MLB Predictions — July 7, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
ARI @ SD	5 - 3	5 - 3	ARI	ARI	ARI wins 5-3	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
ATL @ PIT	3 - 4	3 - 4	PIT	PIT	PIT wins 4-3	58%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BOS @ CHW	3 - 6	3 - 6	CHW	CHW	CHW wins 6-3	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ BAL	5 - 3	5 - 3	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 5-3	63%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ MIN	3 - 6	3 - 6	MIN	MIN	MIN wins 6-3	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
COL @ LAD	0 - 6	0 - 6	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 6-0	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ WAS	3 - 5	3 - 5	WAS	WAS	WAS wins 5-3	63%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
KC @ NYM	5 - 7	5 - 7	NYM	NYM	NYM wins 7-5	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAA @ TEX	1 - 3	1 - 3	TEX	TEX	TEX wins 3-1	63%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ STL	4 - 1	4 - 1	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 4-1	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ STL	6 - 2	6 - 2	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 6-2	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYY @ TB	4 - 3	4 - 3	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 4-3	63%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
OAK @ DET	3 - 4	3 - 4	DET	DET	DET wins 4-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PHI @ CIN	5 - 3	5 - 3	PHI	PHI	PHI wins 5-3	63%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SEA @ MIA	1 - 5	1 - 5	MIA	MIA	MIA wins 5-1	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TOR @ SF	5 - 2	5 - 2	TOR	TOR	TOR wins 5-2	61%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres

ARI 45-45 (4.28 RPG / 4.51 RA)

5 - 3

SD 44-46 (3.87 RPG / 4.42 RA)

WINNER: ARI wins 5-3 TARGET: ARI 5 - 3 SD (ARI) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	5	10
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	3	6

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.900

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed0.5

Run Diff32.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

SD Recent Form

Win%0.100

Avg Runs3.0

Avg Allowed8.0

Run Diff-50.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak

ARI Season Quality

Record44-45

Win%0.494

Run Diff-29

RD/Game-0.326

SD Season Quality

Record44-45

Win%0.494

Run Diff-42

RD/Game-0.472

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1461; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Tommy Troy	OF	23	75	18	0.240	3	5	0.321	5	5	1	1	0	0	2	0.200	0.246	0.320	0.431	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	75	257	61	0.237	4	27	0.354	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.224	0.351	0.337	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	73	297	78	0.263	12	46	0.315	5	5	3	1	4	0	1	0.600	0.279	0.333	0.466	OK
Pavin Smith	DH	17	46	8	0.174	1	5	0.264	5	4	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.239	0.317	0.353	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	51	174	48	0.276	6	25	0.358	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.283	0.360	0.468	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	73	247	59	0.239	8	32	0.315	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.233	0.294	0.347	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	75	278	79	0.284	13	42	0.372	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.277	0.356	0.543	OK
Max Kepler	LF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.248	0.313	0.407
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	LF	30	112	23	0.205	1	13	0.260	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.197	0.245	0.283	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	37	10	5	5	4	10	0.270

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	88	348	98	0.282	5	33	0.344	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.252	0.310	0.387	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	86	336	73	0.217	10	34	0.273	5	5	1	0	0	0	3	0.200	0.233	0.278	0.405	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	85	294	68	0.231	8	33	0.321	5	3	1	1	2	1	2	0.333	0.224	0.306	0.325	OK
Manny Machado	3B	88	321	61	0.190	18	51	0.282	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.206	0.310	0.445	OK
Gavin Sheets	DH	83	263	62	0.236	14	39	0.323	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.245	0.321	0.425	OK
Jake Cronenworth	1B	39	123	22	0.179	2	7	0.284	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.220	0.295	0.326	OK
Luis Campusano	C	21	57	16	0.281	3	10	0.369	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.238	0.322	0.467	OK
Samad Taylor	LF	25	86	28	0.326	1	11	0.408	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	0.667	0.166	0.266	0.242	OK
Sung-Mun Song	2B	28	71	16	0.225	1	9	0.321	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.199	0.290	0.324	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	33	6	3	3	6	13	0.182

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	15	86.7	2.49	1.257	6.7	65	6.2	3	0	0	3	11	117	6.2	11	0
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1	1.0	9.00	2.000	0.0	0	0.1	2	1	1	2	1	21	0.1	1	1
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	2	2.1	0.00	0.476	8.6	2	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	23	1.0	0	1
Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	2	1.2	15.00	3.333	7.5	1	0.0	0	1	1	0	0	20	0.0	0	1

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Germán Márquez	Starter	7	32.2	5.87	1.491	5.6	20	5.0	8	4	4	3	5	99	5.0	5	4
Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	35	34.1	1.06	0.880	17.7	67	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.0	2	0
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	41	39.0	4.15	1.308	12.5	54	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Kyle Hart	Middle Reliever	21	27.4	5.91	1.168	9.2	28	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	6	1.1	2	0
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	34	31.3	2.59	1.406	10.1	35	0.1	1	1	1	1	1	16	0.1	1	1
Yuki Matsui	Middle Reliever	22	26.8	2.35	1.418	11.4	34	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	22	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

ARI wins 5-3

Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates

ATL 52-38 (4.88 RPG / 3.88 RA)

3 - 4

PIT 46-45 (5.22 RPG / 4.86 RA)

WINNER: PIT wins 4-3 TARGET: ATL 3 - 4 PIT (PIT) Confidence: 58.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	7
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	x	4	5

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff3.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs6.2

Avg Allowed5.7

Run Diff5.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak

ATL Season Quality

Record52-38

Win%0.578

Run Diff90

RD/Game1.000

PIT Season Quality

Record46-45

Win%0.505

Run Diff33

RD/Game0.363

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.7458; margin adjustment: -0.3132; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Michael Harris II	CF	83	308	95	0.308	16	53	0.338	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.301	0.331	0.501	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	90	346	94	0.272	14	49	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.245	0.296	0.430	OK
Matt Olson	1B	90	349	95	0.272	24	57	0.343	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.262	0.335	0.570	OK
Drake Baldwin	C	67	260	67	0.258	16	44	0.342	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.242	0.308	0.412	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	86	319	87	0.273	9	49	0.329	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.276	0.338	0.438	OK
Dominic Smith	DH	68	198	54	0.273	6	33	0.303	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.248	0.279	0.364	OK
Austin Riley	3B	90	323	67	0.207	9	41	0.287	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.212	0.277	0.351	OK
Mike Yastrzemski	RF	78	217	49	0.226	5	21	0.310	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.235	0.317	0.384	OK
Jim Jarvis	SS	5	15	3	0.200	0	1	0.250	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.226	0.275	0.315	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	7	3	3	1	5	0.206

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake Mangum	CF	62	209	64	0.306	1	15	0.351	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.289	0.331	0.372	OK
Brandon Lowe	DH	84	331	80	0.242	21	63	0.316	4	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.236	0.310	0.453	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	91	333	94	0.282	13	56	0.393	4	3	1	1	1	1	2	0.333	0.257	0.354	0.460	OK
Esmerlyn Valdez	RF	22	71	22	0.310	6	17	0.359	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.287	0.339	0.553	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	1B	74	285	81	0.284	13	51	0.340	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.254	0.315	0.399	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	84	317	99	0.312	4	40	0.367	3	3	2	1	2	0	0	0.667	0.325	0.378	0.448	OK
Tyler Callihan	2B	24	64	16	0.250	3	15	0.347	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.150	0.247	0.320	OK
Jared Triolo	SS	53	171	41	0.240	1	14	0.312	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.228	0.291	0.349	OK
Henry Davis	C	49	151	24	0.159	7	24	0.247	3	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.195	0.259	0.363	OK
TEAM TOTALS									31	29	5	4	4	1	11	0.172

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Hurston Waldrep	Starter	2	7.1	3.80	1.690	8.9	7	3.1	1	2	2	1	6	66	3.1	6	2
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	29	29.4	2.45	1.156	10.1	33	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	25	2.0	1	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	42	35.2	1.79	0.795	12.5	49	1.0	2	2	2	0	3	19	1.0	3	2
Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	36	28.6	4.09	1.364	10.4	33	1.2	2	0	0	0	1	16	1.2	1	0

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Paul Skenes	Starter	18	95.6	3.67	1.025	11.2	119	5.2	5	3	3	1	5	99	5.2	5	3
Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	38	35.0	4.63	1.371	8.5	33	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.1	0	0
Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	35	28.7	4.70	1.533	16.0	51	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	38	44.0	3.89	1.523	11.5	56	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	4	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

PIT wins 4-3

Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox

BOS 40-48 (4.06 RPG / 4.0 RA)

3 - 6

CHW 47-42 (4.81 RPG / 4.52 RA)

WINNER: CHW wins 6-3 TARGET: BOS 3 - 6 CHW (CHW) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	8
CHW	2	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	x	6	9

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff14.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.900

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed1.0

Run Diff26.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

BOS Season Quality

Record40-48

Win%0.455

Run Diff5

RD/Game0.057

CHW Season Quality

Record47-42

Win%0.528

Run Diff26

RD/Game0.292

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3456; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Anthony Seigler	2B	16	52	16	0.308	1	3	0.390	5	4	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.169	0.250	0.329	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	82	315	89	0.283	7	36	0.331	5	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.257	0.298	0.391	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	86	330	87	0.264	10	42	0.332	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.230	0.308	0.378	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	84	306	87	0.284	20	59	0.376	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.270	0.345	0.533	OK
Romy Gonzalez	DH	5	20	6	0.300	1	4	0.300	4	3	1	1	2	1	2	0.333	0.251	0.259	0.457	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	79	264	59	0.223	8	37	0.284	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.218	0.279	0.399	OK
Jarren Duran	LF	81	319	63	0.197	13	43	0.259	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.196	0.259	0.351	OK
Andruw Monasterio	SS	49	141	31	0.220	3	12	0.257	4	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.130	0.169	0.248	OK
Connor Wong	C	35	101	29	0.287	1	14	0.371	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.183	0.263	0.308	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	8	3	3	1	11	0.235

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Tristan Peters	CF	68	194	56	0.289	3	24	0.344	5	4	2	1	0	0	2	0.500	0.163	0.223	0.321	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	74	271	59	0.218	20	45	0.312	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.204	0.276	0.439	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	74	281	76	0.270	6	25	0.334	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.236	0.292	0.346	OK
Jacob Gonzalez	SS	17	48	8	0.167	1	5	0.273	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.195	0.263	0.277	OK
Kyle Teel	C	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.242	0.307	0.400
Miguel Vargas	3B	75	275	65	0.236	16	44	0.350	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.215	0.308	0.372	OK
Braden Montgomery	OF	12	42	11	0.262	1	5	0.311	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.234	0.288	0.421	OK
Sam Antonacci	SS	58	199	58	0.291	4	22	0.391	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.274	0.334	0.459	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	69	214	50	0.234	9	37	0.292	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.210	0.269	0.443	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	33	9	6	6	4	7	0.273

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Payton Tolle	Starter	13	73.4	3.43	1.131	9.1	74	5.2	7	3	3	2	5	102	5.2	5	3
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	27	26.2	1.37	1.145	12.0	35	1.0	1	2	2	1	1	20	1.0	1	2
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	30	28.3	2.54	1.025	10.8	34	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	23	16.5	7.64	2.000	14.2	26	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	14	0.0	0	0
Tyron Guerrero	Middle Reliever	17	12.7	3.54	1.260	15.6	22	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	16	0.1	1	1

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Davis Martin	Starter	14	79.8	3.38	1.216	9.4	83	6.0	6	2	2	1	5	102	6.0	5	2
Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	2	1.1	16.36	3.636	0.0	0	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	1.48	1.311	11.8	8	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	18	1.0	3	0
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	24	20.9	1.72	1.483	9.9	23	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

CHW wins 6-3

Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles

CHC 50-40 (5.06 RPG / 4.54 RA)

5 - 3

BAL 42-49 (4.57 RPG / 4.88 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 5-3 TARGET: CHC 5 - 3 BAL (CHC) Confidence: 63.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5	6
BAL	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	3	6

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs5.4

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff10.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-4.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

CHC Season Quality

Record50-40

Win%0.556

Run Diff46

RD/Game0.511

BAL Season Quality

Record42-49

Win%0.462

Run Diff-28

RD/Game-0.308

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9598; margin adjustment: -0.4031; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	89	332	98	0.295	19	49	0.387	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.296	0.377	0.539	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	87	341	83	0.243	7	32	0.343	5	3	2	1	0	0	1	0.667	0.237	0.332	0.372	OK
Michael Busch	1B	88	321	76	0.237	11	47	0.371	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.238	0.348	0.428	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	74	277	73	0.264	13	42	0.347	4	4	1	1	3	0	2	0.250	0.256	0.333	0.441	OK
Ian Happ	LF	84	316	70	0.222	17	41	0.331	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.216	0.310	0.396	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	87	350	85	0.243	4	38	0.313	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.243	0.307	0.340	OK
Michael Conforto	DH	55	128	32	0.250	7	20	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.183	0.274	0.388	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	84	286	60	0.210	16	57	0.299	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.240	0.314	0.548	OK
Miguel Amaya	C	40	121	27	0.223	3	13	0.329	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.209	0.285	0.329	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	33	6	5	5	4	6	0.182

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Taylor Ward	LF	88	334	85	0.254	5	22	0.378	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.237	0.342	0.337	OK
Adley Rutschman	C	59	222	57	0.257	8	45	0.320	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.233	0.291	0.399	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	88	364	81	0.223	15	39	0.295	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.210	0.277	0.343	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	89	333	85	0.255	19	60	0.345	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.251	0.345	0.417	OK
Coby Mayo	3B	65	212	41	0.193	10	32	0.262	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.204	0.270	0.356	OK
Samuel Basallo	DH	74	249	64	0.257	14	42	0.318	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.252	0.319	0.492	OK
Blaze Alexander	RF	65	198	62	0.313	3	28	0.366	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.278	0.327	0.409	OK
Dylan Beavers	CF	36	115	26	0.226	2	12	0.302	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.213	0.290	0.347	OK
Jackson Holliday	2B	37	106	20	0.189	5	14	0.285	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.182	0.287	0.321	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	6	3	3	3	8	0.182

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Matthew Boyd	Starter	7	31.8	5.38	1.478	10.5	37	5.0	3	2	2	2	7	83	5.0	7	2
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	38	34.6	3.64	1.474	12.0	46	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	27	20.0	4.50	1.400	13.5	30	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	21	24.7	2.91	1.093	4.4	12	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Ryan Rolison	Middle Reliever	29	27.5	2.95	1.418	10.8	33	1.0	3	1	1	1	0	23	1.0	0	1

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shane Baz	Starter	17	98.2	4.31	1.405	8.0	87	6.0	4	4	4	2	5	102	6.0	5	4
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	38	23.4	2.69	1.154	10.4	27	0.2	1	1	1	2	0	19	0.2	0	1
Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever	32	38.4	3.28	1.146	10.1	43	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.1	1	0
Grant Wolfram	Middle Reliever	31	18.3	4.92	1.639	14.3	29	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	41	33.8	2.66	0.947	10.9	41	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	13	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

CHC wins 5-3

Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins

CLE 47-44 (3.98 RPG / 4.08 RA)

3 - 6

MIN 44-47 (4.92 RPG / 5.11 RA)

WINNER: MIN wins 6-3 TARGET: CLE 3 - 6 MIN (MIN) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	8
MIN	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	0	x	6	7

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-5.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.3

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff15.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

CLE Season Quality

Record47-44

Win%0.516

Run Diff-9

RD/Game-0.099

MIN Season Quality

Record44-47

Win%0.484

Run Diff-17

RD/Game-0.187

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1374; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Travis Bazzana	2B	59	221	55	0.249	7	27	0.339	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.228	0.307	0.360	OK
Kahlil Watson	CF	17	57	14	0.246	1	9	0.271	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.240	0.268	0.362	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	72	273	75	0.275	8	41	0.336	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.272	0.326	0.428	OK
Kyle Manzardo	1B	80	249	56	0.225	10	29	0.316	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.216	0.301	0.347	OK
Rhys Hoskins	DH	69	203	36	0.177	7	28	0.312	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.184	0.326	0.324	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	87	293	81	0.276	6	37	0.345	4	4	1	1	2	0	3	0.250	0.277	0.335	0.419	OK
Daniel Schneemann	3B	72	226	49	0.217	6	28	0.286	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.228	0.293	0.336	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	28	83	18	0.217	1	7	0.258	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.207	0.254	0.297	OK
Steven Kwan	LF	80	279	62	0.222	1	14	0.324	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.247	0.345	0.353	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	8	3	3	3	10	0.229

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Austin Martin	LF	69	223	55	0.247	2	18	0.342	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.264	0.350	0.363	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	84	320	80	0.250	14	47	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.252	0.305	0.395	OK
Josh Bell	DH	88	320	79	0.247	13	60	0.306	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.249	0.307	0.505	OK
Royce Lewis	1B	57	207	45	0.217	8	25	0.293	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.237	0.307	0.386	OK
Victor Caratini	C	65	210	50	0.238	7	34	0.331	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.241	0.320	0.400	OK
Kody Clemens	2B	76	278	68	0.245	16	43	0.306	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.168	0.223	0.392	OK
Ryan Kreidler	SS	42	117	30	0.256	5	23	0.315	3	3	2	1	5	0	1	0.667	0.221	0.277	0.369	OK
Luke Keaschall	RF	84	290	73	0.252	4	26	0.337	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.256	0.328	0.441	OK
Kyler Fedko	CF	5	14	0	0.000	0	0	0.125	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.147	0.245	0.224
TEAM TOTALS									33	31	7	6	6	2	7	0.226

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Joey Cantillo	Starter	18	88.9	3.95	1.395	9.0	89	5.1	7	6	6	2	5	97	5.1	5	6
Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	38	38.0	3.08	1.211	13.5	57	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	31	22.8	3.16	1.491	9.9	25	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Taj Bradley	Starter	16	86.8	3.94	1.313	10.6	102	5.2	6	1	1	2	4	97	5.2	4	1
Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	27	20.5	2.20	1.122	10.1	23	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	32	34.7	4.41	1.585	11.2	43	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Travis Adams	Middle Reliever	16	20.8	7.36	1.779	13.0	30	1.1	2	2	2	1	2	26	1.1	2	2
Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	37	24.4	6.64	2.008	10.0	27	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

MIN wins 6-3

Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers

COL 37-55 (4.89 RPG / 5.76 RA)

0 - 6

LAD 60-32 (5.34 RPG / 3.55 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 6-0 TARGET: COL 0 - 6 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
LAD	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	x	6	8

COL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs6.9

Avg Allowed5.8

Run Diff11.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs6.6

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff26.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

COL Season Quality

Record37-54

Win%0.407

Run Diff-79

RD/Game-0.868

LAD Season Quality

Record59-32

Win%0.648

Run Diff163

RD/Game1.791

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 3.022; margin adjustment: 1.2692; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Willi Castro	2B	76	273	73	0.267	6	35	0.339	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.226	0.285	0.331	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	84	250	67	0.268	7	30	0.369	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.268	0.367	0.487	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	86	314	94	0.299	12	46	0.376	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.281	0.345	0.435	OK
Cole Carrigg	CF	24	81	25	0.309	4	21	0.385	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.282	0.360	0.550	OK
Tyler Freeman	RF	58	201	55	0.274	3	23	0.354	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.153	0.198	0.219	OK
Jake McCarthy	LF	71	259	79	0.305	9	48	0.341	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.271	0.304	0.526	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	83	292	62	0.212	8	32	0.256	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.220	0.264	0.416	OK
Braxton Fulford	C	27	49	9	0.184	1	7	0.276	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.095	0.181	0.195	OK
Mickey Moniak	DH	55	188	52	0.277	15	37	0.325	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.249	0.290	0.539	OK
TEAM TOTALS									30	29	2	0	0	1	9	0.069

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	83	316	93	0.294	19	55	0.409	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.285	0.393	0.504	OK
Andy Pages	CF	91	353	93	0.263	16	63	0.327	4	2	1	0	0	1	1	0.500	0.246	0.321	0.412	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	89	336	98	0.292	15	49	0.380	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.287	0.372	0.488	OK
Max Muncy	3B	84	280	75	0.268	17	40	0.361	4	3	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.284	0.367	0.477	OK
Tommy Edman	LF	14	49	17	0.347	1	9	0.429	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.282	0.359	0.473	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	84	310	78	0.252	7	45	0.344	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.303	0.386	0.439	OK
Dalton Rushing	C	55	171	46	0.269	10	30	0.344	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.313	0.372	0.552	OK
Alex Freeland	2B	65	186	42	0.226	3	18	0.305	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.226	0.301	0.318	OK
Miguel Rojas	SS	55	131	38	0.290	3	16	0.319	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.300	0.338	0.490	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	31	8	6	6	4	6	0.258

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael Lorenzen	Starter	19	82.5	7.20	1.891	7.3	67	4.2	6	4	4	3	5	101	4.2	5	4
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	27	41.1	3.28	1.314	8.3	38	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	22	1.1	1	0
Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	22	20.9	3.88	1.340	10.3	24	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	24	24.1	5.60	1.867	7.1	19	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	19	1.0	0	2

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Justin Wrobleski	Starter	15	92.4	2.82	1.017	6.2	64	6.2	1	0	0	0	7	91	6.2	7	0
Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	39	34.1	2.90	0.880	12.4	47	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	11	1.0	1	0
Edgardo Henriquez	Middle Reliever	34	34.1	2.64	0.968	9.2	35	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	40	23.0	3.13	1.435	16.0	41	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	15	0.1	1	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-0

Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals

HOU 45-48 (4.56 RPG / 5.04 RA)

3 - 5

WAS 47-45 (5.4 RPG / 5.29 RA)

WINNER: WAS wins 5-3 TARGET: HOU 3 - 5 WAS (WAS) Confidence: 63.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	3
WAS	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	x	5	9

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.1

Avg Allowed5.8

Run Diff-7.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.7

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff6.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak

HOU Season Quality

Record45-48

Win%0.484

Run Diff-45

RD/Game-0.484

WAS Season Quality

Record47-45

Win%0.511

Run Diff10

RD/Game0.109

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6331; margin adjustment: 0.2659; applied: True

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jose Altuve	2B	69	264	62	0.235	9	25	0.312	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.232	0.308	0.398	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	90	326	105	0.322	29	67	0.430	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.294	0.388	0.590	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	85	307	75	0.244	12	47	0.342	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.248	0.316	0.414	OK
Christian Walker	1B	90	337	82	0.243	20	58	0.316	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.244	0.304	0.455	OK
Cam Smith	RF	89	306	69	0.225	11	32	0.298	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.241	0.301	0.404	OK
Zach Dezenzo	LF	22	49	10	0.204	1	3	0.264	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.216	0.272	0.366	OK
Brice Matthews	CF	68	194	37	0.191	7	20	0.240	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.191	0.243	0.346	OK
Nick Allen	SS	33	81	19	0.235	1	6	0.284	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.132	0.184	0.205	OK
Christian Vázquez	C	55	165	36	0.218	4	19	0.271	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.208	0.258	0.298	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	30	3	3	3	3	5	0.100

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	RF	92	351	94	0.268	24	60	0.398	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.279	0.414	0.614	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	85	285	80	0.281	19	65	0.311	4	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.196	0.233	0.452	OK
Curtis Mead	3B	75	242	58	0.240	15	42	0.333	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.184	0.271	0.364	OK
CJ Abrams	DH	88	328	90	0.274	19	64	0.351	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.254	0.309	0.471	OK
Keibert Ruiz	C	57	186	53	0.285	6	33	0.315	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.288	0.322	0.457	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	90	352	89	0.253	10	43	0.305	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.257	0.297	0.460	OK
Nasim Nuñez	SS	79	255	62	0.243	1	28	0.329	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.255	0.344	0.362	OK
Jorbit Vivas	2B	63	166	41	0.247	3	16	0.321	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.226	0.295	0.343	OK
Jacob Young	CF	76	262	59	0.225	8	31	0.272	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.211	0.256	0.344	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	9	5	5	3	6	0.281

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tatsuya Imai	Starter	12	46.0	6.46	1.543	11.7	60	4.0	9	5	5	3	4	89	4.0	4	5
Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	15	15.0	0.60	0.600	14.4	24	2.1	0	0	0	0	2	24	2.1	2	0
Bryan King	Middle Reliever	37	34.1	2.38	1.349	7.9	30	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andrew Alvarez	Starter	11	39.7	3.17	1.436	10.9	48	5.1	3	3	3	2	5	84	5.1	5	3
Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	27	24.2	3.35	1.364	11.2	30	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	15	1.1	0	0
PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	34	29.4	3.37	1.565	6.7	22	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	28	24.0	3.75	1.250	8.2	22	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

WAS wins 5-3

Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets

KC 37-54 (4.22 RPG / 5.0 RA)

5 - 7

NYM 38-53 (4.05 RPG / 4.71 RA)

WINNER: NYM wins 7-5 TARGET: KC 5 - 7 NYM (NYM) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5	7
NYM	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	7	8

KC Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.3

Avg Allowed6.3

Run Diff-30.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff-10.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

KC Season Quality

Record37-54

Win%0.407

Run Diff-71

RD/Game-0.780

NYM Season Quality

Record38-53

Win%0.418

Run Diff-60

RD/Game-0.659

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1374; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	C	81	286	71	0.248	13	47	0.310	5	5	1	1	0	0	2	0.200	0.235	0.289	0.440	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	84	329	96	0.292	12	35	0.360	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.263	0.329	0.434	OK
Lane Thomas	CF	71	207	46	0.222	6	24	0.325	5	3	1	1	2	2	0	0.333	0.236	0.325	0.404	OK
Salvador Perez	DH	82	322	68	0.211	11	33	0.252	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.232	0.255	0.382	OK
Jac Caglianone	1B	83	290	74	0.255	14	33	0.320	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.150	0.206	0.262	OK
Nick Loftin	3B	52	157	37	0.236	3	27	0.324	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.227	0.310	0.360	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	77	244	58	0.238	4	25	0.343	4	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.258	0.337	0.427	OK
Michael Massey	2B	69	210	54	0.257	7	29	0.290	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.227	0.271	0.358	OK
Tyler Tolbert	RF	19	42	14	0.333	1	3	0.383	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.166	0.232	0.258	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	34	7	5	5	5	11	0.206

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
A.J. Ewing	CF	51	170	44	0.259	5	20	0.342	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.232	0.307	0.392	OK
Juan Soto	LF	71	253	77	0.304	19	46	0.416	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.282	0.402	0.528	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	90	363	94	0.259	10	50	0.303	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.270	0.315	0.378	OK
Francisco Lindor	SS	34	134	29	0.216	4	10	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.224	0.293	0.384	OK
Carson Benge	RF	86	332	86	0.259	11	35	0.317	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.252	0.298	0.431	OK
Jorge Polanco	DH	14	56	10	0.179	1	2	0.246	4	4	1	1	4	0	2	0.250	0.201	0.259	0.336	OK
Jared Young	1B	43	125	28	0.224	6	15	0.292	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.131	0.183	0.234	OK
Brett Baty	2B	81	263	58	0.221	3	27	0.295	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.225	0.294	0.329	OK
Luis Torrens	C	52	151	33	0.219	2	18	0.276	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.143	0.197	0.260	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	8	7	7	3	6	0.250

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Seth Lugo	Starter	17	94.7	4.28	1.404	7.2	76	5.1	4	4	4	2	5	91	5.1	5	4
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	36	34.3	5.25	1.574	9.7	37	0.0	1	1	1	0	0	20	0.0	0	1
Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	34	31.8	4.81	1.667	7.1	25	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	37	31.8	2.83	1.101	9.1	32	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	38	30.1	3.59	1.429	8.1	27	0.2	2	2	2	0	0	16	0.2	0	2

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cionel Pérez	Starter	13	16.7	5.39	1.317	11.3	21	5.0	3	4	4	3	6	96	5.0	6	4
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	32	27.1	4.65	1.661	14.3	43	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	23	1.0	2	1
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	36	35.9	2.01	0.891	10.5	42	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	36	27.2	2.65	1.434	11.9	36	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	36	35.7	3.53	1.261	9.8	39	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

NYM wins 7-5

Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers

LAA 36-55 (4.38 RPG / 5.02 RA)

1 - 3

TEX 45-45 (4.08 RPG / 4.17 RA)

WINNER: TEX wins 3-1 TARGET: LAA 1 - 3 TEX (TEX) Confidence: 63.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAA	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	3
TEX	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	x	3	7

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs2.9

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff-24.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff4.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

LAA Season Quality

Record36-55

Win%0.396

Run Diff-58

RD/Game-0.637

TEX Season Quality

Record45-45

Win%0.500

Run Diff-8

RD/Game-0.089

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7051; margin adjustment: 0.2961; applied: True

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	88	347	80	0.231	19	45	0.323	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.228	0.297	0.424	OK
Nolan Schanuel	1B	71	268	69	0.257	6	31	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.225	0.281	0.334	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	22	87	22	0.253	3	13	0.309	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.227	0.281	0.335	OK
Jorge Soler	DH	69	251	54	0.215	11	38	0.302	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.200	0.284	0.340	OK
Josh Lowe	CF	51	156	33	0.212	7	19	0.248	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.225	0.259	0.386	OK
Jo Adell	RF	90	351	86	0.245	11	47	0.290	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.222	0.248	0.349	OK
Oswald Peraza	2B	74	245	60	0.245	7	22	0.286	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.197	0.220	0.318	OK
Wade Meckler	LF	36	113	32	0.283	2	15	0.357	3	2	1	0	0	1	1	0.500	0.243	0.313	0.355	OK
Logan O'Hoppe	C	59	193	44	0.228	4	23	0.289	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.194	0.240	0.285	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	30	3	1	1	4	6	0.100

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Joc Pederson	DH	81	236	57	0.242	14	31	0.336	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.173	0.263	0.368	OK
Josh Smith	2B	37	113	26	0.230	1	8	0.318	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.264	0.333	0.411	OK
Jake Burger	1B	86	317	78	0.246	15	53	0.309	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.224	0.284	0.394	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	84	325	84	0.258	8	30	0.329	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.242	0.308	0.400	OK
Ezequiel Duran	3B	79	275	75	0.273	7	44	0.323	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.185	0.236	0.308	OK
Evan Carter	CF	71	209	39	0.187	7	22	0.293	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.158	0.251	0.281	OK
Alejandro Osuna	LF	55	156	39	0.250	0	15	0.335	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.248	0.299	0.309	OK
Elias Díaz	C	17	55	16	0.291	2	11	0.298	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.226	0.250	0.438	OK
Nicky Lopez	SS	33	99	33	0.333	1	9	0.365	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.191	0.214	0.251	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	31	7	3	3	1	6	0.226

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
José Soriano	Starter	18	97.9	3.49	1.348	10.2	111	5.1	6	3	3	1	5	94	5.1	5	3
Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	32	34.7	3.63	1.326	10.1	39	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	2.0	1	0
Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	35	36.7	4.41	1.417	13.7	56	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	17	0.2	0	0

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jacob deGrom	Starter	17	94.5	3.52	1.005	11.0	115	6.0	2	1	1	2	6	91	6.0	6	1
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	32	39.9	1.13	0.551	9.7	43	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	22	1.1	0	0
Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	24	28.3	3.18	1.201	10.8	34	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	38	32.1	2.80	1.495	9.0	32	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	15	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

TEX wins 3-1

Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals

MIL 57-33 (5.08 RPG / 3.64 RA)

4 - 1

STL 47-42 (4.6 RPG / 4.47 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 4-1 TARGET: MIL 4 - 1 STL (MIL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	4	10
STL	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff-2.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

STL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff12.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIL Season Quality

Record56-33

Win%0.629

Run Diff128

RD/Game1.438

STL Season Quality

Record47-41

Win%0.534

Run Diff12

RD/Game0.136

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.4445; margin adjustment: -0.6067; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Christian Yelich	DH	55	213	50	0.235	6	28	0.322	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.202	0.290	0.345	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	55	233	68	0.292	13	35	0.349	5	5	3	1	2	0	0	0.600	0.258	0.317	0.470	OK
Brice Turang	2B	84	328	89	0.271	12	53	0.364	5	5	1	0	0	0	3	0.200	0.281	0.360	0.451	OK
William Contreras	C	83	326	95	0.291	9	51	0.353	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.254	0.308	0.363	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	78	272	73	0.268	16	54	0.361	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.253	0.329	0.460	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	74	241	64	0.266	7	36	0.355	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.280	0.365	0.530	OK
Sal Frelick	RF	79	253	61	0.241	3	29	0.306	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.230	0.287	0.336	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	18	54	11	0.204	0	2	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.216	0.314	0.289	OK
Joey Ortiz	3B	65	187	39	0.209	2	20	0.278	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.223	0.285	0.306	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	37	10	4	4	2	10	0.270

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	SS	82	326	87	0.267	13	35	0.361	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.255	0.321	0.387	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	87	318	79	0.248	10	38	0.384	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.228	0.313	0.334	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	86	331	92	0.278	14	62	0.341	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.254	0.304	0.423	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	85	326	95	0.291	19	64	0.355	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.262	0.344	0.504	OK
Lars Nootbaar	LF	26	89	24	0.270	2	8	0.353	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.229	0.308	0.371	OK
Bryan Torres	2B	18	48	10	0.208	3	6	0.269	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.212	0.267	0.443	OK
Nathan Church	CF	65	220	56	0.255	8	27	0.298	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.223	0.268	0.407	OK
José Fermín	3B	52	139	38	0.273	3	17	0.320	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.263	0.313	0.404	OK
Jimmy Crooks	C	20	55	9	0.164	1	7	0.246	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.191	0.251	0.292	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	31	4	1	1	1	10	0.129

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jacob Misiorowski	Starter	17	103.3	1.48	0.784	13.6	156	6.1	3	1	1	1	9	93	6.1	9	1
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	36	36.0	2.00	0.917	11.5	46	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	36	32.4	3.06	1.111	9.4	34	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	42	47.3	3.62	1.543	13.3	70	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	16	0.2	0	0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Matt Svanson	Starter	34	32.3	7.80	1.950	10.6	38	4.0	8	4	4	1	7	87	4.0	7	4
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	36	34.7	3.89	1.210	9.1	35	1.1	2	0	0	0	0	23	1.1	0	0
JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	40	31.3	4.60	1.629	11.2	39	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	38	28.6	5.66	1.783	12.3	39	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	21	1.2	2	0
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	39	33.2	3.80	1.295	8.7	32	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

MIL wins 4-1

Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals

MIL 57-33 (5.08 RPG / 3.64 RA)

6 - 2

STL 47-42 (4.6 RPG / 4.47 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 6-2 TARGET: MIL 6 - 2 STL (MIL) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	1	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	6	9
STL	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	5

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff-2.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

STL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff12.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIL Season Quality

Record56-33

Win%0.629

Run Diff128

RD/Game1.438

STL Season Quality

Record47-41

Win%0.534

Run Diff12

RD/Game0.136

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.4445; margin adjustment: -0.6067; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Christian Yelich	DH	55	213	50	0.235	6	28	0.322	5	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.202	0.290	0.345	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	55	233	68	0.292	13	35	0.349	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.258	0.317	0.471	OK
Brice Turang	2B	84	328	89	0.271	12	53	0.364	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.281	0.361	0.452	OK
William Contreras	C	83	326	95	0.291	9	51	0.353	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.254	0.309	0.363	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	78	272	73	0.268	16	54	0.361	5	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.253	0.329	0.461	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	74	241	64	0.266	7	36	0.355	5	3	2	1	2	2	0	0.667	0.281	0.365	0.531	OK
Sal Frelick	RF	79	253	61	0.241	3	29	0.306	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.231	0.287	0.337	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	18	54	11	0.204	0	2	0.312	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.216	0.314	0.290	OK
Joey Ortiz	3B	65	187	39	0.209	2	20	0.278	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.224	0.285	0.306	OK
TEAM TOTALS									43	36	9	6	6	5	4	0.250

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	SS	82	326	87	0.267	13	35	0.361	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.255	0.322	0.387	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	87	318	79	0.248	10	38	0.384	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.229	0.313	0.335	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	86	331	92	0.278	14	62	0.341	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.254	0.304	0.423	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	85	326	95	0.291	19	64	0.355	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.263	0.345	0.505	OK
Lars Nootbaar	LF	26	89	24	0.270	2	8	0.353	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.229	0.309	0.372	OK
Bryan Torres	2B	18	48	10	0.208	3	6	0.269	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.212	0.268	0.444	OK
Nathan Church	CF	65	220	56	0.255	8	27	0.298	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.223	0.268	0.408	OK
José Fermín	3B	52	139	38	0.273	3	17	0.320	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.264	0.313	0.405	OK
Jimmy Crooks	C	20	55	9	0.164	1	7	0.246	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.191	0.251	0.293	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	5	2	2	2	6	0.156

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Robert Gasser	Starter	7	34.5	4.70	1.333	9.4	36	5.1	4	2	2	1	4	90	5.1	4	2
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	36	36.0	2.00	0.917	11.5	46	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	36	32.4	3.06	1.111	9.4	34	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	42	47.3	3.62	1.543	13.3	70	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	23	1.2	1	0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael McGreevy	Starter	17	94.4	3.15	1.123	5.7	60	5.2	6	3	3	4	4	105	5.2	4	3
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	36	34.7	3.89	1.210	9.1	35	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	16	1.0	0	2
JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	40	31.3	4.60	1.629	11.2	39	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	38	28.6	5.66	1.783	12.3	39	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	39	33.2	3.80	1.295	8.7	32	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	18	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

MIL wins 6-2

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

NYY 50-40 (4.8 RPG / 3.89 RA)

4 - 3

TB 52-36 (4.51 RPG / 4.16 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 4-3 TARGET: NYY 4 - 3 TB (NYY) Confidence: 63.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	4	6
TB	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	9

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs2.6

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff-27.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak

TB Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff18.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

NYY Season Quality

Record50-40

Win%0.556

Run Diff82

RD/Game0.911

TB Season Quality

Record52-36

Win%0.591

Run Diff31

RD/Game0.352

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5058; margin adjustment: -0.2124; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trent Grisham	CF	68	237	55	0.232	9	37	0.335	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.241	0.332	0.431	OK
Paul Goldschmidt	1B	61	222	59	0.266	14	41	0.320	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.201	0.250	0.380	OK
Ben Rice	DH	84	315	84	0.267	25	56	0.361	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.230	0.325	0.497	OK
Amed Rosario	3B	48	142	35	0.246	9	26	0.288	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.231	0.279	0.483	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	88	323	80	0.248	11	50	0.344	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.201	0.297	0.339	OK
José Caballero	SS	76	253	63	0.249	10	33	0.304	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.233	0.274	0.429	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	85	300	67	0.223	12	33	0.301	4	4	1	1	1	0	3	0.250	0.216	0.293	0.346	OK
Max Schuemann	RF	19	42	9	0.214	2	6	0.365	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.125	0.252	0.312	OK
Ali Sánchez	C	13	27	6	0.222	0	3	0.276	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.194	0.225	0.332	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	6	4	4	3	12	0.182

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	84	319	101	0.317	12	53	0.399	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.236	0.311	0.356	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	87	318	90	0.283	13	58	0.384	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.244	0.333	0.375	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	88	334	95	0.284	26	56	0.374	5	4	2	0	0	1	0	0.500	0.248	0.337	0.518	OK
Cedric Mullins	CF	76	262	55	0.210	10	29	0.289	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.226	0.291	0.388	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	79	306	85	0.278	0	16	0.314	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.189	0.235	0.257	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	25	76	13	0.171	3	9	0.273	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.193	0.292	0.307	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	66	208	47	0.226	0	20	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.234	0.328	0.340	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	62	185	44	0.238	2	25	0.333	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.159	0.247	0.255	OK
Hunter Feduccia	C	45	110	25	0.227	1	8	0.295	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.140	0.208	0.234	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	36	9	3	3	3	8	0.250

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Will Warren	Starter	17	85.6	3.89	1.390	9.6	91	5.0	6	2	2	2	4	89	5.0	4	2
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	41	27.4	3.28	1.752	15.4	47	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	44	34.7	1.82	1.412	12.2	47	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Camilo Doval	Middle Reliever	39	29.3	5.53	1.604	10.8	35	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Tim Hill	Middle Reliever	38	26.5	4.08	1.170	5.4	16	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	16	1.0	1	0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ian Seymour	Starter	30	51.1	3.52	1.096	10.6	60	6.0	1	2	2	1	8	95	6.0	8	2
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	36	33.4	1.89	0.838	10.0	37	1.0	4	2	2	2	1	37	1.0	1	2
Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	38	34.7	2.85	1.037	7.8	30	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	32	1.1	1	0
Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	28	22.1	4.48	1.448	13.0	32	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	13	0.2	2	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-3

Oakland Athletics @ Detroit Tigers

OAK 41-49 (4.62 RPG / 5.42 RA)

3 - 4

DET 40-50 (4.21 RPG / 4.09 RA)

WINNER: DET wins 4-3 TARGET: OAK 3 - 4 DET (DET) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	3	9
DET	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	x	4	8

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed6.3

Run Diff-13.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

DET Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.3

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff19.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak

OAK Season Quality

Record41-49

Win%0.456

Run Diff-72

RD/Game-0.800

DET Season Quality

Record40-50

Win%0.444

Run Diff11

RD/Game0.122

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9056; margin adjustment: 0.3803; applied: True

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zack Gelof	LF	60	216	61	0.282	11	29	0.338	5	5	2	1	1	0	2	0.400	0.172	0.223	0.317	OK
Nick Kurtz	1B	89	324	89	0.275	20	66	0.415	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.238	0.366	0.430	OK
Shea Langeliers	C	80	330	87	0.264	20	44	0.328	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.231	0.288	0.413	OK
Jonah Heim	DH	34	106	26	0.245	8	21	0.296	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.242	0.300	0.476	OK
Jacob Wilson	SS	50	202	56	0.277	4	26	0.310	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.239	0.281	0.371	OK
Colby Thomas	RF	37	88	20	0.227	4	11	0.261	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.228	0.259	0.419	OK
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer	2B	6	22	9	0.409	0	1	0.435	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.256	0.265	0.406	OK
Max Muncy	3B	45	151	35	0.232	5	20	0.304	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.217	0.289	0.370	OK
Henry Bolte	CF	45	158	46	0.291	2	14	0.363	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.235	0.292	0.312	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	36	9	3	3	2	11	0.250

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kevin McGonigle	SS	86	322	92	0.286	7	31	0.398	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.271	0.375	0.417	OK
Colt Keith	3B	80	238	59	0.248	6	18	0.295	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.253	0.293	0.427	OK
Riley Greene	LF	88	321	95	0.296	13	44	0.384	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.292	0.372	0.573	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	82	309	83	0.269	19	60	0.328	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.265	0.308	0.469	OK
Kerry Carpenter	DH	67	192	45	0.234	13	36	0.306	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.252	0.309	0.475	OK
Zach McKinstry	2B	62	196	39	0.199	3	16	0.274	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.226	0.291	0.337	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	88	299	63	0.211	14	37	0.312	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.224	0.316	0.418	OK
James Outman	CF	16	49	8	0.163	3	8	0.226	3	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.096	0.156	0.205	OK
Matt Vierling	RF	67	214	41	0.192	5	27	0.247	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.131	0.186	0.246	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	8	4	4	2	8	0.250

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
J.T. Ginn	Starter	19	92.1	3.13	1.260	8.0	82	5.2	1	2	2	2	6	93	5.2	6	2
Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	23	20.6	6.55	1.408	12.7	29	1.1	3	1	1	0	1	20	1.1	1	1
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	43	31.6	4.27	1.962	14.8	52	1.0	4	1	1	0	1	25	1.0	1	1

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tarik Skubal	Starter	11	63.8	3.24	0.940	10.6	75	6.0	5	2	2	1	7	107	6.0	7	2
Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	24	19.8	4.55	1.212	10.5	23	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	24	1.0	1	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	37	35.9	2.01	1.588	7.8	31	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	38	33.0	4.09	1.667	9.0	33	1.0	3	1	1	0	2	22	1.0	2	1

Game Summary

DET wins 4-3

Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds

PHI 50-41 (4.43 RPG / 4.51 RA)

5 - 3

CIN 41-48 (4.18 RPG / 4.85 RA)

WINNER: PHI wins 5-3 TARGET: PHI 5 - 3 CIN (PHI) Confidence: 63.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	5	6
CIN	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	9

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff-8.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff-10.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

PHI Season Quality

Record50-41

Win%0.549

Run Diff-7

RD/Game-0.077

CIN Season Quality

Record41-48

Win%0.461

Run Diff-60

RD/Game-0.674

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.7304; margin adjustment: -0.3068; applied: True

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trea Turner	SS	86	364	89	0.245	10	31	0.287	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.256	0.291	0.410	OK
Kyle Schwarber	DH	85	324	81	0.250	29	54	0.363	4	2	1	1	2	1	1	0.500	0.234	0.348	0.429	OK
Bryce Harper	1B	89	315	85	0.270	20	57	0.376	4	4	2	1	0	0	2	0.500	0.252	0.370	0.458	OK
Alec Bohm	3B	85	317	71	0.224	11	46	0.282	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.233	0.287	0.425	OK
Edmundo Sosa	LF	48	139	30	0.216	5	24	0.250	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.137	0.161	0.271	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	61	211	43	0.204	6	27	0.283	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.216	0.277	0.361	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	84	295	74	0.251	7	39	0.311	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.270	0.325	0.402	OK
Derek Hill	RF	13	37	11	0.297	2	5	0.297	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.151	0.178	0.267	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	82	252	62	0.246	2	18	0.296	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.241	0.280	0.335	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	5	5	3	12	0.182

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Elly De La Cruz	SS	69	275	76	0.276	13	41	0.347	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.249	0.319	0.407	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	88	335	86	0.257	17	61	0.342	5	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.239	0.318	0.453	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	60	216	51	0.236	13	37	0.343	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.218	0.318	0.371	OK
Eugenio Suárez	3B	60	216	45	0.208	8	31	0.280	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.219	0.291	0.356	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	DH	63	186	46	0.247	8	24	0.333	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.141	0.232	0.269	OK
Spencer Steer	RF	83	292	70	0.240	14	36	0.317	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.235	0.312	0.420	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	66	210	49	0.233	6	24	0.321	4	4	3	1	2	0	0	0.750	0.260	0.343	0.405	OK
TJ Friedl	CF	52	173	31	0.179	3	11	0.259	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.197	0.263	0.348	OK
Matt McLain	2B	77	266	51	0.192	8	25	0.293	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.161	0.252	0.267	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	35	9	3	3	3	4	0.257

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zack Wheeler	Starter	13	78.6	2.40	0.954	9.6	84	6.0	6	1	1	0	4	98	6.0	4	1
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	30	29.2	0.92	0.856	13.9	45	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	23	1.0	0	1
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	37	32.3	2.79	1.238	11.1	40	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	37	26.1	7.24	1.992	14.8	43	1.0	1	1	1	2	0	18	1.0	0	1

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andrew Abbott	Starter	18	92.9	3.97	1.475	7.1	73	5.0	4	3	3	2	8	101	5.0	8	3
Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	16	14.4	6.88	1.597	8.1	13	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	23	1.1	1	2
Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	26	22.5	2.80	1.067	9.6	24	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0
Caleb Ferguson	Middle Reliever	16	12.7	2.13	1.654	11.3	16	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	21	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

PHI wins 5-3

Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins

SEA 47-44 (4.09 RPG / 3.79 RA)

1 - 5

MIA 49-42 (4.59 RPG / 4.33 RA)

WINNER: MIA wins 5-1 TARGET: SEA 1 - 5 MIA (MIA) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	7
MIA	0	1	0	0	0	4	0	0	x	5	9

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed2.1

Run Diff21.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs6.4

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff16.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SEA Season Quality

Record47-44

Win%0.516

Run Diff27

RD/Game0.297

MIA Season Quality

Record49-42

Win%0.538

Run Diff24

RD/Game0.264

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
J.P. Crawford	3B	73	260	55	0.212	10	25	0.331	5	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.199	0.303	0.312	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	83	304	87	0.286	9	41	0.375	5	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.274	0.341	0.462	OK
Dominic Canzone	DH	76	205	56	0.273	14	37	0.343	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.258	0.326	0.535	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	59	220	36	0.164	9	28	0.264	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.183	0.283	0.326	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	84	331	83	0.251	8	35	0.312	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.229	0.284	0.314	OK
Luke Raley	RF	75	219	50	0.228	14	35	0.293	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.206	0.251	0.373	OK
Cole Young	2B	91	327	84	0.257	9	41	0.317	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.239	0.286	0.368	OK
Victor Robles	CF	27	82	20	0.244	0	4	0.279	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.208	0.247	0.273	OK
Colt Emerson	SS	41	132	28	0.212	7	19	0.283	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.218	0.275	0.369	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	7	1	1	2	9	0.206

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Liam Hicks	DH	79	276	80	0.290	13	56	0.365	5	4	1	1	3	1	0	0.250	0.286	0.351	0.398	OK
Kyle Stowers	1B	66	247	61	0.247	11	39	0.335	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.275	0.342	0.535	OK
Otto Lopez	SS	89	356	123	0.346	9	43	0.376	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.325	0.356	0.570	OK
Xavier Edwards	2B	90	328	99	0.302	6	35	0.387	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.275	0.389	0.386	OK
Griffin Conine	LF	22	62	14	0.226	3	10	0.342	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.130	0.253	0.242	OK
Owen Caissie	RF	77	216	51	0.236	11	49	0.289	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.246	0.293	0.486	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	87	307	59	0.192	5	22	0.316	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.195	0.299	0.322	OK
Joe Mack	C	47	142	36	0.254	7	23	0.312	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.244	0.297	0.493	OK
Javier Sanoja	3B	63	209	58	0.278	3	34	0.312	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.262	0.301	0.443	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	9	5	5	4	7	0.273

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bryan Woo	Starter	17	98.4	4.21	1.037	8.9	97	5.2	7	3	3	3	6	110	5.2	6	3
Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	34	30.7	4.10	1.336	14.1	48	1.1	1	1	1	1	0	24	1.1	0	1
José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	40	32.8	2.74	1.463	8.5	31	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Max Meyer	Starter	18	101.6	2.57	1.122	9.9	112	6.0	4	0	0	2	6	103	6.0	6	0
Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	28	24.6	7.68	1.545	12.4	34	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	20	1.0	2	1
Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	37	31.1	4.92	1.768	11.0	38	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	36	33.8	3.46	1.154	12.2	46	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

MIA wins 5-1

Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants

TOR 42-49 (3.92 RPG / 4.48 RA)

5 - 2

SF 39-52 (4.19 RPG / 4.76 RA)

WINNER: TOR wins 5-2 TARGET: TOR 5 - 2 SF (TOR) Confidence: 61.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	0	0	5	9
SF	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs2.3

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-22.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SF Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff-4.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TOR Season Quality

Record42-48

Win%0.467

Run Diff-42

RD/Game-0.467

SF Season Quality

Record38-52

Win%0.422

Run Diff-61

RD/Game-0.678

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2778; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ernie Clement	2B	88	335	98	0.293	7	29	0.315	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.249	0.273	0.363	OK
Nathan Lukes	RF	56	183	52	0.284	4	17	0.330	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	0.500	0.247	0.280	0.355	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	85	315	83	0.263	4	35	0.342	5	5	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.228	0.312	0.327	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	87	319	75	0.235	20	55	0.315	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.226	0.291	0.426	OK
Brandon Valenzuela	C	52	154	36	0.234	7	19	0.320	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.201	0.292	0.331	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	72	260	64	0.246	7	23	0.311	4	3	2	1	0	1	1	0.667	0.198	0.255	0.325	OK
Sean Keys	DH	7	25	4	0.160	1	3	0.160	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.211	0.220	0.369	OK
Jonatan Clase	LF	1	1	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.105	0.119	0.168
Andrés Giménez	SS	84	274	64	0.234	7	35	0.280	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.203	0.244	0.322	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	36	9	5	5	3	9	0.250

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Heliot Ramos	RF	51	193	51	0.264	8	28	0.302	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.262	0.299	0.538	OK
Luis Arraez	2B	85	336	112	0.333	4	32	0.370	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.282	0.325	0.422	OK
Casey Schmitt	3B	81	323	90	0.279	17	44	0.305	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.241	0.256	0.420	OK
Rafael Devers	DH	90	342	85	0.249	18	47	0.317	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.261	0.335	0.557	OK
Jung Hoo Lee	CF	81	307	98	0.319	5	33	0.352	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.267	0.299	0.390	OK
Willy Adames	SS	85	332	77	0.232	14	34	0.281	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.236	0.297	0.401	OK
Bryce Eldridge	1B	49	169	47	0.278	7	20	0.369	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.249	0.339	0.433	OK
Victor Bericoto	LF	19	51	16	0.314	4	8	0.327	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.177	0.198	0.346	OK
Drew Cavanaugh	C	7	20	4	0.200	0	2	0.238	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.229	0.265	0.308	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	31	4	2	2	1	7	0.129

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Spencer Miles	Starter	24	49.1	3.12	1.141	10.1	55	5.0	4	2	2	1	4	79	5.0	4	2
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	42	43.5	1.03	1.034	13.4	65	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	20	1.2	1	0
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	42	37.4	1.93	1.310	5.1	21	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	41	34.7	4.93	1.585	16.1	62	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.1	1	0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trevor McDonald	Starter	11	54.9	4.59	1.275	8.2	50	5.0	5	2	2	1	5	98	5.0	5	2
Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	36	32.1	4.77	1.464	12.6	45	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Ryan Walker	Middle Reliever	24	20.6	6.12	1.845	8.3	19	1.0	3	3	3	1	1	26	1.0	1	3
Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	28	19.8	4.09	1.818	15.0	33	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14	1.0	2	0
Dylan Smith	Middle Reliever	13	10.5	4.29	1.429	10.3	12	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

TOR wins 5-2

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres

ARI Recent Form

SD Recent Form

ARI Season Quality

SD Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates

ATL Recent Form

PIT Recent Form

ATL Season Quality

PIT Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox

BOS Recent Form

CHW Recent Form

BOS Season Quality

CHW Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles

CHC Recent Form

BAL Recent Form

CHC Season Quality

BAL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins

CLE Recent Form

MIN Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

MIN Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers

COL Recent Form

LAD Recent Form

COL Season Quality

LAD Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals

HOU Recent Form

WAS Recent Form

HOU Season Quality

WAS Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets