MLB Predictions — July 23, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
ARI @ STL	4 - 2	4 - 2	ARI	ARI	ARI wins 4-2	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
KC @ DET	2 - 5	2 - 5	DET	DET	DET wins 5-2	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIN @ CLE	4 - 3	4 - 3	MIN	MIN	MIN wins 4-3	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ ATL	2 - 5	2 - 5	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 5-2	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ TOR	5 - 3	5 - 3	TB	TB	TB wins 5-3	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals

ARI 53-49 (4.47 RPG / 4.5 RA)

4 - 2

STL 52-49 (4.44 RPG / 4.44 RA)

WINNER: ARI wins 4-2 TARGET: ARI 4 - 2 STL (ARI) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	4	5
STL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	8

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.900

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed0.0

Run Diff37.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

STL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.0

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff-7.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

ARI Season Quality

Record53-49

Win%0.520

Run Diff-3

RD/Game-0.029

STL Season Quality

Record52-49

Win%0.515

Run Diff0

RD/Game0.000

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0223; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ryan Waldschmidt	CF	32	112	29	0.259	0	8	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.158	0.212	0.287	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	75	257	61	0.237	4	27	0.354	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.225	0.348	0.334	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	73	297	78	0.263	12	46	0.315	4	3	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.279	0.331	0.462	OK
Ildemaro Vargas	1B	62	230	60	0.261	7	37	0.299	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.202	0.257	0.314	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	51	174	48	0.276	6	25	0.358	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.283	0.359	0.467	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	73	247	59	0.239	8	32	0.315	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.235	0.295	0.347	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	75	278	79	0.284	13	42	0.372	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.283	0.361	0.548	OK
Max Kepler	LF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.248	0.312	0.407
Tim Tawa	LF	14	36	5	0.139	0	2	0.238	3	2	1	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.211	0.302	0.327	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	5	4	4	3	11	0.156

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	94	372	96	0.258	15	39	0.352	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.226	0.293	0.364	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	98	376	109	0.290	21	73	0.353	5	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.244	0.304	0.413	OK
Alec Burleson	DH	99	379	105	0.277	15	68	0.339	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0.400	0.270	0.323	0.407	OK
Lars Nootbaar	LF	37	121	30	0.248	3	12	0.352	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.226	0.333	0.359	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	90	330	79	0.239	4	42	0.311	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.209	0.282	0.291	OK
José Fermín	3B	63	172	45	0.262	4	20	0.319	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.258	0.321	0.369	OK
Nathan Church	CF	77	254	58	0.228	8	28	0.268	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.200	0.234	0.310	OK
Blaze Jordan	1B	27	91	23	0.253	1	18	0.265	4	2	0	0	0	2	2	0.000	0.249	0.273	0.388	OK
Jimmy Crooks	C	27	71	12	0.169	3	9	0.253	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.199	0.269	0.361	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	35	8	2	2	3	9	0.229

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	15	86.7	2.49	1.257	6.7	65	6.2	6	0	0	1	7	106	6.2	7	0
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1	1.0	9.00	2.000	0.0	0	0.1	2	2	2	0	1	21	0.1	1	2
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	2	2.1	0.00	0.476	8.6	2	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	11	1.0	1	0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael McGreevy	Starter	19	106.6	2.95	1.116	6.0	71	5.2	1	2	2	2	8	102	5.2	8	2
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	42	39.8	3.84	1.281	9.9	44	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.1	1	0
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	45	38.5	3.74	1.221	9.4	40	1.0	3	1	1	1	1	26	1.0	1	1
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	42	31.8	5.38	1.761	11.6	41	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1

Game Summary

ARI wins 4-2

Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers

KC 43-60 (4.25 RPG / 5.18 RA)

2 - 5

DET 48-54 (4.25 RPG / 3.97 RA)

WINNER: DET wins 5-2 TARGET: KC 2 - 5 DET (DET) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	3
DET	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	x	5	9

KC Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed5.4

Run Diff-20.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak

DET Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff5.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

KC Season Quality

Record43-60

Win%0.417

Run Diff-96

RD/Game-0.932

DET Season Quality

Record47-54

Win%0.465

Run Diff24

RD/Game0.238

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.2415; margin adjustment: 0.5214; applied: True

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	C	93	332	80	0.241	14	52	0.309	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.221	0.289	0.403	OK
Lane Thomas	CF	83	254	61	0.240	9	35	0.333	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.333	0.249	0.327	0.437	OK
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	74	273	62	0.227	6	33	0.317	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.235	0.320	0.341	OK
Salvador Perez	DH	94	365	78	0.214	14	43	0.261	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.214	0.245	0.425	OK
Michael Massey	2B	80	248	67	0.270	7	33	0.308	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.264	0.306	0.407	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	89	283	69	0.244	5	32	0.345	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.253	0.335	0.386	OK
Josh Rojas	3B	18	45	11	0.244	1	5	0.244	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.159	0.168	0.256	OK
Nick Loftin	RF	63	195	49	0.251	4	32	0.329	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.247	0.307	0.378	OK
Andrew Velazquez	SS	1	3	1	0.333	0	0	0.333	3	3	1	1	2	0	2	0.333	0.238	0.248	0.344	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	30	3	2	2	4	13	0.100

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kevin McGonigle	SS	98	368	104	0.283	9	35	0.392	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.265	0.361	0.434	OK
Gleyber Torres	2B	45	164	46	0.280	4	18	0.397	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.260	0.369	0.375	OK
Colt Keith	3B	91	264	66	0.250	8	23	0.297	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.275	0.309	0.420	OK
Riley Greene	DH	100	361	104	0.288	15	50	0.379	4	2	1	1	0	2	0	0.500	0.255	0.343	0.481	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	92	343	94	0.274	22	65	0.337	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.288	0.329	0.575	OK
Kerry Carpenter	RF	78	222	46	0.207	13	36	0.278	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.194	0.247	0.342	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	100	344	71	0.206	19	49	0.302	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.223	0.304	0.481	OK
Zach McKinstry	LF	74	232	45	0.194	4	20	0.270	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.200	0.272	0.323	OK
James Outman	CF	25	78	12	0.154	3	10	0.195	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.099	0.141	0.185	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	9	5	5	3	6	0.273

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Randy Dobnak	Starter	3	13.3	2.03	1.579	4.7	7	4.1	2	2	2	1	4	85	4.1	4	2
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	40	37.5	6.72	1.653	9.8	41	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0
Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	42	37.9	2.37	1.029	8.1	34	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	25	1.2	1	0
Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	39	36.0	5.00	1.667	6.8	27	1.0	5	3	3	1	1	15	1.0	1	3

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Troy Melton	Starter	9	53.6	1.85	0.896	8.4	50	6.0	1	0	0	2	8	92	6.0	8	0
Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	29	24.8	3.63	1.290	10.9	30	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.0	2	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	42	40.1	2.24	1.521	7.9	35	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	19	1.0	2	2
Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	42	37.1	3.64	1.590	9.0	37	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	21	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

DET wins 5-2

Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians

MIN 51-53 (4.79 RPG / 5.08 RA)

4 - 3

CLE 54-50 (4.01 RPG / 4.07 RA)

WINNER: MIN wins 4-3 TARGET: MIN 4 - 3 CLE (MIN) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	4	5
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	3	9

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff-16.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.5

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff6.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

MIN Season Quality

Record50-53

Win%0.485

Run Diff-32

RD/Game-0.311

CLE Season Quality

Record54-49

Win%0.524

Run Diff-4

RD/Game-0.039

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3301; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Brooks Lee	3B	95	362	92	0.254	15	55	0.309	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.256	0.303	0.425	OK
Byron Buxton	CF	77	313	86	0.275	25	45	0.330	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.257	0.302	0.461	OK
Ryan Jeffers	C	41	143	41	0.287	9	32	0.391	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.258	0.355	0.523	OK
Josh Bell	DH	100	367	92	0.251	13	62	0.308	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.248	0.298	0.395	OK
Kody Clemens	2B	88	325	78	0.240	18	48	0.297	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.148	0.196	0.339	OK
Royce Lewis	1B	68	246	53	0.215	10	30	0.292	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.217	0.291	0.372	OK
Austin Martin	LF	77	241	58	0.241	2	20	0.337	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.213	0.308	0.302	OK
Luke Keaschall	RF	95	322	84	0.261	4	28	0.350	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.262	0.343	0.350	OK
Ryan Kreidler	SS	53	148	35	0.236	5	24	0.289	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.197	0.247	0.315	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	5	4	4	3	6	0.156

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	LF	92	317	78	0.246	1	18	0.347	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.296	0.381	0.377	OK
José Ramírez	3B	72	270	66	0.244	10	35	0.341	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.247	0.326	0.389	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	84	321	93	0.290	11	50	0.350	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.293	0.349	0.466	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	99	344	95	0.276	9	48	0.335	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.273	0.314	0.422	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	71	265	65	0.245	9	33	0.343	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.256	0.350	0.459	OK
Rhys Hoskins	DH	76	227	41	0.181	11	32	0.305	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.208	0.311	0.459	OK
Kyle Manzardo	1B	92	287	62	0.216	11	32	0.304	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.239	0.307	0.418	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	37	112	27	0.241	3	13	0.283	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.245	0.293	0.385	OK
Petey Halpin	CF	31	78	17	0.218	2	5	0.235	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.161	0.185	0.322	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	36	9	3	3	0	9	0.250

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Taj Bradley	Starter	19	105.8	3.91	1.276	10.5	124	6.0	3	1	1	0	7	96	6.0	7	1
Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	32	24.6	2.20	1.179	9.9	27	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	37	41.7	3.88	1.463	10.6	49	1.1	3	1	1	0	0	7	1.1	0	1
Tommy Nance	Middle Reliever	3	3.1	5.81	2.581	14.5	5	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	0.2	1	0

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gavin Williams	Starter	20	117.7	4.05	1.164	11.1	145	5.2	4	3	3	2	3	105	5.2	3	3
Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	44	44.0	2.86	1.114	13.5	66	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	37	28.1	2.56	1.352	9.9	31	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	37	32.3	1.95	0.960	11.1	40	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	16	1.0	2	1

Game Summary

MIN wins 4-3

San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves

SD 50-53 (4.14 RPG / 4.43 RA)

2 - 5

ATL 60-43 (4.95 RPG / 3.97 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 5-2 TARGET: SD 2 - 5 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	6
ATL	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	x	5	7

SD Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs5.2

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff5.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.6

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff16.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SD Season Quality

Record50-52

Win%0.490

Run Diff-29

RD/Game-0.284

ATL Season Quality

Record59-43

Win%0.578

Run Diff100

RD/Game0.980

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.3971; margin adjustment: 0.5868; applied: True

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	100	395	113	0.286	8	45	0.353	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.268	0.341	0.484	OK
Luis Rengifo	LF	5	17	7	0.412	1	3	0.474	5	5	3	1	2	0	0	0.600	0.177	0.255	0.270	OK
Manny Machado	3B	99	362	73	0.202	22	59	0.293	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.221	0.311	0.467	OK
Ty France	1B	70	232	64	0.276	15	41	0.329	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.275	0.313	0.566	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	97	338	75	0.222	9	38	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.209	0.305	0.317	OK
Gavin Sheets	DH	95	295	64	0.217	14	41	0.319	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.202	0.304	0.332	OK
Freddy Fermin	C	49	145	23	0.159	3	11	0.248	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.195	0.270	0.318	OK
Jase Bowen	CF	20	49	7	0.143	0	3	0.192	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	0.500	0.178	0.212	0.275	OK
Jake Cronenworth	2B	50	162	33	0.204	3	12	0.291	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.219	0.289	0.314	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	33	6	2	2	5	7	0.182

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drake Baldwin	C	79	303	84	0.277	19	55	0.370	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.307	0.389	0.515	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	102	394	103	0.261	15	55	0.314	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.229	0.281	0.377	OK
Matt Olson	1B	102	394	106	0.269	26	60	0.346	4	3	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.260	0.342	0.460	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	95	362	108	0.298	18	60	0.325	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.273	0.296	0.486	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	98	368	98	0.266	10	54	0.318	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.248	0.294	0.390	OK
Austin Riley	3B	102	367	79	0.215	12	48	0.294	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.251	0.311	0.442	OK
Dominic Smith	DH	76	217	57	0.263	6	34	0.306	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.250	0.314	0.357	OK
Mike Yastrzemski	RF	84	235	53	0.226	6	27	0.309	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.237	0.316	0.426	OK
Jim Jarvis	SS	16	52	16	0.308	1	7	0.345	3	2	2	1	0	1	0	1.000	0.273	0.304	0.468	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	30	7	5	5	2	5	0.233

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kyle Hart	Starter	25	31.5	6.29	1.270	8.6	30	4.2	6	4	4	1	4	81	4.2	4	4
Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	40	39.1	0.92	0.921	18.0	78	2.1	0	0	0	1	0	26	2.1	0	0
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	47	47.0	3.83	1.277	11.7	61	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	20	1.0	1	1

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Chris Sale	Starter	18	103.6	2.08	1.071	10.7	123	6.0	4	1	1	2	6	108	6.0	6	1
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	34	33.6	2.68	1.101	10.7	40	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	47	39.6	2.05	0.833	13.0	57	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	27	1.1	0	0
Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	40	30.8	4.68	1.429	10.5	36	0.2	1	1	1	2	0	19	0.2	0	1

Game Summary

ATL wins 5-2

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays

TB 59-43 (4.5 RPG / 4.21 RA)

5 - 3

TOR 47-56 (3.93 RPG / 4.52 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 5-3 TARGET: TB 5 - 3 TOR (TB) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	3	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	12
TOR	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	3	5

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff5.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed5.2

Run Diff-16.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

TB Season Quality

Record59-42

Win%0.584

Run Diff32

RD/Game0.317

TOR Season Quality

Record46-56

Win%0.451

Run Diff-63

RD/Game-0.618

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.1342; margin adjustment: -0.4764; applied: True

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	97	377	116	0.308	14	60	0.383	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.253	0.315	0.394	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	100	367	105	0.286	14	65	0.382	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.257	0.337	0.392	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	101	383	111	0.290	29	62	0.381	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.303	0.393	0.505	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	33	104	24	0.231	8	17	0.314	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.255	0.336	0.518	OK
Jonny DeLuca	CF	55	184	48	0.261	6	31	0.295	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.254	0.284	0.434	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	91	351	102	0.291	0	19	0.324	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.220	0.264	0.311	OK
Ben Williamson	SS	69	215	55	0.256	2	23	0.319	4	3	2	1	0	1	1	0.667	0.267	0.322	0.357	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	71	210	49	0.233	3	27	0.331	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.147	0.254	0.247	OK
Hunter Feduccia	C	51	128	29	0.227	2	10	0.296	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.152	0.222	0.257	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	39	12	5	5	3	7	0.308

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yohendrick Pinango	RF	50	152	41	0.270	5	19	0.311	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.240	0.280	0.367	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	96	359	92	0.256	6	41	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.223	0.294	0.342	OK
Ernie Clement	SS	99	381	113	0.297	8	32	0.321	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.255	0.282	0.364	OK
George Springer	DH	71	276	62	0.225	10	26	0.306	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.231	0.297	0.392	OK
Alejandro Kirk	C	30	101	22	0.218	3	11	0.292	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.239	0.317	0.390	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	98	358	81	0.226	22	62	0.309	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.187	0.263	0.353	OK
Luis Urías	2B	13	30	8	0.267	2	3	0.333	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.224	0.288	0.388	OK
Myles Straw	CF	72	158	35	0.222	3	15	0.269	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.171	0.218	0.243	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	83	300	71	0.237	7	25	0.299	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.211	0.265	0.332	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	32	5	3	3	0	7	0.156

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Casey Legumina	Starter	24	25.7	3.50	1.284	7.0	20	5.0	2	1	1	0	4	70	5.0	4	1
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	40	37.4	1.68	0.856	10.1	42	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	43	40.9	2.64	1.027	7.7	35	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	33	26.2	4.12	1.450	13.4	39	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Cam Booser	Middle Reliever	19	18.1	1.99	0.773	12.9	26	0.2	2	2	2	0	0	15	0.2	0	2

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shane Bieber	Starter	5	22.5	6.00	1.822	7.6	19	4.2	8	5	5	2	4	91	4.2	4	5
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	46	47.5	1.14	1.032	12.9	68	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	47	42.4	1.70	1.203	5.3	25	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	46	38.1	4.96	1.601	15.8	67	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	16	1.0	0	0
Braydon Fisher	Middle Reliever	48	43.2	4.38	1.389	10.6	51	1.0	3	0	0	0	1	6	1.0	1	0
Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever	51	30.2	4.77	1.788	14.0	47	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	15	0.1	0	0
Spencer Miles	Reliever	28	62.3	3.61	1.204	9.4	65	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

TB wins 5-3

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals

ARI Recent Form

STL Recent Form

ARI Season Quality

STL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers

KC Recent Form

DET Recent Form

KC Season Quality

DET Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians

MIN Recent Form

CLE Recent Form

MIN Season Quality

CLE Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves

SD Recent Form

ATL Recent Form

SD Season Quality

ATL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays

TB Recent Form

TOR Recent Form

TB Season Quality

TOR Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary