MLB Predictions — October 5, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
CHW @ CLE	4 - 5	4 - 5	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 5-4	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYY @ TB	4 - 2	4 - 2	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 4-2	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

CHW 84-78 (4.79 RPG / 4.44 RA)

4 - 5

CLE 85-77 (4.19 RPG / 4.12 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 5-4 TARGET: CHW 4 - 5 CLE (CLE) Confidence: 51.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	4	7
CLE	0	2	0	0	0	0	3	0	x	5	7

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs6.5

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff22

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.3

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff21

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

CHW Season Quality

Record84-78

Win%0.519

Run Diff56

RD/Game0.346

CLE Season Quality

Record85-77

Win%0.525

Run Diff11

RD/Game0.068

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1605; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

Base historical_ml 4.05279 - 4.65771 → published capped_target 4 - 5. Net change: CHW -0.05 runs, CLE +0.34 runs across 7 stages, 1 of which moved the target.

KPI layer: applied. Blend weights in force: away_runs 0.78, home_runs 0.44. Continuous expectation behind the integers: CHW 3.716, CLE 5.272. Candidate 20261005T125039Z_f5114dc0.

#	Stage	CHW - CLE	Δ CHW	Δ CLE	Justification recorded by the stage
1	`historical_ml`	4.05279 - 4.65771	0	0	Base ML historical model prediction
2	`variance_applied`	4 - 5	-0.05	+0.34	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3	`enhanced_prediction`	4 - 5	0	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4	`kpi_layer`	4 - 5	0	0	all gates passed; blend published
5	`embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 5	0	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6	`fundamental_edge_target_review`	4 - 5	0	0	target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile
7	`capped_target`	4 - 5	0	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8	`simulation_result`	4 - 5	0	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Sam Antonacci	LF	142	488	135	0.277	8	50	0.371	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.287	0.343	0.406	OK
Kyle Teel	C	41	132	28	0.212	5	27	0.323	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.230	0.308	0.330	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	161	599	148	0.247	33	93	0.360	4	3	1	0	2	1	2	0.333	0.207	0.342	0.377	OK
Munetaka Murakami	1B	130	466	97	0.208	36	80	0.346	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.211	0.331	0.481	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	143	424	102	0.241	15	79	0.305	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.188	0.284	0.350	OK
Tristan Peters	CF	150	446	119	0.267	12	57	0.335	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.193	0.253	0.305	OK
Braden Montgomery	RF	95	334	75	0.225	6	38	0.309	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.232	0.299	0.339	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	156	577	160	0.277	17	67	0.350	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.286	0.351	0.476	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	156	577	115	0.199	32	89	0.285	4	3	0	1	0	1	2	0.000	0.197	0.264	0.385	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	4	4	3	10	0.206

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	CF	146	529	149	0.282	3	32	0.380	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.283	0.389	0.356	OK
José Ramírez	3B	122	464	108	0.233	12	53	0.320	4	2	1	1	1	2	0	0.500	0.224	0.306	0.329	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	129	486	138	0.284	16	66	0.359	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.229	0.306	0.400	OK
Jo Adell	DH	48	181	43	0.238	7	31	0.319	4	4	0	0	1	0	1	0.000	0.235	0.285	0.393	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	40	131	30	0.229	5	26	0.280	4	4	2	0	1	0	1	0.500	0.171	0.238	0.283	OK
Angel Martínez	LF	108	393	99	0.252	18	62	0.287	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.217	0.241	0.423	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	122	444	107	0.241	15	55	0.329	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.230	0.303	0.395	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	73	219	53	0.242	9	32	0.302	4	4	0	1	0	0	2	0.000	0.167	0.223	0.305	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	150	524	132	0.252	13	67	0.312	4	4	1	0	1	0	0	0.250	0.267	0.322	0.462	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	7	5	5	4	7	0.219

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Anthony Kay	Starter	35	154.4	4.55	1.425	7.5	129	4.2	3	2	1	2	3	70	4.2	3	1
Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	53	73.6	3.18	1.277	9.5	78	2.0	3	3	3	2	2	51	2.0	2	3
Jordan Hicks	Setup Man	42	33.7	4.54	1.780	13.1	49	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	22	1.1	2	0

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gavin Williams	Starter	32	180.6	3.84	1.135	12.4	248	5.2	6	4	4	3	7	105	5.2	7	4
Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever	68	44.6	3.83	1.659	11.1	55	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9	1.0	1	0
Daniel Espino	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	15	14.6	4.32	1.438	15.4	25	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	59	39.5	3.19	1.342	17.8	78	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	12	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

CLE wins 5-4

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

NYY 93-68 (4.59 RPG / 3.73 RA)

4 - 2

TB 98-64 (4.54 RPG / 4.01 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 4-2 TARGET: NYY 4 - 2 TB (NYY) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	0	4	8
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	5

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

TB Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff6

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

NYY Season Quality

Record93-68

Win%0.578

Run Diff138

RD/Game0.857

TB Season Quality

Record98-64

Win%0.605

Run Diff86

RD/Game0.531

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1757; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

Base historical_ml 4.86497 - 2.99685 → published capped_target 4 - 2. Net change: NYY -0.86 runs, TB -1 runs across 7 stages, 3 of which moved the target.

KPI layer: applied. Blend weights in force: away_runs 0.78, home_runs 0.44. Continuous expectation behind the integers: NYY 4.333, TB 3.051. Candidate 20261005T125039Z_f5114dc0.

#	Stage	NYY - TB	Δ NYY	Δ TB	Justification recorded by the stage
1	`historical_ml`	4.86497 - 2.99685	0	0	Base ML historical model prediction
2	`variance_applied`	5 - 3	+0.14	+0	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3	`enhanced_prediction`	4 - 3	-1	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
4	`kpi_layer`	4 - 3	0	0	all gates passed; blend published
5	`embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 2	0	-1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6	`fundamental_edge_target_review`	4 - 2	0	0	target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile
7	`capped_target`	4 - 2	0	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8	`simulation_result`	4 - 2	0	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ben Rice	DH	153	572	154	0.269	42	99	0.370	5	5	1	0	0	0	3	0.200	0.282	0.370	0.537	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	132	499	132	0.265	18	77	0.337	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.215	0.275	0.372	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	45	167	45	0.269	8	17	0.305	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.258	0.294	0.472	OK
Spencer Jones	RF	85	269	65	0.242	11	40	0.307	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.233	0.294	0.389	OK
George Lombard Jr.	SS	44	160	40	0.250	7	23	0.295	4	3	1	0	1	1	0	0.333	0.255	0.291	0.431	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	135	468	110	0.235	19	55	0.314	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.223	0.315	0.349	OK
Trent Grisham	CF	117	415	88	0.212	17	58	0.306	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.208	0.293	0.333	OK
Austin Wells	C	122	342	66	0.193	14	36	0.293	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.237	0.338	0.408	OK
Ryan McMahon	3B	114	327	70	0.214	11	42	0.277	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.203	0.264	0.345	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	8	4	4	3	9	0.229

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	154	614	181	0.295	22	85	0.360	4	4	1	0	1	0	0	0.250	0.273	0.323	0.376	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	155	581	160	0.275	23	93	0.358	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.246	0.323	0.443	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	162	614	169	0.275	42	101	0.362	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.241	0.330	0.434	OK
Liam Hicks	C	42	128	37	0.289	4	20	0.383	4	4	1	0	1	0	0	0.250	0.266	0.342	0.385	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	148	575	175	0.304	0	38	0.330	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.252	0.276	0.292	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	72	238	62	0.261	14	34	0.322	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.271	0.329	0.459	OK
Jonny DeLuca	CF	104	349	93	0.266	11	50	0.301	4	4	0	1	0	0	1	0.000	0.265	0.308	0.447	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	119	348	82	0.236	10	57	0.330	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.230	0.319	0.346	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	118	369	81	0.220	2	36	0.306	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.195	0.279	0.274	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	34	5	2	2	1	7	0.147

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cam Schlittler	Starter	34	195.8	1.93	0.924	11.4	249	5.2	1	0	0	1	5	74	5.2	5	0
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	64	78.3	1.72	1.201	7.9	69	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	24	1.1	1	0
John Schreiber	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	12	10.6	1.70	1.132	4.2	5	1.0	2	1	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	83	62.9	2.72	1.526	14.0	98	1.0	2	1	0	0	1	22	1.0	1	0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Freddy Peralta	Starter	10	53.7	3.35	1.043	7.2	43	5.1	2	1	1	1	6	73	5.1	6	1
Cole Sulser	Setup Man	50	51.9	4.16	1.291	9.7	56	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Bryan Baker	Closer	64	61.7	1.31	0.875	9.5	65	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	23	1.0	0	1
Steven Matz	Middle Reliever	36	77.3	5.71	1.281	7.1	61	1.2	4	2	2	1	2	39	1.2	2	2

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-2

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

CHW Recent Form

CLE Recent Form

CHW Season Quality

CLE Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

NYY Recent Form

TB Recent Form

NYY Season Quality

TB Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary