MLB Predictions — October 7, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
CLE @ CHW	5 - 4	5 - 4	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 5-4	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ ATL	6 - 4	6 - 4	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 6-4	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ SD	6 - 5	6 - 5	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 6-5	50%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ NYY	3 - 4	3 - 4	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 4-3	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox

CLE 85-77 (4.19 RPG / 4.12 RA)

5 - 4

CHW 84-78 (4.79 RPG / 4.44 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 5-4 TARGET: CLE 5 - 4 CHW (CLE) Confidence: 53.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	2	5	8
CHW	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	7

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.3

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff21

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs6.5

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff22

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

CLE Season Quality

Record85-77

Win%0.525

Run Diff11

RD/Game0.068

CHW Season Quality

Record84-78

Win%0.519

Run Diff56

RD/Game0.346

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1605; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

Base historical_ml 4.62991 - 2.80166 → published capped_target 5 - 4. Net change: CLE +0.37 runs, CHW +1.2 runs across 7 stages, 2 of which moved the target.

KPI layer: applied. Blend weights in force: away_runs 0.34, home_runs 0.38. Continuous expectation behind the integers: CLE 5.000, CHW 4.445. Candidate 20261007T091423Z_47b9db81.

#	Stage	CLE - CHW	Δ CLE	Δ CHW	Justification recorded by the stage
1	`historical_ml`	4.62991 - 2.80166	0	0	Base ML historical model prediction
2	`variance_applied`	5 - 3	+0.37	+0.2	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3	`enhanced_prediction`	5 - 4	0	+1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4	`kpi_layer`	5 - 4	0	0	all gates passed; blend published
5	`embedded_savant_run_environment`	5 - 4	0	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6	`fundamental_edge_target_review`	5 - 4	0	0	target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile
7	`capped_target`	5 - 4	0	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8	`simulation_result`	5 - 4	0	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	CF	147	533	150	0.281	3	32	0.379	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.279	0.384	0.351	OK
José Ramírez	3B	123	467	108	0.231	12	53	0.320	5	4	1	0	2	1	0	0.250	0.216	0.302	0.327	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	130	490	140	0.286	16	66	0.360	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.258	0.330	0.428	OK
Jo Adell	DH	49	184	44	0.239	7	32	0.322	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.241	0.297	0.417	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	41	135	30	0.222	5	27	0.273	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.235	0.296	0.372	OK
Angel Martínez	LF	109	397	99	0.249	18	62	0.285	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.218	0.242	0.394	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	123	447	107	0.239	15	55	0.329	4	3	1	0	1	1	2	0.333	0.223	0.300	0.368	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	74	223	53	0.238	9	32	0.297	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.214	0.266	0.394	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	151	527	132	0.250	13	67	0.311	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.246	0.301	0.428	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	35	8	5	5	5	6	0.229

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Sam Antonacci	DH	142	488	135	0.277	8	50	0.371	5	5	1	1	0	0	2	0.200	0.287	0.343	0.406	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	162	601	149	0.248	33	93	0.362	5	5	2	0	0	0	1	0.400	0.236	0.374	0.389	OK
Munetaka Murakami	1B	131	470	98	0.209	36	81	0.345	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.218	0.333	0.485	OK
Kyle Teel	C	42	136	29	0.213	5	27	0.321	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.242	0.321	0.347	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	157	581	162	0.279	17	68	0.351	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.299	0.358	0.476	OK
Tristan Peters	CF	150	446	119	0.267	12	57	0.335	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.185	0.246	0.303	OK
Braden Montgomery	RF	96	338	76	0.225	6	40	0.308	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.232	0.298	0.344	OK
Randal Grichuk	LF	103	240	72	0.300	15	44	0.331	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.282	0.320	0.546	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	156	577	115	0.199	32	89	0.285	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.203	0.270	0.392	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	35	7	4	3	4	8	0.200

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Daniel Espino	Starter	15	14.6	4.32	1.438	15.4	25	4.0	3	3	2	3	3	78	4.0	3	2
Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever	68	44.6	3.83	1.659	11.1	55	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	15	1.0	1	0
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	60	39.7	3.63	1.385	17.7	78	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	18	1.0	1	1
Shawn Armstrong	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	40	29.9	3.61	1.472	10.5	35	3.0	2	0	0	0	3	46	3.0	3	0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sean Newcomb	Starter	60	81.2	3.44	1.293	9.6	87	3.1	2	1	1	2	2	69	3.1	2	1
Hagen Smith	Long Reliever	18	28.2	0.96	0.993	13.4	42	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	28	1.1	0	0
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	42	33.7	4.54	1.780	13.1	49	1.0	1	2	2	1	1	20	1.0	1	2
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	66	57.4	2.98	1.324	9.3	59	3.1	4	2	2	1	3	72	3.1	3	2

Game Summary

CLE wins 5-4

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves

LAD 100-62 (4.94 RPG / 3.7 RA)

6 - 4

ATL 94-69 (4.56 RPG / 3.88 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 6-4 TARGET: LAD 6 - 4 ATL (LAD) Confidence: 50.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	6	9
ATL	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	7

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed2.2

Run Diff28

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak3W

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

LAD Season Quality

Record100-62

Win%0.617

Run Diff201

RD/Game1.241

ATL Season Quality

Record94-68

Win%0.580

Run Diff116

RD/Game0.716

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6096; margin adjustment: -0.256; applied: True

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

Base historical_ml 4.69504 - 3.97081 → published capped_target 6 - 4. Net change: LAD +1.3 runs, ATL +0.03 runs across 7 stages, 2 of which moved the target.

KPI layer: applied. Blend weights in force: away_runs 0.34, home_runs 0.38. Continuous expectation behind the integers: LAD 4.041, ATL 3.683. Candidate 20261007T091423Z_47b9db81.

#	Stage	LAD - ATL	Δ LAD	Δ ATL	Justification recorded by the stage
1	`historical_ml`	4.69504 - 3.97081	0	0	Base ML historical model prediction
2	`variance_applied`	5 - 4	+0.3	+0.03	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3	`enhanced_prediction`	5 - 4	0	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
4	`kpi_layer`	5 - 4	0	0	all gates passed; blend published
5	`embedded_savant_run_environment`	6 - 4	+1	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6	`fundamental_edge_target_review`	6 - 4	0	0	target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile
7	`capped_target`	6 - 4	0	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8	`simulation_result`	6 - 4	0	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Mookie Betts	SS	124	485	126	0.260	23	69	0.327	5	4	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.251	0.317	0.412	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	155	586	170	0.290	18	70	0.365	5	5	3	1	0	0	2	0.600	0.266	0.334	0.482	OK
Will Smith	C	73	247	62	0.251	10	33	0.340	5	5	1	1	2	0	0	0.200	0.260	0.330	0.422	OK
Shohei Ohtani	DH	137	528	144	0.273	30	79	0.375	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.264	0.356	0.460	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	126	450	119	0.264	17	65	0.329	4	3	1	2	1	1	1	0.333	0.239	0.289	0.415	OK
Max Muncy	3B	150	492	123	0.250	31	78	0.344	4	4	1	0	2	0	2	0.250	0.178	0.270	0.417	OK
Enrique Hernández	2B	37	94	21	0.223	5	14	0.270	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	0.250	0.231	0.274	0.447	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	153	547	129	0.236	18	72	0.326	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.239	0.314	0.393	OK
Andy Pages	CF	135	518	141	0.272	23	84	0.341	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.252	0.319	0.433	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	36	9	6	6	3	8	0.250

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Michael Harris II	CF	160	613	184	0.300	27	91	0.325	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.288	0.305	0.466	OK
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	112	426	107	0.251	20	55	0.344	4	4	1	0	1	0	2	0.250	0.211	0.298	0.344	OK
Matt Olson	1B	167	642	159	0.248	41	94	0.317	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.214	0.281	0.404	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	167	628	151	0.240	24	78	0.301	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.211	0.278	0.401	OK
Drake Baldwin	DH	143	564	157	0.278	25	81	0.354	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	0.250	0.252	0.323	0.406	OK
Mike Yastrzemski	LF	137	367	81	0.221	12	41	0.298	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.110	0.185	0.207	OK
Mauricio Dubón	SS	158	588	162	0.276	12	74	0.321	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.262	0.309	0.371	OK
Austin Riley	3B	164	578	125	0.216	20	75	0.292	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.167	0.244	0.315	OK
Sean Murphy	C	36	117	22	0.188	4	11	0.269	3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.181	0.267	0.327	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	34	7	4	4	1	12	0.206

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tyler Glasnow	Starter	13	73.3	3.56	0.955	12.0	98	5.1	4	2	2	0	5	94	5.1	5	2
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	73	48.5	3.15	1.278	13.9	75	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Roki Sasaki	Middle Reliever	27	122.0	4.50	1.336	9.1	124	1.1	1	1	1	0	2	24	1.1	2	1
Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	29	25.2	2.50	1.032	9.3	26	1.1	2	1	1	1	4	29	1.1	4	1

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tyler Mahle	Starter	10	60.4	1.94	0.977	8.0	54	5.0	6	3	3	2	4	85	5.0	4	3
Grant Holmes	Long Reliever	34	152.6	3.72	1.383	7.0	118	2.0	1	2	2	1	2	30	2.0	2	2
Dylan Dodd	Middle Reliever	51	48.5	2.78	1.010	10.9	59	2.0	2	1	1	0	2	28	2.0	2	1

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-4

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres

MIL 103-59 (5.14 RPG / 3.81 RA)

6 - 5

SD 91-71 (4.46 RPG / 4.2 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 6-5 TARGET: MIL 6 - 5 SD (MIL) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
MIL	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	6	8
SD	0	1	1	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	5	7

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed3.0

Run Diff14

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak5W

SD Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs6.3

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff18

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

MIL Season Quality

Record103-59

Win%0.636

Run Diff214

RD/Game1.321

SD Season Quality

Record91-71

Win%0.562

Run Diff41

RD/Game0.253

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.723; margin adjustment: -0.3037; applied: True

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

Base historical_ml 4.31679 - 3.95834 → published capped_target 6 - 5. Net change: MIL +1.68 runs, SD +1.04 runs across 7 stages, 3 of which moved the target.

KPI layer: applied. Blend weights in force: away_runs 0.34, home_runs 0.38. Continuous expectation behind the integers: MIL 3.804, SD 5.388. Candidate 20261007T091423Z_47b9db81.

#	Stage	MIL - SD	Δ MIL	Δ SD	Justification recorded by the stage
1	`historical_ml`	4.31679 - 3.95834	0	0	Base ML historical model prediction
2	`variance_applied`	4 - 4	-0.32	+0.04	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3	`enhanced_prediction`	4 - 5	0	+1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
4	`kpi_layer`	4 - 5	0	0	all gates passed; blend published
5	`embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 5	0	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6	`fundamental_edge_target_review`	6 - 5	+2	0	flipped low-confidence one-run target away from unsupported side
7	`capped_target`	6 - 5	0	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8	`simulation_result`	6 - 5	0	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jackson Chourio	LF	128	528	154	0.292	26	80	0.351	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.278	0.327	0.459	OK
Christian Yelich	DH	117	437	102	0.233	12	58	0.317	5	5	1	2	2	0	0	0.200	0.250	0.324	0.381	OK
William Contreras	C	148	572	155	0.271	20	95	0.342	5	3	0	1	0	1	2	0.000	0.271	0.337	0.493	OK
Brice Turang	2B	150	582	158	0.271	21	101	0.367	5	4	3	1	2	1	1	0.750	0.242	0.331	0.420	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	141	479	126	0.263	25	84	0.383	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.234	0.346	0.390	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	73	233	65	0.279	3	33	0.342	5	5	1	0	2	0	2	0.200	0.284	0.347	0.357	OK
Sal Frelick	RF	108	338	79	0.234	4	39	0.298	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.236	0.314	0.319	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	140	461	118	0.256	10	58	0.344	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.235	0.314	0.348	OK
Joey Ortiz	3B	118	369	98	0.266	9	46	0.324	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.271	0.330	0.386	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	38	8	6	6	3	9	0.211

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	162	647	184	0.284	26	84	0.352	5	3	1	1	0	2	0	0.333	0.240	0.296	0.402	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	162	633	162	0.256	26	89	0.304	5	5	3	1	3	0	1	0.600	0.250	0.288	0.364	OK
Manny Machado	3B	163	605	134	0.221	31	94	0.310	5	4	0	0	1	0	1	0.000	0.246	0.342	0.456	OK
Ty France	1B	132	459	137	0.298	21	74	0.364	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.275	0.320	0.410	OK
Austin Hays	DH	28	64	18	0.281	2	7	0.292	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.141	0.165	0.211	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	158	537	126	0.235	14	59	0.334	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.259	0.354	0.399	OK
Luis Campusano	C	73	224	60	0.268	8	31	0.364	4	4	1	0	1	0	0	0.250	0.249	0.336	0.375	OK
Jake Cronenworth	2B	113	392	88	0.224	8	43	0.306	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.211	0.273	0.354	OK
Samad Taylor	LF	51	159	50	0.314	2	18	0.385	4	3	0	2	0	1	0	0.000	0.260	0.325	0.336	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	37	7	5	5	3	8	0.189

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Robert Gasser	Starter	21	105.6	4.01	1.231	8.8	103	3.2	3	2	2	1	4	64	3.2	4	2
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	25	18.0	6.00	1.944	7.5	15	1.0	0	1	1	1	1	14	1.0	1	1
Aaron Ashby	Setup Man	77	84.3	3.31	1.412	12.6	118	1.1	1	1	1	0	2	19	1.1	2	1
Trevor Megill	Closer	64	62.6	2.01	0.863	10.2	71	4.0	3	1	0	1	1	67	4.0	1	0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Walker Buehler	Starter	32	148.3	4.79	1.396	8.0	131	3.2	4	3	3	3	4	75	3.2	4	3
Bradgley Rodriguez	Long Reliever	70	68.5	1.97	1.124	11.6	88	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.1	1	0
Jason Adam	Setup Man	41	34.1	2.64	1.261	5.8	22	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Adrian Morejon	Closer	78	80.2	3.14	1.209	12.2	109	4.0	4	3	2	0	3	70	4.0	3	2

Game Summary

MIL wins 6-5

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

TB 98-64 (4.54 RPG / 4.01 RA)

3 - 4

NYY 93-68 (4.59 RPG / 3.73 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 4-3 TARGET: TB 3 - 4 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 54.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	6
NYY	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	1	4	9

TB Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff6

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

TB Season Quality

Record98-64

Win%0.605

Run Diff86

RD/Game0.531

NYY Season Quality

Record93-68

Win%0.578

Run Diff138

RD/Game0.857

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1757; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

Base historical_ml 3.95966 - 5.56852 → published capped_target 3 - 4. Net change: TB -0.96 runs, NYY -1.57 runs across 7 stages, 2 of which moved the target.

KPI layer: applied. Blend weights in force: away_runs 0.34, home_runs 0.38. Continuous expectation behind the integers: TB 3.463, NYY 4.200. Candidate 20261007T091423Z_47b9db81.

#	Stage	TB - NYY	Δ TB	Δ NYY	Justification recorded by the stage
1	`historical_ml`	3.95966 - 5.56852	0	0	Base ML historical model prediction
2	`variance_applied`	4 - 6	+0.04	+0.43	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3	`enhanced_prediction`	3 - 4	-1	-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4	`kpi_layer`	3 - 4	0	0	all gates passed; blend published
5	`embedded_savant_run_environment`	3 - 4	0	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6	`fundamental_edge_target_review`	3 - 4	0	0	target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile
7	`capped_target`	3 - 4	0	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8	`simulation_result`	3 - 4	0	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	155	618	182	0.294	22	85	0.360	5	4	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.266	0.321	0.376	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	156	586	162	0.276	23	93	0.358	4	3	1	2	1	1	0	0.333	0.253	0.325	0.431	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	163	618	171	0.277	42	101	0.363	4	4	2	0	1	0	0	0.500	0.264	0.347	0.484	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	LF	72	238	62	0.261	14	34	0.322	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.264	0.323	0.475	OK
Ryan Vilade	RF	89	241	59	0.245	11	42	0.319	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	0.333	0.154	0.230	0.269	OK
Liam Hicks	C	43	131	37	0.282	4	21	0.375	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.239	0.313	0.358	OK
Jonny DeLuca	CF	105	353	94	0.266	11	50	0.300	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	0.250	0.264	0.300	0.451	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	120	352	83	0.236	10	59	0.329	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.247	0.332	0.373	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	119	373	81	0.217	2	36	0.304	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.196	0.279	0.280	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	3	3	4	8	0.182

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trent Grisham	CF	118	418	88	0.211	17	58	0.304	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.197	0.280	0.311	OK
Ben Rice	DH	154	575	156	0.271	44	101	0.373	5	5	1	0	1	0	1	0.200	0.336	0.424	0.830	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	46	171	45	0.263	8	17	0.298	4	4	2	2	1	0	0	0.500	0.239	0.272	0.446	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	133	503	133	0.264	18	77	0.336	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.226	0.288	0.386	OK
George Lombard Jr.	SS	45	164	40	0.244	7	23	0.288	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.236	0.271	0.383	OK
Austin Wells	C	123	345	67	0.194	14	36	0.293	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.245	0.340	0.389	OK
Anthony Volpe	2B	68	220	54	0.245	2	26	0.322	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	0.250	0.245	0.315	0.335	OK
Spencer Jones	RF	86	273	65	0.238	11	40	0.303	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.226	0.287	0.380	OK
José Caballero	3B	124	409	94	0.230	14	50	0.288	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.212	0.270	0.330	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	36	9	4	4	2	8	0.250

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nick Martinez	Starter	31	175.8	3.17	1.121	5.6	109	4.1	4	2	2	2	4	80	4.1	4	2
Cam Booser	Setup Man	43	33.4	2.43	0.958	12.1	45	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	12	0.2	1	0
Bryan Baker	Closer	65	62.7	1.29	0.861	9.3	65	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Cole Sulser	Middle Reliever	50	51.9	4.16	1.291	9.7	56	2.2	4	2	2	0	2	58	2.2	2	2

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Max Fried	Starter	21	115.4	2.81	1.005	8.6	110	5.1	4	2	2	3	7	92	5.1	7	2
Ryan Weathers	Middle Reliever	27	133.4	3.71	1.267	9.6	143	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9	1.0	0	0
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	65	79.3	1.70	1.185	7.8	69	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	23	1.1	0	1
John Schreiber	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	13	11.6	1.55	1.034	4.7	6	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	25	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-3

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox

CLE Recent Form

CHW Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

CHW Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves

LAD Recent Form

ATL Recent Form

LAD Season Quality

ATL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres

MIL Recent Form

SD Recent Form

MIL Season Quality

SD Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

TB Recent Form

NYY Recent Form

TB Season Quality

NYY Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary