| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ CIN | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 | ARI | ARI | ARI wins 3-2 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| ATL @ NYM | 3 - 1 | 5 - 0 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 5-0 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| CHC @ SF | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | SF | SF | SF wins 4-3 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| COL @ OAK | 2 - 5 | 1 - 5 | OAK | OAK | OAK wins 5-1 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| DET @ CLE | 3 - 4 | 2 - 3 | CLE | CLE | CLE wins 3-2 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| HOU @ KC | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 | HOU | HOU | HOU wins 3-2 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| LAD @ CHW | 5 - 2 | 6 - 1 | LAD | LAD | LAD wins 6-1 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| MIA @ PIT | 2 - 3 | 2 - 5 | PIT | PIT | PIT wins 5-2 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| NYY @ TOR | 2 - 1 | 4 - 1 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 4-1 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| PHI @ MIL | 1 - 5 | 2 - 5 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 5-2 | 66% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| SD @ BAL | 3 - 4 | 4 - 5 | BAL | BAL | BAL wins 5-4 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| SEA @ WAS | 4 - 2 | 4 - 2 | SEA | SEA | SEA wins 4-2 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| STL @ MIN | 2 - 3 | 1 - 5 | MIN | MIN | MIN wins 5-1 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| TB @ LAA | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 | TB | TB | TB wins 2-1 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| TEX @ BOS | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 | BOS | BOS | BOS wins 3-2 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
Quality edge: -0.4866; margin adjustment: -0.2044; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 63 | 258 | 64 | 0.248 | 11 | 40 | 0.296 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.226 | 0.272 | 0.395 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 65 | 239 | 67 | 0.280 | 11 | 33 | 0.372 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.248 | 0.332 | 0.539 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | C | 44 | 146 | 38 | 0.260 | 5 | 22 | 0.343 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.349 | 0.468 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 63 | 210 | 53 | 0.252 | 8 | 30 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.300 | 0.375 | OK |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 1B | 58 | 218 | 60 | 0.275 | 7 | 37 | 0.303 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.214 | 0.241 | 0.333 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 65 | 224 | 54 | 0.241 | 3 | 22 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.267 | 0.370 | 0.366 | OK |
| Jordan Lawlar | CF | 6 | 18 | 6 | 0.333 | 1 | 2 | 0.400 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.276 | 0.318 | 0.462 | OK |
| LuJames Groover | DH | 4 | 15 | 3 | 0.200 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.224 | 0.234 | 0.306 | OK |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | LF | 30 | 105 | 28 | 0.267 | 0 | 8 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.145 | 0.195 | 0.256 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Dane Myers | CF | 42 | 95 | 26 | 0.274 | 3 | 12 | 0.352 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.184 | 0.254 | 0.287 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | DH | 38 | 145 | 40 | 0.276 | 11 | 29 | 0.365 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.237 | 0.322 | 0.462 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 1B | 66 | 248 | 64 | 0.258 | 13 | 42 | 0.356 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.328 | 0.408 | OK |
| Spencer Steer | 2B | 64 | 228 | 59 | 0.259 | 10 | 26 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.295 | 0.416 | OK |
| Eugenio Suárez | 3B | 40 | 145 | 31 | 0.214 | 5 | 18 | 0.281 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.275 | 0.364 | OK |
| Blake Dunn | LF | 23 | 97 | 28 | 0.289 | 2 | 5 | 0.337 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.164 | 0.212 | 0.264 | OK |
| Noelvi Marte | RF | 15 | 44 | 9 | 0.205 | 0 | 0 | 0.255 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.228 | 0.276 | 0.310 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | 52 | 165 | 35 | 0.212 | 5 | 19 | 0.309 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.337 | 0.393 | OK |
| Matt McLain | SS | 60 | 220 | 46 | 0.209 | 8 | 25 | 0.307 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.222 | 0.318 | 0.443 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0.188 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Starter | 13 | 77.5 | 2.55 | 1.200 | 6.6 | 57 | 6.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 99 | 6.2 | 7 | 0 |
| Paul Sewald | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Ginkel | Middle Reliever | 1 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 2.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Juan Morillo | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.2 | 15.00 | 3.333 | 7.5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever | 2 | 2.1 | 0.00 | 0.476 | 8.6 | 2 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Nick Lodolo | Starter | 6 | 31.5 | 5.71 | 1.556 | 7.1 | 25 | 4.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 92 | 4.2 | 3 | 3 |
| Tony Santillan | Middle Reliever | 29 | 23.9 | 4.90 | 1.548 | 9.4 | 25 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Burke | Middle Reliever | 33 | 26.4 | 3.75 | 1.667 | 10.2 | 30 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Sam Moll | Middle Reliever | 30 | 22.4 | 3.62 | 1.339 | 12.5 | 31 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
ARI wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Quality edge: -2.2721; margin adjustment: -0.9543; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Mauricio Dubón | LF | 64 | 234 | 61 | 0.261 | 6 | 37 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.268 | 0.323 | 0.453 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 63 | 232 | 71 | 0.306 | 13 | 40 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.294 | 0.327 | 0.451 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 68 | 265 | 72 | 0.272 | 19 | 50 | 0.344 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.338 | 0.536 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 68 | 261 | 73 | 0.280 | 10 | 36 | 0.334 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.271 | 0.327 | 0.417 | OK |
| Dominic Smith | DH | 51 | 148 | 43 | 0.291 | 6 | 27 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.258 | 0.294 | 0.413 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 68 | 247 | 51 | 0.206 | 8 | 34 | 0.285 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.223 | 0.289 | 0.355 | OK |
| Mike Yastrzemski | RF | 60 | 171 | 40 | 0.234 | 3 | 16 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.230 | 0.303 | 0.342 | OK |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SS | 15 | 52 | 5 | 0.096 | 0 | 3 | 0.175 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.169 | 0.239 | 0.224 | OK |
| Austin Wynns | C | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0.100 | 0 | 0 | 0.100 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.153 | 0.204 | 0.210 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 35 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carson Benge | RF | 63 | 234 | 61 | 0.261 | 7 | 26 | 0.319 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.251 | 0.294 | 0.418 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | SS | 67 | 270 | 61 | 0.226 | 6 | 34 | 0.274 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.254 | 0.334 | OK |
| Juan Soto | LF | 50 | 185 | 52 | 0.281 | 14 | 31 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.318 | 0.425 | OK |
| Jared Young | 1B | 22 | 66 | 19 | 0.288 | 4 | 8 | 0.356 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.153 | 0.219 | 0.307 | OK |
| A.J. Ewing | CF | 28 | 95 | 25 | 0.263 | 1 | 7 | 0.343 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.327 | 0.352 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 67 | 242 | 54 | 0.223 | 8 | 25 | 0.274 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.272 | 0.396 | OK |
| Brett Baty | 3B | 60 | 202 | 47 | 0.233 | 3 | 25 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.208 | 0.261 | 0.308 | OK |
| MJ Melendez | DH | 41 | 94 | 19 | 0.202 | 4 | 11 | 0.303 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 0.261 | 0.382 | OK |
| Luis Torrens | C | 40 | 112 | 24 | 0.214 | 1 | 15 | 0.273 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.139 | 0.173 | 0.270 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.069 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Spencer Strider | Starter | 7 | 35.3 | 4.08 | 1.303 | 11.0 | 43 | 5.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 103 | 5.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Middle Reliever | 21 | 21.4 | 1.26 | 0.981 | 10.9 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Robert Suarez | Middle Reliever | 29 | 28.5 | 0.63 | 0.842 | 7.9 | 25 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Middle Reliever | 32 | 28.2 | 1.28 | 0.674 | 12.4 | 39 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Nolan McLean | Starter | 13 | 70.7 | 4.07 | 1.132 | 10.4 | 82 | 5.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 94 | 5.1 | 6 | 2 |
| Devin Williams | Middle Reliever | 24 | 20.6 | 4.81 | 1.408 | 15.3 | 35 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 28 | 27.9 | 2.58 | 1.004 | 8.7 | 27 | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 1.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever | 28 | 20.9 | 1.72 | 1.435 | 12.9 | 30 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 1.2 | 3 | 0 |
ATL wins 5-0
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| SF | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | x | 4 | 8 |
Quality edge: -0.9493; margin adjustment: -0.3987; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 68 | 253 | 66 | 0.261 | 11 | 32 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.271 | 0.325 | 0.496 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 67 | 268 | 67 | 0.250 | 6 | 22 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.223 | 0.307 | 0.359 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 67 | 243 | 62 | 0.255 | 7 | 38 | 0.378 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.366 | 0.429 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 64 | 238 | 56 | 0.235 | 15 | 36 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.337 | 0.472 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 55 | 202 | 50 | 0.248 | 10 | 26 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.245 | 0.313 | 0.415 | OK |
| Nico Hoerner | 2B | 67 | 269 | 67 | 0.249 | 4 | 33 | 0.326 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.308 | 0.332 | OK |
| Moisés Ballesteros | DH | 54 | 146 | 35 | 0.240 | 6 | 22 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.320 | 0.378 | OK |
| Carson Kelly | C | 49 | 163 | 46 | 0.282 | 3 | 18 | 0.354 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.239 | 0.299 | 0.366 | OK |
| Dansby Swanson | SS | 63 | 210 | 38 | 0.181 | 7 | 28 | 0.289 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.183 | 0.288 | 0.300 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 65 | 259 | 86 | 0.332 | 2 | 24 | 0.366 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.291 | 0.323 | 0.416 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | DH | 28 | 94 | 28 | 0.298 | 4 | 12 | 0.385 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.282 | 0.369 | 0.512 | OK |
| Casey Schmitt | LF | 60 | 242 | 66 | 0.273 | 15 | 37 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.231 | 0.250 | 0.412 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | 1B | 68 | 266 | 63 | 0.237 | 9 | 33 | 0.296 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.205 | 0.277 | 0.409 | OK |
| Jung Hoo Lee | RF | 60 | 230 | 79 | 0.343 | 3 | 24 | 0.378 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.335 | 0.365 | 0.455 | OK |
| Willy Adames | SS | 66 | 266 | 63 | 0.237 | 11 | 29 | 0.282 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.219 | 0.273 | 0.448 | OK |
| Matt Chapman | 3B | 67 | 248 | 64 | 0.258 | 6 | 37 | 0.340 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.309 | 0.387 | 0.550 | OK |
| Drew Gilbert | CF | 46 | 133 | 31 | 0.233 | 3 | 13 | 0.282 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.267 | 0.349 | OK |
| Daniel Susac | C | 25 | 81 | 25 | 0.309 | 0 | 12 | 0.367 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.162 | 0.218 | 0.262 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 31 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0.258 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Javier Assad | Starter | 9 | 30.0 | 5.10 | 1.167 | 5.7 | 19 | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 95 | 5.0 | 6 | 1 |
| Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever | 17 | 14.5 | 2.48 | 1.310 | 9.9 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 36 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jacob Webb | Middle Reliever | 29 | 26.3 | 3.08 | 1.483 | 12.0 | 35 | 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Landen Roupp | Starter | 13 | 67.8 | 4.12 | 1.327 | 10.2 | 77 | 5.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 96 | 5.1 | 5 | 2 |
| Caleb Kilian | Middle Reliever | 28 | 25.7 | 3.85 | 1.362 | 11.2 | 32 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Keaton Winn | Middle Reliever | 29 | 28.1 | 3.52 | 1.068 | 8.3 | 26 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Erik Miller | Middle Reliever | 22 | 16.3 | 4.42 | 1.840 | 14.9 | 27 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Dylan Smith | Middle Reliever | 5 | 3.3 | 0.00 | 0.606 | 10.9 | 4 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
SF wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| OAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | x | 5 | 8 |
Quality edge: 1.0091; margin adjustment: 0.4238; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Willi Castro | 2B | 56 | 197 | 53 | 0.269 | 3 | 22 | 0.338 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.268 | 0.325 | 0.384 | OK |
| Kyle Karros | 3B | 64 | 186 | 43 | 0.231 | 3 | 17 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.351 | 0.382 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 63 | 227 | 62 | 0.273 | 8 | 30 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.239 | 0.319 | 0.401 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | C | 63 | 238 | 58 | 0.244 | 18 | 33 | 0.320 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.311 | 0.502 | OK |
| Troy Johnston | RF | 62 | 215 | 68 | 0.316 | 2 | 27 | 0.368 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.293 | 0.346 | 0.434 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 63 | 228 | 49 | 0.215 | 5 | 23 | 0.263 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.218 | 0.258 | 0.363 | OK |
| Cole Carrigg | CF | 3 | 11 | 3 | 0.273 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.305 | 0.539 | OK |
| Sterlin Thompson | LF | 19 | 48 | 11 | 0.229 | 0 | 7 | 0.327 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.157 | 0.231 | 0.227 | OK |
| Braxton Fulford | DH | 15 | 25 | 5 | 0.200 | 1 | 4 | 0.276 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.116 | 0.205 | 0.215 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shea Langeliers | C | 62 | 258 | 73 | 0.283 | 17 | 35 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.259 | 0.304 | 0.477 | OK |
| Nick Kurtz | 1B | 67 | 240 | 68 | 0.283 | 15 | 49 | 0.438 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.272 | 0.417 | 0.583 | OK |
| Colby Thomas | RF | 23 | 52 | 14 | 0.269 | 2 | 6 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.254 | 0.309 | 0.430 | OK |
| Tyler Soderstrom | LF | 65 | 239 | 57 | 0.238 | 11 | 36 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.270 | 0.368 | 0.559 | OK |
| Jacob Wilson | SS | 39 | 161 | 47 | 0.292 | 3 | 19 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.271 | 0.297 | 0.396 | OK |
| Jonah Heim | DH | 15 | 43 | 10 | 0.233 | 4 | 6 | 0.267 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.280 | 0.332 | 0.595 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | 2B | 48 | 173 | 46 | 0.266 | 8 | 23 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.174 | 0.224 | 0.341 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 28 | 100 | 23 | 0.230 | 2 | 9 | 0.301 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.263 | 0.345 | OK |
| Henry Bolte | CF | 23 | 81 | 24 | 0.296 | 1 | 7 | 0.356 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.235 | 0.286 | 0.363 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael Lorenzen | Starter | 15 | 63.1 | 7.84 | 1.981 | 7.8 | 55 | 4.0 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 87 | 4.0 | 5 | 4 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever | 20 | 33.9 | 2.39 | 1.150 | 8.5 | 32 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 28 | 25.9 | 7.30 | 2.046 | 12.2 | 35 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Seth Halvorsen | Middle Reliever | 15 | 13.6 | 2.65 | 1.691 | 9.3 | 14 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Gage Jump | Starter | 3 | 18.1 | 2.49 | 1.105 | 6.5 | 13 | 5.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 96 | 5.2 | 4 | 0 |
| Hogan Harris | Middle Reliever | 35 | 25.1 | 3.59 | 1.992 | 13.3 | 37 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | Middle Reliever | 30 | 24.4 | 5.90 | 1.598 | 11.1 | 30 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Scott Barlow | Middle Reliever | 30 | 25.0 | 3.60 | 1.240 | 9.0 | 25 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
OAK wins 5-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| CLE | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 3 | 1 |
Quality edge: 0.2071; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kevin McGonigle | 3B | 65 | 242 | 69 | 0.285 | 4 | 24 | 0.395 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.367 | 0.425 | OK |
| Gleyber Torres | 2B | 40 | 149 | 42 | 0.282 | 4 | 18 | 0.394 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.264 | 0.359 | 0.403 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 68 | 245 | 75 | 0.306 | 8 | 33 | 0.396 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 0.343 | 0.469 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | C | 61 | 224 | 58 | 0.259 | 16 | 49 | 0.335 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.277 | 0.335 | 0.546 | OK |
| Kerry Carpenter | RF | 46 | 131 | 31 | 0.237 | 9 | 26 | 0.313 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.320 | 0.485 | OK |
| Colt Keith | DH | 62 | 185 | 48 | 0.259 | 1 | 9 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.238 | 0.280 | 0.388 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 67 | 226 | 47 | 0.208 | 10 | 26 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.219 | 0.306 | 0.412 | OK |
| Zach McKinstry | SS | 43 | 127 | 25 | 0.197 | 2 | 10 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.344 | 0.381 | OK |
| James Outman | CF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.099 | 0.160 | 0.211 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0.188 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 39 | 144 | 37 | 0.257 | 4 | 17 | 0.349 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.204 | 0.290 | 0.343 | OK |
| José Ramírez | 3B | 69 | 258 | 63 | 0.244 | 10 | 33 | 0.344 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.329 | 0.414 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | RF | 62 | 233 | 60 | 0.258 | 7 | 34 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.298 | 0.345 | OK |
| Kyle Manzardo | DH | 59 | 183 | 43 | 0.235 | 7 | 21 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.320 | 0.398 | OK |
| Rhys Hoskins | 1B | 50 | 149 | 28 | 0.188 | 6 | 23 | 0.330 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.195 | 0.326 | 0.363 | OK |
| Angel Martínez | LF | 60 | 221 | 53 | 0.240 | 11 | 33 | 0.278 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.153 | 0.181 | 0.304 | OK |
| Steven Kwan | CF | 60 | 219 | 47 | 0.215 | 1 | 12 | 0.323 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.326 | 0.300 | OK |
| Patrick Bailey | C | 15 | 48 | 8 | 0.167 | 1 | 4 | 0.196 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.185 | 0.229 | 0.301 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 66 | 216 | 60 | 0.278 | 5 | 31 | 0.354 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.300 | 0.370 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 31 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0.040 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jack Flaherty | Starter | 14 | 60.1 | 5.54 | 1.647 | 11.5 | 77 | 4.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 86 | 4.2 | 6 | 3 |
| Will Vest | Middle Reliever | 21 | 18.1 | 7.46 | 1.657 | 11.4 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever | 29 | 27.6 | 1.63 | 1.522 | 6.5 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Holton | Middle Reliever | 30 | 24.5 | 5.14 | 1.796 | 9.9 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tanner Bibee | Starter | 14 | 75.6 | 4.17 | 1.257 | 7.5 | 63 | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 104 | 6.0 | 6 | 1 |
| Cade Smith | Middle Reliever | 29 | 29.4 | 2.76 | 1.088 | 14.1 | 46 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Middle Reliever | 19 | 14.1 | 4.47 | 1.631 | 8.9 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Shawn Armstrong | Middle Reliever | 20 | 16.2 | 2.22 | 1.296 | 11.1 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colin Holderman | Middle Reliever | 21 | 22.2 | 2.03 | 0.901 | 11.4 | 28 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
CLE wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| KC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
Quality edge: -0.2374; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeremy Peña | SS | 31 | 121 | 34 | 0.281 | 3 | 12 | 0.348 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.246 | 0.309 | 0.375 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 68 | 243 | 78 | 0.321 | 22 | 48 | 0.436 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.294 | 0.401 | 0.541 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 68 | 253 | 64 | 0.253 | 16 | 48 | 0.324 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.297 | 0.421 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 63 | 225 | 51 | 0.227 | 9 | 33 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.227 | 0.309 | 0.402 | OK |
| Jose Altuve | 2B | 48 | 181 | 42 | 0.232 | 5 | 13 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.205 | 0.286 | 0.366 | OK |
| Joey Loperfido | LF | 21 | 62 | 16 | 0.258 | 0 | 7 | 0.338 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.312 | 0.357 | OK |
| Cam Smith | RF | 67 | 227 | 50 | 0.220 | 7 | 26 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.230 | 0.307 | 0.397 | OK |
| Taylor Trammell | CF | 23 | 69 | 19 | 0.275 | 0 | 6 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.136 | 0.186 | 0.243 | OK |
| Christian Vázquez | C | 45 | 137 | 32 | 0.234 | 4 | 19 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.208 | 0.257 | 0.321 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carter Jensen | DH | 61 | 204 | 44 | 0.216 | 8 | 31 | 0.286 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.218 | 0.277 | 0.387 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 68 | 270 | 75 | 0.278 | 9 | 26 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.248 | 0.316 | 0.384 | OK |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | 65 | 242 | 54 | 0.223 | 6 | 30 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.250 | 0.330 | 0.383 | OK |
| Maikel Garcia | 3B | 60 | 237 | 63 | 0.266 | 3 | 24 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.302 | 0.367 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | RF | 62 | 205 | 56 | 0.273 | 8 | 19 | 0.344 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.302 | 0.419 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | C | 62 | 240 | 48 | 0.200 | 9 | 26 | 0.249 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.192 | 0.227 | 0.293 | OK |
| Michael Massey | 2B | 49 | 145 | 37 | 0.255 | 6 | 20 | 0.275 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.164 | 0.192 | 0.308 | OK |
| Kameron Misner | CF | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0 | 1 | 0.667 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.122 | 0.373 | 0.185 | OK |
| Isaac Collins | LF | 57 | 183 | 39 | 0.213 | 3 | 17 | 0.333 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.206 | 0.316 | 0.304 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tatsuya Imai | Starter | 8 | 32.7 | 5.50 | 1.468 | 9.9 | 36 | 4.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 82 | 4.2 | 1 | 2 |
| Josh Hader | Middle Reliever | 4 | 4.0 | 0.00 | 0.250 | 15.8 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Bryan King | Middle Reliever | 26 | 24.7 | 2.91 | 1.498 | 8.0 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Abreu | Middle Reliever | 25 | 20.0 | 7.65 | 2.100 | 14.0 | 31 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | Middle Reliever | 27 | 24.9 | 3.61 | 1.165 | 10.1 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Luinder Avila | Starter | 12 | 31.1 | 4.05 | 1.608 | 8.1 | 28 | 4.1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 78 | 4.1 | 4 | 2 |
| Alex Lange | Middle Reliever | 29 | 28.9 | 4.36 | 1.557 | 10.6 | 34 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Lucas Erceg | Middle Reliever | 26 | 22.7 | 5.55 | 1.938 | 8.7 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Middle Reliever | 28 | 24.5 | 2.20 | 1.102 | 10.7 | 29 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Strahm | Middle Reliever | 21 | 19.4 | 4.64 | 1.289 | 8.4 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
HOU wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| CHW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Quality edge: -2.0738; margin adjustment: -0.871; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Alex Call | LF | 32 | 79 | 21 | 0.266 | 0 | 13 | 0.366 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.166 | 0.272 | 0.257 | OK |
| Andy Pages | CF | 68 | 262 | 74 | 0.282 | 15 | 56 | 0.328 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.263 | 0.307 | 0.481 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 66 | 250 | 71 | 0.284 | 10 | 37 | 0.372 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.295 | 0.376 | 0.478 | OK |
| Mookie Betts | SS | 33 | 135 | 25 | 0.185 | 6 | 17 | 0.250 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.214 | 0.279 | 0.335 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 65 | 241 | 57 | 0.237 | 5 | 34 | 0.332 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.237 | 0.332 | 0.380 | OK |
| Miguel Rojas | 2B | 39 | 99 | 25 | 0.253 | 1 | 11 | 0.287 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.296 | 0.354 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 62 | 207 | 55 | 0.266 | 14 | 24 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.289 | 0.376 | 0.472 | OK |
| Santiago Espinal | DH | 24 | 52 | 13 | 0.250 | 1 | 5 | 0.259 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.240 | 0.260 | 0.372 | OK |
| Chuckie Robinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.242 | 0.304 | 0.398 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 37 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 48 | 165 | 47 | 0.285 | 1 | 15 | 0.387 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.266 | 0.320 | 0.378 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 65 | 239 | 58 | 0.243 | 16 | 43 | 0.367 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.345 | 0.440 | OK |
| Andrew Benintendi | DH | 60 | 192 | 45 | 0.234 | 6 | 30 | 0.292 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.224 | 0.285 | 0.387 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 64 | 236 | 53 | 0.225 | 16 | 38 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.287 | 0.426 | OK |
| Braden Montgomery | RF | 2 | 9 | 4 | 0.444 | 1 | 3 | 0.444 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.206 | 0.215 | 0.533 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 64 | 245 | 67 | 0.273 | 5 | 21 | 0.341 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.310 | 0.352 | OK |
| Jacob Gonzalez | 1B | 9 | 26 | 8 | 0.308 | 1 | 5 | 0.419 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.355 | 0.406 | OK |
| Tristan Peters | CF | 59 | 168 | 50 | 0.298 | 2 | 18 | 0.352 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.185 | 0.239 | 0.335 | OK |
| Drew Romo | C | 23 | 76 | 12 | 0.158 | 5 | 11 | 0.253 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.099 | 0.185 | 0.226 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Roki Sasaki | Starter | 11 | 57.3 | 4.08 | 1.274 | 9.4 | 60 | 5.2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 92 | 5.2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tanner Scott | Middle Reliever | 31 | 26.9 | 2.68 | 0.818 | 11.7 | 35 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Hurt | Middle Reliever | 22 | 20.4 | 4.41 | 1.275 | 11.9 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever | 30 | 17.2 | 3.66 | 1.337 | 16.2 | 31 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Anthony Kay | Starter | 13 | 59.0 | 4.58 | 1.508 | 7.0 | 46 | 5.0 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 104 | 5.0 | 1 | 4 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.1 | 16.36 | 3.636 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Grant Taylor | Middle Reliever | 6 | 6.1 | 1.48 | 1.311 | 11.8 | 8 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Newcomb | Middle Reliever | 1 | 2.1 | 8.57 | 1.905 | 4.3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 |
LAD wins 6-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| PIT | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 10 |
Quality edge: 0.3986; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Liam Hicks | DH | 66 | 219 | 58 | 0.265 | 12 | 48 | 0.346 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.325 | 0.410 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 68 | 270 | 93 | 0.344 | 5 | 30 | 0.372 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.324 | 0.345 | 0.485 | OK |
| Kyle Stowers | 1B | 46 | 169 | 36 | 0.213 | 5 | 20 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.295 | 0.410 | OK |
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 69 | 253 | 77 | 0.304 | 6 | 23 | 0.388 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.356 | 0.387 | OK |
| Heriberto Hernández | LF | 40 | 119 | 27 | 0.227 | 5 | 23 | 0.285 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.312 | 0.405 | OK |
| Owen Caissie | RF | 58 | 163 | 35 | 0.215 | 6 | 33 | 0.273 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.213 | 0.271 | 0.393 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 66 | 229 | 47 | 0.205 | 3 | 17 | 0.337 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.239 | 0.361 | 0.345 | OK |
| Joe Mack | C | 29 | 90 | 22 | 0.244 | 1 | 13 | 0.284 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.252 | 0.290 | 0.360 | OK |
| Javier Sanoja | 3B | 46 | 146 | 38 | 0.260 | 2 | 24 | 0.299 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.272 | 0.373 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Spencer Horwitz | 1B | 63 | 206 | 60 | 0.291 | 9 | 30 | 0.388 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.272 | 0.359 | 0.463 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 63 | 241 | 60 | 0.249 | 16 | 45 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.225 | 0.304 | 0.460 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | DH | 69 | 245 | 65 | 0.265 | 7 | 40 | 0.389 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.344 | 0.409 | OK |
| Ryan O'Hearn | RF | 53 | 194 | 55 | 0.284 | 10 | 34 | 0.350 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.249 | 0.309 | 0.423 | OK |
| Nick Gonzales | 3B | 62 | 235 | 71 | 0.302 | 2 | 31 | 0.350 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.261 | 0.305 | 0.365 | OK |
| Tyler Callihan | LF | 6 | 13 | 5 | 0.385 | 2 | 6 | 0.579 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.154 | 0.389 | 0.626 | OK |
| Endy Rodríguez | C | 17 | 46 | 10 | 0.217 | 1 | 5 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.319 | 0.345 | OK |
| Jake Mangum | CF | 42 | 129 | 38 | 0.295 | 1 | 10 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.267 | 0.306 | 0.368 | OK |
| Jared Triolo | SS | 34 | 109 | 25 | 0.229 | 0 | 6 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.218 | 0.284 | 0.296 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Sandy Alcantara | Starter | 14 | 88.4 | 4.38 | 1.278 | 6.5 | 64 | 6.1 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 115 | 6.1 | 3 | 5 |
| Pete Fairbanks | Middle Reliever | 21 | 17.6 | 7.16 | 1.591 | 13.8 | 27 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Gusto | Middle Reliever | 4 | 9.0 | 6.00 | 1.444 | 9.0 | 9 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Anthony Bender | Middle Reliever | 29 | 23.2 | 3.49 | 1.078 | 13.2 | 34 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever | 26 | 24.3 | 3.70 | 1.276 | 11.5 | 31 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Braxton Ashcraft | Starter | 13 | 77.8 | 3.35 | 1.105 | 9.9 | 86 | 6.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 98 | 6.1 | 8 | 1 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever | 29 | 27.7 | 2.60 | 0.830 | 11.0 | 34 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dennis Santana | Middle Reliever | 29 | 25.9 | 4.52 | 1.506 | 7.6 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Sisk | Middle Reliever | 25 | 23.4 | 2.31 | 1.410 | 13.8 | 36 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
PIT wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
Quality edge: -1.9987; margin adjustment: -0.8395; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trent Grisham | CF | 63 | 220 | 51 | 0.232 | 8 | 33 | 0.340 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.367 | 0.454 | OK |
| Ben Rice | DH | 61 | 227 | 67 | 0.295 | 18 | 44 | 0.390 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.267 | 0.359 | 0.510 | OK |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 40 | 143 | 41 | 0.287 | 8 | 28 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.287 | 0.349 | 0.491 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 66 | 239 | 65 | 0.272 | 9 | 43 | 0.372 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.265 | 0.369 | 0.453 | OK |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 64 | 233 | 54 | 0.232 | 9 | 29 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.301 | 0.438 | OK |
| Spencer Jones | RF | 14 | 36 | 10 | 0.278 | 1 | 5 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.296 | 0.348 | 0.445 | OK |
| José Caballero | SS | 55 | 182 | 47 | 0.258 | 5 | 18 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.247 | 0.293 | 0.374 | OK |
| Ryan McMahon | 3B | 56 | 166 | 36 | 0.217 | 7 | 21 | 0.270 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.302 | 0.426 | OK |
| J.C. Escarra | C | 22 | 68 | 11 | 0.162 | 0 | 7 | 0.205 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.187 | 0.232 | 0.293 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| George Springer | DH | 47 | 181 | 37 | 0.204 | 5 | 14 | 0.291 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.280 | 0.314 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 68 | 263 | 80 | 0.304 | 7 | 27 | 0.325 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.265 | 0.289 | 0.451 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 66 | 241 | 68 | 0.282 | 3 | 26 | 0.368 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.307 | 0.308 | OK |
| Alejandro Kirk | C | 5 | 20 | 3 | 0.150 | 1 | 2 | 0.227 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.206 | 0.272 | 0.359 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 66 | 244 | 56 | 0.230 | 13 | 38 | 0.309 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.299 | 0.374 | OK |
| Nathan Lukes | RF | 34 | 106 | 33 | 0.311 | 1 | 12 | 0.362 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.274 | 0.308 | 0.379 | OK |
| Myles Straw | CF | 49 | 105 | 27 | 0.257 | 2 | 9 | 0.313 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.160 | 0.222 | 0.240 | OK |
| Davis Schneider | LF | 32 | 71 | 9 | 0.127 | 1 | 8 | 0.279 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.152 | 0.286 | 0.250 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 65 | 218 | 48 | 0.220 | 6 | 30 | 0.265 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.218 | 0.246 | 0.332 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Ryan Weathers | Starter | 12 | 67.9 | 3.98 | 1.193 | 10.5 | 79 | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 102 | 6.0 | 1 | 1 |
| David Bednar | Middle Reliever | 27 | 25.8 | 4.19 | 1.512 | 11.5 | 33 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Fernando Cruz | Middle Reliever | 32 | 21.4 | 2.52 | 1.589 | 15.6 | 37 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brent Headrick | Middle Reliever | 33 | 25.0 | 2.52 | 1.680 | 12.6 | 35 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Trey Yesavage | Starter | 8 | 41.5 | 3.25 | 1.205 | 9.5 | 44 | 5.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 99 | 5.2 | 6 | 3 |
| Louis Varland | Middle Reliever | 32 | 32.4 | 0.56 | 1.080 | 12.8 | 46 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Rogers | Middle Reliever | 32 | 28.2 | 2.23 | 1.135 | 5.7 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Braydon Fisher | Middle Reliever | 34 | 30.3 | 3.27 | 1.221 | 11.3 | 38 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
NYY wins 4-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| MIL | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 9 |
Quality edge: 1.8821; margin adjustment: 0.7905; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 64 | 245 | 58 | 0.237 | 23 | 41 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.325 | 0.444 | OK |
| Trea Turner | SS | 65 | 271 | 62 | 0.229 | 7 | 21 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.271 | 0.322 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | 1B | 66 | 232 | 62 | 0.267 | 15 | 38 | 0.378 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.373 | 0.472 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | LF | 62 | 220 | 72 | 0.327 | 8 | 31 | 0.363 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.276 | 0.316 | 0.485 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 3B | 64 | 235 | 53 | 0.226 | 8 | 34 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.296 | 0.408 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 2B | 61 | 209 | 48 | 0.230 | 6 | 30 | 0.286 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.251 | 0.314 | 0.395 | OK |
| Gabriel Rincones Jr. | RF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.243 | 0.307 | 0.395 | |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 44 | 150 | 30 | 0.200 | 3 | 11 | 0.280 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.175 | 0.249 | 0.264 | OK |
| Justin Crawford | CF | 60 | 186 | 41 | 0.220 | 2 | 12 | 0.282 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.216 | 0.265 | 0.319 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Christian Yelich | DH | 36 | 142 | 40 | 0.282 | 4 | 21 | 0.354 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.200 | 0.264 | 0.328 | 0.391 | OK |
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 32 | 138 | 42 | 0.304 | 6 | 20 | 0.358 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.286 | 0.339 | 0.513 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 62 | 232 | 63 | 0.272 | 10 | 42 | 0.389 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.250 | 0.358 | 0.478 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 62 | 246 | 70 | 0.285 | 6 | 42 | 0.343 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.267 | 0.324 | 0.419 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | RF | 57 | 199 | 56 | 0.281 | 12 | 43 | 0.378 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.278 | 0.389 | 0.558 | OK |
| Andrew Vaughn | 1B | 28 | 92 | 34 | 0.370 | 2 | 18 | 0.420 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.338 | 0.378 | 0.552 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 53 | 170 | 41 | 0.241 | 2 | 26 | 0.347 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.261 | 0.352 | 0.438 | OK |
| David Hamilton | 3B | 51 | 158 | 37 | 0.234 | 3 | 11 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.245 | 0.323 | 0.385 | OK |
| Joey Ortiz | SS | 47 | 135 | 27 | 0.200 | 1 | 14 | 0.295 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.213 | 0.307 | 0.293 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 33 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tanner Banks | Starter | 21 | 21.1 | 5.97 | 1.991 | 11.5 | 27 | 3.2 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 92 | 3.2 | 4 | 4 |
| Jhoan Duran | Middle Reliever | 23 | 22.2 | 1.22 | 0.901 | 13.8 | 34 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brad Keller | Middle Reliever | 30 | 27.7 | 3.57 | 1.300 | 9.7 | 30 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever | 28 | 23.1 | 2.34 | 1.299 | 11.3 | 29 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 1.1 | 3 | 0 |
| José Alvarado | Middle Reliever | 30 | 19.1 | 6.60 | 2.042 | 15.1 | 32 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob Misiorowski | Starter | 13 | 77.3 | 1.51 | 0.815 | 13.5 | 116 | 6.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 89 | 6.1 | 8 | 1 |
| Trevor Megill | Middle Reliever | 24 | 24.0 | 3.00 | 1.042 | 11.6 | 31 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Abner Uribe | Middle Reliever | 25 | 21.8 | 4.13 | 1.330 | 10.3 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever | 30 | 36.8 | 3.18 | 1.549 | 13.7 | 56 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
MIL wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | x | 5 | 10 |
Quality edge: -0.2526; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2B | 65 | 253 | 71 | 0.281 | 2 | 20 | 0.349 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.273 | 0.332 | 0.391 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 63 | 242 | 50 | 0.207 | 6 | 25 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.278 | 0.360 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 65 | 238 | 41 | 0.172 | 11 | 34 | 0.253 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.189 | 0.255 | 0.324 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 63 | 225 | 52 | 0.231 | 8 | 27 | 0.303 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.216 | 0.284 | 0.324 | OK |
| Gavin Sheets | RF | 60 | 192 | 43 | 0.224 | 10 | 27 | 0.313 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.201 | 0.279 | 0.373 | OK |
| Samad Taylor | LF | 5 | 15 | 5 | 0.333 | 0 | 5 | 0.444 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.157 | 0.283 | 0.268 | OK |
| Ty France | 1B | 42 | 129 | 34 | 0.264 | 6 | 18 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.268 | 0.366 | OK |
| Will Wagner | DH | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0.750 | 0 | 0 | 0.833 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 0.477 | 0.557 | MODERATE |
| Freddy Fermin | C | 38 | 117 | 18 | 0.154 | 3 | 11 | 0.241 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.182 | 0.249 | 0.374 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Taylor Ward | LF | 67 | 245 | 65 | 0.265 | 3 | 19 | 0.411 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.275 | 0.406 | 0.406 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 67 | 281 | 61 | 0.217 | 12 | 31 | 0.282 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.208 | 0.279 | 0.337 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | C | 48 | 181 | 50 | 0.276 | 8 | 39 | 0.348 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.276 | 0.347 | 0.484 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 68 | 262 | 65 | 0.248 | 15 | 44 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.308 | 0.462 | OK |
| Samuel Basallo | DH | 55 | 182 | 47 | 0.258 | 9 | 27 | 0.318 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.215 | 0.277 | 0.371 | OK |
| Coby Mayo | 3B | 51 | 169 | 34 | 0.201 | 9 | 26 | 0.269 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.267 | 0.415 | OK |
| Colton Cowser | CF | 53 | 135 | 31 | 0.230 | 6 | 20 | 0.307 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.231 | 0.311 | 0.422 | OK |
| Tyler O'Neill | RF | 40 | 110 | 20 | 0.182 | 2 | 8 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.225 | 0.308 | 0.336 | OK |
| Jackson Holliday | 2B | 20 | 61 | 14 | 0.230 | 3 | 10 | 0.314 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.315 | 0.409 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 34 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Griffin Canning | Starter | 7 | 31.5 | 6.57 | 1.524 | 9.4 | 33 | 4.2 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 108 | 4.2 | 4 | 3 |
| Mason Miller | Middle Reliever | 28 | 26.8 | 1.01 | 0.896 | 18.8 | 56 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jason Adam | Middle Reliever | 27 | 21.9 | 1.64 | 1.324 | 7.0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Middle Reliever | 31 | 28.5 | 5.05 | 1.298 | 12.9 | 41 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Shane Baz | Starter | 13 | 74.2 | 4.25 | 1.429 | 8.0 | 66 | 6.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 109 | 6.1 | 8 | 2 |
| Rico Garcia | Middle Reliever | 31 | 25.4 | 1.42 | 0.787 | 11.0 | 31 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Middle Reliever | 17 | 12.8 | 7.73 | 1.797 | 10.5 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever | 29 | 18.7 | 2.41 | 0.749 | 8.7 | 18 | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0.2 | 1 | 2 |
BAL wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
Quality edge: -0.2805; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Cole Young | 2B | 70 | 251 | 64 | 0.255 | 5 | 32 | 0.321 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.262 | 0.306 | 0.381 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 70 | 283 | 72 | 0.254 | 13 | 34 | 0.314 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.293 | 0.375 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 65 | 257 | 66 | 0.257 | 7 | 31 | 0.322 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.255 | 0.312 | 0.383 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 70 | 259 | 75 | 0.290 | 7 | 33 | 0.377 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.277 | 0.346 | 0.443 | OK |
| Luke Raley | RF | 62 | 181 | 45 | 0.249 | 14 | 33 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.271 | 0.445 | OK |
| Dominic Canzone | DH | 59 | 152 | 42 | 0.276 | 9 | 26 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.294 | 0.344 | 0.544 | OK |
| Miles Mastrobuoni | 3B | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0.286 | 0 | 0 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.250 | 0.260 | 0.347 | OK |
| Jhonny Pereda | C | 17 | 56 | 16 | 0.286 | 2 | 4 | 0.344 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.265 | 0.314 | 0.357 | OK |
| Colt Emerson | SS | 20 | 65 | 15 | 0.231 | 4 | 10 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.217 | 0.280 | 0.462 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | LF | 69 | 262 | 71 | 0.271 | 18 | 43 | 0.407 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.259 | 0.379 | 0.490 | OK |
| Luis García Jr. | 1B | 63 | 208 | 55 | 0.264 | 8 | 41 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.173 | 0.204 | 0.380 | OK |
| Curtis Mead | 3B | 54 | 165 | 40 | 0.242 | 10 | 29 | 0.349 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.159 | 0.254 | 0.344 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 67 | 247 | 71 | 0.287 | 14 | 51 | 0.378 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.264 | 0.334 | 0.482 | OK |
| Dylan Crews | RF | 18 | 71 | 13 | 0.183 | 2 | 7 | 0.237 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.206 | 0.232 | 0.322 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | DH | 68 | 271 | 72 | 0.266 | 8 | 35 | 0.323 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.277 | 0.338 | 0.425 | OK |
| Jacob Young | CF | 60 | 212 | 50 | 0.236 | 8 | 27 | 0.283 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.266 | 0.382 | OK |
| Jorbit Vivas | 2B | 49 | 126 | 30 | 0.238 | 1 | 9 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.297 | 0.333 | OK |
| Keibert Ruiz | C | 42 | 135 | 37 | 0.274 | 5 | 27 | 0.296 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.257 | 0.287 | 0.442 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bryce Miller | Starter | 5 | 26.3 | 1.37 | 0.798 | 9.9 | 29 | 5.1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 89 | 5.1 | 5 | 0 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Middle Reliever | 26 | 22.7 | 5.55 | 1.454 | 14.7 | 37 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| José A. Ferrer | Middle Reliever | 32 | 26.5 | 2.38 | 1.472 | 8.8 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever | 32 | 25.3 | 2.85 | 1.660 | 9.2 | 26 | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 1.1 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Zack Littell | Starter | 13 | 63.4 | 4.83 | 1.325 | 5.5 | 39 | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 87 | 5.0 | 3 | 1 |
| Clayton Beeter | Middle Reliever | 18 | 17.7 | 4.07 | 1.412 | 9.7 | 19 | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Gus Varland | Middle Reliever | 26 | 20.0 | 4.95 | 1.950 | 10.4 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Orlando Ribalta | Middle Reliever | 19 | 18.4 | 1.96 | 0.978 | 6.8 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Brad Lord | Middle Reliever | 20 | 39.5 | 2.51 | 1.139 | 8.0 | 35 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
SEA wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| MIN | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.929; margin adjustment: -0.3902; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| JJ Wetherholt | 2B | 61 | 237 | 59 | 0.249 | 9 | 26 | 0.355 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.256 | 0.329 | 0.363 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | DH | 65 | 241 | 62 | 0.257 | 7 | 27 | 0.386 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.262 | 0.358 | 0.379 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 64 | 251 | 72 | 0.287 | 11 | 47 | 0.351 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.278 | 0.338 | 0.532 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 64 | 250 | 76 | 0.304 | 16 | 49 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.293 | 0.339 | 0.525 | OK |
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 6 | 22 | 5 | 0.227 | 2 | 5 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.234 | 0.345 | 0.510 | OK |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 57 | 216 | 50 | 0.231 | 2 | 25 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.305 | 0.342 | OK |
| Jimmy Crooks | C | 7 | 22 | 4 | 0.182 | 1 | 4 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.301 | 0.414 | OK |
| Levi Jordan | 3B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.309 | 0.388 | |
| Nathan Church | CF | 44 | 158 | 40 | 0.253 | 5 | 17 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.240 | 0.268 | 0.364 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trevor Larnach | LF | 53 | 168 | 43 | 0.256 | 3 | 16 | 0.356 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.154 | 0.246 | 0.263 | OK |
| Byron Buxton | CF | 58 | 238 | 61 | 0.256 | 20 | 32 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.237 | 0.292 | 0.511 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | RF | 56 | 196 | 48 | 0.245 | 9 | 21 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.161 | 0.211 | 0.355 | OK |
| Josh Bell | DH | 67 | 245 | 56 | 0.229 | 7 | 38 | 0.285 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.276 | 0.403 | OK |
| Royce Lewis | 1B | 36 | 123 | 23 | 0.187 | 4 | 14 | 0.279 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.224 | 0.300 | 0.365 | OK |
| Victor Caratini | C | 49 | 155 | 33 | 0.213 | 3 | 23 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.262 | 0.332 | 0.396 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | 3B | 64 | 239 | 57 | 0.238 | 10 | 37 | 0.293 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.266 | 0.362 | OK |
| Tristan Gray | SS | 41 | 115 | 29 | 0.252 | 4 | 26 | 0.294 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.241 | 0.280 | 0.374 | OK |
| Luke Keaschall | 2B | 63 | 227 | 56 | 0.247 | 1 | 21 | 0.320 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.225 | 0.291 | 0.302 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kyle Leahy | Starter | 12 | 58.3 | 4.48 | 1.595 | 7.3 | 47 | 5.0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 97 | 5.0 | 7 | 5 |
| Riley O'Brien | Middle Reliever | 29 | 27.7 | 3.90 | 1.227 | 10.1 | 31 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Middle Reliever | 29 | 23.7 | 3.42 | 1.308 | 9.1 | 24 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| JoJo Romero | Middle Reliever | 31 | 24.7 | 4.37 | 1.498 | 11.3 | 31 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Joe Ryan | Starter | 14 | 75.4 | 3.10 | 1.008 | 10.0 | 84 | 6.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 102 | 6.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Yoendrys Gómez | Middle Reliever | 17 | 12.2 | 1.48 | 1.230 | 14.0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Anthony Banda | Middle Reliever | 32 | 22.0 | 6.14 | 1.636 | 11.0 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Adams | Middle Reliever | 10 | 12.4 | 7.98 | 1.694 | 11.6 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
MIN wins 5-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
Quality edge: -1.1294; margin adjustment: -0.4744; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 62 | 239 | 79 | 0.331 | 12 | 46 | 0.404 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.313 | 0.371 | 0.486 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 64 | 230 | 62 | 0.270 | 11 | 45 | 0.376 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.240 | 0.346 | 0.382 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 65 | 245 | 68 | 0.278 | 14 | 30 | 0.378 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.352 | 0.418 | OK |
| Ryan Vilade | LF | 37 | 100 | 30 | 0.300 | 3 | 22 | 0.357 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.297 | 0.357 | 0.457 | OK |
| Austin Slater | RF | 3 | 12 | 3 | 0.250 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.289 | 0.348 | OK |
| Ben Williamson | 2B | 46 | 141 | 36 | 0.255 | 0 | 17 | 0.331 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.307 | 0.333 | OK |
| Chandler Simpson | CF | 60 | 236 | 64 | 0.271 | 0 | 12 | 0.304 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.139 | 0.179 | 0.198 | OK |
| Nick Fortes | C | 51 | 156 | 42 | 0.269 | 1 | 14 | 0.311 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.275 | 0.293 | 0.391 | OK |
| Taylor Walls | SS | 46 | 146 | 31 | 0.212 | 0 | 15 | 0.314 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.214 | 0.303 | 0.301 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | SS | 66 | 258 | 59 | 0.229 | 13 | 32 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.303 | 0.449 | OK |
| Mike Trout | CF | 68 | 241 | 54 | 0.224 | 15 | 32 | 0.391 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.202 | 0.347 | 0.385 | OK |
| Jo Adell | RF | 69 | 267 | 64 | 0.240 | 10 | 39 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.241 | 0.264 | 0.381 | OK |
| Oswald Peraza | 2B | 59 | 195 | 52 | 0.267 | 7 | 21 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.239 | 0.266 | 0.387 | OK |
| Trey Mancini | 1B | 3 | 9 | 3 | 0.333 | 0 | 2 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.261 | 0.272 | 0.354 | OK |
| Denzer Guzman | 3B | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.190 | 0.199 | 0.270 | |
| Nick Madrigal | DH | 10 | 30 | 10 | 0.333 | 0 | 1 | 0.412 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.342 | 0.348 | OK |
| Logan O'Hoppe | C | 43 | 137 | 29 | 0.212 | 3 | 16 | 0.292 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.221 | 0.280 | 0.372 | OK |
| Jose Siri | LF | 16 | 40 | 13 | 0.325 | 2 | 10 | 0.357 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.289 | 0.415 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Shane McClanahan | Starter | 12 | 58.6 | 2.92 | 1.126 | 9.1 | 59 | 5.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 90 | 5.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Bryan Baker | Middle Reliever | 29 | 26.4 | 2.05 | 1.023 | 10.2 | 30 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kelly | Middle Reliever | 29 | 25.0 | 2.88 | 1.000 | 7.9 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | Middle Reliever | 17 | 14.4 | 5.00 | 1.528 | 13.1 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Sam Aldegheri | Starter | 4 | 11.3 | 2.39 | 1.416 | 6.4 | 8 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 62 | 3.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Kirby Yates | Middle Reliever | 12 | 10.4 | 4.33 | 1.250 | 13.0 | 15 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sam Bachman | Middle Reliever | 25 | 27.7 | 2.27 | 1.227 | 11.0 | 34 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever | 29 | 19.0 | 2.37 | 1.737 | 11.4 | 24 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
TB wins 2-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | x | 3 | 6 |
Quality edge: -0.5838; margin adjustment: -0.2452; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Joc Pederson | DH | 62 | 170 | 40 | 0.235 | 8 | 23 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.148 | 0.255 | 0.300 | OK |
| Josh Jung | 3B | 63 | 243 | 75 | 0.309 | 8 | 30 | 0.363 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.276 | 0.326 | 0.424 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 66 | 255 | 66 | 0.259 | 7 | 23 | 0.334 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.262 | 0.321 | 0.401 | OK |
| Wyatt Langford | LF | 26 | 103 | 22 | 0.214 | 2 | 5 | 0.257 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.219 | 0.265 | 0.372 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | SS | 58 | 196 | 58 | 0.296 | 4 | 35 | 0.349 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.198 | 0.253 | 0.335 | OK |
| Evan Carter | CF | 64 | 191 | 34 | 0.178 | 6 | 21 | 0.288 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.144 | 0.246 | 0.240 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 66 | 244 | 61 | 0.250 | 11 | 41 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.283 | 0.349 | 0.462 | OK |
| Kyle Higashioka | C | 34 | 108 | 25 | 0.231 | 4 | 11 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.148 | 0.242 | 0.256 | OK |
| Nicky Lopez | 2B | 11 | 34 | 10 | 0.294 | 1 | 5 | 0.351 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.150 | 0.196 | 0.233 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Mickey Gasper | DH | 24 | 77 | 21 | 0.273 | 0 | 5 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.224 | 0.270 | 0.327 | OK |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | CF | 61 | 225 | 63 | 0.280 | 6 | 27 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.238 | 0.280 | 0.388 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 65 | 253 | 69 | 0.273 | 7 | 29 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.282 | 0.354 | OK |
| Willson Contreras | 1B | 62 | 225 | 64 | 0.284 | 13 | 39 | 0.379 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.239 | 0.306 | 0.444 | OK |
| Jarren Duran | LF | 61 | 248 | 52 | 0.210 | 10 | 34 | 0.269 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.198 | 0.246 | 0.342 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 58 | 191 | 39 | 0.204 | 3 | 25 | 0.264 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.278 | 0.424 | OK |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 2B | 35 | 98 | 26 | 0.265 | 1 | 12 | 0.333 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.286 | 0.311 | OK |
| Marcelo Mayer | SS | 57 | 170 | 38 | 0.224 | 3 | 17 | 0.282 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.138 | 0.189 | 0.246 | OK |
| Connor Wong | C | 24 | 72 | 19 | 0.264 | 0 | 10 | 0.338 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.148 | 0.213 | 0.274 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 31 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0.200 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jack Leiter | Starter | 13 | 68.2 | 4.88 | 1.422 | 10.0 | 76 | 5.2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 95 | 5.2 | 3 | 0 |
| Jacob Latz | Middle Reliever | 24 | 30.6 | 0.88 | 0.523 | 9.7 | 33 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jakob Junis | Middle Reliever | 24 | 27.5 | 1.64 | 0.764 | 6.5 | 20 | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Sonny Gray | Starter | 11 | 55.4 | 3.25 | 1.264 | 7.1 | 44 | 5.2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 80 | 5.2 | 5 | 0 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Middle Reliever | 20 | 19.2 | 0.47 | 0.938 | 12.2 | 26 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever | 21 | 20.2 | 3.12 | 1.139 | 11.6 | 26 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Slaten | Middle Reliever | 14 | 10.0 | 9.00 | 2.000 | 14.4 | 16 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
BOS wins 3-2