MLB Predictions — October 8, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
CLE @ CHW	5 - 4	5 - 4	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 5-4	50%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ NYY	4 - 3	4 - 3	TB	TB	TB wins 4-3	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox

CLE 85-77 (4.19 RPG / 4.12 RA)

5 - 4

CHW 84-78 (4.79 RPG / 4.44 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 5-4 TARGET: CLE 5 - 4 CHW (CLE) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	0	2	0	1	2	0	0	5	6
CHW	1	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	4	8

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.3

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff21

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs6.5

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff22

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

CLE Season Quality

Record85-77

Win%0.525

Run Diff11

RD/Game0.068

CHW Season Quality

Record84-78

Win%0.519

Run Diff56

RD/Game0.346

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1605; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

Base historical_ml 3.71192 - 5.1409 → published capped_target 5 - 4. Net change: CLE +1.29 runs, CHW -1.14 runs across 7 stages, 2 of which moved the target.

KPI layer: computed and withheld (values_fresh). Blend weights in force: away_runs 0.34, home_runs 0.38. Continuous expectation behind the integers: CLE —, CHW —. Candidate 20261008T091425Z_3ccbc4c8.

#	Stage	CLE - CHW	Δ CLE	Δ CHW	Justification recorded by the stage
1	`historical_ml`	3.71192 - 5.1409	0	0	Base ML historical model prediction
2	`variance_applied`	4 - 5	+0.29	-0.14	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3	`enhanced_prediction`	5 - 4	+1	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4	`kpi_layer`	5 - 4	0	0	withheld by gate: values_fresh
5	`embedded_savant_run_environment`	5 - 4	0	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6	`fundamental_edge_target_review`	5 - 4	0	0	target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile
7	`capped_target`	5 - 4	0	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8	`simulation_result`	5 - 4	0	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	CF	148	539	151	0.280	3	33	0.377	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.280	0.377	0.349	OK
José Ramírez	3B	124	471	110	0.234	12	55	0.322	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.227	0.312	0.345	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	131	494	141	0.285	16	67	0.360	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.259	0.333	0.427	OK
Jo Adell	DH	50	188	46	0.245	7	35	0.329	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.246	0.301	0.432	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	42	137	30	0.219	5	27	0.283	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	0.667	0.222	0.304	0.360	OK
Angel Martínez	LF	110	401	99	0.247	18	62	0.282	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.174	0.196	0.315	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	124	449	107	0.238	15	55	0.330	4	4	0	0	1	0	1	0.000	0.213	0.303	0.357	OK
Austin Hedges	C	75	216	53	0.245	6	25	0.327	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.188	0.289	0.332	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	152	531	134	0.252	13	68	0.312	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.268	0.318	0.443	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	34	6	5	5	5	8	0.176

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Chase Meidroth	2B	158	585	163	0.279	17	68	0.351	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.288	0.346	0.448	OK
Randal Grichuk	LF	104	244	73	0.299	15	44	0.329	5	5	3	1	0	0	0	0.600	0.288	0.322	0.549	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	163	605	150	0.248	33	93	0.363	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.229	0.349	0.369	OK
Munetaka Murakami	1B	132	474	98	0.207	36	81	0.343	5	3	1	1	1	2	2	0.333	0.209	0.324	0.463	OK
Tommy Pham	DH	10	20	3	0.150	1	3	0.320	4	4	0	0	1	0	1	0.000	0.080	0.199	0.144	OK
Brenton Doyle	CF	36	99	25	0.253	5	11	0.253	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.149	0.188	0.307	OK
Kyle Teel	C	43	140	30	0.214	5	28	0.319	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	0.250	0.228	0.307	0.344	OK
Braden Montgomery	RF	97	341	76	0.223	6	40	0.307	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.226	0.297	0.337	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	156	577	115	0.199	32	89	0.285	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.204	0.271	0.389	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	8	4	3	4	10	0.222

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Parker Messick	Starter	33	183.9	2.69	1.109	9.7	199	5.0	5	4	3	3	4	97	5.0	4	3
Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	69	45.6	3.75	1.623	11.4	58	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Erik Sabrowski	Setup Man	60	39.7	3.63	1.385	17.7	78	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Cade Smith	Closer	72	73.1	1.97	0.971	13.9	113	2.0	1	0	0	1	3	34	2.0	3	0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Hagen Smith	Starter	20	30.6	1.18	1.111	13.8	47	2.2	1	0	0	1	3	38	2.2	3	0
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	42	33.7	4.54	1.780	13.1	49	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	16	1.0	2	1
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	66	57.4	2.98	1.324	9.3	59	1.0	1	1	1	2	1	26	1.0	1	1
Anthony Kay	Setup Man	35	154.4	4.55	1.425	7.5	129	2.0	2	2	2	2	1	53	2.0	1	2
Grant Taylor	Closer	41	51.9	2.60	1.118	13.2	76	2.1	1	1	1	0	1	30	2.1	1	1

Game Summary

CLE wins 5-4

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

TB 98-64 (4.54 RPG / 4.01 RA)

4 - 3

NYY 93-68 (4.59 RPG / 3.73 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 4-3 TARGET: TB 4 - 3 NYY (TB) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	4	7
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	3	7

TB Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff6

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

TB Season Quality

Record98-64

Win%0.605

Run Diff86

RD/Game0.531

NYY Season Quality

Record93-68

Win%0.578

Run Diff138

RD/Game0.857

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1757; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

Base historical_ml 4.3775 - 4.13845 → published capped_target 4 - 3. Net change: TB -0.38 runs, NYY -1.14 runs across 7 stages, 2 of which moved the target.

KPI layer: computed and withheld (values_fresh). Blend weights in force: away_runs 0.34, home_runs 0.38. Continuous expectation behind the integers: TB —, NYY —. Candidate 20261007T091423Z_47b9db81.

#	Stage	TB - NYY	Δ TB	Δ NYY	Justification recorded by the stage
1	`historical_ml`	4.3775 - 4.13845	0	0	Base ML historical model prediction
2	`variance_applied`	4 - 4	-0.38	-0.14	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3	`enhanced_prediction`	4 - 3	0	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4	`kpi_layer`	4 - 3	0	0	withheld by gate: values_fresh
5	`embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 3	0	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6	`fundamental_edge_target_review`	4 - 3	0	0	target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile
7	`capped_target`	4 - 3	0	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8	`simulation_result`	4 - 3	0	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	155	618	182	0.294	22	85	0.360	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.267	0.322	0.378	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	156	586	162	0.276	23	93	0.358	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.253	0.325	0.431	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	163	618	171	0.277	42	101	0.363	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	0.250	0.263	0.345	0.478	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	LF	72	238	62	0.261	14	34	0.322	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.264	0.323	0.475	OK
Ryan Vilade	RF	89	241	59	0.245	11	42	0.319	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.154	0.230	0.269	OK
Liam Hicks	C	43	131	37	0.282	4	21	0.375	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.241	0.314	0.360	OK
Jonny DeLuca	CF	105	353	94	0.266	11	50	0.300	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.264	0.300	0.451	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	120	352	83	0.236	10	59	0.329	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.248	0.334	0.375	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	119	373	81	0.217	2	36	0.304	4	4	0	1	0	0	1	0.000	0.196	0.279	0.280	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	35	7	4	4	1	7	0.200

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trent Grisham	CF	118	418	88	0.211	17	58	0.304	5	4	2	1	1	1	2	0.500	0.196	0.279	0.309	OK
Ben Rice	DH	154	575	156	0.271	44	101	0.373	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.336	0.424	0.830	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	46	171	45	0.263	8	17	0.298	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.241	0.274	0.447	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	133	503	133	0.264	18	77	0.336	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.226	0.288	0.386	OK
George Lombard Jr.	SS	45	164	40	0.244	7	23	0.288	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.236	0.272	0.383	OK
Austin Wells	C	123	345	67	0.194	14	36	0.293	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.245	0.340	0.389	OK
Anthony Volpe	2B	68	220	54	0.245	2	26	0.322	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	0.333	0.245	0.315	0.335	OK
Spencer Jones	RF	86	273	65	0.238	11	40	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.226	0.287	0.380	OK
José Caballero	3B	124	409	94	0.230	14	50	0.288	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.212	0.270	0.330	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	7	3	3	3	11	0.200

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Drew Rasmussen	Starter	31	178.6	2.57	0.896	9.3	184	5.2	5	2	2	3	8	101	5.2	8	2
Ian Seymour	Long Reliever	47	128.9	4.05	1.133	11.3	162	2.0	2	1	1	0	1	32	2.0	1	1
Cam Booser	Setup Man	43	33.4	2.43	0.958	12.1	45	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8	0.2	1	0
Bryan Baker	Closer	65	62.7	1.29	0.861	9.3	65	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	10	0.2	1	0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Carlos Rodón	Starter	16	82.7	2.72	1.076	9.9	91	5.1	5	3	2	1	4	87	5.1	4	2
Ryan Weathers	Middle Reliever	27	133.4	3.71	1.267	9.6	143	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	18	1.0	1	1
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	65	79.3	1.70	1.185	7.8	69	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
John Schreiber	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	13	11.6	1.55	1.034	4.7	6	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

TB wins 4-3

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox

CLE Recent Form

CHW Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

CHW Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

TB Recent Form

NYY Recent Form

TB Season Quality

NYY Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary