MLB Predictions — June 24, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
ARI @ STL	4 - 5	2 - 7	STL	STL	STL wins 7-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
ATL @ SD	4 - 2	5 - 1	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 5-1	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
BAL @ LAA	2 - 3	3 - 4	LAA	LAA	LAA wins 4-3	58%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
BOS @ COL	4 - 2	4 - 3	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 4-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CHC @ NYM	4 - 2	6 - 2	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 6-2	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CHC @ NYM	4 - 2	5 - 2	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 5-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CLE @ CHW	2 - 1	4 - 1	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 4-1	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
HOU @ TOR	2 - 3	1 - 5	TOR	TOR	TOR wins 5-1	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
KC @ TB	1 - 2	0 - 3	TB	TB	TB wins 3-0	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
LAD @ MIN	3 - 1	3 - 2	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 3-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIL @ CIN	5 - 1	5 - 1	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 5-1	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
NYY @ DET	2 - 3	1 - 5	DET	DET	DET wins 5-1	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
OAK @ SF	2 - 1	4 - 1	OAK	OAK	OAK wins 4-1	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
PHI @ WAS	3 - 4	3 - 5	WAS	WAS	WAS wins 5-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SEA @ PIT	3 - 2	3 - 2	SEA	SEA	SEA wins 3-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TEX @ MIA	3 - 2	4 - 3	TEX	TEX	TEX wins 4-3	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals

ARI 40-39 (4.27 RPG / 4.58 RA)

2 - 7

STL 42-35 (4.61 RPG / 4.56 RA)

WINNER: STL wins 7-2 TARGET: ARI 4 - 5 STL (STL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	5
STL	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	4	x	7	11

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.294

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed2.5

Run Diff-107.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

STL Recent Form

Win%0.222

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-107.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

ARI Season Quality

Record40-39

Win%0.506

Run Diff-25

RD/Game-0.316

STL Season Quality

Record42-35

Win%0.545

Run Diff4

RD/Game0.052

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4271; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jorge Barrosa	CF	40	105	19	0.181	2	9	0.246	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.222	0.276	0.441	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	75	257	61	0.237	4	27	0.354	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.220	0.343	0.329	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	73	297	78	0.263	12	46	0.315	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.273	0.326	0.458	OK
Pavin Smith	DH	17	46	8	0.174	1	5	0.264	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.236	0.314	0.348	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	51	174	48	0.276	6	25	0.358	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.276	0.353	0.460	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	73	247	59	0.239	8	32	0.315	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.230	0.290	0.340	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	75	278	79	0.284	13	42	0.372	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.275	0.353	0.538	OK
Tommy Troy	OF	23	75	18	0.240	3	5	0.321	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.222	0.299	0.396	OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	LF	30	112	23	0.205	1	13	0.260	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.193	0.241	0.277	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	5	2	2	4	3	0.156

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	71	280	75	0.268	12	33	0.367	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.274	0.344	0.449	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	76	278	72	0.259	10	34	0.399	5	5	2	1	4	0	3	0.400	0.252	0.358	0.425	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	75	295	86	0.292	17	55	0.345	5	5	2	1	0	0	2	0.400	0.262	0.313	0.425	OK
Nelson Velázquez	LF	13	34	10	0.294	2	6	0.351	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.266	0.309	0.449	OK
José Fermín	3B	42	109	29	0.266	2	14	0.308	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.183	0.227	0.264	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	67	253	62	0.245	3	31	0.315	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.268	0.326	0.399	OK
Lars Nootbaar	CF	16	55	16	0.291	2	7	0.394	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.272	0.377	0.428	OK
Blaze Jordan	1B	11	39	10	0.256	1	9	0.279	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.232	0.272	0.410	OK
Pedro Pagés	C	40	128	28	0.219	4	11	0.261	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.221	0.259	0.352	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	35	11	7	7	3	10	0.314

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zac Gallen	Starter	16	77.8	6.25	1.671	6.0	52	5.0	8	5	5	1	8	103	5.0	8	5
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1	1.0	9.00	2.000	0.0	0	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	21	1.0	0	2
Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	2	1.2	15.00	3.333	7.5	1	1.0	1	0	0	2	1	26	1.0	1	0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Matthew Liberatore	Starter	15	70.0	5.40	1.614	8.6	67	4.1	4	2	2	3	0	80	4.1	0	2
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	33	31.7	4.26	1.262	9.4	33	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.1	1	0
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	34	28.0	3.54	1.321	8.7	27	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	5	1.1	0	0
JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	35	27.0	5.00	1.593	11.3	34	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	34	25.4	6.38	1.850	13.1	37	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

STL wins 7-2

Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres

ATL 48-31 (4.87 RPG / 3.73 RA)

5 - 1

SD 41-37 (3.9 RPG / 4.0 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 5-1 TARGET: ATL 4 - 2 SD (ATL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	5	5
SD	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	6

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.159

Avg Runs0.8

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-128.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

SD Recent Form

Win%0.258

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-148.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

ATL Season Quality

Record48-30

Win%0.615

Run Diff91

RD/Game1.167

SD Season Quality

Record40-37

Win%0.519

Run Diff-9

RD/Game-0.117

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.4274; margin adjustment: -0.5995; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Mauricio Dubón	LF	75	277	74	0.267	8	44	0.319	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.263	0.302	0.423	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	72	262	82	0.313	14	42	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.290	0.316	0.474	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	79	300	84	0.280	12	42	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.260	0.313	0.445	OK
Matt Olson	1B	79	304	81	0.266	20	52	0.339	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.229	0.307	0.398	OK
Austin Riley	3B	79	284	61	0.215	8	36	0.292	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.234	0.293	0.347	OK
Eli White	RF	41	98	22	0.224	3	14	0.267	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.228	0.264	0.376	OK
Joey Bart	C	2	7	0	0.000	0	1	0.000	3	2	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.237	0.261	0.356
Jorge Mateo	DH	41	105	28	0.267	4	11	0.306	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.130	0.173	0.227	OK
Ha-Seong Kim	SS	19	62	5	0.081	0	3	0.174	3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.134	0.220	0.187	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	31	5	5	5	1	8	0.161

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	2B	76	297	85	0.286	3	27	0.349	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.264	0.321	0.402	OK
Samad Taylor	LF	15	54	20	0.370	1	9	0.433	5	4	2	0	0	1	0	0.500	0.196	0.272	0.266	OK
Manny Machado	3B	76	281	52	0.185	14	43	0.264	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.216	0.291	0.423	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	74	257	58	0.226	8	29	0.319	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.218	0.326	0.302	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	74	289	62	0.215	8	31	0.277	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.226	0.281	0.374	OK
Miguel Andujar	DH	56	192	48	0.250	5	17	0.280	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.222	0.244	0.353	OK
Ty France	1B	51	160	39	0.244	8	24	0.292	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.218	0.259	0.431	OK
Freddy Fermin	C	40	122	18	0.148	3	11	0.243	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.174	0.256	0.342	OK
Jase Bowen	RF	10	28	3	0.107	0	0	0.138	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.150	0.182	0.217	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	33	6	1	1	5	7	0.182

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Martín Pérez	Starter	15	66.6	2.84	1.096	7.6	56	5.2	6	1	1	3	4	103	5.2	4	1
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	24	24.4	1.48	1.148	10.7	29	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	18	1.0	0	0
Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever	31	30.6	0.59	0.882	7.6	26	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	36	30.7	1.17	0.717	12.3	42	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	22	27.1	2.66	1.144	11.6	35	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	17	0.1	1	0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
JP Sears	Starter	0	0	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	3.0	4	4	4	1	2	54	3.0	2	4
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	37	34.7	4.15	1.153	12.7	49	2.1	0	0	0	0	0	23	2.1	0	0
Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	32	26.0	2.77	1.346	6.9	20	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15	1.0	2	0
David Morgan	Middle Reliever	16	16.4	5.49	2.256	12.6	23	1.1	1	1	1	0	3	24	1.1	3	1
Wandy Peralta	Middle Reliever	33	33.3	2.16	1.502	7.0	26	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

ATL wins 5-1

Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels

BAL 38-44 (4.66 RPG / 4.96 RA)

3 - 4

LAA 34-48 (4.56 RPG / 5.0 RA)

WINNER: LAA wins 4-3 TARGET: BAL 2 - 3 LAA (LAA) Confidence: 57.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	3	3
LAA	0	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	x	4	11

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.229

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-167.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.310

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff-182.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

BAL Season Quality

Record38-42

Win%0.475

Run Diff-20

RD/Game-0.250

LAA Season Quality

Record32-48

Win%0.400

Run Diff-41

RD/Game-0.512

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.375; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Taylor Ward	LF	78	293	75	0.256	5	21	0.389	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.244	0.351	0.394	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	78	323	74	0.229	15	38	0.300	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.243	0.306	0.432	OK
Leody Taveras	RF	65	212	55	0.259	2	30	0.328	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.178	0.241	0.316	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	79	298	75	0.252	18	53	0.336	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.246	0.332	0.477	OK
Samuel Basallo	C	65	220	56	0.255	10	31	0.314	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.240	0.303	0.384	OK
Colton Cowser	CF	63	165	38	0.230	7	24	0.314	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.250	0.330	0.396	OK
Coby Mayo	DH	59	194	37	0.191	10	30	0.258	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.195	0.256	0.370	OK
Jeremiah Jackson	2B	56	187	47	0.251	6	27	0.268	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.236	0.254	0.359	OK
Blaze Alexander	3B	55	166	52	0.313	3	23	0.361	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.286	0.326	0.462	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	30	3	3	3	3	7	0.100

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Nolan Schanuel	1B	62	233	62	0.266	6	30	0.332	4	4	3	1	1	0	0	0.750	0.272	0.326	0.442	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	13	51	13	0.255	3	11	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.243	0.310	0.457	OK
Wade Meckler	RF	27	86	24	0.279	2	13	0.354	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.256	0.333	0.395	OK
Jorge Soler	DH	60	220	48	0.218	10	35	0.299	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.236	0.304	0.425	OK
Christian Moore	LF	4	15	3	0.200	0	1	0.188	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.232	0.242	0.316	OK
Donovan Walton	2B	21	74	25	0.338	3	11	0.364	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.290	0.318	0.512	OK
Oswald Peraza	SS	68	226	59	0.261	7	21	0.304	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.245	0.268	0.388	OK
Tyler Heineman	C	1	3	2	0.667	0	0	0.750	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.208	0.245	0.317	MODERATE
Jose Siri	LF	27	69	20	0.290	4	16	0.342	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.243	0.295	0.425	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	35	11	4	4	1	5	0.314

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trey Gibson	Starter	6	24.7	6.19	1.822	7.3	20	4.1	8	3	3	0	4	79	4.1	4	3
Ryan Helsley	Middle Reliever	14	11.4	5.53	1.754	13.4	17	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	17	1.1	0	0
Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	35	28.6	2.20	0.839	11.3	36	1.1	2	1	1	0	0	23	1.1	0	1
Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	21	15.1	7.15	1.722	9.5	16	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
José Soriano	Starter	16	89.9	3.10	1.301	9.8	98	5.2	0	1	1	0	5	96	5.2	5	1
Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	17	14.5	3.10	1.103	13.7	22	1.0	3	2	2	3	1	11	1.0	1	2
Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	29	31.7	3.97	1.325	10.2	36	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever	35	23.4	2.69	1.709	12.7	33	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

LAA wins 4-3

Boston Red Sox @ Colorado Rockies

BOS 32-46 (3.94 RPG / 4.03 RA)

4 - 3

COL 32-49 (4.56 RPG / 5.67 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 4-3 TARGET: BOS 4 - 2 COL (BOS) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
BOS	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	4	9
COL	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	3	9

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.246

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff-133.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

COL Recent Form

Win%0.227

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed5.0

Run Diff-244.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak

BOS Season Quality

Record31-45

Win%0.408

Run Diff-8

RD/Game-0.105

COL Season Quality

Record31-48

Win%0.392

Run Diff-89

RD/Game-1.127

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0446; margin adjustment: -0.4387; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Nate Eaton	LF	5	12	4	0.333	1	3	0.467	5	3	1	0	0	2	1	0.333	0.162	0.309	0.417	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	71	268	75	0.280	7	33	0.330	5	5	1	1	2	0	1	0.200	0.250	0.281	0.399	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	75	290	81	0.279	10	38	0.344	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.265	0.339	0.496	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	73	267	75	0.281	16	45	0.375	5	3	0	1	1	1	2	0.000	0.246	0.318	0.436	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	68	227	50	0.220	5	30	0.275	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.276	0.318	0.462	OK
Anthony Seigler	2B	6	16	4	0.250	0	0	0.333	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.150	0.239	0.264	OK
Andruw Monasterio	SS	43	121	27	0.223	2	11	0.266	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.125	0.175	0.232	OK
Connor Wong	DH	30	85	22	0.259	0	10	0.351	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.157	0.240	0.270	OK
Carlos Narváez	C	41	127	25	0.197	2	4	0.270	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.183	0.247	0.276	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	38	9	4	4	3	11	0.237

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Willi Castro	2B	67	236	65	0.275	6	33	0.351	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.252	0.322	0.418	OK
Tyler Freeman	RF	49	172	47	0.273	3	20	0.349	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.177	0.211	0.259	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	74	270	77	0.285	12	41	0.360	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.278	0.336	0.505	OK
Hunter Goodman	DH	74	280	68	0.243	21	39	0.311	5	5	2	0	0	0	2	0.400	0.224	0.276	0.424	OK
Cole Carrigg	CF	13	44	11	0.250	3	8	0.377	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.246	0.355	0.439	OK
Jake McCarthy	LF	59	208	61	0.293	5	30	0.332	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.274	0.314	0.465	OK
Braxton Fulford	C	21	36	9	0.250	1	7	0.341	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.143	0.263	0.279	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	71	256	55	0.215	6	25	0.261	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.205	0.245	0.346	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	72	214	54	0.252	4	21	0.344	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.248	0.328	0.412	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	39	9	3	3	2	8	0.231

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ranger Suarez	Starter	14	74.8	3.01	1.150	9.0	75	5.2	6	2	2	2	6	97	5.2	6	2
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	22	21.2	0.85	0.991	12.3	29	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	25	24.2	2.98	1.157	10.8	29	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	18	13.1	6.87	1.832	13.1	19	0.2	3	1	1	0	1	17	0.2	1	1
Ryan Watson	Reliever	26	41.8	5.17	1.411	7.5	35	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kyle Freeland	Starter	13	63.2	7.69	1.646	8.1	57	4.2	8	4	4	3	5	95	4.2	5	4
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	22	35.9	2.51	1.198	8.3	33	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	19	1.1	0	0
Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	32	29.3	7.99	2.082	11.4	37	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	19	1.0	2	0
Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	20	19.8	6.36	2.020	7.3	16	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	21	1.2	2	0
Brennan Bernardino	Middle Reliever	37	24.1	4.85	1.826	9.0	24	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0

Game Summary

BOS wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)

Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets

CHC 42-37 (4.87 RPG / 4.48 RA)

6 - 2

NYM 34-45 (4.05 RPG / 4.57 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 6-2 TARGET: CHC 4 - 2 NYM (CHC) Confidence: 57.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	1	6	9
NYM	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	9

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.129

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-178.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.313

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-151.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CHC Season Quality

Record41-37

Win%0.526

Run Diff24

RD/Game0.308

NYM Season Quality

Record34-44

Win%0.436

Run Diff-34

RD/Game-0.436

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.8782; margin adjustment: -0.3688; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	77	289	84	0.291	17	43	0.371	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.307	0.378	0.622	OK
Michael Conforto	RF	45	99	22	0.222	4	12	0.312	5	3	0	1	1	2	1	0.000	0.121	0.211	0.266	OK
Michael Busch	1B	76	275	68	0.247	8	42	0.379	5	4	1	1	1	1	2	0.250	0.232	0.353	0.368	OK
Seiya Suzuki	DH	63	230	62	0.270	10	31	0.362	5	5	1	1	2	0	2	0.200	0.299	0.387	0.456	OK
Ian Happ	LF	73	277	64	0.231	16	37	0.340	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.244	0.336	0.424	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	75	304	72	0.237	4	35	0.310	5	4	2	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.230	0.296	0.330	OK
Pedro Ramirez	3B	15	37	10	0.270	1	4	0.325	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.168	0.228	0.283	OK
Miguel Amaya	C	34	102	23	0.225	3	10	0.331	5	4	1	0	0	1	3	0.250	0.209	0.284	0.339	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	72	239	46	0.192	9	35	0.299	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.230	0.338	0.432	OK
TEAM TOTALS									44	36	9	6	6	8	10	0.250

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carson Benge	RF	73	275	71	0.258	9	30	0.320	5	5	2	0	0	0	1	0.400	0.246	0.297	0.421	OK
A.J. Ewing	CF	38	127	33	0.260	2	13	0.340	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.250	0.327	0.379	OK
Bo Bichette	SS	77	312	78	0.250	9	44	0.294	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.258	0.301	0.408	OK
Jared Young	1B	30	91	21	0.231	4	9	0.293	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.129	0.188	0.237	OK
Francisco Alvarez	DH	46	151	38	0.252	6	16	0.317	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.258	0.309	0.415	OK
Brett Baty	3B	68	223	50	0.224	3	26	0.294	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.201	0.272	0.293	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	77	278	61	0.219	9	29	0.279	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.216	0.280	0.343	OK
MJ Melendez	LF	50	113	21	0.186	4	11	0.306	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.174	0.275	0.307	OK
Luis Torrens	C	45	131	29	0.221	1	15	0.271	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.146	0.175	0.243	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	36	9	2	2	0	10	0.250

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Javier Assad	Starter	11	41.2	4.15	1.068	5.5	25	5.2	6	1	1	0	7	101	5.2	7	1
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	33	28.6	4.41	1.538	12.3	39	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	26	1.1	2	0
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	22	15.8	5.70	1.519	13.1	23	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	29	20.2	7.57	2.228	12.9	29	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nolan McLean	Starter	15	81.7	3.75	1.114	10.7	97	5.1	2	0	0	5	7	105	5.1	7	0
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	26	22.7	4.36	1.454	15.1	38	1.0	5	5	5	2	0	36	1.0	0	5
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	30	29.9	2.41	0.936	9.9	33	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	31	23.1	2.34	1.515	12.1	31	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	28	1.0	0	0
Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	32	31.6	2.28	1.139	9.4	33	0.2	2	1	1	0	2	18	0.2	2	1

Game Summary

CHC wins 6-2

Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets

CHC 42-37 (4.87 RPG / 4.48 RA)

5 - 2

NYM 34-45 (4.05 RPG / 4.57 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 5-2 TARGET: CHC 4 - 2 NYM (CHC) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	8
NYM	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	6

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.129

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-178.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.313

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-151.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CHC Season Quality

Record41-37

Win%0.526

Run Diff24

RD/Game0.308

NYM Season Quality

Record34-44

Win%0.436

Run Diff-34

RD/Game-0.436

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.8782; margin adjustment: -0.3688; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	77	289	84	0.291	17	43	0.371	5	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.307	0.378	0.623	OK
Michael Conforto	RF	45	99	22	0.222	4	12	0.312	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.121	0.211	0.266	OK
Michael Busch	1B	76	275	68	0.247	8	42	0.379	5	5	1	1	0	0	3	0.200	0.232	0.353	0.369	OK
Seiya Suzuki	DH	63	230	62	0.270	10	31	0.362	5	4	1	1	3	1	0	0.250	0.299	0.388	0.457	OK
Ian Happ	LF	73	277	64	0.231	16	37	0.340	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.244	0.336	0.424	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	75	304	72	0.237	4	35	0.310	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.230	0.296	0.331	OK
Pedro Ramirez	3B	15	37	10	0.270	1	4	0.325	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.168	0.228	0.283	OK
Miguel Amaya	C	34	102	23	0.225	3	10	0.331	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.209	0.284	0.340	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	72	239	46	0.192	9	35	0.299	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.230	0.338	0.433	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	35	8	5	5	5	5	0.229

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carson Benge	RF	73	275	71	0.258	9	30	0.320	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.247	0.297	0.422	OK
A.J. Ewing	CF	38	127	33	0.260	2	13	0.340	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.250	0.327	0.380	OK
Bo Bichette	SS	77	312	78	0.250	9	44	0.294	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.258	0.302	0.409	OK
Jared Young	1B	30	91	21	0.231	4	9	0.293	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.129	0.188	0.238	OK
Francisco Alvarez	DH	46	151	38	0.252	6	16	0.317	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.258	0.310	0.415	OK
Brett Baty	3B	68	223	50	0.224	3	26	0.294	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.201	0.273	0.294	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	77	278	61	0.219	9	29	0.279	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.216	0.281	0.343	OK
MJ Melendez	LF	50	113	21	0.186	4	11	0.306	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.174	0.276	0.307	OK
Luis Torrens	C	45	131	29	0.221	1	15	0.271	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.146	0.175	0.243	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	6	2	2	3	9	0.182

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shota Imanaga	Starter	15	85.5	4.32	1.076	8.8	84	5.2	5	2	2	2	7	94	5.2	7	2
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	33	28.6	4.41	1.538	12.3	39	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	22	15.8	5.70	1.519	13.1	23	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	13	1.0	0	0
Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	29	20.2	7.57	2.228	12.9	29	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	17	1.0	2	0
Hoby Milner	Middle Reliever	36	28.6	4.09	1.329	5.3	17	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	15	0.1	0	0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sean Manaea	Starter	16	52.0	4.85	1.404	9.7	56	5.1	6	5	5	3	3	97	5.1	3	5
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	26	22.7	4.36	1.454	15.1	38	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	30	29.9	2.41	0.936	9.9	33	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	1.0	2	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	31	23.1	2.34	1.515	12.1	31	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	32	31.6	2.28	1.139	9.4	33	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	18	0.2	0	0
A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever	11	8.6	0.00	0.698	8.4	8	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	12	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

CHC wins 5-2

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox

CLE 42-39 (3.95 RPG / 4.05 RA)

4 - 1

CHW 41-38 (4.61 RPG / 4.65 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 4-1 TARGET: CLE 2 - 1 CHW (CLE) Confidence: 55.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	4	7
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	4

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.269

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-123.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.324

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed2.3

Run Diff-73.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CLE Season Quality

Record41-39

Win%0.512

Run Diff-9

RD/Game-0.113

CHW Season Quality

Record41-37

Win%0.526

Run Diff-2

RD/Game-0.026

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1066; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Travis Bazzana	2B	49	179	48	0.268	7	24	0.365	5	3	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.270	0.354	0.486	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	76	254	69	0.272	5	33	0.343	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.255	0.304	0.376	OK
David Fry	LF	45	105	23	0.219	4	9	0.322	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.214	0.319	0.401	OK
Kyle Manzardo	1B	69	216	50	0.231	9	27	0.320	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.223	0.301	0.395	OK
Rhys Hoskins	DH	60	185	32	0.173	7	26	0.304	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.189	0.297	0.365	OK
Kahlil Watson	RF	6	17	3	0.176	1	3	0.176	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.245	0.256	0.399	OK
Daniel Schneemann	3B	63	202	43	0.213	6	26	0.284	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.191	0.256	0.323	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	21	63	15	0.238	1	6	0.279	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.233	0.284	0.318	OK
Steven Kwan	CF	69	245	51	0.208	1	13	0.315	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.193	0.289	0.264	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	34	7	4	4	5	7	0.206

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Junior Perez	CF	1	2	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.250	0.263	0.377
Colson Montgomery	SS	74	271	59	0.218	20	45	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.206	0.276	0.443	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	74	281	76	0.270	6	25	0.334	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.238	0.293	0.349	OK
Jacob Gonzalez	SS	17	48	8	0.167	1	5	0.273	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.196	0.262	0.275	OK
Drew Romo	C	27	90	13	0.144	5	11	0.228	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.105	0.179	0.215	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	75	275	65	0.236	16	44	0.350	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.219	0.310	0.379	OK
Braden Montgomery	OF	12	42	11	0.262	1	5	0.311	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.239	0.292	0.425	OK
Sam Antonacci	SS	58	199	58	0.291	4	22	0.391	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.277	0.336	0.461	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	69	214	50	0.234	9	37	0.292	3	1	1	0	0	2	0	1.000	0.214	0.273	0.447	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	31	4	1	1	2	4	0.129

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tanner Bibee	Starter	16	87.7	4.10	1.197	8.0	78	5.2	4	1	1	1	2	89	5.2	2	1
Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	33	33.8	2.93	1.154	14.4	54	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	4	1.1	1	0
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	24	18.3	3.93	1.530	8.4	17	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Shawn Armstrong	Middle Reliever	23	18.4	2.45	1.304	11.7	24	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Davis Martin	Starter	14	79.8	3.38	1.216	9.4	83	6.0	4	1	1	4	2	104	6.0	2	1
Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	2	1.1	16.36	3.636	0.0	0	0.1	2	2	2	1	1	16	0.1	1	2
Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	1.48	1.311	11.8	8	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1	2.1	8.57	1.905	4.3	1	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	23	1.0	2	1
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	24	20.9	1.72	1.483	9.9	23	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	15	0.2	1	0

Game Summary

CLE wins 4-1

Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays

HOU 38-43 (4.53 RPG / 5.04 RA)

1 - 5

TOR 39-40 (4.14 RPG / 4.46 RA)

WINNER: TOR wins 5-1 TARGET: HOU 2 - 3 TOR (TOR) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	5
TOR	0	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	x	5	11

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.313

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff-214.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.284

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-149.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

HOU Season Quality

Record38-43

Win%0.469

Run Diff-41

RD/Game-0.506

TOR Season Quality

Record39-40

Win%0.494

Run Diff-25

RD/Game-0.316

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2265; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jose Altuve	2B	58	222	54	0.243	8	21	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.256	0.315	0.429	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	79	285	94	0.330	25	56	0.441	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.295	0.408	0.536	OK
Jeremy Peña	SS	42	162	46	0.284	6	18	0.346	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.267	0.317	0.479	OK
Isaac Paredes	1B	73	261	63	0.241	10	39	0.344	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.270	0.342	0.404	OK
Joey Loperfido	LF	29	84	20	0.238	1	11	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.236	0.306	0.417	OK
Yainer Diaz	C	29	114	28	0.246	3	15	0.273	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.252	0.288	0.400	OK
Cam Smith	RF	77	265	59	0.223	8	28	0.301	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.232	0.297	0.394	OK
Brice Matthews	CF	61	177	35	0.198	6	17	0.243	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.190	0.233	0.330	OK
Raynel Delgado	3B	6	18	6	0.333	0	2	0.333	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.224	0.235	0.302	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	32	5	1	1	0	5	0.156

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
George Springer	DH	57	220	50	0.227	8	21	0.319	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.253	0.328	0.419	OK
Nathan Lukes	RF	44	140	42	0.300	2	14	0.344	4	3	1	1	1	1	2	0.333	0.259	0.286	0.405	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	74	275	77	0.280	4	32	0.356	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.262	0.326	0.378	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	76	278	67	0.241	17	49	0.326	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.266	0.345	0.523	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	62	225	59	0.262	7	22	0.332	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.256	0.321	0.483	OK
Alejandro Kirk	C	12	44	9	0.205	1	6	0.265	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.220	0.279	0.333	OK
Davis Schneider	LF	39	92	15	0.163	3	11	0.287	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.207	0.307	0.393	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	74	248	58	0.234	7	33	0.277	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.237	0.258	0.374	OK
Luis Urías	2B	1	5	2	0.400	1	2	0.400	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.217	0.225	0.354	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	35	11	5	5	1	8	0.314

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Mike Burrows	Starter	15	77.7	5.91	1.609	7.6	66	4.1	11	5	5	1	6	101	4.1	6	5
Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	9	9.0	1.00	0.333	14.0	14	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Bryan King	Middle Reliever	31	28.1	2.88	1.495	8.3	26	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	33	29.3	5.53	1.365	10.1	33	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.1	0	0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trey Yesavage	Starter	10	53.6	3.86	1.194	8.9	53	5.2	3	0	0	0	1	88	5.2	1	0
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	38	39.5	0.91	1.013	13.2	58	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	5	1.1	0	0
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	39	34.4	2.09	1.337	5.2	20	1.0	1	1	1	0	3	16	1.0	3	1
Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	37	30.5	5.61	1.672	16.2	55	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	6	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

TOR wins 5-1

Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays

KC 34-46 (4.31 RPG / 4.76 RA)

0 - 3

TB 43-33 (4.38 RPG / 4.38 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 3-0 TARGET: KC 1 - 2 TB (TB) Confidence: 51.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
TB	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	x	3	4

KC Recent Form

Win%0.232

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff-170.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TB Recent Form

Win%0.180

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff-136.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

KC Season Quality

Record34-46

Win%0.425

Run Diff-36

RD/Game-0.450

TB Season Quality

Record43-33

Win%0.566

Run Diff0

RD/Game0.000

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6612; margin adjustment: 0.2777; applied: True

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	DH	71	245	60	0.245	10	40	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.266	0.333	0.455	OK
Nick Loftin	3B	42	125	33	0.264	3	24	0.349	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.283	0.355	0.517	OK
Jac Caglianone	1B	73	250	68	0.272	14	30	0.343	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.193	0.260	0.450	OK
Salvador Perez	C	73	287	60	0.209	10	30	0.252	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.225	0.251	0.368	OK
Michael Massey	2B	59	180	47	0.261	7	27	0.284	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.171	0.209	0.308	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	67	215	48	0.223	3	23	0.337	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.251	0.341	0.364	OK
John Rave	RF	4	10	3	0.300	1	1	0.417	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.136	0.263	0.533	OK
Kameron Misner	CF	7	24	8	0.333	0	4	0.360	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.132	0.168	0.212	OK
Tyler Tolbert	SS	13	24	6	0.250	0	1	0.321	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.130	0.221	0.181	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	32	5	0	0	1	6	0.156

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	73	278	90	0.324	12	50	0.408	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.289	0.364	0.428	OK
Jonny DeLuca	CF	41	133	36	0.271	4	22	0.302	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.259	0.292	0.480	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	76	288	81	0.281	16	37	0.372	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.278	0.358	0.460	OK
Ryan Vilade	RF	43	119	34	0.286	5	25	0.341	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.270	0.326	0.497	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	75	273	76	0.278	12	52	0.381	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.267	0.360	0.421	OK
Ben Williamson	2B	54	167	40	0.240	1	18	0.306	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.216	0.272	0.333	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	55	172	38	0.221	0	18	0.323	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.236	0.334	0.343	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	70	273	72	0.264	0	15	0.300	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.158	0.207	0.217	OK
Nick Fortes	C	57	175	43	0.246	1	14	0.289	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.206	0.232	0.300	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	28	4	3	3	2	8	0.143

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Noah Cameron	Starter	14	73.6	4.28	1.291	8.6	70	5.1	3	3	3	2	6	93	5.1	6	3
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	33	32.2	4.19	1.491	10.1	36	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	21	2.0	1	0
Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	29	26.8	4.70	1.754	8.1	24	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	0.2	1	0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Griffin Jax	Starter	20	46.2	3.31	1.299	9.0	46	5.1	3	0	0	1	4	80	5.1	4	0
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	32	29.4	1.84	0.918	10.1	33	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.1	0	0
Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	33	29.3	3.07	1.092	8.6	28	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	22	17.7	5.08	1.469	13.7	27	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

TB wins 3-0

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins

LAD 51-29 (5.24 RPG / 3.45 RA)

3 - 2

MIN 38-43 (4.84 RPG / 5.19 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 3-2 TARGET: LAD 3 - 1 MIN (LAD) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	7
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	5

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.312

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed3.0

Run Diff-112.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.217

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff-193.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

LAD Season Quality

Record51-29

Win%0.637

Run Diff143

RD/Game1.788

MIN Season Quality

Record38-43

Win%0.469

Run Diff-28

RD/Game-0.346

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.3857; margin adjustment: -1.002; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	72	270	79	0.293	17	45	0.414	5	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.266	0.388	0.578	OK
Andy Pages	CF	79	308	83	0.269	15	58	0.320	5	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.255	0.310	0.417	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	77	291	81	0.278	13	43	0.368	5	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.270	0.356	0.492	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	44	179	39	0.218	8	20	0.277	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.262	0.316	0.430	OK
Max Muncy	3B	73	240	63	0.262	16	33	0.363	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.265	0.358	0.477	OK
Alex Call	RF	40	100	27	0.270	1	15	0.373	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.186	0.293	0.299	OK
Ryan Ward	LF	18	50	11	0.220	3	11	0.291	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.243	0.316	0.455	OK
Dalton Rushing	C	44	135	34	0.252	8	22	0.336	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.223	0.293	0.387	OK
Alex Freeland	2B	56	158	38	0.241	3	17	0.322	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.263	0.346	0.365	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	33	7	3	3	3	7	0.212

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trevor Larnach	LF	62	200	56	0.280	5	23	0.368	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	0.250	0.204	0.283	0.352	OK
Byron Buxton	CF	69	284	78	0.275	25	41	0.332	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.257	0.304	0.525	OK
Kody Clemens	RF	66	238	57	0.239	11	29	0.304	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.145	0.200	0.291	OK
Josh Bell	DH	78	282	70	0.248	9	49	0.307	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.258	0.319	0.425	OK
Royce Lewis	1B	47	166	34	0.205	7	21	0.287	4	4	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.219	0.291	0.379	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	74	281	67	0.238	13	44	0.290	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.229	0.276	0.420	OK
Victor Caratini	C	57	182	43	0.236	6	30	0.327	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.259	0.334	0.443	OK
Tristan Gray	2B	48	134	32	0.239	4	28	0.281	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.198	0.239	0.292	OK
Ryan Kreidler	SS	33	85	24	0.282	4	18	0.351	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.268	0.335	0.472	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	5	2	2	5	12	0.156

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shohei Ohtani	Starter	12	73.2	1.48	0.888	9.6	78	6.0	3	2	2	4	9	107	6.0	9	2
Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	34	29.9	2.41	0.736	11.4	38	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	24	1.1	0	0
Will Klein	Middle Reliever	27	27.6	2.93	1.594	11.1	34	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	34	19.5	3.23	1.385	15.7	34	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	14	0.2	2	0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Joe Ryan	Starter	16	86.4	3.02	1.007	10.3	99	6.0	5	1	1	1	7	107	6.0	7	1
Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	22	16.4	1.65	1.159	12.1	22	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Anthony Banda	Middle Reliever	36	24.3	5.56	1.646	10.7	29	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	26	29.3	5.22	1.809	11.7	38	1.0	1	1	1	2	0	25	1.0	0	1

Game Summary

LAD wins 3-2

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds

MIL 48-29 (5.21 RPG / 3.62 RA)

5 - 1

CIN 37-41 (4.18 RPG / 4.81 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 5-1 TARGET: MIL 5 - 1 CIN (MIL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	2	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	5	8
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	5

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.277

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed2.6

Run Diff-90.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff-179.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

MIL Season Quality

Record48-29

Win%0.623

Run Diff122

RD/Game1.584

CIN Season Quality

Record37-41

Win%0.474

Run Diff-49

RD/Game-0.628

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.4361; margin adjustment: -1.0232; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Christian Yelich	DH	44	174	45	0.259	5	24	0.337	5	5	3	1	0	0	1	0.600	0.238	0.313	0.391	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	43	184	54	0.293	10	30	0.345	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.257	0.305	0.459	OK
Brice Turang	2B	72	274	74	0.270	11	47	0.377	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.269	0.361	0.432	OK
William Contreras	C	72	285	84	0.295	7	46	0.353	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.293	0.354	0.428	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	66	229	62	0.271	13	47	0.372	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.254	0.350	0.441	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	64	208	50	0.240	4	29	0.335	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.240	0.325	0.401	OK
Sal Frelick	RF	68	221	51	0.231	3	27	0.296	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.258	0.316	0.362	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	8	23	7	0.304	0	2	0.370	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.265	0.347	0.345	OK
David Hamilton	3B	58	178	41	0.230	3	12	0.305	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.228	0.291	0.326	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	5	5	2	8	0.229

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Blake Dunn	LF	32	133	36	0.271	2	5	0.331	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.158	0.219	0.247	OK
Elly De La Cruz	SS	58	231	65	0.281	12	37	0.348	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.227	0.287	0.409	OK
Dane Myers	CF	47	103	28	0.272	3	13	0.361	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.159	0.260	0.266	OK
Sal Stewart	3B	77	289	72	0.249	14	54	0.341	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.217	0.298	0.383	OK
Spencer Steer	1B	73	260	62	0.238	12	31	0.317	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.198	0.267	0.383	OK
Eugenio Suárez	DH	50	182	37	0.203	7	25	0.259	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.186	0.234	0.319	OK
Noelvi Marte	RF	24	77	16	0.208	3	4	0.247	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.213	0.252	0.377	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	59	188	40	0.213	6	22	0.299	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.224	0.300	0.371	OK
Matt McLain	2B	69	248	50	0.202	8	25	0.303	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.176	0.266	0.295	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	5	1	1	3	6	0.156

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shane Drohan	Starter	15	45.8	3.54	1.223	9.2	47	5.1	3	0	0	1	4	80	5.1	4	0
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	29	29.0	2.48	0.931	11.8	38	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	20	1.0	0	1
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	31	27.0	3.67	1.222	10.3	31	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	36	42.9	3.36	1.445	13.8	66	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	22	1.2	1	0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Rhett Lowder	Starter	11	50.7	4.97	1.499	7.5	42	4.1	6	4	4	2	3	91	4.1	3	4
Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	33	28.9	4.36	1.349	8.7	28	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	38	30.5	3.54	1.705	9.4	32	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	17	1.1	3	0
Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	19	18.0	3.00	1.111	9.0	18	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Sam Moll	Middle Reliever	34	26.4	3.75	1.326	12.3	36	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-1

New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers

NYY 47-31 (5.08 RPG / 3.65 RA)

1 - 5

DET 34-45 (4.08 RPG / 4.13 RA)

WINNER: DET wins 5-1 TARGET: NYY 2 - 3 DET (DET) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4
DET	2	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	x	5	9

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.246

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed2.6

Run Diff-81.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

DET Recent Form

Win%0.294

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-121.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

NYY Season Quality

Record47-31

Win%0.603

Run Diff111

RD/Game1.423

DET Season Quality

Record34-45

Win%0.430

Run Diff-4

RD/Game-0.051

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.732; margin adjustment: -0.7274; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Paul Goldschmidt	1B	51	188	55	0.293	12	37	0.346	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.266	0.308	0.486	OK
Ben Rice	DH	72	272	77	0.283	22	52	0.378	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.252	0.337	0.525	OK
Jasson Domínguez	RF	17	66	15	0.227	2	5	0.261	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.244	0.269	0.414	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	77	280	76	0.271	11	49	0.370	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.255	0.365	0.410	OK
Anthony Volpe	SS	29	97	27	0.278	1	13	0.381	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.297	0.395	0.419	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	74	269	62	0.230	12	33	0.308	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.239	0.313	0.449	OK
José Caballero	3B	65	217	56	0.258	7	27	0.318	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.242	0.300	0.376	OK
Austin Wells	C	50	152	25	0.164	4	8	0.273	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.185	0.280	0.277	OK
Max Schuemann	CF	12	29	6	0.207	0	3	0.343	3	1	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.120	0.254	0.298	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	4	1	1	3	6	0.129

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kevin McGonigle	3B	75	280	79	0.282	6	28	0.391	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.244	0.342	0.392	OK
Dillon Dingler	DH	71	264	73	0.277	18	56	0.341	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.280	0.322	0.520	OK
Matt Vierling	CF	59	191	36	0.188	5	26	0.250	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.125	0.192	0.264	OK
Riley Greene	LF	78	279	82	0.294	9	34	0.391	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.238	0.349	0.395	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	77	261	54	0.207	12	30	0.306	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.219	0.303	0.394	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	2B	40	109	26	0.239	2	10	0.265	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.254	0.279	0.389	OK
Ben Malgeri	RF	1	3	2	0.667	0	0	0.667	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.260	0.271	0.365	OK
Zach McKinstry	SS	51	152	28	0.184	2	11	0.272	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.201	0.286	0.327	OK
Jake Rogers	C	23	65	10	0.154	1	6	0.230	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.186	0.254	0.331	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	9	5	5	3	8	0.273

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Weathers	Starter	14	78.1	4.26	1.165	10.3	89	6.0	5	3	3	2	5	111	6.0	5	3
David Bednar	Middle Reliever	31	29.9	3.61	1.371	11.4	38	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Camilo Doval	Middle Reliever	33	24.9	6.14	1.446	10.1	28	0.0	4	2	2	0	0	15	0.0	0	2
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	37	24.0	3.00	1.708	15.8	42	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tarik Skubal	Starter	9	51.8	3.13	1.062	9.9	57	6.0	4	1	1	2	6	96	6.0	6	1
Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	20	16.6	3.25	1.084	11.9	22	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Will Vest	Middle Reliever	26	22.4	6.43	1.518	10.0	25	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.0	0	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	34	32.8	1.65	1.555	7.1	26	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

DET wins 5-1

Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants

OAK 38-41 (4.62 RPG / 5.33 RA)

4 - 1

SF 33-46 (4.14 RPG / 4.73 RA)

WINNER: OAK wins 4-1 TARGET: OAK 2 - 1 SF (OAK) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	7
SF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	5

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.239

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-192.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SF Recent Form

Win%0.191

Avg Runs0.8

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff-195.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

OAK Season Quality

Record38-40

Win%0.487

Run Diff-54

RD/Game-0.692

SF Season Quality

Record32-46

Win%0.410

Run Diff-49

RD/Game-0.628

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0513; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Henry Bolte	CF	34	115	35	0.304	2	10	0.379	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.273	0.344	0.381	OK
Nick Kurtz	1B	78	283	81	0.286	19	61	0.434	5	5	2	1	0	0	2	0.400	0.257	0.395	0.500	OK
Shea Langeliers	C	71	295	79	0.268	19	40	0.332	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.222	0.281	0.431	OK
Tyler Soderstrom	LF	76	277	68	0.245	13	41	0.346	4	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.269	0.361	0.489	OK
Jacob Wilson	SS	49	199	55	0.276	4	26	0.310	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.241	0.286	0.371	OK
Joey Meneses	DH	2	5	1	0.200	0	1	0.333	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.257	0.363	0.369	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	65	190	37	0.195	5	20	0.275	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.239	0.310	0.400	OK
Max Muncy	3B	37	123	28	0.228	4	17	0.295	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.215	0.274	0.421	OK
Jeff McNeil	2B	71	225	52	0.231	3	19	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.218	0.282	0.327	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	7	4	4	3	5	0.206

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Matt Chapman	3B	77	281	67	0.238	7	43	0.323	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.199	0.271	0.321	OK
Bryce Eldridge	1B	38	128	38	0.297	6	17	0.393	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.253	0.350	0.449	OK
Casey Schmitt	2B	70	278	83	0.299	16	41	0.327	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.322	0.337	0.524	OK
Rafael Devers	DH	78	299	72	0.241	11	37	0.306	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.248	0.318	0.457	OK
Willy Adames	SS	76	302	69	0.228	13	31	0.269	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.219	0.252	0.408	OK
Jung Hoo Lee	RF	69	262	88	0.336	5	27	0.370	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.295	0.333	0.480	OK
Victor Bericoto	LF	10	18	3	0.167	1	1	0.167	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.116	0.129	0.218	OK
Eric Haase	C	19	56	12	0.214	4	9	0.267	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.199	0.254	0.371	OK
Jonah Cox	CF	9	17	6	0.353	1	2	0.353	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.151	0.164	0.384	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	5	1	1	1	9	0.156

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gage Jump	Starter	5	30.1	2.39	0.997	7.8	26	6.0	2	0	0	1	6	90	6.0	6	0
Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	17	17.1	6.32	1.345	13.2	25	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	7	1.1	2	0
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	39	28.3	4.77	2.049	13.7	43	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.0	1	0
Justin Sterner	Middle Reliever	36	30.2	4.77	1.358	10.4	35	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	16	0.2	0	1

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Logan Webb	Starter	13	83.1	3.36	1.119	7.6	70	6.2	5	3	3	3	5	111	6.2	5	3
Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	32	28.9	3.43	1.315	12.1	39	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0
Ryan Walker	Middle Reliever	20	16.2	6.11	1.914	9.4	17	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11	1.0	0	0
Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	24	16.5	4.91	1.879	15.3	28	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	15	0.1	0	1

Game Summary

OAK wins 4-1

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals

PHI 43-36 (4.35 RPG / 4.38 RA)

3 - 5

WAS 41-39 (5.36 RPG / 5.24 RA)

WINNER: WAS wins 5-3 TARGET: PHI 3 - 4 WAS (WAS) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PHI	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	6
WAS	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	x	5	8

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.174

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-124.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.262

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-154.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

PHI Season Quality

Record43-36

Win%0.544

Run Diff-2

RD/Game-0.025

WAS Season Quality

Record41-39

Win%0.512

Run Diff10

RD/Game0.125

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1026; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trea Turner	SS	74	310	71	0.229	7	23	0.277	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.240	0.281	0.333	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	73	266	84	0.316	11	38	0.349	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.269	0.298	0.473	OK
Bryce Harper	DH	77	272	73	0.268	17	44	0.372	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.287	0.382	0.539	OK
Alec Bohm	1B	74	274	63	0.230	9	40	0.284	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.239	0.290	0.358	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	72	249	60	0.241	7	38	0.299	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.260	0.310	0.432	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	52	180	37	0.206	5	22	0.284	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.215	0.279	0.353	OK
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	RF	7	24	3	0.125	1	2	0.125	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.208	0.218	0.301	OK
Edmundo Sosa	3B	44	126	30	0.238	5	24	0.269	4	4	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.166	0.181	0.323	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	70	214	50	0.234	2	15	0.293	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.246	0.300	0.359	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	3	3	3	8	0.182

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	RF	80	305	82	0.269	20	49	0.395	5	3	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.238	0.347	0.445	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	74	244	64	0.262	12	48	0.287	4	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.180	0.213	0.420	OK
José Tena	DH	56	140	31	0.221	3	16	0.283	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.251	0.310	0.393	OK
CJ Abrams	SS	77	287	82	0.286	17	57	0.366	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.268	0.323	0.532	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	78	306	76	0.248	8	37	0.308	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.207	0.257	0.337	OK
Dylan Crews	CF	29	114	25	0.219	5	17	0.258	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.252	0.266	0.423	OK
Jorbit Vivas	3B	54	139	36	0.259	2	13	0.335	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.288	0.355	0.435	OK
Drew Millas	C	36	110	20	0.182	2	8	0.262	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.194	0.261	0.300	OK
Nasim Nuñez	2B	69	223	54	0.242	0	26	0.325	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.279	0.355	0.366	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	8	5	5	4	5	0.250

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Aaron Nola	Starter	15	73.1	5.91	1.532	9.5	77	4.2	6	3	3	3	5	94	4.2	5	3
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	26	25.2	1.07	0.873	14.3	40	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	32	27.1	3.32	1.328	11.3	34	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	23	1.0	0	2
José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	33	22.1	7.74	2.081	14.7	36	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cade Cavalli	Starter	16	75.0	4.20	1.507	9.8	82	4.2	2	1	1	2	4	86	4.2	4	1
Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	23	21.8	3.72	1.422	10.7	26	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	23	20.7	3.48	1.159	7.4	17	1.2	3	2	2	1	2	34	1.2	2	2
Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	24	47.7	3.58	1.195	8.7	46	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	10	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

WAS wins 5-3

Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates

SEA 41-39 (4.11 RPG / 3.89 RA)

3 - 2

PIT 39-40 (4.97 RPG / 4.81 RA)

WINNER: SEA wins 3-2 TARGET: SEA 3 - 2 PIT (SEA) Confidence: 52.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	7
PIT	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	7

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.349

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-117.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.302

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-138.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

SEA Season Quality

Record41-39

Win%0.512

Run Diff18

RD/Game0.225

PIT Season Quality

Record39-40

Win%0.494

Run Diff13

RD/Game0.165

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0887; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
J.P. Crawford	3B	62	215	48	0.223	10	23	0.351	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.233	0.337	0.359	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	48	183	30	0.164	8	21	0.258	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.190	0.285	0.334	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	79	315	77	0.244	14	37	0.307	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.227	0.283	0.394	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	73	288	73	0.253	8	33	0.314	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.242	0.295	0.351	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	72	265	76	0.287	7	33	0.373	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.261	0.328	0.426	OK
Dominic Canzone	DH	68	178	50	0.281	12	33	0.347	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.275	0.338	0.582	OK
Luke Raley	RF	67	196	47	0.240	14	35	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.221	0.264	0.413	OK
Cole Young	2B	80	288	73	0.253	7	37	0.319	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.234	0.290	0.387	OK
Colt Emerson	SS	30	96	21	0.219	6	16	0.286	3	3	1	0	0	0	2	0.333	0.212	0.264	0.405	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	34	7	3	3	1	11	0.206

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Spencer Horwitz	1B	73	245	69	0.282	10	33	0.386	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.259	0.348	0.426	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	73	284	70	0.246	18	49	0.326	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.246	0.317	0.450	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	79	282	81	0.287	11	51	0.401	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.291	0.384	0.516	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	72	274	81	0.296	3	35	0.342	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.271	0.303	0.393	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	DH	63	237	65	0.274	11	41	0.331	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.242	0.291	0.392	OK
Endy Rodríguez	C	26	72	18	0.250	3	8	0.357	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.252	0.349	0.424	OK
Tyler Callihan	RF	16	41	11	0.268	2	7	0.388	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.143	0.253	0.289	OK
Jake Mangum	CF	51	164	49	0.299	1	13	0.337	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.249	0.285	0.336	OK
Jared Triolo	SS	43	138	32	0.232	0	9	0.307	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.228	0.296	0.313	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	7	2	2	4	10	0.206

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bryan Woo	Starter	15	88.3	3.98	1.008	9.0	88	6.0	6	2	2	3	7	112	6.0	7	2
Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	30	26.7	4.72	1.386	14.8	44	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	18	1.0	0	0
José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	36	28.8	3.12	1.562	8.4	27	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	37	29.5	2.44	1.525	9.8	32	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Braxton Ashcraft	Starter	15	88.8	3.24	1.126	9.8	97	5.2	4	2	2	1	8	90	5.2	8	2
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	32	30.7	2.64	0.945	11.1	38	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	33	29.9	4.82	1.438	8.1	27	1.1	3	1	1	0	1	26	1.1	1	1
Evan Sisk	Middle Reliever	29	28.4	2.22	1.338	13.3	42	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	20	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

SEA wins 3-2

Texas Rangers @ Miami Marlins

TEX 38-42 (3.99 RPG / 4.16 RA)

4 - 3

MIA 42-39 (4.31 RPG / 4.27 RA)

WINNER: TEX wins 4-3 TARGET: TEX 3 - 2 MIA (TEX) Confidence: 56.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	0	4	10
MIA	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	4

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.262

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff-144.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.227

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff-132.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

TEX Season Quality

Record38-41

Win%0.481

Run Diff-12

RD/Game-0.152

MIA Season Quality

Record41-39

Win%0.512

Run Diff1

RD/Game0.013

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2116; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Joc Pederson	DH	73	207	50	0.242	10	26	0.339	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.167	0.260	0.315	OK
Wyatt Langford	CF	37	148	39	0.264	6	16	0.314	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.263	0.309	0.482	OK
Josh Jung	3B	74	287	86	0.300	8	31	0.360	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.259	0.318	0.374	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	77	299	81	0.271	8	28	0.337	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.282	0.330	0.476	OK
Jake Burger	1B	76	279	70	0.251	13	46	0.313	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.245	0.309	0.431	OK
Ezequiel Duran	SS	68	234	63	0.269	6	40	0.327	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.146	0.218	0.288	OK
Alejandro Osuna	LF	44	116	30	0.259	0	12	0.363	4	4	2	1	1	0	2	0.500	0.263	0.327	0.348	OK
Elias Díaz	C	9	25	9	0.360	0	5	0.346	4	4	2	1	2	0	2	0.500	0.237	0.257	0.406	OK
Nicky Lopez	2B	22	64	20	0.312	1	6	0.353	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.166	0.204	0.222	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	37	10	4	4	2	13	0.270

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Xavier Edwards	2B	79	290	85	0.293	6	27	0.375	5	4	1	1	2	1	2	0.250	0.258	0.335	0.378	OK
Otto Lopez	SS	79	312	105	0.337	5	33	0.369	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.287	0.323	0.419	OK
Kyle Stowers	1B	56	206	46	0.223	8	29	0.315	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.228	0.308	0.444	OK
Heriberto Hernández	LF	49	153	36	0.235	8	29	0.293	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.243	0.299	0.464	OK
Griffin Conine	DH	11	29	6	0.207	2	4	0.258	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.140	0.197	0.276	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	77	270	54	0.200	4	19	0.324	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.212	0.315	0.328	OK
Owen Caissie	RF	67	191	43	0.225	9	43	0.280	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.260	0.317	0.511	OK
Leo Jiménez	3B	26	77	14	0.182	0	1	0.256	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.112	0.162	0.172	OK
Brian Navarreto	C	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.233	0.294	0.382
TEAM TOTALS									37	31	4	3	3	6	11	0.129

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jacob deGrom	Starter	15	81.5	3.64	1.043	10.8	98	5.2	3	3	3	5	8	108	5.2	8	3
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	28	34.9	0.77	0.544	9.8	38	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.1	1	0
Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	28	30.1	2.39	1.030	6.9	23	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	20	1.0	0	0
Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	27	19.6	6.89	1.684	11.9	26	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	13	0.2	1	0
Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	32	26.9	3.35	1.673	8.0	24	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	14	0.1	1	0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sandy Alcantara	Starter	17	108.6	4.06	1.252	6.7	81	6.1	4	3	3	2	9	106	6.1	9	3
Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	25	21.6	7.08	1.435	13.3	32	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	19	1.0	2	0
Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	33	28.0	4.18	1.821	10.9	34	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1
Anthony Bender	Middle Reliever	33	25.6	3.52	1.211	13.0	37	0.2	2	0	0	0	2	16	0.2	2	0
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	31	29.5	3.66	1.186	11.9	39	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	19	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

TEX wins 4-3

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals

ARI Recent Form

STL Recent Form

ARI Season Quality

STL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres

ATL Recent Form

SD Recent Form

ATL Season Quality

SD Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels

BAL Recent Form

LAA Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

LAA Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Boston Red Sox @ Colorado Rockies

BOS Recent Form

COL Recent Form

BOS Season Quality

COL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets

CHC Recent Form

NYM Recent Form

CHC Season Quality

NYM Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets

CHC Recent Form

NYM Recent Form

CHC Season Quality

NYM Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox

CLE Recent Form

CHW Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

CHW Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays