MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

September 11, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
BAL @ TOR4 - 54 - 5TORTORTOR wins 5-450%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHW @ STL4 - 64 - 6STLSTLSTL wins 6-460%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CIN @ MIL6 - 86 - 8MILMILMIL wins 8-654%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ MIN4 - 54 - 5MINMINMIN wins 5-451%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
COL @ DET4 - 54 - 5DETDETDET wins 5-454%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ TB3 - 53 - 5TBTBTB wins 5-350%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
KC @ BOS4 - 64 - 6BOSBOSBOS wins 6-465%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAA @ WAS4 - 54 - 5WASWASWAS wins 5-458%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ MIA6 - 46 - 4LADLADLAD wins 6-458%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ NYY4 - 64 - 6NYYNYYNYY wins 6-453%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PHI @ ATL3 - 43 - 4ATLATLATL wins 4-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ CHC4 - 54 - 5CHCCHCCHC wins 5-453%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ SF5 - 45 - 4SDSDSD wins 5-450%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SEA @ OAK7 - 67 - 6SEASEASEA wins 7-651%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TEX @ ARI6 - 46 - 4TEXTEXTEX wins 6-457%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays

BAL 71-76 (4.5 RPG / 4.68 RA)
4 - 5
TOR 73-74 (4.01 RPG / 4.27 RA)
WINNER: TOR wins 5-4 TARGET: BAL 4 - 5 TOR (TOR) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
BAL00000040045
TOR00011210x59

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff-9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff18
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

BAL Season Quality

Record71-76
Win%0.483
Run Diff-27
RD/Game-0.184

TOR Season Quality

Record73-74
Win%0.497
Run Diff-39
RD/Game-0.265

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1968; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Dylan BeaversLF 8626866 0.246 6350.316 44000 00 0.000 0.226 0.279 0.350 OK
Pete Alonso1B 144537145 0.270 34970.364 44110 00 0.250 0.260 0.359 0.468 OK
Jackson Holliday2B 8929368 0.232 7300.300 44110 02 0.250 0.226 0.281 0.334 OK
Coby MayoDH 11135480 0.226 22590.291 43000 02 0.000 0.232 0.292 0.507 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 141563123 0.218 21560.303 44212 01 0.500 0.216 0.293 0.369 OK
Samuel BasalloC 10033476 0.228 17510.293 44112 01 0.250 0.201 0.255 0.335 OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B 4314535 0.241 7300.293 33000 00 0.000 0.218 0.263 0.414 OK
Heston KjerstadRF 471 0.143 000.143 33000 00 0.000 0.163 0.175 0.197 OK
Colton CowserCF 11329864 0.215 12340.301 33000 01 0.000 0.138 0.230 0.254 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33325 44 07 0.156

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brett BatemanCF 2811337 0.327 070.394 44100 00 0.250 0.303 0.356 0.370 OK
George SpringerDH 110414102 0.246 14470.321 43111 10 0.333 0.164 0.238 0.297 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 131497129 0.260 8540.326 44211 00 0.500 0.246 0.306 0.333 OK
Alejandro KirkC 6623966 0.276 9360.341 44000 00 0.000 0.279 0.332 0.418 OK
Nathan LukesRF 108365100 0.274 10360.322 44211 01 0.500 0.242 0.277 0.319 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 140517120 0.232 30830.306 44000 01 0.000 0.254 0.317 0.487 OK
Josh SmithLF 194111 0.268 570.367 42210 10 1.000 0.243 0.332 0.441 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 129429105 0.245 9530.292 44112 02 0.250 0.246 0.280 0.378 OK
Ernie Clement2B 143542148 0.273 9460.300 44000 01 0.000 0.236 0.267 0.315 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36339 55 25 0.273

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chris BassittStarter 1781.65.18 1.6546.761 5.08441291 5.0 2 4
Andrew KittredgeCloser 5140.04.27 1.6008.337 1.01111020 1.0 0 1
Rico GarciaSetup Man 6853.72.85 1.04310.965 2.00000319 2.0 3 0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Max ScherzerStarter 1460.86.22 1.3987.148 5.04330480 5.0 4 3
Louis VarlandCloser 6667.21.34 1.08611.989 1.21110024 1.2 0 1
Tyler RogersSetup Man 6861.01.92 1.2625.336 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Spencer MilesMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4580.93.00 1.1379.081 1.10000317 1.1 3 0

Game Summary

TOR wins 5-4


Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals

CHW 75-71 (4.69 RPG / 4.42 RA)
4 - 6
STL 72-75 (4.54 RPG / 4.63 RA)
WINNER: STL wins 6-4 TARGET: CHW 4 - 6 STL (STL) Confidence: 59.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CHW20000002047
STL10102002x610

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff-5
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

STL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs6.2
Avg Allowed6.0
Run Diff2
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak3L

CHW Season Quality

Record75-71
Win%0.514
Run Diff39
RD/Game0.267

STL Season Quality

Record72-75
Win%0.490
Run Diff-12
RD/Game-0.082

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.145; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chase Meidroth2B 139516138 0.267 12510.342 53000 21 0.000 0.233 0.312 0.324 OK
Randal GrichukLF 8718856 0.298 12340.330 55210 01 0.400 0.310 0.348 0.587 OK
Miguel Vargas1B 143533132 0.248 30790.358 44111 01 0.250 0.240 0.340 0.437 OK
Colson Montgomery3B 138521109 0.209 31830.289 44212 00 0.500 0.201 0.267 0.431 OK
Edgar QueroDH 5817835 0.197 3170.260 43000 00 0.000 0.214 0.283 0.290 OK
Brenton DoyleCF 215411 0.204 270.204 44111 03 0.250 0.102 0.153 0.172 OK
Braden MontgomeryRF 7727761 0.220 6370.315 44000 03 0.000 0.211 0.310 0.341 OK
Jake RogersC 11344 0.118 130.211 43100 11 0.333 0.153 0.250 0.263 OK
Luisangel AcuñaSS 7319446 0.237 1120.272 44000 02 0.000 0.153 0.188 0.189 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 44 312 0.206

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
José Fermín3B 10229172 0.247 6380.307 55111 03 0.200 0.251 0.305 0.359 OK
Iván HerreraDH 143545135 0.248 15620.355 44110 01 0.250 0.271 0.334 0.394 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 140545153 0.281 26950.338 42000 20 0.000 0.154 0.218 0.291 OK
Alec Burleson1B 142543153 0.282 221010.348 44212 01 0.500 0.251 0.327 0.421 OK
Joshua BaezLF 248020 0.250 7160.299 44111 01 0.250 0.261 0.297 0.562 OK
Leonardo BernalC 93610 0.278 2100.350 44100 02 0.250 0.237 0.297 0.399 OK
Thomas Saggese2B 3711230 0.268 4120.328 44100 01 0.250 0.288 0.352 0.464 OK
Masyn WinnSS 118428101 0.236 5510.308 43111 10 0.333 0.212 0.282 0.335 OK
Nathan ChurchCF 11438194 0.247 10480.290 44211 00 0.500 0.259 0.297 0.351 OK
TEAM TOTALS 373410 66 39 0.294

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Anthony KayStarter 29136.14.63 1.4117.7116 5.054436102 5.0 6 4
Grant TaylorCloser 4151.92.60 1.11813.276 1.10000218 1.1 2 0
Sean NewcombSetup Man 4660.22.84 1.2469.664 1.11000020 1.1 0 0
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6052.82.90 1.3079.455 0.14220116 0.1 1 2

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Matthew LiberatoreStarter 28134.85.74 1.5139.6144 5.03221788 5.0 7 2
Riley O'BrienCloser 6055.24.24 1.3419.357 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
George SorianoSetup Man 6653.65.21 1.60410.462 0.20001212 0.2 2 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6348.65.00 1.60511.160 1.04220225 1.0 2 2
Justin BruihlMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6459.84.21 1.5897.550 1.10001131 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

STL wins 6-4


Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers

CIN 69-77 (4.18 RPG / 5.02 RA)
6 - 8
MIL 91-56 (5.05 RPG / 3.88 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 8-6 TARGET: CIN 6 - 8 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CIN120001002611
MIL30210200x810

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed6.0
Run Diff-12
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak3L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.9
Avg Allowed6.4
Run Diff-5
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak3W

CIN Season Quality

Record69-77
Win%0.473
Run Diff-122
RD/Game-0.836

MIL Season Quality

Record91-56
Win%0.619
Run Diff172
RD/Game1.170

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.5263; margin adjustment: 2.4421; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Héctor RodríguezRF 289825 0.255 5120.311 55000 01 0.000 0.253 0.297 0.416 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 124488140 0.287 26700.366 54111 10 0.250 0.329 0.399 0.749 OK
Sal Stewart1B 143548146 0.266 301040.336 53100 20 0.333 0.255 0.324 0.410 OK
JJ BledayLF 11440789 0.219 22550.328 55000 01 0.000 0.175 0.280 0.319 OK
Tyler StephensonC 11336692 0.251 15520.333 55212 01 0.400 0.174 0.269 0.312 OK
Eugenio SuárezDH 11038481 0.211 22630.305 55310 00 0.600 0.216 0.309 0.460 OK
Carlos JorgeCF 4132 0.154 000.154 43112 01 0.333 0.180 0.190 0.254 OK
Matt McLain2B 11639575 0.190 15390.281 44111 01 0.250 0.110 0.194 0.249 OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B 6620031 0.155 580.214 44210 00 0.500 0.156 0.219 0.248 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423811 66 35 0.289

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson ChourioLF 110460135 0.293 23650.350 44212 02 0.500 0.350 0.389 0.604 OK
Brice Turang2B 133518137 0.264 17870.358 43111 11 0.333 0.279 0.382 0.416 OK
William ContrerasC 133515139 0.270 15760.340 44313 01 0.750 0.297 0.362 0.535 OK
Andrew VaughnDH 9427385 0.311 6420.389 44010 01 0.000 0.315 0.385 0.451 OK
Jake Bauers1B 125420112 0.267 23760.390 44110 01 0.250 0.192 0.351 0.385 OK
Luis LaraRF 4414738 0.259 1220.325 44110 00 0.250 0.259 0.324 0.343 OK
Cooper PrattSS 5718047 0.261 3280.327 44110 00 0.250 0.236 0.306 0.326 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 123403102 0.253 8500.341 44112 00 0.250 0.250 0.320 0.395 OK
Joey Ortiz3B 10532181 0.252 8410.314 33000 02 0.000 0.266 0.323 0.395 OK
TEAM TOTALS 353410 88 18 0.294

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew AbbottStarter 29149.34.52 1.4537.2120 4.27661384 4.2 3 5
Emilio PagánCloser 3835.54.06 1.0999.437 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Luis MeySetup Man 2225.84.53 1.58914.341 1.02220213 1.0 2 2
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 7159.02.90 1.50810.871 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4035.16.41 1.7099.035 0.1000004 0.1 0 0

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dustin MayStarter 622.46.43 1.5628.421 4.27441395 4.2 3 4
Trevor MegillCloser 5654.51.98 0.88110.463 2.10001033 2.1 0 0
Abner UribeSetup Man 5447.92.25 1.08610.053 1.01000216 1.0 2 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6973.13.57 1.50513.4109 1.03221026 1.0 0 2

Game Summary

MIL wins 8-6


Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins

CLE 74-73 (4.07 RPG / 4.18 RA)
4 - 5
MIN 69-77 (4.62 RPG / 4.99 RA)
WINNER: MIN wins 5-4 TARGET: CLE 4 - 5 MIN (MIN) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CLE00002110045
MIN02100101x59

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed5.5
Run Diff-14
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.4
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff7
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CLE Season Quality

Record74-73
Win%0.503
Run Diff-16
RD/Game-0.109

MIN Season Quality

Record69-77
Win%0.473
Run Diff-53
RD/Game-0.363

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0888; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanCF 132479131 0.273 2270.368 42000 20 0.000 0.276 0.356 0.348 OK
Chase DeLauterDH 117440131 0.298 14610.367 44113 01 0.250 0.314 0.376 0.509 OK
José Ramírez3B 10941096 0.234 11480.326 44000 01 0.000 0.198 0.276 0.304 OK
Jo AdellRF 3312129 0.240 4240.324 44000 01 0.000 0.231 0.265 0.359 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 10738994 0.242 11490.333 44000 01 0.000 0.265 0.345 0.462 OK
Nathaniel Lowe1B 3010323 0.223 5210.282 44210 01 0.500 0.253 0.330 0.519 OK
Angel MartínezLF 9534384 0.245 14500.284 43111 11 0.333 0.248 0.276 0.415 OK
Austin HedgesC 6719449 0.253 5230.323 44000 01 0.000 0.218 0.290 0.321 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 137482120 0.249 13610.306 33110 01 0.333 0.235 0.273 0.385 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35325 44 38 0.156

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Luke KeaschallRF 136471129 0.274 9440.367 44112 00 0.250 0.272 0.350 0.388 OK
Kaelen CulpepperSS 2810229 0.284 3100.333 44011 01 0.000 0.236 0.272 0.341 OK
Ryan JeffersC 7827875 0.270 14540.366 44211 02 0.500 0.253 0.336 0.505 OK
Josh BellDH 140515132 0.256 19860.319 44100 02 0.250 0.250 0.304 0.443 OK
Kody Clemens2B 128474114 0.241 26740.302 44200 01 0.500 0.235 0.294 0.526 OK
Royce Lewis1B 11140894 0.230 14510.296 43011 02 0.000 0.202 0.263 0.348 OK
Brooks Lee3B 137524130 0.248 23780.295 44100 01 0.250 0.243 0.281 0.405 OK
Austin MartinLF 9328268 0.241 3230.338 32210 10 1.000 0.245 0.323 0.366 OK
Walker JenkinsCF 11344 0.118 150.268 33000 01 0.000 0.139 0.257 0.265 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34329 55 110 0.281

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Parker MessickStarter 28160.72.63 1.0779.7173 6.063319108 6.0 9 3
Cade SmithCloser 6161.52.34 1.10613.995 1.21000024 1.2 0 0
Hunter GaddisSetup Man 5843.53.10 1.35610.149 0.12220110 0.1 1 2

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Taj BradleyStarter 28157.04.01 1.28010.5184 5.23331491 5.2 4 3
Yoendrys GómezCloser 4939.22.76 1.35210.144 1.02110219 1.0 2 1
Jeff HoffmanSetup Man 1310.63.40 1.50914.417 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
A.J. MinterMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1612.20.74 1.0669.613 1.10001121 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

MIN wins 5-4


Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers

COL 55-92 (4.68 RPG / 5.76 RA)
4 - 5
DET 68-79 (4.4 RPG / 4.0 RA)
WINNER: DET wins 5-4 TARGET: COL 4 - 5 DET (DET) Confidence: 54.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
COL00000201145
DET00200030x59

COL Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed5.7
Run Diff-13
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak4L

DET Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed5.5
Run Diff-10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

COL Season Quality

Record55-91
Win%0.377
Run Diff-154
RD/Game-1.055

DET Season Quality

Record67-79
Win%0.459
Run Diff55
RD/Game0.377

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.0596; margin adjustment: 0.445; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyLF 125484142 0.293 15750.335 44111 00 0.250 0.295 0.328 0.472 OK
Connor Norby1B 278523 0.271 3120.367 43000 11 0.000 0.224 0.315 0.377 OK
Cole CarriggCF 7426770 0.262 7390.337 44110 01 0.250 0.253 0.317 0.426 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 126471115 0.244 37780.310 44112 00 0.250 0.185 0.235 0.380 OK
Kyle Karros3B 11335393 0.263 11450.359 43000 11 0.000 0.224 0.302 0.422 OK
Adael Amador2B 123612 0.333 3100.400 44111 02 0.250 0.280 0.339 0.499 OK
Troy JohnstonDH 114364103 0.283 4470.348 44100 00 0.250 0.268 0.331 0.392 OK
Jordan BeckRF 5014027 0.193 1110.250 43000 10 0.000 0.186 0.245 0.276 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 12942291 0.216 10410.263 33000 03 0.000 0.244 0.289 0.331 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35325 44 38 0.156

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigle3B 140538147 0.273 16620.375 55110 01 0.200 0.280 0.377 0.460 OK
Gleyber TorresDH 8532287 0.270 8360.370 53111 20 0.333 0.294 0.382 0.396 OK
Colt Keith1B 13036794 0.256 10340.312 44314 00 0.750 0.250 0.293 0.407 OK
Riley GreeneLF 123450125 0.278 19650.368 43000 10 0.000 0.291 0.376 0.579 OK
Dillon DinglerC 133505125 0.248 26850.308 44000 01 0.000 0.221 0.257 0.372 OK
Max ClarkCF 3612632 0.254 2160.324 44310 00 0.750 0.241 0.300 0.366 OK
John PeckSS 7256 0.240 040.345 42000 20 0.000 0.216 0.276 0.301 OK
Zach McKinstryRF 11234774 0.213 4260.289 44110 01 0.250 0.200 0.260 0.295 OK
Javier Báez2B 5016941 0.243 2170.271 44000 00 0.000 0.233 0.256 0.351 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38339 55 53 0.273

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Mason AdamsStarter 313.24.09 1.66711.617 4.14223291 4.1 2 2
Jordan RomanoCloser 2118.52.92 1.1899.219 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Brennan BernardinoSetup Man 6746.63.09 1.3737.941 0.21000111 0.2 1 0
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4639.77.25 1.7889.542 0.13332021 0.1 0 3
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4027.25.96 1.91211.936 1.20000026 1.2 0 0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Framber ValdezStarter 28155.14.24 1.3866.9119 6.032236106 6.0 6 2
Kenley JansenCloser 4336.43.46 1.20910.944 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Tyler HoltonSetup Man 6358.53.23 1.4538.555 1.11110020 1.1 0 1
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5851.43.68 1.6738.146 0.21110111 0.2 1 1

Game Summary

DET wins 5-4


Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays

HOU 75-73 (4.48 RPG / 4.76 RA)
3 - 5
TB 88-59 (4.52 RPG / 4.13 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 5-3 TARGET: HOU 3 - 5 TB (TB) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
HOU10011000034
TB00000005x57

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TB Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

HOU Season Quality

Record75-72
Win%0.510
Run Diff-40
RD/Game-0.272

TB Season Quality

Record87-59
Win%0.596
Run Diff56
RD/Game0.384

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4817; margin adjustment: 0.2023; applied: True

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jose AltuveDH 119463114 0.246 15440.306 44111 01 0.250 0.250 0.301 0.407 OK
Jeremy PeñaSS 96387105 0.271 17470.324 44100 00 0.250 0.221 0.256 0.358 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 139504129 0.256 19820.357 43111 00 0.333 0.261 0.334 0.416 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 3212323 0.187 4130.248 43100 01 0.333 0.220 0.269 0.356 OK
Yainer DiazC 7728376 0.269 11340.296 44011 01 0.000 0.196 0.220 0.312 OK
Christian Walker1B 140517119 0.230 25800.304 44000 02 0.000 0.217 0.279 0.380 OK
Cam SmithRF 134461101 0.219 20530.284 44000 02 0.000 0.260 0.318 0.590 OK
Taylor TrammellLF 8122647 0.208 7210.287 42000 21 0.000 0.190 0.260 0.331 OK
Nick Allen2B 5513136 0.275 2130.319 33000 01 0.000 0.285 0.335 0.378 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35314 33 29 0.129

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 140557171 0.307 22800.373 44111 00 0.250 0.295 0.343 0.454 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 141532148 0.278 19860.361 43000 11 0.000 0.172 0.253 0.302 OK
Junior Caminero3B 145554155 0.280 39930.367 44110 01 0.250 0.263 0.345 0.496 OK
Liam HicksC 298827 0.307 4170.398 43000 12 0.000 0.193 0.269 0.322 OK
Victor Mesa Jr.RF 5819046 0.242 12270.300 44112 02 0.250 0.202 0.260 0.392 OK
Chandler SimpsonLF 134520160 0.308 0310.336 44112 00 0.250 0.281 0.315 0.327 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 12241184 0.204 14450.287 44100 01 0.250 0.183 0.261 0.289 OK
Richie Palacios2B 10631171 0.228 9450.324 32110 11 0.500 0.242 0.327 0.487 OK
Jorge MateoSS 16507 0.140 170.185 33100 01 0.333 0.180 0.220 0.272 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34317 55 39 0.226

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Miguel UllolaStarter 57.03.86 0.85712.910 3.02222760 3.0 7 2
Josh HaderCloser 4140.40.67 0.59412.054 2.10000029 2.1 0 0
Bryan AbreuSetup Man 5952.43.95 1.45012.975 2.25331253 2.2 2 3

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Drew RasmussenStarter 27152.42.89 0.9129.2156 6.043317104 6.0 7 3
Bryan BakerCloser 5754.61.48 0.8799.960 1.00000223 1.0 2 0
Kevin KellySetup Man 6557.52.97 1.0618.554 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Tyler WellsMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1215.31.76 0.7199.416 1.00000013 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

TB wins 5-3


Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox

KC 66-82 (4.27 RPG / 4.86 RA)
4 - 6
BOS 80-68 (4.42 RPG / 3.87 RA)
WINNER: BOS wins 6-4 TARGET: KC 4 - 6 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 65.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
KC03000010045
BOS000210003611

KC Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed5.5
Run Diff-15
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

KC Season Quality

Record65-82
Win%0.442
Run Diff-88
RD/Game-0.599

BOS Season Quality

Record80-67
Win%0.544
Run Diff82
RD/Game0.558

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.015; margin adjustment: 0.4263; applied: True

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carter JensenC 134475109 0.229 23690.319 43000 12 0.000 0.224 0.310 0.504 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 127497140 0.282 18530.358 44111 03 0.250 0.255 0.326 0.454 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 9936688 0.240 11470.331 44110 02 0.250 0.210 0.303 0.374 OK
Salvador PerezDH 136526121 0.230 19710.275 44000 00 0.000 0.235 0.263 0.380 OK
Michael Massey2B 114367102 0.278 11450.313 44000 01 0.000 0.255 0.294 0.379 OK
John RaveRF 3510324 0.233 5110.301 43000 11 0.000 0.249 0.315 0.493 OK
Nick Loftin3B 10533679 0.235 7420.319 44110 01 0.250 0.225 0.295 0.358 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 8425958 0.224 6240.272 33213 01 0.667 0.190 0.233 0.265 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 12940790 0.221 6400.323 33000 00 0.000 0.161 0.272 0.246 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34325 44 211 0.156

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Roman AnthonyLF 4115737 0.236 490.344 54310 10 0.750 0.221 0.307 0.421 OK
Mickey GasperDH 5316343 0.264 8220.370 53211 10 0.667 0.219 0.324 0.442 OK
Adley RutschmanC 196913 0.188 490.253 55113 00 0.200 0.237 0.292 0.496 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 141536138 0.257 24710.338 44000 01 0.000 0.248 0.338 0.473 OK
Trevor StorySS 5120648 0.233 3230.263 44100 01 0.250 0.258 0.281 0.357 OK
Nick Sogard1B 5018449 0.266 4160.362 43110 10 0.333 0.273 0.363 0.400 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 134456110 0.241 12590.320 44211 01 0.500 0.229 0.310 0.328 OK
Jarren DuranCF 135512105 0.205 20630.263 44111 02 0.250 0.216 0.272 0.385 OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B 4613436 0.269 2160.342 43000 10 0.000 0.243 0.324 0.332 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393411 66 45 0.324

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Seth LugoStarter 29156.25.13 1.4666.9119 5.083333111 5.0 3 4
Steven CruzCloser 5250.04.50 1.38010.458 1.00001017 1.0 0 1
Nate PearsonSetup Man 1919.30.47 0.8818.919 1.10000123 1.1 1 1
Craig KimbrelMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1110.33.50 1.3597.08 0.23330117 0.2 1 0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sonny GrayStarter 26149.52.71 1.1718.1135 6.033318101 6.0 8 3
Aroldis ChapmanCloser 4948.21.49 1.05812.165 1.01111226 1.0 2 1
Erik MillerSetup Man 1313.10.69 0.99216.524 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4947.31.90 0.84610.354 1.00000013 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

BOS wins 6-4


Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals

LAA 56-91 (4.04 RPG / 4.54 RA)
4 - 5
WAS 68-81 (5.1 RPG / 5.09 RA)
WINNER: WAS wins 5-4 TARGET: LAA 4 - 5 WAS (WAS) Confidence: 57.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
LAA10000003047
WAS00000140x58

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2W

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed5.8
Run Diff-20
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak7L

LAA Season Quality

Record56-90
Win%0.384
Run Diff-73
RD/Game-0.500

WAS Season Quality

Record67-81
Win%0.453
Run Diff0
RD/Game0.000

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2132; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 141562137 0.244 25720.324 44100 01 0.250 0.297 0.346 0.564 OK
Mike TroutCF 127464113 0.244 20510.375 44211 01 0.500 0.259 0.349 0.396 OK
Wade MecklerLF 7624272 0.298 3250.368 43111 10 0.333 0.302 0.371 0.397 OK
Vaughn Grissom1B 10036489 0.245 10590.305 44112 01 0.250 0.239 0.288 0.373 OK
Moisés BallesterosC 3111724 0.205 280.250 44000 00 0.000 0.244 0.298 0.384 OK
Christian Moore2B 238315 0.181 170.242 44000 00 0.000 0.188 0.239 0.274 OK
Josh LoweRF 9327156 0.207 11280.272 43000 10 0.000 0.197 0.281 0.353 OK
Denzer Guzman3B 6422551 0.227 7250.269 44210 01 0.500 0.245 0.282 0.387 OK
Adam FrazierDH 5212028 0.233 1100.298 44000 01 0.000 0.222 0.265 0.330 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36347 44 25 0.206

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 121463123 0.266 30740.392 43112 11 0.333 0.253 0.372 0.444 OK
Andrés ChaparroDH 6616642 0.253 10350.340 44210 00 0.500 0.261 0.324 0.503 OK
Brady House3B 8028569 0.242 10430.298 44212 01 0.500 0.166 0.216 0.286 OK
CJ AbramsSS 139529137 0.259 30950.337 44000 01 0.000 0.193 0.260 0.380 OK
Dylan CrewsLF 9335279 0.224 11390.295 44111 03 0.250 0.242 0.295 0.418 OK
Yohandy Morales1B 7196 0.316 220.316 44000 02 0.000 0.205 0.216 0.479 OK
Harry FordC 278316 0.193 3100.302 43110 11 0.333 0.193 0.294 0.351 OK
Jorbit Vivas2B 10327566 0.240 3250.331 43000 11 0.000 0.244 0.337 0.345 OK
Jacob YoungCF 11738997 0.249 10430.309 33100 01 0.333 0.250 0.297 0.355 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35328 55 311 0.250

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Yusei KikuchiStarter 1048.35.03 1.4919.149 5.00003787 5.0 7 0
Ben JoyceCloser 1210.43.46 1.05812.114 1.13110138 1.1 1 1
Ryan WatsonSetup Man 138.93.03 1.46113.113 0.14440016 0.1 0 4
Tayler SaucedoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2112.04.50 1.50015.020 1.11000320 1.1 3 0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cade CavalliStarter 30156.13.17 1.19810.7185 5.23111585 5.2 5 1
Clayton BeeterCloser 4842.14.70 1.5209.846 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Erik TolmanSetup Man 77.42.43 1.35110.99 1.14330029 1.1 0 3
Brad LordMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 3669.24.16 1.3739.170 1.00001017 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

WAS wins 5-4


Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins

LAD 89-57 (4.99 RPG / 3.83 RA)
6 - 4
MIA 72-75 (4.45 RPG / 4.4 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 6-4 TARGET: LAD 6 - 4 MIA (LAD) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
LAD10000500066
MIA00110001149

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs6.4
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff21
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak7W

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs6.0
Avg Allowed6.8
Run Diff-8
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak3L

LAD Season Quality

Record89-57
Win%0.610
Run Diff169
RD/Game1.158

MIA Season Quality

Record72-75
Win%0.490
Run Diff7
RD/Game0.048

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.1406; margin adjustment: -0.4791; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Tommy EdmanCF 6523762 0.262 6320.337 44000 00 0.000 0.264 0.313 0.412 OK
Mookie BettsSS 106418105 0.251 19600.310 44211 01 0.500 0.288 0.340 0.536 OK
Max Muncy3B 132432108 0.250 27700.347 44000 03 0.000 0.279 0.366 0.548 OK
Will SmithC 5819647 0.240 7270.330 44000 01 0.000 0.247 0.335 0.427 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 108382103 0.270 13570.335 43110 10 0.333 0.390 0.450 0.588 OK
Enrique Hernández1B 276314 0.222 390.279 44112 00 0.250 0.233 0.292 0.428 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 134480108 0.225 13600.318 43111 10 0.333 0.210 0.298 0.389 OK
Player-800543DH 000 0.000 000.000 44112 02 0.250 0.253 0.325 0.430
Alex Freeland2B 7921247 0.222 3200.307 43010 11 0.000 0.186 0.297 0.272 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36336 66 38 0.182

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Heriberto HernándezLF 11338687 0.225 24630.307 55000 02 0.000 0.193 0.266 0.392 OK
Otto LopezSS 143571173 0.303 10660.342 55310 01 0.600 0.281 0.320 0.407 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 137469105 0.224 9360.340 43111 10 0.333 0.308 0.377 0.404 OK
Javier Sanoja3B 118401117 0.292 8570.326 43000 01 0.000 0.296 0.326 0.460 OK
Agustín RamírezC 5518340 0.219 3180.304 44000 01 0.000 0.192 0.264 0.300 OK
Kyle Stowers1B 10940298 0.244 19600.332 44111 00 0.250 0.215 0.286 0.432 OK
Esteury RuizRF 7617741 0.232 6120.315 44200 00 0.500 0.182 0.236 0.319 OK
Jared Serna2B 483 0.375 020.400 44100 01 0.250 0.332 0.399 0.561 OK
Griffin ConineDH 7523159 0.255 15360.348 44112 01 0.250 0.248 0.331 0.454 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38369 44 17 0.250

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Blake SnellStarter 632.01.97 1.09412.143 5.24221687 5.2 6 2
Tanner ScottCloser 6353.22.88 1.07112.272 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Edgardo HenriquezSetup Man 5950.43.04 1.11112.369 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
Brock StewartMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2219.12.83 1.0999.019 1.12110021 1.1 0 1

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryan GustoStarter 2069.34.42 1.4728.162 4.12112580 4.1 5 1
Calvin FaucherCloser 6253.44.21 1.53611.367 1.04551229 1.0 2 5
Tyler ZuberSetup Man 3928.65.98 1.71312.038 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5851.83.65 1.25511.868 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1313.44.70 1.3437.411 1.00000013 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-4


New York Mets @ New York Yankees

NYM 68-79 (4.29 RPG / 4.58 RA)
4 - 6
NYY 85-62 (4.58 RPG / 3.67 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 6-4 TARGET: NYM 4 - 6 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
NYM01010110049
NYY01021020x66

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs6.8
Avg Allowed5.8
Run Diff10
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak4W

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs6.1
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff29
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak3W

NYM Season Quality

Record68-78
Win%0.466
Run Diff-40
RD/Game-0.274

NYY Season Quality

Record84-62
Win%0.575
Run Diff131
RD/Game0.897

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9382; margin adjustment: 0.394; applied: True

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Francisco LindorSS 8734780 0.231 18420.312 55111 01 0.200 0.204 0.262 0.450 OK
Juan SotoLF 9333292 0.277 24590.395 43000 11 0.000 0.243 0.346 0.456 OK
Bo Bichette3B 140558149 0.267 16730.317 44100 00 0.250 0.256 0.313 0.399 OK
Mark VientosDH 7624854 0.218 13390.255 44211 00 0.500 0.220 0.253 0.436 OK
Carson BengeRF 136521140 0.269 16540.333 44211 00 0.500 0.239 0.307 0.357 OK
Marcus Semien2B 12343597 0.223 14450.289 44100 00 0.250 0.220 0.285 0.316 OK
Christopher Morel1B 9206 0.300 140.364 44111 01 0.250 0.250 0.299 0.428 OK
A.J. EwingCF 10337796 0.255 8350.325 44100 01 0.250 0.280 0.347 0.414 OK
Francisco AlvarezC 9732473 0.225 14350.310 44000 04 0.000 0.208 0.271 0.391 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37369 44 18 0.250

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ben RiceDH 137515132 0.256 35840.354 42000 21 0.000 0.245 0.326 0.416 OK
Cody BellingerLF 117436117 0.268 13640.345 43000 10 0.000 0.293 0.354 0.464 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 6122155 0.249 17380.372 44110 01 0.250 0.246 0.350 0.440 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 3211735 0.299 7150.336 42110 21 0.500 0.290 0.317 0.578 OK
Spencer JonesCF 7020853 0.255 9330.330 43113 01 0.333 0.318 0.390 0.503 OK
George Lombard Jr.SS 2910023 0.230 3110.288 43000 10 0.000 0.205 0.260 0.346 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 10229263 0.216 10330.281 44110 01 0.250 0.221 0.287 0.341 OK
Austin WellsC 10930455 0.181 10280.281 44112 00 0.250 0.149 0.280 0.261 OK
Anthony Volpe2B 5417243 0.250 2220.335 44111 02 0.250 0.251 0.326 0.368 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36296 66 67 0.207

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nolan McLeanStarter 28159.83.10 1.15810.1179 6.052246119 6.0 6 2
Kodai SengaCloser 2755.27.50 1.68511.168 0.1011014 0.1 1 1
Daniel DuarteSetup Man 2325.42.48 0.9069.928 1.11332034 1.1 0 3
Nathan LavenderMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1510.62.55 1.32114.417 0.1000004 0.1 0 0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Carlos RodónStarter 1362.63.16 1.19810.170 5.262205101 5.2 5 2
David BednarCloser 5857.72.81 1.09210.970 1.02221223 1.0 2 2
Brent HeadrickSetup Man 7458.92.29 1.44313.991 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Paul BlackburnMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5670.71.91 1.1608.466 1.10000119 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 6-4


Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

PHI 82-65 (4.48 RPG / 4.23 RA)
3 - 4
ATL 86-62 (4.55 RPG / 3.84 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 4-3 TARGET: PHI 3 - 4 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 52.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
PHI01020000038
ATL04000000x49

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

PHI Season Quality

Record82-65
Win%0.558
Run Diff37
RD/Game0.252

ATL Season Quality

Record86-61
Win%0.585
Run Diff110
RD/Game0.748

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2527; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 139526126 0.240 43910.351 44000 00 0.000 0.224 0.323 0.505 OK
Trea TurnerSS 139581141 0.243 19560.292 44111 01 0.250 0.225 0.265 0.409 OK
Bryce HarperRF 145512138 0.270 27820.387 44000 02 0.000 0.257 0.373 0.442 OK
Luis Arraez2B 3313139 0.298 2140.319 44210 00 0.500 0.300 0.334 0.393 OK
Alec Bohm1B 137512126 0.246 15790.309 44100 01 0.250 0.239 0.299 0.392 OK
Edmundo Sosa3B 7521451 0.238 7420.275 44000 03 0.000 0.242 0.261 0.409 OK
Bryan De La CruzLF 225619 0.339 2120.381 44212 01 0.500 0.321 0.357 0.470 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 10736779 0.215 10460.288 43100 01 0.333 0.183 0.249 0.291 OK
Derek HillCF 3910729 0.271 6190.297 44100 03 0.250 0.185 0.217 0.361 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36358 33 012 0.229

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Drake BaldwinDH 123481133 0.277 23710.354 44211 01 0.500 0.272 0.335 0.445 OK
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 9335389 0.252 16450.346 44000 01 0.000 0.245 0.317 0.442 OK
Matt Olson1B 146561139 0.248 36790.322 43000 10 0.000 0.216 0.286 0.388 OK
Michael Harris IICF 140530153 0.289 24800.314 44212 00 0.500 0.223 0.250 0.379 OK
Mauricio DubónSS 138512136 0.266 11660.309 44110 00 0.250 0.254 0.292 0.370 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 146552139 0.252 21680.307 44000 00 0.000 0.155 0.214 0.278 OK
Austin Riley3B 144509114 0.224 16670.295 44100 02 0.250 0.229 0.279 0.370 OK
Mike YastrzemskiLF 11931671 0.225 9330.304 33211 00 0.667 0.158 0.232 0.264 OK
Sean MurphyC 227415 0.203 380.262 33100 00 0.333 0.197 0.264 0.372 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34339 44 14 0.273

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Aaron NolaStarter 29151.54.87 1.3999.6162 5.294413102 5.2 3 4
Jhoan DuranCloser 5553.41.52 0.99312.675 1.10000110 1.1 1 0
Jonathan BowlanSetup Man 5649.83.43 1.08412.368 1.00000013 1.0 0 0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chris SaleStarter 25148.62.12 1.01611.1184 6.172208112 6.1 8 2
Raisel IglesiasCloser 5351.92.95 1.2149.756 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Dylan LeeSetup Man 6554.32.65 0.93912.475 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Didier FuentesMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5260.32.54 1.14412.584 0.2000028 0.2 2 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 4-3


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs

PIT 74-74 (4.8 RPG / 4.63 RA)
4 - 5
CHC 82-66 (5.35 RPG / 4.42 RA)
WINNER: CHC wins 5-4 TARGET: PIT 4 - 5 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
PIT001010110410
CHC001001102510

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak4W

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.5
Avg Allowed5.4
Run Diff1
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak4L

PIT Season Quality

Record74-73
Win%0.503
Run Diff36
RD/Game0.245

CHC Season Quality

Record81-66
Win%0.551
Run Diff128
RD/Game0.871

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2852; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Konnor GriffinSS 6424865 0.262 5270.320 54111 00 0.250 0.233 0.281 0.342 OK
Oneil CruzCF 8332389 0.276 18620.362 54200 10 0.500 0.313 0.374 0.510 OK
Bryan ReynoldsDH 144533142 0.266 16690.372 55212 01 0.400 0.277 0.368 0.453 OK
Rafael Flores Jr.1B 3210726 0.243 8190.308 55100 01 0.200 0.257 0.314 0.502 OK
Esmerlyn ValdezRF 6822652 0.230 14390.347 55310 01 0.600 0.222 0.340 0.477 OK
Nick Gonzales2B 132501151 0.301 4570.363 43000 11 0.000 0.294 0.341 0.377 OK
Jake MangumLF 110386111 0.288 4300.340 44000 00 0.000 0.286 0.324 0.377 OK
Jared Triolo3B 9829674 0.250 3280.324 43000 13 0.000 0.265 0.329 0.337 OK
Henry DavisC 7823539 0.166 9350.250 44111 00 0.250 0.163 0.226 0.313 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413710 44 37 0.270

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 145558158 0.283 41970.378 54000 11 0.000 0.278 0.348 0.552 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 128486131 0.270 24800.370 55211 01 0.400 0.226 0.335 0.396 OK
Michael Busch1B 143542128 0.236 17700.345 54100 10 0.250 0.203 0.306 0.342 OK
Alex Bregman3B 143566148 0.261 24820.351 55112 02 0.200 0.255 0.337 0.422 OK
Ian HappLF 137496109 0.220 23650.324 43100 12 0.333 0.200 0.307 0.344 OK
Nico HoernerSS 142566151 0.267 8650.317 44111 01 0.250 0.277 0.319 0.362 OK
Michael ConfortoDH 9522755 0.242 14390.331 44000 03 0.000 0.279 0.362 0.532 OK
Pedro Ramirez2B 6419351 0.264 5280.321 44210 00 0.500 0.209 0.264 0.377 OK
Carson KellyC 10334790 0.259 10530.336 43211 11 0.667 0.245 0.310 0.383 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403610 55 411 0.278

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Wilber DotelStarter 1631.52.86 1.1759.734 5.04112795 5.0 7 2
Mason MontgomeryCloser 6254.22.82 1.14415.895 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
Luke WeaverSetup Man 1210.46.06 1.63512.114 1.02110125 1.0 1 2
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6156.22.88 1.10311.471 1.22222239 1.0 2 0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shota ImanagaStarter 28153.33.99 1.1428.9152 5.162225105 5.1 5 2
Jacob WebbCloser 6355.63.72 1.38510.867 1.12110126 1.1 1 1
Trent ThorntonSetup Man 4640.83.75 1.3736.831 1.02111123 1.0 1 1
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1410.27.94 1.96111.513 1.10000017 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 5-4


San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants

SD 78-68 (4.24 RPG / 4.12 RA)
5 - 4
SF 63-85 (4.22 RPG / 4.67 RA)
WINNER: SD wins 5-4 TARGET: SD 5 - 4 SF (SD) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
SD021001100511
SF00003100047

SD Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak4W

SF Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.7
Avg Allowed5.5
Run Diff2
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak3W

SD Season Quality

Record78-68
Win%0.534
Run Diff17
RD/Game0.116

SF Season Quality

Record62-85
Win%0.422
Run Diff-72
RD/Game-0.490

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4967; margin adjustment: -0.2086; applied: True

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.2B 142566161 0.284 20710.349 55211 01 0.400 0.293 0.352 0.464 OK
Jake Cronenworth1B 9231866 0.208 5270.292 55210 01 0.400 0.186 0.258 0.282 OK
Manny Machado3B 142526118 0.224 26800.314 55211 00 0.400 0.270 0.361 0.471 OK
Luis CampusanoDH 6017650 0.284 7270.382 55111 00 0.200 0.283 0.367 0.464 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 142552135 0.245 24790.295 55000 00 0.000 0.277 0.314 0.580 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 139472103 0.218 11520.320 44212 00 0.500 0.215 0.319 0.283 OK
Samad TaylorLF 3310934 0.312 1110.390 43100 10 0.333 0.258 0.327 0.349 OK
Dustin HarrisRF 9289 0.321 010.321 43100 10 0.333 0.254 0.300 0.320 OK
Freddy FerminC 7221441 0.192 4170.265 43000 10 0.000 0.143 0.217 0.225 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413811 55 32 0.289

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jonah CoxCF 379426 0.277 4110.313 55112 01 0.200 0.256 0.292 0.403 OK
Rafael DeversDH 145543141 0.260 34910.342 43111 11 0.333 0.276 0.362 0.588 OK
Bryce Eldridge1B 10135996 0.267 16520.362 44110 01 0.250 0.276 0.372 0.471 OK
Osleivis Basabe2B 3311123 0.207 5120.258 43000 11 0.000 0.203 0.243 0.358 OK
Turner HillLF 206317 0.270 0120.364 44000 02 0.000 0.255 0.343 0.353 OK
Shay Whitcomb3B 14519 0.176 150.176 44211 01 0.500 0.195 0.202 0.327 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 131498141 0.283 8530.326 44100 01 0.250 0.231 0.269 0.329 OK
Andrew KniznerC 16416 0.146 110.222 43000 12 0.000 0.161 0.216 0.271 OK
Christian KossSS 5115435 0.227 490.265 44100 00 0.250 0.291 0.324 0.473 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 44 310 0.206

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Robbie RayStarter 628.24.79 1.5966.420 5.04332689 5.0 6 3
Mason MillerCloser 5858.31.23 0.87517.4113 1.01110116 1.0 1 1
Adrian MorejonSetup Man 6869.83.22 1.21812.496 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Bradgley RodriguezMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6056.72.06 1.12911.472 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Yuki MatsuiMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4649.32.37 1.31811.362 1.01001120 1.0 1 0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Anthony MolinaStarter 314.11.91 0.7098.313 5.07442292 5.0 2 4
Dylan SmithCloser 3529.63.65 1.58812.541 1.13110024 1.1 0 1
Trent HarrisSetup Man 1415.32.94 1.30712.421 1.10001021 1.1 0 0
Carson SeymourMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1721.26.37 1.8877.618 1.11000020 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

SD wins 5-4


Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics

SEA 69-78 (3.95 RPG / 4.46 RA)
7 - 6
OAK 59-88 (4.36 RPG / 5.63 RA)
WINNER: SEA wins 7-6 TARGET: SEA 7 - 6 OAK (SEA) Confidence: 50.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
SEA100001401712
OAK20010003068

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff-2
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak2W

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

SEA Season Quality

Record69-78
Win%0.469
Run Diff-74
RD/Game-0.503

OAK Season Quality

Record59-88
Win%0.401
Run Diff-187
RD/Game-1.272

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5142; margin adjustment: -0.216; applied: True

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
J.P. CrawfordSS 10135277 0.219 10330.341 55111 03 0.200 0.229 0.346 0.320 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 139514140 0.272 22670.372 55210 02 0.400 0.267 0.345 0.441 OK
Dominic CanzoneRF 129418106 0.254 21660.322 55214 00 0.400 0.254 0.309 0.454 OK
Cal RaleighC 11139873 0.183 21590.295 55211 01 0.400 0.245 0.334 0.425 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 135539129 0.239 21640.297 44000 03 0.000 0.216 0.258 0.378 OK
Josh Naylor1B 137535142 0.265 10490.322 44000 01 0.000 0.229 0.276 0.297 OK
Taylor WardDH 24789 0.115 050.216 44211 00 0.500 0.117 0.249 0.184 OK
Cole Young2B 145529131 0.248 16600.311 44210 00 0.500 0.262 0.312 0.378 OK
Weston Wilson3B 369517 0.179 380.257 43110 00 0.333 0.119 0.205 0.197 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403912 77 010 0.308

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Henry BolteCF 10035799 0.277 10330.355 55212 00 0.400 0.283 0.350 0.447 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 127426114 0.268 8530.313 55100 01 0.200 0.265 0.298 0.368 OK
Zack Gelof3B 9233885 0.251 17440.316 54211 00 0.500 0.209 0.261 0.394 OK
Lawrence ButlerRF 13241493 0.225 13520.311 54110 11 0.250 0.199 0.266 0.344 OK
Max MuncyDH 7724557 0.233 9290.300 44011 00 0.000 0.256 0.314 0.435 OK
Donovan WaltonSS 419521 0.221 3110.398 43000 11 0.000 0.259 0.361 0.452 OK
Tommy White1B 4115639 0.250 280.267 44112 01 0.250 0.236 0.254 0.309 OK
Carlos CortesLF 10830980 0.259 9400.324 43110 10 0.333 0.258 0.308 0.400 OK
Jonah HeimC 8228358 0.205 12340.261 43000 12 0.000 0.184 0.237 0.331 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40358 66 46 0.229

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
George KirbyStarter 27155.64.28 1.3757.7133 5.253312102 5.2 2 3
Andrés MuñozCloser 5651.33.86 1.18914.985 1.10000121 1.1 1 0
José A. FerrerSetup Man 6551.54.37 1.6128.448 1.02333131 1.0 1 3
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6752.34.65 1.74011.064 1.01000216 1.0 2 0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jeffrey SpringsStarter 26125.86.22 1.4947.4104 4.25440576 4.2 5 3
Elvis AlvaradoCloser 4841.74.75 1.43912.357 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
Hogan HarrisSetup Man 6752.74.10 1.74614.283 1.02220319 1.0 3 2
Luis MedinaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5061.23.38 1.45412.484 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Scott BlewettMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1724.02.62 1.3759.024 1.03000022 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

SEA wins 7-6


Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

TEX 72-75 (4.15 RPG / 4.43 RA)
6 - 4
ARI 78-69 (4.41 RPG / 4.41 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 6-4 TARGET: TEX 6 - 4 ARI (TEX) Confidence: 56.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
TEX015000000613
ARI00121000046

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff10
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs2.5
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-11
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

TEX Season Quality

Record72-75
Win%0.490
Run Diff-41
RD/Game-0.279

ARI Season Quality

Record78-69
Win%0.531
Run Diff-1
RD/Game-0.007

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0851; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc PedersonDH 13136786 0.234 26520.324 53210 20 0.667 0.228 0.307 0.537 OK
Corey SeagerSS 8632173 0.227 17400.322 54111 11 0.250 0.240 0.317 0.509 OK
Ezequiel Duran3B 136485131 0.270 17780.330 55100 01 0.200 0.252 0.311 0.409 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 141540141 0.261 14580.325 54100 11 0.250 0.241 0.288 0.361 OK
Wyatt LangfordLF 9536187 0.241 16380.330 55211 01 0.400 0.180 0.286 0.348 OK
Evan CarterCF 12535970 0.195 9350.289 55212 01 0.400 0.196 0.271 0.335 OK
Jake Burger1B 139503119 0.237 26830.305 54000 10 0.000 0.203 0.290 0.462 OK
Nicky Lopez2B 7720759 0.285 1230.329 55311 00 0.600 0.340 0.370 0.401 OK
Danny JansenC 5215929 0.182 6200.270 55111 01 0.200 0.219 0.275 0.411 OK
TEAM TOTALS 454013 66 56 0.325

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ildemaro Vargas1B 121428107 0.250 9660.287 44000 00 0.000 0.230 0.262 0.322 OK
Ketel Marte2B 125499125 0.251 22700.317 44111 00 0.250 0.244 0.305 0.404 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 116418125 0.299 12700.377 44000 01 0.000 0.184 0.271 0.314 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 142507127 0.250 9500.358 43000 11 0.000 0.233 0.334 0.327 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 141526126 0.240 19610.334 43011 01 0.000 0.154 0.241 0.332 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 137478113 0.236 23690.313 44111 01 0.250 0.241 0.313 0.460 OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.DH 4918037 0.206 2220.251 43100 00 0.333 0.194 0.233 0.286 OK
Jordan LawlarCF 298923 0.258 4100.320 43111 01 0.333 0.239 0.262 0.370 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtLF 7524063 0.262 3220.328 44200 00 0.500 0.246 0.314 0.340 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36326 44 15 0.188

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
MacKenzie GoreStarter 30153.74.63 1.36610.0170 5.05441294 5.0 2 4
Jacob LatzCloser 5059.61.51 0.75510.670 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Jakob JunisSetup Man 4645.62.96 1.2286.935 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1712.13.72 1.73611.215 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
Tyler AlexanderMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6655.83.71 1.4709.056 1.01000216 1.0 2 0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Merrill KellyStarter 26145.15.15 1.4966.199 5.1115514116 5.1 4 5
Brandyn GarciaCloser 3626.82.01 0.78412.136 1.00001021 1.0 0 0
Juan MorilloSetup Man 4840.42.90 1.11412.355 1.00002021 1.0 0 0
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4840.83.09 1.2257.132 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5042.93.36 1.2359.043 0.11001011 0.1 0 0
Taylor ClarkeMiddle Reliever 6255.12.94 0.9986.037 0.1111007 0.1 0 1

Game Summary

TEX wins 6-4