MLB Predictions — July 16, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
NYM @ PHI	4 - 3	4 - 3	NYM	NYM	NYM wins 4-3	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

NYM 40-57 (4.1 RPG / 4.77 RA)

4 - 3

PHI 54-43 (4.37 RPG / 4.47 RA)

WINNER: NYM wins 4-3 TARGET: NYM 4 - 3 PHI (NYM) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	4	7
PHI	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3	13

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.9

Avg Allowed6.1

Run Diff-12.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.0

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff-18.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

NYM Season Quality

Record40-57

Win%0.412

Run Diff-65

RD/Game-0.670

PHI Season Quality

Record54-43

Win%0.557

Run Diff-10

RD/Game-0.103

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7835; margin adjustment: 0.3291; applied: True

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
A.J. Ewing	CF	57	196	54	0.276	7	24	0.350	5	4	2	0	0	1	0	0.500	0.256	0.317	0.434	OK
Juan Soto	LF	77	273	80	0.293	21	51	0.407	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.243	0.367	0.477	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	94	377	96	0.255	10	51	0.297	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.238	0.276	0.334	OK
Francisco Lindor	SS	39	153	33	0.216	5	12	0.298	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.218	0.288	0.383	OK
Carson Benge	RF	92	352	93	0.264	11	37	0.327	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.255	0.319	0.374	OK
Jorge Polanco	DH	19	73	13	0.178	1	3	0.241	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.199	0.255	0.317	OK
Jared Young	1B	48	141	35	0.248	6	17	0.316	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.174	0.225	0.305	OK
Brett Baty	2B	87	286	64	0.224	4	31	0.294	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.223	0.284	0.350	OK
Francisco Alvarez	C	62	208	52	0.250	9	22	0.314	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.240	0.297	0.367	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	34	7	4	4	5	11	0.206

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trea Turner	SS	91	382	91	0.238	10	33	0.284	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.218	0.268	0.323	OK
Kyle Schwarber	DH	91	348	88	0.253	31	58	0.362	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.247	0.343	0.468	OK
Bryce Harper	1B	95	338	88	0.260	20	57	0.366	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.229	0.341	0.398	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	90	335	101	0.301	15	46	0.340	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	0.500	0.253	0.302	0.397	OK
Alec Bohm	3B	91	339	73	0.215	11	46	0.279	5	4	2	0	0	1	0	0.500	0.205	0.259	0.324	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	90	317	79	0.249	7	41	0.308	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.257	0.314	0.393	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	66	228	47	0.206	7	33	0.285	5	4	2	0	0	1	1	0.500	0.222	0.279	0.390	OK
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	RF	21	67	12	0.179	2	6	0.211	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.211	0.237	0.345	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	85	262	67	0.256	2	20	0.306	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.282	0.325	0.397	OK
TEAM TOTALS									43	40	13	3	3	3	10	0.325

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Christian Scott	Starter	12	51.2	3.34	1.367	11.4	65	5.2	9	3	3	2	6	106	5.2	6	3
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	34	29.1	4.64	1.718	13.6	44	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	22	1.0	1	0
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	37	36.9	1.95	0.867	10.5	43	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	22	1.0	1	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	39	30.2	2.38	1.325	10.7	36	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	39	38.9	3.24	1.285	10.2	44	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	19	0.1	1	0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Aaron Nola	Starter	19	94.2	5.92	1.476	9.7	102	5.0	5	3	3	4	7	94	5.0	7	3
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	33	32.2	0.84	0.839	14.0	50	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	39	33.5	2.69	1.284	11.0	41	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	39	28.1	8.01	2.028	15.1	47	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	18	1.0	1	1
Jonathan Bowlan	Middle Reliever	33	26.7	3.37	1.236	12.8	38	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

NYM wins 4-3

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

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