MLB Predictions — July 19, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
BAL @ HOU	3 - 2	3 - 2	BAL	BAL	BAL wins 3-2	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHW @ TOR	5 - 2	5 - 2	CHW	CHW	CHW wins 5-2	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CIN @ COL	7 - 2	7 - 2	CIN	CIN	CIN wins 7-2	62%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
DET @ LAA	5 - 3	5 - 3	DET	DET	DET wins 5-3	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ NYY	2 - 3	2 - 3	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 3-2	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ NYY	4 - 3	4 - 3	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 4-3	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIA @ MIL	2 - 4	2 - 4	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 4-2	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIN @ CHC	3 - 5	3 - 5	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 5-3	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ PHI	5 - 3	5 - 3	NYM	NYM	NYM wins 5-3	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ CLE	6 - 2	6 - 2	PIT	PIT	PIT wins 6-2	63%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ KC	3 - 5	3 - 5	KC	KC	KC wins 5-3	62%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SF @ SEA	3 - 4	3 - 4	SEA	SEA	SEA wins 4-3	62%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
STL @ ARI	2 - 5	2 - 5	ARI	ARI	ARI wins 5-2	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ BOS	4 - 5	4 - 5	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 5-4	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TEX @ ATL	2 - 5	2 - 5	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 5-2	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
WAS @ OAK	5 - 1	5 - 1	WAS	WAS	WAS wins 5-1	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros

BAL 49-51 (4.59 RPG / 4.72 RA)

3 - 2

HOU 47-54 (4.5 RPG / 5.03 RA)

WINNER: BAL wins 3-2 TARGET: BAL 3 - 2 HOU (BAL) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	5
HOU	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff8.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.9

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff1.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

BAL Season Quality

Record48-51

Win%0.485

Run Diff-16

RD/Game-0.162

HOU Season Quality

Record47-53

Win%0.470

Run Diff-50

RD/Game-0.500

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3607; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Gunnar Henderson	SS	96	398	87	0.219	16	42	0.287	4	3	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.221	0.267	0.366	OK
Taylor Ward	DH	96	358	91	0.254	7	26	0.386	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.246	0.378	0.423	OK
Dylan Beavers	LF	42	133	32	0.241	2	13	0.311	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.261	0.317	0.397	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	97	361	91	0.252	21	66	0.348	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.248	0.343	0.451	OK
Samuel Basallo	C	82	280	68	0.243	16	46	0.303	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.227	0.284	0.450	OK
Leody Taveras	RF	79	252	60	0.238	4	35	0.311	4	3	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.155	0.229	0.306	OK
Colton Cowser	CF	77	202	43	0.213	7	24	0.297	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.200	0.275	0.297	OK
Coby Mayo	3B	71	224	44	0.196	12	34	0.267	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.219	0.278	0.456	OK
Jackson Holliday	2B	44	122	26	0.213	5	15	0.310	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.229	0.337	0.354	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	30	5	3	3	1	9	0.167

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jose Altuve	DH	76	294	68	0.231	11	27	0.302	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.228	0.285	0.394	OK
Yordan Alvarez	LF	97	352	114	0.324	31	72	0.434	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.311	0.418	0.606	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	92	335	83	0.248	12	50	0.344	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.243	0.320	0.374	OK
LaMonte Wade Jr.	1B	12	36	8	0.222	2	8	0.333	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.235	0.335	0.416	OK
Yainer Diaz	C	43	166	40	0.241	6	22	0.269	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.232	0.260	0.418	OK
Lucas Spence	CF	2	7	3	0.429	0	0	0.500	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.262	0.345	0.362	OK
Cam Smith	RF	95	330	70	0.212	12	33	0.285	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.191	0.253	0.339	OK
Raynel Delgado	2B	11	30	8	0.267	1	4	0.290	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.209	0.240	0.346	OK
Nick Allen	SS	37	89	22	0.247	1	10	0.296	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.143	0.201	0.215	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	4	2	2	4	14	0.129

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brandon Young	Starter	15	82.0	3.51	1.390	7.4	67	5.2	3	2	2	4	7	108	5.2	7	2
Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	31	24.2	4.46	1.446	8.9	24	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	25	1.0	3	0
Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever	37	43.4	3.11	1.106	10.0	48	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	45	37.1	2.91	0.970	10.4	43	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	18	1.0	2	0
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	42	25.7	2.45	1.128	9.8	28	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	12	0.1	1	0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Hunter Brown	Starter	7	34.4	3.66	1.424	10.2	39	5.0	3	2	2	1	5	91	5.0	5	2
Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	17	16.1	0.56	0.683	15.7	28	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
Bryan King	Middle Reliever	41	39.1	3.68	1.483	7.8	34	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	48	41.9	2.58	0.955	10.7	50	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12	1.0	1	0
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	34	29.2	6.16	1.712	12.3	40	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	5	1.0	1	1

Game Summary

BAL wins 3-2

Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

CHW 52-46 (4.79 RPG / 4.33 RA)

5 - 2

TOR 46-53 (4.01 RPG / 4.46 RA)

WINNER: CHW wins 5-2 TARGET: CHW 5 - 2 TOR (CHW) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	1	1	5	7
TOR	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	8

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.100

Avg Runs0.3

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-26.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed5.4

Run Diff-13.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

CHW Season Quality

Record51-46

Win%0.526

Run Diff42

RD/Game0.433

TOR Season Quality

Record46-52

Win%0.469

Run Diff-42

RD/Game-0.429

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9461; margin adjustment: -0.3974; applied: True

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Tristan Peters	CF	68	194	56	0.289	3	24	0.344	5	5	2	1	1	0	2	0.400	0.173	0.232	0.332	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	74	271	59	0.218	20	45	0.312	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.209	0.278	0.446	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	74	281	76	0.270	6	25	0.334	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.243	0.297	0.349	OK
Munetaka Murakami	IF	56	198	48	0.242	20	41	0.381	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.248	0.376	0.533	OK
Kyle Teel	C	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	3	0	1	1	0	3	0.000	0.248	0.312	0.408
Miguel Vargas	3B	75	275	65	0.236	16	44	0.350	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.224	0.316	0.386	OK
Braden Montgomery	OF	12	42	11	0.262	1	5	0.311	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.248	0.300	0.435	OK
Sam Antonacci	SS	58	199	58	0.291	4	22	0.391	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.286	0.345	0.472	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	69	214	50	0.234	9	37	0.292	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.221	0.280	0.457	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	7	5	5	3	9	0.212

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ernie Clement	2B	95	366	108	0.295	8	32	0.319	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.258	0.281	0.386	OK
Nathan Lukes	RF	62	202	57	0.282	5	18	0.336	5	3	1	1	1	2	1	0.333	0.247	0.288	0.376	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	DH	92	343	91	0.265	6	41	0.344	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.254	0.335	0.392	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	94	346	81	0.234	22	62	0.317	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.216	0.294	0.421	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	79	286	68	0.238	7	24	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.205	0.264	0.335	OK
Sean Keys	1B	9	32	6	0.188	1	5	0.188	4	4	3	0	0	0	0	0.750	0.201	0.209	0.306	OK
Brandon Valenzuela	C	55	166	40	0.241	8	21	0.321	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.229	0.303	0.392	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	89	292	68	0.233	7	38	0.277	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.217	0.246	0.332	OK
Jonatan Clase	LF	8	19	6	0.316	2	6	0.409	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.156	0.266	0.274	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	35	8	2	2	4	10	0.229

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Davis Martin	Starter	14	79.8	3.38	1.216	9.4	83	6.0	2	0	0	3	8	97	6.0	8	0
Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	1.48	1.311	11.8	8	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1	2.1	8.57	1.905	4.3	1	1.0	0	1	1	1	0	33	1.0	0	1
Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	2	1.1	16.36	3.636	0.0	0	1.0	4	1	1	0	1	25	1.0	1	1

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trey Yesavage	Starter	14	72.2	3.86	1.205	8.6	69	5.1	5	3	3	1	6	91	5.1	6	3
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	45	46.5	1.16	1.032	13.2	68	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	18	1.0	2	0
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	46	41.4	1.74	1.208	5.0	23	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	45	37.9	4.99	1.557	15.7	66	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	17	1.0	0	1
Braydon Fisher	Middle Reliever	45	40.9	4.18	1.345	10.6	48	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	17	0.2	1	1

Game Summary

CHW wins 5-2

Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies

CIN 45-53 (4.22 RPG / 4.83 RA)

7 - 2

COL 40-61 (4.79 RPG / 5.68 RA)

WINNER: CIN wins 7-2 TARGET: CIN 7 - 2 COL (CIN) Confidence: 62.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	0	1	0	0	5	0	0	0	1	7	7
COL	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	9

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-2.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

COL Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-8.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

CIN Season Quality

Record44-53

Win%0.454

Run Diff-62

RD/Game-0.639

COL Season Quality

Record40-60

Win%0.400

Run Diff-87

RD/Game-0.870

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3112; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Elly De La Cruz	SS	77	308	88	0.286	16	45	0.357	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.287	0.348	0.535	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	96	366	94	0.257	19	67	0.339	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.249	0.321	0.436	OK
JJ Bleday	RF	68	244	60	0.246	16	43	0.352	5	3	0	1	1	1	1	0.000	0.254	0.350	0.493	OK
Spencer Steer	2B	91	322	81	0.252	16	40	0.329	4	4	1	1	3	0	3	0.250	0.279	0.339	0.495	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	DH	66	196	49	0.250	9	26	0.332	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.163	0.244	0.316	OK
Eugenio Suárez	3B	68	246	52	0.211	12	36	0.283	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.240	0.302	0.488	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	72	231	55	0.238	6	24	0.318	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.259	0.328	0.372	OK
TJ Friedl	LF	58	190	34	0.179	3	11	0.259	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.211	0.279	0.315	OK
Dane Myers	CF	53	119	30	0.252	3	14	0.348	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.138	0.239	0.239	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	33	7	7	7	5	9	0.212

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	CF	79	287	87	0.303	10	54	0.346	5	4	3	1	1	0	1	0.750	0.285	0.326	0.495	OK
Mickey Moniak	LF	62	214	59	0.276	15	40	0.317	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.257	0.288	0.441	OK
Hunter Goodman	C	91	342	86	0.251	27	51	0.321	5	5	3	1	1	0	0	0.600	0.258	0.326	0.441	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	94	341	104	0.305	13	50	0.385	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.299	0.376	0.468	OK
Willi Castro	SS	83	296	78	0.264	8	39	0.332	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.245	0.300	0.421	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	91	278	73	0.263	9	34	0.359	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.250	0.336	0.451	OK
Troy Johnston	DH	85	279	83	0.297	3	39	0.361	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.240	0.303	0.365	OK
Tyler Freeman	RF	64	223	58	0.260	3	23	0.335	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.143	0.179	0.204	OK
Edouard Julien	2B	76	211	46	0.218	3	20	0.329	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.218	0.325	0.373	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	36	9	2	2	1	9	0.250

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Hunter Greene	Starter	2	10.1	7.13	1.485	16.9	19	4.2	6	2	2	1	4	92	4.2	4	2
Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	17	15.4	6.43	1.494	9.4	16	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	29	25.5	2.47	1.020	9.2	26	1.1	2	0	0	0	2	23	1.1	2	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	48	38.9	3.47	1.620	9.3	40	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Caleb Ferguson	Middle Reliever	20	15.0	4.20	1.867	11.4	19	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Feltner	Starter	13	61.7	4.67	1.329	6.9	47	5.1	5	6	6	4	7	98	5.1	7	6
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	30	44.1	3.67	1.361	8.6	42	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.1	1	0
Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	39	36.7	6.62	1.853	10.8	44	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.1	0	0
Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	4	3.2	2.81	2.500	14.1	5	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.0	1	0
Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	25	23.1	4.68	1.472	10.5	27	0.0	1	1	1	1	0	16	0.0	0	1

Game Summary

CIN wins 7-2

Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels

DET 46-53 (4.22 RPG / 3.91 RA)

5 - 3

LAA 39-61 (4.34 RPG / 4.96 RA)

WINNER: DET wins 5-3 TARGET: DET 5 - 3 LAA (DET) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	3	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	11
LAA	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	6

DET Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed1.9

Run Diff20.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-6.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

DET Season Quality

Record45-52

Win%0.464

Run Diff25

RD/Game0.258

LAA Season Quality

Record38-60

Win%0.388

Run Diff-56

RD/Game-0.571

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9434; margin adjustment: -0.3962; applied: True

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kevin McGonigle	SS	94	354	100	0.282	8	34	0.391	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.257	0.349	0.406	OK
Dillon Dingler	DH	88	327	87	0.266	19	60	0.331	5	5	2	1	2	0	1	0.400	0.262	0.299	0.438	OK
Colt Keith	3B	87	256	65	0.254	8	23	0.302	5	5	3	1	1	0	1	0.600	0.281	0.322	0.476	OK
Riley Greene	LF	96	346	100	0.289	13	46	0.381	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.268	0.370	0.451	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	96	329	68	0.207	18	46	0.302	5	4	2	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.215	0.290	0.480	OK
Kerry Carpenter	RF	75	209	45	0.215	13	36	0.289	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.202	0.258	0.355	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	2B	54	153	39	0.255	4	17	0.288	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.270	0.300	0.418	OK
James Outman	CF	21	65	10	0.154	3	10	0.203	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.093	0.141	0.201	OK
Jake Rogers	C	31	86	15	0.174	3	9	0.270	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.232	0.327	0.443	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	38	11	5	5	4	9	0.289

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	96	379	89	0.235	19	45	0.325	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.226	0.294	0.381	OK
Mike Trout	CF	80	290	69	0.238	18	39	0.390	4	2	1	1	1	2	1	0.500	0.240	0.359	0.436	OK
Nolan Schanuel	1B	78	293	80	0.273	6	35	0.345	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.260	0.325	0.366	OK
Jorge Soler	DH	76	277	59	0.213	11	42	0.302	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.200	0.280	0.340	OK
Vaughn Grissom	3B	55	191	48	0.251	5	35	0.318	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.247	0.304	0.395	OK
Josh Lowe	LF	57	176	36	0.205	8	22	0.246	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.196	0.240	0.354	OK
Jo Adell	RF	98	380	91	0.239	13	53	0.285	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.199	0.227	0.332	OK
Oswald Peraza	2B	79	260	62	0.238	7	23	0.279	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.194	0.224	0.306	OK
Tyler Heineman	C	6	19	5	0.263	0	0	0.300	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.197	0.224	0.276	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	3	3	2	11	0.182

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Casey Mize	Starter	14	73.6	2.93	1.046	9.4	77	6.0	2	2	2	2	7	102	6.0	7	2
Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	26	21.8	4.13	1.239	10.3	25	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	27	1.0	2	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	40	38.0	1.89	1.553	7.6	32	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	40	35.0	3.86	1.600	9.0	35	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Johnson	Starter	9	33.1	6.80	1.511	6.8	25	4.2	9	5	5	4	7	102	4.2	7	5
Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	39	40.8	4.19	1.324	13.9	63	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	24	19.8	3.64	1.111	12.7	28	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	36	37.9	4.51	1.425	10.7	45	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	12	12.3	3.66	1.220	16.1	22	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	1.0	1	0
Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever	42	28.9	3.74	1.730	14.0	45	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	15	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

DET wins 5-3

Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees

LAD 63-36 (5.21 RPG / 3.64 RA)

2 - 3

NYY 54-44 (4.74 RPG / 3.89 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 3-2 TARGET: LAD 2 - 3 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	6
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	3	10

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.3

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff-9.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff1.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

LAD Season Quality

Record62-36

Win%0.633

Run Diff150

RD/Game1.531

NYY Season Quality

Record54-43

Win%0.557

Run Diff90

RD/Game0.928

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.7167; margin adjustment: -0.301; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	89	339	98	0.289	22	58	0.400	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.258	0.354	0.519	OK
Andy Pages	CF	96	371	100	0.270	17	66	0.335	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.266	0.333	0.439	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	95	359	103	0.287	15	49	0.371	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.246	0.317	0.404	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	60	241	56	0.232	11	31	0.290	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.219	0.278	0.346	OK
Max Muncy	3B	89	296	77	0.260	18	42	0.356	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.235	0.329	0.443	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	90	332	81	0.244	7	47	0.332	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.229	0.305	0.346	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	63	225	55	0.244	8	36	0.316	4	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.204	0.274	0.324	OK
Dalton Rushing	C	59	184	46	0.250	10	30	0.325	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.233	0.295	0.406	OK
Tommy Edman	2B	20	70	24	0.343	1	11	0.410	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.259	0.323	0.411	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	6	2	2	1	6	0.188

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trent Grisham	CF	75	261	61	0.234	10	40	0.337	5	4	2	0	0	1	1	0.500	0.234	0.334	0.411	OK
Ben Rice	1B	91	341	96	0.282	29	67	0.374	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0.400	0.287	0.372	0.610	OK
Jasson Domínguez	DH	36	136	32	0.235	5	11	0.273	5	4	1	1	1	1	2	0.250	0.243	0.275	0.415	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	95	351	89	0.254	11	51	0.344	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.261	0.340	0.398	OK
Max Schuemann	RF	23	54	13	0.241	2	6	0.369	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.148	0.244	0.304	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	91	323	72	0.223	13	37	0.296	5	4	2	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.221	0.290	0.383	OK
Anthony Volpe	SS	44	138	34	0.246	1	13	0.342	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.243	0.331	0.338	OK
Ryan McMahon	3B	72	209	45	0.215	9	26	0.274	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.226	0.285	0.414	OK
Ali Sánchez	C	15	32	8	0.250	0	4	0.286	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.203	0.230	0.324	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	36	10	3	3	6	9	0.278

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Starter	17	109.5	2.88	0.922	8.7	106	6.2	4	2	2	5	8	116	6.2	8	2
Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	42	37.1	2.67	0.809	12.4	51	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	14	0.2	0	1
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	43	25.2	2.86	1.548	16.1	45	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	16	0.2	1	0
Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	3	3.0	6.00	1.333	12.0	4	0.0	1	0	0	1	0	16	0.0	0	0
Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever	10	9.2	2.93	1.087	9.8	10	0.0	3	0	0	0	0	16	0.0	0	0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cam Schlittler	Starter	20	116.1	2.09	0.965	10.6	137	6.0	3	1	1	1	6	92	6.0	6	1
David Bednar	Middle Reliever	37	37.9	2.85	1.161	10.7	45	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	15	1.1	0	1
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	45	29.8	3.02	1.678	15.4	51	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	48	38.0	1.89	1.447	12.8	54	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	16	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 3-2

Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees

LAD 63-36 (5.21 RPG / 3.64 RA)

4 - 3

NYY 54-44 (4.74 RPG / 3.89 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 4-3 TARGET: LAD 4 - 3 NYY (LAD) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	8
NYY	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	5

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.3

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff-9.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff1.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

LAD Season Quality

Record62-36

Win%0.633

Run Diff150

RD/Game1.531

NYY Season Quality

Record54-43

Win%0.557

Run Diff90

RD/Game0.928

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.7167; margin adjustment: -0.301; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	89	339	98	0.289	22	58	0.400	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	0.250	0.258	0.354	0.519	OK
Andy Pages	CF	96	371	100	0.270	17	66	0.335	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.266	0.333	0.438	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	95	359	103	0.287	15	49	0.371	5	5	2	1	0	0	2	0.400	0.245	0.317	0.403	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	60	241	56	0.232	11	31	0.290	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	0.667	0.219	0.278	0.345	OK
Max Muncy	3B	89	296	77	0.260	18	42	0.356	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.235	0.329	0.443	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	90	332	81	0.244	7	47	0.332	4	2	0	1	1	1	1	0.000	0.228	0.305	0.345	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	63	225	55	0.244	8	36	0.316	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.204	0.274	0.324	OK
Dalton Rushing	C	59	184	46	0.250	10	30	0.325	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.233	0.294	0.406	OK
Tommy Edman	2B	20	70	24	0.343	1	11	0.410	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.258	0.323	0.410	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	34	8	4	4	4	10	0.235

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trent Grisham	CF	75	261	61	0.234	10	40	0.337	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.234	0.333	0.411	OK
Ben Rice	1B	91	341	96	0.282	29	67	0.374	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.286	0.372	0.609	OK
Jasson Domínguez	DH	36	136	32	0.235	5	11	0.273	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.243	0.275	0.415	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	95	351	89	0.254	11	51	0.344	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.261	0.340	0.398	OK
Max Schuemann	RF	23	54	13	0.241	2	6	0.369	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.148	0.244	0.304	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	91	323	72	0.223	13	37	0.296	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.221	0.290	0.383	OK
Anthony Volpe	SS	44	138	34	0.246	1	13	0.342	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.243	0.331	0.338	OK
Ryan McMahon	3B	72	209	45	0.215	9	26	0.274	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.226	0.285	0.414	OK
Ali Sánchez	C	15	32	8	0.250	0	4	0.286	3	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.203	0.230	0.324	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	5	3	3	3	10	0.156

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Will Klein	Starter	32	32.9	2.74	1.550	11.8	43	5.0	4	2	2	3	6	87	5.0	6	2
Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	42	37.1	2.67	0.809	12.4	51	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	43	25.2	2.86	1.548	16.1	45	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	3	3.0	6.00	1.333	12.0	4	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	24	1.2	1	1

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Yarbrough	Starter	24	33.5	4.57	1.343	7.3	27	4.1	5	3	3	3	5	94	4.1	5	3
David Bednar	Middle Reliever	37	37.9	2.85	1.161	10.7	45	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	26	1.1	0	0
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	45	29.8	3.02	1.678	15.4	51	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	48	38.0	1.89	1.447	12.8	54	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	19	1.0	2	1
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever	33	45.0	2.40	1.200	7.4	37	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 4-3

Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers

MIA 52-48 (4.47 RPG / 4.28 RA)

2 - 4

MIL 62-37 (5.07 RPG / 3.75 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 4-2 TARGET: MIA 2 - 4 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIA	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	6
MIL	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	x	4	9

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff0.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff0.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

MIA Season Quality

Record52-47

Win%0.525

Run Diff21

RD/Game0.212

MIL Season Quality

Record61-37

Win%0.622

Run Diff129

RD/Game1.316

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.25; margin adjustment: 0.525; applied: True

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Xavier Edwards	2B	98	361	108	0.299	6	37	0.380	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.261	0.336	0.363	OK
Heriberto Hernández	LF	67	211	49	0.232	13	36	0.303	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.236	0.305	0.475	OK
Kyle Stowers	1B	74	276	64	0.232	12	42	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.207	0.270	0.395	OK
Javier Sanoja	SS	70	235	64	0.272	3	34	0.304	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.241	0.270	0.373	OK
Liam Hicks	C	87	304	88	0.289	13	58	0.364	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.279	0.346	0.392	OK
Leo Jiménez	3B	39	111	24	0.216	2	9	0.302	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.156	0.230	0.269	OK
Griffin Conine	DH	30	83	23	0.277	7	16	0.362	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.176	0.253	0.411	OK
Esteury Ruiz	RF	43	98	24	0.245	4	9	0.306	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.202	0.250	0.375	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	94	329	64	0.195	5	25	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.207	0.312	0.305	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	6	2	2	3	9	0.182

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Christian Yelich	DH	63	245	59	0.241	6	33	0.332	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.240	0.323	0.374	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	64	269	75	0.279	13	39	0.334	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.238	0.293	0.389	OK
Brice Turang	2B	91	357	95	0.266	14	60	0.361	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.246	0.342	0.465	OK
Andrew Vaughn	1B	54	149	46	0.309	2	24	0.388	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.239	0.311	0.395	OK
Jake Bauers	RF	87	300	79	0.263	18	59	0.368	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.236	0.352	0.450	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	83	275	77	0.280	7	41	0.362	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.294	0.368	0.462	OK
Gary Sánchez	C	52	141	31	0.220	8	25	0.369	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.239	0.393	0.414	OK
Braden Shewmake	3B	2	5	2	0.400	0	1	0.333	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.151	0.178	0.273	OK
Joey Ortiz	SS	74	219	50	0.228	4	23	0.295	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.237	0.306	0.378	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	9	4	4	3	7	0.273

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eury Pérez	Starter	16	84.5	3.83	1.160	10.1	95	5.1	7	4	4	3	4	103	5.1	4	4
Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	32	28.6	6.92	1.503	12.6	40	1.1	2	0	0	0	2	23	1.1	2	0
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	40	37.8	3.33	1.138	11.9	50	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Robert Gasser	Starter	9	44.7	5.44	1.320	8.7	43	5.1	6	2	2	2	6	95	5.1	6	2
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	38	38.0	1.89	0.895	11.4	48	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	41	37.4	2.65	1.123	9.4	39	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	46	51.3	3.86	1.579	13.5	77	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	19	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

MIL wins 4-2

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs

MIN 49-51 (4.79 RPG / 5.03 RA)

3 - 5

CHC 56-43 (5.07 RPG / 4.44 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 5-3 TARGET: MIN 3 - 5 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	9
CHC	0	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	x	5	7

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.5

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff13.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed3.0

Run Diff13.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIN Season Quality

Record49-50

Win%0.495

Run Diff-15

RD/Game-0.152

CHC Season Quality

Record55-43

Win%0.561

Run Diff53

RD/Game0.541

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7917; margin adjustment: 0.3325; applied: True

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Austin Martin	LF	74	233	57	0.245	2	20	0.341	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.248	0.337	0.337	OK
Ryan Jeffers	C	39	137	40	0.292	8	31	0.395	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.267	0.364	0.516	OK
Josh Bell	DH	96	351	87	0.248	13	60	0.305	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.333	0.252	0.302	0.424	OK
Royce Lewis	2B	64	232	50	0.216	10	29	0.292	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.235	0.301	0.438	OK
Victor Caratini	1B	70	225	54	0.240	7	35	0.330	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.251	0.322	0.376	OK
Kody Clemens	RF	84	309	75	0.243	18	48	0.302	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.147	0.203	0.349	OK
Luke Keaschall	CF	92	312	82	0.263	4	28	0.349	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.289	0.356	0.394	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	92	349	87	0.249	14	50	0.306	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.236	0.299	0.371	OK
Ryan Kreidler	SS	49	134	34	0.254	5	24	0.310	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.225	0.278	0.362	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	36	9	3	3	2	8	0.250

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	97	362	104	0.287	21	53	0.384	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.238	0.332	0.421	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	82	309	84	0.272	15	48	0.352	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.269	0.341	0.434	OK
Michael Busch	1B	96	351	85	0.242	12	51	0.371	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.259	0.359	0.433	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	95	373	89	0.239	9	41	0.336	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.228	0.311	0.393	OK
Ian Happ	LF	92	343	76	0.222	17	42	0.332	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.225	0.331	0.380	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	95	380	93	0.245	4	39	0.311	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.258	0.313	0.346	OK
Pedro Ramirez	DH	25	60	16	0.267	1	9	0.318	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.172	0.241	0.336	OK
Carson Kelly	C	68	224	60	0.268	6	31	0.354	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.228	0.308	0.376	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	92	316	67	0.212	16	58	0.293	3	2	1	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.211	0.281	0.368	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	30	7	5	5	2	8	0.233

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zebby Matthews	Starter	11	66.3	4.62	1.237	7.3	54	6.0	5	4	4	0	5	100	6.0	5	4
Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	31	23.6	1.91	1.144	9.9	26	0.2	2	1	1	2	1	22	0.2	1	1
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	36	40.7	3.76	1.425	10.6	48	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shota Imanaga	Starter	19	105.9	4.25	1.143	8.9	105	5.2	6	1	1	1	5	105	5.2	5	1
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	43	37.9	3.32	1.478	11.6	49	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	26	27.9	2.58	1.075	4.2	13	1.0	1	2	2	1	1	20	1.0	1	2
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	32	23.3	5.02	1.502	14.3	37	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	23	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

CHC wins 5-3

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

NYM 42-58 (4.09 RPG / 4.71 RA)

5 - 3

PHI 55-45 (4.32 RPG / 4.45 RA)

WINNER: NYM wins 5-3 TARGET: NYM 5 - 3 PHI (NYM) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	5	5
PHI	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	3	8

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff-3.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.0

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff-16.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

NYM Season Quality

Record41-58

Win%0.414

Run Diff-67

RD/Game-0.677

PHI Season Quality

Record55-44

Win%0.556

Run Diff-8

RD/Game-0.081

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8081; margin adjustment: 0.3394; applied: True

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
A.J. Ewing	CF	59	204	56	0.275	7	25	0.346	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.257	0.315	0.416	OK
Juan Soto	DH	79	278	81	0.291	21	51	0.409	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.239	0.366	0.437	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	96	384	96	0.250	10	51	0.293	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.217	0.259	0.311	OK
Francisco Lindor	SS	41	161	33	0.205	5	12	0.285	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.204	0.268	0.354	OK
Carson Benge	LF	94	360	94	0.261	11	37	0.323	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.231	0.290	0.348	OK
Jared Young	1B	49	143	35	0.245	6	17	0.321	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.170	0.241	0.297	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	80	290	62	0.214	9	29	0.271	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.196	0.254	0.301	OK
Brett Baty	RF	88	290	66	0.228	5	32	0.296	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.235	0.295	0.396	OK
Luis Torrens	C	55	162	35	0.216	2	18	0.274	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.134	0.188	0.232	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	5	5	5	3	13	0.156

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trea Turner	SS	93	390	95	0.244	12	35	0.289	5	5	2	1	1	0	2	0.400	0.242	0.292	0.406	OK
Kyle Schwarber	DH	93	355	90	0.254	32	60	0.364	5	3	0	0	0	2	2	0.000	0.244	0.343	0.486	OK
Bryce Harper	1B	97	345	90	0.261	20	59	0.368	5	4	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.241	0.347	0.412	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	92	343	101	0.294	15	46	0.334	5	5	2	1	0	0	3	0.400	0.224	0.275	0.354	OK
Alec Bohm	3B	93	348	75	0.216	11	47	0.277	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.207	0.255	0.308	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	92	324	80	0.247	7	41	0.305	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.254	0.308	0.401	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	68	234	50	0.214	7	33	0.293	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.252	0.310	0.401	OK
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	RF	22	70	12	0.171	2	6	0.203	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.201	0.226	0.332	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	87	266	67	0.252	2	20	0.302	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.257	0.301	0.369	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	35	8	3	3	6	14	0.229

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nolan McLean	Starter	19	105.7	3.58	1.135	10.6	125	6.0	7	3	3	4	9	119	6.0	9	3
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	35	30.1	4.49	1.661	13.5	45	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	21	1.0	1	0
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	38	37.9	2.14	0.871	10.2	43	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	40	30.3	2.38	1.353	11.0	37	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	12	0.2	1	0
Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	40	39.9	3.16	1.253	9.9	44	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	19	0.1	1	0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Alan Rangel	Starter	5	19.1	4.24	1.414	10.4	22	5.0	2	1	1	2	9	89	5.0	9	1
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	33	32.2	0.84	0.839	14.0	50	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	21	1.1	2	0
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	40	34.5	2.61	1.246	11.0	42	1.2	2	2	2	0	0	39	1.2	0	2
Jonathan Bowlan	Middle Reliever	34	27.7	3.25	1.227	12.3	38	1.0	1	2	2	1	2	20	1.0	2	2

Game Summary

NYM wins 5-3

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians

PIT 52-48 (5.33 RPG / 4.79 RA)

6 - 2

CLE 52-48 (3.92 RPG / 4.04 RA)

WINNER: PIT wins 6-2 TARGET: PIT 6 - 2 CLE (PIT) Confidence: 63.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	0	6	10
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	6

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs6.7

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff25.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed2.5

Run Diff10.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

PIT Season Quality

Record51-48

Win%0.515

Run Diff48

RD/Game0.485

CLE Season Quality

Record52-47

Win%0.525

Run Diff-6

RD/Game-0.061

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5303; margin adjustment: -0.2227; applied: True

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake Mangum	LF	69	239	72	0.301	2	19	0.349	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.280	0.316	0.409	OK
Jared Triolo	3B	60	196	46	0.235	1	16	0.302	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.239	0.290	0.334	OK
Bryan Reynolds	DH	99	357	102	0.286	14	59	0.402	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.284	0.383	0.477	OK
Esmerlyn Valdez	RF	30	102	31	0.304	11	30	0.363	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.273	0.333	0.637	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	1B	82	312	88	0.282	16	64	0.342	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.250	0.312	0.422	OK
Nick Gonzales	2B	92	346	107	0.309	5	44	0.368	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.287	0.342	0.420	OK
Jacob Gonzalez	SS	3	6	2	0.333	1	2	0.333	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.260	0.314	0.438	OK
Henry Davis	C	54	167	28	0.168	8	27	0.263	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.205	0.284	0.366	OK
Billy Cook	CF	18	35	6	0.171	0	0	0.171	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.144	0.153	0.221	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	37	10	6	6	2	5	0.270

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	LF	88	302	72	0.238	1	16	0.339	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.290	0.370	0.374	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	67	251	61	0.243	8	31	0.337	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.227	0.312	0.399	OK
Chase DeLauter	DH	80	304	85	0.280	11	47	0.342	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.261	0.324	0.463	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	95	326	89	0.273	8	44	0.335	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.261	0.304	0.403	OK
Kyle Manzardo	1B	88	276	58	0.210	10	30	0.302	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.200	0.276	0.309	OK
Kahlil Watson	RF	25	83	19	0.229	1	11	0.256	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.235	0.262	0.342	OK
Gabriel Arias	3B	29	94	22	0.234	5	10	0.265	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.239	0.270	0.400	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	34	101	22	0.218	2	10	0.259	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.216	0.263	0.351	OK
Petey Halpin	CF	27	64	12	0.188	0	1	0.212	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.130	0.162	0.230	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	6	2	2	1	7	0.182

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Paul Skenes	Starter	20	106.7	3.63	1.040	11.0	130	5.2	3	0	0	1	6	98	5.2	6	0
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	40	38.1	3.54	1.076	10.9	46	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1
Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	38	31.7	4.26	1.483	15.9	56	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	41	47.2	3.62	1.504	11.2	59	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	8	1.1	0	1

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Joey Cantillo	Starter	20	98.9	3.64	1.426	9.6	105	5.1	6	4	4	2	3	93	5.1	3	4
Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	43	43.0	2.93	1.140	13.6	65	1.0	4	2	2	0	1	21	1.0	1	2
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	35	26.0	2.77	1.423	10.0	29	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	35	31.2	1.73	0.897	11.5	40	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Shawn Armstrong	Middle Reliever	33	25.3	3.20	1.423	11.0	31	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	16	0.2	1	0

Game Summary

PIT wins 6-2

San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals

SD 49-50 (4.09 RPG / 4.41 RA)

3 - 5

KC 40-60 (4.26 RPG / 5.25 RA)

WINNER: KC wins 5-3 TARGET: SD 3 - 5 KC (KC) Confidence: 62.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	9
KC	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	x	5	8

SD Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff-6.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

KC Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.7

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff8.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SD Season Quality

Record48-50

Win%0.490

Run Diff-49

RD/Game-0.500

KC Season Quality

Record40-59

Win%0.404

Run Diff-82

RD/Game-0.828

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4569; margin adjustment: -0.1919; applied: True

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	96	379	107	0.282	6	36	0.348	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.263	0.328	0.398	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	94	369	79	0.214	10	38	0.271	5	5	1	1	2	0	1	0.200	0.215	0.271	0.318	OK
Manny Machado	3B	95	347	69	0.199	19	55	0.289	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.234	0.318	0.394	OK
Ty France	1B	66	212	58	0.274	12	34	0.332	5	5	2	0	0	0	1	0.400	0.297	0.340	0.561	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	93	324	72	0.222	9	38	0.315	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.215	0.307	0.332	OK
Miguel Andujar	DH	71	235	62	0.264	5	22	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.275	0.304	0.465	OK
Luis Rengifo	2B	1	2	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.138	0.220	0.204
Jase Bowen	LF	18	42	5	0.119	0	1	0.159	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.169	0.208	0.260	OK
Luis Campusano	C	27	72	21	0.292	4	11	0.393	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.262	0.366	0.489	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	9	3	3	4	9	0.250

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	DH	89	316	78	0.247	13	51	0.315	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.235	0.307	0.389	OK
Nick Loftin	2B	59	183	44	0.240	4	29	0.324	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.241	0.303	0.391	OK
Jac Caglianone	RF	91	324	83	0.256	15	36	0.314	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.173	0.220	0.323	OK
Lane Thomas	CF	79	239	58	0.243	9	33	0.338	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.276	0.358	0.520	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	85	271	65	0.240	5	30	0.344	4	3	3	1	3	1	0	1.000	0.254	0.336	0.415	OK
Salvador Perez	1B	90	352	75	0.213	12	39	0.256	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.230	0.261	0.392	OK
Josh Rojas	3B	15	35	7	0.200	1	5	0.200	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.136	0.146	0.250	OK
Tyler Tolbert	SS	22	54	20	0.370	2	5	0.407	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.207	0.257	0.320	OK
Luke Maile	C	2	6	1	0.167	1	3	0.286	4	3	0	1	1	0	3	0.000	0.225	0.324	0.392	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	31	8	5	5	5	9	0.258

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Germán Márquez	Starter	9	41.2	5.24	1.505	6.1	28	4.2	7	5	5	3	4	92	4.2	4	5
Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	39	38.1	0.94	0.892	17.7	75	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	21	1.0	1	0
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	45	45.0	4.00	1.289	11.8	59	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	19	1.0	2	0
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	38	35.5	2.54	1.324	9.6	38	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Kyle Hart	Middle Reliever	24	30.5	6.49	1.279	8.3	28	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.0	0	0
Yuki Matsui	Middle Reliever	25	28.1	3.20	1.566	11.2	35	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	8	0.1	1	0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Noah Cameron	Starter	18	93.8	4.99	1.450	8.7	91	5.0	6	3	3	3	3	109	5.0	3	3
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	38	35.5	6.59	1.662	9.4	37	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	20	1.0	1	0
Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	40	35.9	2.51	1.058	8.3	33	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	16	1.0	3	0
Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	38	35.9	4.76	1.588	6.8	27	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	41	31.5	4.00	1.524	8.0	28	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

KC wins 5-3

San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners

SF 43-57 (4.15 RPG / 4.71 RA)

3 - 4

SEA 50-50 (4.02 RPG / 3.89 RA)

WINNER: SEA wins 4-3 TARGET: SF 3 - 4 SEA (SEA) Confidence: 62.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	6
SEA	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	6

SF Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.5

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff8.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-1.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SF Season Quality

Record43-55

Win%0.439

Run Diff-52

RD/Game-0.531

SEA Season Quality

Record48-50

Win%0.490

Run Diff9

RD/Game0.092

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.699; margin adjustment: 0.2936; applied: True

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Luis Arraez	2B	93	368	123	0.334	4	34	0.374	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.283	0.332	0.397	OK
Bryce Eldridge	DH	57	198	55	0.278	9	23	0.371	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.252	0.343	0.441	OK
Casey Schmitt	3B	89	356	99	0.278	19	49	0.308	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.253	0.279	0.442	OK
Rafael Devers	1B	98	372	92	0.247	20	53	0.318	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.232	0.307	0.473	OK
Heliot Ramos	LF	59	227	61	0.269	8	28	0.301	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.258	0.289	0.427	OK
Jung Hoo Lee	RF	89	335	103	0.307	5	33	0.340	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.252	0.279	0.365	OK
Willy Adames	SS	93	364	84	0.231	17	42	0.279	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.225	0.275	0.434	OK
Grant McCray	CF	1	1	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.109	0.122	0.180
Drew Cavanaugh	C	13	34	9	0.265	0	2	0.390	3	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.253	0.377	0.320	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	6	3	3	1	8	0.182

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
J.P. Crawford	3B	81	290	62	0.214	10	28	0.334	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.227	0.333	0.346	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	87	348	89	0.256	14	41	0.317	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.268	0.319	0.383	OK
Cole Young	2B	99	355	90	0.254	12	46	0.313	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.242	0.285	0.435	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	91	331	93	0.281	11	45	0.377	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.249	0.323	0.435	OK
Cal Raleigh	DH	67	248	41	0.165	9	29	0.271	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.191	0.293	0.308	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	92	359	90	0.251	8	36	0.316	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.243	0.308	0.331	OK
Mitch Garver	C	40	110	20	0.182	4	14	0.308	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.201	0.310	0.355	OK
Weston Wilson	RF	7	18	3	0.167	1	3	0.167	3	3	1	0	0	0	2	0.333	0.199	0.265	0.335	OK
Colt Emerson	SS	47	150	29	0.193	7	20	0.265	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.183	0.245	0.308	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	30	6	4	4	3	4	0.200

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Robbie Ray	Starter	19	104.1	3.46	1.297	7.8	90	6.0	3	2	2	2	4	94	6.0	4	2
Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	38	34.1	4.49	1.437	12.7	48	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	0.0	0	0
Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	32	23.9	3.39	1.590	15.1	40	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	30	43.5	3.10	1.218	6.8	33	1.0	1	2	2	1	0	5	1.0	0	2

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Logan Gilbert	Starter	19	111.2	3.40	1.016	9.6	119	6.2	5	3	3	1	7	103	6.2	7	3
Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	37	33.7	3.74	1.246	14.2	53	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	45	36.1	3.24	1.524	8.7	35	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	45	35.8	2.77	1.453	10.3	41	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	7	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

SEA wins 4-3

St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks

STL 51-46 (4.51 RPG / 4.45 RA)

2 - 5

ARI 50-48 (4.34 RPG / 4.46 RA)

WINNER: ARI wins 5-2 TARGET: STL 2 - 5 ARI (ARI) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	5
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	x	5	7

STL Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.2

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-7.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.900

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed0.4

Run Diff33.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

STL Season Quality

Record51-46

Win%0.526

Run Diff5

RD/Game0.052

ARI Season Quality

Record50-48

Win%0.510

Run Diff-12

RD/Game-0.122

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1973; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	90	355	94	0.265	14	36	0.360	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.239	0.310	0.373	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	96	352	84	0.239	11	40	0.367	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.211	0.289	0.319	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	94	360	106	0.294	21	72	0.356	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.265	0.324	0.440	OK
Nelson Velázquez	LF	23	57	14	0.246	4	12	0.312	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.242	0.299	0.472	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	95	363	99	0.273	15	66	0.336	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.242	0.302	0.405	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	86	317	78	0.246	4	42	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.235	0.306	0.324	OK
José Fermín	CF	60	165	43	0.261	4	20	0.309	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.236	0.291	0.357	OK
Blaze Jordan	3B	23	76	18	0.237	1	14	0.253	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.221	0.251	0.351	OK
Pedro Pagés	C	49	148	31	0.209	4	11	0.247	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.186	0.217	0.286	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	5	2	2	3	9	0.156

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ryan Waldschmidt	CF	32	112	29	0.259	0	8	0.314	5	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.155	0.208	0.278	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	75	257	61	0.237	4	27	0.354	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.221	0.344	0.329	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	73	297	78	0.263	12	46	0.315	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.274	0.326	0.456	OK
Ildemaro Vargas	1B	62	230	60	0.261	7	37	0.299	4	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.199	0.254	0.310	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	51	174	48	0.276	6	25	0.358	4	3	1	1	3	1	1	0.333	0.280	0.356	0.463	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	73	247	59	0.239	8	32	0.315	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.231	0.292	0.343	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	75	278	79	0.284	13	42	0.372	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.280	0.358	0.543	OK
Max Kepler	LF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.244	0.309	0.403
Tim Tawa	LF	14	36	5	0.139	0	2	0.238	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.206	0.297	0.322	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	30	7	5	5	5	8	0.233

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andre Pallante	Starter	18	97.9	4.04	1.287	6.6	72	6.0	3	2	2	4	5	113	6.0	5	2
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	40	38.7	3.49	1.189	9.3	40	1.0	3	3	3	1	1	26	1.0	1	3
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	42	35.5	3.80	1.268	9.1	36	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	17	1.0	2	0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	15	86.7	2.49	1.257	6.7	65	6.2	3	1	1	2	8	101	6.2	8	1
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1	1.0	9.00	2.000	0.0	0	0.1	0	1	1	0	1	11	0.1	1	1
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	2	2.1	0.00	0.476	8.6	2	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	20	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

ARI wins 5-2

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox

TB 56-42 (4.44 RPG / 4.3 RA)

4 - 5

BOS 50-48 (4.21 RPG / 3.76 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 5-4 TARGET: TB 4 - 5 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	4	4
BOS	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	3	x	5	9

TB Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed5.2

Run Diff-15.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.3

Avg Allowed1.8

Run Diff35.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak

TB Season Quality

Record56-41

Win%0.577

Run Diff19

RD/Game0.196

BOS Season Quality

Record49-48

Win%0.505

Run Diff40

RD/Game0.412

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1082; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	93	356	112	0.315	13	56	0.393	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.252	0.315	0.382	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	96	348	101	0.290	14	64	0.388	4	2	1	1	0	1	0	0.500	0.257	0.339	0.430	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	97	367	103	0.281	29	60	0.371	4	4	2	1	4	0	0	0.500	0.245	0.333	0.468	OK
Cedric Mullins	CF	82	283	57	0.201	11	30	0.281	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.182	0.249	0.308	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	87	337	94	0.279	0	17	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.171	0.205	0.255	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	30	93	20	0.215	6	13	0.302	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.234	0.315	0.456	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	68	201	48	0.239	3	27	0.336	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.150	0.252	0.285	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	73	231	50	0.216	0	21	0.311	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.188	0.272	0.283	OK
Hunter Feduccia	C	49	123	28	0.228	2	10	0.294	3	3	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.142	0.208	0.256	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	4	4	4	2	6	0.129

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jahmai Jones	DH	2	2	1	0.500	1	2	0.500	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.119	0.180	0.249	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	91	355	99	0.279	8	41	0.325	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.251	0.283	0.410	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	95	364	97	0.266	15	49	0.338	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.256	0.330	0.542	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	88	318	90	0.283	21	62	0.377	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.266	0.343	0.544	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	88	297	70	0.236	9	40	0.300	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.271	0.325	0.405	OK
Romy Gonzalez	2B	13	45	9	0.200	1	5	0.294	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.213	0.277	0.357	OK
Andruw Monasterio	SS	55	160	38	0.238	5	16	0.287	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.172	0.235	0.381	OK
Jarren Duran	LF	90	350	67	0.191	13	48	0.254	4	3	1	1	3	1	0	0.333	0.196	0.251	0.321	OK
Connor Wong	C	40	113	32	0.283	1	15	0.383	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.171	0.277	0.270	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	9	5	5	3	7	0.273

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shane McClanahan	Starter	17	83.9	2.90	1.156	8.8	82	5.2	7	2	2	1	5	107	5.2	5	2
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	38	35.4	1.78	0.847	10.4	41	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	42	39.8	2.71	1.055	7.7	34	1.1	1	3	3	2	1	28	1.1	1	3

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sonny Gray	Starter	17	94.5	2.57	1.111	8.1	85	6.1	3	3	3	1	6	101	6.1	6	3
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	31	30.2	1.19	1.093	11.3	38	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	36	34.3	2.10	0.933	10.0	38	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	20	1.0	0	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	27	18.9	6.67	1.852	15.2	32	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	13	0.2	0	1

Game Summary

BOS wins 5-4

Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves

TEX 50-49 (4.16 RPG / 4.47 RA)

2 - 5

ATL 57-42 (4.96 RPG / 3.92 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 5-2 TARGET: TEX 2 - 5 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	3
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	x	5	8

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed6.6

Run Diff-27.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.6

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff7.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TEX Season Quality

Record50-48

Win%0.510

Run Diff-28

RD/Game-0.286

ATL Season Quality

Record56-42

Win%0.571

Run Diff100

RD/Game1.020

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.398; margin adjustment: 0.5871; applied: True

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Joc Pederson	DH	88	255	61	0.239	16	35	0.334	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.167	0.266	0.364	OK
Wyatt Langford	LF	46	186	51	0.274	9	23	0.322	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.249	0.293	0.432	OK
Josh Jung	3B	89	345	102	0.296	9	34	0.364	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.261	0.328	0.406	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	92	354	94	0.266	9	37	0.332	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.266	0.313	0.433	OK
Jake Burger	1B	94	347	82	0.236	16	58	0.299	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.203	0.257	0.363	OK
Ezequiel Duran	SS	87	302	81	0.268	10	50	0.325	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.160	0.242	0.343	OK
Evan Carter	CF	79	228	44	0.193	8	24	0.302	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.154	0.259	0.285	OK
Nicky Lopez	2B	40	118	37	0.314	1	13	0.347	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.162	0.192	0.223	OK
Kyle Higashioka	C	51	161	35	0.217	7	17	0.304	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.128	0.213	0.254	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	30	3	2	2	4	10	0.100

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drake Baldwin	C	75	289	77	0.266	17	53	0.355	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.278	0.352	0.451	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	98	376	100	0.266	14	53	0.318	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.235	0.289	0.364	OK
Matt Olson	1B	98	380	101	0.266	26	59	0.340	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.241	0.313	0.477	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	91	346	104	0.301	17	57	0.330	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.268	0.293	0.453	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	94	353	96	0.272	10	54	0.324	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.256	0.297	0.411	OK
Dominic Smith	DH	74	213	56	0.263	6	33	0.307	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.240	0.311	0.349	OK
Austin Riley	3B	98	352	74	0.210	10	43	0.291	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.236	0.301	0.383	OK
Jim Jarvis	SS	12	38	12	0.316	1	4	0.350	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.273	0.296	0.444	OK
Brewer Hicklen	RF	2	8	3	0.375	0	1	0.444	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.245	0.324	0.540	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	8	5	5	4	6	0.250

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nathan Eovaldi	Starter	18	110.4	4.08	1.187	9.8	120	6.1	4	0	0	2	5	100	6.1	5	0
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	35	43.2	1.04	0.602	9.8	47	1.1	2	4	4	2	1	24	1.1	1	4
Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	27	29.7	3.94	1.380	11.2	37	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	18	0.1	0	1
Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	36	28.2	7.02	1.560	10.5	33	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	0.0	0	0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Grant Holmes	Starter	19	87.0	3.93	1.402	8.1	78	4.1	3	2	2	2	7	86	4.1	7	2
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	32	32.4	2.22	1.080	10.3	37	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	45	37.6	1.91	0.824	12.9	54	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	39	29.8	4.83	1.443	10.6	35	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	14	0.2	1	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	32	34.6	2.86	1.301	12.0	46	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	22	1.2	2	0

Game Summary

ATL wins 5-2

Washington Nationals @ Oakland Athletics

WAS 50-50 (5.45 RPG / 5.3 RA)

5 - 1

OAK 42-57 (4.47 RPG / 5.63 RA)

WINNER: WAS wins 5-1 TARGET: WAS 5 - 1 OAK (WAS) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
WAS	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	7
OAK	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	9

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs5.7

Avg Allowed6.6

Run Diff-9.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.100

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed7.4

Run Diff-39.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

WAS Season Quality

Record49-49

Win%0.500

Run Diff26

RD/Game0.265

OAK Season Quality

Record41-56

Win%0.423

Run Diff-125

RD/Game-1.289

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.6699; margin adjustment: -0.7014; applied: True

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	DH	99	378	104	0.275	28	66	0.405	5	5	1	1	0	0	3	0.200	0.293	0.412	0.626	OK
Andrés Chaparro	1B	26	59	13	0.220	3	15	0.313	5	2	0	0	0	3	0	0.000	0.274	0.347	0.529	OK
Curtis Mead	3B	82	267	68	0.255	17	47	0.345	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.219	0.300	0.450	OK
CJ Abrams	SS	95	354	97	0.274	20	68	0.349	5	4	1	1	0	1	3	0.250	0.267	0.323	0.457	OK
Dylan Crews	RF	48	183	38	0.208	6	19	0.271	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.200	0.250	0.320	OK
Jacob Young	CF	79	272	61	0.224	8	32	0.277	5	5	2	1	4	0	2	0.400	0.245	0.307	0.392	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	97	379	94	0.248	11	48	0.300	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.236	0.281	0.402	OK
Nasim Nuñez	2B	85	272	67	0.246	1	28	0.331	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.256	0.340	0.337	OK
Harry Ford	C	1	5	2	0.400	1	3	0.500	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.231	0.351	0.383	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	34	7	5	5	7	14	0.206

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jacob Wilson	SS	58	233	67	0.288	5	28	0.318	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	0.250	0.282	0.310	0.413	OK
Tyler Soderstrom	LF	86	306	75	0.245	16	46	0.346	5	4	2	0	0	1	2	0.500	0.243	0.328	0.528	OK
Shea Langeliers	DH	88	357	92	0.258	22	50	0.327	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.228	0.289	0.465	OK
Jonah Heim	C	40	130	30	0.231	8	22	0.279	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.223	0.270	0.388	OK
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer	3B	14	53	22	0.415	0	3	0.436	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.306	0.323	0.480	OK
Colby Thomas	RF	43	99	20	0.202	4	11	0.233	4	4	3	0	0	0	0	0.750	0.199	0.228	0.350	OK
Tommy White	1B	1	4	1	0.250	0	0	0.250	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.238	0.246	0.550	OK
Henry Bolte	CF	52	180	47	0.261	3	17	0.335	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.203	0.253	0.308	OK
Alika Williams	2B	29	85	22	0.259	2	8	0.284	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	0.333	0.125	0.155	0.244	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	9	1	1	4	11	0.250

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Foster Griffin	Starter	19	109.4	2.80	1.024	9.0	109	6.1	6	1	1	3	6	122	6.1	6	1
Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	28	24.3	3.33	1.358	11.5	31	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	22	1.0	1	0
PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	35	30.6	3.24	1.569	7.4	25	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	18	1.0	2	0
Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	30	25.1	4.30	1.355	8.2	23	0.2	2	0	0	0	2	18	0.2	2	0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jacob Lopez	Starter	14	53.0	7.13	1.868	7.3	43	3.2	5	4	4	1	4	78	3.2	4	4
Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	25	23.6	5.72	1.314	13.3	35	1.0	0	0	0	3	2	25	1.0	2	0
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	46	33.8	4.26	1.923	15.2	57	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	18	1.0	3	0
Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	30	40.4	3.56	1.436	11.6	52	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	24	1.1	2	0
Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	36	30.4	4.74	1.447	11.2	38	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15	1.0	2	0
José Suarez	Middle Reliever	23	28.8	4.06	1.389	10.0	32	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	23	0.2	1	0
Brady Basso	Reliever	5	3.7	14.59	3.243	9.7	4	0.1	0	1	1	2	0	20	0.1	0	1

Game Summary

WAS wins 5-1

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros

BAL Recent Form

HOU Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

HOU Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

CHW Recent Form

TOR Recent Form

CHW Season Quality

TOR Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies

CIN Recent Form

COL Recent Form

CIN Season Quality

COL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels

DET Recent Form

LAA Recent Form

DET Season Quality

LAA Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees

LAD Recent Form

NYY Recent Form

LAD Season Quality

NYY Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees

LAD Recent Form

NYY Recent Form

LAD Season Quality

NYY Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers

MIA Recent Form

MIL Recent Form

MIA Season Quality

MIL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs