| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW @ BOS | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | BOS | BOS | BOS wins 4-3 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| DET @ SEA | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 | DET | DET | DET wins 3-1 | 67% | fallback_enhanced |
| LAA @ BAL | 2 - 4 | 2 - 4 | BAL | BAL | BAL wins 4-2 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| MIA @ ATL | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 4-3 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| MIN @ KC | 5 - 3 | 5 - 3 | MIN | MIN | MIN wins 5-3 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| NYM @ CLE | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 | NYM | NYM | NYM wins 3-2 | 66% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| OAK @ CIN | 2 - 6 | 2 - 6 | CIN | CIN | CIN wins 6-2 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| PIT @ MIL | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 5-3 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| SD @ ARI | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 | ARI | ARI | ARI wins 5-3 | 67% | fallback_enhanced |
| TOR @ CHC | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | CHC | CHC | CHC wins 4-3 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| WAS @ PHI | 3 - 6 | 3 - 6 | PHI | PHI | PHI wins 6-3 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| BOS | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 9 |
Quality edge: 0.3673; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 109 | 402 | 109 | 0.271 | 9 | 40 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.235 | 0.309 | 0.371 | OK |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1B | 78 | 278 | 67 | 0.241 | 24 | 51 | 0.375 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.358 | 0.519 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 111 | 414 | 99 | 0.239 | 24 | 67 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.227 | 0.322 | 0.484 | OK |
| Randal Grichuk | DH | 60 | 132 | 36 | 0.273 | 9 | 22 | 0.309 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.187 | 0.224 | 0.376 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 107 | 402 | 86 | 0.214 | 25 | 63 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.198 | 0.268 | 0.379 | OK |
| Joey Bart | C | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.268 | 0.341 | |
| Brenton Doyle | CF | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0.333 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.152 | 0.229 | 0.224 | OK |
| Braden Montgomery | RF | 46 | 166 | 38 | 0.229 | 3 | 21 | 0.306 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.205 | 0.277 | 0.328 | OK |
| Luisangel Acuña | LF | 65 | 168 | 41 | 0.244 | 1 | 12 | 0.279 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.240 | 0.268 | 0.281 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nick Sogard | 1B | 17 | 57 | 14 | 0.246 | 0 | 3 | 0.368 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.362 | 0.336 | OK |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | CF | 105 | 412 | 118 | 0.286 | 14 | 57 | 0.329 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.292 | 0.320 | 0.568 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 109 | 418 | 107 | 0.256 | 20 | 57 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.263 | 0.337 | 0.627 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 102 | 344 | 82 | 0.238 | 11 | 47 | 0.309 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.266 | 0.324 | 0.422 | OK |
| Masataka Yoshida | DH | 74 | 226 | 58 | 0.257 | 4 | 22 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.260 | 0.314 | 0.396 | OK |
| Andruw Monasterio | SS | 69 | 207 | 55 | 0.266 | 6 | 26 | 0.319 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.284 | 0.329 | 0.459 | OK |
| Jarren Duran | LF | 104 | 401 | 82 | 0.204 | 15 | 52 | 0.262 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.282 | 0.327 | 0.471 | OK |
| Anthony Seigler | 2B | 36 | 116 | 26 | 0.224 | 3 | 9 | 0.295 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.119 | 0.189 | 0.253 | OK |
| Connor Wong | C | 51 | 145 | 36 | 0.248 | 2 | 17 | 0.337 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.187 | 0.261 | 0.296 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 32 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 0.281 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Luis Castillo | Starter | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 5.1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 107 | 5.1 | 6 | 4 |
| Grant Taylor | Middle Reliever | 41 | 51.9 | 2.60 | 1.118 | 13.2 | 76 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Newcomb | Middle Reliever | 39 | 51.5 | 3.32 | 1.320 | 9.8 | 56 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Ranger Suarez | Starter | 19 | 97.2 | 3.24 | 1.193 | 9.7 | 105 | 5.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 103 | 5.2 | 6 | 3 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Middle Reliever | 38 | 37.2 | 0.97 | 1.102 | 12.1 | 50 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever | 43 | 41.3 | 1.96 | 0.896 | 9.8 | 45 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin Slaten | Middle Reliever | 33 | 23.3 | 5.41 | 1.588 | 13.9 | 36 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyron Guerrero | Middle Reliever | 27 | 23.1 | 2.73 | 1.212 | 12.1 | 31 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
BOS wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
Quality edge: -; margin adjustment: -; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kevin McGonigle | 3B | 109 | 414 | 117 | 0.283 | 11 | 42 | 0.390 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.274 | 0.386 | 0.431 | OK |
| Gleyber Torres | 2B | 57 | 209 | 56 | 0.268 | 7 | 29 | 0.387 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.356 | 0.427 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | C | 104 | 393 | 109 | 0.277 | 25 | 75 | 0.340 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.299 | 0.334 | 0.575 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 111 | 402 | 112 | 0.279 | 16 | 54 | 0.371 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.226 | 0.319 | 0.411 | OK |
| Colt Keith | DH | 103 | 299 | 80 | 0.268 | 8 | 28 | 0.317 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.288 | 0.335 | 0.440 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 112 | 389 | 84 | 0.216 | 20 | 57 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.222 | 0.291 | 0.371 | OK |
| Max Clark | CF | 5 | 19 | 7 | 0.368 | 1 | 3 | 0.500 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.302 | 0.403 | 0.524 | OK |
| Javier Báez | SS | 29 | 100 | 28 | 0.280 | 2 | 11 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.276 | 0.298 | 0.387 | OK |
| Zach McKinstry | RF | 85 | 267 | 59 | 0.221 | 4 | 23 | 0.293 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.248 | 0.313 | 0.370 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Taylor Ward | RF | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0.167 | 0 | 0 | 0.167 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.229 | 0.360 | 0.315 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 107 | 394 | 112 | 0.284 | 14 | 49 | 0.378 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.273 | 0.342 | 0.462 | OK |
| Dominic Canzone | DH | 98 | 291 | 74 | 0.254 | 18 | 49 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.301 | 0.453 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 103 | 407 | 105 | 0.258 | 17 | 50 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.265 | 0.329 | 0.436 | OK |
| Cole Young | 2B | 115 | 419 | 111 | 0.265 | 14 | 51 | 0.324 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.281 | 0.330 | 0.428 | OK |
| Weston Wilson | 1B | 19 | 49 | 9 | 0.184 | 2 | 7 | 0.231 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.268 | 0.326 | OK |
| Jhonny Pereda | C | 19 | 63 | 17 | 0.270 | 2 | 4 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.289 | 0.339 | OK |
| Leo Rivas | 3B | 36 | 102 | 13 | 0.127 | 0 | 7 | 0.262 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.104 | 0.227 | 0.163 | OK |
| Colt Emerson | SS | 62 | 201 | 40 | 0.199 | 8 | 23 | 0.259 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.253 | 0.348 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Framber Valdez | Starter | 22 | 118.7 | 4.47 | 1.407 | 7.4 | 98 | 5.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 86 | 5.0 | 5 | 1 |
| Kenley Jansen | Middle Reliever | 32 | 27.8 | 3.56 | 1.259 | 11.0 | 34 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever | 45 | 40.5 | 3.11 | 1.654 | 8.0 | 36 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Holton | Middle Reliever | 48 | 43.6 | 3.51 | 1.537 | 8.1 | 39 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew Anderson | Middle Reliever | 41 | 60.1 | 4.49 | 1.448 | 11.7 | 78 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bryce Miller | Starter | 13 | 71.9 | 2.88 | 0.946 | 9.3 | 74 | 6.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 101 | 6.0 | 5 | 1 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Middle Reliever | 43 | 39.8 | 3.62 | 1.231 | 14.7 | 65 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| José A. Ferrer | Middle Reliever | 50 | 40.3 | 3.80 | 1.514 | 8.5 | 38 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever | 53 | 41.4 | 4.13 | 1.546 | 11.1 | 51 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
DET wins 3-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| BAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | x | 4 | 9 |
Quality edge: 0.6009; margin adjustment: 0.2524; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Wade Meckler | LF | 51 | 153 | 47 | 0.307 | 3 | 20 | 0.369 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.308 | 0.367 | 0.444 | OK |
| Mike Trout | DH | 95 | 343 | 83 | 0.242 | 18 | 40 | 0.386 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.360 | 0.409 | OK |
| Nolan Schanuel | 1B | 93 | 349 | 96 | 0.275 | 6 | 37 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.290 | 0.331 | OK |
| Zach Neto | SS | 111 | 439 | 100 | 0.228 | 19 | 47 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.189 | 0.255 | 0.314 | OK |
| Vaughn Grissom | 3B | 70 | 249 | 64 | 0.257 | 7 | 46 | 0.319 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.295 | 0.379 | OK |
| Moisés Ballesteros | C | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0.143 | 0 | 0 | 0.143 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.278 | 0.330 | OK |
| Jose Siri | CF | 48 | 113 | 29 | 0.257 | 6 | 19 | 0.303 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.205 | 0.254 | 0.385 | OK |
| Josh Lowe | RF | 66 | 197 | 40 | 0.203 | 8 | 22 | 0.251 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.198 | 0.250 | 0.334 | OK |
| Oswald Peraza | 2B | 84 | 275 | 65 | 0.236 | 7 | 24 | 0.280 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.121 | 0.157 | 0.225 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Dylan Beavers | LF | 56 | 174 | 43 | 0.247 | 2 | 17 | 0.320 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.319 | 0.355 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 111 | 416 | 104 | 0.250 | 23 | 71 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.318 | 0.448 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 110 | 450 | 98 | 0.218 | 17 | 46 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.211 | 0.285 | 0.366 | OK |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 3B | 12 | 41 | 9 | 0.220 | 2 | 9 | 0.289 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.237 | 0.304 | 0.445 | OK |
| Jackson Holliday | 2B | 58 | 163 | 39 | 0.239 | 5 | 20 | 0.335 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.223 | 0.324 | 0.323 | OK |
| Coby Mayo | DH | 83 | 259 | 54 | 0.208 | 15 | 41 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.230 | 0.290 | 0.487 | OK |
| Colton Cowser | CF | 88 | 222 | 46 | 0.207 | 7 | 25 | 0.307 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.125 | 0.251 | 0.200 | OK |
| Leody Taveras | RF | 92 | 295 | 65 | 0.220 | 6 | 41 | 0.298 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.282 | 0.352 | OK |
| Carlos Narváez | C | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.167 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.142 | 0.206 | 0.236 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 33 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Ryan Johnson | Starter | 12 | 45.3 | 7.75 | 1.611 | 7.4 | 37 | 4.0 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 90 | 4.0 | 4 | 3 |
| Samy Natera Jr. | Middle Reliever | 19 | 20.4 | 2.65 | 0.980 | 15.9 | 36 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| José Fermin | Middle Reliever | 34 | 32.2 | 3.63 | 1.429 | 12.6 | 45 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 2.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Brandon Young | Starter | 18 | 100.3 | 3.41 | 1.326 | 7.6 | 85 | 6.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 101 | 6.0 | 5 | 1 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Middle Reliever | 39 | 29.6 | 4.56 | 1.622 | 8.8 | 29 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever | 50 | 32.9 | 2.19 | 0.973 | 9.8 | 36 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Grant Wolfram | Middle Reliever | 41 | 23.3 | 5.79 | 1.760 | 13.9 | 36 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
BAL wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | x | 4 | 6 |
Quality edge: 1.013; margin adjustment: 0.4255; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Otto Lopez | SS | 111 | 444 | 142 | 0.320 | 9 | 51 | 0.352 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.600 | 0.262 | 0.290 | 0.395 | OK |
| Heriberto Hernández | LF | 82 | 270 | 63 | 0.233 | 16 | 43 | 0.300 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.272 | 0.389 | OK |
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 113 | 418 | 120 | 0.287 | 6 | 41 | 0.366 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.325 | 0.342 | OK |
| Leo Jiménez | 3B | 45 | 126 | 26 | 0.206 | 2 | 11 | 0.284 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.183 | 0.239 | 0.286 | OK |
| Kyle Stowers | 1B | 90 | 336 | 78 | 0.232 | 16 | 48 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.286 | 0.447 | OK |
| Javier Sanoja | RF | 86 | 286 | 76 | 0.266 | 4 | 37 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.258 | 0.290 | 0.402 | OK |
| Esteury Ruiz | CF | 54 | 123 | 32 | 0.260 | 5 | 10 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.258 | 0.298 | 0.442 | OK |
| Brian Navarreto | C | 8 | 14 | 2 | 0.143 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.162 | 0.214 | 0.276 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 108 | 367 | 73 | 0.199 | 6 | 28 | 0.319 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.203 | 0.304 | 0.333 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Drake Baldwin | C | 91 | 349 | 96 | 0.275 | 20 | 59 | 0.367 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.325 | 0.377 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 114 | 441 | 117 | 0.265 | 31 | 69 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.260 | 0.328 | 0.556 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 108 | 412 | 120 | 0.291 | 20 | 64 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.283 | 0.432 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | 2B | 109 | 406 | 107 | 0.264 | 10 | 56 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 0.308 | 0.383 | OK |
| Mike Yastrzemski | LF | 94 | 253 | 58 | 0.229 | 8 | 31 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.146 | 0.220 | 0.348 | OK |
| Dominic Smith | DH | 82 | 234 | 62 | 0.265 | 8 | 41 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.298 | 0.419 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 113 | 406 | 90 | 0.222 | 13 | 55 | 0.298 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.255 | 0.311 | 0.425 | OK |
| Jim Jarvis | SS | 27 | 83 | 21 | 0.253 | 1 | 10 | 0.303 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.228 | 0.278 | 0.343 | OK |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SS | 23 | 73 | 5 | 0.068 | 0 | 3 | 0.171 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.082 | 0.181 | 0.098 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 29 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.207 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Janson Junk | Starter | 15 | 76.8 | 4.69 | 1.367 | 7.1 | 61 | 5.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 95 | 5.1 | 6 | 1 |
| Pete Fairbanks | Middle Reliever | 38 | 33.7 | 6.68 | 1.424 | 12.6 | 47 | 1.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 1.2 | 1 | 3 |
| Calvin Faucher | Middle Reliever | 48 | 41.6 | 5.19 | 1.707 | 11.5 | 53 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Martín Pérez | Starter | 21 | 95.7 | 3.29 | 1.191 | 7.1 | 75 | 5.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 112 | 5.2 | 6 | 3 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Middle Reliever | 40 | 39.6 | 2.73 | 1.162 | 10.0 | 44 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Middle Reliever | 53 | 45.7 | 2.36 | 0.832 | 12.6 | 64 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever | 39 | 43.2 | 2.71 | 1.227 | 12.7 | 61 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Kinley | Middle Reliever | 44 | 33.2 | 4.88 | 1.446 | 10.3 | 38 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Dodd | Middle Reliever | 31 | 32.3 | 2.23 | 0.898 | 10.6 | 38 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
ATL wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
Quality edge: -0.6783; margin adjustment: -0.2849; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trevor Larnach | LF | 92 | 300 | 84 | 0.280 | 10 | 40 | 0.365 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.319 | 0.441 | OK |
| Luke Keaschall | CF | 105 | 354 | 93 | 0.263 | 6 | 33 | 0.352 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.276 | 0.349 | 0.414 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | 2B | 99 | 369 | 86 | 0.233 | 19 | 53 | 0.289 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.219 | 0.265 | 0.434 | OK |
| Josh Bell | DH | 110 | 404 | 99 | 0.245 | 14 | 64 | 0.305 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.230 | 0.288 | 0.387 | OK |
| Royce Lewis | 1B | 80 | 288 | 67 | 0.233 | 12 | 37 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 0.331 | 0.483 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | 3B | 107 | 404 | 97 | 0.240 | 16 | 57 | 0.297 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.204 | 0.260 | 0.371 | OK |
| Alan Roden | RF | 18 | 42 | 9 | 0.214 | 0 | 8 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.180 | 0.279 | 0.210 | OK |
| Victor Caratini | C | 83 | 264 | 60 | 0.227 | 7 | 37 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.273 | 0.306 | OK |
| Tristan Gray | SS | 60 | 170 | 39 | 0.229 | 4 | 29 | 0.268 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.136 | 0.177 | 0.204 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 0.235 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carter Jensen | C | 105 | 376 | 86 | 0.229 | 15 | 54 | 0.303 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.182 | 0.255 | 0.339 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 95 | 374 | 105 | 0.281 | 13 | 40 | 0.349 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.249 | 0.319 | 0.412 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | 1B | 105 | 375 | 94 | 0.251 | 18 | 43 | 0.305 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.246 | 0.290 | 0.443 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | DH | 106 | 411 | 89 | 0.217 | 16 | 47 | 0.263 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.249 | 0.418 | OK |
| Michael Massey | 2B | 91 | 285 | 76 | 0.267 | 9 | 39 | 0.301 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.294 | 0.445 | OK |
| Isaac Collins | LF | 100 | 320 | 77 | 0.241 | 6 | 34 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.235 | 0.323 | 0.376 | OK |
| John Rave | RF | 13 | 36 | 10 | 0.278 | 2 | 2 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.268 | 0.489 | OK |
| Josh Rojas | 3B | 24 | 61 | 14 | 0.230 | 1 | 6 | 0.254 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.187 | 0.223 | 0.269 | OK |
| Kyle Isbel | CF | 56 | 168 | 41 | 0.244 | 3 | 13 | 0.295 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.237 | 0.281 | 0.316 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bailey Ober | Starter | 16 | 85.6 | 4.52 | 1.250 | 6.6 | 63 | 5.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 105 | 5.2 | 6 | 3 |
| Yoendrys Gómez | Middle Reliever | 37 | 28.7 | 2.20 | 1.324 | 10.3 | 33 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Andrew Morris | Middle Reliever | 42 | 45.9 | 3.73 | 1.438 | 10.0 | 51 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Nance | Middle Reliever | 9 | 7.5 | 2.40 | 1.600 | 9.6 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael Wacha | Starter | 22 | 136.7 | 3.56 | 1.170 | 7.3 | 111 | 6.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 102 | 6.0 | 5 | 4 |
| Alex Lange | Middle Reliever | 43 | 40.7 | 6.86 | 1.695 | 10.4 | 47 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Middle Reliever | 46 | 41.1 | 2.19 | 1.046 | 7.7 | 35 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Steven Cruz | Middle Reliever | 40 | 37.8 | 4.76 | 1.349 | 11.4 | 48 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
MIN wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
Quality edge: 0.3826; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Francisco Lindor | SS | 57 | 224 | 51 | 0.228 | 9 | 25 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.225 | 0.289 | 0.416 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | 3B | 111 | 447 | 114 | 0.255 | 11 | 55 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.267 | 0.342 | OK |
| Luis Robert Jr. | CF | 36 | 127 | 24 | 0.189 | 4 | 12 | 0.275 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.119 | 0.201 | 0.208 | OK |
| Carson Benge | RF | 107 | 409 | 107 | 0.262 | 13 | 43 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.316 | 0.423 | OK |
| Francisco Alvarez | DH | 75 | 247 | 60 | 0.243 | 11 | 26 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.322 | 0.388 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 94 | 333 | 71 | 0.213 | 12 | 35 | 0.274 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.266 | 0.343 | OK |
| Eric Wagaman | 1B | 17 | 38 | 7 | 0.184 | 2 | 4 | 0.244 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.166 | 0.227 | 0.267 | OK |
| Luis Torrens | C | 62 | 185 | 43 | 0.232 | 3 | 24 | 0.294 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.242 | 0.294 | 0.392 | OK |
| Cristian Pache | LF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.243 | 0.310 | 0.399 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Travis Bazzana | DH | 82 | 307 | 75 | 0.244 | 9 | 35 | 0.340 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.330 | 0.370 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | RF | 94 | 355 | 99 | 0.279 | 12 | 55 | 0.352 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.234 | 0.322 | 0.384 | OK |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 1B | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0.250 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 0.339 | 0.466 | OK |
| Angel Martínez | LF | 70 | 254 | 58 | 0.228 | 11 | 34 | 0.265 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.168 | 0.196 | 0.300 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 110 | 384 | 100 | 0.260 | 9 | 50 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.205 | 0.267 | 0.303 | OK |
| Petey Halpin | CF | 42 | 110 | 23 | 0.209 | 2 | 7 | 0.241 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.217 | 0.286 | OK |
| Patrick Bailey | C | 44 | 132 | 31 | 0.235 | 5 | 18 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.276 | 0.393 | OK |
| Angel Genao | 2B | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0.800 | 0 | 1 | 0.800 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.709 | 0.712 | 0.731 | OK |
| Rhys Hoskins | 1B | 82 | 239 | 42 | 0.176 | 12 | 35 | 0.303 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.179 | 0.300 | 0.403 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Nolan McLean | Starter | 22 | 123.8 | 3.34 | 1.139 | 10.8 | 148 | 6.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 97 | 6.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Devin Williams | Middle Reliever | 40 | 35.1 | 4.10 | 1.595 | 13.1 | 51 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Duarte | Middle Reliever | 10 | 12.7 | 1.42 | 0.866 | 8.5 | 12 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kodai Senga | Middle Reliever | 14 | 43.1 | 8.98 | 1.856 | 11.1 | 53 | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 0.2 | 1 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Foster Griffin | Starter | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 6.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 99 | 6.0 | 7 | 3 |
| Cade Smith | Middle Reliever | 49 | 49.3 | 2.56 | 1.197 | 13.3 | 73 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Middle Reliever | 44 | 31.6 | 3.99 | 1.551 | 10.0 | 35 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Colin Holderman | Middle Reliever | 42 | 37.6 | 1.68 | 0.904 | 10.1 | 42 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Tim Herrin | Middle Reliever | 45 | 27.6 | 4.89 | 1.848 | 9.5 | 29 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
NYM wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | x | 6 | 8 |
Quality edge: 0.9666; margin adjustment: 0.406; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Henry Bolte | CF | 67 | 224 | 58 | 0.259 | 4 | 21 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.268 | 0.323 | 0.374 | OK |
| Tommy White | 1B | 17 | 68 | 18 | 0.265 | 0 | 0 | 0.286 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.274 | 0.292 | OK |
| Jonah Heim | DH | 55 | 189 | 43 | 0.228 | 10 | 28 | 0.275 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.271 | 0.411 | OK |
| Tyler Soderstrom | LF | 102 | 368 | 90 | 0.245 | 17 | 50 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.324 | 0.423 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 50 | 160 | 35 | 0.219 | 5 | 20 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.105 | 0.182 | 0.219 | OK |
| Lawrence Butler | RF | 99 | 293 | 61 | 0.208 | 7 | 30 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.297 | 0.391 | OK |
| Brian Serven | C | 5 | 12 | 3 | 0.250 | 1 | 2 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.169 | 0.230 | 0.324 | OK |
| Alika Williams | SS | 43 | 118 | 31 | 0.263 | 2 | 9 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.279 | 0.373 | OK |
| Jonathan Ornelas | 2B | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0.200 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.205 | 0.217 | 0.240 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Elly De La Cruz | SS | 93 | 368 | 103 | 0.280 | 18 | 52 | 0.361 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.270 | 0.359 | 0.472 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 1B | 112 | 424 | 109 | 0.257 | 24 | 86 | 0.337 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.251 | 0.333 | 0.484 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 83 | 298 | 68 | 0.228 | 19 | 46 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.332 | 0.428 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | 84 | 270 | 68 | 0.252 | 9 | 32 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.249 | 0.347 | 0.421 | OK |
| Eugenio Suárez | 3B | 81 | 293 | 59 | 0.201 | 14 | 39 | 0.275 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.199 | 0.276 | 0.371 | OK |
| Dane Myers | CF | 67 | 166 | 45 | 0.271 | 3 | 16 | 0.361 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.280 | 0.353 | 0.380 | OK |
| Héctor Rodríguez | DH | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.058 | 0.330 | 0.094 | |
| Noelvi Marte | RF | 51 | 169 | 33 | 0.195 | 6 | 15 | 0.235 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.242 | 0.312 | OK |
| Matt McLain | 2B | 84 | 287 | 55 | 0.192 | 9 | 27 | 0.287 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.191 | 0.275 | 0.381 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 32 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Mason Barnett | Starter | 15 | 28.5 | 5.05 | 1.368 | 9.2 | 29 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 87 | 5.0 | 7 | 2 |
| Hogan Harris | Middle Reliever | 53 | 40.1 | 4.49 | 1.895 | 15.0 | 67 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Elvis Alvarado | Middle Reliever | 33 | 30.0 | 5.40 | 1.400 | 12.6 | 42 | 0.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Luis Medina | Middle Reliever | 36 | 46.7 | 3.85 | 1.520 | 11.6 | 60 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Andrew Abbott | Starter | 23 | 119.9 | 3.98 | 1.418 | 7.1 | 95 | 5.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 96 | 5.1 | 7 | 1 |
| Emilio Pagán | Middle Reliever | 26 | 24.4 | 4.43 | 1.189 | 10.3 | 28 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tejay Antone | Middle Reliever | 36 | 31.1 | 2.60 | 1.093 | 9.5 | 33 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brock Burke | Middle Reliever | 57 | 47.3 | 2.85 | 1.459 | 9.5 | 50 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 |
CIN wins 6-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| MIL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | x | 5 | 8 |
Quality edge: 1.1749; margin adjustment: 0.4935; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jake Mangum | CF | 82 | 294 | 89 | 0.303 | 3 | 24 | 0.350 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 0.306 | 0.368 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 104 | 413 | 104 | 0.252 | 23 | 71 | 0.317 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.297 | 0.434 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | 113 | 414 | 112 | 0.271 | 15 | 63 | 0.382 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.340 | 0.390 | OK |
| Endy Rodríguez | DH | 42 | 130 | 35 | 0.269 | 7 | 20 | 0.362 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.263 | 0.346 | 0.467 | OK |
| Spencer Horwitz | 1B | 78 | 259 | 70 | 0.270 | 10 | 36 | 0.373 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.127 | 0.234 | 0.252 | OK |
| Nick Gonzales | 3B | 106 | 407 | 123 | 0.302 | 4 | 48 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.243 | 0.279 | 0.317 | OK |
| Ronny Simon | RF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.053 | 0.471 | 0.088 | |
| Jacob Gonzalez | SS | 15 | 38 | 7 | 0.184 | 1 | 3 | 0.179 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.133 | 0.179 | 0.257 | OK |
| Henry Davis | C | 63 | 195 | 33 | 0.169 | 8 | 30 | 0.259 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.159 | 0.232 | 0.253 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 31 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0.161 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Brice Turang | 2B | 105 | 410 | 112 | 0.273 | 16 | 69 | 0.363 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.334 | 0.396 | OK |
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 78 | 327 | 92 | 0.281 | 14 | 44 | 0.339 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.269 | 0.327 | 0.453 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 96 | 316 | 79 | 0.250 | 7 | 42 | 0.344 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.188 | 0.288 | 0.331 | OK |
| Andrew Vaughn | 1B | 65 | 188 | 57 | 0.303 | 5 | 32 | 0.387 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.241 | 0.336 | 0.441 | OK |
| Christian Yelich | DH | 74 | 288 | 65 | 0.226 | 7 | 36 | 0.314 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.292 | 0.354 | OK |
| Luis Lara | RF | 17 | 52 | 12 | 0.231 | 0 | 11 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.235 | 0.333 | 0.358 | OK |
| Gary Sánchez | C | 57 | 154 | 33 | 0.214 | 8 | 26 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.356 | 0.385 | OK |
| David Hamilton | 3B | 76 | 228 | 53 | 0.232 | 3 | 15 | 0.303 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.201 | 0.273 | 0.285 | OK |
| Cooper Pratt | SS | 38 | 120 | 34 | 0.283 | 2 | 15 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.295 | 0.377 | 0.387 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Braxton Ashcraft | Starter | 22 | 125.0 | 4.03 | 1.184 | 10.1 | 140 | 5.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 106 | 5.1 | 3 | 3 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever | 47 | 44.4 | 3.24 | 1.059 | 11.4 | 56 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mason Montgomery | Middle Reliever | 46 | 39.0 | 3.92 | 1.359 | 16.6 | 72 | 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Yohan Ramírez | Middle Reliever | 47 | 55.4 | 3.25 | 1.462 | 11.4 | 70 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dustin May | Starter | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 5.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 91 | 5.1 | 5 | 2 |
| Trevor Megill | Middle Reliever | 44 | 43.1 | 1.88 | 0.858 | 10.6 | 51 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Abner Uribe | Middle Reliever | 47 | 42.6 | 2.32 | 1.103 | 9.9 | 47 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever | 52 | 56.6 | 4.13 | 1.590 | 13.7 | 86 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
MIL wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| ARI | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | x | 5 | 7 |
Quality edge: -; margin adjustment: -; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF | 112 | 443 | 124 | 0.280 | 9 | 49 | 0.350 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.297 | 0.407 | OK |
| Luis Rengifo | LF | 18 | 59 | 19 | 0.322 | 2 | 8 | 0.429 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.311 | 0.297 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 112 | 415 | 88 | 0.212 | 23 | 69 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.205 | 0.290 | 0.365 | OK |
| Ty France | 1B | 83 | 281 | 81 | 0.288 | 16 | 49 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.297 | 0.407 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 111 | 434 | 104 | 0.240 | 16 | 54 | 0.291 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.267 | 0.311 | 0.435 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 109 | 376 | 84 | 0.223 | 9 | 41 | 0.320 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.326 | 0.306 | OK |
| Gavin Sheets | DH | 105 | 317 | 68 | 0.215 | 14 | 43 | 0.314 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.208 | 0.301 | 0.360 | OK |
| Freddy Fermin | C | 56 | 167 | 31 | 0.186 | 4 | 15 | 0.266 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.242 | 0.299 | 0.405 | OK |
| Jake Cronenworth | 2B | 62 | 208 | 45 | 0.216 | 3 | 17 | 0.306 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.283 | 0.259 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 30 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 111 | 397 | 97 | 0.244 | 9 | 41 | 0.359 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.291 | 0.377 | 0.435 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 111 | 417 | 102 | 0.245 | 16 | 53 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.248 | 0.332 | 0.454 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | C | 51 | 174 | 48 | 0.276 | 6 | 25 | 0.358 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.297 | 0.369 | 0.491 | OK |
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 108 | 441 | 109 | 0.247 | 19 | 62 | 0.303 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.208 | 0.260 | 0.373 | OK |
| Lars Nootbaar | DH | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0.167 | 0 | 1 | 0.444 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.224 | 0.332 | 0.335 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 108 | 369 | 90 | 0.244 | 16 | 53 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.306 | 0.467 | OK |
| Max Kepler | LF | 28 | 87 | 19 | 0.218 | 2 | 15 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.199 | 0.274 | 0.339 | OK |
| Tim Tawa | 1B | 51 | 151 | 35 | 0.232 | 6 | 26 | 0.279 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.285 | 0.421 | OK |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | CF | 48 | 161 | 48 | 0.298 | 1 | 13 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.360 | 0.390 | 0.498 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 31 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Walker Buehler | Starter | 22 | 100.6 | 5.37 | 1.501 | 8.2 | 92 | 4.2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 93 | 4.2 | 5 | 4 |
| Mason Miller | Middle Reliever | 45 | 44.3 | 0.81 | 0.858 | 17.9 | 88 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Middle Reliever | 52 | 52.3 | 3.44 | 1.224 | 12.0 | 70 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Estrada | Middle Reliever | 25 | 20.4 | 4.41 | 1.373 | 12.4 | 28 | 0.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Yuki Matsui | Middle Reliever | 32 | 36.7 | 2.70 | 1.390 | 11.5 | 47 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kohl Drake | Starter | 3 | 13.0 | 4.85 | 1.462 | 8.3 | 12 | 4.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 81 | 4.1 | 5 | 1 |
| Juan Morillo | Middle Reliever | 48 | 40.4 | 2.90 | 1.114 | 12.3 | 55 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandyn Garcia | Middle Reliever | 36 | 26.8 | 2.01 | 0.784 | 12.1 | 36 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 2 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever | 48 | 40.8 | 3.09 | 1.225 | 7.1 | 32 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
ARI wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
Quality edge: 1.5391; margin adjustment: 0.6464; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Myles Straw | CF | 82 | 186 | 43 | 0.231 | 3 | 17 | 0.275 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.281 | 0.388 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 1B | 111 | 411 | 94 | 0.229 | 24 | 70 | 0.302 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.276 | 0.402 | OK |
| Alejandro Kirk | C | 40 | 136 | 32 | 0.235 | 4 | 15 | 0.309 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.165 | 0.246 | 0.290 | OK |
| George Springer | DH | 84 | 324 | 77 | 0.238 | 12 | 36 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.241 | 0.314 | 0.389 | OK |
| Nathan Lukes | RF | 78 | 256 | 68 | 0.266 | 5 | 18 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.185 | 0.230 | 0.256 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 3B | 112 | 431 | 123 | 0.285 | 9 | 38 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.253 | 0.276 | 0.387 | OK |
| Luis Urías | 2B | 21 | 50 | 12 | 0.240 | 3 | 8 | 0.316 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.147 | 0.233 | 0.288 | OK |
| Davis Schneider | LF | 49 | 110 | 16 | 0.145 | 3 | 12 | 0.269 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.083 | 0.215 | 0.200 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 103 | 336 | 77 | 0.229 | 7 | 40 | 0.274 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.221 | 0.243 | 0.321 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 36 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.278 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 113 | 423 | 123 | 0.291 | 26 | 69 | 0.389 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.324 | 0.401 | 0.711 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | DH | 97 | 365 | 101 | 0.277 | 19 | 64 | 0.370 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.292 | 0.386 | 0.514 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 112 | 425 | 104 | 0.245 | 13 | 61 | 0.355 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.318 | 0.376 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 111 | 440 | 109 | 0.248 | 11 | 48 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.313 | 0.369 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 107 | 397 | 85 | 0.214 | 18 | 48 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.178 | 0.280 | 0.320 | OK |
| Nico Hoerner | 2B | 111 | 444 | 117 | 0.264 | 7 | 54 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.341 | 0.385 | 0.511 | OK |
| Michael Conforto | RF | 72 | 169 | 39 | 0.231 | 9 | 23 | 0.316 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.312 | 0.432 | OK |
| Dansby Swanson | SS | 107 | 370 | 81 | 0.219 | 15 | 56 | 0.297 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.320 | 0.419 | OK |
| Miguel Amaya | C | 51 | 159 | 37 | 0.233 | 3 | 18 | 0.322 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.145 | 0.205 | 0.226 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 29 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0.138 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dylan Cease | Starter | 20 | 117.0 | 2.46 | 1.103 | 13.4 | 174 | 6.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 106 | 6.2 | 8 | 2 |
| Louis Varland | Middle Reliever | 52 | 53.7 | 1.17 | 1.080 | 12.4 | 74 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Rogers | Middle Reliever | 53 | 47.5 | 1.71 | 1.158 | 5.1 | 27 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Spencer Miles | Middle Reliever | 32 | 68.4 | 3.29 | 1.184 | 9.3 | 71 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| David Peterson | Starter | 6 | 30.9 | 4.66 | 1.197 | 6.4 | 22 | 5.1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 93 | 5.1 | 3 | 2 |
| Jacob Webb | Middle Reliever | 51 | 46.0 | 2.74 | 1.326 | 11.0 | 56 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent Thornton | Middle Reliever | 31 | 31.4 | 2.87 | 1.210 | 4.6 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Caleb Thielbar | Middle Reliever | 39 | 28.5 | 5.68 | 1.509 | 13.6 | 43 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ryan Rolison | Middle Reliever | 40 | 35.9 | 3.01 | 1.560 | 11.5 | 46 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
CHC wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| PHI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 6 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.0666; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Dylan Crews | RF | 62 | 235 | 52 | 0.221 | 9 | 25 | 0.302 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.194 | 0.251 | 0.331 | OK |
| Andrés Chaparro | 1B | 40 | 90 | 19 | 0.211 | 6 | 23 | 0.311 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.143 | 0.228 | 0.356 | OK |
| Brady House | 3B | 53 | 194 | 45 | 0.232 | 8 | 27 | 0.282 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.187 | 0.232 | 0.372 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 112 | 421 | 122 | 0.290 | 28 | 88 | 0.365 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.265 | 0.324 | 0.450 | OK |
| Harry Ford | DH | 10 | 28 | 5 | 0.179 | 1 | 4 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.181 | 0.321 | 0.350 | OK |
| Andrew Pinckney | LF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.097 | 0.177 | 0.202 | |
| Jacob Young | CF | 91 | 308 | 73 | 0.237 | 9 | 36 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.300 | 0.358 | OK |
| Nasim Nuñez | 2B | 101 | 328 | 77 | 0.235 | 1 | 33 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.172 | 0.260 | 0.214 | OK |
| Keibert Ruiz | C | 73 | 241 | 64 | 0.266 | 7 | 37 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.242 | 0.282 | 0.377 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 107 | 400 | 96 | 0.240 | 32 | 62 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.182 | 0.315 | 0.358 | OK |
| Trea Turner | SS | 109 | 456 | 115 | 0.252 | 16 | 45 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.248 | 0.285 | 0.390 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | RF | 113 | 401 | 101 | 0.252 | 24 | 68 | 0.362 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.257 | 0.381 | 0.530 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 2 | 9 | 3 | 0.333 | 1 | 3 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.291 | 0.320 | 0.432 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 1B | 109 | 410 | 93 | 0.227 | 13 | 60 | 0.285 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.243 | 0.289 | 0.359 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | LF | 108 | 399 | 111 | 0.278 | 16 | 50 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.280 | 0.362 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 82 | 279 | 62 | 0.222 | 8 | 37 | 0.299 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.295 | 0.362 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 3B | 108 | 374 | 96 | 0.257 | 8 | 50 | 0.325 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.281 | 0.373 | 0.436 | OK |
| Justin Crawford | CF | 100 | 304 | 78 | 0.257 | 2 | 27 | 0.303 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.270 | 0.306 | 0.344 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 31 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Miles Mikolas | Starter | 23 | 104.5 | 5.86 | 1.397 | 4.7 | 55 | 4.2 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 93 | 4.2 | 3 | 6 |
| Clayton Beeter | Middle Reliever | 35 | 30.5 | 3.84 | 1.344 | 10.3 | 35 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Orlando Ribalta | Middle Reliever | 36 | 30.5 | 3.84 | 1.344 | 9.4 | 32 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Tom Cosgrove | Middle Reliever | 9 | 6.9 | 3.91 | 1.449 | 6.5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cristopher Sánchez | Starter | 23 | 142.8 | 2.65 | 1.218 | 10.6 | 168 | 6.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 112 | 6.0 | 7 | 3 |
| Jhoan Duran | Middle Reliever | 40 | 37.4 | 1.44 | 0.936 | 13.5 | 56 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever | 47 | 39.1 | 3.68 | 1.381 | 11.0 | 48 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jonathan Bowlan | Middle Reliever | 42 | 35.7 | 3.28 | 1.120 | 12.6 | 50 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
PHI wins 6-3