MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

September 8, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
ARI @ KC5 - 35 - 3ARIARIARI wins 5-357%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ MIL4 - 64 - 6MILMILMIL wins 6-454%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CIN @ LAD3 - 93 - 9LADLADLAD wins 9-367%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ BAL5 - 45 - 4CLECLECLE wins 5-451%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
COL @ NYY2 - 82 - 8NYYNYYNYY wins 8-264%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ PHI3 - 23 - 2HOUHOUHOU wins 3-255%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAA @ BOS3 - 43 - 4BOSBOSBOS wins 4-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIN @ DET5 - 65 - 6DETDETDET wins 6-554%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ MIA6 - 56 - 5NYMNYMNYM wins 6-553%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ CHW3 - 43 - 4CHWCHWCHW wins 4-352%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
STL @ SF6 - 56 - 5STLSTLSTL wins 6-553%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ ATL6 - 56 - 5TBTBTB wins 6-552%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TEX @ SEA5 - 45 - 4TEXTEXTEX wins 5-452%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TOR @ OAK5 - 45 - 4TORTORTOR wins 5-456%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
WAS @ SD4 - 54 - 5SDSDSD wins 5-452%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals

ARI 77-68 (4.42 RPG / 4.42 RA)
5 - 3
KC 64-81 (4.28 RPG / 4.9 RA)
WINNER: ARI wins 5-3 TARGET: ARI 5 - 3 KC (ARI) Confidence: 57.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
ARI20012000058
KC00000010234

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff0
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3W

KC Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

ARI Season Quality

Record77-68
Win%0.531
Run Diff0
RD/Game0.000

KC Season Quality

Record64-81
Win%0.441
Run Diff-89
RD/Game-0.614

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5788; margin adjustment: -0.2431; applied: True

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Lars NootbaarDH 257417 0.230 3120.345 44110 02 0.250 0.188 0.302 0.357 OK
Ketel Marte2B 123491123 0.251 22680.316 44111 01 0.250 0.254 0.312 0.440 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 114412124 0.301 12700.379 43000 12 0.000 0.276 0.342 0.451 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 140501126 0.251 9490.359 44110 01 0.250 0.269 0.365 0.358 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 135472111 0.235 22680.309 44213 00 0.500 0.232 0.290 0.395 OK
Tommy TroyCF 237518 0.240 350.321 44000 01 0.000 0.246 0.320 0.428 OK
Tim TawaRF 8125862 0.240 9350.297 44100 01 0.250 0.241 0.303 0.377 OK
Ildemaro Vargas1B 119419105 0.251 9660.288 44000 00 0.000 0.208 0.242 0.297 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtLF 7423763 0.266 3220.330 44211 00 0.500 0.265 0.325 0.370 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36358 55 18 0.229

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carter JensenC 132469108 0.230 22680.317 43000 11 0.000 0.245 0.320 0.517 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 125489138 0.282 17500.358 43000 10 0.000 0.238 0.311 0.408 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 9735987 0.242 11460.333 44112 01 0.250 0.238 0.327 0.435 OK
Salvador PerezDH 134518120 0.232 19710.275 44111 00 0.250 0.293 0.315 0.459 OK
Michael Massey2B 11235999 0.276 11450.310 44110 01 0.250 0.257 0.295 0.396 OK
Nick Loftin3B 10332978 0.237 7420.320 44000 03 0.000 0.225 0.285 0.351 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 12740089 0.222 6400.325 33100 02 0.333 0.110 0.224 0.214 OK
Matthew LugoRF 472 0.286 000.286 33000 01 0.000 0.272 0.283 0.306 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 8225256 0.222 6240.272 33000 01 0.000 0.198 0.245 0.281 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33314 33 210 0.129

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Corbin BurnesStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 1.12110423 1.1 4 1
Brandyn GarciaCloser 3626.82.01 0.78412.136 5.01110369 5.0 3 1
Juan MorilloSetup Man 4840.42.90 1.11412.355 1.10000217 1.1 2 0
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4840.83.09 1.2257.132 1.11112128 1.1 1 1

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael WachaStarter 28174.13.41 1.1207.4143 6.173316110 6.1 6 3
Steven CruzCloser 5149.04.59 1.36710.758 1.00110013 1.0 0 1
Nate PearsonSetup Man 1818.30.49 0.8208.918 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Craig KimbrelMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 109.33.87 1.2906.87 0.1111017 0.1 1 1

Game Summary

ARI wins 5-3


Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers

CHC 81-64 (5.32 RPG / 4.41 RA)
4 - 6
MIL 89-56 (5.03 RPG / 3.87 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 6-4 TARGET: CHC 4 - 6 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CHC30001000049
MIL10000041x612

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs6.8
Avg Allowed5.4
Run Diff14
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed6.5
Run Diff-9
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

CHC Season Quality

Record81-64
Win%0.559
Run Diff131
RD/Game0.903

MIL Season Quality

Record89-56
Win%0.614
Run Diff169
RD/Game1.166

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1107; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 143550156 0.284 41970.378 53000 11 0.000 0.293 0.363 0.696 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 126478130 0.272 24800.372 55000 03 0.000 0.236 0.339 0.409 OK
Alex Bregman3B 141558147 0.263 24820.352 55000 01 0.000 0.297 0.381 0.516 OK
Michael Busch1B 141536127 0.237 17680.343 54211 01 0.500 0.148 0.246 0.290 OK
Nico HoernerSS 140557148 0.266 8640.316 55212 02 0.400 0.279 0.321 0.365 OK
Ian HappLF 135491109 0.222 23640.326 43211 00 0.667 0.145 0.253 0.256 OK
Matt Shaw2B 5614736 0.245 5210.317 44100 02 0.250 0.239 0.314 0.447 OK
Tyrone TaylorDH 195422 0.407 170.458 44000 02 0.000 0.322 0.359 0.559 OK
Miguel AmayaC 6419546 0.236 5230.329 42210 20 1.000 0.227 0.299 0.349 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41359 44 312 0.257

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson ChourioLF 108450128 0.284 21610.343 55310 01 0.600 0.260 0.311 0.436 OK
Brice Turang2B 131511134 0.262 17860.355 54211 10 0.500 0.250 0.349 0.413 OK
Andrew Vaughn1B 9226784 0.315 6420.393 55210 02 0.400 0.301 0.373 0.464 OK
William ContrerasC 131508136 0.268 14730.336 44112 02 0.250 0.229 0.288 0.385 OK
Gary SánchezDH 7620443 0.211 11350.347 43112 11 0.333 0.219 0.347 0.453 OK
Luis LaraRF 4314237 0.261 1210.329 44111 01 0.250 0.258 0.325 0.343 OK
Joey Ortiz3B 10331379 0.252 8410.315 44100 01 0.250 0.267 0.329 0.417 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 121395102 0.258 8500.347 43000 12 0.000 0.284 0.357 0.438 OK
Cooper PrattSS 5517347 0.272 3280.338 44100 01 0.250 0.261 0.336 0.367 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393612 66 311 0.333

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
David PetersonStarter 1256.24.80 1.5308.050 4.07221887 4.0 8 2
Jacob WebbCloser 6254.63.46 1.37410.966 2.00001141 2.0 1 0
Trent ThorntonSetup Man 4439.63.86 1.3896.428 1.03441226 1.0 2 4
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1410.27.94 1.96111.513 1.02000019 1.0 0 0

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob MisiorowskiStarter 26154.31.98 0.79713.2227 6.0433310112 6.0 10 3
Trevor MegillCloser 5554.41.65 0.80910.362 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
Abner UribeSetup Man 5347.72.08 1.0489.852 1.01000020 1.0 0 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6873.03.58 1.50713.4109 1.02000131 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 6-4


Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers

CIN 69-75 (4.22 RPG / 4.97 RA)
3 - 9
LAD 87-57 (4.94 RPG / 3.86 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 9-3 TARGET: CIN 3 - 9 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 67.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CIN10000002034
LAD30003201x913

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs6.0
Avg Allowed6.8
Run Diff-8
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak5W

CIN Season Quality

Record69-75
Win%0.479
Run Diff-108
RD/Game-0.750

LAD Season Quality

Record87-57
Win%0.604
Run Diff155
RD/Game1.076

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.393; margin adjustment: 0.5851; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Dane MyersCF 9024464 0.262 5220.350 55210 00 0.400 0.231 0.314 0.333 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 122481137 0.285 24670.366 53000 21 0.000 0.338 0.407 0.656 OK
Sal Stewart1B 141541144 0.266 301040.337 44112 01 0.250 0.244 0.318 0.409 OK
Tyler StephensonDH 11136390 0.248 15520.328 43100 11 0.333 0.234 0.314 0.412 OK
Eugenio Suárez3B 10938181 0.213 22630.305 44000 02 0.000 0.209 0.297 0.445 OK
JJ BledayLF 11240189 0.222 22550.331 42011 20 0.000 0.203 0.304 0.380 OK
Jose TrevinoC 4013030 0.231 5170.235 44000 01 0.000 0.219 0.228 0.357 OK
Matt McLain2B 11439174 0.189 15390.282 43000 12 0.000 0.155 0.233 0.336 OK
Héctor RodríguezRF 269125 0.275 5120.333 43000 10 0.000 0.273 0.322 0.455 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38314 33 78 0.129

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Tommy EdmanCF 6323162 0.268 6310.340 54113 11 0.250 0.284 0.326 0.437 OK
Mookie BettsSS 104411102 0.248 18580.305 54212 10 0.500 0.269 0.319 0.486 OK
Will SmithC 5619045 0.237 6260.324 55010 02 0.000 0.139 0.244 0.247 OK
Freddie FreemanDH 138517155 0.300 16640.379 54110 11 0.250 0.299 0.388 0.461 OK
Teoscar HernándezRF 10637698 0.261 13540.326 44312 00 0.750 0.296 0.370 0.473 OK
Miguel Rojas2B 8319552 0.267 3200.296 44110 01 0.250 0.140 0.177 0.259 OK
Alex CallLF 6514837 0.250 1190.351 44010 01 0.000 0.196 0.290 0.286 OK
Max Muncy3B 130423105 0.248 26680.348 44310 00 0.750 0.249 0.361 0.439 OK
Enrique Hernández1B 255712 0.211 250.262 44212 01 0.500 0.215 0.268 0.347 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403713 99 37 0.351

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nick LodoloStarter 1782.95.21 1.5567.569 4.06663580 4.0 5 6
Emilio PagánCloser 3835.54.06 1.0999.437 1.22220015 1.2 0 2
Luis MeySetup Man 2024.64.02 1.50413.938 1.12000023 1.1 0 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 7159.02.90 1.50810.871 1.03110222 1.0 2 1

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tarik SkubalStarter 635.23.07 1.19311.043 6.021147110 6.0 7 1
Tanner ScottCloser 6252.22.93 1.07312.170 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Edgardo HenriquezSetup Man 5850.23.05 1.09612.268 1.02222027 1.0 0 2
Brock StewartMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2219.12.83 1.0999.019 1.00001021 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 9-3


Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles

CLE 74-72 (4.06 RPG / 4.14 RA)
5 - 4
BAL 70-76 (4.47 RPG / 4.68 RA)
WINNER: CLE wins 5-4 TARGET: CLE 5 - 4 BAL (CLE) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CLE10000400057
BAL12000001048

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.4
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff-4
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

CLE Season Quality

Record73-72
Win%0.503
Run Diff-16
RD/Game-0.110

BAL Season Quality

Record70-75
Win%0.483
Run Diff-27
RD/Game-0.186

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0933; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanLF 130469128 0.273 2270.369 55210 01 0.400 0.283 0.362 0.355 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 10538393 0.243 10460.331 44111 00 0.250 0.277 0.343 0.442 OK
José Ramírez3B 10740195 0.237 11480.329 43000 11 0.000 0.212 0.288 0.325 OK
Jo AdellDH 3111327 0.239 4230.318 43110 11 0.333 0.235 0.271 0.381 OK
Nathaniel Lowe1B 289622 0.229 4190.278 43000 12 0.000 0.179 0.255 0.357 OK
Angel MartínezRF 9433882 0.243 14500.282 44112 01 0.250 0.233 0.265 0.401 OK
Patrick BaileyC 6218243 0.236 7270.304 44112 00 0.250 0.156 0.235 0.259 OK
Petey HalpinCF 5715030 0.200 390.239 44100 02 0.250 0.158 0.194 0.269 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 135474118 0.249 13590.306 44000 02 0.000 0.244 0.287 0.458 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 55 310 0.206

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson Holliday2B 8728465 0.229 7280.299 55211 00 0.400 0.218 0.274 0.337 OK
Pete Alonso1B 142530142 0.268 33950.361 44100 02 0.250 0.219 0.316 0.412 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 140560123 0.220 21560.303 44111 01 0.250 0.223 0.294 0.379 OK
Coby MayoDH 10934879 0.227 21580.289 44000 02 0.000 0.242 0.290 0.498 OK
Samuel BasalloC 9933076 0.230 17500.297 43000 10 0.000 0.228 0.287 0.375 OK
Dylan BeaversLF 8425964 0.247 6320.319 44000 01 0.000 0.216 0.283 0.344 OK
Blaze Alexander3B 8025377 0.304 4310.359 43112 10 0.333 0.263 0.314 0.365 OK
Colton CowserCF 11229564 0.217 12340.301 44000 01 0.000 0.134 0.221 0.231 OK
Leody TaverasRF 11939084 0.215 8520.286 44310 00 0.750 0.187 0.262 0.308 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37358 44 27 0.229

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tanner BibeeStarter 29163.34.13 1.2067.3132 5.253325103 5.2 5 3
Cade SmithCloser 6060.52.38 1.10713.893 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Hunter GaddisSetup Man 5742.53.18 1.36510.248 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Erik SabrowskiMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5133.73.20 1.33517.967 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
Tim HerrinMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5938.73.95 1.60210.545 0.1100017 0.1 1 0

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon YoungStarter 24132.83.52 1.3557.5110 5.265527109 5.2 7 5
Andrew KittredgeCloser 5140.04.27 1.6008.337 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Rico GarciaSetup Man 6752.52.91 1.02910.662 1.21001128 1.2 1 0
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5935.83.02 1.11710.341 0.2000018 0.2 1 0

Game Summary

CLE wins 5-4


Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees

COL 55-89 (4.74 RPG / 5.72 RA)
2 - 8
NYY 82-62 (4.52 RPG / 3.69 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 8-2 TARGET: COL 2 - 8 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 64.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
COL00100000126
NYY10041002x812

COL Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff17
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

COL Season Quality

Record55-88
Win%0.385
Run Diff-140
RD/Game-0.979

NYY Season Quality

Record81-62
Win%0.566
Run Diff117
RD/Game0.818

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.5653; margin adjustment: 2.5045; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyLF 122471138 0.293 15740.335 44000 01 0.000 0.285 0.324 0.488 OK
Cole CarriggCF 7125769 0.268 7390.342 44000 02 0.000 0.264 0.324 0.453 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 136486146 0.300 15660.390 44211 00 0.500 0.340 0.419 0.541 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 123458114 0.249 36760.316 43100 10 0.333 0.133 0.202 0.271 OK
Mickey MoniakDH 10035689 0.250 22640.286 44100 02 0.250 0.231 0.264 0.454 OK
Kyle Karros3B 11034291 0.266 10440.363 43100 10 0.333 0.223 0.309 0.380 OK
Adael Amador2B 102910 0.345 290.424 44000 01 0.000 0.277 0.347 0.456 OK
Zac VeenRF 203810 0.263 2100.333 43111 12 0.333 0.261 0.331 0.509 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 12741689 0.214 10410.260 44000 01 0.000 0.230 0.272 0.344 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36336 22 39 0.182

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ben RiceDH 134504131 0.260 35840.356 55311 00 0.600 0.319 0.392 0.531 OK
Cody BellingerLF 114425113 0.266 12620.346 54000 12 0.000 0.283 0.344 0.393 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 5921453 0.248 17380.375 55110 01 0.200 0.250 0.361 0.455 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 2910430 0.288 5120.330 55211 00 0.400 0.282 0.312 0.472 OK
Spencer JonesCF 6719949 0.246 9310.317 55110 02 0.200 0.287 0.353 0.508 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 129449104 0.232 19550.309 43211 11 0.667 0.275 0.353 0.447 OK
George Lombard Jr.SS 268921 0.236 270.293 43111 12 0.333 0.217 0.268 0.337 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 9928261 0.216 10320.282 42011 20 0.000 0.211 0.282 0.325 OK
Austin WellsC 10629855 0.185 10280.277 44213 00 0.500 0.199 0.291 0.325 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413612 88 58 0.333

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Gabriel HughesStarter 1151.46.30 1.4597.442 4.17552696 4.1 6 5
Jordan RomanoCloser 2118.52.92 1.1899.219 1.02112132 1.0 1 1
Brennan BernardinoSetup Man 6746.63.09 1.3737.941 0.2000008 0.2 0 0
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4538.66.99 1.7889.340 0.1000118 0.1 1 0
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 3926.26.18 1.90812.035 1.23220042 1.2 0 2

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cam SchlittlerStarter 29167.72.09 0.96011.3210 6.121137100 6.1 7 1
David BednarCloser 5757.62.81 1.09410.869 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Brent HeadrickSetup Man 7257.82.34 1.43613.989 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Paul BlackburnMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5569.71.94 1.1628.465 0.22110014 0.2 0 1

Game Summary

NYY wins 8-2


Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies

HOU 74-71 (4.5 RPG / 4.76 RA)
3 - 2
PHI 81-64 (4.46 RPG / 4.23 RA)
WINNER: HOU wins 3-2 TARGET: HOU 3 - 2 PHI (HOU) Confidence: 55.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
HOU00011000135
PHI10001000026

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.4
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff6
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak2L

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs3.4
Avg Allowed2.2
Run Diff12
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

HOU Season Quality

Record73-71
Win%0.507
Run Diff-38
RD/Game-0.264

PHI Season Quality

Record81-63
Win%0.562
Run Diff35
RD/Game0.243

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4439; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 93373101 0.271 17460.325 43000 11 0.000 0.221 0.258 0.365 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 141505160 0.317 38950.435 44100 02 0.250 0.285 0.392 0.575 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 136493125 0.254 18790.355 44000 00 0.000 0.236 0.318 0.372 OK
Jose Altuve2B 116450111 0.247 15440.308 43110 10 0.333 0.242 0.294 0.395 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 2911019 0.173 3120.242 42011 10 0.000 0.186 0.247 0.289 OK
Yainer DiazC 7427272 0.265 11330.294 44112 00 0.250 0.190 0.218 0.341 OK
Christian Walker1B 137506116 0.229 24770.304 44000 02 0.000 0.198 0.259 0.325 OK
Taylor TrammellLF 7921945 0.205 7200.284 44100 01 0.250 0.119 0.193 0.234 OK
Cam SmithRF 13145196 0.213 17490.277 33100 00 0.333 0.190 0.247 0.347 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35315 33 36 0.161

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 136513124 0.242 42860.355 44000 01 0.000 0.262 0.363 0.601 OK
Trea TurnerSS 136568137 0.241 17520.292 44212 00 0.500 0.222 0.269 0.340 OK
Bryce HarperRF 142501136 0.271 27800.390 44210 00 0.500 0.273 0.393 0.469 OK
Luis Arraez2B 3012135 0.289 2130.302 44000 00 0.000 0.290 0.320 0.386 OK
Alec Bohm1B 135505124 0.246 15790.309 44000 01 0.000 0.254 0.316 0.417 OK
Bryson Stott3B 136473119 0.252 10600.326 44100 01 0.250 0.232 0.302 0.363 OK
Brandon MarshLF 135479128 0.267 17570.313 42100 21 0.500 0.194 0.242 0.294 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 10535978 0.217 10460.291 44000 01 0.000 0.196 0.265 0.330 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 12737496 0.257 2340.306 33000 00 0.000 0.210 0.259 0.279 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 22 25 0.182

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Hayden WesneskiStarter 739.23.21 1.0717.633 5.25221590 5.2 5 2
Josh HaderCloser 3938.40.47 0.57312.453 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Bryan AbreuSetup Man 5750.44.11 1.48812.570 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
AJ BlubaughMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5583.13.25 1.2399.689 1.10001012 1.1 0 0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew PainterStarter 21103.05.68 1.3988.091 5.13222484 5.1 4 2
Jhoan DuranCloser 5351.41.40 1.01212.672 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Jonathan BowlanSetup Man 5548.83.32 1.06612.467 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5947.94.70 1.48210.757 1.12110116 1.1 1 1

Game Summary

HOU wins 3-2


Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox

LAA 55-90 (4.03 RPG / 4.55 RA)
3 - 4
BOS 80-66 (4.44 RPG / 3.86 RA)
WINNER: BOS wins 4-3 TARGET: LAA 3 - 4 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 52.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
LAA12000000033
BOS00000200247

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.1
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-5
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed5.8
Run Diff-17
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak5W

LAA Season Quality

Record54-90
Win%0.375
Run Diff-80
RD/Game-0.556

BOS Season Quality

Record80-65
Win%0.552
Run Diff89
RD/Game0.614

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.036; margin adjustment: 0.4351; applied: True

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 139554131 0.236 23670.317 44000 01 0.000 0.217 0.273 0.367 OK
Mike TroutCF 125456111 0.243 20510.376 42111 21 0.500 0.244 0.334 0.363 OK
Jose SiriRF 7217839 0.219 7230.271 43112 10 0.333 0.178 0.220 0.311 OK
Vaughn Grissom1B 9835787 0.244 10580.304 44000 00 0.000 0.225 0.273 0.362 OK
Moisés BallesterosDH 3011322 0.195 280.242 43000 01 0.000 0.262 0.312 0.445 OK
Christian Moore2B 217613 0.171 170.229 43000 11 0.000 0.174 0.219 0.288 OK
Kyren ParisLF 130 0.000 000.000 44110 00 0.250 0.047 0.059 0.077
Denzer Guzman3B 6221747 0.217 6240.261 44000 03 0.000 0.109 0.153 0.179 OK
Travis d'ArnaudC 266110 0.164 130.250 43000 00 0.000 0.083 0.148 0.135 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36303 33 47 0.100

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Roman AnthonyLF 3914836 0.243 370.356 43000 11 0.000 0.235 0.335 0.393 OK
Jahmai JonesDH 213516 0.457 380.525 44100 00 0.250 0.174 0.247 0.353 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 139530136 0.257 23700.336 43110 12 0.333 0.247 0.324 0.423 OK
Trevor StorySS 4919846 0.232 3230.263 44112 02 0.250 0.253 0.277 0.353 OK
Nick Sogard1B 4817646 0.261 4150.361 43000 11 0.000 0.264 0.361 0.416 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 132450109 0.242 12590.320 43000 02 0.000 0.247 0.320 0.347 OK
Andruw Monasterio2B 9429171 0.244 6400.302 44000 01 0.000 0.229 0.280 0.359 OK
Eli WhiteCF 205416 0.296 1120.321 43310 10 1.000 0.272 0.304 0.441 OK
Connor WongC 6519547 0.241 4240.320 44112 00 0.250 0.229 0.286 0.344 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36317 44 49 0.226

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Reid DetmersStarter 28158.53.52 1.08510.3182 6.152228115 6.1 8 2
Ben JoyceCloser 119.42.87 0.95712.413 1.00002126 1.0 1 0
Tayler SaucedoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1911.74.62 1.45313.818 0.22220014 0.2 0 2

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Patrick SandovalStarter 1047.64.54 1.7869.550 5.03334488 5.0 4 3
Aroldis ChapmanCloser 4948.21.49 1.05812.165 1.0000029 1.0 2 0
Erik MillerSetup Man 1313.10.69 0.99216.524 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4947.31.90 0.84610.354 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Greg WeissertMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5644.74.23 1.43210.954 1.00000013 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

BOS wins 4-3


Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers

MIN 69-76 (4.64 RPG / 4.97 RA)
5 - 6
DET 66-79 (4.37 RPG / 4.03 RA)
WINNER: DET wins 6-5 TARGET: MIN 5 - 6 DET (DET) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
MIN00020201059
DET20040000x68

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.5
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff7
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

DET Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed5.7
Run Diff-18
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

MIN Season Quality

Record68-76
Win%0.472
Run Diff-49
RD/Game-0.340

DET Season Quality

Record66-78
Win%0.458
Run Diff51
RD/Game0.354

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3104; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Luke KeaschallRF 134465128 0.275 9440.366 55000 00 0.000 0.273 0.345 0.381 OK
Brooks Lee3B 135516129 0.250 23780.298 55110 01 0.200 0.256 0.294 0.422 OK
Kody Clemens2B 126467111 0.238 24710.299 44311 00 0.750 0.223 0.280 0.415 OK
Ryan JeffersC 7727573 0.265 14540.362 43000 12 0.000 0.210 0.292 0.446 OK
Josh BellDH 138508130 0.256 18840.320 44212 01 0.500 0.271 0.329 0.426 OK
Royce Lewis1B 10940194 0.234 14510.301 44212 00 0.500 0.214 0.274 0.358 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 11537399 0.265 12460.343 44000 02 0.000 0.252 0.316 0.440 OK
Kaelen CulpepperSS 269529 0.305 3100.356 44110 01 0.250 0.270 0.312 0.385 OK
Walker JenkinsCF 9294 0.138 150.286 43000 11 0.000 0.155 0.270 0.294 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38369 55 28 0.250

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigleSS 138530144 0.272 15600.374 43111 10 0.333 0.232 0.330 0.393 OK
Gleyber Torres2B 8431986 0.270 8360.368 43110 11 0.333 0.282 0.364 0.375 OK
Colt Keith1B 12836293 0.257 9320.313 44110 01 0.250 0.253 0.297 0.373 OK
Riley GreeneDH 121444125 0.282 19640.370 43110 11 0.333 0.301 0.378 0.545 OK
Eduardo ValenciaC 298927 0.303 6180.319 44214 01 0.500 0.175 0.188 0.353 OK
Brett CallahanLF 16399 0.231 160.279 44000 03 0.000 0.178 0.222 0.317 OK
Max ClarkCF 3412031 0.258 2160.326 44100 00 0.250 0.272 0.327 0.414 OK
Hao-Yu Lee3B 9226569 0.260 8370.310 43000 11 0.000 0.244 0.313 0.379 OK
Zach McKinstryRF 11134473 0.212 4260.289 44111 01 0.250 0.186 0.248 0.282 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36328 66 49 0.250

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dean KremerStarter 630.25.07 1.2588.328 4.286645111 4.2 5 6
Yoendrys GómezCloser 4838.22.83 1.38710.143 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Jeff HoffmanSetup Man 129.63.75 1.66715.016 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
A.J. MinterMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1511.10.81 1.0819.712 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Andrew MorrisMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5558.24.64 1.5649.360 0.1000014 0.1 1 0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Drew AndersonStarter 4683.54.10 1.42510.9101 5.064424101 5.0 4 4
Kenley JansenCloser 4336.43.46 1.20910.944 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Tyler HoltonSetup Man 6256.53.35 1.5048.453 1.02110319 1.0 3 1
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5750.43.75 1.6878.246 1.21000132 1.2 1 0

Game Summary

DET wins 6-5


New York Mets @ Miami Marlins

NYM 67-78 (4.22 RPG / 4.5 RA)
6 - 5
MIA 72-74 (4.38 RPG / 4.33 RA)
WINNER: NYM wins 6-5 TARGET: NYM 6 - 5 MIA (NYM) Confidence: 53.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
NYM100000203610
MIA10021100056

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff9
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff-2
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

NYM Season Quality

Record66-78
Win%0.458
Run Diff-43
RD/Game-0.299

MIA Season Quality

Record72-73
Win%0.497
Run Diff10
RD/Game0.069

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1572; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Francisco LindorSS 8533878 0.231 16380.310 54311 10 0.750 0.219 0.277 0.387 OK
Juan SotoLF 9132390 0.279 23560.396 55414 00 0.800 0.257 0.359 0.466 OK
Bo BichetteDH 138550147 0.267 16720.314 53011 11 0.000 0.274 0.328 0.436 OK
Carson BengeRF 134514140 0.272 16530.333 55000 01 0.000 0.266 0.320 0.389 OK
Jared Young1B 8827673 0.264 7320.325 55000 03 0.000 0.168 0.226 0.288 OK
Marcus Semien2B 12142796 0.225 14450.290 43000 01 0.000 0.254 0.317 0.363 OK
A.J. EwingCF 10136992 0.249 8330.322 43010 11 0.000 0.262 0.335 0.391 OK
Brett Baty3B 11937686 0.229 9470.295 44110 01 0.250 0.258 0.324 0.458 OK
Francisco AlvarezC 9632072 0.225 14350.310 44210 00 0.500 0.204 0.269 0.405 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413610 66 38 0.278

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Heriberto HernándezLF 11137886 0.228 24630.307 44112 02 0.250 0.203 0.270 0.450 OK
Otto LopezSS 141564170 0.301 10630.338 44110 00 0.250 0.254 0.293 0.375 OK
Agustín RamírezDH 5417940 0.223 3180.310 44111 01 0.250 0.129 0.211 0.234 OK
Javier Sanoja3B 116391114 0.292 8560.327 44210 00 0.500 0.324 0.361 0.513 OK
Esteury RuizRF 7517541 0.234 6120.318 44112 00 0.250 0.142 0.204 0.262 OK
Deyvison De Los Santos1B 6124 0.333 000.333 44000 01 0.000 0.311 0.321 0.471 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 13545998 0.214 9320.333 33000 00 0.000 0.241 0.336 0.371 OK
Jared Serna2B 351 0.200 010.286 33000 01 0.000 0.209 0.325 0.244 OK
Brian NavarretoC 20445 0.114 120.184 33000 00 0.000 0.072 0.113 0.141 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33336 55 05 0.182

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sean ManaeaStarter 29123.94.87 1.4048.9122 6.16440298 6.1 2 4
Kodai SengaCloser 2654.27.47 1.67911.066 1.00110112 1.0 1 1
Daniel DuarteSetup Man 2224.22.23 0.8269.726 1.0000023 1.0 2 0
Nathan LavenderMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 139.50.00 0.84214.215 0.2000008 0.2 0 0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sandy AlcantaraStarter 30193.83.58 1.1976.6142 6.141136116 6.1 6 2
Calvin FaucherCloser 6152.44.29 1.52711.265 1.00000221 1.0 2 1
Tyler ZuberSetup Man 3727.45.26 1.64211.836 1.02220019 1.0 0 3
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5750.83.72 1.28011.967 0.24330020 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

NYM wins 6-5


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox

PIT 71-73 (4.82 RPG / 4.64 RA)
3 - 4
CHW 75-68 (4.76 RPG / 4.41 RA)
WINNER: CHW wins 4-3 TARGET: PIT 3 - 4 CHW (CHW) Confidence: 51.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
PIT30000000032
CHW10101010x410

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff-1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

PIT Season Quality

Record71-73
Win%0.493
Run Diff26
RD/Game0.181

CHW Season Quality

Record75-68
Win%0.524
Run Diff49
RD/Game0.343

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.129; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Konnor GriffinSS 6123562 0.264 5250.319 44111 01 0.250 0.230 0.274 0.338 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 131512130 0.254 29830.322 43010 10 0.000 0.265 0.332 0.452 OK
Bryan ReynoldsDH 141521140 0.269 16670.376 43000 10 0.000 0.287 0.383 0.458 OK
Oneil CruzCF 8031082 0.265 17580.356 44000 02 0.000 0.242 0.330 0.368 OK
Esmerlyn ValdezRF 6622050 0.227 13370.342 33112 00 0.333 0.216 0.327 0.448 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 10134684 0.243 10410.345 33000 02 0.000 0.199 0.298 0.293 OK
Rafael Flores Jr.C 299421 0.223 7170.298 33000 01 0.000 0.222 0.289 0.386 OK
Jacob Gonzalez3B 389618 0.188 290.210 33000 00 0.000 0.229 0.271 0.349 OK
Jake MangumLF 108378109 0.288 4300.342 33000 00 0.000 0.278 0.320 0.363 OK
TEAM TOTALS 31292 33 26 0.069

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 122422113 0.268 8430.367 44100 01 0.250 0.268 0.343 0.399 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 140523132 0.252 30790.362 43110 12 0.333 0.268 0.355 0.459 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 10838982 0.211 30620.350 44000 01 0.000 0.201 0.331 0.444 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 12638392 0.240 14700.304 44313 01 0.750 0.177 0.259 0.321 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 135510108 0.212 31820.292 44310 00 0.750 0.193 0.258 0.446 OK
Braden MontgomeryRF 7426959 0.219 6360.313 44111 00 0.250 0.209 0.303 0.348 OK
Tristan PetersCF 131390111 0.285 12530.345 43100 11 0.333 0.312 0.355 0.475 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 136507137 0.270 12510.344 44000 01 0.000 0.225 0.302 0.330 OK
Kyle TeelC 227213 0.181 3170.253 44000 00 0.000 0.179 0.234 0.371 OK
TEAM TOTALS 363410 44 27 0.294

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bubba ChandlerStarter 27132.54.42 1.4048.2121 5.09331494 5.0 4 3
Mason MontgomeryCloser 6052.22.93 1.16915.992 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Luke WeaverSetup Man 108.46.43 1.66711.811 1.01111019 1.0 0 1
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6055.22.93 1.10511.269 1.00000213 1.0 2 0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sean BurkeStarter 28150.73.28 1.17510.0167 5.22331581 5.2 5 3
Grant TaylorCloser 4151.92.60 1.11813.276 1.10000013 1.1 0 0
Sean NewcombSetup Man 4660.22.84 1.2469.664 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6052.82.90 1.3079.455 0.20001112 0.2 1 0

Game Summary

CHW wins 4-3


St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants

STL 72-73 (4.56 RPG / 4.63 RA)
6 - 5
SF 61-85 (4.21 RPG / 4.68 RA)
WINNER: STL wins 6-5 TARGET: STL 6 - 5 SF (STL) Confidence: 52.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
STL20000220069
SF00004001057

STL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs6.1
Avg Allowed5.8
Run Diff3
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

SF Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed5.7
Run Diff-1
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

STL Season Quality

Record72-73
Win%0.497
Run Diff-10
RD/Game-0.069

SF Season Quality

Record60-85
Win%0.414
Run Diff-74
RD/Game-0.510

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3914; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Bryan TorresLF 5413134 0.260 3160.327 54110 12 0.250 0.265 0.338 0.361 OK
Iván HerreraDH 141536133 0.248 15620.356 54110 11 0.250 0.316 0.378 0.469 OK
Alec Burleson1B 140540152 0.281 221010.342 54110 11 0.250 0.242 0.292 0.430 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 138540153 0.283 26950.341 55112 02 0.200 0.247 0.298 0.406 OK
Leonardo BernalC 7299 0.310 170.375 55100 00 0.200 0.275 0.329 0.373 OK
Nolan Gorman3B 7323644 0.186 9310.264 43100 12 0.333 0.170 0.244 0.325 OK
Thomas Saggese2B 3510529 0.276 4120.333 43112 10 0.333 0.305 0.369 0.502 OK
Masyn WinnSS 117424101 0.238 5510.311 44000 00 0.000 0.159 0.238 0.273 OK
Nathan ChurchCF 11237592 0.245 10480.285 44212 01 0.500 0.249 0.282 0.341 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41369 66 59 0.250

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jonah CoxCF 358725 0.287 4100.326 54100 10 0.250 0.292 0.332 0.450 OK
Rafael Devers1B 144539141 0.262 34910.344 54000 11 0.000 0.296 0.380 0.635 OK
Bryce EldridgeDH 9935293 0.264 15480.359 53110 20 0.333 0.282 0.374 0.454 OK
Osleivis Basabe2B 3210923 0.211 5120.256 44011 01 0.000 0.212 0.247 0.369 OK
Turner HillLF 185616 0.286 0120.377 44211 00 0.500 0.271 0.358 0.361 OK
Andrew KniznerC 15376 0.162 110.244 43112 11 0.333 0.177 0.236 0.312 OK
Shay Whitcomb3B 12437 0.163 140.163 44000 01 0.000 0.197 0.204 0.343 OK
Grant McCrayRF 22598 0.136 230.239 44111 01 0.250 0.153 0.246 0.310 OK
Christian KossSS 4914831 0.209 380.250 44100 01 0.250 0.213 0.254 0.336 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39347 55 56 0.206

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Quinn MathewsStarter 524.24.46 1.6128.924 5.064444108 5.0 4 4
Riley O'BrienCloser 6055.24.24 1.3419.357 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
George SorianoSetup Man 6553.54.88 1.55110.462 0.20001112 0.2 1 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6348.65.00 1.60511.160 1.11110120 1.1 1 1
Justin BruihlMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6358.84.29 1.6167.247 1.00000013 1.0 0 0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Landen RouppStarter 27140.04.31 1.3368.8137 5.252236110 5.2 6 2
Dylan SmithCloser 3529.63.65 1.58812.541 1.03221226 1.0 2 2
Trent HarrisSetup Man 1314.33.15 1.32913.221 1.11221136 1.1 1 2
Carson SeymourMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1621.06.43 1.8107.317 1.00000013 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

STL wins 6-5


Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves

TB 86-58 (4.54 RPG / 4.17 RA)
6 - 5
ATL 85-61 (4.58 RPG / 3.84 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 6-5 TARGET: TB 6 - 5 ATL (TB) Confidence: 52.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
TB100400001610
ATL00001220059

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed5.2
Run Diff0
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

TB Season Quality

Record85-58
Win%0.594
Run Diff47
RD/Game0.329

ATL Season Quality

Record85-59
Win%0.590
Run Diff119
RD/Game0.826

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3279; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 137544167 0.307 21770.375 55000 00 0.000 0.314 0.364 0.457 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 138523147 0.281 19860.362 55000 03 0.000 0.276 0.342 0.471 OK
Junior Caminero3B 142543152 0.280 38920.366 44210 00 0.500 0.247 0.330 0.472 OK
Liam HicksC 268025 0.312 3140.398 44111 00 0.250 0.189 0.259 0.276 OK
Chandler SimpsonLF 131509157 0.308 0310.335 44211 00 0.500 0.289 0.314 0.335 OK
Jonny DeLucaCF 8729077 0.266 9430.299 43110 10 0.333 0.249 0.290 0.392 OK
Victor Mesa Jr.RF 5518141 0.227 10240.284 44213 00 0.500 0.221 0.272 0.360 OK
Richie Palacios2B 10430469 0.227 8430.321 44111 00 0.250 0.157 0.238 0.362 OK
Jorge MateoSS 13395 0.128 150.186 44100 00 0.250 0.163 0.213 0.253 OK
TEAM TOTALS 383710 66 13 0.270

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Michael Harris IICF 137520153 0.294 24800.319 55211 00 0.400 0.250 0.272 0.411 OK
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 9034187 0.255 16450.351 54000 10 0.000 0.300 0.377 0.543 OK
Matt Olson1B 143552137 0.248 36780.323 55000 02 0.000 0.207 0.278 0.402 OK
Drake BaldwinDH 120470130 0.277 22690.354 44312 00 0.750 0.273 0.335 0.426 OK
Mauricio DubónSS 135501134 0.267 11660.312 44000 01 0.000 0.258 0.296 0.388 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 143545138 0.253 21680.308 44210 01 0.500 0.212 0.263 0.345 OK
Austin Riley3B 141500112 0.224 16660.296 44112 01 0.250 0.219 0.272 0.401 OK
Mike YastrzemskiLF 11630970 0.227 9330.307 44110 00 0.250 0.184 0.257 0.300 OK
Sean MurphyC 206815 0.221 380.284 42000 12 0.000 0.230 0.302 0.451 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39369 55 27 0.250

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Freddy PeraltaStarter 632.45.00 1.0497.527 5.283314108 5.2 4 3
Bryan BakerCloser 5653.61.51 0.89610.160 1.01221120 1.0 1 2
Kevin KellySetup Man 6356.42.55 1.0118.553 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Tyler WellsMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1215.31.76 0.7199.416 1.10000117 1.1 1 0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
AJ Smith-ShawverStarter 417.27.33 1.8027.815 4.16551077 4.1 0 5
Raisel IglesiasCloser 5250.92.83 1.1989.755 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Dylan LeeSetup Man 6554.32.65 0.93912.475 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Didier FuentesMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5159.32.58 1.16412.683 1.10000111 1.1 1 0
Dylan DoddMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4440.22.69 1.04510.547 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Victor MederosMiddle Reliever 2326.83.02 1.1949.428 0.13110113 0.1 1 1

Game Summary

TB wins 6-5


Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners

TEX 71-73 (4.13 RPG / 4.44 RA)
5 - 4
SEA 67-77 (3.95 RPG / 4.44 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 5-4 TARGET: TEX 5 - 4 SEA (TEX) Confidence: 52.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789101112RH
TEX01000003000156
SEA00000022000046

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff3
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed5.7
Run Diff-14
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

TEX Season Quality

Record71-73
Win%0.493
Run Diff-44
RD/Game-0.306

SEA Season Quality

Record67-77
Win%0.465
Run Diff-71
RD/Game-0.493

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.303; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc PedersonDH 12836185 0.235 25500.324 55111 01 0.200 0.190 0.266 0.409 OK
Corey SeagerSS 8330970 0.227 15380.322 55000 02 0.000 0.235 0.312 0.453 OK
Ezequiel Duran3B 133473131 0.277 17780.337 55000 01 0.000 0.290 0.346 0.486 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 138527139 0.264 14580.329 54000 12 0.000 0.247 0.302 0.373 OK
Wyatt LangfordLF 9235186 0.245 15360.331 53000 21 0.000 0.176 0.277 0.321 OK
Evan CarterCF 12235068 0.194 9350.287 55212 03 0.400 0.140 0.224 0.288 OK
Jake Burger1B 136494118 0.239 25820.303 55110 01 0.200 0.238 0.310 0.482 OK
Nicky Lopez2B 7420154 0.269 1210.312 55110 01 0.200 0.185 0.232 0.250 OK
Danny JansenC 5015326 0.170 5160.262 55112 01 0.200 0.109 0.179 0.231 OK
TEAM TOTALS 45426 55 313 0.143

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Randy ArozarenaLF 136505138 0.273 22660.372 66110 01 0.167 0.266 0.340 0.430 OK
Dominic CanzoneRF 126405103 0.254 21640.324 55110 01 0.200 0.246 0.312 0.451 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 132528127 0.241 20610.299 55313 00 0.600 0.196 0.242 0.296 OK
Cal RaleighC 10838771 0.183 21590.296 55000 00 0.000 0.267 0.359 0.480 OK
J.P. CrawfordSS 9834277 0.225 10330.348 54000 12 0.000 0.267 0.387 0.362 OK
Josh Naylor1B 134524140 0.267 10490.325 55111 01 0.200 0.226 0.274 0.299 OK
Cole Young2B 142519127 0.245 16580.309 53000 22 0.000 0.142 0.204 0.249 OK
Lazaro MontesDH 5143 0.214 130.267 55000 02 0.000 0.216 0.267 0.415 OK
Brock Rodden3B 164911 0.224 040.328 54000 11 0.000 0.226 0.329 0.309 OK
TEAM TOTALS 46426 44 410 0.143

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cal QuantrillStarter 2994.82.85 1.0866.973 5.21001684 5.2 6 0
Jacob LatzCloser 5059.61.51 0.75510.670 2.12221039 2.1 0 2
Jakob JunisSetup Man 4645.62.96 1.2286.935 1.03220122 0.0 1 2
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1712.13.72 1.73611.215 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Trevor WilliamsReliever 34.16.59 1.4636.63 1.10000017 0.0 0 0
Robert GarciaReliever 96.64.09 1.8188.26 0.20001212 0.0 2 0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryce MillerStarter 1895.44.15 1.1539.095 5.22112697 5.2 6 1
Andrés MuñozCloser 5449.34.02 1.17615.283 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
José A. FerrerSetup Man 6451.34.21 1.5798.146 1.13330126 1.1 1 3
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6652.23.97 1.66710.963 1.01001320 1.0 3 0
Gabe SpeierMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4632.83.02 1.2809.635 2.00000226 0.0 2 0
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 1612.85.62 1.4847.010 1.00110013 0.0 0 1

Game Summary

TEX wins 5-4


Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland Athletics

TOR 72-73 (4.03 RPG / 4.3 RA)
5 - 4
OAK 58-87 (4.39 RPG / 5.68 RA)
WINNER: TOR wins 5-4 TARGET: TOR 5 - 4 OAK (TOR) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
TOR40001000058
OAK01000003049

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff26
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak2L

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TOR Season Quality

Record72-73
Win%0.497
Run Diff-39
RD/Game-0.269

OAK Season Quality

Record58-87
Win%0.400
Run Diff-187
RD/Game-1.290

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9508; margin adjustment: -0.3993; applied: True

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brett BatemanCF 2610535 0.333 070.403 54110 10 0.250 0.308 0.372 0.393 OK
Nathan LukesRF 10636098 0.272 10360.321 54100 11 0.250 0.301 0.330 0.402 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 129490127 0.259 8540.325 54000 11 0.000 0.244 0.303 0.329 OK
Alejandro KirkC 6423264 0.276 9350.340 43100 00 0.333 0.266 0.314 0.417 OK
Josh SmithLF 17369 0.250 460.364 44112 01 0.250 0.233 0.341 0.421 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 138509118 0.232 29820.306 43210 10 0.667 0.250 0.318 0.487 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 127422103 0.244 9530.290 44112 00 0.250 0.275 0.302 0.417 OK
Jesús SánchezDH 9626569 0.260 8350.319 44000 00 0.000 0.254 0.293 0.398 OK
Ernie Clement2B 141535147 0.275 9460.301 44111 00 0.250 0.243 0.272 0.334 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39348 55 43 0.235

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Henry BolteCF 9834996 0.275 9320.354 54100 10 0.250 0.274 0.351 0.415 OK
Jeff McNeil1B 126422113 0.268 8530.314 55100 02 0.200 0.264 0.305 0.382 OK
Zack Gelof3B 9033185 0.257 17440.320 44111 02 0.250 0.233 0.281 0.461 OK
Lawrence ButlerRF 13040693 0.229 13520.317 44100 01 0.250 0.228 0.300 0.381 OK
Carlos CortesLF 10630279 0.262 8390.327 44212 02 0.500 0.266 0.316 0.386 OK
Tommy WhiteDH 3914938 0.255 280.273 44210 00 0.500 0.249 0.268 0.326 OK
Donovan Walton2B 399019 0.211 2100.393 44111 01 0.250 0.209 0.315 0.399 OK
Alika WilliamsSS 6418048 0.267 4150.298 43000 10 0.000 0.258 0.288 0.426 OK
Jonah HeimC 8128058 0.207 12340.263 44000 01 0.000 0.197 0.250 0.369 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38369 44 29 0.250

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
José SorianoStarter 631.64.56 1.5196.824 5.24112697 5.2 6 1
Louis VarlandCloser 6566.21.36 1.10311.887 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Tyler RogersSetup Man 6760.01.95 1.2675.436 1.05330028 1.0 0 3
Spencer MilesMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4478.93.08 1.1668.978 1.10000117 1.1 1 0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack PerkinsStarter 3393.26.86 1.62011.2116 4.07554195 4.0 1 5
Elvis AlvaradoCloser 4740.74.86 1.45012.255 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Hogan HarrisSetup Man 6651.74.18 1.77914.483 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Luis MedinaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4960.23.44 1.47812.382 1.11000020 1.1 0 0
Scott BlewettMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1622.02.86 1.3649.423 1.10000217 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

TOR wins 5-4


Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres

WAS 67-79 (5.14 RPG / 5.08 RA)
4 - 5
SD 76-68 (4.2 RPG / 4.14 RA)
WINNER: SD wins 5-4 TARGET: WAS 4 - 5 SD (SD) Confidence: 52.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
12345678910RH
WAS000000022047
SD001120000159

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak5L

SD Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff-8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

WAS Season Quality

Record67-79
Win%0.459
Run Diff8
RD/Game0.055

SD Season Quality

Record76-68
Win%0.528
Run Diff9
RD/Game0.062

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0414; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 119456122 0.268 30740.394 54100 11 0.250 0.272 0.386 0.483 OK
Abimelec OrtizDH 3310421 0.202 5110.239 55111 01 0.200 0.202 0.238 0.356 OK
Dylan CrewsCF 9134576 0.220 11380.290 55000 02 0.000 0.228 0.279 0.394 OK
CJ AbramsSS 137522137 0.262 30950.340 54111 10 0.250 0.198 0.263 0.391 OK
Brady House3B 7828068 0.243 10410.300 55000 00 0.000 0.247 0.294 0.386 OK
Daylen LileLF 144546139 0.255 20820.308 43100 11 0.333 0.250 0.302 0.446 OK
Yohandy Morales1B 5125 0.417 110.417 44111 00 0.250 0.140 0.153 0.377 OK
Jorbit Vivas2B 10227265 0.239 3250.331 44111 01 0.250 0.235 0.333 0.325 OK
Harry FordC 268016 0.200 3100.312 43100 11 0.333 0.189 0.295 0.343 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41377 44 47 0.189

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 140558158 0.283 20700.348 54110 02 0.250 0.283 0.333 0.475 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 9131566 0.210 5270.295 55000 03 0.000 0.163 0.236 0.273 OK
Manny Machado3B 140519116 0.224 26780.312 55000 01 0.000 0.260 0.349 0.493 OK
Ty France1B 112379109 0.288 20620.357 54211 10 0.500 0.242 0.317 0.451 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 140544131 0.241 22720.293 54110 10 0.250 0.235 0.279 0.383 OK
Luis CampusanoDH 5816847 0.280 7260.379 54111 10 0.250 0.270 0.352 0.473 OK
Dustin HarrisLF 8259 0.360 010.360 55100 02 0.200 0.255 0.303 0.343 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 137466102 0.219 11520.319 44313 00 0.750 0.228 0.323 0.302 OK
Freddy FerminC 7121341 0.192 4170.260 44000 00 0.000 0.099 0.162 0.169 OK
TEAM TOTALS 43399 55 38 0.231

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Riley CornelioStarter 1220.86.49 1.97110.023 3.25220271 3.2 2 2
Clayton BeeterCloser 4741.14.60 1.5099.945 1.21000124 1.2 1 0
Erik TolmanSetup Man 66.41.41 1.09412.79 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Brad LordMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 3567.24.02 1.3549.470 1.10003129 1.1 1 0
Luis PeralesMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 35.014.40 2.6009.05 1.01110216 0.0 2 1
Jack SinclairReliever 32.30.00 1.30411.73 1.02220119 0.0 1 2

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Casey MizeStarter 626.36.84 1.5595.115 5.02003486 5.0 4 0
Mason MillerCloser 5858.31.23 0.87517.4113 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Adrian MorejonSetup Man 6768.83.27 1.23512.495 1.23220230 1.2 2 2
Bradgley RodriguezMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6056.72.06 1.12911.472 1.02221123 1.0 1 2
Yuki MatsuiMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4448.12.25 1.31011.461 1.10000017 0.1 0 0

Game Summary

SD wins 5-4