MLB Predictions — July 28, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
ARI @ PIT	4 - 1	4 - 1	ARI	ARI	ARI wins 4-1	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
ATL @ NYM	6 - 3	6 - 3	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 6-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BAL @ DET	3 - 2	3 - 2	BAL	BAL	BAL wins 3-2	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BOS @ OAK	5 - 2	5 - 2	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 5-2	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ STL	5 - 4	5 - 4	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 5-4	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ CIN	3 - 5	3 - 5	CIN	CIN	CIN wins 5-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ CIN	1 - 3	1 - 3	CIN	CIN	CIN wins 3-1	51%	fallback_enhanced
COL @ SD	4 - 5	4 - 5	SD	SD	SD wins 5-4	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ LAA	2 - 3	2 - 3	LAA	LAA	LAA wins 3-2	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
KC @ MIN	4 - 6	4 - 6	MIN	MIN	MIN wins 6-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ SF	5 - 2	5 - 2	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 5-2	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYY @ CHW	4 - 3	4 - 3	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 4-3	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PHI @ MIA	2 - 3	2 - 3	MIA	MIA	MIA wins 3-2	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SEA @ LAD	3 - 5	3 - 5	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 5-3	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TEX @ TB	3 - 5	3 - 5	TB	TB	TB wins 5-3	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TOR @ WAS	3 - 6	3 - 6	WAS	WAS	WAS wins 6-3	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates

ARI 55-52 (4.5 RPG / 4.53 RA)

4 - 1

PIT 55-52 (5.2 RPG / 4.81 RA)

WINNER: ARI wins 4-1 TARGET: ARI 4 - 1 PIT (ARI) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	4	8
PIT	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	7

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs6.1

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff10

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak3L

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-3

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

ARI Season Quality

Record55-52

Win%0.514

Run Diff-4

RD/Game-0.037

PIT Season Quality

Record55-52

Win%0.514

Run Diff41

RD/Game0.383

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4206; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ryan Waldschmidt	CF	32	112	29	0.259	0	8	0.314	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.155	0.209	0.279	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	75	257	61	0.237	4	27	0.354	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.224	0.345	0.332	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	73	297	78	0.263	12	46	0.315	5	5	2	1	3	0	0	0.400	0.277	0.329	0.461	OK
Tim Tawa	LF	14	36	5	0.139	0	2	0.238	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.217	0.302	0.333	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	51	174	48	0.276	6	25	0.358	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.282	0.358	0.463	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	73	247	59	0.239	8	32	0.315	5	5	1	0	0	0	3	0.200	0.234	0.294	0.347	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	75	278	79	0.284	13	42	0.372	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	0.500	0.281	0.359	0.547	OK
Max Kepler	LF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.248	0.312	0.408
Ildemaro Vargas	1B	62	230	60	0.261	7	37	0.299	4	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.190	0.247	0.301	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	35	8	4	4	5	8	0.229

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake Mangum	CF	74	261	80	0.307	2	21	0.348	5	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.284	0.314	0.376	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	95	375	93	0.248	21	67	0.317	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.246	0.307	0.418	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	104	378	103	0.272	14	60	0.386	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.227	0.322	0.387	OK
Esmerlyn Valdez	RF	35	112	32	0.286	11	28	0.386	4	2	1	1	1	2	0	0.500	0.261	0.369	0.569	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	1B	87	331	94	0.284	17	67	0.345	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.253	0.316	0.420	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	97	370	115	0.311	4	45	0.365	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.292	0.331	0.379	OK
Endy Rodríguez	C	35	102	27	0.265	5	16	0.370	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.258	0.357	0.455	OK
Marcell Ozuna	DH	64	240	48	0.200	8	28	0.281	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.194	0.272	0.304	OK
Jacob Gonzalez	SS	8	20	3	0.150	0	1	0.150	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.215	0.263	0.318	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	7	1	1	3	10	0.206

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	15	86.7	2.49	1.257	6.7	65	6.2	4	0	0	1	7	108	6.2	7	0
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	2	2.1	0.00	0.476	8.6	2	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	23	1.0	1	0
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1	1.0	9.00	2.000	0.0	0	0.1	1	1	1	1	1	21	0.1	1	1

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bubba Chandler	Starter	20	98.1	4.59	1.427	8.3	90	5.1	4	4	4	3	6	101	5.1	6	4
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	43	41.1	3.28	1.022	10.7	49	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	43	36.8	4.16	1.386	16.1	66	1.2	2	0	0	1	0	31	1.2	0	0
Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	44	50.4	3.57	1.528	11.1	62	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	23	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

ARI wins 4-1

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets

ATL 62-45 (4.91 RPG / 4.06 RA)

6 - 3

NYM 45-62 (4.17 RPG / 4.64 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 6-3 TARGET: ATL 6 - 3 NYM (ATL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	2	0	6	8
NYM	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	7

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed5.8

Run Diff-10

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff14

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak2W

ATL Season Quality

Record62-45

Win%0.579

Run Diff91

RD/Game0.850

NYM Season Quality

Record45-62

Win%0.421

Run Diff-51

RD/Game-0.477

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.5654; margin adjustment: -0.6575; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	54	199	50	0.251	7	22	0.371	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.256	0.352	0.420	OK
Drake Baldwin	C	83	318	89	0.280	20	56	0.373	5	4	0	1	0	1	3	0.000	0.279	0.359	0.495	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	106	413	109	0.264	18	60	0.314	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.246	0.289	0.459	OK
Matt Olson	1B	106	411	108	0.263	27	63	0.341	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.234	0.316	0.447	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	100	383	115	0.300	19	61	0.326	4	4	3	1	5	0	0	0.750	0.286	0.309	0.493	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	102	382	100	0.262	10	55	0.313	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.237	0.286	0.355	OK
Austin Riley	3B	106	382	82	0.215	12	50	0.293	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.232	0.292	0.370	OK
Mike Yastrzemski	DH	87	239	54	0.226	6	27	0.311	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.229	0.306	0.364	OK
Jim Jarvis	SS	21	64	16	0.250	1	8	0.294	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.215	0.254	0.364	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	8	6	6	3	7	0.229

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
A.J. Ewing	CF	66	236	65	0.275	7	26	0.347	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.243	0.309	0.364	OK
Francisco Lindor	SS	49	193	45	0.233	8	23	0.318	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.229	0.303	0.437	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	103	414	108	0.261	10	53	0.304	4	2	1	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.254	0.295	0.345	OK
Luis Robert Jr.	DH	30	106	22	0.208	4	10	0.306	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.200	0.289	0.362	OK
Francisco Alvarez	C	68	225	57	0.253	11	25	0.332	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.257	0.347	0.443	OK
Jared Young	1B	55	162	40	0.247	6	16	0.318	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.164	0.216	0.299	OK
Carson Benge	RF	99	378	97	0.257	11	40	0.322	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.222	0.284	0.330	OK
Tyrone Taylor	LF	53	133	33	0.248	8	25	0.291	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.253	0.299	0.534	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	86	310	68	0.219	12	35	0.277	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.218	0.278	0.421	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	7	3	3	1	8	0.212

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Chris Sale	Starter	19	109.6	2.22	1.068	11.0	134	6.0	5	2	2	1	7	99	6.0	7	2
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	36	35.6	2.53	1.124	10.9	43	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	49	41.6	2.60	0.865	13.0	60	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	35	38.9	3.01	1.311	11.8	51	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	21	1.0	0	1

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Christian Scott	Starter	14	59.6	3.32	1.342	11.8	78	5.2	3	2	2	2	6	100	5.2	6	2
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	37	32.1	4.21	1.620	13.5	48	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	23	1.0	0	2
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	40	39.9	2.03	0.877	9.7	43	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	43	33.3	2.43	1.321	10.5	39	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	21	1.0	0	2
Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	44	43.2	3.12	1.204	9.8	47	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	16	0.1	1	0

Game Summary

ATL wins 6-3

Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers

BAL 52-55 (4.59 RPG / 4.69 RA)

3 - 2

DET 50-57 (4.21 RPG / 3.97 RA)

WINNER: BAL wins 3-2 TARGET: BAL 3 - 2 DET (BAL) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	7
DET	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	6

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

DET Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak3L

BAL Season Quality

Record52-55

Win%0.486

Run Diff-11

RD/Game-0.103

DET Season Quality

Record50-57

Win%0.467

Run Diff25

RD/Game0.234

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3084; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Dylan Beavers	RF	49	157	40	0.255	2	17	0.330	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.256	0.323	0.366	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	104	391	99	0.253	22	67	0.348	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.239	0.319	0.430	OK
Gunnar Henderson	DH	103	427	94	0.220	17	44	0.292	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.220	0.275	0.407	OK
Taylor Ward	LF	103	385	97	0.252	7	27	0.386	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.240	0.357	0.359	OK
Leody Taveras	CF	86	278	63	0.227	5	38	0.305	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.132	0.229	0.236	OK
Jackson Holliday	SS	51	143	34	0.238	5	17	0.337	4	2	1	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.242	0.359	0.374	OK
Coby Mayo	3B	77	240	49	0.204	14	38	0.270	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.227	0.276	0.459	OK
Jeremiah Jackson	2B	65	210	51	0.243	6	32	0.265	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.226	0.251	0.351	OK
Chadwick Tromp	C	6	20	3	0.150	0	1	0.150	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.129	0.138	0.187	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	3	3	2	7	0.206

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kevin McGonigle	SS	102	385	109	0.283	9	35	0.389	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.249	0.342	0.375	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	97	358	99	0.277	22	68	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.277	0.325	0.490	OK
Colt Keith	3B	96	281	72	0.256	8	23	0.302	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.255	0.292	0.379	OK
Riley Greene	DH	105	380	108	0.284	15	52	0.372	4	3	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.245	0.329	0.422	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	105	357	74	0.207	19	50	0.302	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.215	0.305	0.427	OK
Zach McKinstry	RF	78	245	51	0.208	4	21	0.282	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.237	0.299	0.337	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	2B	63	182	50	0.275	6	25	0.307	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.294	0.333	0.528	OK
James Outman	CF	28	89	14	0.157	4	13	0.194	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.101	0.141	0.207	OK
Matt Vierling	LF	82	260	50	0.192	5	30	0.243	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	0.500	0.130	0.183	0.216	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	6	2	2	3	7	0.188

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Dean Kremer	Starter	6	32.0	5.06	1.188	9.6	34	5.1	3	2	2	3	4	88	5.1	4	2
Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	35	27.4	3.94	1.533	9.2	28	1.2	2	0	0	0	1	26	1.2	1	0
Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever	41	47.5	3.03	1.074	10.0	53	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	49	41.1	3.28	0.973	10.7	49	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Troy Melton	Starter	10	58.6	2.00	0.973	8.4	55	6.0	5	2	2	2	6	99	6.0	6	2
Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	30	25.8	3.49	1.240	10.8	31	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	44	40.4	2.45	1.559	8.0	36	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	45	39.4	3.65	1.599	8.5	37	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

BAL wins 3-2

Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics

BOS 55-50 (4.21 RPG / 3.75 RA)

5 - 2

OAK 44-62 (4.43 RPG / 5.63 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 5-2 TARGET: BOS 5 - 2 OAK (BOS) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	3	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	7
OAK	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	4

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.3

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff19

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed7.4

Run Diff-27

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak2L

BOS Season Quality

Record54-50

Win%0.519

Run Diff46

RD/Game0.442

OAK Season Quality

Record44-61

Win%0.419

Run Diff-125

RD/Game-1.190

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.7831; margin adjustment: -0.7489; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jahmai Jones	DH	6	8	3	0.375	1	4	0.444	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0.200	0.141	0.211	0.279	OK
Curtis Mead	2B	1	1	0	0.000	0	0	0.500	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.179	0.287	0.350
Willson Contreras	1B	95	338	96	0.284	22	66	0.386	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.252	0.339	0.465	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	101	386	98	0.254	15	51	0.326	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.216	0.288	0.412	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	97	379	105	0.277	10	48	0.320	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.252	0.281	0.440	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	94	317	72	0.227	10	41	0.292	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.233	0.289	0.374	OK
Andruw Monasterio	SS	61	178	45	0.253	5	18	0.306	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.196	0.263	0.370	OK
Jarren Duran	LF	96	372	72	0.194	13	48	0.254	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.218	0.266	0.325	OK
Carlos Narváez	C	54	163	32	0.196	3	9	0.261	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.214	0.267	0.345	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	7	5	5	4	7	0.206

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jacob Wilson	SS	66	267	73	0.273	7	32	0.306	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.214	0.239	0.328	OK
Nick Kurtz	DH	95	342	90	0.263	21	69	0.401	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.205	0.326	0.411	OK
Tyler Soderstrom	LF	94	337	85	0.252	17	50	0.350	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.253	0.335	0.461	OK
Jonah Heim	C	47	158	35	0.222	9	25	0.265	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.213	0.252	0.378	OK
Colby Thomas	RF	47	109	23	0.211	4	11	0.246	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.214	0.240	0.325	OK
Tommy White	3B	9	35	10	0.286	0	0	0.324	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.219	0.261	0.329	OK
Jeff McNeil	1B	92	290	71	0.245	4	33	0.302	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.269	0.316	0.402	OK
Henry Bolte	CF	60	202	49	0.243	3	17	0.314	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.187	0.240	0.269	OK
Alika Williams	2B	35	100	27	0.270	2	9	0.298	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.139	0.164	0.259	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	31	4	2	2	1	5	0.129

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jake Bennett	Starter	10	57.7	2.65	0.971	6.6	42	6.1	2	2	2	1	5	90	6.1	5	2
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	35	34.2	1.05	1.140	11.8	45	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	40	38.3	2.11	0.888	9.6	41	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	10	1.0	0	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	30	21.2	5.94	1.698	14.4	34	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	13	0.2	0	0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gage Jump	Starter	11	54.9	4.59	1.475	10.0	61	4.1	6	5	5	4	4	89	4.1	4	5
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	50	37.8	3.81	1.799	14.8	62	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	29	26.8	6.04	1.455	12.4	37	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	33	43.5	3.52	1.448	11.8	57	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	4	1.1	2	0
José Suarez	Middle Reliever	28	31.4	4.30	1.369	10.0	35	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Brady Basso	Middle Reliever	8	8.8	6.14	2.159	10.2	10	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	17	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

BOS wins 5-2

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

CHC 60-46 (5.17 RPG / 4.42 RA)

5 - 4

STL 53-53 (4.42 RPG / 4.47 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 5-4 TARGET: CHC 5 - 4 STL (CHC) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	1	0	5	8
STL	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	4	5

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs6.4

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff28

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

STL Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-12

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

CHC Season Quality

Record60-46

Win%0.566

Run Diff80

RD/Game0.755

STL Season Quality

Record53-53

Win%0.500

Run Diff-5

RD/Game-0.047

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9009; margin adjustment: -0.3784; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	104	388	113	0.291	23	60	0.391	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.277	0.362	0.543	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	89	336	90	0.268	18	58	0.357	5	5	1	1	0	0	2	0.200	0.244	0.326	0.460	OK
Michael Busch	1B	103	386	95	0.246	12	54	0.364	5	5	2	1	2	0	1	0.400	0.252	0.345	0.395	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	102	403	98	0.243	11	46	0.339	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.247	0.327	0.407	OK
Ian Happ	LF	99	369	81	0.220	18	45	0.331	4	2	1	1	0	2	0	0.500	0.226	0.330	0.387	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	102	412	105	0.255	5	48	0.314	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.292	0.338	0.410	OK
Carson Kelly	C	75	246	64	0.260	6	35	0.348	4	3	3	1	2	1	0	1.000	0.237	0.319	0.348	OK
Pedro Ramirez	DH	30	79	25	0.316	1	13	0.360	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.196	0.254	0.345	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	99	342	75	0.219	14	54	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.242	0.316	0.380	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	35	8	5	5	4	11	0.229

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	98	388	98	0.253	15	39	0.347	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.214	0.288	0.318	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	103	382	91	0.238	11	42	0.359	4	2	0	0	0	2	2	0.000	0.226	0.295	0.355	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	103	397	114	0.287	15	70	0.346	4	4	2	1	4	0	1	0.500	0.283	0.327	0.433	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	102	391	112	0.286	20	72	0.350	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.238	0.300	0.398	OK
Lars Nootbaar	LF	42	137	33	0.241	3	15	0.344	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.224	0.324	0.351	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	95	349	84	0.241	4	43	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.231	0.298	0.307	OK
Nathan Church	CF	79	258	59	0.229	8	29	0.270	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.202	0.244	0.311	OK
Blaze Jordan	3B	32	108	25	0.231	1	22	0.256	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.208	0.248	0.338	OK
Jimmy Crooks	C	29	75	14	0.187	3	9	0.265	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.211	0.272	0.371	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	5	4	4	2	8	0.156

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Colin Rea	Starter	21	101.7	5.04	1.475	7.2	81	5.1	3	2	2	1	8	86	5.1	8	2
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	46	40.9	3.08	1.443	11.4	52	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	25	2.0	0	0
Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	28	30.0	2.40	1.067	4.5	15	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	23	1.0	0	2
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	35	25.4	4.61	1.417	14.2	40	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	13	0.2	0	0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael McGreevy	Starter	20	112.7	3.11	1.145	5.9	74	6.0	6	3	3	1	7	98	6.0	7	3
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	42	39.8	3.84	1.281	9.9	44	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	21	1.0	3	0
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	47	40.5	4.00	1.259	9.6	43	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	44	33.8	5.06	1.657	11.4	43	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	18	1.0	0	2
Gordon Graceffo	Middle Reliever	43	42.0	3.86	1.381	6.9	32	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	21	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

CHC wins 5-4

Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds

CLE 55-53 (3.94 RPG / 4.1 RA)

3 - 5

CIN 49-56 (4.16 RPG / 4.8 RA)

WINNER: CIN wins 5-3 TARGET: CLE 3 - 5 CIN (CIN) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	7
CIN	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	5	7

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff-16

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak5L

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff-10

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

CLE Season Quality

Record54-53

Win%0.505

Run Diff-18

RD/Game-0.168

CIN Season Quality

Record49-55

Win%0.471

Run Diff-66

RD/Game-0.635

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5167; margin adjustment: -0.217; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Petey Halpin	CF	35	89	17	0.191	2	5	0.215	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.135	0.157	0.251	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	102	357	97	0.272	9	49	0.329	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.239	0.279	0.371	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	74	276	66	0.239	9	32	0.336	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.214	0.307	0.350	OK
Kyle Manzardo	1B	94	292	62	0.212	11	32	0.299	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.218	0.282	0.379	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	38	115	28	0.243	4	14	0.290	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.247	0.301	0.430	OK
José Ramírez	3B	75	281	67	0.238	10	35	0.336	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.226	0.317	0.359	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	86	326	93	0.285	11	50	0.353	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.252	0.333	0.405	OK
Steven Kwan	CF	94	327	80	0.245	1	18	0.343	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.270	0.359	0.359	OK
Rhys Hoskins	1B	78	232	40	0.172	11	32	0.299	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.175	0.283	0.405	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	7	3	3	2	5	0.206

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Dane Myers	CF	59	138	36	0.261	3	15	0.352	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.169	0.256	0.266	OK
Elly De La Cruz	SS	84	334	94	0.281	18	47	0.358	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.254	0.332	0.483	OK
Edwin Arroyo	SS	38	123	30	0.244	0	4	0.288	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.244	0.277	0.315	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	103	392	100	0.255	21	76	0.332	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.242	0.308	0.440	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	78	250	61	0.244	8	28	0.320	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.244	0.306	0.402	OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3B	44	142	21	0.148	3	6	0.204	4	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.180	0.229	0.299	OK
Spencer Steer	1B	96	338	81	0.240	16	40	0.318	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.206	0.273	0.359	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	75	270	64	0.237	17	44	0.344	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.213	0.320	0.390	OK
Eugenio Suárez	DH	74	269	56	0.208	14	39	0.279	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.200	0.267	0.414	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	7	5	5	3	5	0.219

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Slade Cecconi	Starter	20	100.4	4.75	1.494	7.4	82	5.0	3	1	1	0	3	83	5.0	3	1
Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	45	45.2	2.79	1.128	13.3	67	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	18	1.1	1	0
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	39	28.3	3.18	1.449	10.2	32	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	13	0.2	1	0
Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	39	34.4	1.83	0.930	10.5	40	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever	37	23.8	4.54	1.555	18.9	50	0.0	3	4	4	2	0	17	0.0	0	4

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Chase Burns	Starter	19	106.5	2.45	1.117	10.5	124	6.0	4	1	1	1	5	95	6.0	5	1
Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	21	19.4	5.57	1.289	9.7	21	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	18	1.0	0	0
Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	32	27.8	2.59	1.115	9.1	28	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	53	43.2	3.12	1.528	9.0	43	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	19	1.0	0	2

Game Summary

CIN wins 5-3

Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds

CLE 55-53 (3.94 RPG / 4.1 RA)

1 - 3

CIN 49-56 (4.16 RPG / 4.8 RA)

WINNER: CIN wins 3-1 TARGET: CLE 1 - 3 CIN (CIN) Confidence: 51.0% fallback_enhanced

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	7
CIN	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	x	3	7

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.525867136978248

Avg Allowed4.525867136978248

Run Diff?

Off Trend?

Def Trend?

Streak?

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.525867136978248

Avg Allowed4.525867136978248

Run Diff?

Off Trend?

Def Trend?

Streak?

CLE Season Quality

Record?-?

Win%?

Run Diff?

RD/Game?

CIN Season Quality

Record?-?

Win%?

Run Diff?

RD/Game?

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -; margin adjustment: -; applied: False

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	LF	94	327	80	0.245	1	18	0.343	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.273	0.355	0.359	OK
José Ramírez	3B	75	281	67	0.238	10	35	0.336	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.225	0.311	0.353	OK
Chase DeLauter	DH	86	326	93	0.285	11	50	0.353	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.253	0.329	0.401	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	74	276	66	0.239	9	32	0.336	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.216	0.310	0.354	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	102	357	97	0.272	9	49	0.329	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.242	0.284	0.375	OK
Kyle Manzardo	1B	94	292	62	0.212	11	32	0.299	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.220	0.286	0.385	OK
Angel Martínez	RF	65	237	54	0.228	11	33	0.264	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.128	0.152	0.252	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	38	115	28	0.243	4	14	0.290	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.232	0.287	0.404	OK
Petey Halpin	CF	35	89	17	0.191	2	5	0.215	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.122	0.144	0.231	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	34	7	1	1	1	12	0.206

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Elly De La Cruz	SS	84	334	94	0.281	18	47	0.358	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.256	0.332	0.485	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	103	392	100	0.255	21	76	0.332	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.242	0.306	0.437	OK
JJ Bleday	RF	75	270	64	0.237	17	44	0.344	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.221	0.321	0.401	OK
Eugenio Suárez	3B	74	269	56	0.208	14	39	0.279	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.212	0.276	0.432	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	DH	71	219	56	0.256	11	32	0.329	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.174	0.243	0.339	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	78	250	61	0.244	8	28	0.320	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.246	0.309	0.407	OK
Dane Myers	CF	59	138	36	0.261	3	15	0.352	4	3	1	1	1	1	2	0.333	0.163	0.251	0.253	OK
Edwin Arroyo	2B	38	123	30	0.244	0	4	0.288	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.224	0.258	0.295	OK
TJ Friedl	LF	61	198	34	0.172	3	11	0.260	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.178	0.265	0.260	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	31	7	3	3	5	11	0.226

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gavin Williams	Starter	21	124.7	3.83	1.115	11.3	156	6.0	5	2	2	3	8	112	6.0	8	2
Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	45	45.2	2.79	1.128	13.3	67	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	39	28.3	3.18	1.449	10.2	32	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	13	0.0	0	0
Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	39	34.4	1.83	0.930	10.5	40	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	19	1.0	2	1

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Hunter Greene	Starter	4	21.2	7.22	1.368	12.3	29	5.0	6	1	1	1	7	91	5.0	7	1
Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	21	19.4	5.57	1.289	9.7	21	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	17	1.2	1	0
Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	32	27.8	2.59	1.115	9.1	28	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	53	43.2	3.12	1.528	9.0	43	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

CIN wins 3-1

Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres

COL 42-65 (4.74 RPG / 5.77 RA)

4 - 5

SD 53-53 (4.17 RPG / 4.37 RA)

WINNER: SD wins 5-4 TARGET: COL 4 - 5 SD (SD) Confidence: 57.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	4	7
SD	0	1	0	0	0	0	4	0	x	5	10

COL Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed6.5

Run Diff-23

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak2L

SD Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs6.3

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff22

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak3W

COL Season Quality

Record42-65

Win%0.393

Run Diff-110

RD/Game-1.028

SD Season Quality

Record53-53

Win%0.500

Run Diff-21

RD/Game-0.198

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9911; margin adjustment: 0.4163; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Cole Carrigg	OF	38	129	37	0.287	5	26	0.360	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.261	0.326	0.469	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	95	330	66	0.200	8	32	0.246	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.200	0.248	0.302	OK
Edouard Julien	2B	79	222	46	0.207	3	20	0.315	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.197	0.287	0.305	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	101	363	109	0.300	13	52	0.383	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.273	0.351	0.431	OK
Hunter Goodman	C	98	366	95	0.260	31	60	0.331	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.263	0.330	0.517	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	98	301	80	0.266	9	37	0.366	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.257	0.356	0.409	OK
Mickey Moniak	LF	67	232	64	0.276	16	43	0.316	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.254	0.290	0.465	OK
Jake McCarthy	CF	86	319	95	0.298	10	57	0.337	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.244	0.276	0.429	OK
Troy Johnston	RF	90	294	85	0.289	3	40	0.352	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	0.500	0.217	0.280	0.325	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	7	4	4	3	10	0.206

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jackson Merrill	CF	102	399	92	0.231	15	46	0.284	5	5	1	1	2	0	3	0.200	0.265	0.305	0.492	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	100	348	76	0.218	9	38	0.314	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.221	0.314	0.314	OK
Jake Cronenworth	2B	54	175	38	0.217	3	13	0.318	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.268	0.355	0.359	OK
Ty France	1B	74	248	71	0.286	16	46	0.336	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.292	0.324	0.550	OK
Luis Campusano	C	32	87	24	0.276	4	13	0.382	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.262	0.363	0.438	OK
Manny Machado	3B	103	381	80	0.210	23	63	0.296	4	4	3	1	1	0	1	0.750	0.243	0.323	0.465	OK
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	104	412	114	0.277	8	46	0.346	4	4	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.241	0.318	0.393	OK
Gavin Sheets	1B	99	309	66	0.214	14	42	0.311	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.213	0.293	0.341	OK
Luis Rengifo	3B	9	30	13	0.433	2	7	0.485	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.183	0.255	0.302	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	10	5	5	3	11	0.294

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael Lorenzen	Starter	22	96.7	6.79	1.861	7.3	78	4.2	6	3	3	1	6	98	4.2	6	3
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	32	46.1	3.90	1.367	8.8	45	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	23	1.2	1	0
Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	42	39.7	6.35	1.814	10.7	47	0.2	4	2	2	2	2	28	0.2	2	2
Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	7	6.2	1.45	1.613	13.1	9	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	21	1.0	2	0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael King	Starter	21	117.0	3.31	1.197	7.9	103	5.2	5	2	2	2	5	106	5.2	5	2
Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	42	41.1	0.88	0.876	17.5	80	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	20	1.0	1	1
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	49	49.1	3.67	1.242	11.5	63	1.1	1	1	1	0	2	20	1.1	2	1
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	42	37.9	2.37	1.319	10.7	45	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

SD wins 5-4

Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels

HOU 53-55 (4.58 RPG / 5.0 RA)

2 - 3

LAA 42-65 (4.28 RPG / 4.91 RA)

WINNER: LAA wins 3-2 TARGET: HOU 2 - 3 LAA (LAA) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	2
LAA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	7

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.5

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff-1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs2.6

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff-12

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

HOU Season Quality

Record52-55

Win%0.486

Run Diff-47

RD/Game-0.439

LAA Season Quality

Record42-64

Win%0.396

Run Diff-65

RD/Game-0.613

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3086; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	59	231	73	0.316	11	30	0.370	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.321	0.360	0.545	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	105	380	124	0.326	34	78	0.437	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.292	0.401	0.555	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	100	365	92	0.252	14	58	0.347	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.248	0.315	0.414	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	83	324	74	0.228	12	30	0.293	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.216	0.269	0.349	OK
Christian Walker	1B	103	379	89	0.235	20	61	0.312	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.227	0.291	0.382	OK
Yainer Diaz	C	48	185	43	0.232	6	22	0.262	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.226	0.257	0.351	OK
Cam Smith	RF	99	344	71	0.206	13	35	0.283	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.186	0.252	0.350	OK
Zach Dezenzo	LF	30	69	16	0.232	1	3	0.303	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.246	0.314	0.361	OK
Lucas Spence	CF	9	32	5	0.156	0	2	0.229	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.197	0.240	0.291	OK
TEAM TOTALS									30	29	2	2	2	1	7	0.069

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	104	409	96	0.235	19	46	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.218	0.295	0.380	OK
Mike Trout	CF	88	316	77	0.244	18	40	0.395	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.265	0.394	0.426	OK
Nolan Schanuel	1B	86	322	90	0.280	6	37	0.353	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.254	0.323	0.349	OK
Jorge Soler	DH	83	305	62	0.203	12	47	0.292	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.194	0.268	0.356	OK
Vaughn Grissom	2B	63	224	58	0.259	7	42	0.321	4	3	1	1	1	1	2	0.333	0.258	0.313	0.437	OK
Josh Lowe	LF	61	188	38	0.202	8	22	0.249	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.203	0.254	0.320	OK
Jo Adell	RF	106	407	99	0.243	16	60	0.292	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.235	0.274	0.420	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	34	132	31	0.235	4	14	0.284	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.200	0.244	0.300	OK
Tyler Heineman	C	10	31	7	0.226	0	2	0.294	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.205	0.248	0.300	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	7	3	3	2	10	0.212

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Peter Lambert	Starter	17	95.9	3.10	1.147	8.8	94	5.2	1	2	2	1	8	95	5.2	8	2
Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	22	20.3	0.89	0.837	14.6	33	1.1	2	0	0	1	0	24	1.1	0	0
Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	51	44.9	2.41	0.958	10.4	52	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.0	2	0
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	38	32.4	5.56	1.698	12.8	46	0.0	4	1	1	0	0	18	0.0	0	1

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Reid Detmers	Starter	21	116.5	4.17	1.133	10.5	136	5.2	2	2	2	0	6	91	5.2	6	2
Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	27	22.8	3.55	1.140	11.8	30	2.0	0	0	0	1	0	13	2.0	0	0
Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	39	39.2	4.82	1.480	10.6	46	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

LAA wins 3-2

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

KC 45-62 (4.21 RPG / 5.1 RA)

4 - 6

MIN 53-54 (4.78 RPG / 5.03 RA)

WINNER: MIN wins 6-4 TARGET: KC 4 - 6 MIN (MIN) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	4	8
MIN	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	x	6	9

KC Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff-13

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak2W

KC Season Quality

Record45-62

Win%0.421

Run Diff-96

RD/Game-0.897

MIN Season Quality

Record53-54

Win%0.495

Run Diff-27

RD/Game-0.252

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.757; margin adjustment: 0.3179; applied: True

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	C	97	345	83	0.241	14	52	0.310	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.233	0.304	0.391	OK
Lane Thomas	CF	87	270	62	0.230	10	36	0.324	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.219	0.303	0.400	OK
Jac Caglianone	RF	97	344	85	0.247	16	37	0.303	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.131	0.179	0.258	OK
Salvador Perez	DH	98	380	80	0.211	15	44	0.262	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.210	0.250	0.415	OK
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	77	285	67	0.235	6	33	0.323	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.264	0.344	0.372	OK
Nick Loftin	3B	67	209	52	0.249	5	34	0.325	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.259	0.320	0.435	OK
Michael Massey	2B	84	259	71	0.274	8	36	0.312	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.271	0.314	0.459	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	93	296	72	0.243	6	34	0.345	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.233	0.321	0.386	OK
Josh Rojas	SS	19	49	13	0.265	1	6	0.265	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.164	0.173	0.270	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	4	4	1	7	0.229

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trevor Larnach	LF	84	276	81	0.293	8	37	0.375	5	4	2	1	0	1	0	0.500	0.210	0.289	0.370	OK
Byron Buxton	CF	81	329	87	0.264	25	45	0.322	4	4	1	1	0	0	3	0.250	0.221	0.268	0.404	OK
Ryan Jeffers	C	44	157	46	0.293	9	35	0.388	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.272	0.357	0.487	OK
Kody Clemens	2B	91	338	82	0.243	18	49	0.299	4	3	2	1	3	1	0	0.667	0.170	0.219	0.358	OK
Josh Bell	DH	103	378	92	0.243	13	62	0.303	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.220	0.280	0.361	OK
Victor Caratini	1B	76	246	58	0.236	7	36	0.319	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.235	0.296	0.349	OK
Luke Keaschall	RF	98	330	85	0.258	4	30	0.351	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.245	0.335	0.328	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	99	377	93	0.247	15	55	0.301	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.219	0.270	0.372	OK
Ryan Kreidler	SS	57	160	39	0.244	5	25	0.292	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.233	0.275	0.409	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	9	6	6	4	11	0.273

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Seth Lugo	Starter	21	115.8	4.43	1.390	7.3	94	5.2	5	4	4	1	8	102	5.2	8	4
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	41	38.5	6.55	1.636	10.1	43	1.0	4	2	2	1	2	29	1.0	2	2
Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	43	38.9	2.31	1.028	7.9	34	1.1	0	0	0	2	1	36	1.1	1	0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Taj Bradley	Starter	20	112.8	3.75	1.241	10.3	129	6.0	7	4	4	0	3	98	6.0	3	4
Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	34	26.6	2.03	1.165	10.2	30	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	39	43.7	3.71	1.442	10.5	51	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	13	1.1	1	0
Tommy Nance	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	2.95	1.639	8.9	6	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	20	0.2	2	0

Game Summary

MIN wins 6-4

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants

MIL 66-40 (5.05 RPG / 3.74 RA)

5 - 2

SF 46-61 (4.17 RPG / 4.63 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 5-2 TARGET: MIL 5 - 2 SF (MIL) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	5	8
SF	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs5.1

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff7

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

SF Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff9

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

MIL Season Quality

Record66-39

Win%0.629

Run Diff142

RD/Game1.352

SF Season Quality

Record45-61

Win%0.425

Run Diff-52

RD/Game-0.491

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.149; margin adjustment: -0.9026; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Christian Yelich	DH	67	261	60	0.230	7	35	0.319	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.238	0.314	0.418	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	70	294	83	0.282	13	40	0.340	5	3	2	1	0	2	1	0.667	0.259	0.310	0.416	OK
Brice Turang	2B	97	378	103	0.272	15	62	0.363	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.277	0.368	0.481	OK
William Contreras	C	97	375	101	0.269	10	56	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.243	0.305	0.359	OK
Jake Bauers	RF	93	316	83	0.263	17	58	0.366	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.273	0.369	0.430	OK
Andrew Vaughn	1B	59	169	53	0.314	4	28	0.389	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.286	0.353	0.529	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	88	290	76	0.262	7	41	0.347	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.243	0.330	0.405	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	30	96	27	0.281	2	12	0.351	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.296	0.356	0.471	OK
Joey Ortiz	3B	79	233	54	0.232	5	27	0.300	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.273	0.341	0.469	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	35	8	5	5	4	13	0.229

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Luis Arraez	2B	99	392	129	0.329	4	40	0.366	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.269	0.305	0.380	OK
Heliot Ramos	LF	67	260	65	0.250	9	31	0.285	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.209	0.241	0.353	OK
Bryce Eldridge	DH	64	220	56	0.255	10	23	0.358	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.215	0.322	0.385	OK
Rafael Devers	1B	105	396	98	0.247	21	59	0.321	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.232	0.306	0.470	OK
Casey Schmitt	3B	96	380	102	0.268	21	54	0.299	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.217	0.242	0.416	OK
Drew Gilbert	CF	76	214	51	0.238	4	21	0.302	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.238	0.291	0.346	OK
Willy Adames	SS	100	387	88	0.227	17	44	0.279	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.209	0.257	0.397	OK
Grant McCray	RF	4	8	1	0.125	1	2	0.125	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.100	0.114	0.160	OK
Jesus Rodriguez	C	18	50	12	0.240	2	8	0.296	3	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.217	0.266	0.387	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	31	4	2	2	2	9	0.129

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Logan Henderson	Starter	8	38.1	3.07	0.945	11.1	47	5.0	2	2	2	1	6	74	5.0	6	2
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	40	39.1	2.07	0.946	11.3	49	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	20	1.0	0	0
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	42	38.4	2.58	1.146	9.6	41	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	49	54.4	3.64	1.544	13.6	82	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Grant Anderson	Middle Reliever	42	38.4	4.22	1.354	8.9	38	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Landen Roupp	Starter	20	107.2	4.03	1.269	9.5	113	5.2	4	2	2	1	12	97	5.2	12	2
Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	41	36.2	4.48	1.409	12.2	49	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	35	26.9	3.01	1.524	14.7	44	1.0	3	3	3	1	1	15	1.0	1	3
JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	31	45.6	2.96	1.228	6.9	35	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	25	1.1	0	0
Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	35	30.0	3.90	1.333	8.1	27	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-2

New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox

NYY 60-46 (4.69 RPG / 3.86 RA)

4 - 3

CHW 55-50 (4.82 RPG / 4.42 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 4-3 TARGET: NYY 4 - 3 CHW (NYY) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	4	7
CHW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	3	6

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff-3

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.2

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff7

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

NYY Season Quality

Record60-46

Win%0.566

Run Diff88

RD/Game0.830

CHW Season Quality

Record55-50

Win%0.524

Run Diff42

RD/Game0.400

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4935; margin adjustment: -0.2073; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Paul Goldschmidt	1B	74	270	70	0.259	16	43	0.314	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.249	0.301	0.438	OK
Ben Rice	DH	98	369	102	0.276	30	69	0.366	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.250	0.328	0.479	OK
Amed Rosario	3B	58	162	38	0.235	9	26	0.272	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.235	0.270	0.393	OK
Jasson Domínguez	RF	43	165	39	0.236	6	14	0.267	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.235	0.259	0.393	OK
Anthony Volpe	SS	49	153	38	0.248	1	16	0.343	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.257	0.346	0.371	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	96	342	78	0.228	16	45	0.297	4	3	0	1	1	1	1	0.000	0.247	0.305	0.495	OK
José Caballero	LF	90	301	71	0.236	10	37	0.287	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.204	0.249	0.306	OK
Trent Grisham	CF	82	285	61	0.214	10	40	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.177	0.278	0.321	OK
Ali Sánchez	C	20	47	12	0.255	1	7	0.294	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.216	0.236	0.325	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	4	4	3	10	0.206

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Tristan Peters	CF	68	194	56	0.289	3	24	0.344	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.168	0.227	0.325	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	74	271	59	0.218	20	45	0.312	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.202	0.270	0.432	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	74	281	76	0.270	6	25	0.334	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.234	0.287	0.337	OK
Munetaka Murakami	IF	56	198	48	0.242	20	41	0.381	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.240	0.369	0.518	OK
Drew Romo	C	27	90	13	0.144	5	11	0.228	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.103	0.177	0.212	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	75	275	65	0.236	16	44	0.350	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.216	0.307	0.373	OK
Braden Montgomery	OF	12	42	11	0.262	1	5	0.311	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.238	0.291	0.423	OK
Sam Antonacci	SS	58	199	58	0.291	4	22	0.391	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.274	0.333	0.457	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	69	214	50	0.234	9	37	0.292	3	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.212	0.271	0.437	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	3	3	1	5	0.182

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gerrit Cole	Starter	11	60.6	4.01	1.122	9.8	66	5.2	4	1	1	1	5	90	5.2	5	1
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	49	32.2	3.35	1.801	15.4	55	2.0	2	2	2	0	0	31	2.0	0	2
Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	53	43.3	1.66	1.339	13.1	63	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Davis Martin	Starter	14	79.8	3.38	1.216	9.4	83	6.0	4	3	3	3	7	100	6.0	7	3
Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	1.48	1.311	11.8	8	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1	2.1	8.57	1.905	4.3	1	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	23	1.0	1	1
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	24	20.9	1.72	1.483	9.9	23	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-3

Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

PHI 57-50 (4.36 RPG / 4.48 RA)

2 - 3

MIA 53-54 (4.41 RPG / 4.38 RA)

WINNER: MIA wins 3-2 TARGET: PHI 2 - 3 MIA (MIA) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PHI	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	6
MIA	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	x	3	8

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-2

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.100

Avg Runs3.3

Avg Allowed5.4

Run Diff-21

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

PHI Season Quality

Record57-50

Win%0.533

Run Diff-12

RD/Game-0.112

MIA Season Quality

Record53-54

Win%0.495

Run Diff3

RD/Game0.028

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0841; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trea Turner	SS	101	423	104	0.246	14	41	0.293	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.238	0.280	0.396	OK
Kyle Schwarber	DH	101	383	96	0.251	32	61	0.361	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.247	0.344	0.447	OK
Bryce Harper	1B	105	373	94	0.252	22	63	0.360	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.221	0.333	0.437	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	100	370	105	0.284	16	47	0.325	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.226	0.273	0.362	OK
Alec Bohm	3B	101	379	85	0.224	13	57	0.284	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.242	0.287	0.395	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	100	352	90	0.256	8	46	0.312	4	4	3	1	1	0	0	0.750	0.266	0.318	0.462	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	76	259	59	0.228	7	36	0.302	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.277	0.330	0.394	OK
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	RF	28	82	14	0.171	2	7	0.207	3	2	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.198	0.218	0.323	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	93	282	70	0.248	2	22	0.297	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.237	0.277	0.334	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	6	2	2	1	6	0.188

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Otto Lopez	SS	103	411	136	0.331	9	48	0.365	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.269	0.307	0.414	OK
Kyle Stowers	1B	82	308	72	0.234	13	45	0.316	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.226	0.288	0.417	OK
Heriberto Hernández	LF	75	245	60	0.245	15	41	0.306	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.250	0.299	0.481	OK
Xavier Edwards	2B	106	393	114	0.290	6	37	0.369	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.244	0.318	0.346	OK
Liam Hicks	DH	95	333	93	0.279	14	60	0.358	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.237	0.309	0.357	OK
Griffin Conine	RF	38	109	29	0.266	8	18	0.350	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.161	0.250	0.331	OK
Javier Sanoja	3B	78	264	70	0.265	3	35	0.296	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.229	0.263	0.357	OK
Joe Mack	C	60	184	43	0.234	10	30	0.288	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.215	0.257	0.415	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	101	347	69	0.199	5	26	0.320	3	2	1	0	0	1	0	0.500	0.218	0.321	0.315	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	8	3	3	3	3	0.250

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Aaron Nola	Starter	21	105.3	5.98	1.491	9.6	112	5.0	6	3	3	2	1	96	5.0	1	3
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	37	34.4	1.57	0.959	13.9	53	1.2	1	0	0	1	2	28	1.2	2	0
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	43	35.9	3.01	1.365	11.0	44	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sandy Alcantara	Starter	22	141.8	4.06	1.248	7.0	110	6.1	4	0	0	1	4	100	6.1	4	0
Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	34	29.7	7.58	1.549	12.7	42	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	18	1.0	1	1
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	43	39.2	3.21	1.148	11.7	51	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
Cade Gibson	Middle Reliever	23	24.5	6.61	1.673	9.2	25	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	4	0.2	0	1

Game Summary

MIA wins 3-2

Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers

SEA 52-55 (4.01 RPG / 3.93 RA)

3 - 5

LAD 67-39 (5.15 RPG / 3.69 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 5-3 TARGET: SEA 3 - 5 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	6
LAD	0	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	x	5	10

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

SEA Season Quality

Record52-55

Win%0.486

Run Diff8

RD/Game0.075

LAD Season Quality

Record67-39

Win%0.632

Run Diff155

RD/Game1.462

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.6066; margin adjustment: 0.6748; applied: True

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Cole Young	2B	107	387	99	0.256	13	48	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.243	0.286	0.374	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	99	363	103	0.284	13	47	0.378	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.252	0.313	0.426	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	95	377	96	0.255	15	45	0.314	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.227	0.272	0.354	OK
Dominic Canzone	RF	90	262	68	0.260	16	46	0.326	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.246	0.304	0.452	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	74	273	45	0.165	10	35	0.269	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.183	0.276	0.291	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	100	391	101	0.258	8	37	0.322	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.245	0.302	0.336	OK
Weston Wilson	3B	14	32	7	0.219	2	7	0.242	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.209	0.275	0.378	OK
Colt Emerson	SS	55	178	36	0.202	7	21	0.265	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.212	0.265	0.328	OK
J.P. Crawford	SS	85	303	65	0.215	10	30	0.333	3	2	1	1	0	1	0	0.500	0.203	0.318	0.310	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	3	3	2	6	0.182

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	96	368	103	0.280	22	59	0.386	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.247	0.338	0.435	OK
Andy Pages	CF	103	399	105	0.263	17	68	0.331	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.241	0.309	0.387	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	102	385	116	0.301	15	50	0.383	4	3	1	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.325	0.394	0.491	OK
Max Muncy	3B	95	316	80	0.253	20	48	0.348	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.232	0.318	0.485	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	67	268	62	0.231	13	34	0.286	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.219	0.271	0.366	OK
Tommy Edman	2B	27	94	31	0.330	2	15	0.400	4	4	3	1	1	0	0	0.750	0.274	0.319	0.443	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	96	351	84	0.239	9	51	0.328	4	4	2	1	2	0	2	0.500	0.229	0.313	0.424	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	69	247	62	0.251	8	36	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.251	0.320	0.370	OK
Dalton Rushing	C	64	201	50	0.249	11	33	0.318	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.229	0.283	0.418	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	10	5	5	2	12	0.294

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Luis Castillo	Starter	19	92.1	4.98	1.368	8.2	84	5.2	9	5	5	1	9	114	5.2	9	5
Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	39	35.7	3.53	1.176	14.6	58	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	13	0.0	0	0
José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	47	38.1	3.07	1.496	8.5	36	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	49	39.0	3.46	1.513	10.8	47	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Justin Wrobleski	Starter	17	105.5	2.64	1.024	6.8	80	6.2	4	3	3	1	6	100	6.2	6	3
Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	7	6.2	7.26	1.452	13.1	9	2.0	1	0	0	1	0	25	2.0	0	0
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	46	27.4	3.28	1.533	16.4	50	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	14	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 5-3

Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays

TEX 54-52 (4.25 RPG / 4.44 RA)

3 - 5

TB 62-43 (4.51 RPG / 4.11 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 5-3 TARGET: TEX 3 - 5 TB (TB) Confidence: 59.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	3	8
TB	0	2	0	0	0	2	1	0	x	5	9

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.1

Avg Allowed5.7

Run Diff-6

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.9

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff20

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak3W

TEX Season Quality

Record54-52

Win%0.509

Run Diff-21

RD/Game-0.198

TB Season Quality

Record62-43

Win%0.590

Run Diff42

RD/Game0.400

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7197; margin adjustment: 0.3023; applied: True

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Evan Carter	CF	86	247	49	0.198	8	27	0.309	5	5	2	1	1	0	2	0.400	0.154	0.270	0.272	OK
Nicky Lopez	2B	48	142	46	0.324	1	17	0.360	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0.400	0.193	0.223	0.242	OK
Ezequiel Duran	SS	95	333	91	0.273	12	56	0.324	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.179	0.237	0.346	OK
Jake Burger	1B	101	374	89	0.238	19	66	0.300	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.222	0.281	0.418	OK
Elias Díaz	C	29	92	23	0.250	2	11	0.263	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.215	0.231	0.349	OK
Cameron Cauley	SS	16	36	9	0.250	1	1	0.341	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.243	0.314	0.455	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	100	384	104	0.271	10	39	0.336	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.277	0.332	0.452	OK
Wyatt Langford	LF	54	218	62	0.284	12	29	0.328	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.262	0.302	0.494	OK
Joc Pederson	DH	94	279	71	0.254	19	40	0.341	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.182	0.262	0.366	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	8	3	3	3	6	0.229

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Cedric Mullins	CF	89	310	63	0.203	12	33	0.282	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.218	0.277	0.352	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	77	244	54	0.221	0	21	0.313	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.231	0.307	0.327	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	75	220	51	0.232	4	30	0.328	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.146	0.244	0.269	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	102	376	107	0.285	14	65	0.378	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.239	0.321	0.365	OK
Hunter Feduccia	C	53	133	31	0.233	2	11	0.299	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.159	0.228	0.271	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	104	396	112	0.283	29	63	0.373	4	3	2	1	0	1	1	0.667	0.257	0.340	0.440	OK
Jonny DeLuca	RF	57	190	51	0.268	6	32	0.305	4	4	2	1	4	0	0	0.500	0.255	0.291	0.427	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	95	365	108	0.296	0	20	0.327	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.204	0.244	0.280	OK
Yandy Díaz	DH	100	389	119	0.306	14	61	0.381	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.231	0.297	0.358	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	9	5	5	4	7	0.273

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jacob deGrom	Starter	20	108.7	3.73	1.086	10.9	132	5.2	3	2	2	4	7	99	5.2	7	2
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	38	46.2	1.36	0.628	9.9	51	1.1	3	2	2	0	0	26	1.1	0	2
Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	32	34.0	3.97	1.412	10.9	41	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	22	1.0	0	1
Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	39	29.5	7.32	1.627	11.0	36	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	0.0	0	0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Griffin Jax	Starter	26	78.2	3.68	1.215	9.4	82	5.0	5	1	1	1	4	82	5.0	4	1
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	42	39.4	1.60	0.863	9.8	43	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	20	1.0	0	1
Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	43	40.9	2.64	1.027	7.7	35	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	5	1.1	1	0
Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	35	28.2	3.83	1.383	13.4	42	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Casey Legumina	Middle Reliever	25	27.7	3.57	1.336	7.1	22	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	19	0.2	0	1

Game Summary

TB wins 5-3

Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals

TOR 49-58 (3.92 RPG / 4.49 RA)

3 - 6

WAS 54-53 (5.48 RPG / 5.21 RA)

WINNER: WAS wins 6-3 TARGET: TOR 3 - 6 WAS (WAS) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	3	7
WAS	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	x	6	10

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs2.3

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff-18

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs7.0

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff22

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

TOR Season Quality

Record49-58

Win%0.458

Run Diff-61

RD/Game-0.570

WAS Season Quality

Record54-53

Win%0.505

Run Diff29

RD/Game0.271

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9112; margin adjustment: 0.3827; applied: True

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ernie Clement	SS	104	402	119	0.296	8	34	0.321	5	3	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.257	0.278	0.368	OK
Nathan Lukes	RF	70	231	65	0.281	5	18	0.335	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.251	0.288	0.371	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	101	379	100	0.264	6	44	0.340	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.266	0.334	0.356	OK
George Springer	DH	76	296	69	0.233	11	30	0.313	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.241	0.310	0.404	OK
Alejandro Kirk	C	34	116	26	0.224	3	12	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.255	0.322	0.386	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	103	379	85	0.224	23	65	0.304	4	4	1	1	1	0	3	0.250	0.199	0.264	0.379	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	87	315	77	0.244	7	25	0.305	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.260	0.312	0.375	OK
Luis Urías	2B	16	38	9	0.237	3	4	0.326	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.201	0.257	0.351	OK
Myles Straw	LF	76	168	37	0.220	3	16	0.269	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.179	0.234	0.242	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	3	3	3	10	0.206

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	RF	107	412	112	0.272	30	72	0.398	4	4	2	1	1	0	2	0.500	0.254	0.361	0.521	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	99	336	94	0.280	21	71	0.312	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.177	0.217	0.366	OK
José Tena	DH	76	185	45	0.243	5	20	0.307	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.271	0.323	0.431	OK
CJ Abrams	SS	103	386	114	0.295	27	82	0.368	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.342	0.393	0.699	OK
Dylan Crews	CF	55	206	47	0.228	8	23	0.309	4	3	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.263	0.336	0.435	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	105	405	99	0.244	11	51	0.295	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.232	0.277	0.400	OK
Keibert Ruiz	C	67	221	59	0.267	7	35	0.295	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.253	0.282	0.434	OK
Jorbit Vivas	3B	72	192	46	0.240	3	17	0.320	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.239	0.325	0.361	OK
Nasim Nuñez	2B	93	300	75	0.250	1	30	0.333	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.244	0.331	0.302	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	10	6	6	2	10	0.294

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shane Bieber	Starter	6	29.5	4.88	1.492	6.7	22	5.0	9	6	6	1	7	94	5.0	7	6
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	48	49.5	1.09	1.030	13.1	72	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	49	44.4	1.62	1.149	5.5	27	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	48	40.1	4.71	1.596	15.7	70	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	12	0.1	1	0
Braydon Fisher	Middle Reliever	50	44.3	4.88	1.467	10.6	52	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	16	0.2	0	0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cade Cavalli	Starter	22	108.1	3.66	1.323	10.6	127	5.1	5	2	2	2	7	90	5.1	7	2
Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	32	28.4	3.49	1.338	10.5	33	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	21	1.1	1	0
Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	32	26.4	4.09	1.364	9.5	28	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Tom Cosgrove	Middle Reliever	6	4.6	1.96	1.739	7.8	4	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

WAS wins 6-3

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates

ARI Recent Form

PIT Recent Form

ARI Season Quality

PIT Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets

ATL Recent Form

NYM Recent Form

ATL Season Quality

NYM Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers

BAL Recent Form

DET Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

DET Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics

BOS Recent Form

OAK Recent Form

BOS Season Quality

OAK Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

CHC Recent Form

STL Recent Form

CHC Season Quality

STL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds

CLE Recent Form

CIN Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

CIN Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds

CLE Recent Form

CIN Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

CIN Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres