| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ MIA | 2 - 3 | 2 - 4 | MIA | MIA | MIA wins 4-2 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| ATL @ CHW | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 3-2 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| BOS @ TB | 2 - 3 | 1 - 5 | TB | TB | TB wins 5-1 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| CHC @ COL | 6 - 4 | 6 - 3 | CHC | CHC | CHC wins 6-3 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| CIN @ SD | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 | CIN | CIN | CIN wins 3-2 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| HOU @ LAA | 1 - 2 | 2 - 4 | LAA | LAA | LAA wins 4-2 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| LAD @ PIT | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | PIT | PIT | PIT wins 4-3 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| MIL @ OAK | 4 - 3 | 6 - 1 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 6-1 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| MIN @ DET | 3 - 4 | 4 - 5 | DET | DET | DET wins 5-4 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| NYY @ CLE | 4 - 1 | 5 - 2 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 5-2 | 66% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| PHI @ TOR | 1 - 2 | 2 - 3 | TOR | TOR | TOR wins 3-2 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| SEA @ BAL | 5 - 3 | 6 - 2 | SEA | SEA | SEA wins 6-2 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| STL @ NYM | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 | NYM | NYM | NYM wins 2-1 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| TEX @ KC | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 | TEX | TEX | TEX wins 2-1 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| WAS @ SF | 5 - 3 | 5 - 4 | WAS | WAS | WAS wins 5-4 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | x | 4 | 10 |
Quality edge: -0.2293; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 232 | 982 | 267 | 0.272 | 42 | 151 | 0.318 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.199 | 0.252 | 0.379 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 232 | 859 | 255 | 0.297 | 35 | 131 | 0.395 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.261 | 0.349 | 0.558 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | C | 132 | 476 | 124 | 0.261 | 14 | 76 | 0.327 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.251 | 0.327 | 0.419 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 203 | 703 | 192 | 0.273 | 30 | 118 | 0.356 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.227 | 0.297 | 0.377 | OK |
| Pavin Smith | DH | 15 | 36 | 6 | 0.167 | 0 | 6 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.367 | 0.297 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 227 | 799 | 182 | 0.228 | 10 | 81 | 0.341 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.349 | 0.368 | OK |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | CF | 77 | 271 | 73 | 0.269 | 0 | 29 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.184 | 0.245 | 0.299 | OK |
| LuJames Groover | 1B | 3 | 10 | 2 | 0.200 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.238 | 0.318 | OK |
| Tommy Troy | LF | 23 | 71 | 24 | 0.338 | 1 | 1 | 0.427 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.243 | 0.340 | 0.409 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Liam Hicks | DH | 212 | 754 | 210 | 0.279 | 48 | 200 | 0.356 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.241 | 0.340 | 0.385 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 241 | 971 | 337 | 0.347 | 20 | 110 | 0.377 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.315 | 0.337 | 0.485 | OK |
| Kyle Stowers | LF | 148 | 559 | 116 | 0.208 | 13 | 46 | 0.297 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.209 | 0.281 | 0.348 | OK |
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 247 | 937 | 298 | 0.318 | 26 | 85 | 0.404 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.267 | 0.358 | 0.397 | OK |
| Leo Jiménez | 3B | 54 | 172 | 43 | 0.250 | 0 | 4 | 0.314 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.174 | 0.236 | 0.224 | OK |
| Owen Caissie | RF | 156 | 487 | 112 | 0.230 | 12 | 97 | 0.286 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.196 | 0.283 | 0.329 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 245 | 899 | 175 | 0.195 | 13 | 64 | 0.329 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.214 | 0.351 | 0.301 | OK |
| Joe Mack | C | 69 | 226 | 48 | 0.212 | 1 | 31 | 0.258 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.260 | 0.334 | OK |
| Connor Norby | 1B | 190 | 640 | 141 | 0.220 | 18 | 63 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.185 | 0.266 | 0.302 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 34 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Zac Gallen | Starter | 13 | 62.7 | 5.45 | 1.563 | 6.2 | 43 | 5.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 109 | 5.0 | 3 | 4 |
| Paul Sewald | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Ginkel | Middle Reliever | 1 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 2.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever | 2 | 2.1 | 0.00 | 0.476 | 8.6 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Max Meyer | Starter | 13 | 72.5 | 2.86 | 1.062 | 10.1 | 81 | 6.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 117 | 6.0 | 6 | 1 |
| Pete Fairbanks | Middle Reliever | 19 | 15.6 | 8.08 | 1.667 | 13.3 | 23 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Anthony Bender | Middle Reliever | 27 | 22.0 | 3.68 | 1.045 | 11.9 | 29 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever | 24 | 22.3 | 4.04 | 1.256 | 11.7 | 29 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
MIA wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| CHW | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
Quality edge: -1.8726; margin adjustment: -0.7865; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | 199 | 757 | 180 | 0.238 | 19 | 81 | 0.360 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.376 | 0.461 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 206 | 804 | 241 | 0.300 | 53 | 140 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.303 | 0.334 | 0.505 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 256 | 1002 | 272 | 0.271 | 70 | 202 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.282 | 0.344 | 0.502 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 252 | 983 | 273 | 0.278 | 40 | 137 | 0.337 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.271 | 0.332 | 0.476 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | SS | 223 | 854 | 218 | 0.255 | 15 | 127 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.280 | 0.334 | 0.525 | OK |
| Dominic Smith | DH | 125 | 420 | 140 | 0.333 | 17 | 84 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.259 | 0.303 | 0.421 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 243 | 920 | 201 | 0.218 | 31 | 132 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.282 | 0.346 | OK |
| Mike Yastrzemski | LF | 161 | 515 | 113 | 0.219 | 9 | 45 | 0.304 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.198 | 0.297 | 0.296 | OK |
| Austin Wynns | C | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.108 | 0.175 | 0.143 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 157 | 556 | 146 | 0.263 | 5 | 61 | 0.375 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.258 | 0.312 | 0.362 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 247 | 916 | 213 | 0.233 | 58 | 151 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.234 | 0.355 | 0.421 | OK |
| Andrew Benintendi | DH | 180 | 663 | 166 | 0.250 | 17 | 106 | 0.293 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.308 | 0.430 | OK |
| Jacob Gonzalez | 1B | 7 | 20 | 6 | 0.300 | 1 | 4 | 0.391 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.354 | 0.408 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 237 | 917 | 243 | 0.265 | 24 | 89 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.327 | 0.360 | OK |
| Braden Nett | RF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.244 | 0.313 | 0.397 | |
| Tristan Peters | CF | 157 | 482 | 143 | 0.297 | 8 | 54 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.302 | 0.398 | OK |
| Luisangel Acuña | SS | 112 | 347 | 60 | 0.173 | 0 | 22 | 0.238 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.175 | 0.234 | 0.210 | OK |
| Drew Romo | C | 67 | 221 | 39 | 0.176 | 18 | 38 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.122 | 0.213 | 0.289 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0.133 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Grant Holmes | Starter | 12 | 61.6 | 3.94 | 1.347 | 8.3 | 57 | 5.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 93 | 5.1 | 5 | 1 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Middle Reliever | 20 | 20.2 | 0.89 | 0.990 | 10.7 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Robert Suarez | Middle Reliever | 28 | 27.5 | 0.65 | 0.873 | 8.2 | 25 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Middle Reliever | 31 | 28.1 | 1.28 | 0.676 | 12.2 | 38 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Kinley | Middle Reliever | 31 | 26.0 | 3.46 | 1.308 | 10.7 | 31 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Brandon Eisert | Starter | 12 | 11.5 | 3.91 | 1.391 | 10.2 | 13 | 3.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 49 | 3.0 | 5 | 1 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.1 | 16.36 | 3.636 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Grant Taylor | Middle Reliever | 6 | 6.1 | 1.48 | 1.311 | 11.8 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 2.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever | 24 | 20.9 | 1.72 | 1.483 | 9.9 | 23 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sean Newcomb | Middle Reliever | 1 | 2.1 | 8.57 | 1.905 | 4.3 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
ATL wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | x | 5 | 5 |
Quality edge: 0.5867; margin adjustment: 0.2464; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jarren Duran | LF | 229 | 955 | 204 | 0.214 | 38 | 136 | 0.284 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.187 | 0.237 | 0.324 | OK |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | CF | 207 | 788 | 224 | 0.284 | 18 | 90 | 0.349 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.274 | 0.316 | 0.398 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 239 | 942 | 264 | 0.280 | 27 | 105 | 0.346 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.311 | 0.395 | OK |
| Willson Contreras | 1B | 228 | 841 | 239 | 0.284 | 51 | 163 | 0.380 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.297 | 0.368 | 0.550 | OK |
| Masataka Yoshida | DH | 117 | 389 | 100 | 0.257 | 4 | 29 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.175 | 0.257 | 0.266 | OK |
| Mickey Gasper | C | 54 | 194 | 64 | 0.330 | 0 | 12 | 0.373 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.300 | 0.346 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 177 | 609 | 116 | 0.190 | 5 | 75 | 0.266 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.214 | 0.264 | 0.324 | OK |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 2B | 77 | 230 | 71 | 0.309 | 4 | 36 | 0.391 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.292 | 0.284 | OK |
| Marcelo Mayer | SS | 168 | 557 | 120 | 0.215 | 8 | 48 | 0.275 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.159 | 0.207 | 0.261 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 228 | 894 | 286 | 0.320 | 34 | 162 | 0.398 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.322 | 0.376 | 0.523 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 242 | 951 | 255 | 0.268 | 58 | 130 | 0.367 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.271 | 0.377 | 0.447 | OK |
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 228 | 943 | 267 | 0.283 | 0 | 44 | 0.319 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.178 | 0.220 | 0.225 | OK |
| Ryan Vilade | 1B | 84 | 251 | 85 | 0.339 | 8 | 62 | 0.400 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.286 | 0.355 | 0.477 | OK |
| Austin Slater | RF | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.333 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.223 | 0.292 | 0.290 | OK |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 191 | 706 | 133 | 0.188 | 15 | 75 | 0.267 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.193 | 0.284 | 0.363 | OK |
| Ben Williamson | SS | 135 | 451 | 122 | 0.271 | 0 | 57 | 0.354 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.225 | 0.309 | 0.304 | OK |
| Nick Fortes | C | 141 | 463 | 114 | 0.246 | 4 | 38 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.209 | 0.231 | 0.290 | OK |
| Richie Palacios | 2B | 124 | 387 | 104 | 0.269 | 4 | 60 | 0.377 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.161 | 0.265 | 0.246 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 29 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 0.172 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Payton Tolle | Starter | 8 | 46.4 | 2.33 | 0.991 | 9.9 | 51 | 6.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 98 | 6.0 | 7 | 2 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Middle Reliever | 20 | 19.2 | 0.47 | 0.938 | 12.2 | 26 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Justin Slaten | Middle Reliever | 13 | 9.8 | 7.35 | 1.735 | 14.7 | 16 | 0.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 0.1 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Nick Martinez | Starter | 12 | 69.5 | 2.33 | 1.209 | 5.4 | 42 | 6.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 89 | 6.0 | 4 | 1 |
| Bryan Baker | Middle Reliever | 28 | 25.4 | 2.13 | 1.063 | 10.6 | 30 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ian Seymour | Middle Reliever | 26 | 30.8 | 4.09 | 1.266 | 11.1 | 38 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kelly | Middle Reliever | 28 | 24.0 | 3.00 | 1.042 | 8.2 | 22 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
TB wins 5-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
Quality edge: -1.7727; margin adjustment: -0.7445; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 242 | 893 | 222 | 0.249 | 31 | 115 | 0.340 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.306 | 0.363 | 0.578 | OK |
| Moisés Ballesteros | DH | 146 | 450 | 95 | 0.211 | 23 | 74 | 0.288 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.243 | 0.316 | 0.372 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 256 | 945 | 226 | 0.239 | 30 | 158 | 0.382 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.262 | 0.379 | 0.410 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 263 | 1086 | 280 | 0.258 | 18 | 83 | 0.346 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.215 | 0.300 | 0.311 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 247 | 965 | 232 | 0.240 | 65 | 154 | 0.359 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.354 | 0.563 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 190 | 732 | 188 | 0.257 | 34 | 90 | 0.348 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.281 | 0.365 | 0.496 | OK |
| Nico Hoerner | 2B | 263 | 1105 | 283 | 0.256 | 21 | 162 | 0.341 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.232 | 0.310 | 0.324 | OK |
| Miguel Amaya | C | 93 | 305 | 67 | 0.220 | 12 | 34 | 0.324 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.193 | 0.282 | 0.305 | OK |
| Dansby Swanson | SS | 220 | 763 | 152 | 0.199 | 33 | 118 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.182 | 0.285 | 0.309 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 43 | 36 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jake McCarthy | LF | 146 | 496 | 128 | 0.258 | 10 | 69 | 0.296 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.257 | 0.289 | 0.410 | OK |
| Willi Castro | 2B | 178 | 651 | 169 | 0.260 | 9 | 75 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.247 | 0.326 | 0.379 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 221 | 831 | 230 | 0.277 | 30 | 117 | 0.355 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.306 | 0.357 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | C | 219 | 867 | 213 | 0.246 | 59 | 98 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.321 | 0.573 | OK |
| Troy Johnston | RF | 191 | 692 | 227 | 0.328 | 10 | 97 | 0.389 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.296 | 0.355 | 0.427 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 210 | 796 | 174 | 0.219 | 10 | 83 | 0.265 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.191 | 0.240 | 0.322 | OK |
| Kyle Karros | 3B | 188 | 580 | 132 | 0.228 | 9 | 55 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.247 | 0.355 | 0.383 | OK |
| Edouard Julien | DH | 157 | 539 | 121 | 0.224 | 10 | 61 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.233 | 0.330 | 0.319 | OK |
| Tyler Freeman | RF | 142 | 522 | 130 | 0.249 | 11 | 60 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.210 | 0.259 | 0.314 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Colin Rea | Starter | 13 | 62.1 | 4.78 | 1.401 | 7.5 | 52 | 5.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 89 | 5.1 | 3 | 1 |
| Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever | 17 | 14.5 | 2.48 | 1.310 | 9.9 | 16 | 1.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 1.2 | 2 | 2 |
| Jacob Webb | Middle Reliever | 28 | 25.3 | 2.49 | 1.423 | 12.1 | 34 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb Thielbar | Middle Reliever | 17 | 12.2 | 4.43 | 1.557 | 12.5 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Starter | 12 | 61.0 | 4.13 | 1.311 | 5.3 | 36 | 5.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 108 | 5.1 | 1 | 3 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever | 18 | 31.9 | 2.26 | 1.097 | 8.5 | 30 | 1.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 27 | 24.9 | 7.59 | 2.129 | 11.9 | 33 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever | 26 | 16.5 | 7.09 | 2.242 | 13.1 | 24 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Brennan Bernardino | Middle Reliever | 30 | 18.8 | 6.22 | 1.809 | 9.1 | 19 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
CHC wins 6-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
Quality edge: 0.5625; margin adjustment: 0.2362; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Blake Dunn | CF | 62 | 269 | 84 | 0.312 | 6 | 17 | 0.371 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.261 | 0.314 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 122 | 470 | 129 | 0.274 | 34 | 105 | 0.366 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.323 | 0.474 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 3B | 248 | 927 | 229 | 0.247 | 49 | 163 | 0.356 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.232 | 0.330 | 0.386 | OK |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 1B | 138 | 460 | 131 | 0.285 | 36 | 93 | 0.375 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.184 | 0.271 | 0.346 | OK |
| Spencer Steer | RF | 217 | 795 | 210 | 0.264 | 32 | 90 | 0.340 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.225 | 0.322 | 0.396 | OK |
| Eugenio Suárez | DH | 127 | 466 | 106 | 0.227 | 11 | 54 | 0.303 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.177 | 0.253 | 0.279 | OK |
| Matt McLain | SS | 221 | 851 | 183 | 0.215 | 25 | 95 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.247 | 0.332 | 0.501 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | 166 | 548 | 108 | 0.197 | 18 | 75 | 0.303 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.222 | 0.322 | 0.380 | OK |
| Edwin Arroyo | 2B | 6 | 17 | 4 | 0.235 | 0 | 1 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.212 | 0.292 | 0.292 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 37 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2B | 237 | 914 | 241 | 0.264 | 1 | 71 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.321 | 0.331 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 226 | 881 | 179 | 0.203 | 19 | 92 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.267 | 0.341 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 227 | 823 | 142 | 0.173 | 41 | 124 | 0.263 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.173 | 0.246 | 0.335 | OK |
| Gavin Sheets | 1B | 178 | 604 | 148 | 0.245 | 33 | 88 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.293 | 0.378 | OK |
| Will Wagner | DH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.325 | 0.445 | |
| Samad Taylor | LF | 3 | 8 | 3 | 0.375 | 0 | 3 | 0.500 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.160 | 0.307 | 0.226 | OK |
| Bryce Johnson | RF | 39 | 106 | 18 | 0.170 | 0 | 6 | 0.254 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.129 | 0.207 | 0.212 | OK |
| Freddy Fermin | C | 113 | 358 | 53 | 0.148 | 3 | 20 | 0.248 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.194 | 0.263 | 0.418 | OK |
| Sung-Mun Song | SS | 29 | 73 | 15 | 0.205 | 0 | 14 | 0.318 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.137 | 0.258 | 0.216 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Chase Burns | Starter | 12 | 69.4 | 2.07 | 0.965 | 10.5 | 81 | 6.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 92 | 6.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Tony Santillan | Middle Reliever | 27 | 22.7 | 5.15 | 1.498 | 9.1 | 23 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Burke | Middle Reliever | 32 | 25.2 | 3.93 | 1.667 | 10.4 | 29 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Moll | Middle Reliever | 29 | 22.2 | 3.65 | 1.306 | 11.8 | 29 | 1.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.1 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Lucas Giolito | Starter | 4 | 16.2 | 5.00 | 1.790 | 6.1 | 11 | 4.1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 85 | 4.1 | 4 | 2 |
| Mason Miller | Middle Reliever | 27 | 25.8 | 1.05 | 0.930 | 18.8 | 54 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Adam | Middle Reliever | 26 | 20.9 | 1.72 | 1.292 | 6.9 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Middle Reliever | 30 | 27.4 | 5.26 | 1.314 | 12.5 | 38 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ron Marinaccio | Middle Reliever | 22 | 32.0 | 4.22 | 1.312 | 8.4 | 30 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
CIN wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| LAA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | x | 4 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.4434; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeremy Peña | SS | 97 | 400 | 104 | 0.260 | 10 | 32 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.326 | 0.389 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 255 | 943 | 312 | 0.331 | 100 | 193 | 0.447 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.303 | 0.423 | 0.596 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 240 | 914 | 251 | 0.275 | 67 | 189 | 0.349 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.268 | 0.330 | 0.483 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 220 | 821 | 198 | 0.241 | 29 | 112 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.324 | 0.480 | OK |
| Jose Altuve | 2B | 190 | 750 | 190 | 0.253 | 22 | 62 | 0.334 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.237 | 0.309 | 0.444 | OK |
| Cam Smith | RF | 222 | 779 | 172 | 0.221 | 20 | 92 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.321 | 0.400 | OK |
| Joey Loperfido | LF | 65 | 226 | 64 | 0.283 | 0 | 28 | 0.359 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.314 | 0.363 | OK |
| Jake Meyers | CF | 75 | 279 | 61 | 0.219 | 9 | 26 | 0.291 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.204 | 0.273 | 0.304 | OK |
| Christian Vázquez | C | 125 | 414 | 111 | 0.268 | 16 | 68 | 0.325 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.289 | 0.368 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | SS | 264 | 1043 | 250 | 0.240 | 48 | 131 | 0.350 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.229 | 0.317 | 0.484 | OK |
| Mike Trout | CF | 260 | 921 | 227 | 0.246 | 63 | 148 | 0.416 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.186 | 0.344 | 0.362 | OK |
| Wade Meckler | LF | 28 | 96 | 31 | 0.323 | 5 | 19 | 0.369 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.283 | 0.332 | 0.439 | OK |
| Jo Adell | DH | 244 | 960 | 234 | 0.244 | 34 | 136 | 0.291 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.249 | 0.266 | 0.394 | OK |
| Nolan Schanuel | 1B | 206 | 827 | 217 | 0.262 | 18 | 110 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.246 | 0.293 | 0.376 | OK |
| Oswald Peraza | 2B | 167 | 579 | 162 | 0.280 | 27 | 66 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.243 | 0.274 | 0.408 | OK |
| Denzer Guzman | 3B | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.201 | 0.210 | 0.289 | |
| Jose Siri | RF | 19 | 44 | 14 | 0.318 | 2 | 9 | 0.333 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.275 | 0.457 | OK |
| Sebastián Rivero | C | 44 | 129 | 22 | 0.171 | 0 | 11 | 0.213 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.162 | 0.207 | 0.214 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 31 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kai-Wei Teng | Starter | 19 | 44.2 | 3.26 | 1.244 | 9.0 | 44 | 5.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 94 | 5.2 | 6 | 3 |
| Josh Hader | Middle Reliever | 3 | 3.0 | 0.00 | 0.333 | 21.0 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Bryan King | Middle Reliever | 25 | 24.6 | 2.93 | 1.504 | 7.7 | 21 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Walbert Urena | Starter | 11 | 49.4 | 2.73 | 1.356 | 8.7 | 48 | 5.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 92 | 5.2 | 6 | 2 |
| Kirby Yates | Middle Reliever | 11 | 9.4 | 4.79 | 1.383 | 12.4 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Sam Bachman | Middle Reliever | 24 | 26.7 | 2.36 | 1.199 | 11.1 | 33 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever | 28 | 18.0 | 2.00 | 1.778 | 11.5 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Middle Reliever | 23 | 18.0 | 6.00 | 1.944 | 8.0 | 16 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
LAA wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| PIT | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 6 |
Quality edge: -1.7424; margin adjustment: -0.7318; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shohei Ohtani | DH | 246 | 952 | 270 | 0.284 | 42 | 156 | 0.409 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.330 | 0.433 | 0.569 | OK |
| Andy Pages | CF | 235 | 900 | 279 | 0.310 | 59 | 224 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.263 | 0.308 | 0.490 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 237 | 895 | 244 | 0.273 | 33 | 128 | 0.370 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.292 | 0.368 | 0.488 | OK |
| Mookie Betts | SS | 100 | 424 | 76 | 0.179 | 29 | 73 | 0.228 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.188 | 0.248 | 0.319 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 201 | 712 | 187 | 0.263 | 54 | 83 | 0.361 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.287 | 0.358 | 0.494 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 236 | 909 | 229 | 0.252 | 22 | 123 | 0.345 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.238 | 0.326 | 0.401 | OK |
| Ryan Ward | LF | 6 | 26 | 10 | 0.385 | 0 | 5 | 0.385 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.240 | 0.252 | 0.318 | OK |
| Dalton Rushing | C | 98 | 334 | 97 | 0.290 | 32 | 72 | 0.370 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.296 | 0.352 | 0.537 | OK |
| Alex Freeland | 2B | 124 | 399 | 97 | 0.243 | 9 | 38 | 0.322 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.315 | 0.339 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nick Gonzales | 3B | 207 | 832 | 257 | 0.309 | 2 | 103 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.283 | 0.321 | 0.405 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 229 | 905 | 243 | 0.269 | 66 | 183 | 0.359 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.219 | 0.302 | 0.434 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | 248 | 902 | 250 | 0.277 | 23 | 156 | 0.403 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.356 | 0.387 | OK |
| Ryan O'Hearn | RF | 188 | 727 | 211 | 0.290 | 31 | 134 | 0.365 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.309 | 0.411 | OK |
| Marcell Ozuna | DH | 195 | 783 | 150 | 0.192 | 25 | 103 | 0.280 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.209 | 0.280 | 0.306 | OK |
| Davis Wendzel | 1B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.083 | 0.179 | 0.186 | |
| Jake Mangum | CF | 109 | 389 | 105 | 0.270 | 1 | 14 | 0.328 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.310 | 0.335 | OK |
| Jared Triolo | SS | 83 | 292 | 64 | 0.219 | 0 | 11 | 0.276 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.190 | 0.253 | 0.245 | OK |
| Henry Davis | C | 130 | 438 | 63 | 0.144 | 16 | 47 | 0.239 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.148 | 0.229 | 0.293 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 30 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0.200 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Eric Lauer | Starter | 2 | 10.2 | 2.65 | 1.078 | 4.4 | 5 | 4.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 77 | 4.2 | 4 | 3 |
| Tanner Scott | Middle Reliever | 29 | 24.8 | 2.54 | 0.806 | 11.2 | 31 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Kyle Hurt | Middle Reliever | 21 | 20.3 | 2.66 | 1.034 | 12.0 | 27 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever | 28 | 17.0 | 3.71 | 1.353 | 15.9 | 30 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Paul Skenes | Starter | 13 | 68.6 | 3.15 | 0.933 | 10.8 | 82 | 6.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 102 | 6.0 | 7 | 3 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever | 28 | 26.7 | 2.02 | 0.787 | 11.5 | 34 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dennis Santana | Middle Reliever | 27 | 23.8 | 4.92 | 1.513 | 7.9 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mason Montgomery | Middle Reliever | 25 | 21.0 | 4.71 | 1.619 | 14.6 | 34 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
PIT wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
Quality edge: -2.5652; margin adjustment: -1.0774; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Christian Yelich | DH | 107 | 421 | 123 | 0.292 | 15 | 63 | 0.356 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.280 | 0.340 | 0.430 | OK |
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 99 | 429 | 124 | 0.289 | 7 | 35 | 0.336 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.309 | 0.361 | 0.522 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 237 | 889 | 256 | 0.288 | 37 | 161 | 0.407 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.293 | 0.400 | 0.556 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 227 | 920 | 274 | 0.298 | 19 | 162 | 0.367 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.288 | 0.347 | 0.444 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | 1B | 189 | 708 | 204 | 0.288 | 38 | 140 | 0.365 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.310 | 0.423 | 0.620 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 174 | 606 | 147 | 0.243 | 7 | 109 | 0.352 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.339 | 0.398 | OK |
| Sal Frelick | RF | 195 | 703 | 157 | 0.223 | 14 | 71 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.232 | 0.310 | 0.324 | OK |
| Luis Rengifo | 3B | 174 | 629 | 135 | 0.215 | 0 | 66 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.157 | 0.249 | 0.228 | OK |
| David Hamilton | SS | 151 | 485 | 116 | 0.239 | 3 | 34 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.256 | 0.341 | 0.413 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 36 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Colby Thomas | RF | 45 | 121 | 37 | 0.306 | 3 | 15 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.287 | 0.406 | OK |
| Nick Kurtz | 1B | 258 | 938 | 267 | 0.285 | 44 | 182 | 0.438 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.401 | 0.549 | OK |
| Shea Langeliers | DH | 238 | 992 | 301 | 0.303 | 63 | 137 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.256 | 0.306 | 0.504 | OK |
| Tyler Soderstrom | LF | 232 | 892 | 197 | 0.221 | 30 | 118 | 0.311 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.258 | 0.372 | 0.553 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 107 | 397 | 97 | 0.244 | 8 | 32 | 0.303 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.202 | 0.258 | 0.342 | OK |
| Jonah Heim | C | 34 | 120 | 22 | 0.183 | 3 | 5 | 0.240 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.212 | 0.280 | 0.502 | OK |
| Henry Bolte | CF | 54 | 193 | 59 | 0.306 | 0 | 17 | 0.364 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.316 | 0.350 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | 2B | 144 | 537 | 139 | 0.259 | 27 | 74 | 0.311 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 0.252 | 0.355 | OK |
| Alika Williams | SS | 12 | 38 | 7 | 0.184 | 0 | 6 | 0.205 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.107 | 0.138 | 0.173 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Robert Gasser | Starter | 3 | 13.1 | 4.81 | 1.450 | 8.2 | 12 | 4.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 84 | 4.1 | 5 | 1 |
| Trevor Megill | Middle Reliever | 23 | 23.0 | 3.13 | 1.043 | 11.3 | 29 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Abner Uribe | Middle Reliever | 25 | 21.8 | 4.13 | 1.330 | 10.3 | 25 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever | 29 | 35.8 | 3.27 | 1.536 | 14.1 | 56 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| J.T. Ginn | Starter | 14 | 63.8 | 2.82 | 1.113 | 8.5 | 60 | 6.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 106 | 6.0 | 5 | 3 |
| Hogan Harris | Middle Reliever | 34 | 24.9 | 3.61 | 1.928 | 13.4 | 37 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | Middle Reliever | 30 | 24.4 | 5.90 | 1.598 | 11.1 | 30 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Scott Barlow | Middle Reliever | 29 | 24.8 | 3.63 | 1.210 | 8.7 | 24 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
MIL wins 6-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| DET | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | x | 5 | 6 |
Quality edge: -0.0336; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Byron Buxton | CF | 225 | 959 | 257 | 0.268 | 84 | 136 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.300 | 0.488 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | 3B | 217 | 826 | 203 | 0.246 | 27 | 127 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.237 | 0.361 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | RF | 176 | 643 | 150 | 0.233 | 24 | 72 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.209 | 0.262 | 0.433 | OK |
| Josh Bell | DH | 226 | 854 | 190 | 0.222 | 22 | 132 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.273 | 0.377 | OK |
| Trevor Larnach | LF | 164 | 569 | 155 | 0.272 | 9 | 57 | 0.376 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.193 | 0.296 | 0.319 | OK |
| Victor Caratini | C | 156 | 521 | 100 | 0.192 | 6 | 77 | 0.289 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.331 | 0.389 | OK |
| Royce Lewis | 1B | 121 | 410 | 68 | 0.166 | 12 | 53 | 0.263 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.172 | 0.250 | 0.267 | OK |
| Luke Keaschall | 2B | 219 | 811 | 196 | 0.242 | 5 | 84 | 0.322 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.216 | 0.284 | 0.285 | OK |
| Tristan Gray | SS | 104 | 334 | 79 | 0.237 | 14 | 70 | 0.281 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.271 | 0.303 | 0.411 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 33 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Gleyber Torres | 2B | 150 | 554 | 143 | 0.258 | 11 | 54 | 0.390 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 0.376 | 0.383 | OK |
| Kevin McGonigle | 3B | 247 | 947 | 284 | 0.300 | 15 | 110 | 0.399 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.283 | 0.374 | 0.445 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | C | 213 | 792 | 193 | 0.244 | 52 | 158 | 0.332 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.301 | 0.467 | OK |
| Kerry Carpenter | RF | 123 | 391 | 87 | 0.223 | 24 | 69 | 0.300 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.309 | 0.513 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 243 | 887 | 274 | 0.309 | 19 | 115 | 0.405 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.283 | 0.372 | 0.443 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 224 | 779 | 163 | 0.209 | 33 | 84 | 0.313 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.222 | 0.303 | 0.411 | OK |
| Colt Keith | DH | 170 | 550 | 154 | 0.280 | 0 | 23 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.217 | 0.265 | 0.314 | OK |
| Matt Vierling | CF | 165 | 599 | 122 | 0.204 | 15 | 84 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.152 | 0.225 | 0.284 | OK |
| Zach McKinstry | SS | 122 | 386 | 59 | 0.153 | 5 | 36 | 0.235 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.172 | 0.278 | 0.232 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 29 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 0.207 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Taj Bradley | Starter | 11 | 59.5 | 3.63 | 1.345 | 10.6 | 70 | 5.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 107 | 5.1 | 5 | 3 |
| Yoendrys Gómez | Middle Reliever | 16 | 11.2 | 0.80 | 1.071 | 14.5 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Taylor Rogers | Middle Reliever | 27 | 19.3 | 4.20 | 1.762 | 8.4 | 18 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Eric Orze | Middle Reliever | 26 | 26.0 | 4.85 | 1.692 | 9.3 | 27 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Troy Melton | Starter | 3 | 20.2 | 1.78 | 0.891 | 4.0 | 9 | 6.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 89 | 6.1 | 2 | 2 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever | 28 | 26.4 | 1.70 | 1.553 | 5.8 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Will Vest | Middle Reliever | 21 | 18.1 | 7.46 | 1.657 | 11.4 | 23 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyler Holton | Middle Reliever | 28 | 23.2 | 5.43 | 1.810 | 9.3 | 24 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
DET wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| CLE | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
Quality edge: -1.6062; margin adjustment: -0.6746; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trent Grisham | CF | 218 | 801 | 173 | 0.216 | 33 | 135 | 0.331 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.273 | 0.374 | 0.460 | OK |
| Ben Rice | DH | 221 | 838 | 252 | 0.301 | 71 | 173 | 0.403 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.302 | 0.406 | 0.599 | OK |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 117 | 440 | 125 | 0.284 | 26 | 74 | 0.364 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.274 | 0.332 | 0.520 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 243 | 890 | 244 | 0.274 | 37 | 166 | 0.378 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.271 | 0.368 | 0.459 | OK |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 224 | 847 | 208 | 0.246 | 29 | 97 | 0.326 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.297 | 0.431 | OK |
| Spencer Jones | RF | 30 | 80 | 19 | 0.238 | 0 | 9 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.270 | 0.333 | 0.346 | OK |
| Anthony Volpe | SS | 49 | 164 | 47 | 0.287 | 6 | 36 | 0.424 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.216 | 0.347 | 0.364 | OK |
| Ryan McMahon | 3B | 159 | 529 | 107 | 0.202 | 19 | 68 | 0.262 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.222 | 0.270 | 0.407 | OK |
| J.C. Escarra | C | 64 | 216 | 47 | 0.218 | 0 | 28 | 0.264 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.272 | 0.330 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 38 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 122 | 447 | 129 | 0.289 | 13 | 54 | 0.397 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.311 | 0.388 | OK |
| José Ramírez | 3B | 260 | 966 | 229 | 0.237 | 38 | 130 | 0.351 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.226 | 0.325 | 0.407 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | RF | 224 | 870 | 222 | 0.255 | 32 | 149 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.230 | 0.292 | 0.346 | OK |
| Kyle Manzardo | 1B | 177 | 627 | 135 | 0.215 | 18 | 62 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.200 | 0.289 | 0.348 | OK |
| Rhys Hoskins | DH | 157 | 489 | 99 | 0.202 | 23 | 85 | 0.345 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.350 | 0.434 | OK |
| Angel Martínez | LF | 200 | 769 | 197 | 0.256 | 39 | 121 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.165 | 0.195 | 0.314 | OK |
| Steven Kwan | CF | 238 | 898 | 191 | 0.213 | 4 | 56 | 0.328 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.321 | 0.289 | OK |
| Austin Hedges | C | 86 | 271 | 69 | 0.255 | 5 | 20 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.308 | 0.334 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 213 | 714 | 212 | 0.297 | 15 | 107 | 0.375 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.303 | 0.372 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Gerrit Cole | Starter | 3 | 17.3 | 2.08 | 0.925 | 7.3 | 14 | 5.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 99 | 5.2 | 4 | 2 |
| David Bednar | Middle Reliever | 27 | 25.8 | 4.19 | 1.512 | 11.5 | 33 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Fernando Cruz | Middle Reliever | 31 | 20.2 | 2.67 | 1.634 | 14.7 | 33 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Hill | Middle Reliever | 30 | 21.1 | 3.84 | 1.327 | 5.5 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Slade Cecconi | Starter | 13 | 65.8 | 5.06 | 1.474 | 7.4 | 54 | 5.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 107 | 5.0 | 2 | 4 |
| Cade Smith | Middle Reliever | 29 | 29.4 | 2.76 | 1.088 | 14.1 | 46 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Middle Reliever | 19 | 14.1 | 4.47 | 1.631 | 8.9 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Shawn Armstrong | Middle Reliever | 19 | 15.2 | 2.37 | 1.382 | 11.8 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Colin Holderman | Middle Reliever | 20 | 21.2 | 2.12 | 0.896 | 11.9 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
NYY wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.0981; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 249 | 969 | 239 | 0.247 | 99 | 186 | 0.361 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.246 | 0.357 | 0.485 | OK |
| Trea Turner | SS | 250 | 1074 | 249 | 0.232 | 34 | 91 | 0.279 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.222 | 0.278 | 0.319 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | 1B | 240 | 870 | 239 | 0.275 | 58 | 151 | 0.383 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.259 | 0.381 | 0.446 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | LF | 202 | 753 | 256 | 0.340 | 26 | 117 | 0.372 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.312 | 0.348 | 0.565 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 3B | 219 | 823 | 181 | 0.220 | 19 | 107 | 0.279 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.266 | 0.322 | 0.420 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 2B | 195 | 698 | 153 | 0.219 | 21 | 102 | 0.272 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.227 | 0.294 | 0.366 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 138 | 480 | 118 | 0.246 | 10 | 43 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.210 | 0.290 | 0.333 | OK |
| Adolis García | RF | 223 | 796 | 158 | 0.198 | 15 | 74 | 0.283 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.206 | 0.262 | 0.402 | OK |
| Justin Crawford | CF | 182 | 619 | 147 | 0.237 | 8 | 45 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.278 | 0.343 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | DH | 235 | 864 | 251 | 0.291 | 12 | 100 | 0.388 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.323 | 0.330 | OK |
| Nathan Lukes | CF | 79 | 271 | 88 | 0.325 | 1 | 37 | 0.369 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.290 | 0.316 | 0.400 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 231 | 926 | 283 | 0.306 | 24 | 94 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.302 | 0.319 | 0.501 | OK |
| Jesús Sánchez | LF | 183 | 615 | 171 | 0.278 | 25 | 105 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.213 | 0.239 | 0.336 | OK |
| Yohendrick Pinango | RF | 88 | 302 | 93 | 0.308 | 10 | 49 | 0.339 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.274 | 0.307 | 0.451 | OK |
| Brandon Valenzuela | C | 114 | 355 | 96 | 0.270 | 20 | 50 | 0.366 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 0.366 | 0.561 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 233 | 872 | 195 | 0.224 | 50 | 136 | 0.312 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.315 | 0.402 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 204 | 731 | 168 | 0.230 | 25 | 113 | 0.263 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.234 | 0.257 | 0.367 | OK |
| Charles McAdoo | 1B | 3 | 11 | 3 | 0.273 | 1 | 3 | 0.273 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.223 | 0.233 | 0.360 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Zack Wheeler | Starter | 8 | 50.2 | 2.33 | 0.837 | 8.6 | 48 | 6.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 116 | 6.2 | 5 | 2 |
| Jhoan Duran | Middle Reliever | 22 | 21.2 | 1.27 | 0.849 | 14.0 | 33 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Keller | Middle Reliever | 29 | 27.5 | 3.60 | 1.309 | 9.8 | 30 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever | 27 | 22.0 | 2.45 | 1.364 | 11.0 | 27 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| José Alvarado | Middle Reliever | 28 | 17.9 | 7.04 | 2.123 | 14.6 | 29 | 0.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dylan Cease | Starter | 11 | 60.6 | 3.12 | 1.238 | 13.7 | 92 | 6.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 99 | 6.0 | 7 | 1 |
| Louis Varland | Middle Reliever | 31 | 31.4 | 0.29 | 1.051 | 12.9 | 45 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Rogers | Middle Reliever | 31 | 27.2 | 2.32 | 1.140 | 6.0 | 18 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Braydon Fisher | Middle Reliever | 33 | 30.2 | 2.98 | 1.126 | 11.0 | 37 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
TOR wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
Quality edge: -1.0746; margin adjustment: -0.4513; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Victor Robles | RF | 27 | 87 | 24 | 0.276 | 0 | 4 | 0.276 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.237 | 0.245 | 0.343 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 257 | 1051 | 270 | 0.257 | 49 | 133 | 0.316 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.244 | 0.311 | 0.417 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 249 | 921 | 282 | 0.306 | 24 | 114 | 0.392 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.304 | 0.381 | 0.449 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 238 | 951 | 255 | 0.268 | 24 | 114 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.277 | 0.329 | 0.417 | OK |
| Rob Refsnyder | DH | 89 | 222 | 26 | 0.117 | 8 | 23 | 0.209 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.250 | 0.308 | OK |
| Patrick Wisdom | 3B | 16 | 50 | 4 | 0.080 | 1 | 6 | 0.115 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.112 | 0.155 | 0.204 | OK |
| Mitch Garver | C | 87 | 261 | 56 | 0.215 | 8 | 25 | 0.359 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.230 | 0.352 | 0.348 | OK |
| Cole Young | SS | 234 | 832 | 204 | 0.245 | 14 | 111 | 0.322 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.307 | 0.352 | OK |
| Ryan Bliss | 2B | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 1 | 0.125 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.111 | 0.225 | 0.174 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0.235 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Taylor Ward | DH | 261 | 958 | 253 | 0.264 | 10 | 76 | 0.408 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.388 | 0.393 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 263 | 1121 | 238 | 0.212 | 54 | 137 | 0.269 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.304 | 0.365 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 253 | 970 | 235 | 0.242 | 43 | 155 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.234 | 0.315 | 0.423 | OK |
| Colton Cowser | LF | 121 | 345 | 73 | 0.212 | 11 | 46 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.243 | 0.320 | 0.424 | OK |
| Leody Taveras | CF | 169 | 572 | 155 | 0.271 | 9 | 92 | 0.360 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.169 | 0.252 | 0.262 | OK |
| Coby Mayo | 3B | 158 | 526 | 111 | 0.211 | 23 | 77 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.264 | 0.395 | OK |
| Jackson Holliday | 2B | 35 | 112 | 24 | 0.214 | 5 | 19 | 0.299 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.311 | 0.351 | OK |
| Tyler O'Neill | RF | 110 | 326 | 55 | 0.169 | 8 | 30 | 0.285 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.181 | 0.270 | 0.248 | OK |
| Sam Huff | C | 10 | 36 | 8 | 0.222 | 0 | 4 | 0.222 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.185 | 0.198 | 0.326 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Logan Gilbert | Starter | 13 | 71.8 | 3.89 | 1.128 | 9.7 | 77 | 5.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 103 | 5.2 | 6 | 2 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Middle Reliever | 26 | 22.7 | 5.55 | 1.454 | 14.7 | 37 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Brash | Middle Reliever | 19 | 14.8 | 0.61 | 0.946 | 9.1 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| José A. Ferrer | Middle Reliever | 31 | 25.5 | 1.76 | 1.373 | 8.8 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever | 32 | 25.3 | 2.85 | 1.660 | 9.2 | 26 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Trevor Rogers | Starter | 11 | 52.0 | 6.58 | 1.577 | 7.1 | 41 | 4.1 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 92 | 4.1 | 4 | 4 |
| Rico Garcia | Middle Reliever | 29 | 24.2 | 1.12 | 0.702 | 11.5 | 31 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Middle Reliever | 15 | 10.8 | 8.33 | 1.852 | 11.7 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever | 28 | 17.6 | 2.56 | 0.795 | 8.2 | 16 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nunez | Middle Reliever | 29 | 29.3 | 4.91 | 1.263 | 11.1 | 36 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
SEA wins 6-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | x | 2 | 10 |
Quality edge: -0.2093; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| JJ Wetherholt | 2B | 249 | 976 | 232 | 0.238 | 42 | 117 | 0.359 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.259 | 0.348 | 0.376 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | DH | 252 | 959 | 247 | 0.258 | 28 | 117 | 0.383 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.230 | 0.314 | 0.340 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 237 | 956 | 269 | 0.281 | 32 | 164 | 0.347 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.288 | 0.355 | 0.472 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 233 | 913 | 293 | 0.321 | 70 | 203 | 0.385 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.319 | 0.367 | 0.551 | OK |
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 3 | 10 | 3 | 0.300 | 1 | 3 | 0.462 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.249 | 0.397 | 0.482 | OK |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 207 | 798 | 184 | 0.231 | 6 | 94 | 0.299 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.235 | 0.302 | 0.347 | OK |
| Jimmy Crooks | C | 5 | 14 | 3 | 0.214 | 0 | 2 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.331 | 0.391 | OK |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 206 | 747 | 169 | 0.226 | 25 | 110 | 0.301 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.173 | 0.247 | 0.302 | OK |
| Nathan Church | CF | 152 | 569 | 144 | 0.253 | 20 | 70 | 0.283 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.256 | 0.346 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carson Benge | RF | 209 | 801 | 214 | 0.267 | 15 | 102 | 0.334 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.289 | 0.337 | 0.505 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | SS | 251 | 1038 | 239 | 0.230 | 24 | 136 | 0.278 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.263 | 0.306 | 0.375 | OK |
| Juan Soto | LF | 173 | 655 | 194 | 0.296 | 46 | 109 | 0.393 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.326 | 0.407 | OK |
| Jared Young | 1B | 34 | 103 | 33 | 0.320 | 3 | 9 | 0.375 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.183 | 0.245 | 0.344 | OK |
| A.J. Ewing | CF | 69 | 238 | 63 | 0.265 | 4 | 23 | 0.371 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.262 | 0.356 | 0.355 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 229 | 844 | 198 | 0.235 | 23 | 96 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.282 | 0.418 | OK |
| Brett Baty | 3B | 189 | 679 | 169 | 0.249 | 14 | 92 | 0.313 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.232 | 0.287 | 0.337 | OK |
| MJ Melendez | DH | 93 | 244 | 57 | 0.234 | 9 | 25 | 0.349 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.196 | 0.270 | 0.405 | OK |
| Francisco Alvarez | C | 129 | 439 | 103 | 0.235 | 19 | 43 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.284 | 0.376 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dustin May | Starter | 12 | 65.5 | 4.67 | 1.313 | 8.2 | 60 | 5.2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 109 | 5.2 | 5 | 0 |
| Riley O'Brien | Middle Reliever | 29 | 27.7 | 3.90 | 1.227 | 10.1 | 31 | 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.1 | 0 | 2 |
| JoJo Romero | Middle Reliever | 29 | 22.6 | 4.38 | 1.593 | 11.5 | 29 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Middle Reliever | 28 | 22.6 | 3.58 | 1.372 | 9.2 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Freddy Peralta | Starter | 13 | 69.9 | 3.73 | 1.359 | 9.5 | 74 | 5.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 97 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 |
| Devin Williams | Middle Reliever | 23 | 19.6 | 5.05 | 1.480 | 15.2 | 33 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 27 | 26.9 | 2.68 | 1.041 | 9.0 | 27 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever | 27 | 19.9 | 1.81 | 1.457 | 13.1 | 29 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
NYM wins 2-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Quality edge: -1.0675; margin adjustment: -0.4483; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Joc Pederson | DH | 166 | 499 | 129 | 0.259 | 25 | 68 | 0.361 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.187 | 0.284 | 0.362 | OK |
| Corey Seager | SS | 184 | 688 | 126 | 0.183 | 33 | 91 | 0.293 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.178 | 0.267 | 0.354 | OK |
| Josh Jung | 3B | 216 | 839 | 257 | 0.306 | 28 | 99 | 0.364 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.307 | 0.356 | 0.494 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 244 | 964 | 251 | 0.260 | 29 | 93 | 0.343 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.217 | 0.287 | 0.356 | OK |
| Wyatt Langford | LF | 87 | 362 | 88 | 0.243 | 4 | 18 | 0.277 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.235 | 0.289 | 0.406 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | 2B | 173 | 605 | 184 | 0.304 | 14 | 113 | 0.359 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.296 | 0.370 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 224 | 863 | 204 | 0.236 | 38 | 149 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.229 | 0.287 | 0.367 | OK |
| Evan Carter | CF | 200 | 641 | 118 | 0.184 | 25 | 70 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.145 | 0.248 | 0.255 | OK |
| Kyle Higashioka | C | 97 | 329 | 66 | 0.201 | 12 | 35 | 0.287 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.206 | 0.290 | 0.339 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carter Jensen | C | 195 | 672 | 154 | 0.229 | 25 | 106 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.262 | 0.355 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 253 | 1015 | 291 | 0.287 | 40 | 113 | 0.356 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.323 | 0.387 | OK |
| Maikel Garcia | 3B | 239 | 985 | 282 | 0.286 | 14 | 102 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.269 | 0.326 | 0.376 | OK |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | 237 | 894 | 178 | 0.199 | 24 | 111 | 0.296 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.325 | 0.384 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | DH | 229 | 884 | 195 | 0.221 | 42 | 112 | 0.273 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.235 | 0.303 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | RF | 188 | 654 | 147 | 0.225 | 19 | 44 | 0.302 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.278 | 0.317 | OK |
| Michael Massey | 2B | 123 | 390 | 95 | 0.244 | 13 | 53 | 0.260 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.224 | 0.368 | OK |
| Isaac Collins | LF | 187 | 614 | 137 | 0.223 | 11 | 71 | 0.352 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.336 | 0.281 | OK |
| Kyle Isbel | CF | 160 | 522 | 136 | 0.261 | 11 | 42 | 0.311 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.210 | 0.250 | 0.301 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 30 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Nathan Eovaldi | Starter | 12 | 74.2 | 4.12 | 1.186 | 9.0 | 74 | 6.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 94 | 6.1 | 7 | 1 |
| Jacob Latz | Middle Reliever | 22 | 27.6 | 0.98 | 0.507 | 9.5 | 29 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jakob Junis | Middle Reliever | 23 | 25.5 | 1.76 | 0.824 | 6.0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever | 28 | 22.8 | 3.55 | 1.623 | 8.3 | 21 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Stephen Kolek | Starter | 6 | 37.3 | 3.38 | 0.992 | 6.5 | 27 | 6.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 113 | 6.1 | 6 | 1 |
| Lucas Erceg | Middle Reliever | 25 | 22.6 | 5.18 | 1.858 | 8.4 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Strahm | Middle Reliever | 20 | 18.4 | 4.40 | 1.250 | 8.3 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Middle Reliever | 26 | 23.3 | 1.93 | 1.073 | 11.2 | 29 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| John Schreiber | Middle Reliever | 28 | 21.6 | 3.33 | 1.481 | 6.7 | 16 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
TEX wins 2-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| SF | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
Quality edge: -0.9242; margin adjustment: -0.3882; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | RF | 276 | 1062 | 305 | 0.287 | 77 | 195 | 0.429 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.254 | 0.391 | 0.495 | OK |
| Luis García Jr. | 1B | 183 | 680 | 189 | 0.278 | 23 | 130 | 0.299 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.204 | 0.234 | 0.431 | OK |
| Jose Fernandez | DH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.232 | 0.274 | 0.322 | |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 248 | 943 | 281 | 0.298 | 50 | 210 | 0.388 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.274 | 0.349 | 0.515 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | LF | 256 | 1053 | 268 | 0.255 | 33 | 128 | 0.311 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.247 | 0.299 | 0.397 | OK |
| Jorbit Vivas | 3B | 125 | 374 | 95 | 0.254 | 4 | 24 | 0.341 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.301 | 0.338 | OK |
| Nasim Nuñez | 2B | 197 | 674 | 132 | 0.196 | 0 | 65 | 0.296 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.234 | 0.308 | 0.279 | OK |
| Drew Millas | C | 102 | 339 | 62 | 0.183 | 5 | 29 | 0.269 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.284 | 0.320 | OK |
| Jacob Young | CF | 200 | 749 | 175 | 0.234 | 25 | 93 | 0.286 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.211 | 0.250 | 0.337 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 45 | 38 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Casey Schmitt | LF | 205 | 818 | 249 | 0.304 | 54 | 139 | 0.346 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 0.296 | 0.540 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | 1B | 239 | 933 | 234 | 0.251 | 30 | 127 | 0.300 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.223 | 0.284 | 0.399 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 236 | 962 | 324 | 0.337 | 10 | 102 | 0.378 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.307 | 0.341 | 0.416 | OK |
| Willy Adames | SS | 242 | 1014 | 256 | 0.252 | 34 | 97 | 0.287 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.277 | 0.471 | OK |
| Jung Hoo Lee | RF | 204 | 804 | 243 | 0.302 | 12 | 78 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.363 | 0.388 | 0.482 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | DH | 61 | 202 | 46 | 0.228 | 5 | 10 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.281 | 0.351 | 0.413 | OK |
| Matt Chapman | 3B | 238 | 909 | 209 | 0.230 | 8 | 94 | 0.321 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.307 | 0.382 | 0.520 | OK |
| Daniel Susac | C | 59 | 209 | 69 | 0.330 | 0 | 38 | 0.387 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.206 | 0.263 | 0.315 | OK |
| Jonah Cox | CF | 6 | 10 | 4 | 0.400 | 1 | 2 | 0.400 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.130 | 0.144 | 0.295 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 33 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Andrew Alvarez | Starter | 6 | 19.4 | 3.71 | 1.289 | 10.2 | 22 | 5.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 91 | 5.0 | 3 | 3 |
| Clayton Beeter | Middle Reliever | 17 | 16.7 | 4.31 | 1.497 | 9.7 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Brad Lord | Middle Reliever | 19 | 37.3 | 2.65 | 1.072 | 8.2 | 34 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Orlando Ribalta | Middle Reliever | 17 | 16.4 | 1.65 | 1.037 | 7.1 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Richard Lovelady | Middle Reliever | 20 | 16.4 | 3.29 | 2.134 | 9.9 | 18 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Adrian Houser | Starter | 12 | 57.4 | 5.80 | 1.672 | 6.3 | 40 | 4.2 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 100 | 4.2 | 3 | 4 |
| Caleb Kilian | Middle Reliever | 28 | 25.7 | 3.85 | 1.362 | 11.2 | 32 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keaton Winn | Middle Reliever | 29 | 28.1 | 3.52 | 1.068 | 8.3 | 26 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Erik Miller | Middle Reliever | 22 | 16.3 | 4.42 | 1.840 | 14.9 | 27 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Sam Hentges | Middle Reliever | 10 | 6.8 | 2.65 | 2.206 | 13.2 | 10 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tristan Beck | Middle Reliever | 5 | 6.0 | 10.50 | 2.167 | 3.0 | 2 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 |
WAS wins 5-4