MLB Predictions — July 9, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
ARI @ SD	4 - 3	4 - 3	ARI	ARI	ARI wins 4-3	63%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
ATL @ PIT	6 - 2	6 - 2	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 6-2	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BOS @ CHW	3 - 4	3 - 4	CHW	CHW	CHW wins 4-3	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ BAL	5 - 2	5 - 2	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 5-2	63%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ MIN	1 - 5	1 - 5	MIN	MIN	MIN wins 5-1	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
COL @ SF	5 - 4	5 - 4	COL	COL	COL wins 5-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
KC @ NYM	4 - 3	4 - 3	KC	KC	KC wins 4-3	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAA @ TEX	3 - 6	3 - 6	TEX	TEX	TEX wins 6-3	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ STL	5 - 2	5 - 2	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 5-2	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYY @ TB	3 - 2	3 - 2	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 3-2	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
OAK @ DET	2 - 6	2 - 6	DET	DET	DET wins 6-2	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PHI @ CIN	4 - 3	4 - 3	PHI	PHI	PHI wins 4-3	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SEA @ MIA	4 - 2	4 - 2	SEA	SEA	SEA wins 4-2	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres

ARI 45-47 (4.24 RPG / 4.57 RA)

4 - 3

SD 46-46 (3.93 RPG / 4.38 RA)

WINNER: ARI wins 4-3 TARGET: ARI 4 - 3 SD (ARI) Confidence: 63.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	4	8
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	10

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.900

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed0.5

Run Diff32.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

SD Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed6.6

Run Diff-27.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

ARI Season Quality

Record45-46

Win%0.495

Run Diff-24

RD/Game-0.264

SD Season Quality

Record45-46

Win%0.495

Run Diff-47

RD/Game-0.516

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2527; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Tommy Troy	OF	23	75	18	0.240	3	5	0.321	5	4	2	1	2	1	0	0.500	0.245	0.316	0.423	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	75	257	61	0.237	4	27	0.354	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.223	0.346	0.332	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	73	297	78	0.263	12	46	0.315	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.277	0.329	0.461	OK
Ildemaro Vargas	1B	62	230	60	0.261	7	37	0.299	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.199	0.255	0.312	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	51	174	48	0.276	6	25	0.358	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.280	0.356	0.460	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	73	247	59	0.239	8	32	0.315	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.233	0.294	0.346	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	75	278	79	0.284	13	42	0.372	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	0.333	0.279	0.357	0.543	OK
Max Kepler	LF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.245	0.310	0.403
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	LF	30	112	23	0.205	1	13	0.260	4	4	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.197	0.244	0.282	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	35	8	4	4	4	5	0.229

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	90	356	101	0.284	5	34	0.346	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.272	0.322	0.407	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	88	345	76	0.220	10	37	0.275	5	5	1	1	2	0	3	0.200	0.236	0.279	0.362	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	87	302	69	0.228	8	35	0.319	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.225	0.305	0.317	OK
Manny Machado	3B	89	324	61	0.188	18	51	0.282	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.201	0.303	0.412	OK
Gavin Sheets	LF	85	270	62	0.230	14	39	0.320	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.225	0.304	0.385	OK
Jake Cronenworth	1B	41	131	24	0.183	3	10	0.282	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	0.333	0.226	0.295	0.358	OK
Luis Campusano	C	23	63	20	0.317	4	11	0.403	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.293	0.375	0.556	OK
Miguel Andujar	DH	67	222	59	0.266	5	21	0.300	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.264	0.289	0.431	OK
Sung-Mun Song	2B	30	77	17	0.221	1	10	0.318	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.189	0.286	0.279	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	37	10	3	3	2	12	0.270

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	15	86.7	2.49	1.257	6.7	65	6.2	5	0	0	2	10	111	6.2	10	0
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	2	2.1	0.00	0.476	8.6	2	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	2	1.2	15.00	3.333	7.5	1	0.1	5	3	3	0	1	20	0.1	1	3

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Griffin Canning	Starter	12	48.9	6.99	1.677	9.2	50	4.1	6	4	4	4	3	89	4.1	3	4
Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	36	35.1	1.03	0.855	17.7	69	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	41	39.0	4.15	1.308	12.5	54	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	35	32.3	2.51	1.362	9.8	35	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Kyle Hart	Middle Reliever	22	29.4	5.82	1.190	8.6	28	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12	1.0	1	0
Yuki Matsui	Middle Reliever	23	26.9	2.34	1.487	11.7	35	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	22	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

ARI wins 4-3

Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates

ATL 54-39 (4.9 RPG / 3.94 RA)

6 - 2

PIT 47-47 (5.23 RPG / 4.88 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 6-2 TARGET: ATL 6 - 2 PIT (ATL) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	2	6	10
PIT	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	3

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.2

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff1.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs6.4

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff13.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak

ATL Season Quality

Record53-39

Win%0.576

Run Diff85

RD/Game0.924

PIT Season Quality

Record47-46

Win%0.505

Run Diff38

RD/Game0.409

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6214; margin adjustment: -0.261; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Michael Harris II	CF	85	317	98	0.309	16	53	0.338	5	4	3	1	1	1	1	0.750	0.303	0.330	0.494	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	92	353	96	0.272	14	50	0.321	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.253	0.299	0.411	OK
Matt Olson	1B	92	357	96	0.269	24	57	0.338	5	4	3	1	3	1	0	0.750	0.249	0.314	0.512	OK
Drake Baldwin	C	69	266	68	0.256	16	45	0.341	5	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.245	0.313	0.411	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	88	327	90	0.275	9	50	0.331	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.273	0.327	0.436	OK
Dominic Smith	DH	69	202	54	0.267	6	33	0.298	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.238	0.268	0.352	OK
Austin Riley	3B	92	330	69	0.209	9	41	0.287	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.222	0.283	0.368	OK
Mike Yastrzemski	RF	80	224	51	0.228	5	23	0.310	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.251	0.327	0.407	OK
Jim Jarvis	SS	6	19	4	0.211	0	1	0.250	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.231	0.272	0.314	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	37	10	6	6	3	7	0.270

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake Mangum	CF	64	217	65	0.300	1	15	0.346	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.265	0.304	0.341	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	86	340	84	0.247	21	64	0.319	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.333	0.247	0.313	0.448	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	93	338	95	0.281	13	56	0.395	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.259	0.364	0.465	OK
Esmerlyn Valdez	RF	24	78	23	0.295	6	17	0.356	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.271	0.336	0.500	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	DH	76	294	86	0.293	16	61	0.346	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.289	0.345	0.528	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	86	325	101	0.311	4	41	0.366	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.306	0.360	0.407	OK
Tyler Callihan	1B	25	69	18	0.261	3	15	0.350	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.156	0.244	0.299	OK
Rafael Flores Jr.	C	1	3	2	0.667	1	2	0.750	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.116	0.310	0.669	MODERATE
Jared Triolo	SS	55	178	42	0.236	1	14	0.310	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.225	0.289	0.338	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	30	3	2	2	3	14	0.100

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bryce Elder	Starter	17	96.1	4.12	1.259	7.8	83	5.2	3	2	2	1	10	98	5.2	10	2
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	30	30.4	2.37	1.151	10.4	35	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	43	36.2	1.74	0.773	12.7	51	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	1.0	2	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	29	32.4	2.78	1.265	11.4	41	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	21	1.1	1	0

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Mitch Keller	Starter	18	98.7	5.11	1.327	6.7	74	5.1	6	4	4	2	5	97	5.1	5	4
Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	39	36.0	5.00	1.389	8.8	35	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	24	1.1	1	0
Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	36	29.7	4.55	1.515	16.1	53	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	37	35.9	3.76	1.031	11.0	44	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	23	1.1	1	2

Game Summary

ATL wins 6-2

Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox

BOS 43-48 (4.09 RPG / 3.89 RA)

3 - 4

CHW 47-45 (4.67 RPG / 4.53 RA)

WINNER: CHW wins 4-3 TARGET: BOS 3 - 4 CHW (CHW) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	9
CHW	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	x	4	6

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs4.9

Avg Allowed3.0

Run Diff19.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.900

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed0.9

Run Diff27.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

BOS Season Quality

Record42-48

Win%0.467

Run Diff17

RD/Game0.189

CHW Season Quality

Record47-44

Win%0.516

Run Diff14

RD/Game0.154

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0397; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Anthony Seigler	2B	18	58	17	0.293	1	3	0.379	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.164	0.252	0.312	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	84	325	93	0.286	8	39	0.333	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.277	0.311	0.437	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	88	338	88	0.260	10	41	0.331	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.227	0.306	0.373	OK
Romy Gonzalez	DH	7	26	8	0.308	1	5	0.357	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.273	0.303	0.493	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	81	271	61	0.225	8	37	0.289	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.225	0.286	0.405	OK
Andruw Monasterio	SS	51	148	33	0.223	4	13	0.263	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.152	0.197	0.299	OK
Nate Eaton	LF	10	28	4	0.143	1	4	0.273	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.104	0.202	0.221	OK
Brett Harris	1B	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.105	0.261	0.166
Connor Wong	C	36	102	30	0.294	1	15	0.387	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.189	0.287	0.295	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	36	9	3	3	0	4	0.250

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Tristan Peters	CF	68	194	56	0.289	3	24	0.344	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.165	0.224	0.322	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	74	271	59	0.218	20	45	0.312	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.202	0.271	0.431	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	74	281	76	0.270	6	25	0.334	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.234	0.288	0.339	OK
Jacob Gonzalez	SS	17	48	8	0.167	1	5	0.273	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.192	0.258	0.271	OK
Kyle Teel	C	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.239	0.304	0.395
Miguel Vargas	3B	75	275	65	0.236	16	44	0.350	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.216	0.309	0.372	OK
Braden Montgomery	OF	12	42	11	0.262	1	5	0.311	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.234	0.287	0.420	OK
Sam Antonacci	SS	58	199	58	0.291	4	22	0.391	3	3	2	1	0	0	0	0.667	0.273	0.333	0.457	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	69	214	50	0.234	9	37	0.292	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.208	0.268	0.440	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	30	6	4	4	3	5	0.200

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Patrick Sandoval	Starter	0	0	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	3.0	5	4	4	2	4	65	3.0	4	4
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	27	26.2	1.37	1.145	12.0	35	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	25	2.0	0	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	31	29.3	2.46	0.990	10.4	34	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	25	2.0	0	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	24	16.7	7.54	1.976	15.1	28	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Davis Martin	Starter	14	79.8	3.38	1.216	9.4	83	6.0	6	2	2	0	3	94	6.0	3	2
Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	2	1.1	16.36	3.636	0.0	0	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	10	1.0	0	1
Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	1.48	1.311	11.8	8	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	24	20.9	1.72	1.483	9.9	23	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

CHW wins 4-3

Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles

CHC 52-41 (5.06 RPG / 4.53 RA)

5 - 2

BAL 43-51 (4.55 RPG / 4.89 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 5-2 TARGET: CHC 5 - 2 BAL (CHC) Confidence: 63.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	5	6
BAL	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	7

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs6.3

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff21.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed5.0

Run Diff-14.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

CHC Season Quality

Record52-40

Win%0.565

Run Diff51

RD/Game0.554

BAL Season Quality

Record42-51

Win%0.452

Run Diff-33

RD/Game-0.355

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0796; margin adjustment: -0.4534; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	91	341	102	0.299	21	52	0.390	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.310	0.388	0.571	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	89	350	85	0.243	7	35	0.340	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.244	0.325	0.357	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	76	285	74	0.260	14	45	0.342	5	4	1	1	2	1	0	0.250	0.235	0.306	0.419	OK
Carson Kelly	DH	63	205	58	0.283	5	30	0.372	5	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.289	0.380	0.449	OK
Michael Busch	1B	90	327	77	0.235	11	48	0.371	5	3	1	1	1	2	0	0.333	0.236	0.358	0.387	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	89	357	86	0.241	4	38	0.312	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.251	0.315	0.346	OK
Ian Happ	LF	86	324	71	0.219	17	41	0.326	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.208	0.297	0.377	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	86	294	63	0.214	16	58	0.301	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.238	0.311	0.429	OK
Miguel Amaya	C	41	124	29	0.234	3	13	0.340	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.234	0.312	0.360	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	33	6	5	5	6	8	0.182

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Adley Rutschman	DH	61	230	60	0.261	8	47	0.324	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.244	0.301	0.395	OK
Taylor Ward	LF	90	340	87	0.256	5	23	0.382	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.241	0.358	0.338	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	90	373	82	0.220	15	39	0.291	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.200	0.262	0.322	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	91	342	87	0.254	20	62	0.343	4	3	2	0	0	0	0	0.667	0.244	0.325	0.436	OK
Tyler O'Neill	RF	52	142	28	0.197	5	11	0.301	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.238	0.331	0.532	OK
Coby Mayo	3B	67	214	42	0.196	11	33	0.270	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.212	0.281	0.414	OK
Samuel Basallo	C	76	257	65	0.253	14	42	0.312	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.229	0.293	0.439	OK
Blaze Alexander	2B	67	206	64	0.311	3	28	0.362	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.259	0.305	0.372	OK
Leody Taveras	CF	74	240	57	0.238	3	31	0.313	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.122	0.213	0.247	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	34	7	2	2	3	8	0.206

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
David Peterson	Starter	2	8.4	12.86	2.024	5.4	5	4.1	6	2	2	2	6	85	4.1	6	2
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	40	35.7	3.53	1.457	11.8	47	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.1	1	0
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	28	21.0	5.14	1.476	13.7	32	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	23	25.8	2.79	1.085	4.5	13	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Ryan Rolison	Middle Reliever	30	27.7	3.57	1.516	11.4	35	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trevor Rogers	Starter	16	81.3	4.87	1.365	7.2	65	5.2	4	3	3	5	6	114	5.2	6	3
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	38	23.4	2.69	1.154	10.4	27	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	16	0.2	0	0
Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever	33	39.4	3.20	1.117	10.1	44	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.1	0	0
Grant Wolfram	Middle Reliever	32	18.5	6.32	1.784	14.1	29	1.0	2	2	2	1	2	23	1.0	2	2
Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	42	34.9	3.09	0.974	10.8	42	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	13	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

CHC wins 5-2

Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins

CLE 48-46 (3.97 RPG / 4.06 RA)

1 - 5

MIN 46-48 (4.88 RPG / 5.06 RA)

WINNER: MIN wins 5-1 TARGET: CLE 1 - 5 MIN (MIN) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	5	11

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff-8.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.2

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff20.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CLE Season Quality

Record47-46

Win%0.505

Run Diff-12

RD/Game-0.129

MIN Season Quality

Record46-47

Win%0.495

Run Diff-14

RD/Game-0.151

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0376; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Travis Bazzana	2B	61	228	56	0.246	7	27	0.338	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.224	0.306	0.347	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	89	300	82	0.273	7	40	0.340	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.267	0.319	0.415	OK
Chase DeLauter	DH	74	280	79	0.282	8	42	0.345	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.277	0.336	0.429	OK
Kyle Manzardo	1B	82	256	56	0.219	10	29	0.308	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.195	0.272	0.320	OK
Kahlil Watson	RF	19	63	14	0.222	1	9	0.258	4	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.220	0.257	0.327	OK
Gabriel Arias	3B	24	77	17	0.221	4	9	0.259	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.226	0.267	0.394	OK
Daniel Schneemann	CF	74	232	49	0.211	6	28	0.280	3	2	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.215	0.274	0.321	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	29	86	18	0.209	1	7	0.250	3	2	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.196	0.244	0.285	OK
Steven Kwan	LF	82	283	63	0.223	1	14	0.325	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.240	0.338	0.334	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	29	3	1	1	3	11	0.103

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trevor Larnach	LF	73	238	68	0.286	6	29	0.373	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.195	0.287	0.347	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	86	329	83	0.252	14	49	0.306	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.260	0.310	0.389	OK
Kody Clemens	2B	78	286	73	0.255	16	45	0.316	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.198	0.253	0.429	OK
Josh Bell	DH	90	328	82	0.250	13	60	0.309	5	4	1	1	4	1	0	0.250	0.266	0.324	0.496	OK
Royce Lewis	1B	59	214	45	0.210	8	26	0.290	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.219	0.296	0.363	OK
Alan Roden	RF	1	5	2	0.400	0	2	0.400	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.242	0.250	0.336	OK
Luke Keaschall	CF	86	296	76	0.257	4	27	0.343	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.287	0.363	0.448	OK
Tristan Gray	SS	55	159	36	0.226	4	28	0.267	4	3	3	1	0	1	0	1.000	0.203	0.245	0.299	OK
Alex Jackson	C	17	51	16	0.314	1	4	0.340	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.257	0.263	0.408	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	37	11	5	5	3	7	0.297

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gavin Williams	Starter	18	104.7	3.95	1.203	10.6	123	5.1	3	2	2	3	4	103	5.1	4	2
Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	39	39.0	3.00	1.205	13.6	59	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	21	1.0	1	0
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	32	23.0	3.13	1.565	9.8	25	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	14	0.2	1	0
Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	32	29.0	1.86	0.897	11.8	38	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever	33	21.4	4.21	1.495	20.2	48	0.0	4	2	2	0	0	14	0.0	0	2

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Joe Ryan	Starter	19	103.4	2.87	1.044	10.6	122	5.2	1	0	0	2	7	107	5.2	7	0
Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	29	21.6	2.08	1.111	10.0	24	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	33	35.7	4.29	1.541	11.1	44	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	1.0	2	0
Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	39	24.8	6.53	2.097	10.9	30	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1

Game Summary

MIN wins 5-1

Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants

COL 38-56 (4.86 RPG / 5.71 RA)

5 - 4

SF 39-54 (4.13 RPG / 4.86 RA)

WINNER: COL wins 5-4 TARGET: COL 5 - 4 SF (COL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	0	0	1	0	1	0	3	0	0	5	8
SF	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	4	6

COL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs6.8

Avg Allowed5.7

Run Diff11.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak

SF Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed6.4

Run Diff-23.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

COL Season Quality

Record38-55

Win%0.409

Run Diff-79

RD/Game-0.849

SF Season Quality

Record39-54

Win%0.419

Run Diff-68

RD/Game-0.731

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1344; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	LF	73	265	80	0.302	9	50	0.339	5	4	2	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.270	0.300	0.482	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	86	258	69	0.267	8	31	0.368	5	3	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.275	0.368	0.514	OK
Cole Carrigg	CF	26	88	27	0.307	4	21	0.385	5	5	2	1	3	0	1	0.400	0.300	0.374	0.555	OK
Hunter Goodman	DH	86	324	81	0.250	27	51	0.318	5	5	1	1	0	0	2	0.200	0.272	0.338	0.515	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	88	321	96	0.299	12	46	0.376	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.287	0.352	0.437	OK
Tyler Freeman	RF	60	207	56	0.271	3	23	0.349	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.161	0.206	0.228	OK
Willi Castro	2B	78	279	74	0.265	6	35	0.338	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.235	0.301	0.333	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	85	300	62	0.207	8	32	0.249	4	3	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.193	0.236	0.353	OK
Braxton Fulford	C	29	54	10	0.185	1	7	0.270	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.108	0.187	0.202	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	34	8	5	5	4	8	0.235

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Heliot Ramos	RF	53	201	54	0.269	8	28	0.305	5	3	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.273	0.307	0.521	OK
Luis Arraez	2B	87	344	114	0.331	4	33	0.367	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.289	0.328	0.429	OK
Casey Schmitt	3B	83	331	91	0.275	17	44	0.301	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.239	0.252	0.414	OK
Rafael Devers	DH	92	349	86	0.246	18	47	0.315	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.243	0.318	0.493	OK
Willy Adames	SS	87	338	78	0.231	14	34	0.281	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.239	0.305	0.399	OK
Bryce Eldridge	1B	51	176	48	0.273	7	20	0.361	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.252	0.334	0.432	OK
Victor Bericoto	LF	20	55	17	0.309	4	9	0.321	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.181	0.201	0.349	OK
Drew Gilbert	CF	64	174	42	0.241	4	19	0.307	4	2	1	1	2	1	0	0.500	0.254	0.312	0.447	OK
Drew Cavanaugh	C	9	24	4	0.167	0	2	0.200	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.217	0.250	0.300	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	33	6	4	4	4	6	0.182

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Feltner	Starter	12	57.6	4.38	1.250	6.9	44	5.1	2	0	0	2	4	91	5.1	4	0
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	28	42.1	3.42	1.354	8.6	40	1.1	2	2	2	0	0	23	1.1	0	2
Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	3	3.0	0.00	1.333	15.0	5	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	22	20.9	3.88	1.340	10.3	24	1.1	2	2	2	2	1	31	1.1	1	2

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Logan Webb	Starter	16	100.1	3.87	1.159	7.2	80	6.1	7	2	2	1	6	117	6.1	6	2
Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	36	32.1	4.77	1.464	12.6	45	1.0	1	3	3	2	1	24	1.0	1	3
Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	28	19.8	4.09	1.818	15.0	33	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Sam Hentges	Middle Reliever	21	12.6	2.86	2.063	12.9	18	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	12	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

COL wins 5-4

Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets

KC 38-56 (4.31 RPG / 5.11 RA)

4 - 3

NYM 40-54 (4.19 RPG / 4.79 RA)

WINNER: KC wins 4-3 TARGET: KC 4 - 3 NYM (KC) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	4	7
NYM	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	10

KC Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff-4.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.9

Avg Allowed6.2

Run Diff-13.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

KC Season Quality

Record38-55

Win%0.409

Run Diff-71

RD/Game-0.763

NYM Season Quality

Record39-54

Win%0.419

Run Diff-60

RD/Game-0.645

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1344; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Lane Thomas	CF	73	215	50	0.233	6	28	0.336	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.275	0.365	0.463	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	86	340	98	0.288	12	37	0.357	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.261	0.325	0.410	OK
Salvador Perez	1B	84	331	71	0.215	11	36	0.256	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.245	0.272	0.394	OK
Starling Marte	DH	40	109	29	0.266	1	9	0.328	4	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.267	0.315	0.361	OK
Nick Loftin	3B	54	165	41	0.248	4	29	0.339	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.272	0.348	0.478	OK
Jac Caglianone	RF	85	300	76	0.253	14	33	0.316	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.151	0.205	0.282	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	79	251	60	0.239	4	26	0.348	4	4	3	1	1	0	1	0.750	0.266	0.361	0.411	OK
Tyler Tolbert	2B	21	51	19	0.373	2	5	0.411	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.200	0.253	0.315	OK
Luke Maile	C	1	4	1	0.250	1	3	0.400	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.222	0.362	0.383	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	34	7	4	4	0	10	0.206

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
A.J. Ewing	CF	53	179	50	0.279	7	24	0.360	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.282	0.350	0.517	OK
Juan Soto	LF	73	261	78	0.299	20	49	0.412	5	5	3	1	0	0	1	0.600	0.270	0.392	0.517	OK
Bo Bichette	SS	92	373	96	0.257	10	50	0.300	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.259	0.298	0.359	OK
Carson Benge	RF	88	338	90	0.266	11	36	0.328	5	5	2	0	0	0	1	0.400	0.273	0.333	0.431	OK
Francisco Alvarez	DH	59	197	49	0.249	9	21	0.313	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.249	0.300	0.392	OK
Jared Young	1B	45	132	30	0.227	6	16	0.301	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.153	0.210	0.246	OK
Mark Vientos	3B	72	237	50	0.211	11	35	0.253	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.131	0.183	0.273	OK
Brett Baty	2B	83	271	60	0.221	3	30	0.293	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.230	0.295	0.336	OK
Luis Torrens	C	53	156	34	0.218	2	18	0.274	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.143	0.192	0.263	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	37	10	3	3	3	8	0.270

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael Wacha	Starter	18	113.5	3.49	1.172	7.2	91	6.1	5	1	1	2	6	103	6.1	6	1
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	37	34.5	6.52	1.681	9.7	37	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	20	1.0	1	2
Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	35	32.8	4.66	1.616	6.9	25	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	38	32.9	2.74	1.094	8.8	32	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	13	0.2	1	0
John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	39	30.3	4.16	1.518	8.0	27	0.0	2	0	0	0	0	18	0.0	0	0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sean Manaea	Starter	19	65.2	5.38	1.426	9.4	68	5.1	6	3	3	0	8	85	5.1	8	3
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	32	27.1	4.65	1.661	14.3	43	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	10	1.1	2	0
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	36	35.9	2.01	0.891	10.5	42	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	37	28.2	2.55	1.418	11.5	36	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	20	1.1	0	1

Game Summary

KC wins 4-3

Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers

LAA 37-56 (4.46 RPG / 5.01 RA)

3 - 6

TEX 46-46 (4.09 RPG / 4.25 RA)

WINNER: TEX wins 6-3 TARGET: LAA 3 - 6 TEX (TEX) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAA	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	6
TEX	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	x	6	7

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff-8.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-9.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

LAA Season Quality

Record36-56

Win%0.391

Run Diff-63

RD/Game-0.685

TEX Season Quality

Record46-45

Win%0.505

Run Diff-3

RD/Game-0.033

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8231; margin adjustment: 0.3457; applied: True

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	90	355	83	0.234	19	45	0.326	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.245	0.312	0.452	OK
Mike Trout	CF	75	269	63	0.234	18	38	0.394	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.249	0.379	0.520	OK
Nolan Schanuel	1B	72	271	70	0.258	6	31	0.328	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.232	0.292	0.329	OK
Jorge Soler	DH	70	255	55	0.216	11	39	0.301	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.209	0.285	0.353	OK
Vaughn Grissom	2B	50	173	43	0.249	4	33	0.316	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.256	0.304	0.375	OK
Josh Lowe	RF	53	163	35	0.215	7	20	0.254	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.231	0.269	0.390	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	24	96	25	0.260	3	13	0.311	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.241	0.290	0.356	OK
Logan O'Hoppe	C	61	202	45	0.223	4	23	0.282	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.196	0.240	0.285	OK
Wade Meckler	LF	37	116	33	0.284	2	16	0.357	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.246	0.314	0.351	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	33	6	3	3	4	10	0.182

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Justin Foscue	2B	38	97	27	0.278	6	17	0.330	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.187	0.245	0.378	OK
Wyatt Langford	DH	40	162	45	0.278	8	20	0.324	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.279	0.318	0.515	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	86	330	84	0.255	8	30	0.326	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.217	0.285	0.366	OK
Josh Jung	3B	83	323	96	0.297	9	34	0.362	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.279	0.344	0.451	OK
Jake Burger	1B	88	324	79	0.244	15	53	0.308	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.218	0.278	0.376	OK
Ezequiel Duran	SS	81	283	76	0.269	7	45	0.318	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.169	0.220	0.291	OK
Kyle Higashioka	C	47	148	33	0.223	6	16	0.307	3	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.137	0.230	0.247	OK
Cameron Cauley	CF	6	16	3	0.188	0	0	0.278	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.215	0.293	0.390	OK
Alejandro Osuna	LF	57	161	41	0.255	1	18	0.348	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.257	0.329	0.355	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	31	7	6	6	2	6	0.226

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Reid Detmers	Starter	18	101.4	4.26	1.144	10.4	117	6.0	4	1	1	0	6	94	6.0	6	1
Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	33	34.9	4.90	1.490	10.1	39	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	36	37.7	4.30	1.406	13.8	58	1.0	3	5	5	2	0	23	1.0	0	5

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nathan Eovaldi	Starter	17	104.4	4.05	1.178	9.5	110	6.0	4	1	1	3	9	100	6.0	9	1
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	32	39.9	1.13	0.551	9.7	43	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.1	1	0
Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	25	29.3	3.07	1.195	11.1	36	1.1	2	2	2	0	0	6	1.1	0	2
Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	39	33.1	2.72	1.480	9.2	34	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	16	0.1	0	0
Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	33	26.8	7.39	1.604	10.7	32	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	16	0.0	0	0
Robby Ahlstrom	Middle Reliever	14	10.8	5.83	1.574	6.7	8	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

TEX wins 6-3

Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals

MIL 58-34 (5.09 RPG / 3.64 RA)

5 - 2

STL 48-43 (4.57 RPG / 4.49 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 5-2 TARGET: MIL 5 - 2 STL (MIL) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	3	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5	8
STL	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	5

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff6.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

STL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.1

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff16.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

MIL Season Quality

Record58-34

Win%0.630

Run Diff133

RD/Game1.446

STL Season Quality

Record48-43

Win%0.527

Run Diff7

RD/Game0.077

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.5232; margin adjustment: -0.6397; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Garrett Mitchell	CF	77	250	68	0.272	7	37	0.358	5	3	1	1	0	2	0	0.333	0.300	0.371	0.491	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	58	245	69	0.282	13	36	0.337	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.242	0.295	0.415	OK
Brice Turang	2B	86	337	91	0.270	12	54	0.362	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.270	0.352	0.446	OK
William Contreras	C	85	334	95	0.284	9	51	0.347	5	5	1	1	3	0	2	0.200	0.240	0.297	0.334	OK
Jake Bauers	DH	81	280	75	0.268	16	54	0.364	5	4	2	1	1	1	2	0.500	0.262	0.352	0.484	OK
Andrew Vaughn	1B	49	140	45	0.321	2	24	0.404	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.273	0.357	0.450	OK
Sal Frelick	RF	82	260	61	0.235	3	29	0.298	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.224	0.278	0.330	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	21	63	15	0.238	0	5	0.351	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.257	0.365	0.377	OK
Joey Ortiz	3B	68	199	45	0.226	3	22	0.290	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.257	0.312	0.388	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	35	8	5	5	6	9	0.229

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	84	333	88	0.264	13	35	0.358	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.247	0.311	0.376	OK
Iván Herrera	C	90	328	81	0.247	11	39	0.381	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.213	0.297	0.345	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	89	342	94	0.275	15	65	0.336	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.244	0.290	0.430	OK
Jordan Walker	DH	88	338	100	0.296	20	67	0.357	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.272	0.338	0.516	OK
Lars Nootbaar	RF	28	95	25	0.263	2	8	0.349	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.220	0.303	0.362	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	80	300	75	0.250	4	38	0.315	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.238	0.296	0.343	OK
Bryan Torres	LF	20	53	10	0.189	3	6	0.246	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.190	0.241	0.373	OK
José Fermín	3B	55	148	40	0.270	4	18	0.314	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.252	0.299	0.409	OK
Nathan Church	CF	68	228	56	0.246	8	27	0.288	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.197	0.237	0.339	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	32	5	2	2	1	7	0.156

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Grant Anderson	Starter	36	33.2	4.07	1.355	8.4	31	5.0	3	2	2	1	5	76	5.0	5	2
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	36	36.0	2.00	0.917	11.5	46	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	19	2.0	1	0
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	37	33.4	2.96	1.108	9.4	35	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	43	48.3	3.54	1.553	13.2	71	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andre Pallante	Starter	17	92.9	3.68	1.249	6.8	70	6.0	7	4	4	4	6	113	6.0	6	4
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	37	35.7	3.78	1.204	9.1	36	1.0	0	1	1	1	1	17	1.0	1	1
JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	42	33.3	4.32	1.622	11.4	42	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	39	33.2	3.80	1.295	8.7	32	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	38	28.6	5.66	1.783	12.3	39	0.0	1	0	0	1	0	13	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-2

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

NYY 51-42 (4.82 RPG / 3.9 RA)

3 - 2

TB 54-37 (4.51 RPG / 4.2 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 3-2 TARGET: NYY 3 - 2 TB (NYY) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	3	10
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	6

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs2.8

Avg Allowed5.2

Run Diff-24.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak

TB Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.5

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff16.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

NYY Season Quality

Record50-42

Win%0.543

Run Diff77

RD/Game0.837

TB Season Quality

Record54-36

Win%0.600

Run Diff36

RD/Game0.400

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3522; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trent Grisham	CF	70	243	56	0.230	9	37	0.331	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.222	0.312	0.387	OK
Ben Rice	DH	86	323	88	0.272	26	59	0.364	5	4	1	1	3	1	1	0.250	0.251	0.330	0.515	OK
Jasson Domínguez	RF	31	116	26	0.224	4	10	0.262	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.229	0.262	0.397	OK
Cody Bellinger	1B	90	331	81	0.245	11	50	0.339	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.207	0.296	0.338	OK
José Caballero	SS	78	260	64	0.246	10	33	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.231	0.269	0.411	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	86	304	68	0.224	12	33	0.300	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.216	0.290	0.343	OK
Max Schuemann	LF	21	46	10	0.217	2	6	0.357	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.130	0.248	0.301	OK
Ryan McMahon	3B	67	195	41	0.210	8	23	0.270	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.204	0.270	0.336	OK
Austin Wells	C	62	182	27	0.148	4	10	0.243	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.160	0.239	0.232	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	37	10	3	3	3	5	0.270

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	86	327	107	0.327	13	55	0.407	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.285	0.346	0.438	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	89	324	92	0.284	13	61	0.384	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.253	0.339	0.374	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	90	342	95	0.278	26	56	0.366	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.236	0.321	0.459	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	CF	26	80	15	0.188	4	10	0.283	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.217	0.309	0.374	OK
Ryan Vilade	RF	47	133	35	0.263	6	27	0.324	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.233	0.293	0.435	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	81	314	86	0.274	0	16	0.309	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.177	0.215	0.243	OK
Ben Williamson	2B	62	190	44	0.232	2	20	0.301	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.219	0.282	0.325	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	68	214	48	0.224	0	20	0.325	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.212	0.310	0.302	OK
Nick Fortes	C	66	199	51	0.256	2	19	0.297	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.243	0.261	0.383	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	6	2	2	1	11	0.182

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Paul Blackburn	Starter	30	40.0	2.48	1.275	7.2	32	5.0	1	0	0	0	6	73	5.0	6	0
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	42	27.6	3.26	1.775	15.7	48	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	20	1.0	2	0
Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	45	35.7	1.76	1.373	12.4	49	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Camilo Doval	Middle Reliever	39	29.3	5.53	1.604	10.8	35	1.1	4	2	2	0	2	29	1.1	2	2

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Drew Rasmussen	Starter	17	96.3	2.80	0.903	9.0	96	6.0	4	2	2	1	5	104	6.0	5	2
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	38	35.4	1.78	0.847	10.4	41	1.0	3	1	1	1	0	26	1.0	0	1
Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	39	35.7	3.03	1.120	7.8	31	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	22	1.1	0	0
Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	29	23.1	4.29	1.429	13.2	34	0.2	3	0	0	1	0	21	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 3-2

Oakland Athletics @ Detroit Tigers

OAK 41-51 (4.55 RPG / 5.43 RA)

2 - 6

DET 42-50 (4.25 RPG / 4.03 RA)

WINNER: DET wins 6-2 TARGET: OAK 2 - 6 DET (DET) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	8
DET	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	2	x	6	7

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.100

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed6.2

Run Diff-27.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

DET Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs5.2

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff19.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak

OAK Season Quality

Record41-51

Win%0.446

Run Diff-81

RD/Game-0.880

DET Season Quality

Record42-50

Win%0.457

Run Diff20

RD/Game0.217

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.1141; margin adjustment: 0.4679; applied: True

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer	3B	8	30	15	0.500	0	1	0.516	5	5	2	0	0	0	1	0.400	0.307	0.314	0.444	OK
Nick Kurtz	DH	91	330	89	0.270	20	66	0.409	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.218	0.340	0.405	OK
Shea Langeliers	C	82	337	88	0.261	20	45	0.326	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.230	0.285	0.407	OK
Jonah Heim	1B	35	109	27	0.248	8	21	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.241	0.296	0.471	OK
Jacob Wilson	SS	52	209	56	0.268	4	26	0.303	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.213	0.261	0.315	OK
Zack Gelof	LF	62	226	62	0.274	11	29	0.328	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.156	0.203	0.294	OK
Colby Thomas	RF	38	90	20	0.222	4	11	0.255	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.223	0.254	0.412	OK
Henry Bolte	CF	47	165	47	0.285	3	15	0.358	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.223	0.280	0.338	OK
Alika Williams	2B	25	77	22	0.286	2	8	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.148	0.183	0.294	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	2	2	2	9	0.229

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kevin McGonigle	3B	88	329	95	0.289	7	32	0.402	5	3	1	1	2	2	1	0.333	0.291	0.395	0.417	OK
Matt Vierling	RF	69	223	42	0.188	5	29	0.242	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.133	0.186	0.257	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	90	306	65	0.212	15	40	0.314	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.240	0.324	0.446	OK
Riley Greene	LF	90	328	97	0.296	13	45	0.384	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.294	0.374	0.533	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	2B	51	142	35	0.246	4	15	0.282	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.244	0.284	0.437	OK
Kerry Carpenter	DH	69	197	45	0.228	13	36	0.302	4	3	1	1	3	0	0	0.333	0.243	0.300	0.434	OK
Zach McKinstry	SS	64	201	41	0.204	3	16	0.286	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.251	0.330	0.362	OK
Jake Rogers	C	28	81	13	0.160	2	8	0.239	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.209	0.280	0.365	OK
James Outman	CF	17	51	8	0.157	3	8	0.218	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.097	0.154	0.194	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	30	7	6	6	5	8	0.233

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
José Suarez	Starter	20	25.5	3.88	1.412	9.9	28	4.0	4	4	4	3	5	86	4.0	5	4
Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	24	21.6	6.25	1.435	13.3	32	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	43	31.6	4.27	1.962	14.8	52	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.0	1	0
Mason Barnett	Middle Reliever	12	19.4	3.71	1.289	9.7	21	1.1	1	0	0	2	2	37	1.1	2	0
Justin Sterner	Middle Reliever	43	35.5	4.56	1.324	10.1	40	0.2	2	2	2	0	0	16	0.2	0	2

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Framber Valdez	Starter	18	99.5	4.34	1.397	7.1	78	5.2	5	1	1	0	7	91	5.2	7	1
Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	24	19.8	4.55	1.212	10.5	23	1.0	1	1	1	2	1	13	1.0	1	1
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	38	36.9	1.95	1.572	7.6	31	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0
Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	39	34.0	3.97	1.618	9.0	34	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Drew Anderson	Middle Reliever	33	49.3	4.75	1.460	12.4	68	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	24	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

DET wins 6-2

Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds

PHI 51-42 (4.43 RPG / 4.54 RA)

4 - 3

CIN 42-49 (4.22 RPG / 4.85 RA)

WINNER: PHI wins 4-3 TARGET: PHI 4 - 3 CIN (PHI) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PHI	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	7
CIN	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	9

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed5.6

Run Diff-8.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-10.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

PHI Season Quality

Record51-42

Win%0.548

Run Diff-10

RD/Game-0.108

CIN Season Quality

Record42-49

Win%0.462

Run Diff-57

RD/Game-0.626

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6491; margin adjustment: -0.2726; applied: True

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trea Turner	SS	87	369	90	0.244	10	32	0.286	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.249	0.282	0.377	OK
Kyle Schwarber	DH	87	332	84	0.253	31	57	0.365	5	5	2	1	2	0	2	0.400	0.259	0.361	0.520	OK
Bryce Harper	1B	91	322	85	0.264	20	57	0.372	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.222	0.348	0.404	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	86	321	98	0.305	15	46	0.341	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.245	0.286	0.413	OK
Alec Bohm	3B	87	324	72	0.222	11	46	0.284	4	3	2	1	2	1	1	0.667	0.233	0.297	0.398	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	86	302	74	0.245	7	40	0.305	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.260	0.317	0.389	OK
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	RF	18	57	12	0.211	2	6	0.233	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.250	0.278	0.428	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	63	218	44	0.202	7	28	0.282	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.208	0.272	0.386	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	84	259	66	0.255	2	19	0.306	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.279	0.322	0.394	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	34	7	4	4	4	10	0.206

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Elly De La Cruz	SS	71	281	78	0.278	14	43	0.353	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.256	0.337	0.455	OK
Sal Stewart	3B	90	343	89	0.259	19	64	0.344	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.246	0.323	0.491	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	62	223	54	0.242	14	39	0.350	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.237	0.335	0.420	OK
Spencer Steer	1B	85	300	73	0.243	14	36	0.320	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.249	0.322	0.419	OK
Eugenio Suárez	DH	62	224	46	0.205	9	32	0.278	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.205	0.278	0.369	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	67	214	50	0.234	6	24	0.320	4	2	1	0	0	2	0	0.500	0.261	0.340	0.399	OK
Noelvi Marte	RF	35	117	24	0.205	6	13	0.250	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.218	0.258	0.417	OK
Edwin Arroyo	2B	26	85	21	0.247	0	4	0.293	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.220	0.246	0.321	OK
TJ Friedl	CF	54	180	31	0.172	3	11	0.254	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.169	0.239	0.283	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	36	9	3	3	3	9	0.250

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jesús Luzardo	Starter	18	100.3	3.86	1.306	11.2	125	6.0	5	2	2	3	5	106	6.0	5	2
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	31	30.2	0.89	0.861	14.3	48	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	38	32.5	2.77	1.323	11.1	40	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	19	1.0	2	0
José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	38	27.1	8.30	2.103	14.9	45	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	22	1.0	1	1

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brady Singer	Starter	17	80.7	5.13	1.574	7.9	71	4.2	5	3	3	2	4	100	4.2	4	3
Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	16	14.4	6.88	1.597	8.1	13	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	26	22.5	2.80	1.067	9.6	24	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	21	1.1	3	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	45	36.8	3.67	1.630	9.3	38	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Caleb Ferguson	Middle Reliever	18	13.8	2.61	1.739	11.1	17	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1

Game Summary

PHI wins 4-3

Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins

SEA 47-46 (4.05 RPG / 3.8 RA)

4 - 2

MIA 51-42 (4.58 RPG / 4.29 RA)

WINNER: SEA wins 4-2 TARGET: SEA 4 - 2 MIA (SEA) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	6
MIA	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	3

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed2.3

Run Diff20.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs6.2

Avg Allowed5.2

Run Diff10.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak

SEA Season Quality

Record47-46

Win%0.505

Run Diff24

RD/Game0.258

MIA Season Quality

Record51-42

Win%0.548

Run Diff27

RD/Game0.290

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0968; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
J.P. Crawford	3B	75	268	57	0.213	10	25	0.331	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.208	0.312	0.311	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	85	311	89	0.286	9	41	0.377	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.264	0.328	0.434	OK
Dominic Canzone	DH	78	214	57	0.266	14	37	0.335	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.245	0.308	0.465	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	61	229	39	0.170	9	29	0.266	4	3	2	1	2	1	1	0.667	0.203	0.286	0.352	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	86	339	85	0.251	8	36	0.313	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.231	0.285	0.316	OK
Luke Raley	RF	77	226	52	0.230	14	36	0.291	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.222	0.261	0.392	OK
Cole Young	2B	93	334	85	0.254	10	42	0.315	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.240	0.289	0.408	OK
Victor Robles	CF	29	87	20	0.230	0	4	0.280	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.201	0.250	0.264	OK
Colt Emerson	SS	43	138	28	0.203	7	19	0.276	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.194	0.255	0.324	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	4	4	4	6	0.182

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Liam Hicks	C	81	285	83	0.291	13	56	0.364	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.286	0.348	0.401	OK
Otto Lopez	SS	91	365	126	0.345	9	43	0.375	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.321	0.349	0.544	OK
Xavier Edwards	2B	92	337	102	0.303	6	36	0.386	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.283	0.379	0.405	OK
Kyle Stowers	1B	68	254	62	0.244	12	41	0.329	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.269	0.336	0.557	OK
Heriberto Hernández	DH	61	189	45	0.238	12	35	0.306	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.278	0.349	0.609	OK
Griffin Conine	LF	24	68	16	0.235	3	10	0.342	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.144	0.250	0.258	OK
Esteury Ruiz	RF	40	90	22	0.244	4	9	0.310	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.196	0.249	0.388	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	89	314	61	0.194	5	24	0.315	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.215	0.313	0.342	OK
Leo Jiménez	3B	34	99	20	0.202	1	6	0.279	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.136	0.204	0.239	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	30	3	2	2	2	5	0.100

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bryce Miller	Starter	9	51.5	1.75	0.680	10.8	62	6.1	3	2	2	1	5	93	6.1	5	2
Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	35	31.7	3.97	1.293	13.9	49	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	10	1.0	0	0
José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	41	33.8	2.66	1.420	8.5	32	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	42	32.8	2.47	1.494	10.2	37	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	13	0.2	0	0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sandy Alcantara	Starter	19	121.8	4.06	1.273	6.8	92	6.1	3	2	2	2	2	98	6.1	2	2
Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	30	26.6	7.11	1.504	12.9	38	1.0	3	2	2	1	1	17	1.0	1	2
Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	38	32.1	5.33	1.807	10.9	39	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	38	35.8	3.27	1.089	12.1	48	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	15	0.2	2	0

Game Summary

SEA wins 4-2

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres

ARI Recent Form

SD Recent Form

ARI Season Quality

SD Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates

ATL Recent Form

PIT Recent Form

ATL Season Quality

PIT Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox

BOS Recent Form

CHW Recent Form

BOS Season Quality

CHW Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles

CHC Recent Form

BAL Recent Form

CHC Season Quality

BAL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins

CLE Recent Form

MIN Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

MIN Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants

COL Recent Form

SF Recent Form

COL Season Quality

SF Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets

KC Recent Form

NYM Recent Form

KC Season Quality

NYM Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers