MLB Predictions — June 22, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
ARI @ STL	2 - 5	3 - 4	STL	STL	STL wins 4-3	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
ATL @ SD	6 - 4	6 - 4	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 6-4	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
BAL @ LAA	3 - 2	4 - 2	BAL	BAL	BAL wins 4-2	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
BOS @ COL	3 - 2	4 - 2	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 4-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CHC @ NYM	4 - 2	5 - 1	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 5-1	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CLE @ CHW	5 - 4	5 - 4	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 5-4	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
HOU @ TOR	1 - 2	1 - 2	TOR	TOR	TOR wins 2-1	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
KC @ TB	1 - 3	2 - 3	TB	TB	TB wins 3-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
LAD @ MIN	4 - 3	4 - 2	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 4-2	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIL @ CIN	7 - 2	6 - 2	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 6-2	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
NYY @ DET	4 - 1	3 - 2	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 3-2	63%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
PHI @ WAS	3 - 2	3 - 2	PHI	PHI	PHI wins 3-2	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TEX @ MIA	2 - 1	2 - 1	TEX	TEX	TEX wins 2-1	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals

ARI 39-38 (4.3 RPG / 4.62 RA)

3 - 4

STL 41-34 (4.65 RPG / 4.6 RA)

WINNER: STL wins 4-3 TARGET: ARI 2 - 5 STL (STL) Confidence: 57.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	3	7
STL	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	x	4	8

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.284

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed2.5

Run Diff-107.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

STL Recent Form

Win%0.194

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed3.0

Run Diff-109.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

ARI Season Quality

Record39-38

Win%0.506

Run Diff-25

RD/Game-0.325

STL Season Quality

Record41-34

Win%0.547

Run Diff4

RD/Game0.053

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4383; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ketel Marte	2B	72	293	76	0.259	12	46	0.312	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.264	0.316	0.446	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	74	253	61	0.241	4	27	0.358	5	3	1	1	0	2	1	0.333	0.229	0.354	0.340	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	74	274	77	0.281	13	42	0.370	5	5	1	1	3	0	0	0.200	0.264	0.341	0.518	OK
Pavin Smith	1B	16	43	8	0.186	1	5	0.280	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.242	0.324	0.356	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	72	243	58	0.239	8	31	0.316	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.221	0.282	0.333	OK
Adrian Del Castillo	C	38	120	23	0.192	4	20	0.252	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.225	0.286	0.373	OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	DH	29	109	23	0.211	1	13	0.261	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.219	0.267	0.311	OK
Tommy Troy	LF	22	71	17	0.239	2	4	0.325	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.226	0.307	0.382	OK
Tim Tawa	CF	14	36	5	0.139	0	2	0.238	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.204	0.295	0.319	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	34	7	3	3	7	8	0.206

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	69	271	73	0.269	12	33	0.371	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.290	0.363	0.470	OK
Iván Herrera	C	74	272	71	0.261	10	34	0.399	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.256	0.354	0.430	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	73	289	82	0.284	13	54	0.346	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.261	0.320	0.457	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	73	287	84	0.293	17	55	0.347	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.251	0.304	0.420	OK
Lars Nootbaar	LF	14	50	14	0.280	2	7	0.362	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	0.333	0.271	0.353	0.425	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	66	249	61	0.245	3	31	0.316	4	3	3	1	2	1	0	1.000	0.271	0.332	0.407	OK
Jimmy Crooks	DH	14	40	7	0.175	1	6	0.283	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.217	0.300	0.355	OK
Blaze Jordan	3B	9	35	10	0.286	1	7	0.306	4	3	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.239	0.267	0.413	OK
Nathan Church	CF	52	179	47	0.263	5	18	0.307	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.243	0.305	0.388	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	31	8	4	4	5	13	0.258

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Merrill Kelly	Starter	12	68.5	5.91	1.533	5.5	42	5.0	7	4	4	2	9	104	5.0	9	4
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1	1.0	9.00	2.000	0.0	0	1.0	0	0	0	3	1	25	1.0	1	0
Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	2	1.2	15.00	3.333	7.5	1	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	20	0.0	0	0
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	2	2.1	0.00	0.476	8.6	2	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16	1.0	3	0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andre Pallante	Starter	14	75.5	3.81	1.219	7.4	62	5.2	4	0	0	4	5	111	5.2	5	0
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	32	30.7	4.40	1.303	9.7	33	1.0	1	3	3	2	1	24	1.0	1	3
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	33	27.9	3.55	1.326	8.7	27	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	34	26.0	5.19	1.654	11.8	34	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	31	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

STL wins 4-3

Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres

ATL 48-29 (4.92 RPG / 3.73 RA)

6 - 4

SD 39-37 (3.89 RPG / 4.03 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 6-4 TARGET: ATL 6 - 4 SD (ATL) Confidence: 55.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
ATL	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	2	6	12
SD	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	4	6

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.197

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-125.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

SD Recent Form

Win%0.231

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-146.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

ATL Season Quality

Record48-29

Win%0.623

Run Diff92

RD/Game1.195

SD Season Quality

Record39-37

Win%0.513

Run Diff-10

RD/Game-0.132

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.4917; margin adjustment: -0.6265; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Mauricio Dubón	LF	73	268	71	0.265	7	43	0.318	6	5	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.260	0.303	0.413	OK
Drake Baldwin	C	54	211	60	0.284	15	40	0.364	6	5	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.237	0.305	0.455	OK
Matt Olson	1B	77	296	80	0.270	20	51	0.342	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.257	0.332	0.443	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	77	293	83	0.283	12	41	0.333	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.273	0.317	0.448	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	70	253	78	0.308	14	41	0.338	5	4	3	1	1	1	0	0.750	0.299	0.330	0.476	OK
Austin Riley	3B	77	276	58	0.210	8	36	0.288	5	4	1	1	3	1	0	0.250	0.236	0.295	0.361	OK
Dominic Smith	DH	57	164	47	0.287	6	29	0.314	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.252	0.288	0.389	OK
Mike Yastrzemski	RF	66	187	43	0.230	4	18	0.311	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.215	0.290	0.365	OK
Jorge Mateo	SS	39	101	28	0.277	4	11	0.318	5	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.136	0.183	0.235	OK
TEAM TOTALS									47	41	12	6	6	5	7	0.293

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	74	288	82	0.285	2	25	0.350	5	4	1	1	1	1	2	0.250	0.267	0.326	0.379	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	72	282	61	0.216	8	31	0.278	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.237	0.284	0.393	OK
Manny Machado	3B	74	273	49	0.179	13	41	0.259	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.203	0.281	0.384	OK
Gavin Sheets	DH	69	222	51	0.230	12	33	0.316	5	5	1	0	0	0	3	0.200	0.235	0.307	0.431	OK
Ty France	1B	49	155	39	0.252	8	24	0.301	5	3	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.230	0.273	0.445	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	72	253	58	0.229	8	29	0.314	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.235	0.317	0.318	OK
Will Wagner	2B	11	25	7	0.280	0	0	0.419	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.245	0.373	0.355	OK
Rodolfo Durán	C	20	52	7	0.135	3	6	0.250	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.177	0.262	0.353	OK
Samad Taylor	LF	13	47	17	0.362	1	8	0.423	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.172	0.248	0.242	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	36	6	4	4	5	15	0.167

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Grant Holmes	Starter	15	68.8	4.71	1.497	8.2	63	4.1	2	1	1	3	10	86	4.1	10	1
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	23	23.4	1.54	1.111	10.8	28	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.1	0	0
Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever	31	30.6	0.59	0.882	7.6	26	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	35	29.6	1.22	0.743	12.8	42	1.0	1	1	1	1	2	20	1.0	2	1
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	21	27.0	2.67	1.148	11.3	34	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	21	1.1	2	0
Dylan Dodd	Middle Reliever	12	16.4	2.20	0.915	10.4	19	0.2	2	2	2	0	1	20	0.2	1	2
James Karinchak	Reliever	4	4.0	0.00	0.500	9.0	4	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	0.0	0	0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael King	Starter	15	82.9	3.69	1.218	7.9	73	5.2	6	3	3	4	4	105	5.2	4	3
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	35	32.7	4.40	1.223	12.7	46	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	32	26.0	2.77	1.346	6.9	20	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0
David Morgan	Middle Reliever	15	15.4	5.84	2.338	13.4	23	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	12	1.0	1	1
Wandy Peralta	Middle Reliever	32	32.3	2.23	1.548	6.7	24	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Yuki Matsui	Middle Reliever	17	22.1	1.63	1.131	11.4	28	0.0	2	2	2	0	0	17	0.0	0	2

Game Summary

ATL wins 6-4 (Extra Innings - 10)

Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels

BAL 37-42 (4.67 RPG / 4.99 RA)

4 - 2

LAA 32-47 (4.57 RPG / 5.03 RA)

WINNER: BAL wins 4-2 TARGET: BAL 3 - 2 LAA (BAL) Confidence: 56.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	10
LAA	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	7

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.261

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff-158.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.333

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-169.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

BAL Season Quality

Record37-42

Win%0.468

Run Diff-25

RD/Game-0.316

LAA Season Quality

Record32-47

Win%0.405

Run Diff-36

RD/Game-0.456

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2342; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Taylor Ward	LF	76	284	73	0.257	4	20	0.393	5	5	3	1	0	0	0	0.600	0.242	0.356	0.366	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	76	315	70	0.222	15	37	0.293	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.226	0.292	0.435	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	77	291	74	0.254	18	52	0.339	5	4	1	1	2	1	1	0.250	0.251	0.337	0.497	OK
Coby Mayo	DH	57	187	36	0.193	9	27	0.262	5	3	1	0	0	2	1	0.333	0.204	0.270	0.354	OK
Tyler O'Neill	RF	43	122	23	0.189	2	8	0.283	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.242	0.313	0.362	OK
Blaze Alexander	3B	54	165	52	0.315	3	23	0.363	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.300	0.339	0.472	OK
Colton Cowser	CF	61	158	38	0.241	7	24	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.264	0.350	0.429	OK
Jeremiah Jackson	2B	54	180	45	0.250	6	27	0.267	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.237	0.256	0.392	OK
Sam Huff	C	7	19	4	0.211	0	1	0.211	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.224	0.235	0.390	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	37	10	4	4	5	6	0.270

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	76	302	68	0.225	17	39	0.327	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.225	0.305	0.481	OK
Nolan Schanuel	1B	60	225	58	0.258	5	28	0.327	4	2	2	0	0	1	0	1.000	0.247	0.311	0.389	OK
Jo Adell	RF	79	311	77	0.248	10	41	0.291	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.234	0.259	0.357	OK
Jorge Soler	DH	58	214	47	0.220	9	33	0.300	4	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.234	0.300	0.384	OK
Wade Meckler	LF	26	82	23	0.280	2	13	0.359	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.251	0.332	0.389	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	12	48	13	0.271	3	11	0.327	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.257	0.317	0.477	OK
Donovan Walton	2B	20	70	24	0.343	3	11	0.370	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.288	0.318	0.530	OK
Logan O'Hoppe	C	50	164	40	0.244	4	20	0.313	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.272	0.325	0.435	OK
Jose Siri	CF	25	64	19	0.297	4	16	0.343	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.242	0.287	0.429	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	7	2	2	2	9	0.212

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kyle Bradish	Starter	15	79.6	4.07	1.533	9.6	85	5.0	6	2	2	1	5	93	5.0	5	2
Ryan Helsley	Middle Reliever	14	11.4	5.53	1.754	13.4	17	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	34	27.6	1.96	0.833	11.4	35	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	21	15.1	7.15	1.722	9.5	16	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	12	0.2	2	0
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	34	21.1	2.13	0.806	10.7	25	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.1	1	0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sam Aldegheri	Starter	6	19.3	4.66	1.606	6.1	13	4.0	4	2	2	3	4	86	4.0	4	2
Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	16	13.5	3.33	1.111	12.7	19	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	28	30.7	4.10	1.368	10.3	35	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	33	1.2	0	0
Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever	34	23.2	2.72	1.681	12.4	32	1.1	2	1	1	0	0	26	1.1	0	1
Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	30	32.4	5.00	1.481	12.8	46	1.0	3	1	1	1	1	26	1.0	1	1

