MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

September 12, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
BAL @ TOR3 - 43 - 4TORTORTOR wins 4-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHW @ STL3 - 43 - 4STLSTLSTL wins 4-359%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CIN @ MIL6 - 106 - 10MILMILMIL wins 10-654%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ MIN6 - 46 - 4CLECLECLE wins 6-454%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
COL @ DET4 - 74 - 7DETDETDET wins 7-460%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ TB4 - 54 - 5TBTBTB wins 5-453%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
KC @ BOS4 - 64 - 6BOSBOSBOS wins 6-453%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAA @ WAS4 - 34 - 3LAALAALAA wins 4-351%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ MIA7 - 47 - 4LADLADLAD wins 7-460%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ NYY5 - 75 - 7NYYNYYNYY wins 7-554%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PHI @ ATL4 - 34 - 3PHIPHIPHI wins 4-350%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ CHC4 - 54 - 5CHCCHCCHC wins 5-453%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ SF5 - 45 - 4SDSDSD wins 5-450%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SEA @ OAK6 - 56 - 5SEASEASEA wins 6-552%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TEX @ ARI4 - 54 - 5ARIARIARI wins 5-456%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays

BAL 72-76 (4.51 RPG / 4.68 RA)
3 - 4
TOR 73-75 (4.01 RPG / 4.29 RA)
WINNER: TOR wins 4-3 TARGET: BAL 3 - 4 TOR (TOR) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
BAL20000001036
TOR20011000x46

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff-7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

BAL Season Quality

Record72-76
Win%0.486
Run Diff-24
RD/Game-0.162

TOR Season Quality

Record73-75
Win%0.493
Run Diff-42
RD/Game-0.284

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0675; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson Holliday2B 9029868 0.228 7300.295 44000 03 0.000 0.211 0.263 0.315 OK
Pete Alonso1B 145542145 0.268 34970.361 44111 01 0.250 0.241 0.330 0.438 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 142567125 0.220 21560.304 44211 02 0.500 0.231 0.305 0.355 OK
Coby MayoDH 11235981 0.226 23600.290 44100 00 0.250 0.230 0.287 0.523 OK
Samuel BasalloC 10133777 0.228 17510.296 44000 00 0.000 0.219 0.279 0.359 OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B 4414938 0.255 7300.304 43000 10 0.000 0.258 0.296 0.425 OK
Dylan BeaversLF 8727368 0.249 7380.318 44000 02 0.000 0.249 0.303 0.432 OK
Colton CowserCF 11430165 0.216 12360.303 33100 01 0.333 0.205 0.293 0.350 OK
Leody TaverasRF 12239987 0.218 8540.287 33111 00 0.333 0.212 0.275 0.336 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34336 33 19 0.182

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brett BatemanCF 2911840 0.339 190.402 44110 02 0.250 0.326 0.370 0.442 OK
George SpringerDH 111419104 0.248 14470.322 44211 01 0.500 0.230 0.290 0.348 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 132501130 0.259 8540.327 44000 00 0.000 0.260 0.321 0.343 OK
Alejandro KirkC 6724266 0.273 9360.342 44212 00 0.500 0.258 0.326 0.383 OK
Nathan LukesRF 109369101 0.274 10360.322 43000 01 0.000 0.294 0.323 0.377 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 141521122 0.234 31840.307 43000 11 0.000 0.255 0.316 0.570 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 130433105 0.242 9540.289 33111 02 0.333 0.229 0.259 0.355 OK
Ernie Clement2B 144546149 0.273 9460.300 33000 02 0.000 0.247 0.278 0.336 OK
Myles StrawLF 11126362 0.236 3230.293 32000 10 0.000 0.254 0.318 0.353 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33306 44 29 0.200

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle BradishStarter 28148.54.00 1.4558.5140 5.164426101 5.1 6 4
Andrew KittredgeCloser 5241.04.17 1.5618.338 1.20000221 1.2 2 0
Rico GarciaSetup Man 6953.82.84 1.04110.965 1.00000113 1.0 1 0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Spencer MilesStarter 4580.93.00 1.1379.081 5.01220466 5.0 4 2
Louis VarlandCloser 6667.21.34 1.08611.989 1.21000124 1.2 1 0
Tyler RogersSetup Man 6861.01.92 1.2625.336 1.02110219 1.0 2 1
Mason FluhartyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 7443.83.70 1.53012.762 1.12001223 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

TOR wins 4-3


Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals

CHW 75-72 (4.68 RPG / 4.44 RA)
3 - 4
STL 73-75 (4.56 RPG / 4.61 RA)
WINNER: STL wins 4-3 TARGET: CHW 3 - 4 STL (STL) Confidence: 59.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CHW00000000338
STL20001000145

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-6
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak4L

STL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs6.5
Avg Allowed5.8
Run Diff7
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

CHW Season Quality

Record75-72
Win%0.510
Run Diff35
RD/Game0.238

STL Season Quality

Record73-75
Win%0.493
Run Diff-8
RD/Game-0.054

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.037; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 126435116 0.267 8440.365 54000 11 0.000 0.271 0.331 0.396 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 144538133 0.247 30790.356 53011 21 0.000 0.229 0.313 0.396 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 11240183 0.207 31640.345 54100 12 0.250 0.192 0.314 0.442 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 13039395 0.242 14700.303 55212 00 0.400 0.156 0.228 0.292 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 139525109 0.208 31830.288 54210 11 0.500 0.166 0.231 0.335 OK
Braden MontgomeryRF 7828161 0.217 6370.312 44000 01 0.000 0.205 0.303 0.332 OK
Tristan PetersCF 135401112 0.279 12530.342 44100 01 0.250 0.201 0.260 0.351 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 140520140 0.269 14530.344 44100 00 0.250 0.267 0.344 0.520 OK
Kyle TeelC 268017 0.212 4180.284 43100 10 0.333 0.196 0.257 0.353 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41358 33 67 0.229

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
José FermínCF 10329673 0.247 6380.305 43000 02 0.000 0.254 0.307 0.358 OK
Iván HerreraDH 144549135 0.246 15620.354 44000 02 0.000 0.258 0.324 0.375 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 141549155 0.282 26950.339 43112 11 0.333 0.261 0.311 0.424 OK
Alec Burleson1B 143547155 0.283 221030.349 44000 02 0.000 0.287 0.358 0.469 OK
Joshua BaezLF 258423 0.274 7180.319 44000 01 0.000 0.288 0.321 0.595 OK
Leonardo BernalC 104013 0.325 2120.386 43111 00 0.333 0.303 0.355 0.453 OK
Masyn WinnSS 119432101 0.234 5520.306 33110 01 0.333 0.202 0.269 0.316 OK
Thomas Saggese2B 3811631 0.267 4120.326 33100 01 0.333 0.279 0.340 0.447 OK
Ramón Urías3B 318313 0.157 490.245 32111 10 0.500 0.099 0.176 0.222 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33295 44 210 0.172

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sean NewcombStarter 5272.53.10 1.2699.274 5.03221788 5.0 7 2
Grant TaylorCloser 4151.92.60 1.11813.276 1.10001231 1.1 2 0
Bryan HudsonSetup Man 6052.82.90 1.3079.455 0.2000018 0.2 1 0
Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4233.74.54 1.78013.149 1.02220019 1.0 0 2

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle LeahyStarter 27130.63.45 1.3408.5124 5.02005397 5.0 3 0
Riley O'BrienCloser 6156.24.16 1.3179.358 1.11000020 1.1 0 0
George SorianoSetup Man 6653.65.21 1.60410.462 0.2000028 0.2 2 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6449.64.90 1.57311.161 1.02000119 1.0 1 0
Justin BruihlMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6560.84.29 1.5957.551 1.03331126 1.0 1 3

Game Summary

STL wins 4-3


Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers

CIN 69-78 (4.16 RPG / 5.12 RA)
6 - 10
MIL 92-56 (5.15 RPG / 3.85 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 10-6 TARGET: CIN 6 - 10 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789101112RH
CIN200000012100611
MIL0040300001021012

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed7.5
Run Diff-34
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak4L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs7.6
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff29
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak4W

CIN Season Quality

Record69-78
Win%0.469
Run Diff-142
RD/Game-0.966

MIL Season Quality

Record92-56
Win%0.622
Run Diff192
RD/Game1.297

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.0382; margin adjustment: 3.2611; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Dane MyersCF 9124865 0.262 5220.349 65000 11 0.000 0.282 0.344 0.375 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 125491140 0.285 26700.366 65212 10 0.400 0.275 0.357 0.613 OK
Sal Stewart1B 144552148 0.268 301040.337 66312 01 0.500 0.262 0.326 0.398 OK
Tyler StephensonC 11436892 0.250 15520.332 66210 01 0.333 0.240 0.320 0.389 OK
Eugenio SuárezDH 11138681 0.210 22630.305 55000 01 0.000 0.183 0.284 0.400 OK
JJ BledayLF 11541089 0.217 22550.326 55000 03 0.000 0.164 0.269 0.307 OK
Matt McLain2B 11739875 0.188 15390.279 55210 00 0.400 0.166 0.243 0.298 OK
Juan Brito3B 5154 0.267 150.333 55110 02 0.200 0.197 0.263 0.330 OK
Héctor RodríguezRF 2910225 0.245 5120.300 55112 01 0.200 0.235 0.278 0.386 OK
TEAM TOTALS 494711 66 210 0.234

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sal FrelickRF 9630773 0.238 4350.299 66227 03 0.333 0.243 0.289 0.322 OK
Jake Bauers1B 126425114 0.268 24780.390 66111 00 0.167 0.273 0.402 0.569 OK
Jackson ChourioLF 111466139 0.298 23670.354 66110 01 0.167 0.369 0.407 0.594 OK
Christian YelichDH 10338790 0.233 11510.314 66111 01 0.167 0.218 0.295 0.393 OK
William ContrerasC 134520141 0.271 16820.340 55110 01 0.200 0.274 0.335 0.525 OK
Brice Turang2B 134521140 0.269 18910.363 55110 01 0.200 0.375 0.469 0.622 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 124408105 0.257 9540.343 55310 00 0.600 0.290 0.352 0.482 OK
Cooper PrattSS 5818448 0.261 3280.329 55110 01 0.200 0.246 0.322 0.335 OK
David Hamilton3B 10230975 0.243 4250.308 54111 11 0.250 0.184 0.247 0.279 OK
TEAM TOTALS 494812 1010 19 0.250

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brady SingerStarter 28143.45.15 1.4997.5120 5.08771491 5.0 4 6
Emilio PagánCloser 3835.54.06 1.0999.437 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Luis MeySetup Man 2326.87.05 1.86614.443 1.02000119 0.0 1 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 7260.02.85 1.48310.872 1.20000121 1.2 1 0
Graham AshcraftReliever 2726.92.34 1.22711.434 3.02330226 0.0 2 3

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane DrohanStarter 28111.34.20 1.3489.3115 5.04221579 5.0 5 2
Trevor MegillCloser 5654.51.98 0.88110.463 1.10000017 0.0 0 0
Abner UribeSetup Man 5447.92.25 1.08610.053 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6973.13.57 1.50513.4109 1.02110019 1.0 0 1
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1613.06.92 1.8466.29 2.14330137 2.0 1 3
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 54.44.09 1.8186.13 1.10001321 0.0 3 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 10-6


Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins

CLE 75-73 (4.07 RPG / 4.16 RA)
6 - 4
MIN 69-78 (4.61 RPG / 4.99 RA)
WINNER: CLE wins 6-4 TARGET: CLE 6 - 4 MIN (CLE) Confidence: 54.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CLE002400000610
MIN20100010047

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed5.6
Run Diff-16
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff0
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

CLE Season Quality

Record75-73
Win%0.507
Run Diff-13
RD/Game-0.088

MIN Season Quality

Record69-78
Win%0.469
Run Diff-56
RD/Game-0.381

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1794; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanCF 132479132 0.276 2270.371 55111 00 0.200 0.285 0.368 0.357 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 117441129 0.293 14610.362 54110 10 0.250 0.270 0.329 0.435 OK
José RamírezDH 10941195 0.231 11480.324 54000 10 0.000 0.214 0.298 0.337 OK
Jo AdellLF 3312228 0.230 4230.317 55000 00 0.000 0.231 0.269 0.372 OK
Nathaniel Lowe1B 3010122 0.218 5210.278 54110 01 0.250 0.230 0.311 0.488 OK
Angel Genao3B 2810224 0.235 260.284 44210 00 0.500 0.145 0.190 0.218 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 10738894 0.242 11480.337 43100 00 0.333 0.271 0.363 0.462 OK
Patrick BaileyC 6318646 0.247 7290.312 43110 10 0.333 0.167 0.237 0.260 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 137481119 0.247 11580.306 44315 00 0.750 0.240 0.285 0.368 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413610 66 31 0.278

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Luke KeaschallRF 137475129 0.272 9440.364 54211 11 0.500 0.254 0.333 0.362 OK
Brooks Lee3B 138528130 0.246 23780.293 44212 00 0.500 0.228 0.266 0.386 OK
Kody Clemens2B 129478116 0.243 26740.303 43000 11 0.000 0.250 0.304 0.507 OK
Ryan JeffersC 7928276 0.270 14540.365 44111 01 0.250 0.249 0.329 0.477 OK
Josh BellDH 141518132 0.255 19860.319 44000 01 0.000 0.218 0.282 0.395 OK
Royce Lewis1B 11241295 0.231 14520.296 44000 01 0.000 0.218 0.274 0.361 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 118380101 0.266 12460.344 44110 00 0.250 0.180 0.256 0.320 OK
Kaelen CulpepperSS 2910530 0.286 3110.339 44100 00 0.250 0.246 0.284 0.352 OK
Walker JenkinsCF 12374 0.108 150.250 43000 12 0.000 0.150 0.257 0.276 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 44 37 0.206

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Daniel EspinoStarter 99.32.90 1.39817.418 3.05332473 3.0 4 3
Cade SmithCloser 6262.52.30 1.10413.795 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Hunter GaddisSetup Man 5944.63.03 1.34510.150 1.11111124 1.1 1 1
Erik SabrowskiMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5233.93.45 1.32717.867 2.00000036 2.0 0 0
Tim HerrinMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6140.03.82 1.57510.848 1.11000220 1.1 2 0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Connor PrielippStarter 21106.65.32 1.3799.8116 5.074430104 5.0 0 4
Yoendrys GómezCloser 5039.33.44 1.45010.144 1.02220019 1.0 0 2
Jeff HoffmanSetup Man 1410.83.33 1.48115.018 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
A.J. MinterMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1713.32.03 1.2039.514 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Andrew MorrisMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5658.44.62 1.5589.461 0.21000011 0.2 0 0
Kody FunderburkMiddle Reliever 5138.84.87 1.67510.043 0.1000014 0.1 1 0

Game Summary

CLE wins 6-4


Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers

COL 55-92 (4.68 RPG / 5.76 RA)
4 - 7
DET 68-79 (4.4 RPG / 4.0 RA)
WINNER: DET wins 7-4 TARGET: COL 4 - 7 DET (DET) Confidence: 59.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
COL00003000143
DET20000140x77

COL Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed6.0
Run Diff-16
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak5L

DET Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

COL Season Quality

Record55-92
Win%0.374
Run Diff-158
RD/Game-1.075

DET Season Quality

Record68-79
Win%0.463
Run Diff59
RD/Game0.401

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.2081; margin adjustment: 0.5074; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyLF 126489145 0.297 15750.337 43010 12 0.000 0.302 0.329 0.459 OK
Connor Norby2B 288924 0.270 3120.369 43000 10 0.000 0.226 0.308 0.384 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 127475115 0.242 37780.308 43111 11 0.333 0.187 0.235 0.401 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 139496147 0.296 15660.388 44000 03 0.000 0.268 0.353 0.418 OK
Cole CarriggCF 7527172 0.266 7390.339 44111 02 0.250 0.257 0.320 0.427 OK
Kyle Karros3B 11435793 0.261 11450.355 43000 10 0.000 0.213 0.291 0.396 OK
Jordan BeckRF 5114228 0.197 1110.253 43000 10 0.000 0.189 0.248 0.278 OK
Adael AmadorDH 133913 0.333 3100.409 44112 00 0.250 0.310 0.380 0.562 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 13042491 0.215 10410.262 33000 02 0.000 0.202 0.250 0.289 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35303 44 510 0.100

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigle3B 140538146 0.271 16620.372 44313 00 0.750 0.270 0.367 0.447 OK
Hao-Yu Lee2B 9326669 0.259 8370.316 44212 01 0.500 0.221 0.311 0.360 OK
Colt KeithDH 13036893 0.253 10340.308 42011 10 0.000 0.243 0.286 0.398 OK
Riley GreeneLF 124454128 0.282 19670.371 44010 03 0.000 0.335 0.409 0.571 OK
Eduardo ValenciaC 309328 0.301 6180.316 44111 02 0.250 0.256 0.266 0.464 OK
Max ClarkCF 3612430 0.242 3150.324 44000 03 0.000 0.245 0.316 0.446 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 142477103 0.216 21640.309 43110 11 0.333 0.135 0.225 0.273 OK
Brett CallahanRF 184510 0.222 170.265 43000 01 0.000 0.225 0.259 0.375 OK
John PeckSS 8276 0.222 040.364 32010 10 0.000 0.220 0.321 0.310 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35307 77 311 0.233

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tanner GordonStarter 2191.75.50 1.4507.576 5.053311094 5.0 10 3
Jordan RomanoCloser 2118.52.92 1.1899.219 1.22442047 1.2 0 3
Brennan BernardinoSetup Man 6746.63.09 1.3737.941 1.10000119 1.1 1 0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew SearsStarter 311.44.74 1.3166.38 4.02335788 4.0 7 3
Kenley JansenCloser 4436.53.45 1.20511.145 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Tyler HoltonSetup Man 6358.53.23 1.4538.555 1.10000217 1.1 2 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5851.43.68 1.6738.146 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Drew SommersMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 3725.63.87 1.44518.653 1.21110033 1.2 0 1

Game Summary

DET wins 7-4


Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays

HOU 75-73 (4.48 RPG / 4.76 RA)
4 - 5
TB 88-59 (4.52 RPG / 4.13 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 5-4 TARGET: HOU 4 - 5 TB (TB) Confidence: 53.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
HOU00020002046
TB00100022x55

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-2
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

HOU Season Quality

Record75-73
Win%0.507
Run Diff-42
RD/Game-0.284

TB Season Quality

Record88-59
Win%0.599
Run Diff58
RD/Game0.395

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6145; margin adjustment: 0.2581; applied: True

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 97391106 0.271 17470.323 55110 01 0.200 0.236 0.269 0.357 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 144518162 0.313 38960.430 53000 11 0.000 0.232 0.346 0.454 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 140508130 0.256 19820.356 43000 11 0.000 0.248 0.324 0.405 OK
Jose Altuve2B 120467115 0.246 15440.305 44110 01 0.250 0.236 0.282 0.365 OK
Christian Walker1B 141521119 0.228 25800.302 43000 11 0.000 0.216 0.275 0.382 OK
Nelson VelázquezLF 9202 0.100 140.143 43112 10 0.333 0.188 0.243 0.385 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 3312724 0.189 4130.248 44212 01 0.500 0.220 0.271 0.358 OK
Cam SmithRF 135465102 0.219 20530.284 44100 00 0.250 0.241 0.301 0.497 OK
Yainer DiazC 7828678 0.273 11350.302 44000 03 0.000 0.291 0.319 0.436 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38336 44 49 0.182

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 141561171 0.305 22800.370 44000 01 0.000 0.288 0.336 0.449 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 142536149 0.278 19860.360 43100 10 0.333 0.263 0.330 0.412 OK
Junior Caminero3B 146558156 0.280 40950.366 43111 11 0.333 0.265 0.346 0.546 OK
Liam HicksC 309127 0.297 4170.387 42011 20 0.000 0.254 0.320 0.398 OK
Chandler SimpsonLF 135523160 0.306 0310.334 44011 00 0.000 0.279 0.313 0.324 OK
Victor Mesa Jr.RF 5919247 0.245 13280.305 44000 02 0.000 0.286 0.345 0.576 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 12341484 0.203 14450.285 33000 00 0.000 0.179 0.253 0.268 OK
Richie Palacios2B 10731372 0.230 9450.327 33211 00 0.667 0.256 0.346 0.502 OK
Jorge MateoSS 17527 0.135 170.193 33111 01 0.333 0.174 0.214 0.272 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33295 55 45 0.172

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Peter LambertStarter 25135.73.78 1.2689.1137 5.12110385 5.1 3 1
Josh HaderCloser 4140.40.67 0.59412.054 1.22221133 1.2 1 2
Bryan AbreuSetup Man 6052.54.29 1.48613.076 1.01223128 1.0 1 2

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ian SeymourStarter 42109.84.18 1.18411.5140 5.02223693 5.0 6 2
Bryan BakerCloser 5855.61.46 0.8819.961 1.02001125 1.0 1 0
Kevin KellySetup Man 6557.52.97 1.0618.554 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Tyler WellsMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1316.31.66 0.7369.417 1.12220035 1.1 0 2
Cam BooserMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 3628.92.80 1.03812.540 0.2000028 0.2 2 0

Game Summary

TB wins 5-4


Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox

KC 66-82 (4.27 RPG / 4.86 RA)
4 - 6
BOS 80-68 (4.42 RPG / 3.87 RA)
WINNER: BOS wins 6-4 TARGET: KC 4 - 6 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
KC10011001046
BOS12000030x67

KC Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

KC Season Quality

Record66-82
Win%0.446
Run Diff-87
RD/Game-0.588

BOS Season Quality

Record80-68
Win%0.541
Run Diff81
RD/Game0.547

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8567; margin adjustment: 0.3598; applied: True

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carter JensenDH 135480111 0.231 23700.319 44000 02 0.000 0.233 0.325 0.478 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 128500140 0.280 18530.358 44212 01 0.500 0.242 0.325 0.425 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 130471132 0.280 23700.328 43111 11 0.333 0.293 0.331 0.478 OK
Salvador PerezC 137530123 0.232 19720.276 44110 01 0.250 0.241 0.272 0.398 OK
Nick Loftin3B 10634080 0.235 7420.318 44011 00 0.000 0.222 0.285 0.350 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 10037189 0.240 11480.329 44100 02 0.250 0.221 0.308 0.370 OK
Isaac Collins2B 13040991 0.222 6400.326 44000 02 0.000 0.201 0.311 0.309 OK
Tyler TolbertLF 4911735 0.299 380.366 33100 01 0.333 0.284 0.348 0.390 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 8526359 0.224 6240.272 33000 01 0.000 0.209 0.247 0.286 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34336 44 111 0.182

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Roman AnthonyDH 4216238 0.235 490.340 44114 00 0.250 0.230 0.325 0.378 OK
Mickey Gasper1B 5416644 0.265 9230.369 44110 01 0.250 0.251 0.352 0.490 OK
Adley RutschmanC 207113 0.183 490.266 43110 11 0.333 0.243 0.313 0.484 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 141535139 0.260 23710.340 44110 00 0.250 0.260 0.336 0.456 OK
Trevor StorySS 5221049 0.233 3230.262 44000 02 0.000 0.242 0.265 0.341 OK
Nick Sogard2B 5018447 0.255 4150.352 44210 00 0.500 0.247 0.333 0.362 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 134457110 0.241 12590.318 32000 10 0.000 0.235 0.314 0.344 OK
Jarren DuranLF 136516106 0.205 20630.263 33112 02 0.333 0.224 0.278 0.392 OK
Nate EatonCF 13365 0.139 150.262 33000 00 0.000 0.156 0.251 0.295 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33317 66 26 0.226

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Randy DobnakStarter 1262.52.59 1.3446.243 6.04331593 6.0 5 3
Steven CruzCloser 5351.04.41 1.35310.459 0.22331118 0.2 1 3
Nate PearsonSetup Man 2020.30.44 0.8878.920 1.11000020 1.1 0 0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ranger SuarezStarter 25127.43.53 1.2488.6122 5.15331792 5.1 7 3
Aroldis ChapmanCloser 4948.21.49 1.05812.165 1.20000121 1.2 1 0
Erik MillerSetup Man 1414.10.64 1.06416.025 1.01110216 1.0 2 1
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4947.31.90 0.84610.354 1.00000113 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

BOS wins 6-4


Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals

LAA 56-91 (4.04 RPG / 4.54 RA)
4 - 3
WAS 68-81 (5.1 RPG / 5.09 RA)
WINNER: LAA wins 4-3 TARGET: LAA 4 - 3 WAS (LAA) Confidence: 50.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
LAA00000003145
WAS00001011036

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed5.5
Run Diff-15
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

LAA Season Quality

Record56-91
Win%0.381
Run Diff-74
RD/Game-0.503

WAS Season Quality

Record68-81
Win%0.456
Run Diff1
RD/Game0.007

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2749; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 142566137 0.242 25720.322 44110 01 0.250 0.261 0.311 0.494 OK
Mike TroutCF 128467114 0.244 21520.376 43000 10 0.000 0.256 0.347 0.455 OK
Vaughn Grissom1B 10136789 0.243 10590.304 43000 11 0.000 0.232 0.288 0.366 OK
Moisés BallesterosDH 3211924 0.202 280.252 44110 02 0.250 0.248 0.301 0.394 OK
Christian Moore2B 248717 0.195 190.253 44111 02 0.250 0.231 0.275 0.336 OK
Jose SiriLF 7518842 0.223 8260.272 44100 01 0.250 0.216 0.255 0.385 OK
Denzer Guzman3B 6522851 0.224 7250.266 44000 02 0.000 0.218 0.256 0.353 OK
Travis d'ArnaudC 276512 0.185 130.264 33113 01 0.333 0.195 0.249 0.309 OK
Wade MecklerRF 7724572 0.294 3250.364 33000 00 0.000 0.294 0.363 0.390 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34325 44 210 0.156

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodDH 122466124 0.266 30750.393 43000 11 0.000 0.267 0.394 0.498 OK
Abimelec Ortiz1B 3510822 0.204 5110.239 43000 10 0.000 0.136 0.173 0.237 OK
Dylan CrewsRF 9435680 0.225 11390.294 44111 01 0.250 0.237 0.286 0.397 OK
CJ AbramsSS 140533139 0.261 30950.338 44000 03 0.000 0.238 0.300 0.415 OK
Brady House3B 8128770 0.244 10430.304 44200 01 0.500 0.251 0.310 0.391 OK
Daylen LileLF 147556139 0.250 20820.302 44100 00 0.250 0.159 0.210 0.318 OK
Keibert RuizC 9230486 0.283 10470.320 44211 00 0.500 0.189 0.228 0.358 OK
Jacob YoungCF 11839197 0.248 10430.308 43011 01 0.000 0.225 0.274 0.335 OK
Jorbit Vivas2B 10427867 0.241 3270.333 33000 00 0.000 0.248 0.339 0.355 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35326 33 27 0.188

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Walbert UreñaStarter 26129.02.79 1.2338.7124 6.02111688 6.0 6 1
Ben JoyceCloser 1210.43.46 1.05812.114 1.03110022 1.0 0 1
Ryan WatsonSetup Man 149.92.73 1.31313.615 1.11111124 1.1 1 1
Tayler SaucedoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2112.04.50 1.50015.020 0.2000008 0.2 0 0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew AlvarezStarter 2290.83.77 1.3779.091 5.00000875 5.0 8 0
Clayton BeeterCloser 4943.14.59 1.4859.847 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Erik TolmanSetup Man 88.43.21 1.4299.69 1.13220026 1.1 0 2
Brad LordMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 3669.24.16 1.3739.170 1.12222243 1.1 2 2

Game Summary

LAA wins 4-3


Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins

LAD 90-57 (4.99 RPG / 3.82 RA)
7 - 4
MIA 72-76 (4.43 RPG / 4.41 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 7-4 TARGET: LAD 7 - 4 MIA (LAD) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
LAD40020000179
MIA00000003147

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs6.4
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff20
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak8W

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs5.9
Avg Allowed6.8
Run Diff-9
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak4L

LAD Season Quality

Record90-57
Win%0.612
Run Diff173
RD/Game1.177

MIA Season Quality

Record72-76
Win%0.486
Run Diff3
RD/Game0.020

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.1782; margin adjustment: -0.4948; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Tommy EdmanCF 6624062 0.258 6320.338 54000 01 0.000 0.259 0.320 0.392 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 139521155 0.298 16640.376 54112 11 0.250 0.237 0.321 0.363 OK
Mookie BettsSS 107422105 0.249 19600.309 54213 11 0.500 0.259 0.320 0.469 OK
Max Muncy3B 133436111 0.255 27700.352 54010 12 0.000 0.323 0.404 0.544 OK
Will SmithC 5920048 0.240 7280.329 54110 10 0.250 0.243 0.326 0.418 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 109386103 0.267 13570.332 55110 03 0.200 0.319 0.382 0.493 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 135483111 0.230 14650.321 43000 10 0.000 0.268 0.347 0.532 OK
Josue De PaulaDH 130 0.000 000.250 44210 01 0.500 0.052 0.262 0.084
Alex Freeland2B 8021548 0.223 3200.307 44212 00 0.500 0.204 0.301 0.282 OK
TEAM TOTALS 42369 77 59 0.250

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle StowersDH 11040499 0.245 19600.335 44110 02 0.250 0.227 0.313 0.436 OK
Heriberto HernándezLF 11439188 0.225 24630.306 43113 12 0.333 0.199 0.265 0.395 OK
Griffin Conine1B 7623560 0.255 15360.347 44000 02 0.000 0.244 0.318 0.433 OK
Otto LopezSS 144576177 0.307 10660.346 44000 00 0.000 0.344 0.376 0.457 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 138474105 0.222 9360.337 44110 00 0.250 0.246 0.320 0.340 OK
Javier Sanoja2B 119405119 0.294 8570.328 44100 00 0.250 0.299 0.333 0.472 OK
Owen CaissieRF 10329164 0.220 14570.282 44211 01 0.500 0.145 0.212 0.296 OK
Graham Pauley3B 4712927 0.209 3230.259 44100 01 0.250 0.237 0.285 0.434 OK
Joe MackC 9127465 0.237 13450.287 43000 01 0.000 0.173 0.214 0.307 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36347 44 19 0.206

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tyler GlasnowStarter 1057.23.15 0.89211.070 6.02001692 6.0 6 0
Tanner ScottCloser 6353.22.88 1.07112.272 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Edgardo HenriquezSetup Man 6051.42.98 1.12812.370 1.03330222 1.0 2 3
Brock StewartMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2320.12.69 1.1449.020 1.02110119 1.0 1 1

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tyler PhillipsStarter 34111.63.63 1.3717.593 5.044452107 5.0 2 3
Calvin FaucherCloser 6253.44.21 1.53611.367 1.00220217 1.0 2 2
Tyler ZuberSetup Man 3928.65.98 1.71312.038 1.01000216 1.0 2 0
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5851.83.65 1.25511.868 1.02000119 1.0 1 0
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1413.66.62 1.5447.912 1.02110219 1.0 2 1

Game Summary

LAD wins 7-4


New York Mets @ New York Yankees

NYM 68-79 (4.29 RPG / 4.58 RA)
5 - 7
NYY 85-62 (4.58 RPG / 3.67 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 7-5 TARGET: NYM 5 - 7 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 53.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
12345678910RH
NYM002012000058
NYY0010001203711

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs6.9
Avg Allowed5.8
Run Diff11
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff16
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak4W

NYM Season Quality

Record68-79
Win%0.463
Run Diff-42
RD/Game-0.286

NYY Season Quality

Record85-62
Win%0.578
Run Diff133
RD/Game0.905

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8824; margin adjustment: 0.3706; applied: True

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Francisco LindorSS 8835281 0.230 18420.310 55212 00 0.400 0.210 0.269 0.407 OK
Juan SotoDH 9433793 0.276 24590.393 55110 01 0.200 0.260 0.374 0.489 OK
Bo Bichette3B 141562150 0.267 16730.316 54000 10 0.000 0.250 0.305 0.379 OK
Carson BengeRF 137524141 0.269 16540.334 55000 00 0.000 0.247 0.319 0.364 OK
Jared Young1B 9128776 0.265 7340.327 54112 02 0.250 0.188 0.249 0.296 OK
Marcus Semien2B 12443798 0.224 14460.291 54110 00 0.250 0.234 0.299 0.331 OK
A.J. EwingCF 10438198 0.257 9370.326 44111 00 0.250 0.286 0.346 0.429 OK
Brett BatyLF 12138088 0.232 10500.296 44100 00 0.250 0.247 0.311 0.443 OK
Francisco AlvarezC 9832773 0.223 14350.309 43100 00 0.333 0.192 0.263 0.369 OK
TEAM TOTALS 42388 55 13 0.211

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Paul Goldschmidt1B 9132582 0.252 18490.307 65211 11 0.400 0.203 0.256 0.360 OK
Aaron JudgeDH 6222456 0.250 17380.374 65111 10 0.200 0.253 0.366 0.493 OK
Cody BellingerLF 117437118 0.270 14670.347 55111 02 0.200 0.308 0.370 0.540 OK
Heliot RamosRF 256910 0.145 270.289 55000 03 0.000 0.233 0.294 0.412 OK
Amed Rosario3B 7620650 0.243 10310.279 55000 00 0.000 0.191 0.232 0.290 OK
Spencer JonesCF 7020954 0.258 9340.333 54312 10 0.750 0.319 0.390 0.502 OK
George Lombard Jr.SS 2910023 0.230 3110.288 55210 01 0.400 0.212 0.268 0.352 OK
Anthony Volpe2B 5517644 0.250 2220.333 54212 11 0.500 0.252 0.324 0.363 OK
Austin WellsC 10930755 0.179 10280.278 53010 22 0.000 0.135 0.260 0.213 OK
TEAM TOTALS 474111 77 610 0.268

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zac ThorntonStarter 1265.43.58 1.2087.051 5.120067109 5.1 7 0
Kodai SengaCloser 2755.27.50 1.68511.168 2.11110138 0.1 1 2
Daniel DuarteSetup Man 2325.42.48 0.9069.928 1.11110120 1.1 1 2
Nathan LavenderMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1510.62.55 1.32114.417 1.07550134 1.0 1 2

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Gerrit ColeStarter 19108.93.47 1.1119.3113 6.063313110 6.0 3 3
David BednarCloser 5958.92.90 1.10410.871 1.11110020 1.1 0 1
Brent HeadrickSetup Man 7559.12.44 1.48913.991 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Paul BlackburnMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5770.81.91 1.2018.466 1.20000021 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 7-5


Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

PHI 82-66 (4.49 RPG / 4.24 RA)
4 - 3
ATL 87-62 (4.56 RPG / 3.85 RA)
WINNER: PHI wins 4-3 TARGET: PHI 4 - 3 ATL (PHI) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
PHI130000000410
ATL10000011036

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

PHI Season Quality

Record82-66
Win%0.554
Run Diff36
RD/Game0.243

ATL Season Quality

Record87-61
Win%0.588
Run Diff111
RD/Game0.750

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3651; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 140531126 0.237 43910.349 54100 11 0.250 0.198 0.285 0.432 OK
Trea TurnerSS 140586141 0.241 19560.290 55111 00 0.200 0.214 0.252 0.389 OK
Bryce HarperRF 146517140 0.271 27820.388 54210 11 0.500 0.263 0.377 0.453 OK
Luis Arraez2B 3413641 0.301 2150.322 55213 00 0.400 0.311 0.342 0.402 OK
Alec Bohm1B 138516126 0.244 15790.308 43000 00 0.000 0.230 0.292 0.381 OK
Bryson Stott3B 140483120 0.248 10610.326 44000 00 0.000 0.218 0.297 0.341 OK
Brandon MarshLF 139488130 0.266 17580.312 44100 01 0.250 0.146 0.191 0.244 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 10837079 0.214 10460.288 44310 01 0.750 0.180 0.240 0.286 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 131385100 0.260 2350.308 44000 03 0.000 0.181 0.223 0.253 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403710 44 27 0.270

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.DH 9435890 0.251 16450.344 43112 11 0.333 0.249 0.327 0.440 OK
Drake BaldwinC 124486135 0.278 23720.355 44000 02 0.000 0.260 0.314 0.406 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 147557139 0.250 21680.305 44100 01 0.250 0.197 0.247 0.334 OK
Matt Olson1B 147565140 0.248 37800.322 44000 01 0.000 0.235 0.309 0.480 OK
Mauricio DubónLF 139515137 0.266 11670.310 44111 00 0.250 0.249 0.284 0.356 OK
Michael Harris IICF 141535153 0.286 24800.311 44000 01 0.000 0.203 0.230 0.349 OK
Austin Riley3B 145513115 0.224 17680.296 44000 00 0.000 0.219 0.275 0.423 OK
Brewer HicklenRF 8248 0.333 030.429 33210 00 0.667 0.135 0.248 0.311 OK
Ha-Seong KimSS 3610414 0.135 090.217 33100 02 0.333 0.145 0.212 0.175 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34336 33 18 0.182

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tim MayzaStarter 5456.23.52 1.1579.459 5.02111673 5.0 6 1
Jhoan DuranCloser 5553.41.52 0.99312.675 1.11110120 1.1 1 1
Jonathan BowlanSetup Man 5750.83.54 1.10212.269 1.23110126 1.2 1 1
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5947.94.70 1.48210.757 1.00000013 1.0 0 0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tyler MahleStarter 635.41.27 0.9608.935 5.293323118 5.2 3 3
Raisel IglesiasCloser 5452.92.89 1.2109.757 1.01110116 1.0 1 1
Dylan LeeSetup Man 6655.42.60 0.95712.275 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Didier FuentesMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5361.32.50 1.17512.585 1.10000222 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

PHI wins 4-3


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs

PIT 74-74 (4.8 RPG / 4.63 RA)
4 - 5
CHC 82-66 (5.35 RPG / 4.42 RA)
WINNER: CHC wins 5-4 TARGET: PIT 4 - 5 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
PIT00020002048
CHC00030010159

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff0
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff-3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

PIT Season Quality

Record74-74
Win%0.500
Run Diff26
RD/Game0.176

CHC Season Quality

Record82-66
Win%0.554
Run Diff138
RD/Game0.932

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4382; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Konnor GriffinSS 6525267 0.266 5270.322 55000 03 0.000 0.253 0.300 0.378 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 134524134 0.256 29830.325 54100 11 0.250 0.265 0.327 0.435 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 145536143 0.267 17700.372 44000 01 0.000 0.258 0.345 0.479 OK
Ryan O'HearnDH 9235197 0.276 17680.337 44210 02 0.500 0.262 0.318 0.438 OK
Oneil CruzCF 8432590 0.277 18630.365 43100 10 0.333 0.314 0.390 0.504 OK
Esmerlyn ValdezRF 6922952 0.227 14390.343 44112 00 0.250 0.217 0.331 0.464 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 10435888 0.246 10440.344 44111 01 0.250 0.239 0.320 0.320 OK
Rafael Flores Jr.C 3311127 0.243 8190.306 43000 11 0.000 0.274 0.324 0.472 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 133504152 0.302 4570.364 43211 00 0.667 0.292 0.341 0.377 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38348 44 39 0.235

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 146562159 0.283 41980.378 44110 01 0.250 0.270 0.343 0.517 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 129491134 0.273 24810.372 43211 00 0.667 0.250 0.339 0.406 OK
Michael Busch1B 144546130 0.238 17730.345 44111 01 0.250 0.230 0.326 0.370 OK
Alex Bregman3B 144570151 0.265 25840.353 44100 01 0.250 0.302 0.375 0.545 OK
Ian HappLF 138498110 0.221 23650.326 43000 10 0.000 0.226 0.336 0.358 OK
Nico HoernerSS 143571153 0.268 8660.317 44000 00 0.000 0.277 0.317 0.363 OK
Pedro Ramirez2B 6519752 0.264 5280.319 44212 00 0.500 0.233 0.285 0.393 OK
Michael ConfortoDH 9623056 0.243 14400.330 44000 01 0.000 0.288 0.369 0.533 OK
Carson KellyC 10435092 0.263 10550.340 44211 00 0.500 0.277 0.337 0.416 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36349 55 14 0.265

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Paul SkenesStarter 29152.23.90 1.17010.7181 5.15331191 5.1 1 3
Mason MontgomeryCloser 6254.22.82 1.14415.895 1.02110219 1.0 2 1
Luke WeaverSetup Man 1210.46.06 1.63512.114 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6156.22.88 1.10311.471 1.02110014 0.2 0 1

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Clay HolmesStarter 632.43.61 1.1735.620 5.252235110 5.2 5 2
Jacob WebbCloser 6355.63.72 1.38510.867 1.00000120 1.0 1 0
Trent ThorntonSetup Man 4741.83.66 1.3646.731 1.01000216 1.0 2 0
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1410.27.94 1.96111.513 1.02220019 1.0 0 2
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2621.94.52 1.41610.325 0.1000014 0.1 1 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 5-4


San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants

SD 79-68 (4.26 RPG / 4.13 RA)
5 - 4
SF 63-86 (4.22 RPG / 4.68 RA)
WINNER: SD wins 5-4 TARGET: SD 5 - 4 SF (SD) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
SD02001020057
SF30000010047

SD Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak5W

SF Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.5
Avg Allowed5.9
Run Diff-4
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

SD Season Quality

Record79-68
Win%0.537
Run Diff19
RD/Game0.129

SF Season Quality

Record62-86
Win%0.419
Run Diff-74
RD/Game-0.500

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6323; margin adjustment: -0.2656; applied: True

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.2B 143570162 0.284 20710.350 54100 11 0.250 0.300 0.361 0.486 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 140477104 0.218 11540.319 54000 02 0.000 0.218 0.313 0.293 OK
Manny Machado3B 143531118 0.222 26800.311 55111 01 0.200 0.244 0.327 0.421 OK
Luis CampusanoDH 6118051 0.283 7280.383 44112 00 0.250 0.290 0.374 0.478 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 143557138 0.248 24790.298 44100 03 0.250 0.334 0.364 0.548 OK
Austin HaysRF 164010 0.250 130.250 44000 01 0.000 0.254 0.266 0.354 OK
Jake Cronenworth1B 9332267 0.208 5270.294 42110 20 0.500 0.192 0.266 0.284 OK
Samad TaylorLF 3411335 0.310 1110.386 43111 00 0.333 0.275 0.338 0.358 OK
Freddy FerminC 7321843 0.197 4190.269 44111 00 0.250 0.195 0.264 0.306 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39347 55 38 0.206

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Drew GilbertCF 11030773 0.238 8360.307 53000 12 0.000 0.149 0.207 0.267 OK
Rafael DeversDH 145543140 0.258 35950.341 55111 02 0.200 0.262 0.352 0.575 OK
Bryce Eldridge1B 10136298 0.271 16530.361 44111 02 0.250 0.277 0.367 0.472 OK
Turner HillLF 216717 0.254 0120.346 44111 00 0.250 0.234 0.318 0.327 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 131499139 0.279 8520.320 44211 00 0.500 0.221 0.256 0.315 OK
Osleivis Basabe2B 3411423 0.202 5120.258 43100 10 0.333 0.191 0.240 0.342 OK
Drew CavanaughC 4612130 0.248 090.326 43000 12 0.000 0.147 0.223 0.190 OK
Shay Whitcomb3B 14509 0.180 150.180 44000 03 0.000 0.181 0.188 0.317 OK
Christian KossSS 5115235 0.230 490.278 44100 00 0.250 0.232 0.286 0.359 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 44 311 0.206

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael KingStarter 29165.23.05 1.1867.8144 6.043329108 6.0 9 3
Mason MillerCloser 5959.31.21 0.91117.5115 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Adrian MorejonSetup Man 6970.83.18 1.20112.598 1.02110024 1.0 0 1
Bradgley RodriguezMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6157.72.03 1.12711.574 1.01000116 1.0 1 0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cesar PerdomoStarter 210.00.90 0.8007.28 5.05221594 5.0 5 2
Dylan SmithCloser 3529.63.65 1.58812.541 1.01110221 1.0 2 1
Trent HarrisSetup Man 1415.32.94 1.30712.421 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Carson SeymourMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1721.26.37 1.8877.618 1.01221132 1.0 1 2
Jason FoleyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1817.04.76 1.7656.412 0.2000008 0.2 0 0
Reiver SanmartinMiddle Reliever 2116.05.62 1.6259.016 0.1000004 0.1 0 0

Game Summary

SD wins 5-4


Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics

SEA 69-79 (3.96 RPG / 4.47 RA)
6 - 5
OAK 60-88 (4.37 RPG / 5.63 RA)
WINNER: SEA wins 6-5 TARGET: SEA 6 - 5 OAK (SEA) Confidence: 52.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
SEA11010010269
OAK000101102512

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff12
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

SEA Season Quality

Record69-79
Win%0.466
Run Diff-75
RD/Game-0.507

OAK Season Quality

Record60-88
Win%0.405
Run Diff-186
RD/Game-1.257

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4152; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Randy ArozarenaLF 140519141 0.272 22670.371 54110 01 0.250 0.253 0.321 0.402 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 130423108 0.255 21660.323 55112 02 0.200 0.250 0.294 0.412 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 136543130 0.239 21650.298 55100 01 0.200 0.225 0.268 0.357 OK
Cal RaleighC 11240273 0.182 21600.294 43000 12 0.000 0.194 0.290 0.344 OK
Josh Naylor1B 138540144 0.267 10490.323 44211 02 0.500 0.267 0.307 0.334 OK
J.P. Crawford3B 10235779 0.221 10330.342 44000 02 0.000 0.227 0.338 0.330 OK
Taylor WardRF 25799 0.114 050.222 43212 11 0.667 0.210 0.339 0.289 OK
Cole YoungSS 146533132 0.248 16600.311 44210 02 0.500 0.255 0.303 0.396 OK
Michael Arroyo2B 240 0.000 000.000 44011 01 0.000 0.056 0.070 0.092
TEAM TOTALS 39369 66 214 0.250

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Henry BolteCF 101362100 0.276 10330.353 54111 10 0.250 0.283 0.350 0.440 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 128430116 0.270 8540.316 55311 00 0.600 0.270 0.306 0.366 OK
Zack Gelof3B 9334386 0.251 17440.315 55000 01 0.000 0.213 0.261 0.383 OK
Lawrence ButlerRF 13341996 0.229 14540.314 54200 10 0.500 0.230 0.293 0.398 OK
Carlos CortesLF 10931281 0.260 9400.326 54111 00 0.250 0.262 0.318 0.404 OK
Tommy White1B 4216040 0.250 280.267 55211 01 0.400 0.241 0.259 0.313 OK
Max MuncyDH 7825058 0.232 9300.299 44000 01 0.000 0.248 0.303 0.409 OK
Alika WilliamsSS 6618648 0.258 4150.289 44200 01 0.500 0.246 0.273 0.394 OK
Jonah HeimC 8328759 0.206 12340.260 44111 01 0.250 0.186 0.236 0.316 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423912 55 25 0.308

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryan WooStarter 27155.44.05 1.0629.2158 5.25220594 5.2 5 2
Andrés MuñozCloser 5651.33.86 1.18914.985 1.02110019 1.0 0 1
José A. FerrerSetup Man 6651.64.36 1.6478.448 1.12000023 1.1 0 0
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6752.34.65 1.74011.064 1.03222030 1.0 0 2

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Gage JumpStarter 1993.45.30 1.54210.2106 4.15441786 4.1 7 4
Elvis AlvaradoCloser 4942.74.64 1.42912.258 1.00000313 1.0 3 0
Hogan HarrisSetup Man 6853.74.02 1.73213.983 1.01110116 1.0 1 1
Luis MedinaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5162.23.33 1.43112.486 1.11000232 1.1 2 0
Scott BlewettMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1825.02.88 1.3608.624 1.12111131 1.1 1 1

Game Summary

SEA wins 6-5


Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

TEX 72-76 (4.13 RPG / 4.46 RA)
4 - 5
ARI 79-69 (4.44 RPG / 4.39 RA)
WINNER: ARI wins 5-4 TARGET: TEX 4 - 5 ARI (ARI) Confidence: 55.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
TEX00000400047
ARI10130000x57

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed5.4
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak3L

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.2
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff2
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

TEX Season Quality

Record72-76
Win%0.486
Run Diff-49
RD/Game-0.331

ARI Season Quality

Record79-69
Win%0.534
Run Diff7
RD/Game0.047

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3677; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc PedersonDH 13237288 0.237 26530.325 55000 01 0.000 0.252 0.323 0.539 OK
Corey SeagerSS 8732573 0.225 17400.318 44110 02 0.250 0.216 0.292 0.454 OK
Ezequiel Duran3B 137488131 0.268 17780.330 43000 01 0.000 0.248 0.306 0.404 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 142542141 0.260 14580.326 43110 00 0.333 0.221 0.280 0.336 OK
Wyatt LangfordLF 9636588 0.241 16380.329 44100 01 0.250 0.193 0.290 0.363 OK
Jake Burger1B 140506119 0.235 26830.305 43212 10 0.667 0.211 0.303 0.460 OK
Evan CarterCF 12636270 0.193 9350.289 44112 00 0.250 0.192 0.276 0.309 OK
Nicky Lopez2B 7821059 0.281 1230.324 44000 01 0.000 0.306 0.336 0.363 OK
Elias DíazC 5817440 0.230 5250.255 44100 00 0.250 0.144 0.172 0.286 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 44 16 0.206

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Geraldo PerdomoSS 142508126 0.248 9490.355 54110 12 0.250 0.223 0.325 0.307 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 141525127 0.242 20630.336 43112 11 0.333 0.224 0.299 0.468 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 117423127 0.300 12720.378 44213 01 0.500 0.282 0.344 0.410 OK
Ketel MarteDH 126504127 0.252 22730.318 43110 10 0.333 0.258 0.325 0.441 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 137477114 0.239 24700.317 43110 10 0.333 0.284 0.358 0.576 OK
Ildemaro Vargas2B 122430110 0.256 9670.295 44000 00 0.000 0.264 0.306 0.380 OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF 5118639 0.210 2220.254 42000 21 0.000 0.220 0.255 0.317 OK
Tim Tawa1B 8226465 0.246 10370.299 44000 02 0.000 0.193 0.250 0.345 OK
Jordan LawlarCF 309324 0.258 4100.317 44100 02 0.250 0.249 0.270 0.370 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37317 55 69 0.226

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kumar RockerStarter 27130.74.75 1.4848.7127 4.275544108 4.2 4 5
Jacob LatzCloser 5059.61.51 0.75510.670 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Jakob JunisSetup Man 4746.62.90 1.2666.835 1.00002121 1.0 1 0
Tyler AlexanderMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6655.83.71 1.4709.056 1.10000326 1.1 3 0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon PfaadtStarter 26112.93.67 1.1966.177 6.164414112 6.1 4 4
Brandyn GarciaCloser 3626.82.01 0.78412.136 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Juan MorilloSetup Man 4840.42.90 1.11412.355 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4840.83.09 1.2257.132 0.2000018 0.2 1 0

Game Summary

ARI wins 5-4