MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

August 19, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
ARI @ BOS4 - 53 - 5BOSBOSBOS wins 5-356%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
ATL @ MIN3 - 45 - 2MINATLATL wins 5-260%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHW @ CHC3 - 43 - 4CHCCHCCHC wins 4-352%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
DET @ PIT2 - 32 - 3PITPITPIT wins 3-254%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAA @ HOU3 - 44 - 3HOULAALAA wins 4-352%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ COL5 - 45 - 4LADLADLAD wins 5-456%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIA @ PHI2 - 32 - 4PHIPHIPHI wins 4-253%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYY @ BAL4 - 34 - 3NYYNYYNYY wins 4-352%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
OAK @ KC4 - 63 - 6KCKCKC wins 6-360%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ NYM5 - 45 - 4SDSDSD wins 5-456%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SEA @ MIL2 - 42 - 4MILMILMIL wins 4-266%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SF @ CLE2 - 32 - 3CLECLECLE wins 3-264%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
STL @ CIN4 - 34 - 3STLSTLSTL wins 4-356%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TOR @ TB4 - 63 - 6TBTBTB wins 6-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
WAS @ TEX3 - 43 - 4TEXTEXTEX wins 4-356%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox

ARI 67-61 (4.52 RPG / 4.49 RA)
3 - 5
BOS 68-59 (4.53 RPG / 3.78 RA)
WINNER: BOS wins 5-3 TARGET: ARI 4 - 5 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 55.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
ARI03000000033
BOS11020001x512

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

ARI Season Quality

Record66-61
Win%0.520
Run Diff3
RD/Game0.024

BOS Season Quality

Record68-58
Win%0.540
Run Diff96
RD/Game0.762

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.5624; margin adjustment: 0.2362; applied: True

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ildemaro Vargas2B 10335995 0.265 9600.306 44000 02 0.000 0.248 0.285 0.409 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 123459113 0.246 18570.345 43000 10 0.000 0.246 0.347 0.497 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 98351108 0.308 10600.385 44000 01 0.000 0.304 0.368 0.538 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 122439108 0.246 9430.356 44110 02 0.250 0.237 0.337 0.365 OK
Nolan ArenadoDH 11840698 0.241 20620.321 43000 10 0.000 0.234 0.305 0.466 OK
Tim Tawa1B 6319647 0.240 7290.286 43000 12 0.000 0.268 0.315 0.418 OK
Jordan LawlarCF 144612 0.261 140.346 33111 02 0.333 0.252 0.296 0.364 OK
Jose Fernandez3B 5116542 0.255 3150.289 33112 00 0.333 0.240 0.275 0.334 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtLF 5919453 0.273 2160.332 33000 02 0.000 0.250 0.311 0.352 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33303 33 311 0.100

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Sogard2B 3010828 0.259 060.367 54111 00 0.250 0.283 0.377 0.375 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 117468134 0.286 15620.324 54212 11 0.500 0.262 0.280 0.415 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 121459119 0.259 22670.338 55000 02 0.000 0.240 0.320 0.462 OK
Willson Contreras1B 112392110 0.281 25740.391 44200 01 0.500 0.274 0.366 0.518 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 11439298 0.250 12590.320 44200 00 0.500 0.280 0.338 0.396 OK
Mickey GasperDH 3611429 0.254 2110.323 44100 00 0.250 0.248 0.320 0.393 OK
Andruw MonasterioSS 8225367 0.265 6370.321 44111 01 0.250 0.261 0.315 0.408 OK
Jarren DuranLF 11644790 0.201 16550.261 44111 00 0.250 0.203 0.259 0.305 OK
Connor WongC 5616241 0.253 4220.337 43210 10 0.667 0.238 0.298 0.461 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393612 55 25 0.333

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon PfaadtStarter 2289.43.22 1.1746.161 6.193315112 6.1 5 3
Brandyn GarciaMiddle Reliever 3626.82.01 0.78412.136 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever 5042.93.36 1.2359.043 0.01000013 0.0 0 0
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 4840.42.90 1.11412.355 0.22220015 0.2 0 2

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Payton TolleStarter 20112.93.03 1.08110.2128 6.02333894 6.0 8 3
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 4140.21.34 1.11911.652 1.00000215 1.0 2 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 66.10.00 0.98414.810 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Tyron GuerreroMiddle Reliever 3127.32.31 1.09911.535 1.01000016 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

BOS wins 5-3


Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins

ATL 74-54 (4.75 RPG / 3.93 RA)
5 - 2
MIN 63-65 (4.62 RPG / 4.95 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 5-2 TARGET: ATL 3 - 4 MIN (MIN) Confidence: 59.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
ATL002020001510
MIN10001000026

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.2
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff-8
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

ATL Season Quality

Record74-53
Win%0.583
Run Diff107
RD/Game0.843

MIN Season Quality

Record62-65
Win%0.488
Run Diff-43
RD/Game-0.339

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.8584; margin adjustment: -0.3605; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Drake BaldwinC 103399112 0.281 21630.364 54100 12 0.250 0.297 0.356 0.493 OK
Matt Olson1B 126486127 0.261 36770.337 54111 01 0.250 0.249 0.320 0.520 OK
Michael Harris IICF 120457134 0.293 20680.319 55211 00 0.400 0.304 0.322 0.443 OK
Dominic SmithDH 8924865 0.262 8420.303 44000 01 0.000 0.169 0.213 0.260 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 126480121 0.252 20640.308 44111 00 0.250 0.214 0.269 0.341 OK
Mike YastrzemskiLF 10427662 0.225 9330.308 44211 01 0.500 0.164 0.253 0.337 OK
Austin Riley3B 12544799 0.221 15580.294 44100 01 0.250 0.219 0.269 0.357 OK
Jim JarvisSS 3610623 0.217 1110.265 44000 02 0.000 0.192 0.237 0.282 OK
Mauricio DubónLF 119442115 0.260 10610.307 44211 01 0.500 0.245 0.291 0.360 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393710 55 19 0.270

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Luke KeaschallRF 117396107 0.270 7360.362 44100 02 0.250 0.283 0.355 0.415 OK
Byron BuxtonCF 8734790 0.259 25450.322 44100 01 0.250 0.166 0.234 0.310 OK
Josh BellDH 122450116 0.258 17760.320 44111 02 0.250 0.274 0.330 0.447 OK
Kody Clemens2B 10940795 0.233 21580.291 44211 01 0.500 0.234 0.287 0.445 OK
Royce Lewis1B 9233781 0.240 13450.313 44000 02 0.000 0.224 0.289 0.357 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 10032989 0.271 10410.351 43000 10 0.000 0.211 0.286 0.329 OK
Brooks Lee3B 118447109 0.244 18650.298 43000 10 0.000 0.233 0.277 0.408 OK
Victor CaratiniC 8928264 0.227 7380.315 44000 01 0.000 0.210 0.293 0.290 OK
Kaelen CulpepperSS 9318 0.258 120.333 33100 01 0.333 0.257 0.302 0.358 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 22 210 0.182

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
AJ Smith-ShawverStarter 14.14.39 1.4638.84 4.15222579 4.1 5 2
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 4543.83.29 1.25610.149 1.00000018 1.0 0 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 5849.82.17 0.82312.770 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Didier FuentesMiddle Reliever 4548.52.97 1.23713.070 1.21000324 1.2 3 0
Dylan DoddMiddle Reliever 3634.82.59 0.97710.641 1.00000115 1.0 1 0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Taj BradleyStarter 24133.84.04 1.30810.2151 5.294416102 5.2 6 4
Yoendrys GómezMiddle Reliever 4333.82.13 1.33110.138 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Andrew MorrisMiddle Reliever 4952.13.80 1.4789.756 1.00000015 1.0 0 0
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 66.03.00 1.66710.57 1.00000110 1.0 1 0
Kody FunderburkMiddle Reliever 4233.73.20 1.4549.134 0.11110114 0.1 1 1

Game Summary

ATL wins 5-2


Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs

CHW 66-60 (4.8 RPG / 4.43 RA)
3 - 4
CHC 74-54 (5.12 RPG / 4.34 RA)
WINNER: CHC wins 4-3 TARGET: CHW 3 - 4 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 51.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CHW20000010035
CHC00000111147

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff12
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.5
Avg Allowed5.4
Run Diff1
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak2W

CHW Season Quality

Record65-59
Win%0.524
Run Diff45
RD/Game0.363

CHC Season Quality

Record73-53
Win%0.579
Run Diff102
RD/Game0.810

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2965; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 10436299 0.273 8360.367 44000 00 0.000 0.258 0.325 0.378 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 9032175 0.234 29580.372 43210 11 0.667 0.231 0.372 0.568 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 122460110 0.239 28720.343 43000 11 0.000 0.252 0.339 0.524 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 11133783 0.246 13620.308 44112 00 0.250 0.249 0.312 0.425 OK
Braden MontgomeryRF 5821049 0.233 4280.325 44000 01 0.000 0.237 0.321 0.363 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 11844797 0.217 26710.295 43000 10 0.000 0.236 0.286 0.398 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 119444122 0.275 12490.349 44000 01 0.000 0.243 0.309 0.375 OK
Tristan PetersCF 11333291 0.274 7430.332 44100 00 0.250 0.318 0.364 0.491 OK
Jake RogersC 140 0.000 000.000 33111 01 0.333 0.200 0.296 0.328
TEAM TOTALS 35325 33 35 0.156

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongDH 125475135 0.284 31790.383 54112 12 0.250 0.282 0.371 0.604 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 108411112 0.273 22740.363 44100 02 0.250 0.242 0.317 0.478 OK
Alex Bregman3B 123487126 0.259 16630.350 44111 00 0.250 0.301 0.373 0.436 OK
Michael Busch1B 123469115 0.245 14620.351 44100 00 0.250 0.246 0.332 0.412 OK
Nico HoernerSS 122488130 0.266 7580.322 44111 00 0.250 0.283 0.334 0.372 OK
Pedro Ramirez2B 4713239 0.295 2150.347 43110 10 0.333 0.280 0.331 0.418 OK
Carson KellyC 8829377 0.263 7420.343 43000 12 0.000 0.175 0.252 0.263 OK
Ian HappLF 11943995 0.216 20510.322 43100 11 0.333 0.207 0.305 0.365 OK
Tyrone TaylorCF 8204 0.200 000.304 44000 01 0.000 0.233 0.284 0.428 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37337 44 48 0.212

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sean NewcombStarter 4558.22.94 1.2549.964 6.041107100 6.0 7 1
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 4151.92.60 1.11813.276 1.11113034 1.1 0 1
Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever 3427.13.65 1.66112.337 0.01111015 0.0 0 1
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever 4840.63.33 1.4539.844 0.21110115 0.2 1 1

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Clay HolmesStarter 210.23.53 0.9803.54 6.03222593 6.0 5 2
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 5651.12.47 1.29211.163 1.02110019 1.0 0 1
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 64.410.23 2.50014.37 1.00000011 1.0 0 0
Trent ThorntonMiddle Reliever 3633.92.65 1.2095.621 1.00001017 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 4-3


Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

DET 61-66 (4.54 RPG / 3.9 RA)
2 - 3
PIT 63-66 (5.01 RPG / 4.77 RA)
WINNER: PIT wins 3-2 TARGET: DET 2 - 3 PIT (PIT) Confidence: 53.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
DET00020000025
PIT00100002x36

DET Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

DET Season Quality

Record61-65
Win%0.484
Run Diff83
RD/Game0.659

PIT Season Quality

Record62-66
Win%0.484
Run Diff30
RD/Game0.234

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2616; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Colt KeithDH 11332888 0.268 9310.315 43000 12 0.000 0.279 0.320 0.446 OK
Gleyber Torres2B 6925970 0.270 8330.380 43000 11 0.000 0.282 0.372 0.391 OK
Kevin McGonigleSS 121464131 0.282 13500.386 44100 01 0.250 0.252 0.343 0.405 OK
Dillon DinglerC 116443115 0.260 26820.323 44100 01 0.250 0.127 0.185 0.274 OK
Brett CallahanLF 394 0.444 150.444 44000 01 0.000 0.340 0.349 0.771 OK
Zach McKinstryRF 9730067 0.223 4250.303 44211 01 0.500 0.225 0.306 0.328 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 12442896 0.224 20620.314 43011 12 0.000 0.205 0.289 0.348 OK
Max ClarkCF 176617 0.258 190.310 44100 01 0.250 0.230 0.265 0.354 OK
Hao-Yu Lee3B 7520857 0.274 6300.308 33000 00 0.000 0.286 0.331 0.419 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35325 22 310 0.156

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Spencer Horwitz1B 8628875 0.260 10380.367 44000 02 0.000 0.221 0.313 0.326 OK
Brandon LoweDH 116460115 0.250 26790.314 44212 01 0.500 0.250 0.308 0.463 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 125459121 0.264 15660.374 44111 00 0.250 0.228 0.322 0.368 OK
Esmerlyn ValdezRF 5518044 0.244 11330.362 43000 00 0.000 0.245 0.356 0.477 OK
Oneil CruzCF 6425367 0.265 15460.350 33000 01 0.000 0.270 0.370 0.544 OK
Nick Gonzales2B 115437133 0.304 4510.361 33210 00 0.667 0.307 0.364 0.398 OK
Jacob GonzalezSS 256512 0.185 270.194 33000 00 0.000 0.210 0.254 0.362 OK
Jared Triolo3B 8225161 0.243 2230.319 33000 01 0.000 0.231 0.294 0.302 OK
Henry DavisC 7122137 0.167 8320.250 33100 02 0.333 0.164 0.225 0.257 OK
TEAM TOTALS 31306 33 07 0.200

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jackson JobeStarter 28.26.59 1.4638.88 4.13220472 4.1 4 2
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 3631.83.40 1.19511.039 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Tyler HoltonMiddle Reliever 5348.93.68 1.4938.345 0.20000016 0.2 0 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 5044.13.06 1.6338.039 1.2311028 1.2 2 1

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Paul SkenesStarter 25132.83.93 1.13711.2166 5.14221794 5.1 7 2
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 33.09.00 2.0009.03 1.20001225 1.2 2 0
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 5042.13.63 1.25917.180 1.01001020 1.0 0 0
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 5249.43.28 1.13411.764 1.00000120 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

PIT wins 3-2


Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros

LAA 50-76 (4.05 RPG / 4.71 RA)
4 - 3
HOU 63-63 (4.58 RPG / 4.83 RA)
WINNER: LAA wins 4-3 TARGET: LAA 3 - 4 HOU (HOU) Confidence: 51.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
LAA12100000044
HOU10020000038

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs2.9
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff-9
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff-7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

LAA Season Quality

Record49-76
Win%0.392
Run Diff-86
RD/Game-0.688

HOU Season Quality

Record63-62
Win%0.504
Run Diff-30
RD/Game-0.240

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.385; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Wade MecklerLF 6320058 0.290 3200.352 54000 11 0.000 0.273 0.336 0.359 OK
Mike TroutCF 10738893 0.240 20450.381 44000 01 0.000 0.220 0.333 0.366 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 104384108 0.281 7480.357 43000 11 0.000 0.318 0.391 0.411 OK
Zach NetoSS 122483108 0.224 20540.309 43110 10 0.333 0.195 0.266 0.333 OK
Moisés BallesterosC 13476 0.128 000.196 43111 11 0.333 0.175 0.247 0.267 OK
Vaughn GrissomDH 8028871 0.247 7460.302 43100 11 0.333 0.235 0.275 0.348 OK
Josh LoweRF 7722846 0.202 10260.256 42011 12 0.000 0.205 0.253 0.386 OK
Denzer Guzman3B 4817641 0.233 5180.278 44112 00 0.250 0.210 0.249 0.290 OK
Oswald Peraza2B 9129467 0.228 7240.274 44000 01 0.000 0.111 0.147 0.196 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37304 44 68 0.133

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 7731088 0.284 14400.339 55100 02 0.200 0.214 0.255 0.385 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 123446143 0.321 36880.435 44111 01 0.250 0.266 0.369 0.510 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 118432110 0.255 16670.349 44000 01 0.000 0.259 0.331 0.412 OK
Jose Altuve2B 9938695 0.246 13360.309 44000 01 0.000 0.255 0.317 0.396 OK
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF 318118 0.222 2150.344 43000 11 0.000 0.229 0.338 0.323 OK
Cam SmithRF 11440390 0.223 17450.291 43100 11 0.333 0.229 0.281 0.462 OK
Christian Walker1B 120445104 0.234 23710.312 44310 00 0.750 0.199 0.261 0.374 OK
Taylor TrammellCF 6317839 0.219 7200.302 44212 00 0.500 0.197 0.268 0.366 OK
Christian VázquezC 7120845 0.216 6240.268 44000 01 0.000 0.209 0.263 0.348 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37358 33 28 0.229

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Walbert UrenaStarter 22105.82.72 1.2768.7102 6.073316101 6.0 6 3
Ben JoyceMiddle Reliever 66.00.00 0.33312.08 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Samy Natera Jr.Middle Reliever 2223.52.30 0.93616.142 1.1100108 1.1 0 0
José FerminMiddle Reliever 3935.63.79 1.51712.449 0.20000118 0.2 1 0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Player-814490Starter 000.00 0.0000.00 1.23445357 1.2 3 4
Josh HaderMiddle Reliever 3029.30.61 0.68312.641 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 4740.84.85 1.54412.657 1.00000218 1.0 2 0
Steven OkertMiddle Reliever 6153.52.36 0.97210.462 1.00000216 1.0 2 0
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 5551.24.75 1.3289.353 1.20001025 1.2 0 0
Bennett SousaMiddle Reliever 1611.93.78 1.59712.116 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Bryan KingReliever 5044.94.61 1.5818.643 1.10000018 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

LAA wins 4-3


Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies

LAD 76-51 (4.99 RPG / 3.87 RA)
5 - 4
COL 50-76 (4.82 RPG / 5.77 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 5-4 TARGET: LAD 5 - 4 COL (LAD) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
1234567891011RH
LAD01000110002510
COL0003000000146

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

COL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed6.2
Run Diff-11
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

LAD Season Quality

Record75-51
Win%0.595
Run Diff142
RD/Game1.127

COL Season Quality

Record50-75
Win%0.400
Run Diff-119
RD/Game-0.952

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.6271; margin adjustment: -2.6034; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 116448131 0.292 30780.390 65311 10 0.600 0.309 0.392 0.616 OK
Andy PagesCF 124483132 0.273 21790.338 64000 20 0.000 0.289 0.339 0.487 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 9031679 0.250 11420.310 64111 21 0.250 0.244 0.297 0.377 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 122460140 0.304 15580.379 64110 21 0.250 0.320 0.391 0.458 OK
Mookie BettsSS 8834681 0.234 15420.283 66211 02 0.333 0.219 0.259 0.359 OK
Miguel Rojas2B 7216948 0.284 3180.317 65000 00 0.000 0.162 0.230 0.313 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 11641796 0.230 11550.320 55100 00 0.200 0.169 0.251 0.308 OK
Enrique Hernández3B 13286 0.214 120.241 55212 02 0.400 0.223 0.256 0.392 OK
Ben RortvedtC 7132 0.154 010.154 55000 02 0.000 0.098 0.111 0.150 OK
TEAM TOTALS 514310 55 78 0.233

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyRF 105400118 0.295 13670.331 55110 00 0.200 0.277 0.314 0.459 OK
Mickey MoniakDH 8529677 0.260 19570.298 54000 12 0.000 0.231 0.272 0.450 OK
Cole CarriggCF 5519455 0.284 5340.367 55100 03 0.200 0.263 0.336 0.438 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 119431127 0.295 13590.372 55100 01 0.200 0.275 0.338 0.377 OK
Zac VeenLF 6155 0.333 270.375 55111 01 0.200 0.200 0.252 0.357 OK
Connor Norby3B 7194 0.211 010.348 55111 01 0.200 0.207 0.296 0.324 OK
Adael Amador2B 462 0.333 140.556 53000 21 0.000 0.111 0.368 0.218 OK
Brett SullivanC 5616540 0.242 7270.277 44112 02 0.250 0.147 0.195 0.340 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 11337979 0.208 9380.256 43000 01 0.000 0.174 0.236 0.266 OK
TEAM TOTALS 43396 44 312 0.154

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Roki SasakiStarter 21108.94.55 1.3138.9108 5.253336103 5.2 6 3
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 5445.92.55 1.02412.262 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 5634.03.71 1.55914.856 0.20000114 0.2 1 0
Edgardo HenriquezMiddle Reliever 5043.73.50 1.21311.154 1.20000221 1.2 2 0
Kyle HurtReliever 3837.14.61 1.48211.949 1.21110224 1.2 2 1

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle FreelandStarter 22117.46.44 1.4827.598 4.263343105 4.2 3 3
Jordan RomanoMiddle Reliever 1312.22.95 1.55710.314 1.11110120 1.1 1 1
Brennan BernardinoMiddle Reliever 5841.13.50 1.5098.137 1.11112028 1.1 0 1
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever 3731.86.79 1.79210.236 1.00000117 1.0 1 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 4945.16.78 1.92910.050 1.20000025 1.2 0 0
Zach AgnosMiddle Reliever 3269.15.73 1.4916.046 1.02001328 1.0 3 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 11)


Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies

MIA 64-64 (4.38 RPG / 4.27 RA)
2 - 4
PHI 70-58 (4.48 RPG / 4.37 RA)
WINNER: PHI wins 4-2 TARGET: MIA 2 - 3 PHI (PHI) Confidence: 52.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
MIA20000000026
PHI40000000x47

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.4
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff18
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.4
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff11
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak5W

MIA Season Quality

Record64-63
Win%0.504
Run Diff17
RD/Game0.134

PHI Season Quality

Record69-58
Win%0.543
Run Diff12
RD/Game0.094

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0184; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jakob MarseeCF 11940584 0.207 7290.325 55100 00 0.200 0.231 0.329 0.362 OK
Otto LopezSS 123494152 0.308 9540.343 55200 01 0.400 0.238 0.281 0.344 OK
Xavier Edwards2B 125462132 0.286 6470.366 43000 10 0.000 0.290 0.370 0.368 OK
Griffin Conine1B 5716947 0.278 14300.365 43111 10 0.333 0.282 0.355 0.557 OK
Heriberto HernándezLF 9331171 0.228 18510.299 43000 11 0.000 0.220 0.291 0.423 OK
Owen CaissieDH 9025357 0.225 13520.288 43111 10 0.333 0.216 0.279 0.424 OK
Esteury RuizRF 6314437 0.257 6110.333 43000 12 0.000 0.130 0.192 0.273 OK
Joe MackC 7322153 0.240 12360.297 44100 01 0.250 0.240 0.298 0.431 OK
Javier Sanoja3B 9832488 0.272 5470.305 44000 00 0.000 0.258 0.295 0.409 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38336 22 55 0.182

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 119448110 0.246 36730.361 44210 00 0.500 0.244 0.336 0.487 OK
Trea TurnerSS 119497123 0.247 17480.298 44110 02 0.250 0.205 0.261 0.325 OK
Bryce HarperRF 125440114 0.259 25720.381 44000 01 0.000 0.271 0.410 0.476 OK
Luis Arraez2B 146217 0.274 190.292 43100 01 0.333 0.313 0.343 0.400 OK
Alec Bohm1B 120451110 0.244 14700.303 43212 10 0.667 0.281 0.327 0.447 OK
Bryson Stott3B 120417111 0.266 9580.345 44112 00 0.250 0.271 0.360 0.417 OK
Brandon MarshLF 119437119 0.272 17540.318 44000 00 0.000 0.217 0.280 0.367 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 11233789 0.264 2300.311 42000 10 0.000 0.297 0.334 0.404 OK
Garrett StubbsC 15415 0.122 020.196 33000 00 0.000 0.092 0.137 0.142 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35317 44 24 0.226

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sandy AlcantaraStarter 26168.83.47 1.1796.9130 6.174412105 6.1 2 4
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 4136.76.13 1.33513.254 0.00000015 0.0 0 0
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 5345.94.71 1.63412.061 1.00000217 1.0 2 0
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever 5146.54.06 1.24712.062 0.2000107 0.2 0 0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Aaron NolaStarter 25126.55.48 1.4949.8138 5.16221295 5.1 2 2
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 4643.41.45 0.99112.962 1.00002121 1.0 1 0
Jonathan BowlanMiddle Reliever 4841.73.24 1.10312.357 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 5444.34.06 1.40011.054 1.00002121 1.0 1 0
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 76.24.35 0.96811.68 0.20000012 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

PHI wins 4-2


New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles

NYY 70-55 (4.43 RPG / 3.74 RA)
4 - 3
BAL 61-65 (4.52 RPG / 4.75 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 4-3 TARGET: NYY 4 - 3 BAL (NYY) Confidence: 52.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
NYY01110010049
BAL00110000134

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.2
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff6
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak2W

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff5
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

NYY Season Quality

Record70-55
Win%0.560
Run Diff87
RD/Game0.696

BAL Season Quality

Record61-65
Win%0.484
Run Diff-29
RD/Game-0.230

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6858; margin adjustment: -0.288; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 10035880 0.223 16530.310 54000 12 0.000 0.254 0.320 0.538 OK
Ben RiceDH 117437109 0.249 32740.346 55210 02 0.400 0.190 0.273 0.427 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 124610 0.217 130.260 54212 10 0.500 0.250 0.283 0.427 OK
Heliot RamosLF 12393 0.077 000.217 55210 02 0.400 0.163 0.220 0.294 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 11339886 0.216 17480.291 43100 01 0.333 0.198 0.270 0.344 OK
Spencer JonesRF 4914230 0.211 5180.291 44000 00 0.000 0.211 0.281 0.371 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 9426858 0.216 10310.280 42112 11 0.500 0.181 0.254 0.301 OK
George Lombard Jr.SS 124112 0.293 230.370 44000 00 0.000 0.284 0.356 0.415 OK
Austin WellsC 8824844 0.177 8170.270 44100 00 0.250 0.185 0.267 0.318 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40359 44 38 0.257

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson Holliday2B 7021250 0.236 6250.324 44000 03 0.000 0.243 0.319 0.365 OK
Pete AlonsoDH 123461124 0.269 28810.361 43000 10 0.000 0.294 0.375 0.544 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 122493108 0.219 19500.301 44000 01 0.000 0.216 0.287 0.389 OK
Samuel Basallo1B 8328168 0.242 16460.302 44211 00 0.500 0.218 0.274 0.417 OK
Coby Mayo3B 9429564 0.217 17470.282 44000 01 0.000 0.216 0.276 0.478 OK
Dylan BeaversLF 6620449 0.240 3230.310 44111 02 0.250 0.230 0.289 0.343 OK
Leody TaverasRF 10333476 0.228 7440.300 32000 11 0.000 0.233 0.296 0.360 OK
Colton CowserCF 9824954 0.217 10300.309 33111 01 0.333 0.152 0.237 0.346 OK
Carlos NarváezC 12333 0.091 000.189 33000 00 0.000 0.126 0.188 0.196 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33314 33 29 0.129

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Will WarrenStarter 24113.14.62 1.4689.3117 4.23222582 4.2 5 2
David BednarMiddle Reliever 5151.62.62 1.08511.063 1.10000218 1.1 2 0
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 6451.11.94 1.42913.778 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 5837.93.80 1.79415.063 1.21110124 1.2 1 1

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chris BassittStarter 1359.85.27 1.6726.040 4.28330495 4.2 4 3
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever 5234.12.90 1.11410.038 2.01111238 2.0 2 1
Andrew KittredgeMiddle Reliever 4333.64.02 1.5188.331 1.10001021 1.1 0 0
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 5746.63.09 0.96610.454 1.00001217 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-3


Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals

OAK 49-77 (4.35 RPG / 5.77 RA)
3 - 6
KC 53-74 (4.14 RPG / 4.98 RA)
WINNER: KC wins 6-3 TARGET: OAK 4 - 6 KC (KC) Confidence: 60.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
OAK00001200035
KC12200100x611

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed5.9
Run Diff-10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

KC Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3W

OAK Season Quality

Record49-77
Win%0.389
Run Diff-179
RD/Game-1.421

KC Season Quality

Record53-74
Win%0.417
Run Diff-106
RD/Game-0.835

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4716; margin adjustment: 0.1981; applied: True

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Henry BolteCF 7927373 0.267 6250.336 44000 01 0.000 0.282 0.322 0.401 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 10834490 0.262 6410.312 44000 00 0.000 0.291 0.329 0.449 OK
Zack GelofLF 7125670 0.273 14340.333 44100 01 0.250 0.262 0.326 0.480 OK
Lawrence ButlerRF 11133771 0.211 11360.297 44100 01 0.250 0.235 0.313 0.446 OK
Tommy White1B 2810528 0.267 240.294 44211 02 0.500 0.272 0.304 0.380 OK
Carlos CortesDH 9025165 0.259 7350.332 43111 10 0.333 0.254 0.320 0.408 OK
Jonah HeimC 6622447 0.210 10310.269 43000 11 0.000 0.173 0.252 0.308 OK
Donovan WaltonSS 23489 0.188 040.371 33011 00 0.000 0.260 0.332 0.407 OK
Max Muncy3B 6018840 0.213 5220.284 33000 01 0.000 0.176 0.242 0.301 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34325 33 27 0.156

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Loftin2B 8626762 0.232 5350.317 55110 00 0.200 0.213 0.293 0.336 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 107419120 0.286 15460.359 44211 01 0.500 0.287 0.366 0.513 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 117422116 0.275 22600.325 44210 00 0.500 0.335 0.369 0.551 OK
Maikel Garcia3B 6927373 0.267 3310.320 44100 01 0.250 0.248 0.296 0.347 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 8029670 0.236 6340.322 43111 10 0.333 0.266 0.338 0.379 OK
Salvador PerezDH 11644596 0.216 16540.261 44100 00 0.250 0.214 0.242 0.324 OK
Carter JensenC 11641291 0.221 16560.302 43000 10 0.000 0.187 0.276 0.331 OK
Tyler TolbertLF 379329 0.312 380.369 44213 00 0.500 0.304 0.373 0.460 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 6619945 0.226 4160.278 44111 01 0.250 0.213 0.257 0.302 OK
TEAM TOTALS 373511 66 23 0.314

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jeffrey SpringsStarter 22105.26.33 1.5217.588 4.08442282 4.0 2 4
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 5844.44.66 1.93714.672 1.01000014 1.0 0 0
Elvis AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 3932.75.50 1.49813.248 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
Luis MedinaMiddle Reliever 4151.93.47 1.48411.667 1.1111005 1.1 0 1
Seth JohnsonMiddle Reliever 44.26.43 2.14312.96 0.01110020 0.0 0 1
Brady BassoMiddle Reliever 1620.24.46 1.5358.519 0.2000012 0.2 1 0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Seth LugoStarter 25137.04.66 1.4017.1108 5.25332594 5.2 5 3
Steven CruzMiddle Reliever 4441.94.51 1.31311.051 1.00000015 1.0 0 0
Nate PearsonMiddle Reliever 109.20.98 0.8708.89 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
John SchreiberMiddle Reliever 5038.74.19 1.5767.733 1.1000025 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

KC wins 6-3


San Diego Padres @ New York Mets

SD 68-60 (4.24 RPG / 4.22 RA)
5 - 4
NYM 58-70 (4.15 RPG / 4.48 RA)
WINNER: SD wins 5-4 TARGET: SD 5 - 4 NYM (SD) Confidence: 56.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
12345678910RH
SD2001100001510
NYM100101010048

SD Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff21
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff0
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

SD Season Quality

Record68-59
Win%0.535
Run Diff5
RD/Game0.039

NYM Season Quality

Record57-70
Win%0.449
Run Diff-44
RD/Game-0.346

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5046; margin adjustment: -0.2119; applied: True

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 123486136 0.280 15590.351 54111 00 0.250 0.274 0.336 0.590 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 7425558 0.227 4200.311 55100 01 0.200 0.247 0.305 0.349 OK
Manny MachadoDH 124461100 0.217 24710.302 55112 03 0.200 0.232 0.317 0.417 OK
Ty France1B 9532494 0.290 17520.345 55210 01 0.400 0.266 0.308 0.424 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 123479116 0.242 19630.293 54111 11 0.250 0.216 0.262 0.374 OK
Luis RengifoLF 299931 0.313 4130.409 54100 10 0.250 0.242 0.323 0.356 OK
Luis CampusanoC 4513140 0.305 5230.401 55111 02 0.200 0.272 0.363 0.469 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 12041190 0.219 11460.318 55100 00 0.200 0.180 0.296 0.303 OK
Sung-Mun Song3B 4411123 0.207 1150.296 43100 11 0.333 0.128 0.213 0.181 OK
TEAM TOTALS 444010 55 39 0.250

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
A.J. EwingCF 8530877 0.250 7280.326 55111 01 0.200 0.215 0.298 0.323 OK
Francisco LindorSS 6926864 0.239 12320.331 55000 01 0.000 0.221 0.311 0.402 OK
Bo Bichette3B 123493132 0.268 12630.312 55210 02 0.400 0.315 0.356 0.446 OK
Carson BengeRF 118450121 0.269 14490.332 53111 11 0.333 0.257 0.316 0.396 OK
Jared Young1B 7222058 0.264 7260.332 44212 01 0.500 0.191 0.240 0.344 OK
Francisco AlvarezDH 8528066 0.236 12290.326 44000 01 0.000 0.212 0.298 0.366 OK
Brett BatyLF 10434274 0.216 8380.282 44200 02 0.500 0.198 0.267 0.333 OK
Marcus Semien2B 10537179 0.213 14410.275 44000 00 0.000 0.187 0.253 0.320 OK
Luis TorrensC 6820350 0.246 7310.311 44000 01 0.000 0.260 0.318 0.563 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40388 44 110 0.211

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael KingStarter 25140.03.47 1.2078.0124 5.26331793 5.2 7 3
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 5049.30.91 0.87217.395 1.00000018 1.0 0 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 5859.63.17 1.24212.583 1.21110224 1.2 2 1
Jeremiah EstradaMiddle Reliever 3125.63.87 1.25013.037 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Kyle HartReliever 3446.94.41 1.1949.449 0.20000112 0.2 1 0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Robert StockStarter 312.16.69 1.9019.713 4.07220578 4.0 5 2
Kodai SengaMiddle Reliever 1847.18.22 1.74111.560 1.22111114 1.2 1 1
Daniel DuarteMiddle Reliever 1518.70.96 0.6958.217 1.10000220 1.1 2 0
Nathan LavenderMiddle Reliever 63.70.00 0.81114.66 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Jefry YanMiddle Reliever 63.82.37 2.63216.67 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Dedniel NúñezMiddle Reliever 55.110.59 2.3538.85 0.00111015 0.0 0 1
Jack WeisenburgerReliever 34.12.20 1.2208.84 1.01111026 1.0 0 1

Game Summary

SD wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)


Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers

SEA 59-67 (3.88 RPG / 4.24 RA)
2 - 4
MIL 78-48 (5.0 RPG / 3.75 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 4-2 TARGET: SEA 2 - 4 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
SEA01100000024
MIL00010030x47

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.1
Avg Allowed6.2
Run Diff-31
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff19
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak3W

SEA Season Quality

Record59-67
Win%0.468
Run Diff-45
RD/Game-0.357

MIL Season Quality

Record78-48
Win%0.619
Run Diff158
RD/Game1.254

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.54; margin adjustment: 2.464; applied: True

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brendan Donovan3B 3412532 0.256 3120.338 44100 02 0.250 0.224 0.276 0.332 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 118438120 0.274 17530.366 44100 03 0.250 0.219 0.282 0.391 OK
Dominic CanzoneRF 10933587 0.260 19520.332 44000 01 0.000 0.257 0.324 0.467 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 114450115 0.256 19520.320 43111 00 0.333 0.220 0.272 0.361 OK
Josh Naylor1B 117454121 0.267 10440.330 44111 02 0.250 0.266 0.315 0.365 OK
Cole Young2B 126461119 0.258 15560.315 33000 01 0.000 0.216 0.253 0.351 OK
Cal RaleighC 9233152 0.157 13440.271 33000 01 0.000 0.120 0.249 0.257 OK
Taylor WardDH 8325 0.156 000.156 32000 10 0.000 0.214 0.322 0.308 OK
Brock RoddenSS 4134 0.308 030.412 33000 01 0.000 0.282 0.401 0.436 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32304 22 111 0.133

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brice Turang2B 113442121 0.274 16760.364 44111 01 0.250 0.235 0.335 0.388 OK
Jackson ChourioLF 90372104 0.280 17500.342 43000 02 0.000 0.258 0.318 0.421 OK
Jake BauersRF 109372103 0.277 21700.384 44111 03 0.250 0.312 0.425 0.551 OK
William ContrerasC 115442114 0.258 12620.329 44100 01 0.250 0.243 0.315 0.384 OK
Christian YelichDH 8332271 0.220 9420.304 43200 10 0.667 0.213 0.277 0.379 OK
Andrew Vaughn1B 7622368 0.305 5360.384 44000 00 0.000 0.240 0.317 0.355 OK
Luis LaraCF 278821 0.239 1150.313 43000 11 0.000 0.267 0.330 0.439 OK
Joey Ortiz3B 8826364 0.243 6320.312 33211 00 0.667 0.263 0.335 0.397 OK
Cooper PrattSS 4113035 0.269 2160.344 32011 01 0.000 0.236 0.313 0.322 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34307 44 29 0.233

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan GilbertStarter 24141.63.37 1.0179.7152 6.131108107 6.1 8 1
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 4743.04.19 1.25615.172 0.23331021 0.2 0 3
José A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 5545.44.16 1.4988.141 1.01001120 1.0 1 0

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dustin MayStarter 213.02.08 0.9237.611 5.24221887 5.2 8 2
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 4847.31.71 0.80310.354 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 5862.03.77 1.54814.197 1.00000118 1.0 1 0
Chad PatrickMiddle Reliever 4181.63.31 1.2758.678 1.10000118 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 4-2


San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians

SF 52-74 (4.1 RPG / 4.65 RA)
2 - 3
CLE 61-65 (3.98 RPG / 4.18 RA)
WINNER: CLE wins 3-2 TARGET: SF 2 - 3 CLE (CLE) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
SF02000000027
CLE00001200x310

SF Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.1
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-18
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

SF Season Quality

Record52-74
Win%0.413
Run Diff-69
RD/Game-0.548

CLE Season Quality

Record61-65
Win%0.484
Run Diff-25
RD/Game-0.198

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4366; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jonah CoxCF 173510 0.286 130.286 54000 12 0.000 0.245 0.253 0.452 OK
Rafael DeversDH 124465114 0.245 24680.320 54000 11 0.000 0.231 0.304 0.458 OK
Willy AdamesSS 11544099 0.225 18470.285 44100 00 0.250 0.228 0.292 0.375 OK
Bryce Eldridge1B 8228972 0.249 14330.343 43000 10 0.000 0.244 0.338 0.453 OK
Victor BericotoLF 257419 0.257 4100.267 44100 02 0.250 0.241 0.254 0.420 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 112428126 0.294 8440.331 44210 01 0.500 0.222 0.254 0.338 OK
Osleivis Basabe2B 175615 0.268 380.300 44212 01 0.500 0.258 0.277 0.432 OK
Drew CavanaughC 297619 0.250 050.352 43000 10 0.000 0.246 0.338 0.301 OK
Christian Koss3B 298417 0.202 020.221 44100 01 0.250 0.221 0.240 0.304 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 22 48 0.206

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanLF 112398105 0.264 2230.362 43211 10 0.667 0.274 0.371 0.347 OK
Nathaniel Lowe1B 103510 0.286 280.297 44111 03 0.250 0.268 0.320 0.469 OK
Angel MartínezRF 7929069 0.238 12440.270 44000 01 0.000 0.247 0.265 0.433 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 9133678 0.232 9350.329 44200 01 0.500 0.185 0.273 0.274 OK
Angel Genao3B 103712 0.324 130.390 44100 00 0.250 0.278 0.333 0.414 OK
Petey HalpinCF 4612227 0.221 280.250 43100 11 0.333 0.149 0.171 0.237 OK
Austin HedgesC 5716343 0.264 4190.337 44211 00 0.500 0.214 0.304 0.329 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 120422108 0.256 10510.317 44100 01 0.250 0.240 0.285 0.373 OK
Patrick BaileyC 5115532 0.206 5200.259 44000 02 0.000 0.173 0.238 0.283 OK
TEAM TOTALS 363410 33 29 0.294

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Matt GageStarter 3319.47.42 2.26810.222 4.06331772 4.0 7 3
Dylan SmithMiddle Reliever 2721.33.38 1.40811.828 2.03001133 2.0 1 0
Sam HentgesMiddle Reliever 3523.53.83 2.00012.332 1.01000018 1.0 0 0
JT BrubakerMiddle Reliever 3853.03.57 1.2646.538 1.00000123 1.0 1 0

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Parker MessickStarter 24136.52.70 1.0779.4142 6.052236104 6.0 6 2
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 5251.52.45 1.18413.577 1.00000220 1.0 2 0
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 4734.13.96 1.52510.841 1.01001020 1.0 0 0
Colin HoldermanMiddle Reliever 4741.31.96 0.96910.046 1.01000018 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

CLE wins 3-2


St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

STL 65-62 (4.39 RPG / 4.31 RA)
4 - 3
CIN 60-66 (4.04 RPG / 4.75 RA)
WINNER: STL wins 4-3 TARGET: STL 4 - 3 CIN (STL) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
STL00000301047
CIN00200100038

STL Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff21
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs2.8
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-21
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

STL Season Quality

Record65-62
Win%0.512
Run Diff10
RD/Game0.079

CIN Season Quality

Record60-66
Win%0.476
Run Diff-89
RD/Game-0.706

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.8572; margin adjustment: -0.36; applied: True

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 118461111 0.241 16450.345 44212 00 0.500 0.238 0.327 0.359 OK
Iván HerreraDH 124465112 0.241 13510.356 44000 00 0.000 0.219 0.314 0.375 OK
Alec Burleson1B 123473137 0.290 21910.353 44000 02 0.000 0.312 0.364 0.555 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 121469136 0.290 22830.349 44110 02 0.250 0.303 0.348 0.490 OK
Nathan ChurchCF 9631775 0.237 9390.281 44100 01 0.250 0.151 0.199 0.230 OK
Masyn WinnSS 116423102 0.241 5510.312 43110 11 0.333 0.269 0.329 0.416 OK
Bryan TorresLF 4210123 0.228 3130.288 44000 00 0.000 0.232 0.299 0.355 OK
Blaze Jordan3B 4816240 0.247 2250.267 44100 01 0.250 0.253 0.281 0.395 OK
Jimmy CrooksC 4111321 0.186 4120.250 33112 00 0.333 0.135 0.190 0.257 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35347 44 17 0.206

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Elly De La CruzSS 106417109 0.261 20570.344 53000 21 0.000 0.200 0.280 0.371 OK
Sal Stewart1B 125476124 0.261 26910.335 55111 01 0.200 0.251 0.311 0.402 OK
Dane MyersCF 7719852 0.263 5200.348 44000 01 0.000 0.252 0.319 0.414 OK
Eugenio Suárez3B 9433570 0.209 18500.287 44100 01 0.250 0.208 0.283 0.403 OK
Tyler StephensonDH 9630675 0.245 12390.329 44211 00 0.500 0.222 0.299 0.396 OK
Michael TogliaRF 7193 0.158 010.238 44200 01 0.500 0.167 0.243 0.286 OK
JJ BledayLF 9634276 0.222 20470.332 44100 01 0.250 0.199 0.300 0.349 OK
Jose TrevinoC 319924 0.242 4120.250 43000 10 0.000 0.190 0.202 0.326 OK
Matt McLain2B 9732863 0.192 11290.289 44111 01 0.250 0.183 0.266 0.356 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38358 33 37 0.229

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Matthew LiberatoreStarter 24115.55.22 1.5249.0116 5.04221585 5.0 5 2
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 5249.83.07 1.1049.653 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 5748.14.12 1.39310.355 1.01001120 1.0 1 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever 5442.14.92 1.63910.750 1.02000119 1.0 1 0
Justin BruihlMiddle Reliever 5550.43.93 1.5877.341 1.00001017 1.0 0 0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chase BurnsStarter 23129.62.50 1.10310.5151 6.04330697 6.0 6 3
Emilio PagánMiddle Reliever 2927.43.94 1.09510.231 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Tejay AntoneMiddle Reliever 4134.44.19 1.2799.938 1.01110120 1.0 1 1
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 6352.63.25 1.46410.662 1.01001020 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

STL wins 4-3


Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays

TOR 62-65 (3.95 RPG / 4.36 RA)
3 - 6
TB 75-50 (4.57 RPG / 4.18 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 6-3 TARGET: TOR 4 - 6 TB (TB) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
TOR00010101037
TB20202000x69

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.9
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff6
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

TOR Season Quality

Record62-65
Win%0.488
Run Diff-52
RD/Game-0.409

TB Season Quality

Record75-50
Win%0.600
Run Diff48
RD/Game0.384

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.5996; margin adjustment: 0.2518; applied: True

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brett BatemanCF 104613 0.283 040.327 55000 04 0.000 0.238 0.272 0.311 OK
Nathan LukesRF 8929778 0.263 6220.317 44100 02 0.250 0.217 0.259 0.297 OK
Alejandro KirkDH 4917248 0.279 6250.349 43211 10 0.667 0.293 0.369 0.456 OK
Kazuma Okamoto1B 121449102 0.227 25720.299 44210 00 0.500 0.221 0.279 0.414 OK
Jesús SánchezLF 8624464 0.262 8330.321 43000 00 0.000 0.239 0.314 0.400 OK
Josh Smith2B 11256 0.240 230.296 43112 00 0.333 0.204 0.275 0.361 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 6520045 0.225 8210.304 43000 11 0.000 0.125 0.205 0.216 OK
Charles McAdoo3B 154411 0.250 270.292 44100 00 0.250 0.253 0.302 0.404 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 11538292 0.241 8480.286 44000 01 0.000 0.242 0.271 0.349 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37337 33 28 0.212

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chandler SimpsonLF 113439136 0.310 0250.335 55000 01 0.000 0.324 0.350 0.380 OK
Junior Caminero3B 124473130 0.275 35790.365 43110 10 0.333 0.242 0.317 0.429 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 121460132 0.287 15760.370 44211 00 0.500 0.263 0.328 0.360 OK
Yandy DíazDH 119470145 0.309 18700.377 43111 10 0.333 0.334 0.385 0.503 OK
Liam HicksC 123710 0.270 290.426 44112 00 0.250 0.263 0.341 0.409 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 10436276 0.210 13390.284 44000 01 0.000 0.227 0.280 0.332 OK
Ryan ViladeRF 6618248 0.264 11360.327 43210 10 0.667 0.209 0.283 0.427 OK
Richie Palacios2B 9226364 0.243 5370.343 44212 00 0.500 0.283 0.373 0.391 OK
Taylor WallsSS 9630367 0.221 2300.307 43000 11 0.000 0.234 0.309 0.326 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37339 66 43 0.273

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Max ScherzerStarter 1039.66.82 1.5157.031 4.18664198 4.1 1 6
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 5859.91.35 1.03511.979 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 5953.61.68 1.2314.929 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Spencer MilesMiddle Reliever 3872.73.34 1.2109.073 1.11000120 1.1 1 0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Drew RasmussenStarter 23128.42.80 0.9199.3133 6.052226109 6.0 6 2
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 5047.61.51 0.90310.455 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 5348.52.23 0.9908.244 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Garrett CleavingerMiddle Reliever 4431.24.62 1.57113.848 0.21000211 0.2 2 0

Game Summary

TB wins 6-3


Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers

WAS 60-67 (5.28 RPG / 5.17 RA)
3 - 4
TEX 62-64 (4.06 RPG / 4.4 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 4-3 TARGET: WAS 3 - 4 TEX (TEX) Confidence: 55.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
WAS10000200036
TEX02002000x47

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak4L

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-10
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

WAS Season Quality

Record60-66
Win%0.476
Run Diff18
RD/Game0.143

TEX Season Quality

Record61-64
Win%0.488
Run Diff-47
RD/Game-0.376

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3999; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
CJ AbramsSS 123465130 0.280 29910.355 44111 01 0.250 0.248 0.308 0.441 OK
Abimelec Ortiz1B 154312 0.279 590.295 44000 00 0.000 0.259 0.280 0.542 OK
Jose F MirandaLF 000 0.000 000.000 44000 00 0.000 0.249 0.315 0.405
Daylen LileRF 125477117 0.245 15650.295 44210 01 0.500 0.249 0.290 0.395 OK
Andrés ChaparroDH 4911226 0.232 7290.328 44112 00 0.250 0.243 0.318 0.510 OK
Keibert RuizC 7926272 0.275 7410.311 44100 01 0.250 0.281 0.318 0.407 OK
Jacob YoungCF 10134185 0.249 10410.305 43000 10 0.000 0.251 0.290 0.381 OK
Jorbit Vivas3B 8622855 0.241 3190.328 33000 02 0.000 0.235 0.324 0.313 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 11035982 0.228 1340.313 33100 01 0.333 0.199 0.282 0.233 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34336 33 16 0.182

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc Pederson1B 11332679 0.242 22460.333 44112 00 0.250 0.215 0.306 0.442 OK
Corey SeagerSS 6524050 0.208 12300.309 44000 01 0.000 0.252 0.339 0.454 OK
Wyatt LangfordDH 7428874 0.257 14330.323 44000 01 0.000 0.258 0.327 0.453 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 120458125 0.273 13480.338 44210 02 0.500 0.252 0.303 0.413 OK
Ezequiel Duran3B 115406107 0.264 13640.318 43000 11 0.000 0.246 0.299 0.392 OK
Evan CarterCF 10630559 0.193 8310.294 33100 01 0.333 0.201 0.278 0.320 OK
Jarred KelenicLF 9164 0.250 020.333 33000 00 0.000 0.241 0.313 0.315 OK
Elias DíazC 4313330 0.226 3150.241 33210 01 0.667 0.183 0.201 0.326 OK
Nicky Lopez2B 6619052 0.274 1210.315 33112 01 0.333 0.157 0.189 0.213 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32317 44 18 0.226

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cade CavalliStarter 26134.13.42 1.26810.1151 6.054416103 6.0 6 4
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 3934.53.39 1.30410.239 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Orlando RibaltaMiddle Reliever 3933.53.76 1.2848.933 1.01000116 1.0 1 0

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kumar RockerStarter 23112.54.64 1.4408.5106 5.03111383 5.0 3 1
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 4353.21.35 0.6959.858 1.12220119 1.1 1 2
Peyton GrayMiddle Reliever 4241.83.88 1.43510.850 1.00000215 1.0 2 0
Robby AhlstromMiddle Reliever 3223.84.92 1.3039.826 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever 96.64.09 1.8189.57 0.21000014 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

TEX wins 4-3