MLB Predictions — October 12, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
CLE @ TB	4 - 5	4 - 5	TB	TB	TB wins 5-4	58%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ MIL	4 - 3	4 - 3	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 4-3	50%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays

CLE 85-77 (4.19 RPG / 4.12 RA)

4 - 5

TB 98-64 (4.54 RPG / 4.01 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 5-4 TARGET: CLE 4 - 5 TB (TB) Confidence: 57.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
CLE	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	4	6
TB	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	6

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.3

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff21

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

TB Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff6

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

CLE Season Quality

Record85-77

Win%0.525

Run Diff11

RD/Game0.068

TB Season Quality

Record98-64

Win%0.605

Run Diff86

RD/Game0.531

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1902; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

Base historical_ml 4.05766 - 5.32602 → published capped_target 4 - 5. Net change: CLE -0.06 runs, TB -0.33 runs across 7 stages, 1 of which moved the target.

KPI layer: computed and withheld (values_fresh). Blend weights in force: away_runs 0.34, home_runs 0.38. Continuous expectation behind the integers: CLE —, TB —. Candidate 20261012T091527Z_e6f3fdba.

#	Stage	CLE - TB	Δ CLE	Δ TB	Justification recorded by the stage
1	`historical_ml`	4.05766 - 5.32602	0	0	Base ML historical model prediction
2	`variance_applied`	4 - 5	-0.06	-0.33	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3	`enhanced_prediction`	4 - 5	0	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
4	`kpi_layer`	4 - 5	0	0	withheld by gate: values_fresh
5	`embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 5	0	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6	`fundamental_edge_target_review`	4 - 5	0	0	target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile
7	`capped_target`	4 - 5	0	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8	`simulation_result`	4 - 5	0	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	CF	150	545	153	0.281	3	33	0.380	5	5	0	1	0	0	0	0.000	0.271	0.375	0.332	OK
José Ramírez	3B	126	479	113	0.236	14	60	0.324	5	5	1	0	2	0	0	0.200	0.240	0.326	0.461	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	133	502	143	0.285	16	68	0.360	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.250	0.319	0.382	OK
Jo Adell	DH	52	196	48	0.245	7	37	0.329	5	4	0	1	0	1	2	0.000	0.241	0.296	0.410	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	44	144	32	0.222	5	27	0.287	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.228	0.314	0.363	OK
Angel Martínez	LF	111	404	99	0.245	18	62	0.282	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.184	0.207	0.332	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	126	456	108	0.237	15	56	0.328	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.200	0.291	0.337	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	77	233	57	0.245	10	34	0.304	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.230	0.285	0.396	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	154	536	134	0.250	13	68	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.213	0.276	0.328	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	39	6	4	4	3	8	0.154

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	156	622	183	0.294	22	85	0.360	5	5	1	0	1	0	0	0.200	0.273	0.323	0.372	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	157	589	163	0.277	23	94	0.359	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.263	0.333	0.445	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	164	622	172	0.277	42	101	0.362	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.265	0.343	0.474	OK
Ryan Vilade	RF	90	243	60	0.247	12	43	0.320	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.241	0.308	0.437	OK
Jonny DeLuca	CF	106	356	95	0.267	11	50	0.300	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.266	0.303	0.454	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	149	579	176	0.304	0	39	0.330	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.250	0.275	0.289	OK
Nick Fortes	C	100	296	77	0.260	6	35	0.304	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.220	0.252	0.375	OK
Jorge Mateo	2B	27	78	11	0.141	1	7	0.181	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.194	0.227	0.299	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	120	376	82	0.218	2	36	0.304	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.191	0.272	0.270	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	6	5	5	2	7	0.171

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Foster Griffin	Starter	10	45.3	5.17	1.589	9.7	49	4.2	5	4	4	2	5	97	4.2	5	4
Joey Cantillo	Long Reliever	34	156.7	3.73	1.461	9.9	172	4.2	1	1	0	0	2	55	4.2	2	0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Drew Rasmussen	Starter	31	178.6	2.57	0.896	9.3	184	6.0	3	1	0	1	5	95	6.0	5	0
Ian Seymour	Long Reliever	48	130.0	4.02	1.131	11.4	164	2.0	2	1	1	1	1	34	2.0	1	1
Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	44	33.6	2.41	0.952	12.1	45	2.0	1	2	1	1	2	42	2.0	2	1

Game Summary

TB wins 5-4

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers

LAD 100-62 (4.94 RPG / 3.7 RA)

4 - 3

MIL 103-59 (5.14 RPG / 3.81 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 4-3 TARGET: LAD 4 - 3 MIL (LAD) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	4	6
MIL	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	7

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed2.2

Run Diff28

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak3W

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed3.0

Run Diff14

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak5W

LAD Season Quality

Record100-62

Win%0.617

Run Diff201

RD/Game1.241

MIL Season Quality

Record103-59

Win%0.636

Run Diff214

RD/Game1.321

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.003; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

Base historical_ml 4.20981 - 4.48789 → published capped_target 4 - 3. Net change: LAD -0.21 runs, MIL -1.49 runs across 7 stages, 2 of which moved the target.

KPI layer: computed and withheld (values_fresh). Blend weights in force: away_runs 0.34, home_runs 0.38. Continuous expectation behind the integers: LAD —, MIL —. Candidate 20261012T091527Z_e6f3fdba.

#	Stage	LAD - MIL	Δ LAD	Δ MIL	Justification recorded by the stage
1	`historical_ml`	4.20981 - 4.48789	0	0	Base ML historical model prediction
2	`variance_applied`	4 - 4	-0.21	-0.49	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3	`enhanced_prediction`	4 - 3	0	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4	`kpi_layer`	4 - 3	0	0	withheld by gate: values_fresh
5	`embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 3	0	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6	`fundamental_edge_target_review`	4 - 3	0	0	target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile
7	`capped_target`	4 - 3	0	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8	`simulation_result`	4 - 3	0	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Mookie Betts	SS	126	493	127	0.258	23	69	0.325	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.239	0.311	0.373	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	157	594	171	0.288	18	70	0.363	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.261	0.330	0.456	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	128	458	122	0.266	17	65	0.330	4	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.250	0.297	0.409	OK
Shohei Ohtani	DH	139	534	145	0.272	30	79	0.375	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.258	0.358	0.452	OK
Will Smith	C	75	254	62	0.244	10	33	0.334	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	0.333	0.206	0.290	0.342	OK
Max Muncy	3B	152	500	125	0.250	32	79	0.343	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.235	0.306	0.527	OK
Andy Pages	CF	137	525	144	0.274	23	87	0.342	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.266	0.322	0.412	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	155	552	130	0.236	18	72	0.328	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.225	0.318	0.380	OK
Tommy Edman	2B	84	294	70	0.238	8	40	0.318	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.138	0.207	0.262	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	4	4	3	9	0.182

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jackson Chourio	LF	130	536	157	0.293	26	81	0.353	5	5	2	0	2	0	2	0.400	0.288	0.339	0.459	OK
Brice Turang	2B	152	589	160	0.272	22	102	0.367	5	4	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.240	0.336	0.478	OK
William Contreras	C	150	580	157	0.271	20	95	0.341	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.258	0.328	0.432	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	143	483	128	0.265	25	84	0.388	4	3	1	0	1	0	1	0.333	0.266	0.389	0.401	OK
Christian Yelich	DH	118	441	103	0.234	12	58	0.317	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.249	0.322	0.375	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	142	468	120	0.256	10	59	0.344	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.234	0.307	0.361	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	75	239	66	0.276	3	33	0.338	4	3	1	2	0	1	1	0.333	0.241	0.303	0.319	OK
Sal Frelick	RF	109	341	80	0.235	4	40	0.298	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.224	0.295	0.299	OK
David Hamilton	3B	114	341	83	0.243	4	26	0.306	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.177	0.234	0.265	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	7	3	3	3	10	0.206

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Starter	29	189.9	2.51	0.874	9.1	192	6.1	4	2	2	3	6	103	6.1	6	2
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	75	49.7	3.08	1.288	13.9	77	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	34	23.7	3.80	1.266	13.7	36	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	11	0.2	1	0
Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	23	20.5	6.59	1.659	13.6	31	1.0	3	1	1	0	2	25	1.0	2	1

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Logan Henderson	Starter	19	102.4	2.46	0.859	10.0	114	5.0	5	4	4	3	5	106	5.0	5	4
JoJo Romero	Long Reliever	13	11.7	4.62	1.282	11.5	15	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	25	18.0	6.00	1.944	7.5	15	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10	1.0	1	0
DL Hall	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	50	57.8	2.02	1.159	10.1	65	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	23	1.2	2	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 4-3

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays

CLE Recent Form

TB Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

TB Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers

LAD Recent Form

MIL Recent Form

LAD Season Quality

MIL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary