MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

September 29, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (4 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
BOS @ NYY2 - 42 - 4NYYNYYNYY wins 4-254%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ SD4 - 54 - 5SDSDSD wins 5-451%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHW @ HOU6 - 56 - 5CHWCHWCHW wins 6-553%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PHI @ ATL2 - 32 - 3ATLATLATL wins 3-251%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

BOS 87-75 (4.25 RPG / 3.77 RA)
2 - 4
NYY 93-68 (4.59 RPG / 3.73 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 4-2 TARGET: BOS 2 - 4 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
BOS00000001129
NYY01010110x46

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs2.1
Avg Allowed2.5
Run Diff-4
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

BOS Season Quality

Record87-75
Win%0.537
Run Diff78
RD/Game0.481

NYY Season Quality

Record93-68
Win%0.578
Run Diff138
RD/Game0.857

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3398; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Roman AnthonyDH 5521252 0.245 5150.339 54111 10 0.250 0.245 0.331 0.407 OK
Adley RutschmanC 3211726 0.222 5130.278 55100 01 0.200 0.267 0.326 0.466 OK
Willson Contreras1B 126439121 0.276 27810.387 44111 02 0.250 0.237 0.326 0.449 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 154584146 0.250 23750.330 44100 01 0.250 0.205 0.280 0.348 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 133527149 0.283 15670.320 44100 02 0.250 0.263 0.294 0.372 OK
Nick Sogard2B 6423559 0.251 5180.340 43100 10 0.333 0.243 0.322 0.341 OK
Jarren DuranLF 148545112 0.206 20630.265 44000 02 0.000 0.153 0.218 0.245 OK
Trevor StorySS 6425159 0.235 5290.271 44100 02 0.250 0.192 0.230 0.335 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 147497120 0.241 13610.324 44200 02 0.500 0.210 0.282 0.302 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38369 22 212 0.250

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Paul Goldschmidt1B 9734487 0.253 18510.306 44110 01 0.250 0.246 0.294 0.410 OK
Ben RiceDH 150560149 0.266 40930.368 43000 12 0.000 0.286 0.379 0.542 OK
Heliot RamosRF 3711422 0.193 4120.306 44111 00 0.250 0.247 0.301 0.415 OK
Cody BellingerLF 129486129 0.265 17730.339 44100 01 0.250 0.231 0.301 0.389 OK
George Lombard Jr.SS 4114936 0.242 7220.290 43212 10 0.667 0.235 0.275 0.437 OK
Amed Rosario3B 8122354 0.242 10330.275 44111 02 0.250 0.254 0.285 0.369 OK
Anthony Volpe2B 6721753 0.244 2260.322 44000 01 0.000 0.241 0.312 0.332 OK
Spencer JonesCF 8225863 0.244 11400.310 32000 10 0.000 0.222 0.277 0.379 OK
Austin WellsC 11933362 0.186 14320.291 32000 11 0.000 0.192 0.314 0.398 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34306 44 48 0.200

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Payton TolleStarter 26145.43.09 1.12110.6171 5.242237103 5.2 7 2
Aroldis ChapmanCloser 5251.21.41 1.05512.571 2.02221035 2.0 0 2
Erik MillerSetup Man 1918.23.46 1.42914.329 0.1000014 0.1 1 0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cam SchlittlerStarter 33189.71.99 0.93811.3239 6.01002999 6.0 9 0
David BednarCloser 6464.92.63 1.10910.576 1.02000319 1.0 3 0
Brent HeadrickSetup Man 8162.72.73 1.51514.198 1.03110032 1.0 0 1
Paul BlackburnMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6275.91.90 1.2258.269 1.03110022 1.0 0 1

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-2


Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres

CHC 89-73 (5.25 RPG / 4.34 RA)
4 - 5
SD 91-71 (4.46 RPG / 4.2 RA)
WINNER: SD wins 5-4 TARGET: CHC 4 - 5 SD (SD) Confidence: 50.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CHC00001201048
SD22001000x59

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

SD Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs6.3
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff18
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

CHC Season Quality

Record89-73
Win%0.549
Run Diff147
RD/Game0.907

SD Season Quality

Record91-71
Win%0.562
Run Diff41
RD/Game0.253

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2355; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 160618174 0.282 451070.374 55100 02 0.200 0.295 0.378 0.523 OK
Alex BregmanDH 154604161 0.267 28930.357 54100 10 0.250 0.270 0.354 0.504 OK
Michael Busch1B 158593144 0.243 19750.352 44210 00 0.500 0.266 0.356 0.399 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 141540147 0.272 26860.369 43112 11 0.333 0.285 0.368 0.478 OK
Ian HappLF 150539118 0.219 24680.323 44111 00 0.250 0.192 0.275 0.359 OK
Nico Hoerner2B 157622164 0.264 8720.315 43000 11 0.000 0.244 0.287 0.314 OK
Pedro Ramirez3B 7623863 0.265 6320.322 44000 01 0.000 0.258 0.311 0.379 OK
Carson KellyC 11538098 0.258 10570.335 44111 01 0.250 0.220 0.282 0.318 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 12242089 0.212 17620.298 44100 00 0.250 0.193 0.280 0.348 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38358 44 36 0.229

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 157626181 0.289 25820.357 55111 01 0.200 0.302 0.359 0.468 OK
Samad TaylorLF 4715248 0.316 2180.390 43000 11 0.000 0.216 0.295 0.309 OK
Manny Machado3B 158589128 0.217 30910.303 44000 03 0.000 0.224 0.297 0.440 OK
Ty France1B 127440130 0.295 21720.361 43310 10 1.000 0.275 0.328 0.425 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 157613156 0.254 26870.303 44110 02 0.250 0.283 0.322 0.431 OK
Austin HaysDH 245718 0.316 270.328 44100 00 0.250 0.347 0.366 0.465 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 153520120 0.231 13570.332 44112 01 0.250 0.265 0.370 0.424 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 10837785 0.225 7410.308 43000 02 0.000 0.224 0.295 0.336 OK
Luis CampusanoC 7021557 0.265 8300.360 43212 10 0.667 0.165 0.263 0.273 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37339 55 310 0.273

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Matthew BoydStarter 22123.44.01 1.2407.096 6.095517117 6.0 7 5
Jacob WebbCloser 6860.03.75 1.40011.073 1.00002221 1.0 2 0
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 3127.13.65 1.21810.030 1.00000113 1.0 1 0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael KingStarter 32182.23.26 1.1967.9159 5.25332597 5.2 5 3
Mason MillerCloser 6666.51.76 0.94717.5129 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Adrian MorejonSetup Man 7676.23.19 1.22012.6107 1.02111023 1.0 0 1
Bradgley RodriguezMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6664.91.94 1.10911.281 1.10000017 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

SD wins 5-4


Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros

CHW 84-78 (4.79 RPG / 4.44 RA)
6 - 5
HOU 81-81 (4.53 RPG / 4.73 RA)
WINNER: CHW wins 6-5 TARGET: CHW 6 - 5 HOU (CHW) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CHW00000006068
HOU40000001054

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs6.5
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff22
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.9
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff22
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

CHW Season Quality

Record84-78
Win%0.519
Run Diff56
RD/Game0.346

HOU Season Quality

Record81-81
Win%0.500
Run Diff-32
RD/Game-0.198

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4495; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 139480133 0.277 8480.370 44212 00 0.500 0.307 0.359 0.417 OK
Kyle TeelC 3811925 0.210 5260.326 44111 02 0.250 0.258 0.348 0.412 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 158588147 0.250 33930.362 44000 02 0.000 0.247 0.368 0.439 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 12745494 0.207 35770.347 44110 01 0.250 0.224 0.344 0.520 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 141421101 0.240 15780.302 44112 00 0.250 0.168 0.248 0.346 OK
Tristan PetersCF 147437116 0.265 12560.334 44210 00 0.500 0.148 0.209 0.262 OK
Braden MontgomeryRF 9232373 0.226 6380.312 43000 11 0.000 0.262 0.328 0.381 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 153566156 0.276 16630.349 44000 01 0.000 0.238 0.306 0.406 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 153568112 0.197 31870.282 44111 00 0.250 0.155 0.218 0.295 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36358 66 17 0.229

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 110447124 0.277 22560.325 44112 00 0.250 0.278 0.303 0.470 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 157563179 0.318 421060.435 44010 01 0.000 0.321 0.416 0.570 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 154558144 0.258 25940.357 43010 12 0.000 0.255 0.335 0.508 OK
Jose Altuve2B 134524131 0.250 16500.305 44112 00 0.250 0.236 0.282 0.340 OK
Yainer DiazC 9234097 0.285 14440.314 43211 11 0.667 0.296 0.313 0.466 OK
Christian Walker1B 154567129 0.228 29870.301 44000 02 0.000 0.255 0.320 0.535 OK
Lucas SpenceCF 175512 0.218 4120.317 33000 01 0.000 0.225 0.312 0.535 OK
Cam SmithRF 148510107 0.210 21550.278 33000 02 0.000 0.203 0.278 0.380 OK
Taylor TrammellLF 9025549 0.192 8220.280 33000 00 0.000 0.133 0.227 0.257 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33314 55 29 0.129

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Hagen SmithStarter 1725.21.07 1.03214.641 5.03111676 5.0 6 1
Grant TaylorCloser 4151.92.60 1.11813.276 1.10331219 1.1 2 3
Sean NewcombSetup Man 5373.63.18 1.2779.578 1.11110020 1.1 0 1
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6657.42.98 1.3249.359 1.10000117 1.1 1 0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
AJ BlubaughStarter 6489.73.91 1.3159.494 5.02000479 5.0 4 0
Josh HaderCloser 4443.50.83 0.71311.455 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Logan VanWeySetup Man 1012.21.48 0.9846.69 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6555.94.19 1.48512.980 1.06661135 1.0 1 6
Bennett SousaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 3323.76.08 2.02512.232 0.2000008 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

CHW wins 6-5


Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

PHI 88-74 (4.4 RPG / 4.31 RA)
2 - 3
ATL 94-69 (4.56 RPG / 3.88 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 3-2 TARGET: PHI 2 - 3 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
PHI10000100028
ATL00000030x315

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.2
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-16
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

PHI Season Quality

Record88-74
Win%0.543
Run Diff15
RD/Game0.093

ATL Season Quality

Record94-68
Win%0.580
Run Diff116
RD/Game0.716

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.559; margin adjustment: 0.2348; applied: True

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trea TurnerSS 154641156 0.243 19580.297 54111 10 0.250 0.241 0.285 0.336 OK
Kyle SchwarberDH 154579134 0.231 44960.351 55100 01 0.200 0.245 0.358 0.419 OK
Bryce HarperRF 160573154 0.269 29870.380 55000 03 0.000 0.259 0.366 0.456 OK
Alec Bohm1B 152567141 0.249 15870.315 43111 10 0.333 0.225 0.291 0.338 OK
Derek HillCF 4511931 0.261 7230.290 43200 11 0.667 0.143 0.179 0.320 OK
Bryan De La CruzLF 307521 0.280 2120.349 44000 01 0.000 0.252 0.323 0.377 OK
Bryson Stott2B 154532136 0.256 10660.335 44100 00 0.250 0.322 0.400 0.483 OK
Edmundo Sosa3B 8223157 0.247 9440.280 44000 02 0.000 0.260 0.278 0.487 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 12141485 0.205 11510.281 43200 11 0.667 0.162 0.230 0.265 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39358 22 49 0.229

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Drake BaldwinC 137541154 0.285 25790.359 55310 00 0.600 0.295 0.343 0.468 OK
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 106405104 0.257 20550.346 55211 01 0.400 0.224 0.294 0.382 OK
Matt Olson1B 161619155 0.250 40910.320 55200 00 0.400 0.244 0.308 0.470 OK
Mauricio DubónLF 152565157 0.278 12730.323 44212 01 0.500 0.288 0.325 0.422 OK
Michael Harris IICF 154589175 0.297 26870.322 44100 00 0.250 0.341 0.359 0.497 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 161608146 0.240 22730.296 44000 02 0.000 0.195 0.246 0.299 OK
Austin Riley3B 158559123 0.220 19720.292 44200 01 0.500 0.200 0.263 0.383 OK
Mike YastrzemskiDH 13235680 0.225 12400.303 44000 01 0.000 0.208 0.283 0.355 OK
Ha-Seong KimSS 4512915 0.116 090.219 44300 01 0.750 0.120 0.223 0.176 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393915 33 07 0.385

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jesús LuzardoStarter 30175.02.93 1.10311.4221 6.282207108 6.2 7 3
Jhoan DuranCloser 6058.41.54 0.95912.984 1.17110024 1.1 0 0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chris SaleStarter 27160.82.18 0.99511.2200 6.152238119 6.1 8 2
Raisel IglesiasCloser 5957.92.64 1.1239.964 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Dylan LeeSetup Man 7058.63.23 1.04111.877 1.01001022 1.0 0 0
Didier FuentesMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5767.32.67 1.18912.291 0.21000111 0.2 1 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 3-2