MLB Predictions — June 19, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
BAL @ LAD	1 - 5	2 - 4	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 4-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
BOS @ SEA	1 - 2	0 - 4	SEA	SEA	SEA wins 4-0	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CHW @ DET	1 - 2	1 - 3	DET	DET	DET wins 3-1	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CIN @ NYY	1 - 5	1 - 5	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 5-1	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CLE @ HOU	4 - 2	3 - 2	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 3-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
LAA @ OAK	4 - 3	4 - 3	LAA	LAA	LAA wins 4-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIL @ ATL	3 - 1	5 - 1	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 5-1	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIN @ ARI	2 - 3	1 - 5	ARI	ARI	ARI wins 5-1	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
PIT @ COL	7 - 6	8 - 5	PIT	PIT	PIT wins 8-5	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SD @ TEX	1 - 2	1 - 3	TEX	TEX	TEX wins 3-1	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SF @ MIA	1 - 2	1 - 3	MIA	MIA	MIA wins 3-1	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
STL @ KC	5 - 2	6 - 2	STL	STL	STL wins 6-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TOR @ CHC	2 - 1	4 - 1	TOR	TOR	TOR wins 4-1	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
WAS @ TB	2 - 3	0 - 4	TB	TB	TB wins 4-0	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Dodgers

BAL 35-41 (4.59 RPG / 5.07 RA)

2 - 4

LAD 48-27 (5.28 RPG / 3.36 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 4-2 TARGET: BAL 1 - 5 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4
LAD	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	x	4	9

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.224

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-169.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.323

Avg Runs1.5

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-88.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

BAL Season Quality

Record35-41

Win%0.461

Run Diff-36

RD/Game-0.474

LAD Season Quality

Record48-27

Win%0.640

Run Diff144

RD/Game1.920

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.6629; margin adjustment: 1.1184; applied: True

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Taylor Ward	DH	73	271	69	0.255	3	19	0.395	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.218	0.339	0.313	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	73	302	67	0.222	14	35	0.291	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.207	0.273	0.371	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	74	281	71	0.253	16	48	0.334	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.238	0.313	0.434	OK
Samuel Basallo	C	61	204	53	0.260	10	30	0.320	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.236	0.297	0.383	OK
Leody Taveras	RF	60	193	49	0.254	2	29	0.329	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.152	0.223	0.280	OK
Colton Cowser	CF	58	147	33	0.224	6	20	0.310	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.216	0.301	0.345	OK
Coby Mayo	3B	54	176	35	0.199	9	26	0.264	4	3	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.199	0.250	0.376	OK
Jackson Holliday	2B	26	79	16	0.203	4	12	0.278	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.199	0.274	0.381	OK
Jeremiah Jackson	LF	51	171	43	0.251	6	24	0.270	3	2	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.234	0.259	0.384	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	30	4	2	2	3	13	0.133

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kyle Tucker	RF	71	261	63	0.241	6	40	0.339	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.263	0.350	0.421	OK
Andy Pages	CF	74	287	78	0.272	15	56	0.318	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.250	0.298	0.423	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	72	272	76	0.279	12	40	0.368	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.274	0.358	0.494	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	39	158	32	0.203	7	18	0.262	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.252	0.303	0.404	OK
Max Muncy	3B	68	223	59	0.265	16	28	0.367	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.281	0.382	0.546	OK
Tommy Edman	LF	1	3	0	0.000	0	0	0.250	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.247	0.411	0.358
Ryan Ward	DH	14	40	10	0.250	3	11	0.302	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.261	0.318	0.508	OK
Dalton Rushing	C	40	125	33	0.264	8	21	0.352	3	3	1	1	2	0	1	0.333	0.248	0.328	0.443	OK
Alex Freeland	2B	51	145	33	0.228	3	17	0.309	3	3	1	0	0	0	2	0.333	0.224	0.311	0.335	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	9	4	4	1	9	0.273

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trey Gibson	Starter	5	19.7	6.40	1.726	5.5	12	4.0	9	4	4	0	7	85	4.0	7	4
Ryan Helsley	Middle Reliever	13	11.2	4.02	1.429	13.7	17	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	25	2.0	2	0
Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	33	27.4	1.97	0.803	10.8	33	2.0	0	0	0	1	0	29	2.0	0	0

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Roki Sasaki	Starter	12	61.4	4.84	1.352	9.4	64	5.2	4	2	2	3	6	99	5.2	6	2
Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	33	28.9	2.49	0.761	11.8	38	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	15	1.0	3	0
Will Klein	Middle Reliever	25	26.4	2.39	1.439	10.9	32	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	33	18.5	3.41	1.405	15.6	32	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	12	0.2	1	0
Blake Treinen	Middle Reliever	27	18.5	2.92	1.459	11.2	23	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	13	0.2	1	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 4-2

Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners

BOS 29-43 (3.92 RPG / 4.1 RA)

0 - 4

SEA 39-37 (4.21 RPG / 3.91 RA)

WINNER: SEA wins 4-0 TARGET: BOS 1 - 2 SEA (SEA) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
SEA	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	x	4	8

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.190

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-146.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.323

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-104.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

BOS Season Quality

Record29-43

Win%0.403

Run Diff-13

RD/Game-0.181

SEA Season Quality

Record39-37

Win%0.513

Run Diff23

RD/Game0.303

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6488; margin adjustment: 0.2725; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Mickey Gasper	DH	29	93	25	0.269	0	6	0.324	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.234	0.286	0.347	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	67	251	72	0.287	7	32	0.339	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.255	0.288	0.410	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	71	277	76	0.274	8	34	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.231	0.291	0.369	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	68	249	73	0.293	16	44	0.385	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.256	0.323	0.494	OK
Jarren Duran	LF	67	272	57	0.210	12	37	0.269	3	3	2	0	0	0	0	0.667	0.204	0.258	0.386	OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	SS	41	119	33	0.277	2	13	0.344	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.256	0.324	0.376	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	63	208	40	0.192	4	27	0.251	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.185	0.232	0.350	OK
Carlos Narváez	C	39	121	25	0.207	2	3	0.278	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.197	0.256	0.289	OK
Andruw Monasterio	2B	38	111	26	0.234	2	11	0.274	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.123	0.164	0.246	OK
TEAM TOTALS									31	30	3	0	0	1	12	0.100

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Rob Refsnyder	DH	44	91	13	0.143	3	9	0.214	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.225	0.280	0.332	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	44	171	28	0.164	7	20	0.249	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.196	0.276	0.301	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	75	301	75	0.249	13	35	0.310	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.227	0.287	0.358	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	69	273	69	0.253	8	32	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.235	0.289	0.371	OK
Dominic Canzone	RF	65	170	49	0.288	11	31	0.356	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.302	0.373	0.568	OK
Cole Young	2B	76	276	71	0.257	6	34	0.318	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.256	0.298	0.393	OK
Victor Robles	LF	18	53	14	0.264	0	2	0.291	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.231	0.265	0.320	OK
Colt Emerson	SS	26	85	20	0.235	6	16	0.309	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.233	0.290	0.469	OK
Weston Wilson	3B	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.196	0.293	0.309
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	8	4	4	2	8	0.250

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ranger Suarez	Starter	13	68.6	3.28	1.195	9.2	70	5.2	6	3	3	2	6	97	5.2	6	3
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	22	21.2	0.85	0.991	12.3	29	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.1	1	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	22	21.2	2.97	1.085	11.5	27	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	16	12.0	7.50	1.917	13.5	18	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	0.0	0	0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bryce Miller	Starter	6	34.3	1.57	0.729	9.4	36	6.0	3	0	0	1	8	92	6.0	8	0
Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	28	24.7	5.10	1.457	14.2	39	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	34	27.6	3.26	1.558	8.8	27	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	15	0.2	2	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	35	27.5	2.62	1.564	9.5	29	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

SEA wins 4-0

Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers

CHW 39-34 (4.73 RPG / 4.71 RA)

1 - 3

DET 30-44 (4.07 RPG / 4.2 RA)

WINNER: DET wins 3-1 TARGET: CHW 1 - 2 DET (DET) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4
DET	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	x	3	11

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.309

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed2.3

Run Diff-70.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

DET Recent Form

Win%0.292

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-114.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CHW Season Quality

Record39-34

Win%0.534

Run Diff1

RD/Game0.014

DET Season Quality

Record30-44

Win%0.405

Run Diff-10

RD/Game-0.135

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3421; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Miguel Vargas	1B	71	262	63	0.240	16	44	0.358	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.223	0.315	0.395	OK
Randal Grichuk	DH	30	65	19	0.292	6	17	0.333	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.257	0.297	0.460	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	70	267	74	0.277	6	25	0.343	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.256	0.311	0.392	OK
Colson Montgomery	3B	70	256	59	0.230	20	45	0.325	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.251	0.319	0.585	OK
Edgar Quero	C	46	141	27	0.191	2	15	0.247	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.222	0.271	0.294	OK
Junior Perez	RF	1	2	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.233	0.247	0.342
Sam Antonacci	LF	54	185	52	0.281	3	18	0.380	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.254	0.311	0.443	OK
Luisangel Acuña	SS	45	121	25	0.207	0	8	0.258	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.240	0.280	0.301	OK
Tristan Peters	CF	62	177	52	0.294	3	21	0.349	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	0.333	0.162	0.222	0.342	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	31	4	1	1	5	11	0.129

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kevin McGonigle	SS	70	261	74	0.284	6	26	0.393	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.253	0.354	0.450	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	66	243	63	0.259	16	51	0.331	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.255	0.305	0.473	OK
Matt Vierling	CF	54	176	33	0.188	4	22	0.250	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.116	0.179	0.223	OK
Riley Greene	LF	73	264	79	0.299	8	33	0.389	5	4	2	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.246	0.333	0.394	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	72	244	49	0.201	12	28	0.301	4	4	3	0	0	0	1	0.750	0.198	0.285	0.419	OK
Kerry Carpenter	DH	51	142	33	0.232	10	27	0.313	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	0.667	0.234	0.301	0.465	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	2B	35	95	22	0.232	2	10	0.263	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.264	0.292	0.428	OK
Colt Keith	3B	66	195	51	0.262	4	15	0.311	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.257	0.293	0.529	OK
Trei Cruz	RF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.247	0.310	0.403
TEAM TOTALS									40	35	11	3	3	4	4	0.314

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brandon Eisert	Starter	12	11.5	3.91	1.391	10.2	13	3.0	3	0	0	3	3	59	3.0	3	0
Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	2	1.1	16.36	3.636	0.0	0	1.0	4	1	1	0	0	25	1.0	0	1
Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	1.48	1.311	11.8	8	3.0	3	1	1	0	1	46	3.0	1	1
Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1	2.1	8.57	1.905	4.3	1	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	33	1.0	0	1

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tarik Skubal	Starter	8	46.6	2.90	1.009	9.5	49	6.0	3	1	1	2	8	105	6.0	8	1
Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	18	14.6	3.70	1.096	12.9	21	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	25	1.0	2	0
Will Vest	Middle Reliever	23	19.3	6.99	1.710	10.7	23	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	21	1.0	0	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	32	30.7	1.76	1.661	6.2	21	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

DET wins 3-1

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees

CIN 35-38 (4.26 RPG / 4.97 RA)

1 - 5

NYY 45-28 (5.22 RPG / 3.6 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 5-1 TARGET: CIN 1 - 5 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3
NYY	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	x	5	4

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.222

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-182.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.310

Avg Runs1.5

Avg Allowed2.7

Run Diff-67.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CIN Season Quality

Record35-38

Win%0.479

Run Diff-52

RD/Game-0.712

NYY Season Quality

Record45-28

Win%0.616

Run Diff118

RD/Game1.616

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.5342; margin adjustment: 1.0644; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Blake Dunn	CF	27	113	30	0.265	2	5	0.320	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.143	0.202	0.244	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	44	163	44	0.270	13	35	0.370	4	1	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.227	0.330	0.494	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	72	270	69	0.256	14	47	0.354	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.230	0.323	0.413	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	DH	52	153	39	0.255	8	24	0.345	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.160	0.264	0.289	OK
Spencer Steer	RF	69	243	60	0.247	11	28	0.330	4	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.192	0.282	0.370	OK
Eugenio Suárez	3B	46	168	36	0.214	7	25	0.273	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.203	0.254	0.388	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	56	178	38	0.213	5	19	0.304	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.229	0.312	0.346	OK
Matt McLain	SS	66	237	49	0.207	8	25	0.311	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.202	0.307	0.356	OK
Edwin Arroyo	2B	12	39	8	0.205	0	2	0.273	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.188	0.228	0.267	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	29	3	1	1	3	8	0.103

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ben Rice	DH	67	251	73	0.291	20	48	0.389	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.272	0.364	0.535	OK
Jasson Domínguez	RF	12	47	9	0.191	2	5	0.240	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.229	0.264	0.430	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	72	265	73	0.275	11	49	0.369	4	4	1	1	3	0	0	0.250	0.286	0.371	0.491	OK
Paul Goldschmidt	1B	46	170	51	0.300	11	36	0.358	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.312	0.360	0.571	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	69	250	57	0.228	10	30	0.309	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.231	0.316	0.428	OK
Spencer Jones	CF	19	49	12	0.245	2	7	0.339	3	2	0	1	0	1	2	0.000	0.268	0.359	0.458	OK
Anthony Volpe	SS	24	80	20	0.250	1	12	0.355	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.274	0.372	0.427	OK
Ryan McMahon	3B	61	180	38	0.211	8	23	0.268	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.222	0.284	0.387	OK
J.C. Escarra	C	26	80	15	0.188	0	7	0.233	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	1.000	0.217	0.265	0.344	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	28	4	5	5	4	7	0.143

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Rhett Lowder	Starter	10	45.6	4.74	1.469	7.3	37	4.1	3	5	5	4	4	87	4.1	4	5
Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	31	25.9	4.52	1.467	9.4	27	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14	1.0	2	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	36	29.4	3.37	1.701	9.5	31	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	17	15.8	3.42	1.203	9.1	16	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cam Schlittler	Starter	15	86.9	1.86	0.932	9.9	96	6.1	2	1	1	2	6	94	6.1	6	1
David Bednar	Middle Reliever	29	27.8	3.88	1.475	11.7	36	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0
Camilo Doval	Middle Reliever	32	23.9	6.03	1.381	9.8	26	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	16	1.0	1	0
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	35	23.6	3.05	1.695	15.6	41	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	15	0.2	1	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 5-1

Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros

CLE 40-35 (3.97 RPG / 4.07 RA)

3 - 2

HOU 35-41 (4.53 RPG / 5.07 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 3-2 TARGET: CLE 4 - 2 HOU (CLE) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	3	6
HOU	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	5

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.227

Avg Runs0.8

Avg Allowed2.7

Run Diff-125.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.365

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-207.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

CLE Season Quality

Record40-35

Win%0.533

Run Diff-7

RD/Game-0.093

HOU Season Quality

Record35-41

Win%0.461

Run Diff-41

RD/Game-0.539

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5554; margin adjustment: -0.2332; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Travis Bazzana	2B	44	160	40	0.250	5	18	0.353	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.221	0.323	0.388	OK
Kyle Manzardo	1B	64	198	47	0.237	8	23	0.327	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.237	0.315	0.402	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	71	233	63	0.270	5	32	0.347	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.241	0.304	0.377	OK
Rhys Hoskins	DH	55	169	30	0.178	6	23	0.311	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.188	0.304	0.339	OK
Daniel Schneemann	CF	58	185	42	0.227	6	26	0.302	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.223	0.296	0.424	OK
Gabriel Arias	3B	11	36	9	0.250	2	5	0.289	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.260	0.300	0.430	OK
Kahlil Watson	RF	1	4	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.219	0.229	0.319
Patrick Bailey	C	17	54	10	0.185	1	5	0.224	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.202	0.251	0.299	OK
Steven Kwan	LF	65	233	50	0.215	1	13	0.322	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.218	0.320	0.283	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	3	3	2	8	0.182

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	37	147	41	0.279	4	15	0.344	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.246	0.298	0.384	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	74	270	89	0.330	24	55	0.433	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.302	0.386	0.528	OK
Christian Walker	1B	74	277	69	0.249	18	52	0.319	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.233	0.293	0.439	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	68	240	54	0.225	10	36	0.336	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.223	0.315	0.406	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	53	201	46	0.229	7	16	0.307	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.218	0.288	0.402	OK
Yainer Diaz	C	25	100	24	0.240	2	13	0.264	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.254	0.284	0.374	OK
Cam Smith	RF	73	251	56	0.223	7	26	0.304	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.239	0.301	0.385	OK
Joey Loperfido	LF	24	72	17	0.236	0	7	0.325	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.204	0.295	0.324	OK
Jake Meyers	CF	34	112	24	0.214	3	10	0.276	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.203	0.263	0.334	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	5	2	2	3	5	0.156

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tanner Bibee	Starter	15	82.6	4.03	1.199	7.7	71	6.0	5	2	2	1	3	95	6.0	3	2
Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	32	32.6	2.48	1.104	14.1	51	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.1	1	0
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	23	17.3	4.16	1.561	8.3	16	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Shawn Armstrong	Middle Reliever	21	17.2	2.09	1.221	11.5	22	0.2	0	0	0	2	0	16	0.2	0	0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tatsuya Imai	Starter	9	32.9	6.84	1.611	10.1	37	4.0	5	3	3	2	4	82	4.0	4	3
Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	7	7.0	1.29	0.429	14.1	11	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0
Bryan King	Middle Reliever	29	26.9	3.01	1.524	8.0	24	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	25	2.0	1	0
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	27	22.0	7.36	2.000	13.5	33	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	24	1.2	1	0

Game Summary

CLE wins 3-2

Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics

LAA 30-46 (4.39 RPG / 4.97 RA)

4 - 3

OAK 37-38 (4.6 RPG / 5.21 RA)

WINNER: LAA wins 4-3 TARGET: LAA 4 - 3 OAK (LAA) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAA	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	4	9
OAK	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	3	4

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.318

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-170.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.308

Avg Runs1.5

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff-164.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

LAA Season Quality

Record30-45

Win%0.400

Run Diff-39

RD/Game-0.520

OAK Season Quality

Record36-38

Win%0.486

Run Diff-51

RD/Game-0.689

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0395; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	73	289	65	0.225	15	34	0.326	5	4	2	1	2	1	0	0.500	0.217	0.291	0.441	OK
Nolan Schanuel	1B	57	213	54	0.254	4	25	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.241	0.302	0.341	OK
Jo Adell	RF	76	297	74	0.249	10	41	0.292	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.248	0.272	0.368	OK
Oswald Peraza	2B	65	216	56	0.259	7	21	0.304	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.236	0.260	0.372	OK
Christian Moore	DH	1	4	1	0.250	0	0	0.250	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.241	0.250	0.339	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	9	36	9	0.250	0	5	0.289	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.247	0.291	0.356	OK
Logan O'Hoppe	C	48	156	36	0.231	3	17	0.301	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.258	0.307	0.397	OK
Wade Meckler	LF	23	72	21	0.292	2	13	0.354	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.244	0.307	0.381	OK
Jose Siri	CF	22	52	15	0.288	3	12	0.351	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.226	0.288	0.415	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	36	9	4	4	1	6	0.250

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zack Gelof	3B	55	199	57	0.286	11	29	0.336	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.206	0.257	0.408	OK
Nick Kurtz	1B	74	268	78	0.291	18	57	0.438	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.292	0.420	0.578	OK
Shea Langeliers	C	68	283	78	0.276	19	39	0.340	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.248	0.306	0.463	OK
Tyler Soderstrom	LF	72	264	62	0.235	13	40	0.332	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.242	0.335	0.513	OK
Jacob Wilson	SS	45	183	52	0.284	3	23	0.312	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.259	0.296	0.362	OK
Carlos Cortes	DH	60	177	50	0.282	6	21	0.366	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.150	0.228	0.263	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	62	183	34	0.186	4	19	0.266	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.239	0.305	0.360	OK
Henry Bolte	CF	30	102	32	0.314	2	9	0.374	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.268	0.313	0.421	OK
Jeff McNeil	2B	67	217	51	0.235	3	19	0.306	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.230	0.302	0.354	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	31	4	3	3	5	7	0.129

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
José Soriano	Starter	15	84.9	2.86	1.260	9.8	92	5.2	4	3	3	4	5	102	5.2	5	3
Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	14	12.4	3.63	1.129	12.3	17	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	26	28.7	3.76	1.394	11.0	35	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	18	1.0	0	0
Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever	32	21.2	2.12	1.698	12.3	29	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jeffrey Springs	Starter	15	77.6	5.22	1.340	7.9	68	4.2	4	2	2	1	4	86	4.2	4	2
Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	15	13.9	6.47	1.439	12.9	20	1.1	3	2	2	0	0	7	1.1	0	2
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	38	28.2	3.83	1.950	13.7	43	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	32	26.4	5.45	1.553	10.6	31	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Justin Sterner	Middle Reliever	35	29.1	3.71	1.237	10.5	34	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

LAA wins 4-3

Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves

MIL 45-27 (5.32 RPG / 3.71 RA)

5 - 1

ATL 46-28 (4.97 RPG / 3.69 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 5-1 TARGET: MIL 3 - 1 ATL (MIL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	4
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.295

Avg Runs1.6

Avg Allowed2.7

Run Diff-70.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.279

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-114.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIL Season Quality

Record45-27

Win%0.625

Run Diff116

RD/Game1.611

ATL Season Quality

Record46-28

Win%0.622

Run Diff95

RD/Game1.284

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3324; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Christian Yelich	DH	41	162	44	0.272	5	24	0.346	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.244	0.315	0.398	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	38	163	50	0.307	10	28	0.360	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.285	0.333	0.575	OK
Brice Turang	2B	67	252	67	0.266	11	44	0.381	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.239	0.345	0.450	OK
William Contreras	C	67	265	77	0.291	6	43	0.349	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.286	0.346	0.411	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	59	190	46	0.242	4	29	0.338	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.257	0.333	0.480	OK
Andrew Vaughn	1B	33	101	35	0.347	2	19	0.426	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.285	0.383	0.476	OK
Blake Perkins	RF	34	78	11	0.141	1	10	0.221	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.136	0.205	0.277	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	3	9	3	0.333	0	2	0.364	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.258	0.329	0.348	OK
Joey Ortiz	3B	51	148	30	0.203	1	14	0.290	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.208	0.288	0.291	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	31	4	5	5	5	4	0.129

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drake Baldwin	C	51	199	60	0.302	15	40	0.383	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.260	0.335	0.520	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	74	282	78	0.277	10	37	0.330	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.238	0.284	0.347	OK
Matt Olson	1B	74	287	79	0.275	20	51	0.345	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.260	0.325	0.467	OK
Dominic Smith	DH	55	159	45	0.283	6	29	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.242	0.279	0.371	OK
Mauricio Dubón	CF	70	256	67	0.262	7	41	0.318	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.251	0.301	0.401	OK
Austin Riley	3B	74	266	56	0.211	8	35	0.291	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.221	0.287	0.348	OK
Mike Yastrzemski	RF	65	184	42	0.228	3	17	0.311	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.212	0.288	0.314	OK
Eli White	LF	37	87	20	0.230	3	14	0.277	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.225	0.272	0.412	OK
Jorge Mateo	SS	37	96	27	0.281	4	11	0.324	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.137	0.185	0.253	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	4	1	1	3	8	0.129

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jacob Misiorowski	Starter	14	86.3	1.36	0.742	13.7	131	6.2	2	0	0	3	8	102	6.2	8	0
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	26	26.0	2.77	1.038	12.5	36	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	27	23.8	3.78	1.303	10.2	27	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	17	1.0	0	1
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	33	40.8	3.09	1.471	13.5	61	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	23	0.1	0	0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Martín Pérez	Starter	14	60.6	2.97	1.073	7.6	51	5.2	3	3	3	3	4	92	5.2	4	3
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	22	22.4	1.21	1.027	10.8	27	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	18	1.0	0	0
Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever	30	29.5	0.61	0.814	7.9	26	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	33	28.4	1.27	0.704	12.7	40	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	11	1.0	0	1
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	20	25.9	2.43	1.120	11.5	33	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	17	0.1	0	1

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-1

Minnesota Twins @ Arizona Diamondbacks

MIN 36-40 (4.78 RPG / 5.09 RA)

1 - 5

ARI 38-36 (4.22 RPG / 4.47 RA)

WINNER: ARI wins 5-1 TARGET: MIN 2 - 3 ARI (ARI) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	5
ARI	0	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	x	5	8

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.224

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-173.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.277

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed2.5

Run Diff-107.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIN Season Quality

Record36-40

Win%0.474

Run Diff-24

RD/Game-0.316

ARI Season Quality

Record38-36

Win%0.514

Run Diff-19

RD/Game-0.257

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1188; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trevor Larnach	LF	58	187	51	0.273	5	20	0.364	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.199	0.281	0.355	OK
Byron Buxton	CF	64	263	71	0.270	23	36	0.330	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.267	0.316	0.557	OK
Kody Clemens	RF	62	220	55	0.250	11	28	0.315	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.175	0.229	0.362	OK
Josh Bell	DH	73	266	65	0.244	8	46	0.300	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.285	0.334	0.464	OK
Royce Lewis	1B	42	146	29	0.199	6	20	0.283	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.233	0.304	0.407	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	69	260	62	0.238	12	41	0.292	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.234	0.284	0.429	OK
Victor Caratini	C	53	167	38	0.228	4	25	0.317	4	2	2	1	1	2	0	1.000	0.278	0.346	0.437	OK
Tristan Gray	SS	46	129	31	0.240	4	27	0.284	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.227	0.273	0.330	OK
Luke Keaschall	2B	69	246	62	0.252	2	24	0.332	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.261	0.343	0.395	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	5	1	1	2	6	0.156

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ketel Marte	2B	69	283	73	0.258	11	43	0.308	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.269	0.316	0.415	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	71	244	60	0.246	4	25	0.355	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.265	0.374	0.410	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	71	265	73	0.275	13	38	0.364	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.249	0.323	0.511	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	49	166	46	0.277	6	24	0.359	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.288	0.361	0.494	OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	LF	27	100	22	0.220	1	12	0.273	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.223	0.274	0.319	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	69	234	55	0.235	8	31	0.313	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.213	0.276	0.328	OK
Ildemaro Vargas	1B	62	230	60	0.261	7	37	0.299	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.195	0.252	0.306	OK
Jordan Lawlar	CF	11	34	10	0.294	1	4	0.400	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.255	0.316	0.401	OK
LuJames Groover	DH	9	31	5	0.161	0	2	0.235	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.201	0.254	0.266	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	8	5	5	3	6	0.250

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Connor Prielipp	Starter	10	49.2	5.30	1.362	9.3	51	5.0	6	5	5	3	2	93	5.0	2	5
Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	20	14.4	1.87	1.250	13.1	21	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0
Anthony Banda	Middle Reliever	34	22.3	6.05	1.749	10.9	27	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Travis Adams	Middle Reliever	12	15.5	6.97	1.548	11.6	20	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	17	0.2	1	0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael Soroka	Starter	14	79.6	3.17	1.093	8.9	79	6.2	2	0	0	1	6	94	6.2	6	0
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1	1.0	9.00	2.000	0.0	0	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	17	0.1	0	0
Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	2	1.2	15.00	3.333	7.5	1	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	20	1.0	0	1

Game Summary

ARI wins 5-1

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies

PIT 38-37 (5.05 RPG / 4.87 RA)

8 - 5

COL 28-47 (4.59 RPG / 5.79 RA)

WINNER: PIT wins 8-5 TARGET: PIT 7 - 6 COL (PIT) Confidence: 52.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	0	2	0	0	0	3	0	0	3	8	12
COL	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	5	8

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.333

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff-142.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

COL Recent Form

Win%0.185

Avg Runs1.5

Avg Allowed5.0

Run Diff-228.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

PIT Season Quality

Record38-37

Win%0.507

Run Diff14

RD/Game0.187

COL Season Quality

Record28-47

Win%0.373

Run Diff-90

RD/Game-1.200

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.5867; margin adjustment: -0.6664; applied: True

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Spencer Horwitz	1B	69	228	64	0.281	9	32	0.389	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.264	0.369	0.431	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	68	259	76	0.293	2	32	0.341	5	4	1	1	3	0	0	0.250	0.255	0.290	0.330	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	75	269	76	0.283	10	47	0.400	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.310	0.406	0.577	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	RF	59	221	64	0.290	11	41	0.348	5	4	1	1	0	1	2	0.250	0.288	0.337	0.458	OK
Marcell Ozuna	DH	50	192	38	0.198	6	24	0.274	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.237	0.295	0.370	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	69	266	64	0.241	18	49	0.326	5	4	3	1	1	0	0	0.750	0.230	0.315	0.465	OK
Endy Rodríguez	C	22	60	16	0.267	3	8	0.380	5	4	2	1	2	1	0	0.500	0.283	0.388	0.509	OK
Jared Triolo	SS	39	126	29	0.230	0	7	0.302	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.233	0.297	0.301	OK
Billy Cook	CF	11	22	4	0.182	0	0	0.182	4	3	1	1	1	0	2	0.333	0.115	0.128	0.163	OK
TEAM TOTALS									44	38	12	8	8	3	7	0.316

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	LF	54	187	54	0.289	4	26	0.328	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.279	0.321	0.425	OK
Willi Castro	2B	62	217	61	0.281	5	31	0.357	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0.200	0.293	0.366	0.477	OK
Hunter Goodman	C	69	263	66	0.251	21	39	0.322	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.263	0.319	0.545	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	69	252	70	0.278	10	36	0.353	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.262	0.323	0.488	OK
Tyler Freeman	RF	45	158	42	0.266	3	20	0.341	4	4	3	1	4	0	0	0.750	0.168	0.212	0.266	OK
Cole Carrigg	CF	9	33	7	0.212	3	8	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.223	0.321	0.426	OK
Sterlin Thompson	DH	23	62	15	0.242	2	9	0.319	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.160	0.216	0.323	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	67	243	52	0.214	5	24	0.262	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.207	0.252	0.328	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	69	205	52	0.254	4	20	0.349	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.285	0.369	0.456	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	35	8	5	5	4	7	0.229

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bubba Chandler	Starter	14	66.6	4.86	1.411	9.2	68	4.2	6	4	4	3	5	99	4.2	5	4
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	31	29.7	2.42	0.875	11.2	37	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	31	27.9	4.19	1.398	8.4	26	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Evan Sisk	Middle Reliever	28	26.4	2.39	1.364	13.3	39	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	27	23.1	4.29	1.602	14.0	36	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	23	1.0	1	1

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kyle Freeland	Starter	12	56.1	8.34	1.783	7.9	49	4.2	9	5	5	2	5	95	4.2	5	5
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	21	34.9	2.58	1.175	8.3	32	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	25	2.0	0	0
Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	30	27.1	7.31	2.030	12.3	37	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	19	17.8	7.08	2.135	8.1	16	1.0	3	3	3	1	1	26	1.0	1	3

Game Summary

PIT wins 8-5

San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers

SD 38-35 (3.84 RPG / 3.96 RA)

1 - 3

TEX 35-39 (3.95 RPG / 4.11 RA)

WINNER: TEX wins 3-1 TARGET: SD 1 - 2 TEX (TEX) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	6
TEX	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	x	3	5

SD Recent Form

Win%0.254

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-148.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.262

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-140.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

SD Season Quality

Record38-35

Win%0.521

Run Diff-9

RD/Game-0.123

TEX Season Quality

Record35-39

Win%0.473

Run Diff-12

RD/Game-0.162

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1102; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	2B	71	278	79	0.284	2	25	0.349	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	0.250	0.273	0.333	0.376	OK
Samad Taylor	RF	10	35	12	0.343	1	8	0.410	4	2	1	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.177	0.253	0.277	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	69	268	57	0.213	8	30	0.277	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.239	0.292	0.418	OK
Manny Machado	3B	71	260	46	0.177	12	36	0.258	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.201	0.280	0.367	OK
Gavin Sheets	LF	66	213	48	0.225	11	30	0.315	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.223	0.305	0.408	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	69	243	55	0.226	8	28	0.307	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.216	0.292	0.303	OK
Ty France	1B	46	143	35	0.245	6	19	0.294	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.199	0.240	0.335	OK
Will Wagner	DH	8	18	5	0.278	0	0	0.435	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.226	0.366	0.343	OK
Rodolfo Durán	C	17	44	7	0.159	3	6	0.288	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.202	0.299	0.431	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	1	1	3	9	0.182

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Joc Pederson	DH	68	186	45	0.242	9	25	0.342	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.159	0.251	0.319	OK
Josh Jung	3B	69	266	80	0.301	8	30	0.358	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.251	0.304	0.371	OK
Wyatt Langford	CF	32	127	31	0.244	4	9	0.289	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.246	0.291	0.435	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	72	277	71	0.256	7	25	0.327	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.252	0.301	0.400	OK
Ezequiel Duran	SS	63	216	60	0.278	5	37	0.331	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.155	0.211	0.293	OK
Alejandro Osuna	LF	40	104	25	0.240	0	9	0.347	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.235	0.302	0.296	OK
Jake Burger	1B	72	266	66	0.248	12	42	0.306	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.253	0.314	0.432	OK
Nicky Lopez	2B	17	48	15	0.312	1	5	0.353	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.164	0.197	0.230	OK
Elias Díaz	C	7	18	7	0.389	0	3	0.389	3	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.246	0.268	0.439	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	29	5	3	3	4	4	0.172

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Randy Vásquez	Starter	14	72.7	3.71	1.348	7.2	58	5.0	4	3	3	3	1	88	5.0	1	3
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	34	30.7	4.69	1.270	12.0	41	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	30	24.0	1.88	1.333	6.4	17	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	31	29.9	2.41	1.371	9.6	32	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	15	1.0	1	0

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jacob deGrom	Starter	14	75.5	3.22	1.007	10.6	89	6.0	5	1	1	3	7	105	6.0	7	1
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	25	31.7	0.85	0.505	9.9	35	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0
Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	25	27.7	1.95	0.866	6.8	21	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	26	19.4	6.49	1.649	12.1	26	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	13	0.2	2	0

Game Summary

TEX wins 3-1

San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins

SF 32-43 (4.23 RPG / 4.81 RA)

1 - 3

MIA 37-38 (4.32 RPG / 4.39 RA)

WINNER: MIA wins 3-1 TARGET: SF 1 - 2 MIA (MIA) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	6
MIA	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	x	3	7

SF Recent Form

Win%0.231

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff-175.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.258

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff-125.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

SF Season Quality

Record32-43

Win%0.427

Run Diff-44

RD/Game-0.587

MIA Season Quality

Record37-38

Win%0.493

Run Diff-5

RD/Game-0.067

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.62; margin adjustment: 0.2604; applied: True

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Luis Arraez	2B	71	283	95	0.336	3	29	0.369	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.294	0.327	0.459	OK
Bryce Eldridge	1B	34	114	37	0.325	6	17	0.414	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.294	0.386	0.525	OK
Matt Chapman	3B	73	267	66	0.247	7	42	0.330	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.231	0.309	0.405	OK
Rafael Devers	DH	74	285	69	0.242	10	35	0.306	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.245	0.319	0.458	OK
Jung Hoo Lee	RF	65	248	82	0.331	4	26	0.362	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.271	0.298	0.411	OK
Willy Adames	SS	72	286	66	0.231	13	31	0.273	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.204	0.241	0.414	OK
Casey Schmitt	LF	66	262	74	0.282	15	37	0.313	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.280	0.297	0.438	OK
Drew Gilbert	CF	50	145	32	0.221	3	14	0.280	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.193	0.258	0.324	OK
Daniel Susac	C	29	92	26	0.283	0	13	0.337	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.149	0.197	0.240	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	33	6	1	1	0	10	0.182

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Liam Hicks	1B	72	243	68	0.280	13	52	0.362	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.281	0.352	0.422	OK
Owen Caissie	RF	62	177	37	0.209	7	36	0.264	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.210	0.256	0.405	OK
Heriberto Hernández	DH	45	139	32	0.230	6	26	0.285	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.251	0.298	0.396	OK
Kyle Stowers	LF	51	190	43	0.226	7	27	0.308	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.249	0.313	0.464	OK
Otto Lopez	SS	74	292	98	0.336	5	32	0.368	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.287	0.331	0.426	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	72	253	51	0.202	4	18	0.326	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.224	0.320	0.359	OK
Connor Norby	3B	60	188	39	0.207	4	16	0.321	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.224	0.317	0.362	OK
Joe Mack	C	33	100	26	0.260	3	16	0.327	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.266	0.337	0.471	OK
Javier Sanoja	2B	52	166	40	0.241	2	24	0.280	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.195	0.234	0.296	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	31	7	3	3	2	5	0.226

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Landen Roupp	Starter	14	72.0	4.38	1.333	10.2	82	5.1	6	3	3	2	5	98	5.1	5	3
Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	31	27.9	3.55	1.290	12.3	38	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0
Ryan Walker	Middle Reliever	19	16.0	6.19	1.875	9.6	17	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	17	0.0	0	0
Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	23	16.4	4.94	1.890	14.8	27	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	5	1.2	0	0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Lake Bachar	Starter	23	37.7	3.10	0.928	10.7	45	5.0	3	1	1	0	5	72	5.0	5	1
Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	22	18.6	7.26	1.559	14.0	29	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	30	25.7	3.85	1.868	11.9	34	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	18	1.0	3	0
Anthony Bender	Middle Reliever	30	24.2	3.72	1.157	13.4	36	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	28	27.3	3.30	1.136	12.2	37	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

MIA wins 3-1

St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals

STL 40-33 (4.55 RPG / 4.51 RA)

6 - 2

KC 31-45 (4.14 RPG / 4.71 RA)

WINNER: STL wins 6-2 TARGET: STL 5 - 2 KC (STL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	0	3	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	6	8
KC	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	7

STL Recent Form

Win%0.131

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-102.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

KC Recent Form

Win%0.197

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff-173.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

STL Season Quality

Record40-33

Win%0.548

Run Diff3

RD/Game0.041

KC Season Quality

Record31-45

Win%0.408

Run Diff-43

RD/Game-0.566

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.817; margin adjustment: -0.3431; applied: True

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	67	262	70	0.267	10	30	0.370	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.284	0.362	0.421	OK
Iván Herrera	C	72	265	67	0.253	9	30	0.390	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.232	0.333	0.370	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	71	280	78	0.279	13	53	0.341	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.250	0.306	0.468	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	71	280	82	0.293	17	54	0.348	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.255	0.303	0.436	OK
Lars Nootbaar	LF	12	41	11	0.268	2	6	0.367	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.263	0.363	0.417	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	64	240	58	0.242	2	26	0.315	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.271	0.336	0.367	OK
Jimmy Crooks	DH	12	33	6	0.182	1	6	0.289	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.234	0.332	0.391	OK
Blaze Jordan	3B	7	26	8	0.308	1	5	0.333	4	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.237	0.271	0.444	OK
Nathan Church	CF	50	174	45	0.259	5	18	0.297	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.250	0.298	0.361	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	34	8	6	6	4	7	0.235

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	C	67	230	55	0.239	9	38	0.305	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.267	0.323	0.464	OK
Lane Thomas	CF	56	151	35	0.232	5	19	0.354	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.244	0.349	0.428	OK
Jac Caglianone	1B	69	234	61	0.261	9	22	0.332	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.174	0.235	0.323	OK
Salvador Perez	DH	69	271	57	0.210	10	27	0.253	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.213	0.240	0.339	OK
Michael Massey	2B	55	164	42	0.256	7	24	0.277	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.150	0.183	0.310	OK
Nick Loftin	3B	38	110	27	0.245	1	20	0.338	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.265	0.349	0.449	OK
John Rave	RF	1	4	2	0.500	1	1	0.500	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.096	0.107	0.726	MODERATE
Isaac Collins	LF	64	204	45	0.221	3	21	0.337	4	4	1	1	1	0	3	0.250	0.225	0.319	0.318	OK
Tyler Tolbert	SS	11	19	4	0.211	0	0	0.318	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.116	0.227	0.161	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	7	2	2	2	9	0.206

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael McGreevy	Starter	14	77.4	3.02	1.124	5.9	51	5.2	3	1	1	2	6	96	5.2	6	1
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	31	29.7	3.94	1.279	9.7	32	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	31	25.9	3.47	1.313	9.4	27	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	33	25.0	5.04	1.680	11.5	32	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Seth Lugo	Starter	14	77.7	3.94	1.377	7.6	66	5.1	8	6	6	2	4	101	5.1	4	6
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	31	31.1	4.34	1.511	10.1	35	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	28	25.7	4.90	1.790	8.1	23	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	20	1.0	2	0
Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	31	27.5	2.95	1.127	9.8	30	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

STL wins 6-2

Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs

TOR 37-39 (4.05 RPG / 4.41 RA)

4 - 1

CHC 40-36 (4.74 RPG / 4.43 RA)

WINNER: TOR wins 4-1 TARGET: TOR 2 - 1 CHC (TOR) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	4	8
CHC	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	10

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.227

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff-147.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.103

Avg Runs0.7

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff-197.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TOR Season Quality

Record37-38

Win%0.493

Run Diff-13

RD/Game-0.173

CHC Season Quality

Record39-36

Win%0.520

Run Diff9

RD/Game0.120

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3333; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
George Springer	DH	53	202	44	0.218	7	19	0.312	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.234	0.316	0.397	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	70	258	72	0.279	4	30	0.360	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.245	0.319	0.370	OK
Jesús Sánchez	RF	68	202	58	0.287	7	29	0.324	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.188	0.229	0.345	OK
Yohendrick Pinango	LF	40	123	36	0.293	4	17	0.336	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.255	0.309	0.407	OK
Alejandro Kirk	C	9	35	7	0.200	1	4	0.282	4	2	1	1	0	1	0	0.500	0.236	0.308	0.366	OK
Nathan Lukes	CF	40	128	40	0.312	2	14	0.360	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.287	0.321	0.428	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	72	265	61	0.230	15	42	0.311	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.224	0.303	0.421	OK
Davis Schneider	2B	36	84	14	0.167	3	11	0.300	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.212	0.323	0.426	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	70	236	54	0.229	7	33	0.272	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.244	0.266	0.393	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	35	8	4	4	3	10	0.229

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	74	279	78	0.280	15	37	0.354	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.292	0.342	0.579	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	73	288	73	0.253	6	23	0.345	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.249	0.340	0.348	OK
Michael Busch	1B	73	262	66	0.252	8	42	0.382	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.237	0.357	0.390	OK
Seiya Suzuki	DH	60	218	57	0.261	10	29	0.349	4	4	3	0	0	0	1	0.750	0.277	0.357	0.437	OK
Ian Happ	LF	70	264	60	0.227	16	37	0.337	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.217	0.308	0.433	OK
Matt Shaw	RF	41	107	29	0.271	3	15	0.313	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.275	0.315	0.456	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	72	290	68	0.234	4	34	0.309	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.199	0.270	0.283	OK
Carson Kelly	C	52	173	48	0.277	3	19	0.349	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.235	0.300	0.368	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	69	229	41	0.179	8	30	0.285	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.181	0.283	0.324	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	37	10	1	1	0	11	0.270

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kevin Gausman	Starter	15	84.9	3.50	1.060	9.1	86	6.0	8	1	1	0	9	106	6.0	9	1
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	36	36.5	0.99	1.068	13.6	55	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	36	32.2	1.96	1.118	5.6	20	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	35	29.3	5.84	1.672	16.3	53	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ben Brown	Starter	19	60.6	1.78	0.990	9.1	61	6.0	4	1	1	2	5	108	6.0	5	1
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	32	28.4	3.49	1.444	11.7	37	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	27	1.1	2	0
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	21	15.7	4.59	1.401	13.2	23	1.0	2	2	2	1	2	23	1.0	2	2
Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	28	19.2	7.50	2.240	12.7	27	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	17	0.2	1	1

Game Summary

TOR wins 4-1

Washington Nationals @ Tampa Bay Rays

WAS 39-36 (5.43 RPG / 5.23 RA)

0 - 4

TB 41-30 (4.44 RPG / 4.37 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 4-0 TARGET: WAS 2 - 3 TB (TB) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
WAS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	x	4	7

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.266

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff-138.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

TB Recent Form

Win%0.217

Avg Runs0.8

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff-137.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

WAS Season Quality

Record39-36

Win%0.520

Run Diff15

RD/Game0.200

TB Season Quality

Record41-30

Win%0.577

Run Diff5

RD/Game0.070

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0434; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	RF	75	285	79	0.277	20	48	0.407	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.275	0.386	0.520	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	69	231	60	0.260	9	45	0.283	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.175	0.200	0.338	OK
Jose Fernandez	DH	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.240	0.275	0.340
CJ Abrams	SS	73	271	77	0.284	14	54	0.369	4	3	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.265	0.323	0.431	OK
Keibert Ruiz	C	46	149	42	0.282	6	29	0.301	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.280	0.302	0.481	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	74	292	75	0.257	8	37	0.316	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.241	0.297	0.393	OK
Nasim Nuñez	2B	64	206	46	0.223	0	23	0.312	4	4	2	0	0	0	2	0.500	0.277	0.364	0.380	OK
Jorbit Vivas	3B	51	132	32	0.242	1	10	0.320	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.248	0.314	0.342	OK
Jacob Young	CF	64	226	53	0.235	8	28	0.282	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.217	0.257	0.352	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	7	0	0	2	10	0.206

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	68	262	83	0.317	12	47	0.397	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.256	0.326	0.391	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	70	254	70	0.276	11	48	0.379	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.263	0.353	0.389	OK
Jonny DeLuca	RF	37	119	32	0.269	2	19	0.298	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.260	0.289	0.408	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	71	268	73	0.272	15	33	0.370	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.248	0.338	0.431	OK
Cedric Mullins	CF	62	212	42	0.198	6	21	0.288	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.235	0.308	0.335	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	65	255	66	0.259	0	14	0.293	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.131	0.173	0.185	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	49	145	34	0.234	1	21	0.341	4	4	1	1	3	0	0	0.250	0.145	0.242	0.239	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	51	160	34	0.212	0	17	0.312	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.214	0.305	0.302	OK
Hunter Feduccia	C	36	83	21	0.253	1	6	0.323	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.144	0.215	0.215	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	7	4	4	4	5	0.226

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
PJ Poulin	Starter	28	22.9	3.93	1.790	7.1	18	4.0	3	2	2	1	1	65	4.0	1	2
Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	20	19.7	3.65	1.320	10.5	23	2.0	1	0	0	1	1	32	2.0	1	0
Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	21	18.7	2.89	1.123	6.7	14	2.0	3	2	2	2	3	42	2.0	3	2

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Griffin Jax	Starter	19	41.2	3.28	1.359	9.0	41	5.1	4	0	0	2	8	99	5.1	8	0
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	30	27.4	1.97	0.985	10.5	32	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	31	28.2	3.19	1.064	8.3	26	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	23	1.2	1	0
Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	20	15.7	5.73	1.592	14.3	25	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

TB wins 4-0

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Dodgers

BAL Recent Form

LAD Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

LAD Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners

BOS Recent Form

SEA Recent Form

BOS Season Quality

SEA Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers

CHW Recent Form

DET Recent Form

CHW Season Quality

DET Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees

CIN Recent Form

NYY Recent Form

CIN Season Quality

NYY Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros

CLE Recent Form

HOU Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

HOU Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics

LAA Recent Form

OAK Recent Form

LAA Season Quality

OAK Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves

MIL Recent Form

ATL Recent Form

MIL Season Quality

ATL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Minnesota Twins @ Arizona Diamondbacks