MLB Predictions — October 13, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
CLE @ TB	4 - 5	4 - 5	TB	TB	TB wins 5-4	58%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays

CLE 85-77 (4.19 RPG / 4.12 RA)

4 - 5

TB 98-64 (4.54 RPG / 4.01 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 5-4 TARGET: CLE 4 - 5 TB (TB) Confidence: 57.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	2	0	1	0	1	0	0	4	9
TB	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	x	5	11

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.3

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff21

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

TB Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff6

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

CLE Season Quality

Record85-77

Win%0.525

Run Diff11

RD/Game0.068

TB Season Quality

Record98-64

Win%0.605

Run Diff86

RD/Game0.531

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1902; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

Base historical_ml 4.05766 - 5.32602 → published capped_target 4 - 5. Net change: CLE -0.06 runs, TB -0.33 runs across 7 stages, 1 of which moved the target.

KPI layer: computed and withheld (values_fresh). Blend weights in force: away_runs 0.34, home_runs 0.38. Continuous expectation behind the integers: CLE —, TB —. Candidate 20261012T091527Z_e6f3fdba.

#	Stage	CLE - TB	Δ CLE	Δ TB	Justification recorded by the stage
1	`historical_ml`	4.05766 - 5.32602	0	0	Base ML historical model prediction
2	`variance_applied`	4 - 5	-0.06	-0.33	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3	`enhanced_prediction`	4 - 5	0	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
4	`kpi_layer`	4 - 5	0	0	withheld by gate: values_fresh
5	`embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 5	0	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6	`fundamental_edge_target_review`	4 - 5	0	0	target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile
7	`capped_target`	4 - 5	0	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8	`simulation_result`	4 - 5	0	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	CF	150	545	153	0.281	3	33	0.380	5	5	2	2	0	0	0	0.400	0.271	0.375	0.332	OK
José Ramírez	3B	126	479	113	0.236	14	60	0.324	5	3	1	1	0	2	0	0.333	0.240	0.326	0.461	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	133	502	143	0.285	16	68	0.360	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.250	0.319	0.382	OK
Jo Adell	DH	52	196	48	0.245	7	37	0.329	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	0.250	0.241	0.296	0.410	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	44	144	32	0.222	5	27	0.287	4	3	2	0	1	1	1	0.667	0.228	0.314	0.363	OK
Angel Martínez	LF	111	404	99	0.245	18	62	0.282	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.184	0.207	0.332	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	126	456	108	0.237	15	56	0.328	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.200	0.291	0.337	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	77	233	57	0.245	10	34	0.304	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.230	0.285	0.396	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	154	536	134	0.250	13	68	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.213	0.276	0.328	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	36	9	4	4	3	7	0.250

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	156	622	183	0.294	22	85	0.360	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.273	0.323	0.372	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	157	589	163	0.277	23	94	0.359	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.264	0.334	0.446	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	164	622	172	0.277	42	101	0.362	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.265	0.343	0.474	OK
Ryan Vilade	RF	90	243	60	0.247	12	43	0.320	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.241	0.308	0.437	OK
Jonny DeLuca	CF	106	356	95	0.267	11	50	0.300	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.266	0.303	0.454	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	149	579	176	0.304	0	39	0.330	4	4	3	0	0	0	0	0.750	0.251	0.275	0.290	OK
Nick Fortes	C	100	296	77	0.260	6	35	0.304	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	0.250	0.220	0.252	0.375	OK
Jorge Mateo	2B	27	78	11	0.141	1	7	0.181	4	3	0	0	1	0	1	0.000	0.194	0.227	0.299	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	120	376	82	0.218	2	36	0.304	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.191	0.272	0.270	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	11	5	5	1	5	0.324

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Foster Griffin	Starter	10	45.3	5.17	1.589	9.7	49	5.0	10	5	5	1	2	110	5.0	2	5
Joey Cantillo	Long Reliever	34	156.7	3.73	1.461	9.9	172	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	31	2.0	1	0
Tanner Bibee	Middle Reliever	34	183.9	4.55	1.262	7.3	149	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14	1.0	2	0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Drew Rasmussen	Starter	31	178.6	2.57	0.896	9.3	184	5.2	7	3	3	2	5	113	5.2	5	3
Ian Seymour	Long Reliever	48	130.0	4.02	1.131	11.4	164	2.0	2	1	1	1	2	29	2.0	2	1
Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	44	33.6	2.41	0.952	12.1	45	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	9	1.1	0	0

Game Summary

TB wins 5-4

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview