| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ HOU | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 4-3 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| BOS @ TB | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | TB | TB | TB wins 5-4 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| CHC @ CIN | 6 - 4 | 6 - 4 | CHC | CHC | CHC wins 6-4 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| DET @ CHW | 6 - 4 | 6 - 4 | DET | DET | DET wins 6-4 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| KC @ PIT | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | PIT | PIT | PIT wins 4-3 | 59% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| MIA @ SD | 4 - 6 | 4 - 6 | SD | SD | SD wins 6-4 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| MIL @ BAL | 7 - 4 | 7 - 4 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 7-4 | 67% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| MIN @ LAA | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | LAA | LAA | LAA wins 5-4 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| NYY @ ARI | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 5-4 | 50% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| OAK @ CLE | 3 - 7 | 3 - 7 | CLE | CLE | CLE wins 7-3 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| PHI @ NYM | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 | PHI | PHI | PHI wins 5-4 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| SEA @ COL | 9 - 5 | 9 - 5 | SEA | SEA | SEA wins 9-5 | 76% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| SF @ LAD | 2 - 4 | 2 - 4 | LAD | LAD | LAD wins 4-2 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| TOR @ TEX | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | TEX | TEX | TEX wins 5-4 | 50% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| WAS @ STL | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | STL | STL | STL wins 4-3 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| HOU | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
Quality edge: -0.7843; margin adjustment: -0.3294; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Drake Baldwin | DH | 129 | 507 | 141 | 0.278 | 24 | 77 | 0.353 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.282 | 0.343 | 0.463 | OK |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | 99 | 379 | 98 | 0.259 | 18 | 49 | 0.349 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.274 | 0.342 | 0.482 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 152 | 586 | 146 | 0.249 | 38 | 84 | 0.322 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.330 | 0.483 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 146 | 557 | 163 | 0.293 | 25 | 83 | 0.317 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.280 | 0.298 | 0.428 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | SS | 144 | 533 | 146 | 0.274 | 11 | 70 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.302 | 0.351 | 0.427 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 152 | 576 | 143 | 0.248 | 22 | 71 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.225 | 0.280 | 0.383 | OK |
| Mike Yastrzemski | LF | 124 | 329 | 75 | 0.228 | 10 | 35 | 0.308 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.165 | 0.249 | 0.301 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 150 | 530 | 118 | 0.223 | 17 | 69 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.206 | 0.273 | 0.335 | OK |
| Sean Murphy | C | 26 | 89 | 17 | 0.191 | 3 | 10 | 0.250 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.170 | 0.227 | 0.291 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeremy Peña | SS | 102 | 409 | 114 | 0.279 | 20 | 51 | 0.330 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.290 | 0.323 | 0.551 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 148 | 529 | 166 | 0.314 | 40 | 99 | 0.431 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.286 | 0.396 | 0.633 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 145 | 525 | 133 | 0.253 | 21 | 86 | 0.353 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.311 | 0.445 | OK |
| Jose Altuve | 2B | 125 | 486 | 118 | 0.243 | 15 | 44 | 0.301 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.271 | 0.334 | OK |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | 38 | 144 | 26 | 0.181 | 5 | 14 | 0.234 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.191 | 0.237 | 0.342 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 145 | 533 | 119 | 0.223 | 25 | 80 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.175 | 0.240 | 0.324 | OK |
| Taylor Trammell | RF | 85 | 238 | 49 | 0.206 | 8 | 22 | 0.289 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.288 | 0.371 | OK |
| LaMonte Wade Jr. | LF | 47 | 118 | 25 | 0.212 | 4 | 19 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.301 | 0.433 | OK |
| Christian Vázquez | C | 81 | 236 | 49 | 0.208 | 7 | 25 | 0.260 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.177 | 0.232 | 0.270 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tyler Mahle | Starter | 7 | 42.4 | 1.27 | 0.943 | 8.1 | 38 | 6.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 109 | 6.0 | 4 | 3 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 55 | 53.9 | 2.84 | 1.187 | 9.5 | 57 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 67 | 55.6 | 3.24 | 1.025 | 12.1 | 75 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 54 | 63.3 | 2.42 | 1.137 | 12.4 | 87 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Peter Lambert | Starter | 26 | 141.7 | 3.81 | 1.256 | 9.0 | 141 | 5.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 96 | 5.1 | 2 | 2 |
| Josh Hader | Closer | 43 | 42.4 | 0.64 | 0.590 | 11.7 | 55 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Abreu | Setup Man | 62 | 53.6 | 4.20 | 1.455 | 13.1 | 78 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| AJ Blubaugh | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 59 | 85.4 | 3.48 | 1.288 | 9.6 | 91 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 2 |
ATL wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
Quality edge: 0.3301; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Roman Anthony | LF | 47 | 182 | 42 | 0.231 | 4 | 11 | 0.333 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.291 | 0.319 | OK |
| Nick Sogard | 1B | 55 | 199 | 51 | 0.256 | 5 | 18 | 0.352 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.250 | 0.336 | 0.408 | OK |
| Jahmai Jones | DH | 26 | 46 | 17 | 0.370 | 3 | 8 | 0.431 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.148 | 0.213 | 0.270 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 146 | 554 | 142 | 0.256 | 23 | 73 | 0.336 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.292 | 0.377 | OK |
| Trevor Story | SS | 57 | 228 | 56 | 0.246 | 4 | 28 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.245 | 0.272 | 0.392 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 139 | 469 | 113 | 0.241 | 13 | 61 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.317 | 0.375 | OK |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 2B | 48 | 141 | 37 | 0.262 | 2 | 16 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.153 | 0.238 | 0.225 | OK |
| Nate Eaton | CF | 16 | 40 | 5 | 0.125 | 1 | 5 | 0.255 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.134 | 0.235 | 0.251 | OK |
| Connor Wong | C | 66 | 198 | 47 | 0.237 | 4 | 24 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.202 | 0.260 | 0.303 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 38 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 146 | 583 | 173 | 0.297 | 22 | 81 | 0.361 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.219 | 0.264 | 0.330 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 146 | 551 | 154 | 0.279 | 21 | 90 | 0.362 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.280 | 0.351 | 0.491 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 151 | 577 | 160 | 0.277 | 41 | 96 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.247 | 0.330 | 0.471 | OK |
| Ryan Vilade | 2B | 81 | 216 | 56 | 0.259 | 11 | 39 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.251 | 0.327 | 0.432 | OK |
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 140 | 544 | 169 | 0.311 | 0 | 36 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.334 | 0.358 | 0.388 | OK |
| Jonny DeLuca | CF | 93 | 311 | 83 | 0.267 | 9 | 44 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.273 | 0.302 | 0.410 | OK |
| Nick Fortes | C | 94 | 278 | 74 | 0.266 | 5 | 34 | 0.310 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.287 | 0.406 | OK |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | RF | 61 | 199 | 52 | 0.261 | 13 | 30 | 0.324 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.333 | 0.400 | 0.648 | OK |
| Taylor Walls | SS | 111 | 349 | 76 | 0.218 | 2 | 35 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.205 | 0.297 | 0.286 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 0.265 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Ranger Suarez | Starter | 26 | 134.4 | 3.42 | 1.220 | 8.7 | 130 | 5.2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 109 | 5.2 | 10 | 2 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 51 | 50.2 | 1.43 | 1.076 | 12.2 | 68 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Erik Miller | Setup Man | 16 | 15.2 | 2.96 | 1.316 | 15.4 | 26 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 52 | 49.5 | 1.82 | 0.848 | 10.5 | 58 | 1.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Ian Seymour | Starter | 43 | 115.8 | 4.12 | 1.166 | 11.7 | 150 | 5.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 72 | 5.0 | 6 | 1 |
| Bryan Baker | Closer | 60 | 57.7 | 1.40 | 0.867 | 9.7 | 62 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kelly | Setup Man | 67 | 60.5 | 2.98 | 1.058 | 9.1 | 61 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cam Booser | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 38 | 31.0 | 2.61 | 0.968 | 12.2 | 42 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Sulser | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 45 | 46.9 | 4.41 | 1.301 | 9.6 | 50 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
TB wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| CIN | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
Quality edge: -1.6772; margin adjustment: -2.6835; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 151 | 584 | 166 | 0.284 | 44 | 105 | 0.377 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.320 | 0.379 | 0.765 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 133 | 507 | 136 | 0.268 | 24 | 81 | 0.367 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.239 | 0.321 | 0.381 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 149 | 561 | 134 | 0.239 | 18 | 74 | 0.347 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.247 | 0.355 | 0.414 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 149 | 586 | 156 | 0.266 | 26 | 88 | 0.356 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.308 | 0.381 | 0.564 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 143 | 508 | 112 | 0.220 | 23 | 65 | 0.328 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.202 | 0.327 | 0.355 | OK |
| Nico Hoerner | 2B | 148 | 590 | 156 | 0.264 | 8 | 69 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.282 | 0.307 | OK |
| Michael Conforto | DH | 101 | 244 | 58 | 0.238 | 14 | 42 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.248 | 0.334 | 0.445 | OK |
| Carson Kelly | C | 109 | 362 | 95 | 0.262 | 10 | 56 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 0.330 | 0.375 | OK |
| Dansby Swanson | SS | 115 | 395 | 85 | 0.215 | 16 | 59 | 0.301 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.218 | 0.318 | 0.408 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 36 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carlos Jorge | CF | 8 | 20 | 2 | 0.100 | 0 | 0 | 0.143 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.088 | 0.137 | 0.142 | OK |
| Elly De La Cruz | SS | 131 | 515 | 148 | 0.287 | 28 | 74 | 0.366 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.334 | 0.548 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 1B | 150 | 576 | 156 | 0.271 | 31 | 106 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.286 | 0.341 | 0.485 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | DH | 120 | 385 | 96 | 0.249 | 15 | 53 | 0.330 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.239 | 0.316 | 0.392 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 120 | 427 | 93 | 0.218 | 22 | 56 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 0.297 | 0.333 | OK |
| Eugenio Suárez | 3B | 116 | 403 | 86 | 0.213 | 24 | 68 | 0.309 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.303 | 0.447 | OK |
| Héctor Rodríguez | RF | 34 | 119 | 27 | 0.227 | 5 | 12 | 0.276 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.251 | 0.366 | OK |
| Jose Trevino | C | 45 | 144 | 31 | 0.215 | 5 | 17 | 0.219 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.188 | 0.196 | 0.285 | OK |
| Matt McLain | 2B | 120 | 409 | 76 | 0.186 | 15 | 39 | 0.275 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.161 | 0.232 | 0.312 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 29 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0.103 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Clay Holmes | Starter | 7 | 37.6 | 3.59 | 1.250 | 6.2 | 26 | 5.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 84 | 5.2 | 5 | 3 |
| Jacob Webb | Closer | 65 | 56.9 | 3.95 | 1.424 | 10.8 | 68 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Setup Man | 17 | 12.3 | 6.59 | 1.951 | 11.7 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 28 | 23.0 | 4.30 | 1.391 | 10.2 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Chase Burns | Starter | 28 | 149.0 | 2.84 | 1.168 | 10.9 | 181 | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 98 | 5.0 | 6 | 3 |
| Emilio Pagán | Closer | 41 | 38.5 | 3.74 | 1.065 | 9.8 | 42 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Luis Mey | Setup Man | 25 | 29.0 | 6.52 | 1.759 | 14.3 | 46 | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Brock Burke | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 74 | 62.0 | 2.76 | 1.468 | 10.5 | 72 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
CHC wins 6-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 |
| CHW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
Quality edge: -0.4508; margin adjustment: -0.1893; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kevin McGonigle | SS | 146 | 561 | 155 | 0.276 | 17 | 65 | 0.378 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.287 | 0.379 | 0.439 | OK |
| Gleyber Torres | 2B | 90 | 338 | 89 | 0.263 | 8 | 38 | 0.365 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.258 | 0.343 | 0.346 | OK |
| Colt Keith | DH | 133 | 376 | 96 | 0.255 | 10 | 35 | 0.313 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.263 | 0.317 | 0.436 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 130 | 479 | 137 | 0.286 | 20 | 73 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.288 | 0.359 | 0.480 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 148 | 497 | 111 | 0.223 | 23 | 70 | 0.319 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.255 | 0.355 | 0.492 | OK |
| Zach McKinstry | RF | 117 | 361 | 74 | 0.205 | 4 | 26 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.164 | 0.251 | 0.256 | OK |
| Max Clark | CF | 42 | 147 | 39 | 0.265 | 3 | 20 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.324 | 0.408 | OK |
| Eduardo Valencia | C | 32 | 100 | 32 | 0.320 | 6 | 18 | 0.346 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.293 | 0.319 | 0.500 | OK |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 3B | 98 | 287 | 74 | 0.258 | 9 | 42 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.253 | 0.321 | 0.432 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 35 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 150 | 561 | 139 | 0.248 | 31 | 84 | 0.355 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.324 | 0.405 | OK |
| Tommy Pham | DH | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0.143 | 1 | 3 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.089 | 0.137 | 0.246 | OK |
| Randal Grichuk | LF | 93 | 210 | 63 | 0.300 | 13 | 37 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.288 | 0.319 | 0.558 | OK |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1B | 116 | 415 | 84 | 0.202 | 31 | 65 | 0.344 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.181 | 0.319 | 0.406 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 146 | 543 | 147 | 0.271 | 14 | 56 | 0.344 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 0.335 | 0.398 | OK |
| Kyle Teel | C | 28 | 85 | 17 | 0.200 | 4 | 18 | 0.299 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.199 | 0.300 | 0.368 | OK |
| Brenton Doyle | CF | 26 | 69 | 17 | 0.246 | 2 | 7 | 0.246 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.243 | 0.283 | 0.344 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 144 | 536 | 109 | 0.203 | 31 | 84 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.123 | 0.214 | 0.261 | OK |
| Tristan Peters | RF | 140 | 418 | 114 | 0.273 | 12 | 54 | 0.341 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.306 | 0.406 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Andrew Sears | Starter | 4 | 15.5 | 5.81 | 1.484 | 7.5 | 13 | 4.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 78 | 4.2 | 6 | 2 |
| Kenley Jansen | Closer | 46 | 38.5 | 3.27 | 1.169 | 11.2 | 48 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Holton | Setup Man | 65 | 60.6 | 3.27 | 1.436 | 8.2 | 55 | 1.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Drew Sommers | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 39 | 27.6 | 3.59 | 1.486 | 17.3 | 53 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Waguespack | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 32 | 36.3 | 2.98 | 1.047 | 6.9 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| David Sandlin | Starter | 6 | 29.4 | 5.82 | 1.224 | 8.9 | 29 | 5.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 103 | 5.1 | 6 | 3 |
| Grant Taylor | Closer | 41 | 51.9 | 2.60 | 1.118 | 13.2 | 76 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Sean Newcomb | Setup Man | 53 | 73.6 | 3.18 | 1.277 | 9.5 | 78 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 60 | 52.8 | 2.90 | 1.307 | 9.4 | 55 | 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 1.0 | 2 | 3 |
DET wins 6-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
Quality edge: 0.661; margin adjustment: 0.2776; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carter Jensen | C | 140 | 497 | 117 | 0.235 | 24 | 75 | 0.323 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.268 | 0.340 | 0.485 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 133 | 518 | 143 | 0.276 | 18 | 53 | 0.357 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.237 | 0.321 | 0.372 | OK |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | 104 | 383 | 91 | 0.238 | 12 | 49 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.220 | 0.301 | 0.393 | OK |
| Maikel Garcia | 3B | 73 | 286 | 76 | 0.266 | 3 | 32 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.232 | 0.282 | 0.351 | OK |
| Michael Massey | 2B | 120 | 390 | 109 | 0.279 | 12 | 46 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.284 | 0.393 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | DH | 142 | 546 | 125 | 0.229 | 19 | 72 | 0.273 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.240 | 0.331 | OK |
| John Rave | LF | 40 | 117 | 26 | 0.222 | 6 | 13 | 0.300 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.297 | 0.449 | OK |
| Nick Loftin | RF | 111 | 351 | 81 | 0.231 | 7 | 42 | 0.313 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.285 | 0.336 | OK |
| Kyle Isbel | CF | 89 | 272 | 59 | 0.217 | 6 | 24 | 0.264 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.199 | 0.235 | 0.273 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Konnor Griffin | SS | 70 | 275 | 72 | 0.262 | 5 | 29 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.264 | 0.306 | 0.385 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 139 | 540 | 140 | 0.259 | 31 | 89 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.301 | 0.374 | 0.551 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | 150 | 557 | 147 | 0.264 | 17 | 71 | 0.369 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.329 | 0.392 | OK |
| Oneil Cruz | CF | 89 | 345 | 94 | 0.272 | 19 | 66 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.272 | 0.343 | 0.465 | OK |
| Nick Gonzales | 3B | 136 | 515 | 155 | 0.301 | 4 | 58 | 0.363 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.292 | 0.340 | 0.371 | OK |
| Ryan O'Hearn | DH | 96 | 366 | 101 | 0.276 | 18 | 71 | 0.336 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.271 | 0.325 | 0.457 | OK |
| Ronny Simon | RF | 13 | 40 | 13 | 0.325 | 0 | 2 | 0.372 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.323 | 0.370 | 0.391 | OK |
| Spencer Horwitz | 1B | 107 | 364 | 89 | 0.245 | 10 | 44 | 0.344 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.135 | 0.236 | 0.207 | OK |
| Henry Davis | C | 82 | 244 | 40 | 0.164 | 10 | 37 | 0.254 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.160 | 0.245 | 0.380 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 0.219 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Randy Dobnak | Starter | 13 | 67.7 | 2.79 | 1.300 | 6.2 | 47 | 6.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 94 | 6.0 | 7 | 3 |
| Steven Cruz | Closer | 54 | 52.0 | 4.50 | 1.365 | 10.7 | 62 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Nate Pearson | Setup Man | 22 | 22.3 | 1.61 | 1.031 | 8.9 | 22 | 1.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Paul Skenes | Starter | 30 | 159.2 | 3.84 | 1.149 | 10.5 | 185 | 5.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 96 | 5.1 | 5 | 2 |
| Mason Montgomery | Closer | 64 | 56.3 | 2.72 | 1.137 | 15.5 | 97 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Luke Weaver | Setup Man | 14 | 11.6 | 6.98 | 1.724 | 10.9 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 28 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 64 | 57.5 | 3.76 | 1.217 | 11.6 | 74 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
PIT wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | x | 6 | 5 |
Quality edge: 0.3852; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Stowers | 1B | 115 | 426 | 102 | 0.239 | 19 | 61 | 0.329 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.286 | 0.372 | OK |
| Heriberto Hernández | LF | 119 | 413 | 96 | 0.232 | 24 | 64 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.251 | 0.309 | 0.397 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 149 | 595 | 182 | 0.306 | 10 | 69 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.291 | 0.332 | 0.393 | OK |
| Griffin Conine | RF | 81 | 253 | 65 | 0.257 | 16 | 37 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.305 | 0.422 | OK |
| Javier Sanoja | 3B | 124 | 425 | 124 | 0.292 | 9 | 63 | 0.326 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 0.301 | 0.443 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 143 | 489 | 111 | 0.227 | 11 | 39 | 0.343 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.292 | 0.378 | 0.557 | OK |
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 138 | 511 | 144 | 0.282 | 6 | 52 | 0.361 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.324 | 0.309 | OK |
| Joe Mack | C | 95 | 287 | 67 | 0.233 | 13 | 46 | 0.282 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.258 | 0.349 | OK |
| Agustín Ramírez | DH | 60 | 195 | 43 | 0.221 | 4 | 21 | 0.305 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.198 | 0.270 | 0.357 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0.069 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2B | 149 | 595 | 170 | 0.286 | 23 | 77 | 0.353 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.295 | 0.358 | 0.494 | OK |
| Dustin Harris | RF | 16 | 54 | 20 | 0.370 | 0 | 11 | 0.397 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.311 | 0.366 | 0.421 | OK |
| Manny Machado | DH | 149 | 554 | 122 | 0.220 | 28 | 84 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.312 | 0.423 | OK |
| Ty France | 1B | 118 | 405 | 121 | 0.299 | 20 | 66 | 0.364 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.336 | 0.379 | 0.512 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 149 | 583 | 149 | 0.256 | 25 | 85 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.315 | 0.347 | 0.497 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 146 | 500 | 113 | 0.226 | 12 | 56 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.256 | 0.348 | 0.398 | OK |
| Jake Cronenworth | 3B | 99 | 347 | 76 | 0.219 | 5 | 30 | 0.300 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.305 | 0.330 | OK |
| Samad Taylor | LF | 39 | 129 | 41 | 0.318 | 1 | 14 | 0.393 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.303 | 0.369 | 0.382 | OK |
| Ethan Salas | C | 9 | 21 | 3 | 0.143 | 2 | 3 | 0.143 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 0.278 | 0.836 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 29 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 0.172 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tyler Phillips | Starter | 35 | 114.8 | 3.68 | 1.376 | 7.5 | 96 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 75 | 5.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Calvin Faucher | Closer | 65 | 56.4 | 3.99 | 1.507 | 10.9 | 68 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Zuber | Setup Man | 42 | 31.6 | 5.98 | 1.646 | 11.7 | 41 | 0.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 61 | 54.8 | 3.45 | 1.241 | 12.2 | 74 | 1.1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 1.1 | 2 | 4 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Nick Pivetta | Starter | 6 | 25.0 | 3.60 | 1.000 | 11.2 | 31 | 5.0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 85 | 5.0 | 6 | 3 |
| Mason Miller | Closer | 61 | 61.3 | 1.17 | 0.897 | 17.5 | 119 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Setup Man | 71 | 72.8 | 3.21 | 1.195 | 12.4 | 100 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 62 | 58.9 | 2.14 | 1.138 | 11.3 | 74 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yuki Matsui | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 50 | 53.3 | 2.20 | 1.276 | 11.1 | 66 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
SD wins 6-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| BAL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
Quality edge: -1.247; margin adjustment: -0.5237; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 116 | 487 | 141 | 0.290 | 23 | 67 | 0.347 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.243 | 0.297 | 0.400 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 139 | 537 | 146 | 0.272 | 19 | 94 | 0.371 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.316 | 0.427 | 0.504 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 137 | 533 | 144 | 0.270 | 17 | 85 | 0.339 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.316 | 0.462 | OK |
| Andrew Vaughn | 1B | 97 | 281 | 88 | 0.313 | 6 | 43 | 0.391 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.300 | 0.370 | 0.439 | OK |
| Christian Yelich | DH | 107 | 403 | 94 | 0.233 | 11 | 54 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.299 | 0.350 | OK |
| Joey Ortiz | 3B | 110 | 341 | 91 | 0.267 | 9 | 45 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.306 | 0.361 | 0.451 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 128 | 419 | 111 | 0.265 | 10 | 58 | 0.352 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.238 | 0.320 | 0.448 | OK |
| Luis Lara | RF | 49 | 166 | 42 | 0.253 | 1 | 24 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.253 | 0.313 | 0.336 | OK |
| Cooper Pratt | SS | 62 | 198 | 55 | 0.278 | 3 | 30 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.229 | 0.296 | 0.302 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 38 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Dylan Beavers | LF | 92 | 292 | 70 | 0.240 | 7 | 38 | 0.310 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.261 | 0.321 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 150 | 562 | 151 | 0.269 | 37 | 102 | 0.362 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.355 | 0.571 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 147 | 585 | 129 | 0.221 | 22 | 57 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.295 | 0.374 | OK |
| Coby Mayo | 3B | 117 | 379 | 86 | 0.227 | 24 | 63 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.278 | 0.465 | OK |
| Samuel Basallo | C | 105 | 347 | 79 | 0.228 | 18 | 53 | 0.293 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.274 | 0.414 | OK |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | DH | 49 | 169 | 45 | 0.266 | 9 | 33 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.267 | 0.307 | 0.508 | OK |
| Colton Cowser | CF | 119 | 316 | 69 | 0.218 | 12 | 36 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.305 | 0.337 | OK |
| Jeremiah Jackson | 2B | 80 | 245 | 55 | 0.224 | 8 | 36 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.223 | 0.243 | 0.454 | OK |
| Leody Taveras | RF | 125 | 408 | 88 | 0.216 | 8 | 54 | 0.283 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.204 | 0.261 | 0.313 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dustin May | Starter | 7 | 28.4 | 5.07 | 1.338 | 8.6 | 27 | 4.2 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 85 | 4.2 | 4 | 4 |
| Trevor Megill | Closer | 58 | 56.5 | 1.91 | 0.885 | 10.4 | 65 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Abner Uribe | Setup Man | 57 | 50.9 | 2.30 | 1.120 | 9.9 | 56 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 72 | 77.1 | 3.62 | 1.518 | 13.0 | 111 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 19 | 14.3 | 7.55 | 1.888 | 7.6 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cade Povich | Starter | 7 | 32.4 | 4.17 | 1.481 | 6.9 | 25 | 4.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 90 | 4.1 | 7 | 2 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Closer | 53 | 42.0 | 4.07 | 1.548 | 8.1 | 38 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Rico Garcia | Setup Man | 71 | 55.0 | 2.78 | 1.055 | 10.6 | 65 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 63 | 37.2 | 2.90 | 1.156 | 10.2 | 42 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh Walker | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 28 | 21.7 | 2.07 | 1.382 | 10.8 | 26 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
MIL wins 7-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| LAA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
Quality edge: 0.1068; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Luke Keaschall | RF | 143 | 499 | 139 | 0.279 | 9 | 45 | 0.369 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.296 | 0.371 | 0.389 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | 3B | 144 | 548 | 136 | 0.248 | 23 | 80 | 0.297 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.254 | 0.297 | 0.367 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | 2B | 135 | 501 | 121 | 0.242 | 26 | 76 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.291 | 0.417 | OK |
| Ryan Jeffers | C | 82 | 294 | 76 | 0.259 | 14 | 54 | 0.354 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.151 | 0.248 | 0.308 | OK |
| Josh Bell | DH | 146 | 539 | 136 | 0.252 | 20 | 88 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.272 | 0.376 | OK |
| Emmanuel Rodriguez | LF | 6 | 23 | 5 | 0.217 | 1 | 4 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.257 | 0.455 | OK |
| Royce Lewis | 1B | 117 | 430 | 97 | 0.226 | 14 | 54 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.196 | 0.252 | 0.316 | OK |
| Walker Jenkins | CF | 15 | 49 | 7 | 0.143 | 2 | 7 | 0.250 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.291 | 0.381 | OK |
| Ben Ross | SS | 5 | 10 | 2 | 0.200 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.232 | 0.472 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 0.118 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | DH | 148 | 589 | 142 | 0.241 | 26 | 74 | 0.323 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.323 | 0.462 | OK |
| Mike Trout | CF | 134 | 485 | 117 | 0.241 | 21 | 53 | 0.379 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.224 | 0.354 | 0.368 | OK |
| Jose Siri | LF | 81 | 204 | 46 | 0.225 | 8 | 28 | 0.274 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.264 | 0.386 | OK |
| Vaughn Grissom | 1B | 107 | 386 | 92 | 0.238 | 11 | 64 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.278 | 0.365 | OK |
| Denzer Guzman | 3B | 71 | 252 | 58 | 0.230 | 7 | 29 | 0.271 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.277 | 0.350 | OK |
| Oswald Peraza | SS | 104 | 330 | 75 | 0.227 | 7 | 25 | 0.281 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.268 | 0.328 | OK |
| Travis d'Arnaud | C | 28 | 69 | 12 | 0.174 | 1 | 3 | 0.250 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.180 | 0.231 | 0.288 | OK |
| Christian Moore | 2B | 29 | 106 | 17 | 0.160 | 1 | 10 | 0.217 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.152 | 0.202 | 0.231 | OK |
| Wade Meckler | RF | 83 | 265 | 78 | 0.294 | 3 | 27 | 0.366 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.290 | 0.364 | 0.369 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0.118 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Connor Prielipp | Starter | 22 | 111.7 | 5.32 | 1.361 | 9.4 | 117 | 5.0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 93 | 5.0 | 6 | 4 |
| Yoendrys Gómez | Closer | 53 | 40.6 | 3.99 | 1.576 | 10.6 | 48 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Hoffman | Setup Man | 18 | 13.9 | 2.59 | 1.295 | 16.2 | 25 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| A.J. Minter | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 20 | 15.5 | 1.74 | 1.290 | 11.6 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Nance | Reliever | 23 | 22.1 | 4.89 | 1.674 | 13.0 | 32 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Grayson Rodriguez | Starter | 18 | 84.2 | 6.31 | 1.615 | 8.4 | 79 | 5.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 88 | 5.0 | 4 | 3 |
| Ben Joyce | Closer | 15 | 13.4 | 4.70 | 1.269 | 12.1 | 18 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 2.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Watson | Setup Man | 16 | 12.0 | 2.25 | 1.167 | 12.8 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Tayler Saucedo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 24 | 14.2 | 3.80 | 1.408 | 13.9 | 22 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0.1 | 2 | 0 |
LAA wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| ARI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
Quality edge: -0.786; margin adjustment: -0.3301; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 93 | 331 | 84 | 0.254 | 18 | 49 | 0.307 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.218 | 0.271 | 0.357 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 122 | 458 | 127 | 0.277 | 16 | 71 | 0.352 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.327 | 0.386 | 0.523 | OK |
| Heliot Ramos | RF | 28 | 80 | 13 | 0.162 | 2 | 8 | 0.302 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.249 | 0.311 | 0.425 | OK |
| Ben Rice | DH | 141 | 529 | 140 | 0.265 | 37 | 88 | 0.365 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.297 | 0.393 | 0.532 | OK |
| Amed Rosario | 3B | 77 | 210 | 50 | 0.238 | 10 | 31 | 0.274 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.251 | 0.286 | 0.386 | OK |
| Spencer Jones | CF | 75 | 231 | 58 | 0.251 | 10 | 37 | 0.320 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.249 | 0.304 | 0.424 | OK |
| George Lombard Jr. | SS | 33 | 117 | 27 | 0.231 | 3 | 12 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.286 | 0.340 | OK |
| Austin Wells | C | 113 | 318 | 57 | 0.179 | 12 | 30 | 0.275 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.147 | 0.243 | 0.328 | OK |
| Anthony Volpe | 2B | 60 | 191 | 48 | 0.251 | 2 | 24 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.255 | 0.334 | 0.364 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 38 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 31 | 97 | 23 | 0.237 | 3 | 10 | 0.345 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.333 | 0.364 | OK |
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 131 | 527 | 132 | 0.250 | 22 | 74 | 0.315 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.292 | 0.387 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | C | 122 | 443 | 136 | 0.307 | 15 | 75 | 0.385 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.321 | 0.384 | 0.553 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 147 | 525 | 132 | 0.251 | 9 | 49 | 0.359 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.262 | 0.368 | 0.347 | OK |
| Pavin Smith | 1B | 31 | 90 | 15 | 0.167 | 2 | 8 | 0.240 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.276 | 0.352 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 142 | 494 | 120 | 0.243 | 26 | 74 | 0.321 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.280 | 0.343 | 0.548 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 146 | 545 | 131 | 0.240 | 21 | 67 | 0.332 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.213 | 0.288 | 0.432 | OK |
| Jesús Sánchez | DH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.284 | 0.382 | |
| Tim Tawa | CF | 86 | 278 | 67 | 0.241 | 10 | 38 | 0.296 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.228 | 0.290 | 0.385 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 33 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Gerrit Cole | Starter | 20 | 113.0 | 3.74 | 1.150 | 9.3 | 117 | 5.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 112 | 5.2 | 4 | 2 |
| David Bednar | Closer | 61 | 61.9 | 2.76 | 1.115 | 10.8 | 74 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 77 | 61.2 | 2.35 | 1.438 | 13.8 | 94 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 59 | 72.8 | 1.85 | 1.195 | 8.2 | 66 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Starter | 30 | 174.6 | 2.68 | 1.243 | 7.0 | 135 | 6.0 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 114 | 6.0 | 5 | 4 |
| Brandyn Garcia | Closer | 36 | 26.8 | 2.01 | 0.784 | 12.1 | 36 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Juan Morillo | Setup Man | 48 | 40.4 | 2.90 | 1.114 | 12.3 | 55 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 48 | 40.8 | 3.09 | 1.225 | 7.1 | 32 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
NYY wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | x | 7 | 10 |
Quality edge: 1.2425; margin adjustment: 0.5218; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Henry Bolte | CF | 106 | 378 | 104 | 0.275 | 11 | 34 | 0.355 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.265 | 0.335 | 0.405 | OK |
| Shea Langeliers | DH | 97 | 388 | 103 | 0.265 | 23 | 55 | 0.332 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.267 | 0.323 | 0.471 | OK |
| Lawrence Butler | RF | 138 | 438 | 101 | 0.231 | 17 | 59 | 0.315 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.296 | 0.476 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | LF | 98 | 360 | 89 | 0.247 | 18 | 46 | 0.312 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.226 | 0.285 | 0.414 | OK |
| Jeff McNeil | 1B | 133 | 448 | 120 | 0.268 | 8 | 54 | 0.313 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.290 | 0.347 | OK |
| Tommy White | 3B | 46 | 170 | 43 | 0.253 | 3 | 9 | 0.269 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.229 | 0.245 | 0.345 | OK |
| Jonah Heim | C | 86 | 298 | 60 | 0.201 | 12 | 34 | 0.255 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.170 | 0.215 | 0.295 | OK |
| Michael Stefanic | 2B | 9 | 20 | 7 | 0.350 | 0 | 2 | 0.409 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.139 | 0.216 | 0.214 | OK |
| Alika Williams | SS | 70 | 199 | 51 | 0.256 | 4 | 15 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.238 | 0.278 | 0.400 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Steven Kwan | LF | 137 | 496 | 138 | 0.278 | 3 | 30 | 0.374 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.301 | 0.393 | 0.410 | OK |
| José Ramírez | 3B | 113 | 427 | 98 | 0.230 | 11 | 49 | 0.319 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.291 | 0.335 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | RF | 120 | 451 | 130 | 0.288 | 14 | 61 | 0.360 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.256 | 0.330 | 0.413 | OK |
| Jo Adell | DH | 38 | 142 | 34 | 0.239 | 6 | 29 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.252 | 0.289 | 0.439 | OK |
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 112 | 408 | 100 | 0.245 | 14 | 54 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.273 | 0.347 | 0.518 | OK |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 1B | 34 | 113 | 26 | 0.230 | 5 | 22 | 0.281 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.191 | 0.260 | 0.333 | OK |
| Patrick Bailey | C | 66 | 198 | 48 | 0.242 | 7 | 29 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.294 | 0.364 | OK |
| Petey Halpin | CF | 60 | 162 | 34 | 0.210 | 4 | 13 | 0.250 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.227 | 0.261 | 0.371 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 142 | 497 | 123 | 0.247 | 11 | 61 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.251 | 0.302 | 0.354 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 34 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Mason Barnett | Starter | 18 | 38.8 | 7.42 | 1.701 | 8.8 | 38 | 3.2 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 79 | 3.2 | 4 | 3 |
| Seth Johnson | Reliever | 7 | 10.3 | 4.37 | 1.262 | 13.1 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Roycroft | Reliever | 6 | 8.4 | 1.07 | 1.548 | 6.4 | 6 | 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 33 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Hogan Harris | Reliever | 71 | 55.9 | 4.03 | 1.717 | 13.7 | 85 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Daniel Espino | Starter | 11 | 11.4 | 3.16 | 1.316 | 16.6 | 21 | 3.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 64 | 3.0 | 6 | 1 |
| Cade Smith | Closer | 64 | 64.8 | 2.22 | 1.065 | 13.6 | 98 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Setup Man | 62 | 46.8 | 3.08 | 1.368 | 10.2 | 53 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Erik Sabrowski | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 55 | 35.3 | 3.31 | 1.360 | 17.8 | 70 | 2.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 47 | 2.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Tim Herrin | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 63 | 41.2 | 3.93 | 1.626 | 11.1 | 51 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
CLE wins 7-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.453; margin adjustment: -0.1903; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 145 | 550 | 129 | 0.235 | 44 | 94 | 0.347 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.194 | 0.298 | 0.437 | OK |
| Trea Turner | SS | 145 | 604 | 145 | 0.240 | 19 | 57 | 0.292 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.231 | 0.287 | 0.363 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | RF | 151 | 537 | 147 | 0.274 | 28 | 84 | 0.388 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.284 | 0.392 | 0.506 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 39 | 152 | 44 | 0.289 | 2 | 18 | 0.327 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.283 | 0.343 | 0.413 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 1B | 143 | 534 | 134 | 0.251 | 15 | 83 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.275 | 0.342 | 0.408 | OK |
| Edmundo Sosa | LF | 77 | 218 | 52 | 0.239 | 7 | 42 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.169 | 0.190 | 0.293 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 3B | 145 | 501 | 125 | 0.250 | 10 | 63 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.326 | 0.380 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 112 | 385 | 84 | 0.218 | 11 | 49 | 0.291 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.278 | 0.362 | OK |
| Derek Hill | CF | 41 | 112 | 30 | 0.268 | 6 | 22 | 0.299 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.182 | 0.221 | 0.365 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 35 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 0.257 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Francisco Lindor | SS | 94 | 376 | 86 | 0.229 | 20 | 47 | 0.311 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.278 | 0.378 | OK |
| Juan Soto | LF | 100 | 360 | 98 | 0.272 | 25 | 61 | 0.389 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.366 | 0.433 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | 3B | 147 | 589 | 156 | 0.265 | 16 | 74 | 0.312 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.294 | 0.337 | OK |
| Carson Benge | RF | 143 | 550 | 147 | 0.267 | 18 | 57 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.309 | 0.389 | OK |
| Mark Vientos | DH | 79 | 253 | 55 | 0.217 | 13 | 39 | 0.259 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.223 | 0.272 | 0.428 | OK |
| A.J. Ewing | CF | 110 | 402 | 103 | 0.256 | 10 | 38 | 0.327 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.261 | 0.329 | 0.397 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 128 | 454 | 102 | 0.225 | 14 | 48 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.234 | 0.298 | 0.330 | OK |
| Brett Baty | 1B | 126 | 393 | 91 | 0.232 | 10 | 50 | 0.299 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.234 | 0.311 | 0.381 | OK |
| Luis Torrens | C | 79 | 237 | 58 | 0.245 | 9 | 40 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.237 | 0.283 | 0.441 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tim Mayza | Starter | 56 | 59.3 | 3.34 | 1.147 | 9.6 | 63 | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 89 | 5.0 | 10 | 2 |
| Jhoan Duran | Closer | 57 | 55.4 | 1.46 | 0.975 | 12.8 | 79 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Chase Shugart | Setup Man | 41 | 44.2 | 4.68 | 1.290 | 11.0 | 54 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jonathan Bowlan | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 59 | 51.2 | 3.69 | 1.133 | 12.8 | 73 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Zac Thornton | Starter | 13 | 72.4 | 3.48 | 1.174 | 6.8 | 55 | 5.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 91 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 |
| Kodai Senga | Closer | 29 | 57.2 | 7.40 | 1.678 | 11.5 | 73 | 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Nathan Lavender | Setup Man | 17 | 12.8 | 2.11 | 1.172 | 15.5 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jonathan Pintaro | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 20 | 27.9 | 4.84 | 1.362 | 9.7 | 30 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
PHI wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 10 |
| COL | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
Quality edge: -1.003; margin adjustment: -0.4213; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| J.P. Crawford | SS | 107 | 380 | 85 | 0.224 | 12 | 37 | 0.342 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.240 | 0.325 | 0.389 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 145 | 540 | 150 | 0.278 | 25 | 75 | 0.375 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.301 | 0.367 | 0.524 | OK |
| Dominic Canzone | DH | 135 | 443 | 114 | 0.257 | 22 | 69 | 0.324 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.278 | 0.329 | 0.487 | OK |
| Cal Raleigh | C | 117 | 422 | 77 | 0.182 | 22 | 66 | 0.294 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.307 | 0.375 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 141 | 564 | 137 | 0.243 | 21 | 66 | 0.303 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.274 | 0.324 | 0.406 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 143 | 562 | 153 | 0.272 | 10 | 52 | 0.327 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.303 | 0.344 | 0.378 | OK |
| Cole Young | 2B | 151 | 551 | 136 | 0.247 | 17 | 65 | 0.309 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.243 | 0.285 | 0.388 | OK |
| Lazaro Montes | RF | 11 | 28 | 7 | 0.250 | 3 | 8 | 0.276 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.233 | 0.262 | 0.442 | OK |
| Brock Rodden | 3B | 21 | 57 | 12 | 0.211 | 0 | 4 | 0.303 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.221 | 0.308 | 0.317 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 43 | 37 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jake McCarthy | LF | 132 | 511 | 151 | 0.295 | 15 | 79 | 0.338 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.286 | 0.317 | 0.447 | OK |
| Connor Norby | DH | 32 | 106 | 31 | 0.292 | 3 | 15 | 0.380 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 0.327 | 0.405 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 144 | 515 | 156 | 0.303 | 15 | 68 | 0.394 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.301 | 0.381 | 0.421 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | C | 129 | 482 | 118 | 0.245 | 38 | 81 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.279 | 0.468 | OK |
| Cole Carrigg | CF | 81 | 297 | 79 | 0.266 | 10 | 45 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.263 | 0.317 | 0.485 | OK |
| Kyle Karros | 3B | 119 | 377 | 99 | 0.263 | 12 | 48 | 0.357 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.325 | 0.436 | OK |
| Mickey Moniak | RF | 107 | 381 | 93 | 0.244 | 22 | 64 | 0.282 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.232 | 0.274 | 0.461 | OK |
| Adael Amador | 2B | 18 | 59 | 17 | 0.288 | 4 | 13 | 0.364 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.177 | 0.246 | 0.343 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 133 | 434 | 94 | 0.217 | 11 | 42 | 0.264 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.216 | 0.269 | 0.354 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bryan Woo | Starter | 28 | 161.4 | 3.90 | 1.053 | 9.1 | 163 | 6.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 115 | 6.0 | 6 | 3 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Closer | 58 | 52.5 | 4.11 | 1.238 | 14.9 | 87 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| José A. Ferrer | Setup Man | 67 | 51.8 | 4.34 | 1.660 | 8.5 | 49 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 68 | 53.3 | 4.56 | 1.707 | 10.8 | 64 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Gabe Speier | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 50 | 35.9 | 3.51 | 1.309 | 10.0 | 40 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Gabriel Hughes | Starter | 13 | 58.4 | 6.47 | 1.473 | 7.7 | 50 | 4.0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 83 | 4.0 | 2 | 6 |
| Jordan Romano | Closer | 24 | 21.5 | 3.35 | 1.209 | 9.6 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brennan Bernardino | Setup Man | 69 | 49.6 | 2.90 | 1.331 | 8.2 | 45 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Herget | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 48 | 43.7 | 6.59 | 1.693 | 8.9 | 43 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 42 | 29.2 | 5.55 | 1.815 | 11.4 | 37 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 61 | 56.6 | 6.20 | 1.979 | 9.9 | 62 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Nick Frasso | Reliever | 16 | 14.8 | 8.51 | 1.959 | 11.6 | 19 | 0.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.1 | 0 | 2 |
SEA wins 9-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 3 |
Quality edge: 1.4218; margin adjustment: 0.5972; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Drew Gilbert | CF | 114 | 318 | 76 | 0.239 | 10 | 40 | 0.308 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.154 | 0.215 | 0.341 | OK |
| Turner Hill | LF | 26 | 85 | 21 | 0.247 | 1 | 15 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.311 | 0.340 | OK |
| Jonah Cox | 2B | 42 | 118 | 35 | 0.297 | 4 | 13 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.282 | 0.322 | 0.410 | OK |
| Jung Hoo Lee | RF | 136 | 519 | 142 | 0.274 | 8 | 52 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.245 | 0.300 | OK |
| Shay Whitcomb | 3B | 19 | 66 | 15 | 0.227 | 2 | 6 | 0.227 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.249 | 0.407 | OK |
| Drew Cavanaugh | C | 49 | 129 | 31 | 0.240 | 1 | 10 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.202 | 0.282 | 0.298 | OK |
| Brett Harris | 1B | 5 | 11 | 2 | 0.182 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.141 | 0.186 | 0.220 | OK |
| Scott Bandura | DH | 4 | 10 | 2 | 0.200 | 0 | 0 | 0.273 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.268 | 0.313 | OK |
| Christian Koss | SS | 56 | 172 | 42 | 0.244 | 4 | 12 | 0.286 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.267 | 0.302 | 0.351 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Mookie Betts | SS | 112 | 441 | 111 | 0.252 | 20 | 62 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.273 | 0.333 | 0.453 | OK |
| Will Smith | C | 63 | 212 | 51 | 0.241 | 7 | 29 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.348 | 0.404 | OK |
| Teoscar Hernández | LF | 114 | 403 | 106 | 0.263 | 15 | 61 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.329 | 0.461 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 144 | 542 | 160 | 0.295 | 16 | 65 | 0.373 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.283 | 0.353 | 0.404 | OK |
| Miguel Rojas | 2B | 90 | 211 | 57 | 0.270 | 4 | 21 | 0.300 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.293 | 0.414 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 141 | 504 | 117 | 0.232 | 16 | 69 | 0.326 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.291 | 0.379 | 0.566 | OK |
| Enrique Hernández | 3B | 31 | 74 | 17 | 0.230 | 3 | 10 | 0.288 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.161 | 0.225 | 0.288 | OK |
| Alex Call | CF | 69 | 158 | 37 | 0.234 | 1 | 19 | 0.335 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.306 | 0.286 | OK |
| Josue De Paula | DH | 5 | 14 | 2 | 0.143 | 1 | 3 | 0.368 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.169 | 0.364 | 0.438 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 30 | 27 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0.111 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cesar Perdomo | Starter | 3 | 14.2 | 3.80 | 1.408 | 7.0 | 11 | 5.0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 94 | 5.0 | 3 | 4 |
| Dylan Smith | Closer | 38 | 31.8 | 3.96 | 1.667 | 11.9 | 42 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Trent Harris | Setup Man | 17 | 18.4 | 2.45 | 1.141 | 12.2 | 25 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Carson Seymour | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 20 | 23.4 | 5.77 | 1.923 | 7.3 | 19 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tyler Glasnow | Starter | 11 | 61.2 | 3.53 | 0.980 | 11.3 | 77 | 5.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 100 | 5.2 | 9 | 2 |
| Tanner Scott | Closer | 65 | 54.3 | 3.15 | 1.123 | 12.6 | 76 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brock Stewart | Setup Man | 24 | 21.1 | 2.56 | 1.137 | 9.0 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 68 | 43.5 | 3.52 | 1.402 | 13.9 | 67 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
LAD wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| TEX | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | x | 5 | 10 |
Quality edge: 0.1231; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Brett Bateman | CF | 34 | 138 | 46 | 0.333 | 2 | 11 | 0.400 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.292 | 0.347 | 0.398 | OK |
| Nathan Lukes | RF | 113 | 383 | 105 | 0.274 | 10 | 37 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.273 | 0.302 | 0.358 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 137 | 520 | 136 | 0.262 | 9 | 56 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.322 | 0.380 | OK |
| George Springer | DH | 116 | 438 | 111 | 0.253 | 15 | 52 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.336 | 0.414 | OK |
| Alejandro Kirk | C | 70 | 254 | 71 | 0.280 | 10 | 41 | 0.347 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.261 | 0.330 | 0.395 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 146 | 537 | 126 | 0.235 | 33 | 88 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.306 | 0.495 | OK |
| Josh Smith | 2B | 24 | 53 | 13 | 0.245 | 5 | 7 | 0.349 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.285 | 0.346 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | SS | 148 | 560 | 150 | 0.268 | 9 | 47 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.271 | 0.337 | OK |
| Myles Straw | LF | 115 | 273 | 64 | 0.234 | 3 | 24 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.227 | 0.289 | 0.318 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ezequiel Duran | 3B | 142 | 507 | 136 | 0.268 | 17 | 82 | 0.329 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.262 | 0.316 | 0.400 | OK |
| Corey Seager | SS | 92 | 346 | 81 | 0.234 | 18 | 46 | 0.325 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.257 | 0.328 | 0.450 | OK |
| Josh Jung | DH | 97 | 376 | 112 | 0.298 | 10 | 38 | 0.361 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.301 | 0.350 | 0.456 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 147 | 563 | 147 | 0.261 | 14 | 61 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.242 | 0.290 | 0.371 | OK |
| Wyatt Langford | LF | 101 | 382 | 91 | 0.238 | 17 | 40 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.304 | 0.397 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 145 | 524 | 122 | 0.233 | 26 | 84 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.207 | 0.290 | 0.389 | OK |
| Nicky Lopez | 2B | 81 | 214 | 59 | 0.276 | 1 | 23 | 0.322 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.221 | 0.262 | 0.271 | OK |
| Elias Díaz | C | 62 | 187 | 45 | 0.241 | 5 | 28 | 0.264 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.241 | 0.260 | 0.387 | OK |
| Evan Carter | CF | 130 | 369 | 71 | 0.192 | 9 | 36 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.180 | 0.263 | 0.295 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 33 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 0.303 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dylan Cease | Starter | 28 | 163.3 | 2.42 | 1.084 | 13.0 | 236 | 6.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 114 | 6.0 | 9 | 3 |
| Louis Varland | Closer | 69 | 70.4 | 1.41 | 1.080 | 12.1 | 95 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Rogers | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 70 | 63.0 | 1.86 | 1.238 | 5.4 | 38 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kumar Rocker | Starter | 28 | 134.7 | 4.68 | 1.470 | 8.8 | 132 | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 92 | 5.0 | 3 | 1 |
| Jacob Latz | Closer | 54 | 63.9 | 1.83 | 0.814 | 10.8 | 77 | 1.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 1.1 | 1 | 3 |
| Jakob Junis | Setup Man | 49 | 47.7 | 3.21 | 1.258 | 7.0 | 37 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 20 | 13.5 | 5.33 | 1.852 | 13.3 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
TEX wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 6 |
Quality edge: -0.0131; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | DH | 126 | 479 | 127 | 0.265 | 30 | 75 | 0.391 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.390 | 0.481 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | LF | 151 | 569 | 143 | 0.251 | 21 | 85 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.289 | 0.330 | 0.495 | OK |
| Dylan Crews | RF | 98 | 369 | 82 | 0.222 | 11 | 40 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.267 | 0.356 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 143 | 546 | 144 | 0.264 | 30 | 96 | 0.339 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.310 | 0.441 | OK |
| Brady House | 3B | 85 | 297 | 71 | 0.239 | 10 | 44 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.154 | 0.227 | 0.274 | OK |
| Jorbit Vivas | 2B | 108 | 290 | 70 | 0.241 | 3 | 29 | 0.330 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.248 | 0.329 | 0.348 | OK |
| Yohandy Morales | 1B | 10 | 30 | 9 | 0.300 | 2 | 4 | 0.300 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.235 | 0.244 | 0.448 | OK |
| Harry Ford | C | 30 | 89 | 17 | 0.191 | 3 | 10 | 0.301 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.123 | 0.238 | 0.256 | OK |
| Jacob Young | CF | 121 | 401 | 99 | 0.247 | 10 | 45 | 0.307 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.269 | 0.340 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 29 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0.069 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| JJ Wetherholt | 2B | 127 | 498 | 120 | 0.241 | 17 | 47 | 0.341 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.309 | 0.352 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | DH | 148 | 561 | 134 | 0.239 | 15 | 63 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.132 | 0.228 | 0.232 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 148 | 565 | 160 | 0.283 | 23 | 108 | 0.349 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.291 | 0.356 | 0.503 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 146 | 562 | 156 | 0.278 | 26 | 95 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.220 | 0.291 | 0.363 | OK |
| Leonardo Bernal | C | 15 | 61 | 18 | 0.295 | 3 | 15 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.286 | 0.403 | OK |
| Thomas Saggese | 3B | 43 | 135 | 36 | 0.267 | 4 | 13 | 0.315 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 0.317 | 0.394 | OK |
| Bryan Torres | LF | 58 | 144 | 36 | 0.250 | 3 | 17 | 0.321 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.246 | 0.324 | 0.334 | OK |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 123 | 444 | 105 | 0.236 | 5 | 54 | 0.308 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.153 | 0.225 | 0.239 | OK |
| Nathan Church | CF | 120 | 401 | 102 | 0.254 | 10 | 49 | 0.300 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.291 | 0.334 | 0.396 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0.200 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cade Cavalli | Starter | 31 | 162.1 | 3.16 | 1.184 | 10.8 | 194 | 5.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 110 | 5.2 | 6 | 3 |
| Erik Tolman | Closer | 10 | 10.4 | 2.60 | 1.250 | 9.5 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Lord | Setup Man | 38 | 70.3 | 4.48 | 1.394 | 9.1 | 71 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kyle Leahy | Starter | 28 | 133.6 | 3.37 | 1.325 | 8.6 | 128 | 5.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 83 | 5.0 | 6 | 1 |
| Riley O'Brien | Closer | 64 | 59.2 | 4.41 | 1.368 | 9.4 | 62 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Setup Man | 68 | 55.6 | 5.02 | 1.637 | 10.2 | 63 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 66 | 51.6 | 4.71 | 1.550 | 11.2 | 64 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 1.2 | 3 | 0 |
STL wins 4-3