MLB Predictions — July 27, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
ARI @ PIT	4 - 2	4 - 2	ARI	ARI	ARI wins 4-2	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
ATL @ NYM	6 - 2	6 - 2	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 6-2	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BAL @ DET	3 - 4	3 - 4	DET	DET	DET wins 4-3	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BOS @ OAK	5 - 2	5 - 2	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 5-2	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ STL	1 - 3	1 - 3	STL	STL	STL wins 3-1	51%	fallback_enhanced
CLE @ CIN	3 - 5	3 - 5	CIN	CIN	CIN wins 5-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ LAA	2 - 5	2 - 5	LAA	LAA	LAA wins 5-2	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ SF	6 - 3	6 - 3	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 6-3	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYY @ CHW	2 - 1	2 - 1	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 2-1	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PHI @ MIA	4 - 3	4 - 3	PHI	PHI	PHI wins 4-3	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SEA @ TEX	3 - 6	3 - 6	TEX	TEX	TEX wins 6-3	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TOR @ WAS	2 - 5	2 - 5	WAS	WAS	WAS wins 5-2	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates

ARI 55-52 (4.5 RPG / 4.53 RA)

4 - 2

PIT 55-52 (5.2 RPG / 4.81 RA)

WINNER: ARI wins 4-2 TARGET: ARI 4 - 2 PIT (ARI) Confidence: 54.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	4	10
PIT	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	6

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs6.3

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff10

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak2L

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.1

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff5

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

ARI Season Quality

Record55-51

Win%0.519

Run Diff-3

RD/Game-0.028

PIT Season Quality

Record54-52

Win%0.509

Run Diff40

RD/Game0.377

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3915; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ryan Waldschmidt	CF	32	112	29	0.259	0	8	0.314	5	5	3	1	0	0	0	0.600	0.157	0.210	0.281	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	75	257	61	0.237	4	27	0.354	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.222	0.344	0.330	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	73	297	78	0.263	12	46	0.315	5	5	1	1	2	0	1	0.200	0.276	0.328	0.458	OK
Tim Tawa	LF	14	36	5	0.139	0	2	0.238	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.214	0.300	0.332	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	51	174	48	0.276	6	25	0.358	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.282	0.358	0.463	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	73	247	59	0.239	8	32	0.315	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.234	0.294	0.347	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	75	278	79	0.284	13	42	0.372	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.282	0.360	0.548	OK
Max Kepler	LF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.248	0.312	0.408
Ildemaro Vargas	1B	62	230	60	0.261	7	37	0.299	4	4	3	0	0	0	0	0.750	0.187	0.245	0.294	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	37	10	4	4	2	6	0.270

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake Mangum	CF	73	256	79	0.309	2	21	0.350	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.281	0.311	0.374	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	94	370	90	0.243	21	65	0.313	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.229	0.296	0.391	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	103	374	102	0.273	14	59	0.387	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.228	0.327	0.393	OK
Esmerlyn Valdez	RF	34	111	32	0.288	11	28	0.385	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.263	0.373	0.602	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	DH	86	327	94	0.287	17	67	0.349	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.267	0.329	0.434	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	96	366	113	0.309	4	45	0.363	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.279	0.323	0.368	OK
Jacob Gonzalez	SS	7	16	2	0.125	0	1	0.125	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.220	0.270	0.337	OK
Tyler Callihan	1B	33	88	20	0.227	3	15	0.303	3	3	2	1	0	0	0	0.667	0.132	0.202	0.269	OK
Henry Davis	C	58	180	31	0.172	8	28	0.261	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.203	0.265	0.322	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	6	2	2	1	11	0.182

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	15	86.7	2.49	1.257	6.7	65	6.2	3	1	1	1	9	102	6.2	9	1
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	2	2.1	0.00	0.476	8.6	2	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	16	0.2	1	0
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1	1.0	9.00	2.000	0.0	0	0.2	0	1	1	0	0	21	0.2	0	1

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Mitch Keller	Starter	20	106.7	4.98	1.331	7.0	83	5.1	7	4	4	1	3	92	5.1	3	4
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	42	40.1	3.37	1.022	10.5	47	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0
Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	42	35.8	4.27	1.397	16.3	65	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	43	49.2	3.66	1.545	11.2	61	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	22	1.1	1	0
Carmen Mlodzinski	Middle Reliever	23	85.3	3.48	1.407	7.5	71	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	12	0.1	1	0

Game Summary

ARI wins 4-2

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets

ATL 62-45 (4.91 RPG / 4.06 RA)

6 - 2

NYM 45-62 (4.17 RPG / 4.64 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 6-2 TARGET: ATL 6 - 2 NYM (ATL) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	3	0	6	8
NYM	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs6.0

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff15

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff2

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

ATL Season Quality

Record62-44

Win%0.585

Run Diff102

RD/Game0.962

NYM Season Quality

Record44-62

Win%0.415

Run Diff-62

RD/Game-0.585

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.8019; margin adjustment: -0.7568; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drake Baldwin	DH	82	314	88	0.280	20	56	0.375	5	4	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.296	0.381	0.524	OK
Matt Olson	1B	105	408	108	0.265	27	63	0.341	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0.200	0.253	0.334	0.473	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	105	409	107	0.262	17	57	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.242	0.288	0.427	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	99	380	114	0.300	19	61	0.326	4	4	1	1	0	0	3	0.250	0.280	0.303	0.488	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	101	379	100	0.264	10	55	0.315	4	4	3	1	1	0	1	0.750	0.254	0.301	0.375	OK
Austin Riley	3B	105	379	82	0.216	12	50	0.295	4	4	1	1	3	0	2	0.250	0.250	0.307	0.398	OK
Joey Bart	C	16	40	7	0.175	2	7	0.298	4	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.244	0.292	0.407	OK
Jim Jarvis	SS	20	61	16	0.262	1	8	0.308	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.333	0.241	0.280	0.400	OK
Brewer Hicklen	RF	6	19	7	0.368	0	3	0.455	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.231	0.331	0.480	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	8	6	6	2	13	0.229

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
A.J. Ewing	RF	65	231	62	0.268	7	25	0.344	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.224	0.295	0.348	OK
Francisco Lindor	SS	48	188	42	0.223	6	17	0.308	5	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.222	0.295	0.362	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	102	409	105	0.257	10	52	0.302	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.235	0.280	0.326	OK
Luis Robert Jr.	CF	29	100	21	0.210	4	10	0.313	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.196	0.291	0.365	OK
Francisco Alvarez	DH	67	223	56	0.251	11	25	0.323	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.241	0.317	0.424	OK
Jared Young	1B	54	157	39	0.248	6	16	0.322	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.168	0.222	0.306	OK
Tyrone Taylor	LF	52	128	30	0.234	7	22	0.279	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.253	0.302	0.537	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	85	306	65	0.212	11	33	0.269	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.192	0.247	0.357	OK
Luis Torrens	C	58	172	39	0.227	2	19	0.285	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.146	0.194	0.233	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	8	2	2	2	5	0.229

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Martín Pérez	Starter	19	83.7	3.44	1.219	7.0	65	5.0	5	2	2	2	4	86	5.0	4	2
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	36	35.6	2.53	1.124	10.9	43	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	49	41.6	2.60	0.865	13.0	60	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	35	38.9	3.01	1.311	11.8	51	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	21	1.1	0	0
Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	43	32.2	5.03	1.491	10.6	38	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	12	0.2	0	0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zach Thornton	Starter	4	23.1	1.95	0.866	6.6	17	5.2	2	1	1	1	10	93	5.2	10	1
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	37	32.1	4.21	1.620	13.5	48	1.0	3	2	2	1	1	26	1.0	1	2
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	40	39.9	2.03	0.877	9.7	43	1.0	3	3	3	0	2	22	1.0	2	3
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	43	33.3	2.43	1.321	10.5	39	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	24	1.1	0	0

Game Summary

ATL wins 6-2

Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers

BAL 52-55 (4.59 RPG / 4.69 RA)

3 - 4

DET 50-57 (4.21 RPG / 3.97 RA)

WINNER: DET wins 4-3 TARGET: BAL 3 - 4 DET (DET) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	9
DET	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	4	9

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff11

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

DET Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak2L

BAL Season Quality

Record51-55

Win%0.481

Run Diff-14

RD/Game-0.132

DET Season Quality

Record50-56

Win%0.472

Run Diff28

RD/Game0.264

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3821; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Dylan Beavers	RF	48	154	39	0.253	2	16	0.329	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.254	0.322	0.364	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	103	386	97	0.251	22	67	0.347	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.237	0.317	0.428	OK
Gunnar Henderson	DH	102	423	93	0.220	17	44	0.291	5	3	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.219	0.274	0.405	OK
Taylor Ward	LF	102	382	97	0.254	7	26	0.386	5	5	3	1	0	0	0	0.600	0.238	0.355	0.357	OK
Leody Taveras	CF	85	273	62	0.227	4	37	0.307	5	5	1	1	2	0	2	0.200	0.131	0.228	0.235	OK
Jackson Holliday	SS	50	138	30	0.217	5	17	0.323	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.240	0.357	0.372	OK
Coby Mayo	3B	76	236	47	0.199	13	35	0.266	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.227	0.277	0.459	OK
Jeremiah Jackson	2B	64	207	51	0.246	6	31	0.265	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.224	0.249	0.350	OK
Chadwick Tromp	C	5	16	3	0.188	0	1	0.188	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.128	0.137	0.186	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	36	9	3	3	5	10	0.250

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kevin McGonigle	SS	101	380	107	0.282	9	35	0.389	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.251	0.343	0.377	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	96	353	98	0.278	22	68	0.344	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.280	0.328	0.493	OK
Colt Keith	3B	95	278	70	0.252	8	23	0.299	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.256	0.293	0.380	OK
Riley Greene	DH	104	376	107	0.285	15	52	0.373	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.247	0.330	0.423	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	104	354	72	0.203	19	49	0.300	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.216	0.306	0.429	OK
Zach McKinstry	RF	77	242	49	0.202	4	20	0.275	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.238	0.300	0.339	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	2B	62	179	49	0.274	6	23	0.309	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.296	0.335	0.530	OK
James Outman	CF	27	85	14	0.165	4	13	0.202	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.102	0.142	0.208	OK
Matt Vierling	LF	81	257	50	0.195	5	29	0.246	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.131	0.184	0.217	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	33	9	4	4	4	5	0.273

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kyle Bradish	Starter	20	111.0	3.57	1.351	8.9	110	6.0	7	3	3	2	3	105	6.0	3	3
Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	34	26.4	4.09	1.553	9.2	27	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	13	0.0	0	0
Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever	41	47.5	3.03	1.074	10.0	53	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9	1.0	0	0
Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	48	40.1	3.37	0.998	10.5	47	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15	1.0	2	0
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	45	27.9	2.58	1.111	9.4	29	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	11	0.0	0	0
Grant Wolfram	Middle Reliever	38	21.1	5.55	1.801	14.1	33	0.0	2	1	1	0	0	14	0.0	0	1

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Keider Montero	Starter	22	102.5	3.25	0.995	6.8	78	5.0	6	2	2	5	7	102	5.0	7	2
Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	30	25.8	3.49	1.240	10.8	31	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	44	40.4	2.45	1.559	8.0	36	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	44	39.3	3.44	1.552	8.5	37	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Drew Anderson	Middle Reliever	37	53.5	4.71	1.477	12.4	74	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	21	1.0	2	1

Game Summary

DET wins 4-3

Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics

BOS 54-50 (4.21 RPG / 3.77 RA)

5 - 2

OAK 44-61 (4.46 RPG / 5.65 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 5-2 TARGET: BOS 5 - 2 OAK (BOS) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	0	5	5
OAK	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	6

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff9

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed7.3

Run Diff-31.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

BOS Season Quality

Record54-50

Win%0.519

Run Diff46

RD/Game0.442

OAK Season Quality

Record44-61

Win%0.419

Run Diff-125

RD/Game-1.190

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.7831; margin adjustment: -0.7489; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Masataka Yoshida	DH	65	198	49	0.247	3	18	0.318	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.154	0.228	0.258	OK
Curtis Mead	2B	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	2	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.184	0.296	0.354
Willson Contreras	1B	94	336	96	0.286	22	66	0.385	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.279	0.358	0.499	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	100	383	99	0.258	15	51	0.329	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.232	0.299	0.433	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	96	375	104	0.277	9	44	0.321	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.249	0.279	0.407	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	93	313	71	0.227	10	41	0.293	4	4	1	1	3	0	0	0.250	0.236	0.295	0.395	OK
Jarren Duran	LF	95	368	72	0.196	13	48	0.257	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.231	0.278	0.341	OK
Andruw Monasterio	SS	60	175	44	0.251	5	18	0.302	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.184	0.249	0.354	OK
Connor Wong	C	44	125	34	0.272	1	15	0.366	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.152	0.240	0.232	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	5	5	5	3	5	0.156

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jacob Wilson	SS	65	263	73	0.278	7	32	0.310	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.222	0.247	0.354	OK
Tyler Soderstrom	DH	93	334	84	0.251	16	49	0.348	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.247	0.328	0.421	OK
Jonah Heim	C	46	154	35	0.227	8	24	0.271	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.212	0.252	0.344	OK
Colby Thomas	LF	46	105	21	0.200	4	11	0.236	4	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.188	0.216	0.301	OK
Tommy White	3B	8	31	10	0.323	0	0	0.364	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.237	0.281	0.355	OK
Jeff McNeil	1B	91	287	70	0.244	4	33	0.302	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.267	0.315	0.402	OK
Henry Bolte	CF	59	198	49	0.247	3	17	0.320	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.197	0.252	0.281	OK
Alika Williams	2B	34	96	26	0.271	2	9	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.146	0.171	0.280	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	90	262	52	0.198	5	25	0.294	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.211	0.306	0.315	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	2	2	1	7	0.182

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Payton Tolle	Starter	16	87.8	3.38	1.128	9.8	96	5.1	3	1	1	1	6	86	5.1	6	1
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	34	33.2	1.08	1.145	11.4	42	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	39	37.3	2.17	0.912	9.7	40	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	29	21.0	6.00	1.714	14.6	34	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jack Perkins	Starter	25	58.7	7.21	1.516	11.7	76	4.0	4	3	3	2	3	71	4.0	3	3
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	49	36.8	3.91	1.848	14.9	61	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0
Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	28	25.8	6.28	1.434	12.6	36	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	33	43.5	3.52	1.448	11.8	57	1.1	1	2	2	1	0	23	1.1	0	2
José Suarez	Middle Reliever	27	31.3	3.74	1.278	10.1	35	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

BOS wins 5-2

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

CHC 59-46 (5.15 RPG / 4.43 RA)

1 - 3

STL 53-52 (4.44 RPG / 4.45 RA)

WINNER: STL wins 3-1 TARGET: CHC 1 - 3 STL (STL) Confidence: 51.0% fallback_enhanced

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	4
STL	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	x	3	10

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.508844339622642

Avg Allowed4.508844339622642

Run Diff?

Off Trend?

Def Trend?

Streak?

STL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.508844339622642

Avg Allowed4.508844339622642

Run Diff?

Off Trend?

Def Trend?

Streak?

CHC Season Quality

Record?-?

Win%?

Run Diff?

RD/Game?

STL Season Quality

Record?-?

Win%?

Run Diff?

RD/Game?

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -; margin adjustment: -; applied: False

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	103	385	113	0.294	23	60	0.391	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.293	0.377	0.570	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	88	331	89	0.269	18	58	0.359	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.238	0.328	0.450	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	101	398	94	0.236	10	44	0.334	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.223	0.307	0.346	OK
Carson Kelly	DH	74	241	62	0.257	6	35	0.347	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.221	0.306	0.333	OK
Michael Busch	1B	102	381	95	0.249	12	54	0.368	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.264	0.359	0.412	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	101	407	101	0.248	4	44	0.309	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.258	0.308	0.346	OK
Ian Happ	LF	98	365	81	0.222	18	45	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.235	0.340	0.396	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	98	338	74	0.219	14	54	0.300	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.250	0.327	0.392	OK
Miguel Amaya	C	46	142	34	0.239	3	17	0.337	4	4	2	0	0	0	2	0.500	0.228	0.290	0.342	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	31	4	1	1	4	8	0.129

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	97	384	97	0.253	15	39	0.348	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.217	0.293	0.355	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	101	389	112	0.288	20	72	0.349	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.237	0.290	0.397	OK
Iván Herrera	C	102	378	90	0.238	11	42	0.360	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.224	0.295	0.353	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	102	393	114	0.290	15	70	0.349	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.291	0.339	0.445	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	94	345	82	0.238	4	42	0.310	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.223	0.296	0.299	OK
Nelson Velázquez	DH	28	66	14	0.212	4	12	0.284	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.201	0.266	0.373	OK
José Fermín	CF	65	175	45	0.257	4	21	0.320	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.211	0.285	0.301	OK
Lars Nootbaar	LF	41	133	32	0.241	3	15	0.346	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.208	0.318	0.323	OK
Blaze Jordan	3B	31	105	25	0.238	1	22	0.257	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.216	0.247	0.345	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	10	3	3	3	4	0.294

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
David Peterson	Starter	4	19.6	5.97	1.378	5.1	11	5.0	6	3	3	2	1	89	5.0	1	3
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	45	39.9	3.16	1.454	11.5	51	1.1	1	0	0	1	2	12	1.1	2	0
Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	27	28.9	2.49	1.073	4.7	15	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	35	25.4	4.61	1.417	14.2	40	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	13	0.2	0	0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Matthew Liberatore	Starter	20	96.2	5.33	1.559	8.9	95	4.2	4	1	1	2	7	95	4.2	7	1
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	42	39.8	3.84	1.281	9.9	44	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	47	40.5	4.00	1.259	9.6	43	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	22	1.2	0	0
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	44	33.8	5.06	1.657	11.4	43	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	21	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

STL wins 3-1

Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds

CLE 54-53 (3.93 RPG / 4.09 RA)

3 - 5

CIN 49-55 (4.15 RPG / 4.79 RA)

WINNER: CIN wins 5-3 TARGET: CLE 3 - 5 CIN (CIN) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	3	5
CIN	0	3	0	0	2	0	0	0	x	5	10

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff-16

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak5L

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff-10

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

CLE Season Quality

Record54-53

Win%0.505

Run Diff-18

RD/Game-0.168

CIN Season Quality

Record49-55

Win%0.471

Run Diff-66

RD/Game-0.635

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5167; margin adjustment: -0.217; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	LF	94	327	80	0.245	1	18	0.343	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.272	0.355	0.354	OK
José Ramírez	DH	75	281	67	0.238	10	35	0.336	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.224	0.310	0.353	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	86	326	93	0.285	11	50	0.353	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.252	0.329	0.402	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	74	276	66	0.239	9	32	0.336	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.215	0.309	0.349	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	102	357	97	0.272	9	49	0.329	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.242	0.284	0.375	OK
Kyle Manzardo	1B	94	292	62	0.212	11	32	0.299	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.219	0.285	0.385	OK
Gabriel Arias	3B	33	104	28	0.269	5	10	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.271	0.306	0.396	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	38	115	28	0.243	4	14	0.290	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.232	0.287	0.405	OK
Petey Halpin	CF	35	89	17	0.191	2	5	0.215	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.124	0.147	0.234	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	5	3	3	5	9	0.156

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Elly De La Cruz	SS	84	334	94	0.281	18	47	0.358	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.255	0.332	0.482	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	103	392	100	0.255	21	76	0.332	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.241	0.306	0.437	OK
JJ Bleday	RF	75	270	64	0.237	17	44	0.344	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.220	0.321	0.401	OK
Eugenio Suárez	3B	74	269	56	0.208	14	39	0.279	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.212	0.276	0.432	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	DH	71	219	56	0.256	11	32	0.329	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.176	0.245	0.342	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	78	250	61	0.244	8	28	0.320	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.245	0.308	0.408	OK
Dane Myers	CF	59	138	36	0.261	3	15	0.352	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0.000	0.163	0.251	0.253	OK
Edwin Arroyo	2B	38	123	30	0.244	0	4	0.288	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.226	0.260	0.297	OK
TJ Friedl	LF	61	198	34	0.172	3	11	0.260	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.177	0.264	0.254	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	10	5	5	2	7	0.303

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Slade Cecconi	Starter	20	100.4	4.75	1.494	7.4	82	5.0	9	5	5	0	5	94	5.0	5	5
Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	45	45.2	2.79	1.128	13.3	67	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	39	28.3	3.18	1.449	10.2	32	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	13	0.2	0	0
Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	39	34.4	1.83	0.930	10.5	40	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	21	1.0	1	0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Chase Burns	Starter	19	106.5	2.45	1.117	10.5	124	6.0	3	1	1	4	6	108	6.0	6	1
Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	21	19.4	5.57	1.289	9.7	21	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	23	1.0	1	2
Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	32	27.8	2.59	1.115	9.1	28	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	53	43.2	3.12	1.528	9.0	43	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

CIN wins 5-3

Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels

HOU 52-55 (4.57 RPG / 5.01 RA)

2 - 5

LAA 42-64 (4.28 RPG / 4.9 RA)

WINNER: LAA wins 5-2 TARGET: HOU 2 - 5 LAA (LAA) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	4
LAA	0	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	x	5	8

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.5

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff-1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs2.6

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff-12

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

HOU Season Quality

Record52-55

Win%0.486

Run Diff-47

RD/Game-0.439

LAA Season Quality

Record42-64

Win%0.396

Run Diff-65

RD/Game-0.613

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3086; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	58	226	72	0.319	11	30	0.373	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.321	0.361	0.559	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	104	377	123	0.326	34	77	0.435	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.298	0.405	0.558	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	99	361	92	0.255	14	57	0.348	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.263	0.330	0.451	OK
LaMonte Wade Jr.	RF	19	55	10	0.182	2	10	0.328	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.212	0.345	0.330	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	82	319	74	0.232	12	30	0.297	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.225	0.278	0.361	OK
Taylor Trammell	LF	46	126	30	0.238	4	13	0.289	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.160	0.204	0.291	OK
Christian Walker	1B	102	376	88	0.234	20	61	0.310	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.217	0.278	0.373	OK
Lucas Spence	CF	8	28	5	0.179	0	1	0.258	3	3	1	0	0	0	2	0.333	0.203	0.255	0.302	OK
Christian Vázquez	C	63	187	40	0.214	5	23	0.264	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.211	0.257	0.325	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	4	2	2	2	14	0.129

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	103	406	95	0.234	19	46	0.323	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.219	0.286	0.381	OK
Mike Trout	CF	87	312	77	0.247	18	40	0.398	4	2	1	0	0	2	0	0.500	0.284	0.410	0.447	OK
Nolan Schanuel	1B	85	318	89	0.280	6	36	0.355	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.259	0.334	0.348	OK
Jorge Soler	DH	82	302	62	0.205	12	47	0.291	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.198	0.264	0.360	OK
Vaughn Grissom	2B	62	219	55	0.251	6	40	0.316	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.237	0.295	0.385	OK
Josh Lowe	LF	60	184	38	0.207	8	22	0.254	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.212	0.264	0.357	OK
Jo Adell	RF	105	404	98	0.243	16	59	0.290	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.238	0.269	0.431	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	33	129	31	0.240	4	14	0.285	4	4	2	1	1	0	2	0.500	0.210	0.254	0.313	OK
Tyler Heineman	C	9	27	7	0.259	0	2	0.333	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.209	0.253	0.307	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	8	5	5	3	9	0.250

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tatsuya Imai	Starter	14	55.2	5.87	1.540	11.6	71	4.1	7	5	5	3	2	100	4.1	2	5
Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	21	19.3	0.93	0.777	15.4	33	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	15	1.0	3	0
Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	51	44.9	2.41	0.958	10.4	52	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	22	1.1	2	0
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	38	32.4	5.56	1.698	12.8	46	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	18	1.1	2	0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Walbert Urena	Starter	18	85.7	2.84	1.330	8.7	83	5.2	1	1	1	1	9	105	5.2	9	1
Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	43	44.8	4.02	1.295	13.9	69	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	19	1.0	2	1
Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	27	22.8	3.55	1.140	11.8	30	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	24	1.1	1	0
Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	38	39.0	4.85	1.436	10.4	45	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

LAA wins 5-2

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants

MIL 66-39 (5.1 RPG / 3.74 RA)

6 - 3

SF 45-61 (4.18 RPG / 4.67 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 6-3 TARGET: MIL 6 - 3 SF (MIL) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	3	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	6	10
SF	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	6

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs5.1

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff7

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

SF Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff9

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

MIL Season Quality

Record66-39

Win%0.629

Run Diff142

RD/Game1.352

SF Season Quality

Record45-61

Win%0.425

Run Diff-52

RD/Game-0.491

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.149; margin adjustment: -0.9026; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Christian Yelich	DH	66	257	60	0.233	7	35	0.323	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.238	0.315	0.418	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	69	290	82	0.283	13	40	0.341	5	4	2	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.259	0.310	0.416	OK
Brice Turang	2B	96	375	103	0.275	15	62	0.366	5	4	2	1	3	1	0	0.500	0.277	0.368	0.481	OK
William Contreras	C	96	372	101	0.272	10	56	0.335	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.244	0.306	0.361	OK
Jake Bauers	RF	92	314	82	0.261	17	58	0.365	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.273	0.369	0.430	OK
Andrew Vaughn	1B	58	167	52	0.311	4	28	0.384	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.288	0.355	0.531	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	87	287	76	0.265	7	41	0.350	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.243	0.330	0.405	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	29	94	27	0.287	2	12	0.352	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.296	0.356	0.471	OK
Joey Ortiz	3B	78	230	54	0.235	5	27	0.304	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.274	0.341	0.469	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	37	10	6	6	5	4	0.270

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Luis Arraez	2B	98	388	128	0.330	4	39	0.367	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.269	0.305	0.380	OK
Heliot Ramos	LF	66	256	65	0.254	9	31	0.289	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.209	0.241	0.353	OK
Bryce Eldridge	DH	63	217	56	0.258	10	23	0.360	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.216	0.322	0.385	OK
Rafael Devers	1B	104	393	98	0.249	21	59	0.321	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.232	0.306	0.470	OK
Casey Schmitt	3B	95	379	101	0.266	21	54	0.297	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.217	0.242	0.416	OK
Drew Gilbert	CF	75	211	50	0.237	4	21	0.302	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.238	0.292	0.346	OK
Willy Adames	SS	99	385	87	0.226	17	44	0.276	4	3	2	1	0	1	1	0.667	0.209	0.257	0.397	OK
Grant McCray	RF	3	5	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.100	0.114	0.160
Jesus Rodriguez	C	17	47	11	0.234	2	8	0.294	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.220	0.268	0.390	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	3	3	1	4	0.182

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brandon Sproat	Starter	19	82.7	5.33	1.451	9.9	91	5.0	4	3	3	1	2	86	5.0	2	3
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	40	39.1	2.07	0.946	11.3	49	1.2	2	0	0	0	0	7	1.2	0	0
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	42	38.4	2.58	1.146	9.6	41	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	49	54.4	3.64	1.544	13.6	82	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tyler Mahle	Starter	16	80.9	5.45	1.483	8.6	77	5.0	6	5	5	4	2	103	5.0	2	5
Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	41	36.2	4.48	1.409	12.2	49	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1
Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	34	25.9	3.13	1.583	14.6	42	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	31	45.6	2.96	1.228	6.9	35	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	25	1.1	0	0
Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	35	30.0	3.90	1.333	8.1	27	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	16	0.1	1	0
Sam Hentges	Middle Reliever	26	15.9	3.40	2.013	13.0	23	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	12	0.1	1	0

Game Summary

MIL wins 6-3

New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox

NYY 59-46 (4.65 RPG / 3.85 RA)

2 - 1

CHW 55-49 (4.82 RPG / 4.38 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 2-1 TARGET: NYY 2 - 1 CHW (NYY) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	3

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs2.5

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff-6

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed0.9

Run Diff1.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

NYY Season Quality

Record59-46

Win%0.562

Run Diff84

RD/Game0.800

CHW Season Quality

Record55-49

Win%0.529

Run Diff46

RD/Game0.442

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4073; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Max Schuemann	LF	25	59	13	0.220	2	6	0.352	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.143	0.246	0.286	OK
Ben Rice	DH	97	365	100	0.274	30	68	0.364	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.239	0.318	0.480	OK
Paul Goldschmidt	1B	73	266	69	0.259	16	43	0.312	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.248	0.296	0.439	OK
Jasson Domínguez	RF	42	160	37	0.231	6	14	0.263	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.227	0.252	0.398	OK
Anthony Volpe	SS	48	149	37	0.248	1	15	0.345	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.248	0.343	0.367	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	95	338	76	0.225	16	43	0.295	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.232	0.291	0.472	OK
José Caballero	3B	89	298	71	0.238	10	37	0.288	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.220	0.258	0.327	OK
Spencer Jones	CF	29	76	17	0.224	2	7	0.314	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.219	0.303	0.351	OK
Ali Sánchez	C	19	43	11	0.256	0	4	0.298	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.196	0.217	0.262	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	4	2	2	3	6	0.129

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Tristan Peters	CF	68	194	56	0.289	3	24	0.344	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.170	0.228	0.327	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	74	271	59	0.218	20	45	0.312	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.202	0.271	0.430	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	74	281	76	0.270	6	25	0.334	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.235	0.289	0.339	OK
Munetaka Murakami	IF	56	198	48	0.242	20	41	0.381	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.241	0.371	0.518	OK
Drew Romo	C	27	90	13	0.144	5	11	0.228	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.104	0.178	0.213	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	75	275	65	0.236	16	44	0.350	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.217	0.309	0.371	OK
Braden Montgomery	OF	12	42	11	0.262	1	5	0.311	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.239	0.291	0.424	OK
Sam Antonacci	SS	58	199	58	0.291	4	22	0.391	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.275	0.334	0.454	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	69	214	50	0.234	9	37	0.292	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.212	0.271	0.438	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	30	3	1	1	5	6	0.100

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Max Fried	Starter	11	65.5	3.02	0.977	7.8	57	6.0	1	0	0	3	5	102	6.0	5	0
David Bednar	Middle Reliever	41	42.1	2.57	1.116	10.5	49	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	48	31.1	3.47	1.833	15.9	55	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1
Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	52	42.2	1.71	1.327	13.2	62	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	21	1.0	0	0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Davis Martin	Starter	14	79.8	3.38	1.216	9.4	83	6.0	3	1	1	3	6	97	6.0	6	1
Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	1.48	1.311	11.8	8	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1	2.1	8.57	1.905	4.3	1	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	11	1.0	0	1
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	24	20.9	1.72	1.483	9.9	23	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 2-1

Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

PHI 57-50 (4.36 RPG / 4.48 RA)

4 - 3

MIA 53-54 (4.41 RPG / 4.38 RA)

WINNER: PHI wins 4-3 TARGET: PHI 4 - 3 MIA (PHI) Confidence: 57.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
PHI	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	4	8
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	7

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.000

Avg Runs2.7

Avg Allowed5.2

Run Diff-25

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak10L

PHI Season Quality

Record57-49

Win%0.538

Run Diff-11

RD/Game-0.104

MIA Season Quality

Record52-54

Win%0.491

Run Diff2

RD/Game0.019

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0519; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trea Turner	SS	100	418	103	0.246	14	41	0.294	5	5	2	0	0	0	1	0.400	0.240	0.284	0.401	OK
Kyle Schwarber	DH	100	379	95	0.251	32	61	0.360	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.245	0.339	0.442	OK
Bryce Harper	1B	104	370	93	0.251	21	61	0.357	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.219	0.322	0.401	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	99	365	105	0.288	16	47	0.329	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.231	0.280	0.370	OK
Alec Bohm	3B	100	375	83	0.221	13	56	0.282	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.245	0.290	0.402	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	99	349	88	0.252	8	46	0.308	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0.667	0.259	0.305	0.440	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	75	257	58	0.226	7	34	0.300	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.272	0.325	0.385	OK
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	RF	27	79	14	0.177	2	7	0.214	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.206	0.227	0.336	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	92	278	69	0.248	2	21	0.298	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.236	0.276	0.334	OK
TEAM TOTALS									44	38	8	4	4	4	8	0.211

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Otto Lopez	SS	102	406	133	0.328	9	47	0.363	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.241	0.287	0.373	OK
Kyle Stowers	1B	81	304	71	0.234	13	45	0.315	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.225	0.287	0.412	OK
Heriberto Hernández	LF	74	240	58	0.242	14	38	0.304	5	5	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.247	0.297	0.453	OK
Xavier Edwards	2B	105	388	112	0.289	6	37	0.369	5	5	3	0	0	0	0	0.600	0.231	0.307	0.335	OK
Liam Hicks	DH	94	328	91	0.277	14	60	0.357	5	3	1	0	0	2	1	0.333	0.219	0.298	0.339	OK
Griffin Conine	RF	37	104	27	0.260	7	16	0.347	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.155	0.249	0.310	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	100	344	67	0.195	5	25	0.315	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.197	0.300	0.282	OK
Javier Sanoja	3B	77	261	70	0.268	3	35	0.297	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.235	0.262	0.363	OK
Joe Mack	C	59	180	43	0.239	10	30	0.294	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.221	0.263	0.444	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	37	7	3	3	4	5	0.189

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zack Wheeler	Starter	16	98.6	2.19	0.892	10.7	117	6.1	2	0	0	3	5	99	6.1	5	0
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	36	34.3	0.79	0.816	13.9	53	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	42	34.9	3.09	1.404	11.3	44	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	44	33.1	7.07	1.813	13.9	51	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	22	1.0	0	1
Brian Keller	Reliever	1	3.0	3.00	0.667	9.0	3	0.0	2	2	2	1	0	24	0.0	0	2

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tyler Phillips	Starter	26	76.3	3.66	1.442	6.8	58	5.0	2	0	0	2	4	82	5.0	4	0
Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	34	29.7	7.58	1.549	12.7	42	2.0	1	1	1	1	0	32	2.0	0	1
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	43	39.2	3.21	1.148	11.7	51	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Cade Gibson	Middle Reliever	22	24.4	5.53	1.557	9.2	25	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0
Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	44	37.5	5.52	1.787	10.6	44	0.2	3	3	3	1	2	21	0.2	2	3

Game Summary

PHI wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)

Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers

SEA 52-55 (4.01 RPG / 3.93 RA)

3 - 6

TEX 54-52 (4.25 RPG / 4.44 RA)

WINNER: TEX wins 6-3 TARGET: SEA 3 - 6 TEX (TEX) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	5
TEX	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	3	x	6	10

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff2

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed5.9

Run Diff-9

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

SEA Season Quality

Record52-54

Win%0.491

Run Diff12

RD/Game0.113

TEX Season Quality

Record53-52

Win%0.505

Run Diff-25

RD/Game-0.238

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.33; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Cole Young	2B	106	384	98	0.255	13	48	0.312	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.242	0.281	0.376	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	94	374	95	0.254	15	44	0.315	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.235	0.281	0.384	OK
Dominic Canzone	DH	89	258	67	0.260	16	46	0.328	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.248	0.312	0.461	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	98	359	102	0.284	12	46	0.379	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.258	0.327	0.420	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	99	387	100	0.258	8	37	0.322	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.265	0.322	0.349	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	74	273	45	0.165	10	35	0.269	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.189	0.284	0.302	OK
Luke Raley	RF	89	257	59	0.230	15	39	0.284	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.230	0.262	0.396	OK
J.P. Crawford	3B	84	300	65	0.217	10	29	0.337	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.216	0.333	0.331	OK
Colt Emerson	SS	54	174	35	0.201	7	21	0.266	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.207	0.262	0.329	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	5	3	3	5	11	0.156

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Joc Pederson	DH	93	275	69	0.251	17	36	0.339	5	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.196	0.275	0.385	OK
Wyatt Langford	LF	53	214	62	0.290	12	29	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.268	0.305	0.496	OK
Ezequiel Duran	SS	94	329	89	0.271	11	55	0.322	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.180	0.238	0.347	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	99	380	102	0.268	10	39	0.335	4	2	1	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.276	0.329	0.449	OK
Jake Burger	1B	100	370	88	0.238	18	64	0.300	4	4	3	1	1	0	0	0.750	0.222	0.282	0.416	OK
Evan Carter	CF	85	243	47	0.193	8	27	0.306	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.151	0.267	0.263	OK
Nicky Lopez	2B	47	139	45	0.324	1	17	0.356	4	4	3	1	1	0	0	0.750	0.190	0.220	0.239	OK
Josh Smith	3B	41	128	28	0.219	1	8	0.299	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.211	0.277	0.315	OK
Elias Díaz	C	28	89	23	0.258	2	11	0.264	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.201	0.217	0.330	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	10	6	6	2	7	0.303

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
George Kirby	Starter	19	113.9	3.63	1.308	8.2	104	6.1	7	3	3	1	5	114	6.1	5	3
Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	39	35.7	3.53	1.176	14.6	58	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	13	0.2	0	0
José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	46	37.1	3.15	1.509	8.5	35	1.0	3	3	3	1	2	26	1.0	2	3

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kumar Rocker	Starter	19	93.2	4.25	1.352	8.3	86	5.0	3	2	2	5	4	92	5.0	4	2
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	37	45.2	1.19	0.597	9.8	49	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	19	1.1	0	0
Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	32	34.0	3.97	1.412	10.9	41	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	18	1.0	2	0
Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	39	29.5	7.32	1.627	11.0	36	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	16	1.0	3	0
Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	47	38.7	3.72	1.550	9.1	39	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	15	0.2	2	1

Game Summary

TEX wins 6-3

Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals

TOR 49-58 (3.92 RPG / 4.49 RA)

2 - 5

WAS 54-53 (5.48 RPG / 5.21 RA)

WINNER: WAS wins 5-2 TARGET: TOR 2 - 5 WAS (WAS) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	5
WAS	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	1	x	5	7

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs2.4

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff-27

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs7.1

Avg Allowed5.0

Run Diff21

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

TOR Season Quality

Record48-58

Win%0.453

Run Diff-62

RD/Game-0.585

WAS Season Quality

Record54-52

Win%0.509

Run Diff30

RD/Game0.283

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9528; margin adjustment: 0.4002; applied: True

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Nathan Lukes	RF	69	228	65	0.285	5	18	0.336	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.250	0.287	0.369	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	100	375	99	0.264	6	44	0.340	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.263	0.331	0.351	OK
Alejandro Kirk	C	33	113	26	0.230	3	12	0.302	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.254	0.320	0.387	OK
George Springer	DH	75	292	68	0.233	11	30	0.314	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.240	0.309	0.403	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	86	311	77	0.248	7	25	0.309	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.258	0.309	0.371	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	102	375	84	0.224	23	65	0.304	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	0.667	0.198	0.263	0.378	OK
Ernie Clement	SS	103	397	118	0.297	8	33	0.322	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.260	0.283	0.377	OK
Davis Schneider	LF	45	104	15	0.144	3	12	0.262	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.155	0.261	0.275	OK
Luis Urías	2B	15	36	8	0.222	2	3	0.282	3	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.198	0.254	0.347	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	5	2	2	2	8	0.156

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	DH	106	409	111	0.271	30	72	0.396	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.255	0.362	0.523	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	98	331	92	0.278	21	70	0.310	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.178	0.218	0.367	OK
CJ Abrams	SS	102	384	114	0.297	27	82	0.367	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.343	0.393	0.696	OK
Keibert Ruiz	C	66	217	59	0.272	7	35	0.300	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.257	0.285	0.439	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	104	401	98	0.244	11	51	0.296	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.233	0.278	0.399	OK
Dylan Crews	RF	54	202	46	0.228	8	23	0.310	4	4	1	1	4	0	0	0.250	0.265	0.339	0.435	OK
Jacob Young	CF	85	293	69	0.235	9	35	0.287	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.272	0.311	0.432	OK
Brady House	3B	44	168	39	0.232	7	26	0.286	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.237	0.290	0.425	OK
Nasim Nuñez	2B	92	296	73	0.247	1	30	0.331	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.246	0.332	0.303	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	7	5	5	3	4	0.226

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Dylan Cease	Starter	19	111.0	2.51	1.108	13.5	167	6.2	5	3	3	3	4	111	6.2	4	3
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	47	48.5	1.11	1.010	13.0	70	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	48	43.4	1.66	1.175	5.4	26	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	12	0.1	0	1
Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	47	39.1	4.83	1.611	15.4	67	0.0	1	1	1	0	0	2	0.0	0	1

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andrew Alvarez	Starter	14	51.0	4.41	1.569	9.7	55	4.0	4	2	2	1	3	74	4.0	3	2
Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	32	28.4	3.49	1.338	10.5	33	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	32	26.4	4.09	1.364	9.5	28	1.2	0	0	0	1	2	25	1.2	2	0
Tom Cosgrove	Middle Reliever	6	4.6	1.96	1.739	7.8	4	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Riley Cornelio	Middle Reliever	9	17.4	6.21	1.954	8.8	17	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	20	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

WAS wins 5-2

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates

ARI Recent Form

PIT Recent Form

ARI Season Quality

PIT Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets

ATL Recent Form

NYM Recent Form

ATL Season Quality

NYM Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers

BAL Recent Form

DET Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

DET Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics

BOS Recent Form

OAK Recent Form

BOS Season Quality

OAK Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

CHC Recent Form

STL Recent Form

CHC Season Quality

STL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds

CLE Recent Form

CIN Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

CIN Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels

HOU Recent Form

LAA Recent Form

HOU Season Quality

LAA Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants