| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ LAD | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | LAD | LAD | LAD wins 5-4 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| CHW @ CLE | 4 - 2 | 4 - 2 | CHW | CHW | CHW wins 4-2 | 52% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| NYY @ TB | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | TB | TB | TB wins 4-3 | 52% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| SD @ MIL | 4 - 6 | 4 - 6 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 6-4 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| LAD | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | x | 5 | 6 |
Quality edge: 0.6096; margin adjustment: 0.256; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Drake Baldwin | DH | 140 | 554 | 156 | 0.282 | 25 | 80 | 0.355 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 0.327 | 0.436 | OK |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | 109 | 414 | 105 | 0.254 | 20 | 55 | 0.347 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.212 | 0.302 | 0.380 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 164 | 617 | 149 | 0.241 | 23 | 76 | 0.300 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.210 | 0.272 | 0.386 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 164 | 630 | 157 | 0.249 | 41 | 94 | 0.318 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.224 | 0.290 | 0.495 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 157 | 600 | 180 | 0.300 | 27 | 90 | 0.325 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.326 | 0.346 | 0.520 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | LF | 155 | 578 | 160 | 0.277 | 12 | 73 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.253 | 0.288 | 0.380 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 161 | 568 | 125 | 0.220 | 20 | 75 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.277 | 0.387 | OK |
| Sean Murphy | C | 34 | 113 | 21 | 0.186 | 3 | 10 | 0.264 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.185 | 0.267 | 0.290 | OK |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SS | 47 | 132 | 15 | 0.114 | 0 | 9 | 0.220 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.096 | 0.212 | 0.154 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Mookie Betts | SS | 121 | 475 | 123 | 0.259 | 23 | 69 | 0.324 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.321 | 0.450 | OK |
| Shohei Ohtani | DH | 134 | 518 | 142 | 0.274 | 30 | 79 | 0.376 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.358 | 0.469 | OK |
| Will Smith | C | 70 | 235 | 61 | 0.260 | 10 | 33 | 0.352 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.320 | 0.396 | 0.507 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 152 | 575 | 166 | 0.289 | 16 | 68 | 0.363 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.248 | 0.314 | 0.368 | OK |
| Teoscar Hernández | LF | 123 | 438 | 117 | 0.267 | 16 | 63 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.318 | 0.434 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 150 | 535 | 125 | 0.234 | 17 | 70 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.318 | 0.388 | OK |
| Andy Pages | CF | 132 | 507 | 139 | 0.274 | 23 | 84 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.281 | 0.345 | 0.506 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 147 | 484 | 121 | 0.250 | 29 | 76 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.336 | 0.453 | OK |
| Tommy Edman | 2B | 80 | 287 | 70 | 0.244 | 8 | 40 | 0.323 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.303 | 0.417 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 30 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 0.200 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dylan Dodd | Starter | 49 | 44.5 | 3.03 | 1.034 | 10.7 | 53 | 5.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 104 | 5.2 | 7 | 3 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 61 | 59.9 | 2.55 | 1.119 | 9.6 | 64 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Didier Fuentes | Setup Man | 60 | 69.6 | 2.72 | 1.207 | 12.0 | 93 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tarik Skubal | Starter | 10 | 61.3 | 2.64 | 1.060 | 10.3 | 70 | 6.1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 111 | 6.1 | 7 | 1 |
| Tanner Scott | Closer | 69 | 58.3 | 2.93 | 1.081 | 12.7 | 82 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Justin Wrobleski | Setup Man | 28 | 137.9 | 3.72 | 1.160 | 7.7 | 118 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Evan Phillips | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 31 | 22.5 | 4.00 | 1.244 | 13.2 | 33 | 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 |
LAD wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
Quality edge: -0.1605; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 155 | 573 | 160 | 0.279 | 17 | 67 | 0.352 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.342 | 0.399 | 0.561 | OK |
| Randal Grichuk | LF | 99 | 231 | 69 | 0.299 | 14 | 42 | 0.328 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.286 | 0.317 | 0.549 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 160 | 597 | 147 | 0.246 | 33 | 93 | 0.358 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.323 | 0.383 | OK |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1B | 129 | 462 | 95 | 0.206 | 35 | 78 | 0.345 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.211 | 0.331 | 0.482 | OK |
| Tommy Pham | DH | 7 | 13 | 3 | 0.231 | 1 | 3 | 0.412 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.135 | 0.250 | 0.226 | OK |
| Brenton Doyle | CF | 32 | 89 | 23 | 0.258 | 4 | 9 | 0.258 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.279 | 0.417 | OK |
| Kyle Teel | C | 40 | 129 | 28 | 0.217 | 5 | 27 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.321 | 0.377 | OK |
| Braden Montgomery | RF | 94 | 331 | 75 | 0.227 | 6 | 38 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.246 | 0.312 | 0.355 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 155 | 574 | 113 | 0.197 | 32 | 88 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.155 | 0.226 | 0.329 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 37 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0.189 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Steven Kwan | CF | 145 | 526 | 149 | 0.283 | 3 | 32 | 0.381 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.290 | 0.394 | 0.363 | OK |
| José Ramírez | 3B | 121 | 461 | 108 | 0.234 | 12 | 53 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.220 | 0.293 | 0.326 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | RF | 128 | 482 | 138 | 0.286 | 16 | 66 | 0.362 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.325 | 0.436 | OK |
| Jo Adell | DH | 47 | 177 | 43 | 0.243 | 7 | 31 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.295 | 0.400 | OK |
| Angel Martínez | LF | 107 | 389 | 99 | 0.254 | 18 | 62 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.229 | 0.253 | 0.446 | OK |
| David Fry | 1B | 81 | 182 | 37 | 0.203 | 8 | 20 | 0.296 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.288 | 0.388 | OK |
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 121 | 440 | 106 | 0.241 | 15 | 55 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.232 | 0.307 | 0.388 | OK |
| Austin Hedges | C | 74 | 215 | 53 | 0.247 | 6 | 25 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.294 | 0.347 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 149 | 522 | 132 | 0.253 | 13 | 67 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.277 | 0.323 | 0.474 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0.143 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Hagen Smith | Starter | 18 | 28.2 | 0.96 | 0.993 | 13.4 | 42 | 5.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 77 | 5.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Grant Taylor | Closer | 41 | 51.9 | 2.60 | 1.118 | 13.2 | 76 | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Bryan Hudson | Setup Man | 66 | 57.4 | 2.98 | 1.324 | 9.3 | 59 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Newcomb | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 53 | 73.6 | 3.18 | 1.277 | 9.5 | 78 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 42 | 33.7 | 4.54 | 1.780 | 13.1 | 49 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Huascar Brazobán | Middle Reliever | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Parker Messick | Starter | 32 | 179.8 | 2.65 | 1.101 | 9.7 | 193 | 6.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 101 | 6.0 | 5 | 3 |
| Cade Smith | Closer | 69 | 69.1 | 2.08 | 1.027 | 13.9 | 107 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Setup Man | 67 | 51.0 | 3.35 | 1.431 | 10.1 | 57 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erik Sabrowski | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 58 | 38.3 | 3.05 | 1.332 | 17.9 | 76 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
CHW wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 8 |
Quality edge: -0.1757; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ben Rice | DH | 152 | 569 | 154 | 0.271 | 42 | 99 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.286 | 0.370 | 0.548 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 131 | 495 | 132 | 0.267 | 18 | 77 | 0.339 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.238 | 0.301 | 0.405 | OK |
| Luis García Jr. | 1B | 44 | 164 | 45 | 0.274 | 8 | 17 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.294 | 0.491 | OK |
| Spencer Jones | RF | 84 | 266 | 65 | 0.244 | 11 | 40 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.297 | 0.398 | OK |
| George Lombard Jr. | SS | 43 | 157 | 40 | 0.255 | 7 | 23 | 0.300 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.274 | 0.310 | 0.470 | OK |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 134 | 466 | 110 | 0.236 | 19 | 55 | 0.314 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.264 | 0.344 | 0.395 | OK |
| Trent Grisham | CF | 116 | 412 | 88 | 0.214 | 17 | 58 | 0.308 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.232 | 0.321 | 0.359 | OK |
| Austin Wells | C | 121 | 339 | 65 | 0.192 | 14 | 36 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.324 | 0.385 | OK |
| Ryan McMahon | 3B | 113 | 325 | 70 | 0.215 | 11 | 42 | 0.279 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.283 | 0.378 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 153 | 610 | 180 | 0.295 | 22 | 85 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.271 | 0.320 | 0.374 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 154 | 577 | 159 | 0.276 | 22 | 92 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.323 | 0.384 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 161 | 612 | 169 | 0.276 | 42 | 101 | 0.361 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.261 | 0.340 | 0.469 | OK |
| Liam Hicks | C | 41 | 125 | 36 | 0.288 | 4 | 20 | 0.379 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.259 | 0.326 | 0.363 | OK |
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 147 | 571 | 175 | 0.306 | 0 | 38 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.278 | 0.301 | 0.321 | OK |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | RF | 71 | 235 | 61 | 0.260 | 14 | 34 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.311 | 0.437 | OK |
| Jonny DeLuca | CF | 103 | 346 | 93 | 0.269 | 11 | 50 | 0.303 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.277 | 0.319 | 0.464 | OK |
| Richie Palacios | 2B | 118 | 345 | 81 | 0.235 | 10 | 57 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.234 | 0.323 | 0.377 | OK |
| Taylor Walls | SS | 117 | 366 | 81 | 0.221 | 2 | 36 | 0.309 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.302 | 0.302 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Gerrit Cole | Starter | 22 | 124.2 | 3.70 | 1.127 | 9.5 | 131 | 5.2 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 104 | 5.2 | 6 | 3 |
| David Bednar | Closer | 65 | 65.9 | 2.59 | 1.108 | 10.5 | 77 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 82 | 62.8 | 2.72 | 1.513 | 14.0 | 98 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Drew Rasmussen | Starter | 30 | 170.6 | 2.69 | 0.920 | 9.2 | 174 | 6.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 103 | 6.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Bryan Baker | Closer | 63 | 60.7 | 1.33 | 0.890 | 9.3 | 63 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kelly | Setup Man | 71 | 62.7 | 2.87 | 1.053 | 9.0 | 63 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Booser | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 42 | 33.3 | 2.43 | 0.931 | 12.2 | 45 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
TB wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| MIL | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | x | 6 | 8 |
Quality edge: 0.723; margin adjustment: 0.3037; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF | 159 | 633 | 183 | 0.289 | 26 | 83 | 0.357 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.286 | 0.346 | 0.490 | OK |
| Dustin Harris | LF | 27 | 96 | 30 | 0.312 | 0 | 14 | 0.346 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 0.310 | 0.373 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 160 | 596 | 131 | 0.220 | 31 | 93 | 0.306 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.234 | 0.306 | 0.447 | OK |
| Ty France | 1B | 129 | 448 | 134 | 0.299 | 21 | 72 | 0.364 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.301 | 0.352 | 0.451 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 159 | 620 | 160 | 0.258 | 26 | 89 | 0.307 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.315 | 0.358 | 0.460 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 155 | 528 | 124 | 0.235 | 14 | 59 | 0.334 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.303 | 0.391 | 0.501 | OK |
| Ethan Salas | C | 17 | 40 | 10 | 0.250 | 2 | 6 | 0.262 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.278 | 0.300 | 0.414 | OK |
| Luis Campusano | DH | 71 | 219 | 58 | 0.265 | 8 | 30 | 0.359 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.249 | 0.334 | 0.391 | OK |
| Jake Cronenworth | 2B | 110 | 383 | 86 | 0.225 | 7 | 41 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.210 | 0.281 | 0.326 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 37 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 125 | 516 | 152 | 0.295 | 25 | 75 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.336 | 0.391 | 0.530 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 147 | 571 | 157 | 0.275 | 21 | 101 | 0.370 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.287 | 0.364 | 0.509 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 145 | 561 | 151 | 0.269 | 18 | 93 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.249 | 0.315 | 0.368 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | 1B | 138 | 468 | 124 | 0.265 | 25 | 84 | 0.385 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.236 | 0.350 | 0.413 | OK |
| Christian Yelich | DH | 114 | 427 | 98 | 0.230 | 12 | 57 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.300 | 0.367 | OK |
| Cooper Pratt | SS | 70 | 222 | 62 | 0.279 | 3 | 33 | 0.345 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.283 | 0.354 | 0.360 | OK |
| Luis Lara | RF | 55 | 188 | 46 | 0.245 | 1 | 26 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.293 | 0.307 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 137 | 450 | 116 | 0.258 | 10 | 58 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.326 | 0.374 | OK |
| Joey Ortiz | 3B | 116 | 363 | 97 | 0.267 | 9 | 46 | 0.326 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.277 | 0.336 | 0.412 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Robbie Ray | Starter | 9 | 42.3 | 5.11 | 1.560 | 7.0 | 33 | 5.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 97 | 5.0 | 4 | 3 |
| Mason Miller | Closer | 67 | 67.5 | 1.73 | 0.948 | 17.5 | 131 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Adrian Morejon | Setup Man | 77 | 78.2 | 3.11 | 1.202 | 12.3 | 107 | 0.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 67 | 66.1 | 1.91 | 1.104 | 11.3 | 83 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob Misiorowski | Starter | 30 | 173.5 | 1.82 | 0.807 | 13.1 | 252 | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 116 | 6.0 | 6 | 1 |
| Trevor Megill | Closer | 62 | 60.5 | 2.08 | 0.876 | 10.3 | 69 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Abner Uribe | Setup Man | 61 | 54.9 | 2.13 | 1.111 | 10.2 | 62 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 75 | 82.1 | 3.40 | 1.425 | 12.7 | 116 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
MIL wins 6-4