| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ BOS | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 | ARI | ARI | ARI wins 4-3 | 52% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| ATL @ MIN | 4 - 2 | 4 - 2 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 4-2 | 66% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| BAL @ TB | 3 - 4 | 2 - 5 | TB | TB | TB wins 5-2 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| CHW @ CHC | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 | CHC | CHC | CHC wins 3-2 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| DET @ PIT | 4 - 5 | 3 - 5 | PIT | PIT | PIT wins 5-3 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| LAD @ COL | 6 - 4 | 8 - 2 | LAD | LAD | LAD wins 8-2 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| MIA @ PHI | 0 - 1 | 0 - 2 | PHI | PHI | PHI wins 2-0 | 51% | fallback_enhanced |
| OAK @ KC | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 | OAK | OAK | OAK wins 3-2 | 51% | fallback_enhanced |
| SD @ NYM | 3 - 4 | 2 - 5 | NYM | NYM | NYM wins 5-2 | 60% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| STL @ CIN | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 | CIN | CIN | CIN wins 2-1 | 51% | fallback_enhanced |
| STL @ CIN | 3 - 2 | 4 - 0 | STL | STL | STL wins 4-0 | 51% | fallback_enhanced |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
Quality edge: 0.2427; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 121 | 455 | 113 | 0.248 | 18 | 57 | 0.344 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.335 | 0.535 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 120 | 434 | 107 | 0.247 | 9 | 42 | 0.357 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.239 | 0.327 | 0.348 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | DH | 96 | 344 | 106 | 0.308 | 9 | 56 | 0.385 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.200 | 0.317 | 0.386 | 0.493 | OK |
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 117 | 469 | 117 | 0.249 | 21 | 67 | 0.313 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.252 | 0.320 | 0.444 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 118 | 406 | 98 | 0.241 | 20 | 62 | 0.321 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.216 | 0.287 | 0.473 | OK |
| Jordan Lawlar | CF | 11 | 34 | 10 | 0.294 | 1 | 4 | 0.400 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.284 | 0.342 | 0.428 | OK |
| Tim Tawa | 1B | 61 | 188 | 44 | 0.234 | 7 | 29 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.238 | 0.290 | 0.386 | OK |
| James McCann | C | 33 | 110 | 33 | 0.300 | 4 | 21 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.297 | 0.326 | 0.463 | OK |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | LF | 57 | 189 | 52 | 0.275 | 2 | 16 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.262 | 0.325 | 0.366 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nick Sogard | 2B | 28 | 100 | 24 | 0.240 | 0 | 5 | 0.353 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.216 | 0.318 | 0.295 | OK |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | CF | 115 | 458 | 130 | 0.284 | 15 | 61 | 0.322 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.276 | 0.410 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 119 | 451 | 117 | 0.259 | 22 | 65 | 0.337 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.329 | 0.487 | OK |
| Willson Contreras | 1B | 110 | 384 | 106 | 0.276 | 24 | 72 | 0.386 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.316 | 0.423 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | C | 5 | 17 | 1 | 0.059 | 0 | 0 | 0.273 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.193 | 0.293 | 0.326 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 112 | 385 | 94 | 0.244 | 12 | 57 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.307 | 0.399 | OK |
| Andruw Monasterio | SS | 80 | 245 | 65 | 0.265 | 6 | 35 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.249 | 0.312 | 0.376 | OK |
| Mickey Gasper | DH | 34 | 107 | 26 | 0.243 | 0 | 7 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.225 | 0.288 | 0.293 | OK |
| Eli White | LF | 6 | 16 | 4 | 0.250 | 0 | 1 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.244 | 0.284 | 0.379 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Mitch Bratt | Starter | 7 | 33.2 | 3.80 | 1.416 | 6.8 | 25 | 5.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 104 | 5.1 | 6 | 2 |
| Brandyn Garcia | Middle Reliever | 36 | 26.8 | 2.01 | 0.784 | 12.1 | 36 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin Ginkel | Middle Reliever | 50 | 42.9 | 3.36 | 1.235 | 9.0 | 43 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Morillo | Middle Reliever | 48 | 40.4 | 2.90 | 1.114 | 12.3 | 55 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Alec Gamboa | Starter | 9 | 16.3 | 1.66 | 1.166 | 6.6 | 12 | 5.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 5.0 | 6 | 2 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Middle Reliever | 41 | 40.2 | 1.34 | 1.119 | 11.6 | 52 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Erik Miller | Middle Reliever | 5 | 5.1 | 0.00 | 0.980 | 15.9 | 9 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 |
| Tyron Guerrero | Middle Reliever | 30 | 26.1 | 2.41 | 1.073 | 11.7 | 34 | 1.2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
ARI wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
Quality edge: -1.042; margin adjustment: -0.4376; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Drake Baldwin | C | 101 | 390 | 108 | 0.277 | 20 | 62 | 0.363 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.286 | 0.354 | 0.409 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 124 | 479 | 126 | 0.263 | 36 | 77 | 0.338 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.277 | 0.349 | 0.630 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 118 | 449 | 130 | 0.290 | 20 | 68 | 0.316 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.400 | 0.264 | 0.288 | 0.411 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 124 | 472 | 119 | 0.252 | 20 | 64 | 0.309 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.193 | 0.258 | 0.358 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | LF | 117 | 436 | 115 | 0.264 | 10 | 61 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.230 | 0.269 | 0.327 | OK |
| Mike Yastrzemski | DH | 102 | 272 | 62 | 0.228 | 9 | 33 | 0.307 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.300 | 0.419 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 123 | 439 | 98 | 0.223 | 15 | 58 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.245 | 0.298 | 0.436 | OK |
| Jim Jarvis | SS | 35 | 103 | 23 | 0.223 | 1 | 11 | 0.273 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.190 | 0.236 | 0.283 | OK |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | 72 | 270 | 66 | 0.244 | 13 | 32 | 0.350 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.254 | 0.341 | 0.471 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 38 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Byron Buxton | CF | 85 | 343 | 88 | 0.257 | 25 | 45 | 0.316 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.189 | 0.240 | 0.367 | OK |
| Ryan Jeffers | C | 60 | 211 | 60 | 0.284 | 10 | 40 | 0.385 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.180 | 0.292 | 0.317 | OK |
| Josh Bell | DH | 120 | 443 | 112 | 0.253 | 16 | 72 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.255 | 0.311 | 0.399 | OK |
| Royce Lewis | 2B | 90 | 329 | 80 | 0.243 | 13 | 44 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.317 | 0.429 | OK |
| Victor Caratini | 1B | 89 | 282 | 64 | 0.227 | 7 | 38 | 0.315 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.299 | 0.308 | OK |
| Luke Keaschall | RF | 115 | 387 | 103 | 0.266 | 7 | 36 | 0.360 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.269 | 0.354 | 0.401 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | 3B | 116 | 441 | 108 | 0.245 | 18 | 65 | 0.298 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.279 | 0.434 | OK |
| Ryan Kreidler | LF | 70 | 202 | 46 | 0.228 | 5 | 25 | 0.274 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.209 | 0.256 | 0.329 | OK |
| Kaelen Culpepper | SS | 7 | 24 | 6 | 0.250 | 1 | 2 | 0.345 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.310 | 0.359 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Martín Pérez | Starter | 23 | 104.7 | 3.01 | 1.165 | 6.9 | 80 | 5.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 80 | 5.2 | 4 | 2 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Middle Reliever | 45 | 43.8 | 3.29 | 1.256 | 10.1 | 49 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Middle Reliever | 58 | 49.8 | 2.17 | 0.823 | 12.7 | 70 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever | 44 | 48.3 | 2.80 | 1.180 | 12.9 | 69 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bailey Ober | Starter | 18 | 97.6 | 4.70 | 1.250 | 6.2 | 67 | 5.1 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 96 | 5.1 | 5 | 2 |
| Yoendrys Gómez | Middle Reliever | 41 | 31.8 | 2.26 | 1.352 | 10.5 | 37 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Andrew Morris | Middle Reliever | 48 | 51.1 | 3.87 | 1.507 | 9.7 | 55 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeff Hoffman | Middle Reliever | 5 | 5.0 | 3.60 | 1.600 | 10.8 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kody Funderburk | Middle Reliever | 41 | 33.6 | 3.21 | 1.458 | 8.8 | 33 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 |
ATL wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| TB | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 9 |
Quality edge: 0.6412; margin adjustment: 0.2693; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Tyler O'Neill | RF | 76 | 208 | 46 | 0.221 | 10 | 22 | 0.314 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.309 | 0.389 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | DH | 121 | 452 | 121 | 0.268 | 27 | 80 | 0.362 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.305 | 0.392 | 0.553 | OK |
| Jackson Holliday | 2B | 68 | 203 | 49 | 0.241 | 6 | 25 | 0.332 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.317 | 0.361 | OK |
| Coby Mayo | 1B | 92 | 287 | 61 | 0.213 | 15 | 45 | 0.277 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.264 | 0.396 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 120 | 484 | 106 | 0.219 | 19 | 50 | 0.303 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.220 | 0.305 | 0.419 | OK |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 3B | 22 | 72 | 16 | 0.222 | 4 | 16 | 0.269 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.254 | 0.435 | OK |
| Jeremiah Jackson | LF | 73 | 225 | 51 | 0.227 | 6 | 32 | 0.254 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.192 | 0.220 | 0.296 | OK |
| Carlos Narváez | C | 10 | 29 | 3 | 0.103 | 0 | 0 | 0.161 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.142 | 0.195 | 0.229 | OK |
| Christian Franklin | CF | 8 | 18 | 2 | 0.111 | 0 | 0 | 0.273 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.139 | 0.279 | 0.217 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 117 | 463 | 141 | 0.305 | 17 | 69 | 0.372 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.297 | 0.344 | 0.445 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 119 | 450 | 129 | 0.287 | 15 | 75 | 0.372 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.333 | 0.373 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 122 | 464 | 127 | 0.274 | 35 | 79 | 0.365 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.206 | 0.301 | 0.441 | OK |
| Liam Hicks | C | 10 | 30 | 9 | 0.300 | 2 | 9 | 0.475 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.273 | 0.368 | 0.454 | OK |
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 111 | 430 | 133 | 0.309 | 0 | 25 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.337 | 0.364 | 0.397 | OK |
