MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

June 12, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
ARI @ CIN3 - 23 - 2ARIARIARI wins 3-258%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
ATL @ NYM3 - 15 - 0ATLATLATL wins 5-057%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CHC @ SF3 - 43 - 4SFSFSF wins 4-356%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
COL @ OAK2 - 51 - 5OAKOAKOAK wins 5-157%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
DET @ CLE3 - 42 - 3CLECLECLE wins 3-257%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
HOU @ KC3 - 23 - 2HOUHOUHOU wins 3-257%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
LAD @ CHW5 - 26 - 1LADLADLAD wins 6-157%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIA @ PIT2 - 32 - 5PITPITPIT wins 5-256%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
NYY @ TOR2 - 14 - 1NYYNYYNYY wins 4-157%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
PHI @ MIL1 - 52 - 5MILMILMIL wins 5-266%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SD @ BAL3 - 44 - 5BALBALBAL wins 5-456%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SEA @ WAS4 - 24 - 2SEASEASEA wins 4-258%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
STL @ MIN2 - 31 - 5MINMINMIN wins 5-155%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TB @ LAA2 - 12 - 1TBTBTB wins 2-158%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TEX @ BOS2 - 32 - 3BOSBOSBOS wins 3-255%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds

ARI 34-34 (4.25 RPG / 4.6 RA)
3 - 2
CIN 32-35 (4.27 RPG / 5.07 RA)
WINNER: ARI wins 3-2 TARGET: ARI 3 - 2 CIN (ARI) Confidence: 57.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
ARI01100001038
CIN00000020026

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.290
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff-111.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.226
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-185.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

ARI Season Quality

Record34-34
Win%0.500
Run Diff-24
RD/Game-0.353

CIN Season Quality

Record32-35
Win%0.478
Run Diff-54
RD/Game-0.806

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4866; margin adjustment: -0.2044; applied: True

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte2B 6325864 0.248 11400.296 54111 10 0.250 0.226 0.272 0.395 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 6523967 0.280 11330.372 55210 02 0.400 0.248 0.332 0.539 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 4414638 0.260 5220.343 43000 11 0.000 0.263 0.349 0.468 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 6321053 0.252 8300.335 44000 00 0.000 0.233 0.300 0.375 OK
Ildemaro Vargas1B 5821860 0.275 7370.303 44312 00 0.750 0.214 0.241 0.333 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 6522454 0.241 3220.345 44100 00 0.250 0.267 0.370 0.366 OK
Jordan LawlarCF 6186 0.333 120.400 44000 01 0.000 0.276 0.318 0.462 OK
LuJames GrooverDH 4153 0.200 010.200 43100 01 0.333 0.224 0.234 0.306 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtLF 3010528 0.267 080.319 44000 00 0.000 0.145 0.195 0.256 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38358 33 25 0.229

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Dane MyersCF 429526 0.274 3120.352 55000 03 0.000 0.184 0.254 0.287 OK
JJ BledayDH 3814540 0.276 11290.365 54111 11 0.250 0.237 0.322 0.462 OK
Sal Stewart1B 6624864 0.258 13420.356 43000 11 0.000 0.229 0.328 0.408 OK
Spencer Steer2B 6422859 0.259 10260.335 44000 01 0.000 0.221 0.295 0.416 OK
Eugenio Suárez3B 4014531 0.214 5180.281 44000 01 0.000 0.215 0.275 0.364 OK
Blake DunnLF 239728 0.289 250.337 43100 12 0.333 0.164 0.212 0.264 OK
Noelvi MarteRF 15449 0.205 000.255 44200 01 0.500 0.228 0.276 0.310 OK
Tyler StephensonC 5216535 0.212 5190.309 43000 10 0.000 0.243 0.337 0.393 OK
Matt McLainSS 6022046 0.209 8250.307 42211 00 1.000 0.222 0.318 0.443 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38326 22 410 0.188

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Eduardo RodriguezStarter 1377.52.55 1.2006.657 6.21003799 6.2 7 0
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever 11.09.00 2.0000.00 0.13111112 0.1 1 1
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.3337.51 0.00110020 0.0 0 1
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 22.10.00 0.4768.62 1.02000219 1.0 2 0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nick LodoloStarter 631.55.71 1.5567.125 4.26331392 4.2 3 3
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 2923.94.90 1.5489.425 1.11001020 1.1 0 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 3326.43.75 1.66710.230 1.2100016 1.2 1 0
Sam MollMiddle Reliever 3022.43.62 1.33912.531 1.10000117 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

ARI wins 3-2


Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets

ATL 45-23 (5.15 RPG / 3.47 RA)
5 - 0
NYM 30-38 (4.0 RPG / 4.26 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 5-0 TARGET: ATL 3 - 1 NYM (ATL) Confidence: 57.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
ATL11000003058
NYM00000000002

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.293
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff-83.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.356
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-126.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

ATL Season Quality

Record45-23
Win%0.662
Run Diff114
RD/Game1.676

NYM Season Quality

Record30-38
Win%0.441
Run Diff-18
RD/Game-0.265

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.2721; margin adjustment: -0.9543; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Mauricio DubónLF 6423461 0.261 6370.319 44000 03 0.000 0.268 0.323 0.453 OK
Michael Harris IICF 6323271 0.306 13400.336 44110 01 0.250 0.294 0.327 0.451 OK
Matt Olson1B 6826572 0.272 19500.344 44111 01 0.250 0.268 0.338 0.536 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 6826173 0.280 10360.334 44211 00 0.500 0.271 0.327 0.417 OK
Dominic SmithDH 5114843 0.291 6270.318 44112 00 0.250 0.258 0.294 0.413 OK
Austin Riley3B 6824751 0.206 8340.285 44100 01 0.250 0.223 0.289 0.355 OK
Mike YastrzemskiRF 6017140 0.234 3160.314 44100 03 0.250 0.230 0.303 0.342 OK
Ha-Seong KimSS 15525 0.096 030.175 44000 02 0.000 0.169 0.239 0.224 OK
Austin WynnsC 3101 0.100 000.100 43111 11 0.333 0.153 0.204 0.210 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36358 55 112 0.229

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carson BengeRF 6323461 0.261 7260.319 43100 11 0.333 0.251 0.294 0.418 OK
Bo BichetteSS 6727061 0.226 6340.274 43000 10 0.000 0.213 0.254 0.334 OK
Juan SotoLF 5018552 0.281 14310.371 44000 00 0.000 0.226 0.318 0.425 OK
Jared Young1B 226619 0.288 480.356 44000 00 0.000 0.153 0.219 0.307 OK
A.J. EwingCF 289525 0.263 170.343 42000 11 0.000 0.246 0.327 0.352 OK
Marcus Semien2B 6724254 0.223 8250.274 44000 00 0.000 0.222 0.272 0.396 OK
Brett Baty3B 6020247 0.233 3250.290 44100 00 0.250 0.208 0.261 0.308 OK
MJ MelendezDH 419419 0.202 4110.303 42000 10 0.000 0.197 0.261 0.382 OK
Luis TorrensC 4011224 0.214 1150.273 43000 11 0.000 0.139 0.173 0.270 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36292 00 53 0.069

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Spencer StriderStarter 735.34.08 1.30311.043 5.220051103 5.2 1 0
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 2121.41.26 0.98110.926 1.00000117 1.0 1 0
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 2928.50.63 0.8427.925 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 3228.21.28 0.67412.439 1.00000116 1.0 1 0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nolan McLeanStarter 1370.74.07 1.13210.482 5.15220694 5.1 6 2
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 2420.64.81 1.40815.335 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 2827.92.58 1.0048.727 1.03331226 1.0 2 3
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 2820.91.72 1.43512.930 1.20000321 1.2 3 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 5-0


Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants

CHC 35-34 (4.59 RPG / 4.54 RA)
3 - 4
SF 28-41 (4.19 RPG / 4.93 RA)
WINNER: SF wins 4-3 TARGET: CHC 3 - 4 SF (SF) Confidence: 55.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
CHC02000001034
SF01000003x48

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.094
Avg Runs0.7
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-190.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

SF Recent Form

Win%0.210
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-161.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

CHC Season Quality

Record35-34
Win%0.507
Run Diff4
RD/Game0.058

SF Season Quality

Record28-41
Win%0.406
Run Diff-51
RD/Game-0.739

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9493; margin adjustment: -0.3987; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 6825366 0.261 11320.343 44110 01 0.250 0.271 0.325 0.496 OK
Alex Bregman3B 6726867 0.250 6220.337 44111 01 0.250 0.223 0.307 0.359 OK
Michael Busch1B 6724362 0.255 7380.378 43000 11 0.000 0.266 0.366 0.429 OK
Ian HappLF 6423856 0.235 15360.353 44000 01 0.000 0.228 0.337 0.472 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 5520250 0.248 10260.332 44100 01 0.250 0.245 0.313 0.415 OK
Nico Hoerner2B 6726967 0.249 4330.326 43000 10 0.000 0.238 0.308 0.332 OK
Moisés BallesterosDH 5414635 0.240 6220.307 44112 00 0.250 0.254 0.320 0.378 OK
Carson KellyC 4916346 0.282 3180.354 33000 03 0.000 0.239 0.299 0.366 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 6321038 0.181 7280.289 32000 01 0.000 0.183 0.288 0.300 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34314 33 29 0.129

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Luis Arraez2B 6525986 0.332 2240.366 44200 00 0.500 0.291 0.323 0.416 OK
Bryce EldridgeDH 289428 0.298 4120.385 44111 02 0.250 0.282 0.369 0.512 OK
Casey SchmittLF 6024266 0.273 15370.304 44100 01 0.250 0.231 0.250 0.412 OK
Rafael Devers1B 6826663 0.237 9330.296 43211 10 0.667 0.205 0.277 0.409 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 6023079 0.343 3240.378 43000 12 0.000 0.335 0.365 0.455 OK
Willy AdamesSS 6626663 0.237 11290.282 43100 11 0.333 0.219 0.273 0.448 OK
Matt Chapman3B 6724864 0.258 6370.340 43111 10 0.333 0.309 0.387 0.550 OK
Drew GilbertCF 4613331 0.233 3130.282 43011 02 0.000 0.213 0.267 0.349 OK
Daniel SusacC 258125 0.309 0120.367 44000 00 0.000 0.162 0.218 0.262 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36318 44 48 0.258

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Javier AssadStarter 930.05.10 1.1675.719 5.04112695 5.0 6 1
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever 1714.52.48 1.3109.916 2.00000136 2.0 1 0
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 2926.33.08 1.48312.035 1.04332133 1.0 1 3

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Landen RouppStarter 1367.84.12 1.32710.277 5.13222596 5.1 5 2
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 2825.73.85 1.36211.232 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 2928.13.52 1.0688.326 1.10000211 1.1 2 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 2216.34.42 1.84014.927 1.01110118 1.0 1 1
Dylan SmithMiddle Reliever 53.30.00 0.60610.94 0.10000012 0.1 0 0

Game Summary

SF wins 4-3


Colorado Rockies @ Oakland Athletics

COL 26-43 (4.3 RPG / 5.75 RA)
1 - 5
OAK 33-35 (4.38 RPG / 4.99 RA)
WINNER: OAK wins 5-1 TARGET: COL 2 - 5 OAK (OAK) Confidence: 57.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
COL00000010016
OAK10020020x58

COL Recent Form

Win%0.164
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-238.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.279
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff-154.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

COL Season Quality

Record26-43
Win%0.377
Run Diff-100
RD/Game-1.449

OAK Season Quality

Record33-35
Win%0.485
Run Diff-41
RD/Game-0.603

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.0091; margin adjustment: 0.4238; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Willi Castro2B 5619753 0.269 3220.338 43000 10 0.000 0.268 0.325 0.384 OK
Kyle Karros3B 6418643 0.231 3170.335 44000 00 0.000 0.256 0.351 0.382 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 6322762 0.273 8300.354 44100 01 0.250 0.239 0.319 0.401 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 6323858 0.244 18330.320 43000 11 0.000 0.235 0.311 0.502 OK
Troy JohnstonRF 6221568 0.316 2270.368 44300 01 0.750 0.293 0.346 0.434 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 6322849 0.215 5230.263 44111 03 0.250 0.218 0.258 0.363 OK
Cole CarriggCF 3113 0.273 110.333 44000 00 0.000 0.244 0.305 0.539 OK
Sterlin ThompsonLF 194811 0.229 070.327 43000 10 0.000 0.157 0.231 0.227 OK
Braxton FulfordDH 15255 0.200 140.276 44100 00 0.250 0.116 0.205 0.215 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36336 11 36 0.182

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shea LangeliersC 6225873 0.283 17350.345 44110 01 0.250 0.259 0.304 0.477 OK
Nick Kurtz1B 6724068 0.283 15490.438 42000 11 0.000 0.272 0.417 0.583 OK
Colby ThomasRF 235214 0.269 260.321 44212 00 0.500 0.254 0.309 0.430 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 6523957 0.238 11360.335 44100 01 0.250 0.270 0.368 0.559 OK
Jacob WilsonSS 3916147 0.292 3190.311 44211 00 0.500 0.271 0.297 0.396 OK
Jonah HeimDH 154310 0.233 460.267 44000 00 0.000 0.280 0.332 0.595 OK
Zack Gelof2B 4817346 0.266 8230.314 44111 02 0.250 0.174 0.224 0.341 OK
Max Muncy3B 2810023 0.230 290.301 43000 12 0.000 0.203 0.263 0.345 OK
Henry BolteCF 238124 0.296 170.356 33111 00 0.333 0.235 0.286 0.363 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35328 55 27 0.250

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael LorenzenStarter 1563.17.84 1.9817.855 4.07441587 4.0 5 4
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 2033.92.39 1.1508.532 1.10000217 1.1 2 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 2825.97.30 2.04612.235 1.01111020 1.0 0 1
Seth HalvorsenMiddle Reliever 1513.62.65 1.6919.314 1.20000021 1.2 0 0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Gage JumpStarter 318.12.49 1.1056.513 5.22002496 5.2 4 0
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 3525.13.59 1.99213.337 1.03110022 1.0 0 1
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 3024.45.90 1.59811.130 1.01001220 1.0 2 0
Scott BarlowMiddle Reliever 3025.03.60 1.2409.025 1.10000017 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

OAK wins 5-1


Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians

DET 29-41 (4.1 RPG / 4.24 RA)
2 - 3
CLE 38-33 (4.03 RPG / 4.1 RA)
WINNER: CLE wins 3-2 TARGET: DET 3 - 4 CLE (CLE) Confidence: 57.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
DET00100100026
CLE30000000x31

DET Recent Form

Win%0.306
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-109.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.254
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff-119.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

DET Season Quality

Record29-40
Win%0.420
Run Diff-9
RD/Game-0.130

CLE Season Quality

Record37-33
Win%0.529
Run Diff-6
RD/Game-0.086

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2071; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigle3B 6524269 0.285 4240.395 53000 22 0.000 0.256 0.367 0.425 OK
Gleyber Torres2B 4014942 0.282 4180.394 44000 01 0.000 0.264 0.359 0.403 OK
Riley GreeneLF 6824575 0.306 8330.396 43000 12 0.000 0.251 0.343 0.469 OK
Dillon DinglerC 6122458 0.259 16490.335 43100 12 0.333 0.277 0.335 0.546 OK
Kerry CarpenterRF 4613131 0.237 9260.313 43011 01 0.000 0.255 0.320 0.485 OK
Colt KeithDH 6218548 0.259 190.305 44200 01 0.500 0.238 0.280 0.388 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 6722647 0.208 10260.309 44100 00 0.250 0.219 0.306 0.412 OK
Zach McKinstrySS 4312725 0.197 2100.288 44000 01 0.000 0.248 0.344 0.381 OK
James OutmanCF 000 0.000 000.000 44211 00 0.500 0.099 0.160 0.211
TEAM TOTALS 37326 22 410 0.188

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Travis Bazzana2B 3914437 0.257 4170.349 42010 11 0.000 0.204 0.290 0.343 OK
José Ramírez3B 6925863 0.244 10330.344 43010 11 0.000 0.242 0.329 0.414 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 6223360 0.258 7340.327 44000 02 0.000 0.233 0.298 0.345 OK
Kyle ManzardoDH 5918343 0.235 7210.322 44000 01 0.000 0.236 0.320 0.398 OK
Rhys Hoskins1B 5014928 0.188 6230.330 33113 01 0.333 0.195 0.326 0.363 OK
Angel MartínezLF 6022153 0.240 11330.278 32000 10 0.000 0.153 0.181 0.304 OK
Steven KwanCF 6021947 0.215 1120.323 32000 00 0.000 0.231 0.326 0.300 OK
Patrick BaileyC 15488 0.167 140.196 33000 01 0.000 0.185 0.229 0.301 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 6621660 0.278 5310.354 32000 10 0.000 0.236 0.300 0.370 OK
TEAM TOTALS 31251 33 47 0.040

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack FlahertyStarter 1460.15.54 1.64711.577 4.23334686 4.2 6 3
Will VestMiddle Reliever 2118.17.46 1.65711.423 1.00000017 1.0 0 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 2927.61.63 1.5226.520 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Tyler HoltonMiddle Reliever 3024.55.14 1.7969.927 1.00000118 1.0 1 0

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tanner BibeeStarter 1475.64.17 1.2577.563 6.041146104 6.0 6 1
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 2929.42.76 1.08814.146 1.02110118 1.0 1 1
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 1914.14.47 1.6318.914 1.00000316 1.0 3 0
Shawn ArmstrongMiddle Reliever 2016.22.22 1.29611.120 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
Colin HoldermanMiddle Reliever 2122.22.03 0.90111.428 0.00000014 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

CLE wins 3-2


Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals

HOU 31-39 (4.5 RPG / 5.04 RA)
3 - 2
KC 28-41 (3.9 RPG / 4.62 RA)
WINNER: HOU wins 3-2 TARGET: HOU 3 - 2 KC (HOU) Confidence: 56.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
HOU03000000038
KC10100000024

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.377
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff-187.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

KC Recent Form

Win%0.148
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff-173.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

HOU Season Quality

Record31-39
Win%0.443
Run Diff-38
RD/Game-0.543

KC Season Quality

Record28-41
Win%0.406
Run Diff-50
RD/Game-0.725

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2374; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 3112134 0.281 3120.348 55100 02 0.200 0.246 0.309 0.375 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 6824378 0.321 22480.436 44100 01 0.250 0.294 0.401 0.541 OK
Christian Walker1B 6825364 0.253 16480.324 43000 11 0.000 0.241 0.297 0.421 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 6322551 0.227 9330.326 44100 00 0.250 0.227 0.309 0.402 OK
Jose Altuve2B 4818142 0.232 5130.314 44100 01 0.250 0.205 0.286 0.366 OK
Joey LoperfidoLF 216216 0.258 070.338 43000 10 0.000 0.235 0.312 0.357 OK
Cam SmithRF 6722750 0.220 7260.309 44111 02 0.250 0.230 0.307 0.397 OK
Taylor TrammellCF 236919 0.275 060.324 44210 01 0.500 0.136 0.186 0.243 OK
Christian VázquezC 4513732 0.234 4190.286 44112 01 0.250 0.208 0.257 0.321 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37358 33 29 0.229

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carter JensenDH 6120444 0.216 8310.286 43111 10 0.333 0.218 0.277 0.387 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 6827075 0.278 9260.348 44100 00 0.250 0.248 0.316 0.384 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 6524254 0.223 6300.312 44211 00 0.500 0.250 0.330 0.383 OK
Maikel Garcia3B 6023763 0.266 3240.323 44000 01 0.000 0.241 0.302 0.367 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 6220556 0.273 8190.344 43000 01 0.000 0.232 0.302 0.419 OK
Salvador PerezC 6224048 0.200 9260.249 44000 00 0.000 0.192 0.227 0.293 OK
Michael Massey2B 4914537 0.255 6200.275 43000 00 0.000 0.164 0.192 0.308 OK
Kameron MisnerCF 121 0.500 010.667 44000 01 0.000 0.122 0.373 0.185 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 5718339 0.213 3170.333 32000 10 0.000 0.206 0.316 0.304 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35314 22 23 0.129

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tatsuya ImaiStarter 832.75.50 1.4689.936 4.23222182 4.2 1 2
Josh HaderMiddle Reliever 44.00.00 0.25015.87 1.00000214 1.0 2 0
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 2624.72.91 1.4988.022 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 2520.07.65 2.10014.031 1.1100006 1.1 0 0
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 2724.93.61 1.16510.128 1.00000015 1.0 0 0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Luinder AvilaStarter 1231.14.05 1.6088.128 4.16221478 4.1 4 2
Alex LangeMiddle Reliever 2928.94.36 1.55710.634 1.11000120 1.1 1 0
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 2622.75.55 1.9388.722 1.01110018 1.0 0 1
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 2824.52.20 1.10210.729 1.10001221 1.1 2 0
Matt StrahmMiddle Reliever 2119.44.64 1.2898.418 1.00000214 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

HOU wins 3-2


Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox

LAD 44-25 (5.41 RPG / 3.33 RA)
6 - 1
CHW 36-31 (4.75 RPG / 4.6 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 6-1 TARGET: LAD 5 - 2 CHW (LAD) Confidence: 57.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
LAD010014000610
CHW00000000114

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.339
Avg Runs1.6
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff-73.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.328
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.4
Run Diff-64.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

LAD Season Quality

Record44-25
Win%0.638
Run Diff143
RD/Game2.072

CHW Season Quality

Record36-31
Win%0.537
Run Diff10
RD/Game0.149

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.0738; margin adjustment: -0.871; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Alex CallLF 327921 0.266 0130.366 54111 10 0.250 0.166 0.272 0.257 OK
Andy PagesCF 6826274 0.282 15560.328 55212 01 0.400 0.263 0.307 0.481 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 6625071 0.284 10370.372 55000 00 0.000 0.295 0.376 0.478 OK
Mookie BettsSS 3313525 0.185 6170.250 54110 11 0.250 0.214 0.279 0.335 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 6524157 0.237 5340.332 54100 11 0.250 0.237 0.332 0.380 OK
Miguel Rojas2B 399925 0.253 1110.287 55000 01 0.000 0.254 0.296 0.354 OK
Max Muncy3B 6220755 0.266 14240.361 44211 01 0.500 0.289 0.376 0.472 OK
Santiago EspinalDH 245213 0.250 150.259 43111 10 0.333 0.240 0.260 0.372 OK
Chuckie RobinsonC 000 0.000 000.000 43211 10 0.667 0.242 0.304 0.398
TEAM TOTALS 423710 66 55 0.270

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 4816547 0.285 1150.387 44100 00 0.250 0.266 0.320 0.378 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 6523958 0.243 16430.367 44000 01 0.000 0.235 0.345 0.440 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 6019245 0.234 6300.292 43111 12 0.333 0.224 0.285 0.387 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 6423653 0.225 16380.322 44000 02 0.000 0.212 0.287 0.426 OK
Braden MontgomeryRF 294 0.444 130.444 44000 02 0.000 0.206 0.215 0.533 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 6424567 0.273 5210.341 33000 01 0.000 0.249 0.310 0.352 OK
Jacob Gonzalez1B 9268 0.308 150.419 33000 00 0.000 0.265 0.355 0.406 OK
Tristan PetersCF 5916850 0.298 2180.352 33200 00 0.667 0.185 0.239 0.335 OK
Drew RomoC 237612 0.158 5110.253 33000 02 0.000 0.099 0.185 0.226 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32314 11 110 0.129

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Roki SasakiStarter 1157.34.08 1.2749.460 5.23001892 5.2 8 0
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 3126.92.68 0.81811.735 1.10000112 1.1 1 0
Kyle HurtMiddle Reliever 2220.44.41 1.27511.927 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 3017.23.66 1.33716.231 1.01110016 1.0 0 1

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Anthony KayStarter 1359.04.58 1.5087.046 5.074451104 5.0 1 4
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 1.01110116 1.0 1 1
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 2.02000031 2.0 0 0
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever 12.18.57 1.9054.31 1.00110311 1.0 3 1

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-1


Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates

MIA 35-35 (4.34 RPG / 4.36 RA)
2 - 5
PIT 35-35 (5.06 RPG / 4.84 RA)
WINNER: PIT wins 5-2 TARGET: MIA 2 - 3 PIT (PIT) Confidence: 55.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
MIA10000010025
PIT12020000x510

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.328
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-125.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.305
Avg Runs1.7
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-116.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

MIA Season Quality

Record34-35
Win%0.493
Run Diff-6
RD/Game-0.087

PIT Season Quality

Record35-34
Win%0.507
Run Diff20
RD/Game0.290

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3986; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Liam HicksDH 6621958 0.265 12480.346 43000 11 0.000 0.254 0.325 0.410 OK
Otto LopezSS 6827093 0.344 5300.372 44100 02 0.250 0.324 0.345 0.485 OK
Kyle Stowers1B 4616936 0.213 5200.298 44111 01 0.250 0.221 0.295 0.410 OK
Xavier Edwards2B 6925377 0.304 6230.388 43000 10 0.000 0.265 0.356 0.387 OK
Heriberto HernándezLF 4011927 0.227 5230.285 44000 02 0.000 0.263 0.312 0.405 OK
Owen CaissieRF 5816335 0.215 6330.273 44100 01 0.250 0.213 0.271 0.393 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 6622947 0.205 3170.337 43100 11 0.333 0.239 0.361 0.345 OK
Joe MackC 299022 0.244 1130.284 44111 00 0.250 0.252 0.290 0.360 OK
Javier Sanoja3B 4614638 0.260 2240.299 43000 10 0.000 0.235 0.272 0.373 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36325 22 48 0.156

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Spencer Horwitz1B 6320660 0.291 9300.388 55212 00 0.400 0.272 0.359 0.463 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 6324160 0.249 16450.335 44111 00 0.250 0.225 0.304 0.460 OK
Bryan ReynoldsDH 6924565 0.265 7400.389 43000 12 0.000 0.240 0.344 0.409 OK
Ryan O'HearnRF 5319455 0.284 10340.350 43100 10 0.333 0.249 0.309 0.423 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 6223571 0.302 2310.350 43210 10 0.667 0.261 0.305 0.365 OK
Tyler CallihanLF 6135 0.385 260.579 44000 02 0.000 0.154 0.389 0.626 OK
Endy RodríguezC 174610 0.217 150.333 44000 00 0.000 0.218 0.319 0.345 OK
Jake MangumCF 4212938 0.295 1100.338 44311 00 0.750 0.267 0.306 0.368 OK
Jared TrioloSS 3410925 0.229 060.294 44111 01 0.250 0.218 0.284 0.296 OK
TEAM TOTALS 373410 55 35 0.294

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sandy AlcantaraStarter 1488.44.38 1.2786.564 6.195523115 6.1 3 5
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 2117.67.16 1.59113.827 0.0000000 0.0 0 0
Ryan GustoMiddle Reliever 49.06.00 1.4449.09 1.1000014 1.1 1 0
Anthony BenderMiddle Reliever 2923.23.49 1.07813.234 0.10001116 0.1 1 0
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever 2624.33.70 1.27611.531 0.01000014 0.0 0 0

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Braxton AshcraftStarter 1377.83.35 1.1059.986 6.12113898 6.1 8 1
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 2927.72.60 0.83011.034 1.02110017 1.0 0 1
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 2925.94.52 1.5067.622 1.00000017 1.0 0 0
Evan SiskMiddle Reliever 2523.42.31 1.41013.836 0.21001018 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

PIT wins 5-2


New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays

NYY 41-26 (5.1 RPG / 3.57 RA)
4 - 1
TOR 33-36 (4.07 RPG / 4.33 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 4-1 TARGET: NYY 2 - 1 TOR (NYY) Confidence: 56.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
NYY03000100046
TOR00000100016

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.339
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff-71.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.210
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-134.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

NYY Season Quality

Record41-26
Win%0.612
Run Diff103
RD/Game1.537

TOR Season Quality

Record33-36
Win%0.478
Run Diff-18
RD/Game-0.261

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.9987; margin adjustment: -0.8395; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 6322051 0.232 8330.340 43000 10 0.000 0.271 0.367 0.454 OK
Ben RiceDH 6122767 0.295 18440.390 44110 00 0.250 0.267 0.359 0.510 OK
Paul Goldschmidt1B 4014341 0.287 8280.358 44111 03 0.250 0.287 0.349 0.491 OK
Cody BellingerLF 6623965 0.272 9430.372 44100 01 0.250 0.265 0.369 0.453 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 6423354 0.232 9290.309 44100 00 0.250 0.222 0.301 0.438 OK
Spencer JonesRF 143610 0.278 150.333 43110 11 0.333 0.296 0.348 0.445 OK
José CaballeroSS 5518247 0.258 5180.313 44113 00 0.250 0.247 0.293 0.374 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 5616636 0.217 7210.270 44000 00 0.000 0.252 0.302 0.426 OK
J.C. EscarraC 226811 0.162 070.205 33000 01 0.000 0.187 0.232 0.293 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 44 26 0.182

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
George SpringerDH 4718137 0.204 5140.291 54000 11 0.000 0.200 0.280 0.314 OK
Ernie Clement2B 6826380 0.304 7270.325 55100 00 0.200 0.265 0.289 0.451 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 6624168 0.282 3260.368 54100 10 0.250 0.221 0.307 0.308 OK
Alejandro KirkC 5203 0.150 120.227 43100 10 0.333 0.206 0.272 0.359 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 6624456 0.230 13380.309 43000 11 0.000 0.230 0.299 0.374 OK
Nathan LukesRF 3410633 0.311 1120.362 44211 00 0.500 0.274 0.308 0.379 OK
Myles StrawCF 4910527 0.257 290.313 43000 10 0.000 0.160 0.222 0.240 OK
Davis SchneiderLF 32719 0.127 180.279 44000 00 0.000 0.152 0.286 0.250 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 6521848 0.220 6300.265 43100 01 0.333 0.218 0.246 0.332 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39336 11 53 0.182

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryan WeathersStarter 1267.93.98 1.19310.579 6.041131102 6.0 1 1
David BednarMiddle Reliever 2725.84.19 1.51211.533 1.01000120 1.0 1 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 3221.42.52 1.58915.637 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 3325.02.52 1.68012.635 1.01001020 1.0 0 0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Trey YesavageStarter 841.53.25 1.2059.544 5.25331699 5.2 6 3
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 3232.40.56 1.08012.846 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 3228.22.23 1.1355.718 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Braydon FisherMiddle Reliever 3430.33.27 1.22111.338 1.11111024 1.1 0 1

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-1


Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers

PHI 37-32 (4.0 RPG / 4.29 RA)
2 - 5
MIL 42-25 (5.34 RPG / 3.72 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 5-2 TARGET: PHI 1 - 5 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
PHI00001000124
MIL02201000x59

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.279
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff-125.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.316
Avg Runs1.7
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff-60.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

PHI Season Quality

Record37-31
Win%0.544
Run Diff-14
RD/Game-0.206

MIL Season Quality

Record41-25
Win%0.621
Run Diff103
RD/Game1.561

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.8821; margin adjustment: 0.7905; applied: True

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 6424558 0.237 23410.353 44000 02 0.000 0.217 0.325 0.444 OK
Trea TurnerSS 6527162 0.229 7210.278 44111 01 0.250 0.221 0.271 0.322 OK
Bryce Harper1B 6623262 0.267 15380.378 44000 01 0.000 0.255 0.373 0.472 OK
Brandon MarshLF 6222072 0.327 8310.363 44000 01 0.000 0.276 0.316 0.485 OK
Alec Bohm3B 6423553 0.226 8340.283 44000 02 0.000 0.243 0.296 0.408 OK
Bryson Stott2B 6120948 0.230 6300.286 32111 10 0.500 0.251 0.314 0.395 OK
Gabriel Rincones Jr.RF 000 0.000 000.000 33100 00 0.333 0.243 0.307 0.395
J.T. RealmutoC 4415030 0.200 3110.280 33000 02 0.000 0.175 0.249 0.264 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 6018641 0.220 2120.282 33100 00 0.333 0.216 0.265 0.319 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32314 22 19 0.129

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Christian YelichDH 3614240 0.282 4210.354 55112 03 0.200 0.264 0.328 0.391 OK
Jackson ChourioLF 3213842 0.304 6200.358 55100 02 0.200 0.286 0.339 0.513 OK
Brice Turang2B 6223263 0.272 10420.389 53210 20 0.667 0.250 0.358 0.478 OK
William ContrerasC 6224670 0.285 6420.343 43100 00 0.333 0.267 0.324 0.419 OK
Jake BauersRF 5719956 0.281 12430.378 43112 10 0.333 0.278 0.389 0.558 OK
Andrew Vaughn1B 289234 0.370 2180.420 44000 02 0.000 0.338 0.378 0.552 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 5317041 0.241 2260.347 43110 11 0.333 0.261 0.352 0.438 OK
David Hamilton3B 5115837 0.234 3110.316 44111 01 0.250 0.245 0.323 0.385 OK
Joey OrtizSS 4713527 0.200 1140.295 43100 11 0.333 0.213 0.307 0.293 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39339 55 510 0.273

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tanner BanksStarter 2121.15.97 1.99111.527 3.26444492 3.2 4 4
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 2322.21.22 0.90113.834 1.01111020 1.0 0 1
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 3027.73.57 1.3009.730 1.11000132 1.1 1 0
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 2823.12.34 1.29911.329 1.10000321 1.1 3 0
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 3019.16.60 2.04215.132 0.21000219 0.2 2 0

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob MisiorowskiStarter 1377.31.51 0.81513.5116 6.13110889 6.1 8 1
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 2424.03.00 1.04211.631 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 2521.84.13 1.33010.325 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 3036.83.18 1.54913.756 0.21110118 0.2 1 1

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-2


San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles

SD 35-33 (3.79 RPG / 4.07 RA)
4 - 5
BAL 34-37 (4.76 RPG / 5.1 RA)
WINNER: BAL wins 5-4 TARGET: SD 3 - 4 BAL (BAL) Confidence: 56.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
SD00000200245
BAL00111002x510

SD Recent Form

Win%0.203
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-141.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.219
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-162.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

SD Season Quality

Record35-32
Win%0.522
Run Diff-15
RD/Game-0.224

BAL Season Quality

Record33-37
Win%0.471
Run Diff-28
RD/Game-0.400

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2526; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.2B 6525371 0.281 2200.349 44110 00 0.250 0.273 0.332 0.391 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 6324250 0.207 6250.275 44111 01 0.250 0.222 0.278 0.360 OK
Manny Machado3B 6523841 0.172 11340.253 44000 01 0.000 0.189 0.255 0.324 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 6322552 0.231 8270.303 43212 10 0.667 0.216 0.284 0.324 OK
Gavin SheetsRF 6019243 0.224 10270.313 43111 11 0.333 0.201 0.279 0.373 OK
Samad TaylorLF 5155 0.333 050.444 44000 02 0.000 0.157 0.283 0.268 OK
Ty France1B 4212934 0.264 6180.312 44000 02 0.000 0.214 0.268 0.366 OK
Will WagnerDH 243 0.750 000.833 33000 01 0.000 0.267 0.477 0.557 MODERATE
Freddy FerminC 3811718 0.154 3110.241 33000 01 0.000 0.182 0.249 0.374 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34325 44 29 0.156

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardLF 6724565 0.265 3190.411 54211 10 0.500 0.275 0.406 0.406 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 6728161 0.217 12310.282 55213 00 0.400 0.208 0.279 0.337 OK
Adley RutschmanC 4818150 0.276 8390.348 55100 01 0.200 0.276 0.347 0.484 OK
Pete Alonso1B 6826265 0.248 15440.322 44000 01 0.000 0.242 0.308 0.462 OK
Samuel BasalloDH 5518247 0.258 9270.318 43110 10 0.333 0.215 0.277 0.371 OK
Coby Mayo3B 5116934 0.201 9260.269 43000 12 0.000 0.212 0.267 0.415 OK
Colton CowserCF 5313531 0.230 6200.307 43111 12 0.333 0.231 0.311 0.422 OK
Tyler O'NeillRF 4011020 0.182 280.286 44310 00 0.750 0.225 0.308 0.336 OK
Jackson Holliday2B 206114 0.230 3100.314 43000 11 0.000 0.228 0.315 0.409 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393410 55 57 0.294

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Griffin CanningStarter 731.56.57 1.5249.433 4.293334108 4.2 4 3
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 2826.81.01 0.89618.856 1.10000121 1.1 1 0
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 2721.91.64 1.3247.017 1.00001217 1.0 2 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 3128.55.05 1.29812.941 1.01221020 1.0 0 2

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane BazStarter 1374.24.25 1.4298.066 6.132228109 6.1 8 2
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 3125.41.42 0.78711.031 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
Andrew KittredgeMiddle Reliever 1712.87.73 1.79710.515 1.00000018 1.0 0 0
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever 2918.72.41 0.7498.718 0.22220114 0.2 1 2

Game Summary

BAL wins 5-4


Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals

SEA 36-34 (4.24 RPG / 3.87 RA)
4 - 2
WAS 35-34 (5.39 RPG / 5.29 RA)
WINNER: SEA wins 4-2 TARGET: SEA 4 - 2 WAS (SEA) Confidence: 57.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
SEA00001300049
WAS00000000226

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.367
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff-97.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.250
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-145.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

SEA Season Quality

Record36-34
Win%0.514
Run Diff26
RD/Game0.371

WAS Season Quality

Record35-34
Win%0.507
Run Diff7
RD/Game0.101

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2805; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Cole Young2B 7025164 0.255 5320.321 54112 11 0.250 0.262 0.306 0.381 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 7028372 0.254 13340.314 55011 02 0.000 0.234 0.293 0.375 OK
Josh Naylor1B 6525766 0.257 7310.322 54310 10 0.750 0.255 0.312 0.383 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 7025975 0.290 7330.377 55000 03 0.000 0.277 0.346 0.443 OK
Luke RaleyRF 6218145 0.249 14330.310 44000 01 0.000 0.230 0.271 0.445 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 5915242 0.276 9260.333 43000 10 0.000 0.294 0.344 0.544 OK
Miles Mastrobuoni3B 272 0.286 000.286 44200 00 0.500 0.250 0.260 0.347 OK
Jhonny PeredaC 175616 0.286 240.344 43100 11 0.333 0.265 0.314 0.357 OK
Colt EmersonSS 206515 0.231 4100.315 44211 01 0.500 0.217 0.280 0.462 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40369 44 49 0.250

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodLF 6926271 0.271 18430.407 55000 00 0.000 0.259 0.379 0.490 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 6320855 0.264 8410.290 44100 01 0.250 0.173 0.204 0.380 OK
Curtis Mead3B 5416540 0.242 10290.349 43000 11 0.000 0.159 0.254 0.344 OK
CJ AbramsSS 6724771 0.287 14510.378 44210 01 0.500 0.264 0.334 0.482 OK
Dylan CrewsRF 187113 0.183 270.237 44100 01 0.250 0.206 0.232 0.322 OK
Daylen LileDH 6827172 0.266 8350.323 43000 10 0.000 0.277 0.338 0.425 OK
Jacob YoungCF 6021250 0.236 8270.283 43000 10 0.000 0.229 0.266 0.382 OK
Jorbit Vivas2B 4912630 0.238 190.315 44100 02 0.250 0.233 0.297 0.333 OK
Keibert RuizC 4213537 0.274 5270.296 43112 10 0.333 0.257 0.287 0.442 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37336 22 46 0.182

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryce MillerStarter 526.31.37 0.7989.929 5.13001589 5.1 5 0
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 2622.75.55 1.45414.737 1.11000020 1.1 0 0
José A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 3226.52.38 1.4728.826 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever 3225.32.85 1.6609.226 1.12222031 1.1 0 2

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zack LittellStarter 1363.44.83 1.3255.539 5.04113387 5.0 3 1
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 1817.74.07 1.4129.719 1.03331126 1.0 1 3
Gus VarlandMiddle Reliever 2620.04.95 1.95010.423 1.01000217 1.0 2 0
Orlando RibaltaMiddle Reliever 1918.41.96 0.9786.814 1.00000217 1.0 2 0
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 2039.52.51 1.1398.035 1.01000126 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

SEA wins 4-2


St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins

STL 37-29 (4.52 RPG / 4.35 RA)
1 - 5
MIN 31-39 (4.54 RPG / 5.13 RA)
WINNER: MIN wins 5-1 TARGET: STL 2 - 3 MIN (MIN) Confidence: 55.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
STL00000100017
MIN04001000x57

STL Recent Form

Win%0.158
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff-91.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.206
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff-178.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

STL Season Quality

Record37-29
Win%0.561
Run Diff11
RD/Game0.167

MIN Season Quality

Record31-39
Win%0.443
Run Diff-41
RD/Game-0.586

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.929; margin adjustment: -0.3902; applied: True

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 6123759 0.249 9260.355 55100 01 0.200 0.256 0.329 0.363 OK
Iván HerreraDH 6524162 0.257 7270.386 43100 11 0.333 0.262 0.358 0.379 OK
Alec Burleson1B 6425172 0.287 11470.351 43100 11 0.333 0.278 0.338 0.532 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 6425076 0.304 16490.361 44000 01 0.000 0.293 0.339 0.525 OK
Lars NootbaarLF 6225 0.227 250.346 44311 00 0.750 0.234 0.345 0.510 OK
Masyn WinnSS 5721650 0.231 2250.306 44000 02 0.000 0.235 0.305 0.342 OK
Jimmy CrooksC 7224 0.182 140.250 44000 01 0.000 0.236 0.301 0.414 OK
Levi Jordan3B 000 0.000 000.000 43000 11 0.000 0.243 0.309 0.388
Nathan ChurchCF 4415840 0.253 5170.283 44100 00 0.250 0.240 0.268 0.364 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 11 38 0.206

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trevor LarnachLF 5316843 0.256 3160.356 44100 03 0.250 0.154 0.246 0.263 OK
Byron BuxtonCF 5823861 0.256 20320.318 44111 01 0.250 0.237 0.292 0.511 OK
Kody ClemensRF 5619648 0.245 9210.312 44111 00 0.250 0.161 0.211 0.355 OK
Josh BellDH 6724556 0.229 7380.285 43000 10 0.000 0.231 0.276 0.403 OK
Royce Lewis1B 3612323 0.187 4140.279 43110 11 0.333 0.224 0.300 0.365 OK
Victor CaratiniC 4915533 0.213 3230.306 44100 02 0.250 0.262 0.332 0.396 OK
Brooks Lee3B 6423957 0.238 10370.293 43000 12 0.000 0.208 0.266 0.362 OK
Tristan GraySS 4111529 0.252 4260.294 33111 00 0.333 0.241 0.280 0.374 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 6322756 0.247 1210.320 33112 00 0.333 0.225 0.291 0.302 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34317 55 39 0.226

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle LeahyStarter 1258.34.48 1.5957.347 5.06553797 5.0 7 5
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 2927.73.90 1.22710.131 1.00000118 1.0 1 0
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 2923.73.42 1.3089.124 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 3124.74.37 1.49811.331 1.00000117 1.0 1 0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Joe RyanStarter 1475.43.10 1.00810.084 6.060026102 6.0 6 0
Yoendrys GómezMiddle Reliever 1712.21.48 1.23014.019 1.00001217 1.0 2 0
Anthony BandaMiddle Reliever 3222.06.14 1.63611.027 1.00000015 1.0 0 0
Travis AdamsMiddle Reliever 1012.47.98 1.69411.616 1.01110023 1.0 0 1

Game Summary

MIN wins 5-1


Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels

TB 40-25 (4.57 RPG / 4.38 RA)
2 - 1
LAA 27-42 (4.46 RPG / 5.07 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 2-1 TARGET: TB 2 - 1 LAA (TB) Confidence: 57.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
TB00000200023
LAA00000100017

TB Recent Form

Win%0.259
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-127.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.279
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff-151.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

TB Season Quality

Record40-25
Win%0.615
Run Diff12
RD/Game0.185

LAA Season Quality

Record27-42
Win%0.391
Run Diff-42
RD/Game-0.609

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.1294; margin adjustment: -0.4744; applied: True

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 6223979 0.331 12460.404 44110 01 0.250 0.313 0.371 0.486 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 6423062 0.270 11450.376 43112 11 0.333 0.240 0.346 0.382 OK
Junior Caminero3B 6524568 0.278 14300.378 44000 01 0.000 0.253 0.352 0.418 OK
Ryan ViladeLF 3710030 0.300 3220.357 44000 00 0.000 0.297 0.357 0.457 OK
Austin SlaterRF 3123 0.250 010.250 44000 02 0.000 0.248 0.289 0.348 OK
Ben Williamson2B 4614136 0.255 0170.331 42000 21 0.000 0.236 0.307 0.333 OK
Chandler SimpsonCF 6023664 0.271 0120.304 33000 01 0.000 0.139 0.179 0.198 OK
Nick FortesC 5115642 0.269 1140.311 33000 01 0.000 0.275 0.293 0.391 OK
Taylor WallsSS 4614631 0.212 0150.314 33100 00 0.333 0.214 0.303 0.301 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33303 22 38 0.100

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 6625859 0.229 13320.338 44000 00 0.000 0.218 0.303 0.449 OK
Mike TroutCF 6824154 0.224 15320.391 44100 02 0.250 0.202 0.347 0.385 OK
Jo AdellRF 6926764 0.240 10390.283 44211 00 0.500 0.241 0.264 0.381 OK
Oswald Peraza2B 5919552 0.267 7210.316 44100 00 0.250 0.239 0.266 0.387 OK
Trey Mancini1B 393 0.333 020.300 44200 00 0.500 0.261 0.272 0.354 OK
Denzer Guzman3B 2100 0.000 010.000 44000 00 0.000 0.190 0.199 0.270
Nick MadrigalDH 103010 0.333 010.412 44000 02 0.000 0.253 0.342 0.348 OK
Logan O'HoppeC 4313729 0.212 3160.292 43100 11 0.333 0.221 0.280 0.372 OK
Jose SiriLF 164013 0.325 2100.357 43000 10 0.000 0.247 0.289 0.415 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36347 11 25 0.206

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane McClanahanStarter 1258.62.92 1.1269.159 5.25111590 5.2 5 1
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 2926.42.05 1.02310.230 1.11001012 1.1 0 0
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 2925.02.88 1.0007.922 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Garrett CleavingerMiddle Reliever 1714.45.00 1.52813.121 1.00000016 1.0 0 0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sam AldegheriStarter 411.32.39 1.4166.48 3.02221562 3.0 5 2
Kirby YatesMiddle Reliever 1210.44.33 1.25013.015 2.00001129 2.0 1 0
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 2527.72.27 1.22711.034 2.01001232 2.0 2 0
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever 2919.02.37 1.73711.424 2.00000029 2.0 0 0

Game Summary

TB wins 2-1


Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox

TEX 34-35 (4.0 RPG / 3.9 RA)
2 - 3
BOS 28-39 (4.0 RPG / 4.07 RA)
WINNER: BOS wins 3-2 TARGET: TEX 2 - 3 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 55.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
TEX00000001127
BOS00000003x36

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.328
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-111.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.214
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-125.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

TEX Season Quality

Record34-34
Win%0.500
Run Diff16
RD/Game0.235

BOS Season Quality

Record27-39
Win%0.409
Run Diff-14
RD/Game-0.212

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5838; margin adjustment: -0.2452; applied: True

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc PedersonDH 6217040 0.235 8230.342 44000 01 0.000 0.148 0.255 0.300 OK
Josh Jung3B 6324375 0.309 8300.363 44000 00 0.000 0.276 0.326 0.424 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 6625566 0.259 7230.334 44210 02 0.500 0.262 0.321 0.401 OK
Wyatt LangfordLF 2610322 0.214 250.257 44100 00 0.250 0.219 0.265 0.372 OK
Ezequiel DuranSS 5819658 0.296 4350.349 44200 01 0.500 0.198 0.253 0.335 OK
Evan CarterCF 6419134 0.178 6210.288 43000 11 0.000 0.144 0.246 0.240 OK
Jake Burger1B 6624461 0.250 11410.307 44212 00 0.500 0.283 0.349 0.462 OK
Kyle HigashiokaC 3410825 0.231 4110.314 44000 00 0.000 0.148 0.242 0.256 OK
Nicky Lopez2B 113410 0.294 150.351 33000 00 0.000 0.150 0.196 0.233 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35347 22 15 0.206

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Mickey GasperDH 247721 0.273 050.321 44210 00 0.500 0.224 0.270 0.327 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 6122563 0.280 6270.339 44213 00 0.500 0.238 0.280 0.388 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 6525369 0.273 7290.333 44000 01 0.000 0.224 0.282 0.354 OK
Willson Contreras1B 6222564 0.284 13390.379 43000 11 0.000 0.239 0.306 0.444 OK
Jarren DuranLF 6124852 0.210 10340.269 33000 00 0.000 0.198 0.246 0.342 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 5819139 0.204 3250.264 33000 01 0.000 0.235 0.278 0.424 OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B 359826 0.265 1120.333 33000 01 0.000 0.215 0.286 0.311 OK
Marcelo MayerSS 5717038 0.224 3170.282 33110 01 0.333 0.138 0.189 0.246 OK
Connor WongC 247219 0.264 0100.338 33100 00 0.333 0.148 0.213 0.274 OK
TEAM TOTALS 31306 33 15 0.200

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack LeiterStarter 1368.24.88 1.42210.076 5.23001395 5.2 3 0
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 2430.60.88 0.5239.733 1.10000119 1.1 1 0
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 2427.51.64 0.7646.520 1.0333018 1.0 1 3

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sonny GrayStarter 1155.43.25 1.2647.144 5.23000580 5.2 5 0
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 2019.20.47 0.93812.226 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 2120.23.12 1.13911.626 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Justin SlatenMiddle Reliever 1410.09.00 2.00014.416 1.03111025 1.0 0 1

Game Summary

BOS wins 3-2