MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

August 12, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
BAL @ MIN2 - 32 - 4MINMINMIN wins 4-253%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BOS @ TOR5 - 46 - 3BOSBOSBOS wins 6-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ WAS4 - 34 - 3CHCCHCCHC wins 4-360%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CIN @ CHW4 - 53 - 6CHWCHWCHW wins 6-351%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ DET3 - 53 - 5DETDETDET wins 5-358%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
COL @ ARI3 - 43 - 4ARIARIARI wins 4-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ SF5 - 46 - 2HOUHOUHOU wins 6-253%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
KC @ LAD4 - 53 - 5LADLADLAD wins 5-358%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ SD1 - 31 - 3SDSDSD wins 3-151%fallback_enhanced
NYM @ ATL2 - 31 - 5ATLATLATL wins 5-153%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PHI @ STL5 - 46 - 3PHIPHIPHI wins 6-351%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ MIA2 - 52 - 5MIAMIAMIA wins 5-260%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SEA @ NYY1 - 21 - 2NYYNYYNYY wins 2-165%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ OAK2 - 44 - 2OAKTBTB wins 4-251%fallback_enhanced
TEX @ LAA5 - 45 - 3TEXTEXTEX wins 5-352%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins

BAL 58-63 (4.49 RPG / 4.79 RA)
2 - 4
MIN 60-62 (4.68 RPG / 4.94 RA)
WINNER: MIN wins 4-2 TARGET: BAL 2 - 3 MIN (MIN) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
BAL01001000026
MIN30000001x48

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.1
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-12
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

BAL Season Quality

Record58-62
Win%0.483
Run Diff-34
RD/Game-0.283

MIN Season Quality

Record59-62
Win%0.488
Run Diff-34
RD/Game-0.281

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0057; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gunnar HendersonSS 116470101 0.215 18480.296 44000 00 0.000 0.217 0.294 0.380 OK
Pete Alonso1B 117438113 0.258 26770.351 43000 11 0.000 0.289 0.370 0.604 OK
Jackson Holliday2B 6418645 0.242 6210.336 44211 00 0.500 0.253 0.341 0.410 OK
Tyler O'NeillDH 7319743 0.218 10210.309 44000 02 0.000 0.221 0.312 0.418 OK
Dylan BeaversLF 6119146 0.241 2180.315 43000 11 0.000 0.236 0.306 0.324 OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B 185513 0.236 3110.300 44100 03 0.250 0.277 0.320 0.508 OK
Leody TaverasRF 9731370 0.224 6420.299 44100 00 0.250 0.230 0.296 0.379 OK
Christian FranklinCF 5121 0.083 000.154 44111 00 0.250 0.119 0.185 0.220 OK
Carlos NarváezC 7202 0.100 000.182 33100 00 0.333 0.122 0.185 0.184 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 22 27 0.182

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trevor LarnachLF 9631385 0.272 10400.354 44100 00 0.250 0.211 0.281 0.359 OK
Royce Lewis1B 8631476 0.242 13420.315 43310 10 1.000 0.296 0.351 0.462 OK
Josh BellDH 116427107 0.251 16710.313 44100 01 0.250 0.268 0.331 0.471 OK
Kody Clemens2B 10438889 0.229 20550.287 44210 02 0.500 0.210 0.262 0.422 OK
Brooks Lee3B 112425104 0.245 17610.300 44113 01 0.250 0.251 0.296 0.421 OK
Luke KeaschallCF 11137499 0.265 6340.360 43011 00 0.000 0.276 0.363 0.383 OK
Victor CaratiniC 8727562 0.225 7370.314 44000 00 0.000 0.190 0.278 0.279 OK
Alan RodenRF 225210 0.192 090.279 33000 00 0.000 0.192 0.282 0.256 OK
Ryan KreidlerSS 6819546 0.236 5250.280 32000 10 0.000 0.222 0.263 0.338 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34318 44 24 0.258

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane BazStarter 23132.63.87 1.3578.1120 6.05332499 6.0 4 3
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever 5133.92.12 1.0039.837 1.20000016 1.2 0 0
Andrew KittredgeMiddle Reliever 4131.63.99 1.4878.530 0.13110013 0.1 0 1

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zebby MatthewsStarter 1585.35.28 1.3487.773 5.05222692 5.0 6 2
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 33.03.00 1.33315.05 1.10000018 1.1 0 0
Yoendrys GómezMiddle Reliever 4030.82.05 1.33110.837 1.1100007 1.1 0 0
Andrew MorrisMiddle Reliever 4548.13.56 1.4559.752 1.10000117 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

MIN wins 4-2


Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

BOS 64-56 (4.42 RPG / 3.77 RA)
6 - 3
TOR 59-63 (3.95 RPG / 4.39 RA)
WINNER: BOS wins 6-3 TARGET: BOS 5 - 4 TOR (BOS) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
BOS000002103610
TOR012000000310

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs6.4
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff26
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak4L

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

BOS Season Quality

Record64-55
Win%0.538
Run Diff81
RD/Game0.681

TOR Season Quality

Record58-63
Win%0.479
Run Diff-56
RD/Game-0.463

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9543; margin adjustment: -0.4008; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Masataka YoshidaDH 7824163 0.261 4250.331 53210 20 0.667 0.281 0.340 0.412 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 111441126 0.286 15610.324 55000 00 0.000 0.286 0.309 0.530 OK
Adley RutschmanC 131 0.333 000.600 55212 01 0.400 0.251 0.336 0.404 OK
Willson Contreras1B 106371103 0.278 23700.387 53000 11 0.000 0.209 0.300 0.382 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 114433111 0.256 21640.333 54113 10 0.250 0.241 0.334 0.513 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 10736687 0.238 11510.307 54111 11 0.250 0.236 0.293 0.366 OK
Jarren DuranLF 11042485 0.200 16540.260 55110 01 0.200 0.205 0.261 0.372 OK
Andruw MonasterioSS 7522861 0.268 6310.327 44210 02 0.500 0.284 0.349 0.431 OK
Nick Sogard2B 238121 0.259 030.381 44100 01 0.250 0.235 0.357 0.349 OK
TEAM TOTALS 433710 66 57 0.270

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Charles McAdoo3B 10295 0.172 250.219 55100 01 0.200 0.177 0.235 0.371 OK
Brett BatemanRF 5226 0.273 030.333 54100 10 0.250 0.260 0.320 0.361 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 111418109 0.261 7460.333 54200 10 0.500 0.240 0.307 0.357 OK
Alejandro KirkC 4415340 0.261 4190.326 54100 10 0.250 0.306 0.364 0.392 OK
Kazuma OkamotoDH 11542796 0.225 24700.299 55111 00 0.200 0.207 0.272 0.372 OK
Ernie Clement2B 118455128 0.281 9400.305 54211 11 0.500 0.219 0.239 0.326 OK
Jesús SánchezLF 8223563 0.268 8320.318 44111 01 0.250 0.249 0.301 0.409 OK
Myles StrawCF 8820746 0.222 3180.266 44000 00 0.000 0.215 0.260 0.329 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 10936086 0.239 8470.284 43100 00 0.333 0.242 0.264 0.369 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423710 33 43 0.270

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ranger SuarezStarter 20100.23.41 1.2089.7108 5.08331191 5.0 1 3
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 4039.21.38 1.14811.550 1.11000120 1.1 1 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 4543.32.08 0.90110.249 1.01001020 1.0 0 0
Justin SlatenMiddle Reliever 3524.55.88 1.71414.038 0.20000013 0.2 0 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 33.10.00 1.29017.46 1.00002114 1.0 1 0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
José SorianoStarter 14.22.14 1.6676.43 5.252235109 5.2 5 2
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 5557.71.40 1.07511.976 1.02111023 1.0 0 1
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 5650.51.78 1.2485.028 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Spencer MilesMiddle Reliever 3569.73.49 1.2209.372 1.12331128 1.1 1 3

Game Summary

BOS wins 6-3


Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals

CHC 71-50 (5.24 RPG / 4.29 RA)
4 - 3
WAS 59-63 (5.37 RPG / 5.24 RA)
WINNER: CHC wins 4-3 TARGET: CHC 4 - 3 WAS (CHC) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CHC00000400048
WAS00020001038

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.8
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff22
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CHC Season Quality

Record70-50
Win%0.583
Run Diff109
RD/Game0.908

WAS Season Quality

Record59-62
Win%0.488
Run Diff22
RD/Game0.182

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.8176; margin adjustment: -0.3434; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 118444128 0.288 27720.389 54110 11 0.250 0.279 0.357 0.559 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 101383105 0.274 20680.366 55000 01 0.000 0.258 0.332 0.488 OK
Alex BregmanDH 116462117 0.253 13540.343 54000 12 0.000 0.278 0.356 0.438 OK
Carson KellyC 8428074 0.264 7420.346 44100 00 0.250 0.271 0.329 0.363 OK
Michael Busch1B 117446110 0.247 13610.355 42100 11 0.500 0.249 0.329 0.365 OK
Nico Hoerner2B 116463122 0.263 7560.321 44111 00 0.250 0.310 0.358 0.426 OK
Tyrone TaylorLF 4133 0.231 000.333 44213 00 0.500 0.253 0.301 0.487 OK
Pedro Ramirez3B 4110933 0.303 2150.353 44000 02 0.000 0.298 0.350 0.456 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 11238782 0.212 15570.295 44210 00 0.500 0.218 0.303 0.359 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39358 44 37 0.229

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Dylan CrewsRF 6725756 0.218 10260.292 54111 11 0.250 0.194 0.239 0.365 OK
Andrés Chaparro1B 4410023 0.230 6280.325 55000 02 0.000 0.192 0.262 0.406 OK
Brady House3B 5720749 0.237 8270.290 55200 01 0.400 0.247 0.297 0.416 OK
CJ AbramsSS 117444127 0.286 29910.358 54000 12 0.000 0.246 0.295 0.489 OK
Harry FordC 13398 0.205 260.326 53000 20 0.000 0.211 0.307 0.438 OK
Andrew PinckneyLF 241 0.250 110.250 44111 02 0.250 0.189 0.201 0.399 OK
Jacob YoungCF 9632279 0.245 10410.305 43200 10 0.667 0.259 0.306 0.451 OK
Daylen LileDH 119454111 0.244 15610.295 44100 01 0.250 0.241 0.280 0.419 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 10634479 0.230 1340.315 43111 10 0.333 0.183 0.277 0.230 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41358 33 69 0.229

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
David PetersonStarter 735.94.26 1.3096.325 4.25333690 4.2 6 3
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 5348.12.62 1.28911.260 1.20000121 1.2 1 0
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 42.411.25 2.50015.04 1.02002127 1.0 1 0
Trent ThorntonMiddle Reliever 3433.62.68 1.1905.119 1.21001128 1.2 1 0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zak KentStarter 810.27.06 1.5697.99 3.08442470 3.0 4 4
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 3732.53.60 1.29210.237 2.00001127 2.0 1 0
Orlando RibaltaMiddle Reliever 3832.53.88 1.3238.932 2.00000125 2.0 1 0
Yovanny CruzMiddle Reliever 32.14.29 2.85712.93 2.00000125 2.0 1 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 4-3


Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox

CIN 57-61 (4.13 RPG / 4.75 RA)
3 - 6
CHW 61-57 (4.75 RPG / 4.45 RA)
WINNER: CHW wins 6-3 TARGET: CIN 4 - 5 CHW (CHW) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CIN00020100038
CHW20120100x613

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed5.2
Run Diff-7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

CIN Season Quality

Record57-61
Win%0.483
Run Diff-73
RD/Game-0.619

CHW Season Quality

Record61-57
Win%0.517
Run Diff36
RD/Game0.305

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.5523; margin adjustment: 0.232; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Elly De La CruzSS 98387106 0.274 20560.355 54100 12 0.250 0.232 0.312 0.466 OK
Sal StewartDH 117445114 0.256 25870.333 54100 10 0.250 0.253 0.321 0.464 OK
JJ BledayLF 8831571 0.225 20470.337 55000 01 0.000 0.197 0.311 0.404 OK
Eugenio Suárez3B 8630864 0.208 17440.286 43000 11 0.000 0.219 0.298 0.479 OK
Michael Toglia1B 121 0.500 000.500 44000 01 0.000 0.108 0.122 0.171 OK
Héctor RodríguezRF 6172 0.118 000.211 44311 00 0.750 0.143 0.223 0.222 OK
Jose TrevinoC 289122 0.242 4120.250 44111 01 0.250 0.204 0.216 0.373 OK
TJ FriedlCF 6420634 0.165 3110.251 44111 01 0.250 0.094 0.178 0.164 OK
Matt McLain2B 8930259 0.195 10280.293 43100 10 0.333 0.211 0.296 0.406 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39358 33 47 0.229

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam Antonacci2B 9733792 0.273 8350.364 54211 11 0.500 0.266 0.325 0.393 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 8329971 0.237 26540.369 55112 01 0.200 0.234 0.356 0.540 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 10431778 0.246 12570.308 54210 11 0.500 0.173 0.237 0.333 OK
Braden MontgomeryRF 5118342 0.230 4240.317 54211 11 0.500 0.226 0.311 0.368 OK
Colson Montgomery3B 11242290 0.213 26680.294 55100 02 0.200 0.212 0.275 0.430 OK
Chase MeidrothSS 112416114 0.274 11460.348 54000 10 0.000 0.276 0.352 0.434 OK
Tristan PetersLF 10631182 0.264 6400.323 44312 00 0.750 0.247 0.310 0.384 OK
Brenton DoyleCF 5144 0.286 000.286 44100 00 0.250 0.243 0.301 0.332 OK
Drew RomoC 4514318 0.126 5110.203 43110 10 0.333 0.126 0.186 0.221 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423713 66 56 0.351

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Rhett LowderStarter 2086.25.43 1.5317.673 4.1105553105 4.1 3 5
Emilio PagánMiddle Reliever 2725.44.25 1.14210.329 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Tejay AntoneMiddle Reliever 3833.13.26 1.1789.535 1.01110019 1.0 0 1
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 6050.33.22 1.4519.855 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Pierce JohnsonMiddle Reliever 3927.95.81 1.61310.031 0.11000114 0.1 1 0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Luis CastilloStarter 14.011.25 1.75011.25 5.15333496 5.1 4 3
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 4151.92.60 1.11813.276 1.12000123 1.1 1 0
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever 3951.53.32 1.3209.856 1.11000125 1.1 1 0
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever 4840.63.33 1.4539.844 1.00001117 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

CHW wins 6-3


Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers

CLE 59-62 (3.99 RPG / 4.21 RA)
3 - 5
DET 59-61 (4.58 RPG / 3.85 RA)
WINNER: DET wins 5-3 TARGET: CLE 3 - 5 DET (DET) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CLE21000000036
DET00000300256

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed6.0
Run Diff-15
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak3L

DET Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs7.2
Avg Allowed2.1
Run Diff51
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak3W

CLE Season Quality

Record58-62
Win%0.483
Run Diff-29
RD/Game-0.242

DET Season Quality

Record59-60
Win%0.496
Run Diff89
RD/Game0.748

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.1804; margin adjustment: 0.4958; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanCF 106377100 0.265 2220.359 43000 10 0.000 0.274 0.358 0.347 OK
Chase DeLauterDH 99377107 0.284 13570.358 44000 01 0.000 0.274 0.354 0.431 OK
Jo AdellRF 7244 0.167 120.344 44212 00 0.500 0.185 0.233 0.363 OK
Angel MartínezLF 7427264 0.235 12420.269 44110 01 0.250 0.248 0.268 0.417 OK
Rhys Hoskins1B 8725045 0.180 13370.304 44100 02 0.250 0.124 0.244 0.282 OK
Angel Genao2B 5197 0.368 120.429 44111 01 0.250 0.329 0.364 0.481 OK
Austin HedgesC 5415642 0.269 4180.333 44000 01 0.000 0.201 0.274 0.328 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 115404103 0.255 9500.317 33000 01 0.000 0.203 0.251 0.290 OK
Petey HalpinCF 4311425 0.219 270.250 33100 00 0.333 0.222 0.244 0.309 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34336 33 17 0.182

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gleyber TorresDH 6223059 0.257 7300.371 44110 02 0.250 0.249 0.352 0.369 OK
Dillon DinglerC 109415113 0.272 26800.336 44000 02 0.000 0.242 0.284 0.462 OK
Kevin McGonigle3B 114436126 0.289 12480.393 43110 10 0.333 0.308 0.405 0.465 OK
Hao-Yu Lee2B 6919552 0.267 6280.296 43113 10 0.333 0.183 0.217 0.303 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 11740792 0.226 20590.315 44000 03 0.000 0.291 0.373 0.439 OK
Ben MalgeriLF 184512 0.267 170.346 44100 01 0.250 0.275 0.360 0.404 OK
Max ClarkCF 104112 0.293 170.370 43110 10 0.333 0.261 0.311 0.412 OK
Javier BáezSS 3311633 0.284 2140.311 44112 01 0.250 0.290 0.320 0.382 OK
Corey JulksRF 000 0.000 000.000 33000 00 0.000 0.253 0.314 0.418
TEAM TOTALS 35326 55 39 0.188

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Foster GriffinStarter 14.011.25 2.25013.56 6.03332897 6.0 8 3
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 5050.32.50 1.17313.274 1.01000119 1.0 1 0
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 4532.83.84 1.52410.237 0.01000016 0.0 0 0
Colin HoldermanMiddle Reliever 4439.81.58 0.93010.245 1.01221013 1.0 0 2

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Framber ValdezStarter 23125.74.22 1.3847.4103 5.15331586 5.1 5 3
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 3429.83.62 1.27511.237 1.21000021 1.2 0 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 4842.73.16 1.6637.837 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Tyler HoltonMiddle Reliever 5146.73.28 1.4358.544 1.00000216 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

DET wins 5-3


Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

COL 48-73 (4.77 RPG / 5.73 RA)
3 - 4
ARI 64-58 (4.52 RPG / 4.43 RA)
WINNER: ARI wins 4-3 TARGET: COL 3 - 4 ARI (ARI) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
COL20010000034
ARI00000400x410

COL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed6.0
Run Diff-7
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

COL Season Quality

Record46-73
Win%0.387
Run Diff-119
RD/Game-1.000

ARI Season Quality

Record64-56
Win%0.533
Run Diff14
RD/Game0.117

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9403; margin adjustment: 0.3949; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyCF 99376114 0.303 13660.338 43000 11 0.000 0.322 0.351 0.549 OK
Cole CarriggSS 5017351 0.295 5300.379 44110 02 0.250 0.286 0.369 0.477 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 114412122 0.296 13580.371 44212 00 0.500 0.187 0.257 0.283 OK
Hunter GoodmanDH 110411104 0.253 34690.320 43000 11 0.000 0.248 0.305 0.534 OK
Mickey MoniakLF 8027775 0.271 19530.309 44000 00 0.000 0.206 0.254 0.425 OK
Willi Castro3B 10136395 0.262 13480.331 43000 11 0.000 0.258 0.317 0.421 OK
Zac VeenRF 000 0.000 000.000 44111 00 0.250 0.244 0.306 0.408
Connor Norby2B 120 0.000 000.333 43000 11 0.000 0.199 0.284 0.307
Brett SullivanC 5014735 0.238 5200.269 33000 01 0.000 0.172 0.207 0.337 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35314 33 47 0.129

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Geraldo PerdomoSS 116414101 0.244 9420.359 44200 01 0.500 0.259 0.367 0.409 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 117440106 0.241 17560.335 44100 01 0.250 0.219 0.295 0.505 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 9232699 0.304 8520.383 44100 00 0.250 0.288 0.355 0.434 OK
Ketel Marte2B 114462115 0.249 21660.309 44111 00 0.250 0.259 0.316 0.513 OK
Lars NootbaarDH 7233 0.130 010.286 43100 10 0.333 0.216 0.319 0.323 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 11439296 0.245 18580.324 44000 02 0.000 0.276 0.337 0.510 OK
Max KeplerLF 319820 0.204 2150.273 44211 00 0.500 0.177 0.255 0.285 OK
Tim Tawa1B 5717441 0.236 6260.284 44111 00 0.250 0.254 0.307 0.397 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 5417951 0.285 2150.333 33111 01 0.333 0.262 0.309 0.423 OK
TEAM TOTALS 353410 44 15 0.294

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryan FeltnerStarter 1779.95.86 1.4896.659 4.210441593 4.2 5 4
Jordan RomanoMiddle Reliever 1110.23.53 1.66712.414 1.20000019 1.2 0 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 4744.06.14 1.81810.049 1.20000021 1.2 0 0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Merrill KellyStarter 21117.94.96 1.4936.180 5.143342105 5.1 2 3
Brandyn GarciaMiddle Reliever 3626.82.01 0.78412.136 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever 5042.93.36 1.2359.043 1.00000313 1.0 3 0
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 4840.83.09 1.2257.132 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 4840.42.90 1.11412.355 0.20000115 0.2 1 0

Game Summary

ARI wins 4-3


Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants

HOU 62-60 (4.58 RPG / 4.8 RA)
6 - 2
SF 51-71 (4.1 RPG / 4.58 RA)
WINNER: HOU wins 6-2 TARGET: HOU 5 - 4 SF (HOU) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
HOU200030010610
SF00000101025

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

SF Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.1
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-12
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

HOU Season Quality

Record61-59
Win%0.508
Run Diff-25
RD/Game-0.208

SF Season Quality

Record50-70
Win%0.417
Run Diff-61
RD/Game-0.508

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4356; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 7228984 0.291 13380.349 55111 00 0.200 0.192 0.241 0.319 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 118428139 0.325 35870.439 55311 02 0.600 0.274 0.389 0.483 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 113414104 0.251 15620.346 55100 01 0.200 0.264 0.327 0.384 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 8284 0.143 120.273 55211 01 0.400 0.209 0.273 0.339 OK
LaMonte Wade Jr.1B 287517 0.227 2150.348 53000 22 0.000 0.253 0.359 0.385 OK
Cam SmithRF 11038988 0.226 16430.296 55111 02 0.200 0.283 0.336 0.541 OK
Taylor TrammellLF 5816338 0.233 7200.317 43111 00 0.333 0.234 0.315 0.431 OK
Nick Allen2B 4610827 0.250 1110.297 42011 10 0.000 0.251 0.298 0.319 OK
Christian VázquezC 6820243 0.213 5230.263 44100 00 0.250 0.209 0.259 0.300 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423710 66 38 0.270

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jung Hoo LeeRF 108411123 0.299 8440.336 55200 01 0.400 0.231 0.260 0.402 OK
Willy AdamesSS 11443798 0.224 18470.283 54000 12 0.000 0.235 0.295 0.408 OK
Bryce Eldridge1B 7727167 0.247 12290.341 41000 30 0.000 0.235 0.323 0.416 OK
Rafael DeversDH 119444110 0.248 23630.324 43000 11 0.000 0.239 0.323 0.450 OK
Victor BericotoLF 226217 0.274 490.286 43111 11 0.333 0.268 0.285 0.487 OK
Drew GilbertCF 8824460 0.246 5250.314 44011 01 0.000 0.244 0.306 0.398 OK
Osleivis Basabe2B 123911 0.282 380.293 44000 00 0.000 0.274 0.281 0.505 OK
Drew CavanaughC 266616 0.242 050.342 44100 01 0.250 0.232 0.321 0.289 OK
Christian Koss3B 246611 0.167 020.191 44100 00 0.250 0.174 0.200 0.235 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38325 22 67 0.156

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryan KingStarter 4743.54.34 1.5408.340 5.03114496 5.0 4 1
Josh HaderMiddle Reliever 2726.30.68 0.64613.038 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Steven OkertMiddle Reliever 5850.42.50 1.01210.760 1.21112032 1.2 0 1
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 4437.84.76 1.50813.155 1.01000218 1.0 2 0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Adrian HouserStarter 2492.44.97 1.4836.567 4.08553398 4.0 3 5
Dylan SmithMiddle Reliever 2620.33.55 1.47812.027 1.11000220 1.1 2 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 4233.93.45 1.3868.833 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
JT BrubakerMiddle Reliever 3752.03.63 1.2886.437 1.21110127 1.2 1 1
Sam HentgesMiddle Reliever 3322.33.23 1.92812.531 1.00000216 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

HOU wins 6-2


Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers

KC 49-72 (4.14 RPG / 5.07 RA)
3 - 5
LAD 72-48 (5.02 RPG / 3.85 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 5-3 TARGET: KC 4 - 5 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
1234567891011RH
KC0101000001038
LAD1000100001256

KC Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed5.7
Run Diff-16
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak3L

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-15
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2W

KC Season Quality

Record49-71
Win%0.408
Run Diff-111
RD/Game-0.925

LAD Season Quality

Record71-48
Win%0.597
Run Diff139
RD/Game1.168

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.5413; margin adjustment: 0.6473; applied: True

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Loftin2B 8124961 0.245 5350.329 64111 22 0.250 0.227 0.309 0.368 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 101396112 0.283 13410.352 65000 12 0.000 0.259 0.325 0.387 OK
Jac Caglianone1B 111399106 0.266 21530.318 55200 02 0.400 0.289 0.330 0.544 OK
Salvador PerezC 11143093 0.216 16510.262 55111 00 0.200 0.210 0.241 0.346 OK
Starling MarteRF 5414736 0.245 2140.302 55000 01 0.000 0.203 0.245 0.328 OK
Carter JensenDH 11039288 0.224 16550.302 55100 02 0.200 0.200 0.291 0.384 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 10533679 0.235 6350.334 54211 11 0.500 0.135 0.228 0.240 OK
Tyler TolbertCF 348828 0.318 360.371 54000 02 0.000 0.293 0.353 0.455 OK
Josh Rojas3B 266816 0.235 180.257 54100 10 0.250 0.126 0.158 0.194 OK
TEAM TOTALS 47418 33 512 0.195

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 109419121 0.289 26700.392 55000 04 0.000 0.286 0.383 0.518 OK
Andy PagesCF 117455123 0.270 19750.337 54000 13 0.000 0.280 0.340 0.448 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 116439134 0.305 15550.380 54212 10 0.500 0.263 0.334 0.379 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 11039495 0.241 11540.333 53010 21 0.000 0.220 0.309 0.414 OK
Mookie BettsSS 8132076 0.238 14380.288 54000 12 0.000 0.264 0.309 0.456 OK
Max Muncy3B 10835989 0.248 22560.341 55212 00 0.400 0.242 0.324 0.432 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 8329273 0.250 11410.313 55110 02 0.200 0.169 0.228 0.301 OK
Hunter FeducciaC 5123 0.250 000.308 54000 10 0.000 0.163 0.227 0.256 OK
Miguel Rojas2B 6816447 0.287 3180.313 55111 00 0.200 0.284 0.320 0.414 OK
TEAM TOTALS 45396 55 612 0.154

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Daniel Lynch IVStarter 4742.32.77 1.1357.937 5.23224896 5.2 8 2
Alex LangeMiddle Reliever 4542.76.74 1.71010.349 1.01000020 1.0 0 0
Steven CruzMiddle Reliever 4239.94.74 1.35311.350 1.20000221 1.2 2 0
John SchreiberMiddle Reliever 4836.74.41 1.6628.133 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Nate PearsonMiddle Reliever 76.20.00 0.8068.76 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
Craig KimbrelReliever 000.00 0.0000.00 0.11221120 0.1 1 2
Jose CuasReliever 88.32.17 1.44611.911 0.1111107 0.1 0 1

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Eric LauerStarter 1054.53.80 1.1385.131 5.161136109 5.1 6 1
Edwin DíazMiddle Reliever 1210.37.86 2.03914.016 2.11110137 2.1 1 1
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 5143.72.47 1.00712.460 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Evan PhillipsMiddle Reliever 148.97.08 1.79812.112 0.20000111 0.2 1 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 5332.83.57 1.49415.456 1.10001221 1.1 2 0
Jack DreyerMiddle Reliever 5041.23.71 1.18912.256 0.11111113 0.1 1 1

Game Summary

LAD wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 11)


Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres

MIL 74-47 (4.89 RPG / 3.82 RA)
1 - 3
SD 65-57 (4.28 RPG / 4.27 RA)
WINNER: SD wins 3-1 TARGET: MIL 1 - 3 SD (SD) Confidence: 51.0% fallback_enhanced
123456789RH
MIL00000010017
SD00001200x35

MIL Recent Form

Win%0
Avg Runs4.493179433368311
Avg Allowed4.493179433368311
Run Diff?
Off Trend?
Def Trend?
Streak?

SD Recent Form

Win%0
Avg Runs4.493179433368311
Avg Allowed4.493179433368311
Run Diff?
Off Trend?
Def Trend?
Streak?

MIL Season Quality

Record?-?
Win%?
Run Diff?
RD/Game?

SD Season Quality

Record?-?
Win%?
Run Diff?
RD/Game?

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -; margin adjustment: -; applied: False

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson ChourioLF 8434698 0.283 17480.346 43100 10 0.333 0.255 0.333 0.507 OK
Brice Turang2B 111435120 0.276 16750.363 44000 02 0.000 0.254 0.330 0.403 OK
Andrew Vaughn1B 7020462 0.304 5340.382 44100 00 0.250 0.226 0.301 0.368 OK
Jake BauersRF 10335294 0.267 20650.370 44200 00 0.500 0.268 0.373 0.503 OK
William ContrerasDH 109420109 0.260 11580.328 44000 01 0.000 0.234 0.308 0.347 OK
Gary SánchezC 6016136 0.224 9270.367 44100 01 0.250 0.159 0.303 0.337 OK
Brandon LockridgeCF 308725 0.287 0120.361 43000 12 0.000 0.291 0.358 0.345 OK
David HamiltonSS 8224557 0.233 3160.304 44000 02 0.000 0.236 0.305 0.332 OK
Joey Ortiz3B 8224257 0.236 5280.301 44211 01 0.500 0.250 0.311 0.388 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36347 11 29 0.206

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Luis RengifoLF 248126 0.321 3120.415 44110 02 0.250 0.242 0.310 0.349 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 6823050 0.217 3180.305 44000 01 0.000 0.211 0.272 0.267 OK
Manny Machado3B 11843794 0.215 23700.299 43112 12 0.333 0.248 0.323 0.376 OK
Ty France1B 8930188 0.292 17510.343 33000 00 0.000 0.290 0.332 0.477 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 117458113 0.247 19620.295 33100 00 0.333 0.307 0.342 0.567 OK
Austin HaysRF 263 0.500 130.500 33000 01 0.000 0.263 0.282 0.404 OK
Gavin SheetsDH 11133070 0.212 15440.314 33211 00 0.667 0.207 0.314 0.394 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 11439487 0.221 9410.316 33000 02 0.000 0.217 0.310 0.288 OK
Freddy FerminC 5917835 0.197 4160.271 33000 00 0.000 0.243 0.295 0.386 OK
TEAM TOTALS 30295 33 18 0.172

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dustin MayStarter 16.03.00 1.0007.55 5.14331585 5.1 5 3
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 4645.11.80 0.82010.653 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 4944.62.22 1.1219.748 1.20000221 1.2 2 0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Robbie RayStarter 15.07.20 2.4003.62 5.24001792 5.2 7 0
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 4847.30.95 0.86717.592 1.00000118 1.0 1 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 5555.43.25 1.20912.376 1.1211119 1.1 1 1
Jeremiah EstradaMiddle Reliever 2822.63.98 1.32713.133 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Yuki MatsuiMiddle Reliever 3439.72.72 1.33510.948 0.00000022 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

SD wins 3-1


New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

NYM 53-69 (4.18 RPG / 4.57 RA)
1 - 5
ATL 73-49 (4.86 RPG / 3.89 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 5-1 TARGET: NYM 2 - 3 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
NYM00000001018
ATL00000041x59

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff8
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff20
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

NYM Season Quality

Record53-68
Win%0.438
Run Diff-44
RD/Game-0.364

ATL Season Quality

Record72-49
Win%0.595
Run Diff116
RD/Game0.959

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.0924; margin adjustment: 0.4588; applied: True

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
A.J. EwingLF 7928775 0.261 7280.332 52000 21 0.000 0.217 0.282 0.330 OK
Francisco LindorSS 6324760 0.243 11300.330 55000 00 0.000 0.262 0.342 0.458 OK
Bo Bichette3B 117470123 0.262 11600.307 55200 00 0.400 0.236 0.293 0.345 OK
Carson BengeRF 112429116 0.270 13470.333 54200 11 0.500 0.281 0.334 0.418 OK
Luis Robert Jr.CF 4114631 0.212 5160.284 54000 12 0.000 0.238 0.292 0.352 OK
Jared Young1B 6620052 0.260 6220.335 44211 00 0.500 0.304 0.357 0.446 OK
Francisco AlvarezDH 8026365 0.247 12280.337 44200 00 0.500 0.240 0.332 0.412 OK
Brett Baty2B 10133473 0.219 8380.282 43000 11 0.000 0.199 0.258 0.336 OK
Luis TorrensC 6419245 0.234 4270.300 44000 00 0.000 0.164 0.230 0.301 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41358 11 55 0.229

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Drake BaldwinDH 97375102 0.272 20600.360 43211 10 0.667 0.270 0.342 0.430 OK
Matt Olson1B 120464123 0.265 35740.341 44112 00 0.250 0.252 0.324 0.630 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 120458119 0.260 20640.316 44110 00 0.250 0.240 0.306 0.440 OK
Michael Harris IICF 114435128 0.294 20670.322 44100 00 0.250 0.293 0.319 0.436 OK
Mauricio DubónSS 114425114 0.268 10610.315 44100 00 0.250 0.288 0.330 0.416 OK
Lane ThomasLF 491 0.111 010.200 44212 01 0.500 0.229 0.314 0.384 OK
Austin Riley3B 11942593 0.219 14570.295 44000 00 0.000 0.218 0.282 0.388 OK
Sean MurphyC 7253 0.120 000.120 44000 02 0.000 0.157 0.166 0.266 OK
Jim JarvisSS 339922 0.222 1110.274 32110 11 0.500 0.217 0.265 0.312 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35339 55 24 0.273

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zach ThorntonStarter 738.42.58 1.0946.327 5.22002485 5.2 4 0
Kodai SengaMiddle Reliever 1645.18.58 1.79611.457 1.05440026 1.0 0 4
Daniel DuarteMiddle Reliever 1215.71.15 0.8287.513 1.12110023 1.1 0 1

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tyler MahleStarter 16.00.00 0.83313.59 5.260043105 5.2 3 0
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 4341.83.01 1.19610.649 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 5647.82.26 0.83712.667 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Didier FuentesMiddle Reliever 4246.32.72 1.18812.866 1.11110119 1.1 1 1
Tyler KinleyMiddle Reliever 4735.44.58 1.44110.240 0.01001013 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 5-1


Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals

PHI 64-58 (4.39 RPG / 4.44 RA)
6 - 3
STL 61-60 (4.37 RPG / 4.38 RA)
WINNER: PHI wins 6-3 TARGET: PHI 5 - 4 STL (PHI) Confidence: 51.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
PHI000033000610
STL00003000034

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff11
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

STL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

PHI Season Quality

Record64-57
Win%0.529
Run Diff-1
RD/Game-0.008

STL Season Quality

Record60-60
Win%0.500
Run Diff-7
RD/Game-0.058

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0789; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 113421105 0.249 34680.370 55213 01 0.400 0.289 0.413 0.555 OK
Trea TurnerSS 114478120 0.251 17470.298 55000 00 0.000 0.255 0.306 0.407 OK
Bryce HarperRF 119420106 0.252 25710.371 55110 03 0.200 0.243 0.391 0.485 OK
Luis Arraez2B 8367 0.194 150.211 55110 00 0.200 0.230 0.264 0.327 OK
Bryson Stott3B 114394105 0.266 8520.342 44000 01 0.000 0.288 0.382 0.429 OK
Brandon MarshLF 114423116 0.274 16520.316 44210 00 0.500 0.217 0.268 0.326 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 8629766 0.222 8380.295 43210 10 0.667 0.211 0.261 0.321 OK
Alec Bohm1B 11442697 0.228 13620.290 42000 21 0.000 0.232 0.298 0.349 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 10632283 0.258 2290.307 44213 00 0.500 0.250 0.305 0.357 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403710 66 36 0.270

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 111434106 0.244 16440.348 43000 12 0.000 0.228 0.329 0.352 OK
Iván HerreraDH 117442108 0.244 12480.353 43112 10 0.333 0.296 0.350 0.451 OK
Alec Burleson1B 116445127 0.285 19800.350 44110 00 0.250 0.255 0.330 0.485 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 114442126 0.285 21780.344 43000 12 0.000 0.265 0.316 0.460 OK
Nathan ChurchCF 9230373 0.241 9360.285 44000 01 0.000 0.186 0.235 0.275 OK
Masyn WinnSS 10939697 0.245 4490.317 44000 02 0.000 0.268 0.332 0.364 OK
César Prieto3B 10260 0.000 000.000 44111 02 0.250 0.128 0.139 0.180
José FermínLF 7921954 0.247 5270.316 33000 01 0.000 0.241 0.328 0.341 OK
Jimmy CrooksC 3810519 0.181 4120.237 33100 00 0.333 0.184 0.229 0.323 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34314 33 310 0.129

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zack WheelerStarter 19108.72.73 0.99410.9132 6.03333797 6.0 7 3
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 4340.41.34 0.94113.159 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 5041.24.37 1.48111.151 1.01000010 1.0 0 0
Jonathan BowlanMiddle Reliever 4538.73.02 1.03412.353 1.00000214 1.0 2 0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle LeahyStarter 22111.43.47 1.3558.099 5.05331390 5.0 3 3
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 4946.83.27 1.1759.449 1.03331126 1.0 1 3
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 5445.94.12 1.39410.453 1.01000120 1.0 1 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever 5139.15.06 1.68811.349 1.01001020 1.0 0 0
Caleb FergusonMiddle Reliever 22.30.00 0.87011.73 1.00000116 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

PHI wins 6-3


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins

PIT 58-64 (4.95 RPG / 4.84 RA)
2 - 5
MIA 62-59 (4.41 RPG / 4.22 RA)
WINNER: MIA wins 5-2 TARGET: PIT 2 - 5 MIA (MIA) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
PIT00020000024
MIA00210200x57

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.0
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-16
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff13
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak3W

PIT Season Quality

Record58-63
Win%0.479
Run Diff19
RD/Game0.157

MIA Season Quality

Record61-59
Win%0.508
Run Diff17
RD/Game0.142

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2633; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake MangumCF 8731395 0.304 4270.351 44000 01 0.000 0.289 0.328 0.446 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 109430107 0.249 25740.317 44000 00 0.000 0.220 0.289 0.470 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 118432116 0.269 15630.380 43000 11 0.000 0.229 0.328 0.368 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 8227272 0.265 10370.372 44212 01 0.500 0.212 0.316 0.331 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 111426128 0.300 4510.351 44000 01 0.000 0.220 0.255 0.292 OK
Ronny SimonDH 6206 0.300 020.364 43210 10 0.667 0.288 0.347 0.358 OK
Esmerlyn ValdezRF 4815236 0.237 11300.369 44000 01 0.000 0.216 0.366 0.457 OK
Jacob GonzalezSS 194910 0.204 150.200 33000 02 0.000 0.241 0.279 0.350 OK
Henry DavisC 6720836 0.173 8300.261 32000 11 0.000 0.176 0.246 0.279 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34314 22 38 0.129

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Xavier Edwards2B 118437124 0.284 6440.364 43000 12 0.000 0.252 0.331 0.345 OK
Otto LopezSS 116466148 0.318 9530.350 44111 00 0.250 0.274 0.305 0.395 OK
Griffin Conine1B 5115040 0.267 12260.349 43111 10 0.333 0.276 0.353 0.549 OK
Heriberto HernándezLF 8729065 0.224 16440.287 44000 01 0.000 0.189 0.246 0.337 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 11238078 0.205 6280.325 43000 12 0.000 0.254 0.358 0.381 OK
Owen CaissieRF 8524155 0.228 12510.288 44100 02 0.250 0.204 0.273 0.386 OK
Leo Jiménez3B 4813529 0.215 2130.291 44112 00 0.250 0.137 0.200 0.194 OK
Joe MackC 7021249 0.231 11340.285 33210 00 0.667 0.215 0.264 0.357 OK
Javier Sanoja3B 9130283 0.275 4420.306 33111 00 0.333 0.298 0.330 0.445 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34317 55 37 0.226

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Carmen MlodzinskiStarter 2694.33.63 1.4007.377 5.05332586 5.0 5 3
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 11.00.00 2.0000.00 1.11221024 1.1 0 2
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 4740.03.82 1.32516.975 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 4946.43.49 1.12111.660 0.21000121 0.2 1 0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Janson JunkStarter 1679.84.74 1.3917.062 4.22222582 4.2 5 2
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 4035.76.30 1.37312.951 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 5043.64.95 1.69711.656 1.00001210 1.0 2 0
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever 4843.53.31 1.21812.460 1.00000019 1.0 0 0
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 34.06.75 1.2509.04 1.1100005 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

MIA wins 5-2


Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees

SEA 56-64 (3.86 RPG / 4.04 RA)
1 - 2
NYY 67-52 (4.5 RPG / 3.78 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 2-1 TARGET: SEA 1 - 2 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 65.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
SEA00000000116
NYY00000000225

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs2.3
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-25
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak5L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs2.9
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-2
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

SEA Season Quality

Record56-64
Win%0.467
Run Diff-22
RD/Game-0.183

NYY Season Quality

Record67-52
Win%0.563
Run Diff85
RD/Game0.714

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8874; margin adjustment: 0.3727; applied: True

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardDH 7274 0.148 000.148 44100 01 0.250 0.215 0.327 0.311 OK
Cole Young2B 120438115 0.263 14520.321 44100 00 0.250 0.239 0.281 0.346 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 112413114 0.276 15500.368 43000 11 0.000 0.217 0.285 0.389 OK
Dominic CanzoneRF 10331078 0.252 18490.324 44000 01 0.000 0.231 0.296 0.420 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 108425109 0.256 18510.320 44200 00 0.500 0.239 0.298 0.390 OK
Josh Naylor1B 111430113 0.263 10420.328 43211 00 0.667 0.237 0.300 0.393 OK
Brendan Donovan3B 2810026 0.260 380.353 44000 00 0.000 0.214 0.270 0.324 OK
Cal RaleighC 8631450 0.159 12430.264 33000 00 0.000 0.134 0.231 0.252 OK
Colt EmersonSS 6721742 0.194 8230.250 33000 02 0.000 0.182 0.228 0.290 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34326 11 15 0.188

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 9433472 0.216 12450.306 44100 00 0.250 0.237 0.304 0.426 OK
Ben RiceDH 111414106 0.256 31710.352 44000 01 0.000 0.233 0.334 0.488 OK
Spencer JonesRF 4312025 0.208 5150.296 43000 12 0.000 0.203 0.296 0.378 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 6236 0.261 120.320 43112 10 0.333 0.259 0.294 0.476 OK
Heliot RamosLF 6212 0.095 000.240 33000 02 0.000 0.200 0.248 0.335 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 10737983 0.219 17470.295 33210 00 0.667 0.211 0.300 0.406 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 8825355 0.217 10300.279 33000 01 0.000 0.215 0.291 0.352 OK
Austin WellsC 8323742 0.177 8170.271 33000 00 0.000 0.224 0.298 0.347 OK
George Lombard Jr.SS 6216 0.286 220.375 33100 00 0.333 0.261 0.343 0.417 OK
TEAM TOTALS 31295 22 26 0.172

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryce MillerStarter 1476.93.16 0.9759.279 6.02221590 6.0 5 2
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 4440.83.53 1.20114.867 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
José A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 5343.43.94 1.5218.541 0.11000014 0.1 0 0
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever 5642.93.99 1.58510.751 0.21001015 0.2 0 0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Will WarrenStarter 23109.14.37 1.4309.4114 5.03000478 5.0 4 0
David BednarMiddle Reliever 4949.42.73 1.11310.960 1.11000020 1.1 0 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 5536.73.92 1.79815.262 1.11000120 1.1 1 0
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 6148.91.84 1.39113.473 1.11111014 1.1 0 1

Game Summary

NYY wins 2-1


Tampa Bay Rays @ Oakland Athletics

TB 74-46 (4.58 RPG / 4.06 RA)
4 - 2
OAK 47-74 (4.33 RPG / 5.82 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 4-2 TARGET: TB 2 - 4 OAK (OAK) Confidence: 51.0% fallback_enhanced
123456789RH
TB11020000047
OAK20000000025

TB Recent Form

Win%0
Avg Runs4.491080797481637
Avg Allowed4.491080797481637
Run Diff?
Off Trend?
Def Trend?
Streak?

OAK Recent Form

Win%0
Avg Runs4.491080797481637
Avg Allowed4.491080797481637
Run Diff?
Off Trend?
Def Trend?
Streak?

TB Season Quality

Record?-?
Win%?
Run Diff?
RD/Game?

OAK Season Quality

Record?-?
Win%?
Run Diff?
RD/Game?

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -; margin adjustment: -; applied: False

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 113444135 0.304 17680.373 53110 20 0.333 0.320 0.362 0.554 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 115432124 0.287 15730.374 54211 10 0.500 0.280 0.353 0.407 OK
Junior Caminero3B 118447124 0.277 35760.370 53112 21 0.333 0.236 0.330 0.573 OK
Liam HicksC 7215 0.238 160.407 55211 00 0.400 0.248 0.323 0.370 OK
Victor Mesa Jr.RF 4615133 0.219 10210.283 44100 00 0.250 0.248 0.296 0.530 OK
Jonny DeLucaLF 6621859 0.271 8340.303 44000 02 0.000 0.287 0.315 0.472 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 9934370 0.204 13360.283 44000 02 0.000 0.207 0.274 0.331 OK
Richie Palacios2B 8624558 0.237 5340.338 43000 10 0.000 0.280 0.384 0.410 OK
Taylor WallsSS 9028461 0.215 2280.305 44000 01 0.000 0.240 0.321 0.493 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40347 44 66 0.206

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Donovan WaltonSS 19377 0.189 040.388 43100 10 0.333 0.253 0.331 0.402 OK
Tyler SoderstromDH 10738895 0.245 19560.338 43000 00 0.000 0.233 0.315 0.478 OK
Zack Gelof2B 6523565 0.277 12310.328 44111 01 0.250 0.253 0.290 0.453 OK
Carlos CortesLF 8624062 0.258 7300.332 44000 01 0.000 0.224 0.296 0.357 OK
Lawrence ButlerRF 10531565 0.206 8320.293 44111 01 0.250 0.202 0.275 0.371 OK
Henry BolteCF 7324965 0.261 5220.331 44100 01 0.250 0.253 0.296 0.364 OK
Max Muncy3B 5517438 0.218 5210.287 44000 02 0.000 0.110 0.169 0.215 OK
Tommy White1B 228621 0.244 010.261 33100 01 0.333 0.223 0.242 0.256 OK
Brian ServenC 8235 0.217 250.250 33000 01 0.000 0.203 0.240 0.369 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34325 22 18 0.156

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Drew RasmussenStarter 22123.42.77 0.9169.5130 6.14220697 6.1 6 2
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 4845.41.59 0.85910.151 1.00000216 1.0 2 0
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 5147.32.28 0.9518.243 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Garrett CleavingerMiddle Reliever 4231.03.77 1.41913.948 0.21000013 0.2 0 0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack PerkinsStarter 2872.07.50 1.54211.592 4.05445385 4.0 3 4
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 5542.24.48 1.94314.970 1.00000020 1.0 0 0
Elvis AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 3632.25.59 1.42912.946 1.00000015 1.0 0 0
Luis MedinaMiddle Reliever 3848.73.70 1.47811.663 1.11000020 1.1 0 0
José SuarezMiddle Reliever 3333.85.59 1.4799.636 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Scott BlewettMiddle Reliever 57.53.60 1.6003.63 0.21001215 0.2 2 0

Game Summary

TB wins 4-2


Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels

TEX 60-60 (4.12 RPG / 4.38 RA)
5 - 3
LAA 46-74 (4.07 RPG / 4.84 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 5-3 TARGET: TEX 5 - 4 LAA (TEX) Confidence: 52.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
TEX020010002511
LAA00000000338

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff0
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs2.2
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff-18
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TEX Season Quality

Record60-59
Win%0.504
Run Diff-30
RD/Game-0.252

LAA Season Quality

Record45-74
Win%0.378
Run Diff-94
RD/Game-0.790

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6041; margin adjustment: -0.2537; applied: True

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc PedersonDH 10731178 0.251 22450.341 53100 10 0.333 0.270 0.365 0.628 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 114435121 0.278 13470.344 55111 01 0.200 0.295 0.347 0.499 OK
Corey SeagerSS 6022443 0.192 11280.293 54000 11 0.000 0.195 0.278 0.361 OK
Ezequiel Duran3B 109383104 0.272 13640.327 54112 02 0.250 0.268 0.329 0.428 OK
Jarred KelenicLF 592 0.222 010.364 55210 02 0.400 0.230 0.317 0.313 OK
Jake Burger1B 11542199 0.235 19680.296 44212 00 0.500 0.217 0.278 0.340 OK
Evan CarterCF 10028454 0.190 8310.298 44000 02 0.000 0.149 0.241 0.240 OK
Elias DíazC 3912029 0.242 3150.258 44210 00 0.500 0.153 0.173 0.282 OK
Nicky Lopez2B 6217950 0.279 1200.319 44200 01 0.500 0.204 0.237 0.283 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413711 55 29 0.297

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Wade MecklerLF 5717754 0.305 3200.363 55000 03 0.000 0.295 0.349 0.402 OK
Mike TroutCF 10136285 0.235 20420.384 44100 02 0.250 0.212 0.351 0.435 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 99367100 0.272 7420.348 44100 02 0.250 0.244 0.329 0.357 OK
Zach NetoDH 117466105 0.225 20520.309 44000 02 0.000 0.208 0.271 0.381 OK
Moisés BallesterosC 8294 0.138 000.167 43110 10 0.333 0.189 0.251 0.284 OK
Vaughn Grissom2B 7526868 0.254 7460.312 44210 01 0.500 0.245 0.287 0.366 OK
Josh LoweRF 7120842 0.202 8220.261 44213 01 0.500 0.198 0.276 0.320 OK
Oswald PerazaSS 8929067 0.231 7240.273 44000 01 0.000 0.215 0.240 0.320 OK
Denzer Guzman3B 4215535 0.226 5160.277 43100 10 0.333 0.117 0.175 0.187 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37358 33 212 0.229

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cal QuantrillStarter 2463.83.67 1.2236.143 5.05002793 5.0 7 0
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 4251.21.41 0.7039.856 1.10000121 1.1 1 0
Peyton GrayMiddle Reliever 3940.53.78 1.38310.748 1.00000316 1.0 3 0
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever 64.54.00 2.22210.05 1.23330130 1.2 1 3

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
George KlassenStarter 38.27.68 3.0499.99 3.07331676 3.0 6 3
Ben JoyceMiddle Reliever 33.00.00 0.6679.03 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Samy Natera Jr.Middle Reliever 2223.52.30 0.93616.142 2.00000025 2.0 0 0
José FerminMiddle Reliever 3734.53.65 1.47812.548 2.01000224 2.0 2 0
Luke MurphyMiddle Reliever 54.44.09 2.0458.24 1.02221123 1.0 1 2

Game Summary

TEX wins 5-3