MLB Predictions — July 3, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
BAL @ CIN	6 - 3	6 - 3	BAL	BAL	BAL wins 6-3	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BOS @ LAA	3 - 2	3 - 2	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 3-2	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHW @ CLE	4 - 2	4 - 2	CHW	CHW	CHW wins 4-2	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIA @ OAK	5 - 1	5 - 1	MIA	MIA	MIA wins 5-1	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ ARI	4 - 3	4 - 3	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 4-3	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIN @ NYY	3 - 5	3 - 5	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 5-3	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ ATL	1 - 5	1 - 5	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 5-1	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ WAS	3 - 4	3 - 4	WAS	WAS	WAS wins 4-3	63%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ LAD	3 - 4	3 - 4	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 4-3	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SF @ COL	6 - 3	6 - 3	SF	SF	SF wins 6-3	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
STL @ CHC	3 - 4	3 - 4	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 4-3	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ HOU	6 - 3	6 - 3	TB	TB	TB wins 6-3	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TOR @ SEA	4 - 3	4 - 3	TOR	TOR	TOR wins 4-3	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds

BAL 40-48 (4.58 RPG / 4.95 RA)

6 - 3

CIN 40-46 (4.23 RPG / 4.87 RA)

WINNER: BAL wins 6-3 TARGET: BAL 6 - 3 CIN (BAL) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	2	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	6	7
CIN	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	8

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff5.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff-11.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

BAL Season Quality

Record40-48

Win%0.455

Run Diff-33

RD/Game-0.375

CIN Season Quality

Record40-46

Win%0.465

Run Diff-55

RD/Game-0.640

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2487; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Gunnar Henderson	SS	85	353	80	0.227	15	38	0.297	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.249	0.306	0.390	OK
Adley Rutschman	DH	56	208	53	0.255	8	43	0.322	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.233	0.299	0.382	OK
Taylor Ward	LF	85	322	81	0.252	5	22	0.378	5	3	0	0	0	2	2	0.000	0.230	0.342	0.345	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	86	322	81	0.252	19	59	0.341	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.249	0.340	0.454	OK
Samuel Basallo	C	71	241	62	0.257	12	37	0.314	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.263	0.318	0.424	OK
Dylan Beavers	RF	35	111	26	0.234	2	12	0.312	4	3	1	1	2	1	2	0.333	0.257	0.334	0.404	OK
Colton Cowser	CF	69	179	41	0.229	7	24	0.317	4	2	1	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.247	0.339	0.364	OK
Blaze Alexander	3B	62	188	58	0.309	3	26	0.361	4	3	1	1	2	0	1	0.333	0.274	0.322	0.423	OK
Jackson Holliday	2B	35	101	20	0.198	5	14	0.284	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.223	0.311	0.397	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	33	7	6	6	5	12	0.212

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Elly De La Cruz	SS	66	264	73	0.277	13	40	0.344	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.265	0.324	0.447	OK
Sal Stewart	3B	85	323	84	0.260	17	60	0.346	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.265	0.338	0.492	OK
Spencer Steer	1B	80	283	67	0.237	13	34	0.312	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.227	0.289	0.376	OK
Eugenio Suárez	DH	57	206	43	0.209	8	29	0.278	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.218	0.283	0.381	OK
Noelvi Marte	RF	32	105	21	0.200	5	9	0.250	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.225	0.274	0.392	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	57	204	49	0.240	13	37	0.349	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.230	0.336	0.392	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	64	204	47	0.230	6	24	0.318	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.278	0.361	0.426	OK
Matt McLain	CF	75	261	51	0.195	8	25	0.295	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.188	0.275	0.303	OK
Edwin Arroyo	2B	23	74	19	0.257	0	4	0.309	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.240	0.270	0.326	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	35	8	3	3	1	7	0.229

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trevor Rogers	Starter	15	76.3	5.19	1.363	7.2	61	5.2	4	1	1	1	5	87	5.2	5	1
Ryan Helsley	Middle Reliever	17	14.4	4.38	1.528	13.1	21	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	36	21.4	2.94	1.075	11.4	27	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	15	0.2	1	0
Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever	30	36.4	3.46	1.154	10.4	42	1.2	3	2	2	0	0	23	1.2	0	2

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brady Singer	Starter	16	75.7	5.23	1.572	7.7	65	4.2	5	3	3	3	8	89	4.2	8	3
Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	15	13.4	6.72	1.493	8.1	12	1.0	2	3	3	2	0	27	1.0	0	3
Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	25	21.5	2.93	1.116	9.2	22	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	14	0.2	0	0
Caleb Ferguson	Middle Reliever	15	11.6	2.33	1.724	11.6	15	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	43	34.8	3.62	1.638	9.3	36	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15	1.0	2	0
Chase Petty	Middle Reliever	9	18.9	5.24	1.323	4.3	9	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	17	0.2	1	0

Game Summary

BAL wins 6-3

Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels

BOS 37-48 (3.96 RPG / 4.05 RA)

3 - 2

LAA 36-52 (4.44 RPG / 4.97 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 3-2 TARGET: BOS 3 - 2 LAA (BOS) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	3	8
LAA	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	5

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff1.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-11.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

BOS Season Quality

Record37-48

Win%0.435

Run Diff-7

RD/Game-0.082

LAA Season Quality

Record36-51

Win%0.414

Run Diff-45

RD/Game-0.517

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4671; margin adjustment: -0.1962; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Nate Eaton	RF	9	23	4	0.174	1	4	0.321	5	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.148	0.259	0.293	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	79	301	85	0.282	7	35	0.331	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.268	0.303	0.403	OK
Wilyer Abreu	DH	83	319	85	0.266	10	39	0.331	4	2	1	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.240	0.310	0.389	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	81	293	83	0.283	18	53	0.375	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.280	0.350	0.504	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	76	253	58	0.229	7	36	0.286	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.256	0.308	0.434	OK
Romy Gonzalez	2B	3	11	2	0.182	0	0	0.182	4	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.245	0.254	0.333	OK
Jarren Duran	LF	78	312	61	0.196	12	39	0.251	4	4	2	0	0	0	2	0.500	0.194	0.239	0.307	OK
Andruw Monasterio	SS	47	133	29	0.218	3	12	0.257	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.133	0.177	0.277	OK
Carlos Narváez	C	46	140	27	0.193	2	5	0.263	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.200	0.252	0.296	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	8	3	3	1	9	0.235

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	85	334	75	0.225	18	42	0.321	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.221	0.295	0.418	OK
Nolan Schanuel	1B	69	260	69	0.265	6	31	0.334	4	2	1	0	0	2	1	0.500	0.265	0.321	0.372	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	19	75	20	0.267	3	13	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.262	0.311	0.406	OK
Jorge Soler	DH	66	240	53	0.221	11	37	0.308	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.234	0.317	0.393	OK
Vaughn Grissom	2B	47	160	37	0.231	4	29	0.306	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.238	0.292	0.368	OK
Jo Adell	RF	87	341	83	0.243	11	45	0.288	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.236	0.255	0.379	OK
Jose Siri	CF	30	72	19	0.264	4	16	0.316	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.228	0.279	0.377	OK
Josh Lowe	LF	48	146	31	0.212	6	18	0.252	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.249	0.285	0.419	OK
Logan O'Hoppe	C	58	189	43	0.228	4	23	0.290	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.210	0.258	0.315	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	5	2	2	5	10	0.156

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jake Bennett	Starter	6	32.3	3.34	1.084	7.0	25	5.2	5	2	2	3	9	102	5.2	9	2
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	25	24.2	1.12	1.116	11.9	32	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	21	1.1	1	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	28	27.2	2.65	1.066	10.6	32	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	22	15.5	7.55	2.000	14.5	25	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Reid Detmers	Starter	17	96.4	4.01	1.100	10.5	112	6.0	4	2	2	1	6	106	6.0	6	2
Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	32	34.7	3.63	1.326	10.1	39	1.0	3	0	0	0	1	22	1.0	1	0
Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	34	35.6	4.55	1.433	13.7	54	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	17	1.0	1	1
Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	19	16.5	2.73	0.970	13.6	25	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

BOS wins 3-2

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

CHW 45-41 (4.83 RPG / 4.55 RA)

4 - 2

CLE 46-42 (3.99 RPG / 4.07 RA)

WINNER: CHW wins 4-2 TARGET: CHW 4 - 2 CLE (CHW) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	0	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	9
CLE	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	7

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.900

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed1.4

Run Diff22.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs3.1

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff-9.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

CHW Season Quality

Record45-41

Win%0.523

Run Diff24

RD/Game0.279

CLE Season Quality

Record46-42

Win%0.523

Run Diff-7

RD/Game-0.080

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3594; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Tristan Peters	CF	68	194	56	0.289	3	24	0.344	5	5	3	1	3	0	0	0.600	0.180	0.238	0.338	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	74	271	59	0.218	20	45	0.312	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.216	0.284	0.448	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	74	281	76	0.270	6	25	0.334	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.248	0.301	0.354	OK
Jacob Gonzalez	SS	17	48	8	0.167	1	5	0.273	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.209	0.274	0.289	OK
Kyle Teel	C	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.245	0.310	0.403
Miguel Vargas	3B	75	275	65	0.236	16	44	0.350	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.230	0.321	0.387	OK
Braden Montgomery	OF	12	42	11	0.262	1	5	0.311	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.251	0.303	0.438	OK
Sam Antonacci	SS	58	199	58	0.291	4	22	0.391	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.288	0.347	0.473	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	69	214	50	0.234	9	37	0.292	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	0.667	0.226	0.285	0.460	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	36	9	4	4	3	7	0.250

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Travis Bazzana	2B	56	207	52	0.251	7	26	0.346	5	5	2	0	0	0	2	0.400	0.233	0.318	0.359	OK
David Fry	LF	52	117	26	0.222	6	13	0.321	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.259	0.348	0.526	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	69	260	72	0.277	7	39	0.340	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.289	0.343	0.418	OK
Rhys Hoskins	1B	66	199	36	0.181	7	28	0.311	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.232	0.346	0.376	OK
Kyle Manzardo	DH	77	239	55	0.230	10	29	0.321	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.231	0.317	0.397	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	84	285	77	0.270	6	37	0.339	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.268	0.324	0.409	OK
Gabriel Arias	3B	20	68	15	0.221	3	6	0.254	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.228	0.263	0.371	OK
Austin Hedges	C	39	115	31	0.270	2	12	0.331	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.265	0.315	0.423	OK
Steven Kwan	CF	77	271	59	0.218	1	13	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.242	0.337	0.325	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	2	2	3	6	0.206

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Davis Martin	Starter	14	79.8	3.38	1.216	9.4	83	6.0	6	1	1	2	2	114	6.0	2	1
Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	2	1.1	16.36	3.636	0.0	0	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	1.48	1.311	11.8	8	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	18	1.0	2	0
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	24	20.9	1.72	1.483	9.9	23	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	1.0	2	0

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gavin Williams	Starter	17	100.5	3.85	1.184	10.5	117	5.1	7	4	4	2	5	96	5.1	5	4
Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	36	36.0	3.25	1.278	14.2	57	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	28	19.8	3.64	1.667	9.5	21	0.2	2	0	0	0	1	15	0.2	1	0
Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	30	26.9	2.01	0.967	12.4	37	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever	30	18.4	4.40	1.576	22.0	45	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	16	0.2	0	0
Shawn Armstrong	Middle Reliever	27	21.8	2.89	1.330	11.1	27	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	16	0.1	1	0

Game Summary

CHW wins 4-2

Miami Marlins @ Oakland Athletics

MIA 46-42 (4.43 RPG / 4.31 RA)

5 - 1

OAK 41-46 (4.61 RPG / 5.29 RA)

WINNER: MIA wins 5-1 TARGET: MIA 5 - 1 OAK (MIA) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIA	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	7
OAK	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	6

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.9

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff6.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff-6.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

MIA Season Quality

Record46-42

Win%0.523

Run Diff11

RD/Game0.125

OAK Season Quality

Record41-46

Win%0.471

Run Diff-59

RD/Game-0.678

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.8804; margin adjustment: -0.3697; applied: True

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Liam Hicks	C	76	262	74	0.282	13	54	0.359	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.292	0.353	0.419	OK
Kyle Stowers	1B	64	238	55	0.231	8	34	0.321	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.252	0.318	0.427	OK
Otto Lopez	SS	86	342	115	0.336	7	37	0.368	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.315	0.342	0.518	OK
Xavier Edwards	2B	87	319	96	0.301	6	32	0.380	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.310	0.387	0.433	OK
Heriberto Hernández	LF	56	174	38	0.218	8	29	0.283	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.233	0.302	0.403	OK
Griffin Conine	RF	19	52	14	0.269	3	10	0.367	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.184	0.294	0.344	OK
Owen Caissie	DH	75	209	50	0.239	10	47	0.294	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.304	0.352	0.536	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	84	299	56	0.187	4	21	0.307	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.179	0.280	0.275	OK
Leo Jiménez	3B	32	91	19	0.209	0	4	0.284	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.165	0.225	0.252	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	5	5	3	8	0.206

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Nick Kurtz	1B	86	312	87	0.279	19	64	0.422	4	3	2	0	0	1	1	0.667	0.253	0.376	0.420	OK
Shea Langeliers	C	79	328	87	0.265	20	44	0.330	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.243	0.299	0.421	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	73	214	42	0.196	5	22	0.280	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.235	0.319	0.333	OK
Colby Thomas	LF	36	84	20	0.238	4	11	0.273	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.259	0.290	0.462	OK
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer	3B	1	4	3	0.750	0	1	0.750	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.275	0.283	0.574	MODERATE
Carlos Cortes	DH	65	184	50	0.272	6	22	0.354	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.133	0.209	0.234	OK
Henry Bolte	CF	42	147	43	0.293	2	14	0.365	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.241	0.299	0.328	OK
Jeff McNeil	2B	78	249	57	0.229	3	22	0.295	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.218	0.269	0.299	OK
Alika Williams	SS	23	69	21	0.304	2	8	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.163	0.200	0.306	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	6	1	1	2	9	0.182

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tyler Phillips	Starter	22	63.1	3.14	1.363	7.1	50	5.2	5	1	1	2	6	94	5.2	6	1
Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	27	23.6	7.25	1.441	12.6	33	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10	1.0	0	0
Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	36	30.1	5.08	1.827	10.8	36	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	34	32.6	3.59	1.135	12.1	44	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
John King	Middle Reliever	39	32.0	2.81	0.875	8.4	30	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	15	0.1	1	0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jack Perkins	Starter	22	47.5	6.44	1.432	11.7	62	4.1	7	5	5	1	5	80	4.1	5	5
Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	21	19.5	6.46	1.282	12.5	27	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	42	30.6	4.41	1.993	15.0	51	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Mason Barnett	Middle Reliever	9	14.4	1.25	1.042	11.9	19	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	4	1.1	0	0
Justin Sterner	Middle Reliever	40	33.3	4.59	1.321	10.8	40	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	26	36.1	3.74	1.440	11.7	47	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	0.1	1	0
Geoff Hartlieb	Reliever	4	8.2	5.49	1.707	3.3	3	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

MIA wins 5-1

Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

MIL 53-32 (5.13 RPG / 3.67 RA)

4 - 3

ARI 43-43 (4.27 RPG / 4.57 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 4-3 TARGET: MIL 4 - 3 ARI (MIL) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	4	8
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	3	6

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed3.0

Run Diff7.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed2.5

Run Diff12.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIL Season Quality

Record53-32

Win%0.624

Run Diff124

RD/Game1.459

ARI Season Quality

Record43-43

Win%0.500

Run Diff-26

RD/Game-0.302

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.9464; margin adjustment: -0.8175; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Christian Yelich	DH	51	197	49	0.249	5	26	0.332	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.233	0.312	0.347	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	51	217	64	0.295	12	33	0.353	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.276	0.340	0.476	OK
Brice Turang	2B	80	309	81	0.262	12	49	0.361	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.273	0.358	0.463	OK
William Contreras	C	80	311	91	0.293	9	51	0.356	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.261	0.321	0.388	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	74	255	68	0.267	15	51	0.365	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.264	0.349	0.478	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	70	226	59	0.261	6	34	0.351	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.307	0.385	0.564	OK
Sal Frelick	RF	75	241	60	0.249	3	29	0.316	4	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.305	0.364	0.418	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	15	44	8	0.182	0	2	0.275	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.212	0.302	0.294	OK
David Hamilton	3B	64	194	45	0.232	3	13	0.300	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.252	0.308	0.365	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	8	4	4	3	8	0.235

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Tommy Troy	OF	23	75	18	0.240	3	5	0.321	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.241	0.313	0.415	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	75	257	61	0.237	4	27	0.354	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.221	0.342	0.327	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	73	297	78	0.263	12	46	0.315	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.271	0.323	0.450	OK
Pavin Smith	DH	17	46	8	0.174	1	5	0.264	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.238	0.314	0.345	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	51	174	48	0.276	6	25	0.358	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.275	0.351	0.454	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	73	247	59	0.239	8	32	0.315	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.231	0.291	0.340	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	75	278	79	0.284	13	42	0.372	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.273	0.351	0.532	OK
Max Kepler	LF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.234	0.299	0.387
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	LF	30	112	23	0.205	1	13	0.260	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.197	0.243	0.280	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	6	3	3	1	10	0.182

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kyle Harrison	Starter	15	75.6	2.62	1.058	11.4	96	6.0	1	0	0	1	7	89	6.0	7	0
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	33	33.0	2.18	0.909	12.0	44	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	19	1.0	1	2
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	34	30.2	3.28	1.126	9.5	32	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	40	46.2	3.51	1.494	13.6	70	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	15	86.7	2.49	1.257	6.7	65	6.2	3	0	0	1	7	106	6.2	7	0
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	20	1.0	1	1
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1	1.0	9.00	2.000	0.0	0	0.1	4	3	3	0	0	21	0.1	0	3
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	2	2.1	0.00	0.476	8.6	2	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

MIL wins 4-3

Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees

MIN 42-46 (4.88 RPG / 5.17 RA)

3 - 5

NYY 48-38 (4.85 RPG / 3.84 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 5-3 TARGET: MIN 3 - 5 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	7
NYY	0	2	0	1	2	0	0	0	x	5	7

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-4.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs2.4

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff-24.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

MIN Season Quality

Record36-39

Win%0.480

Run Diff-5

RD/Game-0.067

NYY Season Quality

Record43-34

Win%0.558

Run Diff67

RD/Game0.870

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.0545; margin adjustment: 0.4429; applied: True

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trevor Larnach	LF	69	227	66	0.291	5	28	0.374	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.215	0.291	0.345	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	81	307	77	0.251	14	46	0.304	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.273	0.319	0.422	OK
Kody Clemens	2B	73	266	64	0.241	14	38	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.162	0.213	0.346	OK
Josh Bell	DH	85	308	75	0.244	11	56	0.301	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.245	0.296	0.463	OK
Royce Lewis	1B	54	194	41	0.211	8	23	0.289	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.230	0.298	0.386	OK
Victor Caratini	C	63	201	48	0.239	7	33	0.335	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0.000	0.255	0.343	0.420	OK
Ryan Kreidler	CF	39	104	29	0.279	5	23	0.342	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.273	0.333	0.462	OK
Tristan Gray	SS	54	155	36	0.232	4	28	0.274	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.217	0.260	0.313	OK
Luke Keaschall	RF	81	280	69	0.246	3	25	0.331	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.231	0.317	0.357	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	7	3	3	3	7	0.212

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ben Rice	DH	80	301	81	0.269	23	53	0.361	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.227	0.309	0.439	OK
Jasson Domínguez	RF	25	94	20	0.213	3	9	0.253	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.221	0.255	0.368	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	84	307	78	0.254	11	49	0.352	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.216	0.315	0.353	OK
Paul Goldschmidt	1B	58	212	59	0.278	14	41	0.333	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.233	0.285	0.419	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	81	289	65	0.225	12	33	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.230	0.294	0.379	OK
Ryan McMahon	3B	63	186	39	0.210	8	23	0.265	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.235	0.287	0.400	OK
José Caballero	SS	73	244	60	0.246	8	28	0.303	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.225	0.269	0.341	OK
Austin Wells	C	57	170	26	0.153	4	10	0.253	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0.000	0.176	0.260	0.255	OK
Spencer Jones	CF	28	73	17	0.233	2	7	0.317	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.246	0.319	0.385	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	30	7	5	5	5	6	0.233

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Mike Paredes	Starter	6	23.7	4.56	1.350	4.9	13	4.2	3	2	2	4	4	84	4.2	4	2
Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	26	19.5	1.85	1.077	10.6	23	1.0	1	2	2	1	0	20	1.0	0	2
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	30	33.5	4.57	1.642	10.7	40	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Travis Adams	Middle Reliever	15	19.8	7.73	1.667	13.2	29	0.1	2	1	1	0	1	14	0.1	1	1
Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	36	24.2	6.69	2.025	10.0	27	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	17	0.2	1	0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gerrit Cole	Starter	7	36.5	4.19	1.260	8.4	34	5.0	3	1	1	3	5	90	5.0	5	1
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	40	26.4	3.41	1.705	16.0	47	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	42	32.7	1.93	1.498	11.8	43	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Camilo Doval	Middle Reliever	37	27.3	5.93	1.502	10.5	32	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Tim Hill	Middle Reliever	37	25.5	3.88	1.137	5.3	15	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	9	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 5-3

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

NYM 36-51 (3.98 RPG / 4.54 RA)

1 - 5

ATL 50-36 (4.71 RPG / 3.79 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 5-1 TARGET: NYM 1 - 5 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	8
ATL	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	x	5	7

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs3.2

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff-19.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs2.9

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-14.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

NYM Season Quality

Record36-51

Win%0.414

Run Diff-49

RD/Game-0.563

ATL Season Quality

Record50-36

Win%0.581

Run Diff79

RD/Game0.919

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.7332; margin adjustment: 0.728; applied: True

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
A.J. Ewing	CF	47	157	42	0.268	4	19	0.352	4	4	3	0	0	0	0	0.750	0.255	0.328	0.407	OK
Juan Soto	LF	67	239	71	0.297	17	39	0.405	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.260	0.381	0.440	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	86	345	86	0.249	10	46	0.294	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.233	0.279	0.353	OK
Francisco Lindor	SS	30	116	25	0.216	4	9	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.226	0.297	0.431	OK
Carson Benge	RF	82	315	82	0.260	10	34	0.319	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.254	0.300	0.394	OK
Jared Young	1B	39	114	26	0.228	6	13	0.296	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.132	0.193	0.255	OK
Francisco Alvarez	DH	55	183	44	0.240	9	19	0.303	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.225	0.277	0.423	OK
Brett Baty	2B	77	247	53	0.215	3	27	0.291	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.198	0.286	0.297	OK
Luis Torrens	C	49	143	31	0.217	2	16	0.273	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.140	0.186	0.251	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	35	8	1	1	0	4	0.229

