MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

August 13, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (9 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
BOS @ TOR4 - 26 - 1BOSBOSBOS wins 6-154%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ WAS4 - 34 - 3CHCCHCCHC wins 4-358%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CIN @ CHW4 - 52 - 6CHWCHWCHW wins 6-254%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ DET3 - 53 - 5DETDETDET wins 5-356%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ LAD7 - 67 - 6MILMILMIL wins 7-651%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PHI @ MIN5 - 45 - 3PHIPHIPHI wins 5-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ MIA3 - 43 - 4MIAMIAMIA wins 4-358%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SEA @ NYY3 - 43 - 4NYYNYYNYY wins 4-356%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TEX @ LAA4 - 34 - 3TEXTEXTEX wins 4-352%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

BOS 65-56 (4.45 RPG / 3.74 RA)
6 - 1
TOR 59-64 (3.92 RPG / 4.41 RA)
WINNER: BOS wins 6-1 TARGET: BOS 4 - 2 TOR (BOS) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
BOS100040001610
TOR01000000014

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs6.5
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff23
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak5L

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3W

BOS Season Quality

Record64-56
Win%0.533
Run Diff79
RD/Game0.658

TOR Season Quality

Record59-63
Win%0.484
Run Diff-54
RD/Game-0.443

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.8047; margin adjustment: -0.338; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Sogard2B 248522 0.259 030.376 55210 02 0.400 0.264 0.364 0.385 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 112445127 0.285 15610.323 55311 00 0.600 0.271 0.293 0.453 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 115437112 0.256 21640.332 54110 11 0.250 0.252 0.334 0.510 OK
Willson Contreras1B 107374104 0.278 24710.388 55000 00 0.000 0.195 0.286 0.424 OK
Masataka YoshidaDH 7924563 0.257 4250.326 53110 20 0.333 0.257 0.320 0.399 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 10837089 0.241 11520.309 54111 11 0.250 0.249 0.302 0.374 OK
Jarren DuranLF 11142886 0.201 16550.260 44114 00 0.250 0.195 0.248 0.351 OK
Andruw MonasterioSS 7623062 0.270 6320.329 43000 11 0.000 0.275 0.346 0.419 OK
Connor WongC 5415539 0.252 3190.339 44100 00 0.250 0.214 0.278 0.390 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423710 66 55 0.270

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Charles McAdooLF 11347 0.206 250.243 44100 01 0.250 0.207 0.255 0.374 OK
Ernie Clement2B 119458129 0.282 9420.306 44000 03 0.000 0.240 0.265 0.352 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 112423111 0.262 7460.334 44000 02 0.000 0.251 0.313 0.361 OK
George SpringerDH 8834080 0.235 12360.319 44111 02 0.250 0.179 0.265 0.283 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 11643098 0.228 24710.303 44000 01 0.000 0.215 0.280 0.353 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 6319445 0.232 8210.309 33100 01 0.333 0.165 0.242 0.263 OK
Myles StrawCF 8921148 0.227 3200.270 32000 10 0.000 0.232 0.274 0.354 OK
Nathan LukesRF 8428175 0.267 6210.319 33000 00 0.000 0.177 0.216 0.271 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 11036387 0.240 8470.286 33100 02 0.333 0.246 0.275 0.362 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32314 11 112 0.129

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Payton TolleStarter 19104.93.26 1.12510.6124 5.23111996 5.2 9 1
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 4039.21.38 1.14811.550 1.10000019 1.1 0 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 4543.32.08 0.90110.249 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Justin SlatenMiddle Reliever 3625.55.65 1.68613.839 1.00000213 1.0 2 0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Max ScherzerStarter 934.67.54 1.5907.027 4.07554487 4.0 4 5
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 5657.91.40 1.07111.876 2.01000028 2.0 0 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 5751.51.75 1.2434.928 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
Spencer MilesMiddle Reliever 3569.73.49 1.2209.372 1.10001023 1.1 0 0
Mason FluhartyMiddle Reliever 6136.84.40 1.57613.555 0.22110114 0.2 1 1

Game Summary

BOS wins 6-1


Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals

CHC 71-51 (5.2 RPG / 4.31 RA)
4 - 3
WAS 60-63 (5.38 RPG / 5.2 RA)
WINNER: CHC wins 4-3 TARGET: CHC 4 - 3 WAS (CHC) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CHC00020101046
WAS011100000310

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs6.5
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff25
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak3W

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed5.2
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

CHC Season Quality

Record71-50
Win%0.587
Run Diff115
RD/Game0.950

WAS Season Quality

Record59-63
Win%0.484
Run Diff16
RD/Game0.131

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9075; margin adjustment: -0.3811; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 119450129 0.287 27730.386 44000 00 0.000 0.270 0.345 0.531 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 102387107 0.276 20700.368 43111 11 0.333 0.280 0.355 0.476 OK
Michael Busch1B 118451111 0.246 13610.353 44110 01 0.250 0.264 0.340 0.377 OK
Alex Bregman3B 117465120 0.258 16610.349 44212 01 0.500 0.341 0.414 0.807 OK
Ian HappLF 11342092 0.219 20510.326 44000 00 0.000 0.214 0.312 0.434 OK
Pedro Ramirez2B 4211335 0.310 2150.363 44000 00 0.000 0.304 0.359 0.512 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 11339184 0.215 16590.298 44111 01 0.250 0.234 0.318 0.424 OK
Michael ConfortoDH 7618042 0.233 9260.317 43000 01 0.000 0.248 0.335 0.422 OK
Miguel AmayaC 5316540 0.242 4210.332 33100 00 0.333 0.263 0.320 0.450 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 44 15 0.182

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
CJ AbramsSS 118447127 0.284 29910.358 55100 01 0.200 0.230 0.288 0.447 OK
Abimelec Ortiz1B 10268 0.308 350.333 44100 01 0.250 0.210 0.245 0.489 OK
Dylan CrewsRF 6826256 0.214 10260.287 44100 00 0.250 0.181 0.224 0.325 OK
Daylen LileLF 120458113 0.247 15640.296 44212 00 0.500 0.245 0.280 0.420 OK
Brady House3B 5821250 0.236 8270.288 44000 01 0.000 0.237 0.283 0.374 OK
Jorbit Vivas2B 8221552 0.242 3180.328 44210 00 0.500 0.242 0.333 0.321 OK
Andrés ChaparroDH 4510223 0.225 6280.325 44211 00 0.500 0.230 0.303 0.464 OK
Keibert RuizC 7625170 0.279 7390.316 44000 02 0.000 0.308 0.352 0.441 OK
Andrew PinckneyCF 362 0.333 110.429 44100 00 0.250 0.310 0.397 0.734 OK
TEAM TOTALS 373710 33 05 0.270

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kevin GausmanStarter 17.02.57 0.7145.14 5.29330298 5.2 2 3
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 5348.12.62 1.28911.260 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 42.411.25 2.50015.04 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Trent ThorntonMiddle Reliever 3433.62.68 1.1905.119 1.1100015 1.1 1 0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cade CavalliStarter 25126.13.64 1.32410.1141 5.25331490 5.2 4 3
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 3732.53.60 1.29210.237 1.1000018 1.1 1 0
Orlando RibaltaMiddle Reliever 3832.53.88 1.3238.932 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Yovanny CruzMiddle Reliever 42.212.27 4.09112.33 1.00000016 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 4-3


Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox

CIN 58-62 (4.13 RPG / 4.78 RA)
2 - 6
CHW 62-58 (4.78 RPG / 4.45 RA)
WINNER: CHW wins 6-2 TARGET: CIN 4 - 5 CHW (CHW) Confidence: 54.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CIN10000001026
CHW02003100x69

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

CIN Season Quality

Record57-62
Win%0.479
Run Diff-78
RD/Game-0.655

CHW Season Quality

Record62-57
Win%0.521
Run Diff41
RD/Game0.345

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6798; margin adjustment: 0.2855; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Elly De La CruzSS 99391106 0.271 20560.351 54100 10 0.250 0.218 0.297 0.426 OK
Sal Stewart1B 118449116 0.258 25870.335 53111 10 0.333 0.237 0.302 0.404 OK
JJ BledayLF 8931971 0.223 20470.333 55000 02 0.000 0.170 0.281 0.347 OK
Tyler StephensonC 8928771 0.247 10350.329 54200 12 0.500 0.147 0.236 0.280 OK
Eugenio SuárezDH 8731264 0.205 17440.282 43000 10 0.000 0.188 0.258 0.461 OK
Dane MyersCF 7117946 0.257 3180.345 42011 11 0.000 0.153 0.238 0.231 OK
Héctor RodríguezRF 7182 0.111 000.238 44100 00 0.250 0.140 0.245 0.218 OK
Matt McLain2B 9030459 0.194 10280.293 43100 11 0.333 0.194 0.289 0.366 OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B 5416723 0.138 470.191 44000 00 0.000 0.134 0.173 0.225 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40326 22 66 0.188

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chase Meidroth2B 113420116 0.276 12480.350 55110 00 0.200 0.271 0.337 0.504 OK
Randal GrichukDH 6614640 0.274 9230.307 43211 00 0.667 0.182 0.212 0.383 OK
Miguel Vargas1B 116434102 0.235 25680.341 43000 11 0.000 0.227 0.331 0.465 OK
Braden MontgomeryRF 5218743 0.230 4240.316 44113 00 0.250 0.230 0.312 0.372 OK
Brenton DoyleCF 7216 0.286 110.286 44210 01 0.500 0.242 0.297 0.372 OK
Colson Montgomery3B 11342591 0.214 26680.296 43000 00 0.000 0.211 0.277 0.423 OK
Edgar QueroC 5817835 0.197 3170.260 44000 00 0.000 0.230 0.297 0.352 OK
Sam AntonacciLF 9733792 0.273 8350.364 44212 00 0.500 0.267 0.326 0.394 OK
Luisangel AcuñaSS 6918143 0.238 1120.271 42110 11 0.500 0.196 0.223 0.236 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37329 66 23 0.281

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew AbbottStarter 24126.14.00 1.4207.199 5.17551294 5.1 2 5
Emilio PagánMiddle Reliever 2725.44.25 1.14210.329 0.22110015 0.2 0 1
Tejay AntoneMiddle Reliever 3833.13.26 1.1789.535 1.0000015 1.0 1 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 6050.33.22 1.4519.855 1.00001015 1.0 0 0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Davis MartinStarter 23120.24.27 1.3568.1108 5.04112385 5.0 3 1
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 4151.92.60 1.11813.276 1.11000021 1.1 0 0
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever 3951.53.32 1.3209.856 1.10000125 1.1 1 0
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever 4840.63.33 1.4539.844 1.00113125 1.0 1 1
Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever 3427.13.65 1.66112.337 0.11001115 0.1 1 0

Game Summary

CHW wins 6-2


Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers

CLE 59-63 (3.96 RPG / 4.2 RA)
3 - 5
DET 60-61 (4.56 RPG / 3.82 RA)
WINNER: DET wins 5-3 TARGET: CLE 3 - 5 DET (DET) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CLE001101000310
DET30010100x54

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed6.0
Run Diff-10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

DET Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs6.3
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff37
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

CLE Season Quality

Record59-62
Win%0.488
Run Diff-27
RD/Game-0.223

DET Season Quality

Record59-61
Win%0.492
Run Diff87
RD/Game0.725

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9759; margin adjustment: 0.4099; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanCF 107380101 0.266 2220.362 55000 01 0.000 0.277 0.369 0.351 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 100382109 0.285 13570.358 54100 11 0.250 0.285 0.349 0.447 OK
Nathaniel Lowe1B 6195 0.263 160.286 55000 00 0.000 0.196 0.266 0.363 OK
Jo AdellLF 8295 0.172 240.324 55111 02 0.200 0.212 0.260 0.392 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 8631977 0.241 9350.340 55310 01 0.600 0.212 0.305 0.304 OK
Angel Genao3B 6248 0.333 130.385 44100 01 0.250 0.213 0.246 0.371 OK
Austin HedgesC 5515843 0.272 4190.346 42200 20 1.000 0.225 0.318 0.363 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 116409104 0.254 9500.316 43000 00 0.000 0.209 0.255 0.293 OK
Petey HalpinCF 4311425 0.219 270.250 44212 00 0.500 0.224 0.246 0.311 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413710 33 36 0.270

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gleyber Torres2B 6323561 0.260 8310.371 43010 12 0.000 0.233 0.322 0.393 OK
Dillon DinglerC 110420113 0.269 26800.332 44000 02 0.000 0.219 0.260 0.398 OK
Kevin McGonigleSS 115439126 0.287 12480.393 44211 00 0.500 0.263 0.364 0.392 OK
Eduardo ValenciaDH 144116 0.390 4130.419 33213 00 0.667 0.369 0.389 0.739 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 11841093 0.227 20610.317 32011 01 0.000 0.294 0.377 0.450 OK
Hao-Yu Lee3B 7019853 0.268 6280.297 32010 11 0.000 0.270 0.300 0.427 OK
Max ClarkCF 114513 0.289 170.360 33000 01 0.000 0.264 0.311 0.427 OK
Javier BáezLF 3412034 0.283 2140.310 33000 02 0.000 0.290 0.316 0.383 OK
Ben MalgeriRF 194712 0.255 170.333 33000 01 0.000 0.253 0.338 0.375 OK
TEAM TOTALS 30274 55 210 0.148

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Parker MessickStarter 23131.32.67 1.0819.3136 6.03332794 6.0 7 3
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 5151.42.45 1.18713.577 1.0111024 1.0 2 1
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 4633.04.09 1.57610.639 0.0111004 0.0 0 1
Colin HoldermanMiddle Reliever 4540.91.54 0.92910.146 1.0000013 1.0 1 0
Tim HerrinMiddle Reliever 4830.04.80 1.8679.933 0.00000016 0.0 0 0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Keider MonteroStarter 25118.63.49 1.0466.586 5.283325103 5.2 5 3
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 3429.83.62 1.27511.237 1.02000119 1.0 1 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 4842.73.16 1.6397.837 1.10001020 1.1 0 0
Tyler HoltonMiddle Reliever 5146.73.28 1.4358.544 1.00000016 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

DET wins 5-3


Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers

MIL 74-47 (4.89 RPG / 3.82 RA)
7 - 6
LAD 73-48 (5.01 RPG / 3.83 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 7-6 TARGET: MIL 7 - 6 LAD (MIL) Confidence: 51.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
MIL300010300711
LAD001200210612

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-12
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3W

MIL Season Quality

Record74-47
Win%0.612
Run Diff130
RD/Game1.074

LAD Season Quality

Record72-48
Win%0.600
Run Diff140
RD/Game1.167

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0143; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson ChourioLF 8535198 0.279 17480.344 54210 11 0.500 0.222 0.297 0.429 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 10333883 0.246 7430.344 53212 20 0.667 0.158 0.272 0.279 OK
Gary Sánchez1B 6116538 0.230 10290.373 55111 02 0.200 0.243 0.370 0.508 OK
Jake BauersRF 10435695 0.267 20650.371 54213 00 0.500 0.268 0.373 0.491 OK
Andrew Vaughn3B 7120862 0.298 5340.376 55110 00 0.200 0.286 0.353 0.442 OK
Christian YelichDH 7930568 0.223 8380.309 55211 01 0.400 0.201 0.268 0.349 OK
William ContrerasC 110423109 0.258 11580.328 44000 01 0.000 0.205 0.293 0.312 OK
Joey OrtizSS 8324558 0.237 5280.307 44000 01 0.000 0.239 0.312 0.348 OK
David Hamilton2B 8324957 0.229 3160.302 44110 00 0.250 0.219 0.291 0.307 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423811 77 36 0.289

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 110423123 0.291 27720.392 55310 00 0.600 0.283 0.372 0.526 OK
Andy PagesCF 118459124 0.270 19750.336 55111 01 0.200 0.267 0.325 0.421 OK
Tommy Edman2B 4114539 0.269 3200.329 55100 02 0.200 0.131 0.176 0.240 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 117441135 0.306 15550.382 55112 01 0.200 0.273 0.349 0.382 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 8429573 0.247 11410.310 44100 01 0.250 0.200 0.256 0.330 OK
Miguel RojasSS 6916648 0.289 3180.319 43210 11 0.667 0.294 0.339 0.426 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 11139795 0.239 11540.332 44111 00 0.250 0.205 0.305 0.395 OK
Enrique Hernández3B 10216 0.286 120.318 44112 00 0.250 0.265 0.304 0.472 OK
Ben RortvedtC 361 0.167 000.167 44100 01 0.250 0.164 0.177 0.243 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403912 66 17 0.308

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane DrohanStarter 2390.23.99 1.2869.393 5.273313108 5.2 3 3
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 4746.31.75 0.82110.353 1.03220222 1.0 2 2
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 4944.62.22 1.1219.748 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 5659.83.91 1.58914.395 1.10000120 1.1 1 0

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Roki SasakiStarter 20102.94.64 1.3029.3106 5.254434106 5.2 4 4
Edwin DíazMiddle Reliever 1210.37.86 2.03914.016 1.15330032 1.1 0 3
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 5143.72.47 1.00712.460 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Evan PhillipsMiddle Reliever 148.97.08 1.79812.112 1.00000213 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 7-6


Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins

PHI 64-58 (4.39 RPG / 4.44 RA)
5 - 3
MIN 60-62 (4.68 RPG / 4.94 RA)
WINNER: PHI wins 5-3 TARGET: PHI 5 - 4 MIN (PHI) Confidence: 53.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
PHI21000200056
MIN00030000037

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

PHI Season Quality

Record64-58
Win%0.525
Run Diff-7
RD/Game-0.057

MIN Season Quality

Record60-62
Win%0.492
Run Diff-32
RD/Game-0.262

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2044; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 114425105 0.247 34680.367 53010 22 0.000 0.270 0.388 0.520 OK
Trea TurnerSS 115482120 0.249 17470.295 55110 00 0.200 0.225 0.273 0.361 OK
Bryce HarperRF 120422107 0.254 25710.374 44213 01 0.500 0.245 0.402 0.495 OK
Luis Arraez2B 9408 0.200 160.214 44110 00 0.250 0.245 0.276 0.352 OK
Bryson Stott3B 115398106 0.266 8520.341 43000 11 0.000 0.294 0.377 0.433 OK
Alec Bohm1B 11542999 0.231 13620.292 43212 10 0.667 0.249 0.314 0.362 OK
Brandon MarshLF 115425116 0.273 16520.315 44000 02 0.000 0.215 0.266 0.327 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 8730066 0.220 8380.293 43000 11 0.000 0.217 0.268 0.324 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 10732584 0.258 2290.308 44000 00 0.000 0.267 0.314 0.380 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38336 55 57 0.182

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trevor LarnachLF 9731886 0.270 10410.352 55111 02 0.200 0.214 0.281 0.351 OK
Byron BuxtonCF 8233187 0.263 25450.320 53111 20 0.333 0.216 0.263 0.400 OK
Ryan JeffersC 5720357 0.281 10400.380 44000 02 0.000 0.253 0.343 0.407 OK
Josh BellDH 117432110 0.255 16720.316 44100 02 0.250 0.287 0.343 0.456 OK
Royce Lewis1B 8731978 0.245 13430.317 44111 01 0.250 0.300 0.352 0.477 OK
Kody Clemens2B 10539290 0.230 20560.288 44100 01 0.250 0.215 0.272 0.424 OK
Luke KeaschallRF 11237799 0.263 6350.357 43000 10 0.000 0.265 0.349 0.369 OK
Brooks Lee3B 113429106 0.247 17610.302 44200 00 0.500 0.269 0.315 0.444 OK
Kaelen CulpepperSS 4132 0.154 120.294 43000 10 0.000 0.211 0.264 0.344 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 33 48 0.206

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Aaron NolaStarter 24121.55.63 1.4909.6129 5.16333497 5.1 4 3
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 4340.41.34 0.94113.159 1.00000015 1.0 0 0
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 5041.24.37 1.48111.151 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Jonathan BowlanMiddle Reliever 4538.73.02 1.03412.353 1.00000214 1.0 2 0
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 44.04.50 1.00011.25 0.21001115 0.2 1 0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Taj BradleyStarter 23129.83.81 1.26310.3148 5.265534110 5.2 4 5
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 44.02.25 1.50013.56 1.00000219 1.0 2 0
Yoendrys GómezMiddle Reliever 4131.82.26 1.35210.537 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Andrew MorrisMiddle Reliever 4649.13.48 1.4269.954 1.10001021 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

PHI wins 5-3


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins

PIT 59-64 (5.02 RPG / 4.81 RA)
3 - 4
MIA 62-60 (4.39 RPG / 4.3 RA)
WINNER: MIA wins 4-3 TARGET: PIT 3 - 4 MIA (MIA) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
PIT20000100038
MIA00002020x48

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs2.8
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff-25
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak3L

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff16
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak4W

PIT Season Quality

Record58-64
Win%0.475
Run Diff13
RD/Game0.107

MIA Season Quality

Record62-59
Win%0.512
Run Diff23
RD/Game0.190

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4278; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Spencer Horwitz1B 8327672 0.261 10370.368 44100 01 0.250 0.211 0.314 0.326 OK
Brandon LoweDH 110434108 0.249 25740.316 44100 01 0.250 0.233 0.302 0.452 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 119435116 0.267 15630.379 43111 11 0.333 0.216 0.320 0.358 OK
Nick Gonzales2B 112429130 0.303 4510.355 44211 01 0.500 0.285 0.325 0.375 OK
Esmerlyn ValdezRF 4915537 0.239 11310.366 44000 01 0.000 0.224 0.367 0.459 OK
Jacob GonzalezSS 205210 0.192 150.189 44100 00 0.250 0.222 0.260 0.322 OK
Jake MangumCF 8831795 0.300 4270.347 44111 02 0.250 0.266 0.304 0.418 OK
Jared Triolo3B 7623056 0.243 1200.320 44000 00 0.000 0.236 0.300 0.296 OK
Rafael Flores Jr.C 9255 0.200 120.333 44100 01 0.250 0.156 0.281 0.264 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36358 33 18 0.229

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jakob MarseeCF 11338579 0.205 6280.324 43000 10 0.000 0.250 0.334 0.354 OK
Xavier Edwards2B 119441125 0.283 6460.362 43211 10 0.667 0.243 0.316 0.330 OK
Otto LopezSS 117471148 0.314 9530.346 43112 00 0.333 0.257 0.287 0.368 OK
Griffin ConineDH 5215242 0.276 13270.368 44210 00 0.500 0.294 0.388 0.616 OK
Leo Jiménez1B 4913829 0.210 2140.290 43111 01 0.333 0.218 0.273 0.287 OK
Owen CaissieRF 8624255 0.227 12510.287 43000 01 0.000 0.194 0.262 0.359 OK
Javier Sanoja3B 9230484 0.276 4420.309 43100 10 0.333 0.241 0.283 0.383 OK
Esteury RuizLF 5712834 0.266 6110.340 44100 01 0.250 0.287 0.346 0.529 OK
Joe MackC 7121450 0.234 11350.293 44000 02 0.000 0.231 0.293 0.401 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36308 44 35 0.267

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Braxton AshcraftStarter 23130.04.15 1.17710.0145 5.172223102 5.1 3 2
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 11.00.00 2.0000.00 1.21221128 1.2 1 2
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 4740.03.82 1.32516.975 1.00000116 1.0 1 0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tyler PhillipsStarter 2990.33.59 1.4067.070 5.07220484 5.0 4 2
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 4035.76.30 1.37312.951 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 5144.64.84 1.65911.557 1.00000219 1.0 2 0
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever 4843.53.31 1.21812.460 1.00001119 1.0 1 0
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 45.05.40 1.4009.05 1.0000019 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

MIA wins 4-3


Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees

SEA 57-65 (3.84 RPG / 4.06 RA)
3 - 4
NYY 68-53 (4.5 RPG / 3.77 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 4-3 TARGET: SEA 3 - 4 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 56.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
SEA00000012036
NYY21000010x46

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs2.5
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff-28
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak6L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

SEA Season Quality

Record56-65
Win%0.463
Run Diff-27
RD/Game-0.223

NYY Season Quality

Record68-52
Win%0.567
Run Diff90
RD/Game0.750

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9774; margin adjustment: 0.4105; applied: True

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Randy ArozarenaLF 113417115 0.276 16520.369 55011 01 0.000 0.211 0.276 0.407 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 109428110 0.257 19520.323 44100 00 0.250 0.243 0.313 0.472 OK
Dominic CanzoneRF 10431580 0.254 19500.325 43100 11 0.333 0.238 0.301 0.447 OK
Cal RaleighDH 8731651 0.161 12430.270 44000 00 0.000 0.154 0.265 0.278 OK
Josh Naylor1B 112432114 0.264 10430.331 43112 10 0.333 0.260 0.329 0.421 OK
Brendan Donovan2B 2910427 0.260 380.350 43100 00 0.333 0.245 0.297 0.386 OK
Weston Wilson3B 225710 0.175 270.242 44210 00 0.500 0.158 0.246 0.243 OK
Jhonny PeredaC 206617 0.258 240.310 43000 12 0.000 0.223 0.262 0.303 OK
Leo RivasSS 3810614 0.132 070.262 44000 02 0.000 0.129 0.238 0.173 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37336 33 36 0.182

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 9533975 0.221 14490.310 44210 01 0.500 0.274 0.334 0.644 OK
Ben RiceDH 112418108 0.258 31720.355 44112 01 0.250 0.245 0.340 0.505 OK
Spencer JonesLF 4412427 0.218 5180.307 44100 01 0.250 0.221 0.309 0.411 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 7276 0.222 120.276 33000 01 0.000 0.234 0.270 0.453 OK
George Lombard Jr.SS 7258 0.320 220.393 33000 01 0.000 0.289 0.356 0.442 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 10838284 0.220 17480.297 33111 01 0.333 0.211 0.307 0.350 OK
José CaballeroRF 9732278 0.242 12410.296 33111 01 0.333 0.251 0.308 0.430 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 8925757 0.222 10310.282 33000 00 0.000 0.263 0.325 0.410 OK
Ali SánchezC 265715 0.263 170.295 33000 01 0.000 0.154 0.172 0.261 OK
TEAM TOTALS 30306 44 08 0.200

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan GilbertStarter 23135.63.52 1.0259.6145 6.15330696 6.1 6 3
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 4440.83.53 1.20114.867 1.21110222 1.2 2 1
José A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 5343.43.94 1.5218.541 0.00000014 0.0 0 0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Max FriedStarter 1479.72.94 0.9918.575 5.22002695 5.2 6 0
David BednarMiddle Reliever 4949.42.73 1.11310.960 1.02111023 1.0 0 1
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 5636.83.91 1.84815.262 1.02220019 1.0 0 2
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 6249.91.80 1.36313.776 1.10000017 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-3


Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels

TEX 60-61 (4.11 RPG / 4.39 RA)
4 - 3
LAA 47-74 (4.07 RPG / 4.82 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 4-3 TARGET: TEX 4 - 3 LAA (TEX) Confidence: 52.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
TEX02001010047
LAA00200000138

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs2.6
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-13
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

TEX Season Quality

Record60-60
Win%0.500
Run Diff-31
RD/Game-0.258

LAA Season Quality

Record46-74
Win%0.383
Run Diff-93
RD/Game-0.775

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5084; margin adjustment: -0.2135; applied: True

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc Pederson1B 10831379 0.252 22460.343 54111 11 0.250 0.253 0.353 0.530 OK
Wyatt LangfordLF 6926968 0.253 13310.316 44111 01 0.250 0.127 0.215 0.254 OK
Corey SeagerDH 6122846 0.202 12290.300 44111 00 0.250 0.212 0.295 0.414 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 115439121 0.276 13470.342 43000 11 0.000 0.271 0.323 0.460 OK
Ezequiel Duran3B 110387104 0.269 13640.324 44000 02 0.000 0.262 0.320 0.420 OK
Evan CarterCF 10128655 0.192 8310.299 43000 11 0.000 0.201 0.283 0.297 OK
Nicky LopezSS 6318150 0.276 1200.320 44200 00 0.500 0.250 0.280 0.312 OK
Austin WynnsC 10226 0.273 110.304 44211 00 0.500 0.204 0.243 0.280 OK
Justin Foscue2B 6114337 0.259 7210.305 44000 01 0.000 0.173 0.223 0.312 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 44 37 0.206

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Wade MecklerDH 5818155 0.304 3200.364 55110 01 0.200 0.301 0.360 0.405 OK
Mike TroutCF 10236788 0.240 20440.386 54212 11 0.500 0.242 0.356 0.422 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 100370100 0.270 7420.347 44000 01 0.000 0.215 0.307 0.309 OK
Vaughn Grissom3B 7627268 0.250 7460.308 44100 02 0.250 0.232 0.276 0.355 OK
Moisés BallesterosC 9315 0.161 000.235 43000 10 0.000 0.197 0.270 0.294 OK
Denzer GuzmanSS 4315836 0.228 5170.278 44100 02 0.250 0.216 0.263 0.328 OK
Josh LoweRF 7221042 0.200 8220.259 43100 01 0.333 0.197 0.264 0.318 OK
Jose SiriLF 5413034 0.262 7210.307 44111 02 0.250 0.254 0.293 0.487 OK
Adam Frazier2B 399119 0.209 170.280 44100 03 0.250 0.132 0.197 0.220 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38358 33 213 0.229

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob deGromStarter 22116.83.93 1.14711.1144 5.152227102 5.1 7 2
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 4251.21.41 0.7039.856 1.10000221 1.1 2 0
Peyton GrayMiddle Reliever 4040.73.76 1.40010.648 1.00000216 1.0 2 0
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever 64.54.00 2.22210.05 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Robby AhlstromMiddle Reliever 3022.64.78 1.2398.822 0.13110113 0.1 1 1

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Walbert UrenaStarter 2199.82.89 1.3138.797 5.24333595 5.2 5 3
Ben JoyceMiddle Reliever 44.00.00 0.5009.04 1.02000019 1.0 0 0
Samy Natera Jr.Middle Reliever 2223.52.30 0.93616.142 1.1111005 1.1 0 1
José FerminMiddle Reliever 3734.53.65 1.47812.548 1.00000219 1.0 2 0
Luke MurphyMiddle Reliever 54.44.09 2.0458.24 0.0000008 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

TEX wins 4-3