| Ryan Vilade | RF | 64 | 176 | 45 | 0.256 | 10 | 35 | 0.318 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.269 | 0.334 | 0.527 | OK |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 102 | 355 | 74 | 0.208 | 13 | 38 | 0.285 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.217 | 0.275 | 0.334 | OK |
| Richie Palacios | 2B | 90 | 257 | 62 | 0.241 | 5 | 36 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.192 | 0.299 | 0.291 | OK |
| Jorge Mateo | SS | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.250 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.220 | 0.257 | 0.364 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Brandon Young | Starter | 20 | 110.4 | 3.42 | 1.359 | 7.6 | 93 | 5.2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 104 | 5.2 | 8 | 4 |
| Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever | 52 | 34.1 | 2.90 | 1.114 | 10.0 | 38 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Middle Reliever | 43 | 33.6 | 4.02 | 1.518 | 8.3 | 31 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rico Garcia | Middle Reliever | 56 | 45.6 | 3.16 | 0.965 | 10.3 | 52 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Walker | Middle Reliever | 14 | 11.5 | 3.91 | 1.478 | 10.2 | 13 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Shane McClanahan | Starter | 20 | 96.9 | 3.16 | 1.146 | 8.5 | 91 | 5.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 104 | 5.2 | 7 | 1 |
| Bryan Baker | Middle Reliever | 49 | 46.4 | 1.55 | 0.905 | 10.3 | 53 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 |
| Kevin Kelly | Middle Reliever | 52 | 47.5 | 2.27 | 0.968 | 8.1 | 43 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | Middle Reliever | 44 | 31.2 | 4.62 | 1.571 | 13.8 | 48 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
TB wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| CHC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 3 | 4 |
Quality edge: 0.2774; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 117 | 435 | 121 | 0.278 | 12 | 49 | 0.353 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.331 | 0.431 | OK |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1B | 88 | 315 | 74 | 0.235 | 28 | 57 | 0.368 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.228 | 0.355 | 0.549 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 120 | 452 | 108 | 0.239 | 28 | 72 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.238 | 0.326 | 0.576 | OK |
| Randal Grichuk | DH | 69 | 154 | 45 | 0.292 | 9 | 26 | 0.323 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.289 | 0.313 | 0.530 | OK |
| Braden Montgomery | RF | 56 | 202 | 48 | 0.238 | 4 | 28 | 0.329 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.336 | 0.384 | OK |
| Brenton Doyle | CF | 10 | 29 | 7 | 0.241 | 1 | 1 | 0.241 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.159 | 0.214 | 0.265 | OK |
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 101 | 352 | 98 | 0.278 | 8 | 35 | 0.367 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.289 | 0.336 | 0.422 | OK |
| Luisangel Acuña | SS | 70 | 183 | 44 | 0.240 | 1 | 12 | 0.273 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.234 | 0.247 | OK |
| Jake Rogers | C | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.207 | 0.302 | 0.328 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 123 | 467 | 130 | 0.278 | 28 | 75 | 0.376 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.306 | 0.513 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 106 | 402 | 111 | 0.276 | 21 | 73 | 0.366 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.258 | 0.334 | 0.468 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 121 | 461 | 114 | 0.247 | 13 | 61 | 0.354 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.335 | 0.355 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 121 | 478 | 121 | 0.253 | 16 | 61 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.328 | 0.468 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 117 | 432 | 93 | 0.215 | 20 | 51 | 0.321 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.193 | 0.289 | 0.353 | OK |
| Nico Hoerner | SS | 120 | 479 | 125 | 0.261 | 7 | 56 | 0.318 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.268 | 0.320 | 0.365 | OK |
| Pedro Ramirez | 2B | 45 | 124 | 38 | 0.306 | 2 | 15 | 0.356 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.288 | 0.336 | 0.450 | OK |
| Michael Conforto | DH | 79 | 188 | 43 | 0.229 | 10 | 29 | 0.313 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.292 | 0.414 | OK |
| Miguel Amaya | C | 56 | 174 | 42 | 0.241 | 5 | 22 | 0.330 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.241 | 0.305 | 0.437 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 31 | 28 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0.143 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Luis Castillo | Starter | 2 | 11.0 | 4.09 | 0.909 | 12.3 | 15 | 5.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 91 | 5.1 | 6 | 3 |
| Grant Taylor | Middle Reliever | 41 | 51.9 | 2.60 | 1.118 | 13.2 | 76 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Newcomb | Middle Reliever | 43 | 55.0 | 3.11 | 1.291 | 9.8 | 60 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | Middle Reliever | 34 | 27.1 | 3.65 | 1.661 | 12.3 | 37 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Shota Imanaga | Starter | 24 | 134.3 | 3.82 | 1.124 | 8.7 | 130 | 5.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 94 | 5.2 | 6 | 2 |
| Jacob Webb | Middle Reliever | 54 | 49.1 | 2.57 | 1.283 | 11.2 | 61 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever | 5 | 3.4 | 7.94 | 2.353 | 15.9 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Trent Thornton | Middle Reliever | 36 | 33.9 | 2.65 | 1.209 | 5.6 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
CHC wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| PIT | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.3655; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Gleyber Torres | DH | 67 | 251 | 68 | 0.271 | 8 | 33 | 0.379 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.287 | 0.380 | 0.430 | OK |
| Kevin McGonigle | 3B | 119 | 454 | 128 | 0.282 | 12 | 48 | 0.388 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.269 | 0.376 | 0.395 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | C | 114 | 437 | 114 | 0.261 | 26 | 82 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.201 | 0.242 | 0.372 | OK |
| Colt Keith | 1B | 111 | 322 | 86 | 0.267 | 9 | 31 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.270 | 0.306 | 0.443 | OK |
| Zach McKinstry | RF | 95 | 293 | 64 | 0.218 | 4 | 24 | 0.298 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.291 | 0.305 | OK |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 2B | 73 | 204 | 54 | 0.265 | 6 | 28 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.145 | 0.177 | 0.260 | OK |
| Brett Callahan | LF | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.218 | 0.230 | 1.293 | OK |
| Max Clark | CF | 15 | 58 | 15 | 0.259 | 1 | 8 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.229 | 0.268 | 0.363 | OK |
| Javier Báez | SS | 37 | 130 | 35 | 0.269 | 2 | 14 | 0.294 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.269 | 0.330 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jared Triolo | SS | 80 | 245 | 60 | 0.245 | 2 | 23 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.238 | 0.304 | 0.344 | OK |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | RF | 53 | 172 | 44 | 0.256 | 11 | 33 | 0.373 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.376 | 0.508 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | 123 | 450 | 120 | 0.267 | 15 | 65 | 0.378 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.348 | 0.385 | OK |
| Nick Gonzales | 2B | 114 | 435 | 132 | 0.303 | 4 | 51 | 0.357 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.293 | 0.338 | 0.374 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | DH | 114 | 452 | 113 | 0.250 | 26 | 79 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.247 | 0.307 | 0.467 | OK |
| Rafael Flores Jr. | 1B | 13 | 40 | 12 | 0.300 | 4 | 10 | 0.391 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.291 | 0.376 | 0.596 | OK |
| Jake Mangum | CF | 92 | 332 | 101 | 0.304 | 4 | 28 | 0.351 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.290 | 0.321 | 0.399 | OK |
| Nick Yorke | 3B | 25 | 80 | 17 | 0.212 | 1 | 9 | 0.273 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.201 | 0.243 | 0.293 | OK |
| Henry Davis | C | 70 | 217 | 36 | 0.166 | 8 | 31 | 0.250 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.151 | 0.215 | 0.240 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 31 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Framber Valdez | Starter | 24 | 130.9 | 4.33 | 1.413 | 7.3 | 106 | 5.1 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 93 | 5.1 | 8 | 4 |
| Kenley Jansen | Middle Reliever | 35 | 30.8 | 3.51 | 1.234 | 10.8 | 37 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Holton | Middle Reliever | 53 | 48.9 | 3.68 | 1.493 | 8.3 | 45 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever | 49 | 43.9 | 3.08 | 1.595 | 7.8 | 38 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Waguespack | Middle Reliever | 20 | 22.8 | 1.97 | 0.965 | 6.3 | 16 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Carmen Mlodzinski | Starter | 27 | 96.4 | 3.92 | 1.452 | 7.3 | 78 | 4.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 74 | 4.1 | 6 | 3 |
| Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 3 | 3.0 | 9.00 | 2.000 | 9.0 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mason Montgomery | Middle Reliever | 49 | 41.1 | 3.72 | 1.290 | 17.1 | 78 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever | 51 | 48.4 | 3.35 | 1.116 | 11.3 | 61 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camilo Doval | Middle Reliever | 7 | 7.0 | 2.57 | 1.571 | 10.3 | 8 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
PIT wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 |
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
Quality edge: -1.4906; margin adjustment: -0.6261; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Andy Pages | CF | 122 | 474 | 128 | 0.270 | 21 | 77 | 0.335 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.280 | 0.340 | 0.469 | OK |
| Mookie Betts | SS | 86 | 336 | 80 | 0.238 | 15 | 40 | 0.288 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.267 | 0.316 | 0.473 | OK |
| Tommy Edman | 2B | 45 | 158 | 41 | 0.259 | 4 | 21 | 0.324 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.265 | 0.316 | 0.412 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 120 | 452 | 135 | 0.299 | 15 | 55 | 0.375 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.298 | 0.377 | 0.441 | OK |
| Hunter Feduccia | C | 9 | 22 | 6 | 0.273 | 1 | 1 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.297 | 0.390 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 113 | 373 | 92 | 0.247 | 24 | 60 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.334 | 0.504 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 114 | 408 | 95 | 0.233 | 11 | 54 | 0.324 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.314 | 0.361 | OK |
| Teoscar Hernández | LF | 88 | 308 | 77 | 0.250 | 11 | 41 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.314 | 0.395 | OK |
| Shohei Ohtani | TWP | 114 | 438 | 126 | 0.288 | 27 | 73 | 0.388 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.288 | 0.378 | 0.559 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 37 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Cole Carrigg | OF | 53 | 185 | 54 | 0.292 | 5 | 33 | 0.378 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.276 | 0.353 | 0.447 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 111 | 375 | 79 | 0.211 | 9 | 37 | 0.257 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.227 | 0.275 | 0.350 | OK |
| Connor Norby | 1B | 5 | 12 | 2 | 0.167 | 0 | 0 | 0.375 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.183 | 0.286 | 0.292 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 117 | 423 | 124 | 0.293 | 13 | 58 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.274 | 0.343 | 0.406 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | C | 111 | 414 | 104 | 0.251 | 34 | 69 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.308 | 0.526 | OK |
| Willi Castro | 2B | 105 | 378 | 99 | 0.262 | 13 | 50 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.314 | 0.405 | OK |
| Zac Veen | LF | 4 | 12 | 3 | 0.250 | 2 | 5 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.294 | 0.774 | OK |
| Jake McCarthy | LF | 103 | 392 | 116 | 0.296 | 13 | 66 | 0.333 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.277 | 0.306 | 0.456 | OK |
| Mickey Moniak | LF | 84 | 292 | 77 | 0.264 | 19 | 57 | 0.302 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.284 | 0.468 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Blake Snell | Starter | 2 | 9.0 | 5.00 | 1.333 | 15.0 | 15 | 4.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 80 | 4.1 | 2 | 2 |
| Edwin Díaz | Middle Reliever | 14 | 11.5 | 9.39 | 2.348 | 14.9 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tanner Scott | Middle Reliever | 53 | 44.8 | 2.41 | 1.004 | 12.5 | 62 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever | 55 | 33.0 | 3.82 | 1.606 | 15.3 | 56 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Edgardo Henriquez | Middle Reliever | 49 | 42.7 | 3.58 | 1.241 | 11.0 | 52 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Starter | 21 | 110.4 | 4.57 | 1.286 | 5.4 | 66 | 5.2 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 92 | 5.2 | 7 | 5 |
| Jordan Romano | Middle Reliever | 12 | 11.2 | 3.21 | 1.607 | 11.2 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brennan Bernardino | Middle Reliever | 58 | 41.1 | 3.50 | 1.509 | 8.1 | 37 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Herget | Middle Reliever | 36 | 30.8 | 7.01 | 1.851 | 10.2 | 35 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 48 | 44.1 | 6.33 | 1.859 | 10.2 | 50 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Zach Agnos | Middle Reliever | 31 | 68.1 | 5.81 | 1.512 | 5.9 | 45 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Frasso | Reliever | 4 | 4.0 | 6.75 | 1.750 | 11.2 | 5 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
LAD wins 8-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 2 | 8 |
Quality edge: -; margin adjustment: -; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Esteury Ruiz | CF | 61 | 140 | 35 | 0.250 | 6 | 11 | 0.329 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.297 | 0.451 | OK |
| Heriberto Hernández | LF | 91 | 303 | 70 | 0.231 | 18 | 50 | 0.301 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.235 | 0.306 | 0.495 | OK |
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 123 | 454 | 129 | 0.284 | 6 | 46 | 0.365 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.346 | 0.343 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 121 | 487 | 150 | 0.308 | 9 | 53 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.265 | 0.341 | OK |
| Javier Sanoja | 3B | 96 | 315 | 85 | 0.270 | 5 | 45 | 0.304 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.298 | 0.432 | OK |
| Leo Jiménez | 1B | 52 | 145 | 30 | 0.207 | 2 | 14 | 0.284 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.199 | 0.250 | 0.264 | OK |
| Griffin Conine | RF | 55 | 161 | 44 | 0.273 | 13 | 28 | 0.364 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.223 | 0.318 | 0.458 | OK |
| Brian Navarreto | C | 11 | 23 | 2 | 0.087 | 0 | 0 | 0.192 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.151 | 0.188 | 0.254 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 117 | 401 | 84 | 0.209 | 7 | 29 | 0.325 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.320 | 0.343 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 117 | 439 | 108 | 0.246 | 36 | 71 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.346 | 0.514 | OK |
| Trea Turner | SS | 117 | 489 | 122 | 0.249 | 17 | 47 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.224 | 0.280 | 0.345 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | RF | 123 | 434 | 111 | 0.256 | 25 | 72 | 0.376 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.262 | 0.403 | 0.476 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 12 | 53 | 13 | 0.245 | 1 | 8 | 0.268 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.265 | 0.299 | 0.362 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 1B | 118 | 443 | 107 | 0.242 | 14 | 67 | 0.300 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.278 | 0.329 | 0.443 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 3B | 118 | 411 | 109 | 0.265 | 9 | 56 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.269 | 0.350 | 0.419 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | LF | 117 | 430 | 118 | 0.274 | 17 | 54 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.230 | 0.295 | 0.383 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 90 | 311 | 67 | 0.215 | 8 | 40 | 0.284 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.182 | 0.228 | 0.267 | OK |
| Justin Crawford | CF | 110 | 332 | 86 | 0.259 | 2 | 29 | 0.307 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.300 | 0.355 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Janson Junk | Starter | 17 | 85.8 | 4.51 | 1.352 | 6.7 | 64 | 5.0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 92 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 |
| Pete Fairbanks | Middle Reliever | 41 | 36.7 | 6.13 | 1.335 | 13.2 | 54 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Calvin Faucher | Middle Reliever | 52 | 45.7 | 4.73 | 1.619 | 11.6 | 59 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cristopher Sánchez | Starter | 25 | 153.8 | 2.57 | 1.209 | 10.6 | 181 | 6.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 104 | 6.0 | 8 | 0 |
| Jhoan Duran | Middle Reliever | 45 | 42.4 | 1.27 | 0.967 | 13.2 | 62 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Bowlan | Middle Reliever | 47 | 40.7 | 2.87 | 1.032 | 12.2 | 55 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever | 52 | 43.2 | 4.17 | 1.412 | 10.8 | 52 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever | 5 | 5.0 | 3.60 | 1.000 | 12.6 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
PHI wins 2-0
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
Quality edge: -; margin adjustment: -; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeff McNeil | 1B | 106 | 336 | 87 | 0.259 | 5 | 39 | 0.311 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.282 | 0.326 | 0.396 | OK |
| Jacob Wilson | SS | 79 | 320 | 85 | 0.266 | 7 | 37 | 0.296 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.245 | 0.326 | OK |
| Lawrence Butler | RF | 109 | 331 | 69 | 0.208 | 11 | 36 | 0.293 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.295 | 0.511 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | DH | 69 | 250 | 69 | 0.276 | 14 | 34 | 0.332 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.273 | 0.324 | 0.506 | OK |
| Carlos Cortes | LF | 88 | 246 | 64 | 0.260 | 7 | 35 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.256 | 0.329 | 0.413 | OK |
| Henry Bolte | CF | 77 | 266 | 71 | 0.267 | 6 | 25 | 0.334 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.323 | 0.401 | OK |
| Donovan Walton | 2B | 21 | 43 | 8 | 0.186 | 0 | 4 | 0.375 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.151 | 0.232 | 0.268 | OK |
| Tommy White | 3B | 26 | 98 | 26 | 0.265 | 1 | 2 | 0.287 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 0.292 | 0.363 | OK |
| Brian Serven | C | 10 | 31 | 6 | 0.194 | 2 | 5 | 0.219 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.206 | 0.233 | 0.366 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 35 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0.143 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carter Jensen | C | 114 | 405 | 89 | 0.220 | 16 | 56 | 0.299 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.177 | 0.252 | 0.321 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 105 | 412 | 116 | 0.282 | 14 | 42 | 0.351 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.272 | 0.337 | 0.460 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | RF | 115 | 413 | 111 | 0.269 | 22 | 58 | 0.321 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.283 | 0.325 | 0.521 | OK |
| Maikel Garcia | 3B | 67 | 264 | 70 | 0.265 | 3 | 30 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.296 | 0.350 | OK |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | 78 | 288 | 67 | 0.233 | 6 | 33 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.255 | 0.334 | 0.361 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | DH | 114 | 439 | 95 | 0.216 | 16 | 52 | 0.263 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.213 | 0.240 | 0.328 | OK |
| Michael Massey | 2B | 101 | 321 | 87 | 0.271 | 11 | 42 | 0.301 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.310 | 0.336 | 0.527 | OK |
| Isaac Collins | LF | 109 | 350 | 80 | 0.229 | 6 | 35 | 0.327 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.170 | 0.257 | 0.278 | OK |
| Kyle Isbel | CF | 64 | 193 | 44 | 0.228 | 4 | 15 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.212 | 0.252 | 0.330 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 37 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0.189 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Mason Barnett | Starter | 17 | 36.6 | 6.39 | 1.503 | 8.9 | 36 | 4.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 72 | 4.0 | 9 | 2 |
| Hogan Harris | Middle Reliever | 57 | 44.2 | 4.28 | 1.855 | 14.7 | 72 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Elvis Alvarado | Middle Reliever | 38 | 32.6 | 5.52 | 1.472 | 13.3 | 48 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luis Medina | Middle Reliever | 40 | 50.8 | 3.54 | 1.457 | 11.9 | 67 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Drew Rom | Reliever | 3 | 1.3 | 0.00 | 0.769 | 20.8 | 3 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael Wacha | Starter | 24 | 148.1 | 3.52 | 1.168 | 7.1 | 117 | 6.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 104 | 6.1 | 6 | 2 |
| Steven Cruz | Middle Reliever | 43 | 40.9 | 4.62 | 1.345 | 11.2 | 51 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Nate Pearson | Middle Reliever | 9 | 8.2 | 1.10 | 0.854 | 9.9 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| John Schreiber | Middle Reliever | 49 | 37.7 | 4.30 | 1.618 | 7.9 | 33 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
OAK wins 3-2 (Extra Innings - 10)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| NYM | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 11 |
Quality edge: -0.3856; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF | 121 | 478 | 134 | 0.280 | 13 | 55 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.275 | 0.340 | 0.494 | OK |
| Jake Cronenworth | 2B | 72 | 248 | 55 | 0.222 | 4 | 20 | 0.306 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.290 | 0.332 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 122 | 454 | 96 | 0.211 | 23 | 70 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.202 | 0.276 | 0.324 | OK |
| Ty France | 1B | 93 | 316 | 92 | 0.291 | 17 | 51 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.275 | 0.313 | 0.438 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 121 | 471 | 115 | 0.244 | 19 | 63 | 0.295 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.303 | 0.439 | OK |
| Luis Campusano | C | 44 | 128 | 40 | 0.312 | 5 | 23 | 0.405 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.296 | 0.376 | 0.496 | OK |
| Gavin Sheets | DH | 115 | 341 | 72 | 0.211 | 16 | 45 | 0.312 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.206 | 0.300 | 0.400 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 118 | 404 | 90 | 0.223 | 11 | 46 | 0.321 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.213 | 0.325 | 0.365 | OK |
| Luis Rengifo | LF | 27 | 93 | 30 | 0.323 | 4 | 13 | 0.411 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.269 | 0.340 | 0.416 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 31 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0.161 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| A.J. Ewing | LF | 83 | 301 | 76 | 0.252 | 7 | 28 | 0.327 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.198 | 0.276 | 0.302 | OK |
| Francisco Lindor | SS | 67 | 261 | 64 | 0.245 | 12 | 32 | 0.334 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.352 | 0.470 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | 3B | 121 | 485 | 129 | 0.266 | 12 | 62 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.318 | 0.365 | 0.471 | OK |
| Carson Benge | RF | 116 | 443 | 120 | 0.271 | 14 | 49 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.276 | 0.334 | 0.431 | OK |
| Luis Robert Jr. | CF | 44 | 157 | 34 | 0.217 | 6 | 17 | 0.287 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.222 | 0.281 | 0.359 | OK |
| Jared Young | 1B | 70 | 216 | 58 | 0.269 | 7 | 26 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.305 | 0.350 | 0.503 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 103 | 365 | 78 | 0.214 | 14 | 41 | 0.274 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.188 | 0.248 | 0.324 | OK |
| Jorge Polanco | DH | 36 | 132 | 19 | 0.144 | 2 | 6 | 0.199 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.150 | 0.200 | 0.243 | OK |
| Francisco Alvarez | C | 83 | 274 | 66 | 0.241 | 12 | 29 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.218 | 0.298 | 0.381 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 35 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 0.314 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Walker Buehler | Starter | 24 | 110.6 | 5.05 | 1.474 | 8.1 | 100 | 5.0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 92 | 5.0 | 7 | 5 |
| Mason Miller | Middle Reliever | 49 | 48.3 | 0.93 | 0.890 | 17.3 | 93 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Middle Reliever | 57 | 58.4 | 3.08 | 1.216 | 12.3 | 80 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Estrada | Middle Reliever | 31 | 25.6 | 3.87 | 1.250 | 13.0 | 37 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever | 51 | 48.3 | 2.42 | 1.222 | 11.0 | 59 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Yuki Matsui | Middle Reliever | 36 | 41.7 | 2.59 | 1.319 | 10.8 | 50 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Nolan McLean | Starter | 24 | 134.8 | 3.47 | 1.150 | 10.6 | 159 | 6.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 100 | 6.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Kodai Senga | Middle Reliever | 18 | 47.1 | 8.22 | 1.741 | 11.5 | 60 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Daniel Duarte | Middle Reliever | 14 | 17.7 | 1.02 | 0.734 | 7.6 | 15 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Lavender | Middle Reliever | 5 | 3.5 | 0.00 | 0.857 | 15.4 | 6 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
NYM wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | x | 2 | 6 |
Quality edge: -; margin adjustment: -; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Joshua Baez | LF | 2 | 9 | 3 | 0.333 | 3 | 5 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.326 | 0.334 | 1.206 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | DH | 121 | 455 | 111 | 0.244 | 12 | 50 | 0.356 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.259 | 0.334 | 0.388 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 118 | 456 | 130 | 0.285 | 22 | 83 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.274 | 0.328 | 0.491 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 120 | 460 | 133 | 0.289 | 21 | 89 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.310 | 0.365 | 0.600 | OK |
| José Fermín | LF | 81 | 224 | 55 | 0.246 | 5 | 27 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.330 | 0.357 | OK |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 113 | 411 | 97 | 0.236 | 4 | 49 | 0.308 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.208 | 0.273 | 0.281 | OK |
| Blaze Jordan | 3B | 45 | 151 | 38 | 0.252 | 2 | 24 | 0.269 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.261 | 0.283 | 0.397 | OK |
| Everson Pereira | CF | 4 | 9 | 3 | 0.333 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.299 | 0.496 | OK |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 55 | 162 | 34 | 0.210 | 4 | 11 | 0.253 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.197 | 0.243 | 0.301 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Elly De La Cruz | SS | 103 | 405 | 107 | 0.264 | 20 | 56 | 0.347 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.188 | 0.278 | 0.368 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 1B | 122 | 464 | 121 | 0.261 | 26 | 91 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.260 | 0.325 | 0.444 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | 93 | 299 | 75 | 0.251 | 12 | 39 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.176 | 0.256 | 0.380 | OK |
| Eugenio Suárez | DH | 91 | 325 | 67 | 0.206 | 18 | 49 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.276 | 0.432 | OK |
| Dane Myers | CF | 74 | 190 | 48 | 0.253 | 3 | 18 | 0.342 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.295 | 0.290 | OK |
| Michael Toglia | LF | 5 | 12 | 2 | 0.167 | 0 | 0 | 0.231 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.177 | 0.238 | 0.276 | OK |
| Matt McLain | 2B | 94 | 319 | 62 | 0.194 | 11 | 29 | 0.291 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.188 | 0.276 | 0.368 | OK |
| Noelvi Marte | RF | 57 | 187 | 36 | 0.193 | 6 | 15 | 0.228 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.116 | 0.153 | 0.197 | OK |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 3B | 58 | 176 | 26 | 0.148 | 5 | 8 | 0.202 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.138 | 0.186 | 0.254 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 31 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0.200 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Quinn Mathews | Starter | 1 | 5.0 | 3.60 | 1.800 | 5.4 | 3 | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 97 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 |
| Riley O'Brien | Middle Reliever | 50 | 47.8 | 3.20 | 1.151 | 9.2 | 49 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Middle Reliever | 55 | 46.1 | 4.30 | 1.453 | 10.3 | 53 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever | 52 | 40.1 | 5.16 | 1.696 | 11.0 | 49 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kent Emanuel | Starter | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 3.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 63 | 3.0 | 5 | 1 |
| Emilio Pagán | Middle Reliever | 28 | 26.4 | 4.09 | 1.098 | 9.9 | 29 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Tejay Antone | Middle Reliever | 41 | 34.4 | 4.19 | 1.279 | 9.9 | 38 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Burke | Middle Reliever | 62 | 51.5 | 3.15 | 1.437 | 10.3 | 59 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pierce Johnson | Middle Reliever | 41 | 28.1 | 5.77 | 1.601 | 10.2 | 32 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
CIN wins 2-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Quality edge: -; margin adjustment: -; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Joshua Baez | LF | 2 | 9 | 3 | 0.333 | 3 | 5 | 0.333 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.326 | 0.334 | 1.207 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | DH | 121 | 455 | 111 | 0.244 | 12 | 50 | 0.356 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.259 | 0.335 | 0.388 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 118 | 456 | 130 | 0.285 | 22 | 83 | 0.346 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.274 | 0.328 | 0.491 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 120 | 460 | 133 | 0.289 | 21 | 89 | 0.354 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.310 | 0.365 | 0.600 | OK |
| José Fermín | LF | 81 | 224 | 55 | 0.246 | 5 | 27 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.330 | 0.357 | OK |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 113 | 411 | 97 | 0.236 | 4 | 49 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.208 | 0.273 | 0.282 | OK |
| Blaze Jordan | 3B | 45 | 151 | 38 | 0.252 | 2 | 24 | 0.269 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.261 | 0.284 | 0.398 | OK |
| Everson Pereira | CF | 4 | 9 | 3 | 0.333 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.299 | 0.496 | OK |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 55 | 162 | 34 | 0.210 | 4 | 11 | 0.253 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 0.243 | 0.302 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 38 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Elly De La Cruz | SS | 103 | 405 | 107 | 0.264 | 20 | 56 | 0.347 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.188 | 0.278 | 0.368 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 1B | 122 | 464 | 121 | 0.261 | 26 | 91 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.260 | 0.325 | 0.444 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | 93 | 299 | 75 | 0.251 | 12 | 39 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.176 | 0.256 | 0.380 | OK |
| Eugenio Suárez | DH | 91 | 325 | 67 | 0.206 | 18 | 49 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.276 | 0.432 | OK |
| Dane Myers | CF | 74 | 190 | 48 | 0.253 | 3 | 18 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.295 | 0.290 | OK |
| Michael Toglia | LF | 5 | 12 | 2 | 0.167 | 0 | 0 | 0.231 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.177 | 0.238 | 0.276 | OK |
| Matt McLain | 2B | 94 | 319 | 62 | 0.194 | 11 | 29 | 0.291 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.188 | 0.276 | 0.368 | OK |
| Noelvi Marte | RF | 57 | 187 | 36 | 0.193 | 6 | 15 | 0.228 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.116 | 0.153 | 0.197 | OK |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 3B | 58 | 176 | 26 | 0.148 | 5 | 8 | 0.202 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.138 | 0.186 | 0.254 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Andre Pallante | Starter | 23 | 127.2 | 3.54 | 1.242 | 6.5 | 92 | 6.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 94 | 6.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Riley O'Brien | Middle Reliever | 50 | 47.8 | 3.20 | 1.151 | 9.2 | 49 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Middle Reliever | 55 | 46.1 | 4.30 | 1.453 | 10.3 | 53 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever | 52 | 40.1 | 5.16 | 1.696 | 11.0 | 49 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Rhett Lowder | Starter | 21 | 91.3 | 5.32 | 1.533 | 7.6 | 77 | 4.2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 99 | 4.2 | 6 | 4 |
| Emilio Pagán | Middle Reliever | 28 | 26.4 | 4.09 | 1.098 | 9.9 | 29 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tejay Antone | Middle Reliever | 41 | 34.4 | 4.19 | 1.279 | 9.9 | 38 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brock Burke | Middle Reliever | 62 | 51.5 | 3.15 | 1.437 | 10.3 | 59 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pierce Johnson | Middle Reliever | 41 | 28.1 | 5.77 | 1.601 | 10.2 | 32 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
STL wins 4-0