MLB Predictions — September 14, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
ATL @ CHC	5 - 6	5 - 6	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 6-5	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BAL @ NYM	4 - 7	4 - 7	NYM	NYM	NYM wins 7-4	63%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHW @ CLE	4 - 5	4 - 5	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 5-4	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
DET @ TOR	5 - 4	5 - 4	DET	DET	DET wins 5-4	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ CIN	8 - 3	8 - 3	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 8-3	58%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIA @ ARI	5 - 4	5 - 4	MIA	MIA	MIA wins 5-4	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYY @ MIN	6 - 4	6 - 4	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 6-4	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ COL	8 - 5	8 - 5	SD	SD	SD wins 8-5	58%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SEA @ LAA	5 - 6	5 - 6	LAA	LAA	LAA wins 6-5	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SF @ STL	4 - 5	4 - 5	STL	STL	STL wins 5-4	50%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs

ATL 88-63 (4.6 RPG / 3.87 RA)

5 - 6

CHC 83-67 (5.33 RPG / 4.41 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 6-5 TARGET: ATL 5 - 6 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 52.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
ATL	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	5	7
CHC	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	6	11

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff-2

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff6

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

ATL Season Quality

Record88-62

Win%0.587

Run Diff116

RD/Game0.773

CHC Season Quality

Record83-67

Win%0.553

Run Diff138

RD/Game0.920

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1076; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	96	366	95	0.260	17	47	0.351	5	3	1	1	1	2	0	0.333	0.281	0.346	0.473	OK
Drake Baldwin	DH	126	495	137	0.277	23	75	0.353	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.277	0.338	0.454	OK
Matt Olson	1B	149	575	143	0.249	38	83	0.322	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.262	0.326	0.539	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	149	565	140	0.248	21	69	0.303	5	5	2	1	2	0	1	0.400	0.197	0.248	0.323	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	143	545	160	0.294	25	83	0.318	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.292	0.312	0.452	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	141	523	141	0.270	11	69	0.315	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.285	0.322	0.383	OK
Austin Riley	3B	147	519	116	0.224	17	68	0.297	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.216	0.285	0.395	OK
Sean Murphy	C	24	81	17	0.210	3	8	0.273	4	4	1	1	1	0	3	0.250	0.205	0.269	0.344	OK
Ha-Seong Kim	SS	38	109	14	0.128	0	9	0.228	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.153	0.248	0.188	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	37	7	5	5	4	9	0.189

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	148	570	159	0.279	41	98	0.373	5	5	1	1	1	0	3	0.200	0.228	0.303	0.444	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	130	494	134	0.271	24	81	0.371	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.227	0.325	0.386	OK
Michael Busch	1B	146	553	133	0.241	18	74	0.346	5	4	2	1	1	1	2	0.500	0.256	0.346	0.438	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	146	575	153	0.266	25	84	0.356	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.295	0.376	0.485	OK
Ian Happ	LF	140	502	110	0.219	23	65	0.327	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.184	0.311	0.308	OK
Nico Hoerner	SS	145	578	154	0.266	8	68	0.316	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.274	0.314	0.358	OK
Michael Conforto	DH	98	236	56	0.237	14	40	0.325	5	4	2	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.224	0.310	0.430	OK
Pedro Ramirez	2B	67	203	54	0.266	6	29	0.323	5	4	1	1	2	1	1	0.250	0.245	0.300	0.436	OK
Carson Kelly	C	106	354	92	0.260	10	55	0.337	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.158	0.226	0.257	OK
TEAM TOTALS									44	40	11	6	6	3	7	0.275

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Reynaldo López	Starter	25	74.0	4.26	1.432	8.6	71	4.2	5	3	3	2	4	91	4.2	4	3
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	54	52.9	2.89	1.210	9.7	57	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Dylan Lee	Setup Man	67	55.6	3.24	1.025	12.1	75	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	0.0	0	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	53	61.3	2.50	1.175	12.5	85	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Dylan Dodd	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	44	40.2	2.69	1.045	10.5	47	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Bailey Falter	Reliever	2	3.1	0.00	0.645	5.8	2	0.1	5	3	3	0	0	23	0.0	0	3

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
David Peterson	Starter	13	60.3	4.63	1.575	8.1	54	4.1	6	4	4	3	6	91	4.1	6	4
Jacob Webb	Closer	64	56.7	3.65	1.376	10.8	68	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	15	10.3	7.86	1.942	12.2	14	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	0.0	0	0
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	27	22.9	4.32	1.397	10.2	26	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	54	37.8	5.71	1.587	13.8	58	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	25	2.0	1	0

Game Summary

CHC wins 6-5

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets

BAL 73-78 (4.46 RPG / 4.69 RA)

4 - 7

NYM 69-81 (4.29 RPG / 4.53 RA)

WINNER: NYM wins 7-4 TARGET: BAL 4 - 7 NYM (NYM) Confidence: 62.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	9
NYM	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	x	7	12

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed5.2

Run Diff-15

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak2L

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs7.6

Avg Allowed5.4

Run Diff22

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

BAL Season Quality

Record72-78

Win%0.480

Run Diff-35

RD/Game-0.233

NYM Season Quality

Record69-80

Win%0.463

Run Diff-34

RD/Game-0.228

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3369; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Dylan Beavers	LF	89	282	70	0.248	7	38	0.317	5	5	2	1	2	0	1	0.400	0.242	0.295	0.402	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	147	550	149	0.271	35	100	0.365	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.283	0.365	0.529	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	144	572	127	0.222	21	56	0.309	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.244	0.334	0.378	OK
Coby Mayo	3B	114	367	83	0.226	23	60	0.291	5	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.230	0.285	0.478	OK
Jackson Holliday	2B	92	306	68	0.222	7	30	0.288	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.189	0.244	0.279	OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	DH	46	156	39	0.250	7	30	0.302	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.245	0.294	0.418	OK
Heston Kjerstad	RF	7	12	2	0.167	0	1	0.167	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.183	0.194	0.216	OK
Colton Cowser	CF	116	305	66	0.216	12	36	0.303	4	3	3	1	2	0	0	1.000	0.193	0.281	0.311	OK
Carlos Narváez	C	25	66	7	0.106	0	0	0.203	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.147	0.203	0.208	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	9	4	4	2	6	0.250

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Francisco Lindor	SS	90	360	84	0.233	20	47	0.313	5	4	3	1	3	1	0	0.750	0.225	0.290	0.498	OK
Juan Soto	LF	96	346	95	0.275	25	60	0.389	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	0.500	0.248	0.346	0.497	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	143	571	151	0.264	16	73	0.314	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.246	0.298	0.365	OK
Carson Benge	RF	139	533	143	0.268	17	56	0.333	5	5	1	1	0	0	3	0.200	0.258	0.325	0.396	OK
Jared Young	DH	93	295	79	0.268	8	35	0.330	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.276	0.334	0.427	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	125	442	99	0.224	14	46	0.290	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.237	0.298	0.334	OK
A.J. Ewing	CF	106	387	98	0.253	9	37	0.323	4	3	1	1	1	0	2	0.333	0.273	0.338	0.414	OK
Brett Baty	1B	122	383	89	0.232	10	50	0.296	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.263	0.323	0.470	OK
Francisco Alvarez	C	99	330	74	0.224	14	35	0.309	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.210	0.281	0.354	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	36	12	7	7	4	12	0.333

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brandon Young	Starter	25	136.0	3.84	1.397	7.4	112	5.1	7	3	3	1	8	104	5.1	8	3
Rico Garcia	Setup Man	69	53.8	2.84	1.041	10.9	65	1.2	2	1	1	0	2	29	1.2	2	1
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	61	36.1	2.99	1.163	10.5	42	1.0	3	3	3	3	2	34	1.0	2	2

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jonah Tong	Starter	4	14.3	5.03	1.399	8.8	14	5.0	6	1	1	2	5	96	5.0	5	1
Kodai Senga	Closer	27	55.2	7.50	1.685	11.1	68	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1
Daniel Duarte	Setup Man	23	25.4	2.48	0.906	9.9	28	1.1	2	2	2	0	0	23	1.1	0	2
Nathan Lavender	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	16	11.6	2.33	1.293	14.0	18	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0

Game Summary

NYM wins 7-4

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

CHW 77-73 (4.68 RPG / 4.43 RA)

4 - 5

CLE 76-75 (4.09 RPG / 4.17 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 5-4 TARGET: CHW 4 - 5 CLE (CLE) Confidence: 50.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	4	8
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	x	5	8

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff-9

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.9

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

CHW Season Quality

Record76-73

Win%0.510

Run Diff34

RD/Game0.228

CLE Season Quality

Record76-74

Win%0.507

Run Diff-7

RD/Game-0.047

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0028; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Sam Antonacci	LF	128	443	119	0.269	8	44	0.366	5	5	2	1	3	0	0	0.400	0.270	0.326	0.395	OK
Kyle Teel	C	28	85	17	0.200	4	18	0.299	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.204	0.304	0.378	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	146	547	135	0.247	30	79	0.354	5	3	1	1	0	2	1	0.333	0.229	0.311	0.391	OK
Munetaka Murakami	1B	114	408	84	0.206	31	65	0.345	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.191	0.318	0.436	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	132	398	96	0.241	14	70	0.302	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.208	0.271	0.364	OK
Tristan Peters	CF	137	409	114	0.279	12	54	0.341	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.258	0.304	0.403	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	141	529	109	0.206	31	84	0.291	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.159	0.245	0.334	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	142	525	140	0.267	14	54	0.343	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.238	0.325	0.425	OK
Braden Montgomery	RF	80	285	61	0.214	6	37	0.310	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.196	0.296	0.323	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	35	8	4	4	5	7	0.229

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	CF	134	487	136	0.279	3	30	0.373	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.293	0.378	0.387	OK
José Ramírez	3B	110	415	95	0.229	11	48	0.321	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.180	0.257	0.277	OK
Chase DeLauter	DH	119	448	130	0.290	14	61	0.361	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.279	0.353	0.444	OK
Jo Adell	RF	35	131	31	0.237	5	25	0.318	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.229	0.262	0.400	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	109	396	97	0.245	12	52	0.339	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.274	0.366	0.486	OK
Angel Martínez	LF	98	356	89	0.250	15	53	0.287	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.262	0.283	0.461	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	32	107	24	0.224	5	22	0.279	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.242	0.312	0.439	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	64	191	47	0.246	7	29	0.310	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.246	0.305	0.368	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	139	488	120	0.246	11	59	0.305	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.243	0.285	0.346	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	32	8	5	5	0	6	0.250

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sean Newcomb	Starter	53	73.6	3.18	1.277	9.5	78	5.0	6	3	3	0	3	81	5.0	3	3
Grant Taylor	Closer	41	51.9	2.60	1.118	13.2	76	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0
Bryan Hudson	Setup Man	60	52.8	2.90	1.307	9.4	55	1.2	2	2	2	0	1	25	1.2	1	2

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gavin Williams	Starter	29	165.5	3.86	1.118	12.4	228	5.1	2	1	1	4	7	101	5.1	7	1
Cade Smith	Closer	62	62.5	2.30	1.104	13.7	95	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	25	1.0	0	0
Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	60	44.8	3.01	1.362	10.2	51	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	22	1.0	0	1
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	53	34.1	3.43	1.320	17.9	68	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	61	40.0	3.82	1.575	10.8	48	0.2	3	2	2	1	0	21	0.2	0	2

Game Summary

CLE wins 5-4

Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays

DET 70-79 (4.47 RPG / 4.0 RA)

5 - 4

TOR 75-75 (4.05 RPG / 4.26 RA)

WINNER: DET wins 5-4 TARGET: DET 5 - 4 TOR (DET) Confidence: 50.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	7
TOR	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	9

DET Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.6

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff23

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak4W

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff13

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

DET Season Quality

Record70-79

Win%0.470

Run Diff70

RD/Game0.470

TOR Season Quality

Record75-75

Win%0.500

Run Diff-31

RD/Game-0.207

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4635; margin adjustment: -0.1947; applied: True

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kevin McGonigle	SS	142	546	149	0.273	17	65	0.374	5	4	0	1	1	1	2	0.000	0.264	0.357	0.470	OK
Gleyber Torres	2B	86	323	86	0.266	8	37	0.368	5	4	0	1	1	1	3	0.000	0.223	0.323	0.310	OK
Riley Greene	DH	126	463	132	0.285	20	71	0.372	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.301	0.381	0.534	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	134	509	125	0.246	27	87	0.305	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.212	0.246	0.385	OK
Brett Callahan	LF	20	48	11	0.229	1	7	0.283	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.142	0.195	0.287	OK
Max Clark	CF	38	131	34	0.260	3	16	0.345	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.271	0.344	0.452	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	144	485	106	0.219	22	66	0.311	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.245	0.325	0.478	OK
Zach McKinstry	RF	114	351	74	0.211	4	26	0.292	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.187	0.271	0.292	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	3B	95	274	72	0.263	8	41	0.321	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.254	0.338	0.425	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	34	7	5	5	5	12	0.206

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Brett Bateman	CF	31	125	41	0.328	2	11	0.401	5	5	2	1	2	0	2	0.400	0.270	0.339	0.424	OK
George Springer	DH	113	429	108	0.252	15	51	0.324	5	5	3	1	0	0	2	0.600	0.249	0.303	0.406	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	134	510	135	0.265	9	56	0.332	5	3	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.292	0.349	0.421	OK
Alejandro Kirk	C	68	246	68	0.276	10	39	0.344	5	5	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.263	0.328	0.432	OK
Nathan Lukes	RF	110	373	102	0.273	10	36	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.212	0.248	0.287	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	143	526	124	0.236	32	85	0.311	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.263	0.334	0.584	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	132	441	108	0.245	9	56	0.291	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.233	0.262	0.344	OK
Josh Smith	LF	21	45	12	0.267	5	7	0.370	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.233	0.317	0.392	OK
Ernie Clement	2B	145	550	149	0.271	9	46	0.298	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.228	0.257	0.318	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	9	4	4	3	11	0.250

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Troy Melton	Starter	18	105.2	2.48	1.074	7.4	87	6.0	7	3	3	2	6	117	6.0	6	3
Kenley Jansen	Closer	45	37.5	3.36	1.173	11.3	47	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Tyler Holton	Setup Man	63	58.5	3.23	1.453	8.5	55	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	21	1.1	2	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	58	51.4	3.68	1.673	8.1	46	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	11	0.2	2	1

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
José Soriano	Starter	7	38.6	4.20	1.425	6.3	27	5.2	4	4	4	4	7	111	5.2	7	5
Louis Varland	Closer	67	68.2	1.32	1.070	12.0	91	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	70	63.0	1.86	1.238	5.4	38	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	46	82.9	2.93	1.146	9.3	86	1.1	2	1	1	1	2	39	1.1	2	0

Game Summary

DET wins 5-4

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds

LAD 91-59 (4.97 RPG / 3.81 RA)

8 - 3

CIN 70-80 (4.17 RPG / 5.15 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 8-3 TARGET: LAD 8 - 3 CIN (LAD) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	2	1	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	12
CIN	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	5

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.7

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff24

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak2L

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed8.3

Run Diff-33

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

LAD Season Quality

Record90-59

Win%0.604

Run Diff170

RD/Game1.141

CIN Season Quality

Record70-79

Win%0.470

Run Diff-145

RD/Game-0.973

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.8942; margin adjustment: -3.0307; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Tommy Edman	CF	68	245	62	0.253	6	32	0.332	5	4	3	1	4	1	1	0.750	0.243	0.304	0.372	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	109	429	108	0.252	20	62	0.313	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.276	0.342	0.510	OK
Will Smith	C	61	204	49	0.240	7	28	0.333	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.266	0.352	0.438	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	137	491	111	0.226	14	65	0.318	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0.200	0.228	0.310	0.440	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	110	389	103	0.265	13	57	0.331	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.325	0.391	0.509	OK
Miguel Rojas	2B	87	202	55	0.272	3	20	0.300	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.265	0.296	0.391	OK
Max Muncy	3B	135	444	112	0.252	28	71	0.350	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	0.500	0.279	0.360	0.539	OK
Enrique Hernández	1B	29	68	15	0.221	3	9	0.274	5	5	1	1	2	0	1	0.200	0.235	0.289	0.423	OK
Josue De Paula	DH	3	7	2	0.286	1	3	0.545	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.292	0.519	0.793	OK
TEAM TOTALS									44	39	12	8	8	5	7	0.308

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Dane Myers	CF	93	257	66	0.257	5	22	0.344	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.242	0.308	0.324	OK
Elly De La Cruz	SS	127	501	144	0.287	26	71	0.366	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.286	0.350	0.555	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	146	560	151	0.270	30	104	0.339	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.274	0.334	0.420	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	116	374	94	0.251	15	53	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.248	0.330	0.405	OK
Eugenio Suárez	DH	113	394	85	0.216	24	68	0.310	4	4	3	1	0	0	1	0.750	0.225	0.310	0.528	OK
Juan Brito	2B	7	23	8	0.348	2	8	0.385	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.233	0.288	0.404	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	117	418	92	0.220	22	56	0.329	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.198	0.299	0.350	OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3B	68	207	31	0.150	5	8	0.207	3	1	0	1	0	2	0	0.000	0.099	0.150	0.160	OK
TJ Friedl	CF	77	234	38	0.162	4	12	0.245	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.160	0.225	0.244	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	5	3	3	2	8	0.156

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tarik Skubal	Starter	7	42.3	2.98	1.135	10.2	48	6.2	5	3	3	1	7	115	6.2	7	3
Tanner Scott	Closer	64	53.3	3.21	1.107	12.3	73	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	12	0.2	0	0
Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	61	51.6	3.31	1.202	12.4	71	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	25	1.0	1	0
Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	23	20.1	2.69	1.144	9.0	20	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	10	0.2	0	0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nick Lodolo	Starter	18	87.1	5.27	1.573	7.7	75	4.1	9	8	8	3	3	94	4.1	3	7
Emilio Pagán	Closer	40	37.5	3.84	1.067	9.4	39	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Luis Mey	Setup Man	23	26.8	7.05	1.866	14.4	43	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	73	61.0	2.80	1.475	10.6	72	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	41	36.1	6.23	1.662	8.7	35	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	1.0	2	0
Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	51	42.9	3.36	1.189	10.9	52	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	7	0.1	1	0
Pierce Johnson	Reliever	51	34.8	5.95	1.724	9.3	36	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 8-3

Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks

MIA 74-76 (4.44 RPG / 4.4 RA)

5 - 4

ARI 79-71 (4.43 RPG / 4.42 RA)

WINNER: MIA wins 5-4 TARGET: MIA 5 - 4 ARI (MIA) Confidence: 51.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	1	5	8
ARI	0	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4	7

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs5.4

Avg Allowed6.6

Run Diff-12

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak2W

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak2L

MIA Season Quality

Record74-76

Win%0.493

Run Diff6

RD/Game0.040

ARI Season Quality

Record79-71

Win%0.527

Run Diff2

RD/Game0.013

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.165; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kyle Stowers	1B	112	413	100	0.242	19	60	0.331	5	5	1	1	2	0	2	0.200	0.226	0.301	0.411	OK
Heriberto Hernández	LF	116	399	90	0.226	24	63	0.306	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.200	0.268	0.372	OK
Xavier Edwards	2B	136	503	142	0.282	6	51	0.362	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.243	0.327	0.312	OK
Griffin Conine	RF	78	242	63	0.260	15	36	0.351	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.264	0.333	0.428	OK
Otto Lopez	SS	146	582	180	0.309	10	69	0.350	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.356	0.393	0.472	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	140	479	106	0.221	9	36	0.338	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.245	0.332	0.345	OK
Javier Sanoja	3B	121	412	120	0.291	8	60	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.276	0.311	0.422	OK
Joe Mack	C	93	281	66	0.235	13	45	0.283	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.247	0.283	0.416	OK
Agustín Ramírez	DH	58	187	42	0.225	4	21	0.311	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	0.667	0.142	0.226	0.303	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	5	5	2	10	0.229

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Lars Nootbaar	LF	28	83	20	0.241	2	8	0.351	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.254	0.353	0.368	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	128	512	128	0.250	22	73	0.316	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.243	0.305	0.398	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	119	432	130	0.301	13	73	0.377	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.280	0.340	0.455	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	144	516	130	0.252	9	49	0.357	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.281	0.371	0.366	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	143	532	128	0.241	20	64	0.333	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.223	0.293	0.442	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	139	483	116	0.240	25	73	0.320	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.280	0.360	0.610	OK
Tim Tawa	1B	84	271	67	0.247	10	38	0.301	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.272	0.325	0.459	OK
Pavin Smith	DH	17	46	8	0.174	1	5	0.264	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.195	0.277	0.280	OK
Jordan Lawlar	CF	32	97	25	0.258	4	11	0.327	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.265	0.297	0.408	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	7	4	4	2	7	0.206

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sandy Alcantara	Starter	31	197.9	3.82	1.228	6.5	143	6.0	7	4	4	2	5	111	6.0	5	4
Calvin Faucher	Closer	63	54.4	4.14	1.526	11.1	67	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	40	29.6	5.78	1.689	11.9	39	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	59	52.8	3.58	1.231	11.8	69	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Corbin Burnes	Starter	1	3.0	0.00	1.333	6.0	2	3.0	5	3	3	0	9	61	3.0	9	3
Brandyn Garcia	Closer	36	26.8	2.01	0.784	12.1	36	2.1	0	0	0	2	0	37	2.1	0	0
Juan Morillo	Setup Man	48	40.4	2.90	1.114	12.3	55	2.0	2	1	1	0	0	31	2.0	0	1
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	40.8	3.09	1.225	7.1	32	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	24	1.2	1	1

Game Summary

MIA wins 5-4

New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins

NYY 86-63 (4.54 RPG / 3.7 RA)

6 - 4

MIN 70-79 (4.58 RPG / 5.0 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 6-4 TARGET: NYY 6 - 4 MIN (NYY) Confidence: 57.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	3	0	6	10
MIN	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	4	3

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff13

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.1

Avg Allowed6.0

Run Diff-29

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

NYY Season Quality

Record86-63

Win%0.577

Run Diff125

RD/Game0.839

MIN Season Quality

Record70-79

Win%0.470

Run Diff-62

RD/Game-0.416

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.2593; margin adjustment: -0.5289; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ben Rice	DH	138	517	136	0.263	37	86	0.361	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.287	0.374	0.592	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	119	445	120	0.270	15	69	0.345	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.288	0.348	0.534	OK
Aaron Judge	RF	64	231	56	0.242	17	38	0.365	5	3	1	1	1	2	0	0.333	0.238	0.344	0.417	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	33	123	38	0.309	7	15	0.344	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.305	0.332	0.561	OK
Spencer Jones	CF	72	216	57	0.264	9	34	0.336	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.321	0.384	0.479	OK
George Lombard Jr.	SS	30	103	23	0.223	3	11	0.287	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.205	0.270	0.334	OK
Ryan McMahon	3B	104	299	64	0.214	10	34	0.278	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.207	0.270	0.332	OK
Austin Wells	C	111	312	56	0.179	11	29	0.277	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.160	0.273	0.321	OK
José Caballero	2B	116	382	88	0.230	13	47	0.287	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.223	0.281	0.346	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	37	10	6	6	2	8	0.270

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Luke Keaschall	RF	139	483	132	0.273	9	44	0.364	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.253	0.321	0.352	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	140	535	132	0.247	23	78	0.294	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.218	0.253	0.357	OK
Kody Clemens	2B	131	485	118	0.243	26	76	0.305	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.241	0.295	0.458	OK
Ryan Jeffers	C	80	286	76	0.266	14	54	0.361	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.226	0.306	0.423	OK
Josh Bell	DH	142	521	132	0.253	19	86	0.318	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.210	0.280	0.381	OK
Emmanuel Rodriguez	LF	2	8	2	0.250	1	1	0.250	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.239	0.248	0.565	OK
Victor Caratini	1B	96	301	66	0.219	7	40	0.310	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.200	0.274	0.284	OK
Ryan Kreidler	SS	80	221	48	0.217	6	26	0.270	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.165	0.221	0.309	OK
Walker Jenkins	CF	13	41	4	0.098	1	5	0.229	3	2	1	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.140	0.240	0.258	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	30	3	4	4	3	6	0.100

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Will Warren	Starter	29	137.2	4.20	1.414	9.2	141	5.1	2	3	3	2	4	93	5.1	4	3
David Bednar	Closer	60	59.9	2.85	1.102	10.8	72	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	76	60.1	2.40	1.464	13.8	92	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	22	1.0	1	0
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	58	71.8	1.88	1.198	8.3	66	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Tim Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	62	44.6	5.25	1.323	5.0	25	0.2	1	1	1	1	1	15	0.2	1	1

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Dean Kremer	Starter	7	35.2	4.86	1.250	7.9	31	4.2	6	3	3	1	5	93	4.2	5	3
Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	50	39.3	3.44	1.450	10.1	44	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	15	11.8	3.05	1.441	16.0	21	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	18	14.3	1.89	1.119	10.1	16	1.1	4	3	3	1	1	37	1.1	1	3
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	57	59.4	4.55	1.532	9.2	61	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 6-4

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

SD 81-68 (4.29 RPG / 4.14 RA)

8 - 5

COL 55-94 (4.67 RPG / 5.81 RA)

WINNER: SD wins 8-5 TARGET: SD 8 - 5 COL (SD) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	1	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	3	8	11
COL	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	5	9

SD Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak7W

COL Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed7.5

Run Diff-28

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak7L

SD Season Quality

Record81-68

Win%0.544

Run Diff22

RD/Game0.148

COL Season Quality

Record55-94

Win%0.369

Run Diff-169

RD/Game-1.134

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.366; margin adjustment: -0.5737; applied: True

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	145	577	167	0.289	21	74	0.357	5	5	3	1	1	0	0	0.600	0.363	0.422	0.547	OK
Dustin Harris	LF	12	39	13	0.333	0	6	0.341	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.291	0.337	0.399	OK
Manny Machado	3B	145	538	119	0.221	27	82	0.311	5	5	2	1	3	0	1	0.400	0.235	0.328	0.457	OK
Ty France	1B	114	388	114	0.294	20	63	0.361	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.315	0.371	0.491	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	145	565	140	0.248	25	82	0.298	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.278	0.316	0.536	OK
Luis Campusano	DH	63	189	52	0.275	7	28	0.372	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.282	0.363	0.451	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	142	486	108	0.222	11	54	0.321	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.253	0.340	0.338	OK
Jake Cronenworth	2B	95	330	69	0.209	5	28	0.293	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.204	0.272	0.282	OK
Freddy Fermin	C	74	220	43	0.195	4	19	0.266	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.132	0.208	0.228	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	38	11	8	8	2	9	0.289

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	LF	128	495	146	0.295	15	77	0.338	5	5	1	1	2	0	2	0.200	0.275	0.306	0.420	OK
Connor Norby	2B	29	94	27	0.287	3	12	0.380	5	5	2	1	0	0	3	0.400	0.253	0.326	0.406	OK
Hunter Goodman	C	128	479	116	0.242	38	81	0.309	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.191	0.242	0.436	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	141	504	151	0.300	15	66	0.391	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.291	0.376	0.433	OK
Cole Carrigg	CF	77	279	72	0.258	7	39	0.330	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.241	0.303	0.405	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	115	361	94	0.260	11	45	0.356	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.215	0.287	0.396	OK
Mickey Moniak	RF	104	370	90	0.243	22	64	0.279	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.221	0.252	0.446	OK
Adael Amador	DH	15	46	15	0.326	4	12	0.404	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.301	0.363	0.601	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	131	427	92	0.215	11	42	0.262	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.201	0.249	0.346	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	36	9	5	5	1	11	0.250

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Casey Mize	Starter	7	31.5	6.57	1.460	6.3	22	5.0	3	3	3	0	4	82	5.0	4	3
Mason Miller	Closer	60	60.3	1.19	0.896	17.5	117	1.0	3	1	1	1	2	26	1.0	2	1
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	70	71.8	3.13	1.184	12.5	100	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	61	57.7	2.03	1.127	11.5	74	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Yuki Matsui	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	51.3	2.28	1.287	11.1	63	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tomoyuki Sugano	Starter	26	134.4	5.42	1.376	5.6	84	4.2	6	4	4	1	5	93	4.2	5	3
Jordan Romano	Closer	22	19.5	3.69	1.282	8.8	19	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13	1.0	3	0
Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	68	48.6	2.96	1.358	8.0	43	1.1	1	1	1	1	0	31	1.1	0	1
Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	47	41.7	6.91	1.751	9.3	43	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	41	28.2	5.74	1.879	11.8	37	1.0	3	3	3	0	0	22	1.0	0	3

Game Summary

SD wins 8-5

Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels

SEA 70-80 (4.08 RPG / 4.47 RA)

5 - 6

LAA 56-93 (4.05 RPG / 4.56 RA)

WINNER: LAA wins 6-5 TARGET: SEA 5 - 6 LAA (LAA) Confidence: 52.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	5	9
LAA	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	x	6	8

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.7

Avg Allowed5.0

Run Diff7

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak3L

SEA Season Quality

Record70-80

Win%0.467

Run Diff-58

RD/Game-0.387

LAA Season Quality

Record56-93

Win%0.376

Run Diff-76

RD/Game-0.510

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2584; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
J.P. Crawford	SS	104	367	82	0.223	11	36	0.344	5	4	2	1	2	1	0	0.500	0.231	0.330	0.355	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	142	529	146	0.276	25	75	0.373	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.276	0.337	0.561	OK
Dominic Canzone	RF	132	432	111	0.257	22	68	0.323	5	3	1	1	1	1	2	0.333	0.259	0.310	0.480	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	114	411	74	0.180	21	60	0.293	5	5	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.187	0.285	0.320	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	138	553	134	0.242	21	65	0.301	5	5	3	1	2	0	1	0.600	0.246	0.291	0.391	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	140	549	149	0.271	10	50	0.328	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.297	0.340	0.369	OK
Michael Arroyo	DH	4	9	3	0.333	1	3	0.500	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.315	0.499	0.700	OK
Cole Young	2B	148	540	135	0.250	17	65	0.312	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.174	0.222	0.303	OK
Weston Wilson	3B	39	106	23	0.217	3	10	0.284	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.276	0.339	0.373	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	36	9	5	5	4	11	0.250

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	144	575	138	0.240	26	73	0.320	4	3	2	1	0	0	0	0.667	0.242	0.295	0.496	OK
Mike Trout	DH	130	472	115	0.244	21	52	0.379	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.245	0.370	0.444	OK
Jose Siri	CF	77	193	43	0.223	8	26	0.274	4	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.217	0.262	0.391	OK
Vaughn Grissom	1B	103	376	90	0.239	11	61	0.300	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.224	0.277	0.375	OK
Christian Moore	2B	26	95	17	0.179	1	10	0.240	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.176	0.227	0.257	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	67	235	52	0.221	7	26	0.265	4	3	0	1	1	1	1	0.000	0.207	0.248	0.344	OK
Travis d'Arnaud	C	27	65	12	0.185	1	3	0.264	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.206	0.260	0.327	OK
Kyren Paris	LF	5	13	0	0.000	0	0	0.133	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.050	0.163	0.083
Wade Meckler	RF	79	249	73	0.293	3	26	0.367	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.279	0.363	0.374	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	8	6	6	2	8	0.250

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kade Anderson	Starter	4	20.3	4.43	1.429	7.1	16	5.0	5	1	1	0	5	90	5.0	5	1
Andrés Muñoz	Closer	57	51.5	4.19	1.223	15.0	86	2.1	0	0	0	0	2	36	2.1	2	0
José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	66	51.6	4.36	1.647	8.4	48	0.2	3	5	5	2	1	25	0.2	1	5

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Reid Detmers	Starter	29	164.5	3.39	1.058	10.4	191	6.1	4	2	2	2	7	112	6.1	7	2
Ben Joyce	Closer	13	11.4	3.95	1.140	11.8	15	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.0	1	0
Ryan Watson	Setup Man	14	9.9	2.73	1.313	13.6	15	1.0	1	1	1	1	2	20	1.0	2	1
Tayler Saucedo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	22	13.0	4.15	1.462	13.8	20	0.2	3	2	2	1	1	21	0.2	1	2

Game Summary

LAA wins 6-5

San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals

SF 63-88 (4.23 RPG / 4.71 RA)

4 - 5

STL 74-76 (4.55 RPG / 4.6 RA)

WINNER: STL wins 5-4 TARGET: SF 4 - 5 STL (STL) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
SF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	4	10
STL	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	1	5	11

SF Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed5.5

Run Diff-7

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak3L

STL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.2

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff1

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

SF Season Quality

Record62-88

Win%0.413

Run Diff-77

RD/Game-0.513

STL Season Quality

Record74-76

Win%0.493

Run Diff-7

RD/Game-0.047

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4205; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jonah Cox	CF	39	106	30	0.283	4	11	0.321	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.267	0.303	0.385	OK
Bryce Eldridge	1B	103	371	100	0.270	16	54	0.358	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.275	0.359	0.462	OK
Shay Whitcomb	2B	16	57	12	0.211	2	6	0.211	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.204	0.210	0.386	OK
Turner Hill	DH	23	72	17	0.236	0	12	0.333	5	4	2	1	2	1	0	0.500	0.218	0.309	0.305	OK
Brett Harris	3B	2	3	0	0.000	0	0	0.250	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.120	0.202	0.186
Scott Bandura	RF	1	3	1	0.333	0	0	0.500	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.313	0.463	0.345	OK
Andrew Knizner	C	17	45	8	0.178	2	3	0.245	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.215	0.263	0.419	OK
Grant McCray	LF	24	64	9	0.141	2	3	0.247	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.160	0.256	0.309	OK
Christian Koss	SS	53	159	38	0.239	4	10	0.284	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.273	0.319	0.411	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	40	10	4	4	2	5	0.250

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Thomas Saggese	2B	40	123	32	0.260	4	12	0.316	6	5	1	1	0	1	1	0.200	0.259	0.319	0.400	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	146	556	134	0.241	15	62	0.351	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.211	0.284	0.330	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	145	554	156	0.282	22	106	0.347	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.280	0.361	0.461	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	143	553	155	0.280	26	95	0.337	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.236	0.286	0.383	OK
Leonardo Bernal	C	12	48	14	0.292	3	13	0.346	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.238	0.288	0.417	OK
Joshua Baez	LF	26	88	23	0.261	7	18	0.305	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.270	0.300	0.560	OK
Nolan Gorman	3B	77	247	47	0.190	9	32	0.267	5	3	2	1	1	2	1	0.667	0.202	0.279	0.324	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	121	439	104	0.237	5	54	0.308	5	5	2	1	3	0	1	0.400	0.230	0.291	0.324	OK
Nathan Church	CF	117	390	100	0.256	10	49	0.301	5	4	1	1	1	1	2	0.250	0.310	0.358	0.409	OK
TEAM TOTALS									46	41	11	5	5	5	8	0.268

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Landen Roupp	Starter	28	146.0	4.13	1.322	8.6	139	5.1	4	1	1	3	3	103	5.1	3	1
Dylan Smith	Closer	36	30.6	3.53	1.569	12.1	41	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	22	1.0	1	1
Trent Harris	Setup Man	15	16.3	2.76	1.227	12.1	22	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	29	1.1	1	0
Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	18	22.2	6.08	1.892	7.7	19	1.0	3	1	1	0	2	22	0.0	2	1
Jason Foley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	19	18.0	4.50	1.778	6.0	12	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	0.1	0	0
Joel Kuhnel	Reliever	4	3.2	5.62	2.188	2.8	1	0.1	2	2	2	1	1	14	0.0	1	2

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Quinn Mathews	Starter	6	30.2	4.17	1.523	8.3	28	5.0	5	2	2	0	4	78	5.0	4	2
Riley O'Brien	Closer	62	57.2	4.41	1.329	9.4	60	2.1	0	0	0	1	1	27	2.1	1	0
George Soriano	Setup Man	68	55.6	5.02	1.637	10.2	63	0.2	2	2	2	1	0	18	0.0	0	2
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	65	50.6	4.80	1.542	11.0	62	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	19	0.2	0	0
Justin Bruihl	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	66	61.0	4.28	1.590	7.7	52	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

STL wins 5-4

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs

ATL Recent Form

CHC Recent Form

ATL Season Quality

CHC Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets

BAL Recent Form

NYM Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

NYM Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

CHW Recent Form

CLE Recent Form

CHW Season Quality

CLE Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays

DET Recent Form

TOR Recent Form

DET Season Quality

TOR Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds

LAD Recent Form

CIN Recent Form

LAD Season Quality

CIN Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks

MIA Recent Form

ARI Recent Form

MIA Season Quality

ARI Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins

NYY Recent Form

MIN Recent Form

NYY Season Quality

MIN Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies