MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

September 4, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (16 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
ARI @ HOU4 - 64 - 6HOUHOUHOU wins 6-458%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
ATL @ PHI4 - 34 - 3ATLATLATL wins 4-356%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BOS @ BAL4 - 64 - 6BALBALBAL wins 6-453%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ MIA6 - 36 - 3CHCCHCCHC wins 6-372%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
DET @ CLE3 - 43 - 4CLECLECLE wins 4-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
DET @ CLE3 - 43 - 4CLECLECLE wins 4-355%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAA @ PIT5 - 75 - 7PITPITPIT wins 7-566%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ CIN8 - 58 - 5MILMILMIL wins 8-554%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIN @ CHW6 - 56 - 5MINMINMIN wins 6-554%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYY @ SD6 - 36 - 3NYYNYYNYY wins 6-364%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
OAK @ SEA5 - 65 - 6SEASEASEA wins 6-555%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SF @ NYM4 - 54 - 5NYMNYMNYM wins 5-455%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
STL @ COL6 - 56 - 5STLSTLSTL wins 6-555%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ TEX3 - 43 - 4TEXTEXTEX wins 4-356%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TOR @ KC5 - 75 - 7KCKCKC wins 7-556%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
WAS @ LAD4 - 54 - 5LADLADLAD wins 5-456%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros

ARI 74-67 (4.45 RPG / 4.46 RA)
4 - 6
HOU 72-69 (4.53 RPG / 4.8 RA)
WINNER: HOU wins 6-4 TARGET: ARI 4 - 6 HOU (HOU) Confidence: 58.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
ARI03010000045
HOU000010014611

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.0
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff-10
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

ARI Season Quality

Record74-67
Win%0.525
Run Diff-1
RD/Game-0.007

HOU Season Quality

Record72-69
Win%0.511
Run Diff-38
RD/Game-0.270

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.029; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Geraldo PerdomoSS 136490124 0.253 9470.360 55111 00 0.200 0.263 0.359 0.354 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 137511123 0.241 19610.337 44112 01 0.250 0.181 0.268 0.358 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 110396118 0.298 11670.376 44000 02 0.000 0.244 0.316 0.389 OK
Ketel Marte2B 119475119 0.251 21670.316 43100 01 0.333 0.247 0.324 0.421 OK
Lars NootbaarDH 226715 0.224 3110.333 43110 10 0.333 0.274 0.367 0.519 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 131457107 0.234 21650.308 43000 00 0.000 0.187 0.240 0.309 OK
Max KeplerLF 3812627 0.214 2150.273 44111 00 0.250 0.204 0.259 0.298 OK
Tim Tawa1B 7724659 0.240 9350.294 43000 11 0.000 0.207 0.267 0.348 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 7122762 0.273 3220.336 43000 12 0.000 0.258 0.313 0.387 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37325 44 37 0.156

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 90360100 0.278 17460.332 54210 11 0.500 0.238 0.279 0.421 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 138493157 0.318 37940.436 55212 00 0.400 0.265 0.386 0.480 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 133482122 0.253 18750.354 54100 11 0.250 0.243 0.336 0.390 OK
Jose Altuve2B 113438107 0.244 15430.308 55211 01 0.400 0.223 0.283 0.400 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 2610018 0.180 3120.248 55210 00 0.400 0.211 0.271 0.336 OK
Christian Walker1B 134496114 0.230 24770.304 54112 11 0.250 0.212 0.271 0.364 OK
Taylor TrammellRF 7621144 0.209 7200.289 43111 11 0.333 0.213 0.287 0.364 OK
Yainer DiazC 7126468 0.258 10320.288 44000 01 0.000 0.248 0.272 0.411 OK
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF 4110622 0.208 3170.311 43000 11 0.000 0.186 0.278 0.346 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423711 66 57 0.297

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Merrill KellyStarter 25139.15.18 1.5106.195 5.053343106 5.0 3 3
Brandyn GarciaCloser 3626.82.01 0.78412.136 1.00001229 1.0 2 0
Juan MorilloSetup Man 4840.42.90 1.11412.355 1.00000119 1.0 1 0
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4840.83.09 1.2257.132 0.12110110 0.1 1 1
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5042.93.36 1.2359.043 1.14220020 0.2 0 2

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cristian JavierStarter 1343.56.62 1.6788.742 4.15443394 4.1 3 4
Josh HaderCloser 3736.40.49 0.60412.149 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Steven OkertSetup Man 6858.82.45 1.00310.468 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5548.34.29 1.51112.969 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
AJ BlubaughMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5481.93.19 1.2339.687 1.10000026 1.1 0 0
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 6056.55.10 1.3639.459 0.1000014 0.1 1 0

Game Summary

HOU wins 6-4


Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

ATL 84-58 (4.65 RPG / 3.83 RA)
4 - 3
PHI 79-62 (4.49 RPG / 4.26 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 4-3 TARGET: ATL 4 - 3 PHI (ATL) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
ATL000120010411
PHI21000000038

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

ATL Season Quality

Record83-57
Win%0.593
Run Diff118
RD/Game0.843

PHI Season Quality

Record79-61
Win%0.564
Run Diff36
RD/Game0.257

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4464; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 8632680 0.245 14390.346 54100 11 0.250 0.270 0.349 0.428 OK
Drake BaldwinDH 116452125 0.277 22690.357 55311 00 0.600 0.286 0.350 0.457 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 139528136 0.258 21680.314 55210 02 0.400 0.241 0.294 0.385 OK
Matt Olson1B 139538136 0.253 36780.327 54000 12 0.000 0.217 0.284 0.419 OK
Lane ThomasLF 16367 0.194 130.256 44211 01 0.500 0.141 0.232 0.252 OK
Mauricio DubónCF 131486130 0.267 10640.313 44000 01 0.000 0.264 0.307 0.367 OK
Sean MurphyC 186215 0.242 380.288 44212 01 0.500 0.315 0.359 0.599 OK
Austin Riley3B 137487109 0.224 15630.297 44000 01 0.000 0.228 0.287 0.328 OK
Ha-Seong KimSS 319211 0.120 050.214 44100 00 0.250 0.215 0.289 0.256 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403811 44 29 0.289

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 132499119 0.238 39820.351 44112 01 0.250 0.196 0.300 0.387 OK
Trea TurnerSS 132552133 0.241 17520.292 43110 11 0.333 0.200 0.251 0.290 OK
Bryce HarperRF 138487134 0.275 27800.395 44100 00 0.250 0.308 0.430 0.528 OK
Luis Arraez2B 2610730 0.280 2110.297 44100 01 0.250 0.267 0.299 0.353 OK
Alec Bohm1B 131492121 0.246 14760.308 44100 00 0.250 0.247 0.308 0.372 OK
Edmundo Sosa3B 6920248 0.238 7400.273 44000 01 0.000 0.263 0.286 0.466 OK
Bryan De La CruzLF 194817 0.354 2110.389 44000 01 0.000 0.331 0.358 0.505 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 10235178 0.222 10450.294 44100 00 0.250 0.226 0.287 0.379 OK
Derek HillCF 359726 0.268 5180.297 44211 01 0.500 0.178 0.211 0.287 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36358 33 16 0.229

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chris SaleStarter 24142.62.08 1.01011.2177 6.16220698 6.1 6 2
Raisel IglesiasCloser 5048.92.94 1.2279.652 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Dylan LeeSetup Man 6453.32.70 0.95712.574 1.0000106 1.0 0 0
Didier FuentesMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4955.32.60 1.23012.778 0.21000011 0.2 0 0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cristopher SánchezStarter 28173.02.55 1.20810.5202 6.182217118 6.1 7 3
Jhoan DuranCloser 5149.41.28 1.01212.669 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Jonathan BowlanSetup Man 5447.83.20 1.06712.466 1.00001217 1.0 2 0
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5846.94.41 1.47110.957 0.23220017 0.2 0 1

Game Summary

ATL wins 4-3


Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

BOS 77-65 (4.46 RPG / 3.91 RA)
4 - 6
BAL 69-73 (4.51 RPG / 4.66 RA)
WINNER: BAL wins 6-4 TARGET: BOS 4 - 6 BAL (BAL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
BOS04000000044
BAL02100021x66

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed6.3
Run Diff-23
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.7
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff14
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

BOS Season Quality

Record76-65
Win%0.539
Run Diff78
RD/Game0.553

BAL Season Quality

Record69-72
Win%0.489
Run Diff-21
RD/Game-0.149

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2556; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Roman AnthonyDH 3513135 0.267 370.377 43000 13 0.000 0.288 0.382 0.473 OK
Mickey Gasper1B 4814841 0.277 7210.365 43000 11 0.000 0.285 0.365 0.538 OK
Adley RutschmanC 165711 0.193 360.270 43000 00 0.000 0.239 0.293 0.485 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 136520135 0.260 23700.337 43111 11 0.333 0.276 0.340 0.461 OK
Nick Sogard2B 4516544 0.267 4150.365 44111 00 0.250 0.262 0.351 0.497 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 129440107 0.243 12590.319 44000 00 0.000 0.227 0.304 0.316 OK
Jarren DuranLF 130494100 0.202 19620.260 43110 11 0.333 0.178 0.227 0.338 OK
Trevor StorySS 4518141 0.227 3230.260 44112 00 0.250 0.249 0.277 0.370 OK
Eli WhiteCF 163810 0.263 060.300 44000 00 0.000 0.241 0.282 0.405 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36314 44 46 0.129

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Blaze AlexanderRF 7623874 0.311 4300.363 43010 10 0.000 0.304 0.347 0.408 OK
Coby MayoDH 10633675 0.223 19550.288 43011 01 0.000 0.237 0.293 0.453 OK
Pete Alonso1B 138517140 0.271 33940.361 42000 10 0.000 0.252 0.345 0.485 OK
Luis Robert Jr.CF 282 0.250 130.250 44000 02 0.000 0.220 0.285 0.421 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 136546120 0.220 21560.303 44000 01 0.000 0.233 0.301 0.429 OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B 3812632 0.254 7280.301 44213 00 0.500 0.268 0.313 0.521 OK
Jackson Holliday2B 8427264 0.235 7280.307 43110 10 0.333 0.156 0.226 0.278 OK
Carlos NarváezC 21555 0.091 000.194 43111 10 0.333 0.142 0.209 0.198 OK
Leody TaverasLF 11738584 0.218 8520.289 33211 00 0.667 0.203 0.280 0.335 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35296 66 44 0.207

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ranger SuarezStarter 24120.43.74 1.2718.9119 5.02332285 5.0 2 3
Aroldis ChapmanCloser 4746.21.56 1.08212.162 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Erik MillerSetup Man 1212.10.74 1.07416.422 1.02221023 1.0 0 2
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4745.31.99 0.86110.352 1.02110119 1.0 1 1

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane BazStarter 27152.14.14 1.3948.2139 5.24441699 5.2 6 4
Andrew KittredgeCloser 5039.83.62 1.5338.437 1.00001024 1.0 0 0
Rico GarciaSetup Man 6552.22.93 1.01510.561 1.00002021 1.0 0 0
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5935.83.02 1.11710.341 0.2000008 0.2 0 0
Josh WalkerMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2116.12.80 1.67711.220 0.2000008 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

BAL wins 6-4


Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins

CHC 79-62 (5.34 RPG / 4.4 RA)
6 - 3
MIA 71-70 (4.36 RPG / 4.26 RA)
WINNER: CHC wins 6-3 TARGET: CHC 6 - 3 MIA (CHC) Confidence: 72.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CHC101020200611
MIA00000003034

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs6.9
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff18
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CHC Season Quality

Record79-62
Win%0.560
Run Diff133
RD/Game0.943

MIA Season Quality

Record71-70
Win%0.504
Run Diff14
RD/Game0.099

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.7467; margin adjustment: -0.3136; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 139535151 0.282 39930.377 55211 01 0.400 0.268 0.340 0.629 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 122464128 0.276 24800.372 55311 00 0.600 0.256 0.354 0.458 OK
Michael Busch1B 137523124 0.237 16660.345 54212 10 0.500 0.184 0.284 0.337 OK
Alex Bregman3B 137546143 0.262 24810.348 55112 02 0.200 0.285 0.349 0.574 OK
Ian HappLF 131479106 0.221 23610.324 55000 02 0.000 0.233 0.317 0.414 OK
Nico HoernerSS 136541141 0.261 8620.313 43110 10 0.333 0.260 0.308 0.364 OK
Pedro Ramirez2B 5817149 0.287 4240.349 43000 10 0.000 0.237 0.308 0.406 OK
Michael ConfortoDH 9121650 0.231 13360.314 44110 02 0.250 0.235 0.305 0.491 OK
Carson KellyC 9833187 0.263 10510.342 44100 01 0.250 0.261 0.336 0.450 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413811 66 38 0.289

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Heriberto HernándezLF 10736284 0.232 23610.311 55100 03 0.200 0.225 0.300 0.496 OK
Otto LopezSS 137549166 0.302 10620.338 43000 12 0.000 0.240 0.273 0.379 OK
Griffin ConineRF 6920952 0.249 14310.340 43111 10 0.333 0.228 0.306 0.381 OK
Javier Sanoja3B 112376108 0.287 7530.322 43112 10 0.333 0.306 0.342 0.458 OK
Agustín RamírezDH 5217440 0.230 3180.318 43000 10 0.000 0.216 0.291 0.354 OK
Esteury RuizCF 7317040 0.235 6110.321 44000 02 0.000 0.219 0.283 0.367 OK
Deyvison De Los Santos1B 493 0.333 000.333 43000 10 0.000 0.311 0.322 0.433 OK
Jared Serna2B 231 0.333 010.400 43110 12 0.333 0.311 0.459 0.346 OK
Brian NavarretoC 19425 0.119 120.191 44000 01 0.000 0.088 0.130 0.151 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37314 33 610 0.129

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shota ImanagaStarter 27147.34.09 1.1689.0148 5.12003597 5.1 5 0
Jacob WebbCloser 6154.43.47 1.36010.865 1.10001121 1.1 1 0
Colin ReaSetup Man 29124.94.61 1.3937.097 1.12332236 1.1 2 3
Trent ThorntonMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4339.43.65 1.3716.428 1.00000213 1.0 2 0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Janson JunkStarter 21100.24.22 1.3376.370 5.07441488 5.0 4 4
Calvin FaucherCloser 6052.24.31 1.49411.064 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Tyler ZuberSetup Man 3626.45.45 1.62911.634 1.03220019 1.0 0 2
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5750.83.72 1.28011.967 1.01001120 1.0 1 0
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1011.24.02 1.2508.010 1.00001217 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 6-3


Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians

DET 64-76 (4.4 RPG / 4.07 RA)
3 - 4
CLE 71-70 (4.06 RPG / 4.13 RA)
WINNER: CLE wins 4-3 TARGET: DET 3 - 4 CLE (CLE) Confidence: 52.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
DET00000001238
CLE30000010x48

DET Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.0
Avg Allowed6.0
Run Diff-30
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

DET Season Quality

Record64-75
Win%0.460
Run Diff47
RD/Game0.338

CLE Season Quality

Record70-70
Win%0.500
Run Diff-11
RD/Game-0.079

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0337; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gleyber TorresDH 8030179 0.262 8360.365 54000 11 0.000 0.257 0.349 0.371 OK
Kevin McGonigle3B 134515140 0.272 14580.373 55211 01 0.400 0.245 0.344 0.371 OK
Hao-Yu Lee2B 8825368 0.269 8360.312 44100 01 0.250 0.260 0.309 0.429 OK
Dillon DinglerC 127483121 0.251 26820.314 44000 02 0.000 0.211 0.249 0.354 OK
Riley GreeneLF 117428116 0.271 16560.362 43100 10 0.333 0.228 0.310 0.381 OK
Ben MalgeriRF 327819 0.244 3110.326 44200 00 0.500 0.237 0.309 0.361 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 136461101 0.219 21640.313 43000 11 0.000 0.171 0.257 0.386 OK
Max ClarkCF 3010527 0.257 2140.328 44111 01 0.250 0.282 0.337 0.466 OK
Javier BáezSS 4816241 0.253 2170.282 44111 00 0.250 0.172 0.202 0.284 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38358 33 37 0.229

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanCF 125450123 0.273 2270.370 44100 02 0.250 0.285 0.368 0.345 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 114430127 0.295 13590.365 44310 00 0.750 0.309 0.363 0.450 OK
José RamírezDH 10338693 0.241 11480.334 44111 01 0.250 0.246 0.330 0.399 OK
Jo AdellLF 269624 0.250 4210.336 44111 02 0.250 0.248 0.298 0.398 OK
Nathaniel Lowe1B 248719 0.218 3150.258 43212 10 0.667 0.215 0.284 0.392 OK
Angel Genao3B 238321 0.253 260.311 43000 11 0.000 0.215 0.268 0.337 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 10237387 0.233 9410.325 44000 01 0.000 0.181 0.268 0.284 OK
Patrick BaileyC 5817342 0.243 7270.309 33000 00 0.000 0.202 0.290 0.364 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 130458113 0.247 10530.305 33000 01 0.000 0.217 0.258 0.308 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34328 44 28 0.250

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Keider MonteroStarter 28134.83.34 1.0246.192 6.052227109 6.0 7 2
Kenley JansenCloser 4033.23.80 1.26511.442 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
Tyler HoltonSetup Man 6053.53.53 1.5338.651 1.01110016 1.0 0 1

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan AllenStarter 614.13.83 1.4899.615 3.02002358 3.0 3 0
Cade SmithCloser 5857.52.50 1.14813.586 1.20000121 1.2 1 0
Hunter GaddisSetup Man 5539.53.42 1.44310.546 2.01000128 2.0 1 0
Erik SabrowskiMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4930.73.52 1.46619.165 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
Colin HoldermanMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5244.52.43 1.12410.150 1.13221130 1.1 1 2

Game Summary

CLE wins 4-3


Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians

DET 64-76 (4.4 RPG / 4.07 RA)
3 - 4
CLE 71-70 (4.06 RPG / 4.13 RA)
WINNER: CLE wins 4-3 TARGET: DET 3 - 4 CLE (CLE) Confidence: 55.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
DET00300000034
CLE00102000147

DET Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.0
Avg Allowed6.0
Run Diff-30
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

DET Season Quality

Record64-75
Win%0.460
Run Diff47
RD/Game0.338

CLE Season Quality

Record70-70
Win%0.500
Run Diff-11
RD/Game-0.079

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0337; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gleyber TorresDH 8030179 0.262 8360.365 44111 01 0.250 0.257 0.349 0.371 OK
Kevin McGonigle3B 134515140 0.272 14580.373 43112 10 0.333 0.246 0.345 0.372 OK
Hao-Yu Lee2B 8825368 0.269 8360.312 44000 01 0.000 0.260 0.310 0.429 OK
Dillon DinglerC 127483121 0.251 26820.314 44000 01 0.000 0.211 0.249 0.354 OK
Riley GreeneLF 117428116 0.271 16560.362 44000 01 0.000 0.228 0.310 0.381 OK
Ben MalgeriRF 327819 0.244 3110.326 43000 10 0.000 0.237 0.309 0.361 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 136461101 0.219 21640.313 43110 10 0.333 0.171 0.257 0.387 OK
Max ClarkCF 3010527 0.257 2140.328 44000 00 0.000 0.282 0.337 0.466 OK
Javier BáezSS 4816241 0.253 2170.282 32100 01 0.500 0.173 0.202 0.284 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35314 33 35 0.129

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanCF 125450123 0.273 2270.370 44100 00 0.250 0.285 0.368 0.345 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 114430127 0.295 13590.365 43111 11 0.333 0.309 0.363 0.450 OK
José RamírezDH 10338693 0.241 11480.334 43110 10 0.333 0.246 0.330 0.399 OK
Jo AdellLF 269624 0.250 4210.336 43112 10 0.333 0.248 0.298 0.399 OK
Nathaniel Lowe1B 248719 0.218 3150.258 44100 03 0.250 0.215 0.284 0.392 OK
Angel Genao3B 238321 0.253 260.311 43000 11 0.000 0.215 0.268 0.337 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 10237387 0.233 9410.325 43000 11 0.000 0.182 0.268 0.285 OK
Patrick BaileyC 5817342 0.243 7270.309 44000 02 0.000 0.202 0.290 0.364 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 130458113 0.247 10530.305 44211 00 0.500 0.217 0.258 0.308 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36317 44 58 0.226

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew SearsStarter 26.27.26 1.4525.84 3.13113575 3.1 5 1
Kenley JansenCloser 4033.23.80 1.26511.442 0.23220217 0.2 2 2
Tyler HoltonSetup Man 6053.53.53 1.5338.651 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5649.43.83 1.7218.446 0.20001012 0.2 0 0
Drew SommersMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 3321.44.21 1.54219.847 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Jacob WaguespackMiddle Reliever 2729.33.07 1.0926.521 1.11110029 1.1 0 1

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Foster GriffinStarter 525.03.96 1.3608.323 5.243335102 5.2 5 3
Cade SmithCloser 5857.52.50 1.14813.586 1.20000021 1.2 0 0
Hunter GaddisSetup Man 5539.53.42 1.44310.546 0.2000008 0.2 0 0
Erik SabrowskiMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4930.73.52 1.46619.165 1.00000013 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

CLE wins 4-3


Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates

LAA 53-88 (4.05 RPG / 4.62 RA)
5 - 7
PIT 70-72 (4.87 RPG / 4.66 RA)
WINNER: PIT wins 7-5 TARGET: LAA 5 - 7 PIT (PIT) Confidence: 66.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
LAA00202100059
PIT06000001x77

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.100
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-12
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff0
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

LAA Season Quality

Record53-87
Win%0.379
Run Diff-80
RD/Game-0.571

PIT Season Quality

Record69-72
Win%0.489
Run Diff29
RD/Game0.206

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8399; margin adjustment: 0.3528; applied: True

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 135538127 0.236 23660.317 55213 02 0.400 0.220 0.285 0.413 OK
Mike TroutCF 121440105 0.239 20500.375 44000 00 0.000 0.222 0.326 0.365 OK
Wade MecklerRF 7122667 0.296 3230.367 44110 01 0.250 0.291 0.362 0.375 OK
Vaughn Grissom1B 9434285 0.249 10580.307 44111 01 0.250 0.243 0.280 0.408 OK
Moisés BallesterosC 2610017 0.170 160.217 44000 02 0.000 0.203 0.257 0.324 OK
Christian Moore2B 176111 0.180 160.250 44210 01 0.500 0.181 0.238 0.346 OK
Jose SiriLF 7017539 0.223 7230.275 43000 11 0.000 0.189 0.237 0.326 OK
Adam FrazierDH 4811027 0.245 1100.314 44100 01 0.250 0.245 0.289 0.350 OK
Oswald Peraza3B 10031771 0.224 7240.278 44211 01 0.500 0.210 0.251 0.312 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37369 55 110 0.250

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Spencer Horwitz1B 9834084 0.247 10410.345 43110 10 0.333 0.228 0.303 0.322 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 128503127 0.252 29830.322 43211 10 0.667 0.260 0.331 0.505 OK
Bryan ReynoldsRF 138512135 0.264 15660.371 43011 12 0.000 0.273 0.367 0.415 OK
Nick GonzalesDH 127483148 0.306 4570.368 44112 01 0.250 0.326 0.385 0.399 OK
Oneil CruzCF 7730081 0.270 17580.362 44112 01 0.250 0.262 0.357 0.412 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 5822562 0.276 5250.332 44211 01 0.500 0.296 0.341 0.421 OK
Jake MangumLF 106371108 0.291 4290.346 44000 02 0.000 0.298 0.339 0.374 OK
Jacob Gonzalez3B 369017 0.189 290.213 43000 00 0.000 0.237 0.281 0.364 OK
Henry DavisC 7623038 0.165 8340.251 43010 10 0.000 0.150 0.217 0.253 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36317 77 47 0.226

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryan JohnsonStarter 1770.75.60 1.4576.652 5.066636101 5.0 6 7
Ben JoyceCloser 108.43.21 0.95213.913 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Tayler SaucedoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1911.74.62 1.45313.818 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
José FerminMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4439.93.83 1.52912.455 1.01111020 1.0 0 0

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jared JonesStarter 1671.54.91 1.30110.483 5.07551598 5.0 5 5
Mason MontgomeryCloser 5850.23.05 1.17516.190 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Luke WeaverSetup Man 108.46.43 1.66711.811 1.10000217 1.1 2 0
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5955.02.95 1.10911.369 1.12000223 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

PIT wins 7-5


Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds

MIL 87-54 (5.0 RPG / 3.79 RA)
8 - 5
CIN 67-73 (4.15 RPG / 4.92 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 8-5 TARGET: MIL 8 - 5 CIN (MIL) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
1234567891011RH
MIL02003000003810
CIN0100012000158

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.5
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff10
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed6.3
Run Diff-16
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2W

MIL Season Quality

Record87-54
Win%0.617
Run Diff171
RD/Game1.213

CIN Season Quality

Record67-73
Win%0.479
Run Diff-108
RD/Game-0.771

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.5801; margin adjustment: -2.5282; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sal FrelickRF 9229170 0.241 4350.304 55212 00 0.400 0.179 0.249 0.270 OK
Jake Bauers1B 122412110 0.267 22740.386 55010 02 0.000 0.223 0.365 0.381 OK
Jackson ChourioLF 104433125 0.289 21580.348 55211 01 0.400 0.287 0.334 0.492 OK
Christian YelichDH 9636686 0.235 10470.318 55213 00 0.400 0.267 0.335 0.439 OK
William ContrerasC 128495134 0.271 13710.339 55111 00 0.200 0.289 0.348 0.443 OK
Brice Turang2B 127500129 0.258 17800.348 55000 02 0.000 0.222 0.308 0.375 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 11738498 0.255 8480.345 54110 12 0.250 0.278 0.348 0.431 OK
Cooper PrattSS 5116144 0.273 3230.337 54110 11 0.250 0.293 0.354 0.404 OK
David Hamilton3B 9829671 0.240 4240.306 55111 02 0.200 0.242 0.296 0.326 OK
TEAM TOTALS 454310 88 210 0.233

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Dane MyersCF 8723460 0.256 5210.343 64000 11 0.000 0.279 0.345 0.398 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 118464128 0.276 21600.358 66212 03 0.333 0.298 0.381 0.461 OK
Sal Stewart1B 137527140 0.266 301020.335 65110 10 0.200 0.251 0.311 0.487 OK
Tyler StephensonC 10734787 0.251 14490.330 64210 21 0.500 0.243 0.312 0.438 OK
Eugenio SuárezDH 10536777 0.210 20590.301 65112 13 0.200 0.194 0.286 0.397 OK
JJ BledayLF 10838788 0.227 22550.336 55100 00 0.200 0.225 0.326 0.429 OK
Matt McLain2B 11037671 0.189 13360.283 54000 12 0.000 0.148 0.228 0.274 OK
Héctor RodríguezRF 227518 0.240 5110.305 53000 10 0.000 0.236 0.289 0.472 OK
Edwin Arroyo3B 4514633 0.226 050.269 55111 00 0.200 0.201 0.234 0.250 OK
TEAM TOTALS 50418 55 710 0.195

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane DrohanStarter 27107.33.86 1.3339.2110 5.131146104 5.1 6 1
Trevor MegillCloser 5352.41.55 0.82110.159 1.10001133 1.1 1 0
Abner UribeSetup Man 5146.62.12 1.0739.851 1.12111139 1.1 1 1
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6570.03.47 1.47113.5105 1.02110020 1.0 0 1
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1310.85.00 1.6676.78 1.00000013 0.0 0 0
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 21.20.00 1.6677.51 0.1000014 0.0 1 0
DL HallReliever 3843.82.47 1.14210.551 0.21221115 0.0 1 2

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Rhett LowderStarter 24108.55.31 1.5027.388 5.07551595 5.0 5 5
Emilio PagánCloser 3634.44.19 1.0479.436 2.00000125 0.2 1 0
Luis MeySetup Man 1822.63.98 1.50413.935 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6957.03.00 1.54410.969 2.00000325 2.0 3 0
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 3833.15.98 1.6018.431 0.23331121 0.0 1 3

Game Summary

MIL wins 8-5


Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox

MIN 67-73 (4.7 RPG / 4.97 RA)
6 - 5
CHW 73-67 (4.73 RPG / 4.45 RA)
WINNER: MIN wins 6-5 TARGET: MIN 6 - 5 CHW (MIN) Confidence: 53.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
MIN04001000168
CHW20200000156

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.9
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff9
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

MIN Season Quality

Record67-73
Win%0.479
Run Diff-38
RD/Game-0.271

CHW Season Quality

Record73-67
Win%0.521
Run Diff39
RD/Game0.279

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3587; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Luke KeaschallRF 130450125 0.278 9440.368 55211 02 0.400 0.291 0.360 0.433 OK
Brooks Lee3B 131501125 0.250 22760.297 55111 01 0.200 0.251 0.283 0.390 OK
Kody Clemens2B 122453107 0.236 24700.296 54211 12 0.500 0.208 0.270 0.460 OK
Ryan JeffersC 7326172 0.276 13500.371 54000 11 0.000 0.261 0.335 0.571 OK
Josh BellDH 134494126 0.255 17830.319 43000 11 0.000 0.260 0.316 0.371 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 11136397 0.267 11450.346 43110 10 0.333 0.253 0.324 0.413 OK
Royce Lewis1B 10538791 0.235 14510.302 44113 02 0.250 0.217 0.275 0.379 OK
Kaelen CulpepperSS 228024 0.300 390.352 44110 01 0.250 0.247 0.286 0.382 OK
Walker JenkinsCF 6203 0.150 130.292 43000 11 0.000 0.170 0.284 0.346 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40358 66 511 0.229

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 119412109 0.265 8410.364 44212 01 0.500 0.264 0.336 0.381 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 137510128 0.251 29760.362 43010 11 0.000 0.283 0.376 0.434 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 10537680 0.213 29590.354 44000 03 0.000 0.197 0.342 0.426 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 12337992 0.243 14700.303 44212 01 0.500 0.217 0.276 0.373 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 132498106 0.213 29790.294 43000 10 0.000 0.203 0.273 0.403 OK
Braden MontgomeryRF 7125958 0.224 5350.315 44110 00 0.250 0.216 0.301 0.328 OK
Tristan PetersCF 128378105 0.278 12520.341 44111 01 0.250 0.277 0.333 0.477 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 133498136 0.273 12510.345 44000 02 0.000 0.255 0.324 0.361 OK
Kyle TeelC 000 0.000 000.000 33000 01 0.000 0.239 0.301 0.396
TEAM TOTALS 35336 55 210 0.182

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zebby MatthewsStarter 19110.64.64 1.2757.693 6.044416104 6.0 6 4
Yoendrys GómezCloser 4737.22.90 1.42510.242 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Jeff HoffmanSetup Man 118.54.24 1.76514.814 0.2000008 0.2 0 0
A.J. MinterMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1410.90.83 1.0098.310 1.00000214 1.0 2 0
Andrew MorrisMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5457.24.41 1.5219.359 0.12111014 0.1 0 1

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Erick FeddeStarter 29119.64.29 1.4136.688 4.235557100 4.2 7 5
Grant TaylorCloser 4151.92.60 1.11813.276 1.11000128 1.1 1 0
Sean NewcombSetup Man 4660.22.84 1.2469.664 1.11000120 1.1 1 0
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4840.63.33 1.4539.844 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4233.74.54 1.78013.149 0.23110217 0.2 2 1

Game Summary

MIN wins 6-5


New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres

NYY 80-60 (4.54 RPG / 3.72 RA)
6 - 3
SD 73-67 (4.24 RPG / 4.17 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 6-3 TARGET: NYY 6 - 3 SD (NYY) Confidence: 64.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
NYY02000210167
SD00000003038

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.7
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff15
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

SD Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

NYY Season Quality

Record80-60
Win%0.571
Run Diff115
RD/Game0.821

SD Season Quality

Record73-67
Win%0.521
Run Diff10
RD/Game0.071

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.7267; margin adjustment: -0.3052; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ben RiceDH 131493125 0.254 34830.349 44110 00 0.250 0.268 0.337 0.440 OK
Cody BellingerLF 111412111 0.269 12600.351 44112 02 0.250 0.318 0.377 0.443 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 269628 0.292 5120.337 44110 00 0.250 0.216 0.256 0.399 OK
Spencer JonesRF 6418845 0.239 9280.311 44111 00 0.250 0.254 0.323 0.475 OK
Trent GrishamCF 11541086 0.210 17580.304 44100 01 0.250 0.146 0.249 0.269 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 127443103 0.233 19550.309 44000 00 0.000 0.278 0.358 0.473 OK
George Lombard Jr.SS 237920 0.253 260.310 43111 11 0.333 0.239 0.298 0.345 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 9627460 0.219 10320.286 43112 10 0.333 0.134 0.220 0.219 OK
Austin WellsC 10329055 0.190 10280.277 44000 01 0.000 0.203 0.276 0.383 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36347 66 25 0.206

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 136543154 0.284 19690.349 55210 02 0.400 0.274 0.321 0.517 OK
Samad TaylorLF 299632 0.333 1110.418 44111 01 0.250 0.287 0.362 0.386 OK
Manny Machado3B 136506111 0.219 24750.306 44100 01 0.250 0.229 0.315 0.345 OK
Ty France1B 108367107 0.292 20620.358 44112 02 0.250 0.275 0.341 0.502 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 136531128 0.241 22700.293 44000 01 0.000 0.227 0.270 0.379 OK
Austin HaysDH 12327 0.219 130.219 44100 00 0.250 0.213 0.226 0.317 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 13345299 0.219 11510.321 43100 10 0.333 0.224 0.330 0.305 OK
Luis CampusanoC 5415543 0.277 5230.378 43000 11 0.000 0.201 0.290 0.321 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 8730265 0.215 4260.301 44100 00 0.250 0.149 0.224 0.243 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37358 33 28 0.229

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Max FriedStarter 1687.92.87 1.0248.583 5.22002685 5.2 6 0
David BednarCloser 5656.62.86 1.09510.868 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Brent HeadrickSetup Man 7156.72.38 1.46413.887 1.04330025 1.0 0 3
Paul BlackburnMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5469.61.81 1.1498.364 1.11000220 1.1 2 0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Walker BuehlerStarter 27127.64.80 1.3957.8111 5.15440486 5.1 4 4
Mason MillerCloser 5554.31.33 0.88417.2104 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Adrian MorejonSetup Man 6465.83.15 1.23112.390 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Bradgley RodriguezMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5753.72.18 1.19211.267 1.21112132 1.2 1 1

Game Summary

NYY wins 6-3


Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners

OAK 55-86 (4.38 RPG / 5.74 RA)
5 - 6
SEA 66-75 (3.96 RPG / 4.45 RA)
WINNER: SEA wins 6-5 TARGET: OAK 5 - 6 SEA (SEA) Confidence: 54.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
OAK100000400511
SEA20220000x610

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed5.4
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2W

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff-7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

OAK Season Quality

Record55-86
Win%0.390
Run Diff-191
RD/Game-1.355

SEA Season Quality

Record66-75
Win%0.468
Run Diff-68
RD/Game-0.482

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6249; margin adjustment: 0.2625; applied: True

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Henry BolteCF 9433693 0.277 8300.350 55111 00 0.200 0.284 0.340 0.419 OK
Jeff McNeil1B 122404109 0.270 7500.317 55200 01 0.400 0.276 0.318 0.395 OK
Zack Gelof3B 8631481 0.258 16400.325 55111 02 0.200 0.238 0.296 0.461 OK
Lawrence ButlerRF 12639191 0.233 12490.323 54100 12 0.250 0.285 0.363 0.401 OK
Carlos CortesLF 10329376 0.259 8380.327 53112 20 0.333 0.260 0.314 0.385 OK
Jonah HeimC 7826957 0.212 12340.267 54310 11 0.750 0.224 0.267 0.413 OK
Max MuncyDH 7222849 0.215 7260.286 55111 02 0.200 0.207 0.271 0.340 OK
Donovan Walton2B 357818 0.231 290.412 53100 11 0.333 0.184 0.290 0.393 OK
Alika WilliamsSS 6016645 0.271 3140.301 44000 01 0.000 0.268 0.296 0.438 OK
TEAM TOTALS 443811 55 510 0.289

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Randy ArozarenaLF 133495135 0.273 22660.370 44000 02 0.000 0.256 0.329 0.498 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 123392100 0.255 21630.327 43312 10 1.000 0.251 0.310 0.481 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 129515126 0.245 20600.304 44212 00 0.500 0.231 0.278 0.366 OK
Cal RaleighC 10537765 0.172 20560.286 44111 02 0.250 0.219 0.312 0.501 OK
Josh Naylor1B 131513136 0.265 10480.324 44210 00 0.500 0.225 0.274 0.300 OK
Cole Young2B 140513126 0.246 16570.309 44111 00 0.250 0.218 0.268 0.341 OK
J.P. CrawfordSS 9533374 0.222 10310.343 44000 01 0.000 0.294 0.409 0.393 OK
Lazaro MontesRF 293 0.333 130.400 44000 01 0.000 0.252 0.314 0.420 OK
Brock Rodden3B 15469 0.196 040.309 33110 00 0.333 0.203 0.314 0.291 OK
TEAM TOTALS 353410 66 16 0.294

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kade MorrisStarter 514.210.14 2.1836.310 3.09551469 3.0 4 5
Elvis AlvaradoCloser 4538.74.65 1.37012.654 2.00000024 2.0 0 0
Hogan HarrisSetup Man 6449.64.17 1.79414.781 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Luis MedinaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4859.03.51 1.47512.280 1.11110120 1.1 1 1
Scott BlewettMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1521.03.00 1.4299.422 0.2000008 0.2 0 0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan GilbertStarter 27156.63.51 1.0609.5166 5.241156115 5.2 6 1
Andrés MuñozCloser 5247.34.19 1.22615.481 1.01000123 1.0 1 0
José A. FerrerSetup Man 6350.34.29 1.5908.145 0.25440023 0.2 0 4
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6652.23.97 1.66710.963 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Gabe SpeierMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4632.83.02 1.2809.635 0.21000211 0.2 2 0

Game Summary

SEA wins 6-5


San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets

SF 59-84 (4.19 RPG / 4.69 RA)
4 - 5
NYM 64-77 (4.16 RPG / 4.49 RA)
WINNER: NYM wins 5-4 TARGET: SF 4 - 5 NYM (NYM) Confidence: 54.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
SF21000001048
NYM30000011x511

SF Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.8
Avg Allowed5.6
Run Diff2
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.2
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-11
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

SF Season Quality

Record58-83
Win%0.411
Run Diff-73
RD/Game-0.518

NYM Season Quality

Record63-77
Win%0.450
Run Diff-50
RD/Game-0.357

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0161; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Drew GilbertCF 10629971 0.237 8360.308 55211 02 0.400 0.222 0.279 0.357 OK
Rafael Devers1B 140524133 0.254 31820.336 54000 12 0.000 0.266 0.359 0.563 OK
Bryce EldridgeDH 9533888 0.260 15450.355 44211 02 0.500 0.297 0.392 0.459 OK
Turner HillLF 154414 0.318 0110.400 44111 02 0.250 0.311 0.389 0.427 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 126480137 0.285 8490.328 44111 01 0.250 0.179 0.231 0.276 OK
Drew CavanaughC 4211227 0.241 090.325 43000 11 0.000 0.162 0.244 0.229 OK
Osleivis Basabe3B 289520 0.211 4100.262 43200 10 0.667 0.207 0.248 0.352 OK
Nate Furman2B 13254 0.160 030.222 44000 00 0.000 0.161 0.221 0.204 OK
Christian KossSS 4513527 0.200 150.234 44000 01 0.000 0.197 0.225 0.262 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38358 44 311 0.229

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Francisco LindorSS 8131974 0.232 15360.314 44211 00 0.500 0.222 0.287 0.417 OK
Juan SotoLF 8730787 0.283 23550.400 43112 01 0.333 0.255 0.355 0.552 OK
Bo Bichette3B 134534142 0.266 14660.312 44000 01 0.000 0.268 0.313 0.388 OK
Mark VientosDH 7424252 0.215 12360.253 44210 00 0.500 0.219 0.256 0.432 OK
Carson BengeRF 130498137 0.275 16530.336 44100 01 0.250 0.274 0.329 0.396 OK
Marcus Semien2B 11741292 0.223 14440.289 44111 00 0.250 0.239 0.311 0.346 OK
Christopher Morel1B 7143 0.214 010.312 44200 00 0.500 0.182 0.241 0.259 OK
Francisco AlvarezC 9330869 0.224 12320.310 44100 02 0.250 0.193 0.257 0.302 OK
Nick MorabitoCF 6142 0.143 030.250 44111 00 0.250 0.203 0.214 0.311 OK
TEAM TOTALS 363511 55 05 0.314

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Matt WilkinsonStarter 311.24.82 1.1614.86 4.06330380 4.0 3 3
Dylan SmithCloser 3428.43.49 1.47913.041 1.21000028 1.2 0 0
Trent HarrisSetup Man 1112.33.66 1.46313.218 1.12110023 1.1 0 1
Carson SeymourMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1419.94.97 1.6587.717 1.02110219 1.0 2 1

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nolan McLeanStarter 27153.83.10 1.13810.1172 6.052238111 6.0 8 2
Kodai SengaCloser 2452.27.76 1.72411.265 1.00110213 1.0 2 1
Daniel DuarteSetup Man 2123.22.33 0.86210.126 1.02110019 1.0 0 1
Nathan LavenderMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 129.40.00 0.85113.414 1.01000116 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

NYM wins 5-4


St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies

STL 70-71 (4.49 RPG / 4.55 RA)
6 - 5
COL 54-86 (4.68 RPG / 5.68 RA)
WINNER: STL wins 6-5 TARGET: STL 6 - 5 COL (STL) Confidence: 54.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
STL021300000611
COL00011030057

STL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed6.1
Run Diff-9
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

COL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

STL Season Quality

Record70-71
Win%0.496
Run Diff-9
RD/Game-0.064

COL Season Quality

Record54-86
Win%0.386
Run Diff-140
RD/Game-1.000

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.7151; margin adjustment: -0.3003; applied: True

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Bryan Torres2B 5012031 0.258 3160.316 55313 00 0.600 0.290 0.345 0.397 OK
Iván HerreraDH 137518125 0.241 13540.352 54111 10 0.250 0.265 0.337 0.349 OK
Alec Burleson1B 136520146 0.281 21980.344 55110 00 0.200 0.165 0.232 0.280 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 134523151 0.289 26940.346 44110 00 0.250 0.299 0.341 0.499 OK
Leonardo BernalC 3134 0.308 140.308 44000 01 0.000 0.322 0.329 0.494 OK
Joshua BaezLF 185813 0.224 6140.281 44100 01 0.250 0.243 0.278 0.615 OK
Nolan Gorman3B 6922041 0.186 8270.266 44210 00 0.500 0.156 0.239 0.274 OK
Thomas SaggeseSS 319122 0.242 4100.300 44212 00 0.500 0.280 0.342 0.510 OK
Nathan ChurchCF 10836088 0.244 10460.286 44000 01 0.000 0.267 0.303 0.377 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393811 66 13 0.289

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyCF 119459134 0.292 14710.331 55110 01 0.200 0.291 0.323 0.489 OK
Mickey MoniakRF 9834787 0.251 21600.288 55211 01 0.400 0.235 0.269 0.444 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 120449113 0.252 36730.318 54213 10 0.500 0.225 0.280 0.433 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 133474139 0.293 14630.385 53111 20 0.333 0.303 0.398 0.459 OK
Cole CarriggSS 6824464 0.262 6370.341 55000 03 0.000 0.254 0.318 0.421 OK
Connor Norby3B 217018 0.257 2100.342 43000 11 0.000 0.219 0.297 0.337 OK
Troy JohnstonDH 111352101 0.287 4460.352 43000 00 0.000 0.295 0.356 0.425 OK
Adael Amador2B 7187 0.389 270.500 42110 21 0.500 0.358 0.451 0.618 OK
Zac VeenLF 17349 0.265 280.342 44000 00 0.000 0.152 0.239 0.368 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41347 55 67 0.206

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andre PallanteStarter 24133.23.65 1.2696.697 6.032245111 6.0 5 2
Riley O'BrienCloser 5853.24.40 1.3169.355 1.03331126 1.0 1 3
George SorianoSetup Man 6353.34.90 1.52010.361 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6147.44.75 1.56111.058 1.01000116 1.0 1 0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryan FeltnerStarter 2199.15.99 1.5846.976 4.29661391 4.2 3 6
Jordan RomanoCloser 1917.32.08 1.1569.418 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Brennan BernardinoSetup Man 6546.33.11 1.3828.041 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4338.36.58 1.7239.239 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 3825.26.43 1.98411.833 0.1000004 0.1 0 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 5550.46.25 1.9449.553 0.21000011 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

STL wins 6-5


Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers

TB 83-57 (4.49 RPG / 4.16 RA)
3 - 4
TEX 70-71 (4.1 RPG / 4.4 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 4-3 TARGET: TB 3 - 4 TEX (TEX) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
TB10000000237
TEX00001001247

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.7
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff4
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

TB Season Quality

Record83-57
Win%0.593
Run Diff45
RD/Game0.321

TEX Season Quality

Record70-71
Win%0.496
Run Diff-42
RD/Game-0.298

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4965; margin adjustment: -0.2085; applied: True

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 134530162 0.306 21760.374 55110 01 0.200 0.301 0.359 0.469 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 135510141 0.276 17800.359 44100 00 0.250 0.226 0.302 0.373 OK
Junior Caminero3B 139531148 0.279 37880.365 44000 01 0.000 0.251 0.324 0.446 OK
Liam HicksC 237122 0.310 3130.405 42000 12 0.000 0.282 0.341 0.388 OK
Victor Mesa Jr.RF 5216837 0.220 10220.283 44212 00 0.500 0.157 0.218 0.290 OK
Chandler SimpsonLF 128495153 0.309 0310.336 44100 02 0.250 0.277 0.308 0.327 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 11839782 0.207 14430.290 44000 01 0.000 0.195 0.282 0.303 OK
Richie Palacios2B 10229967 0.224 6410.318 43100 00 0.333 0.191 0.274 0.324 OK
Taylor WallsSS 10834075 0.221 2330.307 44111 02 0.250 0.228 0.308 0.309 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 33 19 0.206

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc PedersonDH 12635584 0.237 24490.327 54000 11 0.000 0.198 0.276 0.393 OK
Corey SeagerSS 8029666 0.223 14370.323 54110 10 0.250 0.216 0.313 0.414 OK
Wyatt LangfordLF 8934186 0.252 15360.334 54100 12 0.250 0.219 0.308 0.381 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 135514138 0.268 14580.335 54112 11 0.250 0.279 0.343 0.423 OK
Ezequiel Duran2B 130460127 0.276 16760.337 44100 01 0.250 0.284 0.353 0.479 OK
Jake Burger1B 133485114 0.235 23790.296 44100 00 0.250 0.215 0.269 0.367 OK
Evan CarterCF 11934066 0.194 8340.288 43000 01 0.000 0.137 0.217 0.242 OK
Cody Freeman3B 257120 0.282 160.346 43111 11 0.333 0.252 0.304 0.349 OK
Elias DíazC 5416438 0.232 4190.260 43111 11 0.333 0.225 0.259 0.386 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40337 44 68 0.212

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nick MartinezStarter 26150.43.05 1.1245.491 6.021166118 6.0 6 2
Bryan BakerCloser 5653.61.51 0.89610.160 1.00000025 1.0 0 1
Kevin KellySetup Man 6055.12.29 0.9808.552 1.25330230 1.0 2 1

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Trevor WilliamsStarter 11.124.55 4.5458.21 4.24111687 4.2 6 1
Jacob LatzCloser 4857.41.25 0.71410.768 1.20000133 1.2 1 0
Jakob JunisSetup Man 4443.62.89 1.2167.235 1.20000121 1.2 1 0
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1611.14.05 1.89211.414 1.03220122 1.0 1 2

Game Summary

TEX wins 4-3


Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals

TOR 70-71 (4.01 RPG / 4.3 RA)
5 - 7
KC 63-78 (4.3 RPG / 4.9 RA)
WINNER: KC wins 7-5 TARGET: TOR 5 - 7 KC (KC) Confidence: 55.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
TOR010000022511
KC04000030079

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

KC Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.7
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff10
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TOR Season Quality

Record70-71
Win%0.496
Run Diff-41
RD/Game-0.291

KC Season Quality

Record63-78
Win%0.447
Run Diff-85
RD/Game-0.603

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2344; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brett BatemanCF 229130 0.330 070.380 55111 01 0.200 0.318 0.369 0.405 OK
George SpringerDH 105398100 0.251 14450.327 55213 02 0.400 0.303 0.358 0.488 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 125473123 0.260 8540.328 55110 01 0.200 0.240 0.309 0.361 OK
Alejandro KirkC 6121859 0.271 8320.339 43211 11 0.667 0.244 0.300 0.366 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 134493112 0.227 28780.302 44100 02 0.250 0.202 0.274 0.428 OK
Charles McAdoo2B 247418 0.243 2100.288 44000 00 0.000 0.162 0.218 0.251 OK
Ernie ClementSS 137521143 0.274 9440.301 44100 00 0.250 0.249 0.283 0.344 OK
Nathan LukesRF 10234391 0.265 10350.317 44100 01 0.250 0.259 0.296 0.389 OK
Myles StrawLF 10625158 0.231 3220.288 44210 00 0.500 0.259 0.333 0.380 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393811 55 18 0.289

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carter JensenC 129458106 0.231 22670.317 55114 00 0.200 0.266 0.342 0.623 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 121474134 0.283 16490.357 44110 01 0.250 0.236 0.312 0.369 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 128466131 0.281 23690.329 44010 01 0.000 0.292 0.325 0.465 OK
Salvador PerezDH 130502112 0.223 18650.268 44210 00 0.500 0.231 0.259 0.387 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 9334483 0.241 9420.331 44110 01 0.250 0.212 0.300 0.344 OK
Nick Loftin3B 9931375 0.240 7410.326 44211 00 0.500 0.188 0.272 0.358 OK
Michael Massey2B 10934897 0.279 11450.312 44000 01 0.000 0.279 0.318 0.443 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 12339189 0.228 6400.327 43000 00 0.000 0.205 0.297 0.330 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 7824156 0.232 6240.281 44212 01 0.500 0.229 0.271 0.327 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37369 77 05 0.250

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jameson TaillonStarter 28.03.38 1.5007.97 4.24440383 4.2 3 4
Louis VarlandCloser 6365.01.25 1.06211.986 1.14220136 1.1 1 2
Michael LorenzenSetup Man 23.09.00 2.0006.02 0.2011018 0.2 1 1
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6558.02.02 1.2765.435 2.11000020 1.1 0 0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Daniel Lynch IVStarter 5155.63.40 1.1697.446 5.04111886 5.0 8 1
Steven CruzCloser 5048.04.69 1.35410.757 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Nate PearsonSetup Man 1716.30.55 0.9208.315 1.24220033 1.2 0 2
Craig KimbrelMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 87.30.00 0.5486.25 1.03220022 1.0 0 2

Game Summary

KC wins 7-5


Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers

WAS 67-75 (5.18 RPG / 5.08 RA)
4 - 5
LAD 83-57 (4.91 RPG / 3.86 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 5-4 TARGET: WAS 4 - 5 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 56.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
WAS20000010146
LAD00400100x57

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff4
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff0
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

WAS Season Quality

Record67-75
Win%0.472
Run Diff14
RD/Game0.099

LAD Season Quality

Record83-57
Win%0.593
Run Diff147
RD/Game1.050

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6286; margin adjustment: 0.264; applied: True

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodLF 115441117 0.265 30730.391 54112 11 0.250 0.253 0.374 0.490 OK
Andrés ChaparroDH 6115037 0.247 9340.343 55000 02 0.000 0.246 0.328 0.465 OK
Dylan CrewsRF 8732971 0.216 10340.287 43000 12 0.000 0.203 0.259 0.309 OK
CJ Abrams2B 133506135 0.267 29940.343 44000 03 0.000 0.241 0.309 0.438 OK
Brady House3B 7426464 0.242 10410.302 44000 01 0.000 0.273 0.331 0.433 OK
Yohandy Morales1B 284 0.500 110.500 44210 01 0.500 0.238 0.247 0.479 OK
Harry FordC 247515 0.200 380.302 44212 01 0.500 0.149 0.244 0.283 OK
Jacob YoungCF 11337894 0.249 10420.310 43110 11 0.333 0.170 0.233 0.275 OK
Nasim NuñezSS 12340286 0.214 1350.293 42000 20 0.000 0.202 0.271 0.242 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38336 44 512 0.182

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Tommy EdmanCF 5921559 0.274 5270.347 44111 01 0.250 0.289 0.329 0.419 OK
Mookie BettsSS 10139897 0.244 17530.303 43111 10 0.333 0.245 0.307 0.419 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 10236393 0.256 12470.319 43110 10 0.333 0.299 0.355 0.464 OK
Will SmithC 5318244 0.242 6250.325 43000 11 0.000 0.219 0.303 0.360 OK
Max Muncy3B 127414101 0.244 26680.342 43011 10 0.000 0.133 0.253 0.262 OK
Miguel Rojas2B 8018852 0.277 3200.306 44000 02 0.000 0.231 0.266 0.399 OK
Alex CallDH 6113935 0.252 1180.346 44212 00 0.500 0.257 0.344 0.333 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 128461104 0.226 11580.320 44100 01 0.250 0.191 0.298 0.292 OK
Enrique Hernández1B 224911 0.224 250.269 33100 00 0.333 0.171 0.219 0.288 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35317 55 45 0.226

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jackson KentStarter 418.45.87 1.7938.317 4.15444487 4.1 4 4
Clayton BeeterCloser 4640.93.96 1.4439.945 1.12110023 1.1 0 1
Orlando RibaltaSetup Man 4538.84.18 1.3409.742 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Erik TolmanMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 56.20.00 0.80611.68 1.10000017 1.1 0 0

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Blake SnellStarter 526.02.42 1.07712.536 5.122211087 5.1 10 2
Tanner ScottCloser 6051.12.82 1.03711.867 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
Edgardo HenriquezSetup Man 5648.23.17 1.12012.064 1.00002021 1.0 0 0
Brock StewartMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2118.12.98 1.1059.419 1.22112135 1.2 1 1

Game Summary

LAD wins 5-4