MLB Predictions — June 15, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
COL @ CHC	2 - 7	3 - 7	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 7-3	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
DET @ HOU	3 - 1	4 - 2	DET	DET	DET wins 4-2	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
KC @ WAS	2 - 5	3 - 4	WAS	WAS	WAS wins 4-3	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
LAA @ ARI	4 - 2	5 - 2	LAA	LAA	LAA wins 5-2	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIA @ PHI	1 - 3	1 - 4	PHI	PHI	PHI wins 4-1	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIN @ TEX	3 - 2	3 - 2	MIN	MIN	MIN wins 3-2	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
NYM @ CIN	1 - 2	0 - 4	CIN	CIN	CIN wins 4-0	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
PIT @ OAK	3 - 2	4 - 3	PIT	PIT	PIT wins 4-3	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SD @ STL	2 - 1	3 - 2	SD	SD	SD wins 3-2	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TB @ LAD	5 - 4	7 - 4	TB	TB	TB wins 7-4	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs

COL 27-45 (4.57 RPG / 5.82 RA)

3 - 7

CHC 37-35 (4.57 RPG / 4.44 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 7-3 TARGET: COL 2 - 7 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3	5
CHC	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	0	x	7	11

COL Recent Form

Win%0.194

Avg Runs1.6

Avg Allowed5.2

Run Diff-228.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.076

Avg Runs0.7

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff-191.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

COL Season Quality

Record27-45

Win%0.375

Run Diff-90

RD/Game-1.250

CHC Season Quality

Record37-35

Win%0.514

Run Diff9

RD/Game0.125

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.5833; margin adjustment: 0.665; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Willi Castro	2B	59	209	58	0.278	5	29	0.350	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.269	0.334	0.437	OK
Tyler Freeman	RF	43	148	40	0.270	3	20	0.349	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.172	0.221	0.289	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	66	240	68	0.283	9	33	0.362	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.279	0.350	0.512	OK
Hunter Goodman	DH	66	252	63	0.250	20	37	0.321	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.251	0.312	0.517	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	64	234	52	0.222	5	24	0.269	4	2	1	0	0	2	1	0.500	0.237	0.275	0.385	OK
Cole Carrigg	CF	6	24	6	0.250	2	4	0.308	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.236	0.291	0.462	OK
Jake McCarthy	LF	51	174	49	0.282	4	26	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.248	0.290	0.414	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	67	199	50	0.251	3	19	0.349	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.270	0.357	0.402	OK
Braxton Fulford	C	17	30	7	0.233	1	5	0.324	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.129	0.248	0.250	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	5	3	3	5	7	0.156

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	71	266	72	0.271	12	33	0.348	5	4	3	1	3	1	0	0.750	0.297	0.346	0.523	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	70	280	71	0.254	6	22	0.339	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.252	0.328	0.386	OK
Michael Busch	1B	70	253	65	0.257	8	42	0.382	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.274	0.382	0.459	OK
Seiya Suzuki	DH	57	208	53	0.255	10	28	0.339	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.279	0.349	0.478	OK
Ian Happ	LF	67	251	57	0.227	16	37	0.341	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.225	0.324	0.484	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	69	277	67	0.242	4	34	0.316	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.231	0.296	0.329	OK
Moisés Ballesteros	C	56	153	36	0.235	6	22	0.300	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.255	0.314	0.390	OK
Matt Shaw	RF	38	96	24	0.250	3	11	0.291	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.221	0.257	0.356	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	66	220	40	0.182	7	28	0.288	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.193	0.297	0.304	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	35	11	7	7	4	6	0.314

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael Lorenzen	Starter	15	63.1	7.84	1.981	7.8	55	4.0	8	6	6	2	3	87	4.0	3	6
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	20	33.9	2.39	1.150	8.5	32	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.1	0	0
Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	29	27.0	7.00	1.963	12.0	36	0.1	2	1	1	1	1	19	0.1	1	1
Seth Halvorsen	Middle Reliever	17	14.0	3.86	1.929	10.3	16	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Brennan Bernardino	Middle Reliever	33	21.0	5.57	1.714	9.4	22	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	21	1.1	1	0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shota Imanaga	Starter	14	80.3	4.48	1.071	9.1	81	5.2	5	3	3	4	5	106	5.2	5	3
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever	17	14.5	2.48	1.310	9.9	16	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	30	26.4	3.07	1.477	11.9	35	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	19	14.5	3.72	1.310	12.4	20	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Hoby Milner	Middle Reliever	33	25.5	4.59	1.412	5.3	15	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	14	0.1	1	0

Game Summary

CHC wins 7-3

Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros

DET 29-42 (4.06 RPG / 4.23 RA)

4 - 2

HOU 33-40 (4.56 RPG / 5.1 RA)

WINNER: DET wins 4-2 TARGET: DET 3 - 1 HOU (DET) Confidence: 57.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	4	7
HOU	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	4

DET Recent Form

Win%0.306

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff-116.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.365

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff-195.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

DET Season Quality

Record29-42

Win%0.408

Run Diff-12

RD/Game-0.169

HOU Season Quality

Record33-40

Win%0.452

Run Diff-39

RD/Game-0.534

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2998; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kevin McGonigle	SS	67	251	70	0.279	4	24	0.386	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.234	0.336	0.369	OK
Gleyber Torres	2B	42	156	44	0.282	4	18	0.397	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.277	0.377	0.426	OK
Kerry Carpenter	DH	48	135	32	0.237	9	26	0.316	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.257	0.316	0.482	OK
Riley Greene	LF	70	252	76	0.302	8	33	0.392	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.251	0.345	0.461	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	63	232	60	0.259	16	50	0.332	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.279	0.330	0.537	OK
Colt Keith	3B	64	189	48	0.254	1	9	0.299	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.230	0.272	0.372	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	69	233	48	0.206	11	27	0.305	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.216	0.301	0.444	OK
Zach McKinstry	RF	45	132	24	0.182	2	10	0.272	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.223	0.316	0.363	OK
James Outman	CF	1	3	1	0.333	1	1	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.107	0.157	0.247	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	34	7	4	4	5	7	0.206

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	34	133	36	0.271	3	12	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.229	0.299	0.333	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	71	257	85	0.331	24	54	0.439	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.319	0.410	0.590	OK
Christian Walker	1B	71	267	67	0.251	18	52	0.319	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.235	0.287	0.464	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	65	232	51	0.220	9	33	0.325	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.208	0.292	0.368	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	50	189	45	0.238	6	15	0.319	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.221	0.297	0.387	OK
Taylor Trammell	LF	25	73	21	0.288	0	7	0.342	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.159	0.216	0.281	OK
Cam Smith	RF	70	239	52	0.218	7	26	0.303	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.218	0.288	0.370	OK
Brice Matthews	CF	55	160	34	0.212	6	17	0.262	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.249	0.298	0.473	OK
Christian Vázquez	C	47	143	32	0.224	4	19	0.279	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.185	0.242	0.291	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	31	4	2	2	1	7	0.129

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Drew Anderson	Starter	25	39.7	4.31	1.411	12.0	53	5.0	4	2	2	0	4	75	5.0	4	2
Will Vest	Middle Reliever	21	18.1	7.46	1.657	11.4	23	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	19	1.0	1	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	30	28.7	1.57	1.533	6.3	20	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	31	25.5	4.94	1.765	9.5	27	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	21	1.2	2	0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kai-Wei Teng	Starter	20	48.2	3.92	1.349	9.1	49	5.0	4	0	0	0	4	86	5.0	4	0
Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	5	5.0	0.00	0.200	12.6	7	1.0	1	2	2	3	1	28	1.0	1	2
Bryan King	Middle Reliever	28	25.9	2.78	1.506	8.3	24	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	26	21.0	7.29	2.048	13.3	31	1.0	0	1	1	0	1	14	1.0	1	1
Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	29	25.1	5.38	1.394	10.4	29	1.0	1	1	1	2	1	24	1.0	1	1

Game Summary

DET wins 4-2

Kansas City Royals @ Washington Nationals

KC 29-43 (4.0 RPG / 4.68 RA)

3 - 4

WAS 37-35 (5.44 RPG / 5.26 RA)

WINNER: WAS wins 4-3 TARGET: KC 2 - 5 WAS (WAS) Confidence: 56.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	3	7
WAS	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	x	4	7

KC Recent Form

Win%0.177

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-177.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.250

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-142.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

KC Season Quality

Record29-43

Win%0.403

Run Diff-49

RD/Game-0.681

WAS Season Quality

Record37-35

Win%0.514

Run Diff13

RD/Game0.181

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.0278; margin adjustment: 0.4317; applied: True

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Lane Thomas	CF	52	134	30	0.224	3	15	0.348	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.242	0.348	0.377	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	71	283	81	0.286	9	27	0.354	5	3	0	0	0	2	2	0.000	0.278	0.339	0.423	OK
Jac Caglianone	RF	65	216	57	0.264	8	20	0.338	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.197	0.269	0.330	OK
Maikel Garcia	3B	63	250	68	0.272	3	28	0.326	5	3	1	1	1	2	1	0.333	0.257	0.311	0.384	OK
Starling Marte	DH	28	71	18	0.254	1	5	0.316	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.244	0.294	0.383	OK
Salvador Perez	1B	65	253	52	0.206	9	26	0.252	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.207	0.239	0.304	OK
Nick Loftin	2B	34	95	21	0.221	1	18	0.319	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.232	0.326	0.406	OK
Carter Jensen	C	64	217	48	0.221	8	35	0.290	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.222	0.285	0.381	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	60	189	41	0.217	3	17	0.342	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.222	0.333	0.314	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	34	7	3	3	7	9	0.206

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	DH	72	274	77	0.281	20	46	0.414	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.302	0.413	0.596	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	66	220	57	0.259	9	43	0.284	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.173	0.201	0.381	OK
Curtis Mead	3B	56	171	40	0.234	10	29	0.342	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.150	0.250	0.316	OK
CJ Abrams	SS	70	259	75	0.290	14	53	0.377	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.279	0.342	0.455	OK
Dylan Crews	RF	21	83	16	0.193	3	10	0.239	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.223	0.247	0.373	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	71	282	74	0.262	8	37	0.318	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.280	0.335	0.455	OK
Jacob Young	CF	62	219	52	0.237	8	28	0.283	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.241	0.273	0.405	OK
Keibert Ruiz	C	44	142	40	0.282	6	29	0.302	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.272	0.295	0.477	OK
Nasim Nuñez	2B	61	199	40	0.201	0	22	0.286	3	2	1	1	0	1	0	0.500	0.218	0.292	0.275	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	7	4	4	3	4	0.226

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Mitch Spence	Starter	1	4.0	13.50	2.250	6.8	3	3.2	7	4	4	2	1	84	3.2	1	4
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	30	30.1	4.49	1.561	10.5	35	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	5	1.1	0	0
Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	27	24.7	5.10	1.862	8.0	22	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	30	26.5	2.04	1.019	9.8	29	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Matt Strahm	Middle Reliever	23	20.5	5.71	1.317	7.9	18	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	14	0.2	2	0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andrew Alvarez	Starter	7	23.4	3.85	1.496	10.0	26	4.1	5	2	2	4	4	96	4.1	4	2
Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	19	18.7	3.85	1.337	10.1	21	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	27	21.0	5.14	1.905	10.3	24	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	20	1.0	1	1
Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	20	18.6	1.94	1.022	6.8	14	1.2	1	0	0	1	2	28	1.2	2	0
Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	21	41.5	2.39	1.108	8.0	37	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	35	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

WAS wins 4-3

Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks

LAA 29-43 (4.49 RPG / 5.01 RA)

5 - 2

ARI 36-35 (4.23 RPG / 4.51 RA)

WINNER: LAA wins 5-2 TARGET: LAA 4 - 2 ARI (LAA) Confidence: 57.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAA	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	5	10
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	8

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.286

Avg Runs1.5

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff-158.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.286

Avg Runs0.8

Avg Allowed2.7

Run Diff-121.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

LAA Season Quality

Record29-43

Win%0.403

Run Diff-38

RD/Game-0.528

ARI Season Quality

Record36-35

Win%0.507

Run Diff-20

RD/Game-0.282

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4025; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	69	273	61	0.223	13	32	0.328	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.208	0.285	0.372	OK
Mike Trout	CF	71	254	57	0.224	15	32	0.388	5	3	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.224	0.366	0.414	OK
Wade Meckler	LF	19	61	18	0.295	2	12	0.368	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.259	0.336	0.423	OK
Jo Adell	RF	72	280	71	0.254	10	40	0.299	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.283	0.310	0.409	OK
Nolan Schanuel	1B	55	205	53	0.259	4	25	0.325	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.256	0.320	0.377	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	5	22	5	0.227	0	5	0.227	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.234	0.243	0.346	OK
Logan O'Hoppe	C	45	145	32	0.221	3	17	0.296	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.262	0.314	0.426	OK
Donovan Walton	DH	16	54	16	0.296	1	4	0.333	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.252	0.295	0.417	OK
Oswald Peraza	2B	62	204	53	0.260	7	21	0.307	4	3	1	1	3	0	0	0.333	0.216	0.243	0.353	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	10	5	5	3	6	0.278

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ketel Marte	2B	66	271	69	0.255	11	41	0.305	5	5	2	0	0	0	1	0.400	0.245	0.295	0.403	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	68	234	57	0.244	4	24	0.350	5	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.255	0.355	0.392	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	68	252	70	0.278	12	34	0.370	5	4	2	1	1	1	2	0.500	0.251	0.332	0.511	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	47	159	42	0.264	6	23	0.348	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0.400	0.264	0.342	0.473	OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	DH	24	91	20	0.220	1	9	0.280	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.235	0.290	0.354	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	66	222	54	0.243	8	31	0.324	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.219	0.288	0.340	OK
Jordan Lawlar	CF	7	22	8	0.364	1	4	0.440	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.302	0.338	0.475	OK
Pavin Smith	1B	12	29	3	0.103	0	3	0.250	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.198	0.322	0.270	OK
Tommy Troy	LF	18	57	13	0.228	2	2	0.323	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.208	0.301	0.344	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	35	8	2	2	4	7	0.229

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Walbert Urena	Starter	12	54.4	2.48	1.379	9.1	55	6.0	6	1	1	2	6	102	6.0	6	1
Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	13	11.4	3.95	1.140	12.6	16	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	17	1.0	0	1
Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	26	28.7	3.76	1.394	11.0	35	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever	31	20.2	2.23	1.733	12.0	27	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryne Nelson	Starter	14	73.3	5.40	1.282	7.0	57	5.1	6	2	2	3	3	97	5.1	3	2
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1	1.0	9.00	2.000	0.0	0	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	7	1.0	0	1
Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	2	1.2	15.00	3.333	7.5	1	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	20	0.2	1	1
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	2	2.1	0.00	0.476	8.6	2	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1

Game Summary

LAA wins 5-2

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies

MIA 36-36 (4.31 RPG / 4.31 RA)

1 - 4

PHI 38-33 (4.01 RPG / 4.34 RA)

WINNER: PHI wins 4-1 TARGET: MIA 1 - 3 PHI (PHI) Confidence: 57.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIA	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	x	4	8

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.306

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed3.0

Run Diff-118.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.270

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff-135.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIA Season Quality

Record36-36

Win%0.500

Run Diff0

RD/Game0.000

PHI Season Quality

Record38-33

Win%0.535

Run Diff-23

RD/Game-0.324

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2711; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Liam Hicks	DH	69	231	64	0.277	13	51	0.361	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.286	0.360	0.464	OK
Otto Lopez	SS	71	283	97	0.343	5	31	0.371	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.303	0.328	0.433	OK
Kyle Stowers	1B	49	181	39	0.215	5	22	0.302	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.225	0.297	0.386	OK
Xavier Edwards	2B	72	264	79	0.299	6	25	0.382	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.255	0.341	0.374	OK
Heriberto Hernández	LF	43	131	31	0.237	6	26	0.294	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.272	0.322	0.457	OK
Owen Caissie	RF	60	170	36	0.212	6	35	0.268	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.209	0.265	0.391	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	69	240	48	0.200	3	17	0.330	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.219	0.335	0.329	OK
Joe Mack	C	31	96	23	0.240	2	14	0.291	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.252	0.306	0.394	OK
Javier Sanoja	3B	49	154	39	0.253	2	24	0.294	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.214	0.258	0.337	OK
TEAM TOTALS									31	30	3	1	1	0	6	0.100

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kyle Schwarber	DH	67	257	63	0.245	23	41	0.358	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.252	0.344	0.463	OK
Trea Turner	SS	68	284	63	0.222	7	21	0.270	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.202	0.246	0.298	OK
Bryce Harper	1B	69	242	62	0.256	15	39	0.366	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.236	0.351	0.438	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	65	232	75	0.323	8	32	0.357	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.261	0.296	0.423	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	64	220	51	0.232	6	32	0.286	4	4	1	1	3	0	0	0.250	0.258	0.308	0.399	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	46	157	33	0.210	4	15	0.290	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.213	0.277	0.341	OK
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	RF	1	3	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.233	0.245	0.340
Justin Crawford	CF	63	191	42	0.220	2	12	0.280	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.213	0.261	0.314	OK
Edmundo Sosa	3B	38	104	23	0.221	4	18	0.252	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.147	0.165	0.285	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	8	4	4	4	6	0.250

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Gusto	Starter	4	9.0	6.00	1.444	9.0	9	3.0	3	2	2	2	4	67	3.0	4	2
Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	22	18.6	7.26	1.559	14.0	29	1.1	2	0	0	0	0	23	1.1	0	0
Anthony Bender	Middle Reliever	30	24.2	3.72	1.157	13.4	36	2.0	3	2	2	2	0	46	2.0	0	2
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	27	26.3	3.42	1.179	11.6	34	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	21	1.2	2	0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zack Wheeler	Starter	9	56.2	2.24	0.854	8.5	53	6.1	3	1	1	0	6	94	6.1	6	1
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	24	23.2	1.16	0.862	13.6	35	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	31	28.7	4.39	1.429	9.7	31	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9	1.0	0	0
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	29	24.1	2.24	1.245	10.8	29	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

PHI wins 4-1

Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers

MIN 33-40 (4.63 RPG / 5.21 RA)

3 - 2

TEX 35-36 (4.01 RPG / 3.93 RA)

WINNER: MIN wins 3-2 TARGET: MIN 3 - 2 TEX (MIN) Confidence: 54.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	3	5
TEX	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	6

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff-191.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.262

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff-128.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIN Season Quality

Record33-40

Win%0.452

Run Diff-42

RD/Game-0.575

TEX Season Quality

Record35-36

Win%0.493

Run Diff6

RD/Game0.085

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7212; margin adjustment: 0.3029; applied: True

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Austin Martin	RF	58	197	47	0.239	2	17	0.338	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.208	0.298	0.295	OK
Byron Buxton	CF	61	250	69	0.276	22	35	0.336	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.289	0.340	0.608	OK
Kody Clemens	1B	59	207	52	0.251	10	25	0.317	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.176	0.229	0.372	OK
Royce Lewis	3B	39	133	28	0.211	6	18	0.296	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.260	0.330	0.481	OK
Josh Bell	DH	70	254	59	0.232	7	40	0.286	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.242	0.284	0.383	OK
Luke Keaschall	2B	66	237	58	0.245	2	23	0.321	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.245	0.318	0.372	OK
Ryan Kreidler	SS	26	65	16	0.246	3	12	0.319	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.250	0.322	0.425	OK
Alex Jackson	C	10	30	8	0.267	0	1	0.290	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.227	0.236	0.317	OK
Tristan Gray	3B	44	122	31	0.254	4	27	0.299	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.232	0.280	0.337	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	5	3	3	3	7	0.156

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Joc Pederson	DH	65	176	42	0.239	8	23	0.341	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.170	0.269	0.319	OK
Josh Jung	3B	66	254	78	0.307	8	30	0.367	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.267	0.324	0.394	OK
Wyatt Langford	LF	29	116	28	0.241	3	8	0.285	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.245	0.288	0.415	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	69	265	68	0.257	7	25	0.330	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.259	0.312	0.412	OK
Jake Burger	1B	69	255	63	0.247	12	42	0.305	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.268	0.330	0.484	OK
Alejandro Osuna	CF	37	95	24	0.253	0	9	0.366	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	0.333	0.255	0.326	0.319	OK
Cody Freeman	2B	3	10	4	0.400	0	0	0.455	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.154	0.228	0.211	OK
Nicky Lopez	SS	14	43	13	0.302	1	5	0.348	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.165	0.203	0.237	OK
Elias Díaz	C	5	13	5	0.385	0	2	0.385	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.240	0.265	0.429	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	2	2	4	7	0.182

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Mike Paredes	Starter	3	9.4	4.79	1.170	7.7	8	3.1	5	2	2	2	4	65	3.1	4	2
Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	19	13.3	2.03	1.353	13.5	20	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	21	1.1	0	0
Anthony Banda	Middle Reliever	34	22.3	6.05	1.749	10.9	27	1.2	1	0	0	1	2	19	1.2	2	0
Travis Adams	Middle Reliever	11	14.5	7.45	1.655	10.6	17	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	23	1.2	1	0
Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	28	27.1	5.98	1.771	9.6	29	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
MacKenzie Gore	Starter	14	68.9	4.31	1.393	9.9	76	4.2	4	2	2	3	3	97	4.2	3	2
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	25	31.7	0.85	0.505	9.9	35	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	20	1.1	2	0
Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	25	27.7	1.95	0.866	6.8	21	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	18	1.0	2	1
Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	25	18.4	6.85	1.739	12.2	25	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	29	23.8	3.78	1.639	8.3	22	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

MIN wins 3-2

New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds

NYM 32-39 (4.06 RPG / 4.21 RA)

0 - 4

CIN 33-37 (4.19 RPG / 5.01 RA)

WINNER: CIN wins 4-0 TARGET: NYM 1 - 2 CIN (CIN) Confidence: 55.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
CIN	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	x	4	8

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.371

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff-123.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.194

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-188.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

NYM Season Quality

Record32-39

Win%0.451

Run Diff-11

RD/Game-0.155

CIN Season Quality

Record33-37

Win%0.471

Run Diff-58

RD/Game-0.829

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6426; margin adjustment: -0.2699; applied: True

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carson Benge	RF	66	244	63	0.258	7	26	0.322	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.244	0.296	0.365	OK
Bo Bichette	SS	70	282	67	0.238	8	40	0.282	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.270	0.306	0.466	OK
Juan Soto	LF	53	195	58	0.297	15	34	0.389	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.295	0.387	0.540	OK
Jared Young	1B	25	76	20	0.263	4	9	0.325	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.163	0.219	0.311	OK
A.J. Ewing	CF	31	105	28	0.267	2	9	0.339	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.268	0.337	0.423	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	70	253	56	0.221	9	26	0.275	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.223	0.278	0.380	OK
Brett Baty	3B	62	208	49	0.236	3	26	0.297	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.230	0.293	0.329	OK
MJ Melendez	DH	44	102	21	0.206	4	11	0.317	3	1	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.222	0.308	0.387	OK
Francisco Alvarez	C	39	125	29	0.232	5	12	0.302	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.233	0.290	0.395	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	29	2	0	0	3	5	0.069

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Blake Dunn	CF	25	105	28	0.267	2	5	0.319	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.144	0.198	0.240	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	41	155	42	0.271	12	30	0.363	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.231	0.318	0.481	OK
Sal Stewart	DH	69	259	65	0.251	13	42	0.349	4	2	1	0	0	2	1	0.500	0.218	0.317	0.392	OK
Spencer Steer	1B	66	233	59	0.253	10	26	0.333	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.205	0.285	0.392	OK
Eugenio Suárez	3B	43	156	34	0.218	5	19	0.281	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.223	0.278	0.368	OK
Noelvi Marte	RF	18	55	12	0.218	3	3	0.259	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.233	0.272	0.425	OK
Matt McLain	SS	63	230	48	0.209	8	25	0.305	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.210	0.302	0.370	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	54	171	35	0.205	5	19	0.299	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.220	0.310	0.364	OK
Edwin Arroyo	2B	9	28	6	0.214	0	2	0.281	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.193	0.242	0.256	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	8	4	4	4	4	0.250

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tobias Myers	Starter	20	30.3	4.46	1.188	7.7	26	5.0	6	3	3	2	2	92	5.0	2	3
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	25	21.7	4.56	1.429	15.3	37	0.1	1	1	1	1	1	18	0.1	1	1
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	28	27.9	2.58	1.004	8.7	27	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	21	1.1	1	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	29	21.1	2.56	1.564	13.2	31	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	23	1.1	0	0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Chase Burns	Starter	13	74.5	2.17	1.007	10.6	88	6.0	1	0	0	3	5	94	6.0	5	0
Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	30	24.9	4.70	1.486	9.0	25	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	34	27.4	3.61	1.715	9.9	30	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Sam Moll	Middle Reliever	31	23.4	3.46	1.282	11.9	31	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

CIN wins 4-0

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Oakland Athletics

PIT 36-36 (4.99 RPG / 4.79 RA)

4 - 3

OAK 35-36 (4.51 RPG / 5.23 RA)

WINNER: PIT wins 4-3 TARGET: PIT 3 - 2 OAK (PIT) Confidence: 56.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	4	8
OAK	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	3	8

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff-143.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.302

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff-165.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

PIT Season Quality

Record36-36

Win%0.500

Run Diff14

RD/Game0.194

OAK Season Quality

Record35-36

Win%0.493

Run Diff-51

RD/Game-0.718

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9233; margin adjustment: -0.3878; applied: True

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Spencer Horwitz	1B	66	217	61	0.281	9	31	0.382	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.261	0.346	0.425	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	66	254	61	0.240	17	46	0.325	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.220	0.300	0.464	OK
Bryan Reynolds	DH	72	256	69	0.270	8	42	0.392	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.263	0.366	0.455	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	RF	56	207	57	0.275	10	35	0.339	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.247	0.302	0.387	OK
Nick Gonzales	SS	65	246	74	0.301	2	31	0.350	4	2	1	0	0	2	0	0.500	0.268	0.308	0.345	OK
Endy Rodríguez	C	20	53	12	0.226	2	6	0.349	4	3	1	1	1	1	2	0.333	0.237	0.348	0.433	OK
Tyler Callihan	3B	9	23	8	0.348	2	6	0.500	4	3	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.188	0.338	0.480	OK
Jake Mangum	CF	45	139	42	0.302	1	11	0.347	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.285	0.327	0.372	OK
Esmerlyn Valdez	LF	7	19	2	0.105	2	5	0.190	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.215	0.285	0.423	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	34	8	4	4	4	8	0.235

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Nick Kurtz	1B	70	252	72	0.286	16	52	0.438	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.271	0.412	0.543	OK
Shea Langeliers	C	64	267	75	0.281	18	36	0.344	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.260	0.308	0.500	OK
Tyler Soderstrom	LF	68	249	60	0.241	12	39	0.336	4	3	2	1	0	1	1	0.667	0.256	0.346	0.542	OK
Jacob Wilson	SS	41	168	48	0.286	3	21	0.309	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.258	0.290	0.361	OK
Carlos Cortes	DH	57	165	50	0.303	6	21	0.389	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.169	0.252	0.317	OK
Zack Gelof	3B	51	185	51	0.276	9	25	0.323	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.184	0.227	0.360	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	59	172	32	0.186	4	17	0.271	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.253	0.324	0.388	OK
Henry Bolte	CF	26	88	28	0.318	1	7	0.384	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.277	0.319	0.405	OK
Jeff McNeil	2B	63	206	47	0.228	2	15	0.300	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.186	0.264	0.262	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	8	3	3	2	9	0.229

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jared Jones	Starter	3	13.1	4.81	1.450	9.6	14	4.0	5	1	1	0	4	75	4.0	4	1
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	30	28.7	2.51	0.836	11.0	35	1.0	1	2	2	1	1	20	1.0	1	2
Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	29	25.9	4.52	1.506	7.6	22	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Evan Sisk	Middle Reliever	26	24.4	2.21	1.393	13.3	36	1.2	2	0	0	0	2	27	1.2	2	0
Carmen Mlodzinski	Middle Reliever	13	60.1	4.19	1.464	7.8	52	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	25	1.1	2	0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
J.T. Ginn	Starter	15	69.0	3.26	1.188	8.5	65	5.2	5	2	2	1	6	102	5.2	6	2
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	36	26.2	3.44	1.908	13.4	39	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	23	1.1	1	0
Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	31	25.4	5.67	1.575	11.0	31	1.0	2	2	2	3	1	31	1.0	1	2
Scott Barlow	Middle Reliever	32	26.2	4.81	1.374	8.9	26	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

PIT wins 4-3

San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals

SD 37-33 (3.89 RPG / 4.03 RA)

3 - 2

STL 38-31 (4.62 RPG / 4.45 RA)

WINNER: SD wins 3-2 TARGET: SD 2 - 1 STL (SD) Confidence: 55.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	9
STL	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	5

SD Recent Form

Win%0.226

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff-140.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

STL Recent Form

Win%0.167

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-86.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

SD Season Quality

Record37-33

Win%0.529

Run Diff-10

RD/Game-0.143

STL Season Quality

Record38-31

Win%0.551

Run Diff12

RD/Game0.174

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.35; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	68	266	75	0.282	2	23	0.348	5	2	1	0	0	1	0	0.500	0.271	0.329	0.388	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	66	256	53	0.207	7	27	0.275	5	5	3	1	1	0	1	0.600	0.221	0.278	0.380	OK
Manny Machado	DH	68	251	44	0.175	12	35	0.254	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.207	0.274	0.383	OK
Gavin Sheets	LF	63	203	47	0.232	11	30	0.322	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.227	0.307	0.420	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	66	232	53	0.228	8	27	0.309	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.221	0.302	0.317	OK
Will Wagner	3B	5	9	4	0.444	0	0	0.643	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.256	0.488	0.433	OK
Ty France	1B	43	132	34	0.258	6	18	0.310	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.207	0.258	0.352	OK
Sung-Mun Song	2B	17	42	8	0.190	0	4	0.292	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.128	0.226	0.184	OK
Rodolfo Durán	C	14	34	6	0.176	3	6	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.206	0.334	0.442	OK
TEAM TOTALS									43	36	9	3	3	5	5	0.250

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	63	246	63	0.256	10	30	0.360	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.268	0.340	0.399	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	68	252	66	0.262	9	30	0.392	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.264	0.366	0.452	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	67	264	75	0.284	13	50	0.348	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.261	0.320	0.539	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	67	264	78	0.295	17	53	0.351	4	3	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.270	0.314	0.506	OK
Lars Nootbaar	LF	9	32	7	0.219	2	5	0.324	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.239	0.331	0.432	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	60	225	51	0.227	2	26	0.301	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.224	0.294	0.318	OK
Jimmy Crooks	C	8	25	5	0.200	1	4	0.286	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.223	0.306	0.389	OK
Blaze Jordan	3B	3	12	5	0.417	1	4	0.417	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.257	0.267	0.531	OK
Nathan Church	CF	47	167	43	0.257	5	17	0.290	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.233	0.266	0.350	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	5	2	2	3	6	0.161

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Wandy Peralta	Starter	28	28.1	2.56	1.673	7.4	23	4.2	3	1	1	3	4	80	4.2	4	1
Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	29	27.9	0.97	0.860	19.0	59	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	29	23.0	1.96	1.391	6.7	17	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	33	29.7	4.85	1.279	12.4	41	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	30	28.9	2.49	1.384	9.7	31	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Dustin May	Starter	13	71.5	4.28	1.273	8.3	66	5.2	7	2	2	3	4	104	5.2	4	2
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	30	28.7	4.08	1.289	10.0	32	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	20	1.0	1	0
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	31	25.9	3.47	1.313	9.4	27	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	5	1.0	0	1
JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	33	25.0	5.04	1.680	11.5	32	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	13	1.0	0	0
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	31	23.2	6.59	1.897	13.2	34	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	14	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

SD wins 3-2

Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Dodgers

TB 41-27 (4.53 RPG / 4.41 RA)

7 - 4

LAD 45-27 (5.36 RPG / 3.4 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 7-4 TARGET: TB 5 - 4 LAD (TB) Confidence: 56.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	0	3	7	7
LAD	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	4	6

TB Recent Form

Win%0.217

Avg Runs0.8

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff-139.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.339

Avg Runs1.6

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-76.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

TB Season Quality

Record41-27

Win%0.603

Run Diff8

RD/Game0.118

LAD Season Quality

Record45-27

Win%0.625

Run Diff141

RD/Game1.958

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.8738; margin adjustment: 0.787; applied: True

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	65	250	80	0.320	12	46	0.399	5	5	2	1	3	0	0	0.400	0.267	0.337	0.407	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	67	243	66	0.272	11	48	0.375	5	4	1	1	1	1	2	0.250	0.242	0.337	0.367	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	68	258	70	0.271	15	32	0.370	4	3	0	1	0	1	2	0.000	0.233	0.328	0.407	OK
Ryan Vilade	LF	38	103	30	0.291	3	22	0.353	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.269	0.337	0.421	OK
Ben Williamson	2B	48	149	38	0.255	1	18	0.327	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.235	0.297	0.362	OK
Austin Slater	RF	4	15	4	0.267	0	1	0.312	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.239	0.290	0.351	OK
Cedric Mullins	CF	60	204	41	0.201	6	21	0.290	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.239	0.308	0.387	OK
Nick Fortes	C	52	160	43	0.269	1	14	0.310	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.266	0.284	0.378	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	48	151	33	0.219	0	15	0.324	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.216	0.316	0.300	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	7	7	7	4	7	0.206

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	65	248	75	0.302	14	41	0.427	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.293	0.423	0.602	OK
Andy Pages	CF	71	275	75	0.273	15	56	0.319	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.240	0.288	0.410	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	69	262	72	0.275	11	38	0.363	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.252	0.337	0.450	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	36	147	30	0.204	7	18	0.262	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.235	0.287	0.383	OK
Max Muncy	3B	65	216	58	0.269	16	28	0.371	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.281	0.382	0.544	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	68	251	59	0.235	5	36	0.334	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.248	0.341	0.387	OK
Ryan Ward	LF	13	38	9	0.237	3	11	0.293	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.248	0.307	0.493	OK
Dalton Rushing	C	38	119	32	0.269	8	21	0.356	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.247	0.322	0.432	OK
Alex Freeland	2B	48	137	32	0.234	3	16	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.218	0.305	0.332	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	6	4	4	2	4	0.182

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nick Martinez	Starter	13	76.5	2.47	1.176	5.2	44	6.0	3	2	2	0	4	93	6.0	4	2
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	30	27.4	1.97	0.985	10.5	32	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	21	1.1	0	0
Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	30	27.0	2.67	0.963	8.3	25	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	20	1.0	0	0
Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	19	14.7	6.12	1.633	14.7	24	0.2	2	2	2	0	0	16	0.2	0	2

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eric Lauer	Starter	3	15.4	2.92	0.909	5.8	10	5.0	5	4	4	2	3	93	5.0	3	4
Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	31	26.9	2.68	0.818	11.7	35	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Will Klein	Middle Reliever	23	25.2	2.50	1.429	11.4	32	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	31	17.4	3.62	1.322	16.0	31	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	13	0.2	2	0
Blake Treinen	Middle Reliever	27	18.5	2.92	1.459	11.2	23	0.2	2	3	3	2	1	22	0.2	1	3

Game Summary

TB wins 7-4

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs

COL Recent Form

CHC Recent Form

COL Season Quality

CHC Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros

DET Recent Form

HOU Recent Form

DET Season Quality

HOU Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Kansas City Royals @ Washington Nationals

KC Recent Form

WAS Recent Form

KC Season Quality

WAS Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks

LAA Recent Form

ARI Recent Form

LAA Season Quality

ARI Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies

MIA Recent Form

PHI Recent Form

MIA Season Quality

PHI Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers

MIN Recent Form

TEX Recent Form

MIN Season Quality

TEX Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds

NYM Recent Form

CIN Recent Form

NYM Season Quality

CIN Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Oakland Athletics