Nightly self-improvement · slate 2026-10-01
Generated 2026-10-02T05:00:00.004611-04:00 ET from official finals (mlb-api). Every learning stage is listed with what it did. "Blocked" means it wanted to act and a safety rule stopped it; "nothing to learn" means it had no eligible evidence.
Slate
2026-10-01
status completed
Winners
1/1
Brier 0.2335
Learned or changed
0
of 5 stages
Blocked
0
wanted to act and could not
Release
v4.31.0
DRIFT
What each learning stage did
| Stage | Outcome | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| KPI settlement | failed | did not run |
| Bullpen usage model | nothing to learn | No pregame bullpen forecasts to settle. Refit: not attempted. |
| Adaptive parameter proposal (Luna) | nothing to learn | skipped_open_rollback_monitor: |
| Auto-apply | nothing to learn | no_promotable_candidate |
| Code agent | nothing to learn | disabled_by_config: code changes are made on the development host, never in the container. |
Games
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Home win prob | Result | Main driver | Starters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@ATL | 3-4 | 2-6 | 0.517 | hit | Aaron Nola: 16 proj / 5 real outs; Ray Kerr: 14 proj / 10 real outs |
Day over day
Rolling evidence window against the prior night. Associations, not causal proof.
| Metric | Prior | Current | Change | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| brier_score | 0.2444 | 0.2435 | -0.0009 | improved |
| accuracy | 0.5897 | 0.5877 | -0.0020 | regressed |
| team_run_mae | 2.5385 | 2.5351 | -0.0034 | improved |
| total_run_mae | 3.6923 | 3.6316 | -0.0607 | improved |
| calibration_error | 0.0889 | 0.0896 | 0.0007 | regressed |
| starter_er_mae | 1.7438 | 1.7243 | -0.0195 | improved |
| starter_outs_mae | 4.0909 | 4.2103 | 0.1194 | regressed |
Calibration produced for the next slate
| Metric | Scale used | Measured | Rows | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No calibration produced. | ||||
Luna KPI candidates and their promotion gate
Promotion needs 400+ prospective rows over 5+ slates after the proposal, with a gain interval above zero. Only verified pregame forecasts count; local replays never do.
| KPI | Status | Target | Proposed | Rows | Slates | Gain interval | Progress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| luna_pitcher_release_speed_vs_righthanded_starters | shadow | SO | 20260923 | 330/400 | 5/5 | [-0.0007, 0.0007] | |
| luna_pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh_righthanded_starters | shadow | HR | 20260923 | 330/400 | 5/5 | [-0.0004, 0.0049] | |
| luna_batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking_righthanded_starters | shadow | H | 20260923 | 330/400 | 5/5 | [-0.0045, 0.0044] | |
| luna_batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking_left_handed_starters_for_strikeouts | shadow | SO | 20260924 | 122/400 | 4/5 | [-0.0027, 0.0021] | |
| luna_pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed_vs_righthanded_starters_for_strikeouts | shadow | SO | 20260924 | 122/400 | 4/5 | [-0.0001, 0.0000] | |
| luna_pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking_vs_left_handed_hitters_for_hits | shadow | H | 20260924 | 122/400 | 4/5 | [-0.0056, -0.0011] | |
| luna_pitcher_home_run_rate_vs_righthanded_starters | shadow | HR | 20260925 | 122/400 | 4/5 | [-0.0010, 0.0056] | |
| luna_batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball_vs_lhp_for_home_runs | shadow | HR | 20260926 | 86/400 | 3/5 | [-0.0001, -0.0000] | |
| luna_pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_right_handed_starters_for_batter_strikeouts | shadow | SO | 20260929 | 51/400 | 2/5 | [–, –] | |
| luna_batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking_right_handed_starters_for_hits | shadow | H | 20260929 | 51/400 | 2/5 | [–, –] | |
| luna_batter_walk_rate_vs_righthanded_pitchers_for_home_runs | retired | HR | 20260924 | 0/400 | 0/5 | [–, –] |
Operator actions the cycle asked for (0)
Changes to code or a model recipe are never made by the nightly cycle. These are the measured findings that need one.
| Priority | Owner | Finding | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| No operator actions requested. | |||
Luna post-mortem
Luna (gpt-5.6-luna) post-mortem, status received. Full analysis.
# 1. Evidence receipt and gaps ## Source manifest All six listed source artifacts marked `loaded` were received and represented in the evidence: 1. **Prediction review** — `/app/output/reports/prediction_review_20261001.json`, 101,990 bytes Purpose: official outcomes and scoring errors. 2. **Forensic deep audit** — `/app/output/reports/PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20261001.json`, 75,617 bytes Purpose: probability, provenance, starter, and decision contracts. 3. **Continuous learning** — `/app/output/learning/continuous_learning_daily_20261001.json`, 454,850 bytes Purpose: pipeline-stage quality, calibration, probability lineage, score distribution, and starter comparisons. 4. **Detailed report** — `/app/output/reports/detailed_20261001.html`, 98,628 bytes Purpose: full game and simulation rendering. 5. **Ultra-detailed player audit** — `/app/output/reports/20261001_ultra_detailed_player_audit.html`, 8,732,780 bytes Purpose: player-level prediction trace. 6. **Structural audit** — `/app/output/reports/audit_report_20261001.html`, 520,200 bytes Purpose: invariant findings. One manifest entry is explicitly missing: 7. **Integrity revision audit** — `/app/output/reports/audit_report_20261001_integrity_revision.html` Status: `missing`; byte count `null` Purpose: post-Luna remediation proof for immutable revision artifacts. The missing integrity-revision audit is an evidence gap and an artifact-contract limitation. It is not, by itself,