MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

August 17, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (11 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
ARI @ BOS4 - 34 - 3ARIARIARI wins 4-352%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
ATL @ MIN4 - 24 - 2ATLATLATL wins 4-266%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BAL @ TB3 - 42 - 5TBTBTB wins 5-251%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHW @ CHC2 - 32 - 3CHCCHCCHC wins 3-251%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
DET @ PIT4 - 53 - 5PITPITPIT wins 5-354%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ COL6 - 48 - 2LADLADLAD wins 8-251%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIA @ PHI0 - 10 - 2PHIPHIPHI wins 2-051%fallback_enhanced
OAK @ KC3 - 23 - 2OAKOAKOAK wins 3-251%fallback_enhanced
SD @ NYM3 - 42 - 5NYMNYMNYM wins 5-260%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
STL @ CIN1 - 21 - 2CINCINCIN wins 2-151%fallback_enhanced
STL @ CIN3 - 24 - 0STLSTLSTL wins 4-051%fallback_enhanced
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox

ARI 66-59 (4.54 RPG / 4.39 RA)
4 - 3
BOS 66-58 (4.43 RPG / 3.77 RA)
WINNER: ARI wins 4-3 TARGET: ARI 4 - 3 BOS (ARI) Confidence: 52.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
ARI00000002248
BOS00000200138

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

ARI Season Quality

Record66-59
Win%0.528
Run Diff18
RD/Game0.144

BOS Season Quality

Record66-58
Win%0.532
Run Diff81
RD/Game0.653

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2427; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Corbin CarrollRF 121455113 0.248 18570.344 54000 13 0.000 0.256 0.335 0.535 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 120434107 0.247 9420.357 54110 10 0.250 0.239 0.327 0.348 OK
Gabriel MorenoDH 96344106 0.308 9560.385 55100 03 0.200 0.317 0.386 0.493 OK
Ketel Marte2B 117469117 0.249 21670.313 55112 02 0.200 0.252 0.320 0.444 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 11840698 0.241 20620.321 42210 20 1.000 0.216 0.287 0.473 OK
Jordan LawlarCF 113410 0.294 140.400 43000 12 0.000 0.284 0.342 0.428 OK
Tim Tawa1B 6118844 0.234 7290.283 44100 00 0.250 0.238 0.290 0.386 OK
James McCannC 3311033 0.300 4210.330 44112 00 0.250 0.297 0.326 0.463 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtLF 5718952 0.275 2160.332 44100 00 0.250 0.262 0.325 0.366 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40358 44 510 0.229

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Sogard2B 2810024 0.240 050.353 55111 02 0.200 0.216 0.318 0.295 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 115458130 0.284 15610.322 55000 02 0.000 0.255 0.276 0.410 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 119451117 0.259 22650.337 42000 21 0.000 0.252 0.329 0.487 OK
Willson Contreras1B 110384106 0.276 24720.386 43000 10 0.000 0.223 0.316 0.423 OK
Adley RutschmanC 5171 0.059 000.273 44211 00 0.500 0.193 0.293 0.326 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 11238594 0.244 12570.313 44000 00 0.000 0.250 0.307 0.399 OK
Andruw MonasterioSS 8024565 0.265 6350.325 44211 01 0.500 0.249 0.312 0.376 OK
Mickey GasperDH 3410726 0.243 070.305 44100 02 0.250 0.225 0.288 0.293 OK
Eli WhiteLF 6164 0.250 010.294 44200 00 0.500 0.244 0.284 0.379 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38358 33 38 0.229

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Mitch BrattStarter 733.23.80 1.4166.825 5.152236104 5.1 6 2
Brandyn GarciaMiddle Reliever 3626.82.01 0.78412.136 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever 5042.93.36 1.2359.043 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 4840.42.90 1.11412.355 1.12110123 1.1 1 1

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Alec GamboaStarter 916.31.66 1.1666.612 5.01223690 5.0 6 2
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 4140.21.34 1.11911.652 1.11001024 1.1 0 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 55.10.00 0.98015.99 1.03220322 1.0 3 2
Tyron GuerreroMiddle Reliever 3026.12.41 1.07311.734 1.23001144 1.2 1 0

Game Summary

ARI wins 4-3


Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins

ATL 74-51 (4.81 RPG / 3.91 RA)
4 - 2
MIN 60-65 (4.62 RPG / 5.01 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 4-2 TARGET: ATL 4 - 2 MIN (ATL) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
ATL000021001411
MIN20000000024

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed5.5
Run Diff-12
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak3L

ATL Season Quality

Record74-51
Win%0.592
Run Diff112
RD/Game0.896

MIN Season Quality

Record60-65
Win%0.480
Run Diff-48
RD/Game-0.384

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.042; margin adjustment: -0.4376; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Drake BaldwinC 101390108 0.277 20620.363 54211 11 0.500 0.286 0.354 0.409 OK
Matt Olson1B 124479126 0.263 36770.338 55211 02 0.400 0.277 0.349 0.630 OK
Michael Harris IICF 118449130 0.290 20680.316 55211 03 0.400 0.264 0.288 0.411 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 124472119 0.252 20640.309 55000 01 0.000 0.193 0.258 0.358 OK
Mauricio DubónLF 117436115 0.264 10610.310 44111 01 0.250 0.230 0.269 0.327 OK
Mike YastrzemskiDH 10227262 0.228 9330.307 43000 10 0.000 0.227 0.300 0.419 OK
Austin Riley3B 12343998 0.223 15580.297 44100 01 0.250 0.245 0.298 0.436 OK
Jim JarvisSS 3510323 0.223 1110.273 44100 02 0.250 0.190 0.236 0.283 OK
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 7227066 0.244 13320.350 44200 01 0.500 0.254 0.341 0.471 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403811 44 212 0.289

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonCF 8534388 0.257 25450.316 43100 11 0.333 0.189 0.240 0.367 OK
Ryan JeffersC 6021160 0.284 10400.385 44000 00 0.000 0.180 0.292 0.317 OK
Josh BellDH 120443112 0.253 16720.315 44112 00 0.250 0.255 0.311 0.399 OK
Royce Lewis2B 9032980 0.243 13440.317 44000 01 0.000 0.249 0.317 0.429 OK
Victor Caratini1B 8928264 0.227 7380.315 43000 11 0.000 0.218 0.299 0.308 OK
Luke KeaschallRF 115387103 0.266 7360.360 44210 00 0.500 0.269 0.354 0.401 OK
Brooks Lee3B 116441108 0.245 18650.298 43000 01 0.000 0.237 0.279 0.434 OK
Ryan KreidlerLF 7020246 0.228 5250.274 33000 01 0.000 0.209 0.256 0.329 OK
Kaelen CulpepperSS 7246 0.250 120.345 33000 00 0.000 0.257 0.310 0.359 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34314 22 25 0.129

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Martín PérezStarter 23104.73.01 1.1656.980 5.23220480 5.2 4 2
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 4543.83.29 1.25610.149 1.00001018 1.0 0 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 5849.82.17 0.82312.770 1.10001019 1.1 0 0
Didier FuentesMiddle Reliever 4448.32.80 1.18012.969 1.01000118 1.0 1 0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bailey OberStarter 1897.64.70 1.2506.267 5.17222596 5.1 5 2
Yoendrys GómezMiddle Reliever 4131.82.26 1.35210.537 1.0211029 1.0 2 1
Andrew MorrisMiddle Reliever 4851.13.87 1.5079.755 1.00000216 1.0 2 0
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 55.03.60 1.60010.86 1.00000118 1.0 1 0
Kody FunderburkMiddle Reliever 4133.63.21 1.4588.833 0.22110216 0.2 2 1

Game Summary

ATL wins 4-2


Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays

BAL 61-63 (4.54 RPG / 4.75 RA)
2 - 5
TB 74-49 (4.54 RPG / 4.12 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 5-2 TARGET: BAL 3 - 4 TB (TB) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
BAL00010010026
TB03020000x59

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3W

TB Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff15
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

BAL Season Quality

Record61-63
Win%0.492
Run Diff-26
RD/Game-0.210

TB Season Quality

Record74-49
Win%0.602
Run Diff52
RD/Game0.423

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6412; margin adjustment: 0.2693; applied: True

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Tyler O'NeillRF 7620846 0.221 10220.314 54100 10 0.250 0.233 0.309 0.389 OK
Pete AlonsoDH 121452121 0.268 27800.362 44100 02 0.250 0.305 0.392 0.553 OK
Jackson Holliday2B 6820349 0.241 6250.332 43000 11 0.000 0.235 0.317 0.361 OK
Coby Mayo1B 9228761 0.213 15450.277 43000 11 0.000 0.203 0.264 0.396 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 120484106 0.219 19500.303 44111 02 0.250 0.220 0.305 0.419 OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B 227216 0.222 4160.269 44000 01 0.000 0.221 0.254 0.435 OK
Jeremiah JacksonLF 7322551 0.227 6320.254 44211 02 0.500 0.192 0.220 0.296 OK
Carlos NarváezC 10293 0.103 000.161 43000 11 0.000 0.142 0.195 0.229 OK
Christian FranklinCF 8182 0.111 000.273 44100 01 0.250 0.139 0.279 0.217 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37336 22 411 0.182

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 117463141 0.305 17690.372 44112 01 0.250 0.297 0.344 0.445 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 119450129 0.287 15750.372 44000 02 0.000 0.263 0.333 0.373 OK
Junior Caminero3B 122464127 0.274 35790.365 44210 01 0.500 0.206 0.301 0.441 OK
Liam HicksC 10309 0.300 290.475 42000 20 0.000 0.273 0.368 0.454 OK
Chandler SimpsonLF 111430133 0.309 0250.336 44210 00 0.500 0.337 0.364 0.397 OK
Ryan ViladeRF 6417645 0.256 10350.318 43100 11 0.333 0.269 0.334 0.527 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 10235574 0.208 13380.285 44111 00 0.250 0.217 0.275 0.334 OK
Richie Palacios2B 9025762 0.241 5360.342 44100 02 0.250 0.192 0.299 0.291 OK
Jorge MateoSS 141 0.250 010.250 44112 02 0.250 0.220 0.257 0.364 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36339 55 39 0.273

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon YoungStarter 20110.43.42 1.3597.693 5.274438104 5.2 8 4
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever 5234.12.90 1.11410.038 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Andrew KittredgeMiddle Reliever 4333.64.02 1.5188.331 0.00000012 0.0 0 0
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 5645.63.16 0.96510.352 1.01000011 1.0 0 0
Josh WalkerMiddle Reliever 1411.53.91 1.47810.213 0.10000115 0.1 1 0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane McClanahanStarter 2096.93.16 1.1468.591 5.231137104 5.2 7 1
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 4946.41.55 0.90510.353 1.02111323 1.0 3 1
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 5247.52.27 0.9688.143 1.20000126 1.2 1 0
Garrett CleavingerMiddle Reliever 4431.24.62 1.57113.848 0.21000011 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

TB wins 5-2


Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs

CHW 65-58 (4.83 RPG / 4.45 RA)
2 - 3
CHC 72-53 (5.16 RPG / 4.36 RA)
WINNER: CHC wins 3-2 TARGET: CHW 2 - 3 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CHW00010100025
CHC01200000x34

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs6.1
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff8
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak3W

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed5.2
Run Diff1
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

CHW Season Quality

Record65-58
Win%0.528
Run Diff47
RD/Game0.382

CHC Season Quality

Record72-53
Win%0.576
Run Diff100
RD/Game0.800

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2774; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chase Meidroth2B 117435121 0.278 12490.353 55000 00 0.000 0.257 0.331 0.431 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 8831574 0.235 28570.368 43111 10 0.333 0.228 0.355 0.549 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 120452108 0.239 28720.343 44100 01 0.250 0.238 0.326 0.576 OK
Randal GrichukDH 6915445 0.292 9260.323 43100 12 0.333 0.289 0.313 0.530 OK
Braden MontgomeryRF 5620248 0.238 4280.329 43000 11 0.000 0.247 0.336 0.384 OK
Brenton DoyleCF 10297 0.241 110.241 44111 00 0.250 0.159 0.214 0.265 OK
Sam AntonacciLF 10135298 0.278 8350.367 44000 02 0.000 0.289 0.336 0.422 OK
Luisangel AcuñaSS 7018344 0.240 1120.273 43000 12 0.000 0.208 0.234 0.247 OK
Jake RogersC 140 0.000 000.000 43100 10 0.333 0.207 0.302 0.328
TEAM TOTALS 37325 22 58 0.156

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 123467130 0.278 28750.376 43000 12 0.000 0.235 0.306 0.513 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 106402111 0.276 21730.366 44110 01 0.250 0.258 0.334 0.468 OK
Michael Busch1B 121461114 0.247 13610.354 43000 10 0.000 0.254 0.335 0.355 OK
Alex Bregman3B 121478121 0.253 16610.345 44112 01 0.250 0.233 0.328 0.468 OK
Ian HappLF 11743293 0.215 20510.321 33111 01 0.333 0.193 0.289 0.353 OK
Nico HoernerSS 120479125 0.261 7560.318 33000 00 0.000 0.268 0.320 0.365 OK
Pedro Ramirez2B 4512438 0.306 2150.356 32000 11 0.000 0.288 0.336 0.450 OK
Michael ConfortoDH 7918843 0.229 10290.313 33000 01 0.000 0.207 0.292 0.414 OK
Miguel AmayaC 5617442 0.241 5220.330 33100 01 0.333 0.241 0.305 0.437 OK
TEAM TOTALS 31284 33 38 0.143

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Luis CastilloStarter 211.04.09 0.90912.315 5.14333691 5.1 6 3
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 4151.92.60 1.11813.276 1.10000010 1.1 0 0
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever 4355.03.11 1.2919.860 1.10000219 1.1 2 0
Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever 3427.13.65 1.66112.337 0.00000015 0.0 0 0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shota ImanagaStarter 24134.33.82 1.1248.7130 5.25222694 5.2 6 2
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 5449.12.57 1.28311.261 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 53.47.94 2.35315.96 1.00001120 1.0 1 0
Trent ThorntonMiddle Reliever 3633.92.65 1.2095.621 1.10001021 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 3-2


Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

DET 60-64 (4.56 RPG / 3.89 RA)
3 - 5
PIT 61-65 (5.02 RPG / 4.79 RA)
WINNER: PIT wins 5-3 TARGET: DET 4 - 5 PIT (PIT) Confidence: 53.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
DET00003000036
PIT02020100x57

DET Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff14
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

DET Season Quality

Record60-64
Win%0.484
Run Diff83
RD/Game0.669

PIT Season Quality

Record61-65
Win%0.484
Run Diff30
RD/Game0.238

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3655; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gleyber TorresDH 6725168 0.271 8330.379 44000 03 0.000 0.287 0.380 0.430 OK
Kevin McGonigle3B 119454128 0.282 12480.388 44113 00 0.250 0.269 0.376 0.395 OK
Dillon DinglerC 114437114 0.261 26820.324 44110 02 0.250 0.201 0.242 0.372 OK
Colt Keith1B 11132286 0.267 9310.313 44110 00 0.250 0.270 0.306 0.443 OK
Zach McKinstryRF 9529364 0.218 4240.298 43000 11 0.000 0.210 0.291 0.305 OK
Hao-Yu Lee2B 7320454 0.265 6280.293 44100 01 0.250 0.145 0.177 0.260 OK
Brett CallahanLF 121 0.500 020.500 44100 01 0.250 0.218 0.230 1.293 OK
Max ClarkCF 155815 0.259 180.317 44100 02 0.250 0.229 0.268 0.363 OK
Javier BáezSS 3713035 0.269 2140.294 32000 11 0.000 0.242 0.269 0.330 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 33 211 0.182

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jared TrioloSS 8024560 0.245 2230.322 44111 00 0.250 0.238 0.304 0.344 OK
Esmerlyn ValdezRF 5317244 0.256 11330.373 44000 02 0.000 0.266 0.376 0.508 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 123450120 0.267 15650.378 44000 02 0.000 0.247 0.348 0.385 OK
Nick Gonzales2B 114435132 0.303 4510.357 44110 01 0.250 0.293 0.338 0.374 OK
Brandon LoweDH 114452113 0.250 26790.315 44100 01 0.250 0.247 0.307 0.467 OK
Rafael Flores Jr.1B 134012 0.300 4100.391 43110 11 0.333 0.291 0.376 0.596 OK
Jake MangumCF 92332101 0.304 4280.351 33211 00 0.667 0.290 0.321 0.399 OK
Nick Yorke3B 258017 0.212 190.273 32113 10 0.500 0.201 0.243 0.293 OK
Henry DavisC 7021736 0.166 8310.250 33000 03 0.000 0.151 0.215 0.240 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33317 55 210 0.226

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Framber ValdezStarter 24130.94.33 1.4137.3106 5.16442893 5.1 8 4
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 3530.83.51 1.23410.837 0.00000018 0.0 0 0
Tyler HoltonMiddle Reliever 5348.93.68 1.4938.345 1.01110117 1.0 1 1
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 4943.93.08 1.5957.838 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
Jacob WaguespackMiddle Reliever 2022.81.97 0.9656.316 0.2000012 0.2 1 0

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Carmen MlodzinskiStarter 2796.43.92 1.4527.378 4.15331674 4.1 6 3
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 33.09.00 2.0009.03 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 4941.13.72 1.29017.178 1.00001217 1.0 2 0
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 5148.43.35 1.11611.361 1.00000020 1.0 0 0
Camilo DovalMiddle Reliever 77.02.57 1.57110.38 1.21000216 1.2 2 0

Game Summary

PIT wins 5-3


Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies

LAD 74-51 (4.93 RPG / 3.84 RA)
8 - 2
COL 50-74 (4.81 RPG / 5.72 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 8-2 TARGET: LAD 6 - 4 COL (LAD) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
LAD113000003810
COL00000002024

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.2
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-4
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

COL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

LAD Season Quality

Record74-51
Win%0.592
Run Diff136
RD/Game1.088

COL Season Quality

Record50-74
Win%0.403
Run Diff-113
RD/Game-0.911

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.4906; margin adjustment: -0.6261; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Andy PagesCF 122474128 0.270 21770.335 55110 02 0.200 0.280 0.340 0.469 OK
Mookie BettsSS 8633680 0.238 15400.288 55212 00 0.400 0.267 0.316 0.473 OK
Tommy Edman2B 4515841 0.259 4210.324 54210 12 0.500 0.265 0.316 0.412 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 120452135 0.299 15550.375 44211 01 0.500 0.298 0.377 0.441 OK
Hunter FeducciaC 9226 0.273 110.304 44011 01 0.000 0.247 0.297 0.390 OK
Max Muncy3B 11337392 0.247 24600.339 44111 01 0.250 0.254 0.334 0.504 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 11440895 0.233 11540.324 43010 10 0.000 0.220 0.314 0.361 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 8830877 0.250 11410.312 44000 01 0.000 0.257 0.314 0.395 OK
Shohei OhtaniTWP 114438126 0.288 27730.388 44213 01 0.500 0.288 0.378 0.559 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393710 88 29 0.270

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Cole CarriggOF 5318554 0.292 5330.378 43000 10 0.000 0.276 0.353 0.447 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 11137579 0.211 9370.257 44212 01 0.500 0.227 0.275 0.350 OK
Connor Norby1B 5122 0.167 000.375 43000 11 0.000 0.183 0.286 0.292 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 117423124 0.293 13580.371 44000 00 0.000 0.274 0.343 0.406 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 111414104 0.251 34690.320 44110 01 0.250 0.244 0.308 0.526 OK
Willi Castro2B 10537899 0.262 13500.331 44000 01 0.000 0.253 0.314 0.405 OK
Zac VeenLF 4123 0.250 250.308 44000 01 0.000 0.223 0.294 0.774 OK
Jake McCarthyLF 103392116 0.296 13660.333 32100 00 0.500 0.277 0.306 0.456 OK
Mickey MoniakLF 8429277 0.264 19570.302 33000 00 0.000 0.235 0.284 0.468 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34314 22 25 0.129

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Blake SnellStarter 29.05.00 1.33315.015 4.12221280 4.1 2 2
Edwin DíazMiddle Reliever 1411.59.39 2.34814.919 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 5344.82.41 1.00412.562 1.11000020 1.1 0 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 5533.03.82 1.60615.356 0.21001115 0.2 1 0
Edgardo HenriquezMiddle Reliever 4942.73.58 1.24111.052 1.2000015 1.2 1 0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tomoyuki SuganoStarter 21110.44.57 1.2865.466 5.27550792 5.2 7 5
Jordan RomanoMiddle Reliever 1211.23.21 1.60711.214 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Brennan BernardinoMiddle Reliever 5841.13.50 1.5098.137 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever 3630.87.01 1.85110.235 1.00000019 1.0 0 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 4844.16.33 1.85910.250 0.10000117 0.1 1 0
Zach AgnosMiddle Reliever 3168.15.81 1.5125.945 0.0000101 0.0 0 0
Nick FrassoReliever 44.06.75 1.75011.25 0.02331018 0.0 0 3

Game Summary

LAD wins 8-2


Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies

MIA 64-61 (4.4 RPG / 4.24 RA)
0 - 2
PHI 67-58 (4.46 RPG / 4.39 RA)
WINNER: PHI wins 2-0 TARGET: MIA 0 - 1 PHI (PHI) Confidence: 51.0% fallback_enhanced
123456789RH
MIA00000000003
PHI10010000x28

MIA Recent Form

Win%0
Avg Runs4.487082066869301
Avg Allowed4.487082066869301
Run Diff?
Off Trend?
Def Trend?
Streak?

PHI Recent Form

Win%0
Avg Runs4.487082066869301
Avg Allowed4.487082066869301
Run Diff?
Off Trend?
Def Trend?
Streak?

MIA Season Quality

Record?-?
Win%?
Run Diff?
RD/Game?

PHI Season Quality

Record?-?
Win%?
Run Diff?
RD/Game?

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -; margin adjustment: -; applied: False

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Esteury RuizCF 6114035 0.250 6110.329 43000 11 0.000 0.243 0.297 0.451 OK
Heriberto HernándezLF 9130370 0.231 18500.301 44100 03 0.250 0.235 0.306 0.495 OK
Xavier Edwards2B 123454129 0.284 6460.365 43000 10 0.000 0.260 0.346 0.343 OK
Otto LopezSS 121487150 0.308 9530.341 44000 02 0.000 0.231 0.265 0.341 OK
Javier Sanoja3B 9631585 0.270 5450.304 43000 11 0.000 0.255 0.298 0.432 OK
Leo Jiménez1B 5214530 0.207 2140.284 43000 10 0.000 0.199 0.250 0.264 OK
Griffin ConineRF 5516144 0.273 13280.364 43100 12 0.333 0.223 0.318 0.458 OK
Brian NavarretoC 11232 0.087 000.192 44100 00 0.250 0.151 0.188 0.254 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 11740184 0.209 7290.325 33000 02 0.000 0.227 0.320 0.343 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35303 00 511 0.100

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 117439108 0.246 36710.364 44000 01 0.000 0.244 0.346 0.514 OK
Trea TurnerSS 117489122 0.249 17470.298 44100 00 0.250 0.224 0.280 0.345 OK
Bryce HarperRF 123434111 0.256 25720.376 43111 11 0.333 0.262 0.403 0.476 OK
Luis Arraez2B 125313 0.245 180.268 44200 00 0.500 0.265 0.299 0.362 OK
Alec Bohm1B 118443107 0.242 14670.300 43100 10 0.333 0.278 0.329 0.443 OK
Bryson Stott3B 118411109 0.265 9560.341 44111 01 0.250 0.269 0.350 0.419 OK
Brandon MarshLF 117430118 0.274 17540.320 44100 03 0.250 0.230 0.295 0.383 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 9031167 0.215 8400.284 33100 00 0.333 0.182 0.228 0.267 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 11033286 0.259 2290.307 33000 00 0.000 0.256 0.300 0.355 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34328 22 26 0.250

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Janson JunkStarter 1785.84.51 1.3526.764 5.07222492 5.0 4 2
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 4136.76.13 1.33513.254 1.2000007 1.2 0 0
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 5245.74.73 1.61911.659 1.11000220 1.1 2 0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cristopher SánchezStarter 25153.82.57 1.20910.6181 6.020038104 6.0 8 0
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 4542.41.27 0.96713.262 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Jonathan BowlanMiddle Reliever 4740.72.87 1.03212.255 1.01000216 1.0 2 0
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 5243.24.17 1.41210.852 1.00001118 1.0 1 0
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 55.03.60 1.00012.67 0.00001014 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

PHI wins 2-0


Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals

OAK 49-75 (4.35 RPG / 5.76 RA)
3 - 2
KC 51-74 (4.1 RPG / 4.99 RA)
WINNER: OAK wins 3-2 TARGET: OAK 3 - 2 KC (OAK) Confidence: 51.0% fallback_enhanced
12345678910RH
OAK000002000135
KC000020000027

OAK Recent Form

Win%0
Avg Runs4.480273141122914
Avg Allowed4.480273141122914
Run Diff?
Off Trend?
Def Trend?
Streak?

KC Recent Form

Win%0
Avg Runs4.480273141122914
Avg Allowed4.480273141122914
Run Diff?
Off Trend?
Def Trend?
Streak?

OAK Season Quality

Record?-?
Win%?
Run Diff?
RD/Game?

KC Season Quality

Record?-?
Win%?
Run Diff?
RD/Game?

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -; margin adjustment: -; applied: False

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeff McNeil1B 10633687 0.259 5390.311 55311 01 0.600 0.282 0.326 0.396 OK
Jacob WilsonSS 7932085 0.266 7370.296 55000 03 0.000 0.219 0.245 0.326 OK
Lawrence ButlerRF 10933169 0.208 11360.293 54000 00 0.000 0.228 0.295 0.511 OK
Zack GelofDH 6925069 0.276 14340.332 42010 20 0.000 0.273 0.324 0.506 OK
Carlos CortesLF 8824664 0.260 7350.335 44212 00 0.500 0.256 0.329 0.413 OK
Henry BolteCF 7726671 0.267 6250.334 44000 01 0.000 0.279 0.323 0.401 OK
Donovan Walton2B 21438 0.186 040.375 44000 01 0.000 0.151 0.232 0.268 OK
Tommy White3B 269826 0.265 120.287 43000 11 0.000 0.267 0.292 0.363 OK
Brian ServenC 10316 0.194 250.219 44000 03 0.000 0.206 0.233 0.366 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39355 33 310 0.143

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carter JensenC 11440589 0.220 16560.299 55000 01 0.000 0.177 0.252 0.321 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 105412116 0.282 14420.351 55000 03 0.000 0.272 0.337 0.460 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 115413111 0.269 22580.321 54100 10 0.250 0.283 0.325 0.521 OK
Maikel Garcia3B 6726470 0.265 3300.319 44000 01 0.000 0.245 0.296 0.350 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 7828867 0.233 6330.320 44100 01 0.250 0.255 0.334 0.361 OK
Salvador PerezDH 11443995 0.216 16520.263 44210 02 0.500 0.213 0.240 0.328 OK
Michael Massey2B 10132187 0.271 11420.301 44212 01 0.500 0.310 0.336 0.527 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 10935080 0.229 6350.327 43000 12 0.000 0.170 0.257 0.278 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 6419344 0.228 4150.278 44100 02 0.250 0.212 0.252 0.330 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39377 22 213 0.189

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Mason BarnettStarter 1736.66.39 1.5038.936 4.06221972 4.0 9 2
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 5744.24.28 1.85514.772 1.10000220 1.1 2 0
Elvis AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 3832.65.52 1.47213.348 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Luis MedinaMiddle Reliever 4050.83.54 1.45711.967 2.01001226 2.0 2 0
Drew RomReliever 31.30.00 0.76920.83 1.10000017 1.1 0 0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael WachaStarter 24148.13.52 1.1687.1117 6.132236104 6.1 6 2
Steven CruzMiddle Reliever 4340.94.62 1.34511.251 1.10000217 1.1 2 0
Nate PearsonMiddle Reliever 98.21.10 0.8549.99 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
John SchreiberMiddle Reliever 4937.74.30 1.6187.933 1.12110123 1.1 1 1

Game Summary

OAK wins 3-2 (Extra Innings - 10)


San Diego Padres @ New York Mets

SD 67-58 (4.28 RPG / 4.26 RA)
2 - 5
NYM 56-69 (4.18 RPG / 4.52 RA)
WINNER: NYM wins 5-2 TARGET: SD 3 - 4 NYM (NYM) Confidence: 59.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
SD00010000125
NYM03200000x511

SD Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff20
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.4
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff11
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak3W

SD Season Quality

Record67-58
Win%0.536
Run Diff3
RD/Game0.024

NYM Season Quality

Record56-69
Win%0.448
Run Diff-42
RD/Game-0.336

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3856; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 121478134 0.280 13550.353 44000 02 0.000 0.275 0.340 0.494 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 7224855 0.222 4200.306 43000 10 0.000 0.233 0.290 0.332 OK
Manny Machado3B 12245496 0.211 23700.295 44100 01 0.250 0.202 0.276 0.324 OK
Ty France1B 9331692 0.291 17510.346 44100 01 0.250 0.275 0.313 0.438 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 121471115 0.244 19630.295 43000 10 0.000 0.255 0.303 0.439 OK
Luis CampusanoC 4412840 0.312 5230.405 43011 01 0.000 0.296 0.376 0.496 OK
Gavin SheetsDH 11534172 0.211 16450.312 43111 11 0.333 0.206 0.300 0.400 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 11840490 0.223 11460.321 43100 11 0.333 0.213 0.325 0.365 OK
Luis RengifoLF 279330 0.323 4130.411 44100 01 0.250 0.269 0.340 0.416 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36315 22 48 0.161

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
A.J. EwingLF 8330176 0.252 7280.327 55312 00 0.600 0.198 0.276 0.302 OK
Francisco LindorSS 6726164 0.245 12320.334 43000 11 0.000 0.265 0.352 0.470 OK
Bo Bichette3B 121485129 0.266 12620.311 44110 02 0.250 0.318 0.365 0.471 OK
Carson BengeRF 116443120 0.271 14490.335 44112 00 0.250 0.276 0.334 0.431 OK
Luis Robert Jr.CF 4415734 0.217 6170.287 43111 11 0.333 0.222 0.281 0.359 OK
Jared Young1B 7021658 0.269 7260.338 44210 01 0.500 0.305 0.350 0.503 OK
Marcus Semien2B 10336578 0.214 14410.274 44100 01 0.250 0.188 0.248 0.324 OK
Jorge PolancoDH 3613219 0.144 260.199 44100 02 0.250 0.150 0.200 0.243 OK
Francisco AlvarezC 8327466 0.241 12290.330 44100 01 0.250 0.218 0.298 0.381 OK
TEAM TOTALS 373511 55 29 0.314

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Walker BuehlerStarter 24110.65.05 1.4748.1100 5.07552792 5.0 7 5
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 4948.30.93 0.89017.393 1.01000018 1.0 0 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 5758.43.08 1.21612.380 1.1100015 1.1 1 0
Jeremiah EstradaMiddle Reliever 3125.63.87 1.25013.037 0.01000015 0.0 0 0
Bradgley RodriguezMiddle Reliever 5148.32.42 1.22211.059 0.21000116 0.2 1 0
Yuki MatsuiMiddle Reliever 3641.72.59 1.31910.850 0.0000000 0.0 0 0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nolan McLeanStarter 24134.83.47 1.15010.6159 6.020036100 6.0 6 0
Kodai SengaMiddle Reliever 1847.18.22 1.74111.560 1.02110128 1.0 1 1
Daniel DuarteMiddle Reliever 1417.71.02 0.7347.615 1.10000021 1.1 0 0
Nathan LavenderMiddle Reliever 53.50.00 0.85715.46 0.21111115 0.2 1 1

Game Summary

NYM wins 5-2


St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

STL 64-61 (4.4 RPG / 4.34 RA)
1 - 2
CIN 59-65 (4.06 RPG / 4.76 RA)
WINNER: CIN wins 2-1 TARGET: STL 1 - 2 CIN (CIN) Confidence: 51.0% fallback_enhanced
123456789RH
STL00100000015
CIN00000200x26

STL Recent Form

Win%0
Avg Runs4.497714575926866
Avg Allowed4.497714575926866
Run Diff?
Off Trend?
Def Trend?
Streak?

CIN Recent Form

Win%0
Avg Runs4.497714575926866
Avg Allowed4.497714575926866
Run Diff?
Off Trend?
Def Trend?
Streak?

STL Season Quality

Record?-?
Win%?
Run Diff?
RD/Game?

CIN Season Quality

Record?-?
Win%?
Run Diff?
RD/Game?

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -; margin adjustment: -; applied: False

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joshua BaezLF 293 0.333 350.333 44000 02 0.000 0.326 0.334 1.206 OK
Iván HerreraDH 121455111 0.244 12500.356 43000 11 0.000 0.259 0.334 0.388 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 118456130 0.285 22830.346 44100 01 0.250 0.274 0.328 0.491 OK
Alec Burleson1B 120460133 0.289 21890.354 44211 00 0.500 0.310 0.365 0.600 OK
José FermínLF 8122455 0.246 5270.316 44000 02 0.000 0.250 0.330 0.357 OK
Masyn WinnSS 11341197 0.236 4490.308 43100 11 0.333 0.208 0.273 0.281 OK
Blaze Jordan3B 4515138 0.252 2240.269 44000 00 0.000 0.261 0.283 0.397 OK
Everson PereiraCF 493 0.333 110.500 33000 00 0.000 0.250 0.299 0.496 OK
Pedro PagésC 5516234 0.210 4110.253 33100 00 0.333 0.197 0.243 0.301 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34325 11 27 0.156

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Elly De La CruzSS 103405107 0.264 20560.347 44100 00 0.250 0.188 0.278 0.368 OK
Sal Stewart1B 122464121 0.261 26910.337 44100 02 0.250 0.260 0.325 0.444 OK
Tyler StephensonC 9329975 0.251 12390.333 44112 01 0.250 0.176 0.256 0.380 OK
Eugenio SuárezDH 9132567 0.206 18490.286 44000 00 0.000 0.200 0.276 0.432 OK
Dane MyersCF 7419048 0.253 3180.342 32000 10 0.000 0.212 0.295 0.290 OK
Michael TogliaLF 5122 0.167 000.231 33000 01 0.000 0.177 0.238 0.276 OK
Matt McLain2B 9431962 0.194 11290.291 33000 00 0.000 0.188 0.276 0.368 OK
Noelvi MarteRF 5718736 0.193 6150.228 33210 00 0.667 0.116 0.153 0.197 OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B 5817626 0.148 580.202 33100 01 0.333 0.138 0.186 0.254 OK
TEAM TOTALS 31306 22 15 0.200

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Quinn MathewsStarter 15.03.60 1.8005.43 5.02221397 5.0 3 2
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 5047.83.20 1.1519.249 1.02000115 1.0 1 0
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 5546.14.30 1.45310.353 1.2200007 1.2 0 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever 5240.15.16 1.69611.049 0.10000114 0.1 1 0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kent EmanuelStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 3.05112563 3.0 5 1
Emilio PagánMiddle Reliever 2826.44.09 1.0989.929 2.00000225 2.0 2 0
Tejay AntoneMiddle Reliever 4134.44.19 1.2799.938 1.10000020 1.1 0 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 6251.53.15 1.43710.359 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Pierce JohnsonMiddle Reliever 4128.15.77 1.60110.232 1.10000017 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

CIN wins 2-1


St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

STL 64-61 (4.4 RPG / 4.34 RA)
4 - 0
CIN 59-65 (4.06 RPG / 4.76 RA)
WINNER: STL wins 4-0 TARGET: STL 3 - 2 CIN (STL) Confidence: 51.0% fallback_enhanced
123456789RH
STL001300000411
CIN00000000004

STL Recent Form

Win%0
Avg Runs4.487082066869301
Avg Allowed4.487082066869301
Run Diff?
Off Trend?
Def Trend?
Streak?

CIN Recent Form

Win%0
Avg Runs4.487082066869301
Avg Allowed4.487082066869301
Run Diff?
Off Trend?
Def Trend?
Streak?

STL Season Quality

Record?-?
Win%?
Run Diff?
RD/Game?

CIN Season Quality

Record?-?
Win%?
Run Diff?
RD/Game?

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -; margin adjustment: -; applied: False

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joshua BaezLF 293 0.333 350.333 55312 00 0.600 0.326 0.334 1.207 OK
Iván HerreraDH 121455111 0.244 12500.356 55210 02 0.400 0.259 0.335 0.388 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 118456130 0.285 22830.346 55000 02 0.000 0.274 0.328 0.491 OK
Alec Burleson1B 120460133 0.289 21890.354 43100 11 0.333 0.310 0.365 0.600 OK
José FermínLF 8122455 0.246 5270.316 44100 01 0.250 0.250 0.330 0.357 OK
Masyn WinnSS 11341197 0.236 4490.308 44100 01 0.250 0.208 0.273 0.282 OK
Blaze Jordan3B 4515138 0.252 2240.269 44211 01 0.500 0.261 0.284 0.398 OK
Everson PereiraCF 493 0.333 110.500 44111 01 0.250 0.250 0.299 0.496 OK
Pedro PagésC 5516234 0.210 4110.253 44000 02 0.000 0.197 0.243 0.302 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393811 44 111 0.289

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Elly De La CruzSS 103405107 0.264 20560.347 44000 02 0.000 0.188 0.278 0.368 OK
Sal Stewart1B 122464121 0.261 26910.337 44200 01 0.500 0.260 0.325 0.444 OK
Tyler StephensonC 9329975 0.251 12390.333 43000 11 0.000 0.176 0.256 0.380 OK
Eugenio SuárezDH 9132567 0.206 18490.286 44000 01 0.000 0.200 0.276 0.432 OK
Dane MyersCF 7419048 0.253 3180.342 44000 02 0.000 0.212 0.295 0.290 OK
Michael TogliaLF 5122 0.167 000.231 44000 00 0.000 0.177 0.238 0.276 OK
Matt McLain2B 9431962 0.194 11290.291 32000 10 0.000 0.188 0.276 0.368 OK
Noelvi MarteRF 5718736 0.193 6150.228 33100 01 0.333 0.116 0.153 0.197 OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B 5817626 0.148 580.202 33100 01 0.333 0.138 0.186 0.254 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33314 00 29 0.129

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andre PallanteStarter 23127.23.54 1.2426.592 6.03001494 6.0 4 0
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 5047.83.20 1.1519.249 1.00001217 1.0 2 0
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 5546.14.30 1.45310.353 1.01000117 1.0 1 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever 5240.15.16 1.69611.049 1.00000214 1.0 2 0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Rhett LowderStarter 2191.35.32 1.5337.677 4.28441699 4.2 6 4
Emilio PagánMiddle Reliever 2826.44.09 1.0989.929 1.11000127 1.1 1 0
Tejay AntoneMiddle Reliever 4134.44.19 1.2799.938 1.00000120 1.0 1 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 6251.53.15 1.43710.359 1.01000217 1.0 2 0
Pierce JohnsonMiddle Reliever 4128.15.77 1.60110.232 1.01000116 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

STL wins 4-0