MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

August 3, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (8 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
LAD @ CHC6 - 26 - 2LADLADLAD wins 6-253%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ MIL2 - 52 - 5MILMILMIL wins 5-253%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ ARI4 - 34 - 3SDSDSD wins 4-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SF @ TEX4 - 33 - 4SFTEXTEX wins 4-351%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
STL @ NYY4 - 54 - 5NYYNYYNYY wins 5-466%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ COL6 - 26 - 2TBTBTB wins 6-266%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TOR @ HOU3 - 43 - 4HOUHOUHOU wins 4-360%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
WAS @ PHI2 - 52 - 5PHIPHIPHI wins 5-251%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs

LAD 69-43 (5.11 RPG / 3.77 RA)
6 - 2
CHC 63-49 (5.09 RPG / 4.29 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 6-2 TARGET: LAD 6 - 2 CHC (LAD) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
LAD01022001067
CHC00000200024

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff24
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

LAD Season Quality

Record69-43
Win%0.616
Run Diff150
RD/Game1.339

CHC Season Quality

Record63-49
Win%0.562
Run Diff89
RD/Game0.795

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.625; margin adjustment: -0.2625; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 101386112 0.290 24650.397 55000 01 0.000 0.313 0.417 0.587 OK
Andy PagesCF 109425115 0.271 18730.335 44100 02 0.250 0.301 0.352 0.476 OK
Tommy Edman2B 3211233 0.295 2160.368 44112 01 0.250 0.220 0.277 0.363 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 108409127 0.311 15520.387 44111 01 0.250 0.382 0.439 0.514 OK
Mookie BettsSS 7329067 0.231 13360.282 43110 10 0.333 0.221 0.262 0.333 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 10236787 0.237 9510.329 43110 11 0.333 0.211 0.312 0.348 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 7527069 0.256 10390.322 43112 01 0.333 0.282 0.341 0.469 OK
Enrique Hernández3B 6135 0.385 120.385 44111 00 0.250 0.351 0.360 0.690 OK
Eliezer AlfonzoC 11244 0.167 040.167 44000 02 0.000 0.214 0.224 0.363 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 66 29 0.206

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 110410117 0.285 24640.386 44100 00 0.250 0.217 0.319 0.488 OK
Seiya SuzukiDH 9435498 0.277 18610.368 43110 11 0.333 0.285 0.378 0.482 OK
Alex Bregman3B 108426106 0.249 11470.343 44000 01 0.000 0.246 0.330 0.376 OK
Carson KellyC 7825867 0.260 6360.346 44112 01 0.250 0.158 0.243 0.227 OK
Michael Busch1B 109412100 0.243 12580.356 44000 00 0.000 0.219 0.314 0.316 OK
Nico Hoerner2B 108433112 0.259 6510.317 42100 00 0.500 0.306 0.347 0.434 OK
Ian HappLF 10539285 0.217 18480.326 43000 10 0.000 0.194 0.291 0.350 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 10435975 0.209 14540.289 44000 02 0.000 0.177 0.251 0.293 OK
Pedro Ramirez2B 359430 0.319 1140.375 33000 02 0.000 0.315 0.379 0.448 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35314 22 27 0.129

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Justin WrobleskiStarter 18111.52.91 1.0317.087 6.23221697 6.2 6 2
Edwin DíazMiddle Reliever 88.05.62 1.62513.512 1.00000019 1.0 0 0
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 4741.42.61 0.91812.457 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Kyle HurtMiddle Reliever 3433.74.81 1.42411.543 0.11001115 0.1 1 0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Matthew BoydStarter 1263.93.52 1.2368.560 6.064424102 6.0 4 4
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 4944.02.86 1.38611.556 1.00110114 1.0 1 1
Trent ThorntonMiddle Reliever 3030.32.97 1.2544.515 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Caleb ThielbarMiddle Reliever 3828.44.44 1.37313.643 1.01110216 1.0 2 1
Ryan RolisonMiddle Reliever 3934.93.09 1.60511.645 0.0000002 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-2


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers

PIT 56-57 (5.12 RPG / 4.85 RA)
2 - 5
MIL 69-42 (5.0 RPG / 3.78 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 5-2 TARGET: PIT 2 - 5 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
PIT00020000024
MIL30110000x510

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed5.6
Run Diff-21
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

PIT Season Quality

Record56-57
Win%0.496
Run Diff30
RD/Game0.265

MIL Season Quality

Record69-42
Win%0.622
Run Diff135
RD/Game1.216

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.1398; margin adjustment: 0.4787; applied: True

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake MangumCF 7928287 0.309 3230.355 44000 01 0.000 0.294 0.331 0.444 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 101400101 0.252 23710.320 44100 02 0.250 0.271 0.330 0.490 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 110401109 0.272 15630.386 44000 01 0.000 0.249 0.348 0.405 OK
Esmerlyn ValdezRF 4113334 0.256 11300.365 44000 00 0.000 0.228 0.346 0.513 OK
Spencer HorwitzDH 7525069 0.276 10330.381 44100 01 0.250 0.261 0.357 0.427 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 103396122 0.308 4480.360 43110 10 0.333 0.240 0.274 0.305 OK
Endy Rodríguez1B 3912030 0.250 5170.348 33112 00 0.333 0.238 0.329 0.396 OK
Jacob GonzalezSS 12306 0.200 020.194 33000 02 0.000 0.237 0.280 0.328 OK
Henry DavisC 6219233 0.172 8300.259 32000 11 0.000 0.172 0.236 0.299 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33314 22 28 0.129

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brice Turang2B 102399111 0.278 16690.367 55310 01 0.600 0.323 0.396 0.504 OK
Jackson ChourioLF 7531689 0.282 13420.337 55213 02 0.400 0.273 0.320 0.412 OK
Christian YelichDH 7127663 0.228 7350.320 54110 12 0.250 0.215 0.291 0.344 OK
William ContrerasC 101391105 0.269 10560.333 43111 10 0.333 0.240 0.302 0.379 OK
Jake BauersRF 9733289 0.268 19620.370 44211 00 0.500 0.297 0.387 0.548 OK
Andrew Vaughn1B 6217954 0.302 4280.380 43100 10 0.333 0.239 0.318 0.422 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 9330779 0.257 7420.348 42000 20 0.000 0.230 0.322 0.378 OK
David Hamilton3B 7321951 0.233 3150.306 44000 01 0.000 0.221 0.299 0.313 OK
Joey OrtizSS 8023754 0.228 5270.295 44000 02 0.000 0.236 0.305 0.400 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393410 55 58 0.294

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bubba ChandlerStarter 21102.14.67 1.4508.293 5.010551597 5.0 5 5
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 4643.33.33 1.03911.053 1.00001018 1.0 0 0
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 4538.04.03 1.36816.369 0.00001017 0.0 0 0
Yohan RamírezMiddle Reliever 4654.43.31 1.48911.469 1.10002126 1.1 1 0
Carmen MlodzinskiMiddle Reliever 2591.33.25 1.3587.576 0.2000027 0.2 2 0

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon SproatStarter 2088.75.28 1.4549.796 4.24221787 4.2 7 2
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 4241.11.97 0.90010.950 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 4540.62.44 1.1339.844 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 5154.64.29 1.61213.783 1.0000104 1.0 0 0
Grant AndersonMiddle Reliever 4440.54.44 1.3339.141 1.00000016 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-2


San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks

SD 58-54 (4.21 RPG / 4.32 RA)
4 - 3
ARI 59-53 (4.54 RPG / 4.52 RA)
WINNER: SD wins 4-3 TARGET: SD 4 - 3 ARI (SD) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
SD030000010411
ARI20100000035

SD Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff17
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak3W

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff5
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

SD Season Quality

Record58-54
Win%0.518
Run Diff-12
RD/Game-0.107

ARI Season Quality

Record59-53
Win%0.527
Run Diff2
RD/Game0.018

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1384; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 109431122 0.283 8480.355 54111 11 0.250 0.270 0.342 0.385 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 5919642 0.214 3160.306 54310 10 0.750 0.226 0.290 0.302 OK
Manny MachadoDH 10940485 0.210 23650.294 55100 02 0.200 0.209 0.289 0.405 OK
Ty France1B 8026980 0.297 16490.348 55100 00 0.200 0.352 0.383 0.536 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 108422100 0.237 16520.289 54000 10 0.000 0.287 0.331 0.514 OK
Luis RengifoLF 154717 0.362 280.483 55100 00 0.200 0.249 0.344 0.332 OK
Luis CampusanoC 3610231 0.304 4160.398 44211 00 0.500 0.291 0.371 0.441 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 10636881 0.220 9400.315 43112 00 0.333 0.214 0.310 0.290 OK
Sung-Mun Song3B 4010321 0.204 1150.299 43100 10 0.333 0.163 0.256 0.235 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423711 44 43 0.297

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 3211229 0.259 080.314 43210 11 0.667 0.247 0.294 0.354 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 7525761 0.237 4270.354 44000 01 0.000 0.225 0.355 0.328 OK
Ketel Marte2B 7329778 0.263 12460.315 43000 11 0.000 0.277 0.332 0.469 OK
Tim TawaLF 14365 0.139 020.238 44111 01 0.250 0.154 0.250 0.226 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 5117448 0.276 6250.358 44112 00 0.250 0.284 0.361 0.463 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 7324759 0.239 8320.315 44000 01 0.000 0.232 0.293 0.356 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 7527879 0.284 13420.372 44100 02 0.250 0.291 0.368 0.562 OK
Max KeplerLF 000 0.000 000.000 33000 00 0.000 0.243 0.307 0.401
Ildemaro Vargas1B 6223060 0.261 7370.299 33000 00 0.000 0.224 0.280 0.352 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34325 33 27 0.156

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael KingStarter 22123.03.44 1.1958.0109 5.24332394 5.2 3 3
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 4544.30.81 0.85817.988 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 5252.33.44 1.22412.070 1.1100026 1.1 2 0
Jeremiah EstradaMiddle Reliever 2420.24.46 1.38612.528 1.00000114 1.0 1 0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon PfaadtStarter 210.27.06 1.4714.45 5.08221291 5.0 2 2
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.3337.51 1.00110020 1.0 0 1
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 22.10.00 0.4768.62 1.01001120 1.0 1 0
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever 11.09.00 2.0000.00 1.02112016 1.0 0 1
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 1.00000013 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

SD wins 4-3


San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers

SF 48-65 (4.22 RPG / 4.65 RA)
3 - 4
TEX 55-57 (4.15 RPG / 4.47 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 4-3 TARGET: SF 4 - 3 TEX (SF) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
SF30000000037
TEX01000200148

SF Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff11
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff-6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak5L

SF Season Quality

Record48-65
Win%0.425
Run Diff-48
RD/Game-0.425

TEX Season Quality

Record55-57
Win%0.491
Run Diff-36
RD/Game-0.321

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2028; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nate FurmanDH 000 0.000 000.000 55300 00 0.600 0.241 0.309 0.416
Jung Hoo LeeRF 100378115 0.304 5380.342 44111 01 0.250 0.271 0.304 0.395 OK
Willy AdamesSS 10640992 0.225 17460.281 43011 01 0.000 0.202 0.258 0.329 OK
Rafael Devers1B 111417105 0.252 22610.326 43000 11 0.000 0.277 0.359 0.517 OK
Daniel SusacC 4313034 0.262 3220.306 44100 03 0.250 0.179 0.222 0.397 OK
Drew GilbertCF 8022254 0.243 4210.310 44100 00 0.250 0.257 0.319 0.359 OK
Osleivis Basabe2B 493 0.333 250.400 44111 01 0.250 0.314 0.324 0.954 OK
Grant McCrayLF 9213 0.143 120.182 43000 12 0.000 0.164 0.207 0.298 OK
Christian Koss3B 17427 0.167 010.205 43000 11 0.000 0.185 0.224 0.228 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37337 33 310 0.212

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc PedersonDH 10029374 0.253 20420.339 53111 20 0.333 0.266 0.346 0.541 OK
Wyatt LangfordLF 6024366 0.272 13310.317 44100 01 0.250 0.221 0.263 0.440 OK
Corey SeagerSS 5319737 0.188 10250.296 44000 02 0.000 0.204 0.306 0.395 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 106404109 0.270 11400.339 44100 02 0.250 0.256 0.324 0.477 OK
Evan CarterCF 9226154 0.207 8300.318 43212 10 0.667 0.247 0.350 0.358 OK
Jake Burger1B 10739694 0.237 19660.296 44000 01 0.000 0.227 0.277 0.387 OK
Ezequiel Duran3B 10135494 0.266 12580.319 44111 02 0.250 0.249 0.298 0.411 OK
Austin WynnsC 6142 0.143 110.200 44000 00 0.000 0.088 0.139 0.179 OK
Nicky Lopez2B 5415846 0.291 1180.335 44210 00 0.500 0.129 0.187 0.170 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37348 44 38 0.235

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan WebbStarter 19118.33.96 1.1247.193 6.041126109 6.0 6 1
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 3728.02.89 1.50014.545 1.02220219 1.0 2 2
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 4439.24.13 1.40312.253 0.01001015 0.0 0 0
Dylan SmithMiddle Reliever 2217.13.16 1.40412.123 1.00000017 1.0 0 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 3833.13.53 1.2998.230 0.01110015 0.0 0 1

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cal QuantrillStarter 2256.83.96 1.2856.239 5.26331898 5.2 8 3
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 3947.21.33 0.6149.751 1.01000118 1.0 1 0
Peyton GrayMiddle Reliever 3537.23.87 1.37110.945 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Tyler AlexanderMiddle Reliever 5041.83.88 1.4838.841 1.00002021 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

TEX wins 4-3


St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees

STL 55-57 (4.31 RPG / 4.46 RA)
4 - 5
NYY 63-49 (4.57 RPG / 3.79 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 5-4 TARGET: STL 4 - 5 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
STL00030010045
NYY00002030x57

STL Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs2.9
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-12
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.2
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-1
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

STL Season Quality

Record55-57
Win%0.491
Run Diff-16
RD/Game-0.143

NYY Season Quality

Record63-49
Win%0.562
Run Diff87
RD/Game0.777

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.0268; margin adjustment: 0.4313; applied: True

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 103406101 0.249 16400.345 55110 01 0.200 0.225 0.314 0.361 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 108418119 0.285 20760.345 43000 11 0.000 0.250 0.296 0.394 OK
Alec Burleson1B 109418119 0.285 15700.348 44000 00 0.000 0.260 0.323 0.392 OK
Iván HerreraDH 10940796 0.236 11440.351 42000 20 0.000 0.225 0.284 0.333 OK
Masyn WinnSS 10136989 0.241 4450.316 44112 02 0.250 0.224 0.303 0.304 OK
Nathan ChurchCF 8527764 0.231 8300.274 44111 01 0.250 0.228 0.269 0.322 OK
Blaze Jordan3B 3712530 0.240 1220.261 44000 01 0.000 0.232 0.262 0.345 OK
Bryan TorresLF 337919 0.241 3110.286 43211 11 0.667 0.250 0.291 0.408 OK
Jimmy CrooksC 338615 0.174 390.245 43000 10 0.000 0.176 0.230 0.293 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37325 44 57 0.156

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 8730564 0.210 10410.309 43112 10 0.333 0.189 0.276 0.307 OK
Ben RiceDH 104390104 0.267 30690.358 43011 01 0.000 0.248 0.338 0.505 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 000 0.000 000.000 44000 01 0.000 0.277 0.303 0.553
Spencer JonesLF 369723 0.237 5130.315 44110 00 0.250 0.248 0.319 0.470 OK
Jasson DomínguezRF 4918844 0.234 6140.273 44000 02 0.000 0.206 0.240 0.335 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 10136180 0.222 16450.294 44100 02 0.250 0.214 0.284 0.370 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 8123449 0.209 9260.266 44100 00 0.250 0.193 0.240 0.316 OK
José CaballeroSS 9431577 0.244 11400.295 32210 10 1.000 0.253 0.298 0.415 OK
Austin WellsC 7621735 0.161 7140.262 32112 11 0.500 0.157 0.256 0.271 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34307 55 37 0.233

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael McGreevyStarter 21113.93.63 1.2206.076 5.14223491 5.1 4 2
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 4542.83.57 1.2389.947 1.03330121 1.0 1 3
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 5042.74.00 1.3359.947 1.20000221 1.2 2 0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cam SchlittlerStarter 23133.42.09 0.93011.1165 6.132237105 6.1 7 2
David BednarMiddle Reliever 4545.32.78 1.12610.754 1.01110018 1.0 0 1
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 5234.53.91 1.85515.158 1.01111020 1.0 0 1
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 5746.51.74 1.33313.268 0.20001015 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 5-4


Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies

TB 65-46 (4.36 RPG / 4.08 RA)
6 - 2
COL 45-67 (4.8 RPG / 5.68 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 6-2 TARGET: TB 6 - 2 COL (TB) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
TB113000001610
COL00010001024

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs2.6
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff-1
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

COL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed5.5
Run Diff-4
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak3W

TB Season Quality

Record65-46
Win%0.586
Run Diff31
RD/Game0.279

COL Season Quality

Record45-67
Win%0.402
Run Diff-98
RD/Game-0.875

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.43; margin adjustment: -0.6006; applied: True

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 106411125 0.304 15630.378 54111 00 0.250 0.278 0.334 0.434 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 107397112 0.282 14650.372 55000 03 0.000 0.263 0.331 0.384 OK
Junior Caminero3B 110415117 0.282 30660.374 54211 01 0.500 0.254 0.343 0.466 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 9332465 0.201 13340.276 53210 20 0.667 0.206 0.258 0.372 OK
Victor Mesa Jr.RF 3912326 0.211 8170.290 54111 10 0.250 0.198 0.274 0.368 OK
Chandler SimpsonLF 100382113 0.296 0200.326 54000 13 0.000 0.313 0.343 0.374 OK
Richie Palacios2B 7822751 0.225 4300.319 54211 10 0.500 0.123 0.216 0.231 OK
Taylor WallsSS 8225754 0.210 0210.302 54000 11 0.000 0.175 0.262 0.246 OK
Hunter FeducciaC 5614133 0.234 2110.297 44212 01 0.500 0.247 0.299 0.362 OK
TEAM TOTALS 443610 66 69 0.278

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyLF 9134299 0.289 11610.327 44000 01 0.000 0.266 0.294 0.460 OK
Kyle Karros3B 10030984 0.272 9390.369 44000 01 0.000 0.286 0.365 0.424 OK
Cole CarriggCF 4214143 0.305 5270.389 43100 10 0.333 0.309 0.393 0.522 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 10238399 0.258 33650.329 43111 10 0.333 0.285 0.337 0.648 OK
Mickey MoniakDH 7225369 0.273 17470.311 44000 03 0.000 0.263 0.300 0.523 OK
Willi Castro2B 9433588 0.263 12460.335 44111 03 0.250 0.288 0.355 0.538 OK
Tyler FreemanRF 7224762 0.251 3230.320 33000 01 0.000 0.218 0.245 0.278 OK
Troy Johnston1B 9430787 0.283 3400.344 33000 02 0.000 0.253 0.306 0.345 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 10034367 0.195 8350.241 33100 01 0.333 0.157 0.209 0.259 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33314 22 212 0.129

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ian SeymourStarter 3572.54.10 1.14511.290 5.121111084 5.1 10 1
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 4542.41.49 0.8739.846 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 4643.92.46 0.9578.642 1.12110023 1.1 0 1
Garrett CleavingerMiddle Reliever 3829.53.66 1.35614.046 1.00001117 1.0 1 0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael LorenzenStarter 23100.76.79 1.8777.180 4.16554589 4.1 5 5
Jordan RomanoMiddle Reliever 87.21.25 1.38912.510 1.00001111 1.0 1 0
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 3446.54.06 1.4628.946 1.00001018 1.0 0 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 4441.86.24 1.81810.649 1.00000118 1.0 1 0
Brennan BernardinoMiddle Reliever 5236.73.19 1.4448.334 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 3232.54.98 1.7857.226 0.12000120 0.1 1 0
Jimmy HergetReliever 3025.68.09 1.99210.530 0.12110020 0.1 0 1

Game Summary

TB wins 6-2


Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros

TOR 52-60 (3.92 RPG / 4.44 RA)
3 - 4
HOU 58-55 (4.67 RPG / 4.91 RA)
WINNER: HOU wins 4-3 TARGET: TOR 3 - 4 HOU (HOU) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
TOR00210000035
HOU02020000x411

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.900
Avg Runs6.0
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff21
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak6W

TOR Season Quality

Record52-60
Win%0.464
Run Diff-58
RD/Game-0.518

HOU Season Quality

Record58-55
Win%0.513
Run Diff-27
RD/Game-0.239

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3524; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nathan LukesRF 7524367 0.276 5180.335 43000 11 0.000 0.158 0.228 0.244 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 105394104 0.264 6440.337 44110 00 0.250 0.250 0.311 0.347 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 10839891 0.229 24690.304 44212 00 0.500 0.226 0.279 0.434 OK
George SpringerDH 8131475 0.239 12360.320 43000 11 0.000 0.256 0.326 0.436 OK
Alejandro KirkC 3712730 0.236 3140.315 44100 00 0.250 0.255 0.328 0.350 OK
Jesús SánchezLF 7421759 0.272 7290.314 44111 02 0.250 0.240 0.279 0.379 OK
Ernie Clement2B 109422122 0.289 8350.314 44000 00 0.000 0.251 0.275 0.354 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 10032776 0.232 7400.276 33000 00 0.000 0.216 0.238 0.314 OK
Myles StrawCF 7917638 0.216 3160.263 33000 01 0.000 0.209 0.254 0.311 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34325 33 25 0.156

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 6425582 0.322 13360.375 44311 00 0.750 0.363 0.394 0.630 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 110399133 0.333 35840.445 43111 11 0.333 0.402 0.493 0.679 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 10538596 0.249 15600.347 44100 00 0.250 0.226 0.305 0.388 OK
Christian Walker1B 10840096 0.240 22640.318 44000 01 0.000 0.258 0.325 0.486 OK
Yainer DiazC 5119951 0.256 8250.282 44000 01 0.000 0.222 0.248 0.383 OK
Jose Altuve2B 8834480 0.233 12310.297 44100 02 0.250 0.245 0.299 0.344 OK
Taylor TrammellLF 5214535 0.241 5160.321 44200 01 0.500 0.248 0.324 0.405 OK
Cam SmithRF 10436778 0.213 13380.284 44211 01 0.500 0.233 0.282 0.378 OK
Lucas SpenceOF 12376 0.162 030.244 43111 01 0.333 0.171 0.232 0.217 OK
TEAM TOTALS 363411 44 18 0.324

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane BieberStarter 729.76.06 1.7176.722 4.111441699 4.1 6 4
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 5152.71.20 1.10112.573 1.20000021 1.2 0 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 5145.51.78 1.1875.327 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 5143.14.39 1.53115.775 1.00000018 1.0 0 0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cristian JavierStarter 820.47.50 1.9129.321 3.24332166 3.2 1 3
Josh HaderMiddle Reliever 2422.30.81 0.76213.734 1.20000214 1.2 2 0
Steven OkertMiddle Reliever 5547.42.66 1.01310.857 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 4235.75.04 1.56912.951 1.10000018 1.1 0 0
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 4944.85.02 1.36210.050 1.01000116 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

HOU wins 4-3


Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies

WAS 55-58 (5.37 RPG / 5.23 RA)
2 - 5
PHI 59-53 (4.38 RPG / 4.41 RA)
WINNER: PHI wins 5-2 TARGET: WAS 2 - 5 PHI (PHI) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
WAS00020000027
PHI02100020x58

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak5L

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

WAS Season Quality

Record55-58
Win%0.487
Run Diff16
RD/Game0.142

PHI Season Quality

Record59-53
Win%0.527
Run Diff-4
RD/Game-0.036

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1172; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodDH 113433115 0.266 30730.394 44100 01 0.250 0.257 0.389 0.506 OK
Daylen LileLF 111424105 0.248 13540.299 44000 01 0.000 0.253 0.297 0.474 OK
Dylan CrewsRF 6022651 0.226 9250.306 44100 02 0.250 0.224 0.283 0.388 OK
CJ AbramsSS 109408117 0.287 28850.363 44100 00 0.250 0.229 0.306 0.485 OK
Keibert RuizC 7123461 0.261 7360.293 44111 01 0.250 0.228 0.267 0.369 OK
Abimelec Ortiz1B 121 0.500 000.500 44000 02 0.000 0.230 0.242 0.918 OK
Jacob YoungCF 8829970 0.234 9360.289 44211 02 0.500 0.228 0.282 0.372 OK
Jorbit Vivas3B 7620349 0.241 3170.320 44000 00 0.000 0.223 0.298 0.312 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 9831776 0.240 1310.321 32100 11 0.500 0.185 0.268 0.229 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35347 22 110 0.206

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trea TurnerSS 106444112 0.252 16430.298 55110 01 0.200 0.261 0.301 0.452 OK
Kyle SchwarberDH 10439196 0.246 32620.359 55000 03 0.000 0.197 0.329 0.378 OK
Bryce Harper1B 110392100 0.255 23660.361 53000 22 0.000 0.256 0.361 0.518 OK
Alec Bohm3B 10639990 0.226 13590.284 53212 20 0.667 0.231 0.273 0.341 OK
Bryan De La CruzRF 8209 0.450 260.435 43111 00 0.333 0.407 0.435 0.719 OK
Bryson Stott2B 10536592 0.252 8490.318 43211 11 0.667 0.243 0.331 0.405 OK
Edmundo SosaLF 5917336 0.208 5250.239 43111 10 0.333 0.206 0.225 0.317 OK
Derek HillCF 246618 0.273 490.304 43100 01 0.333 0.229 0.274 0.425 OK
Garrett StubbsC 12315 0.161 020.229 44000 03 0.000 0.143 0.174 0.207 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40328 55 611 0.250

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew AlvarezStarter 1555.14.25 1.5799.558 4.05334693 4.0 6 3
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 3329.43.37 1.29310.434 1.11000332 1.1 3 0
Orlando RibaltaMiddle Reliever 3529.43.98 1.3619.832 1.12222131 1.1 1 2
Tom CosgroveMiddle Reliever 75.61.61 1.4296.44 1.10000121 1.1 1 0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Aaron NolaStarter 22110.55.78 1.4939.4116 5.05221491 5.0 4 2
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 3835.41.53 0.93213.553 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 4537.13.88 1.45611.246 1.00000211 1.0 2 0
Jonathan BowlanMiddle Reliever 4134.73.37 1.12412.448 1.00000215 1.0 2 0
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 4736.16.48 1.69013.253 1.02000119 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

PHI wins 5-2