MLB Predictions — June 25, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
ARI @ STL	2 - 4	2 - 3	STL	STL	STL wins 3-2	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CHC @ NYM	4 - 3	5 - 2	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 5-2	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
HOU @ DET	2 - 4	3 - 4	DET	DET	DET wins 4-3	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
KC @ TB	4 - 5	2 - 6	TB	TB	TB wins 6-2	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
NYY @ BOS	4 - 1	4 - 1	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 4-1	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
OAK @ SF	3 - 4	3 - 4	SF	SF	SF wins 4-3	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
PHI @ WAS	3 - 1	3 - 2	PHI	PHI	PHI wins 3-2	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SEA @ PIT	3 - 1	3 - 1	SEA	SEA	SEA wins 3-1	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TEX @ TOR	3 - 2	4 - 3	TEX	TEX	TEX wins 4-3	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals

ARI 41-39 (4.33 RPG / 4.58 RA)

2 - 3

STL 42-36 (4.6 RPG / 4.62 RA)

WINNER: STL wins 3-2 TARGET: ARI 2 - 4 STL (STL) Confidence: 52.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	7
STL	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	x	3	10

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.294

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed2.5

Run Diff-107.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

STL Recent Form

Win%0.210

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-112.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

ARI Season Quality

Record41-39

Win%0.512

Run Diff-20

RD/Game-0.250

STL Season Quality

Record42-36

Win%0.538

Run Diff-1

RD/Game-0.013

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2761; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jorge Barrosa	CF	40	105	19	0.181	2	9	0.246	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.222	0.277	0.441	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	75	257	61	0.237	4	27	0.354	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.221	0.344	0.329	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	73	297	78	0.263	12	46	0.315	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.275	0.327	0.458	OK
Pavin Smith	DH	17	46	8	0.174	1	5	0.264	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.238	0.316	0.350	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	51	174	48	0.276	6	25	0.358	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.278	0.354	0.461	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	73	247	59	0.239	8	32	0.315	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.232	0.292	0.343	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	75	278	79	0.284	13	42	0.372	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.279	0.357	0.543	OK
Tommy Troy	OF	23	75	18	0.240	3	5	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.226	0.302	0.400	OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	LF	30	112	23	0.205	1	13	0.260	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.197	0.244	0.281	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	7	2	2	2	9	0.206

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Nathan Church	LF	55	184	49	0.266	5	19	0.310	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.281	0.332	0.427	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	68	257	63	0.245	3	31	0.314	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.261	0.314	0.388	OK
JJ Wetherholt	SS	72	285	75	0.263	12	33	0.361	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.248	0.316	0.414	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	76	298	85	0.285	13	56	0.349	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.273	0.333	0.456	OK
Jimmy Crooks	C	17	47	8	0.170	1	7	0.264	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.217	0.285	0.332	OK
Blaze Jordan	1B	12	42	12	0.286	1	12	0.298	4	4	3	0	0	0	1	0.750	0.249	0.286	0.426	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	76	298	87	0.292	17	55	0.345	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.258	0.309	0.413	OK
Lars Nootbaar	LF	17	59	17	0.288	2	7	0.386	4	3	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.260	0.362	0.441	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	77	280	72	0.257	10	34	0.398	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.239	0.356	0.388	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	10	3	3	2	9	0.303

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zac Gallen	Starter	16	77.8	6.25	1.671	6.0	52	5.0	8	3	3	2	7	95	5.0	7	3
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1	1.0	9.00	2.000	0.0	0	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	1.0	1	0
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	2	2.1	0.00	0.476	8.6	2	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	2	1.2	15.00	3.333	7.5	1	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	20	0.0	0	0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael McGreevy	Starter	15	82.4	3.39	1.165	5.8	53	5.1	7	2	2	2	7	96	5.1	7	2
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	33	31.7	4.26	1.262	9.4	33	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10	1.0	1	0
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	34	28.0	3.54	1.321	8.7	27	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	35	27.0	5.00	1.593	11.3	34	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	34	25.4	6.38	1.850	13.1	37	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	14	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

STL wins 3-2

Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets

CHC 43-37 (4.94 RPG / 4.49 RA)

5 - 2

NYM 34-46 (4.06 RPG / 4.64 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 5-2 TARGET: CHC 4 - 3 NYM (CHC) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	2	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	5	9
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	8

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.139

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff-162.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.265

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff-161.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CHC Season Quality

Record43-37

Win%0.537

Run Diff36

RD/Game0.450

NYM Season Quality

Record34-46

Win%0.425

Run Diff-46

RD/Game-0.575

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.1937; margin adjustment: -0.5014; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	79	298	86	0.289	17	44	0.371	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.308	0.385	0.573	OK
Michael Conforto	RF	46	103	23	0.223	4	13	0.310	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.136	0.222	0.286	OK
Michael Busch	1B	78	283	69	0.244	9	44	0.376	5	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.225	0.345	0.382	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	77	304	75	0.247	6	25	0.343	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.230	0.327	0.316	OK
Ian Happ	LF	74	280	65	0.232	16	37	0.343	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.250	0.346	0.436	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	77	313	76	0.243	4	35	0.315	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.256	0.324	0.381	OK
Pedro Ramirez	DH	17	45	13	0.289	1	6	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.177	0.228	0.303	OK
Miguel Amaya	C	35	105	24	0.229	3	10	0.336	4	4	3	1	1	0	0	0.750	0.220	0.293	0.345	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	74	248	51	0.206	11	46	0.307	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.268	0.363	0.529	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	36	9	5	5	2	7	0.250

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carson Benge	RF	75	283	73	0.258	9	30	0.320	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.240	0.295	0.413	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	79	320	81	0.253	10	45	0.296	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0.400	0.253	0.292	0.420	OK
Juan Soto	DH	60	218	66	0.303	17	38	0.398	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.288	0.379	0.537	OK
Mark Vientos	1B	66	218	48	0.220	10	33	0.259	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.153	0.205	0.327	OK
Francisco Alvarez	C	48	158	41	0.259	8	18	0.326	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.259	0.315	0.479	OK
A.J. Ewing	CF	40	134	35	0.261	3	15	0.342	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.248	0.329	0.421	OK
Ronny Mauricio	SS	10	32	7	0.219	1	2	0.219	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.131	0.141	0.208	OK
MJ Melendez	LF	51	117	22	0.188	4	11	0.304	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.181	0.278	0.311	OK
Brett Baty	2B	70	226	50	0.221	3	26	0.294	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.184	0.264	0.271	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	35	8	2	2	4	9	0.229

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Matthew Boyd	Starter	5	22.6	6.37	1.372	12.3	31	4.2	5	2	2	1	5	89	4.2	5	2
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	34	29.6	4.26	1.554	12.2	40	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	23	16.8	5.36	1.488	13.4	25	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	1.0	2	0
Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	29	20.2	7.57	2.228	12.9	29	1.0	2	0	0	1	0	23	1.0	0	0
Hoby Milner	Middle Reliever	37	29.6	3.95	1.351	5.5	18	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	24	1.1	1	0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Freddy Peralta	Starter	16	83.1	4.98	1.432	9.0	83	5.0	5	3	3	2	5	95	5.0	5	3
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	27	23.7	4.18	1.519	14.8	39	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	6	1.0	1	2
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	31	30.9	2.33	0.939	9.9	34	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	32	24.1	2.99	1.577	11.6	31	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	33	33.6	2.14	1.071	9.9	37	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

CHC wins 5-2

Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers

HOU 40-43 (4.48 RPG / 4.94 RA)

3 - 4

DET 34-47 (4.01 RPG / 4.1 RA)

WINNER: DET wins 4-3 TARGET: HOU 2 - 4 DET (DET) Confidence: 52.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	3	6
DET	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	x	4	8

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.343

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff-214.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

DET Recent Form

Win%0.290

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-123.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

HOU Season Quality

Record39-43

Win%0.476

Run Diff-39

RD/Game-0.476

DET Season Quality

Record34-46

Win%0.425

Run Diff-6

RD/Game-0.075

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3247; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	43	165	47	0.285	6	19	0.353	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.256	0.318	0.414	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	80	288	94	0.326	25	56	0.440	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.280	0.402	0.519	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	74	266	64	0.241	10	40	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.261	0.329	0.398	OK
Christian Walker	1B	79	296	70	0.236	18	52	0.310	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.201	0.272	0.361	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	59	226	54	0.239	8	21	0.313	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.243	0.309	0.393	OK
Joey Loperfido	LF	30	87	21	0.241	1	11	0.323	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.236	0.313	0.442	OK
Cam Smith	RF	78	268	59	0.220	8	28	0.300	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.221	0.292	0.378	OK
Taylor Trammell	CF	29	80	22	0.275	1	8	0.326	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.138	0.187	0.288	OK
Christian Vázquez	C	51	152	33	0.217	4	19	0.274	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.192	0.251	0.294	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	6	3	3	3	7	0.182

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kevin McGonigle	DH	76	285	81	0.284	6	28	0.391	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.264	0.360	0.419	OK
Kerry Carpenter	RF	57	156	35	0.224	10	29	0.303	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.216	0.279	0.389	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	72	269	73	0.271	18	56	0.336	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.270	0.312	0.510	OK
Riley Greene	LF	79	283	83	0.293	9	34	0.390	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.254	0.357	0.413	OK
Colt Keith	3B	71	209	53	0.254	4	16	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.239	0.271	0.402	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	78	264	55	0.208	12	30	0.308	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.235	0.324	0.415	OK
Zach McKinstry	SS	52	156	29	0.186	2	12	0.271	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.227	0.307	0.353	OK
James Outman	CF	6	16	3	0.188	1	2	0.235	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.107	0.160	0.217	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	2B	41	112	28	0.250	2	10	0.282	3	3	1	0	0	0	2	0.333	0.265	0.298	0.385	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	32	8	4	4	1	9	0.250

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tatsuya Imai	Starter	10	38.9	6.48	1.517	11.1	48	4.1	4	3	3	1	6	78	4.1	6	3
Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	10	10.0	0.90	0.400	14.4	16	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Bryan King	Middle Reliever	32	29.1	2.78	1.478	8.0	26	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	17	1.0	1	1
Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	33	29.3	5.53	1.365	10.1	33	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.1	1	0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Troy Melton	Starter	5	31.2	2.60	0.962	5.5	19	6.1	6	3	3	3	5	110	6.1	5	3
Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	20	16.6	3.25	1.084	11.9	22	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Will Vest	Middle Reliever	26	22.4	6.43	1.518	10.0	25	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	6	1.0	1	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	34	32.8	1.65	1.555	7.1	26	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	17	0.2	1	0

Game Summary

DET wins 4-3

Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays

KC 34-48 (4.27 RPG / 4.87 RA)

2 - 6

TB 45-33 (4.5 RPG / 4.33 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 6-2 TARGET: KC 4 - 5 TB (TB) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	6
TB	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	x	6	9

KC Recent Form

Win%0.232

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff-170.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TB Recent Form

Win%0.194

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff-132.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

KC Season Quality

Record34-47

Win%0.420

Run Diff-38

RD/Game-0.469

TB Season Quality

Record44-33

Win%0.571

Run Diff2

RD/Game0.026

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7226; margin adjustment: 0.3035; applied: True

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	C	72	249	61	0.245	10	40	0.316	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.261	0.332	0.438	OK
Nick Loftin	3B	43	129	33	0.256	3	24	0.344	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.266	0.337	0.481	OK
Jac Caglianone	1B	74	254	68	0.268	14	30	0.338	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.188	0.253	0.434	OK
Lane Thomas	CF	61	170	38	0.224	5	21	0.335	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.227	0.318	0.367	OK
Josh Rojas	2B	4	7	3	0.429	1	4	0.429	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.143	0.157	0.362	OK
Salvador Perez	DH	74	291	60	0.206	10	30	0.249	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.205	0.232	0.328	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	68	220	50	0.227	3	23	0.338	4	4	3	1	0	0	1	0.750	0.243	0.331	0.354	OK
Starling Marte	RF	32	87	23	0.264	1	7	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.245	0.283	0.358	OK
Tyler Tolbert	SS	14	26	7	0.269	0	1	0.355	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.137	0.244	0.179	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	2	2	2	15	0.182

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	74	283	94	0.332	12	51	0.414	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.314	0.384	0.448	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	76	277	78	0.282	12	53	0.383	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.277	0.364	0.416	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	77	290	81	0.279	16	37	0.374	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.269	0.359	0.451	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	53	157	37	0.236	1	21	0.339	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.161	0.255	0.252	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	71	275	73	0.265	0	15	0.304	4	3	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.176	0.230	0.236	OK
Cedric Mullins	CF	66	226	45	0.199	6	22	0.286	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.223	0.291	0.322	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	56	176	39	0.222	0	18	0.322	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	0.667	0.238	0.334	0.355	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	14	42	8	0.190	2	5	0.306	4	4	1	1	3	0	2	0.250	0.211	0.321	0.337	OK
Hunter Feduccia	C	38	89	21	0.236	1	6	0.310	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.135	0.211	0.203	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	32	9	6	6	4	10	0.281

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Seth Lugo	Starter	15	83.7	3.76	1.374	7.1	66	5.1	5	4	4	3	6	94	5.1	6	4
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	33	32.2	4.19	1.491	10.1	36	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	4	1.0	1	1
Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	30	27.8	4.53	1.727	8.1	25	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	19	0.0	0	0
Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	33	29.5	2.75	1.051	9.2	30	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	34	27.0	3.00	1.333	8.0	24	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	14	0.2	2	0
Matt Strahm	Middle Reliever	27	22.8	6.71	1.535	7.5	19	0.0	2	1	1	1	0	14	0.0	0	1

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Casey Legumina	Starter	16	16.4	3.29	1.463	7.7	14	5.0	5	2	2	1	8	89	5.0	8	2
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	33	30.4	2.07	0.921	10.4	35	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	34	30.3	2.97	1.056	8.3	28	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.0	2	0
Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	23	18.7	4.81	1.390	13.5	28	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	17	1.0	3	0
Cam Booser	Middle Reliever	8	8.3	1.08	1.084	10.8	10	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

TB wins 6-2

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

NYY 48-31 (5.06 RPG / 3.63 RA)

4 - 1

BOS 32-46 (3.94 RPG / 4.03 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 4-1 TARGET: NYY 4 - 1 BOS (NYY) Confidence: 52.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	4	8
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	6

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.258

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed2.6

Run Diff-81.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.226

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff-140.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

NYY Season Quality

Record48-31

Win%0.608

Run Diff113

RD/Game1.430

BOS Season Quality

Record32-46

Win%0.410

Run Diff-7

RD/Game-0.090

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.8161; margin adjustment: -0.7628; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Paul Goldschmidt	DH	52	192	57	0.297	14	39	0.349	5	4	3	1	3	1	0	0.750	0.285	0.326	0.569	OK
Ben Rice	1B	73	276	79	0.286	22	52	0.379	5	5	2	1	1	0	2	0.400	0.257	0.340	0.507	OK
Amed Rosario	3B	39	117	29	0.248	7	21	0.286	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.244	0.287	0.443	OK
Cody Bellinger	CF	78	284	77	0.271	11	49	0.369	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.262	0.367	0.425	OK
Jasson Domínguez	RF	18	70	16	0.229	3	7	0.260	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.245	0.268	0.448	OK
Anthony Volpe	SS	30	101	27	0.267	1	13	0.368	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.275	0.370	0.393	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	75	273	62	0.227	12	33	0.304	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.225	0.295	0.408	OK
José Caballero	LF	66	220	56	0.255	7	27	0.314	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.224	0.281	0.351	OK
Austin Wells	C	51	155	25	0.161	4	8	0.268	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.176	0.271	0.262	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	35	8	4	4	4	10	0.229

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Masataka Yoshida	DH	49	149	36	0.242	1	10	0.313	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.150	0.214	0.230	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	72	273	78	0.286	7	34	0.334	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.243	0.273	0.393	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	76	294	81	0.276	10	38	0.339	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.239	0.313	0.442	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	74	271	76	0.280	16	46	0.373	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.227	0.298	0.413	OK
Jarren Duran	LF	72	292	58	0.199	12	37	0.258	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.174	0.227	0.306	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	69	229	50	0.218	5	30	0.273	4	2	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.246	0.288	0.401	OK
Anthony Seigler	2B	7	20	6	0.300	0	1	0.364	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.145	0.216	0.271	OK
Carlos Narváez	C	42	130	26	0.200	2	4	0.271	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.182	0.243	0.277	OK
Marcelo Mayer	SS	67	201	45	0.224	3	22	0.287	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	0.500	0.142	0.203	0.237	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	33	6	1	1	2	8	0.182

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cam Schlittler	Starter	16	92.9	1.74	0.915	10.6	109	6.1	4	0	0	0	7	98	6.1	7	0
David Bednar	Middle Reliever	32	30.9	3.50	1.359	11.4	39	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	38	25.1	2.87	1.673	16.5	46	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	39	29.6	2.13	1.588	11.9	39	0.2	1	1	1	2	1	19	0.2	1	1

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Connelly Early	Starter	15	79.1	3.75	1.315	9.0	79	5.1	5	2	2	2	5	104	5.1	5	2
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	22	21.2	0.85	0.991	12.3	29	1.0	2	2	2	2	2	30	1.0	2	2
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	25	24.2	2.98	1.157	10.8	29	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	19	14.1	7.66	1.986	12.8	20	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever	31	25.1	3.94	1.394	10.8	30	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	15	0.2	1	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-1

Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants

OAK 39-42 (4.63 RPG / 5.3 RA)

3 - 4

SF 34-47 (4.14 RPG / 4.74 RA)

WINNER: SF wins 4-3 TARGET: OAK 3 - 4 SF (SF) Confidence: 52.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	3	6
SF	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	x	4	8

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.250

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff-193.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SF Recent Form

Win%0.203

Avg Runs0.7

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-192.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

OAK Season Quality

Record38-41

Win%0.481

Run Diff-56

RD/Game-0.709

SF Season Quality

Record33-46

Win%0.418

Run Diff-47

RD/Game-0.595

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.019; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Henry Bolte	CF	35	117	36	0.308	2	10	0.390	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.270	0.347	0.392	OK
Nick Kurtz	1B	79	287	81	0.282	19	61	0.429	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.242	0.379	0.476	OK
Shea Langeliers	DH	72	298	79	0.265	19	40	0.331	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.216	0.278	0.420	OK
Tyler Soderstrom	LF	77	281	68	0.242	13	41	0.342	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.252	0.345	0.444	OK
Jonah Heim	C	24	68	17	0.250	5	9	0.297	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.247	0.308	0.473	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	66	193	37	0.192	5	20	0.271	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.231	0.302	0.372	OK
Max Muncy	3B	38	126	29	0.230	5	18	0.296	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.231	0.286	0.481	OK
Jeff McNeil	2B	72	228	52	0.228	3	19	0.296	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.209	0.270	0.318	OK
Alika Williams	SS	16	45	13	0.289	1	5	0.319	3	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.158	0.200	0.319	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	3	3	2	7	0.182

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Matt Chapman	3B	78	284	67	0.236	7	43	0.322	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.200	0.276	0.323	OK
Bryce Eldridge	1B	39	131	38	0.290	6	17	0.390	4	2	1	0	0	2	0	0.500	0.238	0.343	0.396	OK
Casey Schmitt	2B	71	282	83	0.294	16	41	0.322	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.311	0.326	0.509	OK
Rafael Devers	DH	79	303	73	0.241	12	38	0.305	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.245	0.311	0.481	OK
Willy Adames	SS	77	306	69	0.225	13	31	0.265	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.214	0.247	0.380	OK
Jung Hoo Lee	RF	70	266	90	0.338	5	27	0.372	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.312	0.347	0.501	OK
Victor Bericoto	LF	11	22	5	0.227	2	2	0.227	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.132	0.144	0.242	OK
Daniel Susac	C	32	102	27	0.265	0	14	0.312	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.133	0.178	0.214	OK
Jonah Cox	CF	10	19	7	0.368	1	2	0.368	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.142	0.154	0.338	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	8	4	4	4	7	0.250

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jeffrey Springs	Starter	16	80.8	5.68	1.386	8.0	72	4.1	6	4	4	3	2	86	4.1	2	4
Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	18	17.3	7.28	1.445	13.0	25	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	21	0.2	0	0
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	40	29.3	4.61	2.014	13.8	45	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	19	1.0	0	0
Justin Sterner	Middle Reliever	37	31.2	4.62	1.314	10.1	35	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16	1.0	3	0
Mason Barnett	Middle Reliever	7	13.2	1.36	1.061	12.3	18	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	18	1.0	2	0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Landen Roupp	Starter	15	78.0	4.27	1.333	10.3	89	5.1	3	1	1	2	4	97	5.1	4	1
Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	32	28.9	3.43	1.315	12.1	39	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0
Ryan Walker	Middle Reliever	21	17.2	5.76	1.802	9.4	18	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	17	1.0	1	2
Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	25	17.5	4.63	1.829	14.9	29	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	14	0.2	1	0
Dylan Smith	Middle Reliever	9	6.5	1.38	1.385	11.1	8	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

SF wins 4-3

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals

PHI 45-36 (4.43 RPG / 4.38 RA)

3 - 2

WAS 41-41 (5.34 RPG / 5.29 RA)

WINNER: PHI wins 3-2 TARGET: PHI 3 - 1 WAS (PHI) Confidence: 52.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PHI	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	3	7
WAS	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	7

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.157

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-121.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.262

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-154.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

PHI Season Quality

Record44-36

Win%0.550

Run Diff-1

RD/Game-0.013

WAS Season Quality

Record41-40

Win%0.506

Run Diff9

RD/Game0.111

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0579; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trea Turner	SS	75	315	73	0.232	7	23	0.279	4	4	2	1	1	0	2	0.500	0.241	0.281	0.334	OK
Kyle Schwarber	DH	74	284	71	0.250	28	51	0.360	4	3	1	1	0	0	2	0.333	0.257	0.346	0.578	OK
Bryce Harper	1B	78	276	73	0.264	17	44	0.368	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.283	0.373	0.529	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	74	270	87	0.322	11	38	0.354	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.290	0.318	0.493	OK
Alec Bohm	3B	75	278	63	0.227	9	40	0.281	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.226	0.278	0.336	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	73	253	61	0.241	7	39	0.298	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.258	0.306	0.436	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	53	182	37	0.203	5	23	0.283	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.214	0.285	0.354	OK
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	RF	8	28	4	0.143	1	3	0.143	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.210	0.219	0.295	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	71	217	50	0.230	2	15	0.289	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.242	0.297	0.356	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	34	7	3	3	0	9	0.206

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	DH	81	310	82	0.265	20	49	0.390	5	4	2	1	0	1	0	0.500	0.230	0.339	0.432	OK
Curtis Mead	3B	65	201	45	0.224	13	38	0.328	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.149	0.239	0.337	OK
Andrés Chaparro	1B	15	35	7	0.200	0	5	0.300	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.222	0.311	0.365	OK
Dylan Crews	RF	30	118	25	0.212	5	17	0.250	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.240	0.254	0.403	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	79	310	77	0.248	8	37	0.307	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.213	0.262	0.337	OK
Jacob Young	CF	68	240	54	0.225	8	28	0.271	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.209	0.243	0.332	OK
Nasim Nuñez	SS	70	227	54	0.238	0	26	0.320	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.278	0.351	0.363	OK
Jorbit Vivas	2B	55	141	37	0.262	3	14	0.338	4	4	2	1	2	0	2	0.500	0.290	0.356	0.482	OK
Keibert Ruiz	C	50	163	46	0.282	6	29	0.308	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.257	0.283	0.425	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	2	2	3	4	0.206

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	16	103.6	1.82	1.100	10.5	121	6.2	2	0	0	3	4	102	6.2	4	0
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	27	26.2	1.03	0.840	14.8	43	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	6	1.0	0	2
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	32	27.1	3.32	1.328	11.3	34	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	7	1.0	0	0
José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	34	23.1	7.40	2.078	14.4	37	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	20	0.1	0	0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cade Cavalli	Starter	16	75.0	4.20	1.507	9.8	82	4.2	4	1	1	0	6	86	4.2	6	1
Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	23	21.8	3.72	1.422	10.7	26	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	21	1.2	2	0
Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	30	25.0	5.04	1.880	10.1	28	1.1	3	2	2	0	1	26	1.1	1	2
Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	24	47.7	3.58	1.195	8.7	46	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	12	1.1	0	0

Game Summary

PHI wins 3-2

Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates

SEA 41-41 (4.04 RPG / 3.99 RA)

3 - 1

PIT 41-40 (5.05 RPG / 4.72 RA)

WINNER: SEA wins 3-1 TARGET: SEA 3 - 1 PIT (SEA) Confidence: 52.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	3
PIT	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.349

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-120.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.317

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-123.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

SEA Season Quality

Record41-40

Win%0.506

Run Diff8

RD/Game0.099

PIT Season Quality

Record40-40

Win%0.500

Run Diff23

RD/Game0.287

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1795; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
J.P. Crawford	3B	63	219	49	0.224	10	23	0.350	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.238	0.337	0.358	OK
Cal Raleigh	DH	49	187	31	0.166	8	21	0.258	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.197	0.290	0.338	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	80	319	79	0.248	14	38	0.309	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.230	0.283	0.389	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	74	292	75	0.257	8	33	0.317	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.249	0.300	0.360	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	73	268	76	0.284	7	33	0.369	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.239	0.306	0.377	OK
Luke Raley	RF	68	200	47	0.235	14	35	0.295	4	3	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.213	0.252	0.402	OK
Cole Young	2B	81	291	74	0.254	7	37	0.319	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.239	0.294	0.395	OK
Mitch Garver	C	33	95	18	0.189	3	11	0.306	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.204	0.306	0.328	OK
Colt Emerson	SS	31	99	21	0.212	6	16	0.278	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.198	0.246	0.370	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	29	3	3	3	5	11	0.103

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake Mangum	CF	52	168	50	0.298	1	14	0.335	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.279	0.313	0.369	OK
Brandon Lowe	DH	74	289	71	0.246	18	49	0.324	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.243	0.308	0.434	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	79	282	81	0.287	11	51	0.401	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.295	0.387	0.519	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	73	279	83	0.297	3	35	0.343	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.276	0.307	0.397	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	1B	64	242	69	0.285	11	44	0.340	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.263	0.310	0.413	OK
Esmerlyn Valdez	RF	11	30	5	0.167	2	6	0.219	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.236	0.282	0.442	OK
Tyler Callihan	2B	17	44	12	0.273	2	9	0.377	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.155	0.258	0.342	OK
Jared Triolo	SS	44	142	32	0.225	0	9	0.299	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.216	0.284	0.300	OK
Henry Davis	C	42	132	18	0.136	5	17	0.233	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.159	0.237	0.283	OK
TEAM TOTALS									31	30	3	1	1	1	6	0.100

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bryce Miller	Starter	7	39.3	1.60	0.712	9.8	43	6.0	2	1	1	0	6	82	6.0	6	1
Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	30	26.7	4.72	1.386	14.8	44	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	36	28.8	3.12	1.562	8.4	27	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	12	1.0	0	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	37	29.5	2.44	1.525	9.8	32	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bubba Chandler	Starter	15	72.6	4.71	1.405	8.6	69	5.0	2	2	2	5	5	89	5.0	5	2
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	32	30.7	2.64	0.945	11.1	38	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	33	29.9	4.82	1.438	8.1	27	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	33	39.7	4.31	1.360	10.9	48	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.1	1	0
Evan Sisk	Middle Reliever	29	28.4	2.22	1.338	13.3	42	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	20	0.2	2	0
Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	29	24.3	4.81	1.687	14.8	40	0.0	1	1	1	0	0	3	0.0	0	1

Game Summary

SEA wins 3-1

Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays

TEX 39-42 (4.01 RPG / 4.17 RA)

4 - 3

TOR 39-42 (4.11 RPG / 4.46 RA)

WINNER: TEX wins 4-3 TARGET: TEX 3 - 2 TOR (TEX) Confidence: 52.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	4	7
TOR	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	3	10

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.250

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-146.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.265

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff-151.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

TEX Season Quality

Record38-42

Win%0.475

Run Diff-14

RD/Game-0.175

TOR Season Quality

Record39-41

Win%0.487

Run Diff-27

RD/Game-0.338

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1438; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Joc Pederson	DH	74	211	51	0.242	11	27	0.337	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.176	0.265	0.350	OK
Wyatt Langford	CF	38	152	41	0.270	7	17	0.319	4	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.261	0.307	0.492	OK
Corey Seager	SS	47	177	33	0.186	9	24	0.284	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.202	0.280	0.381	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	78	303	81	0.267	8	28	0.333	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.271	0.320	0.457	OK
Jake Burger	1B	77	282	71	0.252	13	46	0.313	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.249	0.309	0.430	OK
Ezequiel Duran	3B	69	237	63	0.266	6	40	0.323	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.142	0.204	0.279	OK
Alejandro Osuna	LF	45	119	31	0.261	0	12	0.362	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.272	0.335	0.356	OK
Kyle Higashioka	C	40	130	29	0.223	5	14	0.299	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.133	0.207	0.235	OK
Nicky Lopez	2B	23	65	21	0.323	1	6	0.362	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.173	0.211	0.229	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	7	4	4	3	8	0.212

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
George Springer	DH	58	224	50	0.223	8	21	0.314	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.235	0.308	0.386	OK
Ernie Clement	SS	77	295	86	0.292	7	28	0.313	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.234	0.261	0.345	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	75	278	77	0.277	4	32	0.354	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.252	0.321	0.346	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	77	282	67	0.238	17	49	0.322	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.251	0.330	0.487	OK
Alejandro Kirk	C	13	47	9	0.191	1	6	0.250	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.215	0.271	0.323	OK
Nathan Lukes	RF	45	143	43	0.301	3	15	0.344	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.262	0.290	0.424	OK
Davis Schneider	LF	40	95	15	0.158	3	11	0.279	4	4	3	0	0	0	0	0.750	0.194	0.293	0.354	OK
Myles Straw	CF	56	124	30	0.242	2	9	0.301	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.143	0.216	0.220	OK
Luis Urías	2B	2	7	3	0.429	1	2	0.500	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.247	0.333	0.400	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	37	10	3	3	2	7	0.270

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
MacKenzie Gore	Starter	16	81.9	4.18	1.331	10.1	92	5.2	9	3	3	0	4	99	5.2	4	3
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	28	34.9	0.77	0.544	9.8	38	1.1	0	0	0	2	2	25	1.1	2	0
Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	28	30.1	2.39	1.030	6.9	23	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	20	24.0	3.75	1.167	10.5	28	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kevin Gausman	Starter	16	86.9	4.14	1.162	9.2	89	5.1	6	4	4	2	5	94	5.1	5	4
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	38	39.5	0.91	1.013	13.2	58	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	9	1.1	0	0
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	39	34.4	2.09	1.337	5.2	20	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	38	31.6	5.41	1.677	16.2	57	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0
Braydon Fisher	Middle Reliever	40	36.7	3.92	1.335	10.3	42	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	19	0.1	1	0

Game Summary

TEX wins 4-3

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals

ARI Recent Form

STL Recent Form

ARI Season Quality

STL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets

CHC Recent Form

NYM Recent Form

CHC Season Quality

NYM Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers

HOU Recent Form

DET Recent Form

HOU Season Quality

DET Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays

KC Recent Form

TB Recent Form

KC Season Quality

TB Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

NYY Recent Form

BOS Recent Form

NYY Season Quality

BOS Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants

OAK Recent Form

SF Recent Form

OAK Season Quality

SF Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals

PHI Recent Form

WAS Recent Form

PHI Season Quality

WAS Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates