MLB Predictions — July 11, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
ARI @ LAD	2 - 5	2 - 5	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 5-2	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
ATL @ STL	6 - 2	6 - 2	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 6-2	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BOS @ NYM	6 - 2	6 - 2	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 6-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ CIN	6 - 2	6 - 2	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 6-2	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ MIA	3 - 4	3 - 4	MIA	MIA	MIA wins 4-3	63%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
COL @ SF	3 - 4	3 - 4	SF	SF	SF wins 4-3	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ TEX	3 - 2	3 - 2	HOU	HOU	HOU wins 3-2	61%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
KC @ BAL	4 - 5	4 - 5	BAL	BAL	BAL wins 5-4	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAA @ MIN	2 - 7	2 - 7	MIN	MIN	MIN wins 7-2	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ PIT	4 - 1	4 - 1	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 4-1	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ PIT	5 - 2	5 - 2	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 5-2	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYY @ WAS	6 - 5	6 - 5	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 6-5	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
OAK @ CHW	3 - 6	3 - 6	CHW	CHW	CHW wins 6-3	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PHI @ DET	2 - 4	2 - 4	DET	DET	DET wins 4-2	63%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SEA @ TB	4 - 3	4 - 3	SEA	SEA	SEA wins 4-3	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TOR @ SD	4 - 2	4 - 2	TOR	TOR	TOR wins 4-2	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers

ARI 47-47 (4.28 RPG / 4.51 RA)

2 - 5

LAD 61-34 (5.27 RPG / 3.61 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 5-2 TARGET: ARI 2 - 5 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	5
LAD	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	x	5	8

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.900

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed0.5

Run Diff32.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff1.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

ARI Season Quality

Record46-47

Win%0.495

Run Diff-28

RD/Game-0.301

LAD Season Quality

Record61-33

Win%0.649

Run Diff164

RD/Game1.745

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.2772; margin adjustment: 0.9564; applied: True

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Tommy Troy	OF	23	75	18	0.240	3	5	0.321	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.235	0.307	0.410	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	75	257	61	0.237	4	27	0.354	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.215	0.339	0.322	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	73	297	78	0.263	12	46	0.315	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.266	0.319	0.447	OK
Ildemaro Vargas	1B	62	230	60	0.261	7	37	0.299	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.191	0.247	0.302	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	51	174	48	0.276	6	25	0.358	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.269	0.346	0.445	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	73	247	59	0.239	8	32	0.315	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.222	0.283	0.332	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	75	278	79	0.284	13	42	0.372	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.266	0.345	0.524	OK
Max Kepler	LF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.235	0.300	0.389
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	LF	30	112	23	0.205	1	13	0.260	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.190	0.237	0.273	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	32	5	2	2	1	8	0.156

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	86	328	95	0.290	21	57	0.403	4	3	2	1	2	1	1	0.667	0.278	0.384	0.559	OK
Andy Pages	CF	93	361	97	0.269	17	65	0.333	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.264	0.328	0.454	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	92	348	102	0.293	15	49	0.379	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.277	0.352	0.456	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	57	231	55	0.238	11	30	0.295	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.240	0.295	0.379	OK
Max Muncy	3B	86	287	76	0.265	17	40	0.359	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.258	0.346	0.446	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	87	320	80	0.250	7	47	0.340	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.279	0.357	0.404	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	60	216	54	0.250	8	36	0.321	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.211	0.281	0.336	OK
Dalton Rushing	C	57	178	46	0.258	10	30	0.335	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.256	0.323	0.441	OK
Tommy Edman	2B	17	60	21	0.350	1	9	0.426	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.261	0.334	0.408	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	8	5	5	2	6	0.250

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	15	86.7	2.49	1.257	6.7	65	6.2	5	3	3	1	6	103	6.2	6	3
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	15	1.0	0	2
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	2	2.1	0.00	0.476	8.6	2	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	16	0.1	0	0

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Starter	16	103.5	2.52	0.889	8.7	100	7.0	5	2	2	0	6	103	7.0	6	2
Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	40	35.1	2.82	0.855	12.6	49	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14	1.0	2	0
Edgardo Henriquez	Middle Reliever	36	35.4	2.54	0.989	9.4	37	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	42	24.2	2.98	1.488	16.7	45	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 5-2

Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals

ATL 54-40 (4.86 RPG / 3.91 RA)

6 - 2

STL 49-44 (4.54 RPG / 4.49 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 6-2 TARGET: ATL 6 - 2 STL (ATL) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	1	0	6	11
STL	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	3

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.8

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff9.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

STL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff14.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

ATL Season Quality

Record54-39

Win%0.581

Run Diff90

RD/Game0.968

STL Season Quality

Record48-44

Win%0.522

Run Diff3

RD/Game0.033

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0235; margin adjustment: -0.4299; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Michael Harris II	CF	87	327	99	0.303	16	53	0.331	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.281	0.306	0.453	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	94	361	97	0.269	14	51	0.318	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	0.500	0.247	0.296	0.407	OK
Matt Olson	1B	94	363	97	0.267	25	58	0.341	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.241	0.317	0.539	OK
Drake Baldwin	DH	71	274	70	0.255	16	46	0.341	5	5	2	1	0	0	2	0.400	0.249	0.318	0.391	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	90	335	91	0.272	9	51	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.253	0.304	0.391	OK
Austin Riley	3B	94	337	70	0.208	9	42	0.286	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.218	0.285	0.345	OK
Eli White	RF	46	110	25	0.227	4	18	0.271	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.225	0.268	0.413	OK
Joey Bart	C	10	26	4	0.154	2	6	0.267	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.216	0.248	0.397	OK
Jorge Mateo	SS	48	124	30	0.242	4	11	0.282	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.181	0.222	0.292	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	38	11	6	6	2	11	0.289

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	86	338	90	0.266	13	35	0.364	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.239	0.312	0.356	OK
Iván Herrera	C	92	335	83	0.248	11	39	0.380	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.235	0.322	0.368	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	91	348	95	0.273	15	65	0.335	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.240	0.292	0.436	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	90	346	102	0.295	21	71	0.355	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.275	0.331	0.523	OK
Lars Nootbaar	LF	30	100	26	0.260	2	9	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.231	0.309	0.367	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	82	306	75	0.245	4	38	0.312	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.229	0.289	0.334	OK
Bryan Torres	DH	22	58	10	0.172	3	6	0.226	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.180	0.228	0.332	OK
Blaze Jordan	3B	22	73	17	0.233	1	13	0.250	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.226	0.256	0.356	OK
Nathan Church	CF	69	232	56	0.241	8	27	0.283	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.190	0.230	0.320	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	30	3	2	2	2	7	0.100

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Reynaldo López	Starter	21	55.5	3.24	1.297	8.3	51	5.0	3	2	2	1	6	77	5.0	6	2
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	30	30.4	2.37	1.151	10.4	35	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	18	1.0	0	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	43	36.2	1.74	0.773	12.7	51	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	30	33.4	2.96	1.317	11.3	42	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Matthew Liberatore	Starter	18	85.1	5.50	1.575	8.7	82	4.1	10	5	5	2	6	97	4.1	6	5
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	38	36.7	3.68	1.172	9.3	38	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	43	34.3	4.20	1.574	11.3	43	2.0	1	1	1	0	2	28	2.0	2	1
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	40	34.3	3.94	1.312	8.7	33	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	21	1.2	2	0

Game Summary

ATL wins 6-2

Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets

BOS 45-48 (4.11 RPG / 3.83 RA)

6 - 2

NYM 40-56 (4.12 RPG / 4.79 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 6-2 TARGET: BOS 6 - 2 NYM (BOS) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	0	0	6	8
NYM	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	3

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed3.0

Run Diff20.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.3

Avg Allowed6.4

Run Diff-11.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak

BOS Season Quality

Record44-48

Win%0.478

Run Diff22

RD/Game0.239

NYM Season Quality

Record40-55

Win%0.421

Run Diff-60

RD/Game-0.632

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9565; margin adjustment: -0.4017; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Anthony Seigler	2B	20	65	19	0.292	2	5	0.378	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.169	0.257	0.326	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	86	332	94	0.283	8	39	0.331	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.266	0.304	0.425	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	90	346	92	0.266	11	43	0.336	4	4	2	1	4	0	0	0.500	0.252	0.323	0.434	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	83	280	63	0.225	9	39	0.287	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.230	0.286	0.419	OK
Masataka Yoshida	DH	56	174	46	0.264	2	14	0.332	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.191	0.253	0.305	OK
Andruw Monasterio	1B	52	152	33	0.217	4	13	0.256	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.146	0.190	0.287	OK
Jarren Duran	LF	85	332	65	0.196	13	44	0.262	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.216	0.289	0.379	OK
Carlos Narváez	C	49	151	29	0.192	2	6	0.257	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.193	0.243	0.286	OK
Tsung-Che Cheng	SS	8	26	8	0.308	0	4	0.345	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.273	0.323	0.377	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	8	6	6	3	7	0.229

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
A.J. Ewing	CF	55	188	53	0.282	7	24	0.358	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.270	0.335	0.458	OK
Juan Soto	LF	75	266	80	0.301	21	51	0.414	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.258	0.387	0.548	OK
Francisco Lindor	SS	37	146	31	0.212	4	10	0.294	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.204	0.272	0.331	OK
Carson Benge	RF	90	345	93	0.270	11	37	0.332	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.285	0.349	0.445	OK
Jorge Polanco	DH	17	68	12	0.176	1	3	0.243	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.200	0.258	0.321	OK
Eric Wagaman	1B	14	28	6	0.214	2	4	0.267	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.124	0.183	0.223	OK
Francisco Alvarez	C	61	205	50	0.244	9	22	0.307	3	3	1	1	2	0	1	0.333	0.227	0.278	0.359	OK
Brett Baty	3B	85	279	64	0.229	4	31	0.298	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.235	0.291	0.368	OK
Zack Short	2B	4	9	1	0.111	0	0	0.200	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.125	0.249	0.189	OK
TEAM TOTALS									30	30	3	2	2	0	9	0.100

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eduardo Rivera	Starter	1	3.1	0.00	0.323	8.7	3	3.1	2	2	2	0	3	50	3.1	3	2
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	28	27.2	1.32	1.103	11.6	35	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	25	2.0	2	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	33	31.3	2.30	0.990	10.4	36	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	25	2.0	2	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	25	17.7	7.12	1.864	14.7	29	1.2	1	0	0	0	2	24	1.2	2	0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Freddy Peralta	Starter	19	96.5	4.85	1.472	9.1	98	4.2	7	6	6	2	4	96	4.2	4	6
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	33	28.1	4.48	1.637	14.1	44	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	1.0	1	0
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	36	35.9	2.01	0.891	10.5	42	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	37	28.2	2.55	1.418	11.5	36	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	18	1.0	0	0
Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	38	38.7	3.26	1.292	10.0	43	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	20	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

BOS wins 6-2

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds

CHC 52-42 (5.01 RPG / 4.52 RA)

6 - 2

CIN 43-50 (4.17 RPG / 4.75 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 6-2 TARGET: CHC 6 - 2 CIN (CHC) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	3	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	6	10
CIN	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	6

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.5

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff12.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff3.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CHC Season Quality

Record52-42

Win%0.553

Run Diff46

RD/Game0.489

CIN Season Quality

Record43-50

Win%0.462

Run Diff-54

RD/Game-0.581

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.2062; margin adjustment: -0.5066; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	93	348	103	0.296	21	52	0.387	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.298	0.373	0.557	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	78	293	79	0.270	15	47	0.348	5	5	1	1	0	0	2	0.200	0.273	0.337	0.496	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	91	357	85	0.238	7	35	0.336	5	3	0	1	0	2	0	0.000	0.227	0.312	0.339	OK
Carson Kelly	DH	65	212	58	0.274	5	30	0.361	5	4	2	1	0	1	0	0.500	0.255	0.342	0.407	OK
Michael Busch	1B	92	335	78	0.233	11	48	0.367	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.232	0.349	0.374	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	91	364	87	0.239	4	38	0.309	5	4	2	1	3	1	0	0.500	0.233	0.298	0.332	OK
Ian Happ	LF	88	331	74	0.224	17	41	0.330	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.228	0.317	0.384	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	88	301	65	0.216	16	58	0.300	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.253	0.323	0.449	OK
Miguel Amaya	C	42	127	29	0.228	3	13	0.333	4	4	3	1	1	0	1	0.750	0.222	0.300	0.345	OK
TEAM TOTALS									43	37	10	6	6	6	8	0.270

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Elly De La Cruz	SS	73	290	80	0.276	15	44	0.350	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.246	0.319	0.481	OK
Sal Stewart	3B	92	350	91	0.260	19	65	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.252	0.326	0.491	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	64	230	56	0.243	15	41	0.351	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.238	0.336	0.460	OK
Spencer Steer	RF	87	306	76	0.248	14	36	0.328	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.265	0.330	0.434	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	64	190	46	0.242	8	24	0.327	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.137	0.224	0.265	OK
Eugenio Suárez	DH	64	231	47	0.203	9	32	0.277	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.198	0.273	0.347	OK
Jose Trevino	C	20	64	16	0.250	1	8	0.262	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.243	0.258	0.378	OK
Edwin Arroyo	2B	28	92	23	0.250	0	4	0.293	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.220	0.244	0.321	OK
TJ Friedl	CF	56	184	32	0.174	3	11	0.254	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.175	0.241	0.280	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	2	2	2	4	0.182

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Javier Assad	Starter	14	52.6	4.45	1.179	5.6	33	5.1	3	1	1	1	3	80	5.1	3	1
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	40	35.7	3.53	1.457	11.8	47	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	18	1.0	0	0
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	29	21.2	5.09	1.462	14.0	33	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1
Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	24	26.8	2.69	1.082	4.4	13	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	12	1.2	1	0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nick Lodolo	Starter	11	55.8	4.84	1.505	7.4	46	5.0	8	6	6	2	5	95	5.0	5	6
Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	17	15.4	6.43	1.494	9.4	16	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	27	23.5	2.68	1.064	9.2	24	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	21	1.0	0	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	46	37.8	3.57	1.614	9.3	39	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Caleb Ferguson	Middle Reliever	18	13.8	2.61	1.739	11.1	17	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

CHC wins 6-2

Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins

CLE 50-46 (3.96 RPG / 4.01 RA)

3 - 4

MIA 52-44 (4.55 RPG / 4.27 RA)

WINNER: MIA wins 4-3 TARGET: CLE 3 - 4 MIA (MIA) Confidence: 63.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	8
MIA	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	7

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-1.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs6.4

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff15.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

CLE Season Quality

Record49-46

Win%0.516

Run Diff-8

RD/Game-0.084

MIA Season Quality

Record52-43

Win%0.547

Run Diff30

RD/Game0.316

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4474; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Travis Bazzana	2B	63	236	57	0.242	7	28	0.331	5	5	2	1	1	0	2	0.400	0.212	0.293	0.341	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	91	308	84	0.273	7	42	0.338	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.251	0.300	0.408	OK
Chase DeLauter	DH	76	288	82	0.285	10	45	0.346	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.285	0.343	0.501	OK
Kyle Manzardo	1B	84	263	56	0.213	10	29	0.303	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.184	0.267	0.306	OK
Kahlil Watson	RF	21	68	14	0.206	1	9	0.239	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.203	0.239	0.307	OK
Gabriel Arias	3B	25	81	18	0.222	5	10	0.259	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.222	0.262	0.430	OK
Petey Halpin	CF	24	54	9	0.167	0	1	0.182	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.122	0.142	0.212	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	30	89	19	0.213	2	8	0.260	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.200	0.253	0.329	OK
Steven Kwan	LF	84	288	64	0.222	1	14	0.327	4	3	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.233	0.345	0.316	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	8	3	3	2	7	0.235

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Liam Hicks	DH	83	291	83	0.285	13	57	0.357	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.273	0.331	0.398	OK
Otto Lopez	SS	93	372	127	0.341	9	45	0.374	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.307	0.345	0.526	OK
Kyle Stowers	1B	70	263	63	0.240	12	42	0.322	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.242	0.305	0.486	OK
Xavier Edwards	2B	94	345	104	0.301	6	36	0.385	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.285	0.375	0.408	OK
Heriberto Hernández	LF	63	195	46	0.236	13	36	0.309	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.278	0.357	0.634	OK
Griffin Conine	RF	26	73	19	0.260	4	11	0.357	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.174	0.266	0.329	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	91	320	64	0.200	5	25	0.322	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.243	0.342	0.344	OK
Joe Mack	C	50	150	36	0.240	7	23	0.301	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.221	0.278	0.413	OK
Javier Sanoja	3B	66	220	60	0.273	3	34	0.306	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.237	0.272	0.399	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	31	7	4	4	2	3	0.226

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tanner Bibee	Starter	19	104.7	4.13	1.156	7.2	84	5.2	6	3	3	0	3	89	5.2	3	3
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	34	25.0	2.88	1.480	9.7	27	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	9	1.1	0	0
Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	33	29.2	1.85	0.925	12.0	39	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	20	1.0	0	1

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eury Pérez	Starter	15	78.5	3.90	1.121	10.2	89	5.1	4	2	2	2	6	88	5.1	6	2
Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	30	26.6	7.11	1.504	12.9	38	1.2	3	1	1	0	0	30	1.2	0	1
Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	39	32.3	5.29	1.796	10.9	39	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	38	35.8	3.27	1.089	12.1	48	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

MIA wins 4-3

Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants

COL 39-58 (4.79 RPG / 5.69 RA)

3 - 4

SF 41-55 (4.16 RPG / 4.79 RA)

WINNER: SF wins 4-3 TARGET: COL 3 - 4 SF (SF) Confidence: 57.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	6
SF	0	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	x	4	9

COL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs6.3

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff17.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SF Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed6.2

Run Diff-16.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

COL Season Quality

Record38-57

Win%0.400

Run Diff-86

RD/Game-0.905

SF Season Quality

Record40-54

Win%0.426

Run Diff-62

RD/Game-0.660

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.284; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	CF	75	272	82	0.301	9	51	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.276	0.318	0.487	OK
Mickey Moniak	LF	58	198	55	0.278	15	38	0.322	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.263	0.299	0.501	OK
Hunter Goodman	DH	88	330	83	0.252	27	51	0.323	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.258	0.336	0.463	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	90	326	99	0.304	12	46	0.384	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.288	0.365	0.429	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	88	266	72	0.271	8	33	0.370	4	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.281	0.377	0.499	OK
Troy Johnston	RF	81	266	82	0.308	3	38	0.372	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.271	0.337	0.395	OK
Edouard Julien	2B	74	204	45	0.221	3	20	0.332	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.244	0.348	0.405	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	87	306	63	0.206	8	32	0.248	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.202	0.244	0.368	OK
Brett Sullivan	C	40	119	26	0.218	4	15	0.252	3	2	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.213	0.249	0.343	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	6	3	3	1	7	0.188

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Heliot Ramos	LF	55	210	55	0.262	8	28	0.297	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.261	0.292	0.495	OK
Luis Arraez	2B	89	352	119	0.338	4	34	0.376	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.306	0.351	0.452	OK
Casey Schmitt	3B	85	339	95	0.280	18	46	0.309	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.255	0.279	0.451	OK
Rafael Devers	1B	94	356	91	0.256	19	52	0.325	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.275	0.356	0.528	OK
Willy Adames	SS	89	347	79	0.228	15	36	0.279	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.214	0.277	0.389	OK
Bryce Eldridge	DH	53	183	50	0.273	8	21	0.368	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.251	0.347	0.442	OK
Jung Hoo Lee	RF	85	320	100	0.312	5	33	0.344	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.256	0.288	0.383	OK
Jesus Rodriguez	C	13	39	9	0.231	2	7	0.286	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.228	0.269	0.365	OK
Drew Gilbert	CF	66	182	43	0.236	4	19	0.300	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.242	0.296	0.426	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	9	4	4	4	6	0.273

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kyle Freeland	Starter	16	79.2	7.73	1.667	8.0	70	4.2	8	4	4	2	4	97	4.2	4	4
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	29	43.1	3.34	1.323	8.6	41	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	4	3.2	2.81	2.500	14.1	5	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	20	1.0	0	0
Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	23	21.9	4.11	1.416	10.3	25	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tyler Mahle	Starter	14	68.9	5.88	1.538	9.0	69	4.2	5	3	3	1	5	84	4.2	5	3
Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	37	33.1	4.62	1.480	12.8	47	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	30	21.8	3.72	1.697	14.9	36	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Sam Hentges	Middle Reliever	22	13.7	2.63	1.971	13.8	21	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Dylan Smith	Middle Reliever	14	11.5	3.91	1.304	10.2	13	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	19	1.1	0	0

Game Summary

SF wins 4-3

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers

HOU 46-50 (4.53 RPG / 5.07 RA)

3 - 2

TEX 48-46 (4.15 RPG / 4.26 RA)

WINNER: HOU wins 3-2 TARGET: HOU 3 - 2 TEX (HOU) Confidence: 61.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	3	8
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	6

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed5.7

Run Diff-11.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff-7.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

HOU Season Quality

Record46-49

Win%0.484

Run Diff-48

RD/Game-0.505

TEX Season Quality

Record47-46

Win%0.505

Run Diff-14

RD/Game-0.151

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3865; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	48	187	55	0.294	6	21	0.354	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.273	0.320	0.380	OK
Yordan Alvarez	LF	93	339	107	0.316	30	68	0.421	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.261	0.351	0.518	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	88	319	78	0.245	12	47	0.341	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.234	0.304	0.387	OK
Christian Walker	1B	93	347	84	0.242	20	58	0.318	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.232	0.292	0.426	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	72	277	65	0.235	10	26	0.308	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.227	0.296	0.408	OK
LaMonte Wade Jr.	RF	8	24	6	0.250	1	4	0.308	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.242	0.302	0.403	OK
Yainer Diaz	DH	40	156	38	0.244	6	22	0.268	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.234	0.256	0.450	OK
Taylor Trammell	CF	39	107	26	0.243	3	11	0.302	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.130	0.191	0.250	OK
Christian Vázquez	C	56	168	37	0.220	4	21	0.271	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.215	0.262	0.308	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	3	3	2	8	0.229

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Joc Pederson	DH	85	245	58	0.237	15	32	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.152	0.257	0.328	OK
Wyatt Langford	LF	42	170	47	0.276	9	22	0.324	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.279	0.320	0.537	OK
Josh Jung	3B	85	330	98	0.297	9	34	0.362	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.276	0.346	0.432	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	88	338	88	0.260	9	32	0.330	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.252	0.312	0.432	OK
Jake Burger	1B	90	332	81	0.244	16	58	0.307	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.226	0.279	0.418	OK
Ezequiel Duran	SS	83	290	78	0.269	8	47	0.320	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.168	0.222	0.314	OK
Evan Carter	CF	75	217	39	0.180	7	22	0.292	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.116	0.231	0.216	OK
Nicky Lopez	2B	36	104	35	0.337	1	11	0.373	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.184	0.218	0.255	OK
Elias Díaz	C	20	63	18	0.286	2	11	0.292	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.216	0.237	0.381	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	2	2	2	14	0.182

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Peter Lambert	Starter	14	77.9	3.35	1.181	8.5	74	5.2	2	0	0	1	9	102	5.2	9	0
Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	16	15.1	0.60	0.728	14.9	25	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	23	1.0	1	2
Bryan King	Middle Reliever	39	36.1	3.24	1.440	8.0	32	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0
Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	45	38.9	2.78	1.003	10.6	46	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	19	1.0	2	0

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kumar Rocker	Starter	17	82.0	4.06	1.378	8.1	74	4.2	5	1	1	2	6	88	4.2	6	1
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	33	41.1	1.09	0.584	10.1	46	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0
Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	26	29.5	3.66	1.288	11.3	37	1.2	2	2	2	0	0	27	1.2	0	2
Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	41	34.2	2.63	1.491	9.5	36	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

HOU wins 3-2

Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles

KC 38-57 (4.29 RPG / 5.11 RA)

4 - 5

BAL 44-51 (4.56 RPG / 4.87 RA)

WINNER: BAL wins 5-4 TARGET: KC 4 - 5 BAL (BAL) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	0	1	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	4	7
BAL	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	x	5	9

KC Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed5.4

Run Diff-6.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-8.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

KC Season Quality

Record38-57

Win%0.400

Run Diff-77

RD/Game-0.811

BAL Season Quality

Record44-51

Win%0.463

Run Diff-30

RD/Game-0.316

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.5895; margin adjustment: 0.2476; applied: True

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	C	85	300	73	0.243	13	49	0.310	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.225	0.293	0.387	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	88	348	100	0.287	13	38	0.355	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.258	0.319	0.442	OK
Jac Caglianone	RF	87	308	79	0.256	15	35	0.318	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.169	0.219	0.323	OK
Lane Thomas	CF	75	223	51	0.229	7	29	0.329	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.257	0.346	0.472	OK
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	67	249	56	0.225	6	32	0.311	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.241	0.322	0.369	OK
Salvador Perez	DH	86	339	72	0.212	11	36	0.253	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.239	0.267	0.385	OK
Michael Massey	2B	72	220	58	0.264	7	31	0.304	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.263	0.323	0.416	OK
Nick Loftin	3B	56	172	43	0.250	4	29	0.337	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.264	0.338	0.451	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	81	256	62	0.242	5	27	0.351	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.257	0.357	0.437	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	4	4	3	6	0.206

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Gunnar Henderson	SS	92	380	83	0.218	15	40	0.290	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.212	0.267	0.334	OK
Adley Rutschman	C	63	235	61	0.260	8	47	0.330	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.260	0.336	0.410	OK
Taylor Ward	LF	92	346	89	0.257	5	23	0.384	4	4	2	1	1	0	2	0.500	0.268	0.388	0.368	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	93	346	88	0.254	20	62	0.348	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.241	0.334	0.426	OK
Samuel Basallo	DH	78	265	66	0.249	15	44	0.307	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.234	0.291	0.442	OK
Tyler O'Neill	RF	54	146	29	0.199	6	12	0.299	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.250	0.338	0.575	OK
Coby Mayo	3B	68	216	42	0.194	11	33	0.268	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.218	0.283	0.415	OK
Jackson Holliday	2B	40	115	25	0.217	5	15	0.303	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.249	0.335	0.400	OK
Leody Taveras	CF	75	243	57	0.235	3	31	0.310	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.121	0.213	0.248	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	9	5	5	3	6	0.273

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Noah Cameron	Starter	17	86.8	4.87	1.486	8.5	82	4.2	9	5	5	2	4	101	4.2	4	5
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	37	34.5	6.52	1.681	9.7	37	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	21	0.2	1	0
Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	39	33.9	2.65	1.062	8.8	33	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	36	33.9	4.51	1.593	6.6	25	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kyle Bradish	Starter	18	98.8	3.83	1.427	9.2	101	5.1	6	3	3	3	4	104	5.1	4	3
Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever	34	40.4	3.34	1.139	10.0	45	1.1	1	1	1	0	2	20	1.1	2	1
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	39	24.4	2.58	1.148	10.0	27	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	43	35.9	3.01	0.947	10.8	43	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

BAL wins 5-4

Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins

LAA 38-58 (4.46 RPG / 5.01 RA)

2 - 7

MIN 47-49 (4.86 RPG / 5.03 RA)

WINNER: MIN wins 7-2 TARGET: LAA 2 - 7 MIN (MIN) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAA	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	7
MIN	0	1	3	0	1	0	2	0	x	7	8

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff-13.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.9

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff13.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

LAA Season Quality

Record37-57

Win%0.394

Run Diff-52

RD/Game-0.553

MIN Season Quality

Record46-48

Win%0.489

Run Diff-17

RD/Game-0.181

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.516; margin adjustment: 0.2167; applied: True

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	92	362	85	0.235	19	45	0.329	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.257	0.333	0.469	OK
Mike Trout	CF	76	274	63	0.230	18	39	0.388	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	0.667	0.243	0.373	0.511	OK
Nolan Schanuel	1B	74	279	75	0.269	6	34	0.338	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.260	0.318	0.371	OK
Jorge Soler	DH	72	264	57	0.216	11	40	0.299	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.212	0.282	0.353	OK
Vaughn Grissom	2B	52	180	46	0.256	5	35	0.322	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.278	0.329	0.432	OK
Jo Adell	RF	94	365	91	0.249	13	53	0.294	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.264	0.285	0.446	OK
Wade Meckler	LF	39	123	37	0.301	2	17	0.368	4	4	2	0	0	0	2	0.500	0.286	0.346	0.392	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	25	99	25	0.253	3	13	0.302	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.226	0.274	0.336	OK
Logan O'Hoppe	C	62	205	45	0.220	4	23	0.281	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.190	0.242	0.279	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	34	7	2	2	1	6	0.206

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trevor Larnach	LF	75	246	70	0.285	6	29	0.371	5	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.185	0.280	0.348	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	88	336	85	0.253	14	50	0.308	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.274	0.326	0.415	OK
Josh Bell	DH	92	336	84	0.250	13	60	0.308	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.266	0.320	0.461	OK
Kody Clemens	2B	80	294	73	0.248	16	46	0.307	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.333	0.174	0.227	0.357	OK
Royce Lewis	1B	61	222	48	0.216	9	27	0.293	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.241	0.315	0.416	OK
Victor Caratini	C	68	219	52	0.237	7	34	0.327	4	3	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.248	0.317	0.372	OK
Alan Roden	RF	3	9	2	0.222	0	2	0.300	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.255	0.325	0.363	OK
Tristan Gray	SS	57	164	38	0.232	4	29	0.271	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.223	0.260	0.320	OK
Luke Keaschall	CF	88	301	76	0.252	4	27	0.342	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.263	0.341	0.392	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	31	8	7	7	4	5	0.258

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Johnson	Starter	8	28.1	7.05	1.566	7.7	24	4.0	7	5	5	1	2	75	4.0	2	5
Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	37	38.7	4.19	1.370	13.7	59	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	21	1.1	1	0
Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	23	19.6	2.76	1.020	12.9	28	1.2	1	2	2	1	2	27	1.2	2	2
Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	35	36.9	4.63	1.436	10.2	42	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	18	1.0	0	0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Joe Ryan	Starter	19	103.4	2.87	1.044	10.6	122	5.2	5	2	2	1	6	98	5.2	6	2
Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	29	21.6	2.08	1.111	10.0	24	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	34	37.7	4.06	1.485	11.0	46	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	7	1.1	0	0
Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	39	24.8	6.53	2.097	10.9	30	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	17	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

MIN wins 7-2

Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

MIL 59-36 (5.09 RPG / 3.67 RA)

4 - 1

PIT 49-47 (5.23 RPG / 4.86 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 4-1 TARGET: MIL 4 - 1 PIT (MIL) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	4	10
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	5

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff5.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs6.0

Avg Allowed5.5

Run Diff5.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak

MIL Season Quality

Record59-34

Win%0.634

Run Diff137

RD/Game1.473

PIT Season Quality

Record47-47

Win%0.500

Run Diff33

RD/Game0.351

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.3237; margin adjustment: -0.5559; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Christian Yelich	DH	58	226	54	0.239	6	31	0.324	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.225	0.305	0.359	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	78	255	69	0.271	7	37	0.355	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.306	0.377	0.497	OK
Brice Turang	2B	87	342	93	0.272	13	56	0.363	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.272	0.353	0.463	OK
William Contreras	C	86	338	95	0.281	9	52	0.342	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.232	0.289	0.328	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	82	284	77	0.271	17	57	0.368	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.271	0.365	0.503	OK
Luis Lara	LF	2	8	2	0.250	0	2	0.333	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.248	0.326	0.342	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	22	66	17	0.258	0	6	0.370	5	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.286	0.394	0.404	OK
Sal Frelick	RF	83	264	63	0.239	3	30	0.301	4	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.232	0.283	0.334	OK
Joey Ortiz	3B	69	202	45	0.223	3	22	0.289	4	4	3	0	0	0	1	0.750	0.245	0.308	0.378	OK
TEAM TOTALS									43	36	10	4	4	5	4	0.278

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake Mangum	CF	65	222	69	0.311	2	18	0.356	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.281	0.319	0.399	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	87	345	84	0.243	21	64	0.315	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.231	0.295	0.414	OK
Bryan Reynolds	DH	94	342	96	0.281	14	57	0.395	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.250	0.358	0.467	OK
Esmerlyn Valdez	RF	25	82	24	0.293	7	18	0.359	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.251	0.323	0.495	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	1B	77	298	86	0.289	16	61	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.281	0.337	0.518	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	87	326	101	0.310	4	41	0.370	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.301	0.370	0.402	OK
Tyler Callihan	LF	26	73	19	0.260	3	15	0.345	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.157	0.240	0.309	OK
Jared Triolo	SS	56	181	42	0.232	1	14	0.305	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.222	0.283	0.333	OK
Henry Davis	C	51	157	24	0.153	7	24	0.247	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.183	0.255	0.345	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	5	1	1	2	8	0.156

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brandon Sproat	Starter	17	75.5	5.36	1.430	10.0	84	5.0	4	1	1	1	4	84	5.0	4	1
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	36	36.0	2.00	0.917	11.5	46	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	12	1.2	0	0
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	38	34.4	2.88	1.105	9.2	35	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	44	49.3	3.47	1.562	13.1	72	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	18	1.0	3	0

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Braxton Ashcraft	Starter	18	106.0	3.31	1.123	10.4	122	6.0	7	3	3	3	4	109	6.0	4	3
Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	40	37.0	5.84	1.486	8.8	36	1.0	1	1	1	2	0	19	1.0	0	1
Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	36	29.7	4.55	1.515	16.1	53	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	38	36.9	3.66	1.003	10.7	44	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

MIL wins 4-1

Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

MIL 59-36 (5.09 RPG / 3.67 RA)

5 - 2

PIT 49-47 (5.23 RPG / 4.86 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 5-2 TARGET: MIL 5 - 2 PIT (MIL) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	0	1	5	9
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	5

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff5.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs6.0

Avg Allowed5.5

Run Diff5.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak

MIL Season Quality

Record59-34

Win%0.634

Run Diff137

RD/Game1.473

PIT Season Quality

Record47-47

Win%0.500

Run Diff33

RD/Game0.351

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.3237; margin adjustment: -0.5559; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Christian Yelich	DH	58	226	54	0.239	6	31	0.324	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.225	0.305	0.360	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	78	255	69	0.271	7	37	0.355	5	4	1	1	2	1	0	0.250	0.306	0.377	0.498	OK
Brice Turang	2B	87	342	93	0.272	13	56	0.363	5	3	0	0	0	2	2	0.000	0.272	0.353	0.464	OK
William Contreras	C	86	338	95	0.281	9	52	0.342	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.232	0.290	0.328	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	82	284	77	0.271	17	57	0.368	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.271	0.365	0.504	OK
Luis Lara	LF	2	8	2	0.250	0	2	0.333	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.249	0.327	0.342	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	22	66	17	0.258	0	6	0.370	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.286	0.394	0.405	OK
Sal Frelick	RF	83	264	63	0.239	3	30	0.301	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.232	0.283	0.334	OK
Joey Ortiz	3B	69	202	45	0.223	3	22	0.289	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.246	0.309	0.378	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	36	9	5	5	5	10	0.250

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake Mangum	CF	65	222	69	0.311	2	18	0.356	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.281	0.319	0.400	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	87	345	84	0.243	21	64	0.315	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.231	0.296	0.415	OK
Bryan Reynolds	DH	94	342	96	0.281	14	57	0.395	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.250	0.358	0.467	OK
Esmerlyn Valdez	RF	25	82	24	0.293	7	18	0.359	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.251	0.323	0.495	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	1B	77	298	86	0.289	16	61	0.342	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.281	0.337	0.518	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	87	326	101	0.310	4	41	0.370	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.301	0.370	0.402	OK
Tyler Callihan	LF	26	73	19	0.260	3	15	0.345	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.157	0.241	0.309	OK
Jared Triolo	SS	56	181	42	0.232	1	14	0.305	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.222	0.283	0.334	OK
Henry Davis	C	51	157	24	0.153	7	24	0.247	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.184	0.255	0.345	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	5	2	2	3	8	0.156

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shane Drohan	Starter	18	61.1	3.09	1.293	9.0	61	5.2	1	0	0	3	6	86	5.2	6	0
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	36	36.0	2.00	0.917	11.5	46	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	38	34.4	2.88	1.105	9.2	35	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	44	49.3	3.47	1.562	13.1	72	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	22	1.1	1	2

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bubba Chandler	Starter	18	87.8	4.92	1.469	8.1	79	5.0	7	4	4	3	6	107	5.0	6	4
Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	40	37.0	5.84	1.486	8.8	36	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	36	29.7	4.55	1.515	16.1	53	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	38	36.9	3.66	1.003	10.7	44	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	39	46.0	3.72	1.478	11.3	58	1.0	1	1	1	2	1	24	1.0	1	1

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-2

New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals

NYY 53-42 (4.81 RPG / 3.87 RA)

6 - 5

WAS 48-48 (5.34 RPG / 5.25 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 6-5 TARGET: NYY 6 - 5 WAS (NYY) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	2	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	6	8
WAS	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	0	5	9

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff-8.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.9

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff6.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak

NYY Season Quality

Record52-42

Win%0.553

Run Diff87

RD/Game0.926

WAS Season Quality

Record48-47

Win%0.505

Run Diff11

RD/Game0.116

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.8816; margin adjustment: -0.3703; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Amed Rosario	3B	51	150	36	0.240	9	26	0.280	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.235	0.276	0.412	OK
Ben Rice	DH	88	331	91	0.275	29	65	0.367	4	4	3	1	3	0	0	0.750	0.283	0.366	0.658	OK
Trent Grisham	CF	72	252	59	0.234	9	38	0.333	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.244	0.335	0.416	OK
Paul Goldschmidt	1B	64	235	61	0.260	14	41	0.311	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.212	0.257	0.360	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	92	340	85	0.250	11	51	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.239	0.321	0.370	OK
Jasson Domínguez	RF	33	124	30	0.242	5	11	0.282	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.268	0.306	0.453	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	88	311	69	0.222	13	36	0.298	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.333	0.223	0.299	0.393	OK
Anthony Volpe	SS	42	133	33	0.248	1	13	0.346	4	3	0	1	0	1	2	0.000	0.236	0.334	0.335	OK
Ali Sánchez	C	14	30	8	0.267	0	4	0.303	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.223	0.251	0.352	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	6	6	2	11	0.229

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	RF	95	362	99	0.273	26	62	0.404	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.286	0.420	0.630	OK
Luis García Jr.	DH	88	296	85	0.287	20	68	0.318	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.200	0.239	0.416	OK
Curtis Mead	1B	78	254	61	0.240	15	42	0.334	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.188	0.278	0.355	OK
CJ Abrams	SS	91	337	93	0.276	20	67	0.354	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.270	0.336	0.508	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	93	362	91	0.251	10	44	0.304	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.231	0.271	0.389	OK
Dylan Crews	CF	44	168	37	0.220	6	18	0.276	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.213	0.262	0.353	OK
Jorbit Vivas	3B	66	175	43	0.246	3	16	0.323	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.238	0.314	0.341	OK
Drew Millas	C	42	128	24	0.188	2	10	0.276	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.204	0.280	0.286	OK
Nasim Nuñez	2B	81	261	64	0.245	1	28	0.329	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.254	0.332	0.333	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	36	9	5	5	2	8	0.250

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cam Schlittler	Starter	19	109.9	2.05	0.946	10.7	131	6.0	6	3	3	1	7	110	6.0	7	3
David Bednar	Middle Reliever	36	36.9	2.93	1.165	10.7	44	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	43	27.8	3.24	1.763	16.2	50	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	22	1.0	0	2
Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	46	36.9	1.95	1.409	12.7	52	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	15	0.2	1	0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
PJ Poulin	Starter	34	29.4	3.37	1.565	6.7	22	5.0	4	2	2	1	6	79	5.0	6	2
Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	28	24.3	3.33	1.358	11.5	31	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1
Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	29	25.0	3.60	1.280	8.3	23	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Justin Lawrence	Middle Reliever	6	3.7	7.30	3.514	12.2	5	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	22	1.0	2	1
Riley Cornelio	Middle Reliever	6	12.2	8.11	2.131	8.9	12	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	24	1.0	1	2

Game Summary

NYY wins 6-5

Oakland Athletics @ Chicago White Sox

OAK 41-54 (4.43 RPG / 5.46 RA)

3 - 6

CHW 49-45 (4.73 RPG / 4.45 RA)

WINNER: CHW wins 6-3 TARGET: OAK 3 - 6 CHW (CHW) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	5
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	x	6	7

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.100

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed7.1

Run Diff-37.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.900

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed0.8

Run Diff28.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

OAK Season Quality

Record41-53

Win%0.436

Run Diff-97

RD/Game-1.032

CHW Season Quality

Record48-45

Win%0.516

Run Diff26

RD/Game0.280

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.4314; margin adjustment: 0.6012; applied: True

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jacob Wilson	SS	54	216	60	0.278	4	26	0.311	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.250	0.287	0.346	OK
Tyler Soderstrom	DH	83	296	72	0.243	14	42	0.344	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.230	0.322	0.446	OK
Shea Langeliers	C	84	342	89	0.260	20	45	0.328	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.223	0.286	0.380	OK
Jonah Heim	1B	37	117	28	0.239	8	21	0.291	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.231	0.280	0.425	OK
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer	3B	10	37	16	0.432	0	1	0.447	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.299	0.306	0.429	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	80	235	47	0.200	5	22	0.291	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.212	0.296	0.320	OK
Carlos Cortes	LF	69	200	56	0.280	6	23	0.356	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.175	0.241	0.293	OK
Jeff McNeil	2B	83	263	60	0.228	3	26	0.290	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.216	0.265	0.304	OK
Henry Bolte	CF	49	170	47	0.276	3	16	0.352	4	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.207	0.260	0.325	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	5	3	3	2	6	0.156

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Tristan Peters	CF	68	194	56	0.289	3	24	0.344	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.178	0.236	0.337	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	74	271	59	0.218	20	45	0.312	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.216	0.286	0.459	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	74	281	76	0.270	6	25	0.334	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.249	0.304	0.359	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	75	275	65	0.236	16	44	0.350	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.229	0.319	0.391	OK
Kyle Teel	C	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	3	1	1	3	0	2	0.333	0.254	0.318	0.417
Sam Antonacci	SS	58	199	58	0.291	4	22	0.391	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.303	0.361	0.498	OK
Braden Montgomery	OF	12	42	11	0.262	1	5	0.311	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.250	0.302	0.439	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	69	214	50	0.234	9	37	0.292	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.228	0.287	0.469	OK
Luisangel Acuña	SS	48	130	28	0.215	1	10	0.262	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.247	0.282	0.359	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	7	6	6	3	8	0.226

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gage Jump	Starter	8	42.3	3.83	1.324	8.7	41	5.0	2	2	2	1	7	90	5.0	7	2
Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	25	23.6	5.72	1.314	13.3	35	1.2	1	1	1	0	0	24	1.2	0	1
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	44	32.6	4.42	1.994	14.9	54	1.1	4	3	3	2	1	30	1.1	1	3

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Davis Martin	Starter	14	79.8	3.38	1.216	9.4	83	6.0	4	1	1	0	4	94	6.0	4	1
Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	2	1.1	16.36	3.636	0.0	0	1.0	1	2	2	2	2	22	1.0	2	2
Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	1.48	1.311	11.8	8	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	24	20.9	1.72	1.483	9.9	23	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

CHW wins 6-3

Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers

PHI 52-43 (4.37 RPG / 4.55 RA)

2 - 4

DET 44-50 (4.31 RPG / 3.98 RA)

WINNER: DET wins 4-2 TARGET: PHI 2 - 4 DET (DET) Confidence: 63.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PHI	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	8
DET	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	x	4	8

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed5.2

Run Diff-14.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

DET Recent Form

Win%0.900

Avg Runs5.4

Avg Allowed2.3

Run Diff31.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak

PHI Season Quality

Record52-43

Win%0.547

Run Diff-17

RD/Game-0.179

DET Season Quality

Record44-50

Win%0.468

Run Diff31

RD/Game0.330

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3898; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trea Turner	SS	89	376	90	0.239	10	32	0.282	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.225	0.263	0.351	OK
Kyle Schwarber	DH	89	339	85	0.251	31	57	0.362	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.230	0.334	0.474	OK
Bryce Harper	1B	93	329	85	0.258	20	57	0.367	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.199	0.329	0.361	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	88	329	101	0.307	15	46	0.342	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.252	0.292	0.413	OK
Alec Bohm	3B	89	330	72	0.218	11	46	0.283	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.203	0.261	0.336	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	88	309	75	0.243	7	40	0.304	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.233	0.297	0.360	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	64	221	44	0.199	7	28	0.278	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.201	0.261	0.371	OK
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	RF	20	63	12	0.190	2	6	0.224	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.214	0.242	0.359	OK
Derek Hill	CF	16	45	16	0.356	3	7	0.370	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.174	0.209	0.317	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	35	8	2	2	5	7	0.229

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Matt Vierling	CF	71	228	43	0.189	5	29	0.244	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.137	0.197	0.260	OK
Kevin McGonigle	3B	90	338	97	0.287	8	34	0.398	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.280	0.378	0.438	OK
Dillon Dingler	DH	84	314	84	0.268	19	60	0.327	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.251	0.292	0.434	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	92	314	66	0.210	16	42	0.309	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.225	0.310	0.451	OK
Riley Greene	LF	92	333	98	0.294	13	45	0.387	4	3	2	1	3	1	0	0.667	0.286	0.384	0.516	OK
Eduardo Valencia	C	2	5	3	0.600	1	2	0.667	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.170	0.183	0.295	MODERATE
Hao-Yu Lee	2B	52	146	36	0.247	4	15	0.281	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.239	0.274	0.417	OK
Ben Malgeri	RF	7	20	5	0.250	0	4	0.304	3	3	2	1	0	0	0	0.667	0.207	0.279	0.323	OK
Zach McKinstry	SS	66	208	42	0.202	4	19	0.282	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.214	0.296	0.345	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	32	8	4	4	1	8	0.250

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	19	118.7	2.65	1.179	10.4	137	6.0	5	1	1	1	6	95	6.0	6	1
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	32	31.2	0.87	0.865	14.4	50	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	38	32.5	2.77	1.323	11.1	40	1.0	3	3	3	0	1	11	1.0	1	3

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Casey Mize	Starter	13	68.4	2.76	1.023	9.5	72	6.0	5	2	2	3	6	107	6.0	6	2
Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	25	20.8	4.33	1.250	10.4	24	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	20	1.0	0	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	39	37.9	1.90	1.557	7.6	32	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	39	34.0	3.97	1.618	9.0	34	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

DET wins 4-2

Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays

SEA 47-49 (4.0 RPG / 3.9 RA)

4 - 3

TB 56-37 (4.55 RPG / 4.14 RA)

WINNER: SEA wins 4-3 TARGET: SEA 4 - 3 TB (SEA) Confidence: 56.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	9
TB	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	7

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff12.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff3.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SEA Season Quality

Record47-48

Win%0.495

Run Diff15

RD/Game0.158

TB Season Quality

Record55-37

Win%0.598

Run Diff33

RD/Game0.359

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3554; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
J.P. Crawford	SS	77	276	59	0.214	10	25	0.331	5	5	2	1	0	0	2	0.400	0.213	0.315	0.321	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	87	318	91	0.286	10	42	0.378	5	4	3	1	2	1	1	0.750	0.262	0.335	0.438	OK
Dominic Canzone	DH	80	223	59	0.265	15	40	0.331	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.252	0.308	0.500	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	63	236	39	0.165	9	29	0.262	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.194	0.279	0.323	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	88	346	87	0.251	8	36	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.237	0.296	0.320	OK
Luke Raley	RF	79	233	54	0.232	14	36	0.291	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.237	0.273	0.404	OK
Cole Young	2B	95	340	86	0.253	11	43	0.315	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.228	0.284	0.430	OK
Victor Robles	CF	31	92	20	0.217	0	4	0.265	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.189	0.233	0.250	OK
Colt Emerson	3B	44	141	29	0.206	7	19	0.282	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.206	0.272	0.340	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	36	9	4	4	3	9	0.250

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	88	336	108	0.321	13	55	0.400	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.274	0.333	0.426	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	91	333	97	0.291	13	61	0.389	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.277	0.361	0.407	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	92	350	98	0.280	28	59	0.370	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.333	0.233	0.317	0.493	OK
Cedric Mullins	CF	79	273	56	0.205	11	30	0.284	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.199	0.264	0.364	OK
Jonny DeLuca	RF	50	161	42	0.261	5	25	0.300	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.243	0.285	0.419	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	83	322	91	0.283	0	17	0.317	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.190	0.227	0.288	OK
Ben Williamson	SS	63	194	46	0.237	2	21	0.305	4	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.232	0.292	0.335	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	65	192	47	0.245	3	27	0.336	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.174	0.256	0.311	OK
Nick Fortes	C	67	202	52	0.257	2	19	0.301	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.253	0.279	0.396	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	7	3	3	2	11	0.212

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Logan Gilbert	Starter	18	105.0	3.26	0.971	9.8	114	6.1	2	1	1	1	7	101	6.1	7	1
Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	35	31.7	3.97	1.293	13.9	49	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	42	33.9	3.45	1.534	8.5	32	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	43	33.8	2.40	1.450	10.4	39	0.2	2	1	1	1	2	18	0.2	2	1

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Griffin Jax	Starter	23	62.2	3.33	1.206	9.8	68	5.2	7	3	3	2	7	100	5.2	7	3
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	38	35.4	1.78	0.847	10.4	41	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	14	1.0	1	0
Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	40	37.7	2.86	1.061	7.6	32	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	30	24.1	4.11	1.411	13.4	36	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Casey Legumina	Middle Reliever	21	22.7	3.57	1.366	7.5	19	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	19	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

SEA wins 4-3

Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres

TOR 45-49 (4.05 RPG / 4.4 RA)

4 - 2

SD 46-48 (3.89 RPG / 4.37 RA)

WINNER: TOR wins 4-2 TARGET: TOR 4 - 2 SD (TOR) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	8
SD	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	4

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff0.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SD Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed6.2

Run Diff-28.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak

TOR Season Quality

Record44-49

Win%0.473

Run Diff-35

RD/Game-0.376

SD Season Quality

Record46-47

Win%0.495

Run Diff-43

RD/Game-0.462

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0538; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ernie Clement	2B	91	349	104	0.298	7	30	0.319	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.279	0.301	0.390	OK
Nathan Lukes	RF	59	191	55	0.288	4	17	0.341	4	4	2	1	1	0	2	0.500	0.264	0.314	0.358	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	88	328	86	0.262	5	38	0.340	4	2	1	0	0	1	1	0.500	0.240	0.318	0.363	OK
George Springer	DH	65	252	56	0.222	9	22	0.309	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.235	0.306	0.392	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	90	332	79	0.238	22	62	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.235	0.299	0.471	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	75	272	66	0.243	7	24	0.308	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.210	0.269	0.333	OK
Alejandro Kirk	C	24	85	16	0.188	2	8	0.255	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.205	0.274	0.317	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	86	282	66	0.234	7	37	0.280	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.231	0.265	0.347	OK
Jonatan Clase	LF	4	11	3	0.273	1	3	0.273	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.141	0.153	0.234	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	4	4	1	13	0.229

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	92	365	103	0.282	5	34	0.343	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.249	0.300	0.358	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	90	353	77	0.218	10	38	0.274	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.228	0.277	0.354	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	89	311	70	0.225	9	37	0.314	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.201	0.278	0.318	OK
Manny Machado	DH	91	331	65	0.196	19	52	0.287	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.235	0.328	0.471	OK
Gavin Sheets	LF	87	275	62	0.225	14	39	0.319	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.204	0.294	0.349	OK
Ty France	1B	62	201	52	0.259	10	30	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.231	0.268	0.393	OK
Jake Cronenworth	2B	43	135	24	0.178	3	10	0.275	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.220	0.287	0.353	OK
Luis Campusano	C	25	66	21	0.318	4	11	0.416	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.283	0.381	0.524	OK
Sung-Mun Song	3B	31	80	17	0.212	1	10	0.308	3	3	2	1	1	0	1	0.667	0.178	0.272	0.266	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	4	2	2	4	8	0.129

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trey Yesavage	Starter	13	71.0	3.42	1.113	8.6	68	6.0	3	1	1	3	6	100	6.0	6	1
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	44	45.5	1.19	1.055	13.3	67	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	44	39.4	1.83	1.244	4.8	21	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	43	35.9	4.76	1.532	16.0	64	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Walker Buehler	Starter	18	84.2	5.24	1.437	8.6	80	5.0	5	2	2	1	8	96	5.0	8	2
Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	36	35.1	1.03	0.855	17.7	69	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	42	40.0	4.05	1.275	12.6	56	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.0	0	0
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	36	33.4	2.43	1.317	10.0	37	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	17	1.0	2	1
Kyle Hart	Middle Reliever	22	29.4	5.82	1.190	8.6	28	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	27	1.0	1	1

Game Summary

TOR wins 4-2

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers

ARI Recent Form

LAD Recent Form

ARI Season Quality

LAD Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals

ATL Recent Form

STL Recent Form

ATL Season Quality

STL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets

BOS Recent Form

NYM Recent Form

BOS Season Quality

NYM Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds

CHC Recent Form

CIN Recent Form

CHC Season Quality

CIN Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins

CLE Recent Form

MIA Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

MIA Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants

COL Recent Form

SF Recent Form

COL Season Quality

SF Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers

HOU Recent Form

TEX Recent Form

HOU Season Quality

TEX Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles