MLB Predictions — July 30, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
BOS @ OAK	6 - 2	6 - 2	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 6-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ STL	6 - 4	6 - 4	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 6-4	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
KC @ MIN	4 - 5	4 - 5	MIN	MIN	MIN wins 5-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIA @ NYM	3 - 4	3 - 4	NYM	NYM	NYM wins 4-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYY @ CHW	6 - 3	6 - 3	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 6-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ CIN	4 - 3	4 - 3	PIT	PIT	PIT wins 4-3	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SEA @ LAD	2 - 5	2 - 5	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 5-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SF @ SD	1 - 5	1 - 5	SD	SD	SD wins 5-1	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TEX @ TB	3 - 5	3 - 5	TB	TB	TB wins 5-3	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
WAS @ ATL	3 - 4	3 - 4	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 4-3	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics

BOS 56-51 (4.2 RPG / 3.74 RA)

6 - 2

OAK 45-63 (4.41 RPG / 5.59 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 6-2 TARGET: BOS 6 - 2 OAK (BOS) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	0	4	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	6	10
OAK	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	5

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.5

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff-1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

BOS Season Quality

Record55-51

Win%0.519

Run Diff47

RD/Game0.443

OAK Season Quality

Record45-62

Win%0.421

Run Diff-126

RD/Game-1.178

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.7684; margin adjustment: -0.7427; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Masataka Yoshida	DH	68	203	51	0.251	3	18	0.323	5	5	2	1	2	0	1	0.400	0.175	0.246	0.270	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	99	388	108	0.278	10	48	0.320	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.272	0.295	0.429	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	97	343	97	0.283	22	66	0.390	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.200	0.323	0.378	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	103	395	99	0.251	15	52	0.322	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.192	0.257	0.346	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	96	324	76	0.235	10	41	0.300	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.288	0.339	0.412	OK
Jarren Duran	LF	98	379	74	0.195	13	48	0.255	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.159	0.210	0.250	OK
Andruw Monasterio	SS	63	185	48	0.259	6	20	0.317	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.319	0.381	0.591	OK
Anthony Seigler	2B	30	100	25	0.250	3	9	0.327	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0.000	0.159	0.241	0.332	OK
Connor Wong	C	47	132	36	0.273	2	17	0.362	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.238	0.308	0.402	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	37	10	6	6	5	6	0.270

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jacob Wilson	SS	68	276	75	0.272	7	32	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.207	0.230	0.309	OK
Tyler Soderstrom	LF	96	346	85	0.246	17	50	0.342	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.205	0.287	0.387	OK
Tommy White	3B	11	44	14	0.318	0	0	0.348	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.237	0.265	0.309	OK
Carlos Cortes	DH	79	225	60	0.267	7	27	0.337	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.228	0.284	0.370	OK
Jonah Heim	C	49	166	38	0.229	10	26	0.274	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.222	0.264	0.432	OK
Donovan Walton	2B	10	18	3	0.167	0	1	0.444	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.266	0.358	0.438	OK
Jeff McNeil	1B	93	294	73	0.248	4	33	0.304	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.264	0.311	0.358	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	93	269	55	0.204	6	27	0.300	4	2	1	1	0	2	1	0.500	0.241	0.332	0.440	OK
Henry Bolte	CF	62	208	51	0.245	3	18	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.221	0.287	0.289	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	5	2	2	4	9	0.156

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sonny Gray	Starter	19	105.5	2.82	1.175	7.9	93	6.0	1	0	0	3	7	91	6.0	7	0
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	36	35.2	1.02	1.136	12.0	47	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	15	1.0	1	2
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	41	39.3	2.06	0.891	9.6	42	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	31	22.2	5.68	1.667	14.2	35	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Tyron Guerrero	Middle Reliever	24	20.1	2.69	1.244	13.0	29	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	0.0	0	0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Mason Barnett	Starter	14	23.5	4.98	1.447	8.8	23	4.2	6	5	5	5	3	97	4.2	3	5
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	51	38.9	4.16	1.825	15.0	65	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	30	27.8	5.83	1.439	12.6	39	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	34	44.7	3.62	1.499	11.7	58	1.1	1	1	1	0	2	24	1.1	2	1
José Suarez	Middle Reliever	29	32.4	4.44	1.358	9.7	35	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

BOS wins 6-2

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

CHC 62-47 (5.17 RPG / 4.36 RA)

6 - 4

STL 54-55 (4.37 RPG / 4.5 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 6-4 TARGET: CHC 6 - 4 STL (CHC) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	6	10
STL	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	4	6

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs6.8

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff34

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

STL Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.0

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff-16

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

CHC Season Quality

Record61-47

Win%0.565

Run Diff87

RD/Game0.806

STL Season Quality

Record54-54

Win%0.500

Run Diff-12

RD/Game-0.111

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0139; margin adjustment: -0.4258; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	106	397	114	0.287	24	63	0.385	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.269	0.346	0.610	OK
Seiya Suzuki	DH	91	344	94	0.273	18	60	0.363	5	5	1	1	0	0	2	0.200	0.281	0.367	0.500	OK
Michael Busch	1B	105	396	96	0.242	12	55	0.359	5	4	3	1	0	1	0	0.750	0.222	0.308	0.334	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	104	412	102	0.248	11	46	0.341	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.281	0.351	0.439	OK
Ian Happ	LF	101	377	83	0.220	18	47	0.331	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.184	0.287	0.347	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	104	417	106	0.254	5	50	0.315	4	3	1	1	4	1	1	0.333	0.206	0.265	0.334	OK
Michael Conforto	RF	69	161	39	0.242	9	23	0.330	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.253	0.345	0.476	OK
Carson Kelly	C	76	250	65	0.260	6	36	0.349	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.163	0.253	0.241	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	100	346	75	0.217	14	54	0.297	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.253	0.322	0.392	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	37	10	6	6	4	9	0.270

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	100	394	99	0.251	15	39	0.347	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.225	0.309	0.347	OK
Jordan Walker	DH	104	399	113	0.283	20	73	0.346	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.257	0.319	0.438	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	105	403	115	0.285	15	70	0.345	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.271	0.322	0.412	OK
Iván Herrera	C	105	391	94	0.240	11	44	0.359	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.247	0.317	0.387	OK
Lars Nootbaar	RF	44	141	35	0.248	3	15	0.352	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.240	0.350	0.360	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	97	357	86	0.241	4	44	0.311	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.257	0.315	0.335	OK
Bryan Torres	LF	30	70	16	0.229	3	10	0.280	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.242	0.289	0.429	OK
Blaze Jordan	3B	34	113	26	0.230	1	22	0.254	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.215	0.254	0.326	OK
Nathan Church	CF	81	264	60	0.227	8	30	0.270	4	3	0	1	2	0	0	0.000	0.192	0.233	0.295	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	6	4	4	3	8	0.188

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Javier Assad	Starter	17	61.6	4.09	1.185	6.1	42	5.0	4	3	3	3	7	95	5.0	7	3
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	47	41.9	3.01	1.408	11.8	55	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	29	30.1	2.99	1.163	4.5	15	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	36	26.4	4.43	1.402	14.3	42	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Ryan Rolison	Middle Reliever	37	32.5	3.32	1.631	11.6	42	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	18	1.0	0	1

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andre Pallante	Starter	20	110.0	3.85	1.236	6.8	83	5.2	7	6	6	3	5	109	5.2	5	6
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	43	40.8	3.75	1.275	9.9	45	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	48	41.5	3.90	1.253	9.8	45	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	45	34.8	4.91	1.667	11.6	45	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Gordon Graceffo	Middle Reliever	44	44.1	3.88	1.361	6.9	34	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	24	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

CHC wins 6-4

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

KC 46-64 (4.17 RPG / 5.03 RA)

4 - 5

MIN 55-55 (4.71 RPG / 4.97 RA)

WINNER: MIN wins 5-4 TARGET: KC 4 - 5 MIN (MIN) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	4	6
MIN	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	0	x	5	7

KC Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.2

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-11

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff-15

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

KC Season Quality

Record46-63

Win%0.422

Run Diff-93

RD/Game-0.853

MIN Season Quality

Record54-55

Win%0.495

Run Diff-30

RD/Game-0.275

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6881; margin adjustment: 0.289; applied: True

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	C	99	354	84	0.237	14	53	0.306	5	4	3	1	1	1	1	0.750	0.197	0.255	0.337	OK
Lane Thomas	CF	89	279	64	0.229	10	36	0.321	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.217	0.285	0.354	OK
Jac Caglianone	RF	99	351	87	0.248	16	38	0.306	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.221	0.267	0.366	OK
Salvador Perez	1B	100	389	84	0.216	15	45	0.265	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.224	0.260	0.407	OK
Michael Massey	DH	86	267	72	0.270	8	36	0.307	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.263	0.303	0.433	OK
Nick Loftin	2B	69	214	55	0.257	5	35	0.335	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.271	0.344	0.441	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	95	303	72	0.238	6	34	0.340	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.187	0.282	0.309	OK
Josh Rojas	3B	21	53	14	0.264	1	6	0.278	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.263	0.284	0.380	OK
Andrew Velazquez	SS	4	13	1	0.077	0	0	0.077	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.131	0.142	0.194	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	33	6	4	4	4	5	0.182

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Austin Martin	LF	81	249	61	0.245	2	21	0.344	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.251	0.351	0.343	OK
Royce Lewis	2B	74	265	57	0.215	10	33	0.299	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.222	0.311	0.392	OK
Ryan Jeffers	C	45	160	47	0.294	9	35	0.390	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.286	0.371	0.518	OK
Josh Bell	DH	105	385	94	0.244	13	63	0.304	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.234	0.292	0.379	OK
Victor Caratini	1B	78	254	60	0.236	7	36	0.318	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.240	0.299	0.347	OK
Luke Keaschall	CF	100	337	87	0.258	4	30	0.350	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.257	0.343	0.330	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	101	384	94	0.245	15	55	0.300	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.213	0.267	0.354	OK
Ryan Kreidler	SS	59	167	41	0.246	5	25	0.292	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.270	0.309	0.444	OK
Alan Roden	RF	15	37	7	0.189	0	7	0.262	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.204	0.275	0.268	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	31	7	5	5	4	7	0.226

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Noah Cameron	Starter	20	105.8	5.02	1.437	8.5	100	5.0	5	3	3	3	4	97	5.0	4	3
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	42	38.7	6.98	1.705	10.2	44	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	18	0.1	1	0
Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	45	40.1	2.24	1.047	7.6	34	1.0	1	2	2	0	1	16	1.0	1	2
Steven Cruz	Middle Reliever	37	34.8	4.91	1.408	11.9	46	1.2	1	0	0	1	1	26	1.2	1	0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bailey Ober	Starter	15	79.6	4.64	1.269	6.8	60	5.0	3	1	1	3	1	85	5.0	1	1
Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	34	26.6	2.03	1.165	10.2	30	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14	1.0	3	0
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	39	43.7	3.71	1.442	10.5	51	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Tommy Nance	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	2.95	1.639	8.9	6	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	13	1.0	0	3
Travis Adams	Middle Reliever	23	30.0	5.70	1.500	11.1	37	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	23	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

MIN wins 5-4

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

MIA 55-54 (4.41 RPG / 4.36 RA)

3 - 4

NYM 46-63 (4.12 RPG / 4.59 RA)

WINNER: NYM wins 4-3 TARGET: MIA 3 - 4 NYM (NYM) Confidence: 52.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIA	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	5
NYM	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	4	8

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed5.0

Run Diff-15

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak3W

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed3.0

Run Diff16

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

MIA Season Quality

Record55-54

Win%0.505

Run Diff6

RD/Game0.055

NYM Season Quality

Record46-63

Win%0.422

Run Diff-51

RD/Game-0.468

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6468; margin adjustment: -0.2717; applied: True

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Otto Lopez	SS	105	420	138	0.329	9	50	0.363	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.288	0.321	0.422	OK
Kyle Stowers	1B	84	314	73	0.232	14	46	0.317	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.228	0.303	0.467	OK
Heriberto Hernández	LF	77	253	61	0.241	16	43	0.301	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.231	0.277	0.519	OK
Xavier Edwards	2B	108	398	116	0.291	6	39	0.373	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.301	0.386	0.399	OK
Liam Hicks	DH	97	340	95	0.279	14	60	0.358	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.266	0.338	0.403	OK
Griffin Conine	RF	40	112	31	0.277	9	20	0.357	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.185	0.269	0.450	OK
Javier Sanoja	3B	80	268	71	0.265	3	35	0.298	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.231	0.273	0.354	OK
Joe Mack	C	61	186	44	0.237	10	30	0.294	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.154	0.206	0.303	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	103	351	69	0.197	5	26	0.320	3	3	2	1	0	0	0	0.667	0.194	0.315	0.282	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	5	3	3	3	11	0.156

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
A.J. Ewing	LF	67	238	66	0.277	7	27	0.349	5	5	1	0	0	0	3	0.200	0.268	0.344	0.388	OK
Francisco Lindor	SS	51	199	45	0.226	8	23	0.316	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.229	0.315	0.459	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	105	422	108	0.256	10	53	0.299	5	3	0	1	1	1	0	0.000	0.235	0.274	0.330	OK
Carson Benge	RF	101	385	100	0.260	11	41	0.324	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.251	0.310	0.369	OK
Luis Robert Jr.	CF	31	110	22	0.200	4	10	0.296	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.188	0.270	0.320	OK
Jorge Polanco	DH	26	97	14	0.144	1	4	0.202	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.139	0.194	0.235	OK
Jared Young	1B	56	164	41	0.250	6	16	0.328	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.236	0.292	0.369	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	88	315	68	0.216	12	35	0.273	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.228	0.283	0.446	OK
Francisco Alvarez	C	70	232	58	0.250	11	26	0.327	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.251	0.339	0.459	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	34	8	4	4	3	8	0.235

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eury Pérez	Starter	18	97.5	3.60	1.128	9.8	106	6.0	4	1	1	1	8	92	6.0	8	1
Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	36	31.7	7.10	1.451	12.8	45	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	0.0	0	0
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	43	39.2	3.21	1.148	11.7	51	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0
Cade Gibson	Middle Reliever	23	24.5	6.61	1.673	9.2	25	1.0	4	3	3	2	0	30	1.0	0	3

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nolan McLean	Starter	21	117.7	3.36	1.130	10.9	142	6.0	4	3	3	3	8	100	6.0	8	3
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	38	33.1	4.08	1.601	13.3	49	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	41	40.9	1.98	0.880	9.7	44	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	43	33.3	2.43	1.321	10.5	39	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

NYM wins 4-3

New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox

NYY 61-48 (4.64 RPG / 3.84 RA)

6 - 3

CHW 57-51 (4.78 RPG / 4.38 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 6-3 TARGET: NYY 6 - 3 CHW (NYY) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	3	6	8
CHW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	8

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

NYY Season Quality

Record61-47

Win%0.565

Run Diff88

RD/Game0.815

CHW Season Quality

Record56-51

Win%0.523

Run Diff42

RD/Game0.393

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4845; margin adjustment: -0.2035; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trent Grisham	CF	84	293	62	0.212	10	40	0.314	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.181	0.269	0.306	OK
Ben Rice	1B	100	378	103	0.272	30	69	0.363	4	3	2	1	0	1	1	0.667	0.233	0.311	0.466	OK
Jasson Domínguez	RF	45	172	41	0.238	6	14	0.276	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.221	0.248	0.365	OK
Paul Goldschmidt	DH	76	278	72	0.259	16	44	0.317	4	4	1	1	3	0	3	0.250	0.264	0.326	0.453	OK
Spencer Jones	LF	32	84	19	0.226	3	11	0.309	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.231	0.305	0.393	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	98	350	79	0.226	16	45	0.296	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.250	0.304	0.420	OK
Anthony Volpe	SS	50	157	39	0.248	1	17	0.341	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.166	0.261	0.267	OK
Ryan McMahon	3B	78	226	48	0.212	9	26	0.267	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.192	0.241	0.329	OK
Austin Wells	C	74	214	34	0.159	7	14	0.258	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.170	0.268	0.308	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	6	6	2	9	0.229

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Tristan Peters	CF	68	194	56	0.289	3	24	0.344	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.270	0.321	0.429	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	74	271	59	0.218	20	45	0.312	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.203	0.276	0.464	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	74	281	76	0.270	6	25	0.334	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.255	0.310	0.361	OK
Munetaka Murakami	IF	56	198	48	0.242	20	41	0.381	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.242	0.376	0.566	OK
Drew Romo	C	27	90	13	0.144	5	11	0.228	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.142	0.213	0.324	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	75	275	65	0.236	16	44	0.350	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.220	0.312	0.409	OK
Braden Montgomery	OF	12	42	11	0.262	1	5	0.311	4	3	2	1	0	0	1	0.667	0.256	0.308	0.438	OK
Sam Antonacci	SS	58	199	58	0.291	4	22	0.391	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.297	0.355	0.455	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	69	214	50	0.234	9	37	0.292	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.206	0.266	0.431	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	8	3	3	1	6	0.229

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Weathers	Starter	20	103.8	4.42	1.320	10.6	122	5.0	6	3	3	1	4	90	5.0	4	3
David Bednar	Middle Reliever	43	43.2	2.92	1.134	11.0	53	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	50	33.2	3.52	1.777	15.2	56	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	54	44.3	1.63	1.332	12.8	63	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever	38	53.3	2.36	1.144	7.4	44	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	1.0	1	0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Davis Martin	Starter	14	79.8	3.38	1.216	9.4	83	6.0	5	2	2	1	6	96	6.0	6	2
Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	1.48	1.311	11.8	8	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1	2.1	8.57	1.905	4.3	1	1.0	1	1	1	0	3	33	1.0	3	1
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	24	20.9	1.72	1.483	9.9	23	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	23	1.0	0	3

Game Summary

NYY wins 6-3

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds

PIT 55-54 (5.17 RPG / 4.83 RA)

4 - 3

CIN 50-57 (4.11 RPG / 4.77 RA)

WINNER: PIT wins 4-3 TARGET: PIT 4 - 3 CIN (PIT) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	0	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	4	9
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	4

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff-11

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

PIT Season Quality

Record55-54

Win%0.505

Run Diff37

RD/Game0.339

CIN Season Quality

Record50-57

Win%0.467

Run Diff-70

RD/Game-0.654

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0496; margin adjustment: -0.4408; applied: True

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake Mangum	CF	75	267	82	0.307	2	21	0.347	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	0.500	0.296	0.320	0.370	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	97	384	96	0.250	22	69	0.319	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.296	0.353	0.509	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	106	385	105	0.273	15	61	0.388	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.252	0.356	0.455	OK
Esmerlyn Valdez	RF	37	121	33	0.273	11	28	0.373	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.269	0.372	0.609	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	1B	89	341	96	0.282	17	68	0.341	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.272	0.331	0.468	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	99	380	118	0.311	4	45	0.363	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.292	0.327	0.369	OK
Endy Rodríguez	C	36	108	28	0.259	5	17	0.360	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.250	0.337	0.436	OK
Marcell Ozuna	DH	66	247	50	0.202	8	29	0.281	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.201	0.272	0.307	OK
Jacob Gonzalez	SS	9	23	4	0.174	0	1	0.174	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.225	0.272	0.314	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	36	9	4	4	3	9	0.250

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Elly De La Cruz	SS	87	347	96	0.277	18	47	0.353	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.242	0.315	0.448	OK
Sal Stewart	3B	106	403	103	0.256	22	79	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.258	0.333	0.474	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	77	278	65	0.234	18	45	0.338	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.145	0.255	0.348	OK
Eugenio Suárez	DH	76	277	57	0.206	14	39	0.275	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.196	0.258	0.377	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	74	227	58	0.256	11	32	0.327	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.270	0.328	0.466	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	80	257	64	0.249	8	29	0.325	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.274	0.340	0.452	OK
Dane Myers	CF	62	146	40	0.274	3	15	0.371	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.253	0.341	0.351	OK
Noelvi Marte	RF	46	152	29	0.191	6	14	0.231	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.189	0.225	0.304	OK
Edwin Arroyo	SS	40	131	32	0.244	0	5	0.286	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.240	0.269	0.282	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	31	4	3	3	4	11	0.129

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Yohan Ramírez	Starter	44	50.4	3.57	1.528	11.1	62	5.0	1	1	1	3	8	78	5.0	8	1
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	44	42.1	3.21	0.998	10.9	51	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	43	36.8	4.16	1.386	16.1	66	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	23	1.0	1	2
Carmen Mlodzinski	Middle Reliever	24	88.3	3.36	1.382	7.3	72	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	33	1.1	1	0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Rhett Lowder	Starter	18	74.2	5.82	1.631	7.9	65	4.0	9	4	4	2	5	97	4.0	5	4
Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	22	20.4	5.29	1.275	10.1	23	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0
Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	33	28.9	2.49	1.073	9.3	30	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	54	44.2	3.05	1.516	8.8	43	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.1	0	0
Caleb Ferguson	Middle Reliever	24	16.8	4.82	2.083	11.2	21	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

PIT wins 4-3

Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers

SEA 53-56 (4.02 RPG / 3.95 RA)

2 - 5

LAD 68-40 (5.15 RPG / 3.7 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 5-2 TARGET: SEA 2 - 5 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	6
LAD	0	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	x	5	8

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

SEA Season Quality

Record53-55

Win%0.491

Run Diff9

RD/Game0.083

LAD Season Quality

Record67-40

Win%0.626

Run Diff154

RD/Game1.439

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.5591; margin adjustment: 0.6548; applied: True

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Cole Young	2B	109	394	102	0.259	13	49	0.319	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.277	0.322	0.405	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	97	385	98	0.255	16	46	0.313	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.231	0.272	0.386	OK
Dominic Canzone	DH	92	269	71	0.264	18	49	0.331	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.281	0.331	0.606	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	101	371	103	0.278	13	47	0.371	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.218	0.279	0.387	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	102	399	104	0.261	8	38	0.323	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.255	0.305	0.329	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	76	280	46	0.164	11	36	0.269	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.160	0.253	0.312	OK
Luke Raley	RF	91	260	59	0.227	15	39	0.286	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.118	0.178	0.252	OK
J.P. Crawford	3B	86	307	65	0.212	10	30	0.330	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.202	0.309	0.325	OK
Colt Emerson	SS	56	180	36	0.200	7	21	0.263	3	3	1	1	2	0	1	0.333	0.207	0.260	0.318	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	33	6	2	2	0	11	0.182

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	98	375	108	0.288	23	63	0.394	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.300	0.396	0.551	OK
Andy Pages	CF	105	408	109	0.267	18	70	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.296	0.350	0.505	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	104	394	119	0.302	15	51	0.382	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.360	0.422	0.512	OK
Max Muncy	3B	97	324	82	0.253	21	49	0.348	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.234	0.321	0.510	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	69	277	64	0.231	13	34	0.284	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.221	0.265	0.358	OK
Tommy Edman	2B	29	102	33	0.324	2	16	0.389	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.314	0.354	0.469	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	98	358	85	0.237	9	51	0.326	4	3	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.213	0.296	0.408	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	71	255	63	0.247	8	36	0.316	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.240	0.304	0.368	OK
Dalton Rushing	C	66	208	54	0.260	11	33	0.326	3	3	2	1	0	0	0	0.667	0.289	0.336	0.463	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	8	5	5	2	6	0.258

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bryan Woo	Starter	20	114.4	4.41	1.145	9.0	114	5.1	7	5	5	1	4	92	5.1	4	5
Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	40	36.7	3.68	1.226	14.5	59	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	14	0.1	1	0
José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	48	39.1	2.99	1.458	8.3	36	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	15	1.1	1	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	50	40.0	3.38	1.475	10.6	47	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Roki Sasaki	Starter	18	91.8	4.80	1.318	9.2	94	5.0	6	2	2	0	8	88	5.0	8	2
Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	46	40.4	2.67	0.891	12.5	56	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	7	6.2	7.26	1.452	13.1	9	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	4	1.0	1	0
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	48	28.6	3.46	1.538	16.4	52	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	14	0.2	0	0
Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever	14	13.5	2.67	0.815	9.3	14	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 5-2

San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

SF 47-62 (4.26 RPG / 4.64 RA)

1 - 5

SD 55-53 (4.19 RPG / 4.36 RA)

WINNER: SD wins 5-1 TARGET: SF 1 - 5 SD (SD) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	5
SD	0	1	0	0	2	0	2	0	x	5	9

SF Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.2

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff11

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

SD Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs6.7

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff31

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak5W

SF Season Quality

Record47-62

Win%0.431

Run Diff-42

RD/Game-0.385

SD Season Quality

Record55-53

Win%0.509

Run Diff-18

RD/Game-0.167

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3358; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Luis Arraez	2B	101	401	134	0.334	4	42	0.370	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.354	0.382	0.442	OK
Heliot Ramos	LF	69	269	70	0.260	9	34	0.296	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.271	0.303	0.413	OK
Bryce Eldridge	DH	66	229	57	0.249	11	26	0.352	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.190	0.292	0.439	OK
Rafael Devers	1B	107	404	99	0.245	21	59	0.319	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.225	0.305	0.433	OK
Jung Hoo Lee	RF	96	364	111	0.305	5	38	0.339	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.257	0.279	0.390	OK
Willy Adames	SS	102	394	90	0.228	17	44	0.282	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.232	0.285	0.408	OK
Drew Gilbert	CF	77	215	52	0.242	4	21	0.308	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.184	0.252	0.275	OK
Drew Cavanaugh	C	20	46	12	0.261	0	3	0.393	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.177	0.322	0.227	OK
Christian Koss	3B	13	31	5	0.161	0	1	0.212	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.175	0.228	0.227	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	32	5	1	1	1	6	0.156

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	106	420	120	0.286	8	48	0.355	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.286	0.346	0.427	OK
Luis Rengifo	2B	11	36	13	0.361	2	8	0.425	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.249	0.322	0.352	OK
Manny Machado	3B	105	389	84	0.216	23	64	0.301	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.273	0.344	0.488	OK
Ty France	1B	76	256	73	0.285	16	46	0.336	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.302	0.331	0.530	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	104	407	96	0.236	15	48	0.288	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.303	0.342	0.519	OK
Luis Campusano	DH	33	91	26	0.286	4	14	0.387	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.277	0.370	0.469	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	102	354	77	0.218	9	39	0.313	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.195	0.297	0.278	OK
Jase Bowen	LF	23	54	8	0.148	0	5	0.193	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.170	0.200	0.226	OK
Freddy Fermin	C	53	155	26	0.168	3	11	0.256	3	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.196	0.261	0.305	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	9	5	5	1	5	0.273

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Logan Webb	Starter	19	118.3	3.96	1.124	7.1	93	6.0	7	3	3	1	4	101	6.0	4	3
Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	42	37.2	4.35	1.425	12.1	50	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	14	1.0	0	2
Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	35	26.9	3.01	1.524	14.7	44	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
JP Sears	Starter	6	26.6	4.06	1.241	7.8	23	5.0	5	1	1	0	4	78	5.0	4	1
Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	44	43.1	0.84	0.835	17.7	85	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	21	1.1	0	0
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	50	50.1	3.59	1.277	11.5	64	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.2	0	0
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	44	39.1	2.76	1.381	10.8	47	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

SD wins 5-1

Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays

TEX 55-54 (4.18 RPG / 4.39 RA)

3 - 5

TB 64-44 (4.45 RPG / 4.06 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 5-3 TARGET: TEX 3 - 5 TB (TB) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	7
TB	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	x	5	7

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff7

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

TB Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed2.1

Run Diff23

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

TEX Season Quality

Record55-53

Win%0.509

Run Diff-21

RD/Game-0.194

TB Season Quality

Record63-44

Win%0.589

Run Diff42

RD/Game0.393

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7063; margin adjustment: 0.2966; applied: True

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Wyatt Langford	LF	56	227	63	0.278	12	29	0.320	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.228	0.261	0.403	OK
Ezequiel Duran	3B	97	339	92	0.271	12	57	0.323	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.271	0.315	0.480	OK
Brandon Nimmo	DH	102	392	105	0.268	10	39	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.257	0.312	0.419	OK
Jake Burger	1B	103	382	91	0.238	19	66	0.299	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.222	0.274	0.422	OK
Justin Foscue	2B	51	125	33	0.264	7	19	0.311	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.231	0.272	0.444	OK
Cameron Cauley	CF	17	39	10	0.256	1	1	0.341	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.249	0.314	0.453	OK
Nicky Lopez	SS	50	147	46	0.313	1	18	0.354	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.284	0.334	0.325	OK
Austin Wynns	C	3	8	2	0.250	1	1	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.096	0.151	0.175	OK
Alejandro Osuna	RF	66	183	47	0.257	1	23	0.343	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.244	0.300	0.296	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	7	3	3	2	8	0.206

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	102	395	120	0.304	15	62	0.381	4	2	0	1	0	2	0	0.000	0.257	0.328	0.491	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	104	384	110	0.286	14	65	0.378	4	3	3	1	0	0	0	1.000	0.273	0.348	0.388	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	106	403	114	0.283	29	64	0.371	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.270	0.351	0.480	OK
Cedric Mullins	CF	90	313	63	0.201	12	33	0.279	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.200	0.262	0.324	OK
Jonny DeLuca	LF	59	194	51	0.263	6	32	0.299	4	4	1	1	1	0	3	0.250	0.260	0.296	0.420	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	36	112	25	0.223	8	17	0.307	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.155	0.246	0.321	OK
Ben Williamson	2B	74	229	58	0.253	2	24	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.253	0.304	0.356	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	79	249	54	0.217	0	21	0.308	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.192	0.272	0.286	OK
Hunter Feduccia	C	54	135	31	0.230	2	11	0.295	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.211	0.274	0.338	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	7	5	5	3	6	0.226

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cole Winn	Starter	39	29.5	7.32	1.627	11.0	36	4.0	5	5	5	1	2	69	4.0	2	5
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	39	47.2	1.33	0.614	9.7	51	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	7	1.0	1	0
Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	33	34.2	3.95	1.433	11.1	42	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	48	39.7	3.63	1.537	9.1	40	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	15	0.2	0	0
Robby Ahlstrom	Middle Reliever	23	17.1	4.74	1.404	8.9	17	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	13	0.1	0	0
Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	36	36.5	2.96	1.178	7.4	30	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shane McClanahan	Starter	19	93.9	3.16	1.161	8.4	88	5.2	5	3	3	2	5	94	5.2	5	3
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	43	40.4	1.56	0.866	9.6	43	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	16	1.1	2	0
Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	45	42.9	2.52	0.979	8.4	40	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	5	1.0	0	0
Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	36	28.4	3.80	1.373	13.6	43	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

TB wins 5-3

Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves

WAS 55-54 (5.47 RPG / 5.21 RA)

3 - 4

ATL 63-46 (4.84 RPG / 4.01 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 4-3 TARGET: WAS 3 - 4 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
WAS	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	x	4	7

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.6

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff16

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff-12

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

WAS Season Quality

Record55-54

Win%0.505

Run Diff28

RD/Game0.257

ATL Season Quality

Record63-46

Win%0.578

Run Diff91

RD/Game0.835

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6881; margin adjustment: 0.289; applied: True

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	DH	109	420	114	0.271	30	72	0.398	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.270	0.392	0.547	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	101	345	97	0.281	22	74	0.312	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.279	0.305	0.509	OK
Dylan Crews	RF	56	210	48	0.229	9	24	0.311	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.246	0.309	0.452	OK
CJ Abrams	SS	105	394	115	0.292	27	82	0.365	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.286	0.353	0.603	OK
Keibert Ruiz	C	68	225	60	0.267	7	36	0.297	4	4	3	1	2	0	1	0.750	0.223	0.253	0.376	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	107	412	101	0.245	11	52	0.297	4	4	3	1	0	0	1	0.750	0.234	0.280	0.371	OK
Nasim Nuñez	2B	95	307	75	0.244	1	31	0.326	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.193	0.281	0.259	OK
Jorbit Vivas	3B	73	196	47	0.240	3	17	0.318	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.221	0.300	0.324	OK
Jacob Young	CF	86	295	70	0.237	9	36	0.290	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.235	0.282	0.375	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	38	11	3	3	1	11	0.289

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drake Baldwin	C	85	326	93	0.285	20	56	0.376	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.307	0.380	0.466	OK
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	56	206	50	0.243	7	22	0.363	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.203	0.299	0.333	OK
Matt Olson	1B	108	419	110	0.263	28	66	0.339	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.241	0.321	0.475	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	102	390	115	0.295	19	61	0.322	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.257	0.281	0.407	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	108	420	110	0.262	18	60	0.313	4	3	0	1	1	1	0	0.000	0.258	0.304	0.482	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	104	390	102	0.262	10	55	0.312	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.216	0.263	0.321	OK
Mike Yastrzemski	DH	89	242	54	0.223	6	27	0.308	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.217	0.297	0.343	OK
Austin Riley	3B	108	389	82	0.211	12	50	0.290	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.168	0.230	0.275	OK
Jim Jarvis	SS	22	68	17	0.250	1	8	0.292	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.204	0.242	0.352	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	7	4	4	3	4	0.226

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cade Cavalli	Starter	23	114.1	3.63	1.323	10.3	130	5.1	5	4	4	3	3	94	5.1	3	4
Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	33	29.4	3.37	1.293	10.4	34	2.0	1	0	0	0	0	20	2.0	0	0
Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	34	28.4	4.12	1.373	9.8	31	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	17	0.2	1	0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Grant Holmes	Starter	21	97.0	4.08	1.433	7.9	85	5.0	10	3	3	0	6	96	5.0	6	3
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	37	36.6	2.46	1.093	10.6	43	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	20	1.0	0	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	50	42.6	2.54	0.845	12.7	60	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.0	2	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	37	40.1	2.92	1.322	12.3	55	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.1	1	0
Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	44	33.2	4.88	1.446	10.3	38	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	13	0.2	2	0

Game Summary

ATL wins 4-3

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics

BOS Recent Form

OAK Recent Form

BOS Season Quality

OAK Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

CHC Recent Form

STL Recent Form

CHC Season Quality

STL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

KC Recent Form

MIN Recent Form

KC Season Quality

MIN Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

MIA Recent Form

NYM Recent Form

MIA Season Quality

NYM Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox

NYY Recent Form

CHW Recent Form

NYY Season Quality

CHW Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds

PIT Recent Form

CIN Recent Form

PIT Season Quality

CIN Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers

SEA Recent Form

LAD Recent Form

SEA Season Quality

LAD Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres