MLB Predictions — July 1, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
CHW @ BAL	4 - 3	4 - 3	CHW	CHW	CHW wins 4-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CIN @ MIL	3 - 4	3 - 4	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 4-3	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
DET @ NYY	2 - 4	2 - 4	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 4-2	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ OAK	5 - 3	5 - 3	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 5-3	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIA @ COL	7 - 1	7 - 1	MIA	MIA	MIA wins 7-1	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIN @ HOU	4 - 2	4 - 2	MIN	MIN	MIN wins 4-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ TOR	5 - 2	5 - 2	NYM	NYM	NYM wins 5-2	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ PHI	4 - 5	4 - 5	PHI	PHI	PHI wins 5-4	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ CHC	3 - 4	3 - 4	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 4-3	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SF @ ARI	3 - 4	3 - 4	ARI	ARI	ARI wins 4-3	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
STL @ ATL	3 - 5	3 - 5	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 5-3	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ KC	5 - 1	5 - 1	TB	TB	TB wins 5-1	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TEX @ CLE	3 - 2	3 - 2	TEX	TEX	TEX wins 3-2	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
WAS @ BOS	2 - 3	2 - 3	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 3-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

CHW 45-40 (4.82 RPG / 4.53 RA)

4 - 3

BAL 40-48 (4.58 RPG / 4.95 RA)

WINNER: CHW wins 4-3 TARGET: CHW 4 - 3 BAL (CHW) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	7
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	3	7

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed2.0

Run Diff16.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff0.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

CHW Season Quality

Record45-39

Win%0.536

Run Diff30

RD/Game0.357

BAL Season Quality

Record39-48

Win%0.448

Run Diff-38

RD/Game-0.437

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9251; margin adjustment: -0.3885; applied: True

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Tristan Peters	CF	68	194	56	0.289	3	24	0.344	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.177	0.236	0.336	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	74	271	59	0.218	20	45	0.312	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.210	0.279	0.447	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	74	281	76	0.270	6	25	0.334	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.243	0.298	0.351	OK
Jacob Gonzalez	SS	17	48	8	0.167	1	5	0.273	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.201	0.267	0.282	OK
Drew Romo	C	27	90	13	0.144	5	11	0.228	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.107	0.182	0.219	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	75	275	65	0.236	16	44	0.350	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.226	0.318	0.386	OK
Braden Montgomery	OF	12	42	11	0.262	1	5	0.311	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.246	0.299	0.434	OK
Sam Antonacci	SS	58	199	58	0.291	4	22	0.391	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.283	0.343	0.471	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	69	214	50	0.234	9	37	0.292	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.219	0.278	0.451	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	7	4	4	4	5	0.206

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Gunnar Henderson	SS	84	349	79	0.226	15	38	0.296	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.226	0.281	0.367	OK
Adley Rutschman	C	55	204	52	0.255	8	42	0.323	4	4	1	1	2	0	3	0.250	0.216	0.283	0.365	OK
Taylor Ward	LF	84	319	80	0.251	5	21	0.379	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.225	0.337	0.338	OK
Pete Alonso	DH	85	319	81	0.254	19	59	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.236	0.330	0.439	OK
Coby Mayo	1B	63	206	40	0.194	10	31	0.264	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.209	0.276	0.369	OK
Tyler O'Neill	RF	48	134	25	0.187	2	8	0.288	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.220	0.310	0.336	OK
Leody Taveras	CF	70	228	56	0.246	2	30	0.316	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.137	0.213	0.243	OK
Jackson Holliday	2B	34	99	20	0.202	5	14	0.277	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.219	0.293	0.402	OK
Blaze Alexander	3B	61	184	56	0.304	3	25	0.358	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.243	0.297	0.370	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	3	3	3	6	0.206

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Davis Martin	Starter	14	79.8	3.38	1.216	9.4	83	6.0	2	0	0	3	4	98	6.0	4	0
Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	2	1.1	16.36	3.636	0.0	0	1.0	4	3	3	0	1	25	1.0	1	3
Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	1.48	1.311	11.8	8	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	24	20.9	1.72	1.483	9.9	23	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kyle Bradish	Starter	17	91.6	3.83	1.474	9.4	96	5.1	4	3	3	1	5	94	5.1	5	3
Ryan Helsley	Middle Reliever	17	14.4	4.38	1.528	13.1	21	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	36	21.4	2.94	1.075	11.4	27	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	39	31.7	2.84	0.946	11.1	39	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	24	17.2	6.28	1.744	11.0	21	0.2	0	0	0	3	0	11	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

CHW wins 4-3

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers

CIN 39-45 (4.23 RPG / 4.92 RA)

3 - 4

MIL 52-31 (5.18 RPG / 3.65 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 4-3 TARGET: CIN 3 - 4 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	3	6
MIL	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	1	x	4	8

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-2.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff14.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CIN Season Quality

Record39-45

Win%0.464

Run Diff-58

RD/Game-0.690

MIL Season Quality

Record52-31

Win%0.627

Run Diff127

RD/Game1.530

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.4639; margin adjustment: 1.0348; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Elly De La Cruz	SS	64	255	70	0.275	13	40	0.344	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.226	0.292	0.412	OK
Sal Stewart	3B	83	315	82	0.260	16	59	0.346	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.251	0.321	0.464	OK
Spencer Steer	1B	78	279	67	0.240	13	34	0.314	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.220	0.276	0.383	OK
Eugenio Suárez	DH	55	198	41	0.207	8	29	0.275	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.204	0.268	0.364	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	63	200	45	0.225	6	24	0.314	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.251	0.338	0.386	OK
Noelvi Marte	RF	30	96	19	0.198	4	6	0.252	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.203	0.258	0.355	OK
Ivan Johnson	LF	1	1	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.107	0.121	0.167
Matt McLain	CF	73	257	51	0.198	8	25	0.299	4	4	1	1	1	0	3	0.250	0.169	0.262	0.281	OK
Edwin Arroyo	2B	21	68	18	0.265	0	4	0.320	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.228	0.260	0.314	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	6	3	3	3	8	0.182

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jackson Chourio	LF	49	210	62	0.295	12	33	0.349	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.271	0.324	0.497	OK
Brice Turang	2B	78	301	79	0.262	12	48	0.362	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.252	0.336	0.428	OK
William Contreras	DH	78	303	90	0.297	9	50	0.360	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.281	0.343	0.449	OK
Jake Bauers	RF	72	247	68	0.275	15	50	0.376	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.277	0.369	0.505	OK
Andrew Vaughn	1B	42	124	42	0.339	2	24	0.415	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.305	0.382	0.513	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	68	219	54	0.247	5	32	0.339	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.258	0.341	0.437	OK
Gary Sánchez	C	47	128	28	0.219	8	22	0.353	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.239	0.362	0.443	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	13	38	8	0.211	0	2	0.295	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.224	0.311	0.314	OK
Joey Ortiz	3B	59	173	36	0.208	2	19	0.282	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.220	0.287	0.327	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	8	4	4	4	6	0.250

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andrew Abbott	Starter	17	87.9	3.99	1.445	7.2	70	5.0	6	3	3	2	3	98	5.0	3	3
Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	23	20.3	3.10	1.133	9.3	21	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	41	33.6	3.21	1.607	9.4	35	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	21	1.0	0	0
Pierce Johnson	Middle Reliever	27	18.4	5.87	1.739	12.2	25	0.2	2	1	1	0	2	18	0.2	2	1

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shane Drohan	Starter	16	49.9	3.25	1.283	9.4	52	6.0	5	1	1	1	5	95	6.0	5	1
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	32	32.0	2.25	0.906	12.1	43	1.0	1	2	2	2	1	9	1.0	1	2
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	39	45.1	3.59	1.508	13.6	68	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Grant Anderson	Middle Reliever	32	27.7	4.22	1.480	8.4	26	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	9	7.5	7.20	2.133	9.6	8	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	19	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

MIL wins 4-3

Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees

DET 38-49 (4.21 RPG / 4.08 RA)

2 - 4

NYY 48-38 (4.85 RPG / 3.84 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 4-2 TARGET: DET 2 - 4 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	6
NYY	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	4	5

DET Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.9

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff13.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs2.3

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff-25.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

DET Season Quality

Record37-49

Win%0.430

Run Diff7

RD/Game0.081

NYY Season Quality

Record48-37

Win%0.565

Run Diff91

RD/Game1.071

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.1909; margin adjustment: 0.5002; applied: True

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kevin McGonigle	SS	82	306	87	0.284	6	30	0.397	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.259	0.369	0.380	OK
Dillon Dingler	DH	78	291	78	0.268	19	59	0.329	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.242	0.286	0.444	OK
Kerry Carpenter	RF	63	179	42	0.235	13	36	0.307	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.252	0.307	0.517	OK
Riley Greene	LF	84	305	89	0.292	11	37	0.382	4	3	1	1	1	1	2	0.333	0.259	0.341	0.455	OK
Colt Keith	3B	76	228	56	0.246	5	17	0.292	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0.000	0.223	0.261	0.368	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	84	284	61	0.215	14	36	0.314	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.249	0.332	0.477	OK
Zach McKinstry	2B	58	179	35	0.196	3	14	0.277	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.235	0.309	0.371	OK
James Outman	CF	12	34	7	0.206	3	8	0.289	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.116	0.190	0.253	OK
Jake Rogers	C	25	71	11	0.155	1	6	0.235	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.184	0.256	0.301	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	2	2	4	10	0.182

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ben Rice	1B	79	298	80	0.268	23	53	0.358	4	3	0	1	0	1	2	0.000	0.212	0.288	0.436	OK
Jasson Domínguez	RF	24	90	20	0.222	3	9	0.263	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.220	0.257	0.373	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	83	302	78	0.258	11	49	0.357	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.212	0.314	0.348	OK
Amed Rosario	DH	45	135	34	0.252	8	25	0.295	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.252	0.304	0.452	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	80	284	63	0.222	12	33	0.299	4	3	2	1	2	1	1	0.667	0.203	0.275	0.342	OK
Anthony Volpe	SS	36	118	29	0.246	1	13	0.346	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.223	0.317	0.333	OK
Austin Wells	C	56	168	26	0.155	4	10	0.255	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.178	0.262	0.256	OK
José Caballero	CF	72	241	59	0.245	8	28	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.197	0.248	0.308	OK
Oswaldo Cabrera	3B	2	6	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	3	1	2	0	0	0.750	0.207	0.218	0.300
TEAM TOTALS									36	31	5	4	4	4	7	0.161

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Troy Melton	Starter	6	37.2	2.42	0.860	6.0	25	6.1	2	2	2	3	7	110	6.1	7	2
Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	22	18.7	4.81	1.230	11.1	23	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0
Will Vest	Middle Reliever	27	23.4	6.92	1.624	10.4	27	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	0.0	0	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	36	34.9	1.81	1.547	7.7	30	0.2	2	2	2	1	0	18	0.2	0	2

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Will Warren	Starter	16	80.5	3.91	1.416	9.4	84	5.2	2	1	1	1	7	98	5.2	7	1
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	39	25.2	3.57	1.786	16.4	46	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	20	1.0	2	0
Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	41	31.6	1.99	1.551	12.0	42	1.1	2	1	1	2	1	31	1.1	1	1
Tim Hill	Middle Reliever	37	25.5	3.88	1.137	5.3	15	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-2

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Oakland Athletics

LAD 56-30 (5.36 RPG / 3.47 RA)

5 - 3

OAK 40-46 (4.58 RPG / 5.34 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 5-3 TARGET: LAD 5 - 3 OAK (LAD) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	1	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	5	9
OAK	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	5

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs5.8

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff19.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed5.5

Run Diff-18.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

LAD Season Quality

Record55-30

Win%0.647

Run Diff157

RD/Game1.847

OAK Season Quality

Record40-45

Win%0.471

Run Diff-59

RD/Game-0.694

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.8059; margin adjustment: -1.1785; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	78	297	88	0.296	18	50	0.412	5	5	2	1	2	0	1	0.400	0.296	0.398	0.523	OK
Andy Pages	CF	85	332	90	0.271	16	60	0.329	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.282	0.339	0.470	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	83	314	92	0.293	13	46	0.382	5	4	3	1	2	1	0	0.750	0.324	0.405	0.510	OK
Max Muncy	3B	78	260	69	0.265	17	37	0.361	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.280	0.360	0.500	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	79	293	70	0.239	7	44	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.262	0.349	0.414	OK
Tommy Edman	LF	10	38	15	0.395	1	8	0.452	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.304	0.371	0.512	OK
Alex Freeland	2B	61	173	40	0.231	3	17	0.315	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.248	0.334	0.355	OK
Miguel Rojas	SS	51	122	34	0.279	3	15	0.313	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.293	0.335	0.511	OK
Chuckie Robinson	C	7	19	2	0.105	0	1	0.105	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.228	0.239	0.317	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	9	5	5	4	6	0.250

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shea Langeliers	DH	78	323	85	0.263	19	43	0.329	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.221	0.279	0.362	OK
Nick Kurtz	1B	85	308	85	0.276	19	64	0.421	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.229	0.359	0.398	OK
Colby Thomas	LF	35	80	19	0.238	4	10	0.274	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.234	0.268	0.420	OK
Jonah Heim	C	30	92	22	0.239	6	13	0.290	4	3	2	1	3	1	0	0.667	0.218	0.278	0.414	OK
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer	3B	1	4	3	0.750	0	1	0.750	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.252	0.260	0.544	MODERATE
Lawrence Butler	RF	72	210	42	0.200	5	21	0.285	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.222	0.314	0.327	OK
Henry Bolte	CF	41	143	41	0.287	2	13	0.362	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.214	0.275	0.301	OK
Jeff McNeil	2B	77	245	57	0.233	3	22	0.299	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.220	0.272	0.296	OK
Alika Williams	SS	22	66	20	0.303	1	7	0.324	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.148	0.174	0.265	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	5	3	3	5	10	0.156

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Starter	15	96.5	2.70	0.902	8.4	90	7.0	3	0	0	3	7	114	7.0	7	0
Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	36	32.0	2.25	0.750	11.8	42	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	37	20.9	3.44	1.435	16.8	39	0.2	2	3	3	1	2	18	0.2	2	3
Kyle Hurt	Middle Reliever	29	26.5	3.74	1.283	12.2	36	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	16	0.1	1	0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
J.T. Ginn	Starter	18	86.1	3.24	1.254	8.2	78	5.2	6	3	3	2	5	97	5.2	5	3
Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	21	19.5	6.46	1.282	12.5	27	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	41	29.5	4.58	2.034	14.3	47	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	23	1.0	0	1
Justin Sterner	Middle Reliever	40	33.3	4.59	1.321	10.8	40	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Mason Barnett	Middle Reliever	9	14.4	1.25	1.042	11.9	19	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	10	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 5-3

Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies

MIA 46-40 (4.45 RPG / 4.17 RA)

7 - 1

COL 33-53 (4.62 RPG / 5.81 RA)

WINNER: MIA wins 7-1 TARGET: MIA 7 - 1 COL (MIA) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIA	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	0	7	10
COL	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	6

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs5.1

Avg Allowed2.7

Run Diff24.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak

COL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed5.7

Run Diff-13.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

MIA Season Quality

Record45-40

Win%0.529

Run Diff13

RD/Game0.153

COL Season Quality

Record33-52

Win%0.388

Run Diff-92

RD/Game-1.082

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.4471; margin adjustment: -0.6078; applied: True

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Otto Lopez	SS	84	333	111	0.333	7	37	0.366	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.295	0.326	0.502	OK
Esteury Ruiz	CF	37	82	21	0.256	4	9	0.311	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.232	0.279	0.442	OK
Liam Hicks	1B	74	254	71	0.280	13	53	0.358	5	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.287	0.352	0.425	OK
Heriberto Hernández	LF	54	169	37	0.219	8	29	0.285	5	5	1	1	0	0	2	0.200	0.216	0.287	0.383	OK
Javier Sanoja	2B	59	193	53	0.275	3	32	0.305	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.307	0.334	0.479	OK
Kyle Stowers	RF	62	230	54	0.235	8	34	0.324	5	4	1	1	0	1	2	0.250	0.267	0.339	0.465	OK
Leo Jiménez	3B	30	86	19	0.221	0	4	0.299	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.169	0.236	0.259	OK
Brian Navarreto	C	3	3	0	0.000	0	0	0.250	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.195	0.370	0.287
Owen Caissie	DH	73	205	49	0.239	10	46	0.296	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.277	0.332	0.496	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	36	10	7	7	5	8	0.278

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	CF	65	234	70	0.299	6	36	0.333	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.276	0.307	0.493	OK
Mickey Moniak	DH	50	170	44	0.259	13	32	0.310	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.204	0.244	0.422	OK
Hunter Goodman	C	80	305	74	0.243	26	48	0.307	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.230	0.279	0.554	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	80	293	87	0.297	12	44	0.375	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.291	0.367	0.460	OK
Willi Castro	2B	71	256	70	0.273	6	33	0.344	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.243	0.303	0.372	OK
Tyler Freeman	RF	54	187	51	0.273	3	22	0.352	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.166	0.196	0.240	OK
Troy Johnston	LF	75	249	78	0.313	3	35	0.375	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.270	0.340	0.391	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	78	229	60	0.262	5	25	0.360	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.266	0.365	0.477	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	77	276	58	0.210	6	27	0.255	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.196	0.239	0.322	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	1	1	4	9	0.182

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Max Meyer	Starter	17	95.6	2.64	1.130	10.1	107	6.0	5	1	1	2	8	108	6.0	8	1
Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	27	23.6	7.25	1.441	12.6	33	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	21	1.0	1	0
Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	35	30.0	3.90	1.700	10.5	35	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
John King	Middle Reliever	37	29.0	2.48	0.897	8.7	28	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kyle Freeland	Starter	14	69.2	7.80	1.676	7.9	61	4.2	9	7	7	3	5	98	4.2	5	7
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	25	39.1	3.45	1.304	8.3	36	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	4	1.1	0	0
Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	19	17.9	4.53	1.397	11.6	23	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Brennan Bernardino	Middle Reliever	39	25.2	4.64	1.746	8.9	25	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	22	22.0	6.14	1.909	7.0	17	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18	1.0	1	0
Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	34	31.3	7.48	1.981	10.9	38	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	18	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

MIA wins 7-1

Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros

MIN 41-46 (4.84 RPG / 5.2 RA)

4 - 2

HOU 43-45 (4.51 RPG / 4.98 RA)

WINNER: MIN wins 4-2 TARGET: MIN 4 - 2 HOU (MIN) Confidence: 52.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	8
HOU	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	5

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.9

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff1.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff1.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

MIN Season Quality

Record41-45

Win%0.477

Run Diff-29

RD/Game-0.337

HOU Season Quality

Record42-45

Win%0.483

Run Diff-43

RD/Game-0.494

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.148; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trevor Larnach	LF	68	222	63	0.284	5	26	0.369	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.201	0.282	0.331	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	80	303	76	0.251	14	46	0.303	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.272	0.314	0.451	OK
Kody Clemens	2B	72	261	63	0.241	13	35	0.305	5	5	2	1	3	0	3	0.400	0.161	0.217	0.340	OK
Josh Bell	DH	84	304	74	0.243	10	54	0.299	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.238	0.287	0.426	OK
Royce Lewis	1B	53	190	41	0.216	8	23	0.291	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.242	0.305	0.408	OK
Victor Caratini	C	62	198	47	0.237	7	33	0.332	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.259	0.340	0.428	OK
Ryan Kreidler	CF	38	101	29	0.287	5	23	0.345	4	4	2	1	1	0	2	0.500	0.278	0.331	0.486	OK
Tristan Gray	SS	53	151	36	0.238	4	28	0.280	4	2	1	1	0	2	0	0.500	0.225	0.268	0.329	OK
Luke Keaschall	RF	80	278	68	0.245	2	24	0.326	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.214	0.294	0.292	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	35	8	4	4	4	12	0.229

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jose Altuve	2B	64	245	57	0.233	8	22	0.305	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.225	0.288	0.337	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	85	305	97	0.318	26	60	0.432	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.264	0.378	0.507	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	80	288	70	0.243	11	45	0.340	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.260	0.329	0.419	OK
Christian Walker	1B	85	320	77	0.241	19	56	0.313	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.244	0.307	0.439	OK
Cam Smith	RF	84	288	64	0.222	11	32	0.297	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.235	0.293	0.482	OK
Taylor Trammell	CF	35	95	26	0.274	3	11	0.330	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.166	0.227	0.337	OK
Yainer Diaz	C	34	134	33	0.246	3	16	0.275	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.243	0.271	0.363	OK
Joey Loperfido	LF	35	99	21	0.212	1	11	0.295	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.191	0.267	0.341	OK
Raynel Delgado	SS	9	28	8	0.286	1	4	0.310	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.201	0.234	0.336	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	5	2	2	1	8	0.156

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Taj Bradley	Starter	15	81.8	4.07	1.308	10.0	91	5.2	4	1	1	0	6	95	5.2	6	1
Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	25	18.5	1.95	1.081	10.7	22	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	29	32.4	4.72	1.667	11.1	40	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	24	1.1	0	0
Travis Adams	Middle Reliever	15	19.8	7.73	1.667	13.2	29	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	4	1.0	0	1

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tatsuya Imai	Starter	11	44.9	5.61	1.381	11.6	58	4.2	6	2	2	2	6	97	4.2	6	2
Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	13	13.0	0.69	0.538	14.5	21	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
Bryan King	Middle Reliever	35	32.1	2.52	1.371	7.9	28	1.0	1	2	2	0	0	16	1.0	0	2
Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	36	32.3	5.57	1.393	9.8	35	1.1	1	0	0	1	2	32	1.1	2	0
Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	41	34.7	2.85	1.066	9.9	38	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	17	1.0	3	0

Game Summary

MIN wins 4-2

New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays

NYM 36-51 (3.98 RPG / 4.54 RA)

5 - 2

TOR 41-46 (4.07 RPG / 4.4 RA)

WINNER: NYM wins 5-2 TARGET: NYM 5 - 2 TOR (NYM) Confidence: 52.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	9
TOR	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	3

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs3.1

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff-18.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff-6.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

NYM Season Quality

Record36-50

Win%0.419

Run Diff-43

RD/Game-0.500

TOR Season Quality

Record40-46

Win%0.465

Run Diff-35

RD/Game-0.407

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1628; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carson Benge	RF	81	311	80	0.257	9	32	0.317	5	5	2	1	2	0	2	0.400	0.243	0.289	0.357	OK
Juan Soto	DH	66	235	71	0.302	17	39	0.411	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.267	0.391	0.476	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	85	343	86	0.251	10	46	0.294	5	4	3	1	1	0	1	0.750	0.232	0.273	0.360	OK
Francisco Lindor	SS	29	113	24	0.212	3	8	0.294	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.216	0.282	0.387	OK
A.J. Ewing	CF	46	153	42	0.275	4	19	0.360	5	2	1	1	2	2	0	0.500	0.276	0.356	0.440	OK
Francisco Alvarez	C	54	179	44	0.246	9	19	0.310	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.231	0.284	0.443	OK
Jared Young	1B	38	111	26	0.234	6	13	0.303	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.142	0.206	0.270	OK
Brett Baty	2B	76	244	52	0.213	3	27	0.291	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.181	0.272	0.276	OK
Tyrone Taylor	LF	38	96	19	0.198	2	13	0.222	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.206	0.237	0.326	OK
TEAM TOTALS									43	35	9	5	5	6	7	0.257

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Nathan Lukes	RF	51	162	48	0.296	4	17	0.347	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.262	0.304	0.413	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	80	299	80	0.268	4	34	0.341	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.229	0.292	0.308	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	82	301	71	0.236	19	53	0.318	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.232	0.296	0.465	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	67	244	63	0.258	7	22	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.242	0.303	0.408	OK
Alejandro Kirk	C	18	64	12	0.188	2	7	0.232	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.210	0.251	0.340	OK
Yohendrick Pinango	LF	45	139	38	0.273	5	19	0.313	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.228	0.270	0.393	OK
Ernie Clement	2B	83	317	94	0.297	7	28	0.320	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.272	0.306	0.389	OK
Sean Keys	DH	2	8	1	0.125	0	0	0.125	3	3	1	1	2	0	1	0.333	0.205	0.214	0.290	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	80	263	63	0.240	7	34	0.283	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.252	0.280	0.373	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	30	3	2	2	1	9	0.100

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Freddy Peralta	Starter	17	88.3	4.69	1.416	9.0	88	5.1	3	2	2	0	4	96	5.1	4	2
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	30	26.7	3.71	1.423	13.8	41	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	15	1.2	2	0
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	34	33.9	2.12	0.855	10.4	39	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	34	26.1	2.76	1.494	11.7	34	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	1.0	2	0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Braydon Fisher	Starter	41	37.7	4.06	1.326	10.0	42	5.0	5	4	4	3	2	102	5.0	2	4
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	41	42.5	1.06	1.035	13.6	64	1.1	2	0	0	1	2	36	1.1	2	0
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	41	36.4	1.98	1.346	4.9	20	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	20	1.0	1	1
Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	40	33.7	5.07	1.632	16.0	60	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever	44	24.7	5.10	1.862	14.6	40	0.2	1	0	0	1	2	15	0.2	2	0

Game Summary

NYM wins 5-2

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies

PIT 43-43 (5.12 RPG / 4.84 RA)

4 - 5

PHI 48-38 (4.45 RPG / 4.38 RA)

WINNER: PHI wins 5-4 TARGET: PIT 4 - 5 PHI (PHI) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	11
PHI	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	5	6

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.4

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff11.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.3

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff12.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

PIT Season Quality

Record43-43

Win%0.500

Run Diff24

RD/Game0.279

PHI Season Quality

Record48-38

Win%0.558

Run Diff6

RD/Game0.070

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1221; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Konnor Griffin	SS	54	207	56	0.271	5	23	0.326	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.256	0.298	0.418	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	79	309	74	0.239	20	57	0.313	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.222	0.287	0.455	OK
Bryan Reynolds	DH	86	309	87	0.282	11	52	0.398	5	4	2	0	0	1	1	0.500	0.244	0.354	0.403	OK
Esmerlyn Valdez	RF	17	48	15	0.312	6	12	0.389	5	5	1	1	2	0	2	0.200	0.319	0.392	0.690	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	1B	69	264	76	0.288	13	51	0.340	5	4	2	0	0	1	1	0.500	0.268	0.317	0.456	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	79	296	87	0.294	3	35	0.348	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.264	0.322	0.351	OK
Jake Mangum	CF	57	189	56	0.296	1	14	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.252	0.289	0.333	OK
Tyler Callihan	LF	21	57	14	0.246	3	13	0.343	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.137	0.233	0.318	OK
Henry Davis	C	46	143	21	0.147	6	19	0.236	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.180	0.243	0.343	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	37	11	4	4	3	8	0.297

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trea Turner	SS	81	342	82	0.240	9	28	0.285	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.253	0.293	0.414	OK
Kyle Schwarber	DH	80	307	78	0.254	29	54	0.363	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.256	0.351	0.517	OK
Bryce Harper	1B	84	298	82	0.275	20	54	0.376	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.289	0.384	0.545	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	80	296	94	0.318	14	45	0.349	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.278	0.307	0.510	OK
Alec Bohm	3B	80	297	66	0.222	9	42	0.278	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.215	0.265	0.318	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	79	274	66	0.241	7	39	0.303	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.255	0.317	0.387	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	58	201	41	0.204	5	25	0.283	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.219	0.275	0.338	OK
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	RF	12	38	5	0.132	1	3	0.154	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.198	0.225	0.281	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	77	238	59	0.248	2	18	0.301	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.270	0.313	0.377	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	6	5	5	3	6	0.194

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Paul Skenes	Starter	17	91.6	3.14	0.983	11.2	114	6.0	3	1	1	2	6	100	6.0	6	1
Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	35	32.0	4.50	1.406	8.4	30	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	0.0	0	0
Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	32	26.6	5.08	1.654	15.6	46	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	18	1.0	0	1
Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	36	41.9	4.08	1.456	11.0	51	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	6	1.0	0	3

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zack Wheeler	Starter	12	74.4	2.06	0.874	9.0	74	6.1	7	1	1	0	6	113	6.1	6	1
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	29	28.2	0.96	0.851	14.0	44	1.2	1	1	1	2	1	33	1.2	1	1
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	35	30.1	2.99	1.329	11.4	38	1.0	3	2	2	1	1	26	1.0	1	2

Game Summary

PHI wins 5-4

San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs

SD 43-42 (3.92 RPG / 4.34 RA)

3 - 4

CHC 49-38 (5.15 RPG / 4.43 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 4-3 TARGET: SD 3 - 4 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	8
CHC	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	x	4	5

SD Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-7.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs6.2

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff22.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SD Season Quality

Record43-40

Win%0.518

Run Diff-14

RD/Game-0.169

CHC Season Quality

Record47-38

Win%0.553

Run Diff41

RD/Game0.482

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7033; margin adjustment: 0.2954; applied: True

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	82	324	92	0.284	5	32	0.346	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.259	0.310	0.426	OK
Gavin Sheets	LF	77	241	56	0.232	14	38	0.317	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.249	0.317	0.486	OK
Manny Machado	DH	82	301	57	0.189	16	46	0.274	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.223	0.307	0.461	OK
Ty France	1B	55	172	46	0.267	10	29	0.324	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.283	0.331	0.556	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	80	315	67	0.213	8	31	0.271	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.219	0.266	0.331	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	80	278	65	0.234	8	32	0.324	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.245	0.332	0.334	OK
Jake Cronenworth	2B	33	101	14	0.139	1	4	0.263	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.176	0.265	0.244	OK
Rodolfo Durán	C	24	64	9	0.141	3	8	0.236	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.170	0.240	0.320	OK
Sung-Mun Song	3B	23	56	12	0.214	0	8	0.323	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.194	0.301	0.269	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	35	8	3	3	1	6	0.229

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	85	320	91	0.284	18	46	0.374	4	4	1	1	2	0	3	0.250	0.253	0.350	0.464	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	83	325	80	0.246	7	30	0.346	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.235	0.332	0.356	OK
Michael Busch	1B	84	305	72	0.236	10	46	0.372	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.214	0.345	0.388	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	70	261	70	0.268	12	39	0.351	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.277	0.350	0.464	OK
Ian Happ	LF	80	303	68	0.224	17	41	0.333	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.216	0.314	0.410	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	83	336	82	0.244	4	36	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.256	0.317	0.355	OK
Michael Conforto	DH	52	117	27	0.231	5	16	0.313	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.158	0.242	0.331	OK
Miguel Amaya	C	38	114	25	0.219	3	10	0.326	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.204	0.279	0.329	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	80	272	56	0.206	13	49	0.299	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.232	0.311	0.466	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	29	5	4	4	4	9	0.172

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Walker Buehler	Starter	16	75.2	3.95	1.356	8.4	70	5.0	2	2	2	4	8	97	5.0	8	2
Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	33	32.1	0.84	0.903	18.5	66	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	39	36.8	3.91	1.168	12.5	51	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	27	1.0	0	2
Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	36	30.0	2.70	1.267	6.6	22	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Colin Rea	Starter	17	80.6	5.02	1.476	7.0	63	5.0	5	2	2	1	4	86	5.0	4	2
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	37	32.6	3.87	1.503	12.4	45	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	26	18.9	4.76	1.481	13.8	29	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	16	0.2	0	1
Ryan Rolison	Middle Reliever	27	27.1	2.32	1.292	10.3	31	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	19	22.6	2.79	1.106	4.4	11	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	5	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

CHC wins 4-3

San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks

SF 36-50 (4.07 RPG / 4.67 RA)

3 - 4

ARI 43-42 (4.27 RPG / 4.55 RA)

WINNER: ARI wins 4-3 TARGET: SF 3 - 4 ARI (ARI) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	3	7
ARI	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	4	9

SF Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs2.8

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff-9.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff8.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

SF Season Quality

Record36-49

Win%0.424

Run Diff-46

RD/Game-0.541

ARI Season Quality

Record42-42

Win%0.500

Run Diff-30

RD/Game-0.357

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2987; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Luis Arraez	2B	80	315	107	0.340	4	31	0.374	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.313	0.351	0.501	OK
Casey Schmitt	3B	76	301	85	0.282	16	42	0.308	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.239	0.254	0.396	OK
Bryce Eldridge	DH	44	149	42	0.282	6	17	0.376	4	4	3	1	2	0	0	0.750	0.239	0.328	0.392	OK
Rafael Devers	1B	85	324	79	0.244	15	44	0.308	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.244	0.306	0.517	OK
Heliot Ramos	RF	46	171	43	0.251	5	21	0.291	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.238	0.281	0.422	OK
Jung Hoo Lee	CF	76	287	92	0.321	5	31	0.353	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.244	0.275	0.384	OK
Victor Bericoto	LF	15	35	10	0.286	3	4	0.306	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.164	0.194	0.319	OK
Drew Cavanaugh	C	4	10	2	0.200	0	1	0.273	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.239	0.304	0.332	OK
Christian Koss	SS	7	14	1	0.071	0	0	0.071	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.116	0.129	0.226	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	34	7	3	3	0	7	0.206

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Tommy Troy	OF	23	75	18	0.240	3	5	0.321	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.244	0.317	0.425	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	75	257	61	0.237	4	27	0.354	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.223	0.346	0.332	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	73	297	78	0.263	12	46	0.315	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.275	0.328	0.461	OK
Pavin Smith	DH	17	46	8	0.174	1	5	0.264	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.239	0.316	0.352	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	51	174	48	0.276	6	25	0.358	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.279	0.356	0.461	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	73	247	59	0.239	8	32	0.315	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.231	0.291	0.343	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	75	278	79	0.284	13	42	0.372	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.279	0.357	0.544	OK
Max Kepler	LF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.245	0.310	0.402
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	LF	30	112	23	0.205	1	13	0.260	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.195	0.242	0.280	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	9	4	4	2	7	0.281

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trevor McDonald	Starter	10	48.9	5.15	1.411	8.3	45	4.2	7	3	3	1	5	95	4.2	5	3
Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	34	30.1	4.78	1.495	12.3	41	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	21	1.1	0	0
Ryan Walker	Middle Reliever	23	18.4	6.36	1.848	8.8	18	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	0.0	0	0
Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	26	17.6	4.60	1.932	14.8	29	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14	1.0	2	0
Dylan Smith	Middle Reliever	10	7.5	2.40	1.467	12.0	10	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	15	86.7	2.49	1.257	6.7	65	6.2	7	2	2	0	5	105	6.2	5	2
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1	1.0	9.00	2.000	0.0	0	0.1	0	1	1	0	1	1	0.1	1	1
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	2	2.1	0.00	0.476	8.6	2	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

ARI wins 4-3

St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves

STL 44-38 (4.48 RPG / 4.55 RA)

3 - 5

ATL 49-35 (4.7 RPG / 3.74 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 5-3 TARGET: STL 3 - 5 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	8
ATL	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	x	5	5

STL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff-13.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs2.6

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff-14.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

STL Season Quality

Record44-38

Win%0.537

Run Diff-6

RD/Game-0.073

ATL Season Quality

Record49-35

Win%0.583

Run Diff81

RD/Game0.964

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.1076; margin adjustment: 0.4652; applied: True

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	76	301	79	0.262	12	33	0.358	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.235	0.303	0.351	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	81	295	73	0.247	10	34	0.386	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.206	0.301	0.322	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	80	308	85	0.276	13	56	0.343	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.224	0.287	0.372	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	79	308	89	0.289	17	55	0.344	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.253	0.310	0.396	OK
Lars Nootbaar	LF	21	72	22	0.306	2	7	0.400	4	4	2	0	0	0	2	0.500	0.272	0.367	0.424	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	72	270	66	0.244	3	32	0.312	4	2	0	1	2	0	0	0.000	0.242	0.299	0.341	OK
Nathan Church	CF	59	198	51	0.258	6	22	0.299	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.224	0.263	0.387	OK
Blaze Jordan	3B	15	51	12	0.235	1	13	0.246	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.211	0.245	0.365	OK
Jimmy Crooks	C	18	51	8	0.157	1	7	0.246	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.190	0.255	0.295	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	8	3	3	2	5	0.242

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drake Baldwin	C	61	237	61	0.257	15	40	0.337	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.199	0.264	0.339	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	84	319	87	0.273	12	46	0.322	4	2	1	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.238	0.284	0.367	OK
Matt Olson	1B	84	324	89	0.275	20	52	0.344	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.270	0.335	0.455	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	77	280	83	0.296	14	43	0.330	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.238	0.282	0.388	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	80	297	80	0.269	8	44	0.320	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.265	0.308	0.412	OK
Dominic Smith	DH	63	179	50	0.279	6	30	0.312	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.254	0.295	0.368	OK
Austin Riley	3B	84	301	62	0.206	8	37	0.285	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.195	0.264	0.300	OK
Mike Yastrzemski	RF	72	202	45	0.223	4	18	0.302	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.201	0.273	0.318	OK
Jorge Mateo	SS	43	109	29	0.266	4	11	0.310	3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.202	0.252	0.329	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	29	5	5	5	3	6	0.172

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael McGreevy	Starter	16	88.4	3.16	1.154	5.8	57	5.2	4	3	3	2	5	91	5.2	5	3
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	35	33.7	4.01	1.217	9.1	34	1.0	0	1	1	1	0	11	1.0	0	1
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	37	31.2	4.04	1.346	8.7	30	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	38	29.3	4.91	1.638	11.1	36	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	14	0.1	1	1

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Reynaldo López	Starter	19	45.5	3.56	1.407	7.9	40	5.0	6	2	2	1	3	90	5.0	3	2
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	26	26.4	1.36	1.061	10.2	30	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	17	1.0	0	1
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	38	32.1	1.12	0.717	12.3	44	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	25	28.3	2.86	1.237	11.4	36	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Dylan Dodd	Middle Reliever	16	19.6	2.76	0.969	11.0	24	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

ATL wins 5-3

Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals

TB 49-33 (4.59 RPG / 4.22 RA)

5 - 1

KC 35-51 (4.2 RPG / 5.08 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 5-1 TARGET: TB 5 - 1 KC (TB) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	0	5	11
KC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3

TB Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.5

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff24.0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak

KC Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed7.7

Run Diff-33.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak

TB Season Quality

Record49-33

Win%0.598

Run Diff30

RD/Game0.366

KC Season Quality

Record35-51

Win%0.407

Run Diff-76

RD/Game-0.884

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.5355; margin adjustment: -0.6449; applied: True

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	79	299	100	0.334	12	53	0.416	5	5	1	1	2	0	1	0.200	0.318	0.390	0.461	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	81	293	85	0.290	13	58	0.395	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.305	0.405	0.483	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	82	310	91	0.294	23	52	0.384	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.316	0.399	0.706	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	20	61	12	0.197	3	8	0.290	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.238	0.321	0.402	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	75	291	78	0.268	0	16	0.306	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.181	0.233	0.253	OK
Cedric Mullins	CF	70	241	50	0.207	8	25	0.288	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.244	0.306	0.404	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	61	191	42	0.220	0	19	0.323	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.234	0.335	0.332	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	57	169	39	0.231	1	21	0.332	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.148	0.243	0.225	OK
Hunter Feduccia	C	41	99	22	0.222	1	7	0.291	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.127	0.197	0.203	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	38	11	5	5	3	6	0.289

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Lane Thomas	CF	66	189	41	0.217	5	22	0.323	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.211	0.296	0.322	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	79	310	91	0.294	12	35	0.364	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.278	0.346	0.526	OK
Jac Caglianone	RF	78	269	69	0.257	14	30	0.327	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.144	0.209	0.322	OK
Starling Marte	DH	35	94	25	0.266	1	7	0.330	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.258	0.320	0.373	OK
Salvador Perez	1B	79	310	63	0.203	10	30	0.244	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.194	0.219	0.301	OK
Carter Jensen	C	77	270	68	0.252	12	46	0.317	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.254	0.315	0.460	OK
Nick Loftin	3B	47	142	33	0.232	3	24	0.317	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	0.667	0.200	0.269	0.366	OK
Tyler Tolbert	LF	16	32	7	0.219	0	1	0.297	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.122	0.212	0.162	OK
Michael Massey	2B	64	196	51	0.260	7	27	0.292	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.234	0.283	0.379	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	30	3	1	1	5	4	0.100

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shane McClanahan	Starter	15	71.8	3.38	1.253	9.2	73	5.1	2	0	0	3	3	85	5.1	3	0
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	34	31.4	2.01	0.892	10.0	35	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	36	32.4	3.06	1.080	8.3	30	1.2	0	0	0	1	0	21	1.2	0	0
Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	25	20.7	4.78	1.353	13.0	30	1.0	0	1	1	1	0	17	1.0	0	1

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Seth Lugo	Starter	16	88.7	4.26	1.398	7.0	69	5.1	8	3	3	1	1	95	5.1	1	3
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	35	33.3	5.41	1.622	10.0	37	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	21	1.0	0	0
Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	33	30.8	4.68	1.656	7.3	25	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.0	2	0
Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	35	29.8	3.02	1.174	9.1	30	1.0	2	2	2	1	2	17	1.0	2	2
John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	36	28.1	3.84	1.495	8.3	26	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	16	0.2	1	0

Game Summary

TB wins 5-1

Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians

TEX 44-43 (4.07 RPG / 4.16 RA)

3 - 2

CLE 45-42 (3.97 RPG / 4.06 RA)

WINNER: TEX wins 3-2 TARGET: TEX 3 - 2 CLE (TEX) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	7
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	8

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff8.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs2.8

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-5.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

TEX Season Quality

Record44-42

Win%0.512

Run Diff-3

RD/Game-0.035

CLE Season Quality

Record44-42

Win%0.512

Run Diff-13

RD/Game-0.151

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1163; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Justin Foscue	2B	34	87	24	0.276	5	15	0.319	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.188	0.230	0.383	OK
Josh Jung	3B	80	313	93	0.297	9	32	0.357	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.269	0.318	0.427	OK
Ezequiel Duran	RF	75	259	69	0.266	6	41	0.322	4	4	1	1	3	0	2	0.250	0.177	0.234	0.284	OK
Jake Burger	1B	83	304	77	0.253	14	52	0.316	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.246	0.312	0.394	OK
Kyle Higashioka	DH	43	140	31	0.221	5	14	0.301	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.140	0.227	0.217	OK
Cameron Cauley	CF	2	7	1	0.143	0	0	0.250	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.231	0.318	0.552	OK
Alejandro Osuna	LF	51	142	36	0.254	0	14	0.346	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.252	0.310	0.317	OK
Elias Díaz	C	13	40	12	0.300	0	8	0.293	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.220	0.237	0.367	OK
Nicky Lopez	SS	29	85	29	0.341	1	7	0.371	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.191	0.219	0.234	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	3	3	3	10	0.206

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
David Fry	LF	50	113	24	0.212	4	9	0.315	5	5	3	1	1	0	0	0.600	0.213	0.313	0.356	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	67	250	68	0.272	7	37	0.338	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.275	0.334	0.408	OK
Rhys Hoskins	1B	64	195	36	0.185	7	28	0.311	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.218	0.325	0.376	OK
Kyle Manzardo	DH	75	234	54	0.231	10	29	0.318	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.224	0.296	0.394	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	82	277	75	0.271	5	34	0.339	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.248	0.300	0.356	OK
Gabriel Arias	3B	18	60	13	0.217	3	6	0.254	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.215	0.253	0.369	OK
Kahlil Watson	CF	12	38	10	0.263	1	8	0.282	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.250	0.273	0.394	OK
Austin Hedges	C	38	112	30	0.268	1	9	0.331	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.241	0.294	0.349	OK
Daniel Schneemann	2B	68	215	47	0.219	6	27	0.288	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.211	0.276	0.319	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	35	8	2	2	4	8	0.229

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
MacKenzie Gore	Starter	17	88.9	4.15	1.282	9.8	97	5.2	4	0	0	4	4	99	5.2	4	0
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	32	39.9	1.13	0.551	9.7	43	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	13	1.1	1	0
Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	31	32.3	3.07	1.115	7.5	27	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	19	1.0	2	1
Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	22	27.1	3.32	1.107	11.0	33	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	18	1.0	1	1
Robby Ahlstrom	Middle Reliever	12	9.6	4.69	1.562	5.6	6	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	14	0.0	0	0

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Joey Cantillo	Starter	17	83.9	3.97	1.383	9.1	85	5.1	4	2	2	1	6	99	5.1	6	2
Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	36	36.0	3.25	1.278	14.2	57	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	20	1.1	2	0
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	27	19.7	3.65	1.574	9.1	20	1.0	2	1	1	2	1	27	1.0	1	1
Shawn Armstrong	Middle Reliever	26	20.7	3.04	1.401	11.7	27	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

TEX wins 3-2

Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox

WAS 45-43 (5.34 RPG / 5.15 RA)

2 - 3

BOS 37-48 (3.96 RPG / 4.05 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 3-2 TARGET: WAS 2 - 3 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 52.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
WAS	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	3
BOS	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	x	3	5

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-2.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff6.0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak

WAS Season Quality

Record44-43

Win%0.506

Run Diff9

RD/Game0.103

BOS Season Quality

Record37-47

Win%0.440

Run Diff1

RD/Game0.012

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1894; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	LF	87	335	88	0.263	21	52	0.385	5	3	1	1	1	2	1	0.333	0.246	0.355	0.462	OK
Curtis Mead	3B	71	224	50	0.223	14	39	0.320	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.154	0.237	0.306	OK
Andrés Chaparro	1B	19	45	7	0.156	0	5	0.269	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.192	0.280	0.312	OK
Dylan Crews	RF	36	142	32	0.225	5	17	0.267	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.233	0.260	0.349	OK
Daylen Lile	DH	85	331	83	0.251	8	39	0.306	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.237	0.280	0.363	OK
Jacob Young	CF	74	255	56	0.220	8	30	0.263	4	4	2	1	1	0	2	0.500	0.195	0.227	0.314	OK
Jorbit Vivas	2B	60	155	40	0.258	3	15	0.331	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.260	0.324	0.389	OK
Nasim Nuñez	SS	75	241	56	0.232	0	27	0.319	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.217	0.307	0.281	OK
Drew Millas	C	38	118	22	0.186	2	9	0.267	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.198	0.255	0.294	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	30	3	2	2	7	9	0.100

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Anthony Seigler	2B	13	40	14	0.350	1	3	0.409	4	4	3	1	2	0	1	0.750	0.191	0.262	0.373	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	78	297	83	0.279	7	35	0.327	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.245	0.276	0.373	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	82	314	84	0.268	10	39	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.236	0.312	0.407	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	80	289	81	0.280	18	53	0.372	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.266	0.336	0.524	OK
Romy Gonzalez	DH	2	7	1	0.143	0	0	0.143	4	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.232	0.241	0.324	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	75	250	58	0.232	7	35	0.287	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.265	0.310	0.446	OK
Nate Eaton	LF	8	20	4	0.200	1	3	0.333	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.147	0.274	0.331	OK
Andruw Monasterio	SS	46	129	28	0.217	3	12	0.257	3	3	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.121	0.167	0.257	OK
Connor Wong	C	33	93	26	0.280	1	14	0.370	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.177	0.270	0.313	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	28	5	3	3	3	11	0.179

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brad Lord	Starter	25	49.9	3.61	1.242	9.2	51	5.0	5	3	3	3	7	90	5.0	7	3
Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	25	23.0	3.52	1.435	11.0	28	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	26	22.0	4.09	1.318	7.4	18	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	0.0	0	0
PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	33	29.2	3.39	1.507	6.8	22	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Carson Palmquist	Middle Reliever	1	3.1	2.90	0.968	8.7	3	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	4	1.0	2	0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Payton Tolle	Starter	12	70.4	2.81	1.037	8.8	69	6.0	2	2	2	7	5	110	6.0	5	2
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	25	24.2	1.12	1.116	11.9	32	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10	1.0	2	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	28	27.2	2.65	1.066	10.6	32	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	22	15.5	7.55	2.000	14.5	25	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

BOS wins 3-2

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

CHW Recent Form

BAL Recent Form

CHW Season Quality

BAL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers

CIN Recent Form

MIL Recent Form

CIN Season Quality

MIL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees

DET Recent Form

NYY Recent Form

DET Season Quality

NYY Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Oakland Athletics

LAD Recent Form

OAK Recent Form

LAD Season Quality

OAK Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies

MIA Recent Form

COL Recent Form

MIA Season Quality

COL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros

MIN Recent Form

HOU Recent Form

MIN Season Quality

HOU Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays

NYM Recent Form

TOR Recent Form

NYM Season Quality

TOR Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies