MLB Predictions — July 29, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
ARI @ PIT	4 - 6	4 - 6	PIT	PIT	PIT wins 6-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
ATL @ NYM	6 - 2	6 - 2	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 6-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
ATL @ NYM	7 - 2	7 - 2	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 7-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BAL @ DET	0 - 4	0 - 4	DET	DET	DET wins 4-0	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BOS @ OAK	4 - 3	4 - 3	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 4-3	58%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ STL	5 - 4	5 - 4	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 5-4	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ CIN	3 - 4	3 - 4	CIN	CIN	CIN wins 4-3	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
COL @ SD	3 - 4	3 - 4	SD	SD	SD wins 4-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ LAA	6 - 4	6 - 4	HOU	HOU	HOU wins 6-4	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
KC @ MIN	2 - 4	2 - 4	MIN	MIN	MIN wins 4-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ SF	3 - 2	3 - 2	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 3-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYY @ CHW	5 - 3	5 - 3	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 5-3	58%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PHI @ MIA	5 - 2	5 - 2	PHI	PHI	PHI wins 5-2	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SEA @ LAD	3 - 5	3 - 5	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 5-3	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TEX @ TB	3 - 6	3 - 6	TB	TB	TB wins 6-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TOR @ WAS	4 - 2	4 - 2	TOR	TOR	TOR wins 4-2	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates

ARI 57-52 (4.51 RPG / 4.51 RA)

4 - 6

PIT 55-54 (5.17 RPG / 4.83 RA)

WINNER: PIT wins 6-4 TARGET: ARI 4 - 6 PIT (PIT) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	4	7
PIT	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	3	x	6	9

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs6.1

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff10

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak3L

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-3

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

ARI Season Quality

Record55-52

Win%0.514

Run Diff-4

RD/Game-0.037

PIT Season Quality

Record55-52

Win%0.514

Run Diff41

RD/Game0.383

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4206; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ryan Waldschmidt	CF	32	112	29	0.259	0	8	0.314	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.157	0.210	0.285	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	75	257	61	0.237	4	27	0.354	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.222	0.344	0.335	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	73	297	78	0.263	12	46	0.315	4	4	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.277	0.329	0.461	OK
Tim Tawa	LF	14	36	5	0.139	0	2	0.238	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.216	0.301	0.333	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	51	174	48	0.276	6	25	0.358	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.283	0.358	0.468	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	73	247	59	0.239	8	32	0.315	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.233	0.293	0.346	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	75	278	79	0.284	13	42	0.372	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.282	0.360	0.551	OK
Max Kepler	LF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.248	0.312	0.408
Ildemaro Vargas	1B	62	230	60	0.261	7	37	0.299	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.190	0.247	0.301	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	4	4	3	9	0.206

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake Mangum	CF	75	267	82	0.307	2	21	0.347	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.285	0.314	0.376	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	96	380	95	0.250	22	69	0.319	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.246	0.307	0.417	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	105	382	104	0.272	15	61	0.387	5	5	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.228	0.322	0.388	OK
Esmerlyn Valdez	RF	36	118	33	0.280	11	28	0.377	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.260	0.368	0.572	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	1B	88	337	96	0.285	17	68	0.345	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.253	0.316	0.419	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	98	376	117	0.311	4	45	0.364	4	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.292	0.331	0.380	OK
Endy Rodríguez	C	36	108	28	0.259	5	17	0.360	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.260	0.359	0.463	OK
Marcell Ozuna	DH	65	244	50	0.205	8	29	0.284	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.194	0.272	0.304	OK
Jacob Gonzalez	SS	9	23	4	0.174	0	1	0.174	4	2	2	1	2	2	0	1.000	0.215	0.263	0.325	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	32	9	6	6	6	5	0.281

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	15	86.7	2.49	1.257	6.7	65	6.2	5	2	2	1	5	115	6.2	5	2
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	29	1.0	0	0
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	2	2.1	0.00	0.476	8.6	2	0.1	0	1	1	3	0	22	0.1	0	1
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1	1.0	9.00	2.000	0.0	0	0.0	4	3	3	1	0	21	0.0	0	3

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jared Jones	Starter	10	45.3	3.77	1.038	10.5	53	5.2	6	3	3	2	8	97	5.2	8	3
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	44	42.1	3.21	0.998	10.9	51	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	19	1.1	0	0
Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	43	36.8	4.16	1.386	16.1	66	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	20	1.0	1	1
Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	44	50.4	3.57	1.528	11.1	62	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

PIT wins 6-4

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets

ATL 62-46 (4.88 RPG / 4.05 RA)

6 - 2

NYM 46-62 (4.16 RPG / 4.62 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 6-2 TARGET: ATL 6 - 2 NYM (ATL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	6	8
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	8

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed5.8

Run Diff-10

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff14

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak2W

ATL Season Quality

Record62-45

Win%0.579

Run Diff91

RD/Game0.850

NYM Season Quality

Record45-62

Win%0.421

Run Diff-51

RD/Game-0.477

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.5654; margin adjustment: -0.6575; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	54	199	50	0.251	7	22	0.371	4	4	0	1	0	0	3	0.000	0.258	0.354	0.423	OK
Drake Baldwin	DH	83	318	89	0.280	20	56	0.373	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.281	0.362	0.494	OK
Matt Olson	1B	106	411	108	0.263	27	63	0.341	4	3	2	1	4	1	0	0.667	0.234	0.316	0.445	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	106	413	109	0.264	18	60	0.314	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.248	0.292	0.460	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	100	383	115	0.300	19	61	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.289	0.311	0.500	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	102	382	100	0.262	10	55	0.313	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.238	0.287	0.356	OK
Austin Riley	3B	106	382	82	0.215	12	50	0.293	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.234	0.293	0.370	OK
Joey Bart	C	17	43	8	0.186	2	7	0.300	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.242	0.286	0.394	OK
Jim Jarvis	SS	21	64	16	0.250	1	8	0.294	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.215	0.255	0.365	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	35	8	6	6	1	8	0.229

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
A.J. Ewing	LF	66	236	65	0.275	7	26	0.347	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.243	0.309	0.365	OK
Francisco Lindor	SS	49	193	45	0.233	8	23	0.318	5	5	3	1	1	0	2	0.600	0.228	0.304	0.438	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	103	414	108	0.261	10	53	0.304	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.254	0.295	0.345	OK
Carson Benge	RF	99	378	97	0.257	11	40	0.322	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.221	0.280	0.324	OK
Luis Robert Jr.	CF	30	106	22	0.208	4	10	0.306	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.201	0.291	0.365	OK
Jorge Polanco	DH	25	94	14	0.149	1	4	0.208	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.169	0.222	0.254	OK
Jared Young	1B	55	162	40	0.247	6	16	0.318	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.159	0.212	0.294	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	86	310	68	0.219	12	35	0.277	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.220	0.280	0.427	OK
Francisco Alvarez	C	68	225	57	0.253	11	25	0.332	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.242	0.335	0.421	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	8	2	2	1	10	0.229

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Chris Sale	Starter	19	109.6	2.22	1.068	11.0	134	6.0	5	0	0	0	7	96	6.0	7	0
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	36	35.6	2.53	1.124	10.9	43	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	26	1.0	0	2
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	49	41.6	2.60	0.865	13.0	60	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	18	1.0	2	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	35	38.9	3.01	1.311	11.8	51	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.0	1	0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sean Manaea	Starter	22	82.4	4.70	1.408	9.2	84	5.2	7	6	6	0	6	92	5.2	6	6
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	37	32.1	4.21	1.620	13.5	48	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	40	39.9	2.03	0.877	9.7	43	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	43	33.3	2.43	1.321	10.5	39	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	6	1.0	1	0
Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	44	43.2	3.12	1.204	9.8	47	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	16	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

ATL wins 6-2

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets

ATL 62-46 (4.88 RPG / 4.05 RA)

7 - 2

NYM 46-62 (4.16 RPG / 4.62 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 7-2 TARGET: ATL 7 - 2 NYM (ATL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	3	0	7	10
NYM	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	7

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed5.8

Run Diff-10

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff14

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak2W

ATL Season Quality

Record62-45

Win%0.579

Run Diff91

RD/Game0.850

NYM Season Quality

Record45-62

Win%0.421

Run Diff-51

RD/Game-0.477

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.5654; margin adjustment: -0.6575; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	54	199	50	0.251	7	22	0.371	5	4	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.258	0.354	0.424	OK
Drake Baldwin	DH	83	318	89	0.280	20	56	0.373	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.281	0.362	0.495	OK
Matt Olson	1B	106	411	108	0.263	27	63	0.341	5	4	2	1	2	1	1	0.500	0.234	0.316	0.446	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	106	413	109	0.264	18	60	0.314	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.248	0.292	0.460	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	100	383	115	0.300	19	61	0.326	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.289	0.311	0.500	OK
Mauricio Dubón	SS	102	382	100	0.262	10	55	0.313	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.238	0.287	0.356	OK
Austin Riley	3B	106	382	82	0.215	12	50	0.293	4	3	1	1	3	1	1	0.333	0.234	0.293	0.370	OK
Eli White	LF	54	125	28	0.224	5	17	0.269	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.207	0.258	0.378	OK
Joey Bart	C	17	43	8	0.186	2	7	0.300	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.238	0.282	0.389	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	37	10	7	7	3	8	0.270

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
A.J. Ewing	CF	66	236	65	0.275	7	26	0.347	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.243	0.309	0.365	OK
Francisco Lindor	SS	49	193	45	0.233	8	23	0.318	4	4	3	0	0	0	1	0.750	0.228	0.304	0.438	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	103	414	108	0.261	10	53	0.304	4	4	2	1	1	0	2	0.500	0.255	0.295	0.346	OK
Carson Benge	RF	99	378	97	0.257	11	40	0.322	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.221	0.280	0.324	OK
Jared Young	1B	55	162	40	0.247	6	16	0.318	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.159	0.212	0.294	OK
Jorge Polanco	DH	25	94	14	0.149	1	4	0.208	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.169	0.222	0.254	OK
Tyrone Taylor	LF	53	133	33	0.248	8	25	0.291	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.258	0.304	0.538	OK
Brett Baty	2B	92	306	69	0.225	6	33	0.291	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.207	0.267	0.351	OK
Francisco Alvarez	C	68	225	57	0.253	11	25	0.332	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.242	0.335	0.421	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	7	2	2	2	12	0.206

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Chris Sale	Starter	19	109.6	2.22	1.068	11.0	134	6.0	5	2	2	2	9	99	6.0	9	2
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	36	35.6	2.53	1.124	10.9	43	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	49	41.6	2.60	0.865	13.0	60	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	18	1.0	2	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	35	38.9	3.01	1.311	11.8	51	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0
Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	43	32.2	5.03	1.491	10.6	38	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	12	0.0	0	0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Christian Scott	Starter	14	59.6	3.32	1.342	11.8	78	5.2	6	3	3	2	6	109	5.2	6	3
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	37	32.1	4.21	1.620	13.5	48	1.1	1	1	1	1	1	25	1.1	1	1
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	40	39.9	2.03	0.877	9.7	43	1.0	3	3	3	0	1	22	1.0	1	3
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	43	33.3	2.43	1.321	10.5	39	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

ATL wins 7-2

Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers

BAL 53-56 (4.6 RPG / 4.82 RA)

0 - 4

DET 51-58 (4.34 RPG / 3.99 RA)

WINNER: DET wins 4-0 TARGET: BAL 0 - 4 DET (DET) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
DET	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	x	4	4

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff-7

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

DET Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff7

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

BAL Season Quality

Record52-56

Win%0.481

Run Diff-25

RD/Game-0.231

DET Season Quality

Record51-57

Win%0.472

Run Diff39

RD/Game0.361

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.5787; margin adjustment: 0.2431; applied: True

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Taylor Ward	LF	104	388	97	0.250	7	27	0.384	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.225	0.344	0.329	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	105	393	99	0.252	22	67	0.348	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.240	0.324	0.424	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	104	431	94	0.218	17	44	0.289	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.195	0.253	0.353	OK
Tyler O'Neill	RF	63	169	36	0.213	7	16	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.243	0.306	0.420	OK
Coby Mayo	DH	78	243	49	0.202	14	38	0.267	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.227	0.274	0.448	OK
Leody Taveras	CF	87	280	63	0.225	5	38	0.306	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.124	0.224	0.242	OK
Jeremiah Jackson	2B	65	210	51	0.243	6	32	0.265	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.215	0.239	0.330	OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	3B	6	23	7	0.304	2	7	0.360	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.247	0.307	0.460	OK
Yohel Pozo	C	1	3	1	0.333	0	0	0.333	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.220	0.229	0.305	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	32	5	0	0	1	7	0.156

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Gleyber Torres	DH	51	184	50	0.272	5	23	0.387	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.243	0.351	0.380	OK
Kevin McGonigle	3B	103	390	113	0.290	9	36	0.395	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.288	0.378	0.413	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	2B	63	182	50	0.275	6	25	0.307	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.300	0.337	0.507	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	98	363	99	0.273	22	68	0.337	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.254	0.300	0.457	OK
Riley Greene	LF	106	382	108	0.283	15	52	0.372	4	2	1	1	3	2	1	0.500	0.245	0.332	0.425	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	106	361	74	0.205	19	51	0.299	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.220	0.306	0.378	OK
Javier Báez	SS	25	82	23	0.280	2	6	0.302	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.263	0.282	0.434	OK
Matt Vierling	CF	82	260	50	0.192	5	30	0.243	3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.118	0.170	0.204	OK
Ben Malgeri	RF	14	35	10	0.286	0	5	0.333	3	1	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.236	0.295	0.346	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	28	4	4	4	6	8	0.143

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trevor Rogers	Starter	19	100.4	4.30	1.315	7.4	83	6.0	4	4	4	4	6	104	6.0	6	4
Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	35	27.4	3.94	1.533	9.2	28	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	13	0.0	0	0
Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever	41	47.5	3.03	1.074	10.0	53	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	15	1.0	2	0
Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	49	41.1	3.28	0.973	10.7	49	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	46	28.9	2.49	1.073	9.3	30	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	10	0.0	0	0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tarik Skubal	Starter	15	87.9	2.76	0.944	11.3	110	6.0	4	0	0	1	7	92	6.0	7	0
Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	30	25.8	3.49	1.240	10.8	31	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	44	40.4	2.45	1.559	8.0	36	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	45	39.4	3.65	1.599	8.5	37	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

DET wins 4-0

Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics

BOS 55-51 (4.2 RPG / 3.75 RA)

4 - 3

OAK 45-62 (4.43 RPG / 5.61 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 4-3 TARGET: BOS 4 - 3 OAK (BOS) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	9
OAK	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	3	7

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff11

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed6.9

Run Diff-21

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak3L

BOS Season Quality

Record55-50

Win%0.524

Run Diff48

RD/Game0.457

OAK Season Quality

Record44-62

Win%0.415

Run Diff-127

RD/Game-1.198

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.8183; margin adjustment: -0.7637; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jahmai Jones	LF	7	11	4	0.364	1	4	0.417	5	4	1	1	0	1	2	0.250	0.136	0.204	0.257	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	98	383	106	0.277	10	48	0.319	5	4	2	1	2	1	0	0.500	0.254	0.281	0.438	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	102	390	99	0.254	15	52	0.326	5	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.223	0.293	0.415	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	96	340	96	0.282	22	66	0.387	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.242	0.343	0.447	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	95	320	73	0.228	10	41	0.293	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.240	0.290	0.378	OK
Romy Gonzalez	DH	18	60	12	0.200	1	7	0.284	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.222	0.280	0.369	OK
Andruw Monasterio	SS	62	181	45	0.249	5	18	0.305	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.180	0.256	0.353	OK
Nick Sogard	2B	11	35	9	0.257	0	2	0.350	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.234	0.321	0.396	OK
Connor Wong	C	46	130	36	0.277	2	17	0.367	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.160	0.238	0.286	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	36	9	4	4	5	9	0.250

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jacob Wilson	SS	67	271	74	0.273	7	32	0.305	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.215	0.239	0.337	OK
Nick Kurtz	1B	96	346	90	0.260	21	69	0.398	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.199	0.320	0.400	OK
Tommy White	3B	10	39	14	0.359	0	0	0.390	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.267	0.299	0.371	OK
Tyler Soderstrom	LF	95	341	85	0.249	17	50	0.346	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.245	0.328	0.445	OK
Jonah Heim	C	48	161	35	0.217	9	25	0.264	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.211	0.257	0.379	OK
Colby Thomas	DH	48	111	23	0.207	4	11	0.241	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.212	0.238	0.322	OK
Henry Bolte	CF	61	205	51	0.249	3	18	0.322	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.221	0.279	0.304	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	92	266	53	0.199	5	26	0.294	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.213	0.305	0.325	OK
Alika Williams	2B	36	103	27	0.262	2	9	0.290	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.134	0.158	0.251	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	34	7	3	3	1	7	0.206

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Patrick Sandoval	Starter	3	13.3	3.38	1.729	8.8	13	4.2	5	3	3	1	6	82	4.2	6	3
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	35	34.2	1.05	1.140	11.8	45	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	40	38.3	2.11	0.888	9.6	41	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	30	21.2	5.94	1.698	14.4	34	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	24	1.2	1	0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jacob Lopez	Starter	16	62.1	6.38	1.739	7.7	53	4.0	7	4	4	2	5	91	4.0	5	4
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	51	38.9	4.16	1.825	15.0	65	1.2	1	0	0	1	2	37	1.2	2	0
Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	29	26.8	6.04	1.455	12.4	37	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	1.0	2	0
Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	34	44.7	3.62	1.499	11.7	58	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	24	1.1	0	0
José Suarez	Middle Reliever	28	31.4	4.30	1.369	10.0	35	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	20	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

BOS wins 4-3

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

CHC 61-46 (5.21 RPG / 4.39 RA)

5 - 4

STL 53-54 (4.4 RPG / 4.52 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 5-4 TARGET: CHC 5 - 4 STL (CHC) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	1	5	7
STL	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	4	9

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs7.2

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff39

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak2W

STL Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed5.2

Run Diff-18

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak3L

CHC Season Quality

Record61-46

Win%0.570

Run Diff88

RD/Game0.822

STL Season Quality

Record53-54

Win%0.495

Run Diff-13

RD/Game-0.121

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0561; margin adjustment: -0.4436; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	105	392	113	0.288	23	61	0.387	5	5	2	1	1	0	2	0.400	0.275	0.359	0.538	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	90	341	93	0.273	18	60	0.360	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.261	0.340	0.460	OK
Michael Busch	1B	104	391	96	0.246	12	55	0.362	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	0.667	0.252	0.345	0.391	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	103	408	101	0.248	11	46	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.260	0.339	0.416	OK
Ian Happ	LF	100	373	83	0.223	18	47	0.334	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.230	0.334	0.403	OK
Michael Conforto	DH	68	160	39	0.244	9	23	0.320	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.162	0.243	0.318	OK
Pedro Ramirez	2B	31	84	28	0.333	1	14	0.374	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.222	0.275	0.378	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	99	342	75	0.219	14	54	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.247	0.321	0.386	OK
Miguel Amaya	C	47	146	36	0.247	3	18	0.341	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.246	0.305	0.355	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	5	5	3	15	0.206

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	99	390	99	0.254	15	39	0.349	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.208	0.290	0.313	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	103	394	112	0.284	20	72	0.348	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.222	0.284	0.378	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	104	386	91	0.236	11	42	0.356	4	2	1	0	0	2	0	0.500	0.224	0.294	0.351	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	104	399	114	0.286	15	70	0.345	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.269	0.319	0.414	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	96	353	86	0.244	4	44	0.314	4	4	3	1	0	0	1	0.750	0.244	0.304	0.331	OK
José Fermín	LF	67	183	46	0.251	5	22	0.312	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.212	0.281	0.344	OK
Blaze Jordan	3B	33	109	25	0.229	1	22	0.254	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.219	0.259	0.350	OK
Nathan Church	CF	80	261	60	0.230	8	30	0.270	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.203	0.244	0.306	OK
Pedro Pagés	C	51	150	31	0.207	4	11	0.248	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.169	0.211	0.269	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	36	9	4	4	2	10	0.250

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Matthew Boyd	Starter	11	56.9	3.95	1.283	8.7	55	5.2	5	3	3	2	6	106	5.2	6	3
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	46	40.9	3.08	1.443	11.4	52	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	20	1.0	2	0
Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	28	30.0	2.40	1.067	4.5	15	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	35	25.4	4.61	1.417	14.2	40	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	13	0.2	0	0
Ryan Rolison	Middle Reliever	37	32.5	3.32	1.631	11.6	42	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	18	0.2	1	1

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Dustin May	Starter	20	101.9	4.68	1.344	9.1	103	5.0	1	0	0	0	9	85	5.0	9	0
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	42	39.8	3.84	1.281	9.9	44	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	23	1.0	2	1
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	47	40.5	4.00	1.259	9.6	43	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	44	33.8	5.06	1.657	11.4	43	1.0	3	3	3	2	2	30	1.0	2	3
Gordon Graceffo	Middle Reliever	44	44.1	3.88	1.361	6.9	34	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	24	1.0	1	1

Game Summary

CHC wins 5-4

Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds

CLE 55-54 (3.91 RPG / 4.08 RA)

3 - 4

CIN 50-56 (4.14 RPG / 4.75 RA)

WINNER: CIN wins 4-3 TARGET: CLE 3 - 4 CIN (CIN) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3	9
CIN	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	x	4	5

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff-13

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-10

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

CLE Season Quality

Record55-54

Win%0.505

Run Diff-19

RD/Game-0.174

CIN Season Quality

Record50-56

Win%0.472

Run Diff-65

RD/Game-0.613

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4882; margin adjustment: -0.2051; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	LF	96	335	81	0.242	1	18	0.340	5	3	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.249	0.333	0.324	OK
José Ramírez	3B	77	290	69	0.238	10	35	0.333	5	4	1	1	2	1	2	0.250	0.220	0.305	0.343	OK
Chase DeLauter	DH	88	333	94	0.282	11	51	0.348	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.241	0.317	0.379	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	104	363	98	0.270	9	50	0.328	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.236	0.283	0.358	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	76	282	68	0.241	9	32	0.340	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.232	0.323	0.355	OK
Angel Martínez	RF	66	241	54	0.224	11	33	0.260	4	4	3	1	0	0	1	0.750	0.121	0.145	0.244	OK
Kyle Manzardo	1B	96	296	63	0.213	12	36	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.205	0.278	0.392	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	40	120	28	0.233	4	14	0.279	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.206	0.262	0.349	OK
Petey Halpin	CF	37	95	19	0.200	2	5	0.238	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.127	0.159	0.230	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	36	9	3	3	5	12	0.250

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Elly De La Cruz	SS	86	343	96	0.280	18	47	0.355	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.251	0.322	0.447	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	105	398	102	0.256	22	79	0.335	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.252	0.325	0.457	OK
Dane Myers	CF	61	144	39	0.271	3	15	0.361	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.179	0.268	0.264	OK
Eugenio Suárez	DH	75	273	56	0.205	14	39	0.276	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.205	0.267	0.412	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	79	254	63	0.248	8	29	0.323	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.259	0.319	0.427	OK
Noelvi Marte	RF	45	148	28	0.189	6	13	0.231	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.197	0.235	0.313	OK
Ivan Johnson	LF	4	7	1	0.143	0	0	0.250	3	3	2	1	1	0	0	0.667	0.113	0.213	0.173	OK
Edwin Arroyo	2B	39	127	31	0.244	0	5	0.287	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.226	0.259	0.296	OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3B	45	145	21	0.145	3	6	0.200	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.170	0.217	0.283	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	29	5	4	4	3	4	0.172

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Joey Cantillo	Starter	22	107.1	4.12	1.494	9.7	116	5.0	4	3	3	3	2	93	5.0	2	3
Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	46	46.2	2.73	1.126	13.2	68	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	40	29.3	3.07	1.468	10.1	33	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	14	0.2	0	1
Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	40	35.4	1.78	0.904	10.4	41	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brady Singer	Starter	20	101.0	4.63	1.416	7.8	88	5.2	5	3	3	2	6	107	5.2	6	3
Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	22	20.4	5.29	1.275	10.1	23	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	29	1.0	2	0
Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	33	28.9	2.49	1.073	9.3	30	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	1.0	2	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	54	44.2	3.05	1.516	8.8	43	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	31	1.0	1	0
Caleb Ferguson	Middle Reliever	23	16.6	4.88	2.108	11.4	21	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	16	0.1	1	0

Game Summary

CIN wins 4-3

Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres

COL 42-67 (4.72 RPG / 5.76 RA)

3 - 4

SD 55-53 (4.19 RPG / 4.36 RA)

WINNER: SD wins 4-3 TARGET: COL 3 - 4 SD (SD) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	8
SD	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	x	4	6

COL Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed6.5

Run Diff-23

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak2L

SD Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs6.3

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff22

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak3W

COL Season Quality

Record42-65

Win%0.393

Run Diff-110

RD/Game-1.028

SD Season Quality

Record53-53

Win%0.500

Run Diff-21

RD/Game-0.198

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9911; margin adjustment: 0.4163; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	LF	87	324	96	0.296	10	58	0.335	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.249	0.278	0.420	OK
Mickey Moniak	DH	68	237	66	0.278	17	46	0.318	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.259	0.292	0.505	OK
Hunter Goodman	C	99	371	95	0.256	31	60	0.327	4	3	2	1	0	0	1	0.667	0.244	0.310	0.465	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	102	368	109	0.296	13	52	0.378	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.258	0.332	0.412	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	98	301	80	0.266	9	37	0.366	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.260	0.358	0.416	OK
Cole Carrigg	CF	39	133	40	0.301	5	26	0.370	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.277	0.343	0.491	OK
Willi Castro	2B	91	324	84	0.259	11	45	0.331	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.236	0.300	0.445	OK
Troy Johnston	RF	91	298	86	0.289	3	40	0.350	4	4	3	1	0	0	1	0.750	0.225	0.286	0.332	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	96	333	67	0.201	8	34	0.249	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.200	0.254	0.311	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	8	3	3	2	10	0.229

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	105	417	119	0.285	8	48	0.353	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.274	0.339	0.417	OK
Jake Cronenworth	2B	55	180	38	0.211	3	13	0.311	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.247	0.333	0.331	OK
Manny Machado	3B	104	385	83	0.216	23	64	0.302	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.271	0.346	0.488	OK
Ty France	1B	75	253	72	0.285	16	46	0.333	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.298	0.329	0.542	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	103	404	95	0.235	15	47	0.287	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.290	0.331	0.498	OK
Luis Rengifo	LF	10	33	13	0.394	2	7	0.459	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.187	0.265	0.300	OK
Gavin Sheets	DH	100	310	67	0.216	14	42	0.317	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.231	0.321	0.363	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	101	351	77	0.219	9	39	0.315	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.220	0.326	0.310	OK
Freddy Fermin	C	52	152	25	0.164	3	11	0.254	3	3	1	0	0	0	2	0.333	0.203	0.268	0.307	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	30	6	4	4	4	4	0.200

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gabriel Hughes	Starter	4	19.1	2.83	1.152	9.0	19	5.1	2	1	1	3	2	97	5.1	2	1
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	33	46.3	4.08	1.447	8.7	45	2.1	2	0	0	0	1	39	2.1	1	0
Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	43	40.8	6.40	1.838	10.6	48	0.1	2	3	3	1	1	18	0.1	1	3

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kyle Hart	Starter	27	34.5	5.74	1.217	8.6	33	4.2	2	2	2	1	4	74	4.2	4	2
Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	43	42.1	0.86	0.855	17.7	83	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	50	50.1	3.59	1.277	11.5	64	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	21	1.0	0	0
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	43	38.9	2.78	1.362	10.6	46	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	17	1.0	2	0
Wandy Peralta	Middle Reliever	46	46.8	3.46	1.517	6.3	33	1.0	3	1	1	1	2	26	1.0	2	1

Game Summary

SD wins 4-3

Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels

HOU 54-55 (4.57 RPG / 4.97 RA)

6 - 4

LAA 42-66 (4.26 RPG / 4.89 RA)

WINNER: HOU wins 6-4 TARGET: HOU 6 - 4 LAA (HOU) Confidence: 57.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	1	0	6	9
LAA	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	6

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff2

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs2.8

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff-12

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

HOU Season Quality

Record53-55

Win%0.491

Run Diff-45

RD/Game-0.417

LAA Season Quality

Record42-65

Win%0.393

Run Diff-67

RD/Game-0.626

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3568; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	60	236	74	0.314	11	30	0.367	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.310	0.350	0.516	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	106	384	126	0.328	35	80	0.439	5	4	2	1	2	1	1	0.500	0.293	0.405	0.568	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	101	369	92	0.249	14	58	0.345	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.232	0.303	0.376	OK
Christian Walker	1B	104	383	91	0.238	21	62	0.314	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.237	0.299	0.427	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	84	328	76	0.232	12	30	0.295	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.232	0.284	0.357	OK
Taylor Trammell	LF	48	131	31	0.237	5	14	0.301	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.160	0.223	0.325	OK
Yainer Diaz	C	48	185	43	0.232	6	22	0.262	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.226	0.258	0.352	OK
Cam Smith	RF	100	348	71	0.204	13	35	0.280	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.178	0.242	0.337	OK
Lucas Spence	CF	10	33	5	0.152	0	2	0.222	4	2	2	1	1	2	0	1.000	0.191	0.234	0.282	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	36	9	6	6	3	7	0.250

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	105	414	97	0.234	19	46	0.325	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.212	0.289	0.370	OK
Mike Trout	DH	89	320	78	0.244	18	40	0.394	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.261	0.391	0.415	OK
Nolan Schanuel	1B	87	326	91	0.279	6	37	0.351	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.259	0.324	0.354	OK
Vaughn Grissom	2B	64	227	60	0.264	7	43	0.328	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.273	0.324	0.453	OK
Jo Adell	RF	107	411	99	0.241	16	60	0.290	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.231	0.265	0.408	OK
Wade Meckler	LF	46	141	41	0.291	2	17	0.355	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.253	0.315	0.360	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	34	132	31	0.235	4	14	0.284	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.205	0.249	0.309	OK
Josh Lowe	CF	61	188	38	0.202	8	22	0.249	3	2	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.193	0.245	0.309	OK
Tyler Heineman	C	10	31	7	0.226	0	2	0.294	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.202	0.244	0.296	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	6	4	4	0	10	0.182

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Hunter Brown	Starter	9	45.6	3.55	1.316	9.9	50	5.1	6	4	4	0	5	91	5.1	5	4
Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	23	21.3	0.85	0.798	13.9	33	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14	1.0	2	0
Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	52	45.9	2.35	0.937	10.6	54	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.2	0	0
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	39	33.4	5.39	1.647	12.7	47	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	19	1.0	3	0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Grayson Rodriguez	Starter	9	36.9	9.02	1.897	7.3	30	4.0	7	4	4	1	3	82	4.0	3	4
Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	44	45.8	4.13	1.310	14.0	71	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	28	23.0	3.52	1.174	12.5	32	1.1	1	1	1	1	1	11	1.1	1	1
Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	39	39.2	4.82	1.480	10.6	46	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	20	1.1	1	1
Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	18	18.4	2.45	0.978	15.7	32	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	21	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

HOU wins 6-4

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

KC 45-63 (4.19 RPG / 5.08 RA)

2 - 4

MIN 54-54 (4.76 RPG / 5.0 RA)

WINNER: MIN wins 4-2 TARGET: KC 2 - 4 MIN (MIN) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	9
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	x	4	5

KC Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff-10

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff-15

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak3W

KC Season Quality

Record45-63

Win%0.417

Run Diff-97

RD/Game-0.898

MIN Season Quality

Record54-54

Win%0.500

Run Diff-26

RD/Game-0.241

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7824; margin adjustment: 0.3286; applied: True

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	C	98	349	83	0.238	14	52	0.307	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.221	0.289	0.376	OK
Lane Thomas	CF	88	274	63	0.230	10	36	0.323	5	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.216	0.298	0.386	OK
Jac Caglianone	RF	98	346	85	0.246	16	37	0.305	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.128	0.191	0.255	OK
Salvador Perez	1B	99	384	82	0.214	15	45	0.264	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.219	0.256	0.402	OK
Michael Massey	2B	85	263	71	0.270	8	36	0.307	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.244	0.288	0.420	OK
Nick Loftin	3B	68	211	53	0.251	5	34	0.332	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.260	0.333	0.434	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	94	300	72	0.240	6	34	0.341	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.233	0.320	0.389	OK
Josh Rojas	DH	20	50	13	0.260	1	6	0.275	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.164	0.188	0.270	OK
Tyler Tolbert	SS	27	65	20	0.308	2	5	0.352	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.145	0.204	0.225	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	9	2	2	3	9	0.250

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trevor Larnach	LF	85	278	81	0.291	8	37	0.375	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.197	0.284	0.352	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	100	380	94	0.247	15	55	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.225	0.278	0.365	OK
Kody Clemens	2B	92	341	83	0.243	18	49	0.301	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.170	0.219	0.366	OK
Josh Bell	DH	104	382	94	0.246	13	63	0.305	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.232	0.288	0.366	OK
Royce Lewis	1B	73	261	56	0.215	10	33	0.300	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.221	0.315	0.381	OK
Victor Caratini	C	77	250	60	0.240	7	36	0.322	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.248	0.308	0.357	OK
Alan Roden	RF	14	34	7	0.206	0	7	0.282	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.246	0.320	0.327	OK
Luke Keaschall	CF	99	334	86	0.257	4	30	0.350	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.248	0.338	0.332	OK
Ryan Kreidler	SS	58	164	40	0.244	5	25	0.291	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.235	0.277	0.406	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	29	5	4	4	6	3	0.172

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Randy Dobnak	Starter	4	18.3	1.48	1.421	4.9	10	5.0	1	0	0	3	2	83	5.0	2	0
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	42	38.7	6.98	1.705	10.2	44	0.1	2	3	3	3	0	22	0.1	0	3
Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	44	39.1	2.30	1.049	7.8	34	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	45	34.6	4.42	1.618	7.5	29	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Joe Ryan	Starter	21	113.4	3.41	1.111	10.4	131	5.2	5	1	1	3	6	110	5.2	6	1
Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	34	26.6	2.03	1.165	10.2	30	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	39	43.7	3.71	1.442	10.5	51	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	22	1.1	2	0
Tommy Nance	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	2.95	1.639	8.9	6	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	22	1.0	1	1

Game Summary

MIN wins 4-2

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants

MIL 67-41 (5.06 RPG / 3.83 RA)

3 - 2

SF 47-62 (4.26 RPG / 4.64 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 3-2 TARGET: MIL 3 - 2 SF (MIL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3	7
SF	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	6

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff13

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

SF Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff10

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

MIL Season Quality

Record66-40

Win%0.623

Run Diff139

RD/Game1.311

SF Season Quality

Record46-61

Win%0.430

Run Diff-49

RD/Game-0.458

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.0584; margin adjustment: -0.8645; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Christian Yelich	DH	68	265	61	0.230	7	35	0.320	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.235	0.311	0.410	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	71	299	85	0.284	13	42	0.340	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.270	0.319	0.423	OK
Brice Turang	2B	98	383	106	0.277	15	64	0.366	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.292	0.374	0.479	OK
William Contreras	C	98	380	103	0.271	10	56	0.333	4	2	1	1	2	2	0	0.500	0.259	0.312	0.388	OK
Jake Bauers	RF	93	316	83	0.263	17	58	0.366	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.275	0.369	0.436	OK
Andrew Vaughn	1B	60	173	54	0.312	4	28	0.389	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.300	0.371	0.514	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	89	293	77	0.263	7	41	0.350	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.236	0.329	0.390	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	31	100	28	0.280	2	13	0.353	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.274	0.348	0.425	OK
David Hamilton	3B	70	211	50	0.237	3	15	0.306	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.240	0.304	0.346	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	34	7	3	3	5	8	0.206

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Luis Arraez	2B	100	396	130	0.328	4	40	0.365	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.276	0.310	0.386	OK
Bryce Eldridge	1B	65	224	57	0.254	11	25	0.356	4	3	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.212	0.321	0.406	OK
Heliot Ramos	LF	68	264	66	0.250	9	31	0.284	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.206	0.238	0.345	OK
Rafael Devers	DH	106	400	99	0.248	21	59	0.320	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.235	0.308	0.469	OK
Jung Hoo Lee	RF	95	358	109	0.304	5	35	0.339	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.255	0.284	0.414	OK
Willy Adames	SS	101	391	89	0.228	17	44	0.279	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.211	0.260	0.382	OK
Daniel Susac	C	39	118	29	0.246	0	15	0.292	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.198	0.233	0.290	OK
Grant McCray	CF	5	11	2	0.182	1	2	0.250	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.107	0.177	0.194	OK
Christian Koss	3B	12	26	3	0.115	0	0	0.179	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.118	0.181	0.189	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	6	2	2	2	10	0.182

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jacob Misiorowski	Starter	20	119.3	1.58	0.754	14.0	185	6.1	4	1	1	1	9	107	6.1	9	1
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	40	39.1	2.07	0.946	11.3	49	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	43	39.4	2.51	1.168	9.4	41	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	50	54.5	3.63	1.541	13.5	82	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	17	0.2	1	1

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Logan Webb	Starter	18	112.3	4.01	1.131	7.1	89	6.0	4	2	2	2	7	103	6.0	7	2
Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	41	36.2	4.48	1.409	12.2	49	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	35	26.9	3.01	1.524	14.7	44	1.0	1	0	0	3	0	28	1.0	0	0
JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	32	48.6	3.33	1.255	6.7	36	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	29	1.0	0	1

Game Summary

MIL wins 3-2

New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox

NYY 61-46 (4.67 RPG / 3.84 RA)

5 - 3

CHW 55-51 (4.79 RPG / 4.41 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 5-3 TARGET: NYY 5 - 3 CHW (NYY) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	1	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	5	7
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	3

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff-1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff-2

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

NYY Season Quality

Record61-46

Win%0.570

Run Diff89

RD/Game0.832

CHW Season Quality

Record55-51

Win%0.519

Run Diff41

RD/Game0.387

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5218; margin adjustment: -0.2192; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trent Grisham	CF	83	288	62	0.215	10	40	0.316	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.191	0.286	0.321	OK
Ben Rice	DH	99	373	102	0.273	30	69	0.363	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.245	0.321	0.475	OK
Jasson Domínguez	RF	44	168	41	0.244	6	14	0.278	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.248	0.271	0.401	OK
Paul Goldschmidt	1B	75	273	70	0.256	16	43	0.315	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.333	0.250	0.316	0.427	OK
Spencer Jones	LF	31	80	17	0.212	2	8	0.300	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.224	0.303	0.347	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	97	345	78	0.226	16	45	0.297	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.244	0.306	0.472	OK
Ryan McMahon	3B	77	221	47	0.213	9	26	0.269	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.231	0.280	0.392	OK
José Caballero	SS	90	301	71	0.236	10	37	0.287	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.199	0.245	0.302	OK
Austin Wells	C	73	210	34	0.162	7	14	0.262	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.222	0.315	0.370	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	7	5	5	4	8	0.206

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Tristan Peters	CF	68	194	56	0.289	3	24	0.344	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.162	0.221	0.319	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	74	271	59	0.218	20	45	0.312	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.200	0.270	0.427	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	74	281	76	0.270	6	25	0.334	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.232	0.286	0.336	OK
Munetaka Murakami	IF	56	198	48	0.242	20	41	0.381	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.238	0.368	0.517	OK
Drew Romo	C	27	90	13	0.144	5	11	0.228	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.100	0.174	0.209	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	75	275	65	0.236	16	44	0.350	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.214	0.305	0.371	OK
Braden Montgomery	OF	12	42	11	0.262	1	5	0.311	3	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.236	0.288	0.421	OK
Sam Antonacci	SS	58	199	58	0.291	4	22	0.391	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.271	0.331	0.454	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	69	214	50	0.234	9	37	0.292	3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.208	0.267	0.432	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	30	3	3	3	3	7	0.100

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cam Schlittler	Starter	22	127.3	2.12	0.951	11.1	157	6.0	0	0	0	1	7	94	6.0	7	0
David Bednar	Middle Reliever	43	43.2	2.92	1.134	11.0	53	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	49	32.2	3.35	1.801	15.4	55	1.0	3	3	3	2	0	21	1.0	0	3
Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	54	44.3	1.63	1.332	12.8	63	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Davis Martin	Starter	14	79.8	3.38	1.216	9.4	83	6.0	4	2	2	3	6	100	6.0	6	2
Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	1.48	1.311	11.8	8	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1	2.1	8.57	1.905	4.3	1	1.0	0	1	1	0	1	11	1.0	1	1
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	24	20.9	1.72	1.483	9.9	23	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever	2	0.3	90.00	20.000	30.0	1	0.0	0	1	1	1	0	18	0.0	0	1

Game Summary

NYY wins 5-3

Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

PHI 57-52 (4.34 RPG / 4.48 RA)

5 - 2

MIA 55-54 (4.41 RPG / 4.36 RA)

WINNER: PHI wins 5-2 TARGET: PHI 5 - 2 MIA (PHI) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PHI	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	8
MIA	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs3.3

Avg Allowed5.2

Run Diff-19

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak2W

PHI Season Quality

Record57-51

Win%0.528

Run Diff-13

RD/Game-0.120

MIA Season Quality

Record54-54

Win%0.500

Run Diff4

RD/Game0.037

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1157; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trea Turner	SS	102	427	104	0.244	14	41	0.290	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.233	0.273	0.379	OK
Kyle Schwarber	DH	101	383	96	0.251	32	61	0.361	5	3	0	0	0	2	2	0.000	0.246	0.345	0.443	OK
Bryce Harper	1B	106	377	95	0.252	22	63	0.359	5	3	1	1	0	2	0	0.333	0.225	0.332	0.433	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	101	374	105	0.281	16	47	0.322	5	5	2	1	2	0	1	0.400	0.214	0.261	0.350	OK
Alec Bohm	3B	102	382	86	0.225	13	57	0.286	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.240	0.290	0.375	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	101	356	90	0.253	8	46	0.309	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.256	0.308	0.446	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	76	259	59	0.228	7	36	0.302	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.275	0.328	0.392	OK
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	RF	28	82	14	0.171	2	7	0.207	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.197	0.217	0.321	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	94	285	70	0.246	2	22	0.294	4	3	2	1	3	1	1	0.667	0.218	0.256	0.308	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	35	8	5	5	7	5	0.229

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Otto Lopez	SS	104	415	136	0.328	9	48	0.362	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.263	0.300	0.408	OK
Heriberto Hernández	LF	76	249	60	0.241	15	41	0.301	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.238	0.287	0.462	OK
Kyle Stowers	1B	83	311	73	0.235	14	46	0.318	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.239	0.307	0.468	OK
Xavier Edwards	2B	107	395	115	0.291	6	37	0.372	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.257	0.339	0.359	OK
Javier Sanoja	RF	79	265	70	0.264	3	35	0.295	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.225	0.259	0.347	OK
Liam Hicks	DH	96	337	95	0.282	14	60	0.359	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.250	0.317	0.365	OK
Leo Jiménez	3B	43	119	25	0.210	2	9	0.291	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.139	0.208	0.229	OK
Esteury Ruiz	CF	51	114	28	0.246	5	10	0.304	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.201	0.237	0.376	OK
Joe Mack	C	61	186	44	0.237	10	30	0.294	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.218	0.266	0.400	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	35	8	2	2	1	10	0.229

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jesús Luzardo	Starter	21	119.3	3.39	1.199	11.5	152	6.0	7	2	2	0	8	98	6.0	8	2
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	37	34.4	1.57	0.959	13.9	53	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	16	0.2	1	0
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	44	36.9	2.93	1.382	10.7	44	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	46	35.1	6.67	1.738	13.6	53	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Gusto	Starter	12	32.6	4.69	1.380	8.6	31	4.0	4	4	4	5	2	94	4.0	2	4
Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	35	30.7	7.33	1.498	12.9	44	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	43	39.2	3.21	1.148	11.7	51	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Cade Gibson	Middle Reliever	23	24.5	6.61	1.673	9.2	25	1.2	2	1	1	1	2	32	1.2	2	1
Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	46	39.5	5.24	1.722	10.5	46	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

PHI wins 5-2

Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers

SEA 53-55 (4.04 RPG / 3.95 RA)

3 - 5

LAD 67-40 (5.16 RPG / 3.72 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 5-3 TARGET: SEA 3 - 5 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	7
LAD	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	1	x	5	10

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

SEA Season Quality

Record52-55

Win%0.486

Run Diff8

RD/Game0.075

LAD Season Quality

Record67-39

Win%0.632

Run Diff155

RD/Game1.462

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.6066; margin adjustment: 0.6748; applied: True

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Cole Young	2B	108	391	100	0.256	13	48	0.315	5	4	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.254	0.297	0.386	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	100	367	103	0.281	13	47	0.375	5	4	1	1	2	1	1	0.250	0.249	0.310	0.424	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	96	381	98	0.257	16	46	0.316	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.234	0.278	0.388	OK
Dominic Canzone	RF	91	266	70	0.263	18	49	0.329	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.257	0.313	0.523	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	75	277	46	0.166	11	36	0.269	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.188	0.272	0.333	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	101	395	103	0.261	8	37	0.323	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.250	0.306	0.337	OK
Rob Refsnyder	DH	50	109	16	0.147	4	11	0.213	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.198	0.243	0.335	OK
Weston Wilson	3B	15	36	7	0.194	2	7	0.216	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.193	0.258	0.323	OK
Colt Emerson	SS	55	178	36	0.202	7	21	0.265	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.211	0.264	0.328	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	33	7	3	3	5	4	0.212

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	97	372	106	0.285	23	62	0.391	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.263	0.356	0.486	OK
Andy Pages	CF	104	404	106	0.262	17	68	0.330	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.234	0.301	0.375	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	103	390	117	0.300	15	50	0.381	4	4	2	1	0	0	2	0.500	0.318	0.386	0.482	OK
Max Muncy	3B	96	320	81	0.253	21	49	0.349	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.228	0.317	0.506	OK
Tommy Edman	2B	28	98	33	0.337	2	16	0.404	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.290	0.332	0.465	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	68	273	63	0.231	13	34	0.285	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.220	0.271	0.362	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	97	354	85	0.240	9	51	0.329	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.235	0.324	0.431	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	70	251	62	0.247	8	36	0.317	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.245	0.313	0.363	OK
Dalton Rushing	C	65	205	53	0.259	11	33	0.326	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.250	0.301	0.443	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	10	5	5	2	8	0.294

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Emerson Hancock	Starter	19	103.7	3.21	1.022	8.4	97	5.2	6	3	3	2	7	102	5.2	7	3
Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	40	36.7	3.68	1.226	14.5	59	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	0.0	0	0
José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	48	39.1	2.99	1.458	8.3	36	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	50	40.0	3.38	1.475	10.6	47	1.1	2	2	2	0	0	23	1.1	0	2

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eric Lauer	Starter	8	44.5	3.44	1.101	5.3	26	5.1	5	3	3	2	1	102	5.1	1	3
Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	45	39.4	2.51	0.863	12.6	55	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	7	6.2	7.26	1.452	13.1	9	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	47	27.6	3.59	1.558	17.0	52	0.2	1	0	0	2	1	19	0.2	1	0
Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever	14	13.5	2.67	0.815	9.3	14	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	20	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 5-3

Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays

TEX 55-53 (4.2 RPG / 4.4 RA)

3 - 6

TB 63-44 (4.47 RPG / 4.07 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 6-3 TARGET: TEX 3 - 6 TB (TB) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	3	6
TB	3	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	x	6	10

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.4

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff11

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff19

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

TEX Season Quality

Record55-52

Win%0.514

Run Diff-18

RD/Game-0.168

TB Season Quality

Record62-44

Win%0.585

Run Diff39

RD/Game0.368

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6425; margin adjustment: 0.2698; applied: True

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Wyatt Langford	DH	55	223	63	0.283	12	29	0.325	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.257	0.291	0.468	OK
Ezequiel Duran	3B	96	335	92	0.275	12	57	0.326	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.193	0.245	0.380	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	101	388	104	0.268	10	39	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.252	0.305	0.415	OK
Jake Burger	1B	102	378	90	0.238	19	66	0.300	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.228	0.284	0.430	OK
Justin Foscue	2B	50	123	33	0.268	7	19	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.153	0.198	0.271	OK
Nicky Lopez	SS	49	144	46	0.319	1	18	0.357	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.179	0.228	0.228	OK
Cameron Cauley	CF	16	36	9	0.250	1	1	0.341	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.245	0.315	0.464	OK
Alejandro Osuna	LF	65	180	47	0.261	1	23	0.348	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.261	0.318	0.350	OK
Elias Díaz	C	29	92	23	0.250	2	11	0.263	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.201	0.216	0.328	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	3	3	3	6	0.182

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	101	392	119	0.304	14	61	0.380	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.242	0.308	0.369	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	103	380	109	0.287	14	65	0.379	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.243	0.322	0.358	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	105	400	114	0.285	29	64	0.374	4	4	3	1	3	0	0	0.750	0.256	0.335	0.447	OK
Ryan Vilade	RF	54	152	39	0.257	8	32	0.320	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.245	0.309	0.470	OK
Jonny DeLuca	CF	58	191	51	0.267	6	32	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.256	0.292	0.410	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	96	369	108	0.293	0	20	0.324	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.199	0.236	0.274	OK
Ben Williamson	2B	73	227	58	0.256	2	24	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.256	0.306	0.354	OK
Nick Fortes	C	76	230	65	0.283	4	27	0.320	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.312	0.330	0.472	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	78	246	54	0.220	0	21	0.311	3	2	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.221	0.298	0.320	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	34	10	6	6	1	3	0.294

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
MacKenzie Gore	Starter	22	113.1	4.93	1.335	10.1	127	5.0	8	6	6	1	1	91	5.0	1	6
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	39	47.2	1.33	0.614	9.7	51	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	4	1.0	2	0
Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	33	34.2	3.95	1.433	11.1	42	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	39	29.5	7.32	1.627	11.0	36	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	13	0.0	0	0
Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	48	39.7	3.63	1.537	9.1	40	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	15	0.2	0	0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Casey Legumina	Starter	25	27.7	3.57	1.336	7.1	22	5.0	6	3	3	3	3	93	5.0	3	3
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	42	39.4	1.60	0.863	9.8	43	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	44	41.9	2.58	1.002	7.9	37	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.1	1	0
Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	35	28.2	3.83	1.383	13.4	42	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Cam Booser	Middle Reliever	19	18.1	1.99	0.773	12.9	26	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	15	0.2	1	0

Game Summary

TB wins 6-3

Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals

TOR 50-59 (3.94 RPG / 4.5 RA)

4 - 2

WAS 55-54 (5.47 RPG / 5.21 RA)

WINNER: TOR wins 4-2 TARGET: TOR 4 - 2 WAS (TOR) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	7
WAS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	5

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs2.3

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff-18

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs7.0

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff22

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

TOR Season Quality

Record49-58

Win%0.458

Run Diff-61

RD/Game-0.570

WAS Season Quality

Record54-53

Win%0.505

Run Diff29

RD/Game0.271

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9112; margin adjustment: 0.3827; applied: True

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yohendrick Pinango	LF	55	164	42	0.256	5	19	0.299	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.237	0.271	0.363	OK
Nathan Lukes	RF	71	235	67	0.285	5	18	0.337	5	3	1	1	0	2	2	0.333	0.245	0.288	0.369	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	102	381	101	0.265	6	44	0.340	5	5	2	1	3	0	0	0.400	0.266	0.333	0.363	OK
George Springer	DH	77	299	70	0.234	12	33	0.315	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.251	0.317	0.412	OK
Brandon Valenzuela	C	59	180	41	0.228	8	21	0.307	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.211	0.288	0.369	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	88	319	78	0.245	7	25	0.305	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.253	0.304	0.366	OK
Ernie Clement	3B	105	406	120	0.296	8	34	0.320	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.263	0.286	0.386	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	96	316	73	0.231	7	40	0.272	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.233	0.256	0.346	OK
Luis Urías	2B	17	42	9	0.214	3	4	0.298	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.204	0.291	0.385	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	34	7	4	4	5	7	0.206

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	DH	108	416	112	0.269	30	72	0.396	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.252	0.364	0.506	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	100	341	96	0.282	22	73	0.313	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.180	0.219	0.372	OK
Dylan Crews	RF	56	210	48	0.229	9	24	0.311	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.268	0.333	0.446	OK
CJ Abrams	SS	104	391	115	0.294	27	82	0.366	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.333	0.391	0.653	OK
Keibert Ruiz	C	68	225	60	0.267	7	36	0.297	4	3	2	1	0	1	1	0.667	0.235	0.264	0.410	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	106	408	100	0.245	11	52	0.297	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.237	0.281	0.399	OK
Nasim Nuñez	2B	94	303	75	0.248	1	31	0.329	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.262	0.345	0.323	OK
Jorbit Vivas	3B	72	192	46	0.240	3	17	0.320	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.232	0.312	0.351	OK
Jacob Young	CF	85	293	69	0.235	9	35	0.287	3	2	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.260	0.300	0.420	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	5	2	2	2	10	0.156

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trey Yesavage	Starter	16	82.2	4.05	1.217	9.5	87	5.0	2	0	0	1	8	90	5.0	8	0
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	48	49.5	1.09	1.030	13.1	72	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	49	44.4	1.62	1.149	5.5	27	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	49	41.1	4.60	1.557	15.8	72	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	15	1.0	0	2
Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever	54	32.5	4.98	1.723	14.1	51	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zack Littell	Starter	21	99.6	5.24	1.355	6.0	66	5.0	4	3	3	4	3	91	5.0	3	3
Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	33	29.4	3.37	1.293	10.4	34	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	20	1.0	2	0
Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	33	27.4	3.94	1.314	9.9	30	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Tom Cosgrove	Middle Reliever	7	5.6	1.61	1.429	6.4	4	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Riley Cornelio	Middle Reliever	9	17.4	6.21	1.954	8.8	17	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	30	1.0	0	1

Game Summary

TOR wins 4-2

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates

ARI Recent Form

PIT Recent Form

ARI Season Quality

PIT Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets

ATL Recent Form

NYM Recent Form

ATL Season Quality

NYM Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets

ATL Recent Form

NYM Recent Form

ATL Season Quality

NYM Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers

BAL Recent Form

DET Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

DET Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics

BOS Recent Form

OAK Recent Form

BOS Season Quality

OAK Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

CHC Recent Form

STL Recent Form

CHC Season Quality

STL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds

CLE Recent Form

CIN Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

CIN Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres