| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ WAS | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 5-4 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| BAL @ COL | 7 - 5 | 7 - 5 | BAL | BAL | BAL wins 7-5 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| CHW @ HOU | 5 - 6 | 5 - 6 | HOU | HOU | HOU wins 6-5 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| DET @ MIN | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | MIN | MIN | MIN wins 5-4 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| MIA @ KC | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 | MIA | MIA | MIA wins 5-4 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| MIL @ CHC | 6 - 4 | 6 - 4 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 6-4 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| NYM @ TB | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | TB | TB | TB wins 4-3 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| NYY @ LAA | 4 - 2 | 4 - 2 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 4-2 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| OAK @ TEX | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | TEX | TEX | TEX wins 5-4 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| PHI @ ARI | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 | PHI | PHI | PHI wins 5-4 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| SD @ CIN | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 | SD | SD | SD wins 5-4 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| SEA @ BOS | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | BOS | BOS | BOS wins 5-4 | 52% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| SF @ PIT | 5 - 6 | 5 - 6 | PIT | PIT | PIT wins 6-5 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| STL @ LAD | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | LAD | LAD | LAD wins 5-4 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| TOR @ CLE | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 | CLE | CLE | CLE wins 3-2 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| WAS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
Quality edge: -0.4764; margin adjustment: -0.2001; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Drake Baldwin | DH | 115 | 448 | 125 | 0.279 | 22 | 69 | 0.358 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.200 | 0.300 | 0.362 | 0.476 | OK |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | 85 | 321 | 77 | 0.240 | 13 | 36 | 0.342 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.343 | 0.379 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 138 | 533 | 136 | 0.255 | 36 | 78 | 0.330 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.247 | 0.313 | 0.473 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 138 | 524 | 135 | 0.258 | 21 | 68 | 0.313 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.245 | 0.294 | 0.408 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 132 | 504 | 151 | 0.300 | 24 | 80 | 0.323 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.309 | 0.327 | 0.607 | OK |
| Sean Murphy | C | 17 | 58 | 13 | 0.224 | 2 | 4 | 0.262 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.291 | 0.331 | 0.500 | OK |
| Mike Yastrzemski | LF | 114 | 301 | 67 | 0.223 | 9 | 33 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.164 | 0.239 | 0.273 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 136 | 483 | 107 | 0.222 | 15 | 61 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.211 | 0.273 | 0.329 | OK |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SS | 30 | 89 | 10 | 0.112 | 0 | 5 | 0.202 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.223 | 0.289 | 0.250 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 37 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | RF | 114 | 437 | 116 | 0.265 | 30 | 73 | 0.393 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.241 | 0.362 | 0.459 | OK |
| Abimelec Ortiz | DH | 28 | 90 | 19 | 0.211 | 5 | 10 | 0.253 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.211 | 0.255 | 0.387 | OK |
| Dylan Crews | CF | 86 | 326 | 71 | 0.218 | 10 | 34 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.277 | 0.355 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | 2B | 132 | 502 | 135 | 0.269 | 29 | 94 | 0.346 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.248 | 0.318 | 0.449 | OK |
| Andrés Chaparro | 3B | 60 | 148 | 37 | 0.250 | 9 | 34 | 0.343 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.247 | 0.320 | 0.466 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | LF | 139 | 529 | 135 | 0.255 | 20 | 80 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.273 | 0.347 | 0.547 | OK |
| Yohandy Morales | 1B | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0.600 | 1 | 1 | 0.600 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.290 | 0.297 | 0.648 | OK |
| Keibert Ruiz | C | 88 | 293 | 83 | 0.283 | 9 | 45 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.306 | 0.342 | 0.474 | OK |
| Nasim Nuñez | SS | 122 | 399 | 86 | 0.216 | 1 | 35 | 0.295 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.204 | 0.273 | 0.244 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Grant Holmes | Starter | 27 | 127.4 | 3.96 | 1.405 | 7.4 | 105 | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 85 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 50 | 48.9 | 2.94 | 1.227 | 9.6 | 52 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 64 | 53.3 | 2.70 | 0.957 | 12.5 | 74 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 48 | 54.3 | 2.65 | 1.234 | 12.6 | 76 | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 1.1 | 3 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Brad Lord | Starter | 33 | 62.9 | 4.15 | 1.320 | 9.2 | 64 | 5.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 91 | 5.0 | 5 | 3 |
| Clayton Beeter | Closer | 46 | 40.9 | 3.96 | 1.443 | 9.9 | 45 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Orlando Ribalta | Setup Man | 45 | 38.8 | 4.18 | 1.340 | 9.7 | 42 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Will Dion | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 7 | 16.5 | 2.18 | 0.909 | 9.3 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tom Cosgrove | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 18 | 11.9 | 10.59 | 2.017 | 10.6 | 14 | 0.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
ATL wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| COL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
Quality edge: -0.9515; margin adjustment: -0.3996; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jackson Holliday | DH | 82 | 265 | 62 | 0.234 | 7 | 28 | 0.308 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.314 | 0.385 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 136 | 510 | 138 | 0.271 | 32 | 91 | 0.362 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.341 | 0.440 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 134 | 538 | 119 | 0.221 | 21 | 56 | 0.304 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.236 | 0.305 | 0.466 | OK |
| Luis Robert Jr. | LF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.230 | 0.304 | 0.413 | |
| Samuel Basallo | C | 94 | 317 | 73 | 0.230 | 17 | 49 | 0.295 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.218 | 0.284 | 0.387 | OK |
| Coby Mayo | 3B | 104 | 330 | 73 | 0.221 | 19 | 55 | 0.287 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.323 | 0.502 | OK |
| Dylan Beavers | RF | 79 | 242 | 61 | 0.252 | 6 | 31 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.326 | 0.406 | OK |
| Blaze Alexander | 2B | 74 | 229 | 70 | 0.306 | 4 | 29 | 0.360 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.314 | 0.361 | 0.424 | OK |
| Colton Cowser | CF | 109 | 286 | 63 | 0.220 | 12 | 34 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.307 | 0.405 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 34 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jake McCarthy | LF | 118 | 455 | 132 | 0.290 | 14 | 70 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.261 | 0.286 | 0.422 | OK |
| Connor Norby | 3B | 20 | 65 | 18 | 0.277 | 2 | 10 | 0.365 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.303 | 0.342 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | C | 119 | 444 | 112 | 0.252 | 36 | 73 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.236 | 0.293 | 0.441 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 132 | 469 | 137 | 0.292 | 14 | 62 | 0.384 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.271 | 0.379 | 0.466 | OK |
| Cole Carrigg | CF | 67 | 239 | 61 | 0.255 | 6 | 36 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.298 | 0.391 | OK |
| Jordan Beck | RF | 47 | 132 | 27 | 0.205 | 1 | 11 | 0.259 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.268 | 0.311 | OK |
| Adael Amador | DH | 6 | 14 | 5 | 0.357 | 2 | 7 | 0.471 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.331 | 0.435 | 0.761 | OK |
| Ryan Ritter | 2B | 10 | 17 | 3 | 0.176 | 0 | 1 | 0.222 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.188 | 0.236 | 0.219 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 123 | 406 | 86 | 0.212 | 10 | 41 | 0.260 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.159 | 0.208 | 0.260 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 33 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Trevor Rogers | Starter | 25 | 134.4 | 4.49 | 1.280 | 8.1 | 121 | 5.2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 95 | 5.2 | 4 | 5 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Closer | 49 | 39.6 | 3.41 | 1.490 | 8.2 | 36 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Yennier Cano | Setup Man | 57 | 35.6 | 2.78 | 1.096 | 10.1 | 40 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rico Garcia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 64 | 51.2 | 2.99 | 1.016 | 10.5 | 60 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Starter | 24 | 122.4 | 5.37 | 1.397 | 5.5 | 75 | 4.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 76 | 4.2 | 3 | 3 |
| Brennan Bernardino | Setup Man | 65 | 46.3 | 3.11 | 1.382 | 8.0 | 41 | 2.0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 42 | 2.0 | 1 | 4 |
| Jimmy Herget | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 42 | 37.2 | 6.77 | 1.747 | 9.2 | 38 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 |
BAL wins 7-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| HOU | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 |
Quality edge: -0.4845; margin adjustment: -0.2035; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 117 | 405 | 108 | 0.267 | 8 | 40 | 0.366 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.263 | 0.339 | 0.383 | OK |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1B | 103 | 368 | 79 | 0.215 | 29 | 59 | 0.358 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.205 | 0.360 | 0.444 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 135 | 502 | 126 | 0.251 | 29 | 76 | 0.364 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.280 | 0.387 | 0.436 | OK |
| Andrew Benintendi | DH | 121 | 373 | 92 | 0.247 | 14 | 70 | 0.306 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.270 | 0.318 | 0.452 | OK |
| Braden Montgomery | RF | 69 | 254 | 57 | 0.224 | 5 | 35 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.217 | 0.294 | 0.340 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 130 | 491 | 106 | 0.216 | 29 | 79 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.256 | 0.327 | 0.508 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 131 | 491 | 134 | 0.273 | 12 | 51 | 0.345 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.283 | 0.352 | 0.403 | OK |
| Tristan Peters | CF | 126 | 373 | 103 | 0.276 | 12 | 52 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.277 | 0.336 | 0.475 | OK |
| Drew Romo | C | 56 | 175 | 25 | 0.143 | 7 | 16 | 0.234 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.162 | 0.253 | 0.274 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 35 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0.257 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeremy Peña | SS | 88 | 352 | 99 | 0.281 | 17 | 46 | 0.336 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.303 | 0.454 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 136 | 487 | 155 | 0.318 | 37 | 94 | 0.436 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.275 | 0.401 | 0.551 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 131 | 476 | 120 | 0.252 | 18 | 74 | 0.352 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.203 | 0.296 | 0.372 | OK |
| Jose Altuve | 2B | 111 | 431 | 106 | 0.246 | 14 | 41 | 0.309 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.225 | 0.287 | 0.354 | OK |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | 24 | 93 | 16 | 0.172 | 3 | 10 | 0.238 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.199 | 0.256 | 0.342 | OK |
| Taylor Trammell | LF | 74 | 206 | 43 | 0.209 | 7 | 20 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.206 | 0.273 | 0.346 | OK |
| Cam Smith | RF | 126 | 438 | 93 | 0.212 | 17 | 49 | 0.277 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.185 | 0.237 | 0.360 | OK |
| LaMonte Wade Jr. | 1B | 39 | 102 | 21 | 0.206 | 3 | 17 | 0.314 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.197 | 0.292 | 0.344 | OK |
| Christian Vázquez | C | 77 | 225 | 48 | 0.213 | 7 | 25 | 0.267 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.253 | 0.319 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 33 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Davis Martin | Starter | 24 | 122.2 | 4.42 | 1.358 | 8.2 | 111 | 5.0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 99 | 5.0 | 7 | 5 |
| Grant Taylor | Closer | 41 | 51.9 | 2.60 | 1.118 | 13.2 | 76 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Sean Newcomb | Setup Man | 46 | 60.2 | 2.84 | 1.246 | 9.6 | 64 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 48 | 40.6 | 3.33 | 1.453 | 9.8 | 44 | 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Hayden Wesneski | Starter | 6 | 32.2 | 3.91 | 1.211 | 7.8 | 28 | 5.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 98 | 5.1 | 3 | 3 |
| Josh Hader | Closer | 36 | 35.4 | 0.51 | 0.621 | 12.2 | 48 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Okert | Setup Man | 68 | 58.8 | 2.45 | 1.003 | 10.4 | 68 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bryan Abreu | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 54 | 47.3 | 4.38 | 1.543 | 12.9 | 68 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 31 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 60 | 56.5 | 5.10 | 1.363 | 9.4 | 59 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
HOU wins 6-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
Quality edge: 0.0017; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kevin McGonigle | 3B | 133 | 509 | 140 | 0.275 | 14 | 58 | 0.376 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.255 | 0.350 | 0.385 | OK |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 2B | 87 | 248 | 67 | 0.270 | 8 | 35 | 0.312 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.283 | 0.330 | 0.482 | OK |
| Colt Keith | 1B | 123 | 352 | 90 | 0.256 | 9 | 31 | 0.312 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.281 | 0.348 | OK |
| Riley Greene | DH | 116 | 422 | 115 | 0.273 | 16 | 55 | 0.365 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 0.342 | 0.412 | OK |
| Eduardo Valencia | C | 26 | 77 | 24 | 0.312 | 6 | 17 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.173 | 0.188 | 0.399 | OK |
| Brett Callahan | LF | 13 | 32 | 9 | 0.281 | 1 | 6 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.196 | 0.246 | 0.345 | OK |
| Max Clark | CF | 29 | 101 | 24 | 0.238 | 2 | 13 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.229 | 0.278 | 0.392 | OK |
| John Peck | SS | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.148 | 0.158 | 0.211 | |
| Zach McKinstry | RF | 107 | 329 | 71 | 0.216 | 4 | 26 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.181 | 0.250 | 0.259 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Luke Keaschall | RF | 129 | 446 | 124 | 0.278 | 9 | 43 | 0.366 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.300 | 0.368 | 0.449 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | 3B | 130 | 495 | 122 | 0.246 | 22 | 76 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.228 | 0.264 | 0.398 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | 2B | 121 | 449 | 107 | 0.238 | 24 | 70 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.242 | 0.300 | 0.501 | OK |
| Ryan Jeffers | C | 72 | 255 | 71 | 0.278 | 13 | 49 | 0.375 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.273 | 0.352 | 0.616 | OK |
| Josh Bell | DH | 133 | 490 | 124 | 0.253 | 17 | 83 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.308 | 0.378 | OK |
| Trevor Larnach | LF | 110 | 360 | 96 | 0.267 | 11 | 44 | 0.347 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.327 | 0.411 | OK |
| Royce Lewis | 1B | 104 | 381 | 90 | 0.236 | 14 | 49 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.252 | 0.313 | 0.449 | OK |
| Kaelen Culpepper | SS | 21 | 75 | 24 | 0.320 | 3 | 9 | 0.373 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.293 | 0.335 | 0.440 | OK |
| Walker Jenkins | CF | 5 | 16 | 3 | 0.188 | 1 | 3 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.211 | 0.316 | 0.407 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0.265 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Drew Anderson | Starter | 45 | 78.3 | 4.25 | 1.456 | 11.0 | 96 | 4.1 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 95 | 4.1 | 2 | 4 |
| Kenley Jansen | Closer | 39 | 33.1 | 3.81 | 1.208 | 11.1 | 41 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Holton | Setup Man | 59 | 52.5 | 3.60 | 1.543 | 8.6 | 50 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 55 | 47.4 | 3.99 | 1.751 | 8.2 | 43 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Waguespack | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 26 | 28.2 | 3.19 | 1.099 | 6.4 | 20 | 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dean Kremer | Starter | 5 | 26.2 | 4.47 | 1.145 | 7.9 | 23 | 5.0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 104 | 5.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Yoendrys Gómez | Closer | 46 | 36.0 | 3.00 | 1.444 | 10.2 | 41 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeff Hoffman | Setup Man | 10 | 7.5 | 4.80 | 2.000 | 13.2 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Andrew Morris | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 54 | 57.2 | 4.41 | 1.521 | 9.3 | 59 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 |
| A.J. Minter | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 13 | 9.8 | 0.92 | 1.020 | 8.3 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
MIN wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
Quality edge: -0.3828; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Heriberto Hernández | LF | 105 | 354 | 81 | 0.229 | 22 | 58 | 0.308 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.204 | 0.290 | 0.479 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 135 | 541 | 165 | 0.305 | 10 | 61 | 0.340 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.272 | 0.303 | 0.413 | OK |
| Kyle Stowers | 1B | 102 | 376 | 92 | 0.245 | 17 | 57 | 0.330 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.323 | 0.494 | OK |
| Agustín Ramírez | DH | 50 | 165 | 39 | 0.236 | 2 | 17 | 0.328 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.240 | 0.327 | 0.340 | OK |
| Javier Sanoja | 3B | 110 | 368 | 104 | 0.283 | 6 | 52 | 0.317 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.291 | 0.327 | 0.406 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 130 | 440 | 92 | 0.209 | 8 | 31 | 0.330 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.200 | 0.221 | 0.321 | 0.340 | OK |
| Esteury Ruiz | RF | 72 | 168 | 40 | 0.238 | 6 | 11 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.191 | 0.260 | 0.330 | OK |
| Jared Serna | 2B | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.055 | 0.070 | 0.091 | |
| Joe Mack | C | 82 | 248 | 58 | 0.234 | 12 | 38 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.242 | 0.289 | 0.376 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 38 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carter Jensen | C | 127 | 450 | 101 | 0.224 | 19 | 62 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.224 | 0.307 | 0.449 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 119 | 467 | 133 | 0.285 | 16 | 49 | 0.357 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 0.336 | 0.407 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | RF | 126 | 457 | 128 | 0.280 | 23 | 66 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.285 | 0.320 | 0.473 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | DH | 128 | 494 | 110 | 0.223 | 17 | 62 | 0.266 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.224 | 0.249 | 0.361 | OK |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | 91 | 335 | 82 | 0.245 | 9 | 41 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.236 | 0.330 | 0.401 | OK |
| Nick Loftin | 3B | 97 | 308 | 73 | 0.237 | 7 | 41 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.302 | 0.438 | OK |
| Michael Massey | 2B | 107 | 340 | 93 | 0.274 | 11 | 43 | 0.308 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.286 | 0.327 | 0.467 | OK |
| John Rave | LF | 29 | 83 | 18 | 0.217 | 3 | 8 | 0.278 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.280 | 0.390 | OK |
| Kyle Isbel | CF | 76 | 234 | 54 | 0.231 | 6 | 24 | 0.281 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.267 | 0.342 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 33 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Eury Pérez | Starter | 24 | 129.5 | 3.47 | 1.143 | 9.9 | 142 | 5.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 73 | 5.1 | 7 | 2 |
| Calvin Faucher | Closer | 59 | 51.2 | 4.39 | 1.523 | 11.2 | 64 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Zuber | Setup Man | 35 | 26.3 | 4.79 | 1.559 | 11.6 | 34 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 56 | 49.8 | 3.80 | 1.305 | 11.9 | 66 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Noah Cameron | Starter | 26 | 147.0 | 4.04 | 1.238 | 8.0 | 131 | 6.1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 117 | 6.1 | 11 | 0 |
| Steven Cruz | Closer | 49 | 47.0 | 4.79 | 1.383 | 10.7 | 56 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Nate Pearson | Setup Man | 15 | 14.2 | 0.63 | 0.915 | 8.2 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex Lange | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 51 | 48.7 | 6.28 | 1.622 | 10.0 | 54 | 0.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 0.2 | 1 | 2 |
MIA wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| CHC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
Quality edge: -0.1064; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 102 | 423 | 121 | 0.286 | 20 | 57 | 0.347 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.257 | 0.306 | 0.441 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 125 | 492 | 129 | 0.262 | 17 | 79 | 0.353 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.257 | 0.334 | 0.409 | OK |
| Andrew Vaughn | 1B | 87 | 253 | 79 | 0.312 | 5 | 40 | 0.391 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.319 | 0.382 | 0.453 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 126 | 486 | 132 | 0.272 | 13 | 70 | 0.341 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.800 | 0.338 | 0.395 | 0.491 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | RF | 120 | 405 | 110 | 0.272 | 22 | 74 | 0.389 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 0.417 | 0.469 | OK |
| Luis Lara | CF | 39 | 128 | 35 | 0.273 | 1 | 19 | 0.333 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.314 | 0.368 | 0.426 | OK |
| Gary Sánchez | DH | 73 | 199 | 41 | 0.206 | 11 | 34 | 0.340 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.192 | 0.307 | 0.408 | OK |
| Joey Ortiz | 3B | 99 | 301 | 76 | 0.252 | 8 | 39 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.272 | 0.331 | 0.425 | OK |
| Cooper Pratt | SS | 50 | 157 | 42 | 0.268 | 3 | 22 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.273 | 0.331 | 0.386 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 40 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 0.325 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 137 | 528 | 149 | 0.282 | 38 | 91 | 0.376 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.261 | 0.325 | 0.586 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | DH | 120 | 458 | 128 | 0.279 | 24 | 80 | 0.374 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.400 | 0.296 | 0.390 | 0.527 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 135 | 539 | 140 | 0.260 | 23 | 77 | 0.347 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.400 | 0.260 | 0.327 | 0.552 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 135 | 516 | 124 | 0.240 | 16 | 66 | 0.349 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.204 | 0.302 | 0.371 | OK |
| Nico Hoerner | SS | 134 | 534 | 141 | 0.264 | 8 | 62 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.273 | 0.320 | 0.377 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 130 | 475 | 105 | 0.221 | 23 | 61 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.156 | 0.253 | 0.333 | OK |
| Matt Shaw | 2B | 52 | 138 | 35 | 0.254 | 5 | 21 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.253 | 0.331 | 0.475 | OK |
| Tyrone Taylor | RF | 16 | 46 | 19 | 0.413 | 1 | 6 | 0.471 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.322 | 0.363 | 0.550 | OK |
| Miguel Amaya | C | 62 | 190 | 44 | 0.232 | 5 | 23 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.271 | 0.319 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 36 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0.278 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob Misiorowski | Starter | 25 | 150.3 | 1.74 | 0.758 | 13.3 | 222 | 6.0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 111 | 6.0 | 8 | 2 |
| Trevor Megill | Closer | 52 | 51.4 | 1.58 | 0.817 | 10.0 | 57 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Aaron Ashby | Setup Man | 64 | 69.0 | 3.52 | 1.493 | 13.7 | 105 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Patrick | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 47 | 89.1 | 3.33 | 1.291 | 8.4 | 83 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| David Peterson | Starter | 11 | 53.0 | 4.08 | 1.415 | 7.8 | 46 | 4.0 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 93 | 4.0 | 7 | 6 |
| Jacob Webb | Closer | 60 | 54.3 | 3.15 | 1.344 | 10.8 | 65 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Trent Thornton | Setup Man | 42 | 39.2 | 3.67 | 1.301 | 6.0 | 26 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 11 | 7.9 | 9.11 | 2.152 | 11.4 | 10 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
MIL wins 6-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | x | 4 | 8 |
Quality edge: 0.9101; margin adjustment: 0.3822; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Francisco Lindor | SS | 80 | 313 | 73 | 0.233 | 15 | 36 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.300 | 0.460 | OK |
| Juan Soto | LF | 86 | 302 | 85 | 0.281 | 22 | 54 | 0.400 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.206 | 0.325 | 0.435 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | 3B | 133 | 530 | 140 | 0.264 | 14 | 66 | 0.310 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.288 | 0.375 | OK |
| Carson Benge | RF | 129 | 494 | 135 | 0.273 | 16 | 53 | 0.333 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.261 | 0.312 | 0.391 | OK |
| Mark Vientos | DH | 73 | 241 | 51 | 0.212 | 12 | 36 | 0.250 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.198 | 0.237 | 0.399 | OK |
| Christopher Morel | 1B | 7 | 14 | 3 | 0.214 | 0 | 1 | 0.312 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.193 | 0.251 | 0.275 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 116 | 409 | 91 | 0.222 | 14 | 43 | 0.286 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.142 | 0.223 | 0.213 | OK |
| A.J. Ewing | CF | 97 | 354 | 85 | 0.240 | 7 | 28 | 0.313 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.291 | 0.322 | OK |
| Francisco Alvarez | C | 93 | 308 | 69 | 0.224 | 12 | 32 | 0.310 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.188 | 0.253 | 0.305 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 28 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 0.036 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 132 | 523 | 159 | 0.304 | 21 | 76 | 0.372 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.294 | 0.347 | 0.504 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 133 | 503 | 140 | 0.278 | 17 | 79 | 0.361 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.255 | 0.330 | 0.425 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 137 | 523 | 148 | 0.283 | 37 | 88 | 0.370 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.298 | 0.370 | 0.519 | OK |
| Liam Hicks | C | 22 | 67 | 22 | 0.328 | 3 | 13 | 0.425 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.322 | 0.378 | 0.429 | OK |
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 126 | 487 | 151 | 0.310 | 0 | 31 | 0.337 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.314 | 0.346 | 0.369 | OK |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | RF | 50 | 163 | 37 | 0.227 | 10 | 22 | 0.291 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.256 | 0.314 | 0.464 | OK |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 116 | 393 | 81 | 0.206 | 14 | 42 | 0.287 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.208 | 0.279 | 0.347 | OK |
| Richie Palacios | 2B | 100 | 292 | 66 | 0.226 | 5 | 39 | 0.321 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.183 | 0.270 | 0.271 | OK |
| Taylor Walls | SS | 107 | 337 | 74 | 0.220 | 2 | 33 | 0.305 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.317 | 0.321 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 32 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Justin Hagenman | Starter | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 3.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 63 | 3.0 | 3 | 1 |
| Kodai Senga | Closer | 24 | 52.2 | 7.76 | 1.724 | 11.2 | 65 | 3.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 61 | 3.1 | 2 | 1 |
| Daniel Duarte | Setup Man | 20 | 22.1 | 2.44 | 0.905 | 10.2 | 25 | 1.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 1.2 | 1 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Griffin Jax | Starter | 28 | 88.4 | 3.46 | 1.210 | 10.2 | 100 | 5.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 75 | 5.0 | 10 | 2 |
| Bryan Baker | Closer | 55 | 52.6 | 1.54 | 0.875 | 10.3 | 60 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Kevin Kelly | Setup Man | 60 | 55.1 | 2.29 | 0.980 | 8.5 | 52 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Wells | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 10 | 12.3 | 2.20 | 0.894 | 9.5 | 13 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
TB wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
Quality edge: -1.3336; margin adjustment: -0.5601; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 88 | 317 | 79 | 0.249 | 18 | 48 | 0.303 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.187 | 0.239 | 0.373 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 110 | 407 | 108 | 0.265 | 12 | 59 | 0.348 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.300 | 0.360 | 0.425 | OK |
| Heliot Ramos | RF | 21 | 61 | 9 | 0.148 | 1 | 4 | 0.297 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.256 | 0.331 | 0.441 | OK |
| Ben Rice | DH | 130 | 488 | 123 | 0.252 | 34 | 82 | 0.349 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.247 | 0.320 | 0.443 | OK |
| Amed Rosario | 3B | 74 | 201 | 48 | 0.239 | 10 | 29 | 0.276 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.282 | 0.321 | 0.419 | OK |
| Spencer Jones | CF | 63 | 184 | 45 | 0.245 | 9 | 28 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.336 | 0.399 | 0.634 | OK |
| José Caballero | SS | 113 | 373 | 88 | 0.236 | 13 | 47 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.261 | 0.298 | 0.396 | OK |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 126 | 440 | 103 | 0.234 | 19 | 55 | 0.310 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.321 | 0.389 | 0.539 | OK |
| Ali Sánchez | C | 32 | 66 | 16 | 0.242 | 1 | 7 | 0.271 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.107 | 0.124 | 0.179 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 35 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0.257 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | SS | 134 | 534 | 127 | 0.238 | 23 | 66 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.249 | 0.313 | 0.447 | OK |
| Mike Trout | CF | 120 | 436 | 104 | 0.239 | 20 | 50 | 0.376 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.325 | 0.361 | OK |
| Wade Meckler | RF | 70 | 222 | 67 | 0.302 | 3 | 23 | 0.372 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.295 | 0.371 | 0.380 | OK |
| Vaughn Grissom | 1B | 93 | 338 | 83 | 0.246 | 9 | 57 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.228 | 0.266 | 0.368 | OK |
| Moisés Ballesteros | DH | 25 | 96 | 16 | 0.167 | 0 | 4 | 0.216 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.212 | 0.262 | 0.301 | OK |
| Christian Moore | 2B | 16 | 57 | 11 | 0.193 | 1 | 6 | 0.266 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.273 | 0.374 | OK |
| Jose Siri | LF | 69 | 171 | 39 | 0.228 | 7 | 23 | 0.281 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.191 | 0.239 | 0.328 | OK |
| Oswald Peraza | 3B | 99 | 314 | 71 | 0.226 | 7 | 24 | 0.280 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.210 | 0.252 | 0.311 | OK |
| Travis d'Arnaud | C | 24 | 58 | 10 | 0.172 | 1 | 3 | 0.262 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.159 | 0.224 | 0.241 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cam Schlittler | Starter | 28 | 159.7 | 2.14 | 0.996 | 11.3 | 201 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 82 | 6.1 | 6 | 0 |
| David Bednar | Closer | 55 | 55.6 | 2.91 | 1.097 | 10.5 | 65 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 71 | 56.7 | 2.38 | 1.464 | 13.8 | 87 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 54 | 69.6 | 1.81 | 1.149 | 8.3 | 64 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Reid Detmers | Starter | 27 | 151.5 | 3.62 | 1.096 | 10.3 | 174 | 6.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 106 | 6.0 | 6 | 2 |
| Ben Joyce | Closer | 9 | 7.4 | 3.65 | 1.081 | 14.6 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Watson | Setup Man | 9 | 6.6 | 4.09 | 1.667 | 15.0 | 11 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| José Fermin | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 44 | 39.9 | 3.83 | 1.529 | 12.4 | 55 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
NYY wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
Quality edge: 0.9752; margin adjustment: 0.4096; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Henry Bolte | RF | 92 | 328 | 88 | 0.268 | 6 | 26 | 0.339 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.277 | 0.320 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | LF | 84 | 304 | 77 | 0.253 | 14 | 38 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.311 | 0.398 | OK |
| Lawrence Butler | DH | 124 | 382 | 88 | 0.230 | 12 | 47 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.342 | 0.380 | OK |
| Jonah Heim | 1B | 76 | 259 | 55 | 0.212 | 11 | 33 | 0.270 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.276 | 0.393 | OK |
| Jeff McNeil | 2B | 120 | 395 | 105 | 0.266 | 7 | 49 | 0.313 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.299 | 0.413 | OK |
| Michael Stefanic | 3B | 5 | 11 | 5 | 0.455 | 0 | 2 | 0.538 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.403 | 0.484 | 0.508 | OK |
| Alika Williams | SS | 58 | 158 | 42 | 0.266 | 2 | 11 | 0.293 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.263 | 0.284 | 0.412 | OK |
| Brian Serven | C | 16 | 52 | 12 | 0.231 | 5 | 14 | 0.245 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.263 | 0.279 | 0.531 | OK |
| Denzel Clarke | CF | 22 | 55 | 9 | 0.164 | 0 | 6 | 0.220 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.164 | 0.222 | 0.229 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 30 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ezequiel Duran | CF | 128 | 453 | 123 | 0.272 | 15 | 74 | 0.333 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.274 | 0.340 | 0.458 | OK |
| Corey Seager | SS | 78 | 288 | 65 | 0.226 | 13 | 35 | 0.327 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.373 | 0.434 | OK |
| Wyatt Langford | LF | 87 | 335 | 85 | 0.254 | 15 | 36 | 0.333 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.225 | 0.305 | 0.379 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 133 | 509 | 137 | 0.269 | 14 | 58 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.334 | 0.378 | 0.501 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 131 | 478 | 113 | 0.236 | 23 | 78 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.225 | 0.282 | 0.403 | OK |
| Justin Foscue | 2B | 75 | 182 | 47 | 0.258 | 10 | 26 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.265 | 0.311 | 0.497 | OK |
| Elias Díaz | DH | 52 | 157 | 36 | 0.229 | 4 | 19 | 0.259 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.277 | 0.415 | OK |
| Cody Freeman | 3B | 23 | 64 | 19 | 0.297 | 1 | 6 | 0.366 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.305 | 0.359 | 0.452 | OK |
| Danny Jansen | C | 47 | 146 | 24 | 0.164 | 5 | 16 | 0.261 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.163 | 0.233 | 0.375 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 34 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 0.265 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob Lopez | Starter | 22 | 96.2 | 4.96 | 1.507 | 9.0 | 96 | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 99 | 5.0 | 5 | 1 |
| Hogan Harris | Closer | 62 | 47.6 | 4.35 | 1.870 | 14.6 | 77 | 1.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 1.1 | 0 | 3 |
| Elvis Alvarado | Setup Man | 45 | 38.7 | 4.65 | 1.370 | 12.6 | 54 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Luis Medina | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 47 | 57.9 | 3.58 | 1.468 | 12.0 | 77 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cody Bradford | Starter | 5 | 25.4 | 3.54 | 1.575 | 4.6 | 13 | 5.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 88 | 5.0 | 8 | 3 |
| Jacob Latz | Closer | 48 | 57.4 | 1.25 | 0.714 | 10.7 | 68 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jakob Junis | Setup Man | 43 | 42.6 | 2.96 | 1.221 | 7.4 | 35 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 15 | 10.1 | 4.46 | 1.881 | 11.6 | 13 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
TEX wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| ARI | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
Quality edge: -0.4815; margin adjustment: -0.2022; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Schwarber | 1B | 131 | 495 | 119 | 0.240 | 39 | 82 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.352 | 0.498 | OK |
| Trea Turner | SS | 131 | 548 | 133 | 0.243 | 17 | 52 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.280 | 0.325 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | DH | 137 | 485 | 133 | 0.274 | 27 | 80 | 0.393 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.311 | 0.424 | 0.541 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 25 | 103 | 30 | 0.291 | 2 | 11 | 0.308 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.306 | 0.336 | 0.401 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 3B | 132 | 459 | 118 | 0.257 | 10 | 60 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.318 | 0.398 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | LF | 131 | 470 | 127 | 0.270 | 17 | 57 | 0.317 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.159 | 0.217 | 0.260 | OK |
| Justin Crawford | CF | 123 | 365 | 96 | 0.263 | 2 | 34 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.187 | 0.250 | 0.258 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 101 | 348 | 78 | 0.224 | 10 | 45 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.300 | 0.391 | OK |
| Bryan De La Cruz | RF | 18 | 45 | 15 | 0.333 | 2 | 11 | 0.373 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.246 | 0.280 | 0.373 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 21 | 63 | 14 | 0.222 | 3 | 11 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.345 | 0.444 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 136 | 508 | 123 | 0.242 | 19 | 61 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.287 | 0.409 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | DH | 109 | 393 | 118 | 0.300 | 11 | 67 | 0.379 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.284 | 0.363 | 0.448 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 135 | 487 | 123 | 0.253 | 9 | 47 | 0.360 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.257 | 0.357 | 0.338 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 130 | 454 | 107 | 0.236 | 21 | 65 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.254 | 0.333 | OK |
| Tim Tawa | 1B | 76 | 243 | 59 | 0.243 | 9 | 35 | 0.297 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.295 | 0.410 | OK |
| James McCann | C | 35 | 115 | 34 | 0.296 | 4 | 21 | 0.325 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.271 | 0.299 | 0.392 | OK |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 2B | 115 | 407 | 103 | 0.253 | 9 | 66 | 0.292 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.271 | 0.356 | OK |
| Jordan Lawlar | CF | 19 | 59 | 16 | 0.271 | 2 | 7 | 0.348 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.273 | 0.306 | 0.411 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 30 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Andrew Painter | Starter | 20 | 96.0 | 6.09 | 1.479 | 8.0 | 85 | 5.0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 90 | 5.0 | 7 | 4 |
| Jhoan Duran | Closer | 51 | 49.4 | 1.28 | 1.012 | 12.6 | 69 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Bowlan | Setup Man | 53 | 46.8 | 3.08 | 1.068 | 12.3 | 64 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 58 | 46.9 | 4.41 | 1.471 | 10.9 | 57 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Taylor Clarke | Starter | 62 | 55.1 | 2.94 | 0.998 | 6.0 | 37 | 6.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 99 | 6.0 | 8 | 2 |
| Brandyn Garcia | Closer | 36 | 26.8 | 2.01 | 0.784 | 12.1 | 36 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Juan Morillo | Setup Man | 48 | 40.4 | 2.90 | 1.114 | 12.3 | 55 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 48 | 40.8 | 3.09 | 1.225 | 7.1 | 32 | 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
PHI wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
Quality edge: -0.6789; margin adjustment: -0.2851; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2B | 135 | 539 | 152 | 0.282 | 19 | 68 | 0.348 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.275 | 0.328 | 0.467 | OK |
| Samad Taylor | LF | 28 | 93 | 32 | 0.344 | 1 | 11 | 0.425 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.325 | 0.386 | 0.425 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 135 | 527 | 128 | 0.243 | 22 | 70 | 0.295 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.307 | 0.455 | OK |
| Ty France | 1B | 107 | 364 | 105 | 0.288 | 19 | 60 | 0.354 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.260 | 0.321 | 0.433 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 132 | 449 | 97 | 0.216 | 11 | 51 | 0.317 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.306 | 0.290 | OK |
| Player-806956 | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.296 | 0.389 | |
| Austin Hays | RF | 11 | 30 | 6 | 0.200 | 1 | 3 | 0.200 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.231 | 0.310 | OK |
| Luis Campusano | DH | 53 | 151 | 43 | 0.285 | 5 | 23 | 0.386 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.358 | 0.411 | OK |
| Jake Cronenworth | 3B | 86 | 299 | 65 | 0.217 | 4 | 26 | 0.301 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.203 | 0.272 | 0.283 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 32 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 0.188 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Héctor Rodríguez | RF | 21 | 70 | 17 | 0.243 | 4 | 10 | 0.312 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.249 | 0.307 | 0.460 | OK |
| Elly De La Cruz | DH | 117 | 460 | 126 | 0.274 | 21 | 60 | 0.357 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.293 | 0.380 | 0.486 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 1B | 136 | 523 | 140 | 0.268 | 30 | 102 | 0.337 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.304 | 0.362 | 0.573 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 107 | 383 | 85 | 0.222 | 21 | 53 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.210 | 0.312 | 0.385 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | 106 | 344 | 87 | 0.253 | 14 | 49 | 0.331 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.282 | 0.348 | 0.508 | OK |
| Dane Myers | CF | 86 | 230 | 57 | 0.248 | 5 | 21 | 0.337 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.191 | 0.279 | 0.297 | OK |
| Juan Brito | 2B | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.168 | 0.224 | 0.251 | |
| Matt McLain | SS | 109 | 373 | 71 | 0.190 | 13 | 35 | 0.285 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.176 | 0.256 | 0.306 | OK |
| Edwin Arroyo | 3B | 44 | 142 | 33 | 0.232 | 0 | 5 | 0.276 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.255 | 0.272 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Casey Mize | Starter | 5 | 22.3 | 6.46 | 1.570 | 4.4 | 11 | 5.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 86 | 5.0 | 5 | 3 |
| Mason Miller | Closer | 55 | 54.3 | 1.33 | 0.884 | 17.2 | 104 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Adrian Morejon | Setup Man | 64 | 65.8 | 3.15 | 1.231 | 12.3 | 90 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 57 | 53.7 | 2.18 | 1.192 | 11.2 | 67 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Yuki Matsui | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 43 | 47.1 | 2.29 | 1.316 | 11.5 | 60 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Brandon Williamson | Starter | 6 | 26.6 | 6.43 | 1.729 | 6.4 | 19 | 4.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 95 | 4.1 | 3 | 3 |
| Emilio Pagán | Closer | 35 | 33.4 | 4.31 | 1.078 | 9.4 | 35 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tejay Antone | Setup Man | 45 | 38.6 | 3.73 | 1.244 | 10.0 | 43 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brock Burke | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 69 | 57.0 | 3.00 | 1.544 | 10.9 | 69 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Pierce Johnson | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 46 | 32.2 | 5.59 | 1.646 | 9.5 | 34 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
SD wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
Quality edge: 0.8523; margin adjustment: 0.358; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 131 | 487 | 133 | 0.273 | 22 | 65 | 0.369 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.239 | 0.313 | 0.511 | OK |
| Dominic Canzone | DH | 121 | 385 | 98 | 0.255 | 21 | 62 | 0.323 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.283 | 0.494 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 127 | 506 | 123 | 0.243 | 20 | 57 | 0.303 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.193 | 0.239 | 0.314 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 129 | 503 | 135 | 0.268 | 10 | 47 | 0.328 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.239 | 0.286 | 0.309 | OK |
| Taylor Ward | RF | 19 | 66 | 8 | 0.121 | 0 | 4 | 0.227 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.200 | 0.329 | 0.278 | OK |
| Cole Young | 2B | 138 | 504 | 124 | 0.246 | 16 | 57 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.206 | 0.263 | 0.328 | OK |
| Weston Wilson | 3B | 31 | 82 | 15 | 0.183 | 3 | 8 | 0.264 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.183 | 0.269 | 0.294 | OK |
| J.P. Crawford | SS | 93 | 328 | 70 | 0.213 | 10 | 31 | 0.331 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.236 | 0.335 | 0.332 | OK |
| Jhonny Pereda | C | 25 | 76 | 21 | 0.276 | 2 | 4 | 0.329 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 0.314 | 0.338 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Roman Anthony | DH | 33 | 122 | 31 | 0.254 | 1 | 5 | 0.368 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.270 | 0.367 | 0.400 | OK |
| Mickey Gasper | 1B | 46 | 140 | 39 | 0.279 | 7 | 21 | 0.370 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.293 | 0.385 | 0.588 | OK |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | CF | 130 | 523 | 147 | 0.281 | 15 | 68 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.250 | 0.273 | 0.369 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 134 | 512 | 132 | 0.258 | 23 | 70 | 0.336 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.264 | 0.327 | 0.462 | OK |
| Nick Sogard | 2B | 43 | 158 | 43 | 0.272 | 3 | 13 | 0.370 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.290 | 0.374 | 0.461 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 127 | 435 | 106 | 0.244 | 12 | 59 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.216 | 0.286 | 0.306 | OK |
| Jarren Duran | LF | 128 | 486 | 100 | 0.206 | 19 | 62 | 0.264 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.190 | 0.241 | 0.367 | OK |
| Trevor Story | SS | 44 | 177 | 40 | 0.226 | 3 | 22 | 0.261 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.267 | 0.295 | 0.406 | OK |
| Connor Wong | C | 63 | 187 | 46 | 0.246 | 4 | 23 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.229 | 0.288 | 0.365 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 35 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bryce Miller | Starter | 17 | 91.2 | 4.24 | 1.118 | 9.1 | 92 | 5.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 96 | 5.1 | 8 | 2 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Closer | 52 | 47.3 | 4.19 | 1.226 | 15.4 | 81 | 0.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0.1 | 1 | 2 |
| José A. Ferrer | Setup Man | 62 | 50.2 | 4.30 | 1.574 | 8.1 | 45 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 65 | 51.2 | 3.87 | 1.621 | 10.7 | 61 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Patrick Sandoval | Starter | 9 | 43.6 | 4.33 | 1.766 | 9.9 | 48 | 5.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 101 | 5.0 | 2 | 4 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 46 | 45.2 | 1.19 | 1.062 | 11.9 | 60 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Erik Miller | Setup Man | 11 | 11.1 | 0.81 | 0.991 | 16.2 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Weissert | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 55 | 44.5 | 4.25 | 1.416 | 10.7 | 53 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jovani Morán | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 42 | 53.2 | 3.72 | 1.203 | 10.7 | 63 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
BOS wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 |
Quality edge: 0.4514; margin adjustment: 0.1896; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Drew Gilbert | CF | 104 | 292 | 70 | 0.240 | 8 | 36 | 0.310 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.283 | 0.422 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | 1B | 138 | 517 | 131 | 0.253 | 30 | 81 | 0.334 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.283 | 0.366 | 0.593 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | DH | 93 | 332 | 87 | 0.262 | 15 | 43 | 0.356 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.304 | 0.385 | 0.481 | OK |
| Turner Hill | LF | 13 | 38 | 13 | 0.342 | 0 | 9 | 0.413 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.327 | 0.400 | 0.460 | OK |
| Jung Hoo Lee | RF | 124 | 473 | 136 | 0.288 | 8 | 48 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.233 | 0.282 | 0.327 | OK |
| Drew Cavanaugh | C | 40 | 107 | 26 | 0.243 | 0 | 9 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.268 | 0.338 | 0.341 | OK |
| Nate Furman | 2B | 11 | 20 | 4 | 0.200 | 0 | 2 | 0.273 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.137 | 0.210 | 0.182 | OK |
| Shay Whitcomb | 3B | 9 | 30 | 3 | 0.100 | 1 | 3 | 0.100 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.147 | 0.156 | 0.306 | OK |
| Christian Koss | SS | 43 | 128 | 26 | 0.203 | 1 | 5 | 0.239 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.204 | 0.233 | 0.284 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 37 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Spencer Horwitz | 1B | 96 | 330 | 82 | 0.248 | 10 | 40 | 0.349 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.218 | 0.291 | 0.312 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 126 | 496 | 126 | 0.254 | 29 | 83 | 0.322 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.339 | 0.397 | 0.644 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | DH | 136 | 504 | 133 | 0.264 | 15 | 66 | 0.372 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.267 | 0.360 | 0.404 | OK |
| Nick Gonzales | 3B | 125 | 476 | 146 | 0.307 | 4 | 56 | 0.367 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.306 | 0.355 | 0.374 | OK |
| Oneil Cruz | CF | 75 | 295 | 80 | 0.271 | 17 | 56 | 0.356 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.307 | 0.367 | 0.480 | OK |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | RF | 63 | 210 | 50 | 0.238 | 13 | 36 | 0.351 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.338 | 0.488 | OK |
| Rafael Flores Jr. | C | 26 | 82 | 18 | 0.220 | 7 | 17 | 0.297 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.114 | 0.195 | 0.300 | OK |
| Jake Mangum | LF | 104 | 366 | 106 | 0.290 | 4 | 28 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.275 | 0.311 | 0.354 | OK |
| Jared Triolo | SS | 93 | 286 | 71 | 0.248 | 3 | 26 | 0.324 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.274 | 0.337 | 0.377 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 37 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 0.297 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Landen Roupp | Starter | 26 | 135.0 | 4.40 | 1.356 | 8.9 | 133 | 5.1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 105 | 5.1 | 6 | 1 |
| Dylan Smith | Closer | 33 | 27.4 | 3.61 | 1.496 | 12.8 | 39 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jason Foley | Setup Man | 15 | 13.0 | 4.85 | 1.769 | 8.3 | 12 | 0.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Trent Harris | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 10 | 11.3 | 3.98 | 1.504 | 13.5 | 17 | 2.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 35 | 1.1 | 1 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bubba Chandler | Starter | 26 | 127.5 | 4.38 | 1.396 | 8.3 | 117 | 5.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 99 | 5.0 | 4 | 4 |
| Mason Montgomery | Closer | 57 | 49.2 | 3.11 | 1.199 | 16.3 | 89 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Luke Weaver | Setup Man | 9 | 7.4 | 7.30 | 1.892 | 12.2 | 10 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 59 | 55.0 | 2.95 | 1.109 | 11.3 | 69 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Yohan Ramírez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 56 | 66.8 | 3.64 | 1.452 | 11.7 | 87 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
PIT wins 6-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
Quality edge: 0.9876; margin adjustment: 0.4148; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Bryan Torres | LF | 49 | 117 | 31 | 0.265 | 3 | 16 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.284 | 0.340 | 0.389 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | C | 135 | 509 | 123 | 0.242 | 13 | 54 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.318 | 0.341 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 134 | 514 | 146 | 0.284 | 21 | 97 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.227 | 0.284 | 0.374 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 132 | 514 | 148 | 0.288 | 26 | 94 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.285 | 0.325 | 0.491 | OK |
| Leonardo Bernal | DH | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0.200 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.208 | 0.222 | OK |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 68 | 217 | 41 | 0.189 | 8 | 27 | 0.269 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.101 | 0.189 | 0.203 | OK |
| José Fermín | 2B | 95 | 273 | 67 | 0.245 | 6 | 35 | 0.308 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.287 | 0.339 | OK |
| Nathan Church | CF | 106 | 352 | 85 | 0.241 | 10 | 46 | 0.284 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.234 | 0.276 | 0.345 | OK |
| Thomas Saggese | SS | 29 | 84 | 19 | 0.226 | 3 | 7 | 0.283 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.250 | 0.311 | 0.446 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 33 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shohei Ohtani | DH | 127 | 490 | 137 | 0.280 | 30 | 78 | 0.382 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.262 | 0.362 | 0.478 | OK |
| Tommy Edman | CF | 57 | 205 | 54 | 0.263 | 5 | 26 | 0.338 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.268 | 0.312 | 0.394 | OK |
| Mookie Betts | SS | 99 | 389 | 95 | 0.244 | 16 | 51 | 0.301 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.288 | 0.347 | 0.426 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 133 | 501 | 152 | 0.303 | 15 | 61 | 0.379 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.354 | 0.390 | OK |
| Miguel Rojas | 2B | 78 | 183 | 51 | 0.279 | 3 | 20 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.171 | 0.215 | 0.285 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 126 | 454 | 103 | 0.227 | 11 | 58 | 0.319 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.201 | 0.303 | 0.312 | OK |
| Teoscar Hernández | LF | 100 | 355 | 88 | 0.248 | 12 | 45 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.241 | 0.296 | 0.385 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 125 | 410 | 101 | 0.246 | 26 | 68 | 0.342 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.212 | 0.315 | 0.411 | OK |
| Hunter Feduccia | C | 18 | 43 | 11 | 0.256 | 1 | 4 | 0.347 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.169 | 0.256 | 0.261 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0.235 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Brycen Mautz | Starter | 2 | 6.0 | 9.00 | 2.000 | 15.0 | 10 | 3.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 67 | 3.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Riley O'Brien | Closer | 56 | 52.1 | 4.15 | 1.286 | 9.3 | 54 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Setup Man | 61 | 51.3 | 4.74 | 1.462 | 10.2 | 58 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 59 | 45.4 | 4.96 | 1.586 | 11.1 | 56 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin Bruihl | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 60 | 55.7 | 4.20 | 1.634 | 7.3 | 45 | 2.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 1.2 | 0 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Starter | 24 | 155.9 | 2.60 | 0.904 | 8.8 | 153 | 6.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 108 | 6.2 | 7 | 3 |
| Tanner Scott | Closer | 59 | 50.1 | 2.69 | 1.038 | 12.0 | 67 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Edgardo Henriquez | Setup Man | 55 | 48.1 | 3.18 | 1.123 | 11.8 | 63 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brock Stewart | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 19 | 16.9 | 2.13 | 1.006 | 9.6 | 18 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
LAD wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| CLE | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 3 | 7 |
Quality edge: 0.5563; margin adjustment: 0.2336; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Brett Bateman | CF | 20 | 82 | 26 | 0.317 | 0 | 7 | 0.367 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.262 | 0.317 | 0.360 | OK |
| George Springer | DH | 104 | 394 | 99 | 0.251 | 14 | 44 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.310 | 0.369 | 0.517 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 123 | 466 | 120 | 0.258 | 7 | 48 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.287 | 0.311 | OK |
| Alejandro Kirk | C | 60 | 213 | 59 | 0.277 | 8 | 32 | 0.346 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.308 | 0.373 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 133 | 489 | 112 | 0.229 | 28 | 78 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.294 | 0.466 | OK |
| Nathan Lukes | RF | 100 | 333 | 87 | 0.261 | 10 | 32 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.230 | 0.272 | 0.389 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 135 | 512 | 141 | 0.275 | 9 | 43 | 0.301 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.193 | 0.223 | 0.292 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 122 | 404 | 97 | 0.240 | 8 | 51 | 0.287 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.215 | 0.237 | 0.310 | OK |
| Myles Straw | LF | 104 | 247 | 56 | 0.227 | 3 | 21 | 0.280 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.304 | 0.352 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Steven Kwan | CF | 123 | 442 | 121 | 0.274 | 2 | 27 | 0.372 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.284 | 0.371 | 0.349 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | DH | 112 | 421 | 123 | 0.292 | 13 | 59 | 0.363 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.301 | 0.367 | 0.464 | OK |
| José Ramírez | 3B | 101 | 378 | 92 | 0.243 | 11 | 48 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.259 | 0.342 | 0.418 | OK |
| Jo Adell | RF | 24 | 89 | 23 | 0.258 | 4 | 21 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.313 | 0.412 | OK |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 1B | 22 | 79 | 18 | 0.228 | 3 | 15 | 0.261 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.241 | 0.308 | 0.430 | OK |
| Angel Martínez | LF | 88 | 321 | 80 | 0.249 | 14 | 50 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.310 | 0.515 | OK |
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 100 | 369 | 87 | 0.236 | 9 | 41 | 0.326 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.304 | 0.333 | OK |
| Patrick Bailey | C | 57 | 170 | 40 | 0.235 | 7 | 27 | 0.304 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.342 | 0.496 | OK |
| Angel Genao | SS | 21 | 76 | 20 | 0.263 | 2 | 5 | 0.317 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 0.298 | 0.378 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dylan Cease | Starter | 25 | 147.3 | 2.38 | 1.073 | 13.3 | 217 | 6.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 98 | 6.0 | 3 | 2 |
| Louis Varland | Closer | 62 | 64.0 | 1.27 | 1.047 | 11.8 | 84 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Rogers | Setup Man | 64 | 57.0 | 2.05 | 1.298 | 5.5 | 35 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Joey Cantillo | Starter | 28 | 133.3 | 3.78 | 1.485 | 9.8 | 145 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 83 | 5.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Cade Smith | Closer | 58 | 57.5 | 2.50 | 1.148 | 13.5 | 86 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Setup Man | 54 | 39.4 | 3.43 | 1.447 | 10.5 | 46 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Colin Holderman | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 51 | 44.4 | 2.43 | 1.081 | 10.1 | 50 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
CLE wins 3-2