MLB Predictions — June 20, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
BAL @ LAD	1 - 5	1 - 6	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 6-1	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
BOS @ SEA	6 - 5	7 - 2	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 7-2	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CHW @ DET	1 - 3	1 - 4	DET	DET	DET wins 4-1	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CIN @ NYY	4 - 5	3 - 5	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 5-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CLE @ HOU	5 - 3	6 - 3	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 6-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
LAA @ OAK	2 - 1	2 - 1	LAA	LAA	LAA wins 2-1	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIL @ ATL	1 - 2	1 - 4	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 4-1	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIN @ ARI	5 - 4	6 - 4	MIN	MIN	MIN wins 6-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
NYM @ PHI	1 - 2	1 - 2	PHI	PHI	PHI wins 2-1	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
PIT @ COL	6 - 1	6 - 2	PIT	PIT	PIT wins 6-2	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SD @ TEX	3 - 1	4 - 1	SD	SD	SD wins 4-1	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SF @ MIA	1 - 3	1 - 3	MIA	MIA	MIA wins 3-1	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TOR @ CHC	5 - 4	5 - 4	TOR	TOR	TOR wins 5-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
WAS @ TB	3 - 2	5 - 2	WAS	WAS	WAS wins 5-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Dodgers

BAL 35-42 (4.6 RPG / 5.08 RA)

1 - 6

LAD 49-27 (5.29 RPG / 3.38 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 6-1 TARGET: BAL 1 - 5 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 55.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	7
LAD	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	1	x	6	9

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.224

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-170.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.306

Avg Runs1.5

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-92.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

BAL Season Quality

Record35-41

Win%0.461

Run Diff-36

RD/Game-0.474

LAD Season Quality

Record48-27

Win%0.640

Run Diff144

RD/Game1.920

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.6629; margin adjustment: 1.1184; applied: True

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Taylor Ward	LF	74	275	70	0.255	3	19	0.393	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.218	0.335	0.312	OK
Gunnar Henderson	DH	74	306	68	0.222	15	37	0.291	4	4	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.208	0.267	0.401	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	75	285	72	0.253	17	49	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.228	0.304	0.433	OK
Samuel Basallo	C	62	208	53	0.255	10	30	0.314	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.224	0.282	0.369	OK
Leody Taveras	RF	61	197	49	0.249	2	29	0.323	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.143	0.213	0.260	OK
Colton Cowser	CF	59	150	34	0.227	6	20	0.314	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.219	0.307	0.340	OK
Coby Mayo	3B	55	180	36	0.200	9	26	0.264	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.200	0.251	0.357	OK
Jackson Holliday	2B	27	81	17	0.210	4	12	0.290	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.210	0.292	0.399	OK
Blaze Alexander	SS	52	156	48	0.308	2	19	0.359	3	3	2	0	0	0	1	0.667	0.271	0.315	0.403	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	34	7	1	1	1	8	0.206

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	68	257	76	0.296	15	42	0.418	5	5	1	1	1	0	3	0.200	0.266	0.391	0.567	OK
Andy Pages	CF	75	292	79	0.271	15	57	0.317	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.248	0.293	0.419	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	73	276	76	0.275	12	40	0.366	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.268	0.359	0.491	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	40	163	35	0.215	8	19	0.271	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.259	0.307	0.457	OK
Miguel Rojas	2B	43	108	29	0.269	2	12	0.305	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.293	0.336	0.470	OK
Tommy Edman	3B	2	8	3	0.375	0	0	0.444	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.267	0.343	0.460	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	72	265	64	0.242	6	40	0.340	4	2	2	1	3	2	0	1.000	0.267	0.360	0.427	OK
Alex Call	LF	36	89	23	0.258	0	14	0.362	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.155	0.261	0.229	OK
Dalton Rushing	C	41	130	34	0.262	8	22	0.347	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.240	0.313	0.420	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	33	9	6	6	5	8	0.273

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trevor Rogers	Starter	13	63.2	6.12	1.519	6.8	48	4.2	6	4	4	2	6	98	4.2	6	4
Ryan Helsley	Middle Reliever	14	11.4	5.53	1.754	13.4	17	1.2	1	1	1	2	0	44	1.2	0	1
Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	33	27.4	1.97	0.803	10.8	33	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	20	15.0	6.60	1.600	9.6	16	0.2	1	1	1	1	1	15	0.2	1	1

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Starter	13	84.5	2.56	0.852	8.5	80	7.0	3	0	0	1	7	112	7.0	7	0
Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	33	28.9	2.49	0.761	11.8	38	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Will Klein	Middle Reliever	26	26.6	2.71	1.541	10.8	32	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	16	0.2	0	1
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	33	18.5	3.41	1.405	15.6	32	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	12	0.1	1	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-1

Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners

BOS 30-43 (3.95 RPG / 4.07 RA)

7 - 2

SEA 39-38 (4.18 RPG / 3.94 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 7-2 TARGET: BOS 6 - 5 SEA (BOS) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	0	1	0	1	0	0	5	0	0	7	12
SEA	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	9

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.203

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff-141.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.317

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-110.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

BOS Season Quality

Record29-43

Win%0.403

Run Diff-13

RD/Game-0.181

SEA Season Quality

Record39-37

Win%0.513

Run Diff23

RD/Game0.303

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6488; margin adjustment: 0.2725; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Anthony Seigler	2B	2	3	1	0.333	0	0	0.500	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.127	0.314	0.616	OK
Masataka Yoshida	DH	46	141	35	0.248	1	10	0.318	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.159	0.218	0.246	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	72	281	77	0.274	8	34	0.332	5	4	0	1	0	1	2	0.000	0.235	0.294	0.373	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	69	253	73	0.289	16	44	0.380	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.248	0.315	0.480	OK
Jarren Duran	LF	68	276	58	0.210	12	37	0.269	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.209	0.262	0.371	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	64	212	43	0.203	5	28	0.260	4	4	3	1	3	0	0	0.750	0.220	0.265	0.435	OK
Marcelo Mayer	SS	63	189	42	0.222	3	21	0.289	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.146	0.220	0.238	OK
Carlos Narváez	C	40	124	25	0.202	2	4	0.270	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.185	0.242	0.276	OK
Nate Eaton	CF	2	3	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.101	0.116	0.162
TEAM TOTALS									41	39	12	7	7	2	7	0.308

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
J.P. Crawford	3B	59	204	45	0.221	10	23	0.350	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.223	0.330	0.351	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	45	172	28	0.163	7	20	0.259	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.183	0.284	0.290	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	76	305	76	0.249	14	37	0.309	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.223	0.279	0.389	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	70	277	70	0.253	8	32	0.314	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.237	0.288	0.381	OK
Rob Refsnyder	RF	45	95	13	0.137	3	9	0.206	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.200	0.255	0.289	OK
Cole Young	2B	77	279	71	0.254	6	34	0.317	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.239	0.288	0.381	OK
Mitch Garver	DH	32	93	18	0.194	3	11	0.312	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.220	0.321	0.360	OK
Connor Joe	LF	15	37	7	0.189	1	3	0.268	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.195	0.273	0.332	OK
Colt Emerson	SS	27	88	20	0.227	6	16	0.299	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.218	0.274	0.417	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	36	9	2	2	5	7	0.250

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Connelly Early	Starter	14	73.1	3.94	1.368	8.9	72	5.2	5	1	1	4	2	114	5.2	2	1
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	22	21.2	0.85	0.991	12.3	29	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	27	1.0	2	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	22	21.2	2.97	1.085	11.5	27	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	17	12.1	7.44	1.901	14.1	19	0.2	2	0	0	1	2	18	0.2	2	0
Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever	31	25.1	3.94	1.394	10.8	30	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	15	0.2	0	1

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Emerson Hancock	Starter	14	79.2	3.30	1.023	8.5	75	5.2	8	2	2	0	6	103	5.2	6	2
Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	28	24.7	5.10	1.457	14.2	39	1.1	4	5	5	1	0	33	1.1	0	5
José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	34	27.6	3.26	1.558	8.8	27	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	15	0.2	0	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	35	27.5	2.62	1.564	9.5	29	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

BOS wins 7-2

Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers

CHW 39-36 (4.65 RPG / 4.69 RA)

1 - 4

DET 32-44 (4.07 RPG / 4.14 RA)

WINNER: DET wins 4-1 TARGET: CHW 1 - 3 DET (DET) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	5
DET	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	x	4	7

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.338

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed2.3

Run Diff-70.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

DET Recent Form

Win%0.318

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-113.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CHW Season Quality

Record39-35

Win%0.527

Run Diff0

RD/Game0.000

DET Season Quality

Record31-44

Win%0.413

Run Diff-9

RD/Game-0.120

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2905; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Sam Antonacci	2B	55	189	54	0.286	3	18	0.382	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.274	0.325	0.466	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	72	266	64	0.241	16	44	0.356	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.227	0.319	0.402	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	67	208	50	0.240	9	37	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.266	0.326	0.557	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	71	259	59	0.228	20	45	0.324	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.250	0.325	0.588	OK
Randal Grichuk	LF	30	65	19	0.292	6	17	0.333	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.247	0.287	0.449	OK
Jacob Gonzalez	1B	15	42	8	0.190	1	5	0.306	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.208	0.286	0.303	OK
Braden Montgomery	RF	9	32	6	0.188	1	4	0.212	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.201	0.228	0.331	OK
Tristan Peters	CF	65	186	53	0.285	3	22	0.342	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	0.667	0.155	0.210	0.317	OK
Drew Romo	C	26	86	13	0.151	5	11	0.237	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.100	0.178	0.208	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	5	1	1	4	11	0.156

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kevin McGonigle	3B	71	265	75	0.283	6	26	0.391	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.255	0.355	0.459	OK
Dillon Dingler	DH	67	247	66	0.267	16	51	0.337	4	4	3	1	2	0	0	0.750	0.280	0.326	0.497	OK
Matt Vierling	CF	55	180	34	0.189	5	24	0.250	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.118	0.180	0.253	OK
Riley Greene	LF	74	267	79	0.296	8	33	0.387	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.242	0.333	0.391	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	73	247	49	0.198	12	28	0.298	4	4	2	1	0	0	2	0.500	0.189	0.276	0.387	OK
Kerry Carpenter	RF	52	145	34	0.234	10	29	0.313	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.245	0.307	0.485	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	2B	36	98	23	0.235	2	10	0.265	3	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.267	0.294	0.405	OK
Jake Rogers	C	22	61	9	0.148	1	5	0.229	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.187	0.260	0.341	OK
Zach McKinstry	SS	47	140	24	0.171	2	10	0.258	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.187	0.272	0.305	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	31	7	4	4	2	4	0.226

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sean Newcomb	Starter	1	2.1	8.57	1.905	4.3	1	3.0	5	3	3	2	2	61	3.0	2	3
Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	2	1.1	16.36	3.636	0.0	0	1.1	2	1	1	0	1	9	1.1	1	1
Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	1.48	1.311	11.8	8	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	24	20.9	1.72	1.483	9.9	23	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0
Brandon Eisert	Middle Reliever	12	11.5	3.91	1.391	10.2	13	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Troy Melton	Starter	4	25.2	2.86	1.032	5.0	14	6.1	3	1	1	3	6	113	6.1	6	1
Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	19	15.6	3.46	1.026	12.7	22	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Will Vest	Middle Reliever	24	20.3	7.09	1.675	10.2	23	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	19	1.0	2	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	32	30.7	1.76	1.661	6.2	21	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	18	0.2	2	0

Game Summary

DET wins 4-1

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees

CIN 36-39 (4.28 RPG / 4.93 RA)

3 - 5

NYY 46-29 (5.17 RPG / 3.64 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 5-3 TARGET: CIN 4 - 5 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	5
NYY	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	x	5	6

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.203

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-189.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.322

Avg Runs1.5

Avg Allowed2.6

Run Diff-63.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CIN Season Quality

Record35-39

Win%0.473

Run Diff-57

RD/Game-0.770

NYY Season Quality

Record46-28

Win%0.622

Run Diff123

RD/Game1.662

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.6554; margin adjustment: 1.1153; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Blake Dunn	CF	28	116	32	0.276	2	5	0.333	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.150	0.206	0.254	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	45	166	44	0.265	13	35	0.367	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.223	0.332	0.485	OK
Sal Stewart	3B	73	274	69	0.252	14	47	0.349	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.225	0.318	0.408	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	DH	53	157	40	0.255	8	24	0.343	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.160	0.259	0.286	OK
Spencer Steer	1B	70	247	60	0.243	11	28	0.325	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.188	0.267	0.361	OK
Noelvi Marte	RF	20	63	13	0.206	3	3	0.242	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.213	0.248	0.406	OK
Matt McLain	SS	67	240	49	0.204	8	25	0.308	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.192	0.298	0.322	OK
Jose Trevino	C	12	36	6	0.167	0	2	0.189	4	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.181	0.206	0.264	OK
Edwin Arroyo	2B	13	42	8	0.190	0	2	0.255	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.179	0.217	0.256	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	5	3	3	4	6	0.156

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ben Rice	1B	68	255	75	0.294	21	51	0.391	4	3	1	1	1	1	2	0.333	0.285	0.375	0.579	OK
Amed Rosario	3B	36	107	27	0.252	6	19	0.287	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.333	0.259	0.296	0.454	OK
Paul Goldschmidt	DH	47	174	51	0.293	11	36	0.351	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.296	0.344	0.536	OK
Cody Bellinger	CF	73	268	73	0.272	11	49	0.367	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.276	0.368	0.475	OK
Jasson Domínguez	RF	13	51	11	0.216	2	5	0.259	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.241	0.274	0.454	OK
José Caballero	LF	61	204	54	0.265	7	25	0.318	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.272	0.311	0.462	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	70	253	58	0.229	11	31	0.311	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.232	0.321	0.472	OK
Anthony Volpe	SS	25	83	22	0.265	1	13	0.371	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.287	0.387	0.428	OK
Ali Sánchez	C	6	14	4	0.286	0	2	0.333	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.235	0.289	0.379	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	30	6	5	5	5	10	0.200

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andrew Abbott	Starter	15	77.8	4.05	1.440	6.7	58	5.0	4	2	2	2	9	95	5.0	9	2
Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	31	25.9	4.52	1.467	9.4	27	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	14	0.2	0	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	36	29.4	3.37	1.701	9.5	31	1.0	1	1	1	2	1	24	1.0	1	1
Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	17	15.8	3.42	1.203	9.1	16	1.1	1	2	2	1	0	24	1.1	0	2

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Will Warren	Starter	14	70.1	3.59	1.341	9.8	76	5.0	2	3	3	2	2	91	5.0	2	3
David Bednar	Middle Reliever	30	28.8	3.75	1.424	11.9	38	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Camilo Doval	Middle Reliever	32	23.9	6.03	1.381	9.8	26	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	20	1.0	2	0
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	35	23.6	3.05	1.695	15.6	41	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	37	27.4	2.30	1.642	12.5	38	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	9	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 5-3

Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros

CLE 40-36 (3.96 RPG / 4.13 RA)

6 - 3

HOU 36-41 (4.58 RPG / 5.04 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 6-3 TARGET: CLE 5 - 3 HOU (CLE) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	6	8
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	5

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.239

Avg Runs0.8

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-131.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.391

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff-202.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

CLE Season Quality

Record40-35

Win%0.533

Run Diff-7

RD/Game-0.093

HOU Season Quality

Record35-41

Win%0.461

Run Diff-41

RD/Game-0.539

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5554; margin adjustment: -0.2332; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Travis Bazzana	2B	45	164	42	0.256	5	18	0.356	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.239	0.337	0.415	OK
Kyle Manzardo	1B	65	202	47	0.233	8	23	0.322	5	5	1	1	3	0	2	0.200	0.230	0.308	0.393	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	72	237	65	0.274	5	33	0.349	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.244	0.307	0.370	OK
Rhys Hoskins	DH	56	173	31	0.179	7	25	0.310	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.188	0.299	0.371	OK
Daniel Schneemann	3B	59	189	42	0.222	6	26	0.297	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.218	0.291	0.417	OK
Kahlil Watson	RF	2	6	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	3	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.223	0.234	0.328
Steven Kwan	LF	66	236	50	0.212	1	13	0.319	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.202	0.305	0.263	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	18	57	11	0.193	1	5	0.230	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.208	0.256	0.304	OK
Petey Halpin	CF	16	35	5	0.143	0	1	0.167	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.111	0.140	0.187	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	8	6	6	3	6	0.235

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	38	152	44	0.289	6	18	0.351	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.264	0.312	0.465	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	75	274	90	0.328	24	55	0.433	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.294	0.381	0.517	OK
Christian Walker	1B	75	281	69	0.246	18	52	0.317	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.226	0.292	0.413	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	69	244	56	0.230	10	36	0.338	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.238	0.323	0.418	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	54	205	48	0.234	8	20	0.310	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.228	0.292	0.447	OK
Yainer Diaz	C	26	104	25	0.240	2	13	0.264	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.251	0.280	0.377	OK
Cam Smith	RF	74	254	57	0.224	7	26	0.307	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.246	0.313	0.393	OK
Jake Meyers	CF	35	116	25	0.216	3	11	0.276	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.209	0.267	0.350	OK
Brice Matthews	LF	58	168	34	0.202	6	17	0.250	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.214	0.262	0.393	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	5	3	3	4	10	0.156

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Joey Cantillo	Starter	15	69.9	4.51	1.531	8.6	67	4.1	4	3	3	1	8	96	4.1	8	3
Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	32	32.6	2.48	1.104	14.1	51	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	23	17.3	4.16	1.561	8.3	16	1.2	1	0	0	2	1	33	1.2	1	0
Shawn Armstrong	Middle Reliever	22	17.4	2.07	1.264	11.9	23	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	25	1.2	1	0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Spencer Arrighetti	Starter	11	62.3	2.60	1.236	8.7	60	6.0	2	3	3	2	5	95	6.0	5	3
Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	7	7.0	1.29	0.429	14.1	11	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Bryan King	Middle Reliever	29	26.9	3.01	1.524	8.0	24	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	27	22.0	7.36	2.000	13.5	33	1.0	5	3	3	1	0	32	1.0	0	3

Game Summary

CLE wins 6-3

Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics

LAA 30-47 (4.48 RPG / 5.06 RA)

2 - 1

OAK 38-38 (4.7 RPG / 5.29 RA)

WINNER: LAA wins 2-1 TARGET: LAA 2 - 1 OAK (LAA) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	3
OAK	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	4

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.328

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff-176.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.288

Avg Runs1.5

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff-168.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

LAA Season Quality

Record30-46

Win%0.395

Run Diff-44

RD/Game-0.579

OAK Season Quality

Record37-38

Win%0.493

Run Diff-46

RD/Game-0.613

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1135; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	74	293	66	0.225	16	35	0.327	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.221	0.299	0.469	OK
Nolan Schanuel	1B	58	217	55	0.253	5	26	0.322	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.237	0.302	0.376	OK
Vaughn Grissom	DH	41	141	34	0.241	4	26	0.319	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.246	0.311	0.417	OK
Jo Adell	RF	77	301	74	0.246	10	41	0.291	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.233	0.260	0.353	OK
Wade Meckler	LF	24	76	22	0.289	2	13	0.357	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.259	0.327	0.411	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	10	41	10	0.244	1	7	0.279	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.240	0.281	0.392	OK
Donovan Walton	2B	18	62	20	0.323	2	7	0.354	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.279	0.312	0.492	OK
Jose Siri	CF	23	56	16	0.286	4	15	0.344	3	3	2	1	0	0	1	0.667	0.222	0.276	0.433	OK
Tyler Heineman	C	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.190	0.217	0.305
TEAM TOTALS									32	30	3	2	2	2	7	0.100

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Nick Kurtz	1B	75	272	78	0.287	18	58	0.436	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.275	0.410	0.539	OK
Shea Langeliers	C	69	288	79	0.274	19	40	0.338	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.246	0.300	0.463	OK
Tyler Soderstrom	LF	73	267	65	0.243	13	40	0.343	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.254	0.354	0.487	OK
Jacob Wilson	SS	46	188	54	0.287	4	26	0.315	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.266	0.302	0.402	OK
Jonah Heim	DH	21	61	17	0.279	5	8	0.323	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.292	0.346	0.553	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	63	187	36	0.193	5	20	0.274	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.256	0.325	0.415	OK
Henry Bolte	CF	31	104	33	0.317	2	9	0.392	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	0.500	0.281	0.351	0.436	OK
Max Muncy	3B	34	115	27	0.235	4	16	0.295	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.223	0.266	0.469	OK
Jeff McNeil	2B	68	219	51	0.233	3	19	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.232	0.301	0.358	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	31	4	1	1	4	9	0.129

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Walbert Urena	Starter	13	61.4	2.64	1.368	8.5	58	6.0	1	0	0	0	6	90	6.0	6	0
Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	15	12.5	3.60	1.200	12.2	17	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	10	1.0	0	1
Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	27	29.7	4.24	1.414	10.6	35	1.0	0	0	0	2	2	21	1.0	2	0
Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever	33	22.2	2.84	1.712	12.2	30	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	21	1.0	1	0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
J.T. Ginn	Starter	16	75.0	3.00	1.200	8.2	68	6.1	1	2	2	1	6	88	6.1	6	2
Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	16	15.9	5.66	1.321	12.5	22	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	24	1.2	0	0
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	38	28.2	3.83	1.950	13.7	43	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

LAA wins 2-1

Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves

MIL 45-29 (5.24 RPG / 3.7 RA)

1 - 4

ATL 48-28 (4.93 RPG / 3.66 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 4-1 TARGET: MIL 1 - 2 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4
ATL	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	x	4	7

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.306

Avg Runs1.5

Avg Allowed2.6

Run Diff-72.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.274

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-120.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIL Season Quality

Record45-28

Win%0.616

Run Diff115

RD/Game1.575

ATL Season Quality

Record47-28

Win%0.627

Run Diff96

RD/Game1.280

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.28; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jackson Chourio	LF	39	167	51	0.305	10	28	0.361	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.261	0.314	0.517	OK
Brice Turang	2B	68	257	69	0.268	11	46	0.381	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.239	0.342	0.423	OK
William Contreras	C	68	269	77	0.286	6	43	0.347	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.268	0.330	0.381	OK
Gary Sánchez	DH	42	115	26	0.226	7	20	0.360	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.264	0.371	0.455	OK
Andrew Vaughn	1B	34	105	37	0.352	2	19	0.429	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.303	0.386	0.508	OK
Blake Perkins	RF	35	81	12	0.148	1	10	0.225	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.144	0.210	0.278	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	60	194	49	0.253	4	29	0.345	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.260	0.334	0.453	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	4	12	4	0.333	0	2	0.357	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.259	0.315	0.346	OK
Joey Ortiz	3B	52	151	31	0.205	1	14	0.291	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.210	0.288	0.289	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	4	1	1	4	9	0.129

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Mauricio Dubón	LF	71	260	68	0.262	7	43	0.317	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.246	0.294	0.392	OK
Drake Baldwin	DH	52	203	60	0.296	15	40	0.377	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.254	0.325	0.506	OK
Matt Olson	1B	75	290	79	0.272	20	51	0.344	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.253	0.324	0.456	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	75	286	79	0.276	10	37	0.329	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.240	0.286	0.351	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	68	246	76	0.309	14	41	0.340	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.286	0.319	0.470	OK
Austin Riley	3B	75	269	57	0.212	8	35	0.291	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.228	0.292	0.351	OK
Eli White	RF	38	90	20	0.222	3	14	0.268	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.220	0.265	0.402	OK
Joey Bart	C	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.248	0.274	0.372
Jorge Mateo	SS	38	99	28	0.283	4	11	0.324	3	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.131	0.178	0.230	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	7	4	4	2	3	0.226

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kyle Harrison	Starter	13	64.5	2.51	1.116	11.2	80	6.0	5	2	2	2	3	102	6.0	3	2
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	26	26.0	2.77	1.038	12.5	36	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	28	24.8	3.99	1.290	10.5	29	0.1	2	2	2	0	0	16	0.1	0	2

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Chris Sale	Starter	13	77.4	2.33	1.059	10.7	92	6.0	4	1	1	2	7	100	6.0	7	1
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	23	23.4	1.54	1.111	10.8	28	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever	31	30.6	0.59	0.882	7.6	26	1.1	0	0	0	2	1	23	1.1	1	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	34	28.6	1.26	0.734	12.9	41	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	15	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

ATL wins 4-1

Minnesota Twins @ Arizona Diamondbacks

MIN 36-41 (4.78 RPG / 5.14 RA)

6 - 4

ARI 39-36 (4.28 RPG / 4.48 RA)

WINNER: MIN wins 6-4 TARGET: MIN 5 - 4 ARI (MIN) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	1	0	6	8
ARI	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	4	8

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.206

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-175.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.303

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed2.5

Run Diff-104.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIN Season Quality

Record36-40

Win%0.474

Run Diff-24

RD/Game-0.316

ARI Season Quality

Record38-36

Win%0.514

Run Diff-19

RD/Game-0.257

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1188; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trevor Larnach	LF	59	190	52	0.274	5	20	0.364	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.207	0.286	0.362	OK
Byron Buxton	CF	65	267	73	0.273	23	36	0.334	5	5	1	1	3	0	1	0.200	0.270	0.324	0.536	OK
Kody Clemens	RF	63	225	56	0.249	11	28	0.313	5	3	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.169	0.222	0.353	OK
Josh Bell	DH	74	270	66	0.244	9	47	0.299	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.280	0.328	0.479	OK
Royce Lewis	1B	43	150	30	0.200	7	21	0.282	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.226	0.296	0.410	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	70	263	62	0.236	12	41	0.291	4	2	1	1	2	1	0	0.500	0.229	0.286	0.409	OK
Victor Caratini	C	54	169	39	0.231	5	26	0.325	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.284	0.362	0.493	OK
Luke Keaschall	2B	70	249	63	0.253	2	24	0.335	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.265	0.353	0.374	OK
Ryan Kreidler	SS	29	70	17	0.243	4	14	0.321	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.240	0.322	0.465	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	34	8	6	6	5	5	0.235

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ketel Marte	2B	70	287	74	0.258	12	44	0.310	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.265	0.315	0.441	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	72	247	60	0.243	4	25	0.356	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.254	0.373	0.399	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	72	269	76	0.283	13	42	0.371	5	5	2	1	1	0	2	0.400	0.262	0.339	0.526	OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	DH	28	104	23	0.221	1	13	0.272	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.229	0.277	0.326	OK
Pavin Smith	1B	14	34	6	0.176	1	4	0.293	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.231	0.334	0.357	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	70	238	57	0.239	8	31	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.227	0.284	0.341	OK
Adrian Del Castillo	C	38	120	23	0.192	4	20	0.252	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.221	0.283	0.371	OK
Jorge Barrosa	CF	38	100	17	0.170	1	7	0.231	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.174	0.222	0.315	OK
Tommy Troy	LF	20	64	15	0.234	2	4	0.319	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.212	0.292	0.378	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	35	8	4	4	4	8	0.229

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Taj Bradley	Starter	13	69.8	4.26	1.375	10.3	80	5.2	5	2	2	3	4	98	5.2	4	2
Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	20	14.4	1.87	1.250	13.1	21	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Anthony Banda	Middle Reliever	34	22.3	6.05	1.749	10.9	27	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Travis Adams	Middle Reliever	13	16.6	8.13	1.747	13.0	24	1.0	0	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1
Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	32	20.9	5.60	1.914	10.3	24	0.1	2	1	1	0	1	13	0.1	1	1

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zac Gallen	Starter	15	73.8	5.49	1.572	6.1	50	5.0	6	4	4	3	2	105	5.0	2	4
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	2.0	1	0	0	1	2	35	2.0	2	0
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1	1.0	9.00	2.000	0.0	0	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	21	1.0	0	1
Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	2	1.2	15.00	3.333	7.5	1	1.0	0	1	1	0	1	20	1.0	1	1

Game Summary

MIN wins 6-4

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

NYM 34-41 (4.08 RPG / 4.28 RA)

1 - 2

PHI 40-35 (4.11 RPG / 4.37 RA)

WINNER: PHI wins 2-1 TARGET: NYM 1 - 2 PHI (PHI) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	7
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	3

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.364

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff-136.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.212

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-131.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

NYM Season Quality

Record34-41

Win%0.453

Run Diff-15

RD/Game-0.200

PHI Season Quality

Record40-35

Win%0.533

Run Diff-20

RD/Game-0.267

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0533; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carson Benge	CF	70	264	68	0.258	7	26	0.317	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.243	0.287	0.357	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	74	301	75	0.249	8	42	0.292	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.266	0.304	0.402	OK
Juan Soto	LF	57	210	64	0.305	17	38	0.400	4	4	3	1	1	0	0	0.750	0.300	0.401	0.566	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	74	267	61	0.228	9	29	0.287	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.238	0.300	0.387	OK
Eric Wagaman	RF	5	9	3	0.333	1	2	0.333	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.131	0.146	0.229	OK
Francisco Alvarez	DH	43	140	35	0.250	5	13	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.257	0.318	0.388	OK
Mark Vientos	1B	62	207	45	0.217	8	31	0.251	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.144	0.180	0.267	OK
Luis Torrens	C	43	124	27	0.218	1	15	0.271	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.141	0.171	0.242	OK
Zack Short	SS	2	4	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.096	0.225	0.157
TEAM TOTALS									35	34	7	1	1	1	7	0.206

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trea Turner	SS	70	292	66	0.226	7	21	0.275	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.216	0.257	0.311	OK
Kyle Schwarber	DH	71	272	66	0.243	24	42	0.356	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.233	0.332	0.453	OK
Bryce Harper	1B	73	254	63	0.248	15	40	0.362	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.209	0.334	0.380	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	69	248	79	0.319	9	35	0.353	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.255	0.291	0.418	OK
Alec Bohm	3B	70	259	60	0.232	9	40	0.284	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.250	0.293	0.397	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	68	233	55	0.236	6	34	0.295	4	3	2	1	2	0	1	0.667	0.256	0.318	0.402	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	49	168	34	0.202	5	17	0.282	3	2	1	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.209	0.278	0.362	OK
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	RF	5	15	2	0.133	1	2	0.133	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.214	0.226	0.347	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	67	206	47	0.228	2	14	0.284	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.245	0.286	0.337	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	29	3	2	2	3	9	0.103

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Freddy Peralta	Starter	15	80.9	4.00	1.335	9.0	81	5.2	2	2	2	2	6	102	5.2	6	2
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	26	22.7	4.76	1.498	15.1	38	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	19	0.1	1	0
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	30	29.9	2.41	0.936	9.9	33	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	30	22.1	2.44	1.538	12.6	31	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	1.0	2	0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	15	97.6	1.84	1.107	10.7	116	6.2	4	0	0	1	7	100	6.2	7	0
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	24	23.2	1.16	0.862	13.6	35	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	30	25.1	2.51	1.315	11.1	31	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	9	1.0	0	1
José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	32	21.1	8.10	2.133	14.5	34	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	19	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

PHI wins 2-1

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies

PIT 38-38 (5.03 RPG / 4.86 RA)

6 - 2

COL 29-47 (4.58 RPG / 5.75 RA)

WINNER: PIT wins 6-2 TARGET: PIT 6 - 1 COL (PIT) Confidence: 55.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	0	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	6	11
COL	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	5

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.328

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff-135.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

COL Recent Form

Win%0.212

Avg Runs1.5

Avg Allowed5.0

Run Diff-231.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

PIT Season Quality

Record38-37

Win%0.507

Run Diff14

RD/Game0.187

COL Season Quality

Record28-47

Win%0.373

Run Diff-90

RD/Game-1.200

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.5867; margin adjustment: -0.6664; applied: True

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Spencer Horwitz	1B	70	231	64	0.277	9	32	0.387	5	3	0	1	1	1	1	0.000	0.253	0.359	0.421	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	70	270	65	0.241	18	49	0.325	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.229	0.307	0.461	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	76	270	77	0.285	10	48	0.402	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	0.500	0.323	0.417	0.600	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	DH	60	225	64	0.284	11	41	0.343	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.273	0.323	0.443	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	69	263	77	0.293	2	33	0.339	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.261	0.296	0.350	OK
Tyler Callihan	RF	13	33	10	0.303	2	6	0.425	5	3	1	1	0	2	1	0.333	0.168	0.280	0.361	OK
Jake Mangum	CF	48	152	45	0.296	1	12	0.337	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.273	0.310	0.351	OK
Jared Triolo	SS	40	130	31	0.238	0	8	0.308	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.241	0.303	0.319	OK
Henry Davis	C	41	130	18	0.138	5	17	0.236	5	4	2	1	3	1	0	0.500	0.167	0.246	0.308	OK
TEAM TOTALS									45	37	11	6	6	7	5	0.297

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	RF	55	191	55	0.288	4	26	0.327	4	3	2	0	0	1	1	0.667	0.277	0.317	0.419	OK
Willi Castro	3B	63	220	62	0.282	5	32	0.359	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.295	0.367	0.483	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	70	256	72	0.281	11	37	0.355	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	0.500	0.268	0.328	0.522	OK
Hunter Goodman	C	70	267	66	0.247	21	39	0.318	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.260	0.317	0.532	OK
Troy Johnston	DH	67	230	72	0.313	3	33	0.370	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.279	0.337	0.453	OK
Cole Carrigg	CF	10	36	8	0.222	3	8	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.236	0.342	0.437	OK
Edouard Julien	2B	60	170	37	0.218	2	17	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.231	0.320	0.323	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	68	247	54	0.219	5	24	0.266	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.222	0.265	0.340	OK
Sterlin Thompson	LF	24	64	15	0.234	2	9	0.319	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.153	0.208	0.315	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	5	2	2	3	5	0.161

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Paul Skenes	Starter	15	80.6	2.90	0.943	11.1	99	6.0	5	2	2	3	5	103	6.0	5	2
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	31	29.7	2.42	0.875	11.2	37	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	31	27.9	4.19	1.398	8.4	26	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Evan Sisk	Middle Reliever	28	26.4	2.39	1.364	13.3	39	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	28	23.3	5.02	1.717	14.3	37	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	0	0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tomoyuki Sugano	Starter	14	71.0	4.69	1.380	5.2	41	5.1	10	4	4	3	2	110	5.1	2	4
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	22	35.9	2.51	1.198	8.3	33	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	22	1.1	1	0
Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	30	27.1	7.31	2.030	12.3	37	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	20	1.0	0	1
Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	19	17.8	7.08	2.135	8.1	16	1.0	0	1	1	1	1	18	1.0	1	1
Brennan Bernardino	Middle Reliever	35	22.1	5.29	1.855	9.0	22	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	14	0.1	1	0
Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever	31	19.0	7.11	2.316	12.8	27	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	14	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

PIT wins 6-2

San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers

SD 39-36 (3.91 RPG / 4.03 RA)

4 - 1

TEX 36-40 (4.01 RPG / 4.17 RA)

WINNER: SD wins 4-1 TARGET: SD 3 - 1 TEX (SD) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
SD	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	4	7
TEX	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	6

SD Recent Form

Win%0.234

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff-150.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.274

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-140.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

SD Season Quality

Record38-35

Win%0.521

Run Diff-9

RD/Game-0.123

TEX Season Quality

Record35-39

Win%0.473

Run Diff-12

RD/Game-0.162

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1102; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	2B	72	282	79	0.280	2	25	0.347	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.261	0.324	0.359	OK
Samad Taylor	LF	11	40	15	0.375	1	8	0.432	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.191	0.261	0.283	OK
Manny Machado	3B	72	265	46	0.174	12	36	0.253	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.191	0.269	0.334	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	70	246	55	0.224	8	28	0.306	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.212	0.289	0.300	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	70	273	57	0.209	8	30	0.273	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.226	0.277	0.385	OK
Ty France	1B	47	147	38	0.259	8	24	0.306	4	4	2	1	3	0	2	0.500	0.231	0.269	0.459	OK
Nick Solak	DH	3	5	1	0.200	0	1	0.167	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.121	0.136	0.191	OK
Jase Bowen	RF	8	25	3	0.120	0	0	0.154	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.167	0.205	0.232	OK
Blake Hunt	C	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.087	0.161	0.177
TEAM TOTALS									37	37	7	4	4	0	12	0.189

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Joc Pederson	DH	69	190	45	0.237	9	25	0.339	5	5	2	0	0	0	2	0.400	0.156	0.254	0.306	OK
Josh Jung	3B	70	270	82	0.304	8	30	0.362	5	4	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.257	0.311	0.368	OK
Wyatt Langford	CF	33	132	34	0.258	5	11	0.300	5	3	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.254	0.297	0.478	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	73	282	73	0.259	7	26	0.328	5	5	1	0	0	0	3	0.200	0.258	0.305	0.416	OK
Ezequiel Duran	SS	64	218	61	0.280	5	38	0.340	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.163	0.240	0.302	OK
Jarred Kelenic	LF	1	1	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.149	0.229	0.254
Jake Burger	1B	73	270	67	0.248	12	44	0.305	4	3	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.245	0.303	0.413	OK
Nicky Lopez	2B	18	52	16	0.308	1	5	0.345	4	4	2	0	0	0	2	0.500	0.159	0.190	0.223	OK
Kyle Higashioka	C	37	119	28	0.235	5	14	0.311	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.143	0.222	0.254	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	35	6	1	1	5	16	0.171

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Walker Buehler	Starter	14	65.0	4.29	1.385	8.0	58	5.1	3	0	0	4	8	92	5.1	8	0
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	34	30.7	4.69	1.270	12.0	41	2.1	2	0	0	0	2	33	2.1	2	0
Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	31	25.0	2.16	1.320	6.5	18	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	1.0	2	0
David Morgan	Middle Reliever	15	15.4	5.84	2.338	13.4	23	1.0	1	1	1	0	3	25	1.0	3	1
Mason Miller	Reliever	29	27.9	0.97	0.860	19.0	59	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	21	0.1	1	0

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
MacKenzie Gore	Starter	15	75.9	4.39	1.344	10.2	86	5.2	3	1	1	0	9	91	5.2	9	1
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	26	32.8	0.82	0.518	9.6	35	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.1	1	0
Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	26	28.9	2.18	0.934	6.9	22	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.1	1	0
Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	26	19.4	6.49	1.649	12.1	26	1.2	4	3	3	0	1	30	1.2	1	3

Game Summary

SD wins 4-1 (Extra Innings - 10)

San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins

SF 32-45 (4.19 RPG / 4.82 RA)

1 - 3

MIA 39-38 (4.34 RPG / 4.35 RA)

WINNER: MIA wins 3-1 TARGET: SF 1 - 3 MIA (MIA) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	4
MIA	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	x	3	11

SF Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff-184.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.222

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff-128.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

SF Season Quality

Record32-44

Win%0.421

Run Diff-45

RD/Game-0.592

MIA Season Quality

Record38-38

Win%0.500

Run Diff-4

RD/Game-0.053

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6579; margin adjustment: 0.2763; applied: True

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Luis Arraez	2B	72	288	95	0.330	3	29	0.363	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.283	0.316	0.439	OK
Bryce Eldridge	DH	35	118	37	0.314	6	17	0.401	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.279	0.368	0.502	OK
Matt Chapman	3B	74	270	66	0.244	7	42	0.329	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.215	0.299	0.391	OK
Rafael Devers	1B	75	288	71	0.247	11	36	0.311	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.255	0.334	0.510	OK
Jung Hoo Lee	RF	66	252	84	0.333	4	26	0.364	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	0.667	0.281	0.308	0.429	OK
Willy Adames	SS	73	290	67	0.231	13	31	0.273	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.205	0.242	0.413	OK
Casey Schmitt	LF	67	266	76	0.286	15	38	0.316	3	2	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.294	0.311	0.451	OK
Drew Gilbert	CF	51	149	33	0.221	3	14	0.280	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.194	0.252	0.321	OK
Eric Haase	C	18	53	12	0.226	4	9	0.281	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.203	0.259	0.387	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	30	4	1	1	2	11	0.133

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Liam Hicks	DH	73	248	69	0.278	13	53	0.359	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.280	0.350	0.419	OK
Otto Lopez	SS	75	296	99	0.334	5	32	0.367	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.273	0.313	0.400	OK
Kyle Stowers	1B	52	193	43	0.223	7	27	0.307	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.237	0.305	0.456	OK
Xavier Edwards	2B	75	275	80	0.291	6	26	0.375	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.237	0.330	0.352	OK
Heriberto Hernández	LF	46	143	33	0.231	6	26	0.284	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.244	0.288	0.400	OK
Owen Caissie	RF	63	180	40	0.222	8	39	0.274	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.244	0.287	0.494	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	73	256	52	0.203	4	18	0.328	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.219	0.318	0.350	OK
Joe Mack	C	34	102	26	0.255	3	16	0.321	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.261	0.331	0.468	OK
Leo Jiménez	3B	24	73	14	0.192	0	1	0.250	3	3	3	1	0	0	0	1.000	0.118	0.172	0.180	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	35	11	3	3	0	6	0.314

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trevor McDonald	Starter	8	40.8	4.85	1.348	9.0	41	5.0	8	2	2	0	6	87	5.0	6	2
Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	31	27.9	3.55	1.290	12.3	38	2.0	1	1	1	0	0	18	2.0	0	1
Ryan Walker	Middle Reliever	20	16.2	6.11	1.914	9.4	17	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Max Meyer	Starter	15	83.6	2.80	1.136	10.2	95	6.0	2	0	0	1	7	94	6.0	7	0
Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	23	19.6	6.89	1.480	13.3	29	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	15	1.0	1	1
Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	31	25.9	3.82	1.853	11.8	34	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Anthony Bender	Middle Reliever	31	25.3	3.56	1.107	12.8	36	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

MIA wins 3-1

Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs

TOR 38-39 (4.1 RPG / 4.43 RA)

5 - 4

CHC 40-37 (4.75 RPG / 4.48 RA)

WINNER: TOR wins 5-4 TARGET: TOR 5 - 4 CHC (TOR) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	6
CHC	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	4	10

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.224

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff-154.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.130

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff-184.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TOR Season Quality

Record37-39

Win%0.487

Run Diff-27

RD/Game-0.355

CHC Season Quality

Record40-36

Win%0.526

Run Diff23

RD/Game0.303

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7171; margin adjustment: 0.3012; applied: True

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
George Springer	DH	54	206	46	0.223	8	21	0.315	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.249	0.323	0.445	OK
Nathan Lukes	RF	41	131	41	0.313	2	14	0.359	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.287	0.317	0.432	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	71	261	72	0.276	4	30	0.357	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.234	0.306	0.357	OK
Brandon Valenzuela	C	45	134	35	0.261	7	19	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.269	0.344	0.452	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	73	268	61	0.228	15	42	0.308	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.214	0.290	0.394	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	59	211	54	0.256	5	17	0.328	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.222	0.289	0.362	OK
Davis Schneider	2B	37	87	15	0.172	3	11	0.301	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.222	0.328	0.429	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	71	239	55	0.230	7	33	0.272	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.242	0.264	0.400	OK
Myles Straw	LF	53	117	28	0.239	2	9	0.297	4	2	1	1	0	2	0	0.500	0.142	0.207	0.228	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	33	6	5	5	6	2	0.182

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	75	282	81	0.287	15	38	0.364	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0.400	0.312	0.370	0.590	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	73	296	71	0.240	4	34	0.312	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.225	0.288	0.314	OK
Seiya Suzuki	DH	61	223	60	0.269	10	31	0.357	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.291	0.373	0.449	OK
Michael Busch	1B	74	267	67	0.251	8	42	0.381	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.238	0.358	0.389	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	74	292	74	0.253	6	25	0.346	4	3	2	0	0	1	1	0.667	0.258	0.357	0.363	OK
Ian Happ	LF	71	268	62	0.231	16	37	0.341	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.230	0.324	0.425	OK
Matt Shaw	RF	42	112	29	0.259	3	15	0.306	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.256	0.303	0.427	OK
Miguel Amaya	C	33	99	23	0.232	3	10	0.333	4	2	0	1	1	1	1	0.000	0.221	0.291	0.354	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	70	233	42	0.180	8	31	0.289	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.193	0.302	0.336	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	10	4	4	3	6	0.278

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Patrick Corbin	Starter	13	58.9	4.74	1.528	6.6	43	4.2	8	3	3	1	4	87	4.2	4	3
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	36	36.5	0.99	1.068	13.6	55	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	20	1.0	0	0
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	37	32.4	1.94	1.235	5.6	20	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	20	1.0	1	1
Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	35	29.3	5.84	1.672	16.3	53	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Braydon Fisher	Middle Reliever	38	33.6	3.75	1.399	10.7	40	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Colin Rea	Starter	15	70.5	5.62	1.532	7.1	56	5.1	4	5	5	2	2	88	5.1	2	5
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	32	28.4	3.49	1.444	11.7	37	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	21	15.7	4.59	1.401	13.2	23	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	28	19.2	7.50	2.240	12.7	27	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	17	0.2	0	0
Hoby Milner	Middle Reliever	35	27.6	4.24	1.341	5.5	17	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Ryan Rolison	Middle Reliever	22	22.8	2.37	1.360	10.7	27	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	5	0.0	0	0
Ben Brown	Reliever	20	66.6	1.89	0.961	8.8	65	0.0	2	0	0	1	0	3	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

TOR wins 5-4

Washington Nationals @ Tampa Bay Rays

WAS 40-37 (5.36 RPG / 5.19 RA)

5 - 2

TB 42-31 (4.42 RPG / 4.33 RA)

WINNER: WAS wins 5-2 TARGET: WAS 3 - 2 TB (WAS) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
WAS	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	3	5	9
TB	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	6

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.262

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff-142.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

TB Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs0.8

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff-135.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

WAS Season Quality

Record39-37

Win%0.513

Run Diff12

RD/Game0.158

TB Season Quality

Record42-30

Win%0.583

Run Diff8

RD/Game0.111

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0585; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	DH	76	289	79	0.273	20	48	0.402	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.263	0.370	0.506	OK
Curtis Mead	3B	60	181	42	0.232	11	34	0.344	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.146	0.256	0.319	OK
Andrés Chaparro	1B	13	29	5	0.172	0	4	0.294	5	4	2	1	2	1	1	0.500	0.206	0.317	0.370	OK
CJ Abrams	SS	74	275	78	0.284	15	55	0.367	5	5	1	1	2	0	1	0.200	0.252	0.311	0.450	OK
Dylan Crews	RF	25	97	18	0.186	4	14	0.225	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.208	0.227	0.361	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	75	295	75	0.254	8	37	0.313	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.232	0.288	0.374	OK
Jacob Young	CF	65	229	53	0.231	8	28	0.279	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.218	0.257	0.358	OK
Nasim Nuñez	2B	65	209	47	0.225	0	23	0.312	4	2	1	1	0	2	0	0.500	0.275	0.358	0.372	OK
Keibert Ruiz	C	47	153	43	0.281	6	29	0.300	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.264	0.285	0.454	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	36	9	5	5	5	7	0.250

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	69	266	85	0.320	12	47	0.398	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.270	0.336	0.404	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	71	258	71	0.275	12	51	0.377	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.268	0.354	0.428	OK
Cedric Mullins	CF	63	216	43	0.199	6	21	0.287	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.236	0.306	0.339	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	72	272	75	0.276	15	33	0.371	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.263	0.350	0.445	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	50	148	35	0.236	1	21	0.341	4	4	2	1	0	0	2	0.500	0.152	0.246	0.254	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	66	259	67	0.259	0	14	0.292	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.135	0.173	0.193	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	14	42	8	0.190	2	5	0.306	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.219	0.327	0.351	OK
Hunter Feduccia	C	37	85	21	0.247	1	6	0.323	3	3	2	1	2	0	0	0.667	0.144	0.221	0.221	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	52	163	35	0.215	0	18	0.312	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.212	0.300	0.299	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	6	2	2	1	9	0.182

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cade Cavalli	Starter	15	72.8	4.08	1.429	10.0	81	5.1	5	1	1	1	5	88	5.1	5	1
Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	20	19.7	3.65	1.320	10.5	23	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	20	1.1	1	1
Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	21	18.7	2.89	1.123	6.7	14	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	22	44.5	2.63	1.101	7.9	39	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	18	1.1	2	0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ian Seymour	Starter	27	33.9	4.25	1.298	10.9	41	5.0	5	2	2	1	5	94	5.0	5	2
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	31	28.4	1.90	0.951	10.5	33	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	21	1.1	0	0
Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	32	28.3	3.18	1.095	8.3	26	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	20	1.0	2	0
Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	21	16.7	5.39	1.497	13.5	25	1.2	3	3	3	2	0	50	1.2	0	3

Game Summary

WAS wins 5-2

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Dodgers

BAL Recent Form

LAD Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

LAD Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners

BOS Recent Form

SEA Recent Form

BOS Season Quality

SEA Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers

CHW Recent Form

DET Recent Form

CHW Season Quality

DET Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees

CIN Recent Form

NYY Recent Form

CIN Season Quality

NYY Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros

CLE Recent Form

HOU Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

HOU Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics

LAA Recent Form

OAK Recent Form

LAA Season Quality

OAK Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves

MIL Recent Form

ATL Recent Form

MIL Season Quality

ATL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Minnesota Twins @ Arizona Diamondbacks