| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ HOU | 5 - 3 | 5 - 3 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 5-3 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| BOS @ TB | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | TB | TB | TB wins 5-4 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| CHC @ CIN | 8 - 4 | 8 - 4 | CHC | CHC | CHC wins 8-4 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| DET @ CHW | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 | DET | DET | DET wins 5-4 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| KC @ PIT | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 | PIT | PIT | PIT wins 3-2 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| MIA @ SD | 4 - 6 | 4 - 6 | SD | SD | SD wins 6-4 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| MIL @ BAL | 7 - 1 | 7 - 1 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 7-1 | 63% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| MIN @ LAA | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | LAA | LAA | LAA wins 5-4 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| NYY @ ARI | 6 - 4 | 6 - 4 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 6-4 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| OAK @ CLE | 4 - 7 | 4 - 7 | CLE | CLE | CLE wins 7-4 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| PHI @ NYM | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | NYM | NYM | NYM wins 5-4 | 52% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| SEA @ COL | 9 - 6 | 9 - 6 | SEA | SEA | SEA wins 9-6 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| SF @ LAD | 4 - 8 | 4 - 8 | LAD | LAD | LAD wins 8-4 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| TOR @ TEX | 2 - 4 | 2 - 4 | TEX | TEX | TEX wins 4-2 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| WAS @ STL | 6 - 5 | 6 - 5 | WAS | WAS | WAS wins 6-5 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
Quality edge: -1.0585; margin adjustment: -0.4446; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Drake Baldwin | C | 131 | 516 | 146 | 0.283 | 24 | 77 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.307 | 0.358 | 0.473 | OK |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | DH | 101 | 387 | 101 | 0.261 | 20 | 55 | 0.352 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.275 | 0.358 | 0.520 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 154 | 595 | 151 | 0.254 | 39 | 87 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.298 | 0.356 | 0.515 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 148 | 566 | 166 | 0.293 | 26 | 85 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.272 | 0.289 | 0.446 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | 3B | 146 | 542 | 149 | 0.275 | 11 | 70 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.304 | 0.349 | 0.434 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 154 | 583 | 143 | 0.245 | 22 | 71 | 0.302 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.215 | 0.270 | 0.358 | OK |
| Mike Yastrzemski | LF | 126 | 337 | 77 | 0.228 | 11 | 36 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.312 | 0.467 | OK |
| Brewer Hicklen | RF | 9 | 27 | 9 | 0.333 | 0 | 3 | 0.438 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.324 | 0.425 | OK |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SS | 40 | 114 | 14 | 0.123 | 0 | 9 | 0.219 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.119 | 0.217 | 0.147 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeremy Peña | SS | 104 | 417 | 115 | 0.276 | 20 | 51 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.275 | 0.306 | 0.507 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | LF | 150 | 535 | 168 | 0.314 | 40 | 99 | 0.432 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.302 | 0.415 | 0.601 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 147 | 532 | 137 | 0.258 | 22 | 90 | 0.356 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.264 | 0.336 | 0.483 | OK |
| Jose Altuve | DH | 127 | 494 | 122 | 0.247 | 15 | 44 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.245 | 0.294 | 0.379 | OK |
| Yainer Diaz | C | 85 | 308 | 85 | 0.276 | 12 | 38 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.293 | 0.421 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 147 | 541 | 121 | 0.224 | 25 | 80 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.196 | 0.255 | 0.329 | OK |
| Cam Smith | RF | 141 | 485 | 102 | 0.210 | 20 | 53 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.165 | 0.219 | 0.337 | OK |
| Nick Allen | 2B | 57 | 136 | 38 | 0.279 | 3 | 14 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.283 | 0.336 | 0.410 | OK |
| Brice Matthews | CF | 71 | 204 | 39 | 0.191 | 7 | 21 | 0.242 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.171 | 0.229 | 0.314 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Martín Pérez | Starter | 29 | 135.1 | 3.13 | 1.281 | 6.7 | 100 | 5.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 94 | 5.2 | 5 | 2 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 57 | 55.9 | 2.74 | 1.145 | 9.8 | 61 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 68 | 56.6 | 3.34 | 1.060 | 12.1 | 76 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 55 | 65.3 | 2.48 | 1.149 | 12.4 | 90 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Hunter Brown | Starter | 18 | 94.2 | 3.54 | 1.327 | 10.5 | 110 | 5.2 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 105 | 5.2 | 5 | 4 |
| Josh Hader | Closer | 43 | 42.4 | 0.64 | 0.590 | 11.7 | 55 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Bryan Abreu | Setup Man | 63 | 53.8 | 4.35 | 1.487 | 13.2 | 79 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| AJ Blubaugh | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 61 | 86.5 | 3.95 | 1.329 | 9.6 | 92 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Bennett Sousa | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 31 | 21.5 | 6.28 | 2.000 | 11.3 | 27 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
ATL wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| TB | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
Quality edge: 0.3433; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Roman Anthony | LF | 49 | 191 | 45 | 0.236 | 5 | 15 | 0.333 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.296 | 0.385 | OK |
| Mickey Gasper | DH | 60 | 181 | 47 | 0.260 | 9 | 23 | 0.360 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.215 | 0.298 | 0.379 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | C | 26 | 95 | 18 | 0.189 | 4 | 10 | 0.252 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.209 | 0.266 | 0.360 | OK |
| Trevor Story | SS | 59 | 235 | 58 | 0.247 | 4 | 28 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.246 | 0.278 | 0.378 | OK |
| Nick Sogard | 1B | 57 | 208 | 52 | 0.250 | 5 | 18 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.314 | 0.375 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 141 | 476 | 117 | 0.246 | 13 | 61 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.285 | 0.355 | 0.402 | OK |
| Jarren Duran | CF | 142 | 529 | 108 | 0.204 | 20 | 63 | 0.262 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.203 | 0.250 | 0.367 | OK |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 2B | 50 | 147 | 37 | 0.252 | 2 | 16 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.190 | 0.258 | 0.268 | OK |
| Nate Eaton | RF | 17 | 43 | 6 | 0.140 | 1 | 5 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.149 | 0.258 | 0.259 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 35 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0.143 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 147 | 586 | 173 | 0.295 | 22 | 81 | 0.361 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.210 | 0.267 | 0.324 | OK |
| Ryan Vilade | 1B | 82 | 220 | 57 | 0.259 | 11 | 39 | 0.329 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.329 | 0.432 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 153 | 584 | 162 | 0.277 | 41 | 97 | 0.365 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.343 | 0.472 | OK |
| Jonny DeLuca | CF | 95 | 316 | 83 | 0.263 | 9 | 44 | 0.294 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.284 | 0.390 | OK |
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 142 | 553 | 171 | 0.309 | 0 | 36 | 0.336 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.327 | 0.351 | 0.380 | OK |
| Ben Williamson | 2B | 79 | 244 | 61 | 0.250 | 3 | 25 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.174 | 0.226 | 0.277 | OK |
| Nick Fortes | C | 95 | 279 | 75 | 0.269 | 5 | 34 | 0.314 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.162 | 0.217 | 0.299 | OK |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | RF | 61 | 199 | 52 | 0.261 | 13 | 30 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.308 | 0.378 | 0.623 | OK |
| Taylor Walls | SS | 113 | 351 | 76 | 0.217 | 2 | 35 | 0.306 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.129 | 0.235 | 0.194 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 36 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 0.167 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Patrick Sandoval | Starter | 12 | 55.8 | 5.16 | 1.846 | 10.0 | 62 | 4.2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 90 | 4.2 | 8 | 4 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 51 | 50.2 | 1.43 | 1.076 | 12.2 | 68 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Erik Miller | Setup Man | 17 | 16.2 | 3.33 | 1.420 | 15.6 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 53 | 49.7 | 1.81 | 0.905 | 10.7 | 59 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Greg Weissert | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 61 | 50.0 | 3.78 | 1.400 | 10.6 | 59 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Raymond Burgos | Reliever | 7 | 17.1 | 5.26 | 1.053 | 6.3 | 12 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Griffin Jax | Starter | 31 | 100.6 | 3.67 | 1.203 | 9.8 | 110 | 5.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 88 | 5.0 | 6 | 3 |
| Bryan Baker | Closer | 61 | 58.7 | 1.38 | 0.886 | 9.5 | 62 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kelly | Setup Man | 68 | 61.5 | 2.93 | 1.057 | 9.1 | 62 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Booser | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 39 | 31.1 | 2.60 | 0.965 | 12.2 | 42 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cole Sulser | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 46 | 47.9 | 4.32 | 1.294 | 9.8 | 52 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Casey Legumina | Middle Reliever | 44 | 50.2 | 3.94 | 1.394 | 8.1 | 45 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
TB wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
Quality edge: -1.6933; margin adjustment: -2.7093; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 153 | 594 | 166 | 0.279 | 44 | 105 | 0.371 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.261 | 0.321 | 0.530 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 135 | 515 | 139 | 0.270 | 24 | 84 | 0.368 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.263 | 0.346 | 0.406 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 151 | 567 | 136 | 0.240 | 19 | 75 | 0.350 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.254 | 0.369 | 0.471 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 151 | 595 | 156 | 0.262 | 26 | 88 | 0.352 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.219 | 0.297 | 0.419 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 144 | 512 | 113 | 0.221 | 24 | 66 | 0.328 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.148 | 0.272 | 0.336 | OK |
| Nico Hoerner | SS | 150 | 598 | 159 | 0.266 | 8 | 70 | 0.314 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 0.316 | 0.364 | OK |
| Michael Conforto | DH | 102 | 248 | 61 | 0.246 | 14 | 42 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.307 | 0.382 | 0.502 | OK |
| Pedro Ramirez | 2B | 70 | 214 | 56 | 0.262 | 6 | 30 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.324 | 0.441 | OK |
| Miguel Amaya | C | 67 | 201 | 48 | 0.239 | 6 | 26 | 0.330 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.297 | 0.393 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 37 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Dane Myers | CF | 97 | 272 | 70 | 0.257 | 6 | 25 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.238 | 0.299 | 0.345 | OK |
| Elly De La Cruz | SS | 133 | 519 | 150 | 0.289 | 28 | 74 | 0.372 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.258 | 0.359 | 0.501 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 1B | 152 | 583 | 157 | 0.269 | 31 | 107 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.269 | 0.325 | 0.433 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | DH | 122 | 392 | 98 | 0.250 | 15 | 54 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.246 | 0.320 | 0.390 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | RF | 122 | 434 | 95 | 0.219 | 22 | 56 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.309 | 0.371 | OK |
| Matt McLain | 2B | 122 | 414 | 76 | 0.184 | 15 | 39 | 0.272 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.148 | 0.220 | 0.265 | OK |
| Oswaldo Cabrera | LF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.048 | 0.061 | 0.079 | |
| Will Banfield | C | 6 | 12 | 2 | 0.167 | 0 | 0 | 0.167 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.115 | 0.128 | 0.231 | OK |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 3B | 71 | 216 | 32 | 0.148 | 5 | 9 | 0.203 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.135 | 0.182 | 0.211 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| David Peterson | Starter | 14 | 66.3 | 4.34 | 1.523 | 8.3 | 61 | 5.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 96 | 5.0 | 3 | 4 |
| Jacob Webb | Closer | 66 | 57.9 | 3.89 | 1.416 | 10.9 | 70 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Setup Man | 18 | 13.3 | 6.09 | 1.880 | 12.2 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 29 | 25.0 | 3.96 | 1.280 | 10.4 | 29 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb Thielbar | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 54 | 37.8 | 5.71 | 1.587 | 13.8 | 58 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Rhett Lowder | Starter | 27 | 120.6 | 5.97 | 1.567 | 7.3 | 98 | 4.1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 89 | 4.1 | 6 | 4 |
| Emilio Pagán | Closer | 42 | 39.5 | 3.65 | 1.063 | 9.8 | 43 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 |
| Luis Mey | Setup Man | 25 | 29.0 | 6.52 | 1.759 | 14.3 | 46 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brock Burke | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 75 | 63.0 | 2.71 | 1.444 | 10.4 | 73 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Tony Santillan | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 43 | 38.1 | 5.91 | 1.680 | 8.5 | 36 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
CHC wins 8-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| CHW | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
Quality edge: -0.396; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kevin McGonigle | DH | 148 | 570 | 158 | 0.277 | 17 | 70 | 0.378 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.292 | 0.396 | 0.445 | OK |
| Gleyber Torres | 2B | 91 | 342 | 90 | 0.263 | 8 | 38 | 0.365 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.243 | 0.332 | 0.319 | OK |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 3B | 100 | 297 | 80 | 0.269 | 10 | 45 | 0.323 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.280 | 0.335 | 0.470 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 132 | 486 | 140 | 0.288 | 21 | 75 | 0.374 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.309 | 0.383 | 0.518 | OK |
| Eduardo Valencia | C | 34 | 105 | 34 | 0.324 | 6 | 18 | 0.355 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.204 | 0.235 | 0.399 | OK |
| Max Clark | CF | 44 | 154 | 41 | 0.266 | 3 | 20 | 0.351 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.276 | 0.338 | 0.417 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 150 | 503 | 113 | 0.225 | 23 | 70 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.181 | 0.293 | 0.346 | OK |
| Brett Callahan | RF | 24 | 59 | 13 | 0.220 | 1 | 8 | 0.277 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.220 | 0.271 | 0.349 | OK |
| John Peck | SS | 14 | 48 | 10 | 0.208 | 0 | 7 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.199 | 0.297 | 0.257 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 36 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 133 | 456 | 122 | 0.268 | 8 | 46 | 0.362 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.259 | 0.312 | 0.366 | OK |
| Kyle Teel | C | 32 | 99 | 18 | 0.182 | 4 | 20 | 0.289 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.169 | 0.264 | 0.299 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 152 | 568 | 142 | 0.250 | 33 | 88 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.261 | 0.363 | 0.553 | OK |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1B | 120 | 428 | 87 | 0.203 | 32 | 69 | 0.344 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.192 | 0.326 | 0.443 | OK |
| Andrew Benintendi | DH | 135 | 407 | 99 | 0.243 | 14 | 71 | 0.303 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.235 | 0.290 | 0.375 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 146 | 543 | 111 | 0.204 | 31 | 87 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.175 | 0.243 | 0.330 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 148 | 548 | 147 | 0.268 | 14 | 56 | 0.344 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.246 | 0.318 | 0.371 | OK |
| Braden Montgomery | RF | 85 | 298 | 62 | 0.208 | 6 | 37 | 0.303 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.186 | 0.276 | 0.307 | OK |
| Brenton Doyle | CF | 26 | 69 | 17 | 0.246 | 2 | 7 | 0.246 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.292 | 0.353 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Troy Melton | Starter | 19 | 107.4 | 2.60 | 1.136 | 7.5 | 90 | 6.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 107 | 6.0 | 4 | 3 |
| Kenley Jansen | Closer | 47 | 39.5 | 3.19 | 1.139 | 11.2 | 49 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyler Holton | Setup Man | 65 | 60.6 | 3.27 | 1.436 | 8.2 | 55 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew Sommers | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 40 | 29.6 | 3.34 | 1.385 | 17.6 | 58 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Davis Martin | Starter | 27 | 137.5 | 4.06 | 1.331 | 7.5 | 115 | 5.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 95 | 5.0 | 7 | 3 |
| Grant Taylor | Closer | 41 | 51.9 | 2.60 | 1.118 | 13.2 | 76 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Newcomb | Setup Man | 53 | 73.6 | 3.18 | 1.277 | 9.5 | 78 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 1.1 | 0 | 2 |
| Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 60 | 52.8 | 2.90 | 1.307 | 9.4 | 55 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
DET wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
Quality edge: 0.7614; margin adjustment: 0.3198; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Maikel Garcia | 3B | 75 | 291 | 77 | 0.265 | 3 | 34 | 0.316 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.200 | 0.156 | 0.214 | 0.274 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 135 | 527 | 147 | 0.279 | 18 | 53 | 0.358 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.276 | 0.350 | 0.405 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | DH | 136 | 484 | 134 | 0.277 | 23 | 71 | 0.329 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.307 | 0.435 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | 1B | 144 | 551 | 125 | 0.227 | 19 | 72 | 0.271 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.204 | 0.235 | 0.328 | OK |
| Michael Massey | 2B | 122 | 397 | 110 | 0.277 | 13 | 48 | 0.310 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.278 | 0.428 | OK |
| Nick Loftin | RF | 113 | 359 | 86 | 0.240 | 7 | 43 | 0.321 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.331 | 0.390 | OK |
| John Rave | LF | 42 | 123 | 28 | 0.228 | 6 | 13 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.227 | 0.307 | 0.447 | OK |
| Luke Maile | C | 14 | 37 | 6 | 0.162 | 1 | 5 | 0.244 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.169 | 0.250 | 0.259 | OK |
| Tyler Tolbert | CF | 52 | 123 | 36 | 0.293 | 3 | 8 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.274 | 0.331 | 0.375 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 0.062 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Konnor Griffin | SS | 72 | 283 | 76 | 0.269 | 5 | 31 | 0.324 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.271 | 0.319 | 0.382 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 141 | 549 | 143 | 0.260 | 33 | 93 | 0.331 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.308 | 0.368 | 0.665 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | 152 | 566 | 149 | 0.263 | 17 | 71 | 0.367 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.249 | 0.324 | 0.407 | OK |
| Oneil Cruz | CF | 91 | 353 | 99 | 0.280 | 19 | 66 | 0.368 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.321 | 0.385 | 0.510 | OK |
| Nick Gonzales | 3B | 138 | 522 | 157 | 0.301 | 4 | 58 | 0.363 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.298 | 0.342 | 0.387 | OK |
| Ryan O'Hearn | DH | 98 | 373 | 101 | 0.271 | 18 | 72 | 0.333 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.320 | 0.425 | OK |
| Rafael Flores Jr. | C | 39 | 130 | 36 | 0.277 | 9 | 20 | 0.338 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.318 | 0.372 | 0.530 | OK |
| Spencer Horwitz | 1B | 108 | 367 | 91 | 0.248 | 10 | 46 | 0.347 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.276 | 0.367 | 0.368 | OK |
| Jake Mangum | RF | 116 | 408 | 116 | 0.284 | 5 | 32 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.282 | 0.319 | 0.394 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 43 | 40 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael Wacha | Starter | 30 | 186.1 | 3.39 | 1.112 | 7.2 | 149 | 6.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 115 | 6.1 | 5 | 2 |
| Steven Cruz | Closer | 55 | 53.0 | 4.75 | 1.377 | 10.7 | 63 | 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 |
| Nate Pearson | Setup Man | 23 | 23.3 | 2.70 | 1.159 | 9.3 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Alex Lange | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 56 | 53.7 | 6.54 | 1.676 | 9.6 | 57 | 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Lake Bachar | Starter | 12 | 22.5 | 2.80 | 1.244 | 10.0 | 25 | 5.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 98 | 5.0 | 8 | 0 |
| Mason Montgomery | Closer | 65 | 57.3 | 2.67 | 1.134 | 15.4 | 98 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Luke Weaver | Setup Man | 15 | 12.6 | 6.43 | 1.587 | 10.7 | 15 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 65 | 58.5 | 3.69 | 1.214 | 11.7 | 76 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Yohan Ramírez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 63 | 73.3 | 3.32 | 1.337 | 11.7 | 95 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0.1 | 2 | 0 |
PIT wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| SD | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 6 | 8 |
Quality edge: 0.5667; margin adjustment: 0.238; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Stowers | DH | 117 | 435 | 103 | 0.237 | 19 | 61 | 0.327 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.295 | 0.392 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 151 | 603 | 185 | 0.307 | 11 | 71 | 0.350 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.288 | 0.336 | 0.440 | OK |
| Griffin Conine | RF | 83 | 258 | 66 | 0.256 | 17 | 38 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.178 | 0.251 | 0.392 | OK |
| Heriberto Hernández | LF | 121 | 421 | 97 | 0.230 | 24 | 64 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.242 | 0.309 | 0.377 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 145 | 496 | 115 | 0.232 | 11 | 39 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.318 | 0.399 | 0.505 | OK |
| Javier Sanoja | 2B | 126 | 433 | 126 | 0.291 | 9 | 64 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.280 | 0.315 | 0.451 | OK |
| Graham Pauley | 3B | 49 | 133 | 28 | 0.211 | 4 | 25 | 0.259 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.138 | 0.193 | 0.325 | OK |
| Joe Mack | C | 97 | 292 | 67 | 0.229 | 13 | 47 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.211 | 0.255 | 0.337 | OK |
| Deyvison De Los Santos | 1B | 10 | 22 | 5 | 0.227 | 0 | 0 | 0.227 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.225 | 0.312 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2B | 151 | 603 | 172 | 0.285 | 24 | 79 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.287 | 0.354 | 0.495 | OK |
| Dustin Harris | RF | 18 | 64 | 23 | 0.359 | 0 | 13 | 0.382 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.316 | 0.364 | 0.425 | OK |
| Manny Machado | DH | 151 | 563 | 124 | 0.220 | 28 | 84 | 0.309 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.218 | 0.307 | 0.387 | OK |
| Ty France | 1B | 120 | 414 | 126 | 0.304 | 21 | 70 | 0.368 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.351 | 0.391 | 0.547 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 151 | 591 | 151 | 0.255 | 26 | 86 | 0.305 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.302 | 0.338 | 0.535 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 147 | 504 | 115 | 0.228 | 12 | 56 | 0.326 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.283 | 0.372 | 0.437 | OK |
| Jake Cronenworth | 3B | 101 | 354 | 79 | 0.223 | 5 | 31 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.322 | 0.333 | OK |
| Samad Taylor | LF | 41 | 134 | 44 | 0.328 | 2 | 17 | 0.405 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.353 | 0.427 | 0.487 | OK |
| Ethan Salas | C | 11 | 26 | 4 | 0.154 | 2 | 4 | 0.154 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.175 | 0.186 | 0.357 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Sandy Alcantara | Starter | 33 | 203.9 | 3.88 | 1.241 | 6.6 | 149 | 5.1 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 103 | 5.1 | 4 | 6 |
| Calvin Faucher | Closer | 66 | 57.4 | 3.92 | 1.498 | 10.8 | 69 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 62 | 55.9 | 3.54 | 1.252 | 12.6 | 78 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Ekness | Middle Reliever | 26 | 24.2 | 2.98 | 1.612 | 7.8 | 21 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Walker Buehler | Starter | 30 | 138.9 | 4.73 | 1.411 | 7.9 | 122 | 4.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 78 | 4.2 | 6 | 2 |
| Mason Miller | Closer | 62 | 62.5 | 1.30 | 0.896 | 17.7 | 123 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Setup Man | 73 | 73.1 | 3.20 | 1.218 | 12.7 | 103 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 63 | 59.9 | 2.10 | 1.119 | 11.4 | 76 | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 1.1 | 0 | 2 |
| Yuki Matsui | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 51 | 53.5 | 2.19 | 1.308 | 11.1 | 66 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
SD wins 6-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Quality edge: -1.3577; margin adjustment: -0.5702; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 118 | 496 | 143 | 0.288 | 24 | 70 | 0.346 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.250 | 0.301 | 0.437 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 140 | 542 | 148 | 0.273 | 19 | 94 | 0.371 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.254 | 0.378 | 0.428 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 139 | 541 | 146 | 0.270 | 17 | 86 | 0.339 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.258 | 0.321 | 0.429 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | 1B | 131 | 442 | 118 | 0.267 | 25 | 81 | 0.390 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.184 | 0.324 | 0.370 | OK |
| Joey Ortiz | 3B | 112 | 348 | 93 | 0.267 | 9 | 45 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.298 | 0.358 | 0.445 | OK |
| Christian Yelich | DH | 108 | 408 | 95 | 0.233 | 11 | 55 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.235 | 0.304 | 0.356 | OK |
| Cooper Pratt | SS | 64 | 204 | 56 | 0.275 | 3 | 30 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.279 | 0.342 | 0.351 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 130 | 426 | 111 | 0.261 | 10 | 58 | 0.348 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.258 | 0.342 | 0.438 | OK |
| Sal Frelick | RF | 101 | 319 | 76 | 0.238 | 4 | 37 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.177 | 0.237 | 0.243 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 37 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 0.297 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Dylan Beavers | LF | 93 | 297 | 71 | 0.239 | 7 | 38 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.273 | 0.326 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 152 | 569 | 152 | 0.267 | 38 | 105 | 0.362 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.320 | 0.516 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 149 | 594 | 133 | 0.224 | 22 | 57 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.243 | 0.308 | 0.396 | OK |
| Coby Mayo | 3B | 119 | 386 | 89 | 0.231 | 24 | 63 | 0.297 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.309 | 0.474 | OK |
| Samuel Basallo | DH | 107 | 354 | 80 | 0.226 | 18 | 54 | 0.290 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.264 | 0.385 | OK |
| Jeremiah Jackson | 2B | 82 | 254 | 56 | 0.220 | 8 | 36 | 0.245 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.227 | 0.384 | OK |
| Colton Cowser | CF | 120 | 319 | 71 | 0.223 | 12 | 36 | 0.307 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.243 | 0.321 | 0.349 | OK |
| Leody Taveras | RF | 127 | 415 | 90 | 0.217 | 8 | 54 | 0.285 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.206 | 0.268 | 0.312 | OK |
| Carlos Narváez | C | 26 | 67 | 7 | 0.104 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.102 | 0.160 | 0.146 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0.069 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob Misiorowski | Starter | 28 | 165.4 | 1.90 | 0.816 | 13.2 | 243 | 6.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 101 | 6.0 | 8 | 1 |
| Trevor Megill | Closer | 59 | 57.5 | 2.19 | 0.904 | 10.3 | 66 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Abner Uribe | Setup Man | 59 | 52.9 | 2.21 | 1.115 | 10.2 | 60 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 73 | 78.1 | 3.57 | 1.498 | 12.9 | 112 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Brandon Young | Starter | 26 | 141.0 | 3.77 | 1.418 | 7.5 | 118 | 5.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 105 | 5.2 | 7 | 3 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Closer | 54 | 42.2 | 4.05 | 1.540 | 8.3 | 39 | 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Rico Garcia | Setup Man | 72 | 55.2 | 3.10 | 1.105 | 10.8 | 66 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 64 | 38.2 | 2.83 | 1.152 | 10.1 | 43 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
MIL wins 7-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| LAA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
Quality edge: 0.0618; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Walker Jenkins | CF | 17 | 57 | 12 | 0.211 | 3 | 8 | 0.308 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.321 | 0.436 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | 3B | 146 | 557 | 139 | 0.250 | 23 | 80 | 0.297 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.264 | 0.300 | 0.384 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | 2B | 136 | 505 | 121 | 0.240 | 26 | 76 | 0.301 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.153 | 0.217 | 0.318 | OK |
| Josh Bell | DH | 148 | 547 | 139 | 0.254 | 20 | 89 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.292 | 0.382 | OK |
| Alan Roden | RF | 27 | 67 | 17 | 0.254 | 0 | 10 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.279 | 0.359 | 0.392 | OK |
| Royce Lewis | 1B | 119 | 439 | 100 | 0.228 | 14 | 54 | 0.291 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.213 | 0.262 | 0.339 | OK |
| Victor Caratini | C | 101 | 317 | 71 | 0.224 | 7 | 43 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.239 | 0.296 | 0.320 | OK |
| Emmanuel Rodriguez | LF | 8 | 29 | 5 | 0.172 | 1 | 4 | 0.200 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.178 | 0.211 | 0.364 | OK |
| Ben Ross | SS | 7 | 15 | 2 | 0.133 | 0 | 0 | 0.133 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.101 | 0.113 | 0.322 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | SS | 150 | 595 | 142 | 0.239 | 26 | 74 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.209 | 0.296 | 0.366 | OK |
| Mike Trout | DH | 136 | 493 | 119 | 0.241 | 21 | 53 | 0.380 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.234 | 0.373 | 0.394 | OK |
| Wade Meckler | LF | 85 | 273 | 80 | 0.293 | 3 | 27 | 0.365 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.288 | 0.352 | 0.364 | OK |
| Vaughn Grissom | 1B | 109 | 393 | 93 | 0.237 | 12 | 65 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.278 | 0.383 | OK |
| Moisés Ballesteros | C | 39 | 140 | 30 | 0.214 | 3 | 12 | 0.268 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.299 | 0.364 | OK |
| Denzer Guzman | 3B | 73 | 260 | 59 | 0.227 | 7 | 29 | 0.269 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.267 | 0.331 | OK |
| Josh Lowe | RF | 101 | 294 | 62 | 0.211 | 12 | 29 | 0.273 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.222 | 0.276 | 0.396 | OK |
| Jose Siri | CF | 83 | 211 | 50 | 0.237 | 9 | 30 | 0.286 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.252 | 0.296 | 0.437 | OK |
| Christian Moore | 2B | 31 | 110 | 19 | 0.173 | 1 | 11 | 0.227 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.140 | 0.189 | 0.206 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 0.212 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dean Kremer | Starter | 8 | 40.4 | 4.46 | 1.163 | 8.0 | 36 | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 85 | 4.2 | 3 | 2 |
| Yoendrys Gómez | Closer | 54 | 40.7 | 4.42 | 1.671 | 10.8 | 49 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeff Hoffman | Setup Man | 19 | 14.9 | 2.42 | 1.275 | 15.7 | 26 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| A.J. Minter | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 21 | 16.5 | 2.18 | 1.273 | 10.9 | 20 | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Ryan Johnson | Starter | 20 | 88.7 | 4.97 | 1.364 | 7.1 | 70 | 5.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 81 | 5.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Ben Joyce | Closer | 16 | 14.4 | 4.38 | 1.181 | 11.2 | 18 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Watson | Setup Man | 17 | 13.0 | 2.77 | 1.385 | 13.8 | 20 | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Tayler Saucedo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 25 | 15.2 | 3.55 | 1.316 | 14.2 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
LAA wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| ARI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
Quality edge: -0.9081; margin adjustment: -0.3814; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ben Rice | DH | 143 | 535 | 142 | 0.265 | 38 | 91 | 0.366 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 0.378 | 0.538 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 124 | 467 | 128 | 0.274 | 16 | 71 | 0.348 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.284 | 0.346 | 0.467 | OK |
| Heliot Ramos | RF | 30 | 87 | 14 | 0.161 | 3 | 9 | 0.305 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.237 | 0.306 | 0.411 | OK |
| Luis García Jr. | 1B | 37 | 140 | 39 | 0.279 | 7 | 15 | 0.311 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.248 | 0.273 | 0.447 | OK |
| George Lombard Jr. | SS | 35 | 125 | 29 | 0.232 | 4 | 15 | 0.290 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.287 | 0.381 | OK |
| Spencer Jones | CF | 76 | 235 | 58 | 0.247 | 10 | 38 | 0.315 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.281 | 0.398 | OK |
| Anthony Volpe | 2B | 62 | 199 | 49 | 0.246 | 2 | 24 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.256 | 0.329 | 0.360 | OK |
| Austin Wells | C | 115 | 324 | 60 | 0.185 | 13 | 31 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.310 | 0.454 | OK |
| José Caballero | 3B | 119 | 393 | 93 | 0.237 | 14 | 50 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.250 | 0.304 | 0.397 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 34 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 33 | 104 | 23 | 0.221 | 3 | 10 | 0.325 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.214 | 0.309 | 0.336 | OK |
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 133 | 534 | 132 | 0.247 | 22 | 74 | 0.312 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.213 | 0.270 | 0.354 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | C | 124 | 450 | 137 | 0.304 | 15 | 75 | 0.383 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.286 | 0.359 | 0.485 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 149 | 532 | 135 | 0.254 | 9 | 49 | 0.361 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.261 | 0.366 | 0.342 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 148 | 551 | 133 | 0.241 | 22 | 70 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.308 | 0.490 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 144 | 502 | 124 | 0.247 | 26 | 74 | 0.323 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.299 | 0.354 | 0.506 | OK |
| Jesús Sánchez | DH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.282 | 0.380 | |
| Pavin Smith | 1B | 33 | 93 | 16 | 0.172 | 3 | 10 | 0.243 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.162 | 0.226 | 0.324 | OK |
| Tim Tawa | CF | 88 | 284 | 67 | 0.236 | 10 | 38 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.213 | 0.269 | 0.359 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Will Warren | Starter | 30 | 142.4 | 4.04 | 1.412 | 9.3 | 147 | 5.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 107 | 5.1 | 4 | 2 |
| David Bednar | Closer | 61 | 61.9 | 2.76 | 1.115 | 10.8 | 74 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 78 | 61.4 | 2.35 | 1.450 | 13.9 | 95 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 60 | 73.9 | 1.83 | 1.204 | 8.3 | 68 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 63 | 45.6 | 5.33 | 1.316 | 4.9 | 25 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Corbin Burnes | Starter | 2 | 7.2 | 6.25 | 1.250 | 7.5 | 6 | 4.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 91 | 4.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Brandyn Garcia | Closer | 36 | 26.8 | 2.01 | 0.784 | 12.1 | 36 | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Juan Morillo | Setup Man | 48 | 40.4 | 2.90 | 1.114 | 12.3 | 55 | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 1.2 | 1 | 2 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 48 | 40.8 | 3.09 | 1.225 | 7.1 | 32 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin Ginkel | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 50 | 42.9 | 3.36 | 1.235 | 9.0 | 43 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
NYY wins 6-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| CLE | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | x | 7 | 11 |
Quality edge: 1.4565; margin adjustment: 0.6117; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Henry Bolte | LF | 108 | 385 | 105 | 0.273 | 11 | 35 | 0.355 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.256 | 0.320 | 0.385 | OK |
| Shea Langeliers | DH | 99 | 396 | 105 | 0.265 | 23 | 55 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.260 | 0.318 | 0.450 | OK |
| Lawrence Butler | RF | 140 | 444 | 102 | 0.230 | 17 | 59 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.302 | 0.410 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | 3B | 100 | 369 | 92 | 0.249 | 19 | 50 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.206 | 0.251 | 0.379 | OK |
| Donovan Walton | 2B | 49 | 121 | 28 | 0.231 | 5 | 17 | 0.376 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.322 | 0.457 | OK |
| Tommy White | 1B | 48 | 173 | 43 | 0.249 | 3 | 9 | 0.268 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.235 | 0.261 | 0.331 | OK |
| Alika Williams | SS | 72 | 205 | 54 | 0.263 | 4 | 15 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.294 | 0.433 | OK |
| Jonah Heim | C | 87 | 301 | 60 | 0.199 | 12 | 34 | 0.252 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.170 | 0.217 | 0.286 | OK |
| Denzel Clarke | CF | 26 | 67 | 11 | 0.164 | 0 | 6 | 0.233 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.105 | 0.179 | 0.155 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 33 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Steven Kwan | CF | 139 | 504 | 140 | 0.278 | 3 | 31 | 0.375 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.287 | 0.389 | 0.357 | OK |
| José Ramírez | 3B | 115 | 436 | 102 | 0.234 | 12 | 51 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.261 | 0.330 | 0.410 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | RF | 122 | 459 | 133 | 0.290 | 15 | 64 | 0.362 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.277 | 0.348 | 0.457 | OK |
| Jo Adell | DH | 40 | 151 | 37 | 0.245 | 6 | 29 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.258 | 0.294 | 0.424 | OK |
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 114 | 415 | 101 | 0.243 | 15 | 55 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.245 | 0.324 | 0.507 | OK |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 1B | 35 | 116 | 27 | 0.233 | 5 | 22 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.275 | 0.336 | 0.446 | OK |
| Angel Martínez | LF | 100 | 364 | 93 | 0.255 | 17 | 57 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.294 | 0.314 | 0.593 | OK |
| Patrick Bailey | C | 67 | 202 | 49 | 0.243 | 7 | 29 | 0.307 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.294 | 0.345 | OK |
| Angel Genao | SS | 32 | 114 | 24 | 0.211 | 2 | 6 | 0.268 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.210 | 0.265 | 0.287 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 0.324 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jack Perkins | Starter | 35 | 104.4 | 6.47 | 1.561 | 10.9 | 127 | 4.2 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 92 | 4.2 | 4 | 5 |
| Seth Johnson | Reliever | 8 | 11.3 | 4.78 | 1.327 | 12.7 | 16 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Chris Roycroft | Reliever | 7 | 10.5 | 1.71 | 1.524 | 6.0 | 7 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Hogan Harris | Reliever | 71 | 55.9 | 4.03 | 1.717 | 13.7 | 85 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Gavin Williams | Starter | 30 | 170.5 | 3.85 | 1.126 | 12.4 | 235 | 5.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 79 | 5.1 | 7 | 3 |
| Cade Smith | Closer | 65 | 65.8 | 2.19 | 1.049 | 13.7 | 100 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Setup Man | 63 | 47.8 | 3.01 | 1.339 | 10.0 | 53 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erik Sabrowski | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 55 | 35.3 | 3.31 | 1.360 | 17.8 | 70 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
CLE wins 7-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| NYM | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
Quality edge: -0.2613; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 147 | 556 | 130 | 0.234 | 44 | 94 | 0.348 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.190 | 0.305 | 0.427 | OK |
| Trea Turner | SS | 147 | 611 | 148 | 0.242 | 19 | 57 | 0.296 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.306 | 0.355 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | RF | 153 | 545 | 148 | 0.272 | 28 | 85 | 0.384 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.271 | 0.377 | 0.475 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 41 | 161 | 46 | 0.286 | 2 | 18 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.296 | 0.348 | 0.407 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 1B | 145 | 541 | 136 | 0.251 | 15 | 85 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.269 | 0.341 | 0.393 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 3B | 147 | 509 | 127 | 0.250 | 10 | 64 | 0.326 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.245 | 0.320 | 0.377 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | LF | 145 | 503 | 131 | 0.260 | 17 | 58 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.195 | 0.237 | 0.303 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 114 | 393 | 84 | 0.214 | 11 | 49 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.190 | 0.243 | 0.319 | OK |
| Justin Crawford | CF | 136 | 400 | 104 | 0.260 | 3 | 37 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.262 | 0.311 | 0.395 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Francisco Lindor | SS | 96 | 385 | 88 | 0.229 | 20 | 48 | 0.311 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.203 | 0.275 | 0.361 | OK |
| Juan Soto | LF | 102 | 370 | 102 | 0.276 | 26 | 65 | 0.389 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.258 | 0.351 | 0.475 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | 3B | 149 | 598 | 158 | 0.264 | 16 | 75 | 0.312 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.258 | 0.302 | 0.343 | OK |
| Mark Vientos | 1B | 80 | 256 | 56 | 0.219 | 13 | 39 | 0.263 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.221 | 0.280 | 0.380 | OK |
| Carson Benge | RF | 145 | 557 | 152 | 0.273 | 19 | 60 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.277 | 0.335 | 0.439 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 130 | 461 | 104 | 0.226 | 14 | 48 | 0.293 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.231 | 0.299 | 0.324 | OK |
| Francisco Alvarez | DH | 103 | 346 | 77 | 0.223 | 15 | 38 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.284 | 0.384 | OK |
| Nick Morabito | CF | 12 | 32 | 6 | 0.188 | 0 | 4 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.135 | 0.208 | 0.207 | OK |
| Luis Torrens | C | 80 | 241 | 59 | 0.245 | 9 | 40 | 0.303 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.288 | 0.423 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 33 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cristopher Sánchez | Starter | 31 | 191.1 | 2.97 | 1.240 | 10.1 | 215 | 6.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 121 | 6.1 | 6 | 4 |
| Jhoan Duran | Closer | 57 | 55.4 | 1.46 | 0.975 | 12.8 | 79 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jonathan Bowlan | Setup Man | 59 | 51.2 | 3.69 | 1.133 | 12.8 | 73 | 1.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 36 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jonah Tong | Starter | 5 | 20.3 | 3.55 | 1.232 | 8.9 | 20 | 5.1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 105 | 5.1 | 11 | 2 |
| Kodai Senga | Closer | 29 | 57.2 | 7.40 | 1.678 | 11.5 | 73 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Nathan Lavender | Setup Man | 18 | 14.0 | 2.57 | 1.143 | 14.8 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jonathan Pintaro | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 21 | 28.0 | 4.82 | 1.393 | 9.6 | 30 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
NYM wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| COL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
Quality edge: -0.921; margin adjustment: -0.3868; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| J.P. Crawford | SS | 109 | 388 | 86 | 0.222 | 13 | 38 | 0.338 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.308 | 0.395 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 147 | 548 | 154 | 0.281 | 26 | 76 | 0.377 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.312 | 0.373 | 0.565 | OK |
| Dominic Canzone | RF | 137 | 448 | 116 | 0.259 | 22 | 70 | 0.329 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.274 | 0.350 | 0.497 | OK |
| Cal Raleigh | C | 119 | 430 | 79 | 0.184 | 23 | 68 | 0.293 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.218 | 0.305 | 0.438 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 143 | 572 | 139 | 0.243 | 21 | 66 | 0.302 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.273 | 0.320 | 0.403 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 145 | 570 | 154 | 0.270 | 10 | 54 | 0.325 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.261 | 0.302 | 0.329 | OK |
| Cole Young | 2B | 152 | 555 | 137 | 0.247 | 17 | 65 | 0.309 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.237 | 0.275 | 0.357 | OK |
| Lazaro Montes | DH | 13 | 36 | 8 | 0.222 | 4 | 9 | 0.243 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.167 | 0.232 | 0.256 | 0.573 | OK |
| Brock Rodden | 3B | 22 | 58 | 12 | 0.207 | 0 | 4 | 0.309 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.212 | 0.313 | 0.300 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 55 | 51 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jake McCarthy | LF | 134 | 521 | 155 | 0.298 | 15 | 82 | 0.339 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.286 | 0.291 | 0.317 | 0.437 | OK |
| Connor Norby | 3B | 34 | 114 | 36 | 0.316 | 3 | 16 | 0.400 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.272 | 0.344 | 0.417 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | DH | 131 | 490 | 120 | 0.245 | 38 | 81 | 0.312 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.238 | 0.304 | 0.512 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 146 | 524 | 159 | 0.303 | 15 | 69 | 0.393 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.327 | 0.398 | 0.436 | OK |
| Cole Carrigg | CF | 83 | 306 | 83 | 0.271 | 10 | 48 | 0.336 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.282 | 0.332 | 0.488 | OK |
| Adael Amador | 2B | 20 | 64 | 18 | 0.281 | 4 | 13 | 0.352 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.192 | 0.256 | 0.327 | OK |
| Brett Sullivan | C | 70 | 208 | 49 | 0.236 | 7 | 32 | 0.274 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.272 | 0.365 | OK |
| Jordan Beck | RF | 56 | 152 | 30 | 0.197 | 1 | 11 | 0.259 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.194 | 0.264 | 0.277 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 135 | 440 | 96 | 0.218 | 11 | 42 | 0.265 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.269 | 0.362 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 57 | 51 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kade Anderson | Starter | 5 | 24.4 | 5.53 | 1.475 | 7.7 | 21 | 5.0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 104 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Closer | 59 | 53.5 | 4.04 | 1.234 | 15.0 | 89 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| José A. Ferrer | Setup Man | 69 | 52.1 | 4.66 | 1.708 | 8.6 | 50 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 68 | 53.3 | 4.56 | 1.707 | 10.8 | 64 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Gabe Speier | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 52 | 37.0 | 3.65 | 1.324 | 10.2 | 42 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Carlos Vargas | Reliever | 13 | 13.7 | 5.26 | 1.168 | 9.2 | 14 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Hoby Milner | Reliever | 4 | 3.1 | 8.71 | 1.935 | 8.7 | 3 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Starter | 27 | 139.4 | 5.62 | 1.392 | 5.6 | 86 | 4.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 91 | 4.2 | 1 | 2 |
| Jordan Romano | Closer | 25 | 22.5 | 3.60 | 1.244 | 9.6 | 24 | 1.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Brennan Bernardino | Setup Man | 71 | 51.6 | 2.97 | 1.318 | 8.4 | 48 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jimmy Herget | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 48 | 43.7 | 6.59 | 1.693 | 8.9 | 43 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 43 | 30.2 | 5.36 | 1.755 | 11.0 | 37 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 62 | 58.6 | 5.99 | 1.928 | 9.8 | 64 | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
SEA wins 9-6
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| LAD | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | x | 8 | 7 |
Quality edge: 1.6478; margin adjustment: 2.6365; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jonah Cox | 2B | 44 | 124 | 36 | 0.290 | 4 | 15 | 0.328 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.276 | 0.314 | 0.397 | OK |
| Jung Hoo Lee | RF | 138 | 527 | 145 | 0.275 | 9 | 54 | 0.316 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.234 | 0.263 | 0.375 | OK |
| Victor Bericoto | DH | 32 | 91 | 23 | 0.253 | 5 | 14 | 0.269 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.260 | 0.436 | OK |
| Andrew Knizner | C | 21 | 57 | 13 | 0.228 | 2 | 4 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.296 | 0.410 | OK |
| Brett Harris | 1B | 7 | 18 | 4 | 0.222 | 0 | 0 | 0.263 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.176 | 0.211 | 0.274 | OK |
| Scott Bandura | LF | 6 | 13 | 3 | 0.231 | 0 | 0 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.120 | 0.176 | 0.231 | OK |
| Shay Whitcomb | 3B | 21 | 73 | 15 | 0.205 | 2 | 6 | 0.205 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.194 | 0.199 | 0.330 | OK |
| Grant McCray | CF | 27 | 72 | 11 | 0.153 | 2 | 4 | 0.247 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.112 | 0.202 | 0.223 | OK |
| Christian Koss | SS | 58 | 178 | 42 | 0.236 | 4 | 12 | 0.277 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.258 | 0.306 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 36 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.278 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Mookie Betts | SS | 114 | 449 | 118 | 0.263 | 22 | 67 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.373 | 0.428 | 0.631 | OK |
| Tommy Edman | CF | 74 | 266 | 64 | 0.241 | 6 | 35 | 0.322 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.282 | 0.337 | OK |
| Teoscar Hernández | RF | 116 | 413 | 109 | 0.264 | 15 | 62 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.276 | 0.347 | 0.442 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 146 | 551 | 160 | 0.290 | 16 | 65 | 0.368 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.261 | 0.329 | 0.371 | OK |
| Miguel Rojas | 2B | 92 | 215 | 58 | 0.270 | 4 | 22 | 0.299 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.173 | 0.215 | 0.303 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 141 | 464 | 117 | 0.252 | 29 | 75 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.289 | 0.358 | 0.564 | OK |
| Josue De Paula | DH | 8 | 24 | 6 | 0.250 | 1 | 7 | 0.455 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.259 | 0.439 | 0.447 | OK |
| Enrique Hernández | LF | 32 | 78 | 17 | 0.218 | 3 | 10 | 0.274 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.229 | 0.286 | 0.378 | OK |
| Hunter Feduccia | C | 25 | 65 | 15 | 0.231 | 1 | 7 | 0.351 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.213 | 0.316 | 0.309 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 31 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Matt Wilkinson | Starter | 6 | 19.2 | 4.69 | 1.146 | 5.6 | 12 | 4.1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 91 | 4.1 | 5 | 4 |
| Dylan Smith | Closer | 38 | 31.8 | 3.96 | 1.667 | 11.9 | 42 | 1.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 1.1 | 1 | 3 |
| Trent Harris | Setup Man | 17 | 18.4 | 2.45 | 1.141 | 12.2 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Carson Seymour | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 21 | 24.4 | 5.53 | 1.844 | 7.7 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jack Dreyer | Starter | 63 | 50.0 | 3.78 | 1.340 | 12.2 | 68 | 5.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 86 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 |
| Tanner Scott | Closer | 66 | 55.3 | 3.09 | 1.103 | 12.5 | 77 | 1.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 1.2 | 0 | 2 |
| Brock Stewart | Setup Man | 24 | 21.1 | 2.56 | 1.090 | 9.0 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 69 | 44.5 | 3.44 | 1.371 | 14.0 | 69 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
LAD wins 8-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| TEX | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
Quality edge: 0.2463; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Brett Bateman | CF | 36 | 146 | 47 | 0.322 | 2 | 11 | 0.387 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.274 | 0.321 | 0.357 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 139 | 527 | 138 | 0.262 | 9 | 56 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.330 | 0.349 | OK |
| Nathan Lukes | RF | 115 | 387 | 105 | 0.271 | 10 | 37 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.251 | 0.283 | 0.338 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 148 | 544 | 128 | 0.235 | 33 | 88 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.232 | 0.299 | 0.455 | OK |
| Sean Keys | DH | 17 | 46 | 9 | 0.196 | 2 | 7 | 0.213 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.227 | 0.359 | OK |
| Josh Smith | LF | 26 | 57 | 13 | 0.228 | 5 | 7 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.202 | 0.291 | 0.328 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 135 | 450 | 109 | 0.242 | 9 | 56 | 0.289 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.216 | 0.241 | 0.323 | OK |
| Brandon Valenzuela | C | 75 | 230 | 50 | 0.217 | 8 | 21 | 0.301 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.191 | 0.280 | 0.307 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 150 | 566 | 150 | 0.265 | 9 | 47 | 0.292 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.162 | 0.197 | 0.236 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Wyatt Langford | LF | 103 | 386 | 94 | 0.244 | 17 | 42 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.367 | 0.414 | OK |
| Corey Seager | DH | 94 | 354 | 83 | 0.234 | 18 | 47 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.321 | 0.428 | OK |
| Josh Jung | 3B | 99 | 383 | 114 | 0.298 | 11 | 39 | 0.363 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.286 | 0.335 | 0.486 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | SS | 144 | 515 | 137 | 0.266 | 17 | 83 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.239 | 0.286 | 0.360 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 149 | 570 | 148 | 0.260 | 14 | 61 | 0.325 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.232 | 0.291 | 0.354 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 147 | 530 | 123 | 0.232 | 26 | 86 | 0.305 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.298 | 0.365 | OK |
| Nicky Lopez | 2B | 83 | 220 | 61 | 0.277 | 1 | 23 | 0.328 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.281 | 0.281 | OK |
| Danny Jansen | C | 58 | 175 | 36 | 0.206 | 6 | 23 | 0.298 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.267 | 0.329 | 0.424 | OK |
| Evan Carter | CF | 132 | 376 | 71 | 0.189 | 9 | 38 | 0.281 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.162 | 0.240 | 0.254 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 31 | 28 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0.143 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Spencer Miles | Starter | 47 | 84.9 | 2.86 | 1.178 | 9.2 | 87 | 6.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 98 | 6.0 | 3 | 3 |
| Louis Varland | Closer | 69 | 70.4 | 1.41 | 1.080 | 12.1 | 95 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Rogers | Setup Man | 71 | 64.0 | 1.83 | 1.234 | 5.5 | 39 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob deGrom | Starter | 29 | 152.0 | 3.85 | 1.086 | 11.5 | 194 | 5.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 100 | 5.2 | 7 | 2 |
| Jacob Latz | Closer | 55 | 64.9 | 1.80 | 0.801 | 10.8 | 78 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jakob Junis | Setup Man | 49 | 47.7 | 3.21 | 1.258 | 7.0 | 37 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 21 | 14.5 | 4.97 | 1.862 | 13.0 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
TEX wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 |
| STL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.3526; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | DH | 128 | 487 | 130 | 0.267 | 30 | 76 | 0.392 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.276 | 0.392 | 0.497 | OK |
| Andrés Chaparro | 1B | 71 | 181 | 47 | 0.260 | 11 | 37 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.293 | 0.359 | 0.559 | OK |
| Brady House | 3B | 86 | 301 | 72 | 0.239 | 10 | 45 | 0.299 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.167 | 0.230 | 0.302 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | 2B | 145 | 555 | 145 | 0.261 | 30 | 97 | 0.337 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.328 | 0.483 | OK |
| Dylan Crews | RF | 100 | 379 | 85 | 0.224 | 12 | 43 | 0.289 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.236 | 0.277 | 0.407 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | LF | 153 | 578 | 144 | 0.249 | 22 | 88 | 0.302 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.249 | 0.292 | 0.499 | OK |
| Harry Ford | C | 31 | 92 | 17 | 0.185 | 3 | 10 | 0.299 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.110 | 0.227 | 0.215 | OK |
| Jacob Young | CF | 122 | 404 | 100 | 0.248 | 10 | 45 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.155 | 0.208 | 0.264 | OK |
| Nasim Nuñez | SS | 130 | 417 | 88 | 0.211 | 1 | 36 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.307 | 0.250 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| JJ Wetherholt | 2B | 129 | 503 | 122 | 0.243 | 17 | 48 | 0.342 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.303 | 0.347 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | DH | 150 | 570 | 138 | 0.242 | 15 | 64 | 0.351 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.216 | 0.283 | 0.309 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 150 | 570 | 161 | 0.282 | 23 | 108 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.196 | 0.269 | 0.356 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 148 | 571 | 157 | 0.275 | 26 | 95 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.214 | 0.273 | 0.349 | OK |
| Leonardo Bernal | C | 17 | 71 | 22 | 0.310 | 3 | 15 | 0.347 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.299 | 0.398 | OK |
| Thomas Saggese | SS | 45 | 142 | 36 | 0.254 | 4 | 13 | 0.310 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.244 | 0.300 | 0.361 | OK |
| Bryan Torres | LF | 59 | 148 | 36 | 0.243 | 3 | 17 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.227 | 0.300 | 0.312 | OK |
| José Fermín | 3B | 107 | 306 | 77 | 0.252 | 6 | 41 | 0.314 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.262 | 0.332 | 0.369 | OK |
| Nathan Church | CF | 122 | 409 | 105 | 0.257 | 10 | 49 | 0.301 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.321 | 0.385 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jake Irvin | Starter | 20 | 94.7 | 5.61 | 1.436 | 9.1 | 96 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 80 | 5.0 | 6 | 2 |
| Erik Tolman | Closer | 11 | 10.5 | 3.43 | 1.524 | 10.3 | 12 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Lord | Setup Man | 39 | 72.3 | 4.36 | 1.369 | 9.2 | 74 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luis Perales | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 5 | 9.0 | 9.00 | 2.333 | 11.0 | 11 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jared Simpson | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 3 | 4.1 | 4.39 | 1.220 | 8.8 | 4 | 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.2 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Quinn Mathews | Starter | 7 | 36.4 | 3.71 | 1.429 | 8.9 | 36 | 5.2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 107 | 5.2 | 9 | 4 |
| Riley O'Brien | Closer | 65 | 60.2 | 4.34 | 1.362 | 9.6 | 64 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| George Soriano | Setup Man | 69 | 56.6 | 4.93 | 1.608 | 10.2 | 64 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 67 | 51.8 | 4.69 | 1.544 | 11.1 | 64 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Justin Bruihl | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 69 | 62.4 | 4.33 | 1.587 | 7.6 | 53 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
WAS wins 6-5