Game Summary

BAL wins 4-2

Boston Red Sox @ Colorado Rockies

BOS 31-44 (3.92 RPG / 4.01 RA)

4 - 2

COL 30-48 (4.56 RPG / 5.72 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 4-2 TARGET: BOS 3 - 2 COL (BOS) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	4	9
COL	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	8

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.250

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-134.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

COL Recent Form

Win%0.215

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff-240.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak

BOS Season Quality

Record31-44

Win%0.413

Run Diff-7

RD/Game-0.093

COL Season Quality

Record30-48

Win%0.385

Run Diff-90

RD/Game-1.154

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.1036; margin adjustment: -0.4635; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Mickey Gasper	C	31	100	26	0.260	0	6	0.318	5	5	2	0	0	0	1	0.400	0.238	0.294	0.342	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	69	259	74	0.286	7	32	0.337	5	4	2	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.264	0.296	0.430	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	73	284	78	0.275	9	36	0.334	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.248	0.312	0.428	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	71	259	73	0.282	16	44	0.376	5	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.242	0.313	0.445	OK
Jarren Duran	LF	70	284	58	0.204	12	37	0.262	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.195	0.248	0.342	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	66	219	47	0.215	5	29	0.269	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.269	0.305	0.491	OK
Masataka Yoshida	DH	48	146	36	0.247	1	10	0.315	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.162	0.218	0.249	OK
Anthony Seigler	2B	4	11	2	0.182	0	0	0.250	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.122	0.193	0.250	OK
Marcelo Mayer	SS	65	195	43	0.221	3	22	0.286	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.141	0.215	0.227	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	9	4	4	3	7	0.250

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Willi Castro	2B	65	229	63	0.275	5	32	0.350	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.252	0.321	0.389	OK
Tyler Freeman	RF	47	164	44	0.268	3	20	0.348	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.171	0.210	0.264	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	72	262	74	0.282	12	41	0.359	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.273	0.337	0.530	OK
Hunter Goodman	C	72	272	66	0.243	21	39	0.312	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.212	0.266	0.437	OK
Cole Carrigg	CF	12	40	10	0.250	3	8	0.388	5	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.246	0.365	0.458	OK
Jake McCarthy	LF	57	200	59	0.295	5	27	0.332	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.280	0.318	0.456	OK
Braxton Fulford	DH	20	34	8	0.235	1	7	0.333	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.139	0.264	0.280	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	69	250	54	0.216	5	24	0.263	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.205	0.249	0.318	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	71	212	53	0.250	4	21	0.343	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.262	0.342	0.426	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	35	8	2	2	5	6	0.229

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jake Bennett	Starter	4	20.2	4.90	1.287	5.8	13	5.0	6	2	2	4	4	104	5.0	4	2
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	22	21.2	0.85	0.991	12.3	29	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	23	22.2	2.84	1.036	11.4	28	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	17	12.1	7.44	1.901	14.1	19	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	16	0.2	1	0
Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever	31	25.1	3.94	1.394	10.8	30	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Feltner	Starter	9	39.6	5.23	1.338	7.5	33	4.2	4	2	2	2	4	79	4.2	4	2
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	22	35.9	2.51	1.198	8.3	33	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	19	1.1	1	0
Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	31	28.3	8.27	2.120	11.8	37	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	22	1.0	1	1
Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	19	17.8	7.08	2.135	8.1	16	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	20	1.1	1	1
Brennan Bernardino	Middle Reliever	36	23.1	5.06	1.861	9.4	24	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	15	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

BOS wins 4-2

Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets

CHC 40-37 (4.75 RPG / 4.48 RA)

5 - 1

NYM 34-43 (4.04 RPG / 4.44 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 5-1 TARGET: CHC 4 - 2 NYM (CHC) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	3	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	8
NYM	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	6

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.129

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-182.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.333

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-147.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CHC Season Quality

Record40-37

Win%0.519

Run Diff21

RD/Game0.273

NYM Season Quality

Record34-43

Win%0.442

Run Diff-31

RD/Game-0.403

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.7922; margin adjustment: -0.3327; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	76	286	83	0.290	16	40	0.367	5	3	2	1	3	2	0	0.667	0.321	0.382	0.631	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	71	236	44	0.186	8	31	0.296	5	4	1	1	0	1	3	0.250	0.219	0.325	0.372	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	74	300	71	0.237	4	35	0.311	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.222	0.290	0.313	OK
Michael Busch	1B	75	271	68	0.251	8	42	0.381	5	5	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.239	0.361	0.378	OK
Carson Kelly	C	53	177	50	0.282	4	25	0.359	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.270	0.341	0.444	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	75	296	75	0.253	6	25	0.347	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.250	0.351	0.352	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	62	227	61	0.269	10	31	0.358	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.288	0.376	0.447	OK
Ian Happ	LF	72	272	63	0.232	16	37	0.342	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	0.333	0.231	0.328	0.419	OK
Matt Shaw	RF	43	117	30	0.256	4	18	0.302	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.242	0.288	0.442	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	35	8	5	5	5	14	0.229

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
A.J. Ewing	LF	37	124	33	0.266	2	13	0.343	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.254	0.325	0.384	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	76	308	76	0.247	8	42	0.289	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.254	0.292	0.383	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	76	275	61	0.222	9	29	0.279	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.227	0.285	0.353	OK
Jared Young	1B	29	88	21	0.239	4	9	0.302	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.134	0.194	0.246	OK
Francisco Alvarez	C	45	147	36	0.245	5	13	0.313	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.253	0.312	0.373	OK
Brett Baty	3B	67	220	49	0.223	3	26	0.291	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.186	0.251	0.279	OK
Carson Benge	OF	72	271	70	0.258	9	29	0.319	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.243	0.293	0.420	OK
Juan Soto	LF	59	216	66	0.306	17	38	0.401	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.294	0.392	0.552	OK
MJ Melendez	DH	49	110	21	0.191	4	11	0.308	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.177	0.276	0.312	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	6	1	1	1	5	0.182

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shota Imanaga	Starter	15	85.5	4.32	1.076	8.8	84	5.2	4	1	1	1	5	89	5.2	5	1
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	33	28.6	4.41	1.538	12.3	39	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	22	15.8	5.70	1.519	13.1	23	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.2	0	0
Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	28	19.2	7.50	2.240	12.7	27	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	17	0.2	0	0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kodai Senga	Starter	6	22.6	9.56	1.991	11.2	28	3.2	6	5	5	3	8	88	3.2	8	5
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	26	22.7	4.36	1.454	15.1	38	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	30	29.9	2.41	0.936	9.9	33	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	31	23.1	2.34	1.515	12.1	31	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	23	1.0	2	0
Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	32	31.6	2.28	1.139	9.4	33	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	30	1.1	1	0
A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever	10	7.6	0.00	0.658	8.3	7	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

CHC wins 5-1

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox

CLE 41-37 (3.97 RPG / 4.06 RA)

5 - 4

CHW 39-37 (4.64 RPG / 4.7 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 5-4 TARGET: CLE 5 - 4 CHW (CLE) Confidence: 55.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R	H
CLE	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	5	10
CHW	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	6

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.254

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed2.7

Run Diff-122.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.338

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed2.3

Run Diff-73.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CLE Season Quality

Record41-37

Win%0.526

Run Diff-7

RD/Game-0.090

CHW Season Quality

Record39-37

Win%0.513

Run Diff-4

RD/Game-0.053

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0184; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Travis Bazzana	2B	47	172	47	0.273	7	24	0.367	6	5	2	1	1	1	0	0.400	0.285	0.368	0.532	OK
David Fry	LF	43	102	23	0.225	4	9	0.325	6	6	1	1	1	0	0	0.167	0.221	0.319	0.404	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	74	245	66	0.269	5	33	0.343	6	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.247	0.306	0.369	OK
Rhys Hoskins	1B	58	178	31	0.174	7	25	0.302	6	4	1	1	1	1	2	0.250	0.185	0.293	0.369	OK
Kyle Manzardo	DH	67	210	50	0.238	9	26	0.324	6	6	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.253	0.323	0.448	OK
Gabriel Arias	3B	13	44	10	0.227	2	5	0.261	5	5	1	1	1	0	3	0.200	0.246	0.281	0.410	OK
Stuart Fairchild	RF	8	16	3	0.188	0	1	0.409	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.127	0.318	0.181	OK
Austin Hedges	C	33	100	26	0.260	1	9	0.324	5	4	3	0	0	1	1	0.750	0.245	0.307	0.359	OK
Petey Halpin	CF	18	41	7	0.171	0	1	0.190	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.121	0.147	0.238	OK
TEAM TOTALS									50	42	10	5	5	5	9	0.238

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Sam Antonacci	LF	57	195	56	0.287	4	19	0.386	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0.200	0.276	0.328	0.487	OK
Miguel Vargas	1B	74	271	64	0.236	16	44	0.351	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.216	0.306	0.379	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	69	214	50	0.234	9	37	0.292	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.223	0.279	0.461	OK
Kyle Teel	C	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	5	4	0	1	1	1	1	0.000	0.231	0.293	0.381
Colson Montgomery	3B	73	267	59	0.221	20	45	0.316	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.223	0.298	0.507	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	73	277	75	0.271	6	25	0.336	5	5	2	1	3	0	1	0.400	0.243	0.300	0.358	OK
Braden Montgomery	RF	11	39	9	0.231	1	4	0.268	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.224	0.264	0.371	OK
Tristan Peters	CF	67	190	55	0.289	3	24	0.346	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.157	0.218	0.300	OK
Luisangel Acuña	SS	45	121	25	0.207	0	8	0.258	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.234	0.274	0.295	OK
TEAM TOTALS									43	39	6	4	4	4	11	0.154

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gavin Williams	Starter	15	90.5	3.88	1.149	10.2	103	6.0	4	4	4	4	8	104	6.0	8	4
Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	32	32.6	2.48	1.104	14.1	51	2.1	1	0	0	0	1	14	2.1	1	0
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	24	18.3	3.93	1.530	8.4	17	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Shawn Armstrong	Middle Reliever	22	17.4	2.07	1.264	11.9	23	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14	1.0	2	0
Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	25	24.4	1.84	0.902	11.4	31	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	14	0.2	0	0
Erik Sabrowski	Reliever	26	16.9	3.20	1.302	21.3	40	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	0.0	0	0
Matt Festa	Reliever	33	25.0	5.40	1.560	12.6	35	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	0.0	0	0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Anthony Kay	Starter	15	68.0	4.76	1.485	7.3	55	5.0	5	2	2	3	4	97	5.0	4	2
Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	2	1.1	16.36	3.636	0.0	0	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1
Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	1.48	1.311	11.8	8	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	18	1.0	2	0
Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1	2.1	8.57	1.905	4.3	1	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	33	1.0	0	1
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	24	20.9	1.72	1.483	9.9	23	2.0	0	0	0	1	2	29	2.0	2	0
Brandon Eisert	Middle Reliever	12	11.5	3.91	1.391	10.2	13	1.0	0	1	1	1	1	19	1.0	1	1

Game Summary

CLE wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 11)

Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays

HOU 37-42 (4.51 RPG / 5.03 RA)

1 - 2

TOR 38-39 (4.1 RPG / 4.43 RA)

WINNER: TOR wins 2-1 TARGET: HOU 1 - 2 TOR (TOR) Confidence: 52.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	6
TOR	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	x	2	8

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.364

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff-213.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.242

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-152.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

HOU Season Quality

Record37-42

Win%0.468

Run Diff-41

RD/Game-0.519

TOR Season Quality

Record38-39

Win%0.494

Run Diff-25

RD/Game-0.325

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.232; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	40	159	45	0.283	6	18	0.343	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.267	0.311	0.478	OK
Yordan Alvarez	LF	77	279	91	0.326	25	56	0.433	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.282	0.377	0.536	OK
Christian Walker	1B	77	287	70	0.244	18	52	0.317	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.223	0.291	0.406	OK
Isaac Paredes	DH	71	252	60	0.238	10	37	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.262	0.337	0.413	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	56	213	50	0.235	8	20	0.308	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.227	0.290	0.403	OK
Yainer Diaz	C	27	107	26	0.243	2	14	0.265	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.247	0.276	0.373	OK
Joey Loperfido	RF	27	79	19	0.241	0	7	0.322	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.224	0.301	0.359	OK
Jake Meyers	CF	36	119	25	0.210	3	11	0.269	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.193	0.250	0.310	OK
Raynel Delgado	3B	4	11	4	0.364	0	2	0.364	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.217	0.229	0.304	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	33	6	1	1	0	4	0.182

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
George Springer	DH	55	211	47	0.223	8	21	0.312	5	4	2	0	0	1	0	0.500	0.250	0.322	0.446	OK
Nathan Lukes	RF	42	134	41	0.306	2	14	0.352	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0.000	0.272	0.302	0.421	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	72	265	74	0.279	4	31	0.359	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.252	0.320	0.372	OK
Alejandro Kirk	C	11	40	8	0.200	1	5	0.273	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.219	0.285	0.350	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	60	215	55	0.256	6	20	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.229	0.295	0.409	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	74	271	62	0.229	16	45	0.310	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.219	0.295	0.437	OK
Jesús Sánchez	LF	69	206	58	0.282	7	29	0.318	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.166	0.207	0.298	OK
Ernie Clement	2B	75	291	85	0.292	7	28	0.311	4	4	2	0	0	0	2	0.500	0.228	0.251	0.356	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	72	241	56	0.232	7	33	0.274	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.246	0.268	0.407	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	8	2	2	4	5	0.250

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Hunter Brown	Starter	3	15.4	1.17	1.104	14.0	24	5.1	7	2	2	4	3	105	5.1	3	2
Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	8	8.0	1.12	0.375	14.6	13	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Bryan King	Middle Reliever	30	27.9	2.90	1.470	8.1	25	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Dylan Cease	Starter	13	71.6	2.77	1.215	13.8	110	6.0	4	1	1	0	4	100	6.0	4	1
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	37	38.5	0.94	1.013	13.3	57	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	4	1.1	0	0
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	37	32.4	1.94	1.235	5.6	20	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	5	1.0	0	0
Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	36	30.3	5.64	1.650	16.0	54	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	15	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

TOR wins 2-1

Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays

KC 33-46 (4.22 RPG / 4.76 RA)

2 - 3

TB 43-32 (4.37 RPG / 4.28 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 3-2 TARGET: KC 1 - 3 TB (TB) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	7
TB	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	3	9

KC Recent Form

Win%0.179

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff-182.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TB Recent Form

Win%0.197

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff-136.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

KC Season Quality

Record32-46

Win%0.410

Run Diff-44

RD/Game-0.564

TB Season Quality

Record43-31

Win%0.581

Run Diff8

RD/Game0.108

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9284; margin adjustment: 0.3899; applied: True

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	C	69	237	58	0.245	10	39	0.313	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.279	0.343	0.493	OK
Maikel Garcia	SS	66	260	69	0.265	3	30	0.320	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	0.250	0.237	0.291	0.351	OK
Jac Caglianone	1B	71	241	65	0.270	12	27	0.343	5	5	0	1	1	0	3	0.000	0.177	0.247	0.386	OK
Salvador Perez	DH	71	279	59	0.211	10	28	0.256	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.231	0.258	0.365	OK
Michael Massey	2B	57	173	46	0.266	7	27	0.286	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.170	0.201	0.319	OK
Lane Thomas	CF	58	160	37	0.231	5	20	0.347	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.239	0.342	0.421	OK
John Rave	RF	3	7	3	0.429	1	1	0.556	4	2	0	0	0	2	2	0.000	0.144	0.307	0.701	OK
Nick Loftin	3B	40	117	28	0.239	2	22	0.333	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.239	0.326	0.449	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	66	213	48	0.225	3	23	0.337	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.235	0.321	0.342	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	34	7	2	2	5	12	0.206

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	71	273	89	0.326	12	49	0.406	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.308	0.376	0.441	OK
Jonny DeLuca	CF	39	127	35	0.276	4	22	0.303	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.267	0.293	0.494	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	73	265	73	0.275	12	51	0.379	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.264	0.355	0.422	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	74	279	78	0.280	15	34	0.373	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.274	0.364	0.425	OK
Ryan Vilade	RF	42	115	33	0.287	5	25	0.344	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.270	0.331	0.490	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	68	267	70	0.262	0	15	0.294	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.151	0.187	0.207	OK
Ben Williamson	SS	53	164	40	0.244	1	18	0.311	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.223	0.279	0.334	OK
Nick Fortes	C	56	172	43	0.250	1	14	0.293	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.221	0.247	0.316	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	51	149	35	0.235	1	21	0.343	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.144	0.249	0.248	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	9	3	3	1	5	0.273

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael Wacha	Starter	15	93.3	3.67	1.179	6.9	72	6.1	6	2	2	1	4	102	6.1	4	2
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	32	31.2	4.33	1.538	10.1	35	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	4	1.0	1	0
Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	29	26.8	4.70	1.754	8.1	24	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	10	0.0	0	0
Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	32	28.5	2.84	1.088	9.5	30	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	15	0.2	0	1

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Drew Rasmussen	Starter	14	79.3	2.61	0.883	9.5	84	6.0	4	1	1	2	9	108	6.0	9	1
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	32	29.4	1.84	0.918	10.1	33	1.0	1	1	1	2	1	31	1.0	1	1
Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	33	29.3	3.07	1.092	8.6	28	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	22	17.7	5.08	1.469	13.7	27	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

TB wins 3-2

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins

LAD 49-29 (5.19 RPG / 3.49 RA)

4 - 2

MIN 38-41 (4.91 RPG / 5.14 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 4-2 TARGET: LAD 4 - 3 MIN (LAD) Confidence: 52.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	4	5
MIN	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	7

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.290

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff-116.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.235

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff-177.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

LAD Season Quality

Record49-29

Win%0.628

Run Diff133

RD/Game1.705

MIN Season Quality

Record38-41

Win%0.481

Run Diff-18

RD/Game-0.228

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.1538; margin adjustment: -0.9046; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	70	263	78	0.297	16	43	0.418	5	3	0	0	0	2	2	0.000	0.266	0.381	0.569	OK
Andy Pages	CF	77	298	80	0.268	15	57	0.318	5	4	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.252	0.306	0.421	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	75	282	77	0.273	12	40	0.364	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.252	0.342	0.449	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	42	170	37	0.218	8	19	0.276	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.256	0.309	0.428	OK
Max Muncy	3B	71	230	61	0.265	16	31	0.369	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.255	0.358	0.453	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	74	273	64	0.234	6	40	0.331	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.235	0.326	0.365	OK
Tommy Edman	2B	4	13	5	0.385	0	0	0.429	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.284	0.336	0.440	OK
Dalton Rushing	C	43	134	34	0.254	8	22	0.338	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.225	0.295	0.386	OK
Ryan Ward	LF	17	48	11	0.229	3	11	0.302	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.239	0.315	0.447	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	32	5	4	4	6	10	0.156

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trevor Larnach	LF	61	199	56	0.281	5	23	0.370	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.212	0.290	0.371	OK
Byron Buxton	CF	67	276	76	0.275	24	40	0.334	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.259	0.310	0.504	OK
Kody Clemens	RF	65	235	57	0.243	11	29	0.305	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.155	0.206	0.320	OK
Josh Bell	DH	76	276	69	0.250	9	48	0.306	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0.667	0.278	0.332	0.453	OK
Royce Lewis	1B	45	158	32	0.203	7	21	0.289	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	0.333	0.221	0.296	0.394	OK
Victor Caratini	C	55	174	42	0.241	5	29	0.335	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.293	0.374	0.482	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	72	273	66	0.242	12	43	0.295	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.236	0.285	0.415	OK
Luke Keaschall	2B	72	259	66	0.255	2	24	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.257	0.336	0.355	OK
Ryan Kreidler	SS	31	78	23	0.295	4	18	0.368	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.289	0.363	0.512	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	33	7	2	2	5	6	0.212

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eric Lauer	Starter	4	21.4	3.36	1.075	5.9	14	5.0	5	2	2	4	6	94	5.0	6	2
Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	33	28.9	2.49	0.761	11.8	38	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	19	1.1	0	0
Will Klein	Middle Reliever	26	26.6	2.71	1.541	10.8	32	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	20	1.0	0	0
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	34	19.5	3.23	1.385	15.7	34	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	14	0.2	0	0
Edgardo Henriquez	Middle Reliever	28	27.1	3.32	1.107	10.3	31	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zebby Matthews	Starter	7	43.1	4.80	1.183	7.1	34	6.0	2	2	2	4	7	104	6.0	7	2
Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	22	16.4	1.65	1.159	12.1	22	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Anthony Banda	Middle Reliever	36	24.3	5.56	1.646	10.7	29	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Travis Adams	Middle Reliever	13	16.6	8.13	1.747	13.0	24	1.0	1	2	2	1	1	23	1.0	1	2
Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	32	20.9	5.60	1.914	10.3	24	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	13	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 4-2

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds

MIL 47-29 (5.25 RPG / 3.67 RA)

6 - 2

CIN 37-40 (4.23 RPG / 4.84 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 6-2 TARGET: MIL 7 - 2 CIN (MIL) Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	6	9
CIN	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.312

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed2.7

Run Diff-85.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.234

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff-176.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

MIL Season Quality

Record46-29

Win%0.613

Run Diff119

RD/Game1.587

CIN Season Quality

Record37-39

Win%0.487

Run Diff-46

RD/Game-0.605

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.3817; margin adjustment: -1.0003; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Christian Yelich	DH	43	170	45	0.265	5	24	0.344	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.244	0.320	0.399	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	41	176	53	0.301	10	30	0.354	5	5	1	1	0	0	4	0.200	0.264	0.313	0.495	OK
Brice Turang	2B	70	266	70	0.263	11	47	0.373	5	4	1	1	1	1	2	0.250	0.239	0.339	0.400	OK
William Contreras	C	70	278	83	0.299	7	46	0.356	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.294	0.353	0.431	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	64	223	61	0.274	13	46	0.372	5	2	1	1	1	3	0	0.500	0.252	0.345	0.439	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	62	202	49	0.243	4	29	0.336	5	4	2	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.246	0.327	0.414	OK
Sal Frelick	RF	67	218	51	0.234	3	27	0.300	5	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.272	0.329	0.379	OK
Joey Ortiz	SS	53	155	32	0.206	1	14	0.290	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.217	0.291	0.292	OK
David Hamilton	3B	57	176	41	0.233	3	12	0.308	4	4	1	1	3	0	2	0.250	0.240	0.303	0.351	OK
TEAM TOTALS									44	36	9	6	6	7	11	0.250

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Blake Dunn	CF	30	125	36	0.288	2	5	0.350	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.172	0.237	0.269	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	47	174	45	0.259	13	35	0.358	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.211	0.315	0.429	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	75	282	72	0.255	14	53	0.349	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.241	0.325	0.431	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	DH	55	163	42	0.258	8	24	0.349	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.165	0.269	0.301	OK
Spencer Steer	2B	72	256	62	0.242	12	31	0.322	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.208	0.279	0.415	OK
Eugenio Suárez	3B	48	176	37	0.210	7	25	0.267	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.209	0.258	0.390	OK
Noelvi Marte	RF	22	71	16	0.225	3	4	0.267	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.227	0.269	0.413	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	58	185	39	0.211	6	22	0.299	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.220	0.298	0.368	OK
Matt McLain	SS	68	245	50	0.204	8	25	0.306	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.182	0.282	0.304	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	4	2	2	3	8	0.129

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brandon Woodruff	Starter	6	29.3	3.69	1.058	7.7	25	5.0	3	2	2	3	4	84	5.0	4	2
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	27	27.0	2.67	1.000	12.3	37	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	29	25.0	3.96	1.280	10.4	29	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	34	40.9	3.52	1.516	13.6	62	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	11	1.1	2	0
Grant Anderson	Middle Reliever	29	25.4	3.90	1.260	8.5	24	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	20	0.2	1	0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brady Singer	Starter	14	64.6	5.43	1.641	7.2	52	4.1	6	5	5	3	5	100	4.1	5	5
Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	32	27.9	4.19	1.362	9.0	28	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	1.0	2	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	37	30.4	3.55	1.711	9.2	31	1.1	0	0	0	3	0	29	1.1	0	0
Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	18	17.8	3.03	1.067	8.6	17	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	25	1.1	2	0
Sam Moll	Middle Reliever	33	25.4	3.90	1.378	12.0	34	1.0	3	1	1	0	2	22	1.0	2	1

Game Summary

MIL wins 6-2

New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers

NYY 46-31 (5.09 RPG / 3.66 RA)

3 - 2

DET 34-44 (4.09 RPG / 4.13 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 3-2 TARGET: NYY 4 - 1 DET (NYY) Confidence: 62.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	8
DET	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	6

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.267

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed2.5

Run Diff-71.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

DET Recent Form

Win%0.333

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-116.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

NYY Season Quality

Record46-30

Win%0.605

Run Diff112

RD/Game1.474

DET Season Quality

Record33-44

Win%0.429

Run Diff-5

RD/Game-0.065

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.8037; margin adjustment: -0.7575; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Amed Rosario	3B	38	112	28	0.250	6	19	0.289	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.239	0.284	0.398	OK
Ben Rice	DH	70	263	77	0.293	22	52	0.389	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.271	0.361	0.550	OK
Paul Goldschmidt	1B	49	180	52	0.289	12	37	0.345	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.266	0.313	0.511	OK
Cody Bellinger	CF	75	275	76	0.276	11	49	0.370	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.276	0.370	0.471	OK
Anthony Volpe	SS	27	89	23	0.258	1	13	0.371	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.276	0.390	0.420	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	72	261	59	0.226	11	31	0.306	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.225	0.305	0.443	OK
Jasson Domínguez	RF	15	58	14	0.241	2	5	0.279	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.238	0.266	0.402	OK
José Caballero	LF	63	210	55	0.262	7	26	0.320	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.255	0.307	0.411	OK
Ali Sánchez	C	8	17	5	0.294	0	2	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.243	0.285	0.374	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	3	3	2	11	0.229

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kevin McGonigle	3B	73	271	77	0.284	6	26	0.396	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.248	0.356	0.420	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	69	256	70	0.273	18	55	0.340	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.273	0.316	0.509	OK
Kerry Carpenter	RF	54	151	34	0.225	10	29	0.302	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.217	0.277	0.424	OK
Riley Greene	LF	76	275	81	0.295	8	33	0.386	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.238	0.327	0.365	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	75	254	52	0.205	12	29	0.306	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.204	0.296	0.382	OK
Colt Keith	DH	68	202	52	0.257	4	15	0.306	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.244	0.279	0.483	OK
James Outman	CF	5	13	3	0.231	1	2	0.231	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.116	0.160	0.246	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	2B	38	104	24	0.231	2	10	0.259	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.238	0.265	0.382	OK
Zach McKinstry	SS	49	144	26	0.181	2	11	0.273	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.193	0.288	0.303	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	33	6	2	2	0	6	0.182

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gerrit Cole	Starter	5	27.3	2.64	1.026	7.9	24	5.2	4	1	1	0	5	83	5.2	5	1
David Bednar	Middle Reliever	30	28.8	3.75	1.424	11.9	38	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	10	1.1	0	0
Camilo Doval	Middle Reliever	33	24.9	6.14	1.446	10.1	28	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	36	23.8	3.03	1.681	15.5	41	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Framber Valdez	Starter	15	82.5	4.15	1.370	7.3	67	5.2	4	2	2	1	8	101	5.2	8	2
Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	20	16.6	3.25	1.084	11.9	22	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Will Vest	Middle Reliever	25	21.3	6.76	1.596	9.7	23	1.1	3	1	1	1	1	32	1.1	1	1
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	33	31.7	1.70	1.609	6.2	22	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 3-2

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals

PHI 42-35 (4.27 RPG / 4.32 RA)

3 - 2

WAS 40-38 (5.33 RPG / 5.18 RA)

WINNER: PHI wins 3-2 TARGET: PHI 3 - 2 WAS (PHI) Confidence: 52.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	3	7
WAS	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	3

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.194

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-113.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.262

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff-143.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

PHI Season Quality

Record42-35

Win%0.545

Run Diff-4

RD/Game-0.052

WAS Season Quality

Record40-38

Win%0.513

Run Diff12

RD/Game0.154

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1568; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trea Turner	SS	72	300	69	0.230	7	22	0.280	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0.200	0.235	0.278	0.328	OK
Kyle Schwarber	DH	73	280	71	0.254	28	51	0.365	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.273	0.366	0.638	OK
Bryce Harper	1B	75	263	70	0.266	17	44	0.373	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.281	0.385	0.560	OK
Alec Bohm	3B	72	267	62	0.232	9	40	0.285	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.259	0.303	0.404	OK
Edmundo Sosa	LF	42	118	28	0.237	4	19	0.270	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.175	0.191	0.303	OK
Brandon Marsh	RF	71	257	80	0.311	9	35	0.345	4	4	3	1	2	0	0	0.750	0.252	0.289	0.413	OK
Derek Hill	CF	5	16	4	0.250	0	1	0.250	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.143	0.175	0.225	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	70	242	57	0.236	6	35	0.293	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.247	0.302	0.393	OK
Rafael Marchán	C	23	72	7	0.097	2	6	0.133	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.169	0.184	0.277	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	34	7	3	3	4	6	0.206

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	RF	78	296	80	0.270	20	49	0.398	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.237	0.347	0.460	OK
Curtis Mead	3B	62	189	43	0.228	11	34	0.336	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.145	0.248	0.311	OK
Dylan Crews	LF	27	105	21	0.200	5	16	0.236	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.224	0.240	0.398	OK
CJ Abrams	SS	76	283	81	0.286	17	57	0.367	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.266	0.322	0.531	OK
Jacob Young	CF	66	232	53	0.228	8	28	0.275	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.220	0.259	0.359	OK
Daylen Lile	DH	77	302	76	0.252	8	37	0.311	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.220	0.270	0.348	OK
Keibert Ruiz	C	48	157	44	0.280	6	29	0.299	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.276	0.295	0.467	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	72	239	62	0.259	10	46	0.282	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.161	0.186	0.320	OK
Nasim Nuñez	2B	67	216	51	0.236	0	24	0.320	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.286	0.362	0.397	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	30	3	2	2	4	6	0.100

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tim Mayza	Starter	29	30.3	3.27	1.089	9.8	33	5.0	1	0	0	1	4	70	5.0	4	0
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	26	25.2	1.07	0.873	14.3	40	1.1	1	2	2	1	1	24	1.1	1	2
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	31	26.1	2.41	1.264	11.0	32	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	20	1.0	0	0
José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	33	22.1	7.74	2.081	14.7	36	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	19	1.2	1	0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Foster Griffin	Starter	15	83.3	3.35	1.116	8.6	80	5.2	6	2	2	3	5	101	5.2	5	2
Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	21	20.7	3.91	1.401	10.9	25	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	22	19.7	3.65	1.218	7.3	16	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	23	47.5	2.46	1.074	8.3	44	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	31	1.1	0	0

Game Summary

PHI wins 3-2

Texas Rangers @ Miami Marlins

TEX 38-40 (4.01 RPG / 4.14 RA)

2 - 1

MIA 40-39 (4.29 RPG / 4.3 RA)

WINNER: TEX wins 2-1 TARGET: TEX 2 - 1 MIA (TEX) Confidence: 53.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	10
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	5

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.302

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff-137.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.250

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff-128.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

TEX Season Quality

Record37-40

Win%0.481

Run Diff-11

RD/Game-0.143

MIA Season Quality

Record40-38

Win%0.513

Run Diff0

RD/Game0.000

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1913; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Joc Pederson	DH	71	198	45	0.227	9	25	0.330	5	3	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.136	0.239	0.262	OK
Wyatt Langford	CF	35	140	38	0.271	6	16	0.315	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.279	0.322	0.522	OK
Josh Jung	3B	72	278	86	0.309	8	31	0.368	5	5	2	1	1	0	2	0.400	0.277	0.331	0.395	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	75	291	76	0.261	7	26	0.328	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.259	0.306	0.409	OK
Jake Burger	1B	75	277	70	0.253	13	46	0.310	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.253	0.306	0.434	OK
Ezequiel Duran	SS	66	226	61	0.270	5	38	0.329	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.144	0.222	0.277	OK
Alejandro Osuna	LF	42	109	27	0.248	0	11	0.354	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.241	0.301	0.315	OK
Elias Díaz	C	8	22	8	0.364	0	4	0.364	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.233	0.254	0.408	OK
Nicky Lopez	2B	20	57	19	0.333	1	5	0.367	4	4	2	0	0	0	2	0.500	0.176	0.203	0.235	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	37	10	2	2	4	11	0.270

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Heriberto Hernández	LF	47	146	34	0.233	7	28	0.289	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.244	0.293	0.432	OK
Otto Lopez	SS	77	304	101	0.332	5	33	0.364	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.270	0.307	0.400	OK
Kyle Stowers	1B	54	197	44	0.223	8	28	0.319	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.244	0.328	0.511	OK
Xavier Edwards	2B	77	283	81	0.286	6	26	0.369	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.230	0.317	0.343	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	75	263	54	0.205	4	19	0.327	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.229	0.322	0.368	OK
Esteury Ruiz	RF	32	73	19	0.260	4	9	0.312	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.171	0.213	0.384	OK
Griffin Conine	DH	10	26	6	0.231	2	4	0.286	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.135	0.197	0.274	OK
Javier Sanoja	3B	53	170	42	0.247	2	24	0.285	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.213	0.250	0.327	OK
Joe Mack	C	36	109	27	0.248	3	16	0.311	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.253	0.315	0.423	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	5	1	1	4	5	0.156

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tyler Alexander	Starter	31	25.9	3.47	1.737	8.0	23	4.1	4	1	1	4	2	89	4.1	2	1
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	27	33.8	0.80	0.503	9.6	36	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	21	1.2	2	0
Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	27	29.9	2.11	0.970	6.9	23	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	25	2.0	1	0
Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	27	19.6	6.89	1.684	11.9	26	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tyler Phillips	Starter	20	50.0	3.24	1.440	8.1	45	5.1	6	2	2	3	5	109	5.1	5	2
Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	24	20.6	6.55	1.408	13.5	31	1.0	2	0	0	1	3	23	1.0	3	0
Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	32	27.0	3.67	1.778	11.3	34	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Anthony Bender	Middle Reliever	32	25.5	3.53	1.176	12.7	36	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	30	29.3	3.69	1.126	11.7	38	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	19	0.2	1	0

Game Summary

TEX wins 2-1

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals

ARI Recent Form

STL Recent Form

ARI Season Quality

STL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres

ATL Recent Form

SD Recent Form

ATL Season Quality

SD Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels

BAL Recent Form

LAA Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

LAA Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Boston Red Sox @ Colorado Rockies

BOS Recent Form

COL Recent Form

BOS Season Quality

COL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets

CHC Recent Form

NYM Recent Form

CHC Season Quality

NYM Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox

CLE Recent Form

CHW Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

CHW Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays

HOU Recent Form

TOR Recent Form

HOU Season Quality

TOR Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays