predicted_BB": 0.129,
"predicted_SO": 0.388,
"predicted_HR": 0.053,
"predicted_ERA": 4.0543,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.349
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.7318,
"form_weight": 0.2682,
"form_reliability": 0.0964,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 0.533,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.0964,
"prior_weight": 0.9036
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.1,
"form": 0.1,
"final": 0.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.179,
"final": 0.048,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.407,
"final": 0.1092,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.129,
"final": 0.0346,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.388,
"final": 0.1041,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.053,
"final": 0.0142,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.0543,
"final": 4.0543,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.349,
"final": 1.349,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.203 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.227 | 0.000 | -0.227 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.581 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.745 | 4.000 | 0.255 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.253 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.261 | 0.500 | -0.011 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.257 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.296 | 0.000 | -0.296 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.905 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.976 | 2.000 | 0.024 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.095 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.097 | 0.000 | 0.903 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.318 | 0.500 | -0.068 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.378 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.429 | 0.000 | 0.571 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.608 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.733 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.389 | 1.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.399 | 0.500 | 0.601 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.689 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.623 | 2.000 | -0.623 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_HR: 0.0950 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.9050, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.6890 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6890, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.6890 -> 0.7850 (boost 0.0960, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.6080 -> 0.5298 (deboost -0.0782, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2897 -> 0.2813 (deboost -0.0084, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.5063 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4937, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2251 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2251, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.022 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3346 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3346, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2369 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0131, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3591 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1091, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3591 (boost 0.1091, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2369 (deboost -0.0131, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "687093",
"player_name": "Vaughn Grissom",
"position": "3B",
"team": "LAA",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.203,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.581,
"predicted_AVG": 0.253,
"predicted_BB": 0.257,
"predicted_H": 0.905,
"predicted_HR": 0.095,
"predicted_OBP": 0.303,
"predicted_R": 0.378,
"predicted_RBI": 0.608,
"predicted_SLG": 0.389,
"predicted_SO": 0.689
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2017,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.6385,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2434,
"predicted_BB": 0.2274,
"predicted_H": 0.8843,
"predicted_HBP": 0.041,
"predicted_HR": 0.0827,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2897,
"predicted_R": 0.3501,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5298,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3674,
"predicted_SO": 0.785
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.203,
"after": 0.2017,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.0064,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.581,
"after": 3.6385,
"delta": 0.0575,
"percent_delta": 0.0161,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.253,
"after": 0.2434,
"delta": -0.0096,
"percent_delta": -0.0379,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.257,
"after": 0.2274,
"delta": -0.0296,
"percent_delta": -0.1152,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.905,
"after": 0.8843,
"delta": -0.0207,
"percent_delta": -0.0229,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.095,
"after": 0.0827,
"delta": -0.0123,
"percent_delta": -0.1295,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.303,
"after": 0.2897,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -0.0439,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.378,
"after": 0.3501,
"delta": -0.0279,
"percent_delta": -0.0738,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.608,
"after": 0.5298,
"delta": -0.0782,
"percent_delta": -0.1286,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.389,
"after": 0.3674,
"delta": -0.0216,
"percent_delta": -0.0555,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.689,
"after": 0.785,
"delta": 0.096,
"percent_delta": 0.1393,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.689,
"after": 0.785,
"delta": 0.096,
"percent_delta": 0.1393,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.608,
"after": 0.5298,
"delta": -0.0782,
"percent_delta": -0.1286,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 74
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2017,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.6385,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2369,
"predicted_BB": 0.2251,
"predicted_H": 0.8619,
"predicted_HBP": 0.041,
"predicted_HR": 0.0807,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2813,
"predicted_R": 0.3346,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5063,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3591,
"predicted_SO": 0.7931
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2017,
"after": 0.2017,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6385,
"after": 3.6385,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2434,
"after": 0.2369,
"delta": -0.0065,
"percent_delta": -0.0267,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2274,
"after": 0.2251,
"delta": -0.0023,
"percent_delta": -0.0101,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8843,
"after": 0.8619,
"delta": -0.0224,
"percent_delta": -0.0253,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.041,
"after": 0.041,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.581,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.419,
"percent_delta": 0.117,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.253,
"after": 0.2369,
"delta": -0.0161,
"percent_delta": -0.0636,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.257,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.257,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.905,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.095,
"percent_delta": 0.105,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.095,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.905,
"percent_delta": 9.5263,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.303,
"after": 0.2813,
"delta": -0.0217,
"percent_delta": -0.0716,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.378,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.622,
"percent_delta": 1.6455,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.608,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.392,
"percent_delta": 0.6447,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.389,
"after": 0.3591,
"delta": -0.0299,
"percent_delta": -0.0769,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.689,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.689,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.095,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.905,
"percent_delta": 9.5263,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.689,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.689,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.203 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.581 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.253 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.257 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.905 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.095 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.378 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.608 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.389 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.689 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.202 | -0.001 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.639 | 0.058 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | -0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.227 | -0.030 |
| predicted_H | 0.884 | -0.021 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.041 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.083 | -0.012 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.290 | -0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.350 | -0.028 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.530 | -0.078 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.367 | -0.022 |
| predicted_SO | 0.785 | 0.096 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.202 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.639 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.237 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.225 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.862 | -0.022 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.081 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.335 | -0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.506 | -0.024 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.359 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.793 | 0.008 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.022
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.202 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.361 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.225 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.138 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.081 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.031 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.335 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.494 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.109 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.207 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.2500 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.3500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 12.000 | 0.1842 | 0.2051 | 0.2368 | 0.1842 | 0.0000 | 0.0526 | 0.0263 | 0.3158 |
| season | 0.60 | 74 | - | 265.000 | 67.000 | 15.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 45.000 | 28.000 | 19.000 | 51.000 | 0.2528 | 0.3116 | 0.3887 | 0.2528 | 0.0264 | 0.1698 | 0.0717 | 0.1925 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7170 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2304 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1870 |
| predicted_H | 0.8560 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0410 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0660 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2715 |
| predicted_R | 0.3120 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4230 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3379 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9160 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2030 | 0.2000 | 0.2017 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5810 | 3.7170 | 3.6385 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2530 | 0.2304 | 0.2434 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2570 | 0.1870 | 0.2274 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9050 | 0.8560 | 0.8843 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0410 | 0.0410 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0950 | 0.0660 | 0.0827 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3030 | 0.2715 | 0.2897 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3780 | 0.3120 | 0.3501 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6080 | 0.4230 | 0.5298 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3890 | 0.3379 | 0.3674 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6890 | 0.9160 | 0.7850 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 247 |
| Season rows before report date | 247 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 74 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.253 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 687093 |
| playerID | 687093 |
| playerName | Vaughn Grissom |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | LAA |
| teamID | 13 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.308 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.32 |
| sl_xba | 0.256 |
| sl_xslg | 0.397 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.214 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.207 | 0.000 | -0.207 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.950 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.858 | 5.000 | 0.142 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.215 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.282 | 0.000 | -0.282 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.388 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.408 | 0.000 | -0.408 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.011 | 0.000 | -0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.850 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.087 | 0.000 | -1.087 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.078 | 0.000 | -0.078 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.313 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.356 | 0.000 | -0.356 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.398 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.430 | 0.000 | -0.430 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.464 | 0.000 | -0.464 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.350 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.396 | 0.000 | -0.396 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.571 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.620 | 1.000 | 0.380 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.5710 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4290, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8500 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8500, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.3880 -> 0.4465 (boost 0.0585, better) | predicted_AB: 3.9500 -> 3.8295 (deboost -0.1205, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3207 -> 0.2991 (deboost -0.0216, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.5469 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4531, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4439 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4439, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.023 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4079 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4079, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2182 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0318, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3391 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.0891, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3391 (boost 0.0891, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2182 (deboost -0.0318, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "694384",
"player_name": "Nolan Schanuel",
"position": "1B",
"team": "LAA",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.214,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.95,
"predicted_AVG": 0.215,
"predicted_BB": 0.388,
"predicted_H": 0.85,
"predicted_HR": 0.08,
"predicted_OBP": 0.313,
"predicted_R": 0.398,
"predicted_RBI": 0.44,
"predicted_SLG": 0.35,
"predicted_SO": 0.571
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1938,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.8295,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2242,
"predicted_BB": 0.4465,
"predicted_H": 0.8573,
"predicted_HBP": 0.036,
"predicted_HR": 0.0916,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3207,
"predicted_R": 0.4268,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4645,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3583,
"predicted_SO": 0.5413
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.214,
"after": 0.1938,
"delta": -0.0202,
"percent_delta": -0.0944,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.95,
"after": 3.8295,
"delta": -0.1205,
"percent_delta": -0.0305,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.215,
"after": 0.2242,
"delta": 0.0092,
"percent_delta": 0.0428,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.388,
"after": 0.4465,
"delta": 0.0585,
"percent_delta": 0.1508,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.85,
"after": 0.8573,
"delta": 0.0073,
"percent_delta": 0.0086,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0916,
"delta": 0.0116,
"percent_delta": 0.145,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.313,
"after": 0.3207,
"delta": 0.0077,
"percent_delta": 0.0246,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.398,
"after": 0.4268,
"delta": 0.0288,
"percent_delta": 0.0724,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.44,
"after": 0.4645,
"delta": 0.0245,
"percent_delta": 0.0557,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.35,
"after": 0.3583,
"delta": 0.0083,
"percent_delta": 0.0237,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.571,
"after": 0.5413,
"delta": -0.0297,
"percent_delta": -0.052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.388,
"after": 0.4465,
"delta": 0.0585,
"percent_delta": 0.1508,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.95,
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"after": 0.2991,
"delta": 0.0491,
"percent_delta": 0.1963,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3391,
"delta": 0.0891,
"percent_delta": 0.3563,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3391,
"delta": 0.0891,
"percent_delta": 0.3563,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2182,
"delta": -0.0318,
"percent_delta": -0.1272,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.214,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.214,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.95,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.05,
"percent_delta": 0.0127,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.215,
"after": 0.2182,
"delta": 0.0032,
"percent_delta": 0.0149,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.388,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.388,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.85,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.85,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.08,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.313,
"after": 0.2991,
"delta": -0.0139,
"percent_delta": -0.0444,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.398,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.398,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.44,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.44,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.35,
"after": 0.3391,
"delta": -0.0109,
"percent_delta": -0.0311,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.571,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.429,
"percent_delta": 0.7513,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.571,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.429,
"percent_delta": 0.7513,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.85,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.85,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.214 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.950 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.215 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.388 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.850 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.313 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.398 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.350 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.571 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.194 | -0.020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.829 | -0.121 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | 0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.447 | 0.058 |
| predicted_H | 0.857 | 0.007 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.036 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.092 | 0.012 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.321 | 0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.427 | 0.029 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.465 | 0.025 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.358 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.541 | -0.030 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.194 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.829 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.218 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.442 | -0.005 |
| predicted_H | 0.836 | -0.022 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.036 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.089 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | -0.022 |
| predicted_R | 0.408 | -0.019 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.444 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.339 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SO | 0.547 | 0.006 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.023
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.194 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.171 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.032 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.442 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.164 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.089 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.049 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.408 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.444 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.089 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.453 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.1765 | 0.3478 | 0.3529 | 0.1765 | 0.0588 | 0.2353 | 0.2941 | 0.0588 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 0.1892 | 0.2791 | 0.3243 | 0.1892 | 0.0270 | 0.1081 | 0.1351 | 0.1351 |
| season | 0.60 | 98 | - | 366.000 | 99.000 | 21.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 41.000 | 39.000 | 38.000 | 56.000 | 0.2705 | 0.3454 | 0.3852 | 0.2705 | 0.0191 | 0.1120 | 0.1038 | 0.1530 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1670 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6700 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2363 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5240 |
| predicted_H | 0.8670 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0360 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1070 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3308 |
| predicted_R | 0.4650 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4970 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3694 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5020 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2140 | 0.1670 | 0.1938 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9500 | 3.6700 | 3.8295 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2150 | 0.2363 | 0.2242 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3880 | 0.5240 | 0.4465 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8500 | 0.8670 | 0.8573 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0360 | 0.0360 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.1070 | 0.0916 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3130 | 0.3308 | 0.3207 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3980 | 0.4650 | 0.4268 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4400 | 0.4970 | 0.4645 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3500 | 0.3694 | 0.3583 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5710 | 0.5020 | 0.5413 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 358 |
| Season rows before report date | 358 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 98 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.27 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 694384 |
| playerID | 694384 |
| playerName | Nolan Schanuel |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | LAA |
| teamID | 13 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 13.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.33 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.333 |
| sl_xba | 0.282 |
| sl_xslg | 0.388 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 16.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.092 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.800 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.714 | 4.000 | -0.714 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.220 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.154 | 0.000 | -0.154 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.262 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.143 | 0.000 | -0.143 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.615 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.571 | 0.000 | -0.571 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.092 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.286 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.185 | 0.000 | -0.185 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.246 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.338 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.352 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.154 | 0.000 | -0.154 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.662 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.6620 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3380, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.6150 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6150, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | predicted_AB: 2.8000 -> 2.9541 (boost 0.1541, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3520 -> 0.3293 (deboost -0.0227, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3293 -> 0.3197 (deboost -0.0096, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.6095 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3905, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.2895 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2895, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.027 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.2237 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2237, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2063 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1267, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2063 (deboost -0.1267, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "694208",
"player_name": "Moisés Ballesteros",
"position": "DH",
"team": "LAA",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.092,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.8,
"predicted_AVG": 0.22,
"predicted_BB": 0.262,
"predicted_H": 0.615,
"predicted_HR": 0.092,
"predicted_OBP": 0.286,
"predicted_R": 0.246,
"predicted_RBI": 0.338,
"predicted_SLG": 0.352,
"predicted_SO": 0.662
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0916,
"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 2.9541,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2125,
"predicted_BB": 0.2558,
"predicted_H": 0.6253,
"predicted_HBP": 0.004,
"predicted_HR": 0.0825,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2746,
"predicted_R": 0.2341,
"predicted_RBI": 0.303,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3293,
"predicted_SO": 0.7123
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.092,
"after": 0.0916,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0008,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.8,
"after": 2.9541,
"delta": 0.1541,
"percent_delta": 0.055,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.22,
"after": 0.2125,
"delta": -0.0075,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3197,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2063,
"delta": -0.1267,
"percent_delta": -0.3804,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.269,
"delta": -0.064,
"percent_delta": -0.1923,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3197,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -0.0401,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2063,
"delta": -0.1267,
"percent_delta": -0.3804,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.092,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.092,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.8,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.2,
"percent_delta": 0.0714,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.22,
"after": 0.2063,
"delta": -0.0137,
"percent_delta": -0.0623,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.262,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.262,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.615,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.615,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.092,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.092,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.286,
"after": 0.269,
"delta": -0.017,
"percent_delta": -0.0594,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.246,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.246,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.338,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.338,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.352,
"after": 0.3197,
"delta": -0.0323,
"percent_delta": -0.0918,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.662,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.338,
"percent_delta": 0.5106,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.662,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.338,
"percent_delta": 0.5106,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.615,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.615,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.092 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.800 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.220 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.262 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.615 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.092 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.286 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.246 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.338 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.352 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.662 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.092 | -0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 2.954 | 0.154 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.212 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.256 | -0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.625 | 0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.004 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.083 | -0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.275 | -0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.234 | -0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.303 | -0.035 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.329 | -0.023 |
| predicted_SO | 0.712 | 0.050 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.092 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.954 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.206 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.253 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.610 | -0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.081 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.269 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.224 | -0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.289 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.320 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.720 | 0.007 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.027
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.092 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.046 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.127 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.253 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.390 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.081 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.064 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.224 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.289 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.280 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.1579 | 0.2000 | 0.1579 | 0.1579 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0526 | 0.2632 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 0.1562 | 0.2059 | 0.1875 | 0.1562 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0625 | 0.2812 |
| season | 0.60 | 65 | - | 182.000 | 40.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 22.000 | 16.000 | 17.000 | 43.000 | 0.2198 | 0.2836 | 0.3516 | 0.2198 | 0.0330 | 0.1209 | 0.0934 | 0.2363 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0910 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.1740 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2017 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2470 |
| predicted_H | 0.6400 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0040 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0690 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2584 |
| predicted_R | 0.2170 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2530 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2968 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7840 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0920 | 0.0910 | 0.0916 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0020 | 0.0008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.8000 | 3.1740 | 2.9541 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2200 | 0.2017 | 0.2125 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2620 | 0.2470 | 0.2558 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6150 | 0.6400 | 0.6253 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0040 | 0.0040 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0920 | 0.0690 | 0.0825 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2860 | 0.2584 | 0.2746 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.2460 | 0.2170 | 0.2341 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3380 | 0.2530 | 0.3030 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3520 | 0.2968 | 0.3293 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6620 | 0.7840 | 0.7123 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 7 |
| Season rows before report date | 7 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 65 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.22 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 694208 |
| playerID | 694208 |
| playerName | Moisés Ballesteros |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | LAA |
| teamID | 13 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.289 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.314 |
| sl_xba | 0.246 |
| sl_xslg | 0.398 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 47.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 9.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.133 | 0.000 | -0.133 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.680 | 4.000 | 0.320 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.280 | 0.000 | -0.280 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.172 | 0.000 | -0.172 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.660 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.750 | 0.000 | -0.750 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.141 | 0.000 | -0.141 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.326 | 0.000 | -0.326 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.420 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.508 | 0.000 | -0.508 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.400 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.570 | 0.000 | -0.570 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.488 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.487 | 0.000 | -0.487 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.860 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.742 | 3.000 | -0.742 | -3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.5000 -> 3.0000 (boost 0.5000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8600 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8600, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AB: 2.5000 -> 2.6012 (boost 0.1012, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5131 -> 0.5033 (deboost -0.0098, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | predicted_AB: 2.6012 -> 3.0000 (boost 0.3988, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3739 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3739, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.060 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3904 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3904, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2598 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0732, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.5033 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.1703, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.5033 (boost 0.1703, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2598 (deboost -0.0732, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "642350",
"player_name": "Jose Siri",
"position": "LF",
"team": "LAA",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.14,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.5,
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2598,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3051,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5033,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2598,
"delta": -0.0732,
"percent_delta": -0.2199,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3051,
"delta": -0.0279,
"percent_delta": -0.0837,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.5033,
"delta": 0.1703,
"percent_delta": 0.5114,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.5033,
"delta": 0.1703,
"percent_delta": 0.5114,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2598,
"delta": -0.0732,
"percent_delta": -0.2199,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.14,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.5,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.264,
"after": 0.2598,
"delta": -0.0042,
"percent_delta": -0.0159,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.16,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.66,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.14,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.308,
"after": 0.3051,
"delta": -0.0029,
"percent_delta": -0.0094,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.42,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.488,
"after": 0.5033,
"delta": 0.0153,
"percent_delta": 0.0314,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.86,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.86,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.5,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.86,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.86,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.660 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.420 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.400 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.488 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.860 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.163 | 0.023 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 2.601 | 0.101 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.267 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.172 | 0.012 |
| predicted_H | 0.693 | 0.033 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.015 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | 0.020 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.313 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.408 | -0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.391 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.513 | 0.025 |
| predicted_SO | 0.945 | 0.085 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.163 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.601 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.260 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.170 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.676 | -0.018 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.156 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.390 | -0.018 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.374 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.503 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.954 | 0.010 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.060
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.163 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.399 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.073 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.170 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.324 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.156 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.028 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.390 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.374 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.170 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.046 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 0.3333 | 0.3750 | 0.8667 | 0.3333 | 0.1333 | 0.1333 | 0.0667 | 0.6000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 24.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 12.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3077 | 0.5833 | 0.2500 | 0.0833 | 0.0833 | 0.0833 | 0.5000 |
| season | 0.60 | 52 | - | 125.000 | 33.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 20.000 | 21.000 | 8.000 | 43.000 | 0.2640 | 0.3111 | 0.4880 | 0.2640 | 0.0560 | 0.1600 | 0.0640 | 0.3440 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1970 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0020 |
| predicted_AB | 2.7550 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2702 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1890 |
| predicted_H | 0.7440 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0150 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1910 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3200 |
| predicted_R | 0.3910 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3780 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5512 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0730 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1400 | 0.1970 | 0.1626 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0020 | 0.0008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.5000 | 2.7550 | 2.6012 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2640 | 0.2702 | 0.2665 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1600 | 0.1890 | 0.1715 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6600 | 0.7440 | 0.6933 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0150 | 0.0150 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1400 | 0.1910 | 0.1602 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3080 | 0.3200 | 0.3128 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4200 | 0.3910 | 0.4085 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4000 | 0.3780 | 0.3913 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4880 | 0.5512 | 0.5131 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8600 | 1.0730 | 0.9445 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 128 |
| Season rows before report date | 128 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 52 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.264 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 3 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 642350 |
| playerID | 642350 |
| playerName | Jose Siri |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | LAA |
| teamID | 13 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.359 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.321 |
| sl_xba | 0.232 |
| sl_xslg | 0.446 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 13.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 34.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.232 | 0.000 | -0.232 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.107 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.274 | 3.000 | -0.274 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.305 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.318 | 0.333 | -0.318 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.286 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.390 | 0.000 | -0.390 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.946 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.043 | 1.000 | -1.043 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.054 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.055 | 0.000 | -0.055 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.363 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.392 | 0.333 | -0.392 | -0.333 |
| predicted_R | 0.411 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.524 | 0.000 | -0.524 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.357 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.439 | 0.000 | -0.439 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.414 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.439 | 0.333 | -0.439 | -0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.750 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.768 | 0.000 | 1.232 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 10 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 11 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.7500 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.2500, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.9460 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9460, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.1070 -> 3.2370 (boost 0.1300, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4151 -> 0.4063 (deboost -0.0088, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.7589 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2411, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.3255 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3255, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.296 HR/AB=0.018 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4088 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4088, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2964 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0366, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4063 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0733, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4063 (boost 0.0733, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2964 (deboost -0.0366, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "685133",
"player_name": "Wade Meckler",
"position": "RF",
"team": "LAA",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"predicted_AVG": 0.305,
"predicted_BB": 0.286,
"predicted_H": 0.946,
"predicted_HR": 0.054,
"predicted_OBP": 0.363,
"predicted_R": 0.411,
"predicted_RBI": 0.357,
"predicted_SLG": 0.414,
"predicted_SO": 0.75
},
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},
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"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 3.237,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3045,
"predicted_BB": 0.2753,
"predicted_H": 0.9845,
"predicted_HBP": 0.004,
"predicted_HR": 0.0585,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3593,
"predicted_R": 0.4278,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3406,
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"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
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"last_10": 10,
"season": 56
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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"predicted_AVG": 0.2964,
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"predicted_HR": 0.0571,
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{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2964,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3511,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4063,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2964,
"delta": -0.0366,
"percent_delta": -0.1098,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3511,
"delta": 0.0181,
"percent_delta": 0.0543,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4063,
"delta": 0.0733,
"percent_delta": 0.2202,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4063,
"delta": 0.0733,
"percent_delta": 0.2202,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2964,
"delta": -0.0366,
"percent_delta": -0.1098,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.179,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.179,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.107,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.107,
"percent_delta": -0.0344,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.2964,
"delta": -0.0086,
"percent_delta": -0.0282,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.286,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.286,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.946,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.946,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.054,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.054,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.363,
"after": 0.3511,
"delta": -0.0119,
"percent_delta": -0.0328,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.411,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.411,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.357,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.357,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.414,
"after": 0.4063,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -0.0186,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.25,
"percent_delta": 1.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 10,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 11,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.25,
"percent_delta": 1.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.946,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.946,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.107 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.305 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.286 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.946 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.054 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.363 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.411 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.357 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.414 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.750 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.183 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.237 | 0.130 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.304 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.275 | -0.011 |
| predicted_H | 0.985 | 0.039 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.004 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.059 | 0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.359 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.428 | 0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.341 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.415 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.751 | 0.001 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.183 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.237 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.296 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.273 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.960 | -0.025 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.057 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.351 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.409 | -0.019 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.326 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.406 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.759 | 0.008 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.296 HR/AB=0.018
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.183 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.237 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.037 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.273 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.040 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.057 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | -0.018 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.409 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.326 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.073 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.241 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.2857 | 0.3182 | 0.3333 | 0.2857 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0476 | 0.1905 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 12.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.3636 | 0.4000 | 0.5152 | 0.3636 | 0.0303 | 0.0909 | 0.0606 | 0.1818 |
| season | 0.60 | 56 | - | 174.000 | 53.000 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 20.000 | 23.000 | 16.000 | 42.000 | 0.3046 | 0.3632 | 0.4138 | 0.3046 | 0.0172 | 0.1149 | 0.0920 | 0.2414 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1880 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4240 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3038 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2600 |
| predicted_H | 1.0400 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0040 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0650 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3539 |
| predicted_R | 0.4520 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3170 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4168 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7530 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1790 | 0.1880 | 0.1827 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0020 | 0.0008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.1070 | 3.4240 | 3.2370 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3050 | 0.3038 | 0.3045 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2860 | 0.2600 | 0.2753 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9460 | 1.0400 | 0.9845 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0040 | 0.0040 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0540 | 0.0650 | 0.0585 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3630 | 0.3539 | 0.3593 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4110 | 0.4520 | 0.4278 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3570 | 0.3170 | 0.3406 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4140 | 0.4168 | 0.4151 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7500 | 0.7530 | 0.7512 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 164 |
| Season rows before report date | 164 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 56 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.305 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 1 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 685133 |
| playerID | 685133 |
| playerName | Wade Meckler |
| pos | OF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | LAA |
| teamID | 13 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.349 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.314 |
| sl_xba | 0.261 |
| sl_xslg | 0.37 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 31.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 6.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.125 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.142 | 0.000 | -0.142 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 | -0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.261 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.526 | 3.000 | 0.474 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.247 | 0.333 | 0.003 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.114 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.132 | 0.000 | -0.132 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.620 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.871 | 1.000 | 0.129 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.103 | 0.000 | -0.103 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.270 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.292 | 0.333 | -0.042 | -0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.295 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.358 | 0.000 | -0.358 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.270 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.348 | 0.000 | -0.348 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.149 | 0.000 | -0.149 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.329 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.384 | 0.333 | -0.134 | -0.083 |
| predicted_SO | 1.045 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.113 | 0.000 | 0.887 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.0450 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.9550, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.2950 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2950, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3290 -> 0.3123 (deboost -0.0167, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2634 -> 0.2180 (deboost -0.0454, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.6192 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3808, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.2305 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2305, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.019 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.2495 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2495, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1920 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1410, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1920 (deboost -0.1410, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "672724",
"player_name": "Oswald Peraza",
"position": "2B",
"team": "LAA",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.125,
"predicted_3B": 0.023,
"predicted_AB": 3.261,
"predicted_AVG": 0.227,
"predicted_BB": 0.114,
"predicted_H": 0.62,
"predicted_HR": 0.07,
"predicted_OBP": 0.27,
"predicted_R": 0.295,
"predicted_RBI": 0.27,
"predicted_SLG": 0.329,
"predicted_SO": 1.045
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1059,
"predicted_3B": 0.0188,
"predicted_AB": 3.2258,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2183,
"predicted_BB": 0.1085,
"predicted_H": 0.6353,
"predicted_HBP": 0.104,
"predicted_HR": 0.0624,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2634,
"predicted_R": 0.2611,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2412,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3123,
"predicted_SO": 1.0344
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.125,
"after": 0.1059,
"delta": -0.0191,
"percent_delta": -0.1528,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.023,
"after": 0.0188,
"delta": -0.0042,
"percent_delta": -0.1826,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.261,
"after": 3.2258,
"delta": -0.0352,
"percent_delta": -0.0108,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.227,
"after": 0.2183,
"delta": -0.0087,
"percent_delta": -0.0383,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.114,
"after": 0.1085,
"delta": -0.0055,
"percent_delta": -0.0482,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.62,
"after": 0.6353,
"delta": 0.0153,
"percent_delta": 0.0247,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.07,
"after": 0.0624,
"delta": -0.0076,
"percent_delta": -0.1086,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.2634,
"delta": -0.0066,
"percent_delta": -0.0244,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.295,
"after": 0.2611,
"delta": -0.0339,
"percent_delta": -0.1149,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.2412,
"delta": -0.0288,
"percent_delta": -0.1067,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.329,
"after": 0.3123,
"delta": -0.0167,
"percent_delta": -0.0508,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.045,
"after": 1.0344,
"delta": -0.0106,
"percent_delta": -0.0101,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.329,
"after": 0.3123,
"delta": -0.0167,
"percent_delta": -0.0508,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 88
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1059,
"predicted_3B": 0.0188,
"predicted_AB": 3.2258,
"predicted_AVG": 0.192,
"predicted_BB": 0.1074,
"predicted_H": 0.6192,
"predicted_HBP": 0.104,
"predicted_HR": 0.0609,
"predicted_OBP": 0.218,
"predicted_R": 0.2495,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2305,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2931,
"predicted_SO": 1.0451
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1059,
"after": 0.1059,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0188,
"after": 0.0188,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.2258,
"after": 3.2258,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2183,
"after": 0.192,
"delta": -0.0263,
"percent_delta": -0.1205,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1085,
"after": 0.1074,
"delta": -0.0011,
"percent_delta": -0.0101,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6353,
"after": 0.6192,
"delta": -0.0161,
"percent_delta": -0.0253,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.104,
"after": 0.104,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0624,
"after": 0.0609,
"delta": -0.0015,
"percent_delta": -0.024,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2634,
"after": 0.218,
"delta": -0.0454,
"percent_delta": -0.1724,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.2611,
"after": 0.2495,
"delta": -0.0116,
"percent_delta": -0.0444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2412,
"after": 0.2305,
"delta": -0.0107,
"percent_delta": -0.0444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3123,
"after": 0.2931,
"delta": -0.0192,
"percent_delta": -0.0615,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0344,
"after": 1.0451,
"delta": 0.0107,
"percent_delta": 0.0103,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.2634,
"after": 0.218,
"delta": -0.0454,
"percent_delta": -0.1724,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.019",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1059,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1059,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0188,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0188,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.2258,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.2258,
"percent_delta": -0.07,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1074,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1074,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6192,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3808,
"percent_delta": 0.615,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.104,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.104,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0609,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0609,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2305,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2305,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0451,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0451,
"percent_delta": -0.0432,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.6192,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3808,
"percent_delta": 0.615,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2305,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2305,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.2495,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2495,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.2495,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2495,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.192,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.141,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0399,
"percent_delta": 0.1361,
"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"material": false
},
{
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
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"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.192,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.218,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2931,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.218,
"delta": -0.115,
"percent_delta": -0.3454,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2931,
"delta": -0.0399,
"percent_delta": -0.1198,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": -0.023,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
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},
{
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
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"percent_delta": 0.6129,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"delta": -0.052,
"percent_delta": -0.1926,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.295,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.295,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.27,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.329,
"after": 0.2931,
"delta": -0.0359,
"percent_delta": -0.1091,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.045,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.955,
"percent_delta": 0.9139,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.955,
"percent_delta": 0.9139,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -0.295,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.125 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.261 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.114 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.620 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.270 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.295 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.270 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.329 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.045 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.106 | -0.019 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 3.226 | -0.035 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.218 | -0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.108 | -0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.635 | 0.015 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.104 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.062 | -0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.263 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.261 | -0.034 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.241 | -0.029 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.312 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 1.034 | -0.011 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.106 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.226 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.192 | -0.026 |
| predicted_BB | 0.107 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.619 | -0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.104 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.061 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.218 | -0.045 |
| predicted_R | 0.249 | -0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.231 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.293 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SO | 1.045 | 0.011 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.019
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.106 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.226 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.141 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.107 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.381 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.061 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.115 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.249 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.231 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.040 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.045 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 0.1333 | 0.1875 | 0.1333 | 0.1333 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 28.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 10.000 | 0.1786 | 0.2333 | 0.1786 | 0.1786 | 0.0000 | 0.0357 | 0.0357 | 0.3571 |
| season | 0.60 | 88 | - | 287.000 | 67.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 24.000 | 26.000 | 10.000 | 92.000 | 0.2334 | 0.2754 | 0.3589 | 0.2334 | 0.0244 | 0.0836 | 0.0348 | 0.3206 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0800 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 |
| predicted_AB | 3.1780 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2065 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1010 |
| predicted_H | 0.6560 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1040 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0520 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2544 |
| predicted_R | 0.2150 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2895 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0200 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1250 | 0.0800 | 0.1059 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0230 | 0.0130 | 0.0188 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.2610 | 3.1780 | 3.2258 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2270 | 0.2065 | 0.2183 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1140 | 0.1010 | 0.1085 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6200 | 0.6560 | 0.6353 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1040 | 0.1040 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0700 | 0.0520 | 0.0624 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2700 | 0.2544 | 0.2634 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.2950 | 0.2150 | 0.2611 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2700 | 0.2020 | 0.2412 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3290 | 0.2895 | 0.3123 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0450 | 1.0200 | 1.0344 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 302 |
| Season rows before report date | 302 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 88 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.233 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 672724 |
| playerID | 672724 |
| playerName | Oswald Peraza |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | LAA |
| teamID | 13 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 30.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.281 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.272 |
| sl_xba | 0.226 |
| sl_xslg | 0.346 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 9.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 56.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.160 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.181 | 0.000 | 0.819 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.900 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.636 | 2.000 | -0.636 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.241 | 0.500 | 0.093 | -0.167 |
| predicted_BB | 0.820 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.880 | 3.000 | -0.880 | -3.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.910 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.875 | 1.000 | 0.125 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.330 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.221 | 1.000 | -0.221 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.378 | 0.250 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.396 | 0.800 | -0.146 | -0.550 |
| predicted_R | 0.670 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.725 | 1.000 | 0.275 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.390 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.491 | 1.000 | 0.509 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.563 | 0.667 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.473 | 2.000 | 0.194 | -1.333 |
| predicted_SO | 1.150 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.125 | 0.000 | -1.125 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.1600 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8400, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.1500 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.1500, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 1.1500 -> 1.2022 (boost 0.0522, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.9000 -> 3.7330 (deboost -0.1670, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5081 -> 0.4798 (deboost -0.0283, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | predicted_AB: 3.7330 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.2670, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3682 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3682, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.073 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6098 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3902, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.3575 -> 0.4000 (boost 0.0425, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4798 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.2298, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4798 (boost 0.2298, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.4000 -> 0.3575 (deboost -0.0425, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "545361",
"player_name": "Mike Trout",
"position": "CF",
"team": "LAA",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.9,
"predicted_AVG": 0.233,
"predicted_BB": 0.82,
"predicted_H": 0.91,
"predicted_HR": 0.33,
"predicted_OBP": 0.378,
"predicted_R": 0.67,
"predicted_RBI": 0.39,
"predicted_SLG": 0.563,
"predicted_SO": 1.15
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.733,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2206,
"predicted_BB": 0.8308,
"predicted_H": 0.8271,
"predicted_HBP": 0.029,
"predicted_HR": 0.2903,
"predicted_OBP": 0.371,
"predicted_R": 0.6381,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3853,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5081,
"predicted_SO": 1.2022
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"delta": -0.0263,
"percent_delta": -0.1644,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 3.733,
"delta": -0.167,
"percent_delta": -0.0428,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"after": 0.2206,
"delta": -0.0124,
"percent_delta": -0.0532,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.8308,
"delta": 0.0108,
"percent_delta": 0.0132,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 0.8271,
"delta": -0.0829,
"percent_delta": -0.0911,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.2903,
"delta": -0.0397,
"percent_delta": -0.1203,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"after": 0.371,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -0.0185,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 0.6381,
"delta": -0.0319,
"percent_delta": -0.0476,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 0.3853,
"delta": -0.0047,
"percent_delta": -0.0121,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"after": 0.5081,
"delta": -0.0549,
"percent_delta": -0.0975,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": 0.0522,
"percent_delta": 0.0454,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
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],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"percent_delta": 0.0454,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 3.733,
"delta": -0.167,
"percent_delta": -0.0428,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 100
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.733,
"predicted_AVG": 0.216,
"predicted_BB": 0.8222,
"predicted_H": 0.8062,
"predicted_HBP": 0.029,
"predicted_HR": 0.2834,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3575,
"predicted_R": 0.6098,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3682,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4798,
"predicted_SO": 1.2146
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"changed_metrics": [
{
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"after": 0.1337,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.216,
"delta": -0.0046,
"percent_delta": -0.0209,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.8222,
"delta": -0.0086,
"percent_delta": -0.0104,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"after": 0.8062,
"delta": -0.0209,
"percent_delta": -0.0253,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.029,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.2834,
"delta": -0.0069,
"percent_delta": -0.0238,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.371,
"after": 0.3575,
"delta": -0.0135,
"percent_delta": -0.0364,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6381,
"after": 0.6098,
"delta": -0.0283,
"percent_delta": -0.0444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3853,
"after": 0.3682,
"delta": -0.0171,
"percent_delta": -0.0444,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"after": 0.4798,
"delta": -0.0283,
"percent_delta": -0.0557,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": 0.0124,
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"direction": "no_change",
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}
],
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.073",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.1337,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1337,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.267,
"percent_delta": 0.0715,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.1778,
"percent_delta": 0.2162,
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"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.8062,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1938,
"percent_delta": 0.2404,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.029,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.029,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2834,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2834,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.3682,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3682,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 1.2146,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.2146,
"percent_delta": -0.1767,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.267,
"percent_delta": 0.0715,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3682,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6098,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3902,
"percent_delta": 0.6399,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
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"predicted_OBP": 0.4,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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"delta": -1.0,
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "higher",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": -1.0,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 3,
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"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.216,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3575,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4798,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"delta": -0.0425,
"percent_delta": -0.1063,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": 0.2298,
"percent_delta": 0.919,
"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
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"better_metrics": 1,
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"biggest_boost": {
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},
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"direction": "deboost",
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"delta": -0.0205,
"percent_delta": -0.0542,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.67,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.33,
"percent_delta": 0.4925,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.39,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.61,
"percent_delta": 1.5641,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.563,
"after": 0.4798,
"delta": -0.0832,
"percent_delta": -0.1478,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.15,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.15,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.16,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.84,
"percent_delta": 5.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 1.15,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.15,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.900 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.820 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.910 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.330 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.378 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.670 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.390 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.563 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.150 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.134 | -0.026 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.733 | -0.167 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | -0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.831 | 0.011 |
| predicted_H | 0.827 | -0.083 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.029 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.290 | -0.040 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.371 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.638 | -0.032 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.385 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.508 | -0.055 |
| predicted_SO | 1.202 | 0.052 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.134 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.733 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.822 | -0.009 |
| predicted_H | 0.806 | -0.021 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.283 | -0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.357 | -0.014 |
| predicted_R | 0.610 | -0.028 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.368 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.480 | -0.028 |
| predicted_SO | 1.215 | 0.012 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.073
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.134 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.267 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.034 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.178 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.194 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.283 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.400 | 0.043 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.390 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.368 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.230 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.215 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 7.000 | 0.1250 | 0.3636 | 0.5000 | 0.1250 | 0.1250 | 0.1250 | 0.3750 | 0.4375 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 16.000 | 0.1714 | 0.3095 | 0.3429 | 0.1714 | 0.0571 | 0.0571 | 0.2000 | 0.4571 |
| season | 0.60 | 100 | - | 359.000 | 85.000 | 16.000 | 0.000 | 20.000 | 42.000 | 67.000 | 82.000 | 115.000 | 0.2368 | 0.3848 | 0.4485 | 0.2368 | 0.0557 | 0.1170 | 0.2284 | 0.3203 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0990 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5130 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2043 |
| predicted_BB | 0.8450 |
| predicted_H | 0.7180 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0290 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2380 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3617 |
| predicted_R | 0.5960 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3790 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4359 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2710 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1600 | 0.0990 | 0.1337 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9000 | 3.5130 | 3.7330 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2330 | 0.2043 | 0.2206 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.8200 | 0.8450 | 0.8308 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9100 | 0.7180 | 0.8271 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0290 | 0.0290 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.3300 | 0.2380 | 0.2903 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3780 | 0.3617 | 0.3710 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6700 | 0.5960 | 0.6381 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3900 | 0.3790 | 0.3853 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5630 | 0.4359 | 0.5081 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1500 | 1.2710 | 1.2022 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 393 |
| Season rows before report date | 393 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 100 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 1 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.237 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 3 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 1 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 545361 |
| playerID | 545361 |
| playerName | Mike Trout |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | LAA |
| teamID | 13 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 17.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.358 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.387 |
| sl_xba | 0.254 |
| sl_xslg | 0.506 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 16.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 47.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 39.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.190 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.222 | 0.000 | -0.222 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 | -0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.220 | 4.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.024 | 5.000 | -0.024 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.179 | 0.250 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.010 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.422 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.472 | 0.000 | -0.472 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.087 | 0.000 | -0.087 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.940 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.967 | 0.000 | 0.033 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.193 | 0.000 | -0.193 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.241 | 0.250 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.329 | 0.000 | -0.079 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.638 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.726 | 0.000 | -0.726 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.700 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.493 | 0.000 | -0.493 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.352 | 0.250 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.452 | 0.000 | -0.202 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.431 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.441 | 1.000 | -1.441 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.9400 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0600, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.4310 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.4310, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_AB: 5.2200 -> 4.7638 (deboost -0.4562, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3543 -> 0.3367 (deboost -0.0176, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5930 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4070, better) | predicted_SO: 1.4519 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.4519, better) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=5.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.033 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.500) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5363 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4637, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.1794 -> 0.2000 (boost 0.0206, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3367 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.1367, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | - | predicted_AB: 5.0000 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2000 -> 0.3367 (boost 0.1367, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2000 -> 0.1794 (deboost -0.0206, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "687263",
"player_name": "Zach Neto",
"position": "SS",
"team": "LAA",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.19,
"predicted_3B": 0.026,
"predicted_AB": 5.22,
"predicted_AVG": 0.179,
"predicted_BB": 0.422,
"predicted_H": 0.94,
"predicted_HR": 0.19,
"predicted_OBP": 0.241,
"predicted_R": 0.638,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7,
"predicted_SLG": 0.352,
"predicted_SO": 1.431
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1839,
"predicted_3B": 0.0217,
"predicted_AB": 4.7638,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1839,
"predicted_BB": 0.3547,
"predicted_H": 0.8766,
"predicted_HBP": 0.043,
"predicted_HR": 0.1783,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2413,
"predicted_R": 0.5612,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6206,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3543,
"predicted_SO": 1.4371
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.1839,
"delta": -0.0061,
"percent_delta": -0.0321,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0217,
"delta": -0.0043,
"percent_delta": -0.1654,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.22,
"after": 4.7638,
"delta": -0.4562,
"percent_delta": -0.0874,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.179,
"after": 0.1839,
"delta": 0.0049,
"percent_delta": 0.0274,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.422,
"after": 0.3547,
"delta": -0.0673,
"percent_delta": -0.1595,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.94,
"after": 0.8766,
"delta": -0.0634,
"percent_delta": -0.0674,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.1783,
"delta": -0.0117,
"percent_delta": -0.0616,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.2413,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0012,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.638,
"after": 0.5612,
"delta": -0.0768,
"percent_delta": -0.1204,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7,
"after": 0.6206,
"delta": -0.0794,
"percent_delta": -0.1134,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.352,
"after": 0.3543,
"delta": 0.0023,
"percent_delta": 0.0065,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.431,
"after": 1.4371,
"delta": 0.0061,
"percent_delta": 0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.22,
"after": 4.7638,
"delta": -0.4562,
"percent_delta": -0.0874,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 116
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1839,
"predicted_3B": 0.0217,
"predicted_AB": 4.7638,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1794,
"predicted_BB": 0.351,
"predicted_H": 0.8544,
"predicted_HBP": 0.043,
"predicted_HR": 0.1741,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2357,
"predicted_R": 0.5363,
"predicted_RBI": 0.593,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3367,
"predicted_SO": 1.4519
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1839,
"after": 0.1839,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0217,
"after": 0.0217,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.7638,
"after": 4.7638,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1839,
"after": 0.1794,
"delta": -0.0045,
"percent_delta": -0.0245,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3547,
"after": 0.351,
"delta": -0.0037,
"percent_delta": -0.0104,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8766,
"after": 0.8544,
"delta": -0.0222,
"percent_delta": -0.0253,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.043,
"after": 0.043,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1783,
"after": 0.1741,
"delta": -0.0042,
"percent_delta": -0.0236,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2413,
"after": 0.2357,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -0.0232,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5612,
"after": 0.5363,
"delta": -0.0249,
"percent_delta": -0.0444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6206,
"after": 0.593,
"delta": -0.0276,
"percent_delta": -0.0445,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3543,
"after": 0.3367,
"delta": -0.0176,
"percent_delta": -0.0497,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.4371,
"after": 1.4519,
"delta": 0.0148,
"percent_delta": 0.0103,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3543,
"after": 0.3367,
"delta": -0.0176,
"percent_delta": -0.0497,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 5 (raw=5.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.033",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1839,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1839,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0217,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0217,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.7638,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.2362,
"percent_delta": 0.0496,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.351,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.351,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8544,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1456,
"percent_delta": 0.1704,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.043,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.043,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1741,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1741,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.593,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.407,
"percent_delta": 0.6863,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.4519,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.4519,
"percent_delta": -0.3112,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.593,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.407,
"percent_delta": 0.6863,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.4519,
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"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.94,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.06,
"percent_delta": 0.0638,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.431,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.431,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.220 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.179 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.422 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.940 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.241 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.638 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.700 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.352 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.431 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.184 | -0.006 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 4.764 | -0.456 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.184 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.355 | -0.067 |
| predicted_H | 0.877 | -0.063 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.043 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.178 | -0.012 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.241 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.561 | -0.077 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.621 | -0.079 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.354 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 1.437 | 0.006 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.184 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.764 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.179 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.351 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.854 | -0.022 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.043 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.174 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.236 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.536 | -0.025 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.593 | -0.028 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.337 | -0.018 |
| predicted_SO | 1.452 | 0.015 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=5.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.033
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.500)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.184 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.022 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.236 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | 0.021 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.351 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.146 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.174 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.200 | -0.036 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.464 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.407 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.200 | -0.137 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.452 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 23.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 0.1304 | 0.1304 | 0.3043 | 0.1304 | 0.0435 | 0.1739 | 0.0000 | 0.3044 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 44.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 17.000 | 0.1364 | 0.1364 | 0.2273 | 0.1364 | 0.0227 | 0.1136 | 0.0000 | 0.3864 |
| season | 0.60 | 116 | - | 462.000 | 103.000 | 22.000 | 3.000 | 20.000 | 51.000 | 74.000 | 49.000 | 166.000 | 0.2229 | 0.3077 | 0.4134 | 0.2229 | 0.0433 | 0.1104 | 0.1061 | 0.3593 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1760 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 |
| predicted_AB | 4.1690 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1904 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 |
| predicted_H | 0.7940 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0430 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1630 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2417 |
| predicted_R | 0.4610 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5170 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3573 |
| predicted_SO | 1.4450 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1900 | 0.1760 | 0.1839 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0260 | 0.0160 | 0.0217 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.2200 | 4.1690 | 4.7638 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1790 | 0.1904 | 0.1839 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4220 | 0.2670 | 0.3547 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9400 | 0.7940 | 0.8766 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0430 | 0.0430 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1900 | 0.1630 | 0.1783 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2410 | 0.2417 | 0.2413 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6380 | 0.4610 | 0.5612 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7000 | 0.5170 | 0.6206 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3520 | 0.3573 | 0.3543 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.4310 | 1.4450 | 1.4371 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 460 |
| Season rows before report date | 460 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 116 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.223 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 687263 |
| playerID | 687263 |
| playerName | Zach Neto |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | LAA |
| teamID | 13 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 32.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.32 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.3 |
| sl_xba | 0.2 |
| sl_xslg | 0.392 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 22.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.043 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.098 | 0.000 | -0.098 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 | -0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.674 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.561 | 1.000 | 0.439 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.185 | 0.333 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.257 | 0.000 | 0.076 | 0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.109 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.220 | 0.000 | -0.220 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.200 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.659 | 0.000 | 0.341 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.199 | 0.333 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.316 | 0.000 | 0.018 | 0.333 |
| predicted_R | 0.196 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.220 | 0.000 | -0.220 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.060 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.049 | 0.000 | -0.049 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.240 | 0.333 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.314 | 0.000 | 0.019 | 0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.500 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.244 | 0.000 | 0.756 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.2000 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.1960 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1960, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.2000 -> 0.3361 (boost 0.1361, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.1888 -> 0.1204 (deboost -0.0684, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | predicted_SO: 0.4608 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5392, worse) | predicted_H: 0.3276 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3276, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.120 HR/AB=0.011 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.1835 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1835, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.1874 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1874, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.0000 -> 0.1874 (boost 0.1874, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "623168",
"player_name": "Tyler Heineman",
"position": "C",
"team": "LAA",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.043,
"predicted_3B": 0.022,
"predicted_AB": 2.674,
"predicted_AVG": 0.185,
"predicted_BB": 0.109,
"predicted_H": 0.2,
"predicted_HR": 0.03,
"predicted_OBP": 0.199,
"predicted_R": 0.196,
"predicted_RBI": 0.06,
"predicted_SLG": 0.24,
"predicted_SO": 0.5
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0446,
"predicted_3B": 0.0256,
"predicted_AB": 2.7219,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1888,
"predicted_BB": 0.1161,
"predicted_H": 0.3361,
"predicted_HBP": 0.038,
"predicted_HR": 0.0296,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2148,
"predicted_R": 0.192,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1114,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2498,
"predicted_SO": 0.4561
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.043,
"after": 0.0446,
"delta": 0.0016,
"percent_delta": 0.0372,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.022,
"after": 0.0256,
"delta": 0.0036,
"percent_delta": 0.1636,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.674,
"after": 2.7219,
"delta": 0.0479,
"percent_delta": 0.0179,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.185,
"after": 0.1888,
"delta": 0.0038,
"percent_delta": 0.0205,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.109,
"after": 0.1161,
"delta": 0.0071,
"percent_delta": 0.0651,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.3361,
"delta": 0.1361,
"percent_delta": 0.6805,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 0.0296,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0133,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.199,
"after": 0.2148,
"delta": 0.0158,
"percent_delta": 0.0794,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.196,
"after": 0.192,
"delta": -0.004,
"percent_delta": -0.0204,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.06,
"after": 0.1114,
"delta": 0.0514,
"percent_delta": 0.8567,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2498,
"delta": 0.0098,
"percent_delta": 0.0408,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 0.4561,
"delta": -0.0439,
"percent_delta": -0.0878,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.3361,
"delta": 0.1361,
"percent_delta": 0.6805,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 46
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0446,
"predicted_3B": 0.0256,
"predicted_AB": 2.7219,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1204,
"predicted_BB": 0.1149,
"predicted_H": 0.3276,
"predicted_HBP": 0.038,
"predicted_HR": 0.0289,
"predicted_OBP": 0.156,
"predicted_R": 0.1835,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1065,
"predicted_SLG": 0.1874,
"predicted_SO": 0.4608
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0446,
"after": 0.0446,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0256,
"after": 0.0256,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.7219,
"after": 2.7219,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1888,
"after": 0.1204,
"delta": -0.0684,
"percent_delta": -0.3623,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1161,
"after": 0.1149,
"delta": -0.0012,
"percent_delta": -0.0103,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.3361,
"after": 0.3276,
"delta": -0.0085,
"percent_delta": -0.0253,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.038,
"after": 0.038,
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"percent_delta": -0.3492,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.109,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.109,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.8,
"percent_delta": 4.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.03,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.199,
"after": 0.156,
"delta": -0.043,
"percent_delta": -0.2161,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.196,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.196,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.06,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.06,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.1874,
"delta": -0.0526,
"percent_delta": -0.2192,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.8,
"percent_delta": 4.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.196,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.196,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.043 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.674 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.185 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.109 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.199 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.196 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.060 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.240 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.500 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.045 | 0.002 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | 0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 2.722 | 0.048 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.189 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.116 | 0.007 |
| predicted_H | 0.336 | 0.136 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.038 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.215 | 0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.192 | -0.004 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.111 | 0.051 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.456 | -0.044 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.045 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.722 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.120 | -0.068 |
| predicted_BB | 0.115 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.328 | -0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.038 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.029 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.156 | -0.059 |
| predicted_R | 0.183 | -0.009 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.106 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.187 | -0.062 |
| predicted_SO | 0.461 | 0.005 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.120 HR/AB=0.011
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.045 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.026 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.278 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.000 | -0.120 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.115 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | -0.328 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.029 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.000 | -0.156 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.183 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.106 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.000 | -0.187 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.539 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 11.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.1818 | 0.1818 | 0.1818 | 0.1818 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 26.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.1923 | 0.2500 | 0.2692 | 0.1923 | 0.0000 | 0.0769 | 0.0769 | 0.0385 |
| season | 0.60 | 46 | - | 123.000 | 22.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 9.000 | 5.000 | 23.000 | 0.1789 | 0.2290 | 0.2358 | 0.1789 | 0.0081 | 0.0650 | 0.0406 | 0.1870 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0470 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0310 |
| predicted_AB | 2.7950 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1945 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1270 |
| predicted_H | 0.5440 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0380 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0290 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2390 |
| predicted_R | 0.1860 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1900 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2647 |
| predicted_SO | 0.3890 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0430 | 0.0470 | 0.0446 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0220 | 0.0310 | 0.0256 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.6740 | 2.7950 | 2.7219 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1850 | 0.1945 | 0.1888 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1090 | 0.1270 | 0.1161 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.2000 | 0.5440 | 0.3361 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0380 | 0.0380 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0300 | 0.0290 | 0.0296 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.1990 | 0.2390 | 0.2148 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.1960 | 0.1860 | 0.1920 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.0600 | 0.1900 | 0.1114 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2400 | 0.2647 | 0.2498 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5000 | 0.3890 | 0.4561 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 41 |
| Season rows before report date | 41 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 46 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.179 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 2 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | short |
| mlbID | 623168 |
| playerID | 623168 |
| playerName | Tyler Heineman |
| pos | C |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | LAA |
| teamID | 13 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.214 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.249 |
| sl_xba | 0.227 |
| sl_xslg | 0.274 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 25.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 1.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 12.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 81.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 55.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.923 | 5.000 | -0.923 | -4.000 |
| predicted_ER | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_ER | 3.077 | 1.000 | 2.923 | 5.000 |
| predicted_H | 7.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | Pitching_H | 4.308 | 3.000 | 2.692 | 4.000 |
| predicted_IP | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 3.808 | 4.200 | 0.192 | -0.200 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 2.923 | 1.000 | -0.923 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 4.6667 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.6667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | starter_usage_guardrail | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 4.6667 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.6667, worse) | Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "696270",
"player_name": "Ryan Johnson",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "LAA",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 6.0,
"predicted_H": 7.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.6667,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
"description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 6.0,
"predicted_H": 7.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.6667,
"percent_delta": -0.1429,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.6667,
"percent_delta": -0.1429,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 6.0,
"predicted_H": 7.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.0,
"predicted_R": 6.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.6667,
"percent_delta": -0.1429,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.6667,
"percent_delta": -0.1429,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 6.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 7.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 4.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 6.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 7.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 4.000 | -0.667 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 22.100 | 18.000 | 22.000 | 15.000 | 14.000 | 5.000 | 7.2537 | 1.6567 | 0.8060 | 0.9851 | 0.6716 | 0.6269 | 0.2239 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 44.100 | 31.000 | 45.000 | 19.000 | 33.000 | 12.000 | 6.2932 | 1.4436 | 0.6993 | 1.0150 | 0.4286 | 0.7444 | 0.2707 |
| season | 0.20 | 13 | 50.200 | 40.000 | 56.000 | 25.000 | 38.000 | 13.000 | 7.1053 | 1.5987 | 0.7895 | 1.1053 | 0.4934 | 0.7500 | 0.2566 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.1800 |
| predicted_ER | 3.0260 |
| predicted_ERA | 6.2209 |
| predicted_H | 4.4070 |
| predicted_HR | 0.9610 |
| predicted_IP | 4.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 3.3560 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.5045 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 2.1800 | 1.6285 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 6.0000 | 3.0260 | 4.4160 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 6.2209 | 6.2209 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 7.0000 | 4.4070 | 5.6189 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 2.0000 | 0.9610 | 1.4466 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 4.2000 | 4.1000 | 4.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 3.3560 | 2.7222 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.5045 | 1.5045 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 13 |
| Season rows before report date | 13 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 13 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 4.0 |
| H | 7 |
| R | 6 |
| ER | 6 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 2 |
| BF | 20 |
| Pitches | 78 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 5 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 20 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 7.11 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 3 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 4 |
| Pitching_H | 3 |
| Pitching_HBP | 1 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 4.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 78 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 37 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260806_LAA@BAL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 696270 |
| playerID | 696270 |
| playerName | Ryan Johnson |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAA |
| teamID | 13 |
| game_date | 2026-08-06 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.375 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.362 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.4 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.408625122 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.85991561 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.455 | 0.000 | -0.455 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.273 | 0.000 | -0.273 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.591 | 1.000 | 0.409 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.023 | 1.000 | 0.077 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.818 | 2.000 | -0.818 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "696519",
"player_name": "Samy Natera Jr.",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "LAA",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.3333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 6.200 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 0.000 | 1.3500 | 0.9000 | 0.1500 | 0.6000 | 0.3000 | 1.6500 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 18.000 | 0.000 | 0.8182 | 0.6364 | 0.0909 | 0.4546 | 0.1818 | 1.6364 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 21 | 26.000 | 6.000 | 13.000 | 9.000 | 40.000 | 1.000 | 2.0769 | 0.8462 | 0.2308 | 0.5000 | 0.3462 | 1.5385 | 0.0385 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3990 |
| predicted_ER | 0.4060 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.8669 |
| predicted_H | 0.9510 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0980 |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.6530 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0597 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3990 | 0.1767 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.4060 | 0.1798 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.8669 | 2.8669 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.9510 | 0.9783 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0980 | 0.0434 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.6530 | 1.2892 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0597 | 1.0597 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 22 |
| Season rows before report date | 22 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 21 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 12 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.08 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 19 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 12 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 1 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 696519 |
| playerID | 696519 |
| playerName | Samy Natera Jr. |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAA |
| teamID | 13 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 39.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.221 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.219 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 29.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 36.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.5 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.114780417 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.731371042 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.333 | 0.000 | 1.667 | 2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0.667 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | -1.000 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "690829",
"player_name": "Ben Joyce",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "LAA",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 3 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.6667 | 0.0000 | 0.3333 | 0.3333 | 1.0000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 3 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.6667 | 0.0000 | 0.3333 | 0.3333 | 1.0000 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 3 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.6667 | 0.0000 | 0.3333 | 0.3333 | 1.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3570 |
| predicted_ER | 0.4450 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.0063 |
| predicted_H | 0.9040 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1330 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9630 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2616 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0000 | 0.3570 | 1.5519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.4450 | 0.8486 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.0063 | 4.0063 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.9040 | 0.9738 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1330 | 0.0363 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.9630 | 0.2627 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2616 | 1.2616 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 3 |
| Season rows before report date | 3 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 3 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 6 |
| Pitches | 6 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 14 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 10 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 690829 |
| playerID | 690829 |
| playerName | Ben Joyce |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAA |
| teamID | 13 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 28.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 14.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.227 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.215 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 0.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 37.5 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 59.025615 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 91.093525 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.556 | 1.000 | -0.556 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.389 | 0.000 | -0.389 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.861 | 1.000 | -0.861 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.928 | 0.200 | 0.072 | 0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.250 | 0.000 | -0.250 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "820862",
"player_name": "José Fermin",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "LAA",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 6.0000 | 2.0000 | 0.6667 | 1.5000 | 0.5000 | 1.5000 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 11.000 | 4.000 | 12.000 | 4.000 | 15.000 | 2.000 | 3.2727 | 1.4545 | 0.3636 | 1.0909 | 0.3636 | 1.3636 | 0.1818 |
| season | 0.20 | 36 | 39.000 | 14.000 | 31.000 | 20.000 | 45.000 | 5.000 | 3.2308 | 1.3077 | 0.3590 | 0.7949 | 0.5128 | 1.1539 | 0.1282 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4560 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5440 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.4898 |
| predicted_H | 1.2230 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2220 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.3290 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.5387 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4560 | 0.2211 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.5440 | 0.2638 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.4898 | 4.4898 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 1.2230 | 0.5931 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.2220 | 0.1077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.3290 | 1.1596 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.5387 | 1.5387 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 36 |
| Season rows before report date | 36 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 36 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 20 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.23 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 2 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 18 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 12 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 820862 |
| playerID | 820862 |
| playerName | José Fermin |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAA |
| teamID | 13 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.306 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.322 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.8 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 81.22903551 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.470113711 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.250 | 1.000 | -1.250 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.500 | 2.000 | -0.500 | -2.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.250 | 1.000 | -0.250 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.800 | 0.100 | 0.200 | 0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.000 | 0.000 | -1.000 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "684665",
"player_name": "Luke Murphy",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "LAA",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 4 | 3.200 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 4.9091 | 1.6364 | 0.5454 | 0.2727 | 1.3636 | 1.0909 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 4 | 3.200 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 4.9091 | 1.6364 | 0.5454 | 0.2727 | 1.3636 | 1.0909 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 4 | 3.200 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 4.9091 | 1.6364 | 0.5454 | 0.2727 | 1.3636 | 1.0909 | 0.0000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4880 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5050 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.5409 |
| predicted_H | 0.8830 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9760 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3717 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4880 | 0.1374 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.5050 | 0.1422 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.5409 | 4.5409 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.8830 | 0.2486 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1300 | 0.0366 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.9760 | 0.2748 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3717 | 1.3717 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 4 |
| Season rows before report date | 4 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 4 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 18 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 2 |
| Pitching_ERA | 4.91 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 14 |
| Pitching_R | 3 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 7 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | L |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 6 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 684665 |
| playerID | 684665 |
| playerName | Luke Murphy |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAA |
| teamID | 13 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 30.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 30.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.215 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.278 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 40.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 0.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 20.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 78.72513 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 90.111786 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 1.333 | 2.000 | -1.333 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.733 | 0.200 | -0.533 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | -1.000 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 0.1000 -> 0.2000 (boost 0.1000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 0.1000 -> 0.2000 (boost 0.1000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "676620",
"player_name": "Blake Weiman",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "LAA",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.1,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 3 | 2.200 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 1.5000 | 0.0000 | 1.5000 | 0.0000 | 1.1250 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 3 | 2.200 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 1.5000 | 0.0000 | 1.5000 | 0.0000 | 1.1250 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 3 | 2.200 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 1.5000 | 0.0000 | 1.5000 | 0.0000 | 1.1250 | 0.0000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.1290 |
| predicted_ER | 0.1790 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.0543 |
| predicted_H | 0.4070 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0530 |
| predicted_IP | 0.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.3880 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3490 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.1290 | 0.0346 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.1790 | 0.0480 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.0543 | 4.0543 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.4070 | 0.1092 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0530 | 0.0142 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.3880 | 0.1041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3490 | 1.3490 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 3 |
| Season rows before report date | 3 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 3 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 0.2 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 2 |
| Pitches | 15 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 3 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 3 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 12 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 9 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 7 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260810_TEX@LAA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 676620 |
| playerID | 676620 |
| playerName | Blake Weiman |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAA |
| teamID | 13 |
| game_date | 2026-08-10 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 0.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.222 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.187 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 0.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 0.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.9 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 64.08211 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 89.144535 |