MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

September 13, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
BAL @ TOR2 - 42 - 4TORTORTOR wins 4-253%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHW @ STL5 - 65 - 6STLSTLSTL wins 6-551%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CIN @ MIL4 - 84 - 8MILMILMIL wins 8-454%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ MIN4 - 54 - 5MINMINMIN wins 5-455%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
COL @ DET4 - 74 - 7DETDETDET wins 7-465%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ TB3 - 43 - 4TBTBTB wins 4-352%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
KC @ BOS2 - 42 - 4BOSBOSBOS wins 4-256%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAA @ WAS5 - 65 - 6WASWASWAS wins 6-557%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ MIA8 - 58 - 5LADLADLAD wins 8-560%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ NYY5 - 65 - 6NYYNYYNYY wins 6-556%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PHI @ ATL4 - 54 - 5ATLATLATL wins 5-454%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ CHC3 - 43 - 4CHCCHCCHC wins 4-352%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ SF6 - 46 - 4SDSDSD wins 6-454%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SEA @ OAK6 - 56 - 5SEASEASEA wins 6-556%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TEX @ ARI4 - 34 - 3TEXTEXTEX wins 4-351%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays

BAL 72-78 (4.48 RPG / 4.71 RA)
2 - 4
TOR 75-75 (4.05 RPG / 4.26 RA)
WINNER: TOR wins 4-2 TARGET: BAL 2 - 4 TOR (TOR) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
BAL10000100028
TOR01000300x45

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff-7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

BAL Season Quality

Record72-76
Win%0.486
Run Diff-24
RD/Game-0.162

TOR Season Quality

Record73-75
Win%0.493
Run Diff-42
RD/Game-0.284

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0675; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson Holliday2B 9130268 0.225 7300.292 55200 02 0.400 0.211 0.263 0.315 OK
Pete Alonso1B 146545146 0.268 35990.363 55211 00 0.400 0.241 0.329 0.438 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 143570126 0.221 21560.305 44100 00 0.250 0.230 0.304 0.354 OK
Coby MayoDH 11336382 0.226 23600.290 43000 01 0.000 0.230 0.287 0.523 OK
Samuel BasalloC 10233877 0.228 17510.295 43000 01 0.000 0.218 0.278 0.358 OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B 4515238 0.250 7300.303 43100 10 0.333 0.258 0.296 0.425 OK
Dylan BeaversLF 8827868 0.245 7380.313 44100 01 0.250 0.249 0.303 0.432 OK
Colton CowserCF 11530366 0.218 12360.304 44000 00 0.000 0.204 0.292 0.349 OK
Leody TaverasRF 12340087 0.218 8540.286 44111 00 0.250 0.212 0.275 0.336 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38358 22 15 0.229

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brett BatemanCF 3012241 0.336 2100.401 44000 02 0.000 0.326 0.370 0.442 OK
George SpringerDH 112424106 0.250 14470.323 43000 11 0.000 0.230 0.290 0.348 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 133505131 0.259 8550.327 44110 01 0.250 0.259 0.320 0.342 OK
Alejandro KirkC 6824668 0.276 10390.344 43110 10 0.333 0.260 0.327 0.384 OK
Nathan LukesRF 110373102 0.273 10360.321 33113 00 0.333 0.294 0.324 0.378 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 142523123 0.235 31840.310 33111 01 0.333 0.254 0.315 0.569 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 131437107 0.245 9550.291 33000 00 0.000 0.229 0.259 0.355 OK
Ernie Clement2B 144546149 0.273 9460.300 33000 00 0.000 0.248 0.279 0.337 OK
Myles StrawLF 11126362 0.236 3230.293 33100 00 0.333 0.254 0.318 0.353 OK
TEAM TOTALS 31295 44 25 0.172

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Trevor RogersStarter 27147.74.27 1.2468.4138 6.054423102 6.0 3 4
Andrew KittredgeCloser 5241.04.17 1.5618.338 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Rico GarciaSetup Man 6953.82.84 1.04110.965 1.00000113 1.0 1 0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dylan CeaseStarter 27158.32.44 1.06112.9227 6.05111595 6.0 5 1
Louis VarlandCloser 6768.21.32 1.07012.091 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Tyler RogersSetup Man 6962.01.89 1.2425.437 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Spencer MilesMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4682.92.93 1.1469.386 1.03110020 1.0 0 1

Game Summary

TOR wins 4-2


Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals

CHW 76-73 (4.66 RPG / 4.44 RA)
5 - 6
STL 74-76 (4.55 RPG / 4.6 RA)
WINNER: STL wins 6-5 TARGET: CHW 5 - 6 STL (STL) Confidence: 50.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CHW00020002159
STL30300000x65

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.4
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-9
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

STL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.7
Avg Allowed5.6
Run Diff1
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

CHW Season Quality

Record76-72
Win%0.514
Run Diff36
RD/Game0.243

STL Season Quality

Record73-76
Win%0.490
Run Diff-9
RD/Game-0.060

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1112; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 127439118 0.269 8440.367 55210 02 0.400 0.274 0.332 0.383 OK
Kyle TeelC 278317 0.205 4180.290 55000 02 0.000 0.230 0.304 0.414 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 145543134 0.247 30790.355 52110 30 0.500 0.215 0.296 0.374 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 11340584 0.207 31650.346 54110 10 0.250 0.197 0.318 0.446 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 13139495 0.241 14700.303 55314 01 0.600 0.197 0.262 0.357 OK
Tristan PetersRF 136405113 0.279 12540.342 53111 21 0.333 0.270 0.322 0.435 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 141523140 0.268 14530.344 55100 01 0.200 0.244 0.321 0.436 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 140526109 0.207 31840.291 43000 11 0.000 0.146 0.227 0.333 OK
Brenton DoyleCF 215411 0.204 270.204 44000 00 0.000 0.115 0.165 0.191 OK
TEAM TOTALS 43369 55 78 0.250

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Bryan TorresLF 5613836 0.261 3170.329 43110 11 0.333 0.272 0.346 0.363 OK
Iván HerreraC 145552134 0.243 15620.353 44112 01 0.250 0.237 0.320 0.357 OK
Alec Burleson1B 144551155 0.281 221030.347 43000 11 0.000 0.254 0.334 0.438 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 142550155 0.282 26950.338 43110 10 0.333 0.163 0.224 0.291 OK
Leonardo BernalDH 114514 0.311 3130.367 44011 01 0.000 0.304 0.358 0.542 OK
Nolan Gorman3B 7624547 0.192 9320.269 43000 11 0.000 0.205 0.280 0.348 OK
Thomas Saggese2B 3912032 0.267 4120.323 33113 01 0.333 0.271 0.331 0.420 OK
Nathan ChurchCF 11638798 0.253 10490.298 33110 00 0.333 0.301 0.349 0.404 OK
Masyn WinnSS 120436103 0.236 5540.308 33000 01 0.000 0.217 0.281 0.308 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33295 66 47 0.172

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
David SandlinStarter 210.08.10 1.3007.28 4.05663479 4.0 4 6
Grant TaylorCloser 4151.92.60 1.11813.276 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Sean NewcombSetup Man 5272.53.10 1.2699.274 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6052.82.90 1.3079.455 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Hagen SmithMiddle Reliever 914.60.00 0.95914.223 0.1000014 0.1 1 0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael McGreevyStarter 28150.54.01 1.2826.3106 5.22223795 5.2 7 2
Riley O'BrienCloser 6257.24.41 1.3299.460 1.22001131 1.2 1 0
George SorianoSetup Man 6754.65.11 1.61210.463 0.22222022 0.2 0 2
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6550.64.80 1.54211.062 1.03111026 1.0 0 1

Game Summary

STL wins 6-5


Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers

CIN 70-79 (4.19 RPG / 5.16 RA)
4 - 8
MIL 93-57 (5.19 RPG / 3.89 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 8-4 TARGET: CIN 4 - 8 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CIN00000102144
MIL03010310x88

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed8.3
Run Diff-33
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak5L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs8.0
Avg Allowed5.2
Run Diff28
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak5W

CIN Season Quality

Record69-79
Win%0.466
Run Diff-146
RD/Game-0.986

MIL Season Quality

Record93-56
Win%0.624
Run Diff196
RD/Game1.315

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.0534; margin adjustment: 3.2854; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Dane MyersCF 9225366 0.261 5220.346 43010 11 0.000 0.256 0.317 0.346 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 126496142 0.286 26710.366 44000 00 0.000 0.302 0.366 0.587 OK
Sal Stewart1B 145556149 0.268 301040.338 44000 02 0.000 0.256 0.321 0.384 OK
Eugenio Suárez3B 11239084 0.215 23650.310 43000 11 0.000 0.214 0.315 0.450 OK
Tyler StephensonDH 11537293 0.250 15520.331 44111 02 0.250 0.234 0.320 0.392 OK
JJ BledayLF 11641591 0.219 22560.327 44000 01 0.000 0.195 0.289 0.343 OK
Juan Brito2B 6197 0.368 280.409 33110 01 0.333 0.233 0.293 0.405 OK
Jose TrevinoC 4213530 0.222 5170.226 33000 00 0.000 0.128 0.137 0.204 OK
Héctor RodríguezRF 3010626 0.245 5120.298 33213 01 0.667 0.230 0.273 0.378 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33314 44 29 0.129

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Garrett MitchellCF 125413109 0.264 10580.348 43112 10 0.333 0.343 0.393 0.575 OK
Jackson ChourioLF 112469140 0.299 23670.356 43111 00 0.333 0.354 0.403 0.588 OK
Brice Turang2B 135525142 0.270 19930.365 44111 02 0.250 0.334 0.423 0.610 OK
Gary SánchezC 7720543 0.210 11350.353 44111 01 0.250 0.230 0.384 0.417 OK
Jake Bauers1B 127429115 0.268 24800.390 43211 10 0.667 0.267 0.401 0.508 OK
Christian YelichDH 10439292 0.235 11520.315 44112 02 0.250 0.258 0.322 0.412 OK
Joey Ortiz3B 10632685 0.261 8410.320 44010 01 0.000 0.297 0.350 0.423 OK
Luis LaraRF 4515240 0.263 1220.327 44000 03 0.000 0.271 0.329 0.352 OK
Cooper PrattSS 5918951 0.270 3290.335 33110 01 0.333 0.288 0.353 0.377 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35328 88 210 0.250

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chase BurnsStarter 27146.02.77 1.15810.8176 6.03330994 6.0 9 3
Emilio PagánCloser 3936.53.95 1.0689.438 2.05552148 2.0 1 4

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Robert GasserStarter 1887.64.62 1.3368.987 5.01112876 5.0 8 1
Trevor MegillCloser 5654.51.98 0.88110.463 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Abner UribeSetup Man 5548.92.21 1.10410.155 1.02220019 1.0 0 2
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 7074.13.52 1.51113.2109 1.21110024 1.2 0 1

Game Summary

MIL wins 8-4


Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins

CLE 76-74 (4.1 RPG / 4.15 RA)
4 - 5
MIN 70-79 (4.58 RPG / 5.0 RA)
WINNER: MIN wins 5-4 TARGET: CLE 4 - 5 MIN (MIN) Confidence: 54.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CLE10000210048
MIN00020300x59

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff-9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

CLE Season Quality

Record75-74
Win%0.503
Run Diff-14
RD/Game-0.094

MIN Season Quality

Record70-78
Win%0.473
Run Diff-55
RD/Game-0.372

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2563; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanCF 133483133 0.275 2280.370 53311 10 1.000 0.281 0.364 0.345 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 118444129 0.291 14610.361 55000 02 0.000 0.246 0.313 0.417 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 10839295 0.242 11490.336 55112 01 0.200 0.274 0.359 0.431 OK
Jo AdellDH 3412629 0.230 4230.315 44000 00 0.000 0.233 0.271 0.371 OK
Nathaniel Lowe1B 3110322 0.214 5210.274 43000 12 0.000 0.158 0.243 0.359 OK
Angel MartínezLF 9735187 0.248 15520.286 44100 01 0.250 0.244 0.271 0.438 OK
Angel Genao3B 2810224 0.235 260.284 44211 00 0.500 0.147 0.192 0.240 OK
Patrick BaileyC 6318646 0.247 7290.312 44000 02 0.000 0.171 0.240 0.270 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 138484119 0.246 11590.304 43110 10 0.333 0.231 0.276 0.334 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39358 44 38 0.229

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Luke KeaschallRF 138479130 0.271 9440.363 43211 10 0.667 0.256 0.332 0.360 OK
Brooks Lee3B 139531132 0.249 23780.296 44000 00 0.000 0.245 0.284 0.385 OK
Kody Clemens2B 130482117 0.243 26750.303 44100 00 0.250 0.241 0.293 0.462 OK
Ryan JeffersC 7928276 0.270 14540.365 43111 11 0.333 0.250 0.330 0.478 OK
Trevor LarnachDH 118380101 0.266 12460.344 43000 10 0.000 0.266 0.334 0.428 OK
Royce Lewis1B 11341596 0.231 14530.298 44111 01 0.250 0.219 0.281 0.368 OK
Emmanuel RodriguezLF 141 0.250 110.250 44111 02 0.250 0.247 0.255 0.894 OK
Walker JenkinsCF 12374 0.108 150.250 44111 01 0.250 0.139 0.248 0.266 OK
Ryan KreidlerSS 7921848 0.220 6260.274 44200 01 0.500 0.123 0.187 0.252 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36339 55 36 0.273

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tanner BibeeStarter 30167.44.30 1.2197.2133 5.195535106 5.1 5 5
Cade SmithCloser 6262.52.30 1.10413.795 1.20000016 1.2 0 0
Hunter GaddisSetup Man 5944.63.03 1.34510.150 1.00000113 1.0 1 0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Joe RyanStarter 24128.53.71 1.14410.2145 5.13330388 5.1 3 3
Yoendrys GómezCloser 5039.33.44 1.45010.144 1.22112138 1.2 1 1
Jeff HoffmanSetup Man 1511.83.05 1.44116.021 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
A.J. MinterMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1814.31.89 1.11910.116 1.03000322 1.0 3 0

Game Summary

MIN wins 5-4


Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers

COL 55-94 (4.67 RPG / 5.81 RA)
4 - 7
DET 70-79 (4.47 RPG / 4.0 RA)
WINNER: DET wins 7-4 TARGET: COL 4 - 7 DET (DET) Confidence: 64.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
COL01000003047
DET00700000x76

COL Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed6.0
Run Diff-16
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak5L

DET Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

COL Season Quality

Record55-92
Win%0.374
Run Diff-158
RD/Game-1.075

DET Season Quality

Record68-79
Win%0.463
Run Diff59
RD/Game0.401

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.2081; margin adjustment: 0.5074; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyLF 127493146 0.296 15770.338 54000 11 0.000 0.302 0.329 0.459 OK
Connor Norby2B 299427 0.287 3120.380 55000 01 0.000 0.226 0.307 0.383 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 128479116 0.242 38810.309 43110 10 0.333 0.189 0.237 0.403 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 140501150 0.299 15660.390 43110 10 0.333 0.268 0.353 0.418 OK
Cole CarriggCF 7627572 0.262 7390.334 44214 01 0.500 0.257 0.320 0.427 OK
Kyle Karros3B 11536194 0.260 11450.356 44110 03 0.250 0.213 0.291 0.396 OK
Jordan BeckRF 5214629 0.199 1110.258 44100 00 0.250 0.189 0.248 0.278 OK
Adael AmadorDH 144214 0.333 3110.417 44100 00 0.250 0.310 0.380 0.562 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 13142792 0.215 11420.262 43000 12 0.000 0.200 0.248 0.287 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 44 48 0.206

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigle3B 141543148 0.273 17630.373 44113 00 0.250 0.270 0.367 0.447 OK
Hao-Yu Lee2B 9427172 0.266 8400.323 43010 10 0.000 0.223 0.313 0.363 OK
Colt KeithDH 13137194 0.253 10350.308 43112 11 0.333 0.243 0.286 0.398 OK
Riley GreeneLF 125459130 0.283 19680.371 43112 01 0.333 0.335 0.409 0.571 OK
Eduardo ValenciaC 319731 0.320 6180.340 44000 02 0.000 0.256 0.266 0.464 OK
Max ClarkCF 3712833 0.258 3160.340 44210 01 0.500 0.245 0.316 0.446 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 143481104 0.216 21650.310 44000 02 0.000 0.135 0.225 0.273 OK
Brett CallahanRF 194711 0.234 170.288 33110 00 0.333 0.225 0.259 0.375 OK
John PeckSS 9317 0.226 050.342 32010 10 0.000 0.220 0.321 0.310 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34306 77 37 0.200

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Gabriel HughesStarter 1256.45.90 1.4017.748 4.16772589 4.1 5 6
Jordan RomanoCloser 2219.53.69 1.2828.819 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Brennan BernardinoSetup Man 6848.62.96 1.3588.043 0.20001012 0.2 0 0
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4639.77.25 1.7889.542 0.1000004 0.1 0 0
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4027.25.96 1.91211.936 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 5954.56.28 2.0009.457 0.2000018 0.2 1 0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jackson JobeStarter 627.44.60 1.4608.526 4.24112588 4.2 5 1
Kenley JansenCloser 4537.53.36 1.17311.347 1.02000019 1.0 0 0
Tyler HoltonSetup Man 6358.53.23 1.4538.555 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5851.43.68 1.6738.146 1.01332124 1.0 1 3
Drew SommersMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 3826.63.72 1.50417.953 1.00000213 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

DET wins 7-4


Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays

HOU 75-75 (4.46 RPG / 4.81 RA)
3 - 4
TB 90-59 (4.58 RPG / 4.11 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 4-3 TARGET: HOU 3 - 4 TB (TB) Confidence: 52.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
HOU10000110035
TB02001100x45

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-2
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

HOU Season Quality

Record75-73
Win%0.507
Run Diff-42
RD/Game-0.284

TB Season Quality

Record88-59
Win%0.599
Run Diff58
RD/Game0.395

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6145; margin adjustment: 0.2581; applied: True

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 98394106 0.269 17470.322 44000 01 0.000 0.236 0.269 0.357 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 144518162 0.313 38960.430 43000 13 0.000 0.232 0.346 0.454 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 141512131 0.256 20830.356 43000 10 0.000 0.248 0.323 0.405 OK
Jose Altuve2B 121470116 0.247 15440.307 44212 00 0.500 0.235 0.281 0.364 OK
Christian Walker1B 142525119 0.227 25800.300 44000 01 0.000 0.216 0.275 0.381 OK
Nelson VelázquezLF 9202 0.100 140.143 43000 11 0.000 0.188 0.243 0.385 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 3413124 0.183 4130.241 43110 10 0.333 0.219 0.270 0.357 OK
Cam SmithRF 136469102 0.217 20530.282 44211 01 0.500 0.241 0.301 0.497 OK
Yainer DiazC 7929081 0.279 11360.308 44000 00 0.000 0.291 0.319 0.436 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36325 33 47 0.156

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 142565171 0.303 22800.368 43000 11 0.000 0.288 0.336 0.449 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 143539150 0.278 19860.361 44211 01 0.500 0.263 0.330 0.412 OK
Junior Caminero3B 147562157 0.279 40950.365 44000 04 0.000 0.265 0.346 0.546 OK
Liam HicksC 319428 0.298 4170.385 44000 01 0.000 0.254 0.320 0.398 OK
Chandler SimpsonLF 136527161 0.306 0310.333 43111 10 0.333 0.279 0.312 0.323 OK
Victor Mesa Jr.RF 6019448 0.247 13280.313 32111 11 0.500 0.286 0.345 0.576 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 12441584 0.202 14450.284 33000 02 0.000 0.178 0.251 0.267 OK
Richie Palacios2B 10831573 0.232 9470.328 33000 00 0.000 0.259 0.350 0.506 OK
Jorge MateoSS 18557 0.127 170.183 33111 00 0.333 0.174 0.214 0.272 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32295 44 310 0.172

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Hayden WesneskiStarter 845.23.38 1.0407.236 5.243338107 5.2 8 3
Josh HaderCloser 4140.40.67 0.59412.054 1.20000027 1.2 0 0
Bryan AbreuSetup Man 6052.54.29 1.48613.076 0.21110211 0.2 2 1

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Freddy PeraltaStarter 738.44.45 1.0426.829 5.21113598 5.2 5 1
Bryan BakerCloser 5956.71.43 0.8829.862 1.01110116 1.0 1 1
Kevin KellySetup Man 6557.52.97 1.0618.554 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Tyler WellsMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1417.31.56 0.7519.919 1.12001130 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

TB wins 4-3


Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox

KC 66-83 (4.25 RPG / 4.86 RA)
2 - 4
BOS 81-68 (4.42 RPG / 3.85 RA)
WINNER: BOS wins 4-2 TARGET: KC 2 - 4 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
KC00002000027
BOS00004000x45

KC Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

KC Season Quality

Record66-83
Win%0.443
Run Diff-91
RD/Game-0.611

BOS Season Quality

Record81-68
Win%0.544
Run Diff85
RD/Game0.570

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9625; margin adjustment: 0.4042; applied: True

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Loftin3B 10734480 0.233 7420.315 44200 00 0.500 0.198 0.263 0.316 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 129504141 0.280 18530.357 44000 00 0.000 0.250 0.326 0.428 OK
Jac CaglianoneDH 131472132 0.280 23700.327 44000 01 0.000 0.275 0.312 0.473 OK
Salvador Perez1B 138533124 0.233 19720.278 43000 10 0.000 0.244 0.281 0.390 OK
Michael Massey2B 116374105 0.281 11450.315 44000 01 0.000 0.270 0.307 0.390 OK
Matthew LugoRF 6112 0.182 000.250 44100 01 0.250 0.183 0.248 0.216 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 13141091 0.222 6400.325 44111 01 0.250 0.122 0.235 0.211 OK
Luke MaileC 13355 0.143 150.211 44000 01 0.000 0.137 0.204 0.229 OK
Tyler TolbertCF 4911735 0.299 380.366 33311 00 1.000 0.283 0.347 0.388 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35347 22 15 0.206

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Roman AnthonyLF 4316640 0.241 490.344 44113 01 0.250 0.255 0.333 0.413 OK
Jahmai JonesDH 223616 0.444 380.500 44311 00 0.750 0.143 0.205 0.300 OK
Adley RutschmanC 217515 0.200 4100.277 43010 10 0.000 0.249 0.314 0.438 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 142539140 0.260 23730.340 43000 12 0.000 0.257 0.336 0.460 OK
Trevor StorySS 5321450 0.234 3230.262 44000 01 0.000 0.232 0.255 0.331 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 135460111 0.241 12600.319 44110 00 0.250 0.247 0.314 0.354 OK
Nate EatonCF 13365 0.139 150.262 43000 10 0.000 0.157 0.251 0.296 OK
Andruw Monasterio2B 9429170 0.241 6380.299 32000 10 0.000 0.216 0.267 0.345 OK
Nick Sogard1B 5118749 0.262 4160.359 32000 11 0.000 0.266 0.351 0.405 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34295 44 55 0.172

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Noah CameronStarter 28158.03.99 1.2228.3145 6.034453110 6.0 3 4
Steven CruzCloser 5351.04.41 1.35310.459 0.21000011 0.2 0 0
Nate PearsonSetup Man 2020.30.44 0.8878.920 1.11000220 1.1 2 0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Payton TolleStarter 24134.23.22 1.10310.7159 6.05110591 6.0 5 1
Erik MillerSetup Man 1414.10.64 1.06416.025 1.22111027 1.2 0 1
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5048.31.86 0.82810.657 1.10000017 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

BOS wins 4-2


Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals

LAA 56-93 (4.05 RPG / 4.56 RA)
5 - 6
WAS 70-81 (5.11 RPG / 5.09 RA)
WINNER: WAS wins 6-5 TARGET: LAA 5 - 6 WAS (WAS) Confidence: 57.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
LAA10001300057
WAS000020031612

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed5.5
Run Diff-15
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

LAA Season Quality

Record56-91
Win%0.381
Run Diff-74
RD/Game-0.503

WAS Season Quality

Record68-81
Win%0.456
Run Diff1
RD/Game0.007

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2749; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 143571137 0.240 25720.319 55000 01 0.000 0.261 0.311 0.494 OK
Mike TroutCF 129470114 0.243 21520.376 54111 11 0.250 0.257 0.347 0.455 OK
Vaughn Grissom1B 10237290 0.242 11610.303 43110 10 0.333 0.232 0.288 0.366 OK
Moisés BallesterosDH 3312024 0.200 290.248 44311 01 0.750 0.248 0.301 0.394 OK
Christian Moore2B 259117 0.187 190.250 44000 00 0.000 0.230 0.275 0.335 OK
Jose SiriLF 7619043 0.226 8260.278 44111 01 0.250 0.216 0.255 0.385 OK
Denzer Guzman3B 6623152 0.225 7260.269 43000 13 0.000 0.218 0.256 0.353 OK
Travis d'ArnaudC 276512 0.185 130.264 44112 00 0.250 0.195 0.249 0.309 OK
Wade MecklerRF 7824773 0.296 3260.365 43000 10 0.000 0.294 0.363 0.390 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 55 47 0.206

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodDH 123470125 0.266 30750.393 54000 13 0.000 0.267 0.394 0.498 OK
Abimelec Ortiz1B 3611024 0.218 5130.259 55310 00 0.600 0.136 0.173 0.237 OK
Dylan CrewsRF 9536180 0.222 11390.290 54111 11 0.250 0.237 0.286 0.397 OK
CJ AbramsSS 141538141 0.262 30960.338 44212 01 0.500 0.238 0.300 0.416 OK
Brady House3B 8229270 0.240 10430.299 43000 13 0.000 0.251 0.310 0.391 OK
Daylen LileLF 148560139 0.248 20820.302 44110 01 0.250 0.159 0.210 0.318 OK
Keibert RuizC 9330889 0.289 10470.325 44211 00 0.500 0.189 0.228 0.358 OK
Jacob YoungCF 11939498 0.249 10440.308 44312 00 0.750 0.225 0.274 0.335 OK
Jorbit Vivas2B 10528268 0.241 3270.332 44000 00 0.000 0.248 0.339 0.355 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393612 66 39 0.333

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Grayson RodriguezStarter 1779.16.49 1.6188.575 4.27331692 4.2 6 3
Ben JoyceCloser 1311.43.95 1.14011.815 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Ryan WatsonSetup Man 149.92.73 1.31313.615 0.2000018 0.2 1 0
Tayler SaucedoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2112.04.50 1.50015.020 0.23111221 0.2 2 1
José FerminMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4944.03.68 1.52312.360 1.02221023 1.0 0 2

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Riley CornelioStarter 1323.85.67 1.72310.227 4.05223489 4.0 4 2
Clayton BeeterCloser 4943.14.59 1.4859.847 1.02331023 1.0 0 3
Erik TolmanSetup Man 88.43.21 1.4299.69 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Brad LordMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 3770.24.49 1.3969.171 1.20000227 1.2 2 0
Luis PeralesMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 47.011.57 2.28611.69 1.00000013 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

WAS wins 6-5


Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins

LAD 90-59 (4.97 RPG / 3.83 RA)
8 - 5
MIA 74-76 (4.44 RPG / 4.4 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 8-5 TARGET: LAD 8 - 5 MIA (LAD) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
LAD010031021810
MIA00001002255

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs6.4
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff20
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak8W

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs5.9
Avg Allowed6.8
Run Diff-9
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak4L

LAD Season Quality

Record90-57
Win%0.612
Run Diff173
RD/Game1.177

MIA Season Quality

Record72-76
Win%0.486
Run Diff3
RD/Game0.020

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.1782; margin adjustment: -0.4948; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Tommy EdmanCF 6724462 0.254 6320.333 54111 11 0.250 0.259 0.320 0.392 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 140525155 0.295 16640.374 55213 03 0.400 0.236 0.320 0.362 OK
Mookie BettsSS 108425106 0.249 20610.310 55110 01 0.200 0.259 0.320 0.469 OK
Max Muncy3B 134440112 0.255 28710.351 44211 01 0.500 0.323 0.404 0.543 OK
Will SmithC 6020148 0.239 7280.328 44110 00 0.250 0.244 0.327 0.419 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 110389103 0.265 13570.331 43112 11 0.333 0.319 0.382 0.493 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 136487111 0.228 14650.319 44110 01 0.250 0.268 0.347 0.532 OK
Josue De PaulaDH 250 0.000 000.375 44111 01 0.250 0.052 0.262 0.084
Alex Freeland2B 8121849 0.225 3200.308 44000 02 0.000 0.207 0.303 0.291 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393710 88 211 0.270

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle StowersDH 11140999 0.242 19600.332 43000 11 0.000 0.227 0.313 0.436 OK
Heriberto HernándezLF 11539689 0.225 24630.305 44110 00 0.250 0.199 0.265 0.395 OK
Griffin Conine1B 7723863 0.265 15360.357 44112 01 0.250 0.244 0.318 0.433 OK
Otto LopezSS 145578179 0.310 10670.350 44000 01 0.000 0.344 0.376 0.457 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 139475105 0.221 9360.339 44111 02 0.250 0.246 0.319 0.339 OK
Javier Sanoja2B 120408119 0.292 8580.327 44000 00 0.000 0.299 0.333 0.472 OK
Owen CaissieRF 10329164 0.220 14570.282 33000 01 0.000 0.145 0.212 0.296 OK
Graham Pauley3B 4813128 0.214 4250.262 33110 00 0.333 0.237 0.285 0.434 OK
Joe MackC 9227865 0.234 13450.283 33112 00 0.333 0.173 0.214 0.307 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33325 55 16 0.156

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Emmet SheehanStarter 2196.85.30 1.31211.0118 4.21221266 4.2 2 2
Tanner ScottCloser 6353.22.88 1.07112.272 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Edgardo HenriquezSetup Man 6051.42.98 1.12812.370 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Brock StewartMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2320.12.69 1.1449.020 1.02220219 1.0 2 2
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6541.33.70 1.45314.265 1.02110211 1.0 2 1

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Eury PérezStarter 26137.73.99 1.2569.8150 5.04442683 5.0 6 3
Calvin FaucherCloser 6354.44.14 1.52611.167 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
Tyler ZuberSetup Man 4029.65.78 1.68911.939 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5952.83.58 1.23111.869 1.02220119 1.0 1 2
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1413.66.62 1.5447.912 1.02110219 1.0 2 1

Game Summary

LAD wins 8-5


New York Mets @ New York Yankees

NYM 69-80 (4.32 RPG / 4.54 RA)
5 - 6
NYY 86-63 (4.54 RPG / 3.7 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 6-5 TARGET: NYM 5 - 6 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 56.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
NYM110000201510
NYY00012102x613

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs6.9
Avg Allowed5.8
Run Diff11
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff16
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak4W

NYM Season Quality

Record68-79
Win%0.463
Run Diff-42
RD/Game-0.286

NYY Season Quality

Record85-62
Win%0.578
Run Diff133
RD/Game0.905

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8824; margin adjustment: 0.3706; applied: True

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Francisco LindorSS 8935784 0.235 20470.314 54111 10 0.250 0.211 0.269 0.407 OK
Juan SotoDH 9534295 0.278 25600.393 55110 01 0.200 0.260 0.374 0.489 OK
Bo Bichette3B 142567150 0.265 16730.314 54000 11 0.000 0.250 0.305 0.379 OK
Carson BengeRF 138529143 0.270 17560.335 55210 01 0.400 0.247 0.319 0.364 OK
Jared Young1B 9229279 0.271 8350.331 44111 02 0.250 0.190 0.250 0.298 OK
Marcus Semien2B 12544299 0.224 14460.290 43000 12 0.000 0.235 0.300 0.332 OK
A.J. EwingCF 10538498 0.255 9370.326 44100 00 0.250 0.286 0.346 0.429 OK
Brett BatyLF 12138088 0.232 10500.296 44100 00 0.250 0.247 0.311 0.443 OK
Francisco AlvarezC 9832773 0.223 14350.309 44313 00 0.750 0.192 0.263 0.369 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403710 55 37 0.270

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Paul Goldschmidt1B 9232983 0.252 18490.306 54411 10 1.000 0.203 0.256 0.360 OK
Aaron JudgeDH 6322856 0.246 17380.369 54212 11 0.500 0.253 0.366 0.493 OK
Cody BellingerLF 118441120 0.272 15690.348 54111 11 0.250 0.308 0.370 0.540 OK
Heliot RamosRF 267311 0.151 270.287 55100 00 0.200 0.233 0.294 0.412 OK
Amed Rosario3B 7721050 0.238 10310.274 55111 02 0.200 0.191 0.232 0.290 OK
Spencer JonesCF 7121356 0.263 9340.336 43110 12 0.333 0.318 0.389 0.501 OK
George Lombard Jr.SS 3010323 0.223 3110.287 44211 00 0.500 0.212 0.268 0.352 OK
Anthony Volpe2B 5617944 0.246 2220.328 44100 01 0.250 0.252 0.324 0.363 OK
Austin WellsC 11030955 0.178 10280.277 44000 02 0.000 0.135 0.260 0.213 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413713 66 49 0.351

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Christian ScottStarter 2194.24.01 1.35911.5120 5.042244103 5.0 4 2
Kodai SengaCloser 2755.27.50 1.68511.168 0.23110217 0.2 2 1
Daniel DuarteSetup Man 2325.42.48 0.9069.928 1.11000131 1.1 1 0
Nathan LavenderMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1510.62.55 1.32114.417 1.05330228 1.0 2 3

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cam SchlittlerStarter 30174.72.06 0.93911.3220 6.161117111 6.1 7 1
David BednarCloser 5958.92.90 1.10410.871 1.03330022 1.0 0 3
Brent HeadrickSetup Man 7559.12.44 1.48913.991 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Paul BlackburnMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5770.81.91 1.2018.466 0.21111015 0.2 0 1

Game Summary

NYY wins 6-5


Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

PHI 83-67 (4.5 RPG / 4.29 RA)
4 - 5
ATL 88-63 (4.6 RPG / 3.87 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 5-4 TARGET: PHI 4 - 5 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 54.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
12345678910RH
PHI001020010044
ATL0000013001512

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

PHI Season Quality

Record82-66
Win%0.554
Run Diff36
RD/Game0.243

ATL Season Quality

Record87-61
Win%0.588
Run Diff111
RD/Game0.750

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3651; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 141535126 0.236 43910.346 55112 01 0.200 0.198 0.285 0.432 OK
Trea TurnerSS 141589142 0.241 19560.290 44111 01 0.250 0.213 0.252 0.388 OK
Bryce HarperRF 147520141 0.271 28830.387 43111 10 0.333 0.263 0.377 0.453 OK
Luis Arraez2B 3514041 0.293 2150.313 44000 00 0.000 0.311 0.342 0.406 OK
Alec Bohm1B 139520128 0.246 15790.309 43000 12 0.000 0.230 0.292 0.381 OK
Bryson Stott3B 141486120 0.247 10610.324 44110 00 0.250 0.218 0.297 0.341 OK
Brandon MarshLF 140491130 0.265 17580.310 44000 01 0.000 0.146 0.191 0.244 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 10937281 0.218 10460.291 43000 11 0.000 0.180 0.240 0.285 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 132388101 0.260 3360.308 44000 01 0.000 0.181 0.223 0.253 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37344 44 37 0.118

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.DH 9536193 0.258 17470.350 54110 11 0.250 0.249 0.327 0.440 OK
Drake BaldwinC 125491136 0.277 23740.354 55100 01 0.200 0.260 0.314 0.406 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 148560140 0.250 21690.306 55210 01 0.400 0.198 0.248 0.335 OK
Matt Olson1B 148570140 0.246 37800.320 55211 01 0.400 0.235 0.309 0.480 OK
Mauricio DubónLF 140519138 0.266 11690.311 54110 11 0.250 0.248 0.283 0.355 OK
Michael Harris IICF 142540157 0.291 25830.316 54314 10 0.750 0.203 0.229 0.348 OK
Austin Riley3B 146516116 0.225 17680.297 55100 00 0.200 0.219 0.275 0.423 OK
Brewer HicklenRF 8248 0.333 030.429 55000 02 0.000 0.135 0.248 0.311 OK
Ha-Seong KimSS 3710714 0.131 090.218 55100 02 0.200 0.145 0.212 0.175 OK
TEAM TOTALS 454212 55 39 0.286

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew PainterStarter 22108.05.83 1.4448.197 5.152235106 5.1 5 2
Jhoan DuranCloser 5553.41.52 0.99312.675 1.25330136 1.2 1 3
Jonathan BowlanSetup Man 5750.83.54 1.10212.269 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6049.04.59 1.53110.859 1.01000216 0.0 2 0
Chase ShugartReliever 4043.24.79 1.31911.053 1.01000016 0.0 0 0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Grant HolmesStarter 29136.43.70 1.3497.4112 5.03333591 5.0 5 3
Raisel IglesiasCloser 5452.92.89 1.2109.757 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Dylan LeeSetup Man 6655.42.60 0.95712.275 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Didier FuentesMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5361.32.50 1.17512.585 1.21110024 1.2 0 1
Dylan DoddMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4440.22.69 1.04510.547 1.00000213 0.0 2 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 5-4


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs

PIT 75-75 (4.79 RPG / 4.61 RA)
3 - 4
CHC 83-67 (5.33 RPG / 4.41 RA)
WINNER: CHC wins 4-3 TARGET: PIT 3 - 4 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 51.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
PIT02001000035
CHC000001003410

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.2
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-2
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak2L

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

PIT Season Quality

Record74-75
Win%0.497
Run Diff25
RD/Game0.168

CHC Season Quality

Record83-66
Win%0.557
Run Diff139
RD/Game0.933

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.5674; margin adjustment: 0.2383; applied: True

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Konnor GriffinSS 6625667 0.262 5270.318 44000 00 0.000 0.235 0.281 0.357 OK
Oneil CruzCF 8533090 0.273 18630.360 43111 12 0.333 0.257 0.326 0.426 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 146541144 0.266 17700.371 43111 10 0.333 0.258 0.337 0.443 OK
Rafael Flores Jr.1B 3411228 0.250 8190.311 43000 11 0.000 0.262 0.317 0.491 OK
Nick Gonzales2B 133504152 0.302 4570.364 44000 00 0.000 0.295 0.345 0.377 OK
Ryan O'HearnDH 9335598 0.276 18710.336 44000 00 0.000 0.258 0.314 0.452 OK
Jake MangumRF 112394112 0.284 4300.336 44200 02 0.500 0.267 0.302 0.351 OK
Jared Triolo3B 10030174 0.246 3280.319 44111 02 0.250 0.249 0.314 0.320 OK
Henry DavisC 8023839 0.164 9350.253 43000 11 0.000 0.150 0.233 0.282 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36325 33 48 0.156

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 147566159 0.281 41980.375 53000 10 0.000 0.254 0.327 0.482 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 129491134 0.273 24810.372 55113 01 0.200 0.188 0.305 0.355 OK
Michael Busch1B 145549131 0.239 18740.345 44111 00 0.250 0.238 0.334 0.456 OK
Alex Bregman3B 145572152 0.266 25840.356 44100 00 0.250 0.312 0.390 0.527 OK
Ian HappLF 139500110 0.220 23650.326 44100 01 0.250 0.177 0.298 0.304 OK
Nico HoernerSS 144574154 0.268 8670.318 44210 01 0.500 0.280 0.320 0.366 OK
Michael ConfortoDH 9723456 0.239 14400.325 44100 01 0.250 0.268 0.343 0.522 OK
Pedro Ramirez2B 6620054 0.270 6290.324 44100 01 0.250 0.265 0.311 0.492 OK
Miguel AmayaC 6519746 0.234 5230.329 44210 00 0.500 0.211 0.285 0.335 OK
TEAM TOTALS 383610 44 15 0.278

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bubba ChandlerStarter 28138.54.35 1.3728.4129 5.04111491 5.0 4 1
Mason MontgomeryCloser 6254.22.82 1.14415.895 1.02000019 1.0 0 0
Luke WeaverSetup Man 1210.46.06 1.63512.114 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6257.23.15 1.13611.573 1.23330125 1.0 1 3

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Matthew BoydStarter 19106.34.15 1.2517.386 6.053333103 6.0 3 3
Jacob WebbCloser 6456.73.65 1.37610.868 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Ryan ZeferjahnSetup Man 1510.37.86 1.94212.214 1.00001116 1.0 1 0
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2621.94.52 1.41610.325 1.00000313 1.0 3 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 4-3


San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants

SD 80-68 (4.28 RPG / 4.14 RA)
6 - 4
SF 63-87 (4.23 RPG / 4.7 RA)
WINNER: SD wins 6-4 TARGET: SD 6 - 4 SF (SD) Confidence: 53.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
SD00010013169
SF03100000045

SD Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak6W

SF Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

SD Season Quality

Record80-68
Win%0.541
Run Diff20
RD/Game0.135

SF Season Quality

Record62-87
Win%0.416
Run Diff-75
RD/Game-0.503

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6385; margin adjustment: -0.2682; applied: True

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.2B 144573164 0.286 21720.354 55110 01 0.200 0.312 0.385 0.507 OK
Dustin HarrisRF 113512 0.343 060.351 54011 02 0.000 0.276 0.328 0.368 OK
Manny Machado3B 144535118 0.221 26800.310 54211 11 0.500 0.230 0.314 0.394 OK
Luis CampusanoDH 6218552 0.281 7280.379 55000 01 0.000 0.279 0.362 0.450 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 144561139 0.248 25800.299 42000 22 0.000 0.295 0.331 0.614 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 141482108 0.224 11540.323 44213 00 0.500 0.278 0.364 0.363 OK
Jake Cronenworth1B 9432668 0.209 5280.293 44100 01 0.250 0.199 0.271 0.289 OK
Samad TaylorLF 3511636 0.310 1110.389 43110 11 0.333 0.276 0.346 0.364 OK
Ethan SalasC 6140 0.000 000.000 44211 00 0.500 0.092 0.104 0.142
TEAM TOTALS 40359 66 49 0.257

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Drew GilbertLF 11131175 0.241 9380.309 43000 11 0.000 0.229 0.281 0.390 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 132503140 0.278 8520.320 44213 00 0.500 0.228 0.259 0.324 OK
Bryce Eldridge1B 10236698 0.268 16530.358 44110 01 0.250 0.269 0.356 0.463 OK
Jonah CoxCF 3810129 0.287 4110.327 44110 01 0.250 0.276 0.316 0.403 OK
Player-814154DH 000 0.000 000.000 44000 03 0.000 0.236 0.307 0.405
Shay Whitcomb2B 155310 0.189 260.189 44111 01 0.250 0.183 0.190 0.370 OK
Andrew KniznerC 16437 0.163 110.234 44000 00 0.000 0.191 0.239 0.324 OK
Brett Harris3B 110 0.000 000.500 33000 02 0.000 0.080 0.183 0.129
Christian KossSS 5215536 0.232 490.279 32000 10 0.000 0.242 0.295 0.381 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34325 44 29 0.156

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nick PivettaStarter 521.03.43 0.95211.126 5.03442780 5.0 7 4
Mason MillerCloser 6060.31.19 0.89617.5117 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Adrian MorejonSetup Man 7071.83.13 1.18412.5100 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Bradgley RodriguezMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6157.72.03 1.12711.574 1.22000222 1.2 2 0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan WebbStarter 26154.54.14 1.1597.4127 5.13112596 5.1 5 1
Dylan SmithCloser 3630.63.53 1.56912.141 1.00001217 1.0 2 0
Trent HarrisSetup Man 1415.32.94 1.30712.421 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
Carson SeymourMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1822.26.08 1.8927.719 1.02331130 1.0 1 3
Jason FoleyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1918.04.50 1.7786.012 0.22110014 0.2 0 1

Game Summary

SD wins 6-4


Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics

SEA 70-79 (4.06 RPG / 4.44 RA)
6 - 5
OAK 60-89 (4.35 RPG / 5.72 RA)
WINNER: SEA wins 6-5 TARGET: SEA 6 - 5 OAK (SEA) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
SEA00021300067
OAK40000001055

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.8
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff13
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

SEA Season Quality

Record70-79
Win%0.470
Run Diff-57
RD/Game-0.383

OAK Season Quality

Record60-89
Win%0.403
Run Diff-204
RD/Game-1.369

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.7207; margin adjustment: -0.3027; applied: True

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
J.P. CrawfordSS 10336381 0.223 11350.343 44010 02 0.000 0.238 0.330 0.363 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 141524143 0.273 23710.371 44110 01 0.250 0.258 0.324 0.439 OK
Dominic CanzoneRF 131427110 0.258 22680.324 43111 11 0.333 0.267 0.320 0.491 OK
Cal RaleighDH 11340673 0.180 21600.294 44212 01 0.500 0.183 0.297 0.360 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 137548133 0.243 21650.302 44000 01 0.000 0.270 0.315 0.430 OK
Josh Naylor1B 139545147 0.270 10500.325 44112 01 0.250 0.292 0.329 0.362 OK
Michael Arroyo2B 383 0.375 130.400 44000 02 0.000 0.350 0.416 0.782 OK
Weston Wilson3B 3810422 0.212 3100.281 44211 01 0.500 0.325 0.383 0.419 OK
Jhonny PeredaC 278223 0.280 260.337 33000 01 0.000 0.271 0.324 0.343 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35347 66 111 0.206

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Henry BolteCF 102364101 0.277 10330.355 44000 03 0.000 0.289 0.360 0.449 OK
Jeff McNeil1B 129433116 0.268 8540.314 43113 11 0.333 0.264 0.306 0.372 OK
Zack Gelof3B 9434686 0.249 17440.312 43010 12 0.000 0.210 0.257 0.387 OK
Lawrence ButlerRF 13442296 0.227 14540.314 44212 00 0.500 0.224 0.295 0.379 OK
Max MuncyDH 7925159 0.235 9300.301 44110 00 0.250 0.249 0.305 0.397 OK
Donovan Walton2B 4310424 0.231 4130.394 43000 11 0.000 0.264 0.352 0.502 OK
Carlos CortesLF 11031682 0.259 9400.325 43000 12 0.000 0.263 0.318 0.402 OK
Brian ServenC 206614 0.212 5140.246 44000 02 0.000 0.151 0.181 0.293 OK
Alika WilliamsSS 6719048 0.253 4150.283 44110 00 0.250 0.229 0.257 0.374 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36325 55 411 0.156

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryce MillerStarter 1998.64.38 1.1879.2101 5.14441788 5.1 7 4
Andrés MuñozCloser 5651.33.86 1.18914.985 1.20001225 1.2 2 0
José A. FerrerSetup Man 6651.64.36 1.6478.448 1.01112024 1.0 0 1
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6752.34.65 1.74011.064 1.00000213 1.0 2 0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob LopezStarter 24108.24.91 1.4888.7104 5.07661796 5.0 7 6
Elvis AlvaradoCloser 4942.74.64 1.42912.258 1.10000317 1.1 3 0
Hogan HarrisSetup Man 6853.74.02 1.73213.983 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Luis MedinaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5162.23.33 1.43112.486 1.10000117 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

SEA wins 6-5


Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

TEX 74-76 (4.16 RPG / 4.45 RA)
4 - 3
ARI 79-71 (4.43 RPG / 4.42 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 4-3 TARGET: TEX 4 - 3 ARI (TEX) Confidence: 50.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
TEX00002020044
ARI02100000039

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-1
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

TEX Season Quality

Record73-76
Win%0.490
Run Diff-45
RD/Game-0.302

ARI Season Quality

Record79-70
Win%0.530
Run Diff3
RD/Game0.020

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3117; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Justin Foscue2B 8420555 0.268 11330.317 44000 01 0.000 0.192 0.240 0.365 OK
Corey SeagerSS 8832974 0.225 17400.319 44000 02 0.000 0.223 0.301 0.445 OK
Josh Jung3B 93359106 0.295 9360.362 43010 11 0.000 0.279 0.330 0.382 OK
Jake Burger1B 141510120 0.235 26830.304 44000 00 0.000 0.212 0.299 0.407 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 143547143 0.261 14590.327 43000 11 0.000 0.226 0.283 0.349 OK
Wyatt LangfordLF 9736990 0.244 17390.331 43000 11 0.000 0.219 0.302 0.437 OK
Ezequiel DuranCF 138493132 0.268 17800.328 44210 02 0.500 0.240 0.295 0.394 OK
Elias DíazC 5917843 0.242 5260.266 33112 01 0.333 0.258 0.281 0.424 OK
Danny JansenDH 5316130 0.186 6200.276 33112 01 0.333 0.210 0.266 0.393 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34314 44 310 0.129

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Lars NootbaarLF 278018 0.225 280.340 54100 12 0.250 0.251 0.355 0.383 OK
Ketel Marte2B 127508127 0.250 22730.316 55111 00 0.200 0.240 0.299 0.394 OK
Gabriel MorenoDH 118427129 0.302 12720.379 44310 00 0.750 0.306 0.378 0.452 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 143512127 0.248 9490.355 44000 01 0.000 0.232 0.332 0.318 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 142528127 0.241 20640.334 44200 00 0.500 0.222 0.296 0.448 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 138479114 0.238 24700.319 44000 00 0.000 0.270 0.357 0.532 OK
Tim Tawa1B 8326766 0.247 10370.301 44100 01 0.250 0.262 0.317 0.437 OK
James McCannC 3511534 0.296 4210.325 44112 01 0.250 0.279 0.308 0.412 OK
Jordan LawlarCF 309324 0.258 4100.317 43000 10 0.000 0.244 0.266 0.372 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38369 33 25 0.250

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cal QuantrillStarter 30100.82.95 1.0816.977 6.073315107 6.0 5 3
Jacob LatzCloser 5160.71.48 0.74110.772 1.10001021 1.1 0 0
Jakob JunisSetup Man 4746.62.90 1.2666.835 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1812.35.85 1.87011.015 0.21000011 0.2 0 0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Eduardo RodriguezStarter 29169.52.60 1.2276.8128 6.02222691 6.0 6 2
Brandyn GarciaCloser 3626.82.01 0.78412.136 1.02220119 1.0 1 2
Juan MorilloSetup Man 4840.42.90 1.11412.355 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4840.83.09 1.2257.132 1.00001217 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

TEX wins 4-3