MLB Predictions — October 11, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
LAD @ MIL	2 - 4	2 - 4	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 4-2	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers

LAD 100-62 (4.94 RPG / 3.7 RA)

2 - 4

MIL 103-59 (5.14 RPG / 3.81 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 4-2 TARGET: LAD 2 - 4 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 54.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	3
MIL	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	x	4	6

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed2.2

Run Diff28

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak3W

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed3.0

Run Diff14

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak5W

LAD Season Quality

Record100-62

Win%0.617

Run Diff201

RD/Game1.241

MIL Season Quality

Record103-59

Win%0.636

Run Diff214

RD/Game1.321

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.003; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

Base historical_ml 4.16031 - 4.8082 → published capped_target 2 - 4. Net change: LAD -2.16 runs, MIL -0.81 runs across 7 stages, 3 of which moved the target.

KPI layer: computed and withheld (values_fresh). Blend weights in force: away_runs 0.34, home_runs 0.38. Continuous expectation behind the integers: LAD —, MIL —. Candidate 20261011T091221Z_bb8e6dd2.

#	Stage	LAD - MIL	Δ LAD	Δ MIL	Justification recorded by the stage
1	`historical_ml`	4.16031 - 4.8082	0	0	Base ML historical model prediction
2	`variance_applied`	4 - 5	-0.16	+0.19	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3	`enhanced_prediction`	3 - 4	-1	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
4	`kpi_layer`	3 - 4	0	0	withheld by gate: values_fresh
5	`embedded_savant_run_environment`	2 - 4	-1	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6	`fundamental_edge_target_review`	2 - 4	0	0	target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile
7	`capped_target`	2 - 4	0	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8	`simulation_result`	2 - 4	0	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Mookie Betts	SS	125	489	126	0.258	23	69	0.325	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.225	0.295	0.361	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	156	590	170	0.288	18	70	0.363	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.245	0.314	0.444	OK
Will Smith	C	74	251	62	0.247	10	33	0.336	4	4	0	1	0	0	2	0.000	0.234	0.304	0.379	OK
Shohei Ohtani	DH	138	531	144	0.271	30	79	0.374	4	2	1	1	0	2	1	0.500	0.256	0.352	0.449	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	127	454	120	0.264	17	65	0.329	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.226	0.275	0.387	OK
Max Muncy	3B	151	496	124	0.250	32	79	0.343	4	3	1	0	1	1	0	0.333	0.249	0.328	0.575	OK
Andy Pages	CF	136	521	143	0.274	23	86	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.262	0.323	0.432	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	154	550	130	0.236	18	72	0.327	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.242	0.322	0.393	OK
Enrique Hernández	2B	38	96	21	0.219	5	14	0.265	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.221	0.263	0.430	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	3	2	1	3	9	0.091

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jackson Chourio	LF	129	532	155	0.291	26	81	0.352	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	0.667	0.265	0.319	0.447	OK
Brice Turang	2B	151	587	159	0.271	21	101	0.366	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.229	0.309	0.363	OK
William Contreras	C	149	577	157	0.272	20	95	0.342	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.282	0.346	0.469	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	142	480	127	0.265	25	84	0.387	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.252	0.372	0.387	OK
Andrew Vaughn	DH	101	288	89	0.309	6	43	0.385	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.285	0.353	0.407	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	141	465	120	0.258	10	59	0.345	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.249	0.317	0.370	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	74	237	66	0.278	3	33	0.341	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.269	0.329	0.351	OK
Luis Lara	RF	56	191	46	0.241	1	26	0.303	3	3	1	1	0	0	2	0.333	0.229	0.292	0.298	OK
Joey Ortiz	3B	119	373	98	0.263	9	46	0.320	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.256	0.316	0.370	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	30	6	4	4	2	11	0.200

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tarik Skubal	Starter	11	67.3	2.54	1.025	10.3	77	5.2	4	3	3	2	9	93	5.2	9	3
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	74	48.7	3.14	1.294	13.9	75	2.1	2	1	1	0	2	47	2.1	2	1

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jacob Misiorowski	Starter	31	177.5	1.88	0.817	13.1	258	5.0	3	2	0	1	5	94	5.0	5	0
JoJo Romero	Long Reliever	13	11.7	4.62	1.282	11.5	15	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.1	1	0
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	25	18.0	6.00	1.944	7.5	15	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	78	87.3	3.20	1.386	12.5	121	1.2	0	0	0	1	2	26	1.2	2	0

Game Summary

MIL wins 4-2

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

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