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drake Baldwin	C	63	244	63	0.258	15	40	0.341	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.227	0.291	0.362	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	86	327	89	0.272	13	48	0.322	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.243	0.293	0.396	OK
Matt Olson	1B	86	331	89	0.269	20	52	0.340	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.255	0.324	0.435	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	82	302	82	0.272	8	46	0.325	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.287	0.340	0.434	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	79	288	85	0.295	14	44	0.328	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.256	0.299	0.399	OK
Dominic Smith	DH	65	187	52	0.278	6	33	0.310	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.273	0.310	0.397	OK
Austin Riley	3B	86	309	64	0.207	8	38	0.284	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.212	0.273	0.317	OK
Mike Yastrzemski	RF	74	207	46	0.222	4	19	0.305	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.228	0.313	0.345	OK
Jorge Mateo	SS	44	112	29	0.259	4	11	0.303	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.204	0.253	0.339	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	7	5	5	3	5	0.226

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Christian Scott	Starter	10	42.2	3.41	1.422	11.3	53	5.2	4	3	3	3	5	95	5.2	5	3
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	30	26.7	3.71	1.423	13.8	41	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	0.0	0	0
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	34	33.9	2.12	0.855	10.4	39	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	34	26.1	2.76	1.494	11.7	34	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	5	1.0	0	2

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Grant Holmes	Starter	17	77.0	4.32	1.455	8.3	71	4.1	3	0	0	0	3	74	4.1	3	0
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	27	27.4	1.31	1.022	10.2	31	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	40	33.2	1.90	0.783	12.5	46	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	34	27.4	4.27	1.387	10.5	32	1.2	3	1	1	0	0	17	1.2	0	1
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	26	29.3	2.76	1.195	11.4	37	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

ATL wins 5-1

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals

PIT 44-44 (5.14 RPG / 4.85 RA)

3 - 4

WAS 45-43 (5.34 RPG / 5.15 RA)

WINNER: WAS wins 4-3 TARGET: PIT 3 - 4 WAS (WAS) Confidence: 63.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	3	7
WAS	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	x	4	6

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.7

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff10.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.9

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff7.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

PIT Season Quality

Record44-44

Win%0.500

Run Diff25

RD/Game0.284

WAS Season Quality

Record45-43

Win%0.511

Run Diff17

RD/Game0.193

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0739; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Konnor Griffin	SS	55	212	57	0.269	5	23	0.323	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.264	0.303	0.422	OK
Brandon Lowe	DH	81	317	77	0.243	20	57	0.319	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.243	0.315	0.449	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	88	318	89	0.280	11	53	0.395	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.254	0.363	0.399	OK
Esmerlyn Valdez	RF	19	57	18	0.316	6	15	0.375	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.329	0.392	0.662	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	1B	71	274	78	0.285	13	51	0.336	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.286	0.330	0.472	OK
Nick Gonzales	2B	81	305	93	0.305	4	38	0.358	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.322	0.372	0.438	OK
Jake Mangum	CF	59	197	61	0.310	1	14	0.351	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.296	0.335	0.383	OK
Endy Rodríguez	C	32	93	25	0.269	5	16	0.376	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.268	0.370	0.497	OK
Jared Triolo	3B	51	164	38	0.232	1	14	0.308	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.240	0.306	0.373	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	7	3	3	2	11	0.206

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	RF	88	339	90	0.265	22	55	0.389	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.271	0.381	0.518	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	81	268	75	0.280	16	59	0.310	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.227	0.266	0.496	OK
José Tena	DH	62	151	34	0.225	3	16	0.287	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.272	0.329	0.434	OK
CJ Abrams	SS	84	311	85	0.273	18	60	0.355	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.241	0.302	0.460	OK
Dylan Crews	CF	37	145	34	0.234	5	17	0.284	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.261	0.301	0.369	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	86	336	84	0.250	8	39	0.304	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.256	0.297	0.391	OK
Keibert Ruiz	C	55	179	51	0.285	6	33	0.316	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.284	0.319	0.445	OK
Jorbit Vivas	3B	61	160	40	0.250	3	15	0.322	3	3	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.256	0.317	0.383	OK
Nasim Nuñez	2B	76	245	57	0.233	1	28	0.320	3	2	1	1	0	1	0	0.500	0.223	0.313	0.326	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	30	6	4	4	2	7	0.200

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Mitch Keller	Starter	17	92.7	4.95	1.327	7.1	73	5.1	4	4	4	2	5	89	5.1	5	4
Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	36	33.0	4.91	1.424	8.7	32	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	0.0	0	0
Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	33	27.6	4.89	1.594	16.0	49	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.0	1	0
Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	37	43.0	3.98	1.488	11.5	55	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	11	1.1	1	0
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	36	33.9	3.72	1.032	11.2	42	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	0.1	0	0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Foster Griffin	Starter	17	97.4	2.96	1.047	9.1	98	6.0	2	0	0	2	6	95	6.0	6	0
Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	25	23.0	3.52	1.435	11.0	28	1.0	1	1	1	0	3	16	1.0	3	1
PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	33	29.2	3.39	1.507	6.8	22	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	19	1.0	0	2
Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	26	22.0	4.09	1.318	7.4	18	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

WAS wins 4-3

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers

SD 43-43 (3.95 RPG / 4.43 RA)

3 - 4

LAD 57-31 (5.39 RPG / 3.55 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 4-3 TARGET: SD 3 - 4 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	9
LAD	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	x	4	5

SD Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed7.3

Run Diff-33.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs6.8

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff31.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SD Season Quality

Record43-42

Win%0.506

Run Diff-36

RD/Game-0.424

LAD Season Quality

Record56-31

Win%0.644

Run Diff157

RD/Game1.805

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.4348; margin adjustment: 1.0226; applied: True

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	84	332	93	0.280	5	32	0.343	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.242	0.297	0.403	OK
Jake Cronenworth	2B	35	110	18	0.164	2	7	0.276	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.210	0.282	0.316	OK
Manny Machado	DH	84	308	59	0.192	17	48	0.278	4	4	1	1	0	0	3	0.250	0.226	0.312	0.477	OK
Gavin Sheets	LF	79	247	58	0.235	14	38	0.325	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.239	0.319	0.462	OK
Ty France	1B	57	181	49	0.271	10	30	0.328	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.273	0.317	0.476	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	82	321	68	0.212	9	32	0.271	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.211	0.263	0.349	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	82	284	66	0.232	8	32	0.323	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.245	0.331	0.341	OK
Sung-Mun Song	3B	24	60	14	0.233	1	9	0.333	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.208	0.304	0.348	OK
Rodolfo Durán	C	26	70	9	0.129	3	8	0.218	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.169	0.233	0.309	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	36	9	3	3	1	9	0.250

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	80	306	89	0.291	18	50	0.406	4	4	2	1	2	0	2	0.500	0.282	0.386	0.490	OK
Andy Pages	CF	87	340	92	0.271	16	62	0.329	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.281	0.332	0.468	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	85	320	94	0.294	14	47	0.384	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.318	0.405	0.533	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	51	210	52	0.248	11	29	0.300	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.292	0.334	0.482	OK
Max Muncy	3B	80	269	72	0.268	17	39	0.360	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.291	0.365	0.516	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	80	297	74	0.249	7	45	0.343	3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.303	0.389	0.461	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	54	193	52	0.269	7	32	0.342	3	2	1	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.272	0.346	0.420	OK
Dalton Rushing	C	51	160	42	0.262	10	29	0.339	3	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.289	0.350	0.522	OK
Alex Freeland	2B	62	177	40	0.226	3	17	0.308	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.225	0.312	0.318	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	29	5	4	4	3	9	0.172

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael King	Starter	17	94.0	3.64	1.213	7.9	83	5.1	5	4	4	2	6	100	5.1	6	4
Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	33	32.1	0.84	0.903	18.5	66	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	18	1.1	2	0
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	39	36.8	3.91	1.168	12.5	51	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	21	1.1	1	0

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shohei Ohtani	Starter	13	79.2	1.59	0.909	9.8	86	6.1	3	1	1	1	6	95	6.1	6	1
Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	37	32.1	2.24	0.779	11.8	42	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	10	1.0	0	0
Edgardo Henriquez	Middle Reliever	32	31.1	2.89	0.997	9.8	34	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	38	21.9	3.29	1.416	16.4	40	0.2	3	2	2	0	2	17	0.2	2	2

Game Summary

LAD wins 4-3

San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies

SF 37-50 (4.09 RPG / 4.67 RA)

6 - 3

COL 35-53 (4.74 RPG / 5.76 RA)

WINNER: SF wins 6-3 TARGET: SF 6 - 3 COL (SF) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	6	11
COL	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	3	4

SF Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.1

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-2.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

COL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.7

Avg Allowed5.4

Run Diff3.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak

SF Season Quality

Record37-50

Win%0.425

Run Diff-50

RD/Game-0.575

COL Season Quality

Record35-53

Win%0.398

Run Diff-90

RD/Game-1.023

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4894; margin adjustment: -0.2055; applied: True

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Luis Arraez	2B	81	320	107	0.334	4	31	0.369	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.308	0.342	0.475	OK
Casey Schmitt	3B	77	306	85	0.278	16	42	0.303	5	4	1	1	2	1	1	0.250	0.239	0.253	0.397	OK
Heliot Ramos	RF	47	175	45	0.257	6	23	0.296	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.264	0.303	0.507	OK
Rafael Devers	DH	86	327	80	0.245	15	44	0.310	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.267	0.332	0.547	OK
Jung Hoo Lee	CF	77	291	94	0.323	5	32	0.355	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.273	0.302	0.407	OK
Willy Adames	SS	81	319	74	0.232	14	32	0.274	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.252	0.294	0.448	OK
Bryce Eldridge	1B	45	154	43	0.279	6	17	0.371	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.260	0.347	0.415	OK
Victor Bericoto	LF	16	39	12	0.308	4	6	0.325	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.180	0.207	0.346	OK
Drew Cavanaugh	C	5	14	4	0.286	0	2	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.264	0.313	0.358	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	38	11	6	6	3	7	0.289

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	LF	67	242	72	0.298	7	40	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.275	0.311	0.488	OK
Mickey Moniak	DH	52	179	50	0.279	15	37	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.279	0.314	0.606	OK
Hunter Goodman	C	81	309	75	0.243	27	50	0.306	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.251	0.298	0.594	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	82	301	89	0.296	12	45	0.374	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.293	0.360	0.451	OK
Cole Carrigg	CF	20	67	18	0.269	3	13	0.358	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.279	0.365	0.442	OK
Tyler Freeman	RF	55	190	52	0.274	3	22	0.352	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.176	0.205	0.250	OK
Edouard Julien	2B	68	191	43	0.225	2	18	0.339	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.257	0.383	0.358	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	80	235	61	0.260	6	26	0.360	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.269	0.370	0.477	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	79	280	58	0.207	6	27	0.252	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.195	0.235	0.325	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	4	3	3	4	5	0.129

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Logan Webb	Starter	14	90.1	3.10	1.065	7.6	76	6.2	2	1	1	1	5	94	6.2	5	1
Ryan Walker	Middle Reliever	23	18.4	6.36	1.848	8.8	18	1.2	0	0	0	2	0	21	1.2	0	0
Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	27	18.6	4.35	1.935	15.0	31	0.2	2	2	2	1	0	18	0.2	0	2

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Feltner	Starter	11	51.6	4.53	1.279	6.1	35	5.0	7	4	4	2	5	92	5.0	5	4
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	25	39.1	3.45	1.304	8.3	36	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.1	1	0
Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	20	18.9	4.29	1.323	11.0	23	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	23	23.1	5.84	1.861	6.6	17	1.1	2	1	1	0	0	23	1.1	0	1
Brennan Bernardino	Middle Reliever	41	27.3	4.29	1.648	8.6	26	0.1	1	1	1	1	0	13	0.1	0	1

Game Summary

SF wins 6-3

St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs

STL 46-39 (4.66 RPG / 4.52 RA)

3 - 4

CHC 49-39 (5.1 RPG / 4.57 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 4-3 TARGET: STL 3 - 4 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
STL	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	7
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	4	9

STL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-5.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.900

Avg Runs7.7

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff42.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

STL Season Quality

Record45-39

Win%0.536

Run Diff-4

RD/Game-0.048

CHC Season Quality

Record49-38

Win%0.563

Run Diff63

RD/Game0.724

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.813; margin adjustment: 0.3415; applied: True

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	78	309	81	0.262	12	34	0.358	5	4	2	1	0	1	2	0.500	0.252	0.320	0.367	OK
Iván Herrera	C	83	303	75	0.248	10	35	0.385	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.226	0.309	0.345	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	81	315	92	0.292	18	60	0.348	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.266	0.323	0.443	OK
Nelson Velázquez	DH	16	39	12	0.308	3	7	0.372	5	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.278	0.331	0.502	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	82	317	86	0.271	14	57	0.337	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.228	0.285	0.415	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	74	277	69	0.249	3	33	0.317	5	3	0	0	0	2	3	0.000	0.262	0.321	0.358	OK
José Fermín	LF	48	124	33	0.266	3	15	0.313	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.252	0.303	0.372	OK
Blaze Jordan	3B	17	56	12	0.214	1	13	0.238	5	5	2	0	0	0	2	0.400	0.202	0.244	0.345	OK
Nathan Church	CF	61	205	52	0.254	7	24	0.294	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.216	0.253	0.397	OK
TEAM TOTALS									44	37	7	3	3	6	15	0.189

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	86	324	94	0.290	19	49	0.378	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.280	0.368	0.515	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	84	330	80	0.242	7	30	0.344	5	5	2	1	0	0	2	0.400	0.233	0.329	0.351	OK
Michael Busch	1B	85	311	74	0.238	11	47	0.372	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.236	0.357	0.439	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	71	266	73	0.274	13	42	0.357	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.296	0.367	0.497	OK
Ian Happ	LF	81	306	69	0.225	17	41	0.335	5	4	2	1	3	0	2	0.500	0.231	0.328	0.432	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	84	339	82	0.242	4	36	0.315	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.270	0.334	0.369	OK
Michael Conforto	DH	53	121	30	0.248	7	20	0.331	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.193	0.280	0.443	OK
Carson Kelly	C	60	196	55	0.281	4	29	0.365	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.267	0.354	0.397	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	81	277	59	0.213	16	57	0.304	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.264	0.337	0.588	OK
TEAM TOTALS									43	39	9	4	4	2	9	0.231

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andre Pallante	Starter	16	87.7	3.90	1.254	7.0	68	6.0	7	3	3	2	8	105	6.0	8	3
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	35	33.7	4.01	1.217	9.1	34	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	10	1.1	1	0
JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	39	30.3	4.75	1.617	11.0	37	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	38	32.2	3.91	1.335	8.4	30	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Matt Svanson	Reliever	33	31.1	8.10	1.929	10.4	36	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	17	0.1	0	1

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
David Peterson	Starter	1	5.2	3.46	0.962	3.5	2	4.1	7	3	3	4	3	104	4.1	3	3
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	37	32.6	3.87	1.503	12.4	45	1.2	0	0	0	1	2	25	1.2	2	0
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	26	18.9	4.76	1.481	13.8	29	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	17	1.0	3	0
Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	20	23.6	2.67	1.059	4.2	11	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	15	1.0	3	0
Ryan Rolison	Middle Reliever	27	27.1	2.32	1.292	10.3	31	2.0	0	0	0	0	4	34	2.0	4	0

Game Summary

CHC wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)

Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros

TB 51-33 (4.58 RPG / 4.14 RA)

6 - 3

HOU 43-46 (4.49 RPG / 5.01 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 6-3 TARGET: TB 6 - 3 HOU (TB) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	6	10
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	3	7

TB Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.7

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff29.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff-6.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TB Season Quality

Record51-33

Win%0.607

Run Diff37

RD/Game0.440

HOU Season Quality

Record43-46

Win%0.483

Run Diff-46

RD/Game-0.517

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.1433; margin adjustment: -0.4802; applied: True

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	81	307	100	0.326	12	53	0.410	5	4	3	1	2	0	0	0.750	0.283	0.362	0.411	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	83	301	88	0.292	13	58	0.397	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.306	0.402	0.471	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	84	319	92	0.288	24	54	0.378	5	5	1	1	3	0	1	0.200	0.292	0.372	0.621	OK
Cedric Mullins	CF	72	249	54	0.217	10	29	0.294	5	5	1	1	0	0	2	0.200	0.269	0.322	0.498	OK
Jonny DeLuca	RF	44	144	38	0.264	4	23	0.303	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.249	0.297	0.424	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	LF	22	69	13	0.188	3	8	0.273	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.231	0.304	0.364	OK
Ben Williamson	2B	58	178	42	0.236	2	20	0.310	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.228	0.304	0.368	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	63	198	46	0.232	0	20	0.333	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.333	0.261	0.356	0.377	OK
Nick Fortes	C	62	189	48	0.254	1	17	0.297	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.254	0.274	0.337	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	10	6	6	3	9	0.278

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jose Altuve	2B	65	249	58	0.233	8	22	0.307	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.228	0.294	0.331	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	86	309	100	0.324	26	60	0.437	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.293	0.404	0.525	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	81	292	71	0.243	11	45	0.341	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.252	0.320	0.405	OK
Christian Walker	1B	86	322	77	0.239	19	56	0.311	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.244	0.306	0.435	OK
Cam Smith	RF	85	292	65	0.223	11	32	0.297	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.241	0.297	0.484	OK
Taylor Trammell	LF	36	98	26	0.265	3	11	0.327	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.163	0.229	0.325	OK
Yainer Diaz	C	35	138	33	0.239	3	16	0.267	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.230	0.256	0.346	OK
Jake Meyers	CF	42	133	27	0.203	3	11	0.262	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.196	0.252	0.305	OK
Nick Allen	SS	30	73	18	0.247	1	6	0.291	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.144	0.190	0.213	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	3	3	3	6	0.206

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nick Martinez	Starter	16	92.8	2.72	1.175	5.6	58	6.0	4	2	2	3	6	100	6.0	6	2
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	35	32.4	1.94	0.864	10.0	36	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	37	33.5	2.96	1.075	8.1	30	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	27	21.9	4.52	1.416	12.7	31	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Spencer Arrighetti	Starter	13	71.3	4.04	1.304	9.5	75	5.1	7	4	4	1	4	95	5.1	4	4
Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	13	13.0	0.69	0.538	14.5	21	1.0	3	2	2	2	2	30	1.0	2	2
Bryan King	Middle Reliever	35	32.1	2.52	1.371	7.9	28	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	31	26.2	6.53	1.794	12.7	37	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.0	2	0
Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	41	34.7	2.85	1.066	9.9	38	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	15	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

TB wins 6-3

Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners

TOR 41-46 (4.07 RPG / 4.4 RA)

4 - 3

SEA 45-43 (4.06 RPG / 3.9 RA)

WINNER: TOR wins 4-3 TARGET: TOR 4 - 3 SEA (TOR) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	6
SEA	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	7

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-2.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff2.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

TOR Season Quality

Record41-46

Win%0.471

Run Diff-29

RD/Game-0.333

SEA Season Quality

Record44-43

Win%0.506

Run Diff13

RD/Game0.149

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.5345; margin adjustment: 0.2245; applied: True

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Nathan Lukes	RF	52	167	50	0.299	4	17	0.348	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.273	0.312	0.411	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	81	303	81	0.267	4	34	0.342	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.240	0.305	0.324	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	83	304	73	0.240	19	54	0.323	4	4	2	1	4	0	1	0.500	0.244	0.311	0.451	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	68	248	64	0.258	7	23	0.325	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.238	0.298	0.400	OK
Alejandro Kirk	C	19	66	14	0.212	2	7	0.274	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.235	0.296	0.369	OK
Yohendrick Pinango	LF	46	142	38	0.268	5	19	0.307	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.233	0.274	0.395	OK
Ernie Clement	2B	84	321	96	0.299	7	29	0.322	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.280	0.313	0.406	OK
Sean Keys	DH	3	12	2	0.167	1	3	0.167	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.215	0.224	0.341	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	81	266	63	0.237	7	34	0.282	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.247	0.282	0.363	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	6	4	4	3	7	0.182

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
J.P. Crawford	3B	70	252	54	0.214	10	25	0.328	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.220	0.300	0.321	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	80	292	83	0.284	8	37	0.375	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.267	0.329	0.431	OK
Dominic Canzone	DH	74	197	53	0.269	13	34	0.339	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.254	0.323	0.497	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	56	209	34	0.163	8	24	0.269	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.197	0.306	0.314	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	81	319	81	0.254	8	34	0.317	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.256	0.314	0.351	OK
Luke Raley	RF	72	209	49	0.234	14	35	0.298	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.237	0.289	0.404	OK
Cole Young	2B	88	317	82	0.259	9	41	0.320	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.283	0.330	0.464	OK
Victor Robles	CF	24	73	17	0.233	0	3	0.263	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.207	0.242	0.276	OK
Colt Emerson	SS	38	122	26	0.213	7	19	0.289	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.226	0.290	0.385	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	7	3	3	3	11	0.206

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Dylan Cease	Starter	15	81.0	3.11	1.272	14.2	128	5.2	4	1	1	3	8	103	5.2	8	1
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	41	42.5	1.06	1.035	13.6	64	1.0	1	2	2	0	2	17	1.0	2	2
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	41	36.4	1.98	1.346	4.9	20	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	40	33.7	5.07	1.632	16.0	60	1.1	2	0	0	0	1	23	1.1	1	0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Luis Castillo	Starter	16	74.1	5.10	1.404	8.9	73	5.1	5	4	4	2	4	98	5.1	4	4
Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	33	29.7	4.24	1.347	14.2	47	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0
José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	39	31.8	2.83	1.478	8.5	30	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	41	31.8	2.55	1.541	10.2	36	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	21	1.1	2	0

Game Summary

TOR wins 4-3

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds

BAL Recent Form

CIN Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

CIN Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels

BOS Recent Form

LAA Recent Form

BOS Season Quality

LAA Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

CHW Recent Form

CLE Recent Form

CHW Season Quality

CLE Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Miami Marlins @ Oakland Athletics

MIA Recent Form

OAK Recent Form

MIA Season Quality

OAK Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

MIL Recent Form

ARI Recent Form

MIL Season Quality

ARI Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees

MIN Recent Form

NYY Recent Form

MIN Season Quality

NYY Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

NYM Recent Form

ATL Recent Form

NYM Season Quality

ATL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals