MLB Predictions — June 18, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
BAL @ SEA	3 - 4	2 - 3	SEA	SEA	SEA wins 3-2	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CHW @ NYY	4 - 3	4 - 3	CHW	CHW	CHW wins 4-3	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CLE @ MIL	1 - 2	1 - 2	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 2-1	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
LAA @ OAK	3 - 4	4 - 7	OAK	OAK	OAK wins 7-4	59%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIN @ TEX	3 - 2	4 - 1	MIN	MIN	MIN wins 4-1	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
NYM @ PHI	4 - 3	4 - 2	NYM	NYM	NYM wins 4-2	59%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SF @ ATL	4 - 5	4 - 5	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 5-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
STL @ KC	4 - 3	6 - 1	STL	STL	STL wins 6-1	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TOR @ BOS	2 - 1	2 - 1	TOR	TOR	TOR wins 2-1	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners

BAL 35-41 (4.59 RPG / 5.07 RA)

2 - 3

SEA 39-37 (4.21 RPG / 3.91 RA)

WINNER: SEA wins 3-2 TARGET: BAL 3 - 4 SEA (SEA) Confidence: 55.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3
SEA	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	x	3	9

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.227

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-162.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.317

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-106.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

BAL Season Quality

Record34-40

Win%0.459

Run Diff-35

RD/Game-0.473

SEA Season Quality

Record38-36

Win%0.514

Run Diff22

RD/Game0.297

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8514; margin adjustment: 0.3576; applied: True

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Taylor Ward	LF	72	267	69	0.258	3	19	0.399	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.236	0.360	0.345	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	72	299	67	0.224	14	35	0.292	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.233	0.296	0.425	OK
Adley Rutschman	DH	52	195	51	0.262	8	40	0.332	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.240	0.309	0.415	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	73	277	71	0.256	16	48	0.339	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.264	0.350	0.476	OK
Samuel Basallo	C	60	201	53	0.264	10	30	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.252	0.308	0.430	OK
Leody Taveras	RF	59	189	48	0.254	2	29	0.330	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.150	0.224	0.281	OK
Colton Cowser	CF	57	145	32	0.221	6	20	0.303	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.217	0.294	0.394	OK
Blaze Alexander	3B	51	153	48	0.314	2	19	0.365	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.296	0.339	0.436	OK
Jackson Holliday	2B	25	76	15	0.197	4	12	0.276	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.195	0.274	0.378	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	30	3	2	2	5	7	0.100

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
J.P. Crawford	3B	57	199	45	0.226	10	23	0.357	5	3	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.263	0.374	0.450	OK
Cal Raleigh	DH	43	167	28	0.168	7	20	0.254	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.195	0.277	0.304	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	68	269	68	0.253	8	32	0.315	5	5	3	1	1	0	0	0.600	0.235	0.290	0.373	OK
Dominic Canzone	RF	64	167	49	0.293	11	31	0.358	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.314	0.376	0.626	OK
Cole Young	2B	75	273	70	0.256	6	33	0.318	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.257	0.300	0.389	OK
Colt Emerson	SS	25	83	19	0.229	6	14	0.297	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.232	0.279	0.492	OK
Mitch Garver	C	31	90	18	0.200	3	11	0.321	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.224	0.328	0.367	OK
Victor Robles	CF	17	50	13	0.260	0	2	0.288	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.216	0.253	0.307	OK
Miles Mastrobuoni	LF	7	20	4	0.200	0	1	0.261	4	3	2	1	0	1	1	0.667	0.218	0.290	0.297	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	33	9	3	3	6	3	0.273

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shane Baz	Starter	14	79.2	4.20	1.439	7.6	67	6.0	7	3	3	2	2	105	6.0	2	3
Ryan Helsley	Middle Reliever	13	11.2	4.02	1.429	13.7	17	1.0	0	0	0	3	1	25	1.0	1	0
Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	32	26.4	2.05	0.833	10.9	32	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	20	1.0	0	0
Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	19	14.0	7.07	1.643	9.6	15	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	10	0.0	0	0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bryan Woo	Starter	14	81.3	4.32	1.046	8.7	79	5.2	2	1	1	2	6	97	5.2	6	1
Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	27	23.7	5.32	1.435	14.4	38	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	34	27.6	3.26	1.558	8.8	27	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	15	0.2	1	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	34	26.5	2.72	1.623	9.5	28	1.1	1	1	1	2	0	28	1.1	0	1

Game Summary

SEA wins 3-2

Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees

CHW 39-34 (4.73 RPG / 4.71 RA)

4 - 3

NYY 45-28 (5.22 RPG / 3.6 RA)

WINNER: CHW wins 4-3 TARGET: CHW 4 - 3 NYY (CHW) Confidence: 56.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	4	7
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	10

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.313

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed2.3

Run Diff-68.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.333

Avg Runs1.6

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-69.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CHW Season Quality

Record38-34

Win%0.528

Run Diff-3

RD/Game-0.042

NYY Season Quality

Record45-27

Win%0.625

Run Diff122

RD/Game1.694

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.8819; margin adjustment: 0.7904; applied: True

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Chase Meidroth	2B	69	263	73	0.278	6	25	0.345	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.255	0.312	0.387	OK
Randal Grichuk	DH	29	62	19	0.306	6	17	0.348	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.264	0.303	0.465	OK
Miguel Vargas	1B	70	258	63	0.244	16	44	0.362	4	3	1	1	3	1	0	0.333	0.234	0.333	0.413	OK
Colson Montgomery	3B	69	253	57	0.225	19	44	0.319	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.217	0.286	0.502	OK
Edgar Quero	C	45	137	27	0.197	2	15	0.253	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.222	0.272	0.298	OK
Braden Montgomery	RF	7	27	6	0.222	1	4	0.250	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.191	0.225	0.327	OK
Luisangel Acuña	SS	44	119	24	0.202	0	8	0.254	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.237	0.276	0.302	OK
Junior Perez	LF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.240	0.310	0.394
Tristan Peters	CF	62	177	52	0.294	3	21	0.349	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.155	0.215	0.326	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	7	4	4	2	7	0.212

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ben Rice	1B	66	247	72	0.291	20	48	0.391	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.270	0.370	0.548	OK
Paul Goldschmidt	DH	45	166	50	0.301	11	36	0.361	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.305	0.353	0.566	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	71	261	73	0.280	11	49	0.373	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.288	0.375	0.515	OK
Jasson Domínguez	RF	11	43	9	0.209	2	5	0.261	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.228	0.266	0.441	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	68	249	57	0.229	10	30	0.310	5	4	2	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.230	0.318	0.431	OK
Spencer Jones	CF	18	46	11	0.239	2	7	0.340	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.270	0.365	0.468	OK
José Caballero	SS	60	201	53	0.264	7	25	0.318	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.267	0.309	0.461	OK
Ryan McMahon	3B	60	177	37	0.209	7	22	0.267	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.208	0.272	0.332	OK
J.C. Escarra	C	25	77	15	0.195	0	7	0.241	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.217	0.266	0.354	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	37	10	3	3	4	8	0.270

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bryan Hudson	Starter	24	20.9	1.72	1.483	9.9	23	5.0	3	0	0	3	4	84	5.0	4	0
Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	2	1.1	16.36	3.636	0.0	0	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	1.48	1.311	11.8	8	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1	2.1	8.57	1.905	4.3	1	1.0	4	2	2	1	1	24	1.0	1	2
Brandon Eisert	Middle Reliever	12	11.5	3.91	1.391	10.2	13	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	19	1.0	2	0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Weathers	Starter	13	72.0	4.50	1.208	10.1	81	5.2	6	4	4	2	4	97	5.2	4	4
David Bednar	Middle Reliever	29	27.8	3.88	1.475	11.7	36	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0
Camilo Doval	Middle Reliever	31	22.7	5.95	1.366	9.9	25	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	34	23.4	2.69	1.667	15.4	40	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

CHW wins 4-3

Cleveland Guardians @ Milwaukee Brewers

CLE 40-35 (3.97 RPG / 4.07 RA)

1 - 2

MIL 45-27 (5.32 RPG / 3.71 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 2-1 TARGET: CLE 1 - 2 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 56.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	4
MIL	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	x	2	3

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.231

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-126.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.344

Avg Runs1.6

Avg Allowed2.7

Run Diff-64.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CLE Season Quality

Record39-35

Win%0.527

Run Diff-9

RD/Game-0.122

MIL Season Quality

Record45-26

Win%0.634

Run Diff118

RD/Game1.662

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.9438; margin adjustment: 0.8164; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Travis Bazzana	2B	43	157	39	0.248	4	17	0.346	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.214	0.307	0.350	OK
David Fry	LF	40	97	22	0.227	3	8	0.324	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.213	0.307	0.340	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	70	229	61	0.266	5	32	0.342	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.209	0.270	0.335	OK
Rhys Hoskins	1B	54	165	30	0.182	6	23	0.313	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.185	0.297	0.351	OK
Kyle Manzardo	DH	63	195	46	0.236	7	22	0.321	4	3	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.228	0.307	0.350	OK
Gabriel Arias	3B	10	31	8	0.258	2	5	0.303	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.272	0.316	0.483	OK
Stuart Fairchild	CF	7	14	3	0.214	0	1	0.450	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.130	0.339	0.183	OK
Kahlil Watson	RF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	2	1	0	0	1	1	0.500	0.237	0.300	0.389
Austin Hedges	C	32	96	26	0.271	1	9	0.336	3	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.244	0.307	0.358	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	4	1	1	3	11	0.129

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Christian Yelich	DH	40	158	43	0.272	5	24	0.345	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.251	0.320	0.407	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	37	159	50	0.314	10	28	0.364	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.297	0.345	0.594	OK
Brice Turang	2B	66	248	67	0.270	11	44	0.384	3	3	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.247	0.350	0.465	OK
Andrew Vaughn	1B	32	99	35	0.354	2	19	0.418	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.320	0.390	0.521	OK
Jake Bauers	RF	61	212	58	0.274	13	46	0.374	3	2	1	1	2	1	0	0.500	0.251	0.352	0.485	OK
Gary Sánchez	C	40	111	25	0.225	7	19	0.358	3	2	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.282	0.384	0.544	OK
Blake Perkins	CF	33	75	10	0.133	1	10	0.217	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.134	0.206	0.256	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	2	7	2	0.286	0	1	0.286	3	3	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.244	0.255	0.342	OK
Joey Ortiz	3B	50	145	30	0.207	1	14	0.295	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.229	0.310	0.314	OK
TEAM TOTALS									29	27	3	2	2	2	9	0.111

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Parker Messick	Starter	14	77.4	2.79	1.137	9.5	82	6.0	2	2	2	1	8	95	6.0	8	2
Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	31	31.5	2.57	1.079	14.0	49	1.2	0	0	0	1	0	25	1.2	0	0
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	22	17.1	4.21	1.462	7.4	14	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	16	0.1	1	0

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shane Drohan	Starter	14	40.8	3.75	1.225	9.7	44	5.0	4	1	1	3	5	87	5.0	5	1
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	26	26.0	2.77	1.038	12.5	36	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14	1.0	2	0
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	27	23.8	3.78	1.303	10.2	27	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.0	2	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	33	40.8	3.09	1.471	13.5	61	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.1	0	0
Grant Anderson	Middle Reliever	28	25.2	3.21	1.151	8.2	23	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	19	0.2	2	0

Game Summary

MIL wins 2-1

Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics

LAA 30-45 (4.45 RPG / 4.97 RA)

4 - 7

OAK 36-38 (4.59 RPG / 5.28 RA)

WINNER: OAK wins 7-4 TARGET: LAA 3 - 4 OAK (OAK) Confidence: 58.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAA	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	4	6
OAK	0	3	0	2	2	0	0	0	x	7	11

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.338

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-160.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.297

Avg Runs1.5

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff-165.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

LAA Season Quality

Record30-45

Win%0.400

Run Diff-39

RD/Game-0.520

OAK Season Quality

Record36-37

Win%0.493

Run Diff-43

RD/Game-0.589

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0707; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	72	285	65	0.228	15	34	0.330	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.225	0.301	0.458	OK
Nick Madrigal	2B	13	41	12	0.293	0	2	0.383	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.265	0.354	0.350	OK
Jo Adell	RF	75	293	74	0.253	10	41	0.296	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.280	0.303	0.418	OK
Vaughn Grissom	1B	40	138	33	0.239	4	26	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.251	0.311	0.435	OK
Oswald Peraza	DH	64	212	55	0.259	7	21	0.305	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.237	0.262	0.380	OK
Christian Moore	LF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.254	0.323	0.413
Denzer Guzman	3B	8	34	9	0.265	0	5	0.265	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.262	0.269	0.379	OK
Logan O'Hoppe	C	47	153	36	0.235	3	17	0.306	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.269	0.319	0.427	OK
Jose Siri	CF	21	50	15	0.300	3	12	0.364	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.236	0.299	0.427	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	4	4	3	7	0.182

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zack Gelof	3B	54	196	56	0.286	11	29	0.333	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.205	0.249	0.419	OK
Nick Kurtz	1B	73	264	77	0.292	18	57	0.440	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.288	0.421	0.579	OK
Shea Langeliers	C	67	279	77	0.276	18	36	0.341	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.245	0.304	0.450	OK
Tyler Soderstrom	LF	71	260	62	0.238	12	39	0.337	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.251	0.347	0.497	OK
Jacob Wilson	SS	44	180	51	0.283	3	23	0.309	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.248	0.282	0.355	OK
Jonah Heim	DH	19	56	15	0.268	4	6	0.317	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.291	0.350	0.548	OK
Carlos Cortes	RF	59	173	50	0.289	6	21	0.374	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.149	0.231	0.264	OK
Henry Bolte	CF	29	100	31	0.310	2	8	0.369	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.262	0.300	0.413	OK
Jeff McNeil	2B	66	213	50	0.235	3	19	0.307	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.220	0.299	0.348	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	11	7	7	2	9	0.314

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Johnson	Starter	4	8.1	15.56	2.716	5.6	5	3.0	10	5	5	0	4	68	3.0	4	5
Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	14	12.4	3.63	1.129	12.3	17	1.1	1	2	2	1	2	24	1.1	2	2
Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	26	28.7	3.76	1.394	11.0	35	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever	32	21.2	2.12	1.698	12.3	29	1.2	0	0	0	1	2	9	1.2	2	0
Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	28	30.2	5.36	1.490	12.5	42	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	20	1.0	0	0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gage Jump	Starter	4	23.1	3.12	1.126	7.4	19	5.2	2	2	2	2	3	86	5.2	3	2
Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	15	13.9	6.47	1.439	12.9	20	1.1	2	0	0	0	0	21	1.1	0	0
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	37	27.2	3.97	1.949	13.2	40	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	19	1.0	2	0
Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	32	26.4	5.45	1.553	10.6	31	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	19	1.0	2	2

Game Summary

OAK wins 7-4

Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers

MIN 36-40 (4.78 RPG / 5.09 RA)

4 - 1

TEX 35-39 (3.95 RPG / 4.11 RA)

WINNER: MIN wins 4-1 TARGET: MIN 3 - 2 TEX (MIN) Confidence: 56.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	4	9
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	6

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.239

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-177.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.246

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff-138.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIN Season Quality

Record35-40

Win%0.467

Run Diff-30

RD/Game-0.400

TEX Season Quality

Record35-38

Win%0.479

Run Diff-6

RD/Game-0.082

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.337; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trevor Larnach	LF	57	182	48	0.264	4	17	0.359	5	4	1	1	0	1	2	0.250	0.177	0.265	0.302	OK
Byron Buxton	CF	63	258	71	0.275	23	36	0.336	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.292	0.344	0.623	OK
Kody Clemens	RF	61	215	54	0.251	11	28	0.318	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.174	0.232	0.378	OK
Royce Lewis	1B	41	141	29	0.206	6	20	0.292	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.247	0.320	0.445	OK
Josh Bell	DH	72	262	63	0.240	8	45	0.295	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.266	0.312	0.452	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	68	255	61	0.239	11	38	0.293	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.227	0.278	0.404	OK
Victor Caratini	C	52	163	35	0.215	4	25	0.308	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.239	0.311	0.396	OK
Tristan Gray	SS	45	127	31	0.244	4	27	0.288	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.225	0.271	0.334	OK
Luke Keaschall	2B	68	244	60	0.246	2	24	0.322	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.229	0.305	0.360	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	36	9	4	4	2	7	0.250

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Joc Pederson	DH	67	183	45	0.246	9	25	0.347	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.177	0.268	0.335	OK
Josh Jung	3B	68	261	78	0.299	8	30	0.358	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.248	0.303	0.372	OK
Wyatt Langford	LF	31	123	29	0.236	3	8	0.277	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.243	0.283	0.406	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	71	272	70	0.257	7	25	0.329	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.250	0.303	0.404	OK
Ezequiel Duran	SS	62	213	59	0.277	4	36	0.330	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.159	0.217	0.269	OK
Josh Smith	2B	32	97	21	0.216	0	6	0.319	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.254	0.343	0.319	OK
Jake Burger	1B	71	263	65	0.247	12	42	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.247	0.303	0.429	OK
Alejandro Osuna	CF	39	102	25	0.245	0	9	0.353	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.233	0.300	0.294	OK
Kyle Higashioka	C	36	115	27	0.235	5	14	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.144	0.226	0.259	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	1	1	4	7	0.182

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Joe Ryan	Starter	15	81.4	3.21	1.007	10.2	92	6.0	4	1	1	3	7	102	6.0	7	1
Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	20	14.4	1.87	1.250	13.1	21	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Anthony Banda	Middle Reliever	34	22.3	6.05	1.749	10.9	27	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0
Travis Adams	Middle Reliever	12	15.5	6.97	1.548	11.6	20	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.0	0	0

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jack Leiter	Starter	14	73.2	5.16	1.462	9.7	79	5.1	5	2	2	1	4	95	5.1	4	2
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	25	31.7	0.85	0.505	9.9	35	1.1	2	1	1	0	0	13	1.1	0	1
Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	25	27.7	1.95	0.866	6.8	21	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	18	1.0	0	0
Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	25	18.4	6.85	1.739	12.2	25	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	14	0.2	1	1
Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	30	25.8	3.49	1.667	8.0	23	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	15	0.2	2	0

Game Summary

MIN wins 4-1

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

NYM 34-41 (4.08 RPG / 4.28 RA)

4 - 2

PHI 40-35 (4.11 RPG / 4.37 RA)

WINNER: NYM wins 4-2 TARGET: NYM 4 - 3 PHI (NYM) Confidence: 58.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	7
PHI	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	7

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.369

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff-131.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.246

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.0

Run Diff-128.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

NYM Season Quality

Record33-41

Win%0.446

Run Diff-17

RD/Game-0.230

PHI Season Quality

Record40-34

Win%0.541

Run Diff-18

RD/Game-0.243

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1284; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carson Benge	RF	69	259	65	0.251	7	26	0.312	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.232	0.281	0.361	OK
Bo Bichette	SS	73	296	75	0.253	8	42	0.297	4	4	1	1	3	0	2	0.250	0.284	0.322	0.427	OK
Juan Soto	LF	56	206	62	0.301	15	36	0.396	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.291	0.391	0.486	OK
Jared Young	1B	27	82	20	0.244	4	9	0.303	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.130	0.184	0.245	OK
A.J. Ewing	CF	34	116	29	0.250	2	11	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.237	0.320	0.390	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	73	263	59	0.224	9	27	0.284	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.225	0.293	0.367	OK
Brett Baty	3B	64	213	49	0.230	3	26	0.300	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.210	0.281	0.307	OK
MJ Melendez	DH	46	105	21	0.200	4	11	0.315	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.204	0.301	0.365	OK
Francisco Alvarez	C	42	136	34	0.250	5	13	0.322	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.243	0.307	0.371	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	4	4	3	7	0.206

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trea Turner	SS	70	292	66	0.226	7	21	0.275	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.217	0.258	0.315	OK
Kyle Schwarber	DH	70	267	65	0.243	24	42	0.359	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.246	0.350	0.475	OK
Bryce Harper	1B	72	251	63	0.251	15	40	0.363	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.217	0.341	0.392	OK
Alec Bohm	3B	69	255	58	0.227	9	38	0.281	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.237	0.282	0.392	OK
Brandon Marsh	RF	68	244	79	0.324	9	35	0.359	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.280	0.317	0.456	OK
Edmundo Sosa	LF	40	111	26	0.234	4	18	0.263	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.179	0.196	0.306	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	67	230	54	0.235	6	34	0.292	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.259	0.318	0.418	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	48	165	34	0.206	5	17	0.283	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.203	0.266	0.350	OK
Derek Hill	CF	3	9	2	0.222	0	0	0.222	3	3	2	1	1	0	1	0.667	0.122	0.158	0.199	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	34	7	2	2	1	8	0.206

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sean Manaea	Starter	15	46.9	4.99	1.407	9.8	51	5.1	5	2	2	0	7	87	5.1	7	2
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	25	21.7	4.56	1.429	15.3	37	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	29	28.9	2.49	0.969	9.3	30	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	20	1.0	0	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	30	22.1	2.44	1.538	12.6	31	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Aaron Nola	Starter	14	68.1	6.08	1.527	9.4	71	5.0	6	4	4	2	3	89	5.0	3	4
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	24	23.2	1.16	0.862	13.6	35	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14	1.0	3	0
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	30	25.1	2.51	1.315	11.1	31	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	31	20.1	7.16	2.040	14.8	33	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Jonathan Bowlan	Middle Reliever	22	20.1	4.03	1.194	10.3	23	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

NYM wins 4-2

San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves

SF 32-43 (4.23 RPG / 4.81 RA)

4 - 5

ATL 46-28 (4.97 RPG / 3.69 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 5-4 TARGET: SF 4 - 5 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 52.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	4	9
ATL	0	3	0	0	2	0	0	0	x	5	7

SF Recent Form

Win%0.215

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff-175.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.279

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-114.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

SF Season Quality

Record32-43

Win%0.427

Run Diff-44

RD/Game-0.587

ATL Season Quality

Record46-28

Win%0.622

Run Diff95

RD/Game1.284

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.1629; margin adjustment: 0.9084; applied: True

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drew Gilbert	CF	50	145	32	0.221	3	14	0.280	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.208	0.270	0.346	OK
Willy Adames	SS	72	286	66	0.231	13	31	0.273	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.201	0.237	0.403	OK
Luis Arraez	2B	71	283	95	0.336	3	29	0.369	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.296	0.330	0.465	OK
Rafael Devers	1B	74	285	69	0.242	10	35	0.306	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.244	0.319	0.455	OK
Daniel Susac	C	29	92	26	0.283	0	13	0.337	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.156	0.204	0.253	OK
Matt Chapman	3B	73	267	66	0.247	7	42	0.330	4	3	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.233	0.313	0.408	OK
Jung Hoo Lee	RF	65	248	82	0.331	4	26	0.362	4	4	3	1	0	0	1	0.750	0.268	0.296	0.410	OK
Casey Schmitt	DH	66	262	74	0.282	15	37	0.313	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.270	0.288	0.421	OK
Bryce Eldridge	DH	34	114	37	0.325	6	17	0.414	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.282	0.382	0.506	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	36	9	4	4	2	14	0.250

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Michael Harris II	CF	68	246	76	0.309	14	41	0.340	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.292	0.324	0.478	OK
Ha-Seong Kim	SS	18	59	5	0.085	0	3	0.182	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.169	0.255	0.229	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	74	282	78	0.277	10	37	0.330	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.247	0.293	0.361	OK
Matt Olson	1B	74	287	79	0.275	20	51	0.345	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.270	0.336	0.485	OK
Drake Baldwin	C	51	199	60	0.302	15	40	0.383	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.273	0.352	0.547	OK
Austin Riley	3B	74	266	56	0.211	8	35	0.291	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.230	0.295	0.360	OK
Mike Yastrzemski	LF	65	184	42	0.228	3	17	0.311	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.220	0.297	0.331	OK
Mauricio Dubón	SS	70	256	67	0.262	7	41	0.318	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.250	0.302	0.404	OK
Dominic Smith	DH	55	159	45	0.283	6	29	0.312	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.230	0.268	0.357	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	31	7	5	5	6	4	0.226

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Landen Roupp	Starter	14	72.0	4.38	1.333	10.2	82	5.1	6	5	5	4	2	113	5.1	2	5
Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	31	27.9	3.55	1.290	12.3	38	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Ryan Walker	Middle Reliever	19	16.0	6.19	1.875	9.6	17	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	18	0.2	0	0
Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	23	16.4	4.94	1.890	14.8	27	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Martín Pérez	Starter	14	60.6	2.97	1.073	7.6	51	5.2	6	3	3	0	8	101	5.2	8	3
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	22	22.4	1.21	1.027	10.8	27	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever	30	29.5	0.61	0.814	7.9	26	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	33	28.4	1.27	0.704	12.7	40	1.0	1	0	0	2	3	29	1.0	3	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	20	25.9	2.43	1.120	11.5	33	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	17	0.1	1	1

Game Summary

ATL wins 5-4

St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals

STL 40-32 (4.53 RPG / 4.38 RA)

6 - 1

KC 30-45 (4.01 RPG / 4.69 RA)

WINNER: STL wins 6-1 TARGET: STL 4 - 3 KC (STL) Confidence: 54.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	6	11
KC	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	5

STL Recent Form

Win%0.164

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed2.7

Run Diff-94.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

KC Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-181.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

STL Season Quality

Record40-32

Win%0.556

Run Diff11

RD/Game0.153

KC Season Quality

Record30-45

Win%0.400

Run Diff-51

RD/Game-0.680

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0661; margin adjustment: -0.4478; applied: True

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	66	258	67	0.260	10	30	0.361	5	3	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.274	0.346	0.404	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	71	261	67	0.257	9	30	0.391	5	4	2	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.248	0.347	0.442	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	70	276	80	0.290	17	53	0.343	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.246	0.290	0.448	OK
Nelson Velázquez	LF	11	27	9	0.333	2	6	0.379	5	5	3	1	1	0	0	0.600	0.289	0.318	0.491	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	70	277	78	0.282	13	52	0.343	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.258	0.311	0.479	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	63	235	55	0.234	2	26	0.310	5	4	1	1	3	0	0	0.250	0.248	0.321	0.337	OK
Blaze Jordan	3B	6	21	6	0.286	1	5	0.318	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.247	0.286	0.505	OK
José Fermín	LF	39	98	26	0.265	2	12	0.311	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.183	0.233	0.273	OK
Pedro Pagés	C	38	123	28	0.228	4	10	0.267	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.238	0.268	0.376	OK
TEAM TOTALS									44	38	11	6	6	4	4	0.289

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Lane Thomas	CF	55	146	33	0.226	5	17	0.352	5	3	2	0	0	2	0	0.667	0.235	0.348	0.436	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	74	294	85	0.289	9	29	0.361	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.275	0.345	0.416	OK
Jac Caglianone	1B	68	229	60	0.262	8	20	0.335	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.167	0.236	0.295	OK
Starling Marte	RF	30	78	20	0.256	1	5	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.241	0.286	0.377	OK
Salvador Perez	C	68	266	54	0.203	9	26	0.247	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.194	0.223	0.284	OK
Carter Jensen	DH	66	225	53	0.236	9	37	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.259	0.323	0.452	OK
Nick Loftin	3B	37	105	25	0.238	1	18	0.336	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.242	0.333	0.417	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	63	199	43	0.216	3	20	0.336	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.206	0.306	0.295	OK
Michael Massey	2B	54	161	42	0.261	7	24	0.278	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.155	0.179	0.313	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	32	5	1	1	6	10	0.156

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Matthew Liberatore	Starter	14	68.8	4.84	1.541	8.5	65	4.2	5	1	1	2	6	95	4.2	6	1
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	31	29.7	3.94	1.279	9.7	32	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	31	25.9	3.47	1.313	9.4	27	1.1	0	0	0	2	1	27	1.1	1	0
JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	33	25.0	5.04	1.680	11.5	32	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	1.0	2	0
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	32	24.2	6.32	1.818	13.4	36	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Noah Cameron	Starter	13	68.6	4.20	1.239	8.4	64	5.2	7	5	5	2	3	100	5.2	3	5
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	31	31.1	4.34	1.511	10.1	35	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	4	1.0	1	0
Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	28	25.7	4.90	1.790	8.1	23	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	31	27.5	2.95	1.127	9.8	30	1.0	1	0	0	2	0	6	1.0	0	0
Matt Strahm	Middle Reliever	24	20.6	6.12	1.408	7.9	18	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	14	0.1	0	0
John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	32	25.0	3.24	1.400	7.6	21	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	0.0	0	0
Steven Cruz	Reliever	19	17.3	6.76	1.734	14.0	27	0.0	2	1	1	0	0	18	0.0	0	1

Game Summary

STL wins 6-1

Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox

TOR 37-38 (4.08 RPG / 4.25 RA)

2 - 1

BOS 29-43 (3.92 RPG / 4.1 RA)

WINNER: TOR wins 2-1 TARGET: TOR 2 - 1 BOS (TOR) Confidence: 56.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	6

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.215

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff-140.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.211

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-141.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TOR Season Quality

Record36-38

Win%0.486

Run Diff-14

RD/Game-0.189

BOS Season Quality

Record29-42

Win%0.408

Run Diff-12

RD/Game-0.169

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0969; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
George Springer	DH	52	198	42	0.212	7	19	0.308	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.233	0.325	0.418	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	69	254	71	0.280	3	29	0.362	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.253	0.329	0.345	OK
Jesús Sánchez	RF	67	198	57	0.288	7	29	0.326	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.186	0.229	0.350	OK
Yohendrick Pinango	LF	39	120	35	0.292	4	17	0.331	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.262	0.307	0.408	OK
Ernie Clement	2B	73	285	84	0.295	7	28	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.251	0.273	0.397	OK
Nathan Lukes	CF	39	124	39	0.315	1	13	0.363	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.291	0.326	0.391	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	71	261	60	0.230	15	42	0.312	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.230	0.310	0.446	OK
Brandon Valenzuela	C	44	130	33	0.254	7	18	0.338	3	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.243	0.327	0.438	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	69	233	54	0.232	7	32	0.276	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.252	0.275	0.403	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	31	4	2	2	2	10	0.129

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Mickey Gasper	DH	28	89	23	0.258	0	6	0.316	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.219	0.278	0.327	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	66	248	71	0.286	7	32	0.340	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.259	0.293	0.433	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	70	273	76	0.278	8	34	0.338	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.250	0.310	0.421	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	67	245	73	0.298	16	43	0.390	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.280	0.346	0.555	OK
Jarren Duran	LF	66	268	57	0.213	12	37	0.273	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.211	0.265	0.393	OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	SS	40	116	32	0.276	1	12	0.344	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.248	0.318	0.329	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	62	205	39	0.190	3	26	0.250	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.195	0.242	0.367	OK
Connor Wong	C	26	76	21	0.276	0	10	0.368	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.162	0.245	0.282	OK
Andruw Monasterio	2B	37	108	26	0.241	2	11	0.281	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.132	0.173	0.258	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	1	1	2	8	0.182

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trey Yesavage	Starter	9	46.5	3.87	1.290	9.1	47	5.2	4	0	0	0	6	88	5.2	6	0
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	36	36.5	0.99	1.068	13.6	55	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	36	32.2	1.96	1.118	5.6	20	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	35	29.3	5.84	1.672	16.3	53	1.0	1	1	1	2	0	24	1.0	0	1

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sonny Gray	Starter	12	61.4	3.08	1.221	7.5	51	5.2	1	1	1	2	10	91	5.2	10	1
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	21	20.2	0.45	0.941	12.5	28	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	22	21.2	2.97	1.085	11.5	27	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	15	11.0	8.18	1.909	13.9	17	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1

Game Summary

TOR wins 2-1

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners

BAL Recent Form

SEA Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

SEA Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees

CHW Recent Form

NYY Recent Form

CHW Season Quality

NYY Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ Milwaukee Brewers

CLE Recent Form

MIL Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

MIL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics

LAA Recent Form

OAK Recent Form

LAA Season Quality

OAK Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers

MIN Recent Form

TEX Recent Form

MIN Season Quality

TEX Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

NYM Recent Form

PHI Recent Form

NYM Season Quality

PHI Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves

SF Recent Form

ATL Recent Form

SF Season Quality

ATL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals