| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ SF | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | SF | SF | SF wins 4-3 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| BAL @ STL | 6 - 3 | 6 - 3 | BAL | BAL | BAL wins 6-3 | 62% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| COL @ WAS | 4 - 6 | 4 - 6 | WAS | WAS | WAS wins 6-4 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| HOU @ NYY | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 5-4 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| KC @ TOR | 6 - 4 | 6 - 4 | KC | KC | KC wins 6-4 | 64% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| LAD @ ATL | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 | LAD | LAD | LAD wins 4-3 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| MIL @ NYM | 4 - 2 | 4 - 2 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 4-2 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| SF | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.5724; margin adjustment: -0.2404; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Lars Nootbaar | DH | 20 | 61 | 14 | 0.230 | 3 | 11 | 0.338 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.219 | 0.320 | 0.352 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 135 | 504 | 123 | 0.244 | 19 | 61 | 0.341 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.232 | 0.314 | 0.420 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | C | 108 | 389 | 118 | 0.303 | 11 | 67 | 0.382 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.280 | 0.361 | 0.447 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 134 | 483 | 123 | 0.255 | 9 | 47 | 0.362 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.285 | 0.382 | 0.390 | OK |
| Max Kepler | LF | 38 | 126 | 27 | 0.214 | 2 | 15 | 0.273 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.286 | 0.330 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 129 | 450 | 107 | 0.238 | 21 | 65 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.234 | 0.296 | 0.426 | OK |
| Tim Tawa | 1B | 75 | 239 | 58 | 0.243 | 9 | 35 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.236 | 0.299 | 0.397 | OK |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 2B | 115 | 407 | 103 | 0.253 | 9 | 66 | 0.292 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.246 | 0.285 | 0.393 | OK |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | CF | 70 | 225 | 61 | 0.271 | 3 | 22 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.318 | 0.439 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Drew Gilbert | RF | 104 | 292 | 70 | 0.240 | 8 | 36 | 0.310 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.240 | 0.290 | 0.391 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | 1B | 137 | 513 | 130 | 0.253 | 29 | 78 | 0.333 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 0.338 | 0.569 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | DH | 92 | 328 | 86 | 0.262 | 15 | 43 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.350 | 0.438 | OK |
| Jonah Cox | CF | 28 | 63 | 18 | 0.286 | 4 | 9 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.208 | 0.231 | 0.498 | OK |
| Turner Hill | LF | 12 | 33 | 9 | 0.273 | 0 | 8 | 0.350 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.299 | 0.376 | 0.478 | OK |
| Shay Whitcomb | 3B | 8 | 27 | 2 | 0.074 | 1 | 3 | 0.074 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.170 | 0.180 | 0.426 | OK |
| Drew Cavanaugh | C | 39 | 102 | 23 | 0.225 | 0 | 7 | 0.319 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.159 | 0.254 | 0.202 | OK |
| Christian Koss | SS | 42 | 123 | 24 | 0.195 | 1 | 4 | 0.233 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.252 | 0.267 | OK |
| Nate Furman | 2B | 10 | 19 | 3 | 0.158 | 0 | 0 | 0.238 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.090 | 0.152 | 0.138 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jose Cabrera | Starter | 4 | 17.2 | 5.76 | 1.570 | 6.3 | 12 | 4.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 90 | 4.1 | 4 | 3 |
| Juan Morillo | Closer | 48 | 40.4 | 2.90 | 1.114 | 12.3 | 55 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandyn Garcia | Setup Man | 36 | 26.8 | 2.01 | 0.784 | 12.1 | 36 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 48 | 40.8 | 3.09 | 1.225 | 7.1 | 32 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Ginkel | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 50 | 42.9 | 3.36 | 1.235 | 9.0 | 43 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Landen Roupp | Starter | 26 | 135.0 | 4.40 | 1.356 | 8.9 | 133 | 5.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 84 | 5.0 | 4 | 1 |
| Dylan Smith | Closer | 33 | 27.4 | 3.61 | 1.496 | 12.8 | 39 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Hentges | Setup Man | 39 | 26.0 | 4.15 | 2.000 | 12.1 | 35 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jason Foley | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 15 | 13.0 | 4.85 | 1.769 | 8.3 | 12 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Trent Harris | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 9 | 10.3 | 4.37 | 1.456 | 13.1 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
SF wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Quality edge: -0.0855; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jackson Holliday | 2B | 81 | 260 | 58 | 0.223 | 6 | 27 | 0.299 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.297 | 0.332 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | DH | 135 | 507 | 137 | 0.270 | 32 | 91 | 0.361 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.313 | 0.380 | 0.576 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 133 | 534 | 119 | 0.223 | 21 | 56 | 0.306 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.210 | 0.285 | 0.342 | OK |
| Samuel Basallo | 1B | 93 | 315 | 73 | 0.232 | 17 | 49 | 0.293 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.211 | 0.262 | 0.413 | OK |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 3B | 35 | 118 | 29 | 0.246 | 6 | 26 | 0.291 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.216 | 0.248 | 0.433 | OK |
| Dylan Beavers | LF | 78 | 238 | 60 | 0.252 | 6 | 31 | 0.327 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.323 | 0.458 | OK |
| Leody Taveras | RF | 115 | 377 | 84 | 0.223 | 8 | 52 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.229 | 0.287 | 0.341 | OK |
| Colton Cowser | CF | 108 | 282 | 63 | 0.223 | 12 | 34 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 0.336 | 0.469 | OK |
| Carlos Narváez | C | 19 | 51 | 4 | 0.078 | 0 | 0 | 0.175 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.123 | 0.178 | 0.182 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 38 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| JJ Wetherholt | SS | 126 | 495 | 120 | 0.242 | 17 | 47 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.268 | 0.339 | 0.404 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | DH | 134 | 505 | 121 | 0.240 | 13 | 53 | 0.351 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.211 | 0.296 | 0.313 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 133 | 509 | 146 | 0.287 | 21 | 97 | 0.351 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.298 | 0.349 | 0.461 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 131 | 509 | 145 | 0.285 | 25 | 92 | 0.343 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.299 | 0.481 | OK |
| Nathan Church | CF | 105 | 348 | 84 | 0.241 | 10 | 45 | 0.285 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.276 | 0.311 | 0.428 | OK |
| José Fermín | 2B | 94 | 269 | 66 | 0.245 | 6 | 34 | 0.310 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.254 | 0.316 | 0.398 | OK |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 67 | 215 | 41 | 0.191 | 8 | 27 | 0.272 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.129 | 0.221 | 0.227 | OK |
| Bryan Torres | LF | 49 | 117 | 31 | 0.265 | 3 | 16 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.289 | 0.348 | OK |
| Jimmy Crooks | C | 49 | 132 | 24 | 0.182 | 5 | 14 | 0.248 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.117 | 0.177 | 0.195 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 30 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0.133 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Trevor Rogers | Starter | 25 | 134.4 | 4.49 | 1.280 | 8.1 | 121 | 5.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 101 | 5.2 | 4 | 2 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Closer | 49 | 39.6 | 3.41 | 1.490 | 8.2 | 36 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yennier Cano | Setup Man | 57 | 35.6 | 2.78 | 1.096 | 10.1 | 40 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rico Garcia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 64 | 51.2 | 2.99 | 1.016 | 10.5 | 60 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Walker | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 19 | 14.9 | 3.02 | 1.611 | 10.9 | 18 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael McGreevy | Starter | 26 | 139.3 | 3.94 | 1.278 | 6.3 | 98 | 5.0 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 107 | 5.0 | 6 | 4 |
| Riley O'Brien | Closer | 56 | 52.1 | 4.15 | 1.286 | 9.3 | 54 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| George Soriano | Setup Man | 61 | 51.3 | 4.74 | 1.462 | 10.2 | 58 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 59 | 45.4 | 4.96 | 1.586 | 11.1 | 56 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Justin Bruihl | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 59 | 55.6 | 4.05 | 1.619 | 7.1 | 44 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
BAL wins 6-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| WAS | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | x | 6 | 6 |
Quality edge: 0.9814; margin adjustment: 0.4122; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jake McCarthy | LF | 117 | 450 | 130 | 0.289 | 14 | 69 | 0.328 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.254 | 0.291 | 0.372 | OK |
| Cole Carrigg | CF | 66 | 235 | 61 | 0.260 | 6 | 36 | 0.341 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.247 | 0.324 | 0.407 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | C | 118 | 440 | 112 | 0.255 | 36 | 73 | 0.322 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.283 | 0.532 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 131 | 466 | 136 | 0.292 | 13 | 60 | 0.384 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.200 | 0.215 | 0.313 | 0.329 | OK |
| Willi Castro | 3B | 119 | 427 | 111 | 0.260 | 15 | 56 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.265 | 0.320 | 0.442 | OK |
| Mickey Moniak | RF | 96 | 341 | 86 | 0.252 | 21 | 60 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.276 | 0.487 | OK |
| Connor Norby | 2B | 19 | 61 | 18 | 0.295 | 2 | 10 | 0.386 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.264 | 0.342 | 0.445 | OK |
| Troy Johnston | DH | 110 | 350 | 101 | 0.289 | 4 | 46 | 0.354 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.283 | 0.344 | 0.405 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 122 | 405 | 85 | 0.210 | 10 | 41 | 0.258 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.149 | 0.208 | 0.298 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| CJ Abrams | DH | 131 | 498 | 133 | 0.267 | 29 | 92 | 0.343 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.269 | 0.334 | 0.507 | OK |
| Abimelec Ortiz | 1B | 27 | 87 | 19 | 0.218 | 5 | 10 | 0.261 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.214 | 0.263 | 0.389 | OK |
| Dylan Crews | RF | 85 | 322 | 71 | 0.220 | 10 | 34 | 0.289 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.278 | 0.346 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | LF | 138 | 526 | 135 | 0.257 | 20 | 80 | 0.309 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.293 | 0.335 | 0.541 | OK |
| Andrés Chaparro | 3B | 59 | 146 | 36 | 0.247 | 9 | 33 | 0.341 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.251 | 0.327 | 0.523 | OK |
| José Tena | 2B | 101 | 242 | 55 | 0.227 | 7 | 22 | 0.305 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.307 | 0.389 | OK |
| Harry Ford | C | 22 | 69 | 13 | 0.188 | 3 | 8 | 0.291 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.180 | 0.274 | 0.332 | OK |
| Nasim Nuñez | SS | 122 | 399 | 86 | 0.216 | 1 | 35 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.281 | 0.236 | OK |
| Jacob Young | CF | 112 | 374 | 92 | 0.246 | 10 | 41 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.285 | 0.361 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 29 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0.207 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Gabriel Hughes | Starter | 10 | 47.2 | 6.67 | 1.462 | 7.2 | 38 | 4.1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 88 | 4.1 | 2 | 4 |
| Jordan Romano | Closer | 18 | 16.3 | 2.21 | 1.227 | 8.8 | 16 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Brennan Bernardino | Setup Man | 64 | 46.2 | 3.12 | 1.385 | 8.0 | 41 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jimmy Herget | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 42 | 37.2 | 6.77 | 1.747 | 9.2 | 38 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jake Irvin | Starter | 17 | 80.5 | 5.70 | 1.416 | 9.2 | 82 | 4.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 98 | 4.2 | 6 | 3 |
| Clayton Beeter | Closer | 45 | 39.9 | 3.38 | 1.404 | 10.2 | 45 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Orlando Ribalta | Setup Man | 44 | 37.8 | 4.29 | 1.376 | 9.5 | 40 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Will Dion | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 7 | 16.5 | 2.18 | 0.909 | 9.3 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jake Bird | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 8 | 8.1 | 3.33 | 0.988 | 11.1 | 10 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
WAS wins 6-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
Quality edge: 0.9201; margin adjustment: 0.3864; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeremy Peña | SS | 87 | 349 | 99 | 0.284 | 17 | 46 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.281 | 0.429 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 135 | 485 | 155 | 0.320 | 37 | 94 | 0.435 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.350 | 0.452 | 0.599 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 130 | 472 | 119 | 0.252 | 17 | 73 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.351 | 0.441 | OK |
| Jose Altuve | 2B | 110 | 428 | 106 | 0.248 | 14 | 41 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.291 | 0.368 | OK |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | 24 | 93 | 16 | 0.172 | 3 | 10 | 0.238 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.238 | 0.282 | 0.367 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 131 | 486 | 112 | 0.230 | 24 | 76 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.207 | 0.263 | 0.351 | OK |
| Taylor Trammell | LF | 73 | 203 | 41 | 0.202 | 7 | 20 | 0.280 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.189 | 0.260 | 0.332 | OK |
| Cam Smith | RF | 125 | 434 | 93 | 0.214 | 17 | 49 | 0.279 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.113 | 0.177 | 0.252 | OK |
| Christian Vázquez | C | 77 | 225 | 48 | 0.213 | 7 | 25 | 0.267 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.263 | 0.382 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trent Grisham | CF | 113 | 403 | 84 | 0.208 | 17 | 56 | 0.304 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.204 | 0.311 | 0.410 | OK |
| Ben Rice | DH | 129 | 483 | 122 | 0.253 | 34 | 82 | 0.350 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.235 | 0.325 | 0.440 | OK |
| Luis García Jr. | 1B | 24 | 89 | 26 | 0.292 | 5 | 12 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.333 | 0.373 | 0.655 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 109 | 402 | 105 | 0.261 | 12 | 59 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.274 | 0.357 | 0.462 | OK |
| George Lombard Jr. | SS | 23 | 79 | 20 | 0.253 | 2 | 6 | 0.310 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.257 | 0.314 | 0.346 | OK |
| Spencer Jones | RF | 62 | 181 | 43 | 0.238 | 8 | 25 | 0.305 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.258 | 0.326 | 0.479 | OK |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 125 | 435 | 100 | 0.230 | 18 | 54 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.253 | 0.321 | 0.466 | OK |
| Austin Wells | C | 101 | 285 | 52 | 0.182 | 10 | 26 | 0.272 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.191 | 0.277 | 0.279 | OK |
| José Caballero | 3B | 112 | 368 | 88 | 0.239 | 13 | 47 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.212 | 0.261 | 0.332 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 33 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 0.242 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Hayden Wesneski | Starter | 6 | 32.2 | 3.91 | 1.211 | 7.8 | 28 | 5.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 97 | 5.1 | 5 | 2 |
| Josh Hader | Closer | 36 | 35.4 | 0.51 | 0.621 | 12.2 | 48 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Steven Okert | Setup Man | 68 | 58.8 | 2.45 | 1.003 | 10.4 | 68 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Abreu | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 54 | 47.3 | 4.38 | 1.543 | 12.9 | 68 | 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 0.2 | 0 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Gerrit Cole | Starter | 17 | 96.8 | 3.25 | 1.095 | 9.8 | 105 | 6.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 102 | 6.0 | 8 | 2 |
| David Bednar | Closer | 55 | 55.6 | 2.91 | 1.097 | 10.5 | 65 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 70 | 55.6 | 2.43 | 1.493 | 13.9 | 86 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fernando Cruz | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 61 | 40.2 | 4.25 | 1.816 | 15.0 | 67 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
NYY wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
Quality edge: -0.0492; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carter Jensen | C | 126 | 446 | 99 | 0.222 | 19 | 61 | 0.309 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.199 | 0.276 | 0.365 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 118 | 464 | 132 | 0.284 | 16 | 48 | 0.358 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.356 | 0.462 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | RF | 125 | 454 | 128 | 0.282 | 23 | 66 | 0.330 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.288 | 0.323 | 0.452 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | DH | 127 | 490 | 110 | 0.224 | 17 | 62 | 0.268 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.263 | 0.291 | 0.405 | OK |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | 90 | 332 | 82 | 0.247 | 9 | 41 | 0.337 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.272 | 0.360 | 0.444 | OK |
| Nick Loftin | 3B | 96 | 304 | 72 | 0.237 | 6 | 40 | 0.322 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.333 | 0.421 | OK |
| John Rave | LF | 29 | 83 | 18 | 0.217 | 3 | 8 | 0.278 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.236 | 0.298 | 0.453 | OK |
| Tyler Tolbert | 2B | 46 | 114 | 35 | 0.307 | 3 | 8 | 0.375 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.270 | 0.342 | 0.388 | OK |
| Kyle Isbel | CF | 75 | 231 | 54 | 0.234 | 6 | 24 | 0.284 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.272 | 0.303 | 0.425 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 43 | 38 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Brett Bateman | CF | 19 | 78 | 26 | 0.333 | 0 | 7 | 0.384 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.309 | 0.342 | 0.413 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 122 | 462 | 119 | 0.258 | 7 | 48 | 0.327 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.310 | 0.354 | OK |
| Alejandro Kirk | C | 59 | 209 | 58 | 0.278 | 8 | 32 | 0.347 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.188 | 0.286 | 0.306 | OK |
| George Springer | DH | 103 | 390 | 99 | 0.254 | 14 | 44 | 0.330 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.184 | 0.252 | 0.291 | OK |
| Jesús Sánchez | LF | 92 | 258 | 68 | 0.264 | 8 | 34 | 0.323 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.249 | 0.310 | 0.405 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 132 | 486 | 111 | 0.228 | 28 | 78 | 0.304 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.283 | 0.423 | OK |
| Nathan Lukes | RF | 99 | 329 | 87 | 0.264 | 10 | 32 | 0.318 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.246 | 0.289 | 0.403 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 134 | 510 | 141 | 0.276 | 9 | 43 | 0.301 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.287 | 0.353 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 121 | 402 | 97 | 0.241 | 8 | 51 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.247 | 0.273 | 0.341 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 43 | 37 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Noah Cameron | Starter | 26 | 147.0 | 4.04 | 1.238 | 8.0 | 131 | 6.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 116 | 6.1 | 5 | 1 |
| Steven Cruz | Closer | 49 | 47.0 | 4.79 | 1.383 | 10.7 | 56 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Pearson | Setup Man | 15 | 14.2 | 0.63 | 0.915 | 8.2 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| John Schreiber | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 55 | 42.1 | 4.28 | 1.496 | 7.7 | 36 | 0.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0.2 | 2 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Spencer Arrighetti | Starter | 2 | 7.1 | 7.61 | 1.690 | 10.1 | 8 | 4.2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 81 | 4.2 | 3 | 2 |
| Louis Varland | Closer | 62 | 64.0 | 1.27 | 1.047 | 11.8 | 84 | 1.1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 1.1 | 0 | 3 |
| Tyler Rogers | Setup Man | 64 | 57.0 | 2.05 | 1.298 | 5.5 | 35 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Spencer Miles | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 42 | 76.8 | 3.16 | 1.185 | 9.0 | 77 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Mason Fluharty | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 71 | 41.7 | 3.88 | 1.535 | 12.7 | 59 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
KC wins 6-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Quality edge: -0.4298; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shohei Ohtani | DH | 126 | 488 | 136 | 0.279 | 30 | 78 | 0.379 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.269 | 0.380 | 0.521 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 132 | 499 | 152 | 0.305 | 15 | 61 | 0.379 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.252 | 0.318 | 0.382 | OK |
| Mookie Betts | SS | 98 | 386 | 93 | 0.241 | 16 | 47 | 0.295 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.242 | 0.287 | 0.390 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 124 | 407 | 101 | 0.248 | 26 | 68 | 0.344 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.263 | 0.357 | 0.505 | OK |
| Tommy Edman | 2B | 56 | 200 | 51 | 0.255 | 5 | 25 | 0.332 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.255 | 0.306 | 0.396 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 125 | 451 | 103 | 0.228 | 11 | 57 | 0.320 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.205 | 0.285 | 0.312 | OK |
| Alek Thomas | CF | 6 | 19 | 4 | 0.211 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.209 | 0.241 | 0.351 | OK |
| Teoscar Hernández | LF | 99 | 350 | 87 | 0.249 | 12 | 45 | 0.311 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.221 | 0.277 | 0.346 | OK |
| Hunter Feduccia | C | 17 | 42 | 11 | 0.262 | 1 | 4 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.337 | 0.404 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 44 | 41 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0.195 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Drake Baldwin | DH | 114 | 444 | 124 | 0.279 | 22 | 68 | 0.359 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.326 | 0.412 | OK |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | 84 | 317 | 77 | 0.243 | 13 | 36 | 0.346 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.199 | 0.284 | 0.341 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 137 | 529 | 135 | 0.255 | 36 | 78 | 0.331 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 0.314 | 0.454 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | SS | 130 | 482 | 130 | 0.270 | 10 | 64 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.283 | 0.326 | 0.396 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 131 | 500 | 150 | 0.300 | 23 | 78 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.275 | 0.292 | 0.472 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 137 | 520 | 134 | 0.258 | 20 | 67 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.320 | 0.384 | OK |
| Mike Yastrzemski | LF | 114 | 301 | 67 | 0.223 | 9 | 33 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.176 | 0.267 | 0.299 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 135 | 479 | 107 | 0.223 | 15 | 61 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.196 | 0.261 | 0.317 | OK |
| Sean Murphy | C | 17 | 58 | 13 | 0.224 | 2 | 4 | 0.262 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.136 | 0.162 | 0.206 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 36 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 0.083 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Starter | 24 | 155.9 | 2.60 | 0.904 | 8.8 | 153 | 6.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 101 | 6.1 | 6 | 2 |
| Tanner Scott | Closer | 59 | 50.1 | 2.69 | 1.038 | 12.0 | 67 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Edgardo Henriquez | Setup Man | 55 | 48.1 | 3.18 | 1.123 | 11.8 | 63 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Stewart | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 19 | 16.9 | 2.13 | 1.006 | 9.6 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Phillips | Reliever | 22 | 14.4 | 5.00 | 1.597 | 13.1 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Chris Sale | Starter | 24 | 142.6 | 2.08 | 1.010 | 11.2 | 177 | 6.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 98 | 6.0 | 6 | 2 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 50 | 48.9 | 2.94 | 1.227 | 9.6 | 52 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 64 | 53.3 | 2.70 | 0.957 | 12.5 | 74 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 48 | 54.3 | 2.65 | 1.234 | 12.6 | 76 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brent Suter | Middle Reliever | 6 | 14.1 | 1.28 | 1.206 | 5.1 | 8 | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
LAD wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Quality edge: -1.2106; margin adjustment: -0.5085; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Sal Frelick | LF | 90 | 287 | 69 | 0.240 | 4 | 34 | 0.305 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.234 | 0.284 | 0.347 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 116 | 381 | 97 | 0.255 | 8 | 48 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.319 | 0.384 | 0.506 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 124 | 488 | 127 | 0.260 | 17 | 79 | 0.351 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.214 | 0.293 | 0.343 | OK |
| Christian Yelich | DH | 93 | 355 | 82 | 0.231 | 9 | 45 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.189 | 0.279 | 0.313 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 125 | 481 | 130 | 0.270 | 13 | 69 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.380 | 0.434 | 0.512 | OK |
| Luis Lara | RF | 38 | 124 | 34 | 0.274 | 1 | 19 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.270 | 0.325 | 0.389 | OK |
| Andrew Vaughn | 1B | 86 | 250 | 78 | 0.312 | 5 | 39 | 0.392 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.313 | 0.387 | 0.439 | OK |
| David Hamilton | 3B | 97 | 293 | 70 | 0.239 | 4 | 24 | 0.305 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.172 | 0.242 | 0.292 | OK |
| Cooper Pratt | SS | 49 | 153 | 41 | 0.268 | 3 | 21 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.284 | 0.287 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| A.J. Ewing | CF | 96 | 351 | 85 | 0.242 | 7 | 28 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.227 | 0.297 | 0.325 | OK |
| Francisco Lindor | SS | 79 | 310 | 72 | 0.232 | 14 | 34 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 0.320 | 0.436 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | 3B | 132 | 526 | 139 | 0.264 | 14 | 66 | 0.310 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.286 | 0.405 | OK |
| Carson Benge | RF | 128 | 490 | 134 | 0.273 | 16 | 53 | 0.334 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.296 | 0.346 | 0.463 | OK |
| Jared Young | 1B | 83 | 262 | 70 | 0.267 | 7 | 32 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.293 | 0.405 | OK |
| Luis Robert Jr. | DH | 55 | 193 | 43 | 0.223 | 10 | 23 | 0.296 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.323 | 0.480 | OK |
| Brett Baty | LF | 114 | 364 | 82 | 0.225 | 8 | 40 | 0.290 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.233 | 0.299 | 0.367 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 115 | 408 | 91 | 0.223 | 14 | 43 | 0.285 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.274 | 0.320 | OK |
| Francisco Alvarez | C | 92 | 304 | 69 | 0.227 | 12 | 32 | 0.314 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.128 | 0.220 | 0.247 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0.069 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob Misiorowski | Starter | 25 | 150.3 | 1.74 | 0.758 | 13.3 | 222 | 6.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 94 | 6.0 | 8 | 1 |
| Trevor Megill | Closer | 52 | 51.4 | 1.58 | 0.817 | 10.0 | 57 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaron Ashby | Setup Man | 63 | 68.0 | 3.57 | 1.515 | 13.8 | 104 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chad Patrick | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 47 | 89.1 | 3.33 | 1.291 | 8.4 | 83 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Sean Manaea | Starter | 28 | 118.7 | 4.70 | 1.365 | 9.1 | 120 | 6.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 99 | 6.1 | 4 | 2 |
| Kodai Senga | Closer | 24 | 52.2 | 7.76 | 1.724 | 11.2 | 65 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Daniel Duarte | Setup Man | 20 | 22.1 | 2.44 | 0.905 | 10.2 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Lavender | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 11 | 8.2 | 0.00 | 0.732 | 13.2 | 12 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
MIL wins 4-2