MLB Predictions — September 25, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
ARI @ SD	6 - 5	6 - 5	ARI	ARI	ARI wins 6-5	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
ATL @ MIA	5 - 4	5 - 4	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 5-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BAL @ NYY	5 - 6	5 - 6	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 6-5	50%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BAL @ NYY	5 - 6	5 - 6	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 6-5	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ BOS	5 - 4	5 - 4	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 5-4	50%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ BOS	3 - 4	3 - 4	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 4-3	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CIN @ TOR	3 - 5	3 - 5	TOR	TOR	TOR wins 5-3	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ KC	4 - 3	4 - 3	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 4-3	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
COL @ CHW	4 - 9	4 - 9	CHW	CHW	CHW wins 9-4	72%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ OAK	5 - 4	5 - 4	HOU	HOU	HOU wins 5-4	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAA @ SEA	4 - 3	4 - 3	LAA	LAA	LAA wins 4-3	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ SF	6 - 2	6 - 2	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 6-2	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ WAS	4 - 5	4 - 5	WAS	WAS	WAS wins 5-4	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ DET	5 - 4	5 - 4	PIT	PIT	PIT wins 5-4	50%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
STL @ MIL	4 - 5	4 - 5	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 5-4	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ PHI	4 - 5	4 - 5	PHI	PHI	PHI wins 5-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TEX @ MIN	4 - 5	4 - 5	MIN	MIN	MIN wins 5-4	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres

ARI 85-74 (4.51 RPG / 4.45 RA)

6 - 5

SD 89-70 (4.4 RPG / 4.14 RA)

WINNER: ARI wins 6-5 TARGET: ARI 6 - 5 SD (ARI) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	0	1	6	10
SD	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	5	11

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.8

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff7

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak5W

SD Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs6.0

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff18

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

ARI Season Quality

Record85-74

Win%0.535

Run Diff10

RD/Game0.063

SD Season Quality

Record89-70

Win%0.560

Run Diff40

RD/Game0.252

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2662; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Lars Nootbaar	LF	36	116	28	0.241	3	10	0.333	5	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.238	0.321	0.355	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	137	549	137	0.250	22	75	0.315	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.250	0.312	0.394	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	128	467	144	0.308	16	81	0.384	5	4	2	1	3	1	1	0.500	0.303	0.362	0.490	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	153	550	143	0.260	9	53	0.364	5	5	2	1	2	0	2	0.400	0.302	0.381	0.391	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	152	565	137	0.242	22	75	0.334	5	4	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.222	0.308	0.438	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	148	520	132	0.254	29	83	0.327	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.310	0.353	0.588	OK
Tim Tawa	1B	92	298	69	0.232	11	41	0.285	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.202	0.259	0.385	OK
Pavin Smith	DH	36	100	19	0.190	3	12	0.268	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.212	0.290	0.362	OK
Jordan Lawlar	CF	38	117	30	0.256	5	15	0.315	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.158	0.186	0.300	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	37	10	6	6	4	9	0.270

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	2B	155	619	179	0.289	25	81	0.357	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.300	0.359	0.508	OK
Dustin Harris	RF	22	77	24	0.312	0	14	0.345	5	4	2	1	2	1	0	0.500	0.265	0.309	0.357	OK
Manny Machado	DH	155	578	125	0.216	29	87	0.304	5	4	2	1	2	1	1	0.500	0.207	0.291	0.389	OK
Ty France	1B	124	429	127	0.296	21	70	0.360	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.261	0.308	0.424	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	155	607	153	0.252	26	86	0.300	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.231	0.268	0.377	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	151	516	117	0.227	12	56	0.327	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.227	0.328	0.341	OK
Luis Campusano	C	68	209	56	0.268	8	29	0.362	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.247	0.324	0.397	OK
Jake Cronenworth	3B	105	367	82	0.223	7	36	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.237	0.301	0.372	OK
Samad Taylor	LF	45	145	47	0.324	2	18	0.400	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.303	0.380	0.442	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	38	11	5	5	3	5	0.289

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brandon Pfaadt	Starter	28	123.2	3.87	1.218	6.4	87	6.0	8	4	4	2	4	116	6.0	4	5
Brandyn Garcia	Closer	36	26.8	2.01	0.784	12.1	36	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Juan Morillo	Setup Man	48	40.4	2.90	1.114	12.3	55	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	40.8	3.09	1.225	7.1	32	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Casey Mize	Starter	9	39.5	6.84	1.671	5.5	24	4.2	5	3	3	2	7	94	4.2	7	3
Mason Miller	Closer	65	65.5	1.37	0.885	17.5	127	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	75	75.2	3.23	1.223	12.6	105	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	26	1.0	0	2
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	65	62.9	2.00	1.113	11.3	79	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	22	1.1	0	0
Jason Adam	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	37	31.0	2.61	1.226	6.4	22	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	23	1.0	2	1

Game Summary

ARI wins 6-5

Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins

ATL 93-68 (4.55 RPG / 3.88 RA)

5 - 4

MIA 79-81 (4.42 RPG / 4.38 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 5-4 TARGET: ATL 5 - 4 MIA (ATL) Confidence: 53.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
ATL	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	1	5	8
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	4	6

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

ATL Season Quality

Record93-66

Win%0.585

Run Diff116

RD/Game0.730

MIA Season Quality

Record78-81

Win%0.491

Run Diff3

RD/Game0.019

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5343; margin adjustment: -0.2244; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drake Baldwin	DH	135	532	151	0.284	24	77	0.360	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.301	0.365	0.466	OK
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	104	396	104	0.263	20	55	0.353	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.288	0.363	0.511	OK
Matt Olson	1B	158	611	154	0.252	40	89	0.322	5	4	3	1	3	1	1	0.750	0.264	0.319	0.498	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	152	581	171	0.294	26	86	0.320	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.300	0.324	0.440	OK
Mauricio Dubón	SS	150	558	155	0.278	11	71	0.323	5	4	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.299	0.342	0.415	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	158	599	146	0.244	22	73	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.206	0.253	0.323	OK
Mike Yastrzemski	LF	129	346	80	0.231	12	40	0.309	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.249	0.318	0.457	OK
Austin Riley	3B	155	548	123	0.224	19	72	0.296	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.229	0.290	0.458	OK
Sean Murphy	C	31	103	17	0.165	3	10	0.246	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.122	0.215	0.217	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	38	8	5	5	3	14	0.211

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Otto Lopez	SS	155	619	188	0.304	11	71	0.348	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.258	0.305	0.398	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	149	509	117	0.230	11	41	0.346	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.257	0.348	0.375	OK
Heriberto Hernández	LF	125	436	98	0.225	24	64	0.308	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.191	0.275	0.315	OK
Javier Sanoja	3B	130	449	132	0.294	10	68	0.329	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.280	0.315	0.452	OK
Griffin Conine	RF	87	273	70	0.256	17	39	0.339	4	2	1	1	0	2	0	0.500	0.165	0.235	0.318	OK
Agustín Ramírez	DH	65	215	51	0.237	5	24	0.312	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.266	0.321	0.408	OK
Deyvison De Los Santos	1B	13	30	5	0.167	0	0	0.194	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.170	0.180	0.249	OK
Joe Mack	C	100	301	70	0.233	13	50	0.280	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.225	0.264	0.334	OK
Jared Serna	2B	10	20	4	0.200	0	2	0.227	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.199	0.237	0.302	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	6	4	4	4	8	0.167

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ray Kerr	Starter	8	14.4	1.87	0.556	6.9	11	5.0	0	0	0	3	5	87	5.0	5	0
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	58	56.9	2.69	1.125	10.1	64	1.2	3	2	2	0	1	30	1.2	1	2
Dylan Lee	Setup Man	69	57.6	3.28	1.042	11.9	76	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	56	66.3	2.44	1.131	12.4	91	1.1	2	2	2	1	0	27	1.1	0	2
Elieser Hernández	Reliever	4	11.0	2.45	1.455	9.0	11	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	0.0	1	0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eury Pérez	Starter	29	147.9	4.20	1.285	9.9	162	5.0	5	1	1	2	6	98	5.0	6	1
Calvin Faucher	Closer	68	59.4	3.79	1.465	10.8	71	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	44	33.6	6.70	1.696	11.2	42	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	23	1.1	1	2
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	64	57.1	3.47	1.278	12.8	81	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	33	1.1	1	0
Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	19	19.8	5.00	1.414	7.7	17	1.1	1	2	2	0	4	20	0.1	4	2

Game Summary

ATL wins 5-4

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees

BAL 79-81 (4.47 RPG / 4.58 RA)

5 - 6

NYY 92-68 (4.58 RPG / 3.74 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 6-5 TARGET: BAL 5 - 6 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R	H
BAL	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	5	10
NYY	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	6	11

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff2

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak3W

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.4

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff18

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

BAL Season Quality

Record78-81

Win%0.491

Run Diff-26

RD/Game-0.164

NYY Season Quality

Record92-67

Win%0.579

Run Diff143

RD/Game0.899

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8719; margin adjustment: 0.3662; applied: True

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Dylan Beavers	RF	97	312	72	0.231	7	38	0.301	6	6	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.204	0.274	0.315	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	156	583	155	0.266	41	110	0.360	6	4	1	1	0	2	2	0.250	0.226	0.309	0.551	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	153	606	136	0.224	23	58	0.310	6	5	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.234	0.310	0.429	OK
Coby Mayo	DH	123	400	91	0.228	24	63	0.294	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.214	0.278	0.427	OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	3B	54	186	49	0.263	10	37	0.308	5	4	3	1	0	1	1	0.750	0.258	0.291	0.515	OK
Colton Cowser	CF	124	330	74	0.224	12	37	0.309	5	5	2	1	2	0	2	0.400	0.241	0.323	0.346	OK
Jeremiah Jackson	2B	86	265	57	0.215	8	37	0.239	5	4	2	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.175	0.194	0.292	OK
Christian Franklin	LF	16	40	5	0.125	0	0	0.255	5	5	1	1	2	0	0	0.200	0.117	0.217	0.204	OK
Carlos Narváez	C	29	73	8	0.110	0	0	0.198	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.136	0.189	0.185	OK
TEAM TOTALS									48	43	10	5	5	5	13	0.233

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Paul Goldschmidt	1B	96	340	87	0.256	18	50	0.310	6	6	1	1	1	0	1	0.167	0.284	0.330	0.452	OK
Ben Rice	DH	148	552	146	0.264	40	93	0.366	6	6	1	1	0	0	0	0.167	0.257	0.359	0.564	OK
Heliot Ramos	LF	35	107	19	0.178	4	11	0.294	6	5	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.242	0.288	0.413	OK
Amed Rosario	RF	80	219	52	0.237	10	32	0.272	6	3	2	1	0	3	0	0.667	0.245	0.278	0.395	OK
George Lombard Jr.	SS	40	145	36	0.248	7	22	0.297	6	6	1	1	0	0	3	0.167	0.274	0.312	0.524	OK
Spencer Jones	CF	80	250	61	0.244	11	39	0.312	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.225	0.280	0.411	OK
Anthony Volpe	3B	65	209	50	0.239	2	24	0.321	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.228	0.305	0.314	OK
Ali Sánchez	C	38	83	20	0.241	1	8	0.264	5	3	2	1	1	2	0	0.667	0.200	0.213	0.264	OK
José Caballero	2B	123	406	94	0.232	14	50	0.288	5	5	3	1	4	0	0	0.600	0.229	0.288	0.351	OK
TEAM TOTALS									50	44	11	6	6	6	11	0.250

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trevor Rogers	Starter	29	161.7	4.17	1.212	8.5	153	6.1	4	1	1	3	3	116	6.1	3	1
Andrew Kittredge	Closer	55	43.2	3.96	1.528	8.3	40	1.2	2	1	1	0	1	36	0.0	1	1
Rico Garcia	Setup Man	74	57.2	2.99	1.066	10.7	68	1.0	3	2	2	1	2	26	1.0	2	2
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	66	39.4	2.74	1.168	10.3	45	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	0.2	2	0
Albert Suárez	Reliever	27	58.3	4.17	1.269	6.3	41	1.0	2	2	2	1	3	23	0.0	3	2

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brendan Beck	Starter	3	7.2	8.75	1.667	6.2	5	3.0	2	1	1	4	7	72	3.0	7	1
David Bednar	Closer	63	63.9	2.68	1.080	10.6	75	1.1	2	0	0	0	2	23	1.1	2	0
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	80	61.7	2.63	1.491	14.0	96	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	61	74.9	1.80	1.202	8.2	68	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Tim Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	66	47.0	5.17	1.340	4.8	25	1.0	4	3	3	0	0	25	0.0	0	3
John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	10	8.6	2.09	1.395	3.1	3	2.2	1	1	1	0	1	39	2.2	1	1
Ryan Yarbrough	Reliever	37	55.4	4.22	1.300	7.1	44	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	0.0	1	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 6-5

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees

BAL 79-81 (4.47 RPG / 4.58 RA)

5 - 6

NYY 92-68 (4.58 RPG / 3.74 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 6-5 TARGET: BAL 5 - 6 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 51.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	3
NYY	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	0	x	6	5

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff2

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak3W

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.4

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff18

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

BAL Season Quality

Record78-81

Win%0.491

Run Diff-26

RD/Game-0.164

NYY Season Quality

Record92-67

Win%0.579

Run Diff143

RD/Game0.899

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8719; margin adjustment: 0.3662; applied: True

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Dylan Beavers	RF	97	312	72	0.231	7	38	0.301	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.204	0.274	0.315	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	156	583	155	0.266	41	110	0.360	4	3	0	1	0	1	2	0.000	0.226	0.309	0.551	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	153	606	136	0.224	23	58	0.310	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.234	0.310	0.429	OK
Coby Mayo	DH	123	400	91	0.228	24	63	0.294	4	4	2	1	5	0	0	0.500	0.214	0.278	0.427	OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	3B	54	186	49	0.263	10	37	0.308	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.258	0.291	0.515	OK
Colton Cowser	CF	124	330	74	0.224	12	37	0.309	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.241	0.323	0.346	OK
Jeremiah Jackson	2B	86	265	57	0.215	8	37	0.239	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.175	0.194	0.292	OK
Christian Franklin	LF	16	40	5	0.125	0	0	0.255	4	2	0	1	0	2	0	0.000	0.117	0.217	0.204	OK
Carlos Narváez	C	29	73	8	0.110	0	0	0.198	4	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.136	0.189	0.185	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	30	3	5	5	5	8	0.100

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Paul Goldschmidt	1B	96	340	87	0.256	18	50	0.310	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.284	0.330	0.452	OK
Ben Rice	DH	148	552	146	0.264	40	93	0.366	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.257	0.359	0.564	OK
Heliot Ramos	LF	35	107	19	0.178	4	11	0.294	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.242	0.288	0.413	OK
Amed Rosario	RF	80	219	52	0.237	10	32	0.272	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.245	0.278	0.395	OK
George Lombard Jr.	SS	40	145	36	0.248	7	22	0.297	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.274	0.312	0.524	OK
Spencer Jones	CF	80	250	61	0.244	11	39	0.312	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.225	0.280	0.411	OK
Anthony Volpe	3B	65	209	50	0.239	2	24	0.321	3	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.228	0.305	0.314	OK
Ali Sánchez	C	38	83	20	0.241	1	8	0.264	3	3	1	1	2	0	1	0.333	0.200	0.213	0.264	OK
José Caballero	2B	123	406	94	0.232	14	50	0.288	3	3	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.229	0.288	0.351	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	29	5	6	6	4	10	0.172

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brandon Young	Starter	27	147.0	3.73	1.401	7.8	127	5.2	5	6	6	4	9	105	5.2	9	6
Andrew Kittredge	Closer	55	43.2	3.96	1.528	8.3	40	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Rico Garcia	Setup Man	74	57.2	2.99	1.066	10.7	68	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brendan Beck	Starter	3	7.2	8.75	1.667	6.2	5	3.0	2	4	4	3	6	68	3.0	6	4
David Bednar	Closer	63	63.9	2.68	1.080	10.6	75	2.1	0	0	0	1	0	33	2.1	0	0
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	80	61.7	2.63	1.491	14.0	96	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	61	74.9	1.80	1.202	8.2	68	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Tim Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	66	47.0	5.17	1.340	4.8	25	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	25	1.2	1	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 6-5

Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox

CHC 88-73 (5.24 RPG / 4.35 RA)

5 - 4

BOS 87-74 (4.27 RPG / 3.76 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 5-4 TARGET: CHC 5 - 4 BOS (CHC) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	1	1	5	8
BOS	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	1	4	6

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.5

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff7

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs2.2

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-6

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

CHC Season Quality

Record88-71

Win%0.553

Run Diff146

RD/Game0.918

BOS Season Quality

Record85-74

Win%0.535

Run Diff79

RD/Game0.497

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4141; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	157	609	172	0.282	45	107	0.375	5	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.272	0.349	0.536	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	139	533	145	0.272	26	86	0.368	5	5	3	1	1	0	0	0.600	0.280	0.357	0.506	OK
Alex Bregman	DH	152	596	157	0.263	26	89	0.354	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.267	0.352	0.486	OK
Tyrone Taylor	LF	25	67	23	0.343	1	8	0.392	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.243	0.289	0.430	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	154	612	162	0.265	8	72	0.316	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.251	0.298	0.322	OK
Matt Shaw	3B	62	162	38	0.235	5	22	0.311	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.225	0.304	0.384	OK
Michael Busch	1B	155	583	140	0.240	19	75	0.351	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.238	0.346	0.389	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	120	413	89	0.215	17	62	0.301	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.229	0.316	0.401	OK
Miguel Amaya	C	69	208	48	0.231	6	26	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.191	0.253	0.331	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	35	8	5	5	5	9	0.229

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Roman Anthony	LF	52	204	48	0.235	5	15	0.328	5	5	1	1	2	0	2	0.200	0.231	0.300	0.379	OK
Mickey Gasper	C	64	188	48	0.255	10	24	0.356	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.235	0.319	0.446	OK
Adley Rutschman	DH	30	111	23	0.207	4	10	0.261	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.241	0.300	0.412	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	151	573	145	0.253	23	73	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.210	0.285	0.355	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	145	489	119	0.243	13	61	0.327	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.240	0.315	0.361	OK
Nick Sogard	2B	61	225	57	0.253	5	18	0.340	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.251	0.321	0.369	OK
Jarren Duran	CF	145	538	111	0.206	20	63	0.264	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.218	0.268	0.364	OK
Andruw Monasterio	1B	98	299	71	0.237	6	40	0.297	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.208	0.265	0.330	OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	SS	53	156	37	0.237	2	16	0.308	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.208	0.279	0.276	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	4	4	4	12	0.182

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Clay Holmes	Starter	8	42.7	4.43	1.288	6.3	30	5.2	2	2	2	3	7	101	5.2	7	2
Jacob Webb	Closer	67	59.0	3.81	1.424	11.0	72	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	23	1.0	2	0
Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	20	14.5	5.59	1.862	11.8	19	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	19	1.0	2	1
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	31	27.1	3.65	1.218	10.0	30	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	25	1.0	0	0
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	56	39.8	5.88	1.558	13.3	59	0.1	2	1	1	1	1	14	0.1	1	1

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Alec Gamboa	Starter	20	28.9	1.25	1.142	6.9	22	5.0	3	2	2	4	4	100	5.0	4	2
Aroldis Chapman	Closer	52	51.2	1.41	1.055	12.5	71	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	19	1.0	1	0
Erik Miller	Setup Man	19	18.2	3.46	1.429	14.3	29	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	16	1.0	3	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	54	50.7	1.78	0.927	10.5	59	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1
Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	61	50.0	3.78	1.400	10.6	59	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	19	1.0	1	2

Game Summary

CHC wins 5-4

Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox

CHC 88-73 (5.24 RPG / 4.35 RA)

3 - 4

BOS 87-74 (4.27 RPG / 3.76 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 4-3 TARGET: CHC 3 - 4 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 55.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	5
BOS	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	x	4	6

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.5

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff7

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs2.2

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-6

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

CHC Season Quality

Record88-71

Win%0.553

Run Diff146

RD/Game0.918

BOS Season Quality

Record85-74

Win%0.535

Run Diff79

RD/Game0.497

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4141; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	157	609	172	0.282	45	107	0.375	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.272	0.349	0.536	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	139	533	145	0.272	26	86	0.368	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.281	0.357	0.506	OK
Alex Bregman	DH	152	596	157	0.263	26	89	0.354	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.267	0.353	0.486	OK
Tyrone Taylor	LF	25	67	23	0.343	1	8	0.392	4	3	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.243	0.289	0.430	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	154	612	162	0.265	8	72	0.316	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.251	0.298	0.322	OK
Matt Shaw	3B	62	162	38	0.235	5	22	0.311	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.225	0.304	0.384	OK
Michael Busch	1B	155	583	140	0.240	19	75	0.351	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.239	0.346	0.389	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	120	413	89	0.215	17	62	0.301	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.230	0.316	0.401	OK
Miguel Amaya	C	69	208	48	0.231	6	26	0.321	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.191	0.253	0.331	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	5	3	3	3	5	0.161

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Roman Anthony	LF	52	204	48	0.235	5	15	0.328	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.231	0.300	0.379	OK
Mickey Gasper	C	64	188	48	0.255	10	24	0.356	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.235	0.319	0.446	OK
Adley Rutschman	DH	30	111	23	0.207	4	10	0.261	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.242	0.300	0.413	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	151	573	145	0.253	23	73	0.333	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.210	0.285	0.355	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	145	489	119	0.243	13	61	0.327	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.240	0.315	0.361	OK
Nick Sogard	2B	61	225	57	0.253	5	18	0.340	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.251	0.321	0.370	OK
Jarren Duran	CF	145	538	111	0.206	20	63	0.264	4	2	0	0	0	2	2	0.000	0.218	0.268	0.364	OK
Andruw Monasterio	1B	98	299	71	0.237	6	40	0.297	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.208	0.265	0.330	OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	SS	53	156	37	0.237	2	16	0.308	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.208	0.280	0.276	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	30	6	4	4	8	8	0.200

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
David Peterson	Starter	15	72.3	4.11	1.452	8.5	68	5.0	5	4	4	4	6	106	5.0	6	4
Jacob Webb	Closer	67	59.0	3.81	1.424	11.0	72	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	25	1.0	1	0
Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	20	14.5	5.59	1.862	11.8	19	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	31	27.1	3.65	1.218	10.0	30	1.0	1	0	0	3	0	40	1.0	0	0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brayan Bello	Starter	25	108.6	4.64	1.418	7.5	90	5.0	1	1	1	1	4	70	5.0	4	1
Aroldis Chapman	Closer	52	51.2	1.41	1.055	12.5	71	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	23	1.0	0	2
Erik Miller	Setup Man	19	18.2	3.46	1.429	14.3	29	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	54	50.7	1.78	0.927	10.5	59	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	61	50.0	3.78	1.400	10.6	59	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

BOS wins 4-3

Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays

CIN 74-86 (4.12 RPG / 5.12 RA)

3 - 5

TOR 78-82 (4.01 RPG / 4.3 RA)

WINNER: TOR wins 5-3 TARGET: CIN 3 - 5 TOR (TOR) Confidence: 63.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	3	4
TOR	0	2	0	0	0	0	3	0	x	5	9

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.1

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-14

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-9

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak3L

CIN Season Quality

Record74-85

Win%0.465

Run Diff-159

RD/Game-1.000

TOR Season Quality

Record77-82

Win%0.484

Run Diff-47

RD/Game-0.296

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4693; margin adjustment: 0.1971; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carlos Jorge	CF	13	34	5	0.147	1	1	0.194	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.187	0.229	0.369	OK
Elly De La Cruz	DH	137	534	154	0.288	30	77	0.371	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.281	0.373	0.539	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	156	598	159	0.266	31	107	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.226	0.291	0.364	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	126	446	98	0.220	23	57	0.326	4	3	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.218	0.311	0.394	OK
Eugenio Suárez	3B	121	420	89	0.212	25	72	0.308	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.210	0.289	0.424	OK
Héctor Rodríguez	RF	38	132	29	0.220	6	14	0.264	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.211	0.246	0.401	OK
Juan Brito	2B	13	44	15	0.341	3	11	0.362	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.262	0.302	0.422	OK
Jose Trevino	C	46	148	32	0.216	5	19	0.220	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.199	0.206	0.299	OK
Oswaldo Cabrera	SS	2	7	1	0.143	0	0	0.143	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.096	0.107	0.176	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	4	3	3	2	9	0.129

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Charles McAdoo	2B	32	91	22	0.242	2	12	0.293	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.237	0.292	0.330	OK
Alejandro Kirk	C	75	270	76	0.281	10	42	0.348	4	2	0	1	1	1	1	0.000	0.273	0.332	0.371	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	141	533	140	0.263	9	56	0.332	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.272	0.340	0.378	OK
George Springer	DH	121	455	114	0.251	15	53	0.324	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.242	0.302	0.365	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	152	560	130	0.232	33	89	0.307	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.207	0.270	0.365	OK
Nathan Lukes	RF	119	402	111	0.276	10	40	0.323	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.274	0.315	0.354	OK
Davis Schneider	LF	56	120	18	0.150	5	15	0.290	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.158	0.306	0.419	OK
Ernie Clement	SS	154	580	153	0.264	9	47	0.290	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.244	0.270	0.349	OK
Myles Straw	CF	121	290	69	0.238	3	25	0.294	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.250	0.306	0.345	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	9	5	5	2	7	0.281

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nick Lodolo	Starter	20	101.1	5.16	1.503	7.1	80	5.0	4	2	2	1	5	79	5.0	5	2
Emilio Pagán	Closer	44	41.5	3.47	1.060	9.8	45	2.0	4	3	3	1	2	41	2.0	2	3
Luis Mey	Setup Man	27	30.1	6.28	1.794	14.1	47	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
José Soriano	Starter	9	49.7	4.89	1.328	7.2	40	6.0	4	3	3	1	6	99	6.0	6	3
Louis Varland	Closer	70	71.4	1.39	1.092	12.0	95	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	73	65.1	1.94	1.260	5.4	39	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	87.9	2.76	1.160	9.3	91	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

TOR wins 5-3

Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals

CLE 83-76 (4.11 RPG / 4.09 RA)

4 - 3

KC 68-91 (4.23 RPG / 4.94 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 4-3 TARGET: CLE 4 - 3 KC (CLE) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	4	8
KC	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3	6

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed3.0

Run Diff17

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

KC Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed6.1

Run Diff-21

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

CLE Season Quality

Record83-76

Win%0.522

Run Diff3

RD/Game0.019

KC Season Quality

Record68-91

Win%0.428

Run Diff-112

RD/Game-0.704

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9415; margin adjustment: -0.3954; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	CF	143	519	146	0.281	3	31	0.377	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.307	0.399	0.373	OK
José Ramírez	3B	119	452	107	0.237	12	51	0.324	5	3	2	1	3	2	0	0.667	0.271	0.339	0.388	OK
Chase DeLauter	DH	126	474	136	0.287	15	64	0.360	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.284	0.356	0.448	OK
Jo Adell	RF	44	166	39	0.235	6	30	0.312	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.229	0.268	0.357	OK
Angel Martínez	LF	104	376	97	0.258	18	58	0.293	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.294	0.312	0.588	OK
David Fry	1B	79	174	34	0.195	7	18	0.293	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.209	0.289	0.373	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	118	427	102	0.239	15	55	0.331	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.202	0.286	0.360	OK
Austin Hedges	C	72	210	52	0.248	5	24	0.325	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.214	0.304	0.328	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	147	514	128	0.249	11	64	0.309	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.257	0.303	0.353	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	35	8	4	4	5	10	0.229

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	C	145	518	122	0.236	25	76	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.229	0.291	0.418	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	139	543	153	0.282	18	53	0.358	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.292	0.355	0.434	OK
Jac Caglianone	RF	139	496	139	0.280	23	71	0.332	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.280	0.324	0.422	OK
Maikel Garcia	3B	78	300	80	0.267	3	38	0.325	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.267	0.333	0.384	OK
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	110	405	100	0.247	15	60	0.330	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.253	0.320	0.489	OK
Salvador Perez	DH	148	565	130	0.230	20	75	0.274	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.230	0.261	0.389	OK
Michael Massey	2B	126	414	113	0.273	13	49	0.305	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.226	0.255	0.363	OK
John Rave	LF	45	135	31	0.230	6	13	0.302	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.223	0.292	0.408	OK
Kyle Isbel	CF	93	285	62	0.218	6	24	0.262	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.224	0.257	0.299	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	6	3	3	1	8	0.182

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gavin Williams	Starter	31	177.5	3.70	1.104	12.4	244	5.2	3	3	3	0	8	80	5.2	8	3
Cade Smith	Closer	68	68.9	2.09	1.030	14.0	107	1.1	2	0	0	1	0	24	1.1	0	0
Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	66	50.0	3.06	1.400	10.3	57	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	57	37.3	3.14	1.340	18.1	75	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Noah Cameron	Starter	30	170.0	3.97	1.218	8.2	155	5.2	5	2	2	3	6	110	5.2	6	2
Nate Pearson	Closer	24	23.5	3.45	1.277	9.6	25	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	23	1.0	2	1
Alex Lange	Setup Man	58	55.7	6.62	1.688	9.7	60	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	23	1.1	1	0
Connor Thomas	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	15	13.2	3.41	1.439	8.9	13	1.0	0	1	1	1	1	17	1.0	1	1

Game Summary

CLE wins 4-3

Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox

COL 57-102 (4.65 RPG / 5.84 RA)

4 - 9

CHW 82-77 (4.78 RPG / 4.45 RA)

WINNER: CHW wins 9-4 TARGET: COL 4 - 9 CHW (CHW) Confidence: 72.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	4	7
CHW	5	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	x	9	9

COL Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed6.3

Run Diff-19

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak4L

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs6.5

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff18

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

COL Season Quality

Record57-102

Win%0.358

Run Diff-188

RD/Game-1.182

CHW Season Quality

Record82-77

Win%0.516

Run Diff52

RD/Game0.327

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.4592; margin adjustment: 0.6129; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	CF	138	536	158	0.295	15	82	0.336	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.278	0.308	0.460	OK
Adael Amador	2B	23	73	21	0.288	4	14	0.358	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.210	0.274	0.353	OK
Hunter Goodman	C	135	506	124	0.245	39	84	0.310	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.239	0.289	0.447	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	150	539	161	0.299	15	70	0.389	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.276	0.352	0.386	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	124	396	103	0.260	13	49	0.355	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.263	0.341	0.437	OK
Mickey Moniak	LF	112	396	95	0.240	23	65	0.277	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.201	0.236	0.425	OK
Troy Johnston	RF	121	386	109	0.282	4	49	0.347	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.196	0.251	0.311	OK
Zac Veen	DH	31	66	16	0.242	3	13	0.315	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.234	0.303	0.439	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	138	451	98	0.217	12	43	0.263	3	3	1	1	3	0	1	0.333	0.220	0.263	0.381	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	34	7	4	4	1	10	0.206

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Sam Antonacci	2B	135	464	125	0.269	8	48	0.364	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.285	0.336	0.403	OK
Kyle Teel	C	35	110	20	0.182	4	23	0.297	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.183	0.284	0.293	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	156	583	147	0.252	33	92	0.362	4	3	2	1	4	1	0	0.667	0.282	0.385	0.502	OK
Munetaka Murakami	1B	123	437	89	0.204	33	73	0.348	4	4	0	1	0	0	1	0.000	0.210	0.349	0.483	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	138	413	100	0.242	14	73	0.301	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.211	0.266	0.346	OK
Tristan Peters	CF	144	428	115	0.269	12	56	0.338	4	4	0	1	0	0	1	0.000	0.213	0.270	0.342	OK
Randal Grichuk	LF	97	224	68	0.304	14	41	0.331	4	4	0	1	0	0	1	0.000	0.308	0.336	0.594	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	150	559	112	0.200	31	87	0.286	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.172	0.241	0.308	OK
Braden Montgomery	RF	88	310	68	0.219	6	38	0.310	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.250	0.324	0.375	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	9	9	9	3	5	0.273

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tomoyuki Sugano	Starter	28	144.4	5.48	1.364	5.7	91	5.0	6	7	7	2	3	92	5.0	3	6
Jordan Romano	Closer	26	23.5	3.45	1.234	9.6	25	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	19	1.0	0	2
Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	71	51.6	2.97	1.318	8.4	48	2.0	1	0	0	1	2	32	2.0	2	0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sean Burke	Starter	31	162.8	3.48	1.235	9.8	178	5.0	4	1	1	0	6	83	5.0	6	1
Grant Taylor	Closer	41	51.9	2.60	1.118	13.2	76	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0
Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	53	73.6	3.18	1.277	9.5	78	1.1	2	2	2	1	0	27	1.1	0	2
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	66	57.4	2.98	1.324	9.3	59	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	42	33.7	4.54	1.780	13.1	49	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	7	0.1	1	1

Game Summary

CHW wins 9-4

Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics

HOU 79-80 (4.45 RPG / 4.77 RA)

5 - 4

OAK 63-96 (4.35 RPG / 5.72 RA)

WINNER: HOU wins 5-4 TARGET: HOU 5 - 4 OAK (HOU) Confidence: 53.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	0	5	7
OAK	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	6

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed5.0

Run Diff-8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed5.8

Run Diff-15

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

HOU Season Quality

Record79-80

Win%0.497

Run Diff-51

RD/Game-0.321

OAK Season Quality

Record63-96

Win%0.396

Run Diff-219

RD/Game-1.377

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.8479; margin adjustment: -0.3561; applied: True

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	107	431	118	0.274	20	51	0.324	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.265	0.295	0.445	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	154	551	175	0.318	41	102	0.435	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.342	0.439	0.607	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	151	547	141	0.258	24	93	0.357	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.278	0.357	0.575	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	131	512	128	0.250	16	46	0.305	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.262	0.302	0.394	OK
Yainer Diaz	C	89	326	91	0.279	14	42	0.309	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.277	0.298	0.485	OK
Christian Walker	1B	151	557	125	0.224	27	84	0.297	4	4	1	1	1	0	3	0.250	0.233	0.288	0.453	OK
Cam Smith	RF	145	500	104	0.208	20	53	0.272	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.180	0.235	0.324	OK
Lucas Spence	CF	14	44	9	0.205	3	8	0.286	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.222	0.287	0.474	OK
Jorge Barrosa	LF	4	7	1	0.143	0	0	0.333	3	3	2	1	3	0	1	0.667	0.211	0.285	0.349	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	34	7	5	5	1	10	0.206

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Henry Bolte	CF	112	403	111	0.275	11	36	0.355	4	4	1	1	3	0	2	0.250	0.272	0.331	0.402	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	144	461	110	0.239	17	61	0.324	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.300	0.363	0.462	OK
Shea Langeliers	DH	103	415	110	0.265	23	58	0.329	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.266	0.317	0.456	OK
Jeff McNeil	2B	139	468	125	0.267	9	59	0.313	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.264	0.306	0.395	OK
Zack Gelof	3B	104	382	99	0.259	22	54	0.326	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.305	0.356	0.664	OK
Donovan Walton	SS	53	131	31	0.237	6	20	0.375	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.280	0.350	0.496	OK
Carlos Cortes	LF	118	336	85	0.253	10	43	0.317	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.246	0.300	0.432	OK
Tommy White	1B	52	180	45	0.250	3	9	0.269	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.247	0.268	0.328	OK
Jonah Heim	C	91	312	62	0.199	12	34	0.254	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.182	0.240	0.310	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	33	6	4	4	0	8	0.182

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Hunter Brown	Starter	19	99.2	3.36	1.310	10.9	120	5.1	5	3	3	0	6	86	5.1	6	3
Josh Hader	Closer	44	43.5	0.83	0.713	11.4	55	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Logan VanWey	Setup Man	8	10.1	1.78	0.891	6.2	7	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	65	55.9	4.19	1.485	12.9	80	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	20	1.1	0	1

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jacob Lopez	Starter	26	113.6	5.86	1.585	8.6	108	4.1	5	3	3	0	7	70	4.1	7	3
Elvis Alvarado	Closer	54	47.7	4.34	1.426	11.7	62	2.1	2	2	2	1	0	37	2.1	0	2
Hogan Harris	Setup Man	73	57.9	4.04	1.744	13.5	87	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Luis Medina	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	57	66.5	3.11	1.414	12.5	92	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0

Game Summary

HOU wins 5-4

Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners

LAA 61-98 (4.03 RPG / 4.6 RA)

4 - 3

SEA 74-85 (4.05 RPG / 4.45 RA)

WINNER: LAA wins 4-3 TARGET: LAA 4 - 3 SEA (LAA) Confidence: 51.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAA	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	4	4
SEA	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	5

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed5.2

Run Diff-15

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff-7

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

LAA Season Quality

Record61-98

Win%0.384

Run Diff-91

RD/Game-0.572

SEA Season Quality

Record74-85

Win%0.465

Run Diff-64

RD/Game-0.403

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1915; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	154	608	145	0.238	26	75	0.327	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.215	0.304	0.347	OK
Mike Trout	DH	140	505	124	0.246	22	54	0.385	4	2	0	1	0	2	0	0.000	0.261	0.398	0.441	OK
Wade Meckler	LF	89	289	86	0.298	3	27	0.370	4	4	1	1	3	0	0	0.250	0.298	0.363	0.367	OK
Vaughn Grissom	3B	113	410	99	0.241	13	69	0.305	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.249	0.296	0.412	OK
Moisés Ballesteros	1B	43	154	32	0.208	3	12	0.266	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.210	0.276	0.317	OK
Josh Lowe	RF	105	303	64	0.211	12	29	0.274	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.215	0.264	0.374	OK
Christian Moore	2B	35	125	23	0.184	1	15	0.237	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.228	0.269	0.315	OK
Travis d'Arnaud	C	29	72	12	0.167	1	3	0.241	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.157	0.207	0.255	OK
Bryce Teodosio	CF	23	59	12	0.203	0	4	0.242	3	2	1	1	0	1	0	0.500	0.199	0.240	0.245	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	4	4	4	4	3	0.129

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Randy Arozarena	DH	151	559	156	0.279	26	76	0.380	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.277	0.368	0.493	OK
Dominic Canzone	RF	141	465	121	0.260	22	75	0.328	4	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.265	0.329	0.458	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	147	587	147	0.250	22	70	0.309	4	2	1	1	0	2	0	0.500	0.317	0.358	0.499	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	149	585	155	0.265	10	55	0.321	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.195	0.252	0.259	OK
Michael Arroyo	LF	12	25	7	0.280	1	3	0.387	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.271	0.380	0.458	OK
Cole Young	2B	156	568	139	0.245	17	65	0.308	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.222	0.272	0.340	OK
Jhonny Pereda	C	28	84	25	0.298	2	8	0.355	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.328	0.385	0.408	OK
Weston Wilson	3B	43	118	24	0.203	3	10	0.271	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.193	0.265	0.267	OK
Leo Rivas	SS	43	118	18	0.153	0	10	0.273	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.174	0.262	0.228	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	5	3	3	4	8	0.156

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Reid Detmers	Starter	31	175.5	3.54	1.071	10.5	204	6.0	4	3	3	4	6	115	6.0	6	3
Ryan Watson	Closer	18	14.0	2.57	1.286	14.1	22	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Tayler Saucedo	Setup Man	27	15.4	3.51	1.429	14.6	25	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8	0.2	1	0
José Fermin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	51	45.2	3.98	1.549	12.1	61	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Luke Murphy	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	20	14.7	7.35	1.973	11.6	19	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4	0.1	1	0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bryce Miller	Starter	21	108.7	4.14	1.196	9.3	112	5.1	4	4	4	4	2	95	5.1	2	4
Andrés Muñoz	Closer	60	53.6	4.20	1.269	14.9	89	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	10	1.1	0	0
José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	71	54.3	4.64	1.657	9.0	54	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	70	54.6	4.45	1.703	11.0	67	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0

Game Summary

LAA wins 4-3

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants

LAD 97-62 (4.97 RPG / 3.75 RA)

6 - 2

SF 66-94 (4.2 RPG / 4.69 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 6-2 TARGET: LAD 6 - 2 SF (LAD) Confidence: 56.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	0	2	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	6	6
SF	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	5

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.9

Avg Allowed2.5

Run Diff24

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak2L

SF Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff-9

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

LAD Season Quality

Record97-62

Win%0.610

Run Diff194

RD/Game1.220

SF Season Quality

Record65-94

Win%0.409

Run Diff-84

RD/Game-0.528

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.6281; margin adjustment: -2.605; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	131	506	140	0.277	30	79	0.381	5	4	1	1	2	1	0	0.250	0.276	0.378	0.492	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	118	465	122	0.262	22	68	0.327	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0.200	0.327	0.388	0.502	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	150	568	166	0.292	16	68	0.367	4	3	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.280	0.344	0.389	OK
Will Smith	C	68	228	57	0.250	10	33	0.346	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.310	0.399	0.570	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	147	523	123	0.235	17	70	0.328	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.256	0.340	0.410	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	120	428	115	0.269	15	62	0.336	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.275	0.332	0.410	OK
Max Muncy	3B	145	478	119	0.249	29	76	0.343	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.253	0.324	0.456	OK
Andy Pages	CF	129	498	136	0.273	21	79	0.341	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.290	0.350	0.454	OK
Enrique Hernández	2B	33	81	18	0.222	3	11	0.276	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.241	0.293	0.401	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	32	6	6	6	5	9	0.188

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jonah Cox	CF	48	138	37	0.268	4	16	0.318	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.202	0.262	0.305	OK
Brett Harris	1B	11	29	6	0.207	0	2	0.281	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.177	0.240	0.250	OK
Victor Bericoto	DH	35	103	24	0.233	5	15	0.255	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.214	0.245	0.390	OK
Bo Davidson	RF	3	10	3	0.300	0	0	0.364	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.274	0.336	0.303	OK
Andrew Knizner	C	25	67	16	0.239	2	4	0.311	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.258	0.295	0.393	OK
Marcelo Mayer	2B	2	6	0	0.000	0	0	0.250	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.175	0.244	0.267
Shay Whitcomb	3B	24	83	18	0.217	2	8	0.226	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.204	0.219	0.326	OK
Scott Bandura	LF	9	21	4	0.190	0	0	0.227	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.132	0.171	0.219	OK
Christian Koss	SS	62	190	44	0.232	4	12	0.270	3	3	1	1	1	0	2	0.333	0.198	0.230	0.274	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	32	5	2	2	1	11	0.156

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tarik Skubal	Starter	9	54.3	2.98	1.142	9.9	60	6.1	2	1	1	1	7	102	6.1	7	1
Tanner Scott	Closer	67	56.3	3.04	1.101	12.5	78	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Brock Stewart	Setup Man	26	23.1	2.34	1.039	9.4	24	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	18	1.0	3	0
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	70	45.5	3.36	1.363	14.0	71	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	11	0.2	1	1

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Yunior Marte	Starter	4	18.4	4.89	1.467	5.4	11	4.2	3	3	3	3	6	92	4.2	6	3
Dylan Smith	Closer	40	33.0	4.64	1.697	11.7	43	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	20	1.0	2	0
Trent Harris	Setup Man	20	19.7	2.28	1.168	12.3	27	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	23	1.0	0	3
Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	23	26.4	5.45	1.780	7.2	21	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Jason Foley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	22	21.2	5.09	1.745	5.9	14	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	29	1.1	0	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-2

New York Mets @ Washington Nationals

NYM 73-87 (4.3 RPG / 4.53 RA)

4 - 5

WAS 76-84 (5.09 RPG / 5.03 RA)

WINNER: WAS wins 5-4 TARGET: NYM 4 - 5 WAS (WAS) Confidence: 51.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	4	7
WAS	0	1	0	1	0	0	3	0	x	5	3

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff-1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

NYM Season Quality

Record73-86

Win%0.459

Run Diff-35

RD/Game-0.220

WAS Season Quality

Record75-84

Win%0.472

Run Diff9

RD/Game0.057

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3461; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Francisco Lindor	SS	100	403	91	0.226	20	48	0.307	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.209	0.273	0.353	OK
Juan Soto	LF	106	384	106	0.276	27	68	0.391	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.262	0.377	0.494	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	153	614	160	0.261	17	76	0.310	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.236	0.286	0.358	OK
Mark Vientos	DH	83	266	57	0.214	13	39	0.257	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.214	0.258	0.387	OK
Carson Benge	RF	149	574	156	0.272	19	62	0.336	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.277	0.333	0.433	OK
Francisco Alvarez	C	106	359	83	0.231	15	40	0.309	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.263	0.315	0.428	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	134	476	105	0.221	15	49	0.288	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.193	0.264	0.322	OK
A.J. Ewing	CF	116	422	109	0.258	10	40	0.328	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.264	0.334	0.374	OK
Christopher Morel	1B	12	26	6	0.231	1	5	0.286	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.142	0.189	0.273	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	34	7	4	4	0	9	0.206

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	DH	132	503	132	0.262	30	77	0.385	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.259	0.367	0.465	OK
Andrés Chaparro	1B	74	191	49	0.257	11	37	0.343	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.275	0.344	0.510	OK
Brady House	3B	89	311	76	0.244	10	45	0.304	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.271	0.326	0.399	OK
Dylan Crews	RF	104	394	88	0.223	12	43	0.288	3	2	1	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.221	0.265	0.340	OK
CJ Abrams	SS	149	568	149	0.262	33	103	0.338	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.273	0.340	0.576	OK
Jacob Young	CF	125	413	103	0.249	10	46	0.308	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.253	0.299	0.381	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	157	591	146	0.247	22	88	0.299	3	3	1	1	3	0	1	0.333	0.152	0.202	0.316	OK
Keibert Ruiz	C	99	325	92	0.283	10	47	0.320	3	2	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.163	0.198	0.285	OK
Jorbit Vivas	2B	113	306	74	0.242	3	30	0.332	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.251	0.340	0.331	OK
TEAM TOTALS									30	27	3	5	5	3	6	0.111

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jefry Yan	Starter	17	14.7	5.51	2.041	15.3	25	4.0	2	2	2	0	2	60	4.0	2	2
Kodai Senga	Closer	31	58.3	7.72	1.732	11.6	75	2.0	1	3	3	3	2	40	2.0	2	3
Nathan Lavender	Setup Man	19	15.0	2.40	1.067	15.0	25	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	25	2.0	2	0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andrew Alvarez	Starter	24	103.8	3.29	1.310	9.3	107	5.2	4	2	2	0	6	85	5.2	6	2
Erik Tolman	Closer	14	11.9	3.78	1.681	11.3	15	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Brad Lord	Setup Man	40	75.4	4.18	1.353	9.2	77	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Luis Perales	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	6	11.0	11.45	2.545	10.6	13	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	19	1.0	0	2

Game Summary

WAS wins 5-4

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers

PIT 81-79 (4.75 RPG / 4.58 RA)

5 - 4

DET 75-85 (4.48 RPG / 4.03 RA)

WINNER: PIT wins 5-4 TARGET: PIT 5 - 4 DET (PIT) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	5	7
DET	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	4	8

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff3

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

DET Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

PIT Season Quality

Record81-78

Win%0.509

Run Diff28

RD/Game0.176

DET Season Quality

Record74-85

Win%0.465

Run Diff71

RD/Game0.447

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0251; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Konnor Griffin	SS	76	300	81	0.270	5	31	0.322	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.266	0.306	0.385	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	145	564	147	0.261	34	95	0.331	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.272	0.338	0.539	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	155	575	151	0.263	17	71	0.366	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.177	0.277	0.345	OK
Oneil Cruz	CF	94	364	102	0.280	20	67	0.367	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.304	0.368	0.502	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	141	533	159	0.298	4	58	0.361	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.278	0.325	0.352	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	DH	102	386	105	0.272	18	73	0.336	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.268	0.330	0.442	OK
Rafael Flores Jr.	C	42	140	38	0.271	10	22	0.338	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.279	0.347	0.505	OK
Spencer Horwitz	1B	111	376	93	0.247	10	48	0.345	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.249	0.338	0.344	OK
Jake Mangum	RF	119	417	116	0.278	5	32	0.331	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.257	0.298	0.360	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	5	5	3	7	0.206

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Max Clark	CF	47	162	44	0.272	3	21	0.357	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.281	0.350	0.406	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	2B	104	314	85	0.271	10	46	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.271	0.323	0.421	OK
Kevin McGonigle	3B	151	584	163	0.279	17	70	0.379	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.288	0.382	0.442	OK
Eduardo Valencia	DH	38	118	40	0.339	6	18	0.366	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.340	0.359	0.580	OK
Riley Greene	LF	135	496	141	0.284	21	75	0.373	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.251	0.344	0.457	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	141	534	131	0.245	27	89	0.305	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.239	0.281	0.403	OK
Brett Callahan	RF	28	66	14	0.212	1	8	0.264	4	4	2	0	0	0	2	0.500	0.212	0.256	0.327	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	153	513	115	0.224	24	72	0.321	4	4	1	1	2	0	3	0.250	0.212	0.306	0.425	OK
John Peck	SS	18	61	10	0.164	0	7	0.288	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.133	0.240	0.186	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	35	8	4	4	1	12	0.229

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bubba Chandler	Starter	30	147.6	4.45	1.409	8.4	138	5.0	4	3	3	1	7	85	5.0	7	3
Mason Montgomery	Closer	67	59.3	2.58	1.113	15.5	102	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Luke Weaver	Setup Man	17	13.7	5.91	1.533	12.5	19	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	67	59.7	3.62	1.240	11.9	79	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	65	75.5	3.22	1.311	11.8	99	1.0	2	1	1	0	3	19	1.0	3	1

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jackson Jobe	Starter	8	39.5	4.10	1.241	9.8	43	5.1	2	2	2	3	5	92	5.1	5	2
Kenley Jansen	Closer	48	40.5	3.11	1.111	10.9	49	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Tyler Holton	Setup Man	66	60.7	3.26	1.483	8.2	55	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Drew Sommers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	41	30.6	3.82	1.405	17.6	60	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	22	1.0	1	2
Jacob Waguespack	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	34	40.3	2.90	1.017	7.4	33	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	11	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

PIT wins 5-4

St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers

STL 77-82 (4.47 RPG / 4.6 RA)

4 - 5

MIL 100-59 (5.13 RPG / 3.82 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 5-4 TARGET: STL 4 - 5 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 54.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	4	5
MIL	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	0	x	5	9

STL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.0

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-13

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff11

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak2W

STL Season Quality

Record77-82

Win%0.484

Run Diff-22

RD/Game-0.138

MIL Season Quality

Record100-59

Win%0.629

Run Diff207

RD/Game1.302

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.297; margin adjustment: 0.5447; applied: True

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	133	519	128	0.247	17	50	0.344	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.250	0.324	0.361	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	154	585	141	0.241	17	66	0.349	4	4	1	1	3	0	0	0.250	0.222	0.290	0.381	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	152	584	158	0.271	26	95	0.330	4	4	3	1	0	0	1	0.750	0.187	0.250	0.307	OK
Leonardo Bernal	1B	21	85	24	0.282	4	18	0.322	4	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.259	0.299	0.423	OK
José Fermín	LF	110	314	81	0.258	6	41	0.318	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.216	0.281	0.307	OK
Thomas Saggese	3B	48	151	36	0.238	4	13	0.302	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.207	0.269	0.314	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	128	459	107	0.233	5	56	0.306	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.193	0.265	0.273	OK
Pedro Pagés	C	63	184	40	0.217	4	12	0.266	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.203	0.251	0.280	OK
Victor Scott II	CF	62	159	28	0.176	2	9	0.254	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.093	0.171	0.143	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	5	4	4	1	8	0.156

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Garrett Mitchell	CF	134	442	114	0.258	10	58	0.345	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.241	0.310	0.379	OK
Brice Turang	2B	144	559	152	0.272	20	95	0.368	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.276	0.356	0.451	OK
William Contreras	C	143	553	149	0.269	18	92	0.339	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.253	0.323	0.425	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	135	457	122	0.267	25	82	0.388	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.277	0.386	0.462	OK
Christian Yelich	DH	111	418	96	0.230	12	56	0.311	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.226	0.298	0.406	OK
Joey Ortiz	SS	115	360	95	0.264	9	46	0.322	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.276	0.330	0.401	OK
Luis Lara	RF	53	181	45	0.249	1	25	0.307	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.249	0.302	0.322	OK
Sal Frelick	LF	104	327	77	0.235	4	38	0.298	3	3	2	1	0	0	0	0.667	0.254	0.323	0.344	OK
David Hamilton	3B	109	328	78	0.238	4	26	0.302	3	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.208	0.272	0.289	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	9	5	5	1	7	0.273

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael McGreevy	Starter	30	160.5	3.93	1.277	6.3	113	5.1	6	2	2	0	7	93	5.1	7	2
Riley O'Brien	Closer	66	61.2	4.26	1.340	9.4	64	1.2	3	3	3	1	0	34	1.2	0	3
George Soriano	Setup Man	70	57.6	4.84	1.597	10.3	66	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Robert Gasser	Starter	20	99.6	4.16	1.285	8.5	94	5.0	3	3	3	0	4	84	5.0	4	3
Trevor Megill	Closer	61	59.5	2.12	0.874	10.3	68	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	21	1.1	1	0
Abner Uribe	Setup Man	60	53.9	2.17	1.113	10.2	61	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	74	80.1	3.48	1.461	12.8	114	1.2	2	1	1	0	2	28	1.2	2	1

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-4

Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies

TB 97-63 (4.51 RPG / 4.01 RA)

4 - 5

PHI 87-73 (4.41 RPG / 4.27 RA)

WINNER: PHI wins 5-4 TARGET: TB 4 - 5 PHI (PHI) Confidence: 53.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
TB	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	8
PHI	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	7

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak2L

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff-2

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

TB Season Quality

Record96-63

Win%0.604

Run Diff77

RD/Game0.484

PHI Season Quality

Record87-72

Win%0.547

Run Diff24

RD/Game0.151

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3461; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	151	602	177	0.294	22	85	0.361	5	5	3	1	0	0	1	0.600	0.252	0.311	0.350	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	151	568	157	0.276	22	92	0.357	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.244	0.309	0.432	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	158	603	166	0.275	41	99	0.360	5	3	1	1	3	2	2	0.333	0.256	0.327	0.442	OK
Ryan Vilade	RF	86	233	57	0.245	11	40	0.321	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.212	0.291	0.344	OK
Jonny DeLuca	CF	100	334	89	0.266	9	47	0.300	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.272	0.310	0.423	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	146	568	175	0.308	0	38	0.334	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.296	0.319	0.342	OK
Ben Williamson	2B	82	253	62	0.245	3	25	0.305	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.155	0.214	0.228	OK
Nick Fortes	C	98	288	76	0.264	5	34	0.308	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.175	0.216	0.281	OK
Jorge Mateo	SS	24	70	10	0.143	1	7	0.187	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.120	0.157	0.193	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	38	8	4	4	4	7	0.211

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kyle Schwarber	DH	151	568	132	0.232	44	94	0.351	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.215	0.337	0.403	OK
Trea Turner	SS	151	627	151	0.241	19	58	0.296	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.233	0.295	0.335	OK
Bryce Harper	RF	157	560	151	0.270	28	86	0.382	5	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.258	0.367	0.446	OK
Alec Bohm	1B	149	557	141	0.253	15	87	0.318	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.266	0.327	0.388	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	151	522	130	0.249	10	65	0.328	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.246	0.329	0.365	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	149	513	134	0.261	18	61	0.306	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.150	0.201	0.282	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	140	410	106	0.259	3	40	0.306	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.224	0.269	0.338	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	118	405	84	0.207	11	50	0.284	4	3	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.165	0.242	0.271	OK
Edmundo Sosa	3B	80	224	55	0.246	8	43	0.280	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.257	0.275	0.447	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	36	7	5	5	3	7	0.194

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Freddy Peralta	Starter	9	48.6	3.70	1.008	7.2	39	5.2	5	4	4	2	6	106	5.2	6	5
Bryan Baker	Closer	62	59.7	1.36	0.905	9.5	63	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	32	2.0	1	0
Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	70	61.7	2.92	1.070	9.0	62	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	0.0	0	0
Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	40	32.1	2.52	0.935	12.1	43	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	20	0.1	0	0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	32	197.2	2.97	1.232	10.1	221	6.1	7	3	3	3	6	114	6.1	6	3
Jhoan Duran	Closer	58	56.4	1.60	0.993	12.9	81	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	59	51.2	3.69	1.133	12.8	73	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	14	8.0	9.00	2.000	12.4	11	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	0.1	0	0
José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	67	51.0	6.18	1.804	12.4	70	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	7	0.0	1	1

Game Summary

PHI wins 5-4

Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins

TEX 79-80 (4.16 RPG / 4.41 RA)

4 - 5

MIN 75-84 (4.53 RPG / 4.94 RA)

WINNER: MIN wins 5-4 TARGET: TEX 4 - 5 MIN (MIN) Confidence: 54.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	5
MIN	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	x	5	9

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff-2

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

TEX Season Quality

Record79-80

Win%0.497

Run Diff-40

RD/Game-0.252

MIN Season Quality

Record75-84

Win%0.472

Run Diff-64

RD/Game-0.403

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1954; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Brandon Nimmo	RF	152	580	151	0.260	14	61	0.326	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.248	0.306	0.358	OK
Josh Jung	DH	103	398	119	0.299	12	42	0.363	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.305	0.358	0.505	OK
Corey Seager	SS	98	371	84	0.226	19	48	0.314	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.215	0.283	0.406	OK
Wyatt Langford	LF	107	399	97	0.243	17	43	0.338	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.245	0.349	0.388	OK
Ezequiel Duran	3B	148	528	137	0.259	17	83	0.320	4	3	1	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.230	0.292	0.368	OK
Nicky Lopez	2B	85	225	62	0.276	1	23	0.325	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.160	0.211	0.191	OK
Jake Burger	1B	151	544	125	0.230	27	89	0.302	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.185	0.261	0.366	OK
Evan Carter	CF	134	383	74	0.193	9	39	0.283	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.144	0.223	0.224	OK
Danny Jansen	C	62	186	36	0.194	6	23	0.292	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.184	0.264	0.313	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	32	5	4	4	5	6	0.156

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Luke Keaschall	RF	148	518	143	0.276	10	49	0.365	5	5	1	0	0	0	3	0.200	0.273	0.336	0.410	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	150	573	146	0.255	24	82	0.302	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.279	0.317	0.442	OK
Kody Clemens	2B	140	519	122	0.235	26	76	0.296	4	3	1	1	1	0	2	0.333	0.140	0.195	0.284	OK
Josh Bell	DH	151	560	143	0.255	20	92	0.317	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.255	0.304	0.376	OK
Ryan Jeffers	C	86	310	78	0.252	14	55	0.343	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.200	0.276	0.343	OK
Walker Jenkins	CF	21	72	16	0.222	4	10	0.300	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.202	0.266	0.359	OK
Royce Lewis	1B	122	451	102	0.226	14	54	0.288	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.213	0.264	0.338	OK
Emmanuel Rodriguez	LF	12	41	8	0.195	2	5	0.250	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.201	0.258	0.434	OK
Ryan Kreidler	SS	87	241	52	0.216	8	28	0.270	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.140	0.200	0.308	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	33	9	5	5	4	10	0.273

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jacob deGrom	Starter	30	156.1	3.92	1.115	11.3	196	5.2	5	3	3	4	8	107	5.2	8	3
Jacob Latz	Closer	56	66.1	1.91	0.817	10.9	80	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	20	1.1	2	0
Jakob Junis	Setup Man	50	48.8	3.14	1.270	6.8	37	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	22	1.0	0	2

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Joe Ryan	Starter	26	137.5	3.86	1.185	9.9	151	5.0	4	4	4	3	5	99	5.0	5	4
Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	55	41.9	4.30	1.623	11.0	51	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	20	15.9	2.83	1.321	15.3	27	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	23	17.7	2.03	1.243	10.7	21	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	22	1.0	0	0
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	63	64.5	4.74	1.535	9.5	68	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

MIN wins 5-4

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres

ARI Recent Form

SD Recent Form

ARI Season Quality

SD Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins

ATL Recent Form

MIA Recent Form

ATL Season Quality

MIA Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees

BAL Recent Form

NYY Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

NYY Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees

BAL Recent Form

NYY Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

NYY Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox

CHC Recent Form

BOS Recent Form

CHC Season Quality

BOS Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox

CHC Recent Form

BOS Recent Form

CHC Season Quality

BOS Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays

CIN Recent Form

TOR Recent Form

CIN Season Quality

TOR Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals