MLB Predictions — July 22, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
BAL @ BOS	2 - 4	2 - 4	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 4-2	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BAL @ BOS	2 - 5	2 - 5	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 5-2	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHW @ TEX	5 - 3	5 - 3	CHW	CHW	CHW wins 5-3	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CIN @ SEA	2 - 3	2 - 3	SEA	SEA	SEA wins 3-2	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
DET @ CHC	4 - 3	4 - 3	DET	DET	DET wins 4-3	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ PHI	6 - 1	6 - 1	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 6-1	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIA @ HOU	3 - 2	3 - 2	MIA	MIA	MIA wins 3-2	62%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIN @ CLE	3 - 2	3 - 2	MIN	MIN	MIN wins 3-2	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ MIL	2 - 4	2 - 4	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 4-2	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
OAK @ ARI	3 - 5	3 - 5	ARI	ARI	ARI wins 5-3	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ NYY	4 - 5	4 - 5	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 5-4	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ NYY	4 - 5	4 - 5	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 5-4	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ ATL	2 - 4	2 - 4	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 4-2	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SF @ KC	6 - 2	6 - 2	SF	SF	SF wins 6-2	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
STL @ LAA	5 - 4	5 - 4	STL	STL	STL wins 5-4	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ TOR	4 - 3	4 - 3	TB	TB	TB wins 4-3	63%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
WAS @ COL	5 - 2	5 - 2	WAS	WAS	WAS wins 5-2	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

BAL 49-53 (4.58 RPG / 4.75 RA)

2 - 4

BOS 52-48 (4.25 RPG / 3.76 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 4-2 TARGET: BAL 2 - 4 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	5
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	x	4	8

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff11.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed2.0

Run Diff30.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

BAL Season Quality

Record49-52

Win%0.485

Run Diff-14

RD/Game-0.139

BOS Season Quality

Record51-48

Win%0.515

Run Diff46

RD/Game0.465

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6483; margin adjustment: 0.2723; applied: True

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Taylor Ward	LF	98	365	92	0.252	7	26	0.387	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.219	0.358	0.370	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	99	368	92	0.250	21	66	0.349	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.216	0.312	0.383	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	98	407	91	0.224	16	43	0.292	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.228	0.275	0.374	OK
Tyler O'Neill	RF	58	158	33	0.209	6	15	0.302	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.251	0.322	0.448	OK
Coby Mayo	DH	73	231	46	0.199	13	35	0.268	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.225	0.277	0.457	OK
Leody Taveras	CF	81	259	62	0.239	4	37	0.315	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.158	0.243	0.288	OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	3B	2	8	3	0.375	1	2	0.375	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.244	0.253	0.391	OK
Jackson Holliday	2B	46	126	26	0.206	5	15	0.306	4	3	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.211	0.323	0.331	OK
Sam Huff	C	10	29	4	0.138	0	1	0.167	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.182	0.216	0.307	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	31	5	2	2	4	8	0.161

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Masataka Yoshida	DH	62	191	51	0.267	4	18	0.332	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.180	0.237	0.325	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	93	363	102	0.281	8	42	0.326	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.260	0.290	0.403	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	97	371	99	0.267	15	50	0.339	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.272	0.341	0.567	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	90	325	94	0.289	22	66	0.383	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.283	0.358	0.567	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	90	305	72	0.236	10	42	0.299	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.265	0.309	0.433	OK
Romy Gonzalez	2B	14	49	9	0.184	1	6	0.273	4	4	1	1	3	0	0	0.250	0.200	0.262	0.336	OK
Jarren Duran	LF	92	356	68	0.191	13	49	0.254	3	3	2	1	0	0	1	0.667	0.189	0.249	0.300	OK
Connor Wong	C	42	119	33	0.277	1	15	0.374	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.157	0.252	0.246	OK
Tsung-Che Cheng	SS	12	36	10	0.278	0	5	0.341	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.243	0.316	0.327	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	32	8	4	4	1	11	0.250

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Dean Kremer	Starter	5	26.0	4.15	1.115	10.0	29	5.1	7	3	3	0	8	100	5.1	8	3
Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	31	24.2	4.46	1.446	8.9	24	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	24	1.2	1	1
Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever	38	44.5	3.24	1.101	10.3	51	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	20	1.0	2	0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jake Bennett	Starter	9	52.5	2.40	0.895	6.5	38	6.1	0	0	0	2	5	92	6.1	5	0
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	32	31.2	1.15	1.122	11.5	40	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	21	1.0	0	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	37	35.3	2.04	0.907	9.9	39	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	19	1.0	2	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	27	18.9	6.67	1.852	15.2	32	0.2	3	2	2	0	1	17	0.2	1	2

Game Summary

BOS wins 4-2

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

BAL 49-53 (4.58 RPG / 4.75 RA)

2 - 5

BOS 52-48 (4.25 RPG / 3.76 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 5-2 TARGET: BAL 2 - 5 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	5
BOS	0	1	0	0	0	4	0	0	x	5	5

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff11.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed2.0

Run Diff30.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

BAL Season Quality

Record49-52

Win%0.485

Run Diff-14

RD/Game-0.139

BOS Season Quality

Record51-48

Win%0.515

Run Diff46

RD/Game0.465

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6483; margin adjustment: 0.2723; applied: True

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Taylor Ward	LF	98	365	92	0.252	7	26	0.387	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.220	0.358	0.370	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	99	368	92	0.250	21	66	0.349	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.216	0.312	0.383	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	98	407	91	0.224	16	43	0.292	5	4	3	1	1	1	0	0.750	0.229	0.275	0.375	OK
Tyler O'Neill	RF	58	158	33	0.209	6	15	0.302	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.251	0.322	0.449	OK
Coby Mayo	DH	73	231	46	0.199	13	35	0.268	4	3	1	1	1	1	2	0.333	0.225	0.277	0.457	OK
Leody Taveras	CF	81	259	62	0.239	4	37	0.315	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.158	0.243	0.288	OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	3B	2	8	3	0.375	1	2	0.375	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.245	0.253	0.391	OK
Jackson Holliday	2B	46	126	26	0.206	5	15	0.306	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.211	0.323	0.331	OK
Sam Huff	C	10	29	4	0.138	0	1	0.167	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.182	0.216	0.307	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	32	5	2	2	6	6	0.156

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Masataka Yoshida	DH	62	191	51	0.267	4	18	0.332	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.181	0.238	0.325	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	93	363	102	0.281	8	42	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.260	0.291	0.403	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	97	371	99	0.267	15	50	0.339	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.273	0.341	0.568	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	90	325	94	0.289	22	66	0.383	3	3	1	1	1	0	2	0.333	0.283	0.358	0.567	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	90	305	72	0.236	10	42	0.299	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.265	0.309	0.433	OK
Romy Gonzalez	2B	14	49	9	0.184	1	6	0.273	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.200	0.262	0.336	OK
Jarren Duran	LF	92	356	68	0.191	13	49	0.254	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.189	0.249	0.300	OK
Connor Wong	C	42	119	33	0.277	1	15	0.374	3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.157	0.252	0.246	OK
Tsung-Che Cheng	SS	12	36	10	0.278	0	5	0.341	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.243	0.316	0.328	OK
TEAM TOTALS									30	29	5	5	5	1	6	0.172

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kyle Bradish	Starter	19	105.0	3.69	1.381	9.1	106	6.1	5	4	4	1	5	99	6.1	5	4
Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	31	24.2	4.46	1.446	8.9	24	0.0	0	1	1	0	0	12	0.0	0	1
Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever	38	44.5	3.24	1.101	10.3	51	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.2	1	0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eduardo Rivera	Starter	3	8.4	3.21	1.071	9.6	9	3.0	3	1	1	4	4	75	3.0	4	1
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	32	31.2	1.15	1.122	11.5	40	2.0	1	1	1	1	1	43	2.0	1	1
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	37	35.3	2.04	0.907	9.9	39	2.0	1	0	0	1	1	32	2.0	1	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	27	18.9	6.67	1.852	15.2	32	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	25	2.0	0	0

Game Summary

BOS wins 5-2

Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers

CHW 53-47 (4.79 RPG / 4.37 RA)

5 - 3

TEX 51-50 (4.21 RPG / 4.49 RA)

WINNER: CHW wins 5-3 TARGET: CHW 5 - 3 TEX (CHW) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	5	3
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3	10

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.100

Avg Runs0.3

Avg Allowed2.1

Run Diff-18.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed7.1

Run Diff-24.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

CHW Season Quality

Record53-46

Win%0.535

Run Diff52

RD/Game0.525

TEX Season Quality

Record50-50

Win%0.500

Run Diff-38

RD/Game-0.380

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9583; margin adjustment: -0.4025; applied: True

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Tristan Peters	CF	68	194	56	0.289	3	24	0.344	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.169	0.228	0.327	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	74	271	59	0.218	20	45	0.312	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.209	0.279	0.446	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	74	281	76	0.270	6	25	0.334	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.243	0.298	0.351	OK
Munetaka Murakami	IF	56	198	48	0.242	20	41	0.381	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.248	0.378	0.534	OK
Drew Romo	C	27	90	13	0.144	5	11	0.228	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.104	0.179	0.215	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	75	275	65	0.236	16	44	0.350	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.222	0.315	0.381	OK
Braden Montgomery	OF	12	42	11	0.262	1	5	0.311	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.243	0.296	0.431	OK
Sam Antonacci	SS	58	199	58	0.291	4	22	0.391	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.000	0.285	0.344	0.472	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	69	214	50	0.234	9	37	0.292	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.220	0.279	0.456	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	29	3	5	5	4	7	0.103

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Wyatt Langford	DH	49	199	57	0.286	11	27	0.330	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.274	0.309	0.495	OK
Justin Foscue	2B	47	117	32	0.274	7	19	0.323	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.159	0.209	0.302	OK
Jake Burger	1B	97	360	86	0.239	17	61	0.299	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.225	0.273	0.396	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	95	365	98	0.268	10	39	0.336	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.277	0.333	0.470	OK
Ezequiel Duran	3B	90	314	84	0.268	10	51	0.323	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.159	0.228	0.308	OK
Cameron Cauley	CF	13	30	8	0.267	0	0	0.353	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.254	0.337	0.439	OK
Elias Díaz	C	25	78	21	0.269	2	11	0.275	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.217	0.234	0.362	OK
Alejandro Osuna	LF	61	170	45	0.265	1	21	0.356	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.276	0.342	0.353	OK
Nicky Lopez	SS	43	127	42	0.331	1	14	0.361	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.187	0.212	0.242	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	37	10	3	3	2	6	0.270

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Davis Martin	Starter	14	79.8	3.38	1.216	9.4	83	6.0	2	0	0	1	5	94	6.0	5	0
Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	1.48	1.311	11.8	8	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1	2.1	8.57	1.905	4.3	1	1.0	4	2	2	1	0	23	1.0	0	2
Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	2	1.1	16.36	3.636	0.0	0	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	22	1.0	0	1

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tyler Alexander	Starter	44	36.4	3.21	1.511	9.4	38	5.0	3	3	3	3	6	84	5.0	6	3
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	35	43.2	1.04	0.602	9.8	47	2.0	1	1	1	1	1	28	2.0	1	1
Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	29	31.0	4.06	1.419	11.0	38	2.0	1	1	1	0	0	28	2.0	0	1

Game Summary

CHW wins 5-3

Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners

CIN 47-54 (4.19 RPG / 4.81 RA)

2 - 3

SEA 51-52 (4.03 RPG / 3.86 RA)

WINNER: SEA wins 3-2 TARGET: CIN 2 - 3 SEA (SEA) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	5
SEA	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	x	3	10

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.5

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff2.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.0

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff-11.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

CIN Season Quality

Record45-54

Win%0.455

Run Diff-67

RD/Game-0.677

SEA Season Quality

Record51-50

Win%0.505

Run Diff21

RD/Game0.208

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9603; margin adjustment: 0.4033; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Elly De La Cruz	SS	80	318	90	0.283	17	46	0.358	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.270	0.342	0.522	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	99	378	95	0.251	20	71	0.331	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.217	0.290	0.423	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	71	255	61	0.239	16	43	0.344	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.226	0.322	0.406	OK
Spencer Steer	RF	93	329	81	0.246	16	40	0.324	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.244	0.302	0.439	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	DH	68	205	51	0.249	11	30	0.328	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.157	0.232	0.353	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	74	238	58	0.244	8	27	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.256	0.323	0.448	OK
Dane Myers	CF	56	125	33	0.264	3	14	0.363	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.155	0.267	0.258	OK
Edwin Arroyo	2B	34	111	27	0.243	0	4	0.286	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.224	0.254	0.303	OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3B	41	133	19	0.143	2	5	0.197	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.165	0.208	0.243	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	5	2	2	2	8	0.156

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Cole Young	2B	102	367	92	0.251	13	48	0.310	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.233	0.278	0.417	OK
Julio Rodríguez	DH	90	357	92	0.258	15	43	0.319	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.264	0.314	0.412	OK
Dominic Canzone	RF	85	241	62	0.257	15	40	0.330	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.241	0.317	0.432	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	94	341	96	0.282	11	45	0.382	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.244	0.328	0.393	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	95	372	96	0.258	8	37	0.321	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.270	0.324	0.351	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	70	259	42	0.162	10	34	0.269	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.175	0.283	0.316	OK
Luke Raley	CF	85	248	57	0.230	15	37	0.286	4	4	3	1	1	0	0	0.750	0.241	0.274	0.445	OK
Weston Wilson	3B	10	26	6	0.231	2	6	0.231	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	0.333	0.226	0.283	0.418	OK
Colt Emerson	SS	50	161	31	0.193	7	21	0.258	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.187	0.243	0.309	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	10	3	3	2	9	0.294

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brady Singer	Starter	19	94.8	4.65	1.435	7.8	82	5.0	7	1	1	0	6	100	5.0	6	1
Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	19	17.4	6.21	1.437	9.8	19	1.0	2	0	0	1	2	23	1.0	2	0
Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	30	26.6	2.71	1.053	8.8	26	1.0	1	2	2	1	0	20	1.0	0	2
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	50	40.0	3.38	1.625	9.0	40	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Emerson Hancock	Starter	18	97.7	3.22	1.024	8.7	94	5.2	4	2	2	1	7	99	5.2	7	2
Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	38	34.7	3.63	1.210	14.3	55	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	46	37.1	3.15	1.509	8.5	35	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	28	1.1	0	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	46	36.8	2.69	1.440	10.8	44	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

SEA wins 3-2

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs

DET 47-54 (4.24 RPG / 4.0 RA)

4 - 3

CHC 57-44 (5.14 RPG / 4.46 RA)

WINNER: DET wins 4-3 TARGET: DET 4 - 3 CHC (DET) Confidence: 57.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
DET	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	4	9
CHC	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	4

DET Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff3.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.8

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff24.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak

DET Season Quality

Record47-53

Win%0.470

Run Diff33

RD/Game0.330

CHC Season Quality

Record56-44

Win%0.560

Run Diff60

RD/Game0.600

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.405; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kevin McGonigle	SS	97	364	103	0.283	9	35	0.393	5	4	2	0	0	1	0	0.500	0.251	0.351	0.419	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	91	339	93	0.274	22	65	0.338	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.280	0.321	0.561	OK
Colt Keith	3B	90	261	66	0.253	8	23	0.300	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.284	0.319	0.445	OK
Riley Greene	LF	99	357	103	0.289	15	50	0.380	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.254	0.348	0.477	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	99	341	69	0.202	18	48	0.297	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.201	0.279	0.430	OK
Kerry Carpenter	DH	77	218	45	0.206	13	36	0.279	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	0.250	0.177	0.232	0.323	OK
Zach McKinstry	RF	73	228	44	0.193	4	19	0.271	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.188	0.265	0.306	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	2B	57	164	42	0.256	4	17	0.287	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.255	0.282	0.385	OK
James Outman	CF	24	74	11	0.149	3	10	0.192	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.092	0.135	0.179	OK
TEAM TOTALS									44	39	9	4	4	5	7	0.231

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	100	372	107	0.288	21	55	0.388	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.241	0.341	0.443	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	85	318	86	0.270	16	52	0.360	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.271	0.373	0.482	OK
Michael Busch	1B	99	365	90	0.247	13	54	0.372	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	0.250	0.263	0.363	0.449	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	98	386	94	0.244	10	44	0.340	5	5	0	1	1	0	3	0.000	0.238	0.321	0.386	OK
Ian Happ	LF	95	353	78	0.221	18	45	0.335	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.225	0.338	0.415	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	98	395	98	0.248	4	43	0.312	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.278	0.330	0.379	OK
Michael Conforto	DH	63	148	36	0.243	9	23	0.321	4	3	0	1	1	1	0	0.000	0.150	0.234	0.331	OK
Carson Kelly	C	71	231	62	0.268	6	34	0.360	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.226	0.325	0.349	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	95	327	71	0.217	16	58	0.299	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.226	0.304	0.383	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	34	4	3	3	6	11	0.118

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Keider Montero	Starter	21	97.4	3.33	1.016	6.5	70	5.0	3	2	2	6	8	96	5.0	8	2
Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	28	23.8	3.78	1.303	11.0	29	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	41	39.1	2.30	1.560	7.8	34	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	42	37.1	3.64	1.590	9.0	37	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Drew Anderson	Middle Reliever	35	51.5	4.72	1.476	12.4	71	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	12	0.1	1	1
Drew Sommers	Middle Reliever	17	6.9	3.91	2.029	20.9	16	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Brenan Hanifee	Reliever	16	15.8	2.85	1.392	4.0	7	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	0.0	0	0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Colin Rea	Starter	20	96.7	4.93	1.479	7.1	76	5.1	4	2	2	5	5	99	5.1	5	2
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	44	38.9	3.24	1.465	11.6	50	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0
Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	26	27.9	2.58	1.075	4.2	13	1.1	2	1	1	0	0	14	1.1	0	1
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	33	23.4	5.00	1.496	14.2	37	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	13	0.2	1	0
Ryan Rolison	Middle Reliever	34	30.3	3.27	1.584	11.0	37	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Gavin Hollowell	Middle Reliever	10	8.2	3.29	1.951	13.2	12	0.0	2	1	1	0	0	21	0.0	0	1

Game Summary

DET wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies

LAD 64-38 (5.16 RPG / 3.66 RA)

6 - 1

PHI 56-46 (4.34 RPG / 4.45 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 6-1 TARGET: LAD 6 - 1 PHI (LAD) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	1	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	6	8
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	6

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.3

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff-11.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.3

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff-8.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

LAD Season Quality

Record64-38

Win%0.627

Run Diff153

RD/Game1.500

PHI Season Quality

Record56-46

Win%0.549

Run Diff-11

RD/Game-0.108

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.7255; margin adjustment: -0.7247; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	93	356	102	0.287	22	60	0.394	5	3	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.253	0.348	0.464	OK
Andy Pages	CF	100	387	104	0.269	17	68	0.335	5	5	2	1	4	0	1	0.400	0.258	0.315	0.412	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	99	373	106	0.284	15	51	0.368	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.249	0.328	0.390	OK
Max Muncy	3B	93	308	81	0.263	19	45	0.359	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.268	0.361	0.532	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	64	256	60	0.234	13	34	0.294	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.232	0.296	0.431	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	93	344	82	0.238	7	47	0.324	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.220	0.294	0.332	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	66	237	57	0.241	8	37	0.309	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.219	0.284	0.336	OK
Tommy Edman	2B	24	82	28	0.341	2	14	0.419	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.274	0.326	0.450	OK
Dalton Rushing	C	61	190	46	0.242	10	30	0.326	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.195	0.279	0.344	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	8	6	6	3	6	0.229

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trea Turner	SS	96	402	100	0.249	14	40	0.295	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.257	0.305	0.490	OK
Kyle Schwarber	DH	96	365	90	0.247	32	60	0.358	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.212	0.314	0.433	OK
Bryce Harper	1B	100	356	92	0.258	21	60	0.365	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.233	0.337	0.438	OK
Alec Bohm	3B	96	360	80	0.222	12	49	0.282	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.233	0.276	0.367	OK
Edmundo Sosa	LF	54	156	34	0.218	5	25	0.251	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.137	0.165	0.225	OK
Derek Hill	CF	21	59	18	0.305	4	9	0.339	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.145	0.195	0.273	OK
Bryan De La Cruz	RF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.240	0.300	0.398
Bryson Stott	2B	95	334	84	0.251	7	41	0.310	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.241	0.296	0.381	OK
Rafael Marchán	C	28	85	9	0.106	2	6	0.146	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.168	0.193	0.247	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	1	1	1	8	0.182

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eric Lauer	Starter	7	39.4	3.20	1.117	4.8	21	5.1	5	1	1	0	4	91	5.1	4	1
Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	43	38.3	2.58	0.836	12.5	53	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	25	1.2	1	0
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	45	26.4	3.41	1.553	16.7	49	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	5	5.0	5.40	1.400	12.6	7	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	18	1.0	2	0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Aaron Nola	Starter	20	100.2	5.84	1.487	9.7	108	5.0	5	2	2	1	3	91	5.0	3	2
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	35	33.3	0.81	0.841	13.5	50	1.1	2	4	4	2	1	30	1.1	1	4
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	41	34.7	2.59	1.326	11.2	43	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.1	1	0
Jonathan Bowlan	Middle Reliever	36	29.7	3.33	1.178	11.8	39	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-1

Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros

MIA 52-50 (4.46 RPG / 4.32 RA)

3 - 2

HOU 49-54 (4.54 RPG / 5.01 RA)

WINNER: MIA wins 3-2 TARGET: MIA 3 - 2 HOU (MIA) Confidence: 61.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIA	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	3
HOU	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	10

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs2.9

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff-11.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff-4.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

MIA Season Quality

Record52-49

Win%0.515

Run Diff16

RD/Game0.158

HOU Season Quality

Record48-54

Win%0.471

Run Diff-50

RD/Game-0.490

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.715; margin adjustment: -0.3003; applied: True

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Liam Hicks	DH	90	316	90	0.285	14	60	0.359	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.249	0.314	0.395	OK
Otto Lopez	SS	98	391	130	0.332	9	46	0.368	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.262	0.310	0.424	OK
Xavier Edwards	2B	101	372	109	0.293	6	37	0.375	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.241	0.325	0.349	OK
Kyle Stowers	1B	77	288	67	0.233	12	43	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.216	0.286	0.384	OK
Heriberto Hernández	LF	70	224	54	0.241	13	37	0.308	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.254	0.314	0.432	OK
Griffin Conine	RF	33	94	26	0.277	7	16	0.352	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.182	0.250	0.392	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	97	338	65	0.192	5	25	0.313	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.196	0.295	0.282	OK
Joe Mack	C	56	169	41	0.243	9	28	0.301	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.232	0.278	0.444	OK
Javier Sanoja	3B	73	247	68	0.275	3	34	0.305	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.242	0.271	0.372	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	30	3	3	3	5	10	0.100

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	54	208	61	0.293	8	27	0.355	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.268	0.320	0.446	OK
Yordan Alvarez	LF	100	364	120	0.330	33	75	0.436	5	4	2	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.318	0.415	0.621	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	95	346	88	0.254	13	53	0.348	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0.400	0.270	0.341	0.438	OK
LaMonte Wade Jr.	RF	15	43	8	0.186	2	8	0.327	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.209	0.344	0.357	OK
Yainer Diaz	DH	45	174	42	0.241	6	22	0.268	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.238	0.265	0.393	OK
Christian Walker	1B	99	364	86	0.236	20	58	0.313	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.212	0.274	0.368	OK
Lucas Spence	CF	5	17	4	0.235	0	1	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.242	0.316	0.375	OK
Nick Allen	2B	38	92	22	0.239	1	10	0.287	4	4	3	0	0	0	0	0.750	0.142	0.196	0.212	OK
Christian Vázquez	C	60	178	38	0.213	5	22	0.266	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.210	0.262	0.347	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	37	10	2	2	2	4	0.270

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sandy Alcantara	Starter	21	134.8	3.94	1.239	7.1	107	6.1	8	1	1	2	2	112	6.1	2	1
Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	33	28.7	7.84	1.603	12.9	41	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	9	1.0	0	1
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	41	38.9	3.24	1.105	11.8	51	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	42	35.5	5.83	1.887	10.4	41	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	19	0.2	1	0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Peter Lambert	Starter	16	89.9	3.10	1.135	9.1	91	5.2	3	3	3	4	6	96	5.2	6	3
Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	19	18.1	0.99	0.829	14.4	29	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	49	42.9	2.52	0.979	10.9	52	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	35	30.2	5.96	1.722	12.5	42	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever	38	60.2	4.04	1.346	9.9	66	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	16	0.1	1	0

Game Summary

MIA wins 3-2

Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians

MIN 49-53 (4.75 RPG / 5.11 RA)

3 - 2

CLE 54-48 (4.02 RPG / 4.02 RA)

WINNER: MIN wins 3-2 TARGET: MIN 3 - 2 CLE (MIN) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	3	8
CLE	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	2	6

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.3

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff-18.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff8.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

MIN Season Quality

Record49-53

Win%0.480

Run Diff-36

RD/Game-0.353

CLE Season Quality

Record54-48

Win%0.529

Run Diff0

RD/Game0.000

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4265; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trevor Larnach	LF	81	265	77	0.291	7	33	0.373	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.186	0.266	0.339	OK
Brooks Lee	SS	94	357	90	0.252	14	51	0.307	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.244	0.296	0.382	OK
Kody Clemens	2B	87	320	77	0.241	18	48	0.298	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.148	0.198	0.334	OK
Josh Bell	DH	99	362	91	0.251	13	60	0.309	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.249	0.300	0.399	OK
Royce Lewis	3B	67	241	52	0.216	10	30	0.294	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.211	0.291	0.371	OK
Victor Caratini	1B	73	237	56	0.236	7	36	0.323	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.234	0.300	0.354	OK
Alan Roden	RF	9	21	4	0.190	0	4	0.280	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.220	0.307	0.304	OK
Luke Keaschall	CF	94	319	83	0.260	4	28	0.347	4	3	1	1	1	1	2	0.333	0.268	0.343	0.356	OK
Alex Jackson	C	19	55	17	0.309	1	4	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.240	0.247	0.391	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	3	3	2	7	0.229

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	LF	91	312	75	0.240	1	18	0.343	4	3	2	0	0	0	0	0.667	0.295	0.388	0.385	OK
José Ramírez	3B	71	265	64	0.242	10	33	0.340	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.246	0.327	0.403	OK
Chase DeLauter	DH	83	316	92	0.291	11	50	0.352	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.301	0.359	0.478	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	98	339	93	0.274	9	47	0.334	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.262	0.305	0.418	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	70	262	65	0.248	9	33	0.342	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.265	0.352	0.475	OK
Kyle Manzardo	1B	91	282	59	0.209	10	30	0.299	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.202	0.274	0.327	OK
Daniel Schneemann	RF	78	246	52	0.211	6	28	0.281	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.216	0.286	0.326	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	36	109	26	0.239	3	12	0.276	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.247	0.288	0.390	OK
Petey Halpin	CF	30	74	16	0.216	2	5	0.234	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.160	0.188	0.328	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	2	2	1	6	0.182

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bailey Ober	Starter	14	75.6	4.40	1.217	6.9	58	5.1	5	2	2	0	5	86	5.1	5	2
Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	31	23.6	1.91	1.144	9.9	26	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	36	40.7	3.76	1.425	10.6	48	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	21	1.1	0	0
Tommy Nance	Middle Reliever	3	3.1	5.81	2.581	14.5	5	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.1	1	0

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Slade Cecconi	Starter	19	96.2	4.68	1.455	7.2	77	5.1	6	2	2	1	5	89	5.1	5	2
Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	44	44.0	2.86	1.114	13.5	66	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	37	28.1	2.56	1.352	9.9	31	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	37	32.3	1.95	0.960	11.1	40	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	20	1.0	1	1

Game Summary

MIN wins 3-2

New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers

NYM 43-60 (4.07 RPG / 4.69 RA)

2 - 4

MIL 64-38 (5.04 RPG / 3.74 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 4-2 TARGET: NYM 2 - 4 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	8
MIL	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	x	4	5

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.3

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff2.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-5.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

NYM Season Quality

Record43-59

Win%0.422

Run Diff-63

RD/Game-0.618

MIL Season Quality

Record63-38

Win%0.624

Run Diff132

RD/Game1.307

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.2279; margin adjustment: 0.9357; applied: True

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
A.J. Ewing	LF	62	218	59	0.271	7	25	0.344	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.236	0.302	0.363	OK
Juan Soto	DH	82	290	83	0.286	21	52	0.406	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.228	0.361	0.394	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	99	396	101	0.255	10	51	0.302	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.234	0.289	0.332	OK
Francisco Lindor	SS	44	172	40	0.233	6	16	0.316	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.242	0.317	0.418	OK
Carson Benge	RF	96	368	97	0.264	11	40	0.325	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.240	0.298	0.350	OK
Luis Robert Jr.	CF	26	94	20	0.213	3	9	0.308	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.199	0.284	0.332	OK
Jared Young	1B	52	152	38	0.250	7	18	0.325	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.168	0.233	0.311	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	82	299	63	0.211	9	29	0.267	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.186	0.237	0.283	OK
Francisco Alvarez	C	65	217	55	0.253	11	24	0.324	3	3	1	0	0	0	2	0.333	0.241	0.314	0.429	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	35	8	2	2	0	6	0.229

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Christian Yelich	DH	65	253	60	0.237	6	33	0.329	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.236	0.321	0.376	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	67	278	77	0.277	13	39	0.338	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.243	0.308	0.388	OK
Brice Turang	2B	94	368	96	0.261	14	61	0.355	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.228	0.327	0.432	OK
William Contreras	C	93	360	99	0.275	10	57	0.340	4	3	2	1	4	1	0	0.667	0.228	0.304	0.376	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	86	285	79	0.277	7	42	0.357	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.287	0.356	0.453	OK
Andrew Vaughn	1B	57	160	49	0.306	3	26	0.381	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.270	0.335	0.484	OK
Jake Bauers	RF	90	306	80	0.261	18	59	0.366	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.226	0.340	0.414	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	28	89	24	0.270	1	8	0.356	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.265	0.345	0.406	OK
Joey Ortiz	3B	77	227	52	0.229	5	26	0.296	3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.231	0.309	0.402	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	29	5	4	4	3	6	0.172

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Christian Scott	Starter	13	56.4	3.03	1.294	11.5	72	5.2	2	1	1	3	6	95	5.2	6	1
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	36	31.1	4.34	1.640	13.0	45	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.1	0	0
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	39	38.9	2.08	0.848	9.9	43	1.0	3	3	3	0	0	22	1.0	0	3

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Logan Henderson	Starter	7	33.1	2.99	0.937	10.3	38	5.1	6	1	1	0	5	85	5.1	5	1
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	38	38.0	1.89	0.895	11.4	48	1.2	2	1	1	0	0	7	1.2	0	1
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	41	37.4	2.65	1.123	9.4	39	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	47	52.3	3.79	1.587	13.4	78	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

MIL wins 4-2

Oakland Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks

OAK 43-59 (4.49 RPG / 5.69 RA)

3 - 5

ARI 53-49 (4.47 RPG / 4.5 RA)

WINNER: ARI wins 5-3 TARGET: OAK 3 - 5 ARI (ARI) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	3	7
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	x	5	8

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs3.2

Avg Allowed6.6

Run Diff-34.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.900

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed0.0

Run Diff37.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

OAK Season Quality

Record43-57

Win%0.430

Run Diff-111

RD/Game-1.110

ARI Season Quality

Record51-49

Win%0.510

Run Diff-14

RD/Game-0.140

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.09; margin adjustment: 0.4578; applied: True

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jacob Wilson	SS	61	247	72	0.291	7	32	0.323	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.278	0.304	0.458	OK
Tyler Soderstrom	LF	89	320	79	0.247	16	47	0.346	5	1	0	0	0	4	0	0.000	0.248	0.329	0.481	OK
Shea Langeliers	DH	91	369	96	0.260	23	51	0.330	5	4	2	1	1	1	2	0.500	0.242	0.309	0.477	OK
Carlos Cortes	RF	75	214	60	0.280	7	25	0.354	5	5	1	1	2	0	0	0.200	0.184	0.245	0.341	OK
Donovan Walton	3B	5	8	1	0.125	0	0	0.500	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.233	0.328	0.414	OK
Tommy White	1B	4	16	7	0.438	0	0	0.471	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.273	0.315	0.404	OK
Jeff McNeil	2B	87	273	64	0.234	3	30	0.293	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.246	0.292	0.328	OK
Lawrence Butler	CF	87	256	51	0.199	5	23	0.293	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.207	0.292	0.313	OK
Jonah Heim	C	43	143	33	0.231	8	23	0.273	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.220	0.264	0.362	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	34	7	3	3	7	6	0.206

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ryan Waldschmidt	CF	32	112	29	0.259	0	8	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.157	0.210	0.281	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	75	257	61	0.237	4	27	0.354	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.232	0.356	0.344	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	73	297	78	0.263	12	46	0.315	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.333	0.288	0.341	0.475	OK
Ildemaro Vargas	1B	62	230	60	0.261	7	37	0.299	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.207	0.263	0.324	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	51	174	48	0.276	6	25	0.358	4	4	1	1	3	0	0	0.250	0.293	0.368	0.478	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	73	247	59	0.239	8	32	0.315	4	4	2	1	0	0	2	0.500	0.243	0.303	0.358	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	75	278	79	0.284	13	42	0.372	4	4	1	1	1	0	3	0.250	0.291	0.368	0.561	OK
Max Kepler	LF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.256	0.320	0.420
Tim Tawa	LF	14	36	5	0.139	0	2	0.238	3	2	1	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.216	0.306	0.334	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	8	5	5	2	9	0.250

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gage Jump	Starter	10	50.7	3.91	1.361	9.9	56	5.0	0	0	0	0	7	90	5.0	7	0
Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	27	24.8	6.53	1.452	13.1	36	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	17	0.1	1	1
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	48	35.8	4.02	1.899	15.1	60	1.0	4	4	4	2	0	9	1.0	0	4
Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	32	42.5	3.60	1.482	11.6	55	1.2	3	0	0	0	1	23	1.2	1	0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	15	86.7	2.49	1.257	6.7	65	6.2	3	0	0	4	5	109	6.2	5	0
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1	1.0	9.00	2.000	0.0	0	0.1	1	1	1	1	0	20	0.1	0	1
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	2	2.1	0.00	0.476	8.6	2	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	2	1.2	15.00	3.333	7.5	1	0.0	2	2	2	2	0	20	0.0	0	2

Game Summary

ARI wins 5-3

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees

PIT 53-49 (5.32 RPG / 4.8 RA)

4 - 5

NYY 56-45 (4.73 RPG / 3.88 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 5-4 TARGET: PIT 4 - 5 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	4	5
NYY	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	x	5	6

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs6.3

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff21.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff9.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

PIT Season Quality

Record52-49

Win%0.515

Run Diff51

RD/Game0.505

NYY Season Quality

Record56-44

Win%0.560

Run Diff88

RD/Game0.880

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4428; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake Mangum	CF	71	246	74	0.301	2	20	0.347	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.256	0.294	0.361	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	93	368	90	0.245	21	65	0.313	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	0.667	0.240	0.301	0.408	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	101	365	103	0.282	14	59	0.399	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.262	0.367	0.435	OK
Esmerlyn Valdez	RF	32	108	33	0.306	13	34	0.377	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.270	0.350	0.653	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	DH	84	320	90	0.281	16	64	0.342	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.253	0.315	0.418	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	94	356	110	0.309	5	45	0.367	4	4	1	1	3	0	0	0.250	0.280	0.330	0.417	OK
Jacob Gonzalez	SS	5	12	4	0.333	1	3	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.262	0.311	0.435	OK
Henry Davis	C	56	174	29	0.167	8	27	0.259	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.206	0.278	0.361	OK
Tyler Callihan	1B	30	83	20	0.241	3	15	0.319	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.138	0.212	0.280	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	5	4	4	2	7	0.156

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trent Grisham	CF	78	274	62	0.226	11	41	0.326	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.210	0.308	0.398	OK
Ben Rice	1B	94	352	99	0.281	29	67	0.373	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.284	0.363	0.547	OK
Spencer Jones	DH	28	73	17	0.233	2	7	0.317	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.258	0.330	0.403	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	98	361	92	0.255	11	52	0.344	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.270	0.354	0.406	OK
Jasson Domínguez	RF	39	148	34	0.230	5	11	0.265	4	3	2	1	4	1	0	0.667	0.233	0.262	0.375	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	94	334	76	0.228	16	43	0.298	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.254	0.315	0.514	OK
José Caballero	SS	85	283	70	0.247	10	37	0.299	4	2	0	1	0	2	1	0.000	0.242	0.284	0.379	OK
Ryan McMahon	3B	75	217	47	0.217	9	26	0.274	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.230	0.280	0.391	OK
Austin Wells	C	69	202	32	0.158	6	13	0.253	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.208	0.298	0.313	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	30	6	5	5	5	6	0.200

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Mitch Keller	Starter	19	101.7	5.22	1.347	6.8	77	5.1	4	5	5	3	3	91	5.1	3	5
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	40	38.1	3.54	1.076	10.9	46	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	19	1.0	2	0
Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	39	32.7	4.13	1.437	16.0	58	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	16	0.1	0	0
Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	41	47.2	3.62	1.504	11.2	59	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	11	1.1	1	0
Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	43	39.1	5.98	1.509	8.5	37	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	0.0	0	0
Carmen Mlodzinski	Middle Reliever	21	81.1	3.22	1.381	7.3	66	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.0	0	0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gerrit Cole	Starter	10	53.6	4.03	1.194	9.2	55	5.1	4	3	3	2	5	87	5.1	5	3
David Bednar	Middle Reliever	38	39.1	2.76	1.151	10.8	47	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.1	0	0
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	47	31.0	3.19	1.710	16.0	55	1.1	1	1	1	0	2	16	1.1	2	1
Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	50	41.0	1.76	1.341	13.0	59	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 5-4

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees

PIT 53-49 (5.32 RPG / 4.8 RA)

4 - 5

NYY 56-45 (4.73 RPG / 3.88 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 5-4 TARGET: PIT 4 - 5 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	8
NYY	1	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	x	5	7

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs6.3

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff21.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff9.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

PIT Season Quality

Record52-49

Win%0.515

Run Diff51

RD/Game0.505

NYY Season Quality

Record56-44

Win%0.560

Run Diff88

RD/Game0.880

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4428; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake Mangum	CF	71	246	74	0.301	2	20	0.347	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.256	0.294	0.361	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	93	368	90	0.245	21	65	0.313	5	5	1	0	0	0	3	0.200	0.240	0.302	0.409	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	101	365	103	0.282	14	59	0.399	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.262	0.367	0.435	OK
Esmerlyn Valdez	RF	32	108	33	0.306	13	34	0.377	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.270	0.350	0.654	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	DH	84	320	90	0.281	16	64	0.342	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.254	0.316	0.418	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	94	356	110	0.309	5	45	0.367	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.281	0.330	0.418	OK
Jacob Gonzalez	SS	5	12	4	0.333	1	3	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.262	0.311	0.435	OK
Henry Davis	C	56	174	29	0.167	8	27	0.259	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.206	0.278	0.361	OK
Tyler Callihan	1B	30	83	20	0.241	3	15	0.319	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.138	0.212	0.280	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	8	4	4	3	10	0.235

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trent Grisham	CF	78	274	62	0.226	11	41	0.326	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.210	0.308	0.398	OK
Ben Rice	1B	94	352	99	0.281	29	67	0.373	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.284	0.363	0.547	OK
Spencer Jones	DH	28	73	17	0.233	2	7	0.317	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.258	0.330	0.403	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	98	361	92	0.255	11	52	0.344	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.270	0.354	0.406	OK
Jasson Domínguez	RF	39	148	34	0.230	5	11	0.265	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.233	0.262	0.375	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	94	334	76	0.228	16	43	0.298	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.254	0.315	0.514	OK
José Caballero	SS	85	283	70	0.247	10	37	0.299	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.242	0.284	0.379	OK
Ryan McMahon	3B	75	217	47	0.217	9	26	0.274	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.230	0.280	0.391	OK
Austin Wells	C	69	202	32	0.158	6	13	0.253	3	3	1	0	0	0	2	0.333	0.208	0.298	0.314	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	7	5	5	2	9	0.226

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bubba Chandler	Starter	19	92.0	4.89	1.489	8.3	85	5.1	6	5	5	2	7	93	5.1	7	5
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	40	38.1	3.54	1.076	10.9	46	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	24	1.2	0	0
Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	39	32.7	4.13	1.437	16.0	58	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gerrit Cole	Starter	10	53.6	4.03	1.194	9.2	55	5.1	6	2	2	1	7	100	5.1	7	2
David Bednar	Middle Reliever	38	39.1	2.76	1.151	10.8	47	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.1	1	0
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	47	31.0	3.19	1.710	16.0	55	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	50	41.0	1.76	1.341	13.0	59	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever	34	47.1	2.29	1.189	7.3	38	0.1	2	2	2	2	1	18	0.1	1	2

Game Summary

NYY wins 5-4

San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves

SD 50-51 (4.11 RPG / 4.39 RA)

2 - 4

ATL 58-43 (4.92 RPG / 3.94 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 4-2 TARGET: SD 2 - 4 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	3
ATL	1	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	x	4	6

SD Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.7

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff13.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.2

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff17.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SD Season Quality

Record50-51

Win%0.495

Run Diff-28

RD/Game-0.277

ATL Season Quality

Record58-43

Win%0.574

Run Diff99

RD/Game0.980

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.3762; margin adjustment: 0.578; applied: True

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	99	392	112	0.286	8	43	0.350	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.277	0.340	0.471	OK
Luis Rengifo	DH	4	12	6	0.500	0	1	0.571	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.173	0.255	0.236	OK
Manny Machado	3B	98	358	73	0.204	22	59	0.294	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.224	0.314	0.470	OK
Ty France	1B	69	227	64	0.282	15	41	0.336	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.285	0.323	0.603	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	97	383	85	0.222	13	43	0.278	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.226	0.279	0.414	OK
Luis Campusano	C	29	79	23	0.291	4	12	0.391	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.259	0.355	0.447	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	96	336	74	0.220	9	38	0.312	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.204	0.291	0.310	OK
Jake Cronenworth	2B	49	158	31	0.196	3	12	0.287	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.216	0.287	0.312	OK
Jase Bowen	LF	19	47	7	0.149	0	3	0.200	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.179	0.214	0.278	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	30	3	2	2	2	6	0.100

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drake Baldwin	C	78	300	82	0.273	19	55	0.363	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.301	0.378	0.529	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	101	390	102	0.262	15	54	0.313	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.233	0.281	0.383	OK
Matt Olson	1B	101	391	104	0.266	26	59	0.341	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.251	0.332	0.476	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	94	357	108	0.303	18	59	0.330	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.284	0.307	0.504	OK
Austin Riley	3B	101	362	77	0.213	12	47	0.293	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.243	0.304	0.463	OK
Mike Yastrzemski	DH	83	232	53	0.228	6	27	0.313	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.254	0.331	0.442	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	97	363	96	0.264	10	54	0.317	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.236	0.284	0.369	OK
Jim Jarvis	SS	15	48	14	0.292	1	6	0.333	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.266	0.298	0.451	OK
Brewer Hicklen	RF	4	14	5	0.357	0	2	0.471	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.260	0.379	0.517	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	29	6	4	4	5	7	0.207

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael King	Starter	20	111.0	3.41	1.180	7.8	96	5.2	5	4	4	3	5	110	5.2	5	4
Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	40	39.1	0.92	0.921	18.0	78	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	23	1.0	1	0
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	46	46.0	3.91	1.261	11.5	59	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	19	0.1	1	0
Wandy Peralta	Middle Reliever	43	44.5	2.63	1.438	6.5	32	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Martín Pérez	Starter	18	79.7	3.61	1.217	7.0	62	5.0	3	2	2	2	5	80	5.0	5	2
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	33	33.4	2.43	1.078	10.2	38	2.1	0	0	0	0	0	23	2.1	0	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	46	38.6	2.10	0.855	13.1	56	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	40	30.8	4.68	1.429	10.5	36	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	12	0.2	1	0

Game Summary

ATL wins 4-2

San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals

SF 43-60 (4.12 RPG / 4.69 RA)

6 - 2

KC 43-60 (4.25 RPG / 5.18 RA)

WINNER: SF wins 6-2 TARGET: SF 6 - 2 KC (SF) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	0	0	4	0	0	1	0	1	0	6	9
KC	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	5

SF Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff2.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

KC Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.1

Avg Allowed5.5

Run Diff-24.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak

SF Season Quality

Record43-59

Win%0.422

Run Diff-58

RD/Game-0.569

KC Season Quality

Record42-60

Win%0.412

Run Diff-97

RD/Game-0.951

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3971; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Luis Arraez	2B	95	376	124	0.330	4	35	0.369	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0.200	0.266	0.312	0.389	OK
Bryce Eldridge	DH	60	208	57	0.274	10	24	0.369	4	4	1	1	1	0	3	0.250	0.258	0.352	0.482	OK
Casey Schmitt	3B	92	367	100	0.272	19	49	0.303	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.240	0.270	0.402	OK
Rafael Devers	1B	101	383	93	0.243	20	53	0.314	4	4	3	1	5	0	0	0.750	0.216	0.287	0.418	OK
Heliot Ramos	LF	62	238	63	0.265	9	31	0.299	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.251	0.279	0.431	OK
Jung Hoo Lee	RF	92	346	106	0.306	5	33	0.340	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.275	0.305	0.388	OK
Willy Adames	SS	96	375	85	0.227	18	44	0.276	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.215	0.264	0.463	OK
Drew Gilbert	CF	72	205	47	0.229	4	21	0.290	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.218	0.262	0.347	OK
Daniel Susac	C	35	111	29	0.261	0	14	0.306	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.211	0.247	0.305	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	36	9	6	6	1	7	0.250

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	C	92	329	80	0.243	14	52	0.310	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.243	0.308	0.437	OK
Lane Thomas	CF	82	250	60	0.240	9	33	0.334	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.257	0.339	0.475	OK
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	73	269	61	0.227	6	33	0.318	4	3	1	1	1	1	2	0.333	0.240	0.328	0.340	OK
Salvador Perez	DH	93	361	77	0.213	13	41	0.261	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.220	0.256	0.403	OK
Michael Massey	2B	79	244	65	0.266	7	33	0.305	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.276	0.321	0.414	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	88	279	69	0.247	5	32	0.350	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.267	0.348	0.403	OK
Starling Marte	RF	42	115	31	0.270	1	9	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.264	0.310	0.347	OK
Josh Rojas	3B	17	43	10	0.233	1	5	0.233	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.153	0.162	0.248	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	93	366	102	0.279	13	38	0.347	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.222	0.294	0.371	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	5	2	2	1	10	0.156

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Landen Roupp	Starter	19	101.2	4.09	1.304	9.4	106	5.2	3	2	2	1	7	97	5.2	7	2
Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	40	35.2	4.60	1.449	12.3	48	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0
Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	32	23.9	3.39	1.590	15.1	40	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	31	45.6	2.96	1.228	6.9	35	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	12	1.1	2	0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Seth Lugo	Starter	20	108.8	4.47	1.434	7.4	89	5.0	7	5	5	0	3	86	5.0	3	5
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	40	37.5	6.72	1.653	9.8	41	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	18	1.0	2	0
Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	41	36.9	2.44	1.057	8.3	34	2.0	1	1	1	1	1	32	2.0	1	1
Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	39	36.0	5.00	1.667	6.8	27	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

SF wins 6-2

St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels

STL 52-49 (4.44 RPG / 4.44 RA)

5 - 4

LAA 41-62 (4.29 RPG / 4.85 RA)

WINNER: STL wins 5-4 TARGET: STL 5 - 4 LAA (STL) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
STL	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	5	6
LAA	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	8

STL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff-4.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff6.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

STL Season Quality

Record45-42

Win%0.517

Run Diff8

RD/Game0.092

LAA Season Quality

Record32-49

Win%0.395

Run Diff-50

RD/Game-0.617

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.8925; margin adjustment: -0.3749; applied: True

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	93	368	95	0.258	14	38	0.353	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.237	0.307	0.367	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	99	366	88	0.240	11	40	0.364	5	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.222	0.297	0.320	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	97	372	109	0.293	21	73	0.356	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.264	0.327	0.442	OK
Nelson Velázquez	LF	25	61	14	0.230	4	12	0.294	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.225	0.280	0.432	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	98	376	105	0.279	15	68	0.340	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.288	0.340	0.445	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	89	328	78	0.238	4	42	0.308	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.213	0.286	0.297	OK
José Fermín	CF	62	169	45	0.266	4	20	0.324	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.267	0.330	0.380	OK
Blaze Jordan	3B	26	88	22	0.250	1	18	0.263	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.250	0.275	0.396	OK
Pedro Pagés	C	49	148	31	0.209	4	11	0.247	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.187	0.218	0.288	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	35	6	5	5	3	8	0.171

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	99	391	93	0.238	19	46	0.327	5	5	2	1	2	0	2	0.400	0.245	0.312	0.390	OK
Mike Trout	CF	83	300	70	0.233	18	39	0.387	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.227	0.362	0.401	OK
Nolan Schanuel	1B	81	303	86	0.284	6	35	0.358	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.302	0.378	0.406	OK
Jorge Soler	DH	79	288	60	0.208	11	45	0.297	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.201	0.273	0.342	OK
Vaughn Grissom	2B	58	203	52	0.256	5	37	0.319	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.265	0.315	0.403	OK
Josh Lowe	LF	59	180	36	0.200	8	22	0.249	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.194	0.251	0.351	OK
Jo Adell	RF	101	391	95	0.243	15	57	0.289	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.228	0.250	0.428	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	30	118	29	0.246	4	14	0.288	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.219	0.259	0.348	OK
Logan O'Hoppe	C	68	223	47	0.211	4	23	0.275	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.191	0.252	0.275	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	38	8	4	4	2	9	0.211

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Dustin May	Starter	19	95.9	4.88	1.345	8.9	95	4.2	5	2	2	2	5	86	4.2	5	2
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	41	38.8	3.94	1.263	9.5	41	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	44	37.5	3.84	1.253	9.4	39	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	17	1.0	2	0
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	42	31.8	5.38	1.761	11.6	41	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Gordon Graceffo	Middle Reliever	41	39.0	3.92	1.333	6.0	26	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0
Matt Svanson	Reliever	38	35.5	7.35	1.831	10.1	40	0.2	1	2	2	0	2	18	0.2	2	2

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Reid Detmers	Starter	20	111.4	4.28	1.149	10.5	130	5.2	4	1	1	1	6	92	5.2	6	1
Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	41	42.8	4.21	1.308	13.9	66	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	24	19.8	3.64	1.111	12.7	28	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	20	1.2	1	1
Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	37	38.9	4.40	1.388	10.4	45	1.0	1	3	3	2	0	24	1.0	0	3

Game Summary

STL wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays

TB 58-42 (4.54 RPG / 4.24 RA)

4 - 3

TOR 46-55 (3.96 RPG / 4.56 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 4-3 TARGET: TB 4 - 3 TOR (TB) Confidence: 63.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	4	8
TOR	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	3	8

TB Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed5.2

Run Diff-5.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff-5.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TB Season Quality

Record58-42

Win%0.580

Run Diff30

RD/Game0.300

TOR Season Quality

Record46-55

Win%0.455

Run Diff-61

RD/Game-0.604

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0908; margin adjustment: -0.4581; applied: True

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	96	372	116	0.312	14	60	0.388	5	3	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.256	0.318	0.399	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	99	363	105	0.289	14	65	0.385	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.263	0.344	0.399	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	100	379	109	0.288	29	62	0.380	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.297	0.389	0.534	OK
Cedric Mullins	CF	85	297	60	0.202	12	31	0.280	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.205	0.271	0.349	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	90	349	101	0.289	0	18	0.322	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.206	0.244	0.296	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	32	101	22	0.218	8	15	0.298	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.237	0.313	0.510	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	76	242	53	0.219	0	21	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.227	0.309	0.331	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	70	208	49	0.236	3	27	0.333	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.144	0.250	0.243	OK
Hunter Feduccia	C	50	126	29	0.230	2	10	0.300	4	4	3	1	1	0	0	0.750	0.155	0.229	0.280	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	4	4	2	6	0.229

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ernie Clement	2B	98	377	113	0.300	8	32	0.324	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.277	0.303	0.387	OK
Nathan Lukes	RF	65	214	62	0.290	5	18	0.341	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.270	0.306	0.390	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	95	355	91	0.256	6	41	0.334	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.226	0.298	0.335	OK
George Springer	DH	70	272	62	0.228	10	25	0.310	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.240	0.306	0.404	OK
Yohendrick Pinango	LF	49	150	40	0.267	5	19	0.308	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.241	0.285	0.374	OK
Alejandro Kirk	C	29	98	20	0.204	2	10	0.282	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.226	0.307	0.333	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	82	297	71	0.239	7	25	0.302	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.218	0.272	0.340	OK
Sean Keys	3B	10	34	6	0.176	1	5	0.176	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.193	0.201	0.293	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	92	301	68	0.226	7	38	0.269	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.199	0.224	0.309	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	8	3	3	3	5	0.229

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Griffin Jax	Starter	25	72.2	3.86	1.260	9.6	77	5.0	3	1	1	2	3	85	5.0	3	1
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	39	36.4	1.73	0.879	10.1	41	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1
Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	42	39.8	2.71	1.055	7.7	34	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	33	26.2	4.12	1.450	13.4	39	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	22	1.0	0	1
Casey Legumina	Middle Reliever	24	25.7	3.50	1.284	7.0	20	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	20	0.2	1	0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Braydon Fisher	Starter	47	42.1	4.28	1.378	10.7	50	5.0	6	3	3	2	5	89	5.0	5	3
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	45	46.5	1.16	1.032	13.2	68	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	46	41.4	1.74	1.208	5.0	23	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	45	37.9	4.99	1.557	15.7	66	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever	50	30.1	4.78	1.728	14.1	47	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	18	1.0	1	1

Game Summary

TB wins 4-3

Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies

WAS 52-51 (5.5 RPG / 5.25 RA)

5 - 2

COL 41-63 (4.76 RPG / 5.73 RA)

WINNER: WAS wins 5-2 TARGET: WAS 5 - 2 COL (WAS) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
WAS	0	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	5	7
COL	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	6

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.7

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff6.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak

COL Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed5.2

Run Diff-12.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

WAS Season Quality

Record51-50

Win%0.505

Run Diff19

RD/Game0.188

COL Season Quality

Record40-62

Win%0.392

Run Diff-94

RD/Game-0.922

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.2789; margin adjustment: -0.5371; applied: True

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	DH	102	392	107	0.273	28	68	0.401	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.261	0.376	0.510	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	94	317	89	0.281	20	68	0.312	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.178	0.217	0.352	OK
Curtis Mead	3B	85	279	72	0.258	17	48	0.349	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.206	0.294	0.392	OK
CJ Abrams	SS	98	366	102	0.279	24	76	0.354	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.285	0.349	0.607	OK
Keibert Ruiz	C	63	207	57	0.275	7	35	0.305	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.268	0.299	0.467	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	100	389	96	0.247	11	49	0.298	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.248	0.291	0.437	OK
Dylan Crews	RF	50	189	39	0.206	7	20	0.279	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.200	0.261	0.348	OK
Jacob Young	CF	82	283	65	0.230	9	33	0.283	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.245	0.296	0.409	OK
Nasim Nuñez	2B	88	284	71	0.250	1	28	0.331	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.271	0.343	0.336	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	7	5	5	3	9	0.206

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	RF	82	300	92	0.307	10	55	0.348	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.294	0.328	0.480	OK
Mickey Moniak	LF	64	222	62	0.279	16	42	0.319	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.259	0.288	0.475	OK
Hunter Goodman	C	94	354	91	0.257	31	57	0.326	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.263	0.325	0.586	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	97	351	105	0.299	13	51	0.381	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.277	0.354	0.443	OK
Willi Castro	2B	86	308	81	0.263	9	43	0.331	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.255	0.312	0.452	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	94	287	75	0.261	9	35	0.361	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.235	0.327	0.396	OK
Cole Carrigg	CF	34	113	34	0.301	4	24	0.376	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.283	0.356	0.465	OK
Troy Johnston	DH	88	287	85	0.296	3	40	0.359	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.244	0.306	0.365	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	93	324	64	0.198	8	32	0.242	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.178	0.224	0.286	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	6	2	2	1	9	0.182

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cade Cavalli	Starter	21	102.1	3.88	1.342	10.5	119	5.2	5	1	1	0	6	86	5.2	6	1
Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	30	26.4	3.75	1.364	11.2	33	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0
Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	31	25.3	4.27	1.344	8.9	25	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Riley Cornelio	Middle Reliever	8	15.4	6.43	2.013	9.9	17	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	22	1.0	0	1

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gabriel Hughes	Starter	3	14.1	3.19	1.135	8.9	14	4.2	1	0	0	2	6	76	4.2	6	0
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	31	45.1	3.99	1.375	8.8	44	1.1	3	3	3	0	0	24	1.1	0	3
Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	41	38.7	6.28	1.783	10.7	46	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	22	1.0	1	2
Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	6	5.2	1.73	1.538	13.8	8	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	21	1.0	2	0
Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	26	24.1	4.85	1.535	10.5	28	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

WAS wins 5-2

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

BAL Recent Form

BOS Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

BOS Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

BAL Recent Form

BOS Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

BOS Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers

CHW Recent Form

TEX Recent Form

CHW Season Quality

TEX Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners

CIN Recent Form

SEA Recent Form

CIN Season Quality

SEA Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs

DET Recent Form

CHC Recent Form

DET Season Quality

CHC Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies

LAD Recent Form

PHI Recent Form

LAD Season Quality

PHI Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros

MIA Recent Form

HOU Recent Form

MIA Season Quality

HOU Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians