MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

June 9, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
ARI @ MIA2 - 32 - 4MIAMIAMIA wins 4-258%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
ATL @ CHW3 - 23 - 2ATLATLATL wins 3-255%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
BOS @ TB2 - 31 - 5TBTBTB wins 5-155%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CHC @ COL6 - 46 - 3CHCCHCCHC wins 6-355%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CIN @ SD3 - 23 - 2CINCINCIN wins 3-258%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
HOU @ LAA1 - 22 - 4LAALAALAA wins 4-256%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
LAD @ PIT3 - 43 - 4PITPITPIT wins 4-356%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIL @ OAK4 - 36 - 1MILMILMIL wins 6-155%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIN @ DET3 - 44 - 5DETDETDET wins 5-456%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
NYY @ CLE4 - 15 - 2NYYNYYNYY wins 5-266%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
PHI @ TOR1 - 22 - 3TORTORTOR wins 3-255%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SEA @ BAL5 - 36 - 2SEASEASEA wins 6-258%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
STL @ NYM1 - 21 - 2NYMNYMNYM wins 2-156%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TEX @ KC2 - 12 - 1TEXTEXTEX wins 2-158%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
WAS @ SF5 - 35 - 4WASWASWAS wins 5-458%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins

ARI 34-31 (4.35 RPG / 4.51 RA)
2 - 4
MIA 31-35 (4.18 RPG / 4.48 RA)
WINNER: MIA wins 4-2 TARGET: ARI 2 - 3 MIA (MIA) Confidence: 57.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
ARI10000010026
MIA00001120x410

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.339
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff-103.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.293
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-137.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

ARI Season Quality

Record34-31
Win%0.523
Run Diff-10
RD/Game-0.154

MIA Season Quality

Record31-35
Win%0.470
Run Diff-20
RD/Game-0.303

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2293; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte2B 232982267 0.272 421510.318 54100 11 0.250 0.199 0.252 0.379 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 232859255 0.297 351310.395 55000 00 0.000 0.261 0.349 0.558 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 132476124 0.261 14760.327 53111 21 0.333 0.251 0.327 0.419 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 203703192 0.273 301180.356 44111 01 0.250 0.227 0.297 0.377 OK
Pavin SmithDH 15366 0.167 060.340 44000 02 0.000 0.222 0.367 0.297 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 227799182 0.228 10810.341 43000 10 0.000 0.263 0.349 0.368 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 7727173 0.269 0290.333 43100 12 0.333 0.184 0.245 0.299 OK
LuJames Groover1B 3102 0.200 010.200 44000 02 0.000 0.227 0.238 0.318 OK
Tommy TroyLF 237124 0.338 110.427 43200 11 0.667 0.243 0.340 0.409 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39336 22 610 0.182

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Liam HicksDH 212754210 0.279 482000.356 54100 11 0.250 0.241 0.340 0.385 OK
Otto LopezSS 241971337 0.347 201100.377 54100 10 0.250 0.315 0.337 0.485 OK
Kyle StowersLF 148559116 0.208 13460.297 55100 01 0.200 0.209 0.281 0.348 OK
Xavier Edwards2B 247937298 0.318 26850.404 44210 01 0.500 0.267 0.358 0.397 OK
Leo Jiménez3B 5417243 0.250 040.314 43100 10 0.333 0.174 0.236 0.224 OK
Owen CaissieRF 156487112 0.230 12970.286 43212 11 0.667 0.196 0.283 0.329 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 245899175 0.195 13640.329 43111 10 0.333 0.214 0.351 0.301 OK
Joe MackC 6922648 0.212 1310.258 44000 00 0.000 0.215 0.260 0.334 OK
Connor Norby1B 190640141 0.220 18630.328 44111 01 0.250 0.185 0.266 0.302 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393410 44 55 0.294

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zac GallenStarter 1362.75.45 1.5636.243 5.084433109 5.0 3 4
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever 11.09.00 2.0000.00 1.01001021 1.0 0 0
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 22.10.00 0.4768.62 1.00001217 1.0 2 0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Max MeyerStarter 1372.52.86 1.06210.181 6.031156117 6.0 6 1
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 1915.68.08 1.66713.323 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
Anthony BenderMiddle Reliever 2722.03.68 1.04511.929 1.00000216 1.0 2 0
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever 2422.34.04 1.25611.729 1.01001120 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

MIA wins 4-2


Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox

ATL 45-21 (5.21 RPG / 3.45 RA)
3 - 2
CHW 34-31 (4.77 RPG / 4.65 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 3-2 TARGET: ATL 3 - 2 CHW (ATL) Confidence: 54.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
ATL20000000134
CHW10000000124

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.321
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff-79.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.323
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.4
Run Diff-62.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

ATL Season Quality

Record45-21
Win%0.682
Run Diff116
RD/Game1.758

CHW Season Quality

Record34-31
Win%0.523
Run Diff8
RD/Game0.123

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.8726; margin adjustment: -0.7865; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 199757180 0.238 19810.360 42010 21 0.000 0.271 0.376 0.461 OK
Michael Harris IICF 206804241 0.300 531400.324 44000 01 0.000 0.303 0.334 0.505 OK
Matt Olson1B 2561002272 0.271 702020.353 44110 01 0.250 0.282 0.344 0.502 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 252983273 0.278 401370.337 43313 10 1.000 0.271 0.332 0.476 OK
Mauricio DubónSS 223854218 0.255 151270.310 44000 01 0.000 0.280 0.334 0.525 OK
Dominic SmithDH 125420140 0.333 17840.364 44000 00 0.000 0.259 0.303 0.421 OK
Austin Riley3B 243920201 0.218 311320.292 44000 03 0.000 0.216 0.282 0.346 OK
Mike YastrzemskiLF 161515113 0.219 9450.304 33000 02 0.000 0.198 0.297 0.296 OK
Austin WynnsC 140 0.000 000.000 33000 01 0.000 0.108 0.175 0.143
TEAM TOTALS 34314 33 310 0.129

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 157556146 0.263 5610.375 42100 20 0.500 0.258 0.312 0.362 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 247916213 0.233 581510.364 44100 00 0.250 0.234 0.355 0.421 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 180663166 0.250 171060.293 43000 12 0.000 0.233 0.308 0.430 OK
Jacob Gonzalez1B 7206 0.300 140.391 43011 02 0.000 0.266 0.354 0.408 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 237917243 0.265 24890.338 44000 01 0.000 0.257 0.327 0.360 OK
Braden NettRF 000 0.000 000.000 43211 11 0.667 0.244 0.313 0.397
Tristan PetersCF 157482143 0.297 8540.358 44000 01 0.000 0.247 0.302 0.398 OK
Luisangel AcuñaSS 11234760 0.173 0220.238 43000 11 0.000 0.175 0.234 0.210 OK
Drew RomoC 6722139 0.176 18380.293 44000 01 0.000 0.122 0.213 0.289 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36304 22 59 0.133

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Grant HolmesStarter 1261.63.94 1.3478.357 5.12115593 5.1 5 1
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 2020.20.89 0.99010.724 1.00000216 1.0 2 0
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 2827.50.65 0.8738.225 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 3128.11.28 0.67612.238 1.00000011 1.0 0 0
Tyler KinleyMiddle Reliever 3126.03.46 1.30810.731 0.21110114 0.2 1 1

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon EisertStarter 1211.53.91 1.39110.213 3.01112549 3.0 5 1
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 1.02111023 1.0 0 1
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 2.00000325 2.0 3 0
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever 2420.91.72 1.4839.923 2.00000125 2.0 1 0
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever 12.18.57 1.9054.31 1.01110125 1.0 1 1

Game Summary

ATL wins 3-2


Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays

BOS 27-38 (3.89 RPG / 4.08 RA)
1 - 5
TB 39-25 (4.53 RPG / 4.38 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 5-1 TARGET: BOS 2 - 3 TB (TB) Confidence: 54.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
BOS00000100014
TB00000014x55

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.236
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-117.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

TB Recent Form

Win%0.241
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-117.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

BOS Season Quality

Record27-37
Win%0.422
Run Diff-11
RD/Game-0.172

TB Season Quality

Record38-25
Win%0.603
Run Diff9
RD/Game0.143

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.5867; margin adjustment: 0.2464; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jarren DuranLF 229955204 0.214 381360.284 44000 00 0.000 0.187 0.237 0.324 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 207788224 0.284 18900.349 43000 00 0.000 0.274 0.316 0.398 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 239942264 0.280 271050.346 43000 11 0.000 0.249 0.311 0.395 OK
Willson Contreras1B 228841239 0.284 511630.380 44111 01 0.250 0.297 0.368 0.550 OK
Masataka YoshidaDH 117389100 0.257 4290.345 44100 01 0.250 0.175 0.257 0.266 OK
Mickey GasperC 5419464 0.330 0120.373 44000 01 0.000 0.255 0.300 0.346 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 177609116 0.190 5750.266 43100 00 0.333 0.214 0.264 0.324 OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B 7723071 0.309 4360.391 33000 00 0.000 0.215 0.292 0.284 OK
Marcelo MayerSS 168557120 0.215 8480.275 33100 00 0.333 0.159 0.207 0.261 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34314 11 14 0.129

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 228894286 0.320 341620.398 44000 02 0.000 0.322 0.376 0.523 OK
Junior Caminero3B 242951255 0.268 581300.367 44110 01 0.250 0.271 0.377 0.447 OK
Chandler SimpsonLF 228943267 0.283 0440.319 43000 11 0.000 0.178 0.220 0.225 OK
Ryan Vilade1B 8425185 0.339 8620.400 42011 20 0.000 0.286 0.355 0.477 OK
Austin SlaterRF 131 0.333 000.333 44212 00 0.500 0.223 0.292 0.290 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 191706133 0.188 15750.267 44111 01 0.250 0.193 0.284 0.363 OK
Ben WilliamsonSS 135451122 0.271 0570.354 43111 11 0.333 0.225 0.309 0.304 OK
Nick FortesC 141463114 0.246 4380.290 44000 01 0.000 0.209 0.231 0.290 OK
Richie Palacios2B 124387104 0.269 4600.377 31000 11 0.000 0.161 0.265 0.246 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35295 55 58 0.172

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Payton TolleStarter 846.42.33 0.9919.951 6.00222798 6.0 7 2
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 2019.20.47 0.93812.226 1.22111139 1.2 1 1
Justin SlatenMiddle Reliever 139.87.35 1.73514.716 0.13222021 0.1 0 2

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nick MartinezStarter 1269.52.33 1.2095.442 6.03111489 6.0 4 1
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 2825.42.13 1.06310.630 1.01000013 1.0 0 0
Ian SeymourMiddle Reliever 2630.84.09 1.26611.138 1.1000004 1.1 0 0
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 2824.03.00 1.0428.222 0.20000013 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

TB wins 5-1


Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies

CHC 34-32 (4.59 RPG / 4.55 RA)
6 - 3
COL 24-42 (4.3 RPG / 5.8 RA)
WINNER: CHC wins 6-3 TARGET: CHC 6 - 4 COL (CHC) Confidence: 55.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
CHC13000200069
COL00001020038

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.097
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-182.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

COL Recent Form

Win%0.183
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-231.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak

CHC Season Quality

Record34-32
Win%0.515
Run Diff3
RD/Game0.045

COL Season Quality

Record24-42
Win%0.364
Run Diff-99
RD/Game-1.500

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.7727; margin adjustment: -0.7445; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 242893222 0.249 311150.340 55312 00 0.600 0.306 0.363 0.578 OK
Moisés BallesterosDH 14645095 0.211 23740.288 54110 10 0.250 0.243 0.316 0.372 OK
Michael Busch1B 256945226 0.239 301580.382 54210 12 0.500 0.262 0.379 0.410 OK
Alex Bregman3B 2631086280 0.258 18830.346 55111 01 0.200 0.215 0.300 0.311 OK
Ian HappLF 247965232 0.240 651540.359 54000 11 0.000 0.265 0.354 0.563 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 190732188 0.257 34900.348 54000 10 0.000 0.281 0.365 0.496 OK
Nico Hoerner2B 2631105283 0.256 211620.341 53110 11 0.333 0.232 0.310 0.324 OK
Miguel AmayaC 9330567 0.220 12340.324 43000 11 0.000 0.193 0.282 0.305 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 220763152 0.199 331180.305 44113 00 0.250 0.182 0.285 0.309 OK
TEAM TOTALS 43369 66 66 0.250

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyLF 146496128 0.258 10690.296 55211 02 0.400 0.257 0.289 0.410 OK
Willi Castro2B 178651169 0.260 9750.320 44100 01 0.250 0.247 0.326 0.379 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 221831230 0.277 301170.355 43000 11 0.000 0.224 0.306 0.357 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 219867213 0.246 59980.313 44000 00 0.000 0.245 0.321 0.573 OK
Troy JohnstonRF 191692227 0.328 10970.389 44000 02 0.000 0.296 0.355 0.427 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 210796174 0.219 10830.265 44200 00 0.500 0.191 0.240 0.322 OK
Kyle Karros3B 188580132 0.228 9550.337 44100 00 0.250 0.247 0.355 0.383 OK
Edouard JulienDH 157539121 0.224 10610.325 43111 10 0.333 0.233 0.330 0.319 OK
Tyler FreemanRF 142522130 0.249 11600.325 44111 00 0.250 0.210 0.259 0.314 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37358 33 26 0.229

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Colin ReaStarter 1362.14.78 1.4017.552 5.14111389 5.1 3 1
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever 1714.52.48 1.3109.916 1.23220218 1.2 2 2
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 2825.32.49 1.42312.134 1.01001020 1.0 0 0
Caleb ThielbarMiddle Reliever 1712.24.43 1.55712.517 1.00000116 1.0 1 0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tomoyuki SuganoStarter 1261.04.13 1.3115.336 5.153341108 5.1 1 3
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 1831.92.26 1.0978.530 1.13220126 1.1 1 2
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 2724.97.59 2.12911.933 1.00112121 1.0 1 1
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever 2616.57.09 2.24213.124 0.21000115 0.2 1 0
Brennan BernardinoMiddle Reliever 3018.86.22 1.8099.119 0.20000214 0.2 2 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 6-3


Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres

CIN 31-34 (4.26 RPG / 5.11 RA)
3 - 2
SD 34-31 (3.8 RPG / 4.02 RA)
WINNER: CIN wins 3-2 TARGET: CIN 3 - 2 SD (CIN) Confidence: 57.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
CIN002000001310
SD00000000225

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.250
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-191.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

SD Recent Form

Win%0.186
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-138.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CIN Season Quality

Record31-33
Win%0.484
Run Diff-51
RD/Game-0.797

SD Season Quality

Record33-31
Win%0.516
Run Diff-18
RD/Game-0.281

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.5625; margin adjustment: 0.2362; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Blake DunnCF 6226984 0.312 6170.371 54000 11 0.000 0.216 0.261 0.314 OK
JJ BledayLF 122470129 0.274 341050.366 54000 10 0.000 0.243 0.323 0.474 OK
Sal Stewart3B 248927229 0.247 491630.356 55211 00 0.400 0.232 0.330 0.386 OK
Nathaniel Lowe1B 138460131 0.285 36930.375 55210 02 0.400 0.184 0.271 0.346 OK
Spencer SteerRF 217795210 0.264 32900.340 55200 00 0.400 0.225 0.322 0.396 OK
Eugenio SuárezDH 127466106 0.227 11540.303 43000 10 0.000 0.177 0.253 0.279 OK
Matt McLainSS 221851183 0.215 25950.311 44212 01 0.500 0.247 0.332 0.501 OK
Tyler StephensonC 166548108 0.197 18750.303 43100 11 0.333 0.222 0.322 0.380 OK
Edwin Arroyo2B 6174 0.235 010.300 44100 00 0.250 0.212 0.292 0.292 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413710 33 45 0.270

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.2B 237914241 0.264 1710.340 44110 01 0.250 0.254 0.321 0.331 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 226881179 0.203 19920.278 44000 01 0.000 0.195 0.267 0.341 OK
Manny Machado3B 227823142 0.173 411240.263 44112 00 0.250 0.173 0.246 0.335 OK
Gavin Sheets1B 178604148 0.245 33880.328 44000 00 0.000 0.200 0.293 0.378 OK
Will WagnerDH 000 0.000 000.000 44100 01 0.250 0.254 0.325 0.445
Samad TaylorLF 383 0.375 030.500 43000 11 0.000 0.160 0.307 0.226 OK
Bryce JohnsonRF 3910618 0.170 060.254 33100 01 0.333 0.129 0.207 0.212 OK
Freddy FerminC 11335853 0.148 3200.248 33100 01 0.333 0.194 0.263 0.418 OK
Sung-Mun SongSS 297315 0.205 0140.318 33000 01 0.000 0.137 0.258 0.216 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33325 22 17 0.156

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chase BurnsStarter 1269.42.07 0.96510.581 6.01001792 6.0 7 0
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 2722.75.15 1.4989.123 0.20000015 0.2 0 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 3225.23.93 1.66710.429 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Sam MollMiddle Reliever 2922.23.65 1.30611.829 1.13220016 1.1 0 2

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Lucas GiolitoStarter 416.25.00 1.7906.111 4.16223485 4.1 4 2
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 2725.81.05 0.93018.854 1.11000022 1.1 0 0
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 2620.91.72 1.2926.916 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 3027.45.26 1.31412.538 1.01001120 1.0 1 0
Ron MarinaccioMiddle Reliever 2232.04.22 1.3128.430 1.11110023 1.1 0 1

Game Summary

CIN wins 3-2


Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels

HOU 31-37 (4.59 RPG / 5.0 RA)
2 - 4
LAA 25-42 (4.4 RPG / 5.18 RA)
WINNER: LAA wins 4-2 TARGET: HOU 1 - 2 LAA (LAA) Confidence: 56.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
HOU01100000023
LAA21000001x47

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.328
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-175.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.220
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-160.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

HOU Season Quality

Record30-37
Win%0.448
Run Diff-29
RD/Game-0.433

LAA Season Quality

Record25-41
Win%0.379
Run Diff-51
RD/Game-0.773

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4434; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 97400104 0.260 10320.319 44000 02 0.000 0.266 0.326 0.389 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 255943312 0.331 1001930.447 43000 10 0.000 0.303 0.423 0.596 OK
Christian Walker1B 240914251 0.275 671890.349 43110 11 0.333 0.268 0.330 0.483 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 220821198 0.241 291120.336 44000 00 0.000 0.249 0.324 0.480 OK
Jose Altuve2B 190750190 0.253 22620.334 44212 01 0.500 0.237 0.309 0.444 OK
Cam SmithRF 222779172 0.221 20920.313 44000 01 0.000 0.249 0.321 0.400 OK
Joey LoperfidoLF 6522664 0.283 0280.359 33000 01 0.000 0.247 0.314 0.363 OK
Jake MeyersCF 7527961 0.219 9260.291 33000 02 0.000 0.204 0.273 0.304 OK
Christian VázquezC 125414111 0.268 16680.325 32000 11 0.000 0.234 0.289 0.368 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33303 22 39 0.100

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 2641043250 0.240 481310.350 43110 11 0.333 0.229 0.317 0.484 OK
Mike TroutCF 260921227 0.246 631480.416 44000 02 0.000 0.186 0.344 0.362 OK
Wade MecklerLF 289631 0.323 5190.369 44110 02 0.250 0.283 0.332 0.439 OK
Jo AdellDH 244960234 0.244 341360.291 44100 01 0.250 0.249 0.266 0.394 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 206827217 0.262 181100.314 44213 00 0.500 0.246 0.293 0.376 OK
Oswald Peraza2B 167579162 0.280 27660.348 44100 01 0.250 0.243 0.274 0.408 OK
Denzer Guzman3B 150 0.000 000.000 33111 01 0.333 0.201 0.210 0.289
Jose SiriRF 194414 0.318 290.333 32000 10 0.000 0.250 0.275 0.457 OK
Sebastián RiveroC 4412922 0.171 0110.213 33000 02 0.000 0.162 0.207 0.214 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33317 44 210 0.226

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kai-Wei TengStarter 1944.23.26 1.2449.044 5.25332694 5.2 6 3
Josh HaderMiddle Reliever 33.00.00 0.33321.07 1.00000216 1.0 2 0
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 2524.62.93 1.5047.721 1.12110223 1.1 2 1

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Walbert UrenaStarter 1149.42.73 1.3568.748 5.23223692 5.2 6 2
Kirby YatesMiddle Reliever 119.44.79 1.38312.413 1.00000216 1.0 2 0
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 2426.72.36 1.19911.133 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever 2818.02.00 1.77811.523 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
Drew PomeranzMiddle Reliever 2318.06.00 1.9448.016 0.10000016 0.1 0 0

Game Summary

LAA wins 4-2


Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

LAD 42-24 (5.23 RPG / 3.21 RA)
3 - 4
PIT 34-32 (5.05 RPG / 4.59 RA)
WINNER: PIT wins 4-3 TARGET: LAD 3 - 4 PIT (PIT) Confidence: 55.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
LAD01110000037
PIT21000100x46

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.316
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff-81.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.263
Avg Runs1.7
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-108.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

LAD Season Quality

Record42-24
Win%0.636
Run Diff133
RD/Game2.015

PIT Season Quality

Record34-32
Win%0.515
Run Diff30
RD/Game0.455

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.7424; margin adjustment: -0.7318; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 246952270 0.284 421560.409 55100 02 0.200 0.330 0.433 0.569 OK
Andy PagesCF 235900279 0.310 592240.358 44211 01 0.500 0.263 0.308 0.490 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 237895244 0.273 331280.370 44000 02 0.000 0.292 0.368 0.488 OK
Mookie BettsSS 10042476 0.179 29730.228 44000 01 0.000 0.188 0.248 0.319 OK
Max Muncy3B 201712187 0.263 54830.361 43100 12 0.333 0.287 0.358 0.494 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 236909229 0.252 221230.345 43211 10 0.667 0.238 0.326 0.401 OK
Ryan WardLF 62610 0.385 050.385 44111 00 0.250 0.240 0.252 0.318 OK
Dalton RushingC 9833497 0.290 32720.370 44000 00 0.000 0.296 0.352 0.537 OK
Alex Freeland2B 12439997 0.243 9380.322 43000 02 0.000 0.233 0.315 0.339 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 33 210 0.206

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Gonzales3B 207832257 0.309 21030.361 44210 01 0.500 0.283 0.321 0.405 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 229905243 0.269 661830.359 44112 01 0.250 0.219 0.302 0.434 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 248902250 0.277 231560.403 44000 00 0.000 0.233 0.356 0.387 OK
Ryan O'HearnRF 188727211 0.290 311340.365 33000 00 0.000 0.242 0.309 0.411 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 195783150 0.192 251030.280 33111 00 0.333 0.209 0.280 0.306 OK
Davis Wendzel1B 000 0.000 000.000 33111 01 0.333 0.083 0.179 0.186
Jake MangumCF 109389105 0.270 1140.328 33000 01 0.000 0.266 0.310 0.335 OK
Jared TrioloSS 8329264 0.219 0110.276 33100 02 0.333 0.190 0.253 0.245 OK
Henry DavisC 13043863 0.144 16470.239 33000 00 0.000 0.148 0.229 0.293 OK
TEAM TOTALS 30306 44 06 0.200

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Eric LauerStarter 210.22.65 1.0784.45 4.25330477 4.2 4 3
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 2924.82.54 0.80611.231 1.21110110 1.2 1 1
Kyle HurtMiddle Reliever 2120.32.66 1.03412.027 1.20000121 1.2 1 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 2817.03.71 1.35315.930 0.00000014 0.0 0 0

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Paul SkenesStarter 1368.63.15 0.93310.882 6.063327102 6.0 7 3
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 2826.72.02 0.78711.534 1.00000117 1.0 1 0
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 2723.84.92 1.5137.921 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 2521.04.71 1.61914.634 1.0000019 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

PIT wins 4-3


Milwaukee Brewers @ Oakland Athletics

MIL 41-23 (5.38 RPG / 3.72 RA)
6 - 1
OAK 31-35 (4.35 RPG / 5.02 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 6-1 TARGET: MIL 4 - 3 OAK (MIL) Confidence: 55.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
MIL00030120069
OAK00010000015

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.382
Avg Runs1.8
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff-49.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.250
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-161.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

MIL Season Quality

Record40-23
Win%0.635
Run Diff105
RD/Game1.667

OAK Season Quality

Record31-34
Win%0.477
Run Diff-43
RD/Game-0.662

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.5652; margin adjustment: -1.0774; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Christian YelichDH 107421123 0.292 15630.356 55110 01 0.200 0.280 0.340 0.430 OK
Jackson ChourioLF 99429124 0.289 7350.336 55111 01 0.200 0.309 0.361 0.522 OK
Brice Turang2B 237889256 0.288 371610.407 54211 11 0.500 0.293 0.400 0.556 OK
William ContrerasC 227920274 0.298 191620.367 44000 00 0.000 0.288 0.347 0.444 OK
Jake Bauers1B 189708204 0.288 381400.365 43111 11 0.333 0.310 0.423 0.620 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 174606147 0.243 71090.352 43000 13 0.000 0.242 0.339 0.398 OK
Sal FrelickRF 195703157 0.223 14710.293 44113 00 0.250 0.232 0.310 0.324 OK
Luis Rengifo3B 174629135 0.215 0660.286 44210 00 0.500 0.157 0.249 0.228 OK
David HamiltonSS 151485116 0.239 3340.330 44100 01 0.250 0.256 0.341 0.413 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39369 66 38 0.250

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Colby ThomasRF 4512137 0.306 3150.354 44000 02 0.000 0.230 0.287 0.406 OK
Nick Kurtz1B 258938267 0.285 441820.438 44100 02 0.250 0.254 0.401 0.549 OK
Shea LangeliersDH 238992301 0.303 631370.371 44100 01 0.250 0.256 0.306 0.504 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 232892197 0.221 301180.311 43111 10 0.333 0.258 0.372 0.553 OK
Max Muncy3B 10739797 0.244 8320.303 44100 01 0.250 0.202 0.258 0.342 OK
Jonah HeimC 3412022 0.183 350.240 44100 00 0.250 0.212 0.280 0.502 OK
Henry BolteCF 5419359 0.306 0170.364 43000 10 0.000 0.260 0.316 0.350 OK
Zack Gelof2B 144537139 0.259 27740.311 43000 10 0.000 0.197 0.252 0.355 OK
Alika WilliamsSS 12387 0.184 060.205 43000 10 0.000 0.107 0.138 0.173 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36325 11 46 0.156

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Robert GasserStarter 313.14.81 1.4508.212 4.14112584 4.1 5 1
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 2323.03.13 1.04311.329 2.00002121 2.0 1 0
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 2521.84.13 1.33010.325 1.11000020 1.1 0 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 2935.83.27 1.53614.156 1.10000024 1.1 0 0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
J.T. GinnStarter 1463.82.82 1.1138.560 6.043335106 6.0 5 3
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 3424.93.61 1.92813.437 1.03220125 1.0 1 2
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 3024.45.90 1.59811.130 1.01110116 1.0 1 1
Scott BarlowMiddle Reliever 2924.83.63 1.2108.724 1.01000116 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 6-1


Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers

MIN 30-37 (4.6 RPG / 4.99 RA)
4 - 5
DET 27-39 (3.94 RPG / 4.3 RA)
WINNER: DET wins 5-4 TARGET: MIN 3 - 4 DET (DET) Confidence: 56.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
MIN00000202046
DET30000020x56

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.213
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-153.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

DET Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-120.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

MIN Season Quality

Record30-37
Win%0.448
Run Diff-26
RD/Game-0.388

DET Season Quality

Record27-39
Win%0.409
Run Diff-24
RD/Game-0.364

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0336; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonCF 225959257 0.268 841360.328 44112 00 0.250 0.244 0.300 0.488 OK
Brooks Lee3B 217826203 0.246 271270.302 44000 00 0.000 0.195 0.237 0.361 OK
Kody ClemensRF 176643150 0.233 24720.317 44000 00 0.000 0.209 0.262 0.433 OK
Josh BellDH 226854190 0.222 221320.286 44000 01 0.000 0.225 0.273 0.377 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 164569155 0.272 9570.376 44110 02 0.250 0.193 0.296 0.319 OK
Victor CaratiniC 156521100 0.192 6770.289 44000 00 0.000 0.265 0.331 0.389 OK
Royce Lewis1B 12141068 0.166 12530.263 33110 00 0.333 0.172 0.250 0.267 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 219811196 0.242 5840.322 33100 01 0.333 0.216 0.284 0.285 OK
Tristan GraySS 10433479 0.237 14700.281 33212 00 0.667 0.271 0.303 0.411 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33336 44 04 0.182

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gleyber Torres2B 150554143 0.258 11540.390 53010 21 0.000 0.267 0.376 0.383 OK
Kevin McGonigle3B 247947284 0.300 151100.399 52210 20 1.000 0.283 0.374 0.445 OK
Dillon DinglerC 213792193 0.244 521580.332 54000 13 0.000 0.228 0.301 0.467 OK
Kerry CarpenterRF 12339187 0.223 24690.300 43000 12 0.000 0.246 0.309 0.513 OK
Riley GreeneLF 243887274 0.309 191150.405 43214 00 0.667 0.283 0.372 0.443 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 224779163 0.209 33840.313 43111 10 0.333 0.222 0.303 0.411 OK
Colt KeithDH 170550154 0.280 0230.327 44110 02 0.250 0.217 0.265 0.314 OK
Matt VierlingCF 165599122 0.204 15840.275 44000 00 0.000 0.152 0.225 0.284 OK
Zach McKinstrySS 12238659 0.153 5360.235 43000 10 0.000 0.172 0.278 0.232 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39296 55 88 0.207

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Taj BradleyStarter 1159.53.63 1.34510.670 5.143355107 5.1 5 3
Yoendrys GómezMiddle Reliever 1611.20.80 1.07114.518 1.00000118 1.0 1 0
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 2719.34.20 1.7628.418 1.02222227 1.0 2 2
Eric OrzeMiddle Reliever 2626.04.85 1.6929.327 0.20001020 0.2 0 0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Troy MeltonStarter 320.21.78 0.8914.09 6.13220289 6.1 2 2
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 2826.41.70 1.5535.817 1.0000017 1.0 1 0
Will VestMiddle Reliever 2118.17.46 1.65711.423 1.0222005 1.0 0 2
Tyler HoltonMiddle Reliever 2823.25.43 1.8109.324 0.21000116 0.2 1 0

Game Summary

DET wins 5-4


New York Yankees @ Cleveland Guardians

NYY 39-26 (5.09 RPG / 3.58 RA)
5 - 2
CLE 37-31 (4.07 RPG / 4.09 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 5-2 TARGET: NYY 4 - 1 CLE (NYY) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
NYY210010100511
CLE20000000025

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.304
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff-65.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.290
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff-114.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

NYY Season Quality

Record39-26
Win%0.600
Run Diff98
RD/Game1.508

CLE Season Quality

Record37-31
Win%0.544
Run Diff-1
RD/Game-0.015

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.6062; margin adjustment: -0.6746; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 218801173 0.216 331350.331 54210 11 0.500 0.273 0.374 0.460 OK
Ben RiceDH 221838252 0.301 711730.403 54211 10 0.500 0.302 0.406 0.599 OK
Paul Goldschmidt1B 117440125 0.284 26740.364 55100 00 0.200 0.274 0.332 0.520 OK
Cody BellingerLF 243890244 0.274 371660.378 55213 01 0.400 0.271 0.368 0.459 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 224847208 0.246 29970.326 54000 13 0.000 0.216 0.297 0.431 OK
Spencer JonesRF 308019 0.238 090.315 44000 00 0.000 0.270 0.333 0.346 OK
Anthony VolpeSS 4916447 0.287 6360.424 44210 00 0.500 0.216 0.347 0.364 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 159529107 0.202 19680.262 44211 00 0.500 0.222 0.270 0.407 OK
J.C. EscarraC 6421647 0.218 0280.264 44000 02 0.000 0.226 0.272 0.330 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413811 55 37 0.289

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Travis Bazzana2B 122447129 0.289 13540.397 43000 11 0.000 0.224 0.311 0.388 OK
José Ramírez3B 260966229 0.237 381300.351 44110 03 0.250 0.226 0.325 0.407 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 224870222 0.255 321490.330 44100 00 0.250 0.230 0.292 0.346 OK
Kyle Manzardo1B 177627135 0.215 18620.298 44312 00 0.750 0.200 0.289 0.348 OK
Rhys HoskinsDH 15748999 0.202 23850.345 43000 12 0.000 0.203 0.350 0.434 OK
Angel MartínezLF 200769197 0.256 391210.296 44000 01 0.000 0.165 0.195 0.314 OK
Steven KwanCF 238898191 0.213 4560.328 43000 10 0.000 0.227 0.321 0.289 OK
Austin HedgesC 8627169 0.255 5200.327 44000 00 0.000 0.232 0.308 0.334 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 213714212 0.297 151070.375 33000 00 0.000 0.243 0.303 0.372 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35325 22 37 0.156

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Gerrit ColeStarter 317.32.08 0.9257.314 5.25223499 5.2 4 2
David BednarMiddle Reliever 2725.84.19 1.51211.533 1.10000220 1.1 2 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 3120.22.67 1.63414.733 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Tim HillMiddle Reliever 3021.13.84 1.3275.513 1.00000114 1.0 1 0

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Slade CecconiStarter 1365.85.06 1.4747.454 5.084422107 5.0 2 4
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 2929.42.76 1.08814.146 1.00000117 1.0 1 0
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 1914.14.47 1.6318.914 1.02110219 1.0 2 1
Shawn ArmstrongMiddle Reliever 1915.22.37 1.38211.820 1.01001120 1.0 1 0
Colin HoldermanMiddle Reliever 2021.22.12 0.89611.928 1.00000114 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 5-2


Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays

PHI 36-30 (4.05 RPG / 4.29 RA)
2 - 3
TOR 32-35 (4.09 RPG / 4.33 RA)
WINNER: TOR wins 3-2 TARGET: PHI 1 - 2 TOR (TOR) Confidence: 54.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
PHI00010001027
TOR00020000137

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.233
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-133.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.197
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-130.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

PHI Season Quality

Record36-30
Win%0.545
Run Diff-16
RD/Game-0.242

TOR Season Quality

Record32-35
Win%0.478
Run Diff-16
RD/Game-0.239

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0981; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 249969239 0.247 991860.361 55100 02 0.200 0.246 0.357 0.485 OK
Trea TurnerSS 2501074249 0.232 34910.279 44211 00 0.500 0.222 0.278 0.319 OK
Bryce Harper1B 240870239 0.275 581510.383 44000 02 0.000 0.259 0.381 0.446 OK
Brandon MarshLF 202753256 0.340 261170.372 43000 10 0.000 0.312 0.348 0.565 OK
Alec Bohm3B 219823181 0.220 191070.279 43100 00 0.333 0.266 0.322 0.420 OK
Bryson Stott2B 195698153 0.219 211020.272 44111 02 0.250 0.227 0.294 0.366 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 138480118 0.246 10430.325 44200 00 0.500 0.210 0.290 0.333 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 223796158 0.198 15740.283 43000 13 0.000 0.206 0.262 0.402 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 182619147 0.237 8450.302 44000 01 0.000 0.223 0.278 0.343 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 22 210 0.206

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.DH 235864251 0.291 121000.388 54100 12 0.250 0.244 0.323 0.330 OK
Nathan LukesCF 7927188 0.325 1370.369 53111 20 0.333 0.290 0.316 0.400 OK
Ernie Clement2B 231926283 0.306 24940.327 44000 02 0.000 0.302 0.319 0.501 OK
Jesús SánchezLF 183615171 0.278 251050.319 44200 00 0.500 0.213 0.239 0.336 OK
Yohendrick PinangoRF 8830293 0.308 10490.339 43000 10 0.000 0.274 0.307 0.451 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 11435596 0.270 20500.366 43000 10 0.000 0.269 0.366 0.561 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 233872195 0.224 501360.312 43011 00 0.000 0.249 0.315 0.402 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 204731168 0.230 251130.263 43211 10 0.667 0.234 0.257 0.367 OK
Charles McAdoo1B 3113 0.273 130.273 44100 01 0.250 0.223 0.233 0.360 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38317 33 65 0.226

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zack WheelerStarter 850.22.33 0.8378.648 6.242255116 6.2 5 2
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 2221.21.27 0.84914.033 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 2927.53.60 1.3099.830 0.00000017 0.0 0 0
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 2722.02.45 1.36411.027 0.10000017 0.1 0 0
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 2817.97.04 2.12314.629 0.0311007 0.0 0 1

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dylan CeaseStarter 1160.63.12 1.23813.792 6.02111799 6.0 7 1
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 3131.40.29 1.05112.945 1.02000219 1.0 2 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 3127.22.32 1.1406.018 1.02110019 1.0 0 1
Braydon FisherMiddle Reliever 3330.22.98 1.12611.037 1.01001117 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

TOR wins 3-2


Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles

SEA 35-32 (4.24 RPG / 3.76 RA)
6 - 2
BAL 31-36 (4.66 RPG / 5.16 RA)
WINNER: SEA wins 6-2 TARGET: SEA 5 - 3 BAL (SEA) Confidence: 57.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
SEA00004020068
BAL00020000024

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.397
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff-87.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.175
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-149.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

SEA Season Quality

Record35-32
Win%0.522
Run Diff32
RD/Game0.478

BAL Season Quality

Record31-36
Win%0.463
Run Diff-34
RD/Game-0.507

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0746; margin adjustment: -0.4513; applied: True

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Victor RoblesRF 278724 0.276 040.276 55210 01 0.400 0.237 0.245 0.343 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 2571051270 0.257 491330.316 55312 00 0.600 0.244 0.311 0.417 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 249921282 0.306 241140.392 43011 01 0.000 0.304 0.381 0.449 OK
Josh Naylor1B 238951255 0.268 241140.332 44000 01 0.000 0.277 0.329 0.417 OK
Rob RefsnyderDH 8922226 0.117 8230.209 44000 00 0.000 0.194 0.250 0.308 OK
Patrick Wisdom3B 16504 0.080 160.115 43010 10 0.000 0.112 0.155 0.204 OK
Mitch GarverC 8726156 0.215 8250.359 43110 10 0.333 0.230 0.352 0.348 OK
Cole YoungSS 234832204 0.245 141110.322 43000 11 0.000 0.255 0.307 0.352 OK
Ryan Bliss2B 360 0.000 010.125 44213 00 0.500 0.111 0.225 0.174
TEAM TOTALS 38348 66 34 0.235

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardDH 261958253 0.264 10760.408 53011 11 0.000 0.263 0.388 0.393 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 2631121238 0.212 541370.269 43000 10 0.000 0.227 0.304 0.365 OK
Pete Alonso1B 253970235 0.242 431550.324 44100 00 0.250 0.234 0.315 0.423 OK
Colton CowserLF 12134573 0.212 11460.298 44100 01 0.250 0.243 0.320 0.424 OK
Leody TaverasCF 169572155 0.271 9920.360 42100 20 0.500 0.169 0.252 0.262 OK
Coby Mayo3B 158526111 0.211 23770.286 44000 02 0.000 0.201 0.264 0.395 OK
Jackson Holliday2B 3511224 0.214 5190.299 43000 11 0.000 0.208 0.311 0.351 OK
Tyler O'NeillRF 11032655 0.169 8300.285 44000 03 0.000 0.181 0.270 0.248 OK
Sam HuffC 10368 0.222 040.222 44111 00 0.250 0.185 0.198 0.326 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37314 22 58 0.129

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan GilbertStarter 1371.83.89 1.1289.777 5.242246103 5.2 6 2
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 2622.75.55 1.45414.737 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Matt BrashMiddle Reliever 1914.80.61 0.9469.115 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
José A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 3125.51.76 1.3738.825 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever 3225.32.85 1.6609.226 0.10000118 0.1 1 0

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Trevor RogersStarter 1152.06.58 1.5777.141 4.16443492 4.1 4 4
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 2924.21.12 0.70211.531 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Andrew KittredgeMiddle Reliever 1510.88.33 1.85211.714 1.02220019 1.0 0 2
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever 2817.62.56 0.7958.216 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Anthony NunezMiddle Reliever 2929.34.91 1.26311.136 1.10000020 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

SEA wins 6-2


St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets

STL 35-28 (4.41 RPG / 4.44 RA)
1 - 2
NYM 29-36 (4.08 RPG / 4.15 RA)
WINNER: NYM wins 2-1 TARGET: STL 1 - 2 NYM (NYM) Confidence: 55.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
STL00001000013
NYM00000200x210

STL Recent Form

Win%0.148
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff-111.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.375
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-105.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

STL Season Quality

Record35-28
Win%0.556
Run Diff-2
RD/Game-0.032

NYM Season Quality

Record29-36
Win%0.446
Run Diff-5
RD/Game-0.077

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2093; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 249976232 0.238 421170.359 44000 01 0.000 0.259 0.348 0.376 OK
Iván HerreraDH 252959247 0.258 281170.383 42111 21 0.500 0.230 0.314 0.340 OK
Alec Burleson1B 237956269 0.281 321640.347 44000 01 0.000 0.288 0.355 0.472 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 233913293 0.321 702030.385 44000 01 0.000 0.319 0.367 0.551 OK
Lars NootbaarLF 3103 0.300 130.462 42100 11 0.500 0.249 0.397 0.482 OK
Masyn WinnSS 207798184 0.231 6940.299 44100 00 0.250 0.235 0.302 0.347 OK
Jimmy CrooksC 5143 0.214 020.312 44000 01 0.000 0.243 0.331 0.391 OK
Nolan Gorman3B 206747169 0.226 251100.301 43000 11 0.000 0.173 0.247 0.302 OK
Nathan ChurchCF 152569144 0.253 20700.283 43000 11 0.000 0.228 0.256 0.346 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36303 11 58 0.100

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carson BengeRF 209801214 0.267 151020.334 55211 02 0.400 0.289 0.337 0.505 OK
Bo BichetteSS 2511038239 0.230 241360.278 55100 00 0.200 0.263 0.306 0.375 OK
Juan SotoLF 173655194 0.296 461090.393 43000 11 0.000 0.231 0.326 0.407 OK
Jared Young1B 3410333 0.320 390.375 44200 00 0.500 0.183 0.245 0.344 OK
A.J. EwingCF 6923863 0.265 4230.371 42100 21 0.500 0.262 0.356 0.355 OK
Marcus Semien2B 229844198 0.235 23960.283 44000 02 0.000 0.230 0.282 0.418 OK
Brett Baty3B 189679169 0.249 14920.313 43211 10 0.667 0.232 0.287 0.337 OK
MJ MelendezDH 9324457 0.234 9250.349 44200 00 0.500 0.196 0.270 0.405 OK
Francisco AlvarezC 129439103 0.235 19430.313 44000 01 0.000 0.223 0.284 0.376 OK
TEAM TOTALS 383410 22 47 0.294

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dustin MayStarter 1265.54.67 1.3138.260 5.270025109 5.2 5 0
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 2927.73.90 1.22710.131 0.12220018 0.1 0 2
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 2922.64.38 1.59311.529 1.01002124 1.0 1 0
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 2822.63.58 1.3729.223 1.00000113 1.0 1 0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Freddy PeraltaStarter 1369.93.73 1.3599.574 5.23114497 5.2 4 1
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 2319.65.05 1.48015.233 1.00000215 1.0 2 0
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 2726.92.68 1.0419.027 1.10001017 1.1 0 0
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 2719.91.81 1.45713.129 1.00000216 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

NYM wins 2-1


Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals

TEX 32-33 (4.03 RPG / 3.82 RA)
2 - 1
KC 27-39 (3.91 RPG / 4.64 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 2-1 TARGET: TEX 2 - 1 KC (TEX) Confidence: 57.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
TEX00100000127
KC00010000013

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.333
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-101.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

KC Recent Form

Win%0.150
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff-170.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

TEX Season Quality

Record32-33
Win%0.492
Run Diff14
RD/Game0.215

KC Season Quality

Record27-39
Win%0.409
Run Diff-48
RD/Game-0.727

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0675; margin adjustment: -0.4483; applied: True

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc PedersonDH 166499129 0.259 25680.361 54211 11 0.500 0.187 0.284 0.362 OK
Corey SeagerSS 184688126 0.183 33910.293 54111 11 0.250 0.178 0.267 0.354 OK
Josh Jung3B 216839257 0.306 28990.364 55000 01 0.000 0.307 0.356 0.494 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 244964251 0.260 29930.343 43100 11 0.333 0.217 0.287 0.356 OK
Wyatt LangfordLF 8736288 0.243 4180.277 42100 10 0.500 0.235 0.289 0.406 OK
Ezequiel Duran2B 173605184 0.304 141130.359 44000 02 0.000 0.229 0.296 0.370 OK
Jake Burger1B 224863204 0.236 381490.288 44100 01 0.250 0.229 0.287 0.367 OK
Evan CarterCF 200641118 0.184 25700.300 44100 01 0.250 0.145 0.248 0.255 OK
Kyle HigashiokaC 9732966 0.201 12350.287 44000 02 0.000 0.206 0.290 0.339 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39347 22 410 0.206

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carter JensenC 195672154 0.229 251060.314 44000 03 0.000 0.195 0.262 0.355 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 2531015291 0.287 401130.356 44100 01 0.250 0.244 0.323 0.387 OK
Maikel Garcia3B 239985282 0.286 141020.337 44111 01 0.250 0.269 0.326 0.376 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 237894178 0.199 241110.296 33000 01 0.000 0.238 0.325 0.384 OK
Salvador PerezDH 229884195 0.221 421120.273 33000 01 0.000 0.194 0.235 0.303 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 188654147 0.225 19440.302 33000 01 0.000 0.195 0.278 0.317 OK
Michael Massey2B 12339095 0.244 13530.260 33000 01 0.000 0.201 0.224 0.368 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 187614137 0.223 11710.352 33000 00 0.000 0.202 0.336 0.281 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 160522136 0.261 11420.311 33100 01 0.333 0.210 0.250 0.301 OK
TEAM TOTALS 30303 11 010 0.100

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nathan EovaldiStarter 1274.24.12 1.1869.074 6.12110794 6.1 7 1
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 2227.60.98 0.5079.529 1.1000014 1.1 1 0
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 2325.51.76 0.8246.017 1.0000016 1.0 1 0
Tyler AlexanderMiddle Reliever 2822.83.55 1.6238.321 0.11000114 0.1 1 0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Stephen KolekStarter 637.33.38 0.9926.527 6.141146113 6.1 6 1
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 2522.65.18 1.8588.421 1.00000118 1.0 1 0
Matt StrahmMiddle Reliever 2018.44.40 1.2508.317 1.01000216 1.0 2 0
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 2623.31.93 1.07311.229 0.21000116 0.2 1 0
John SchreiberMiddle Reliever 2821.63.33 1.4816.716 0.01110010 0.0 0 1

Game Summary

TEX wins 2-1


Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants

WAS 34-33 (5.31 RPG / 5.24 RA)
5 - 4
SF 27-40 (4.1 RPG / 4.84 RA)
WINNER: WAS wins 5-4 TARGET: WAS 5 - 3 SF (WAS) Confidence: 57.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
WAS220100000511
SF02001000146

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.270
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-147.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

SF Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff-157.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

WAS Season Quality

Record33-33
Win%0.500
Run Diff4
RD/Game0.061

SF Season Quality

Record27-39
Win%0.409
Run Diff-48
RD/Game-0.727

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9242; margin adjustment: -0.3882; applied: True

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 2761062305 0.287 771950.429 53111 20 0.333 0.254 0.391 0.495 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 183680189 0.278 231300.299 54100 10 0.250 0.204 0.234 0.431 OK
Jose FernandezDH 000 0.000 000.000 55211 00 0.400 0.232 0.274 0.322
CJ AbramsSS 248943281 0.298 502100.388 55211 02 0.400 0.274 0.349 0.515 OK
Daylen LileLF 2561053268 0.255 331280.311 55311 01 0.600 0.247 0.299 0.397 OK
Jorbit Vivas3B 12537495 0.254 4240.341 52011 20 0.000 0.226 0.301 0.338 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 197674132 0.196 0650.296 54100 11 0.250 0.234 0.308 0.279 OK
Drew MillasC 10233962 0.183 5290.269 55000 01 0.000 0.208 0.284 0.320 OK
Jacob YoungCF 200749175 0.234 25930.286 55100 01 0.200 0.211 0.250 0.337 OK
TEAM TOTALS 453811 55 66 0.289

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Casey SchmittLF 205818249 0.304 541390.346 55000 00 0.000 0.278 0.296 0.540 OK
Rafael Devers1B 239933234 0.251 301270.300 54211 10 0.500 0.223 0.284 0.399 OK
Luis Arraez2B 236962324 0.337 101020.378 54000 11 0.000 0.307 0.341 0.416 OK
Willy AdamesSS 2421014256 0.252 34970.287 41000 30 0.000 0.232 0.277 0.471 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 204804243 0.302 12780.345 44000 02 0.000 0.363 0.388 0.482 OK
Bryce EldridgeDH 6120246 0.228 5100.308 44112 01 0.250 0.281 0.351 0.413 OK
Matt Chapman3B 238909209 0.230 8940.321 43000 11 0.000 0.307 0.382 0.520 OK
Daniel SusacC 5920969 0.330 0380.387 44110 02 0.250 0.206 0.263 0.315 OK
Jonah CoxCF 6104 0.400 120.400 44211 01 0.500 0.130 0.144 0.295 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39336 44 68 0.182

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew AlvarezStarter 619.43.71 1.28910.222 5.04334391 5.0 3 3
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 1716.74.31 1.4979.718 1.00001219 1.0 2 0
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 1937.32.65 1.0728.234 1.10000029 1.1 0 0
Orlando RibaltaMiddle Reliever 1716.41.65 1.0377.113 1.00000117 1.0 1 0
Richard LoveladyMiddle Reliever 2016.43.29 2.1349.918 0.22111218 0.2 2 1

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Adrian HouserStarter 1257.45.80 1.6726.340 4.294433100 4.2 3 4
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 2825.73.85 1.36211.232 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 2928.13.52 1.0688.326 1.10000118 1.1 1 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 2216.34.42 1.84014.927 1.01001220 1.0 2 0
Sam HentgesMiddle Reliever 106.82.65 2.20613.210 0.20001017 0.2 0 0
Tristan BeckMiddle Reliever 56.010.50 2.1673.02 0.11111025 0.1 0 1

Game Summary

WAS wins 5-4