MLB Predictions — September 22, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
ARI @ COL	6 - 5	6 - 5	ARI	ARI	ARI wins 6-5	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHW @ KC	5 - 4	5 - 4	CHW	CHW	CHW wins 5-4	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CIN @ ATL	6 - 9	6 - 9	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 9-6	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ BOS	3 - 4	3 - 4	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 4-3	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ SEA	3 - 5	3 - 5	SEA	SEA	SEA wins 5-3	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAA @ OAK	5 - 4	5 - 4	LAA	LAA	LAA wins 5-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIA @ CHC	4 - 6	4 - 6	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 6-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ PHI	7 - 4	7 - 4	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 7-4	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIN @ SF	5 - 3	5 - 3	MIN	MIN	MIN wins 5-3	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ TEX	4 - 6	4 - 6	TEX	TEX	TEX wins 6-4	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ LAD	4 - 6	4 - 6	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 6-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
STL @ PIT	4 - 5	4 - 5	PIT	PIT	PIT wins 5-4	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ NYY	3 - 4	3 - 4	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 4-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ NYY	4 - 5	4 - 5	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 5-4	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TOR @ BAL	4 - 5	4 - 5	BAL	BAL	BAL wins 5-4	50%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
WAS @ DET	3 - 4	3 - 4	DET	DET	DET wins 4-3	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

ARI 82-74 (4.44 RPG / 4.45 RA)

6 - 5

COL 57-99 (4.66 RPG / 5.79 RA)

WINNER: ARI wins 6-5 TARGET: ARI 6 - 5 COL (ARI) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	0	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	6	7
COL	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	0	1	5	5

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed5.0

Run Diff-3

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

COL Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed6.4

Run Diff-23

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

ARI Season Quality

Record82-74

Win%0.526

Run Diff-1

RD/Game-0.006

COL Season Quality

Record57-99

Win%0.365

Run Diff-177

RD/Game-1.135

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.052; margin adjustment: -0.4418; applied: True

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ildemaro Vargas	2B	127	440	113	0.257	9	67	0.297	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.273	0.317	0.386	OK
Ketel Marte	DH	134	538	134	0.249	22	74	0.314	4	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.256	0.311	0.432	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	125	453	139	0.307	15	75	0.386	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.336	0.406	0.554	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	150	536	137	0.256	9	51	0.362	4	4	3	1	0	0	1	0.750	0.301	0.395	0.402	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	145	506	125	0.247	27	78	0.323	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.318	0.368	0.586	OK
Jordan Lawlar	CF	36	112	29	0.259	5	15	0.320	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.180	0.211	0.343	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	149	554	134	0.242	22	72	0.334	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.240	0.326	0.490	OK
Tim Tawa	LF	88	284	67	0.236	10	38	0.290	4	4	1	1	3	0	0	0.250	0.230	0.285	0.383	OK
Jose Fernandez	1B	60	191	50	0.262	3	16	0.305	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.271	0.316	0.362	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	7	6	6	2	8	0.212

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	CF	135	525	156	0.297	15	82	0.339	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.295	0.328	0.497	OK
Connor Norby	2B	35	118	36	0.305	3	16	0.388	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.257	0.324	0.380	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	147	527	159	0.302	15	69	0.392	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.281	0.363	0.389	OK
Hunter Goodman	C	132	494	121	0.245	39	82	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.239	0.296	0.522	OK
Cole Carrigg	SS	84	310	84	0.271	10	48	0.335	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.271	0.322	0.448	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	121	384	100	0.260	12	48	0.357	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.244	0.332	0.425	OK
Mickey Moniak	DH	110	391	94	0.240	22	64	0.278	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.229	0.267	0.459	OK
Troy Johnston	RF	120	384	108	0.281	4	49	0.345	4	3	2	1	3	1	1	0.667	0.179	0.235	0.293	OK
Zac Veen	LF	28	59	14	0.237	2	12	0.318	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.148	0.232	0.250	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	5	5	5	4	6	0.156

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael Soroka	Starter	20	102.0	3.53	1.157	8.9	101	5.0	2	2	2	2	4	89	5.0	4	2
Brandyn Garcia	Closer	36	26.8	2.01	0.784	12.1	36	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	20	1.0	1	0
Juan Morillo	Setup Man	48	40.4	2.90	1.114	12.3	55	1.0	1	2	2	1	1	20	1.0	1	2
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	40.8	3.09	1.225	7.1	32	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	50	42.9	3.36	1.235	9.0	43	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kyle Freeland	Starter	24	124.6	6.57	1.517	7.5	104	4.2	6	5	5	2	2	97	4.2	2	5
Jordan Romano	Closer	25	22.5	3.60	1.244	9.6	24	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	71	51.6	2.97	1.318	8.4	48	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	49	44.7	6.44	1.678	8.7	43	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	27	1.1	3	0
Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	43	30.2	5.36	1.755	11.0	37	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1

Game Summary

ARI wins 6-5

Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals

CHW 80-76 (4.7 RPG / 4.43 RA)

5 - 4

KC 67-89 (4.21 RPG / 4.86 RA)

WINNER: CHW wins 5-4 TARGET: CHW 5 - 4 KC (CHW) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	5	9
KC	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	4	10

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff3

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

KC Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.2

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-11

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak4L

CHW Season Quality

Record80-76

Win%0.513

Run Diff42

RD/Game0.269

KC Season Quality

Record67-89

Win%0.429

Run Diff-102

RD/Game-0.654

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.8325; margin adjustment: -0.3497; applied: True

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Miguel Vargas	3B	153	570	143	0.251	33	88	0.361	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	0.500	0.279	0.392	0.554	OK
Tommy Pham	DH	5	10	3	0.300	1	3	0.417	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.162	0.230	0.307	OK
Randal Grichuk	LF	95	217	64	0.295	13	38	0.323	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.286	0.315	0.530	OK
Munetaka Murakami	1B	120	428	87	0.203	32	69	0.344	5	4	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.201	0.334	0.460	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	149	553	148	0.268	15	58	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.256	0.321	0.434	OK
Kyle Teel	C	32	99	18	0.182	4	20	0.289	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.170	0.271	0.300	OK
Brenton Doyle	CF	29	80	20	0.250	2	7	0.250	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.260	0.297	0.357	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	147	546	112	0.205	31	87	0.292	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.194	0.275	0.354	OK
Braden Montgomery	RF	85	298	62	0.208	6	37	0.303	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.195	0.284	0.318	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	35	9	5	5	4	5	0.257

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	C	142	506	118	0.233	25	76	0.320	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.229	0.297	0.453	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	136	531	148	0.279	18	53	0.357	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.274	0.348	0.409	OK
Jac Caglianone	RF	137	487	136	0.279	23	71	0.332	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.278	0.328	0.423	OK
Maikel Garcia	3B	76	295	77	0.261	3	34	0.312	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.214	0.262	0.325	OK
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	107	392	96	0.245	14	54	0.331	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.190	0.273	0.404	OK
Salvador Perez	DH	145	555	127	0.229	19	73	0.273	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.207	0.233	0.306	OK
Michael Massey	2B	123	401	110	0.274	13	48	0.307	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.241	0.270	0.414	OK
Nick Loftin	LF	114	363	87	0.240	7	43	0.320	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.255	0.328	0.383	OK
Kyle Isbel	CF	91	278	60	0.216	6	24	0.262	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.131	0.171	0.192	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	37	10	4	4	0	5	0.270

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Anthony Kay	Starter	31	144.1	4.56	1.402	7.6	121	5.0	7	3	3	0	5	84	5.0	5	3
Grant Taylor	Closer	41	51.9	2.60	1.118	13.2	76	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	53	73.6	3.18	1.277	9.5	78	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	60	52.8	2.90	1.307	9.4	55	1.1	3	1	1	0	0	21	1.1	0	1

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Daniel Lynch IV	Starter	54	70.6	3.57	1.161	6.6	52	5.2	3	1	1	3	4	101	5.2	4	1
Steven Cruz	Closer	55	53.0	4.75	1.377	10.7	63	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Nate Pearson	Setup Man	24	23.5	3.45	1.277	9.6	25	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	56	53.7	6.54	1.676	9.6	57	1.1	4	3	3	1	0	33	1.1	0	3

Game Summary

CHW wins 5-4

Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves

CIN 73-84 (4.11 RPG / 5.13 RA)

6 - 9

ATL 92-66 (4.58 RPG / 3.88 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 9-6 TARGET: CIN 6 - 9 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	6	10
ATL	0	1	5	0	0	3	0	0	x	9	9

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.1

Avg Allowed7.2

Run Diff-41

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak2L

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs5.4

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff12

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak3W

CIN Season Quality

Record72-84

Win%0.462

Run Diff-163

RD/Game-1.045

ATL Season Quality

Record92-64

Win%0.590

Run Diff120

RD/Game0.769

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.699; margin adjustment: 2.7184; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carlos Jorge	RF	11	25	3	0.120	0	0	0.185	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.136	0.201	0.235	OK
Elly De La Cruz	SS	134	523	151	0.289	28	74	0.371	5	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.247	0.341	0.461	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	153	587	157	0.267	31	107	0.333	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.246	0.302	0.410	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	123	396	98	0.247	15	54	0.328	5	4	2	1	0	1	0	0.500	0.221	0.289	0.355	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	123	437	96	0.220	23	57	0.328	5	3	1	1	2	2	1	0.333	0.216	0.317	0.402	OK
Eugenio Suárez	3B	118	410	87	0.212	24	69	0.308	5	5	1	1	1	0	3	0.200	0.195	0.283	0.389	OK
Dane Myers	CF	98	275	70	0.255	6	25	0.337	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.230	0.294	0.338	OK
Héctor Rodríguez	DH	36	124	27	0.218	5	12	0.265	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.190	0.228	0.339	OK
Matt McLain	2B	123	417	77	0.185	15	39	0.272	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.150	0.219	0.260	OK
TEAM TOTALS									43	37	10	6	6	5	12	0.270

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	102	390	102	0.262	20	55	0.353	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.278	0.357	0.550	OK
Drake Baldwin	DH	132	520	147	0.283	24	77	0.358	5	4	2	1	6	1	0	0.500	0.308	0.371	0.491	OK
Matt Olson	1B	155	599	151	0.252	39	87	0.323	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.296	0.350	0.520	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	155	587	144	0.245	22	72	0.301	5	5	2	1	2	0	1	0.400	0.227	0.281	0.369	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	149	568	166	0.292	26	85	0.318	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.271	0.299	0.454	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	147	546	150	0.275	11	70	0.320	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.300	0.338	0.417	OK
Austin Riley	3B	152	538	119	0.221	17	69	0.294	4	4	0	1	0	0	2	0.000	0.211	0.270	0.339	OK
Sean Murphy	C	28	95	17	0.179	3	10	0.250	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.156	0.232	0.268	OK
Ha-Seong Kim	SS	41	118	14	0.119	0	9	0.212	4	3	0	1	0	0	2	0.000	0.112	0.205	0.144	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	33	9	9	9	6	6	0.273

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brandon Williamson	Starter	10	41.8	5.81	1.603	6.7	31	4.0	6	6	6	1	1	84	4.0	1	5
Emilio Pagán	Closer	42	39.5	3.65	1.063	9.8	43	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	23	1.0	0	0
Luis Mey	Setup Man	26	30.0	6.30	1.767	14.1	47	0.2	0	0	0	2	1	16	0.2	1	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	75	63.0	2.71	1.444	10.4	73	1.0	3	3	3	1	2	38	1.0	2	3
Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	43	38.1	5.91	1.680	8.5	36	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	54	45.0	3.20	1.200	10.8	54	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	8	0.1	1	0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
JR Ritchie	Starter	15	60.8	5.18	1.513	8.6	58	4.2	2	2	2	2	7	85	4.2	7	2
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	57	55.9	2.74	1.145	9.8	61	1.1	0	0	0	2	2	31	1.1	2	0
Dylan Lee	Setup Man	68	56.6	3.34	1.060	12.1	76	1.0	4	2	2	1	1	29	1.0	1	2
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	55	65.3	2.48	1.149	12.4	90	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	32	1.1	0	0
Dylan Dodd	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	46	41.3	2.62	1.017	10.9	50	0.2	3	2	2	0	2	17	0.2	2	2

Game Summary

ATL wins 9-6

Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox

CLE 82-75 (4.15 RPG / 4.13 RA)

3 - 4

BOS 84-73 (4.33 RPG / 3.83 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 4-3 TARGET: CLE 3 - 4 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	3	4
BOS	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	3

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs5.6

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff14

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak5W

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.0

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff-4

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak2L

CLE Season Quality

Record81-75

Win%0.519

Run Diff2

RD/Game0.013

BOS Season Quality

Record84-72

Win%0.538

Run Diff80

RD/Game0.513

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1268; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	CF	140	508	143	0.281	3	31	0.377	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.289	0.386	0.355	OK
José Ramírez	3B	116	440	104	0.236	12	51	0.324	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.269	0.336	0.411	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	123	462	134	0.290	15	64	0.363	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.263	0.339	0.428	OK
Jo Adell	DH	41	155	38	0.245	6	30	0.318	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.245	0.280	0.403	OK
Angel Martínez	LF	101	367	93	0.253	17	57	0.289	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.259	0.279	0.495	OK
David Fry	1B	77	167	32	0.192	7	17	0.289	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.193	0.279	0.365	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	115	418	101	0.242	15	55	0.333	3	2	1	0	0	1	1	0.500	0.227	0.309	0.450	OK
Austin Hedges	C	71	207	52	0.251	5	24	0.323	3	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.216	0.293	0.341	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	144	503	126	0.250	11	64	0.311	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.267	0.323	0.374	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	31	4	3	3	2	6	0.129

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Roman Anthony	LF	50	195	47	0.241	5	15	0.336	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.254	0.327	0.419	OK
Nick Sogard	1B	58	212	52	0.245	5	18	0.337	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.225	0.305	0.351	OK
Jahmai Jones	DH	28	50	18	0.360	4	9	0.418	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.117	0.183	0.260	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	148	561	142	0.253	23	73	0.334	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.195	0.281	0.353	OK
Adley Rutschman	C	27	99	19	0.192	4	10	0.252	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.211	0.269	0.357	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	142	480	119	0.248	13	61	0.330	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.302	0.366	0.426	OK
Andruw Monasterio	2B	96	293	70	0.239	6	38	0.297	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.205	0.257	0.330	OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	SS	51	150	37	0.247	2	16	0.315	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.221	0.285	0.291	OK
Nate Eaton	CF	18	45	6	0.133	1	5	0.278	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.142	0.266	0.248	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	30	3	4	4	3	10	0.100

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Parker Messick	Starter	30	171.8	2.67	1.077	9.7	186	6.0	1	3	3	2	8	99	6.0	8	3
Cade Smith	Closer	66	66.9	2.15	1.046	13.9	103	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	29	1.1	0	0
Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	64	48.0	3.00	1.375	10.1	54	1.2	2	1	1	1	2	24	0.2	2	1

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Payton Tolle	Starter	25	140.2	3.08	1.091	10.7	166	5.2	4	3	3	2	6	91	5.2	6	3
Aroldis Chapman	Closer	51	50.2	1.43	1.076	12.2	68	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.0	0	0
Erik Miller	Setup Man	17	16.2	3.33	1.420	15.6	28	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12	1.0	0	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	53	49.7	1.81	0.905	10.7	59	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	61	50.0	3.78	1.400	10.6	59	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

BOS wins 4-3

Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners

HOU 77-79 (4.41 RPG / 4.79 RA)

3 - 5

SEA 73-83 (4.06 RPG / 4.42 RA)

WINNER: SEA wins 5-3 TARGET: HOU 3 - 5 SEA (SEA) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	3	6
SEA	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	x	5	9

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs2.8

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff-18

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak3L

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.7

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff19

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

HOU Season Quality

Record77-79

Win%0.494

Run Diff-59

RD/Game-0.378

SEA Season Quality

Record73-83

Win%0.468

Run Diff-56

RD/Game-0.359

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2535; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	105	422	116	0.275	20	51	0.325	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.264	0.295	0.446	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	151	539	170	0.315	40	99	0.432	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.317	0.417	0.568	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	148	535	137	0.256	22	90	0.356	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.249	0.330	0.440	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	128	498	124	0.249	16	45	0.306	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.275	0.318	0.431	OK
Yainer Diaz	C	86	312	87	0.279	13	39	0.310	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.299	0.323	0.489	OK
Christian Walker	1B	148	544	121	0.222	25	80	0.296	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.183	0.245	0.316	OK
Taylor Trammell	LF	86	242	49	0.202	8	22	0.285	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.130	0.216	0.269	OK
Cam Smith	RF	142	489	102	0.209	20	53	0.273	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.159	0.212	0.317	OK
Brice Matthews	CF	72	208	40	0.192	7	21	0.242	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.195	0.246	0.332	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	6	3	3	2	3	0.182

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
J.P. Crawford	SS	110	392	87	0.222	13	38	0.338	5	3	2	1	0	2	1	0.667	0.222	0.304	0.364	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	148	551	154	0.279	26	76	0.376	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.279	0.350	0.501	OK
Dominic Canzone	DH	138	452	118	0.261	22	72	0.330	4	3	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.297	0.359	0.486	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	120	433	79	0.182	23	68	0.292	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.181	0.276	0.367	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	144	575	140	0.243	21	66	0.303	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.272	0.318	0.407	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	146	574	154	0.268	10	54	0.323	4	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.242	0.284	0.310	OK
Cole Young	2B	153	558	137	0.246	17	65	0.307	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.211	0.250	0.339	OK
Lazaro Montes	RF	14	38	8	0.211	4	9	0.250	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.185	0.228	0.422	OK
Brock Rodden	3B	23	60	12	0.200	0	4	0.300	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.201	0.301	0.286	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	31	9	5	5	5	5	0.290

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cristian Javier	Starter	16	59.6	5.44	1.493	8.6	57	5.0	6	3	3	3	2	100	5.0	2	3
Josh Hader	Closer	43	42.4	0.64	0.590	11.7	55	1.2	3	2	2	1	1	34	1.2	1	2
Logan VanWey	Setup Man	6	8.0	2.25	1.000	5.6	5	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	21	1.1	2	0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Logan Gilbert	Starter	30	173.8	3.78	1.087	10.0	194	5.2	6	3	3	1	3	93	5.2	3	3
Andrés Muñoz	Closer	60	53.6	4.20	1.269	14.9	89	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	21	2.0	0	0
José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	69	52.1	4.66	1.708	8.6	50	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	21	1.1	0	0

Game Summary

SEA wins 5-3

Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics

LAA 60-96 (4.01 RPG / 4.56 RA)

5 - 4

OAK 61-95 (4.29 RPG / 5.72 RA)

WINNER: LAA wins 5-4 TARGET: LAA 5 - 4 OAK (LAA) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAA	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	5	5
OAK	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	4	6

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff-14

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.1

Avg Allowed6.5

Run Diff-34

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak6L

LAA Season Quality

Record60-96

Win%0.385

Run Diff-87

RD/Game-0.558

OAK Season Quality

Record61-95

Win%0.391

Run Diff-223

RD/Game-1.429

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6836; margin adjustment: -0.2871; applied: True

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	151	598	142	0.237	26	74	0.323	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.193	0.282	0.342	OK
Mike Trout	DH	137	494	119	0.241	21	53	0.381	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.237	0.381	0.398	OK
Vaughn Grissom	1B	110	397	94	0.237	12	65	0.302	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.225	0.282	0.381	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	74	262	59	0.225	7	29	0.270	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.218	0.265	0.313	OK
Moisés Ballesteros	C	40	144	30	0.208	3	12	0.261	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.223	0.283	0.337	OK
Jose Siri	CF	84	214	50	0.234	9	30	0.283	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.244	0.289	0.420	OK
Wade Meckler	RF	86	277	80	0.289	3	27	0.360	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.278	0.342	0.354	OK
Christian Moore	2B	32	112	19	0.170	1	11	0.230	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.192	0.247	0.273	OK
Bryce Teodosio	LF	20	50	10	0.200	0	2	0.245	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.100	0.155	0.165	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	5	5	5	3	5	0.156

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Henry Bolte	LF	109	389	106	0.272	11	35	0.354	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.260	0.324	0.391	OK
Shea Langeliers	DH	100	400	105	0.262	23	55	0.329	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.256	0.312	0.447	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	141	447	102	0.228	17	59	0.317	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.220	0.303	0.405	OK
Zack Gelof	3B	101	373	94	0.252	19	50	0.314	4	3	1	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.233	0.276	0.403	OK
Tommy White	1B	49	176	43	0.244	3	9	0.264	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.236	0.261	0.330	OK
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer	2B	16	60	25	0.417	1	4	0.435	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.390	0.405	0.565	OK
Jonah Heim	C	88	304	61	0.201	12	34	0.253	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.178	0.223	0.297	OK
Alika Williams	SS	73	207	54	0.261	4	15	0.295	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.254	0.288	0.421	OK
Denzel Clarke	CF	27	69	11	0.159	0	6	0.227	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.161	0.230	0.211	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	6	4	4	2	8	0.182

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Yusei Kikuchi	Starter	12	56.4	5.11	1.578	9.3	58	5.0	5	4	4	2	6	86	5.0	6	4
Ben Joyce	Closer	16	14.4	4.38	1.181	11.2	18	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.1	1	0
Ryan Watson	Setup Man	17	13.0	2.77	1.385	13.8	20	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Tayler Saucedo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	25	15.2	3.55	1.316	14.2	24	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8	0.2	1	0
José Fermin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	50	45.0	3.60	1.489	12.2	61	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brady Basso	Starter	24	36.5	4.93	1.616	6.9	28	4.1	5	5	5	2	1	78	4.1	1	5
Seth Johnson	Reliever	8	11.3	4.78	1.327	12.7	16	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.2	1	0
Chris Roycroft	Reliever	7	10.5	1.71	1.524	6.0	7	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Hogan Harris	Reliever	71	55.9	4.03	1.717	13.7	85	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Luis Medina	Reliever	55	64.5	3.21	1.395	12.6	90	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

LAA wins 5-4

Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs

MIA 76-80 (4.44 RPG / 4.46 RA)

4 - 6

CHC 87-69 (5.35 RPG / 4.38 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 6-4 TARGET: MIA 4 - 6 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIA	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	4	8
CHC	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	1	x	6	8

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.2

Avg Allowed6.3

Run Diff-11

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak3L

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs6.1

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff22

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

MIA Season Quality

Record76-80

Win%0.487

Run Diff-3

RD/Game-0.019

CHC Season Quality

Record87-69

Win%0.558

Run Diff152

RD/Game0.974

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9358; margin adjustment: 0.393; applied: True

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Heriberto Hernández	LF	122	425	97	0.228	24	64	0.309	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.226	0.290	0.366	OK
Otto Lopez	SS	152	607	185	0.305	11	71	0.348	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.270	0.318	0.413	OK
Kyle Stowers	DH	118	438	104	0.237	19	61	0.328	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.220	0.306	0.394	OK
Javier Sanoja	3B	127	436	127	0.291	10	67	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.265	0.298	0.459	OK
Agustín Ramírez	C	62	204	48	0.235	5	23	0.314	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.245	0.308	0.406	OK
Esteury Ruiz	CF	84	198	44	0.222	6	16	0.305	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.213	0.273	0.363	OK
Griffin Conine	RF	84	262	67	0.256	17	38	0.341	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.249	0.310	0.487	OK
Deyvison De Los Santos	1B	11	25	5	0.200	0	0	0.200	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.201	0.211	0.291	OK
Jared Serna	2B	7	14	3	0.214	0	2	0.250	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.215	0.263	0.363	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	35	8	4	4	1	5	0.229

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	154	599	169	0.282	45	107	0.373	5	3	0	1	1	1	2	0.000	0.291	0.347	0.624	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	136	520	140	0.269	25	85	0.367	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.256	0.332	0.435	OK
Michael Busch	1B	152	571	137	0.240	19	75	0.351	5	4	1	1	2	1	1	0.250	0.252	0.361	0.448	OK
Michael Conforto	DH	103	253	62	0.245	15	43	0.329	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.276	0.344	0.527	OK
Ian Happ	LF	145	517	115	0.222	24	67	0.328	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.249	0.343	0.464	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	151	602	160	0.266	8	71	0.315	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.254	0.294	0.322	OK
Pedro Ramirez	3B	71	219	59	0.269	6	32	0.325	4	3	2	1	0	1	1	0.667	0.278	0.333	0.430	OK
Carson Kelly	C	111	368	97	0.264	10	57	0.342	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.290	0.355	0.390	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	117	402	88	0.219	17	60	0.304	4	3	1	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.251	0.344	0.481	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	31	8	6	6	6	9	0.258

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Janson Junk	Starter	24	111.2	4.61	1.376	6.3	78	4.2	6	5	5	4	5	105	4.2	5	5
Calvin Faucher	Closer	66	57.4	3.92	1.498	10.8	69	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	20	1.0	2	0
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	62	55.9	3.54	1.252	12.6	78	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	17	17.8	5.56	1.573	7.1	14	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	27	1.1	1	1

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shota Imanaga	Starter	30	165.3	3.87	1.125	8.9	164	5.1	6	3	3	1	5	89	5.1	5	3
Jacob Webb	Closer	66	57.9	3.89	1.416	10.9	70	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	18	13.3	6.09	1.880	12.2	18	1.2	1	1	1	0	0	19	1.2	0	1
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	29	25.0	3.96	1.280	10.4	29	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

CHC wins 6-4

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies

MIL 98-59 (5.13 RPG / 3.86 RA)

7 - 4

PHI 87-70 (4.48 RPG / 4.28 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 7-4 TARGET: MIL 7 - 4 PHI (MIL) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
MIL	3	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	7	9
PHI	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	4	3

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs6.8

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff32

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak3W

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff-9

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

MIL Season Quality

Record98-58

Win%0.628

Run Diff202

RD/Game1.295

PHI Season Quality

Record86-70

Win%0.551

Run Diff29

RD/Game0.186

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.1486; margin adjustment: -0.4824; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Garrett Mitchell	CF	131	429	112	0.261	10	58	0.350	5	4	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.268	0.343	0.428	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	119	499	144	0.289	24	70	0.347	5	5	1	1	3	0	2	0.200	0.254	0.313	0.439	OK
Brice Turang	2B	141	546	148	0.271	19	94	0.369	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.277	0.377	0.442	OK
William Contreras	C	140	544	147	0.270	18	87	0.340	5	5	3	1	0	0	0	0.600	0.263	0.328	0.474	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	132	444	119	0.268	25	81	0.392	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.257	0.392	0.485	OK
Christian Yelich	DH	109	412	95	0.231	11	55	0.311	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.213	0.283	0.329	OK
Luis Lara	RF	51	172	43	0.250	1	24	0.311	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	0.667	0.248	0.306	0.329	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	65	207	58	0.280	3	32	0.345	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.303	0.370	0.375	OK
David Hamilton	3B	107	323	77	0.238	4	26	0.301	4	4	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.225	0.280	0.305	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	39	9	7	7	3	9	0.231

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kyle Schwarber	DH	148	557	130	0.233	44	94	0.352	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.163	0.310	0.359	OK
Trea Turner	SS	148	614	149	0.243	19	58	0.298	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.232	0.304	0.334	OK
Bryce Harper	RF	154	550	149	0.271	28	85	0.383	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.261	0.365	0.458	OK
Luis Arraez	2B	42	165	47	0.285	2	20	0.318	5	2	1	1	0	3	0	0.500	0.263	0.312	0.357	OK
Alec Bohm	1B	146	546	138	0.253	15	86	0.318	5	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.261	0.328	0.379	OK
Bryson Stott	3B	148	513	127	0.248	10	64	0.325	5	4	1	1	2	1	0	0.250	0.232	0.311	0.362	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	115	395	84	0.213	11	49	0.288	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.167	0.233	0.272	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	146	507	132	0.260	17	58	0.305	4	3	0	1	1	1	3	0.000	0.191	0.231	0.292	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	137	404	105	0.260	3	40	0.308	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.251	0.300	0.374	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	33	3	4	4	8	9	0.091

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Dustin May	Starter	8	30.5	5.61	1.475	9.1	31	4.2	2	2	2	2	4	85	4.2	4	2
Trevor Megill	Closer	60	58.5	2.15	0.889	10.3	67	1.1	1	2	2	3	2	33	1.0	2	2
Abner Uribe	Setup Man	59	52.9	2.21	1.115	10.2	60	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	21	1.0	0	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	73	78.1	3.57	1.498	12.9	112	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	21	15.5	6.97	1.935	7.0	12	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	29	1.1	2	0
DL Hall	Reliever	45	52.3	2.24	1.166	10.5	61	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	12	0.0	0	0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zack Wheeler	Starter	26	148.7	3.03	1.069	10.7	177	6.0	5	3	3	3	7	103	6.0	7	2
Jhoan Duran	Closer	57	55.4	1.46	0.975	12.8	79	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	59	51.2	3.69	1.133	12.8	73	1.2	2	2	2	0	0	15	1.2	0	2
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	14	8.0	9.00	2.000	12.4	11	1.1	2	2	2	0	0	23	0.1	0	2

Game Summary

MIL wins 7-4

Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants

MIN 73-84 (4.55 RPG / 4.97 RA)

5 - 3

SF 66-92 (4.23 RPG / 4.71 RA)

WINNER: MIN wins 5-3 TARGET: MIN 5 - 3 SF (MIN) Confidence: 51.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	R	H
MIN	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	5	10
SF	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	2

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff-11

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

SF Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff-9

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

MIN Season Quality

Record73-84

Win%0.465

Run Diff-67

RD/Game-0.427

SF Season Quality

Record65-92

Win%0.414

Run Diff-81

RD/Game-0.516

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1244; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Luke Keaschall	RF	146	511	141	0.276	9	46	0.366	6	5	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.280	0.344	0.377	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	148	565	143	0.253	24	81	0.300	6	5	1	1	3	1	0	0.200	0.292	0.325	0.454	OK
Kody Clemens	2B	138	513	121	0.236	26	76	0.297	6	6	2	1	2	0	2	0.333	0.206	0.258	0.368	OK
Josh Bell	DH	149	551	142	0.258	20	91	0.320	6	6	1	0	0	0	2	0.167	0.289	0.338	0.423	OK
Walker Jenkins	CF	19	66	14	0.212	3	8	0.297	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.257	0.314	0.416	OK
Emmanuel Rodriguez	LF	10	36	7	0.194	2	5	0.216	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.198	0.222	0.457	OK
Royce Lewis	1B	120	444	101	0.227	14	54	0.290	5	4	1	1	0	1	2	0.250	0.218	0.268	0.343	OK
Victor Caratini	C	102	320	71	0.222	7	43	0.311	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.231	0.288	0.310	OK
Ryan Kreidler	SS	85	237	51	0.215	8	28	0.271	5	5	3	1	0	0	1	0.600	0.210	0.268	0.416	OK
TEAM TOTALS									49	46	10	5	5	3	12	0.217

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drew Gilbert	CF	117	325	79	0.243	11	43	0.312	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.272	0.325	0.535	OK
Jonah Cox	2B	46	131	37	0.282	4	15	0.324	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.280	0.325	0.411	OK
Victor Bericoto	1B	33	95	24	0.253	5	15	0.268	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.249	0.270	0.445	OK
Turner Hill	LF	28	92	22	0.239	1	15	0.330	5	3	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.235	0.318	0.342	OK
Bo Davidson	DH	1	4	1	0.250	0	0	0.250	5	3	1	1	0	2	1	0.333	0.248	0.257	0.274	OK
Shay Whitcomb	3B	22	76	15	0.197	2	6	0.197	5	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.120	0.126	0.221	OK
Scott Bandura	RF	8	19	3	0.158	0	0	0.200	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.175	0.215	0.251	OK
Drew Cavanaugh	C	51	133	31	0.233	1	10	0.315	5	4	1	1	2	1	0	0.250	0.185	0.270	0.291	OK
Christian Koss	SS	60	184	43	0.234	4	12	0.273	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.206	0.242	0.291	OK
TEAM TOTALS									44	37	2	3	3	5	9	0.054

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Taj Bradley	Starter	30	170.0	3.86	1.247	10.5	199	6.0	2	3	3	3	6	106	6.0	6	3
Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	54	40.7	4.42	1.671	10.8	49	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	0.2	1	0
Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	19	14.9	2.42	1.275	15.7	26	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	21	16.5	2.18	1.273	10.9	20	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Taylor Rogers	Reliever	62	45.5	5.14	2.000	10.5	53	2.1	0	0	0	1	1	34	0.0	1	0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Anthony Molina	Starter	5	22.3	4.04	1.076	9.3	23	5.0	4	3	3	2	7	95	5.0	7	3
Dylan Smith	Closer	39	32.8	4.12	1.646	11.5	42	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Trent Harris	Setup Man	19	19.6	2.30	1.173	12.4	27	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	0.2	0	0
Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	22	25.4	5.67	1.850	7.4	21	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1
Jason Foley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	22	21.2	5.09	1.745	5.9	14	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	7	5.6	4.82	2.321	4.8	3	2.1	1	0	0	0	1	33	0.0	1	0
Cesar Perdomo	Reliever	4	18.4	3.91	1.576	5.9	12	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	7	0.0	1	1

Game Summary

MIN wins 5-3

New York Mets @ Texas Rangers

NYM 71-85 (4.28 RPG / 4.54 RA)

4 - 6

TEX 78-78 (4.19 RPG / 4.4 RA)

WINNER: TEX wins 6-4 TARGET: NYM 4 - 6 TEX (TEX) Confidence: 60.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	1	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	5
TEX	1	0	0	0	3	0	1	1	x	6	11

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff-1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff6

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

NYM Season Quality

Record71-85

Win%0.455

Run Diff-41

RD/Game-0.263

TEX Season Quality

Record78-78

Win%0.500

Run Diff-34

RD/Game-0.218

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2143; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Francisco Lindor	SS	97	390	88	0.226	20	48	0.307	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.185	0.253	0.327	OK
Juan Soto	LF	103	374	103	0.275	26	65	0.388	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.260	0.354	0.482	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	150	602	159	0.264	17	76	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.244	0.285	0.380	OK
Mark Vientos	1B	81	260	57	0.219	13	39	0.263	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.238	0.289	0.414	OK
Carson Benge	RF	146	561	153	0.273	19	60	0.337	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.279	0.332	0.428	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	131	465	104	0.224	14	48	0.291	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.217	0.286	0.301	OK
Francisco Alvarez	DH	104	350	79	0.226	15	38	0.306	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.223	0.287	0.373	OK
A.J. Ewing	CF	113	413	107	0.259	10	40	0.328	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.262	0.323	0.378	OK
Luis Torrens	C	81	243	60	0.247	9	40	0.304	3	3	1	1	0	0	2	0.333	0.256	0.297	0.424	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	32	5	4	4	1	9	0.156

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Wyatt Langford	LF	104	389	95	0.244	17	42	0.342	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.272	0.397	0.445	OK
Corey Seager	SS	95	359	83	0.231	18	47	0.321	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.223	0.294	0.373	OK
Josh Jung	3B	100	387	114	0.295	11	39	0.360	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	0.500	0.272	0.322	0.462	OK
Jake Burger	1B	148	533	124	0.233	27	88	0.306	5	4	2	1	3	1	0	0.500	0.216	0.307	0.425	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	149	570	148	0.260	14	61	0.325	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.236	0.294	0.364	OK
Ezequiel Duran	CF	145	518	137	0.264	17	83	0.325	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.245	0.300	0.390	OK
Justin Foscue	2B	89	217	59	0.272	11	34	0.321	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.201	0.251	0.352	OK
Elias Díaz	DH	63	190	45	0.237	5	28	0.264	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.248	0.275	0.399	OK
Danny Jansen	C	59	179	36	0.201	6	23	0.292	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.333	0.240	0.303	0.383	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	35	11	6	6	5	9	0.314

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sean Manaea	Starter	31	134.0	4.90	1.366	8.9	132	5.2	7	4	4	4	6	120	5.2	6	2
Nathan Lavender	Setup Man	18	14.0	2.57	1.143	14.8	23	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Jonathan Pintaro	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	21	28.0	4.82	1.393	9.6	30	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	24	1.0	1	2
Dedniel Núñez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	16	16.3	3.87	1.043	8.3	15	0.1	1	1	1	1	1	11	0.1	1	2

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
MacKenzie Gore	Starter	32	161.7	4.79	1.385	9.6	172	4.2	3	2	2	1	3	77	4.2	3	2
Jacob Latz	Closer	55	64.9	1.80	0.801	10.8	78	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0
Jakob Junis	Setup Man	49	47.7	3.21	1.258	7.0	37	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	23	1.1	1	2
Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	22	14.7	5.51	1.905	13.5	22	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8	0.2	1	0
Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	70	59.0	3.81	1.458	8.8	58	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

TEX wins 6-4

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers

SD 87-69 (4.42 RPG / 4.16 RA)

4 - 6

LAD 96-60 (5.0 RPG / 3.76 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 6-4 TARGET: SD 4 - 6 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	4	7
LAD	2	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	6	11

SD Recent Form

Win%0.900

Avg Runs7.1

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff24

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak5W

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs5.2

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff24

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak4W

SD Season Quality

Record87-69

Win%0.558

Run Diff41

RD/Game0.263

LAD Season Quality

Record96-60

Win%0.615

Run Diff193

RD/Game1.237

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.593; margin adjustment: 0.2491; applied: True

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	152	607	173	0.285	25	80	0.353	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.266	0.326	0.546	OK
Dustin Harris	LF	19	68	24	0.353	0	13	0.375	5	3	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.306	0.349	0.417	OK
Manny Machado	3B	152	567	124	0.219	28	84	0.307	5	4	2	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.199	0.278	0.337	OK
Ty France	1B	121	418	126	0.301	21	70	0.364	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.304	0.345	0.493	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	152	595	152	0.255	26	86	0.304	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.269	0.306	0.453	OK
Austin Hays	DH	19	47	14	0.298	2	4	0.298	5	3	1	1	0	2	1	0.333	0.220	0.232	0.356	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	148	507	116	0.229	12	56	0.328	5	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.258	0.349	0.403	OK
Luis Campusano	C	67	205	54	0.263	8	29	0.360	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.217	0.302	0.374	OK
Jake Cronenworth	2B	102	358	82	0.229	7	36	0.310	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.296	0.360	0.492	OK
TEAM TOTALS									43	34	7	4	4	8	8	0.206

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Mookie Betts	SS	115	453	118	0.260	22	67	0.323	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.298	0.357	0.543	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	147	555	162	0.292	16	65	0.369	5	4	2	1	0	1	0	0.500	0.257	0.323	0.371	OK
Will Smith	C	66	222	55	0.248	9	32	0.339	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.191	0.283	0.374	OK
Max Muncy	3B	142	468	119	0.254	29	76	0.349	5	4	3	1	3	1	0	0.750	0.287	0.353	0.526	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	144	511	120	0.235	17	70	0.329	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.190	0.293	0.380	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	117	417	111	0.266	15	62	0.334	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.262	0.323	0.396	OK
Josue De Paula	DH	9	28	8	0.286	1	7	0.459	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.284	0.437	0.479	OK
Andy Pages	CF	126	489	133	0.272	21	79	0.338	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.267	0.328	0.449	OK
Tommy Edman	2B	75	270	65	0.241	7	36	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.206	0.259	0.359	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	11	6	6	4	3	0.306

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael King	Starter	31	178.2	3.08	1.178	7.8	154	6.0	8	3	3	2	3	120	6.0	3	4
Mason Miller	Closer	63	63.5	1.28	0.882	17.4	123	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	64	60.9	2.07	1.117	11.2	76	1.1	3	3	3	1	0	31	1.0	0	2

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brock Stewart	Starter	25	22.1	2.44	1.041	9.4	23	4.1	3	2	2	4	5	92	4.1	5	2
Tanner Scott	Closer	67	56.3	3.04	1.101	12.5	78	2.0	1	0	0	0	0	38	2.0	0	0
Alex Vesia	Setup Man	69	44.5	3.44	1.371	14.0	69	0.2	2	0	0	1	1	18	0.2	1	0
Jack Dreyer	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	64	51.0	3.88	1.353	12.2	69	1.0	1	2	2	1	0	20	1.0	0	2
Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	28	19.5	4.15	1.385	12.9	28	1.0	0	0	0	2	2	21	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-4

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

STL 76-81 (4.48 RPG / 4.64 RA)

4 - 5

PIT 80-77 (4.78 RPG / 4.58 RA)

WINNER: PIT wins 5-4 TARGET: STL 4 - 5 PIT (PIT) Confidence: 53.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	4	8
PIT	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	x	5	4

STL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed5.4

Run Diff-12

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff-5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak4W

STL Season Quality

Record76-80

Win%0.487

Run Diff-23

RD/Game-0.147

PIT Season Quality

Record79-77

Win%0.506

Run Diff29

RD/Game0.186

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3334; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	130	507	123	0.243	17	49	0.341	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.237	0.309	0.353	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	151	574	140	0.244	17	66	0.352	4	4	2	0	0	0	2	0.500	0.250	0.315	0.528	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	151	574	161	0.280	23	108	0.345	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.239	0.298	0.436	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	149	574	157	0.274	26	95	0.333	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.204	0.271	0.340	OK
Leonardo Bernal	C	18	74	23	0.311	4	17	0.354	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.277	0.316	0.490	OK
Bryan Torres	LF	60	151	36	0.238	3	17	0.308	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.218	0.289	0.301	OK
Thomas Saggese	3B	46	146	36	0.247	4	13	0.302	4	2	0	1	1	1	1	0.000	0.229	0.284	0.342	OK
Nathan Church	CF	123	412	105	0.255	10	49	0.299	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.268	0.309	0.373	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	125	451	106	0.235	5	55	0.306	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.134	0.205	0.196	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	8	4	4	1	9	0.235

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Konnor Griffin	SS	73	288	77	0.267	5	31	0.322	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.259	0.302	0.365	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	142	553	144	0.260	33	93	0.331	4	4	1	1	3	0	2	0.250	0.286	0.351	0.556	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	153	569	150	0.264	17	71	0.367	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.250	0.331	0.422	OK
Oneil Cruz	CF	92	357	100	0.280	20	67	0.367	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.303	0.367	0.559	OK
Rafael Flores Jr.	C	40	133	38	0.286	10	22	0.349	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.341	0.399	0.623	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	DH	99	376	102	0.271	18	72	0.335	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.265	0.330	0.428	OK
Ronny Simon	RF	15	48	15	0.312	1	4	0.353	3	2	0	1	0	1	2	0.000	0.185	0.234	0.322	OK
Spencer Horwitz	1B	109	371	92	0.248	10	47	0.346	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	0.500	0.265	0.352	0.356	OK
Jacob Gonzalez	3B	43	108	21	0.194	2	9	0.221	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.232	0.276	0.334	OK
TEAM TOTALS									30	28	4	5	5	2	12	0.143

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andre Pallante	Starter	27	148.2	3.77	1.282	6.3	104	5.1	2	2	2	1	10	89	5.1	10	2
Riley O'Brien	Closer	66	61.2	4.26	1.340	9.4	64	2.1	0	0	0	0	1	36	2.1	1	0
George Soriano	Setup Man	69	56.6	4.93	1.608	10.2	64	0.1	2	3	3	1	1	14	0.1	1	3

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jared Jones	Starter	19	89.5	4.22	1.207	11.0	109	5.0	3	1	1	0	4	76	5.0	4	1
Mason Montgomery	Closer	66	58.3	2.62	1.132	15.3	99	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	19	1.0	1	2
Luke Weaver	Setup Man	15	12.6	6.43	1.587	10.7	15	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	65	58.5	3.69	1.214	11.7	76	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	64	75.3	3.23	1.315	11.8	99	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

PIT wins 5-4

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

TB 95-61 (4.53 RPG / 4.01 RA)

3 - 4

NYY 90-66 (4.58 RPG / 3.69 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 4-3 TARGET: TB 3 - 4 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 53.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
TB	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	3	4
NYY	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	4	7

TB Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed2.1

Run Diff25

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak2W

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.6

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff13

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

TB Season Quality

Record95-60

Win%0.613

Run Diff83

RD/Game0.535

NYY Season Quality

Record89-66

Win%0.574

Run Diff137

RD/Game0.884

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0823; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	148	589	173	0.294	22	81	0.361	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.191	0.258	0.301	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	148	560	156	0.279	22	92	0.360	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.260	0.327	0.496	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	154	588	163	0.277	41	97	0.364	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.258	0.340	0.442	OK
Liam Hicks	C	36	105	32	0.305	4	19	0.398	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.296	0.373	0.415	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	143	556	172	0.309	0	38	0.336	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.314	0.338	0.366	OK
Jonny DeLuca	CF	96	320	84	0.262	9	46	0.293	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.254	0.281	0.396	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	61	199	52	0.261	13	30	0.324	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.320	0.388	0.638	OK
Jorge Mateo	SS	22	64	9	0.141	1	7	0.188	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.164	0.200	0.250	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	113	329	77	0.234	10	53	0.330	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.233	0.325	0.416	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	4	3	3	3	10	0.118

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ben Rice	DH	144	538	142	0.264	38	91	0.365	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.250	0.355	0.496	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	125	471	129	0.274	16	71	0.348	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.287	0.347	0.441	OK
Heliot Ramos	RF	31	91	15	0.165	4	10	0.303	5	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.231	0.298	0.426	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	38	144	40	0.278	7	15	0.309	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.237	0.262	0.424	OK
George Lombard Jr.	SS	36	129	31	0.240	5	17	0.296	5	5	2	1	1	0	2	0.400	0.246	0.294	0.428	OK
Spencer Jones	CF	77	239	59	0.247	11	39	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.229	0.282	0.467	OK
Anthony Volpe	2B	63	203	50	0.246	2	24	0.326	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.249	0.320	0.349	OK
Ali Sánchez	C	36	76	19	0.250	1	8	0.275	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.131	0.146	0.181	OK
José Caballero	3B	120	397	93	0.234	14	50	0.290	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.231	0.285	0.366	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	37	7	4	4	2	8	0.189

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nick Martinez	Starter	29	167.6	3.01	1.092	5.4	101	6.0	5	1	1	0	5	100	6.0	5	1
Bryan Baker	Closer	61	58.7	1.38	0.886	9.5	62	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	69	61.6	2.92	1.055	9.1	62	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	20	0.0	1	1
Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	39	31.1	2.60	0.965	12.2	42	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	21	0.2	0	0
Alex Cook	Reliever	4	5.2	5.19	1.154	8.7	5	0.1	1	2	2	0	1	7	0.0	1	2

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Carlos Rodón	Starter	15	74.7	3.01	1.151	10.0	83	5.2	1	1	1	1	7	90	5.2	7	1
David Bednar	Closer	61	61.9	2.76	1.115	10.8	74	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	23	1.0	1	1
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	79	61.6	2.63	1.477	14.0	96	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	60	73.9	1.83	1.204	8.3	68	1.2	0	0	0	1	0	29	1.1	0	0
Tim Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	64	46.6	5.21	1.309	4.8	25	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	11	0.0	1	1

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-3

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

TB 95-61 (4.53 RPG / 4.01 RA)

4 - 5

NYY 90-66 (4.58 RPG / 3.69 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 5-4 TARGET: TB 4 - 5 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 52.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	4	7
NYY	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	5	10

TB Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed2.1

Run Diff25

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak2W

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.6

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff13

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

TB Season Quality

Record95-60

Win%0.613

Run Diff83

RD/Game0.535

NYY Season Quality

Record89-66

Win%0.574

Run Diff137

RD/Game0.884

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0823; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	148	589	173	0.294	22	81	0.361	5	3	0	1	1	2	2	0.000	0.191	0.258	0.301	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	148	560	156	0.279	22	92	0.360	5	4	1	1	3	1	1	0.250	0.260	0.327	0.496	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	154	588	163	0.277	41	97	0.364	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.258	0.340	0.443	OK
Liam Hicks	C	36	105	32	0.305	4	19	0.398	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.296	0.373	0.415	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	143	556	172	0.309	0	38	0.336	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.314	0.339	0.366	OK
Jonny DeLuca	CF	96	320	84	0.262	9	46	0.293	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.254	0.281	0.397	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	61	199	52	0.261	13	30	0.324	4	3	2	1	0	0	1	0.667	0.320	0.389	0.638	OK
Jorge Mateo	SS	22	64	9	0.141	1	7	0.188	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.164	0.200	0.250	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	113	329	77	0.234	10	53	0.330	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.233	0.325	0.416	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	34	7	4	4	5	7	0.206

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ben Rice	DH	144	538	142	0.264	38	91	0.365	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.250	0.356	0.497	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	125	471	129	0.274	16	71	0.348	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.287	0.347	0.441	OK
Heliot Ramos	RF	31	91	15	0.165	4	10	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.231	0.298	0.426	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	38	144	40	0.278	7	15	0.309	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.237	0.262	0.425	OK
George Lombard Jr.	SS	36	129	31	0.240	5	17	0.296	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.247	0.294	0.428	OK
Spencer Jones	CF	77	239	59	0.247	11	39	0.314	4	4	3	1	2	0	0	0.750	0.229	0.282	0.468	OK
Anthony Volpe	2B	63	203	50	0.246	2	24	0.326	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.249	0.320	0.349	OK
Ali Sánchez	C	36	76	19	0.250	1	8	0.275	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.131	0.146	0.182	OK
José Caballero	3B	120	397	93	0.234	14	50	0.290	4	4	3	1	3	0	0	0.750	0.231	0.286	0.366	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	36	10	5	5	0	5	0.278

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Drew Rasmussen	Starter	29	164.4	2.74	0.931	8.9	163	6.0	5	2	2	0	5	100	6.0	5	2
Bryan Baker	Closer	61	58.7	1.38	0.886	9.5	62	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	22	1.0	0	2
Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	39	31.1	2.60	0.965	12.2	42	1.2	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Max Fried	Starter	19	103.2	2.70	1.008	8.7	100	6.0	6	3	3	5	5	114	6.0	5	3
David Bednar	Closer	61	61.9	2.76	1.115	10.8	74	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	12	1.0	0	1
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	79	61.6	2.63	1.477	14.0	96	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	60	73.9	1.83	1.204	8.3	68	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 5-4

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

TOR 77-80 (4.03 RPG / 4.3 RA)

4 - 5

BAL 76-81 (4.44 RPG / 4.63 RA)

WINNER: BAL wins 5-4 TARGET: TOR 4 - 5 BAL (BAL) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	8
BAL	2	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	x	5	7

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-3

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

TOR Season Quality

Record77-80

Win%0.490

Run Diff-43

RD/Game-0.274

BAL Season Quality

Record76-81

Win%0.484

Run Diff-30

RD/Game-0.191

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.077; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Brett Bateman	CF	38	150	48	0.320	2	11	0.394	5	5	1	1	2	0	1	0.200	0.306	0.379	0.407	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	137	458	111	0.242	9	57	0.288	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.232	0.256	0.332	OK
Ernie Clement	2B	152	573	151	0.264	9	47	0.290	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.232	0.260	0.332	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	140	529	139	0.263	9	56	0.332	4	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.261	0.337	0.354	OK
Alejandro Kirk	C	73	265	75	0.283	10	42	0.350	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.290	0.360	0.420	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	150	553	130	0.235	33	89	0.310	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.234	0.305	0.439	OK
Nathan Lukes	RF	117	393	108	0.275	10	40	0.322	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.276	0.321	0.373	OK
Myles Straw	CF	119	283	67	0.237	3	25	0.294	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.241	0.299	0.342	OK
George Springer	DH	120	451	113	0.251	15	53	0.325	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.231	0.298	0.351	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	4	4	1	7	0.229

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Colton Cowser	CF	122	324	73	0.225	12	36	0.310	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.242	0.325	0.358	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	151	601	136	0.226	23	58	0.310	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.247	0.313	0.443	OK
Jeremiah Jackson	2B	84	259	56	0.216	8	36	0.241	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.206	0.225	0.348	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	154	577	154	0.267	40	108	0.360	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.258	0.338	0.553	OK
Samuel Basallo	C	109	359	80	0.223	18	54	0.288	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.214	0.272	0.390	OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	3B	52	179	46	0.257	9	34	0.304	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.264	0.299	0.494	OK
Leody Taveras	CF	128	419	90	0.215	8	54	0.283	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.209	0.271	0.316	OK
Dylan Beavers	LF	95	305	71	0.233	7	38	0.303	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.213	0.281	0.336	OK
Coby Mayo	3B	121	393	90	0.229	24	63	0.296	3	3	2	1	0	0	0	0.667	0.232	0.302	0.465	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	7	5	5	3	3	0.226

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Max Scherzer	Starter	16	70.8	6.23	1.398	6.9	54	5.0	6	5	5	2	3	93	5.0	3	5
Louis Varland	Closer	70	71.4	1.39	1.092	12.0	95	2.0	1	0	0	0	0	28	2.0	0	0
Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	73	65.1	1.94	1.260	5.4	39	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Chris Bassitt	Starter	19	92.8	4.85	1.616	7.0	72	5.0	8	4	4	1	4	98	5.0	4	4
Andrew Kittredge	Closer	54	42.2	4.05	1.540	8.3	39	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Rico Garcia	Setup Man	73	56.2	3.04	1.085	10.9	68	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8	0.2	1	0
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	65	39.3	2.75	1.145	10.1	44	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Josh Walker	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	29	21.9	2.05	1.461	11.1	27	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

BAL wins 5-4

Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers

WAS 74-84 (5.08 RPG / 5.04 RA)

3 - 4

DET 74-84 (4.47 RPG / 4.01 RA)

WINNER: DET wins 4-3 TARGET: WAS 3 - 4 DET (DET) Confidence: 57.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
WAS	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3
DET	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	1	0	4	10

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff-2

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

DET Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.9

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff16

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

WAS Season Quality

Record73-84

Win%0.465

Run Diff5

RD/Game0.032

DET Season Quality

Record74-83

Win%0.471

Run Diff75

RD/Game0.478

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3898; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	RF	130	495	131	0.265	30	76	0.389	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.241	0.345	0.406	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	155	586	146	0.249	22	88	0.301	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.240	0.282	0.431	OK
Dylan Crews	CF	102	386	86	0.223	12	43	0.288	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.226	0.276	0.369	OK
CJ Abrams	2B	147	562	146	0.260	31	99	0.334	5	5	1	1	3	0	2	0.200	0.248	0.309	0.469	OK
Andrés Chaparro	1B	72	183	47	0.257	11	37	0.346	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.255	0.332	0.492	OK
Jorbit Vivas	3B	112	302	74	0.245	3	30	0.336	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.258	0.347	0.349	OK
Yohandy Morales	DH	13	36	11	0.306	3	8	0.306	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.297	0.305	0.626	OK
Keibert Ruiz	C	98	322	91	0.283	10	47	0.320	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.253	0.282	0.395	OK
Nasim Nuñez	SS	132	421	88	0.209	1	36	0.290	4	2	1	1	0	2	1	0.500	0.192	0.275	0.224	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	33	3	3	3	7	9	0.091

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Gleyber Torres	DH	93	349	90	0.258	8	38	0.362	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.247	0.354	0.341	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	2B	102	306	83	0.271	10	46	0.323	5	5	2	1	2	0	2	0.400	0.307	0.350	0.482	OK
Kevin McGonigle	3B	149	574	158	0.275	17	70	0.377	5	4	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.284	0.383	0.434	OK
Eduardo Valencia	C	36	113	40	0.354	6	18	0.381	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.403	0.420	0.611	OK
Ben Malgeri	RF	44	104	25	0.240	4	16	0.339	5	3	0	0	0	2	2	0.000	0.244	0.333	0.422	OK
Max Clark	CF	45	156	41	0.263	3	21	0.348	5	5	3	1	1	0	1	0.600	0.264	0.335	0.399	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	152	509	115	0.226	24	72	0.323	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.253	0.348	0.502	OK
Javier Báez	LF	53	176	43	0.244	3	19	0.276	5	5	3	1	0	0	0	0.600	0.234	0.264	0.372	OK
John Peck	SS	16	55	10	0.182	0	7	0.303	4	3	1	1	1	1	2	0.333	0.160	0.263	0.216	OK
TEAM TOTALS									44	40	10	4	4	4	14	0.250

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Riley Cornelio	Starter	16	29.2	4.62	1.678	10.5	34	4.0	5	2	2	2	7	85	4.0	7	2
Erik Tolman	Closer	12	10.7	4.21	1.589	10.1	12	1.1	2	1	1	0	2	23	1.1	2	1
Brad Lord	Setup Man	39	72.3	4.36	1.369	9.2	74	2.0	0	0	0	1	2	30	2.0	2	0
Luis Perales	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	6	11.0	11.45	2.545	10.6	13	1.2	2	1	1	1	2	31	0.2	2	1
Jack Sinclair	Reliever	7	6.5	2.77	1.231	6.9	5	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	0.0	1	0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Drew Anderson	Starter	48	93.6	3.94	1.410	10.5	109	5.0	3	3	3	3	9	96	5.0	9	3
Kenley Jansen	Closer	47	39.5	3.19	1.139	11.2	49	1.2	0	0	0	1	0	35	1.2	0	0
Tyler Holton	Setup Man	66	60.7	3.26	1.483	8.2	55	1.1	0	0	0	2	0	25	0.1	0	0
Drew Sommers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	41	30.6	3.82	1.405	17.6	60	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Jacob Waguespack	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	33	38.3	2.82	1.018	7.3	31	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

DET wins 4-3

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

ARI Recent Form

COL Recent Form

ARI Season Quality

COL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals

CHW Recent Form

KC Recent Form

CHW Season Quality

KC Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves

CIN Recent Form

ATL Recent Form

CIN Season Quality

ATL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox

CLE Recent Form

BOS Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

BOS Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners

HOU Recent Form

SEA Recent Form

HOU Season Quality

SEA Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics

LAA Recent Form

OAK Recent Form

LAA Season Quality

OAK Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs

MIA Recent Form

CHC Recent Form

MIA Season Quality

CHC Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies